1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: This is the Lab podcast with your host JJ ZACHERAJJ 2 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: zacher Reef. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this 3 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: episode eleven seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. 4 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:21,919 Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in. I hired Brandon Godoula to be 5 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 1: part of the Late Round Fantasy Football team back in January. 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,639 Speaker 1: Since then, he's helped with the Prospect Guide, specifically with 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 1: tight Ends. 8 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 2: He's helped me in. 9 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: Building out everything you're now seeing with Market Score, and 10 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: nearly every week he's sending out a newsletter to all 11 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: Late Round subscribers. That newsletter, by the way, totally free, 12 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:43,200 Speaker 1: and if you're not subscribed, you're missing out because Godula's 13 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: deep dives are really awesome and they're definitely worth your time. 14 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 1: One of his more recent newsletters had to do with 15 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 1: catchable targets. I think a lot of times there are 16 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: metrics out there that we assume regress in the exact 17 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: same way that a high rate one year means a 18 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: lower rate the next year, or a lower rate means 19 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: a higher one the next year. And while regression is 20 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: almost always inevitable, it doesn't always work out that cleanly. 21 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:08,639 Speaker 1: So I sat down with Brandon for a quick chat 22 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: about catchable targets both from a receiver and quarterback perspective, 23 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: because I wanted to see what we could take away 24 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: from his research for drafts this year. Now, before we 25 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 1: get into my conversation with him, I want to remind 26 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: you to check out the Late Round Draft Guide. 27 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 2: It's filled with game. 28 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 1: Theory, talk ways, the spot, breakouts, and bus draft strategy 29 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:29,959 Speaker 1: for this season, players, the target, players to avoid, and 30 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: so much more. It'll be out on July tenth, and 31 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:36,400 Speaker 1: you can pre order right now at a discount. Check 32 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 1: it all out over on lateround dot com. Now here's 33 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: my discussion with Brandon Goadola. So, Brandon, you sent a 34 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: newsletter blast out not long ago on catchable targets data. 35 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: Can you describe what you were aiming to do with that? 36 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 3: You have the goal pretty simple, just looking into catchable 37 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 3: target data to see zypically for wide receivers at the time, 38 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 3: in order to see if it were sticky year every year, 39 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 3: or if it could tell us about regression of any kind. 40 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 3: Identify regression not just for catchable target rate, but it's 41 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 3: impact on other related statistics. But you know, regression, as 42 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 3: we've talked about, just a big part of my process. 43 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 3: In the world of so much subjectivity and guessing about 44 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,799 Speaker 3: roles and how coaches will use certain players, it's really 45 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 3: one of the few things that we can just test 46 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 3: and say, like, look, I'm not even accounting for quarterback 47 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 3: changes or role changes, but if we see changes year 48 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 3: over year that we can kind of somewhat predict when 49 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 3: it comes to catchable target rate, that's really good information 50 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 3: for me to use in my process. So you know, 51 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 3: the thing with catchuble targets is, first of all, you 52 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 3: can you'll find very different numbers based on your source. 53 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 3: To just keep that in mind. I used Fantasy pros. 54 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 3: It was just really widely available, easy to see and 55 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 3: other people could use it if I want to. But 56 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 3: could be a function of wide receivers, could be a 57 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 3: function of quarterbacks. So ended up looking a little bit 58 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 3: into quarterbacks after the fact as well. But you know, 59 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 3: one of the things with the receivers that I think 60 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 3: is important, and it became as I got like really down, 61 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 3: like deep in the weeds with ketchuple target rate, it 62 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 3: just kind of hit me that, yeah, we look at 63 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 3: volume for a lot of these guys, but outside of 64 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 3: the top tier receivers who get a ton of volume. 65 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 3: What we're really kind of looking at is efficiency numbers 66 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 3: for these sort of outside tier two. Honestly, like once 67 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 3: you get into tier three, four or five, like these 68 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 3: types of wide receiver thirty and beyond type names, you're 69 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 3: really looking for like efficiency, whether that's per target, per 70 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 3: route numbers, and so you know, if you look at 71 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 3: two receivers, let's say both average ten yards of target, 72 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 3: one hundred total targets. But player A, let's say, gets 73 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 3: one hundred catchuple targets, player B gets seventy five, that 74 00:03:57,720 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 3: should matter. That should sort of say that player B 75 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 3: did more with his catchable targets. But you know, if 76 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 3: catchable target rate at the same time stays the same 77 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 3: because of player archetype or quarterback infrastructure, whatever you know, 78 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 3: then we also know that player as catchable target's going 79 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 3: to be higher than player b's ketchable targets. So you know, 80 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 3: of course it's not quite as simple as that. But 81 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:21,919 Speaker 3: just to answer your question directly, very clear, aim just 82 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 3: to see what we can learn from a prior season 83 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 3: catchable target rate as we project forward to the next year. 84 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:31,719 Speaker 1: I think a lot of fantasy managers, and especially I 85 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 1: mean even myself to a degree assume regression with catchable targets. 86 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 1: You know, I do want a caveat that regression in 87 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: and of itself can't just be blanketed and use the 88 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 1: same way from one statistic to the next. 89 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 2: But I think. 90 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: Intuitively catchable targets seem like something that would regress. You know, 91 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: one year you have a really low catchable targets rate, 92 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 1: and that's because you know, you had a backup quarterback 93 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: or the quarterback had an injury, or whatever the case 94 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 1: may be. And then the next just gets a little 95 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: bit better because that's just what happens with football and 96 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: larger sample sizes. 97 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 2: But is that what you found at a high level 98 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 2: with these guys. 99 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, at a high level for sure. And again I'm 100 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 3: not you know, sometimes when I'm doing regression, I will 101 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 3: look at like did this guy have the same quarterback 102 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 3: or you know, did did the quarterback was the week 103 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 3: one starter or different. I don't even do that because 104 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 3: sometimes I think if there's signal, there's signal, And sometimes 105 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,159 Speaker 3: you can get really bogged down in the details, and 106 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 3: sometimes you don't have to if the if the numbers 107 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 3: are strong enough. But yeah, it does seem like catchable targets. 108 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,919 Speaker 3: According to my research, which dated back to twenty seventeen, 109 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,840 Speaker 3: it really just looked at year over year data for 110 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 3: receivers who had at least fifty targets in you know, 111 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,720 Speaker 3: consecutive seasons. Yeah, so yeah, like the numbers do look 112 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 3: like they regress toward the league average, but it's not, 113 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 3: you know, super straightforward. The high level summary, effectively is 114 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 3: when you bucket players into quartiles. So basically, for equal buckets, 115 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 3: the players with really low catchable target rates in a 116 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 3: given season, they tend to see a noticeable uptick in 117 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 3: catchable targets the next season, which is what we'd expect. 118 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 3: They don't stay terrible forever. The top quartile by catchable 119 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 3: target rate, the guys getting a very high rate of 120 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:21,720 Speaker 3: catchable balls. They also regress but not necessarily to the 121 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:25,919 Speaker 3: league average, which I think both of those things makes sense. 122 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 3: League average, by the way, again just really depends on 123 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 3: the source that you're looking at. Again, I used Fantasy Pros, 124 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 3: but I looked at other sources too, and the general 125 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 3: trends for catchable target rates, like directionally, they're very strong. 126 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 3: You know, some guy might stand out a little bit differently, 127 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 3: but for the most part, so long as you're just 128 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 3: looking at the same source, I think you're going to 129 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 3: be fine. But yeah, like you when you see really 130 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:53,840 Speaker 3: low catchable target numbers, that probably some of that has 131 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 3: to do with your quarterback play, but also your archetype 132 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:01,160 Speaker 3: also a level of how much you contribute to that 133 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 3: in terms of getting open. But what I thought, what 134 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 3: I found just as interesting was, yeah, it's nice to 135 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 3: say players who really didn't see a lot of catchable 136 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 3: targets or specifically saw a high rate of uncatchable passes, like, yeah, 137 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 3: they kind of come back toward the league average. But 138 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 3: the players who get a lot of catchable targets, that 139 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 3: high rate of catchable targets, they do step back a 140 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 3: little bit, but they tend to kind of, as a 141 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 3: bucket be above the league, which not all these guys 142 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 3: are like super low eight dot guys, which I think 143 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 3: is interesting. There's just kind of good players who kind 144 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 3: of are able to see a lot of a lot 145 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 3: of catchable balls and make the most of it. Could 146 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 3: be catch radious stuff. And again that's one of those 147 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:46,239 Speaker 3: things with regards to your specific source for catchable targets, 148 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 3: like if a receiver makes an athletic play towards the ball. 149 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 3: That might be a penalty toward him. If it's catchable 150 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 3: and he can't quite get there. That just might be 151 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 3: different on how some sources charge. It could be totally 152 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 3: due to the quarterback, could be how much the receiver 153 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:04,239 Speaker 3: is doing. But yeah, I think again, at a high level, 154 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 3: we do see these numbers regress. And what was interesting too, 155 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 3: And one thing I didn't get into in the newsletter 156 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 3: and I would love to do more of is I 157 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 3: looked at yards per target and yards per ketchable target 158 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 3: year over year, and yards per ketchable target had a 159 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 3: much higher are squared year over year from these receivers 160 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 3: who had consecutive qualified seasons. It's about point zero six 161 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:34,439 Speaker 3: just yards per target, but yards per catchable target was 162 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 3: point one four almost point one five, which I thought 163 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 3: was interesting and it really led me to believe, like, 164 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:43,560 Speaker 3: I want to look more into this because in fantasy football, 165 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 3: we're definitely like maxed out with the stats we're looking at. 166 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,199 Speaker 3: There's a lot we can do with analytics, but as 167 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 3: we get more data, i'd love to just kind of 168 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 3: change like the divisi was it divisor I can never 169 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 3: pronounce that but just like change then you know, we 170 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 3: have routes like initially we had like yards per catch 171 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 3: then we had georgs per target, yards per route, Like, 172 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 3: let's look at like yards per catchable target. I want 173 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:11,200 Speaker 3: to do with more with that based on what I 174 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 3: what I found, because I do think that there's a 175 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 3: lot to this. 176 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, essentially the denominator of a fraction, right like essentially 177 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: the whatever we're whatever we're dividing by in those cases, 178 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 1: I do think that what you mentioned on there or 179 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,839 Speaker 1: in that answer is important, and that was the A 180 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 1: dot stuff, because a dot obviously gives us a sense 181 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 1: of the type of role that a player is playing, 182 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 1: right Like, if it's a super high A dot, then 183 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 1: he's he's usually more of a field stretcher. 184 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 2: If it's a lower a dot, then he's not. 185 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: And there is a relationship between lower a dot and 186 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: higher catchable targets, correct and then and then higher a 187 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 1: dot and and lower catchable targets. And so that probably 188 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: plays some role I would imagine in the stickiness year 189 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: over year because a player plays a similar role. You know, 190 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: a field stretching wide receiver who's been in the league 191 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 1: for four years, and that's the role that he plays 192 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 1: probably isn't gonna change that up all of a sudden, 193 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 1: you know, the following season. It's not like everyone, you know, 194 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: I mean, you could look at like Alec Pierce right now, 195 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 1: but like we don't know exactly what even that's going 196 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: to look like, you know, after what he's done throughout 197 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 1: his career. So I do think that that's part of 198 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,200 Speaker 1: probably part of the reason that we see like the 199 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: guys who are in the higher end bucket, you know, 200 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:25,199 Speaker 1: the higher quartile, where like you said, they're they're not 201 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: necessarily following because they might just have these like perfect 202 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 1: fantasy friendly roles that allow for higher catchable targets just 203 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 1: because they're in like the perfect A dot range, right, 204 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 1: and maybe the quarterback itself is just good at throwing 205 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 1: in that that A dot range. And so if the 206 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: if the situation, if the deployment is all sticky year 207 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 1: over year, then all of a sudden, you know, you 208 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: have a very similar catchable targets rate year over year, 209 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 1: and it's. 210 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 2: Able to be more reliable and not regress to some. 211 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 3: Mean Yeah, and I think that's interesting too, because we're 212 00:10:56,760 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 3: we're usually or historically, you know, at least I'll put 213 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 3: a frame it this way. I've looked for like upside guys, right, 214 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,840 Speaker 3: like higher A DOT receivers, kind of looking a little 215 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 3: bit down on some of the the high volume receivers 216 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 3: who don't get you know, the downfield work to the 217 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:17,839 Speaker 3: degree I was really surprised. And I dug into this 218 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 3: for the draft guide looking at market score, but like 219 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 3: market score is pretty it's still pretty high on Jamar Chase. 220 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 3: But I dug into Jamar Chase and like, his AID 221 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 3: dot's been going down year over year, like he had 222 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 3: a I think I think every single season. He definitely 223 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 3: had his lowest A DOT in twenty twenty five of 224 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 3: his career, running a lot more, running a lot more 225 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 3: out routes, hitch routes and stuff. So I think that's interesting. 226 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 3: But that's also like, rather than look at that as 227 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 3: a negative, he's getting catchuple passes, right, that's super relevant. 228 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 3: So I want to, like, I want to continue to 229 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:54,959 Speaker 3: explore this because I do think there's a lot of 230 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 3: signal here. 231 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:57,079 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah for sure. 232 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:00,440 Speaker 1: And then let's look at quarterbacks like do they regrets 233 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,560 Speaker 1: but they're on target rates too, Like, is that you 234 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 1: know similar mechanism as to what you saw with wide receivers. 235 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, so I basically did the same thing for quarterbacks, 236 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,439 Speaker 3: and the year over year are squared for poor th 237 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 3: row rates since twenty seventeen. Among quarterbacks with the one 238 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 3: hundred plus attempts in consecutive seasons, it's about point one six. 239 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 3: It's not bad for receivers overall, it's bout point one four. 240 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 3: But again, it comes down to the tails, right, the 241 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 3: guys who are really high or really low in these 242 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 3: poor th row rates. So it's basically the same story. 243 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 3: I could just kind of leave it at that, but 244 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 3: I think it also makes sense higher a DOC, you know, 245 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 3: quarterbacks versus lower a DOC quarterbacks or frankly, you know, 246 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 3: it's really really difficult to isolate out, like we know 247 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 3: which receivers in theory. In theory we know who's good. 248 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:51,079 Speaker 3: But with quarterback samples grow they touch the ball and 249 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 3: basically every single play they're in control, we can even 250 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 3: isolate out more like, okay, was he under pressure, Like 251 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 3: let's look at things from a clean pocket? Can you 252 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:03,079 Speaker 3: can you have catchuple balls from a clean pocket? These 253 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 3: types of things. So it's a lot easier and we 254 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:08,320 Speaker 3: would expect quarterback rate to be a little bit thickier 255 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 3: in it is. But yeah, the quarterbacks who throw, you know, 256 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 3: not a lot of poor passes, they do kind of 257 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 3: trend toward the league average. It's about point one or sorry, 258 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 3: one point seven percentage points higher the next year. In 259 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 3: terms of poor throw rate league average roughly again according 260 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 3: to Fantasy pros, it's about sixteen percent, just to simplify it, 261 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:32,559 Speaker 3: and so if you're at like a twelve percent, you 262 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 3: might be closer to thirteen and a half fourteen percent, 263 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 3: but you're still generally again as a bucket, going to 264 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 3: play better by that metric. And then the inverse, of course, 265 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 3: the guys who just throw a lot of bad passes 266 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 3: get a bit better at minus two point one percentage 267 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 3: points year of a year. But I will say both 268 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:56,319 Speaker 3: of these studies require you to have like a qualified 269 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,679 Speaker 3: season the next year. So if you're throwing a lot 270 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 3: of bad passes quarterback, you might not get one hundred 271 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 3: attempts the next year. Sam as receiver, if you're not 272 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 3: getting yourself open or if maybe okay, maybe you're still 273 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 3: on the low end of catchable target rate, but you 274 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 3: can't even get close to it. There's no catch radius 275 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 3: like you're not going to qualify for the next season, 276 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 3: so just keep that in mind. But again, to sum 277 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 3: it up, quarterback pretty similar. The tail end's going to 278 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 3: regress a little bit back toward the league average, but 279 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 3: we still tend to see the guys who have that 280 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 3: higher poor pass rate still going to be a little 281 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 3: bit higher than league average. As in general, from a 282 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 3: bucket standpoint, let's. 283 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 1: Look at twenty twenty six and let's just look at 284 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: favorable and unfavorable regression candidates in twenty twenty six and 285 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 1: see if there are any players based on the catchable 286 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: targets data that you think should regress Favorable'll start the 287 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 1: favorably side. 288 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 2: So are there players out. 289 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: There that you think might end up being undervalued because 290 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: of this and because of maybe the market not factoring 291 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,080 Speaker 1: in that regression, or just just players that will see. 292 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 2: Favorable regression within the statistic. 293 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 3: Yeah. So one thing that's interesting just league wide is 294 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 3: like adocs trending down, So poor throw rate is kind 295 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 3: of down a bit, which is nice, kind of more 296 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 3: catchable passes being thrown just as as ADAC gets depressed. 297 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 3: But there are still some favorable regression candidates entering twenty 298 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 3: twenty six. Some of these guys a little bit more 299 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 3: relevant for best ball. Someone like Ady Mitchell has actually 300 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 3: been a positive regression candidate for two straight years. He's 301 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 3: like he's got one of the few seasons. And again 302 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 3: this is Fantasy pros, which I think these numbers are 303 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 3: kind of low, but it just also hammers home the 304 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 3: difference in how like sites will source things. But he 305 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 3: had under a fifty percent catchable target rate last year, 306 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 3: and that seen again seems kind of crazy, but it's 307 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 3: just consistent. And again, directionally, they're all the same across 308 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 3: different sources. But Adie Mitchell for the Jets, and then 309 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 3: you know, possibly has improved quarterback play. I think that's interesting. 310 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 3: Darnold Mooney as well for the Giants, could have a 311 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 3: bit of a role depending on the health of Malik Neighbors. 312 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 3: So I think that's interesting. But some bigger and well, 313 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 3: I guess I'll throw in one more flyer just as 314 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 3: I'm going down the list. But alec Iomanner also hits. 315 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 3: But for some more directly fantasy relevant guys toward the 316 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 3: top end, Roma Dunza and Mike Evans saw a really 317 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 3: low catchable target rate. Evans, of course, didn't play a 318 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 3: full season. But I'll start with Adunza his a dot. 319 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 3: So again, a lot of this is kind of tied 320 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 3: to a dot, but a dot can change based on 321 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 3: your role as well. Aduneesay's his a dot was thirteen 322 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 3: point nine yards downfield in twenty twenty five. And what's 323 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 3: interesting is we're kind of comparing to Duneesay. We know 324 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 3: he's got like a foot issue, a whole sort of 325 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 3: new normal for him, so maybe his a dot does change. 326 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 3: And what's interesting is he has a very direct comparison 327 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,200 Speaker 3: of somebody who saw a really high catchable target rate 328 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 3: in Luther Burt. But Burden's a dot was only seven 329 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 3: point seven yards according to True Media. He again just 330 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 3: a super high catchable target rate that led to phenomenal 331 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 3: yards per route run. I'm not saying that was the 332 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 3: only case for it, but a really historic rookie season. 333 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 3: And if Burden starts pushing downfield more, he has a 334 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 3: quarterback who historically, in Caleb Williams, not the greatest catchable 335 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,440 Speaker 3: target rates you know from him. So I think that 336 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 3: that's interesting here. Where Adunese could see some more catchable balls, 337 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 3: Burden might see, you know, a little bit of a 338 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 3: higher uncatchable target rate, so just something to keep in mind. 339 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,119 Speaker 3: Mike Evans, though, I think is really interesting. You know, 340 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:36,919 Speaker 3: he's a little bit of a peculiar one for market score. 341 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 3: A lot of that has to do with age and 342 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 3: team competition for him, but he only played half a 343 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:45,479 Speaker 3: season last year. Uh, super outlier. Like I was, it 344 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:50,199 Speaker 3: was interesting to see Evans because for the archetype, he 345 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,400 Speaker 3: is like a downfield, contested catch guy. Like his catch 346 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 3: rate's been pretty solid all things considered, and now he 347 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 3: heads to a new offense. He's got Brock Purty, who 348 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,360 Speaker 3: consistently has been better than average in terms of poor 349 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 3: throw rate, so you know, should get a lot of 350 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 3: on target passes to Mike Evans, So I think that's interesting. 351 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 3: Some other names though, surprisingly DeVante Adams, probably because you 352 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,639 Speaker 3: know ninety percent of his targets are just contested in 353 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 3: the end zone. Alec Pierce and a Mecca Abuka also 354 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:20,120 Speaker 3: make the list. I mean there's a lot of big 355 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 3: names in the newsletter too. I could you know, rattle 356 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 3: off a few more and Jerry Judy, who I know 357 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,240 Speaker 3: you've been kind of interested in in terms of best 358 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 3: ball as a late flyer. I think I think that 359 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 3: that's kind of the thing that is interesting, like the 360 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 3: late the late flyers for best ball is really how 361 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 3: I'm thinking about this. Early on XAVI, You're worthy Nico Collins, 362 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:46,639 Speaker 3: Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson, T Higgins, Quentin Johnston, Marvin Harrison, 363 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,119 Speaker 3: and Michael Wilson and surprisingly Drake London. But I guess 364 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,399 Speaker 3: he's also another one of those like contested catch guys. 365 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 3: So again, it was kind of a strange year. A 366 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 3: lot of uncatchable targets according to Fantasy pros last year, 367 00:18:57,520 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 3: so you do see a lot of names who could 368 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 3: get you know, a better a better go of it 369 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:02,920 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty six. 370 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 2: What about on the other side for the unfavorable candidates. 371 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, so again you have to keep in mind that 372 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 3: historically speaking, we see this is a little bit stickier. 373 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 3: But at the top of the list of Stefon Diggs, 374 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 3: where you know where he winds up. You know for 375 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 3: twenty twenty six it will depend on where he lands. 376 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 3: But pretty low aidot or like lower than a receiver average. 377 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 3: It wasn't terrible or anything last year for him. Already 378 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 3: talked about this, but Luther burden just like a crazy 379 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 3: efficiency season, which I think is interesting. Two point seven 380 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 3: four yards per route run, which is the highest yards 381 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 3: per route run among a rookie receiver with two hundred 382 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:43,640 Speaker 3: plus routes since twenty twenty according to True Media, caught 383 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 3: forty seven of sixty passes. Just you know, crazy season there. 384 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:50,680 Speaker 3: And then we get into two really interesting names who 385 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 3: could if you are taking this very literally and kind 386 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 3: of missing the big picture, they could scare you. But 387 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:01,360 Speaker 3: Pooka and Nakua and Zay Flowers. Pok just a good 388 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 3: reminder that, like I would of bet, he has a 389 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 3: lot to do with like getting after passes and making 390 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 3: more balls catchable than he probably should. But Nikua, you know, 391 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:13,959 Speaker 3: if you look historically, he's had at least a seventy 392 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 3: three percent catchable target rate in each of his last 393 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 3: three seasons according to Fantasy Pros. So he's one of 394 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 3: the types of players who just makes things happen. He 395 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 3: does get a lot of you know, targets near the 396 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 3: line of scrimmage, but also a really higher rate of 397 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 3: downfield targets, which is interesting as well. So I don't 398 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 3: want to take this as like a negative for Puka. 399 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 3: By any means kind of similar for his A Flowers, 400 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,040 Speaker 3: who I keep liking more and more this year in 401 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 3: Best Ball, I keep trying to get more exposure to him. 402 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:42,639 Speaker 3: He's increased his yards per route run in each of 403 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 3: the last three seasons one point eight six, two point 404 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 3: four to seven, and two point five to five, coming 405 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 3: off of a career best catchable target rate, and like 406 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 3: history says, that'll scale back but still not necessarily be terrible. 407 00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:00,199 Speaker 3: Some other names on the list would be Koaloshiaki, what 408 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 3: would you'd expect would kind of stay stay high, Michael Pittman, 409 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 3: Jackson Smith, and Jigba Jamison Williams, which was surprising, but 410 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 3: also a mon Ross Saint Brown, which kind of speaks 411 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:16,159 Speaker 3: to pretty good offense, good quarterback, and Rashid Rice. So 412 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 3: I'm less like, I'm less concerned about the guys with 413 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 3: high ketchuble target rates and more interested in the guys 414 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 3: with low catchable target rates. 415 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, it makes sense, and a lot of those guys, 416 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 1: you know, like you're saying, Khalil Shakier, Oh that makes sense. 417 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,680 Speaker 1: It's obviously you know he's gonna see like a four 418 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:34,639 Speaker 1: yard a dot. You know, it's just the way they 419 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,439 Speaker 1: use him in an offense, So clearly it's kind of 420 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 1: kind of hard to screw up a target in that 421 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 1: kind of environment. So the last question I have for you, 422 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: what do you think the main takeaway is here? 423 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 3: Right? 424 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: Like, everyone just heard a bunch of names and hopefully 425 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,400 Speaker 1: you jotted some of those down and at least made 426 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 1: you think about players a little bit differently. But do 427 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 1: you think that we should weigh this more into our evaluation. 428 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 1: Do you think it's already being captured or do you 429 00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 1: think that some people might be overrating it? You know, 430 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,880 Speaker 1: like there's a situation with like a Mecca Buka right now, 431 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 1: for instance, where it's really easy to look at what 432 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 1: went down with him last year and say, oh, he 433 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,120 Speaker 1: had a really and I've done this on the show 434 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 1: many times, you know, like, oh he had a poor 435 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 1: catchable targets rate. 436 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,360 Speaker 2: That's gonna regress. He'll be a lot better next year. 437 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 1: No matter what, is there any like major takeaway that 438 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 1: you have from the study? 439 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,440 Speaker 3: Well, you mentioned hopefully people drotted these names down, and clarify, 440 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 3: all these names that I talked about were in the newsletter, 441 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 3: So if it's in your inbox, check that out. And 442 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 3: if not, you should definitely sign up because we've got 443 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 3: some cool stuff each and every week at the Late 444 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,679 Speaker 3: Round newsletter. But you know, I think it's difficult to 445 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 3: know because this is such a small sliver of the 446 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 3: puzzle and I sometimes don't know. Like, again, a lot 447 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 3: of my process is built around regression. Sometimes I don't 448 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 3: know what people are seeing in certain players to make 449 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,359 Speaker 3: them higher or lower. One thing that's really interesting and 450 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:54,360 Speaker 3: this is not a catchable target situation, but like Matthew 451 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,400 Speaker 3: Stafford's touchdown rate is one of the most glaringly obvious 452 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 3: regression spots this year year. But for the first time, 453 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 3: a quarterback who doesn't rush, who had like an almost 454 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 3: eight percent touchdown rate, he's not being drafted as like 455 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,400 Speaker 3: a top ten guy. So it's like people are kind 456 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 3: of learning. And I don't know if I see it 457 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:17,639 Speaker 3: totally in terms of catchuple target data, just because I 458 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:21,159 Speaker 3: think something like scoring rate, like touchdown rate is a 459 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 3: lot more talked about and a lot more present than 460 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:27,639 Speaker 3: catchable target rate. But like, I think that we're getting 461 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 3: smarter as a collective, and so I do think that 462 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,719 Speaker 3: this is starting to be factored in more as it's 463 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,359 Speaker 3: really easy just to you know, more people talk about 464 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:41,160 Speaker 3: things like catchable target rate. But again, when like if 465 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 3: one source says, like if you have three sources and 466 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 3: two say, at this guy's kind of average and catchable 467 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,640 Speaker 3: target rate, and one source says like, this guy didn't 468 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 3: see any catchable targets, Like, that's where it gets hard 469 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 3: to like factor this in because it is a very 470 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 3: peculiar stat So it is one like one thing I'll 471 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,960 Speaker 3: say for sure is I actually want to factor this 472 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 3: in more because again, the spots I'm always looking for 473 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 3: are the things that we can kind of verify and 474 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 3: whenever I can, almost I want to say lazily, because 475 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,120 Speaker 3: like I did the work and like check things out. 476 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 3: But when you don't have to account for like okay, 477 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:17,440 Speaker 3: but if he changes teams, it doesn't really fit. It's like, yeah, overall, 478 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,240 Speaker 3: like you see this being sticky enough that there's signal 479 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 3: in it, and I think that we should all be 480 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,679 Speaker 3: factoring it in a little bit more. Again, that doesn't 481 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 3: mean we saw Adie Mitchell on the low end. I 482 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 3: think Adie Mitchell was a little bit polarizing. Sorry, we 483 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:33,600 Speaker 3: saw him on the low end for two straight years, 484 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,760 Speaker 3: so it didn't necessarily bounce back. I think some people 485 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 3: were like, this guy's not good enough. But you could 486 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 3: just easily say, like he's due for like a league 487 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 3: average catchuple target rate. You know, for him in particular 488 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 3: this year, it's it's it might matter. He's not going 489 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,160 Speaker 3: to be like an Alpha. We know that. But when 490 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 3: you apply that kind of logic to an a Mecca 491 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,640 Speaker 3: Abuka or you say, hey, mec Evans, you know, kind 492 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 3: of a weak efficiency season, but Baker wasn't fully himself. 493 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,959 Speaker 3: Evans wasn't fully in self in eight games. Like maybe 494 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 3: that's how you sell yourself on Mike Evans having just 495 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,160 Speaker 3: a massive season, And I think you can do that 496 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 3: while not really getting out over your skis or making 497 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 3: things kind of just making things up and saying it's 498 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 3: gonna get better because you know, we've done the research 499 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 3: and it's like historically speaking, yeah, it's it is going 500 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 3: to get better for these guys. 501 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:21,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it, man, I love it. 502 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 1: Let everyone know where they can find you and the 503 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,639 Speaker 1: good stuff you're working on, which is the same stuff 504 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 1: that I'm working on for the most part right now. 505 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 3: Yeah. I'm I'm occasionally on Twitter at Godula thirteen, gd 506 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 3: Ula one three. I'm on Blue Sky at Godula and 507 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 3: then everything else I do Lateround dot Com, Late Round Newsletter, 508 00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 3: Draft Guide. Very excited for that this year. 509 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:49,400 Speaker 1: Yes, super excited again. July tenth, that's when it's coming out. 510 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,399 Speaker 1: We are at the finish line with it. We're working hard. 511 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:55,400 Speaker 1: You know, there's gonna be some long hours these next 512 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 1: two weeks. 513 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 2: But it will be out. 514 00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:58,640 Speaker 1: Make sure you check it all out lateround dot com, 515 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 1: and most importantly, guys, check out the Lateround newsletter because 516 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 1: Brandon is putting so much work into that every single week, 517 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: and their studies like this catchuple targets one that he's 518 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 1: putting out there consistently. This just happened to be one 519 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:12,359 Speaker 1: that we turned into a podcast because this is just 520 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 1: a particularly interesting topic. 521 00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 2: But there's a lot of other topics that he's dug 522 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 2: into already, so check all that out. 523 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,439 Speaker 1: The newsletter's free, so you don't have to pay anything, 524 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:24,880 Speaker 1: but it's all at lateround dot com. As always, everyone, 525 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:26,399 Speaker 1: thanks for tuning in.