1 00:00:06,026 --> 00:00:09,506 Speaker 1: NFL Explained is a production of the NFL in partnership 2 00:00:09,706 --> 00:00:14,106 Speaker 1: with I Heart Radio. Welcome to NFL Explained, a production 3 00:00:14,266 --> 00:00:18,506 Speaker 1: of the NFL in partnership with I Heart Radio. America's 4 00:00:18,546 --> 00:00:21,506 Speaker 1: most reliable network is going ultra with Verizon five G 5 00:00:21,786 --> 00:00:24,226 Speaker 1: Ultra wide ban and more and more places with up 6 00:00:24,226 --> 00:00:26,946 Speaker 1: to ten times faster speeds. You can download a movie 7 00:00:26,986 --> 00:00:30,666 Speaker 1: in mere minutes. What Yes, Verizon is going ultra so 8 00:00:30,746 --> 00:00:33,026 Speaker 1: you can to five G Ultra wide ban available and 9 00:00:33,066 --> 00:00:35,426 Speaker 1: select areas most reliable based on rankings from the Root 10 00:00:35,506 --> 00:00:39,106 Speaker 1: Metrics US ROOT Score report dated first half, excluding c 11 00:00:39,266 --> 00:00:41,426 Speaker 1: ban and not specific to five G networks. Your results 12 00:00:41,426 --> 00:00:44,426 Speaker 1: may vary. Not an endorsement speed comparison to median Verizon 13 00:00:44,466 --> 00:00:47,546 Speaker 1: four G LTE speeds downloads vary based on network conditions 14 00:00:47,546 --> 00:00:51,466 Speaker 1: and five G content optimization. Up Work is the world's 15 00:00:51,506 --> 00:00:54,826 Speaker 1: work marketplace. Empower your business and hire the world's most 16 00:00:54,866 --> 00:00:59,466 Speaker 1: in demand developers, designers, project managers and more at www 17 00:00:59,586 --> 00:01:08,306 Speaker 1: dot up work dot com. So it's fourth down, they 18 00:01:08,346 --> 00:01:10,586 Speaker 1: take their final time out. You've got a minute and five. 19 00:01:11,106 --> 00:01:13,186 Speaker 1: Oh boy, well, you don't dare if you what do 20 00:01:13,226 --> 00:01:16,186 Speaker 1: you do if your Baltimore right now? Don't just count 21 00:01:16,226 --> 00:01:18,826 Speaker 1: the possibility that they go for this. No, you don't. 22 00:01:19,226 --> 00:01:21,466 Speaker 1: This's gonna be one hell of a call, though, and 23 00:01:21,546 --> 00:01:24,666 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson is going back on the field and they 24 00:01:24,706 --> 00:01:27,666 Speaker 1: are going for it, or at least the hard at 25 00:01:27,706 --> 00:01:29,986 Speaker 1: least line up. Chiefs had to make sure they don't 26 00:01:30,026 --> 00:01:33,866 Speaker 1: jump and Jackson will get the first down and then 27 00:01:33,906 --> 00:01:39,826 Speaker 1: affect on the game Mike. Week two of this season, 28 00:01:40,106 --> 00:01:43,346 Speaker 1: Chiefs at Ravens a late fourth down in the game 29 00:01:43,986 --> 00:01:46,986 Speaker 1: camera Scott John Harbaugh mouthing the words to Lamar Jackson, 30 00:01:47,066 --> 00:01:49,626 Speaker 1: do you want to go for this? It wasn't really 31 00:01:49,666 --> 00:01:52,426 Speaker 1: the hardest call to make, but it was a tremendous 32 00:01:52,586 --> 00:01:55,866 Speaker 1: moment just because you saw the synergy between the head 33 00:01:55,866 --> 00:01:58,346 Speaker 1: coach and the player and this idea that the head 34 00:01:58,346 --> 00:02:02,346 Speaker 1: coach is giving the player ownership of this moment. And 35 00:02:02,626 --> 00:02:05,346 Speaker 1: I'll tell you this, nobody was calling for a punt 36 00:02:05,426 --> 00:02:09,466 Speaker 1: right there, like nobody. So that is the topic of 37 00:02:09,546 --> 00:02:13,826 Speaker 1: today's NFL Explained episode. When should teams go for it 38 00:02:13,906 --> 00:02:16,586 Speaker 1: on fourth down? Why don't they go for it more? 39 00:02:16,826 --> 00:02:19,346 Speaker 1: And why don't they go for it when they should 40 00:02:19,386 --> 00:02:22,466 Speaker 1: go for it. I'm Adedy Kinkabala, joined as always by 41 00:02:22,506 --> 00:02:25,426 Speaker 1: my fabulous friend Mike Yam who would always go for 42 00:02:25,466 --> 00:02:28,426 Speaker 1: it on fourth down right, always always go time. The 43 00:02:28,426 --> 00:02:31,426 Speaker 1: biggest surprise would have been in that moment if Lamar 44 00:02:31,466 --> 00:02:34,186 Speaker 1: said no, just punted away like Holmes take it over, 45 00:02:34,426 --> 00:02:37,306 Speaker 1: that would have been the biggest surprise there. But you know, 46 00:02:37,466 --> 00:02:39,906 Speaker 1: kind of judging from the Hardball clip and some of 47 00:02:39,906 --> 00:02:42,346 Speaker 1: the postgame interviews and the things that we've read about 48 00:02:42,386 --> 00:02:44,626 Speaker 1: this game and heard about this game, at times, you 49 00:02:44,706 --> 00:02:46,506 Speaker 1: might actually say to yourself as a sports fan, like, 50 00:02:46,546 --> 00:02:48,866 Speaker 1: there's no real formula situations like this, like you shoot 51 00:02:48,866 --> 00:02:50,666 Speaker 1: from the hip, you go with your gut. But on 52 00:02:50,706 --> 00:02:55,426 Speaker 1: the contrary, there are so many different ways to analyze 53 00:02:55,506 --> 00:02:58,386 Speaker 1: all of this, and the analytics boom is a big 54 00:02:58,386 --> 00:03:00,706 Speaker 1: reason for that. You always see the guys that have 55 00:03:00,946 --> 00:03:02,946 Speaker 1: the sheets that looks sort of like play sheets, like 56 00:03:02,986 --> 00:03:05,266 Speaker 1: there is just math that is on there for a 57 00:03:05,306 --> 00:03:07,146 Speaker 1: lot of code just decide whether or not they want 58 00:03:07,146 --> 00:03:08,906 Speaker 1: to go forward or not. We're not going to overdo 59 00:03:08,906 --> 00:03:11,226 Speaker 1: it with the numbers and the formulas. But there is 60 00:03:11,266 --> 00:03:14,586 Speaker 1: a reason why d D Some teams now have multiple 61 00:03:14,666 --> 00:03:16,466 Speaker 1: not just one or two, but more than a few 62 00:03:16,626 --> 00:03:19,746 Speaker 1: analytics experts on their payroll. So in this episode, we're 63 00:03:19,746 --> 00:03:22,586 Speaker 1: gonna give a little bit historical context on the fourth 64 00:03:22,626 --> 00:03:25,906 Speaker 1: downs will analyze a couple of real life situations from 65 00:03:25,906 --> 00:03:27,826 Speaker 1: this season to see if the coach has actually made 66 00:03:27,866 --> 00:03:30,786 Speaker 1: the right call, and we'll dive into the psychology behind 67 00:03:30,826 --> 00:03:32,826 Speaker 1: all of this. D D. Because you've talked to some 68 00:03:32,866 --> 00:03:35,986 Speaker 1: analytics experts, there really is a psychology behind a lot 69 00:03:36,026 --> 00:03:38,906 Speaker 1: of these decisions. Oh a ton, because the math and 70 00:03:38,946 --> 00:03:42,786 Speaker 1: the statistical models and the historical trends can absolutely tell 71 00:03:42,866 --> 00:03:46,746 Speaker 1: you something, but there are so many variables, whether it's 72 00:03:46,786 --> 00:03:49,266 Speaker 1: the weather, whether it's your center is healthy or not, 73 00:03:49,666 --> 00:03:52,266 Speaker 1: how your team is doing, what the momentum is, if 74 00:03:52,306 --> 00:03:56,106 Speaker 1: your head coach is a gutsy guy or afraid of 75 00:03:56,106 --> 00:03:59,186 Speaker 1: what reporters might say to him after a game. But 76 00:03:59,466 --> 00:04:03,386 Speaker 1: let me tell you this, we've probably have been talking 77 00:04:03,426 --> 00:04:06,386 Speaker 1: about when to go for it, when not to go 78 00:04:06,506 --> 00:04:08,746 Speaker 1: for it, what is the math, what's not, what's your 79 00:04:08,786 --> 00:04:12,946 Speaker 1: gut feel, all of that for a dozen years now, 80 00:04:13,546 --> 00:04:15,906 Speaker 1: at least in my memory. I'm going back to two 81 00:04:15,946 --> 00:04:19,426 Speaker 1: thousand and nine. It was a Colts Patriots game. The 82 00:04:19,466 --> 00:04:21,786 Speaker 1: Colts were eight no. New England was six and two. 83 00:04:22,026 --> 00:04:24,026 Speaker 1: Tom Brady was coming off of that. I R season, 84 00:04:24,266 --> 00:04:27,866 Speaker 1: and there were two minutes left in the game. Bill 85 00:04:27,906 --> 00:04:31,866 Speaker 1: Belichick and the Patriots faced a fourth and two on 86 00:04:31,946 --> 00:04:36,026 Speaker 1: their own twenty eight, and Bill Belichick decided to go 87 00:04:36,186 --> 00:04:39,666 Speaker 1: for it. Now. The Patriots didn't convert, and the Colts 88 00:04:39,706 --> 00:04:42,066 Speaker 1: drove a very short field for a touchdown. They won 89 00:04:42,106 --> 00:04:47,466 Speaker 1: the game, and Belichick was absolutely crushed for it afterwards. 90 00:04:47,506 --> 00:04:50,506 Speaker 1: But what he probably did was look at his defense 91 00:04:50,546 --> 00:04:52,106 Speaker 1: and he figured, you know what, we're not going to 92 00:04:52,186 --> 00:04:54,466 Speaker 1: stop Manning anyway. We're not gonna stop him if he 93 00:04:54,506 --> 00:04:56,346 Speaker 1: starts on his own twenty. We're not going to stop 94 00:04:56,386 --> 00:05:00,066 Speaker 1: him if he's on our twenty. So here we go 95 00:05:00,626 --> 00:05:03,706 Speaker 1: because the Colts at that point where ain't no Brady 96 00:05:03,906 --> 00:05:07,066 Speaker 1: had been good a against the Colts, but he was 97 00:05:07,106 --> 00:05:08,946 Speaker 1: coming off of I R. And you know there were 98 00:05:09,066 --> 00:05:12,706 Speaker 1: rivals and at some point, Mike, what does Sperceians like 99 00:05:12,746 --> 00:05:15,706 Speaker 1: to say, no risk it, no biscuit? Is it feast 100 00:05:15,786 --> 00:05:17,746 Speaker 1: or famine? Like at some point you just have to, 101 00:05:18,106 --> 00:05:20,706 Speaker 1: you know, take a chance. And that's exactly what Bill 102 00:05:20,746 --> 00:05:24,746 Speaker 1: Belichick said that he thought it was his best chance 103 00:05:24,786 --> 00:05:26,786 Speaker 1: to win. His words, where I thought we needed to 104 00:05:26,866 --> 00:05:29,746 Speaker 1: make that one play and then we could run out 105 00:05:29,786 --> 00:05:33,106 Speaker 1: the clock. The trouble was is that the Patriots didn't 106 00:05:33,106 --> 00:05:37,706 Speaker 1: get those two yards, and so the traditional media crushed 107 00:05:37,746 --> 00:05:42,386 Speaker 1: Belichick for it. But the very next day, Mike Brian Burke, 108 00:05:42,466 --> 00:05:45,386 Speaker 1: who is a big analytics expert at the time, wrote 109 00:05:45,426 --> 00:05:49,666 Speaker 1: an article in the New York Times and he said, no, no, no, no, no. Actually, 110 00:05:49,746 --> 00:05:53,706 Speaker 1: all the statistical models, all the historical trends, all the 111 00:05:53,826 --> 00:05:59,146 Speaker 1: numbers say that Bill Belichick was actually right. And that's 112 00:05:59,146 --> 00:06:02,466 Speaker 1: where all the data guys and ps. The fans who 113 00:06:02,506 --> 00:06:06,866 Speaker 1: love seeing the offenses stay on the field rejoiced ya, 114 00:06:07,106 --> 00:06:10,466 Speaker 1: Nerd Nation, loving every single moment of that decision. But 115 00:06:10,506 --> 00:06:12,866 Speaker 1: there are a lot of variables that DD. You made 116 00:06:12,906 --> 00:06:14,866 Speaker 1: reference to it, where you are on the field, the weather, 117 00:06:14,906 --> 00:06:17,306 Speaker 1: the whole thing. When it comes down to making a 118 00:06:17,386 --> 00:06:19,626 Speaker 1: decision whether or not to go for it on fourth down, 119 00:06:19,866 --> 00:06:22,866 Speaker 1: game personnel, there there's a lot at stake and a 120 00:06:22,906 --> 00:06:25,146 Speaker 1: lot behind some of those decisions. In fact, the DD 121 00:06:25,266 --> 00:06:28,626 Speaker 1: the last four seasons have seen the highest percentages since 122 00:06:29,826 --> 00:06:33,626 Speaker 1: and furthermore, teams have actually gone for more in successive 123 00:06:33,666 --> 00:06:37,586 Speaker 1: seasons each year for the past nine years. So basically, 124 00:06:37,986 --> 00:06:40,986 Speaker 1: the numbers are telling a field story of what we're 125 00:06:40,986 --> 00:06:43,186 Speaker 1: all witnessing. I think most of us say, hey, people 126 00:06:43,186 --> 00:06:46,466 Speaker 1: are going forward, Teams are going for more on fourth down. Well, 127 00:06:46,506 --> 00:06:49,066 Speaker 1: the numbers are actually supporting it. And if we're talking 128 00:06:49,106 --> 00:06:51,746 Speaker 1: about strictly fourth and one at the time of this taping, 129 00:06:51,786 --> 00:06:55,746 Speaker 1: which is essentially basically the halfway point of season, teams 130 00:06:55,746 --> 00:06:59,586 Speaker 1: are going forward a d D seventy point one percent 131 00:06:59,786 --> 00:07:02,946 Speaker 1: of the time. And again it's increased every single year 132 00:07:03,226 --> 00:07:06,146 Speaker 1: since twelve, when teams went for it on fourth and 133 00:07:06,226 --> 00:07:09,266 Speaker 1: one only thirty five point three percent at a time. 134 00:07:09,306 --> 00:07:11,386 Speaker 1: I know I'm throwing a lot of numbers at everyone here, 135 00:07:11,386 --> 00:07:13,626 Speaker 1: but just think about this for one second. Teams are 136 00:07:13,706 --> 00:07:16,826 Speaker 1: going for it twice as much on fourth and one 137 00:07:16,986 --> 00:07:20,546 Speaker 1: as they did nine years ago. From a statistical standpoint, 138 00:07:20,626 --> 00:07:24,346 Speaker 1: that is just absolutely staggering. Now, the biggest question is 139 00:07:24,906 --> 00:07:28,466 Speaker 1: are those attempts actually successful. Well, the conversion rate on 140 00:07:28,586 --> 00:07:32,186 Speaker 1: fourth and one up to this point in season sixty 141 00:07:32,266 --> 00:07:34,866 Speaker 1: four point six percent at the time a d D. 142 00:07:35,546 --> 00:07:38,306 Speaker 1: Those numbers, that's the reason why teams are going for 143 00:07:38,386 --> 00:07:40,266 Speaker 1: it on fourth and one a whole lot more than 144 00:07:40,306 --> 00:07:42,626 Speaker 1: they have in the past. Looking at the data from 145 00:07:42,666 --> 00:07:45,906 Speaker 1: the start of if you move that yardage back, Mike 146 00:07:45,986 --> 00:07:49,586 Speaker 1: from one yard to three yards, that conversion rate does 147 00:07:49,706 --> 00:07:53,386 Speaker 1: drop twenty percentage points to forty five point one, So 148 00:07:53,746 --> 00:07:58,746 Speaker 1: perhaps it's a little bit dicey, but again, forty five 149 00:07:58,866 --> 00:08:02,706 Speaker 1: point one percent chance of success, it's not like you're 150 00:08:02,746 --> 00:08:05,586 Speaker 1: looking at a five percent chance of success. And it's 151 00:08:05,986 --> 00:08:08,666 Speaker 1: going back to those psychological factors. How are you doing, 152 00:08:08,746 --> 00:08:10,986 Speaker 1: what is your line look like, what is your play calling, 153 00:08:11,026 --> 00:08:14,666 Speaker 1: what do you have behind what you're doing. But let 154 00:08:14,666 --> 00:08:17,866 Speaker 1: me tell you this, from the start of the conversion 155 00:08:17,946 --> 00:08:22,546 Speaker 1: rate on fourth down from fourth and anywhere one to 156 00:08:22,626 --> 00:08:27,666 Speaker 1: three yards was sixty one seven For fourth and anywhere 157 00:08:27,666 --> 00:08:30,826 Speaker 1: from four to five yards was forty five point three percent. 158 00:08:31,146 --> 00:08:34,306 Speaker 1: So when you take those same distances on third down, 159 00:08:35,106 --> 00:08:37,786 Speaker 1: the percentages of sixty two and forty five are almost 160 00:08:37,826 --> 00:08:41,346 Speaker 1: exactly the same. So if you feel good on third down, 161 00:08:41,826 --> 00:08:46,586 Speaker 1: then you're not increasing or decreasing your opportunity on fourth 162 00:08:46,626 --> 00:08:50,066 Speaker 1: down right there. And again this comes back to the 163 00:08:50,146 --> 00:08:53,746 Speaker 1: idea of do you want to keep your offense on 164 00:08:53,826 --> 00:08:56,466 Speaker 1: the field. If you have let's say a dozen offensive 165 00:08:56,506 --> 00:09:00,866 Speaker 1: possessions a game, then you're kind of potentially gaining an 166 00:09:00,906 --> 00:09:04,266 Speaker 1: extra one if you're believing in your offense on fourth down. Yeah, 167 00:09:04,346 --> 00:09:06,506 Speaker 1: four down territory, no matter where you are on the field, 168 00:09:06,546 --> 00:09:08,546 Speaker 1: no matter what the clock says. It's kind of cool 169 00:09:08,626 --> 00:09:11,386 Speaker 1: from an offensive standpoint, but it's interesting because it does 170 00:09:11,866 --> 00:09:15,506 Speaker 1: I think beg this, this question and this vibe around 171 00:09:15,546 --> 00:09:18,826 Speaker 1: fourth down maybe adding more pressure to an offense. But 172 00:09:18,906 --> 00:09:21,306 Speaker 1: I don't know if that's necessarily the case. You know, 173 00:09:21,306 --> 00:09:23,626 Speaker 1: a d when when we've been doing this podcast, you 174 00:09:23,666 --> 00:09:26,186 Speaker 1: are quick to to throw out the question. So I 175 00:09:26,226 --> 00:09:29,786 Speaker 1: got one for you now. The most unstoppable play in 176 00:09:29,826 --> 00:09:34,746 Speaker 1: the history of the NFL is what. Oh? I know 177 00:09:34,826 --> 00:09:37,426 Speaker 1: this because I screamed for it constantly, especially when I'm 178 00:09:37,426 --> 00:09:41,226 Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh Steeler games. It is the quarterback sneak. To me, 179 00:09:41,466 --> 00:09:45,706 Speaker 1: the quarterback sneak is the most underused play in the NFL, 180 00:09:45,826 --> 00:09:50,666 Speaker 1: and Tom Brady is I believe Mike the most successful 181 00:09:50,706 --> 00:09:53,746 Speaker 1: at this. Do you know that he has converted more 182 00:09:53,786 --> 00:09:57,746 Speaker 1: than nine of his quarterback sneaks for first downs? It 183 00:09:57,906 --> 00:10:01,146 Speaker 1: is wild to me. Although you've brought up the Steelers 184 00:10:01,346 --> 00:10:04,386 Speaker 1: and quarterbacks like in your Big ben'size, like, I can 185 00:10:04,466 --> 00:10:08,026 Speaker 1: understand a dB why you want to see him all 186 00:10:08,026 --> 00:10:11,666 Speaker 1: the time, Because Mike Tomlin forever did not want his 187 00:10:11,786 --> 00:10:15,466 Speaker 1: quarterback doing a quarterback sneak, and Ben Roethlisberger is six 188 00:10:15,506 --> 00:10:19,426 Speaker 1: ft five, I mean, if you need a yard fall forward, 189 00:10:19,866 --> 00:10:23,426 Speaker 1: and for the majority of Ben Roethlisberger's career he played 190 00:10:23,466 --> 00:10:26,386 Speaker 1: behind an all Pro center in Marquis Pouncey, who could 191 00:10:26,386 --> 00:10:29,186 Speaker 1: push anybody out of the way. Can you tell how 192 00:10:29,186 --> 00:10:30,986 Speaker 1: passionate I get about this And this is me in 193 00:10:30,986 --> 00:10:33,266 Speaker 1: a press box where you have to be quiet and 194 00:10:33,306 --> 00:10:36,426 Speaker 1: not yell, oh my goodness, where is the quarterback sneak? 195 00:10:37,306 --> 00:10:40,946 Speaker 1: But it doesn't always work, because earlier this year there 196 00:10:40,986 --> 00:10:44,226 Speaker 1: was a very very key Bills game when Sean McDermott, 197 00:10:44,226 --> 00:10:47,066 Speaker 1: Bill's head coach, Sean McDermott did indeed go for the 198 00:10:47,066 --> 00:10:51,786 Speaker 1: fourth Town, which was absolutely the correct call. But Josh Allen, 199 00:10:51,826 --> 00:10:54,706 Speaker 1: who I also have a tremendous amount of appreciation for 200 00:10:54,746 --> 00:10:57,186 Speaker 1: as a quarterback and who also has a tremendous amount 201 00:10:57,226 --> 00:11:00,946 Speaker 1: of size to him, could not convert that fourth Town 202 00:11:01,026 --> 00:11:03,666 Speaker 1: quarterback sneak book, It's not a dent at a time 203 00:11:03,706 --> 00:11:05,586 Speaker 1: Brady has done it better than anyone else, and it's 204 00:11:05,746 --> 00:11:08,666 Speaker 1: I D point three. I don't think anyone will ever 205 00:11:08,946 --> 00:11:11,586 Speaker 1: look at the Tom Brady sneak again the same exact 206 00:11:11,626 --> 00:11:14,026 Speaker 1: way after listening to this podcast for what it's worth 207 00:11:14,026 --> 00:11:17,186 Speaker 1: add you asked me what unstoppable play. I would have said, 208 00:11:17,186 --> 00:11:18,906 Speaker 1: God's play. Let's run a little power here, and that 209 00:11:18,946 --> 00:11:22,106 Speaker 1: would have been effective. But the sneak from the number standpoint, 210 00:11:22,306 --> 00:11:25,346 Speaker 1: that's what it comes down to. But just fascinated by 211 00:11:25,346 --> 00:11:27,826 Speaker 1: the fact that he has had that much success holding 212 00:11:27,866 --> 00:11:30,506 Speaker 1: on to the football and leaning forward. But when we 213 00:11:30,546 --> 00:11:32,186 Speaker 1: come back in DED, we're gonna actually look at some 214 00:11:32,306 --> 00:11:35,826 Speaker 1: high profile situations from this season and see if the 215 00:11:35,866 --> 00:11:38,826 Speaker 1: coaches actually made the right call. Will also dive into 216 00:11:38,906 --> 00:11:42,266 Speaker 1: the psychology behind the decision making as well. She's a 217 00:11:42,346 --> 00:11:48,506 Speaker 1: d king Kabalan, I'm Mike. Yeah, it's NFL explained. 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Not an 243 00:13:00,186 --> 00:13:03,026 Speaker 1: endorsement speed comparison to Media and Verizon four G LTE 244 00:13:03,066 --> 00:13:05,626 Speaker 1: speeds downloads very based on network conditions and five G 245 00:13:05,946 --> 00:13:14,546 Speaker 1: content optimization. Back here on NFL explained She's a D 246 00:13:14,626 --> 00:13:16,906 Speaker 1: D kin Kabala, Mike yam with you and don't forget 247 00:13:16,986 --> 00:13:19,506 Speaker 1: we love to hear from you guys. You can use 248 00:13:19,546 --> 00:13:22,746 Speaker 1: the hashtag NFL Explain. You can find us on Twitter 249 00:13:22,826 --> 00:13:25,666 Speaker 1: at Mike Underscore, yam at a Kinka Walla a d D. 250 00:13:25,826 --> 00:13:28,426 Speaker 1: I keep getting some questions from some of our listeners. 251 00:13:28,426 --> 00:13:30,586 Speaker 1: I know we're going to do a mail bag edition 252 00:13:30,706 --> 00:13:32,866 Speaker 1: of this podcast, and I know you're getting some of 253 00:13:32,906 --> 00:13:35,866 Speaker 1: these questions as well. So happy to compile as many 254 00:13:35,906 --> 00:13:37,906 Speaker 1: as we can get. And we love hearing from a 255 00:13:37,946 --> 00:13:39,626 Speaker 1: lot of our listeners. It's been awesome to kind of 256 00:13:39,626 --> 00:13:41,906 Speaker 1: interact with a lot of you folks and continue to 257 00:13:41,946 --> 00:13:43,946 Speaker 1: spread the show. But we do want to get back 258 00:13:43,946 --> 00:13:46,866 Speaker 1: to fourth down and more specifically the fourth down that 259 00:13:46,906 --> 00:13:48,746 Speaker 1: we highlighted a d D at the top of the show. 260 00:13:48,786 --> 00:13:51,666 Speaker 1: With Lamar Jackson and the Ravens leading the Chiefs by 261 00:13:51,746 --> 00:13:53,946 Speaker 1: one point with just over a minute ago on their 262 00:13:53,986 --> 00:13:56,866 Speaker 1: own forty three yard line. John Harbor might have been 263 00:13:56,986 --> 00:13:59,906 Speaker 1: on the fence maybe about whether or not he should 264 00:14:00,266 --> 00:14:02,546 Speaker 1: go for it on him Yeah, I know with you, 265 00:14:02,826 --> 00:14:06,186 Speaker 1: but he did ask his quarterback for advice. And if 266 00:14:06,226 --> 00:14:08,346 Speaker 1: he had at the time or at least had the 267 00:14:08,386 --> 00:14:11,826 Speaker 1: time to consult next Gens stats, how convenue that would 268 00:14:11,826 --> 00:14:14,426 Speaker 1: have been, they would have come up with the decision 269 00:14:14,786 --> 00:14:17,466 Speaker 1: to go for it, and it would have been pretty 270 00:14:17,546 --> 00:14:21,026 Speaker 1: easy because going for it in that scenario yielded a 271 00:14:21,066 --> 00:14:25,266 Speaker 1: win probability of eighty two percent, while punting would have 272 00:14:25,346 --> 00:14:28,666 Speaker 1: made it a fifty eight percent win probability, so still 273 00:14:28,706 --> 00:14:31,106 Speaker 1: better than half odds. But I'll take at two fifty 274 00:14:31,146 --> 00:14:33,306 Speaker 1: eight any day of the week. So the answer right 275 00:14:33,306 --> 00:14:35,626 Speaker 1: now seems pretty clear. You go for it. Jackson ran 276 00:14:35,706 --> 00:14:38,186 Speaker 1: for the first down, Ravens got the win. But according 277 00:14:38,226 --> 00:14:40,346 Speaker 1: to the data, it really shouldn't have even been that 278 00:14:40,466 --> 00:14:42,746 Speaker 1: much of a question because the decision to go for 279 00:14:42,826 --> 00:14:45,906 Speaker 1: it increase that win probability a d D by twenty 280 00:14:46,066 --> 00:14:50,146 Speaker 1: four percent, and win probability for going for it accounted 281 00:14:50,186 --> 00:14:52,466 Speaker 1: for the fact that the distance to a first down 282 00:14:52,906 --> 00:14:56,706 Speaker 1: was one point one yards in that situation versus the 283 00:14:56,826 --> 00:15:00,506 Speaker 1: Chiefs defense. Now, the Ravens had a seventy five percent 284 00:15:00,626 --> 00:15:05,506 Speaker 1: chance of gaining enough yardage to confer dude, it's Lamar Jackson. Yeah, 285 00:15:05,866 --> 00:15:09,466 Speaker 1: point one yards. They definitely had enough to gain that 286 00:15:09,546 --> 00:15:12,066 Speaker 1: yard is just with his legs. But when probability for 287 00:15:12,106 --> 00:15:15,306 Speaker 1: a punt decision was so low because of the fact 288 00:15:15,306 --> 00:15:19,226 Speaker 1: to put the ball into Patrick Mahomes hands, yeah, he's 289 00:15:19,346 --> 00:15:21,546 Speaker 1: pretty good. We can just punt on this whole idea 290 00:15:21,546 --> 00:15:23,346 Speaker 1: of like interceptions and some of the issues they've had 291 00:15:23,346 --> 00:15:25,826 Speaker 1: this year. Generally speaking, mahomes is money and we all 292 00:15:25,866 --> 00:15:27,786 Speaker 1: know that. So you can go down a list of 293 00:15:27,786 --> 00:15:31,066 Speaker 1: the specific variables for any decision tom remaining on the clock. 294 00:15:31,146 --> 00:15:34,866 Speaker 1: You've got timeouts, fuel position, offense, and defensive personnel. You 295 00:15:34,906 --> 00:15:38,466 Speaker 1: have the efficiencies for both offense and defense. Add there's 296 00:15:38,546 --> 00:15:41,466 Speaker 1: a lot to wrap your head around, and the numbers 297 00:15:41,546 --> 00:15:43,946 Speaker 1: once again sort of give you the answer. Well, and 298 00:15:43,946 --> 00:15:46,186 Speaker 1: that's where the gray area comes in is when you 299 00:15:46,266 --> 00:15:49,986 Speaker 1: think about those variables because the statistical models and the 300 00:15:50,066 --> 00:15:53,986 Speaker 1: historical data don't necessarily account for every single one of 301 00:15:54,026 --> 00:15:57,146 Speaker 1: those things. But again, the point here is that it 302 00:15:57,266 --> 00:16:00,546 Speaker 1: is almost always smarter to go for it. Let's take 303 00:16:00,546 --> 00:16:03,306 Speaker 1: another instance from a high profile game this year. Tom 304 00:16:03,346 --> 00:16:07,466 Speaker 1: Brady's returned to Fox Borrow. It's his old team, the Patriots. 305 00:16:07,546 --> 00:16:11,226 Speaker 1: Now this one was a bit more difficult, but there 306 00:16:11,306 --> 00:16:14,946 Speaker 1: was indeed a clear optimal choice. With fifty nine seconds remaining, 307 00:16:14,946 --> 00:16:17,986 Speaker 1: the Patriots are down by two. They're on Tampa's thirty 308 00:16:18,026 --> 00:16:21,266 Speaker 1: eight yard line. It's fourth and four. Now, essentially New 309 00:16:21,266 --> 00:16:26,106 Speaker 1: England is facing a fifty six yard field goal, or 310 00:16:26,306 --> 00:16:28,426 Speaker 1: they're going forward on fourth and four to try to 311 00:16:28,466 --> 00:16:44,306 Speaker 1: get their kicker Nick Fole closer. The Patriots decided to 312 00:16:44,346 --> 00:16:48,426 Speaker 1: go for the field goal. Folk misses. But did Bill 313 00:16:48,506 --> 00:16:52,906 Speaker 1: Belichick make the right call there? According to Next Gen Stats, 314 00:16:53,506 --> 00:16:57,746 Speaker 1: the play Mike was go for it. Let of course, 315 00:16:58,106 --> 00:17:02,626 Speaker 1: exactly going for it would have yielded a nearly thirty 316 00:17:02,666 --> 00:17:06,786 Speaker 1: five percent chance of winning versus us to twenty four 317 00:17:06,986 --> 00:17:10,706 Speaker 1: percent chance by attempting that fifty six yard field goal, 318 00:17:10,826 --> 00:17:13,706 Speaker 1: So going for it gave you a ten percent better 319 00:17:13,906 --> 00:17:16,586 Speaker 1: chance of the outcome you wanted, which is a win. 320 00:17:16,746 --> 00:17:21,346 Speaker 1: So when probability took into account the forty percent chance 321 00:17:21,386 --> 00:17:23,626 Speaker 1: of Folk making that fifty six yard field goal in 322 00:17:23,626 --> 00:17:28,586 Speaker 1: this situation, the rainy conditions, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, in the moment, 323 00:17:28,746 --> 00:17:33,626 Speaker 1: so variables, variables, variables, variables, gut and the head coach 324 00:17:33,706 --> 00:17:36,706 Speaker 1: ultimately gets the call and fifty six that's not a 325 00:17:36,826 --> 00:17:40,306 Speaker 1: gimme either, So the variables once again, the weather for fault, 326 00:17:40,346 --> 00:17:42,466 Speaker 1: the amount of time that would leave Brady of Folk 327 00:17:42,506 --> 00:17:47,026 Speaker 1: actually made the kick. No model is perfect. I want 328 00:17:47,026 --> 00:17:49,026 Speaker 1: to reiterate that point because everyone says oh, you've got 329 00:17:49,106 --> 00:17:51,946 Speaker 1: all these numbers, and when you're wrong, it's easy to 330 00:17:51,946 --> 00:17:54,506 Speaker 1: focus in on some of that stuff. What the models 331 00:17:54,546 --> 00:17:58,946 Speaker 1: do is help you make better decisions, more informed decisions. 332 00:17:59,186 --> 00:18:02,706 Speaker 1: There is a psychological aspect for a coach who's deciding, 333 00:18:02,746 --> 00:18:04,186 Speaker 1: you know what, I'm going to roll the dice, we're 334 00:18:04,186 --> 00:18:06,306 Speaker 1: gonna go for it on this fourth down, or we're 335 00:18:06,306 --> 00:18:08,226 Speaker 1: going to kick the field goal, and I'm going to 336 00:18:08,306 --> 00:18:09,986 Speaker 1: be the one that takes some of the backlash. And 337 00:18:10,146 --> 00:18:12,626 Speaker 1: good example of this, Bankle's head coach Jack Taylor was 338 00:18:12,626 --> 00:18:15,306 Speaker 1: actually asked about fourth downs this year and he said 339 00:18:15,306 --> 00:18:17,666 Speaker 1: the following, there's gonna be times it doesn't go our 340 00:18:17,666 --> 00:18:19,746 Speaker 1: way and you're gonna have to deal with the blowback. 341 00:18:19,866 --> 00:18:23,226 Speaker 1: That's part of coaching. I'm comfortable with that. It's because 342 00:18:23,266 --> 00:18:25,546 Speaker 1: I know that the times you do do it successfully 343 00:18:25,546 --> 00:18:27,626 Speaker 1: and you go for it, those moms just get swept 344 00:18:27,826 --> 00:18:31,066 Speaker 1: under the rug. To me add and you've been around 345 00:18:31,106 --> 00:18:33,586 Speaker 1: a lot of these coaches as a pie, the psychological 346 00:18:33,626 --> 00:18:37,666 Speaker 1: effect of are my decisions going to be second guest 347 00:18:38,146 --> 00:18:40,666 Speaker 1: is a factor and that's why leaning on the numbers, 348 00:18:40,946 --> 00:18:43,746 Speaker 1: when it's just raw data, actually I think can help 349 00:18:43,786 --> 00:18:46,186 Speaker 1: a lot of coaches you know what. And it's not 350 00:18:46,306 --> 00:18:50,186 Speaker 1: just that, Mike, it's also what is the final result 351 00:18:50,306 --> 00:18:53,146 Speaker 1: and how do you frame that? So at the margin, 352 00:18:53,266 --> 00:18:56,346 Speaker 1: when you are more aggressive, you are more likely to win. 353 00:18:56,826 --> 00:19:00,146 Speaker 1: But the downside to being aggressive is that you may 354 00:19:00,266 --> 00:19:02,466 Speaker 1: have more blowout losses. And I actually talked to one 355 00:19:02,466 --> 00:19:05,626 Speaker 1: of my friends who is one of the premier analytic 356 00:19:05,826 --> 00:19:08,826 Speaker 1: experts in this entire field. He has worked in both 357 00:19:08,826 --> 00:19:11,466 Speaker 1: baseball and football, so he's got some great contacts which 358 00:19:11,506 --> 00:19:14,146 Speaker 1: I will share later. But if you go for it 359 00:19:14,506 --> 00:19:17,746 Speaker 1: and you are not successful, you are more likely to 360 00:19:17,866 --> 00:19:21,906 Speaker 1: lose badly than just lose. And how do you handle that? 361 00:19:22,026 --> 00:19:24,106 Speaker 1: And let's use the Chargers. You're talking about Zach Taylor. 362 00:19:24,186 --> 00:19:27,866 Speaker 1: He is one of the young coaches in the NFL. 363 00:19:27,906 --> 00:19:30,826 Speaker 1: Another young coach in the NFL who's been very aggressive 364 00:19:30,986 --> 00:19:33,186 Speaker 1: is Brandon Staley out with the Chargers. If we go 365 00:19:33,226 --> 00:19:35,906 Speaker 1: back to earlier this year, Chargers don't beat the Browns 366 00:19:36,026 --> 00:19:38,346 Speaker 1: if they're not aggressive and they're not going for it 367 00:19:38,386 --> 00:19:42,066 Speaker 1: on fourth down, so that's a win. But then the 368 00:19:42,146 --> 00:19:44,626 Speaker 1: Chargers play the Ravens, they do go for it on 369 00:19:44,706 --> 00:19:47,626 Speaker 1: fourth down, they don't convert a couple of times, and 370 00:19:48,786 --> 00:19:52,426 Speaker 1: it's probably a closer game against the Ravens as opposed 371 00:19:52,466 --> 00:19:55,106 Speaker 1: to this whopping blowout had they not gone for it 372 00:19:55,146 --> 00:19:57,986 Speaker 1: on fourth down again, feast or famine, no risk it, 373 00:19:58,066 --> 00:20:01,746 Speaker 1: no biscuit. And so are you okay with the idea 374 00:20:01,946 --> 00:20:04,826 Speaker 1: of what looks like an ugly loss? If you believe 375 00:20:04,826 --> 00:20:07,066 Speaker 1: in your team that much, they you're maybe not facing 376 00:20:07,066 --> 00:20:09,146 Speaker 1: that ugly loss. And I don't know if that makes sense, 377 00:20:09,146 --> 00:20:10,986 Speaker 1: but think about it this way, Mike. It's like the 378 00:20:11,066 --> 00:20:13,346 Speaker 1: quarterback at the end of a half who's willing to 379 00:20:13,386 --> 00:20:17,146 Speaker 1: throw a hail Mary. Maybe it's all right. So some 380 00:20:17,266 --> 00:20:18,906 Speaker 1: quarterbacks are like, well, I don't care. I'm going to 381 00:20:18,946 --> 00:20:20,826 Speaker 1: give it a shot. And there are other quarterbacks that 382 00:20:20,826 --> 00:20:22,986 Speaker 1: are like, yeah, but there's a really good shot that 383 00:20:23,026 --> 00:20:24,786 Speaker 1: this ball gets picked off and I don't want that 384 00:20:24,826 --> 00:20:28,146 Speaker 1: on my stat line. So do you worry about the 385 00:20:28,226 --> 00:20:30,266 Speaker 1: ugliness of a blowout loss or do you say I 386 00:20:30,306 --> 00:20:32,506 Speaker 1: don't care. All we care about right now are ws 387 00:20:32,506 --> 00:20:34,026 Speaker 1: and we need to do everything we can to get 388 00:20:34,026 --> 00:20:37,626 Speaker 1: a w Risk adverse is what some of those quarterbacks 389 00:20:37,746 --> 00:20:40,266 Speaker 1: maybe are in some of those situations. What the numbers 390 00:20:40,306 --> 00:20:43,746 Speaker 1: don't indicate as well. Adity is what it means, and 391 00:20:43,786 --> 00:20:46,626 Speaker 1: the magnitude. How do you measure the confidence that your 392 00:20:46,626 --> 00:20:48,906 Speaker 1: coach has when your team goes for it on fourth 393 00:20:48,906 --> 00:20:50,986 Speaker 1: down and is able to convert and then you win 394 00:20:51,066 --> 00:20:54,226 Speaker 1: that football game. How does that momentum change a locker room? 395 00:20:54,426 --> 00:20:57,906 Speaker 1: That's something that next gen stats can't cook up formula four. 396 00:20:57,946 --> 00:21:00,506 Speaker 1: Although I'm sure there's a data scientist right now who says, no, no, no, 397 00:21:00,546 --> 00:21:03,346 Speaker 1: I got you on that one. I'll figure that one out. No, 398 00:21:03,466 --> 00:21:05,906 Speaker 1: But that's actually a very very fair point. This is 399 00:21:05,946 --> 00:21:09,706 Speaker 1: that idea of success begets success. A few years ago, 400 00:21:09,826 --> 00:21:13,066 Speaker 1: when the NFL moved the p A T line back, 401 00:21:13,426 --> 00:21:15,466 Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin all of a sudden kept going for the 402 00:21:15,466 --> 00:21:17,626 Speaker 1: two point conversion as opposed to kicking the p A T. 403 00:21:18,306 --> 00:21:20,466 Speaker 1: And I remember, I have a very good friend, he's 404 00:21:20,466 --> 00:21:22,546 Speaker 1: still my friend, Ken Carmen, who is a radio host 405 00:21:22,546 --> 00:21:25,386 Speaker 1: in Cleveland, and at one point during one game he 406 00:21:25,506 --> 00:21:27,706 Speaker 1: messaged me and he said, why does Tomlin keep going 407 00:21:27,786 --> 00:21:31,106 Speaker 1: for it? And my response was because he can. And 408 00:21:31,426 --> 00:21:34,026 Speaker 1: the issue was, you know, like, let's say when you 409 00:21:34,066 --> 00:21:37,386 Speaker 1: move the p T back, maybe the success rate drops 410 00:21:37,426 --> 00:21:42,866 Speaker 1: from to and maybe your two point conversion success rate 411 00:21:42,986 --> 00:21:45,586 Speaker 1: is fift. The big point in all of this as 412 00:21:45,586 --> 00:21:47,986 Speaker 1: opposed to doing some fancy math formula. Is that the 413 00:21:47,986 --> 00:21:50,746 Speaker 1: Steelers were actually really good at it, and so because 414 00:21:50,786 --> 00:21:54,546 Speaker 1: they were successful early on at converting those two point plays, 415 00:21:54,906 --> 00:21:57,826 Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin just stuck with it. You go back to 416 00:21:57,866 --> 00:22:00,906 Speaker 1: a year ago, the Steelers almost never went for it 417 00:22:00,946 --> 00:22:04,626 Speaker 1: on fourth and one, even though the models, the mathematical models, 418 00:22:04,626 --> 00:22:08,266 Speaker 1: that statistical model kept saying go for it, because they 419 00:22:08,266 --> 00:22:11,106 Speaker 1: couldn't convert. The Dealers were terrible on third and one, 420 00:22:11,106 --> 00:22:12,746 Speaker 1: and they were terrible on fourth and one. So who 421 00:22:12,826 --> 00:22:15,786 Speaker 1: cares what the math says at that point? And that's 422 00:22:15,946 --> 00:22:20,586 Speaker 1: once again that human judgment that's hard for just artificial 423 00:22:20,626 --> 00:22:27,666 Speaker 1: intelligence to come up with a solution for. This podcast 424 00:22:27,746 --> 00:22:32,706 Speaker 1: is sponsored by Kindrel. 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And I will tell you this 438 00:23:28,706 --> 00:23:31,786 Speaker 1: to Mike that every single analyst that I have spoken to, 439 00:23:32,226 --> 00:23:35,466 Speaker 1: you know, analysts are more aggressive than head coaches are. 440 00:23:35,826 --> 00:23:37,586 Speaker 1: And that's because they look at the math, they look 441 00:23:37,586 --> 00:23:40,626 Speaker 1: at the data, they look at historical trends, what's generally 442 00:23:40,666 --> 00:23:45,186 Speaker 1: happened head coaches. Some of it, I think is a 443 00:23:45,266 --> 00:23:49,346 Speaker 1: lack of understanding of the math and the percentages, and hey, 444 00:23:49,426 --> 00:23:51,506 Speaker 1: is somebody who's not great at math. The percentages can 445 00:23:51,586 --> 00:23:53,306 Speaker 1: sometimes make my eyes roll in the back of my 446 00:23:53,346 --> 00:23:56,026 Speaker 1: head as well. I think a lot of it also 447 00:23:56,266 --> 00:23:58,306 Speaker 1: is wanting to do things the way that things have 448 00:23:58,386 --> 00:24:01,986 Speaker 1: always been done and so what's familiar to you, especially 449 00:24:01,986 --> 00:24:03,866 Speaker 1: if you've been a coach for a long time in 450 00:24:03,866 --> 00:24:06,466 Speaker 1: the NFL, that might be part of it. And I 451 00:24:06,506 --> 00:24:10,426 Speaker 1: think that the impact of what you see around you, 452 00:24:10,426 --> 00:24:12,426 Speaker 1: you know, like you were talking earlier Mike about how 453 00:24:12,466 --> 00:24:15,986 Speaker 1: we've seen the numbers increase every year team is being 454 00:24:16,026 --> 00:24:20,226 Speaker 1: more aggressive. I go back to that Philadelphia Eagles super 455 00:24:20,226 --> 00:24:25,266 Speaker 1: Bowl win. Philly really was very effective in being aggressive 456 00:24:25,306 --> 00:24:27,906 Speaker 1: and going forward on fourth down, and at least for 457 00:24:27,986 --> 00:24:32,746 Speaker 1: me anecdotally speaking, I think that that sort of represents 458 00:24:33,226 --> 00:24:35,346 Speaker 1: kind of a change in play. Look, I think you 459 00:24:35,386 --> 00:24:38,986 Speaker 1: can even go back to Billy being with you know, 460 00:24:39,066 --> 00:24:41,746 Speaker 1: moneyball in the Oakland, a sort of sending the table 461 00:24:41,866 --> 00:24:45,026 Speaker 1: for organizations to embrace it, because I think the observation 462 00:24:45,026 --> 00:24:47,026 Speaker 1: that you just came up with, which is we've always 463 00:24:47,066 --> 00:24:49,706 Speaker 1: done it this way, is the easy thing to fall 464 00:24:49,746 --> 00:24:52,586 Speaker 1: back on. And I think once one or two coaches, 465 00:24:52,626 --> 00:24:55,986 Speaker 1: slash teams organizations have success doing it a different way, 466 00:24:56,186 --> 00:24:59,226 Speaker 1: then everyone wants to get onto that train and roll 467 00:24:59,266 --> 00:25:01,306 Speaker 1: with it. And I think from an analytic standpoint, people 468 00:25:01,386 --> 00:25:03,346 Speaker 1: now are following suit. Yeah, but you know, I do 469 00:25:03,386 --> 00:25:05,706 Speaker 1: want to bring up a point that my friend said, 470 00:25:05,786 --> 00:25:08,066 Speaker 1: my buddy said to me, since you're mentioning Billy Bean, 471 00:25:08,426 --> 00:25:11,226 Speaker 1: that I think is really tremendous as related to the NFL. 472 00:25:12,146 --> 00:25:14,906 Speaker 1: You know, the influence of analytics on baseball, Like, let's 473 00:25:14,906 --> 00:25:19,746 Speaker 1: say the shift in general has maybe esthetically made baseball 474 00:25:19,946 --> 00:25:22,706 Speaker 1: a tad less pleasing. You know, they're more hits, they're 475 00:25:22,706 --> 00:25:26,786 Speaker 1: more walks, there's more home runs, but again because the shift, 476 00:25:26,826 --> 00:25:30,546 Speaker 1: there's not as many hits. But look at football, the 477 00:25:30,586 --> 00:25:34,906 Speaker 1: influence of analytics, the idea of going for it has 478 00:25:35,026 --> 00:25:38,746 Speaker 1: actually made the football games better. You've got crowd cheering 479 00:25:38,786 --> 00:25:41,266 Speaker 1: for it, you have fans yelling go for it. You 480 00:25:41,346 --> 00:25:44,786 Speaker 1: have this excitement of sort of taking on a risk, 481 00:25:44,986 --> 00:25:49,186 Speaker 1: being aggressive the offense, staying on the field. All of 482 00:25:49,226 --> 00:25:53,346 Speaker 1: that I think has actually you know, these are sort 483 00:25:53,386 --> 00:25:55,946 Speaker 1: of high leverage plays. They make the game more fun 484 00:25:55,986 --> 00:25:59,266 Speaker 1: and more interesting. So for football, it's really worked. It's 485 00:25:59,266 --> 00:26:01,386 Speaker 1: a great call, especially when you think about watching game 486 00:26:01,426 --> 00:26:05,146 Speaker 1: shows on television and the contestants already got you know, 487 00:26:05,306 --> 00:26:08,426 Speaker 1: a decent amount of winnings. Exactly, we're all saying no, like, 488 00:26:08,546 --> 00:26:10,466 Speaker 1: let it ride, let it ride. Let's try to, you know, 489 00:26:10,506 --> 00:26:12,266 Speaker 1: try to. You know, there's a fun aspect to and 490 00:26:12,306 --> 00:26:14,746 Speaker 1: I think in these fourth down situations there's something to 491 00:26:14,746 --> 00:26:16,706 Speaker 1: be said for uh A D D. One other thing 492 00:26:16,786 --> 00:26:18,146 Speaker 1: I want to bring up to you, and I know 493 00:26:18,226 --> 00:26:21,586 Speaker 1: there's no way to possibly answer this question. But as 494 00:26:21,666 --> 00:26:23,826 Speaker 1: I'm listening to some of the things that you're saying 495 00:26:24,066 --> 00:26:26,706 Speaker 1: from your your conversations with people around the league and 496 00:26:27,066 --> 00:26:29,946 Speaker 1: data people, it also makes me wonder, from a human 497 00:26:29,986 --> 00:26:33,746 Speaker 1: element standpoint, if we're playing backyard football and there was 498 00:26:33,826 --> 00:26:36,626 Speaker 1: no media, press conferences when the game was done, There 499 00:26:36,626 --> 00:26:39,026 Speaker 1: weren't millions of dollars on the line. There weren't you know, 500 00:26:39,106 --> 00:26:41,826 Speaker 1: tens of thousands of fans you know, in the stadium, 501 00:26:42,106 --> 00:26:45,026 Speaker 1: millions more just watching all of these games. If that 502 00:26:45,066 --> 00:26:48,546 Speaker 1: would change the decision making process and you weren't just 503 00:26:48,626 --> 00:26:50,906 Speaker 1: if you were a coach of a backyard football team. 504 00:26:50,946 --> 00:26:52,866 Speaker 1: I get we didn't have coaches playing in the backyard, 505 00:26:52,866 --> 00:26:56,986 Speaker 1: but roll with me here, do you change your philosophy 506 00:26:57,026 --> 00:26:59,826 Speaker 1: and some of those moments, because it does bring you 507 00:26:59,866 --> 00:27:02,066 Speaker 1: back to just being a kid and just trying to 508 00:27:02,066 --> 00:27:04,066 Speaker 1: figure out the best way to win without any of 509 00:27:04,106 --> 00:27:07,226 Speaker 1: the other variables that come with being on the sidelines 510 00:27:07,586 --> 00:27:10,386 Speaker 1: inside an NFL stadium. Do you have an offensive line 511 00:27:10,506 --> 00:27:14,866 Speaker 1: in your backyard? Because honestly, I think that that's the 512 00:27:14,866 --> 00:27:17,706 Speaker 1: biggest predictor of success right there. Do you believe in 513 00:27:17,746 --> 00:27:20,586 Speaker 1: your line? But again, I'm an old school football person, 514 00:27:20,586 --> 00:27:23,266 Speaker 1: who believes that everything starts up front. Can your line 515 00:27:23,306 --> 00:27:28,466 Speaker 1: get and yeah enough to go for it? I think 516 00:27:28,546 --> 00:27:33,226 Speaker 1: that NFL coaches largely. I mean, gosh, I'm running through 517 00:27:33,266 --> 00:27:35,546 Speaker 1: thirty two names right now, and who I personally know 518 00:27:35,626 --> 00:27:39,546 Speaker 1: and who not. I don't think that media scrutiny or 519 00:27:39,666 --> 00:27:44,546 Speaker 1: fans scrutiny is really the driver right there. I think 520 00:27:44,586 --> 00:27:46,386 Speaker 1: it has a lot more to do. You know, like 521 00:27:46,466 --> 00:27:48,906 Speaker 1: how do you play poker? And it's how much faith 522 00:27:48,946 --> 00:27:50,946 Speaker 1: do you have in your team? And are you moving 523 00:27:50,946 --> 00:27:53,346 Speaker 1: the ball right now or not? And I brought this 524 00:27:53,426 --> 00:27:57,666 Speaker 1: up earlier because again, I was at this insane Steelers 525 00:27:57,786 --> 00:28:02,106 Speaker 1: Lions tip over time tie game in the freezing rain, 526 00:28:02,866 --> 00:28:05,586 Speaker 1: and there were two situations where I thought the Lions 527 00:28:05,746 --> 00:28:10,426 Speaker 1: absolutely shouldn't go for it, and they didn't. But I mean, 528 00:28:10,586 --> 00:28:13,306 Speaker 1: neither quarterback was really moving the ball. They were very 529 00:28:13,346 --> 00:28:16,746 Speaker 1: bad conditions. I mean, anybody could sit here and say, Okay, 530 00:28:16,786 --> 00:28:20,666 Speaker 1: everything shades towards punting as opposed to going for it. 531 00:28:20,906 --> 00:28:22,346 Speaker 1: I just think a lot of it has to do 532 00:28:22,386 --> 00:28:25,866 Speaker 1: with what your nature is, and you know, what are 533 00:28:25,906 --> 00:28:27,946 Speaker 1: you willing to risk? How much do you believe in 534 00:28:27,986 --> 00:28:31,066 Speaker 1: your team? What are you seeing so far? And like 535 00:28:31,146 --> 00:28:33,546 Speaker 1: you said, you know, what do your players want to 536 00:28:33,586 --> 00:28:36,586 Speaker 1: do if you believe in giving your players ownership over 537 00:28:36,626 --> 00:28:38,786 Speaker 1: those decisions? Add I'm with you. I know it's the 538 00:28:38,826 --> 00:28:41,066 Speaker 1: point that we brought up earlier. But what those fourth 539 00:28:41,066 --> 00:28:43,946 Speaker 1: down those successful fourth down conversions? What does that due 540 00:28:43,946 --> 00:28:46,066 Speaker 1: to your sideline? What does it due to your locker room? 541 00:28:46,146 --> 00:28:49,186 Speaker 1: Hard for the metrics to really gauge some of that stuff. 542 00:28:49,226 --> 00:28:52,386 Speaker 1: But you mentioned Brandon Staley, Um, he's on this list 543 00:28:52,666 --> 00:28:55,546 Speaker 1: the top five guys in the NFL optimal fourth down 544 00:28:55,626 --> 00:28:58,586 Speaker 1: decision percentages. Uh, and the guys who have done at 545 00:28:58,626 --> 00:29:02,946 Speaker 1: the best Kevin Stevansky number one, twelve out of thirteen. 546 00:29:03,026 --> 00:29:06,426 Speaker 1: I will take that, Brandon Staley number two out of fourteen, 547 00:29:06,466 --> 00:29:09,026 Speaker 1: good for seventy one percent. Mc fangio with the Broncos 548 00:29:09,066 --> 00:29:12,786 Speaker 1: number three, five out of seven, Cliff Kingsbury four out 549 00:29:12,786 --> 00:29:15,466 Speaker 1: of six, and Mike McCarthy rounding at the top five 550 00:29:15,546 --> 00:29:20,026 Speaker 1: eleven for eighteen in those situations. But which coach do 551 00:29:20,066 --> 00:29:23,266 Speaker 1: you wish went for maybe on fourth down as your coach? 552 00:29:23,306 --> 00:29:26,546 Speaker 1: We'd love to hear from you. Use that hashtag NFL 553 00:29:26,826 --> 00:29:30,226 Speaker 1: explained a d D. It was awesome doing this. I 554 00:29:30,226 --> 00:29:32,186 Speaker 1: actually love this show because I can, you know, dork 555 00:29:32,266 --> 00:29:34,186 Speaker 1: out on the numbers a little bit, but I think 556 00:29:34,186 --> 00:29:35,866 Speaker 1: the point that you brought up a few minutes ago 557 00:29:35,946 --> 00:29:39,226 Speaker 1: is the best one of the entire show. Going forward 558 00:29:39,266 --> 00:29:41,866 Speaker 1: and fourth down helps the excitement and I think helps 559 00:29:41,946 --> 00:29:45,786 Speaker 1: the game of football. I cannot agree more. It is 560 00:29:45,826 --> 00:29:49,226 Speaker 1: always fun, Mike. I can't wait for next week. Like 561 00:29:49,306 --> 00:29:52,146 Speaker 1: you said, we would love, love, love to hear from 562 00:29:52,146 --> 00:29:55,906 Speaker 1: all of you, so send us your burning questions. And 563 00:29:56,226 --> 00:29:59,106 Speaker 1: for now, my friend Mike and all of our listeners, 564 00:29:59,426 --> 00:30:05,866 Speaker 1: that is going for it on fourth down, explained, m 565 00:30:13,746 --> 00:30:17,186 Speaker 1: America's most reliable network is going ultra with Verizon five 566 00:30:17,266 --> 00:30:19,786 Speaker 1: G Ultra wide ban and more and more places with 567 00:30:19,906 --> 00:30:22,426 Speaker 1: up to ten times faster speeds. 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