WEBVTT - Stocks, CVS, Tech Deals, and Cybersecurity (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

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<v Speaker 1>you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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<v Speaker 1>with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. We have a in

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<v Speaker 1>our studio today, met a Bloomberg alumn coming back. Kelly

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<v Speaker 1>Cox joins this year US investment analysts at E Touro

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<v Speaker 1>and a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina

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<v Speaker 1>at Chapel Hill. That's okay, we'll allow her in the

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<v Speaker 1>studio here. Callis have you back? Oh yeah, We're back

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<v Speaker 1>and forth and all about it before. But it's so

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<v Speaker 1>great to be here. And I'll put that aside with

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<v Speaker 1>good stuff. I tell you, last year was so bad. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And I know I follow you on Twitter closely. I

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<v Speaker 1>know you make all the historical analogies and analyzes. What

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<v Speaker 1>are you kind of telling? What are you what are

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<v Speaker 1>you telling your clients for about? Can we kind of

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<v Speaker 1>regroup here? Well? Hopefully for our own c entity? Um?

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<v Speaker 1>WELLO was painful. I mean no doubt about that anyway

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<v Speaker 1>you slice it. We're still in a challenging environment. Rates

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<v Speaker 1>are still high, quite high. The FED doesn't seem to

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<v Speaker 1>be backing off too much, and chances are they won't

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<v Speaker 1>back off unless we hit a recession, and obviously nobody

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<v Speaker 1>wants that. That's the worst case scenario. So we're hoping

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<v Speaker 1>we can avoid a recession right now. So far, so good.

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<v Speaker 1>But if we do avoid a recession, we're just cautioning

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<v Speaker 1>people against the fact that we are in a high

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<v Speaker 1>rate environment and that's still a challenging operating environment for companies.

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<v Speaker 1>So I don't think we're there yet, but we're getting closer. So,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's a relatively high rate environment. But we've

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<v Speaker 1>heard a couple of people say we're getting back to

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<v Speaker 1>basics in terms of investing UM. People like bonds again

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<v Speaker 1>after the horrible year of UM. Jeremy Siegel thinks it's

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<v Speaker 1>the decade for dividends, which is kind of cool. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you're no longer going to get meme stocks, these crazy

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<v Speaker 1>home runs, get rich off of nothing with your stimmies.

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<v Speaker 1>But maybe you know, with dedicated a savings plan and investments,

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<v Speaker 1>you can you know, grow UM your wealth with income

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<v Speaker 1>and reinvestments. What do you think, Well, I think you're right, Matt.

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<v Speaker 1>I think investors have been forced to shift their mindsets

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<v Speaker 1>towards what's working now and how they can make money

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<v Speaker 1>now because yields are just so healthy and stocks and

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<v Speaker 1>other risk assets just aren't working. And I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>a healthy balance, right, Like you have to have a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of growth, a little bit of both, excuse me.

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<v Speaker 1>But at the same time, you know, we kind of

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<v Speaker 1>got too far on the growth side of the equation

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<v Speaker 1>and we're coming back, you know. I think it's really important.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, investors are learning a lot of lessons right now,

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<v Speaker 1>but they're also being forced to pay attention to the

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<v Speaker 1>financial strength of companies that they invest in, and companies

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<v Speaker 1>that actually rise and fault with the economy. That some

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<v Speaker 1>are even economically resistant, the more defensive stocks. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's a good shift back, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to teach, you know, retail investors in general

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<v Speaker 1>a lot about how markets work. So what are some

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<v Speaker 1>of the sectors you like here? Um, I mean there's

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<v Speaker 1>something to choose. Some are to belief from a evaluation perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>um that we're beaten down where you kind of taught

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<v Speaker 1>tongue your client to start doing some work. So I'm

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<v Speaker 1>generally a cup have full person, I said a few

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<v Speaker 1>minutes ago. It's a challenging environment, but I'm also looking

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<v Speaker 1>to the fact that you know, we know a bowl

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<v Speaker 1>market is after this. We don't know how we get there,

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<v Speaker 1>but we know that cycles exist in the stock market,

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<v Speaker 1>and we will eventually get back into that bowl, even

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<v Speaker 1>if it is painful from here until now. So we're hoping,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, by one step or another, we get there soon.

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<v Speaker 1>And our customers are longer term. Retail investors are longer

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<v Speaker 1>term investors, so we're encouraging them to sew their seeds

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<v Speaker 1>for the next bull market because eventually we see inflation slowing.

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<v Speaker 1>The Feed is committing to get committed to get rates down,

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, we think it's time to prepare for that. Wait,

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<v Speaker 1>why do you mean the FED is committed to get

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<v Speaker 1>rates down? I mean inflation, Okay, But the thing is

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<v Speaker 1>in the FED might not need to cut if we

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<v Speaker 1>don't have a recession, if we get this soft landing

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<v Speaker 1>that Over the past few days more people have been

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<v Speaker 1>optimistic about um the FED could hold at five or

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<v Speaker 1>five and a quarter depending on where they get right.

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<v Speaker 1>But we're in a restrictive environment right now. The FED

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<v Speaker 1>has said that, so eventually they're hoping to get rates

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<v Speaker 1>back down and get inflation back down. Their target is

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<v Speaker 1>two percent so for inflation correct. So we're trying to

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<v Speaker 1>get back to that low inflation environment, and we think

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<v Speaker 1>that low rates would come after that. So if you're

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<v Speaker 1>a long term investor, it's a great environment to prepare

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<v Speaker 1>for what's coming next and maybe you know, load up

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<v Speaker 1>on those cyclicals in the case that we don't hit

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<v Speaker 1>that recession. Of course, be guarded here, you know, look

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<v Speaker 1>at a barbell, look at you know, possibly hedging your positions.

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<v Speaker 1>But we're down about from the highs, and we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of value in the financials, the industrials, the

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<v Speaker 1>more cyclical stocks, So you know, why not take a

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<v Speaker 1>look the balanced portfolio that's sixty forty portfolio that a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of folks grew up on that did not work

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<v Speaker 1>last year with fixed income pretty much across the board

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<v Speaker 1>down double digits. UM. I don't im an equity person.

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<v Speaker 1>When I see people tell me we have historic declines

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<v Speaker 1>in fixed income in I'm just naturally calling up my

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<v Speaker 1>advisors and let's just buy some bonds. What are you

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<v Speaker 1>kind of thinking about the fixed income space this year? Well, Paul,

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<v Speaker 1>that's smart. I think a lot of financial advisors are

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<v Speaker 1>telling their clients to do that. Uh, yeah, you're right.

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<v Speaker 1>We saw a pretty unprecedented year when it came to

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<v Speaker 1>stock and bond of clients. And I think that's why

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<v Speaker 1>it was so painful, because it felt like nothing worked. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, usually when stocks fall, bonds compensate for it,

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<v Speaker 1>and that just didn't happen. Uh. And we think as

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<v Speaker 1>we had into a recession obviously, or we don't know

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<v Speaker 1>if a recession is coming. Excuse me, but you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if we had into a recession, we could see people

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<v Speaker 1>lean more on bonds for their safety. You know, we're

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<v Speaker 1>already seeing that too with the tenure coming down from

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<v Speaker 1>about four point five percent to three point five percent. So,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, never say never. We don't know what happens

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<v Speaker 1>in the future. I don't have a crystal ball, but

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<v Speaker 1>you'd think that there there would have to be some

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<v Speaker 1>balance coming back out there. In terms of valuations. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I look at this stock market and think we're still

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<v Speaker 1>not looking at cheap stocks, right, Um, in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>the broader market, we're still looking at seventeen times earnings,

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<v Speaker 1>so or or eighteen times earnings. So where do you

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<v Speaker 1>think we need to go before you start putting your

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<v Speaker 1>money to work in a in a hefty way. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>if you think about it, seventeen or eighteen times earnings

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<v Speaker 1>is about average for what we've seen over the past decade.

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<v Speaker 1>And this past decade has not been average. I'll give you.

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<v Speaker 1>I was going to say it's a zero inters rate decade,

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<v Speaker 1>but yeah, correct, correct, Like there's context there. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's also important to remember that there are there's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of dispersion insectors. UM tech does look expensive still,

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<v Speaker 1>um some cyclicals do look a little bit cheaper. I

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<v Speaker 1>thought it was interesting, you know that the stocks that

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<v Speaker 1>actually did really well last year, the industrials of the world,

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<v Speaker 1>the materials of the world, are still attractively valued when

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<v Speaker 1>you look at their price to free cash flow. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think that there's still a little bit of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>rebalancing that needs to be done there. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>at the same time, I wouldn't be talked to see

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<v Speaker 1>the market accept evaluation here except the current valuations here.

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<v Speaker 1>If we don't fall into a recession. Yeah, that's one

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<v Speaker 1>of the things we're speaking with Kylie Cox, us investment

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<v Speaker 1>analyst at tro the question about evaluation. You kind of

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<v Speaker 1>have to talk about earnings as we get to kick

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<v Speaker 1>off another earning season at the end of this week

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<v Speaker 1>with some of the big banks UM people calling out

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<v Speaker 1>earnings risk as a material risk to this market here

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<v Speaker 1>that estimates have not come down enough. Um, how do

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<v Speaker 1>you think about that? So earnings for us are the

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<v Speaker 1>determinant one of the things we're watching as we question

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<v Speaker 1>if we're heading into a recession, because typically you see

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<v Speaker 1>earnings fall about s ANDP earnings I'm talking fall about

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<v Speaker 1>during recession. That's the average of all recessions we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>since nineteen fifty. Right now, it looks like earnings could

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<v Speaker 1>drop about you know, two to five in the fourth quarter,

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<v Speaker 1>or you know, we're talking backwards, so they could have

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<v Speaker 1>dropped two to four percent in the fourth quarter. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>that's nowhere nearer recession. That doesn't look like a bad

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<v Speaker 1>hit to us yet. So we're watching earnings to judge

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<v Speaker 1>the degree of this pullback, if you know, if it

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<v Speaker 1>falls into recessionary territory and if it justifies stocks possibly

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<v Speaker 1>finding the bottom again. Um, And we think earnings are

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<v Speaker 1>the thing to watch. Obviously the job market, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>the job market has the leading indicators that we're not

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<v Speaker 1>seeing a ton of weakness and yet, but earnings will

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately tell us I think where it settled out here,

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<v Speaker 1>and right now, we think the market has priced in

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<v Speaker 1>a slight earnings pullback and that's what we're seeing. That's

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<v Speaker 1>that's the kind of argument to there's there's earnings risk

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<v Speaker 1>out there. The kind of argument is that the markets

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<v Speaker 1>price that in already. Yeah, I just don't know. I

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<v Speaker 1>have no idea, But I think once we get past

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<v Speaker 1>this cycle, I'm like, all right, I'm done with the

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<v Speaker 1>earnings risk story. But you mean once we get pastor

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<v Speaker 1>well this this next quarter, oh, I see Q four.

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<v Speaker 1>So once we get you know, basically Friday's big bank earnings.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, how much does that matter to you when

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<v Speaker 1>when we when we see the numbers on Friday, how

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<v Speaker 1>closely we need pay attention because they're like six or

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<v Speaker 1>seven big banks reporting on Friday. Well, big banks are

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<v Speaker 1>the forefront of the economy. I think you need to

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<v Speaker 1>pay attention to them. We've heard a lot of cautious

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<v Speaker 1>rhetoric coming out of the banks, but overall their earnings

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<v Speaker 1>have been decent. They've been surprising to the upside. I

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<v Speaker 1>was actually parsing through earnings data last night, and I

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<v Speaker 1>thought it was interesting that a lot of services sectors

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<v Speaker 1>are expected to see the bigger earnings hit in this

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<v Speaker 1>quarter in subsequent quarters, which is interesting if you think

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<v Speaker 1>about it, because the balance that we saw last year

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<v Speaker 1>was a lot of services spending less good spending. So

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<v Speaker 1>coming into this earning season, I'm going to be watching

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<v Speaker 1>the services sectors. You know, banks fall into that, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>they're very consumer oriented. Um. You know, the more software

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<v Speaker 1>companies fall into that because I just travel, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>because I just don't think that there has been enough

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<v Speaker 1>pessimism priced in there and the commentary is gonna matter. Yep,

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<v Speaker 1>Absolutely forward guidance, all that good stuff. Kelly Cox us

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<v Speaker 1>investment analysts for Etorro, joining us live here in the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio, U n C grad former reporter

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg's Analysts at four or five shops, and now

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<v Speaker 1>she's got her at E Touro based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks so much for joining us in studio. So that's

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<v Speaker 1>it for me, Met on the earning stress story. Once

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<v Speaker 1>we get past the next three or four weeks, I

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<v Speaker 1>got all my guidance for three that's it. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I think everybody's gonna give guidance that's gonna assume a

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<v Speaker 1>modest kind of slowdown slash recession. And then, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like we could get a kitchen sync quarter

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<v Speaker 1>because because of because the recession was such a huge worry,

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<v Speaker 1>especially a couple of weeks ago. You know, people have

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<v Speaker 1>gotten more optimistic recently, but the work has been done

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<v Speaker 1>on the earnings reports, and I feel like a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of CEOs will say I'm throwing everything at this quarter.

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<v Speaker 1>We have a CEO in the studio with us. Wendy

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<v Speaker 1>Thomas joins us. She runs Secure Works NASDAC ticker s

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<v Speaker 1>c w X. They are security as a service company, right,

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<v Speaker 1>Wendy tell us a brief history of Secure Works and

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<v Speaker 1>what you're doing. Sure, So, Securic has been through an

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<v Speaker 1>important transformation to a security sas platform to really address

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<v Speaker 1>the challenges we've seen in security over the last twenty

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<v Speaker 1>plus years. So we were founded as a security services

0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:16.600
<v Speaker 1>organization and then looking to address security challenges largely with

0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:20.520
<v Speaker 1>very expert security folks. But what we found is that

0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:24.680
<v Speaker 1>that we needed a new technology, machine learning AI approach

0:11:24.760 --> 0:11:27.800
<v Speaker 1>to solving securities challenges, and that's what we launched a

0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:30.600
<v Speaker 1>few years ago, the TAGES platform, and so our business

0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:33.720
<v Speaker 1>model has been in a pretty significant transition to addressing

0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:35.440
<v Speaker 1>security through that plant. So what do you expect in

0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:38.080
<v Speaker 1>three As you know, Paul and I talked to so

0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:41.679
<v Speaker 1>many people who say to us that cybersecurity is one

0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:43.520
<v Speaker 1>of the number one issues, one of the number one

0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:46.960
<v Speaker 1>threats facing companies, And of course we report on so

0:11:47.080 --> 0:11:50.559
<v Speaker 1>many hacks and thefts and data leaks over the past,

0:11:50.679 --> 0:11:52.640
<v Speaker 1>not just this year, but over the past five or

0:11:52.679 --> 0:11:56.760
<v Speaker 1>six or seven years. UM, how does the growth look

0:11:56.800 --> 0:12:00.959
<v Speaker 1>to you from from this transition vantage point? Sure? I

0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:04.040
<v Speaker 1>mean our growth has been outsized in comparison to the

0:12:04.080 --> 0:12:07.640
<v Speaker 1>market in terms of our tageous XDR platform. What what

0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:10.320
<v Speaker 1>I see more generally in the security space, Clearly there's

0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:13.760
<v Speaker 1>a broader economic backdrop right now in terms of pressure,

0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:18.360
<v Speaker 1>but security is simply something that companies cannot just dispense with.

0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:21.640
<v Speaker 1>What I see right now is that companies have an

0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:26.040
<v Speaker 1>opportunity with with the type of technology that TAGES brings

0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:28.720
<v Speaker 1>to actually reduce their total security spend, kind of like

0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:31.040
<v Speaker 1>you didn't need a you'll need a separate camera from

0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.000
<v Speaker 1>your phone or separate GPS device from your phone. You

0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:36.440
<v Speaker 1>can consolidate your security spend into a platform approach to

0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:40.520
<v Speaker 1>save money and get a better security posture. Broadly, speaking

0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:43.080
<v Speaker 1>with the clients, do you deal with Wendy, what percentage

0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:47.160
<v Speaker 1>of their tech spend every every year is cybersecurity versus

0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:50.439
<v Speaker 1>maybe just hardware upgrades of software upgrades. Yeah, it's a

0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:52.679
<v Speaker 1>great question because rules of thumb are really important when

0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:54.480
<v Speaker 1>you're trying to look at your spend, and there's a

0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:57.199
<v Speaker 1>couple of I would look at depending on your industry,

0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:00.559
<v Speaker 1>somewhere between four and as much as ten percent of

0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:03.880
<v Speaker 1>your total I T spend is generally on security. That's

0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:06.760
<v Speaker 1>what that's what good looks like. If you want to

0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:11.679
<v Speaker 1>translate that into employees on average, we see see organizations,

0:13:11.760 --> 0:13:14.040
<v Speaker 1>not the largest organizations, but you know, your small medium

0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:18.080
<v Speaker 1>businesses six hundred dollars per employee on average for a year,

0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:22.319
<v Speaker 1>but can be as much as again depending on your

0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:26.680
<v Speaker 1>business model and your I T estate. So um, we

0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:29.839
<v Speaker 1>have heard kind of conflicting reports in terms of I

0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:32.520
<v Speaker 1>T spending plans. For the most part, it seems that

0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:35.200
<v Speaker 1>people are gonna pull back on I T spending. But

0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:38.000
<v Speaker 1>we were talking with Honora Rata Rata and man Deep

0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:43.120
<v Speaker 1>Sing yesterday from Business Bloomberg Intelligence, and they were saying

0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:45.840
<v Speaker 1>that in some places, for instance, in cloud, you're gonna

0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:48.960
<v Speaker 1>see an increase in spending three. I feel like, if

0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:50.839
<v Speaker 1>you're going to increase your cloud spend, you've got to

0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:53.480
<v Speaker 1>be boosting your security spend as well. Is that wrong? No?

0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:56.640
<v Speaker 1>I think the mix of spend is absolutely shifting. So

0:13:56.679 --> 0:13:58.440
<v Speaker 1>it may be that the total is under pressure, but

0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:01.160
<v Speaker 1>the mix to get the yield in terms of automation

0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:04.600
<v Speaker 1>for your business and flexibility UH is going to go

0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:07.559
<v Speaker 1>up in areas like cloud and security. So we continue

0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:12.760
<v Speaker 1>to see security spend um increasing year over year. I

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:16.320
<v Speaker 1>think the question is where's the opportunity to make a

0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 1>step function change in your security investments to again get

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:24.240
<v Speaker 1>your get your security posture much higher relative to the

0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:26.680
<v Speaker 1>breaches we continue to see in the marketplace. So for

0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:31.080
<v Speaker 1>secure works, what's your typical customer and what's their typical

0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:33.680
<v Speaker 1>need that you're trying to kind of meet for them?

0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:38.600
<v Speaker 1>Sure that the typical customer needs UH simple security, and

0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:40.960
<v Speaker 1>they don't want to have to bring a large security

0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.480
<v Speaker 1>staff in house. They want to make sure that their

0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:45.520
<v Speaker 1>business is up and running and that they don't have

0:14:45.680 --> 0:14:48.800
<v Speaker 1>damages from breaches, and that they can ensure themselves. From

0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:52.680
<v Speaker 1>a cyber insurance perspective, we check all of those those boxes.

0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:57.040
<v Speaker 1>They as cyber insurance. We do not sell cyber insurance,

0:14:57.080 --> 0:15:01.040
<v Speaker 1>but by having a costure yes, absolutely late and in

0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:03.480
<v Speaker 1>fact it's if you've if you've read the headlines. Because

0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:06.080
<v Speaker 1>of all the breaches over the past few years, the

0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:09.040
<v Speaker 1>cyber insurance market is really contracted in terms of much

0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:13.280
<v Speaker 1>more rigorous underwriting and rising rates. So the ability to

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:17.280
<v Speaker 1>demonstrate controls around the part of your business that generates

0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.920
<v Speaker 1>your revenue or your cash flow is an important part

0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:23.880
<v Speaker 1>to being able to cost effectively ensure your organization. I see. So,

0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:27.480
<v Speaker 1>just like with car insurance, if I can demonstrate that

0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:31.080
<v Speaker 1>I have a decent security system on my vehicle, I'll

0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:34.960
<v Speaker 1>get a discount from my insure that ensure cyber insurance

0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:36.920
<v Speaker 1>is the same with businesses. They'll say, all right, if

0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:39.160
<v Speaker 1>you have secure works, we'll give you a better rate.

0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:41.520
<v Speaker 1>Show me that. And so we work with cyber insurers

0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:45.720
<v Speaker 1>around incident response as well as putting the kinds of

0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:50.120
<v Speaker 1>security controls in place that help those customers reduce that

0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.840
<v Speaker 1>that rate. Where do you think your clients are just

0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:56.760
<v Speaker 1>maybe companies in general are under investing today, and as

0:15:56.800 --> 0:16:02.240
<v Speaker 1>it relates to their cybersecurity platform, they tend to undervest

0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:04.560
<v Speaker 1>in two two areas. One, they try to go it

0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:06.920
<v Speaker 1>alone with people. That just doesn't make a lot of sense.

0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:10.360
<v Speaker 1>You can actually get more for less spend by having

0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:12.680
<v Speaker 1>an expert partner like secure works. So they try to

0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:15.560
<v Speaker 1>do it in house. Okay, they do, and it had

0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:18.480
<v Speaker 1>just given the diversity of skill sets required in security

0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:21.600
<v Speaker 1>today because you let the technology do what it does

0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:24.520
<v Speaker 1>in terms of the XDR platform, so the people who

0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:26.880
<v Speaker 1>are then working on the things that the platform can't

0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:29.840
<v Speaker 1>solved need to be much more expert. And the second

0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:33.120
<v Speaker 1>is it remains true that just the basics of security

0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:37.480
<v Speaker 1>prevention can prevent the majority of security attacks. And so

0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:39.960
<v Speaker 1>when we see the ability to have a second way

0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:43.080
<v Speaker 1>to authenticate that it is you logging into the system,

0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:45.280
<v Speaker 1>that goes a long way to preventing a large number

0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:49.080
<v Speaker 1>of the sort of commodity criminal cyber attacks. I look

0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:52.320
<v Speaker 1>at your stock tickers, s C w X on the

0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:56.720
<v Speaker 1>nasdack UM and I put it up against you know,

0:16:56.720 --> 0:17:00.640
<v Speaker 1>the NASDAC or the Russell two thousand or the Technology

0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:04.840
<v Speaker 1>index on the Russell, it looks like you've really outperformed

0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:09.720
<v Speaker 1>in booms and underperformed in busts. Uh, why do you

0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:13.240
<v Speaker 1>think that is? Why? Why are investors making more volatile,

0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:16.119
<v Speaker 1>dramatic moves with your stocks? And they are. There's to

0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:19.120
<v Speaker 1>two elements to that. One is our business model has

0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:22.800
<v Speaker 1>been in a transition from a services led organization to

0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:26.480
<v Speaker 1>a technology lead approach to security, and in the midst

0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:30.240
<v Speaker 1>of exiting some of those non strategic services, the total

0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:33.280
<v Speaker 1>top line has been under pressure, which is why we

0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:37.359
<v Speaker 1>talk about the TAGES platform and the air are associated

0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:40.359
<v Speaker 1>with that growing eighty percent year over a year, you know,

0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:43.760
<v Speaker 1>two million lesson three years after launch. So it's it's

0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:46.879
<v Speaker 1>a rapidly growing area of security and emerging market trend.

0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:50.280
<v Speaker 1>So you do need investors to look underneath the covers

0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 1>to see the opportunity in the in the valuation and

0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:56.800
<v Speaker 1>the business transition. We're gonna hit this at the end

0:17:56.840 --> 0:17:59.000
<v Speaker 1>of this year. We've said we're gonna exit probably more

0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:01.320
<v Speaker 1>than eight percent of the news on the new platform,

0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:03.960
<v Speaker 1>so the end of that time is coming. Michael Dell

0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:07.320
<v Speaker 1>is your largest shareholder, is your chairman of the board.

0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:09.919
<v Speaker 1>What's it like working from Michael Dell? He is an

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:14.040
<v Speaker 1>amazing entrepreneur. So this is an individual who understands how

0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:18.000
<v Speaker 1>to grow businesses, is invigorated around going businesses and really

0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:22.560
<v Speaker 1>going to speak to their their pain points. He is

0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:26.920
<v Speaker 1>a big supporter of the the importance of merging security

0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:29.000
<v Speaker 1>with the technology story for ce i os and not

0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:31.520
<v Speaker 1>just s sos, and sees a lot of synergies in

0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:34.639
<v Speaker 1>terms of those types of investments that must be fascinating

0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:37.639
<v Speaker 1>and and a little scary. I would think Wendy Thomas uh,

0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:41.240
<v Speaker 1>CEO and president of Secure Works public trader company s

0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:44.320
<v Speaker 1>cw X there in town speaking at the need Him conference,

0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:46.080
<v Speaker 1>which is a great conference. A lot of really cool

0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:49.280
<v Speaker 1>small mid cap tech media names are good. Friend Lauren

0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:51.840
<v Speaker 1>Martin is a big, big part of that team there

0:18:51.840 --> 0:18:54.040
<v Speaker 1>and need Him so good to see Secure Works out

0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:55.960
<v Speaker 1>in front of clients. Good to see everybody out and

0:18:56.000 --> 0:19:01.280
<v Speaker 1>about doing stuff. I want to get to the story here.

0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:06.879
<v Speaker 1>Microsoft gonna potentially invest ten billion dollars open ai and

0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:10.640
<v Speaker 1>open ai, which would give it an Open AI evaluation

0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:13.160
<v Speaker 1>about twenty nine billion dollars. So I'm going to start

0:19:13.200 --> 0:19:15.080
<v Speaker 1>with the most basic with an a Rock Rana, he's

0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:19.840
<v Speaker 1>our Bloomberg Intelligence. What is open AI? What for? For

0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:22.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, I mean Mats a lot. You know, he's

0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:24.600
<v Speaker 1>not as tex savvy as Iron, but so for mats

0:19:24.600 --> 0:19:26.439
<v Speaker 1>sake and maybe for some of our listeners, what is

0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:31.159
<v Speaker 1>open AI? So you have a number of artificial intelligence

0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:35.239
<v Speaker 1>companies that are basically building algorithms to make you know,

0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:37.479
<v Speaker 1>some kind of function good. So they have a they

0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:40.560
<v Speaker 1>have a product called chat GPT and it works like

0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:42.280
<v Speaker 1>a search function. I mean, you go and type in

0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:44.600
<v Speaker 1>and says, you know, how should I invest and will

0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:47.080
<v Speaker 1>give you a very complicated answer or a very simple

0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:49.560
<v Speaker 1>answer to any of those things. So it is it

0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:55.560
<v Speaker 1>is really products like that or anything that enhances the

0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:58.600
<v Speaker 1>insights that anybody can can can get on the data.

0:19:58.680 --> 0:20:01.080
<v Speaker 1>That's underline. So it it is a bit, it's it's

0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:03.840
<v Speaker 1>it's not as complicated as it sounds. It's practically it's

0:20:03.880 --> 0:20:08.280
<v Speaker 1>like a search box. Sounds like Watson again, but exactly,

0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:12.080
<v Speaker 1>you are absolutely right. It is like Watson. But the

0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:16.359
<v Speaker 1>results for chat GPT has been really good. And Microsoft

0:20:16.480 --> 0:20:18.439
<v Speaker 1>is already an investor. It's not as if it's not

0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:21.919
<v Speaker 1>an investor right now, UM, but it's it seems that

0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:25.120
<v Speaker 1>the company has a very high valuation and somebody might

0:20:25.160 --> 0:20:27.680
<v Speaker 1>want to take it. So a I'd like to see

0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:31.199
<v Speaker 1>chat gpt, then take on Watson on Jeopardy, Yes, and

0:20:31.280 --> 0:20:36.080
<v Speaker 1>be jing and buh what do they call it? When

0:20:36.080 --> 0:20:39.240
<v Speaker 1>it kind of like turns human? Is Is it possible

0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:42.560
<v Speaker 1>that it's going to develop its own Was it? No?

0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:45.760
<v Speaker 1>There was? There was? There was? Wasn't there a Google

0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:50.360
<v Speaker 1>UM employee who was worried that the AI they were

0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:55.960
<v Speaker 1>developing had become sentient? Do you remember that? Yeah, there's

0:20:56.000 --> 0:20:57.719
<v Speaker 1>a lot of that stories. But to remember it's not

0:20:57.800 --> 0:21:00.280
<v Speaker 1>as if, you know, Microsoft is just going to use

0:21:00.359 --> 0:21:04.000
<v Speaker 1>the chat GPT function. They're basically going to look at

0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:06.680
<v Speaker 1>the algorithms and the way this is written and then

0:21:06.720 --> 0:21:09.480
<v Speaker 1>and most likely again this is just my speculation, it's

0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:13.000
<v Speaker 1>going to be UM enhance the productivity features of a

0:21:13.000 --> 0:21:15.640
<v Speaker 1>lot of their suites that they have, you know, let's

0:21:15.680 --> 0:21:20.120
<v Speaker 1>say office suite or LinkedIn or being for search. Think

0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:22.119
<v Speaker 1>about it this way. If you are a salesperson and

0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:24.159
<v Speaker 1>you walk in every day and say, you know you

0:21:24.200 --> 0:21:26.879
<v Speaker 1>are your best bet today is to go out and

0:21:26.920 --> 0:21:30.000
<v Speaker 1>make a sales pitch to Paul because the likelihood of

0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:31.960
<v Speaker 1>him closing a deal over the next few days is

0:21:32.080 --> 0:21:34.800
<v Speaker 1>very high. And that really is what is going to

0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:38.040
<v Speaker 1>drive a lot of the next generation insights for all

0:21:38.119 --> 0:21:44.320
<v Speaker 1>software packages. All right, So Microsoft, maybe ten billion dollars,

0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:47.840
<v Speaker 1>that seems like if I'm thinking about this space, I

0:21:47.920 --> 0:21:50.119
<v Speaker 1>kind of feel like it validates the space a little bit.

0:21:50.119 --> 0:21:55.119
<v Speaker 1>Is certainly validates open AI. How do you think about it? No,

0:21:55.280 --> 0:21:57.879
<v Speaker 1>it's it is truly in that same case. And I

0:21:57.920 --> 0:22:01.160
<v Speaker 1>can tell you, you know, just like an emerging technologies,

0:22:01.240 --> 0:22:04.680
<v Speaker 1>there are probably hundreds and hundreds of new AI companies

0:22:04.720 --> 0:22:06.800
<v Speaker 1>all over the world that are trying to figure the

0:22:06.840 --> 0:22:09.400
<v Speaker 1>same thing out, you know, whether that's based on images

0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:14.720
<v Speaker 1>so image recognition, speech recognition, vision, or for that matter,

0:22:14.800 --> 0:22:19.639
<v Speaker 1>natural language processing. Almost every technology companies building some capabilities

0:22:19.880 --> 0:22:22.520
<v Speaker 1>within their product portfolio. So think of this from a

0:22:22.560 --> 0:22:25.320
<v Speaker 1>Microsoft as more of an R and D going into

0:22:25.880 --> 0:22:28.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, a new company where if they can you know,

0:22:28.600 --> 0:22:31.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm assuming there is some commercial agreement here that they

0:22:31.320 --> 0:22:34.119
<v Speaker 1>can use these products to to enhance the value of

0:22:34.119 --> 0:22:38.840
<v Speaker 1>what they do. All right, That's uh an interesting story.

0:22:38.880 --> 0:22:41.200
<v Speaker 1>I think we have a jumping off point from which

0:22:41.200 --> 0:22:44.320
<v Speaker 1>Paul and I can dig down into a deep rabite GPT.

0:22:44.680 --> 0:22:47.280
<v Speaker 1>We're gonna be I go, and we're gonna we're gonna

0:22:47.280 --> 0:22:49.119
<v Speaker 1>get into this. Okay. I want to quickly ask you

0:22:49.119 --> 0:22:53.040
<v Speaker 1>about Apple on our because it seems like, um, some

0:22:53.119 --> 0:22:56.000
<v Speaker 1>investors may have been taken by surprise or Broadcast may

0:22:56.000 --> 0:23:00.159
<v Speaker 1>have been taken by surprise as Apple intends to develop

0:23:00.200 --> 0:23:03.320
<v Speaker 1>its own products and no longer use those that it

0:23:03.359 --> 0:23:06.000
<v Speaker 1>gets from others like broad Company. We've known this for

0:23:06.040 --> 0:23:09.200
<v Speaker 1>a long time, right, Intel was cut out a while back,

0:23:09.640 --> 0:23:13.320
<v Speaker 1>and Claw Calm has told investors like, yeah, this is

0:23:13.359 --> 0:23:15.240
<v Speaker 1>what we get like ten billion revenue from them, but

0:23:15.240 --> 0:23:18.720
<v Speaker 1>that's gonna dwindle over time. For Broadcom, it seems like

0:23:18.760 --> 0:23:21.399
<v Speaker 1>they were kind of counting on this future revenue streat.

0:23:21.440 --> 0:23:24.440
<v Speaker 1>I think. I think from you know, I would say

0:23:24.440 --> 0:23:26.479
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to comment on the guys who are

0:23:26.520 --> 0:23:29.440
<v Speaker 1>losing in this case, only because you know, you would

0:23:29.440 --> 0:23:31.639
<v Speaker 1>expect a company like Apple to make sure they have

0:23:31.720 --> 0:23:34.359
<v Speaker 1>full control over the supply chain as well as the

0:23:34.359 --> 0:23:36.600
<v Speaker 1>parts that come in, you know. But from my side,

0:23:36.600 --> 0:23:38.919
<v Speaker 1>and this is far more than just cost control or

0:23:38.960 --> 0:23:42.359
<v Speaker 1>supply chain management. It is really about dictating what the

0:23:42.400 --> 0:23:45.399
<v Speaker 1>next generation products are going to be, because frankly speaking,

0:23:45.400 --> 0:23:47.440
<v Speaker 1>Apple is not going to tell them what they are

0:23:47.440 --> 0:23:50.560
<v Speaker 1>working on for their next generation products in the case

0:23:50.600 --> 0:23:53.760
<v Speaker 1>of chips for example, or processor for example. UM they

0:23:53.840 --> 0:23:56.400
<v Speaker 1>got rid of Intel and they you know, they're developing

0:23:56.400 --> 0:24:00.080
<v Speaker 1>their own processors and that really has helped them to

0:24:00.520 --> 0:24:04.240
<v Speaker 1>see double digit growth rate in their higher end mac books.

0:24:04.680 --> 0:24:07.000
<v Speaker 1>UM and that is because the mptwo processor is is

0:24:07.040 --> 0:24:10.040
<v Speaker 1>pretty amazing, or the mband processor before that, and that's

0:24:10.080 --> 0:24:12.720
<v Speaker 1>far better than what Intel could do. So from my side,

0:24:12.760 --> 0:24:14.920
<v Speaker 1>I think they're not just going to jump off call

0:24:15.000 --> 0:24:17.520
<v Speaker 1>com because they're going to save some money unless they

0:24:17.520 --> 0:24:19.879
<v Speaker 1>have a product that's better than that UM And I

0:24:19.880 --> 0:24:21.800
<v Speaker 1>think that's that the reason for that is that's going

0:24:21.880 --> 0:24:26.639
<v Speaker 1>to drive innovation from their side. So I mean, is

0:24:26.680 --> 0:24:29.520
<v Speaker 1>this what's Apple gonna do? Are they gonna ensure this stuff?

0:24:29.600 --> 0:24:31.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's kind of seems to be the thing

0:24:31.960 --> 0:24:35.480
<v Speaker 1>now again again, it's going to you know, it's going

0:24:35.560 --> 0:24:37.000
<v Speaker 1>to take some time for us to figure out. I

0:24:37.080 --> 0:24:39.439
<v Speaker 1>think a lot of this would be they develop their

0:24:39.480 --> 0:24:41.959
<v Speaker 1>own you know, design than they're going to do somebody

0:24:42.000 --> 0:24:43.600
<v Speaker 1>like a t M c T S MC as Money

0:24:43.760 --> 0:24:47.040
<v Speaker 1>said yesterday, to develop those particular chips and they're gonna

0:24:47.080 --> 0:24:49.040
<v Speaker 1>put it in their products. But one of the big

0:24:49.040 --> 0:24:52.040
<v Speaker 1>things is going to be the product may have features

0:24:52.080 --> 0:24:55.159
<v Speaker 1>that may be used in the next generation iPhones that

0:24:55.480 --> 0:24:58.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, may or may not be on paper at

0:24:58.400 --> 0:25:01.359
<v Speaker 1>this point, because they're looking out ahead years down the

0:25:01.440 --> 0:25:04.080
<v Speaker 1>road of what some of these things can do that

0:25:04.240 --> 0:25:06.560
<v Speaker 1>is not the current capabilities or may not be even

0:25:06.600 --> 0:25:10.320
<v Speaker 1>part of the product designed for either Welcome or broadcom. Alright,

0:25:10.359 --> 0:25:13.480
<v Speaker 1>good stuff. Lots of movement there in the tech space,

0:25:13.600 --> 0:25:16.720
<v Speaker 1>as always, Apple discussions, Microsoft, some of the big names

0:25:17.320 --> 0:25:19.639
<v Speaker 1>doing big things as they always do. And so when

0:25:19.640 --> 0:25:21.719
<v Speaker 1>we got that, we talked to on a rock run

0:25:21.800 --> 0:25:23.240
<v Speaker 1>and we talked to Man Deep sing. Those are the

0:25:23.240 --> 0:25:26.040
<v Speaker 1>tech anlems. We just type I go, we just type

0:25:26.040 --> 0:25:29.280
<v Speaker 1>B I go. And just to remember, everybody, Bloomberg Intelligence

0:25:29.400 --> 0:25:33.080
<v Speaker 1>is the best research shop on Wall Street. We've got

0:25:33.119 --> 0:25:36.000
<v Speaker 1>like four hundred analysts all around the world covering two

0:25:36.000 --> 0:25:40.560
<v Speaker 1>thousand companies, a hundred twenty industries, equity, fixed income, commodities,

0:25:41.240 --> 0:25:43.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, all that kind of stuff. Cars and I

0:25:43.680 --> 0:25:45.560
<v Speaker 1>just saw Michael Dean walking around. I know, Chael Deane

0:25:45.560 --> 0:25:47.879
<v Speaker 1>We've got Kevin Tynan. We got the best car analysts

0:25:47.920 --> 0:25:49.919
<v Speaker 1>in the world. Yeah. So if you have a Bloomberg terminal,

0:25:50.000 --> 0:25:51.840
<v Speaker 1>beat I go and you can actually call up and

0:25:51.880 --> 0:25:53.440
<v Speaker 1>talk to these analysts, just like in the old days.

0:25:57.480 --> 0:26:00.720
<v Speaker 1>Let's stuck fixed income. Those are bonds, Matt, that's credit,

0:26:00.800 --> 0:26:03.320
<v Speaker 1>that's that kind of stuff. I'm the stocks guy. I

0:26:03.400 --> 0:26:06.199
<v Speaker 1>just my job is to tell a good story, you know,

0:26:06.280 --> 0:26:08.560
<v Speaker 1>forecasting earning, Slap a multiple on it, and we're good

0:26:08.560 --> 0:26:10.760
<v Speaker 1>to go. But fixing comes a whole different animal. That's

0:26:10.760 --> 0:26:12.840
<v Speaker 1>why I bring in the smart people. George Bori, chief

0:26:12.880 --> 0:26:16.119
<v Speaker 1>investment strategist for Fixed. Them with fixing, come with all

0:26:16.200 --> 0:26:20.639
<v Speaker 1>Spring Global Investments, Pride of Milwaukee. But you're based here

0:26:20.680 --> 0:26:22.600
<v Speaker 1>in New York, right, I'm in New York. Okay, So

0:26:22.640 --> 0:26:24.960
<v Speaker 1>I thought I thought you guys were all like in

0:26:25.000 --> 0:26:28.520
<v Speaker 1>that mononymy Falls campus. Yeah, well not many of us.

0:26:28.520 --> 0:26:30.239
<v Speaker 1>So you guys have an outpost here. We have an

0:26:30.240 --> 0:26:32.760
<v Speaker 1>office here in York, which is what's great. It's uh,

0:26:32.880 --> 0:26:34.919
<v Speaker 1>it's kind of a branch office, but but still a

0:26:34.920 --> 0:26:38.399
<v Speaker 1>good hub for the team. Good stuff, George, you know

0:26:38.440 --> 0:26:41.400
<v Speaker 1>what I mean. Two, You know it as well as anybody.

0:26:41.520 --> 0:26:44.440
<v Speaker 1>Brutal brutal year for fixed income. I'm wondering how you're

0:26:44.480 --> 0:26:47.000
<v Speaker 1>you're thinking about going forward. Let's just forget about twenty two.

0:26:47.000 --> 0:26:49.240
<v Speaker 1>And I'm sure you're gonna tell your boss during a review.

0:26:49.280 --> 0:26:51.520
<v Speaker 1>Let's just forget about twenty two. It didn't happen. What

0:26:51.560 --> 0:26:53.480
<v Speaker 1>are you focusing on in twenty three? Well, thanks for

0:26:53.560 --> 0:26:55.560
<v Speaker 1>having me on the show. First off, it's always great

0:26:55.600 --> 0:26:57.760
<v Speaker 1>to be back in studio. It's been a while, and

0:26:58.040 --> 0:27:00.320
<v Speaker 1>I love being on the radio segment. But you know,

0:27:00.359 --> 0:27:02.680
<v Speaker 1>as as a fixed income investor, I think there's kind

0:27:02.680 --> 0:27:05.400
<v Speaker 1>of one central message that we've been kind of working with.

0:27:05.440 --> 0:27:07.440
<v Speaker 1>And you know, we've coming out of about ten to

0:27:07.520 --> 0:27:10.479
<v Speaker 1>fifteen years of a lot of financial repression, and the

0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:13.879
<v Speaker 1>whole notion of like there's no alternative, the whole Tina

0:27:13.960 --> 0:27:17.080
<v Speaker 1>notion has changed, and our view is that there is

0:27:17.119 --> 0:27:19.919
<v Speaker 1>an alternative. There is an alternative going forward, and the

0:27:19.960 --> 0:27:23.960
<v Speaker 1>alternative is fixed income. The Feds done a tremendous amount

0:27:23.960 --> 0:27:26.399
<v Speaker 1>of work to get cash rates up to sort of

0:27:26.400 --> 0:27:30.879
<v Speaker 1>a more typical or more normal rate. The macroeconomics around

0:27:30.960 --> 0:27:34.280
<v Speaker 1>us are still calibrating. We expect inflation to ultimately come

0:27:34.280 --> 0:27:36.320
<v Speaker 1>down over the course of this year, but it's gonna

0:27:36.359 --> 0:27:38.480
<v Speaker 1>be kind of a choppy road. It's not it's not

0:27:38.520 --> 0:27:41.120
<v Speaker 1>gonna be one way in directional. But when we look

0:27:41.160 --> 0:27:45.920
<v Speaker 1>across fixed income, fixed income can do what it's supposed

0:27:45.920 --> 0:27:49.800
<v Speaker 1>to do, and and that's really generated very consistent and

0:27:50.040 --> 0:27:53.840
<v Speaker 1>steady and predictable stream of income. It's not sexy, it's

0:27:53.880 --> 0:27:57.399
<v Speaker 1>not wildly exciting, but it's pretty gratifying when it shows

0:27:57.440 --> 0:28:00.440
<v Speaker 1>up when it's supposed to and there's some predict ability

0:28:00.480 --> 0:28:03.080
<v Speaker 1>there for people to sort of build out their wealth

0:28:03.119 --> 0:28:06.080
<v Speaker 1>and their portfolios and immunize their liability. And I think

0:28:06.280 --> 0:28:09.040
<v Speaker 1>that's the point. I think it is pretty exciting UM

0:28:09.080 --> 0:28:11.840
<v Speaker 1>for students of the market. What we have seen over

0:28:11.880 --> 0:28:16.000
<v Speaker 1>the last ten years was obviously crazy drama and you

0:28:16.119 --> 0:28:21.960
<v Speaker 1>had you know, central banks performing financial repression, pushing everybody

0:28:22.000 --> 0:28:27.600
<v Speaker 1>out the risk curve. You know, it's the kind of UM,

0:28:27.640 --> 0:28:34.400
<v Speaker 1>it's the kind of uh uh artificial UM market atmosphere

0:28:34.440 --> 0:28:40.160
<v Speaker 1>that nobody understands with UM with consequences that are unpredictable,

0:28:40.240 --> 0:28:43.320
<v Speaker 1>and that's not great. Although some people may have made

0:28:43.320 --> 0:28:45.440
<v Speaker 1>a lot of money, a lot of other people got crushed.

0:28:45.440 --> 0:28:48.200
<v Speaker 1>But you didn't get to put to use anything that

0:28:48.240 --> 0:28:50.840
<v Speaker 1>you learned in school, anything that you read in books, right,

0:28:50.880 --> 0:28:54.040
<v Speaker 1>And now we're getting back to an era where I think, um,

0:28:54.120 --> 0:28:57.600
<v Speaker 1>you can actually take lessons that you that you've that

0:28:57.680 --> 0:29:00.320
<v Speaker 1>you've built up over years and put them to work

0:29:00.320 --> 0:29:02.520
<v Speaker 1>in the market in a conservative way. You can build

0:29:02.560 --> 0:29:05.840
<v Speaker 1>a portfolio, save money, and and and and build and

0:29:05.840 --> 0:29:07.920
<v Speaker 1>build income. And that's a good thing I think for

0:29:08.000 --> 0:29:11.280
<v Speaker 1>most investors. We we do as well. And and when

0:29:11.280 --> 0:29:13.640
<v Speaker 1>we think about fixed income, like I said, it really

0:29:13.640 --> 0:29:16.640
<v Speaker 1>does kind of does three things. Actually, one is income,

0:29:16.720 --> 0:29:19.800
<v Speaker 1>and we know that, you know, sort of a fixed

0:29:19.800 --> 0:29:22.880
<v Speaker 1>income portfolio's return is ultimately going to be that income.

0:29:22.920 --> 0:29:25.280
<v Speaker 1>And so the recognition that I can get it today

0:29:25.520 --> 0:29:28.200
<v Speaker 1>that there is an alternative to sort of capture that income,

0:29:28.480 --> 0:29:30.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, is front and center. The second is just

0:29:30.880 --> 0:29:33.680
<v Speaker 1>being able to weather volatility. You think back where yields

0:29:33.680 --> 0:29:35.680
<v Speaker 1>were a year or so ago, not a lot of

0:29:35.720 --> 0:29:38.720
<v Speaker 1>cushion in that trade, and so when volve struck, you know,

0:29:38.800 --> 0:29:42.080
<v Speaker 1>prices fell pretty quickly. Today we have a much greater

0:29:42.200 --> 0:29:44.360
<v Speaker 1>cushion in the in the sort of the bond market

0:29:44.360 --> 0:29:47.240
<v Speaker 1>world to allow us to deal with a lot more uncertainty.

0:29:47.240 --> 0:29:50.320
<v Speaker 1>And then the last it's just diversification. As we all know,

0:29:50.400 --> 0:29:53.480
<v Speaker 1>the sixty strategy didn't work out so well last year.

0:29:53.760 --> 0:29:56.880
<v Speaker 1>But with bond yields now sort of more consistent with

0:29:56.960 --> 0:29:59.760
<v Speaker 1>a kind of what we'd call more typical economic backdrop,

0:29:59.800 --> 0:30:02.240
<v Speaker 1>it least some cushion against inflation, a little bit of

0:30:02.240 --> 0:30:06.680
<v Speaker 1>cushion against unexpected sort of shocks. That should allow fixed

0:30:06.720 --> 0:30:10.280
<v Speaker 1>income to provide some diversification against other things. And so

0:30:10.400 --> 0:30:13.880
<v Speaker 1>it's the income, it's the break even and and and

0:30:13.040 --> 0:30:17.360
<v Speaker 1>um and volatility cushion and then the diversification. And that's

0:30:17.400 --> 0:30:20.400
<v Speaker 1>what's exciting about fixed it. How do we know when

0:30:20.640 --> 0:30:23.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, what we've seen with this foreigner fitty basis

0:30:23.440 --> 0:30:25.920
<v Speaker 1>points in the past twelve months, is the FED essentially

0:30:26.520 --> 0:30:30.640
<v Speaker 1>forcing the market to reprice assets and and the whole

0:30:30.680 --> 0:30:35.640
<v Speaker 1>process um and the intervention that we've seen over the

0:30:35.640 --> 0:30:38.920
<v Speaker 1>past decade. That's kind of a sionara to that. How

0:30:38.960 --> 0:30:42.040
<v Speaker 1>do we know when that process is over? Um, you know,

0:30:42.120 --> 0:30:45.520
<v Speaker 1>when we can start working from square one? Yeah, that's

0:30:45.640 --> 0:30:47.840
<v Speaker 1>that's a great question, and that you know, we talked

0:30:47.840 --> 0:30:50.280
<v Speaker 1>to clients about that, we talk amongst ourselves on the

0:30:50.320 --> 0:30:53.200
<v Speaker 1>investment teams, and you know, it's it's hard to sort

0:30:53.200 --> 0:30:55.080
<v Speaker 1>of narrow it down to one but but if we

0:30:55.160 --> 0:30:58.240
<v Speaker 1>look back through the last sort of fifty sixty seventy years,

0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:01.280
<v Speaker 1>FED cycles have all to really been determined, or at

0:31:01.320 --> 0:31:03.840
<v Speaker 1>least the sort of the peak in that cycle has

0:31:03.920 --> 0:31:07.680
<v Speaker 1>typically aligned. When the Feds sort of base rate you

0:31:07.720 --> 0:31:09.840
<v Speaker 1>can define it by FED funds or the three month

0:31:09.920 --> 0:31:13.120
<v Speaker 1>T bill, whichever you prefer, is above kind of the

0:31:13.200 --> 0:31:16.920
<v Speaker 1>spot level of inflation, well, then you can decidedly say

0:31:16.960 --> 0:31:19.360
<v Speaker 1>the Fed is kind of ahead of the curve, and

0:31:19.440 --> 0:31:21.800
<v Speaker 1>we know inflation, we're going to get data on Thursday,

0:31:21.800 --> 0:31:24.480
<v Speaker 1>we'll get an updated number, but a kind of let's

0:31:24.520 --> 0:31:27.320
<v Speaker 1>call it a six percent type of level on inflation

0:31:27.440 --> 0:31:29.640
<v Speaker 1>right now, and the Feds still at four fifty, you

0:31:29.680 --> 0:31:31.960
<v Speaker 1>know they're they're they're not ahead of the curve. Now,

0:31:32.160 --> 0:31:34.440
<v Speaker 1>the market is hoping, and so are we, that inflation

0:31:34.480 --> 0:31:36.840
<v Speaker 1>is going to continue to trend lower, and at some

0:31:36.880 --> 0:31:39.200
<v Speaker 1>point in the first half of this year, we think

0:31:39.280 --> 0:31:42.400
<v Speaker 1>those sort of two lines will cross. Fed funds will

0:31:42.480 --> 0:31:46.840
<v Speaker 1>ultimately be above where inflation sort of is at the time.

0:31:47.080 --> 0:31:50.920
<v Speaker 1>We think that's gonna happen around five percent. And it's

0:31:50.960 --> 0:31:53.520
<v Speaker 1>at that point that the Fed can become a lot

0:31:53.560 --> 0:31:56.160
<v Speaker 1>more symmetric in their messaging. They don't have to be

0:31:56.240 --> 0:32:00.080
<v Speaker 1>so exclusively um hawkish. And then this sort of the

0:32:00.120 --> 0:32:03.400
<v Speaker 1>expectation about where's the next move going to come where

0:32:03.480 --> 0:32:06.239
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing some of that hopefulness get priced into the

0:32:06.320 --> 0:32:09.120
<v Speaker 1>to the front end of the curve, specifically in FED funds.

0:32:09.160 --> 0:32:11.680
<v Speaker 1>I think that's a little optimistic. We think that actual

0:32:11.720 --> 0:32:14.400
<v Speaker 1>trade is probably more into next year rather than this year.

0:32:14.680 --> 0:32:17.760
<v Speaker 1>But the symmetry or the distribution of that that next

0:32:17.840 --> 0:32:20.640
<v Speaker 1>step that's gonna unfold over the course of the year.

0:32:20.680 --> 0:32:23.120
<v Speaker 1>But the thing we're looking for, or the point, the

0:32:23.200 --> 0:32:25.640
<v Speaker 1>data point that we're looking for, is is once FED

0:32:25.720 --> 0:32:28.480
<v Speaker 1>funds is sort of above that spot rate of inflation,

0:32:28.760 --> 0:32:31.880
<v Speaker 1>then we can focus on other things other than just inflation.

0:32:32.160 --> 0:32:34.080
<v Speaker 1>Until we get to that point, it's sort of all

0:32:34.080 --> 0:32:36.880
<v Speaker 1>inflation all the time, all right, George. I mean, if

0:32:36.920 --> 0:32:39.040
<v Speaker 1>I want to go out on the risk spectrum a

0:32:39.080 --> 0:32:41.160
<v Speaker 1>little bit and play in the high yield space, is

0:32:41.160 --> 0:32:45.600
<v Speaker 1>that fulls? Is that a fulls Errand because everybody's telling

0:32:45.600 --> 0:32:47.600
<v Speaker 1>me there's a recession next year, how do you think

0:32:47.600 --> 0:32:50.640
<v Speaker 1>about high yield? I mean, typically, you know, the rule

0:32:50.680 --> 0:32:53.200
<v Speaker 1>of thumb is, you know, avoid avoid high yield going

0:32:53.200 --> 0:32:55.200
<v Speaker 1>into recession. As as you mentioned, you know, it's a

0:32:55.360 --> 0:32:57.680
<v Speaker 1>sort of a low grade risk, a low grade play

0:32:57.880 --> 0:33:00.200
<v Speaker 1>on kind of equity vall. You know, if we look

0:33:00.240 --> 0:33:02.680
<v Speaker 1>at at high but but I think the dominant factor

0:33:02.720 --> 0:33:06.000
<v Speaker 1>in markets today is just simply yield. And so you know,

0:33:06.080 --> 0:33:09.080
<v Speaker 1>as investors sort of recalibrate portfolios, there's a very strong

0:33:09.120 --> 0:33:11.760
<v Speaker 1>technical to sort of capture that yield. And we look

0:33:11.800 --> 0:33:14.120
<v Speaker 1>at a market like high yield. And when high yield

0:33:14.120 --> 0:33:16.760
<v Speaker 1>typically is yielding between eight and ten percent, which is

0:33:16.880 --> 0:33:19.320
<v Speaker 1>roughly where it is today, you know, high yield as

0:33:19.320 --> 0:33:22.680
<v Speaker 1>an asset class tends to have very attractive future returns.

0:33:23.040 --> 0:33:26.000
<v Speaker 1>Going back to that break even and sort of volatility cushion,

0:33:26.240 --> 0:33:28.959
<v Speaker 1>you can absorb a lot of sort of market volatility

0:33:29.000 --> 0:33:31.960
<v Speaker 1>as well as kind of credit migration and ultimately default

0:33:32.080 --> 0:33:34.680
<v Speaker 1>risk when your average yield is sort of eight to

0:33:34.760 --> 0:33:38.320
<v Speaker 1>ten percent. So while we're cautious about the economic outlook

0:33:38.320 --> 0:33:40.400
<v Speaker 1>and there's we need to do some work and make

0:33:40.440 --> 0:33:42.760
<v Speaker 1>sure that we're picking the right credits, making sure that

0:33:42.760 --> 0:33:45.240
<v Speaker 1>your pencil sharp and you're you're really attuned to the

0:33:45.320 --> 0:33:48.680
<v Speaker 1>right type of companies. The value is just simply the yield,

0:33:48.720 --> 0:33:51.280
<v Speaker 1>and the yield is ultimately the cushion that's what I

0:33:51.320 --> 0:33:54.000
<v Speaker 1>earn in in high yield and say, you know, eight

0:33:54.000 --> 0:33:57.640
<v Speaker 1>to ten running yield says nothing about compression. A little

0:33:57.680 --> 0:34:00.360
<v Speaker 1>bit of compression and you could see, you know, solid

0:34:00.400 --> 0:34:02.680
<v Speaker 1>double digit returns in high yield this year, which is

0:34:02.720 --> 0:34:06.240
<v Speaker 1>exactly what we're expecting. That's what I'm talking about. Yeah, absolutely,

0:34:06.280 --> 0:34:09.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, and especially great if you don't have the

0:34:10.000 --> 0:34:11.799
<v Speaker 1>kind of recession that we were worried about a couple

0:34:11.840 --> 0:34:14.000
<v Speaker 1>of weeks ago. It seems like a lot of more

0:34:14.080 --> 0:34:17.359
<v Speaker 1>commentators have gotten some optimism in the last few weeks

0:34:17.360 --> 0:34:19.279
<v Speaker 1>that a soft landing is possible, that we're not going

0:34:19.320 --> 0:34:23.600
<v Speaker 1>to see Matthew Mish said nine percent defaults possible um

0:34:23.719 --> 0:34:26.880
<v Speaker 1>this year, but it's looking less likely, at least from

0:34:26.880 --> 0:34:29.400
<v Speaker 1>the people we've talked to over the past couple of weeks. Yeah. Well,

0:34:29.520 --> 0:34:32.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're cautious on the economic outlook. You know,

0:34:32.040 --> 0:34:34.279
<v Speaker 1>we think things will soften up this year. There's a

0:34:34.400 --> 0:34:37.440
<v Speaker 1>very healthy and robust debate going across our investment teams.

0:34:37.719 --> 0:34:39.520
<v Speaker 1>Is that a hard landing? Is it a soft landing?

0:34:39.920 --> 0:34:42.480
<v Speaker 1>My personal view, and I think the view of many

0:34:42.520 --> 0:34:44.400
<v Speaker 1>of the folks on the team is that it's just

0:34:44.440 --> 0:34:48.120
<v Speaker 1>going to be a very sluggish and ungratifying year. From

0:34:48.120 --> 0:34:51.120
<v Speaker 1>a pure growth perspective, it doesn't mean we careen into

0:34:51.120 --> 0:34:54.680
<v Speaker 1>a recession, and rather than sort of expecting a really

0:34:54.760 --> 0:34:57.680
<v Speaker 1>hard landing, we're going through a massive rotation. And when

0:34:57.719 --> 0:35:00.200
<v Speaker 1>we talk about things like high yield, you know there's

0:35:00.239 --> 0:35:02.200
<v Speaker 1>different ways to play it. If you don't want to

0:35:02.239 --> 0:35:05.440
<v Speaker 1>play the duration component, you can still harbor yourself in

0:35:05.480 --> 0:35:08.160
<v Speaker 1>the front end of the curve, capture two thirds three

0:35:08.239 --> 0:35:11.480
<v Speaker 1>quarters of that yield and take much less risk. And

0:35:11.560 --> 0:35:14.399
<v Speaker 1>so to us fixed income, the beauty of it right

0:35:14.400 --> 0:35:17.480
<v Speaker 1>now is that you can finesse your view and really

0:35:17.560 --> 0:35:19.719
<v Speaker 1>pick the spots that are gonna work for you. If

0:35:19.719 --> 0:35:22.719
<v Speaker 1>you want just pure your yielded income, things like short

0:35:22.800 --> 0:35:25.839
<v Speaker 1>duration hiw yield or full full sector how yield can work.

0:35:26.040 --> 0:35:28.640
<v Speaker 1>If you want longer duration, maybe you should think about

0:35:28.719 --> 0:35:32.920
<v Speaker 1>municipal bonds. Municipals have been very well protected, uh they're

0:35:32.960 --> 0:35:36.319
<v Speaker 1>performing very nicely and it's a good sort of duration

0:35:36.440 --> 0:35:39.640
<v Speaker 1>anchor in your portfolio. And if you just want the

0:35:39.640 --> 0:35:42.000
<v Speaker 1>broad market, there's always kind of the straight up the

0:35:42.000 --> 0:35:45.200
<v Speaker 1>middle core and core plus strategy. So there's a lot

0:35:45.239 --> 0:35:48.120
<v Speaker 1>to chew on here with with some pretty and fairly

0:35:48.160 --> 0:35:51.360
<v Speaker 1>predictable returns that we think will work well for folks

0:35:51.760 --> 0:35:54.840
<v Speaker 1>in their portfolios. All right, good stuff, George Boy. George,

0:35:54.880 --> 0:35:56.799
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for joining us here. George Boy, chief

0:35:56.800 --> 0:36:00.280
<v Speaker 1>investment strategist for fixed income at all Spring, a mobal

0:36:00.440 --> 0:36:05.520
<v Speaker 1>investments group. Well, a little healthcare M and A And

0:36:05.560 --> 0:36:07.279
<v Speaker 1>as I've always said, in the next life, I'm want

0:36:07.280 --> 0:36:09.280
<v Speaker 1>to come back as a healthcare m and a banker

0:36:09.400 --> 0:36:13.360
<v Speaker 1>because those guys just get paid every year. There's always deals,

0:36:13.400 --> 0:36:16.640
<v Speaker 1>And here's another one. CBS health Core is exploring an

0:36:16.640 --> 0:36:20.520
<v Speaker 1>acquisition of oak Street Health, which one's primary care centers

0:36:20.560 --> 0:36:24.040
<v Speaker 1>for Medicare recipients. That's according to people familiar with the matter. Uh,

0:36:24.080 --> 0:36:26.239
<v Speaker 1>the deal could value oak Street at more than ten

0:36:26.280 --> 0:36:29.160
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars in full enterprise values. Let's break this deal

0:36:29.200 --> 0:36:31.960
<v Speaker 1>down and we can do with Jonathan um Palmer. He

0:36:32.040 --> 0:36:34.720
<v Speaker 1>is a senior equity research channels and team leader covering

0:36:34.760 --> 0:36:38.360
<v Speaker 1>all healthcare for Bloomberg Intelligence. Jonathan, thanks so much for

0:36:38.480 --> 0:36:40.240
<v Speaker 1>joining us here. Just give us the kind of the

0:36:40.239 --> 0:36:43.040
<v Speaker 1>the key points here on what is another big deal

0:36:43.040 --> 0:36:46.360
<v Speaker 1>in that healthcare space? Yeah, hide fall Matt, thanks for

0:36:46.400 --> 0:36:48.399
<v Speaker 1>having me on. You know this week is the JP

0:36:48.560 --> 0:36:51.839
<v Speaker 1>Morgan Healthcare conference out in San Francisco. That's where I'm

0:36:51.840 --> 0:36:54.719
<v Speaker 1>at right now, and it's really the seminal event in

0:36:54.800 --> 0:36:57.759
<v Speaker 1>the healthcare investment landscape. And we see a lot of

0:36:57.800 --> 0:37:00.719
<v Speaker 1>deal noise typically around this event, and this year is

0:37:00.760 --> 0:37:03.400
<v Speaker 1>really no different. There's been a couple of small therapeutic

0:37:03.440 --> 0:37:05.239
<v Speaker 1>deals that have been announced. But you know, as you

0:37:05.280 --> 0:37:09.800
<v Speaker 1>saw yesterday, there's a media speculation that CBS might acquire

0:37:09.960 --> 0:37:13.680
<v Speaker 1>oak Street uh for ten billion dollars and and really

0:37:13.680 --> 0:37:15.680
<v Speaker 1>this comes as not much of a surprise, to be

0:37:15.719 --> 0:37:18.920
<v Speaker 1>honest with you. Um, CBS has talked about wanting to

0:37:18.960 --> 0:37:22.399
<v Speaker 1>acquire companies in the primary care space. That's what Oak

0:37:22.480 --> 0:37:25.239
<v Speaker 1>Street does, and they've been rumored to be kicking the

0:37:25.280 --> 0:37:28.839
<v Speaker 1>tires on you know, uh oak Street another company called

0:37:28.880 --> 0:37:33.400
<v Speaker 1>Cano Health, and according to you know, our news reporters,

0:37:33.440 --> 0:37:36.480
<v Speaker 1>they've lost out on Amazon's bid for for one Medical.

0:37:36.920 --> 0:37:39.719
<v Speaker 1>So there's a lot going on in this space. Pharmacies

0:37:39.760 --> 0:37:42.640
<v Speaker 1>don't really want to be in the pharmacy business anymore.

0:37:43.640 --> 0:37:46.160
<v Speaker 1>You know, you've seen Walgreens do a deal with Village

0:37:46.239 --> 0:37:51.080
<v Speaker 1>m D. You saw right, Aid just cut their CEOs

0:37:51.160 --> 0:37:54.400
<v Speaker 1>yesterday and replace her as they're not doing too well.

0:37:54.680 --> 0:37:56.799
<v Speaker 1>So there's a lot going on, and there's a lot

0:37:56.880 --> 0:37:59.200
<v Speaker 1>that's happening, you know where these companies want to become

0:37:59.239 --> 0:38:02.640
<v Speaker 1>more healthcare service providers instead of just you know, a

0:38:02.719 --> 0:38:06.240
<v Speaker 1>retail pharmacy. At the end of the day, how how

0:38:06.239 --> 0:38:09.399
<v Speaker 1>has healthcare M and A held up in a year

0:38:10.239 --> 0:38:15.000
<v Speaker 1>looking back that was really not good for for deals

0:38:15.000 --> 0:38:18.480
<v Speaker 1>in other industries, And I mean, what are we going

0:38:18.560 --> 0:38:21.960
<v Speaker 1>to expect in three Yeah, it's a good question. I

0:38:21.960 --> 0:38:24.440
<v Speaker 1>think there's a couple of things at play here. You know,

0:38:24.480 --> 0:38:27.759
<v Speaker 1>we had the pandemic, and depending on which subsector of

0:38:28.239 --> 0:38:31.440
<v Speaker 1>healthcare the company companies were in, you know, it filled

0:38:31.480 --> 0:38:34.040
<v Speaker 1>the coffers for some, you know, the visors, and Maderna

0:38:34.120 --> 0:38:37.840
<v Speaker 1>Is obviously generated a lot of cash with their vaccine

0:38:37.880 --> 0:38:40.480
<v Speaker 1>revenues and put that money to work. We saw a

0:38:40.480 --> 0:38:43.239
<v Speaker 1>lot of the diagnostic test makers, you know, take the

0:38:43.280 --> 0:38:45.960
<v Speaker 1>COVID cash if they generated, and put it back in

0:38:45.960 --> 0:38:48.759
<v Speaker 1>into the market via M and A. Last year was

0:38:48.800 --> 0:38:51.719
<v Speaker 1>a touch slower relative to maybe two thousands twenty one,

0:38:51.760 --> 0:38:54.400
<v Speaker 1>but you know, health care is a pretty profitable industry

0:38:54.480 --> 0:38:57.239
<v Speaker 1>and returns on capital are good, so you know, I

0:38:57.280 --> 0:39:00.399
<v Speaker 1>think we'll see more deals happened this year. I mean,

0:39:00.400 --> 0:39:04.359
<v Speaker 1>as public markets have reset for a lot of subsectors.

0:39:04.840 --> 0:39:07.640
<v Speaker 1>You know, prices are down. Whether private valuations you know,

0:39:07.719 --> 0:39:09.960
<v Speaker 1>follow us quickly, I think remains to be seen. But

0:39:10.600 --> 0:39:13.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's there's definitely a tenor here at this

0:39:13.680 --> 0:39:17.200
<v Speaker 1>conference that will see more deals. And you know, Matt,

0:39:17.360 --> 0:39:19.799
<v Speaker 1>here's what's fascinating about the healthcare space and the JP

0:39:19.880 --> 0:39:23.640
<v Speaker 1>Morgan conference. JP Morgan is hosting their annual conference where

0:39:23.640 --> 0:39:25.440
<v Speaker 1>they big a bunch of healthcare companies together. It's in

0:39:25.440 --> 0:39:27.960
<v Speaker 1>San Francisco every year. It's the biggest conference in the

0:39:28.000 --> 0:39:31.640
<v Speaker 1>industry by far. So who attends, well, everybody, global companies

0:39:31.680 --> 0:39:34.919
<v Speaker 1>from around the world, global institutional investor clients at JP

0:39:35.000 --> 0:39:38.719
<v Speaker 1>Morgan from around the world. And then guess what, everybody

0:39:38.719 --> 0:39:41.480
<v Speaker 1>else comes to San Francisco who was interested in healthcare,

0:39:41.760 --> 0:39:46.520
<v Speaker 1>like like Jonathan Palmer, and investors and bankers from other

0:39:46.520 --> 0:39:49.680
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street firms because they know that everybody in the

0:39:49.719 --> 0:39:52.680
<v Speaker 1>healthcare space who means anything is in San Francis. I

0:39:52.680 --> 0:39:55.920
<v Speaker 1>think I read that there are almost fifty thousand people

0:39:55.960 --> 0:39:58.600
<v Speaker 1>in San Francisco for the conference and only eight thousand

0:39:58.640 --> 0:40:02.319
<v Speaker 1>are getting in. So it's at least for people who

0:40:02.320 --> 0:40:06.600
<v Speaker 1>are hanging around the bars and restaurants on the sidelines

0:40:06.640 --> 0:40:09.560
<v Speaker 1>trying to get deals done right. So exactly, So, Jonathan,

0:40:09.600 --> 0:40:11.439
<v Speaker 1>this is really amazing. I don't see it in too

0:40:11.440 --> 0:40:13.400
<v Speaker 1>many other industries. But just give us a sense of

0:40:13.400 --> 0:40:16.319
<v Speaker 1>the history of this JP Morgan conference and and kind

0:40:16.320 --> 0:40:19.360
<v Speaker 1>of what it means to the healthcare industry. Well, you

0:40:19.400 --> 0:40:21.200
<v Speaker 1>guys have to nail on the head. I mean, it's

0:40:21.239 --> 0:40:24.520
<v Speaker 1>it is the seminal event in the healthcare investment space.

0:40:24.560 --> 0:40:27.560
<v Speaker 1>It's it's been going on for over thirty years. It

0:40:27.600 --> 0:40:29.560
<v Speaker 1>actually used to be run by a bank called the

0:40:29.680 --> 0:40:33.959
<v Speaker 1>Handbracking Quest. JP Morgan bought back in the day there,

0:40:34.000 --> 0:40:36.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, when they were acquiring you know, everybody bought

0:40:36.800 --> 0:40:40.040
<v Speaker 1>the four Horsemen, the four investment banks in San fran

0:40:40.120 --> 0:40:43.120
<v Speaker 1>and and really the traditions kind of carried on since then.

0:40:43.160 --> 0:40:46.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you come to this meeting or there's this

0:40:46.440 --> 0:40:50.600
<v Speaker 1>investment conference, and there's meetings happening everywhere on the street, corners,

0:40:50.680 --> 0:40:54.200
<v Speaker 1>in coffee shops at Starbucks, and free hotel lobby seat

0:40:54.280 --> 0:40:57.080
<v Speaker 1>has taken. I think half of my meetings are in

0:40:57.239 --> 0:41:00.520
<v Speaker 1>coffee shops and hotel lobbies while I'm here. It's really

0:41:00.560 --> 0:41:04.040
<v Speaker 1>just outstanding, you know, the level of participation by the

0:41:04.040 --> 0:41:08.320
<v Speaker 1>industry and after not being in person after two years,

0:41:08.680 --> 0:41:10.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's there's probably a little bit of a

0:41:11.160 --> 0:41:13.399
<v Speaker 1>drive here to get some stuff done that we're back

0:41:13.440 --> 0:41:16.000
<v Speaker 1>in person and you know, can see people face to

0:41:16.040 --> 0:41:18.640
<v Speaker 1>face across the table. So what is kind of the

0:41:18.719 --> 0:41:21.640
<v Speaker 1>vibe there in San Francisco as it relates to health

0:41:21.680 --> 0:41:25.279
<v Speaker 1>care is there? Is it generally maybe are there any

0:41:25.280 --> 0:41:27.520
<v Speaker 1>regulatory concerns that are out there or is it just

0:41:28.239 --> 0:41:31.680
<v Speaker 1>full speed ahead here? Yeah? I think it depends a

0:41:31.719 --> 0:41:35.080
<v Speaker 1>little bit on the subsector. You know, different there's different drivers,

0:41:35.080 --> 0:41:39.240
<v Speaker 1>whether you're in therapeutics or health care services or medical products.

0:41:39.239 --> 0:41:41.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean at the stuff I I look at, you know,

0:41:41.520 --> 0:41:43.759
<v Speaker 1>on the healthcare services side, which is what we're talking

0:41:43.800 --> 0:41:47.799
<v Speaker 1>about with CVS and and Oak Street, there's definitely, you know,

0:41:48.160 --> 0:41:51.279
<v Speaker 1>uh a theme here that you know, companies want to

0:41:51.600 --> 0:41:56.080
<v Speaker 1>expand their umbrella, move into new markets or adjacent markets,

0:41:56.760 --> 0:41:59.680
<v Speaker 1>and you know that's happening with Ernest. You know, we've

0:41:59.719 --> 0:42:03.359
<v Speaker 1>seen a fair number of you know, good announcements for

0:42:03.440 --> 0:42:07.200
<v Speaker 1>companies in kind of the product space, pre announcing strong revenues.

0:42:07.239 --> 0:42:10.000
<v Speaker 1>It seems like four Q is shaping up to be,

0:42:10.160 --> 0:42:12.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, pretty much in line for most companies, and

0:42:12.400 --> 0:42:15.319
<v Speaker 1>we're starting to see guidance on two thousand twenty three

0:42:15.400 --> 0:42:18.680
<v Speaker 1>that looks generally in line with consensus. So the the

0:42:18.760 --> 0:42:22.880
<v Speaker 1>underlying um you know, I think attitude here is is

0:42:22.880 --> 0:42:25.560
<v Speaker 1>pretty positive, and you know, we're still kind of waiting

0:42:25.560 --> 0:42:28.120
<v Speaker 1>to see how things shake out with we have a recession.

0:42:28.160 --> 0:42:29.800
<v Speaker 1>But you know, at the end of the day, people

0:42:30.040 --> 0:42:32.360
<v Speaker 1>still get sick, you know, still need to take drugs,

0:42:32.360 --> 0:42:34.520
<v Speaker 1>still need to go to the hospital and get procedures done.

0:42:34.760 --> 0:42:39.800
<v Speaker 1>Healthcare is a really defensive space alright, So, um, what

0:42:39.800 --> 0:42:42.839
<v Speaker 1>what should we expect in terms of the stocks this year?

0:42:42.880 --> 0:42:46.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean M and A is one thing, stock performance

0:42:46.160 --> 0:42:50.439
<v Speaker 1>is another, and everybody got wiped out last year? Um

0:42:50.800 --> 0:42:54.120
<v Speaker 1>house healthcare going to do this year? Yeah? Again, I

0:42:54.160 --> 0:42:57.480
<v Speaker 1>think it depends on the subsector. You know, I think

0:42:57.520 --> 0:42:59.960
<v Speaker 1>therapeutics had a rough year last year. We're starting to

0:43:00.040 --> 0:43:02.560
<v Speaker 1>see some good data come across from a number of

0:43:02.560 --> 0:43:05.360
<v Speaker 1>different companies. That's positive. You know, I think as M

0:43:05.400 --> 0:43:07.359
<v Speaker 1>and A maybe picks up in that sector as well,

0:43:07.400 --> 0:43:10.239
<v Speaker 1>that will support valuations. You know, some of the more

0:43:10.320 --> 0:43:14.640
<v Speaker 1>defensive names in healthcare, like I cover the drug distributors.

0:43:14.960 --> 0:43:17.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean they had banner years last year. You know,

0:43:17.520 --> 0:43:20.279
<v Speaker 1>McKesson I think was up fifty plus percent. You know,

0:43:20.360 --> 0:43:22.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't think they're likely to see another up fifty

0:43:22.600 --> 0:43:25.480
<v Speaker 1>percent year this year. But at the same time, the

0:43:25.719 --> 0:43:29.080
<v Speaker 1>back drop is positive, and you know, there's still still

0:43:29.120 --> 0:43:32.640
<v Speaker 1>things they can do to push revenue growth in EPs growth.

0:43:32.800 --> 0:43:35.239
<v Speaker 1>So you know, overall, I'm pretty positive on the on

0:43:35.320 --> 0:43:37.400
<v Speaker 1>the sector. You know, we had a tough year, like

0:43:37.440 --> 0:43:39.800
<v Speaker 1>I said, in some of the subsectors in two thousand

0:43:39.880 --> 0:43:42.600
<v Speaker 1>twenty two. But you know, for the most part, you know,

0:43:42.680 --> 0:43:45.400
<v Speaker 1>even if there's a recession, you know, the world economy

0:43:45.480 --> 0:43:48.880
<v Speaker 1>as it as it relates to healthcare, carry on, all right, Johnathan,

0:43:48.920 --> 0:43:51.480
<v Speaker 1>If you see any of those vaccine geniuses out there

0:43:51.520 --> 0:43:53.879
<v Speaker 1>that did such a great job, by a beer, put

0:43:53.880 --> 0:43:56.360
<v Speaker 1>it on my tab, okay, because they did a phenomenal

0:43:56.440 --> 0:43:58.680
<v Speaker 1>job and kind of change the at least my view

0:43:58.680 --> 0:44:00.239
<v Speaker 1>a little bit on some of the healthcare What bang

0:44:00.280 --> 0:44:02.920
<v Speaker 1>them about the high drug costs, But man, and we

0:44:02.960 --> 0:44:05.680
<v Speaker 1>needed the vaccines. Did they come through and come through quickly?

0:44:06.360 --> 0:44:07.880
<v Speaker 1>Uh So, pat on the back for a lot of

0:44:07.880 --> 0:44:13.160
<v Speaker 1>those folks. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.

0:44:13.560 --> 0:44:16.760
<v Speaker 1>You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts

0:44:16.880 --> 0:44:20.799
<v Speaker 1>or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm

0:44:20.800 --> 0:44:24.840
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at Matt Miller, three pt on Fall Sweeney.

0:44:24.880 --> 0:44:27.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you

0:44:27.520 --> 0:44:30.200
<v Speaker 1>can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio