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Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your best. It's me Joey P. Joe P's a P

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Speaker 1: and this is BP NFL, and it's week three and

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Speaker 1: Tuesdays we like to take a look into the lines

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Speaker 1: and kind of dig a little deeper from the stats

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Speaker 1: point of view, and of course, nobody better to do

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Speaker 1: that within the data scientists himself, Sam Hoppin, Who's gonna

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Speaker 1: give us some numbers that can influence our bets in

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Speaker 1: Week three? We're also gonna give you survivor pool picks.

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Speaker 1: I am eliminated. I can't believe the Ravens lost at

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Speaker 1: home last week. Sam, embarrassing, horrible, So you could take

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Speaker 1: my pick with a grain of salt. Just keep listening

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Speaker 1: to Sam. He's still alive. But we're coming off a

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Speaker 1: Monday n football game last night, Sam, I want to

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Speaker 1: talk to you real quick, because the analytics have changed

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Speaker 1: a lot in football, and last night I'm watching the

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Speaker 1: game and I'm on massive amounts of cold medicine because

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Speaker 1: I am sick, and I don't think that was influencing

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Speaker 1: my thought process at the time, but I'm watching them.

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Speaker 1: A Kimera was fourth and goal where they were just

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Speaker 1: fourth and close down by the goal line, and early

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Speaker 1: in that game, the Eagles decided not take that three.

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Speaker 1: They could have kicked the field goal gotten some points,

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Speaker 1: and said that you're to go for it early on,

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Speaker 1: And all I kept thinking about is you know that's

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Speaker 1: gonna haaunt you later in this game. I feel like,

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Speaker 1: if you don't get it, get points, especially against teams

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Speaker 1: that have a pretty good defense, and the Falcons have

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Speaker 1: proven that defense is gonna be pretty good. They were

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Speaker 1: pretty good against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were pretty good

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Speaker 1: last night. Even though AJ Brown wasn't there on the

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Speaker 1: field for the Philadelphia Eagles, they still had Smith, they

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Speaker 1: still had Barkley and Hursts, still a lot of weapons

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Speaker 1: to deal with. How often do these models take into

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Speaker 1: a fact, you know, into account what's going on in

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Speaker 1: these decisions and what the other team does well or

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Speaker 1: doesn't do well, because you're seeing a lot more of

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Speaker 1: this in the NFL, where teams are going forward on

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Speaker 1: these fourth down situations in different spots. I just thought

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Speaker 1: that was a really weird one. And it's not kind

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Speaker 1: of like I'm not an Eagles fan. I'm just not like,

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Speaker 1: oh my god, I'm going backwards here looking at this

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Speaker 1: and hindsight is twenty twenty. I said it while it happened,

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Speaker 1: and sure enough, at the end of the day, it

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Speaker 1: won me money because they lost and the Falcons covered.

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Speaker 1: But what do you make of that decision? And what

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Speaker 1: do you make of some of these new analytics and

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Speaker 1: how they're working into some of these decisions that coaches make.

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Speaker 2: I do think it is helping a lot of teams.

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Speaker 2: And most of these models do not take team strengths

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Speaker 2: into account or you know, if they take into account

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Speaker 2: what the teams have done in the game so much

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Speaker 2: as like what the score is. So if a team

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Speaker 2: has scored twenty six points, like that's accounted for in

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Speaker 2: set model in addition to like the score differential at

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Speaker 2: that point. But it's you know, analytics is this black

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Speaker 2: box term. I mean, you hear Joe buck on the

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Speaker 2: on the broadcast last night saying analytics would say go

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Speaker 2: for it, well.

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Speaker 1: The light green and the dark green and all that stuff, like,

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Speaker 1: oh jez.

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Speaker 2: What it really is again is it's a model that

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Speaker 2: takes into account win probability, what the win probably probability

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Speaker 2: would be if a team converted that fourth down versus

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Speaker 2: punting it away or taking a field goal and making

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Speaker 2: said field goal.

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Speaker 3: And you know, it's it's as.

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Speaker 2: Simple as like in the final fourth down decision for

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Speaker 2: the Eagles last night, it was fourth and three, the

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Speaker 2: clock was stopped, the Falcons didn't have any timeouts. If

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Speaker 2: they get that first down, the game is over because

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Speaker 2: they can kneel it out. The Falcons can't stop the

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Speaker 2: clock they're up by three. Instead, they choose to kick

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Speaker 2: the field goal, go up by six, and the Falcons

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Speaker 2: march right down the field and going up six versus

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Speaker 2: being you know, being up three. There's been some studies

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Speaker 2: about the fact that that's not that great because it

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Speaker 2: incentivizes the other team to go and score a touchdown

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Speaker 2: and to win the game. If you're up by three,

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Speaker 2: the other team probably is going to be a little

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Speaker 2: less aggressive and just try to kick the field goal

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Speaker 2: to tie it. So there there is some you know,

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Speaker 2: mental aspects to it, if you will, you know, the

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Speaker 2: players need to buy into it, for sure. We've seen

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Speaker 2: them with the Lions that Dan Campbell is I'm very

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Speaker 2: aggressive with his play calling on fourth down. But the

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Speaker 2: players buy into it, and they know the risks and

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Speaker 2: the rewards of those types of play calls. And you

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Speaker 2: know you mentioned before this that we started recording momentum

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Speaker 2: and what does that have to do with it now.

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Speaker 2: Momentum is a very hot button topic in the analytics

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Speaker 2: community because there are many who agree that it exists,

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Speaker 2: but that it's very difficult to actually measure what that is.

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Speaker 1: Right, of course it is, but I think anybody who

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Speaker 1: played a sport in their whole life knows. And I

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Speaker 1: mean I still coach you flag football every weekend. I

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Speaker 1: can tell you you come up with a pick six

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Speaker 1: in a game, that momentum happens, it switches. You see

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Speaker 1: the other team lose a little steam. It just happened

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Speaker 1: twice in our game this weekend. We had two pick six's.

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Speaker 1: You could see the other team just deflated and that

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Speaker 1: was it for them. Look, it's a great conversation. I

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Speaker 1: think it's important to point out too, because certain coaches

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Speaker 1: that have certain style, you have to pay attention to

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Speaker 1: these things as you're looking at some of these lines

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Speaker 1: because they are going to come up. Moral of the story,

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Speaker 1: Take the points. Take the point, especially if you think

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Speaker 1: it's going to be a close game here with the

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Speaker 1: team on the other side's gonna have a good defense.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to week three and turn the page.

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Speaker 1: Before we do, just a reminder we're giving away at

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Speaker 1: Nick Chubb signed helmet. That's right, and if you want

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Speaker 1: courtesy of our friends at Pristineauction dot com, all you

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Speaker 1: need to do is at the Bettingpros dot com slash contest,

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Speaker 1: complete the form and either download the Betting Pros app,

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Speaker 1: leave a review on the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe

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Speaker 1: new episodes are up, and subscribe to the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel. All right, let's start here with some of

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Speaker 1: the stat lines that need to matter and some of

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Speaker 1: the potential movement that we might see this week. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with the Dolphins and Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: So obviously it seems like Tua is not going to

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Speaker 2: play in this game. Scott Thompson is going to start

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Speaker 2: for the Dolphins, despite the Dolphins adding I believe Snoop

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Speaker 2: Punkley to their roster. That sounds like more of a

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Speaker 2: depth thing from what Mike McDaniel was saying. But when

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Speaker 2: we see backup quarterback situations, we tend to see those

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Speaker 2: teams who are starting to backup take a little bit

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Speaker 2: of money and move the line, I guess in their favor.

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Speaker 2: And there have been some studies in the past that

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Speaker 2: show that the value of a backup quarterback being played

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Speaker 2: is actually a bit undervalued in the sense that the

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Speaker 2: line moves too far against that backup quarterback or the

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Speaker 2: market downgrades that team a little bit too much, especially

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Speaker 2: in the first week. So I think, you know, I

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Speaker 2: think the game opened up around six. It's sitting at

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Speaker 2: five in favor of the Seahawks. You can see five

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Speaker 2: and a half in some places as well. But wonder

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Speaker 2: if we see a little bit more of a bounce

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Speaker 2: back here, especially with how good the Dolphins scheme is

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Speaker 2: and the way that Mike McDaniel can scheme players open.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they still have Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and

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Speaker 2: Devon h Chan to create explosive plays as long as

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Speaker 2: you're getting the ball in their hands. So that's something

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Speaker 2: I'm certainly monitoring. You know, that's in the range where

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Speaker 2: it could be a potential teaser Leg four for the

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Speaker 2: Seahawks if it does get back up to two six

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Speaker 2: and a half. But I think it'll most likely go

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Speaker 2: towards the Dolphins in this game.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's funny because we were talking about this

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Speaker 1: game yesterday Andrew and I on the look Ahead Show,

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Speaker 1: and we both said the same thing, which was, you know,

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Speaker 1: so far the Seahawks have played the Patriots and have

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Speaker 1: played the Denver Broncos. Neither of those two teams necessarily

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Speaker 1: have an onset of incredible weapon to work with right

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Speaker 1: in that offense. So this is gonna be a real test.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's been talking about the Seattle Seahawks defense. This is

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Speaker 1: much more of a test here where you get Tyreek

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Speaker 1: Hill and Watta on a chance. So I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: I'm on the Miami side of this game. Let's go

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Speaker 1: to the next one here, Packers at Titans. A Packers

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Speaker 1: game away running the football. I know seven hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty two times they ran the football and look, it

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Speaker 1: was smart. Stick to the game plan. Don't let Malik

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Speaker 1: Willis grew things up. This is the Malik Willis revenge game.

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Speaker 1: And of course will Levis continues to literally hand the

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Speaker 1: ball and hand games over to the other team. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if he can ever break that. But what

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Speaker 1: are you looking at in this game when you're talking

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Speaker 1: about the odds, you're talking about potential movement in this one,

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Speaker 1: Because so far, Malik Willis has more wins this year

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Speaker 1: than will Levis.

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Speaker 2: So there's a mix of two and a half and

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Speaker 2: threes out there. Those two and a halfs are just

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Speaker 2: quite a bit towards the three. So pretty much the

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Speaker 2: Titans favorite by three at this point. But last week

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Speaker 2: Jordan Love did not practice at all, but he was

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Speaker 2: questionably made questionable on the Friday game report, then he

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Speaker 2: was downgraded to doubtful, and then obviously did not play

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Speaker 2: on Sunday. Now I'm guessing this was a little bit

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Speaker 2: of gamesmanship on the part of the Packers, and I

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Speaker 2: don't think that Jordan Love plays, but I do think

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Speaker 2: it it is more likely than not than that Love

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Speaker 2: is back sooner rather than later, and the fact that

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Speaker 2: he was questionable again whether that was gamesmanship or not.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a pack I don't think it was

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Speaker 1: a shot he was playing in that game.

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Speaker 2: Zam, Well, there might have been a shot he was

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Speaker 2: playing in that game if he gets the right shot.

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Speaker 2: But I do think that there is and this is

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Speaker 2: maybe something to monitor just with the Packers in general

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Speaker 2: over the next couple of weeks. But it seems like

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Speaker 2: there's little bit more optimism out of their camp in

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Speaker 2: terms of this injury not truly being as bad as

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Speaker 2: what the NFL world initially thought it would be. So again,

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Speaker 2: Jordan Love is a huge, huge, huge upgrade over Malike

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Speaker 2: willis even a hobbled Jordan Love. So something to certainly

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Speaker 2: minitor over the next couple of days.

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Speaker 1: All right, next game we're going to talk about here

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Speaker 1: the Panthers at Raiders, So change a quarterback here, so

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Speaker 1: let's talk about how that's going to impact the line.

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Speaker 1: As Bryce Young got two games and that was enough

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Speaker 1: for new head coach Dave Canalas we'll see if Bryce

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Speaker 1: Young can sit and learn a little bit and maybe

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Speaker 1: get to the crack at things. But Andy Dalton's going

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Speaker 1: to take over the reins as predicted on the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Pros podcast Monday Morning by Pat fitz Moore. A shout

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Speaker 1: out to FITZI on that one. So how does that

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Speaker 1: impact the line in your opinion for Panthers Raiders?

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Speaker 2: So this game open with the Raiders as seven point favorites,

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Speaker 2: it's now Raiders down to five and a half point favorites.

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Speaker 2: So clearly the market says that Andy Dalton is worth

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Speaker 2: about a point and a half compared to Bryce Young

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Speaker 2: on the spread. I think a lot of people expected

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Speaker 2: that when if I guess if and when this quarterback

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Speaker 2: change was was going to happen. So again, there are

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Speaker 2: there are fives out there, five and a half's out

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Speaker 2: there from what I can see on the board right now. Again,

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Speaker 2: I don't know where this line is going to go

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Speaker 2: because there could be a lot more people who buy

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Speaker 2: into Andy Dalton and what he can provide for that offense,

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Speaker 2: which is a base level floor that Bryce Young was

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Speaker 2: just absolutely destroying with his play. And the Raiders haven't

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Speaker 2: you know, they beat the Ravens last week, but they

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Speaker 2: haven't been you know, gamebusters in terms of how they've performed.

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Speaker 2: Their rushing offense is among the league worst, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of with the Panthers, like there's a chance these

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Speaker 2: teams don't combine for more than seventy rushing yards together.

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Speaker 2: But all that to say, with any quarterback change, I

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Speaker 2: think later in the week there could be some fluctuation

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Speaker 2: in terms of where this line goes.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's take a quick break here before we

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Speaker 1: get to a look at the futures market, and remind

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Speaker 1: everybody about downloading the Betting Pros app right now for

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Speaker 1: iOS or Android and sync your sportsbooks for free, because

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Speaker 1: automatically you could track all your bets across major sportsbooks

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Speaker 1: all in one spot. You can monitor your bet performances

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Speaker 1: by sport and by bet type and including game picks,

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Speaker 1: props and parlays great custom betting systems as well to

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Speaker 1: find winning trends and profitable opportunities. And can get a

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Speaker 1: free trial too of Betting Pros Premium right now by

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Speaker 1: downloading the app for the first time and activating your

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Speaker 1: trial on the upgrade screen, Betting Pros start betting smarter,

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Speaker 1: not harder. All right, let's take a look at the

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Speaker 1: futures market here. I don't think any of us really

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Speaker 1: thought that the only undefeated team in the AFC North

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Speaker 1: would be the Pittsburgh Steelers after the first two weeks

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Speaker 1: of the season. But here's where we are. The raven

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Speaker 1: are owing to their plus one ninety the Bengals are

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Speaker 1: owing to their plus one ninety five. The Steelers are

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Speaker 1: plus three forty now, and the Cleveland Browns who are

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Speaker 1: one to one or plus four fifty now. The Bengals

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Speaker 1: kind of have their back up against the wall this week.

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Speaker 1: I think they will come up with a victory. More

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Speaker 1: on them later, but this is certainly an odd start

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Speaker 1: to the year for this division. Sam, what do you

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Speaker 1: make out of this? Look into the future for the

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Speaker 1: AFC North.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Mike Tomlin working at voodoo once again, just gonna

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Speaker 2: sail right to that as nine and eight level season,

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Speaker 2: potentially sneak this Steelers team into the playoffs. But I

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Speaker 2: think it's really between the Bengals and Ravens at this point.

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Speaker 2: But my pick right now to win this division is

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Speaker 2: still the Cincinnati Bengals if you look at the Ravens

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Speaker 2: and sort of how they've played. Again, I mentioned this

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Speaker 2: a couple of times in the preseason, but the brain

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Speaker 2: drain that they had on defense, specifically with so many

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Speaker 2: coaches leaving for other opportunities. They had a bunch of

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Speaker 2: turnover personnel wise on the defense and both on the

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Speaker 2: offensive line and on the offensive line specifically, you can

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Speaker 2: see how that's impacting the Ravens offense. You look at

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Speaker 2: the next three games for the Ravens, they play at

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys this week, they host the Bills the following week,

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Speaker 2: and then they go to Cincinnati in Week five. So

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Speaker 2: there's a chance that they start zero to five or

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Speaker 2: one in four potentially. So if you want to buy

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Speaker 2: into the Ravens, I think the time to do so

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Speaker 2: is a couple of weeks from now. But again, the Bengals,

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Speaker 2: they look tough against the Chiefs. They could have come

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Speaker 2: away with that win if not for the past interference

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Speaker 2: on that final drive and allowing the Chiefs to score

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Speaker 2: that field goal. Burrow looked healthier than he did in

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Speaker 2: Week one against the Patriots. It sounds like they're going

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Speaker 2: to get t Higgins back soon as soon as this

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Speaker 2: week even And I think the Week one loss was

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Speaker 2: a little bit fluky to the New England Patriots. So

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Speaker 2: again you'll see a bunch of splits and stats about

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Speaker 2: oh and two teams making the playoffs and all that

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Speaker 2: sort of stuff. But Michael Lopez, who works out the NFL,

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Speaker 2: did some research and really there's no difference in or

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Speaker 2: not much of a difference in a team going oh

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Speaker 2: and two in weeks one and two and a team

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Speaker 2: going oh and two in weeks thirteen and fourteen as

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Speaker 2: it relates to their playoff chances. You know, when you

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Speaker 2: looked at each you know sequential, right, And I'm.

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Speaker 1: Both and both the Bengals and Ravens took a loss

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Speaker 1: to the Chiefs, who are still the reigning defending Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl champion, So you can understand taking that with a

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Speaker 1: great assault. And I mean, if the doctor could possibly

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Speaker 1: prescribe a better matchup for Joe Burrowing Company and Jamar Chase,

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Speaker 1: it's the Washington Secondary, So I'd be looking for the

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Speaker 1: breakout here. I think it's time for the Cincinnati Bengals

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Speaker 1: to get on track, and I think this is the

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Speaker 1: week that they do. Let's move forward here to some

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Speaker 1: of the key stats and numbers here that you're going

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Speaker 1: to be paying attention to in week three, and let's

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Speaker 1: start with Jayden Daniels and some trends that you've seen here.

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Speaker 2: Sam So right now among thirty two qualified passers, so

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Speaker 2: far this year, Jayden Daniels has the fastest time to

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Speaker 2: throw at two point three to three seconds per throw.

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Speaker 2: He has the second lowest average depth of target at

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Speaker 2: four point seven yards, and behind him is Patrick Mahomes,

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Speaker 2: which is a story for another day. That's that's kind

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Speaker 2: of wow. But Zach Ertz and Terry McLaurin right now

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Speaker 2: lead the Commanders with about a nine point three to

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Speaker 2: nine point two yard eight out respectively, but neither of

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Speaker 2: them have been particularly great after they catch a lot

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Speaker 2: of Jayden Daniels quick passes have also gone to the

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Speaker 2: running backs Brian Robinson and Austin Ecklers, so that's.

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Speaker 3: Something to consider.

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Speaker 2: But we saw this preseason that the Cliff Kingsbury offense

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Speaker 2: is going to be again quick passes, short passes, get

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Speaker 2: the ball out of his hands. Yeah, you know, try

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Speaker 2: to protect Jadan Daniels from the weakness in the offensive line.

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Speaker 2: And I think this is just an overarching point for

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Speaker 2: Commanders pass catches if you're looking at their player props

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Speaker 2: is to target the under on their yards and the

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Speaker 2: overs on their receptions. The shorter passes are going to

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Speaker 2: lead to more completable passes because they're closer to the quarterback.

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Speaker 2: But again with the lack of explosive explosiveness after the catch,

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Speaker 2: I just don't think they're going to be able to

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Speaker 2: get to their yards as much as they would in

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Speaker 2: a different offense. So I think there's some options to

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Speaker 2: to play some inverse correlations here too, you know, take

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Speaker 2: over three and a half receptions for over five receptions

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Speaker 2: and under the you know, sort of forty five and

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Speaker 2: a half yard line, because again they're going to be

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Speaker 2: short area targets. They're going to get a lot of catches,

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Speaker 2: but just aren't going to produce from them.

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Speaker 1: I think that's change over time as Daniels gets more comfortable,

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Speaker 1: I hope anyway, because otherwise all my Terry McLaurin shares

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Speaker 1: are going to be flushed down the toilet pretty soon.

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Speaker 1: That's something we need to He's a young quarterback. He

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Speaker 1: started two games. I think he goes on, he'll have

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Speaker 1: more confidence throwing the ball downfield. But so far, the

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Speaker 1: early stats certainly prove what you're talking about. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: again going backwards and talking about Skyler Thompson is going

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Speaker 1: to take over for the Miami Dolphins under center for

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Speaker 1: at least this week. We'll see if Huntley becomes the

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Speaker 1: guy long term, but certainly a lot of heavy usage.

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Speaker 1: Last time we saw the Dolphins of the run game,

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Speaker 1: which is not unlike him, but for h HM, that's something

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Speaker 1: got to be careful of because the durability is something

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Speaker 1: we're concerned with. So he does have a little extra

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Speaker 1: time having played on Thursday to recuperate. Let's talk about

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins Thompson this running attack and how we can

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Speaker 1: approach it in Week three from a betting standpoint, So.

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Speaker 2: This is actually more about the passing attack for the

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Speaker 2: Dolphins running backs.

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Speaker 3: This is the staff from Jake Trivy.

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Speaker 2: Von is tied for the lead in targets among running

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Speaker 2: backs with fourteen. Skylar Thompson's career running back target rate

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Speaker 2: is twenty seven percent excuse me, which is higher than

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Speaker 2: any Week one NFL starter and much higher than tuas

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Speaker 2: nineteen percent target rate. To running Backsmike McDaniel earlier this

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Speaker 2: week also said that he can make a case for

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Speaker 2: Han getting even more touches. I think he got twenty

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Speaker 2: nine touches in the Thursday night game against the Bills.

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Speaker 2: Said it's not hard to give guys opportunities that really

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Speaker 2: are thirsting for the ball, they're going to do something

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Speaker 2: with it. He's and all he's done is give us

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Speaker 2: more reasons to give him the ball.

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Speaker 3: So we'll see if books have adjusted for this.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, raheem moster likely to be back, I think next week,

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Speaker 2: but he was not a threat in the passing game

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Speaker 2: at all. I think Miami we talked about earlier, is

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Speaker 2: likely to be in a negative game script once again

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Speaker 2: against the Seattle team. They're five and a half six

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Speaker 2: point underdogs, and so I think they're going to be

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Speaker 2: forced to throw the ball again, get the ball quick

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Speaker 2: out of Scott of Thompson's hand into Devon eight chance

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Speaker 2: hands and let him run after the catch. So the

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Speaker 2: overs on his reception specifically is something I'm looking at,

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Speaker 2: depending on where the line is set.

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Speaker 1: All right, so one more to get to here. And

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Speaker 1: I saw a reel on this too, So this is

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Speaker 1: a very hot topic in the analytic community where passing

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Speaker 1: overall is down in the league this year, and it's

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Speaker 1: been kind of a trend going that direction. You're seeing

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Speaker 1: a lot more mobile quarterbacks, so offenses have sort of

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Speaker 1: evolved a little bit. You're also seeing a lot of

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Speaker 1: youth at the quarterback position. Right, more rookies have been

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Speaker 1: starting the last couple of years than ever before in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. So how has that taken into effect here overall?

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Speaker 1: When you're approaching some of these lines and you're looking

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Speaker 1: at quarterback totals, you're looking at points and all of that.

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Speaker 1: Because it is a strong trend. It is where the

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Speaker 1: NFL has again continued to evolve to has become a

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Speaker 1: passing league. But in the last couple of years, the

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Speaker 1: efficiency of that passing hasn't been quite as good because,

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Speaker 1: let's be honest, the quarterback play has been spotty and

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Speaker 1: different in terms of style of what you're getting from

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Speaker 1: these guys under center. So let's talk about that kind

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Speaker 1: of in the meta war sense and also in the

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Speaker 1: micro sense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean in the medicense you mentioned a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Pass rates across the league are down across the board.

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Speaker 2: I put out a chart each week that compares the

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Speaker 2: team's expected drop back rate to their actual drop back rates,

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Speaker 2: So that actually includes quarterback scrambles. So basically, was an

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Speaker 2: offense intending to throw the ball. There are only seven

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Speaker 2: teams currently that are throwing the ball more than would

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Speaker 2: be expected. That doesn't include the Chiefs either, which is

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Speaker 2: you would normally expect them to be in on that

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Speaker 2: side of things, efficiency, yardage, scoring, all of this is

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Speaker 2: down across the board. Now, again it's a two week

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Speaker 2: sample size that is a key part of this, and

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Speaker 2: I think we'll eventually see the league shift back towards

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Speaker 2: the average. We're not going to see things completely flip

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Speaker 2: on the other side and go towards only seven teams

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Speaker 2: being or throwing less than expected. But I do think

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Speaker 2: it's something you want to pay close attention to when

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Speaker 2: you're making player pop bets specifically, because again, those are

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Speaker 2: I think what's going to impact things the most as

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Speaker 2: it relates to yardage and things like that. But it's

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Speaker 2: one of those things where I want to be ahead

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Speaker 2: of that curve as much as I can, so trying

435
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 2: to figure out again what are the who are the

436
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 2: specific teams that again are trending towards getting to be

437
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 2: more pass happy and things like that, and understanding where

438
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 2: the direction of the things are going. So again, if

439
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 2: we realize four weeks from now that passing rates have

440
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 2: gotten back to league average, well there's nothing we can

441
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: do with that. But if you can be early on

442
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 2: some of those teams and on the league white trends,

443
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:11,399
Speaker 2: then I think that's very important to take a look at. All.

444
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 1: Right, let's look into the future for week three for

445
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 1: Survivor pool picks. Feel free to ignore me because obviously

446
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 1: I know nothing. Because the Ravens lost at home. The

447
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: Ravens lost their home opener to the Raiders. I'm probably

448
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: not going to get over this all year, but good

449
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 1: on the Raiders. They did a good job. They figured

450
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 1: out a way to win that football game. And also,

451
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,880
Speaker 1: I think between the first week of the Bengals eliminating

452
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 1: people and then the Ravens limiting people, I think it's

453
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 1: safe to say that you're in pole position right now.

454
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: I actually love the Bengals this week. I think this

455
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 1: is the week they get right. I think, as I

456
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 1: mentioned before, having the Washington Commanders come into town is

457
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 1: exactly what they need and hopefully some of this cough

458
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 1: medicine and stuff that I've been taking. I'm on Nike Will,

459
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 1: I'm on day Quill. I went three for three on

460
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: the Monday night football bets last night, So if you

461
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 1: saw that video, you might demand every week that I

462
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 1: am hyped up on Dayquill to make every pick because

463
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: that was a good run. So hopefully the trend continues.

464
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 1: But listen to Sam, everybody, he's got a better handle

465
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 1: on this, I think than I do. Where are you

466
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: going for your pick of the week for survivor pools

467
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 1: because it looks like you're targeting Thursday night football.

468
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, you said I got a better handle on this.

469
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 3: You forget that. I touted the Bengals and you gave

470
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 3: me a mulligan there.

471
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 1: I did, so maybe we bond. You had a mull again.

472
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: We're back in it. But look, Thursday night football in

473
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 1: an in division game that is typically a dangerous pool

474
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 1: to be swimming in.

475
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 2: It is, but it's also a rookie head coach in

476
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 2: Drod Mayo on the Patriots playing in his I guess

477
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: coaching in his first Thursday night football game, which is

478
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 2: typically bad news for those coaches. Since two thousand and

479
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 2: this is from Cleve Ta on Twitter. Since two thousand,

480
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 2: rookie head coaches are twenty two and thirty three against

481
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 2: the spread, which is forty percent and a thirty percent

482
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 2: win percentage against a pregame win percent expectation of thirty

483
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,120
Speaker 2: nine percent when that game occurs in the first half

484
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 2: of the season which we are in. Then these new

485
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,439
Speaker 2: coaches are still getting their feet wet, and their record

486
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 2: is five and eighteen against the spread, a seventeen percent

487
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:28,119
Speaker 2: win percentage compared to a forty two percent expected win percentage.

488
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 2: So this is really banking on the experience of the Jets. Again,

489
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 2: I think the Jets are still sort of figuring things

490
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 2: out on offense. Their defense is not nearly on the

491
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 2: level of what we expected of them going into the season.

492
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 2: But the Patriots are not going to like run away

493
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 2: with a victory here. This might be a little bit

494
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 2: more of a sweat than what you might hope for

495
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 2: on a Thursday night, but at least you get it

496
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 2: out of the way if it loses. But that said again,

497
00:25:59,920 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 2: is probably the healthiest that the Jets are going to

498
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 2: be right now. Like they have all their key guys.

499
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 2: Mike Williams seems like he's trending in the right.

500
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 3: Direction as well.

501
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 2: They figured out getting Brayley Allen involved in the passing

502
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 2: game as well, So again you got to think about

503
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:17,919
Speaker 2: two future weeks and all this sort of stuff. I

504
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 2: love the Bengals pick because, especially if a bunch of

505
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 2: people in your league picked the Bengals in Week one.

506
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 2: They're obviously not in the league anymore, but but you've

507
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 2: got a chance here here too as well. I just

508
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 2: think there's a wider range of outcomes for the Commanders

509
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 2: and what they've shown versus the New England Patriots.

510
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,120
Speaker 1: And I'm just I'm looking at the Bengals at home

511
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 1: back against the Wats and must win game, like this

512
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 1: is your season. And I don't think Joe Burrow's not

513
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 1: going to show up. And he showed up in Kansas

514
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 1: City ready to play, as Joe Burrow always does, and

515
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 1: I think things.

516
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 3: Will be all right there.

517
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 1: But chaos from the Jets and the Patriots I'm here for.

518
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 1: I'll looking forward to that. Make sure you tune in

519
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 1: later in the week two because Scott, Bob and are

520
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 1: going to break down that game all the props from it.

521
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 1: We were gonna have a lot to say about that too,

522
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 1: And as Sam mentioned, the Jets starting to use multiple

523
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: running backs, Mike Williams potentially starting to move a little

524
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 1: bit more into that passing attack too as he gets healthier,

525
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 1: So a lot of shifts going on there, Sam, This

526
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: was a tremendous deep dive into the numbers and I

527
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 1: think we've got a pretty good handle on things for

528
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 1: week three thanks to you, and of course, check out

529
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 1: more of Sam's work over at Bettingpros dot com. He's

530
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 1: got all the articles up there, all the data, all

531
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:27,640
Speaker 1: the stats that you could possibly handle. To make sure

532
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 1: you're getting the best bets, make sure you subscribe to

533
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros channel ring the Belt tole Goes dating.

534
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 1: Drop your comments below two. What numbers are you looking

535
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 1: at this week? And who is your survivor pool pick?

536
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 1: Please tell us because clearly we could use some help.

537
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the

538
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 1: game goes on for Sam Hoppin, I'm Joey p. We'll

539
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: see you next time. Kids, have a great week three.

540
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

541
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

542
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

543
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 4: Follow us on x and TikTok, at Betting Pros and

544
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 4: at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel

545
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 4: at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros