1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,760 Speaker 1: Politicians go to Taiwan all the time, and it's just 2 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:05,000 Speaker 1: it's you don't even hear about it because it's not 3 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: a thing. But all of a sudden, when the story 4 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:10,640 Speaker 1: that normally you wouldn't pay attention to of Nancy Pelosi 5 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: going to Taiwan, China reacted like what, no, you can't 6 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 1: do that. Oh my god, this means war. And everybody's like, 7 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:20,240 Speaker 1: what are you talking about? But well, right, and our 8 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 1: instinct says there's something else going on, maybe several something 9 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: else is to discuss. Josh Rogan, global opinions columnists for 10 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 1: The Washington Post, joins us. Josh is the author of 11 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 1: the excellent Chaos Under Heaven Trump she in the Battle 12 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 1: for the twenty one century. Josh, welcome, always great to talk. 13 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 1: How are you glad to be back? In? Your instinct 14 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:41,559 Speaker 1: is right, there is more going on. Okay, Well tell 15 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: us what it is. Well, you know, it's sometimes these 16 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: things just come down to politicians and their egos. Okay. 17 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: And here you have Nancy Pelosi, who's about to be, 18 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,639 Speaker 1: you know, displaced as Speaker of the House, likely she's 19 00:00:56,640 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: going to retire, right, and she sees this off to 20 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: Taiwan is the capstone of what of her self proclaimed 21 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: career as a leader in U S China relations. So 22 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 1: for her, this is a legacy item. That's why she 23 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: can't delay it. That's so she went to Tanneman Square 24 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: in and she sees this as the other bookend. So 25 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: she's building a legacy item. But the guys in the 26 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 1: Wine they don't care about that. Why do they care 27 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: about Nancy Pelosi's legacy trip her? It's essentially a vanity trip. 28 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:31,559 Speaker 1: They think she's self promoting what she is. And for them, 29 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 1: right now, they're trying to ramp down tensions in US 30 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: China relations for whatever reason, that's their chess move. They're 31 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: playing a chess game, their moves to ramp down tensions, 32 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 1: and she's ramping them up. And they're like, hey, can 33 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: you not, you know, mess with our strategy please? Uh 34 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 1: because maybe nobody ever asked you to do that, And 35 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 1: she's like, no, I don't care what you say. So 36 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: in the end, you've got these these you know, old 37 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: politicians Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi frankly, who are stubborn 38 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: and neither one of them wants to give in. And 39 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: then when the funny part is that this was all 40 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: being negotiated behind the scenes, very quietly for weeks. By 41 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 1: the way, weeks they were trying to convince her, they're 42 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 1: pleading with her, showing her military operations that would be 43 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 1: necessary intelligence assessments. The story league, and someone asked Biden 44 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:23,239 Speaker 1: about it, and he confirmed it, and all of a sudden, 45 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: the quiet negotiations were over because he blurted it on 46 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 1: in the public and he made it even worse because 47 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:32,959 Speaker 1: then the Chinese really overreacted. And now Fannancy because he 48 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: doesn't want to look like she's backing down, So now 49 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: she kind of has to go, oh, wow, you you 50 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: mentioned the age of the participants. Of course, Nancy and 51 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: her husband benefited from the opium Wars, and that's where 52 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: they really made their money. So at the same time, 53 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: though with all due respect of that, which I find 54 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: oddly hilarious, um, the idea that the Chinese would well, okay, 55 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:54,959 Speaker 1: that's that's good to know. But the idea that the 56 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: Chinese would get a veto power over any American going 57 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: to Taiwan is utterly galling right, And that's the principle 58 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 1: that's important to uphold here. Now, what's funny about that 59 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 1: is that you know from the what the White House 60 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: guys says, and they're like, listen, we know that the 61 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: Chinese always pitch in bone, and we're not saying that 62 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 1: we should give in, but what we're saying is, according 63 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 1: to our intelligence, they believe that policy is going, you know, 64 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: with the President's support. They can't understand our system that 65 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 1: like the President of the United States can't control the 66 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 1: Speaker of the House of his own party. She would 67 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 1: go and tell him to go screw himself. Like in 68 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: their system, if you sure by the president you did, 69 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: you're gone. You're breaking rocks for twenty years. Your whole 70 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 1: family is finished forever. So they can't they don't believe 71 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: the bidens when they say no, no, no, we can't 72 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: control Nancy Pelosi and she she just got have to 73 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: lump it. So they think it's an escalation, which is 74 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: like again the opposite of what they're trying to signal. 75 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: And then you know when and then once they sort 76 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 1: of realized that our system was so sort of dysfunctional 77 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 1: and they started to believe, they're like, oh, now we'll 78 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: double down and get even nastier and meaner and threatening 79 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: her more. And so I mean, there I think, yeah, 80 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: of course we can't back down to Chinese bullying, but 81 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: we have to also understand that the reason that there's 82 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: a risk is because they don't believe anything that we say. 83 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 1: We don't believe anything that they say. And Nancy Plussy 84 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: is just sort of injecting herself into that situation without 85 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: regard for much of that because again that's she wants 86 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 1: to do what she wants to do, and I was 87 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 1: gonna tell her what not to do, and so the 88 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: people were stuck really in the middle of the time 89 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: when he's of course, because you know, like for Hume said, 90 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 1: it's not very unlikely that the Chinese is gonna start 91 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 1: World War three over this, right, They're not gonna attack us. 92 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 1: What they do is they attack the weaker party that's 93 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:36,840 Speaker 1: Taiwan needs. So when she leaves, you know, and they 94 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: impost some sort of new economic or military aggression on Taiwan. Uh. 95 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: She's writing the check, but they're paying the bill. So 96 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 1: do we know what the great chess game is that 97 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 1: the White House is playing. I'm surprised to see the 98 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense yesterday Mr Austin also making noises about 99 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,280 Speaker 1: this isn't exactly the best timing form. I mean, so, 100 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 1: what what do we have going on? What's in the works. Well, 101 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 1: President Biden and General Secretary shi Jingping are on the 102 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: phone right now. I mean it's a video conference, but 103 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: they're literally talking as we speak, okay, And that's what 104 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: that's the that's what they're trying to do. They're trying 105 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: to regularize the relationships so that we could at least 106 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 1: talk to one another. And what they stay is the 107 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: Biden people, the White House people anyway, where they say 108 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 1: is listen, this relationship is going down okay fast, not 109 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 1: because we want it too, but because the Chinese Communist 110 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 1: Party it's getting worse. They're getting more aggressive, more repressive, 111 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: more expansionist, nastier, meaner, acting more like ansters every day. 112 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: I think the White House gets that right. But what 113 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: they're what they're saying is that we're not we want 114 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: to sort of prepare for this struggle carefully. We want 115 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: to do it, you know, we don't want to spark 116 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: crisis unnecessarily. And when we do have a crisis, we 117 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 1: want it to be on our terms, not on Nancy 118 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 1: Pelosi's terms. So they're just trying to keep things copathetic, 119 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: and she's messing with that plan. Now. Overall, do I 120 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 1: think that the Biden administration is doing enough to confront 121 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 1: the Chinese Comments Party? No, but you could understand, just 122 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 1: sort of from an intellectual standpoint, why on one particular 123 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: day they might not want Nancy Pelosi to start a 124 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: crisis because they're not ready for that. Josh Rogan, global 125 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 1: opinions columnist for the Washington Post on the line, I 126 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 1: believe we have live feed of the video conference right now, 127 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 1: Mr President, you're on mute. Uh the little picture of 128 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: the microphone, sir, no touch it that that, No, just 129 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: touch it once, sir, you're still on mute. So more 130 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: more seriously, Josh, one factor we haven't yet discussed is 131 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: the upcoming coronation of j and Ping Is is a 132 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:43,599 Speaker 1: third term leader of slash President for life, with the 133 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: economy faltering, the COVID not going away. Um, I understand. 134 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: One factor is we don't want to give him an 135 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 1: excuse for acting like the hardass nationalist to rally support 136 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 1: behind him. Right. Well, the two things you've got that 137 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 1: relates to what you just said. One is that you know, 138 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: we've got this whole region full of countries and right 139 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:07,720 Speaker 1: we don't want to give him, like any plausible story 140 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: as to to claim that we're the aggressives instead of him, 141 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 1: and even if it's not true, we don't want to 142 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: give him that chance. But the other thing is that, 143 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: like you know, what the White House guys will say 144 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: is listen, in these few months, it's pretty dicey before 145 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: Jun Thing gets coronated for his third term, because he's 146 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 1: under the microscope blah blah blah. And that presumes something 147 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: which I don't think it is true, which is that 148 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: after he gets a third term, it's gonna be better. 149 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 1: My assumption is that once he becomes dictator for life 150 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: like a Putin or an MBS or Kim Jong un right, 151 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: he's actually gonna get worse. He's gonna get nastier. That's 152 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: what happens with you know, psychopathic dictators. Their appetite grows 153 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: with the eating. And so I don't think there's ever 154 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 1: gonna be a good time for Nancy Pelosi to go 155 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 1: to Taiwan where they're not gonna do some threatened to 156 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: do some crazy stuff. That's why I think you might 157 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: as well go now, because I don't think it's gonna 158 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 1: get better later this year. Um. But you know, that's 159 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: the situation we're in. The Chinese Communist Party is becoming 160 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: a totalitarian state, almost a fascist state, and that we're 161 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 1: all gonna have to do. Is well, that sounds awfully 162 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 1: damned if you do, and damned if you don't. It 163 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: is because what I was trying to express is that 164 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 1: j and Ping has to have a justification for being 165 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: recordnated and with the other stuff floundering. If being the 166 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 1: brave military hero against the West is an excuse, he's 167 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: looking for somebody to punch in the face. And we'd 168 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 1: prefer not to give him that excuse for all sorts 169 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 1: of different reasons. But uh, yeah, yeah, no, I think 170 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 1: that's true. But I think he's gonna get coordinated one 171 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 1: way or the other, and he's gonna get nasty or 172 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: one way or the other. And if we look at China, 173 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: would look at that zero COVID stuff. I mean, it's crazy, 174 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 1: either killing their own economy, they're putting millions of people 175 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: into quarantine for two cases of like the you know, 176 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 1: the the various don't even work that way anymore. But 177 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: they can't change that. No one can tell the dear 178 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 1: leader that he's wrong. That's what's so scared worry about 179 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 1: it is it doesn't doesn't need any more boogeyman, he 180 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: doesn't need any more excuses. He's he's done it. He's 181 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: he's assumed total power. And absolute power corrupts absolutely, and 182 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: that's why China is a big threat. But it's also 183 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:15,199 Speaker 1: why we can't say that China is going to be 184 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 1: the greatest country in the world, because all of those 185 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,200 Speaker 1: systems are essentially corrupt and rotten at the core. Well, 186 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 1: that's actually good news for us. Um uh the yeah, 187 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: double edged swords certainly. Um So the final on this 188 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 1: from you, do you think she one has to go 189 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: and will go? Yeah? I mean I don't know. I 190 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 1: think if I had to put money on it, yeah, 191 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 1: I think she's gonna go because she's going to Soul, 192 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 1: She's going to Tokyo. So now she doesn't go, everybody 193 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:43,439 Speaker 1: will know she backed down. And you know what the 194 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 1: White House says is, oh, just go after the election. 195 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 1: It be fine after the election, but she won't. She'll 196 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: be speaker, but should be a lame duck. It won't 197 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: be the same thing. And I don't think she wants 198 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: to take that chance. So you know, if you know 199 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 1: I think at the end of next week Nancy posting 200 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: in a delegation in Atlanta, Taiwan, And like I said, 201 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: the Chinese are just gonna have to lump it. And 202 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: you know, if fiddlet you know, if they do do 203 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 1: something really crazy and provocative, then the Biden administrations should 204 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: support Pelosi, not the Chinese. Yeah, and you know, and 205 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:12,840 Speaker 1: if they do something crazy, that was if they do 206 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: something crazy that was gonna happen over something else. I mean, 207 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 1: if they're willing to go to war over Nancy Pelosi 208 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:21,199 Speaker 1: visiting Taiwan, which is a completely normal thing to do, well, 209 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: then there's something else was gonna happen anyway. And when 210 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 1: the CCP challenges are resolved, what we should do is 211 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 1: we should show resolved. How about that? Amen to that, brother, 212 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 1: Josh Rogan of the Washington Post. You should read them. 213 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 1: Is the most recent pieces posted at Armstrong and getty 214 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 1: dot com. Josh, we always appreciate the time well done anytime. 215 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: I love how fired up he is about this topic 216 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:46,679 Speaker 1: because everybody should be are strong and