1 00:00:01,440 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: From our President Joe Biden's one point nine trillion dollar 2 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: pandemic relief package. We're not going to hear any more 3 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:11,640 Speaker 1: about Operation Warp Speed. They're gonna be calling it the 4 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:16,240 Speaker 1: COVID response. We're talking right now about jockeying amongst Republicans. 5 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On the insiders, the influencers, the inside biding 6 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:24,599 Speaker 1: has Thomas again and again it he wiles unite the country. 7 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,800 Speaker 1: Who do you think Biden has to watch in terms 8 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: of moderate defectors. The House has been voting for this 9 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: stimulus package basically for months. This is Bloomberg Sound On 10 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: with Kevin Shirley on Bloomberg Radio. Stocks climb on stimulus bets. 11 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:45,239 Speaker 1: After a week's job Stata report, we check in with 12 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:49,919 Speaker 1: Jared Bernstein. Plus. Meanwhile, back on Capitol Hill, now just 13 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: one weekend away from President former President Trump's second impeachment style, 14 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: We've got every angle covered, and I'm told by our producer, 15 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: executive producer Christine Barrata, that Jared has joined us on 16 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 1: the line, So let's get right to it. I'm Kevin CURRELLI, 17 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 1: Chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television and for Bloomberg Radio, 18 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 1: joined by Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House 19 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: Council of Economic Advisors and former Chief Economists and economic 20 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 1: advisor to President Biden, as well as he has previously 21 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 1: also served in the Obama administration. Uh, Jared, thanks so 22 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 1: much for joining us. I was looking at the jobs 23 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: market numbers, and I'll read from the Bloomberg terminal. The 24 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 1: recovery in the US labor market disappointed for a second month, 25 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 1: as modest job growth highlighted the persistently difficult prospects for 26 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: millions of unemployed Americans. Non Farm payrolls increased by just 27 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: forty nine thousand after a downward ly revised two hundred 28 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: and twenty seven thousand December drop. This is strengthened the 29 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: case for another relief package. President Biden gave the strongest 30 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: indication yet that he will push for more stimulus without 31 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: Republican support, saying that the job's weak economic data shows 32 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: the risk of doing uh, the risk of doing too little. 33 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,920 Speaker 1: Just when you talk with President Biden, when you talk 34 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 1: with your team, now, just a couple of weeks into 35 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: the administration, what do you glean from today's job's data report? 36 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: Much like what you were just reporting, the job market 37 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 1: looks like it's in a stall in terms of job creation. Um, 38 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: you correctly, we're pointed out some of the BIPs and 39 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: bops in these voltable monthly data. Just average them out 40 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: over the past three months, and you get twenty nine 41 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 1: thousand jobs a month. That's not nearly enough to get 42 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: America back to work. It is clear to us, clear 43 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: to the President that the dual interacting crises of a 44 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 1: health crisis that's an engendered an economic one UH is 45 00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:02,079 Speaker 1: alive and well and continues to plague too many American communities, 46 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 1: too many workers, too many businesses. So the American rescue 47 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 1: plan is scaled and calibrated to the magnitude of the problem. 48 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 1: I would say that the key mantra for us is 49 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: something you just referenced. The danger is doing too little, 50 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,359 Speaker 1: not too much. So we need to finally give this 51 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 1: virus to knockout blow and launch a robust, inclusive, and 52 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:26,519 Speaker 1: racially equitable recovery. So you know, earlier today on Capitol Hill, 53 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: of course, Vice President Kamala Harris and the early morning 54 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 1: hours about twelve hours ago now casting a tie deciding 55 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: bread vote in the Senate in order to set up 56 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 1: the road NAP and the procedure for the one point 57 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 1: nine trillion dollar plan. Are you disappointed that this is 58 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: going to be a partisan now issue and it doesn't 59 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: look likely that any Republicans are going to get on board. Well, 60 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: it's not obvious to me that that's the endgame here. 61 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 1: I mean, the President has been engaging with republic Alikans. 62 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 1: Our team has been engaging with both sides, trying to 63 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 1: understand ways in which we can improve on the plan. 64 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 1: He's not willing to to chip away at the plan 65 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 1: that's calibrated of a magnitude to finally wrestle this crisis 66 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: to the ground, but he's certainly willing to listen to 67 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: other ideas. And he saw some of this exchange around 68 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: the direct impact payments are the checks UH, particularly around 69 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: increasing the phase outright, which is UH an issue under discussion. 70 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 1: Let me listeners may not know this. In twenty one, 71 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, in sixteen out of twenty one reconciliation bills, 72 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 1: I was recently told Republicans and Democrats joined together on 73 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 1: those bills. Reconciliation does not necessarily mean only one side. Um. 74 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: I remember the Child Health Insurance bill, which was an 75 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 1: important one. It was done through reconciliation. That was mostly Democrats, 76 00:04:56,600 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 1: but there were Republicans on that and there are they 77 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: called the modern Republicans who have expressed considerable interest and 78 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 1: urgency in meeting this moment with at least components of 79 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,279 Speaker 1: the kind of plan we're talking about. You know, I 80 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,279 Speaker 1: feel like we have to dust off the schoolhouse rock 81 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 1: the soundtrack in order to remind our our listeners about 82 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 1: the importance of that reconciliation process. When I when I 83 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 1: based on my reporting this week, it would appear and 84 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: from some of the comments publicly from some of your colleagues, 85 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: Jared Bernstein, that Senator Mitt Romney has really been showcasing 86 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: that he might be on board or at least wanting 87 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 1: to be showing a willingness to be a part of 88 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 1: that process in terms of some of the proposals that 89 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 1: he's put forth. As he a senator that you've identified, 90 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: perhaps as someone who has shown a willingness to work 91 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 1: with this administration on the stimulus plan. I mean, that's 92 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 1: the important thing about what Romney recently recently put forth. UH. 93 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: This is a program to provide resources to low income 94 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 1: parents with children. Is it very closely mirrors uh, something 95 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: at President Biden insisted be part be a part of 96 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 1: the American Rescue Plan. This is the child tax credit 97 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 1: which existed, but it all it was constructed in such 98 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: a way the tens of millions of low income children 99 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 1: were excluded from its full benefit the way it's constructed 100 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: in the American Rescue Plan. UM. And and again this 101 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: this looks a lot like what said and Romney was 102 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:28,160 Speaker 1: talking about. Uh is is accomplishes full refundability and make 103 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 1: sure that parents with low income kids gettys and parents 104 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:37,799 Speaker 1: with I'm sorry, parents with young kids under six gettys, 105 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 1: and parents with kids who are poor get get about 106 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 1: three thousand and if you do the arithmetic, this plan 107 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:50,480 Speaker 1: cuts child poverty in half. Think about the lasting h 108 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 1: impacts of doing that. UM because we know that growing 109 00:06:56,000 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: up poor has tremendous negative impacts in your lifetime perspective. 110 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 1: So we we think this is this is a really 111 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: important piece of the plan. Were very happy to see 112 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: other folks from different sides of the aisle interested in 113 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: this idea as well. Jared Burnstein's with us. He has 114 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: a member of President Biden's White House Council of Economic Advisors. Yesterday, 115 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: uh I interviewed Senator Marsha Blackburn of Republican from Tennessee 116 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: and in contrast to Senator Romney Jared, I mean, as 117 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: she is one of the Republicans who feels that America 118 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: can't afford to spend this amount of money Democrats have. 119 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 1: President Biden has said, we can't afford not to invest 120 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: in the economy right now. But what do you say 121 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 1: to folks across the country who are concerned about the 122 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: national debt and concerned that we might not be able 123 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 1: to afford this this amount of funds. I say that 124 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: I share your concern, and that President Biden shares your concern, 125 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 1: but that the time for dealing with the fiscal condition 126 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: the fiscal situation is not when you're battling UH a 127 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 1: pandemic of this magnitude. I mean, the President calls it 128 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 1: a wartime footie. The last you know, when we were 129 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: in a wartime putting in UH in World War Two, 130 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 1: the debt to GDP ratio was about where it is 131 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 1: right now, about a hundred and hundred and five hundred 132 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: six percent. Now this doesn't mean, though that UH definitive 133 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: concerns are permanently out of the picture. It means that 134 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: when you're talking about a temporary measure like the rescue plan, UH, 135 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 1: and you're looking at interest rates that are very low, 136 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 1: and you're making investments that have a lifetime payoff, like 137 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: reducing child poverty by half, reopening schools, getting kids back 138 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 1: learning again, and uh, getting teachers back in the classroom, 139 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 1: getting women back in the labor force. Uh. The long 140 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 1: term return on those investments is especially attractive given borrowing 141 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: rates of of you know, one percent on the tenure 142 00:08:57,080 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: treasury is who brig listeners probably know what you're talking 143 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: about when you're talking about more permanent measures, the kinds 144 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 1: of things that are going to be in the recovery 145 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 1: package coming next, not so much the cyclical get to 146 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: the other side of the crisis idea. But once you're there, 147 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 1: what do we do to build back a better economy? Now, 148 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 1: you you want to look at as the President says, 149 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: permanent programs should be paid for, and I mean we're 150 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 1: going with that. This is this is only one half 151 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 1: of the problem, the investment side. You know, in our 152 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 1: show prep meeting with our producer Christine Baratta, I was 153 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:36,559 Speaker 1: looking at the Bloomberg data here and if the current 154 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 1: execution of the vaccination rate holds, then the U the 155 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 1: U s will not return to normal and seven until 156 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 1: seven years, and so execution and the mass inoculation and 157 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,959 Speaker 1: making sure that folks get a vaccine in an orderly fashion, 158 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 1: and making sure the public private partnership is working so 159 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: that people can get vaccines. It's just so incredibly crucial 160 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 1: in order to turning back to normal. And I would 161 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 1: I would imagine that that's a huge part of your 162 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 1: portfolio now in your current occupancy. So what can you 163 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: tell us about making sure that the private sector is 164 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 1: working so that we can get back to normal at 165 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: a faster rate. Well, first of all, the premise of 166 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 1: your question is exactly correct. And not only have economists 167 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,319 Speaker 1: myself others been saying this for a while. I remember 168 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: Jerome Powell, the chair of the Phone Reserves, saying this 169 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 1: at the very beginning of this which is there will 170 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:34,440 Speaker 1: be no sustainable, robust, inclusive economic recovery without a plan 171 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: for the vaccine. Now, you can look at the stock 172 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 1: market in Eucliko GDP, and you can you can see 173 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: some positive numbers, but we're into a K shaped recovery, 174 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,079 Speaker 1: and the folks on the bottom leg of that k 175 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 1: have been disproportially hit by this crisis, both on the 176 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: health and the economic side. UH. When it comes to 177 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 1: UH taking the approach that the Biden administration is to 178 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 1: producing and distributing the vaccine, it's something we haven't seen 179 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: in this country yet. UM. The our administration simply never 180 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 1: got their act together when it came to managing this 181 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: from the federal level. UH. And and the message in 182 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: their case was good luck, states, you're on your own. 183 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 1: That's far from our message. And in fact, it's one 184 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 1: of the reasons why we have significant resources in the 185 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:20,079 Speaker 1: American Rescue Plan that go by the way to states 186 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: and localities. Those states and localeges the wounds that are 187 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 1: going to have to stand up these vaccine centers and 188 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: organize the production and distribution. And that's something that the Republicans, 189 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 1: by the way, have left out of their plan. And 190 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 1: and the President UH just doesn't see a way forward 191 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 1: without helping states and localities put this virus behind us. 192 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: All right, I got one more question for you. I 193 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: know you've got to go, and you've been very generous 194 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:51,200 Speaker 1: with your time, but yesterday Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen holding 195 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:56,319 Speaker 1: an economic meeting about the having the SEC look into 196 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: what happened with Robin Hood and game Stop and making 197 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 1: sure that the market volatility is being fairly regulated. Can 198 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 1: you give us an update in terms of just how 199 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 1: important of a matter this is. It's something that has 200 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 1: been driving a lot of market conversation, as I'm sure 201 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:19,319 Speaker 1: you're aware. Yeah, I think the important point to make there. 202 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: You know, when I was, when I was a commentator 203 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: before I went into the Remember I remember those days. 204 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:29,199 Speaker 1: I would hold forth on, I would hold forth on 205 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: precisely this kind of thing and talk about volatility and 206 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,559 Speaker 1: uh and and markets up ups and downs and speculation. 207 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: I think the key thing to recognize now, and I 208 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 1: say this as someone who is a on the Council 209 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,719 Speaker 1: of Economic Advisor of the President, is that the SEC 210 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: Security Change Commission are the key regulator in this context, 211 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: and they have been watching this development from the beginning 212 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: and not not and they've been I think vigilant about 213 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: telling the public what's going on, their statements that my 214 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: view of the formative, and essentially making sure that the 215 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: plumbing of the markets remains in a solid place. All Right, 216 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: I'll leave it there. Jared Burnstein of the White House 217 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: Council of Economic Advisors are President Biden, thank you so much, 218 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,559 Speaker 1: not for for making the time more Next, this is Bloomberg. 219 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg Sound On with Kevin Curreley on 220 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. My name is Kevin Cirelli. I'm the chief 221 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 1: Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television and for Bloomberg of Radio. 222 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:41,200 Speaker 1: Happy super Bowl Weekend, folks, the weekend performing at the 223 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 1: halftime show? Tom Keane is, I don't know if I 224 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:46,839 Speaker 1: learned this this morning when I came into work before 225 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:48,559 Speaker 1: I went on air. You know, I'm in the break. 226 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 1: I've got the the i ft B cord as they 227 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 1: call it in the biz in my ear. And and 228 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 1: Tom goes, who are you rooting for? I said, I 229 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 1: can't root for Tom Brady. I'm gonna read for for 230 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 1: uh Andy Reid coach Andy Read formerly of the Philadelphia Eagles, 231 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Let's go Chiefs. And and he goes, who's 232 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: performing at the halftime show? I said, the weekend? And 233 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 1: he Tom Keane, a Bloomberg surveillance knew more about the 234 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,960 Speaker 1: weekend than I did. And I gotta tell you that 235 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 1: is why I love Tom Keane. I said, why do 236 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 1: you love the weekend so much, and he said, because 237 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: it's a team sport. They're a team band, and everything 238 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 1: they do, uh is is for the love of the music. 239 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 1: And I was really struck by that, Tom, So I 240 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 1: needed that that Friday wisdom for my good friend and 241 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 1: mentor here, Tom Keene. All Right, enough super Bowl talk, 242 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 1: Let's get to politics of the day, because this panel 243 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 1: was listening to my conversation with Jared Bernstein, a President 244 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: Biden's White House team al maters with me, democratic strategist 245 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: partner at Brownstein Hyatt Farber, and Shrek and Gordon Gray. 246 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: This is Gordon's first time on the program. He is 247 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 1: the director of fiscal policy at the American Action Forum 248 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 1: and he's the former senior policy adviser to Republican of 249 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 1: Ohio Senator Rob Portman. So, Gordon, I'll start with you. 250 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 1: I mean, we just heard Jared's outlook on the weaker 251 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: than expected jobs data. What do you think or do 252 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: you think the White House has it right in terms 253 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 1: of how they're framing the stimulus. Uh So, I think 254 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:19,239 Speaker 1: they are being They're delivering a consistent message on the stimulus. 255 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 1: I think that that is always uh effective And um, 256 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: they are mobilizing a legislative effort to deliver their plan. 257 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: So UM, the question is whether or not they have 258 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: the votes for it. UM. And UM, I think, you know, 259 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 1: the opportunity for this COVID package to be a bipartisan 260 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 1: exercise UM is slipping as it looks like the centate 261 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 1: majority wants to use reconciliation. UM. Uh. That would be 262 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: disappointing UM to be sure, at the beginning of this 263 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 1: new administration. UM. But uh, you know, hope is not 264 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: all lost. There's certainly some things in the the Biden 265 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 1: package that I'd like to think everybody could agree on. 266 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: And then beyond that, UM, you know, I think, echoing 267 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: what UM Larry Summers said today in the post UM 268 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: that you know, beyond that, they're a a larger package UM, 269 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: may not be perfectly appropriate for the situation going forward, 270 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: and it may present some risks. Uh. So uh, you know, 271 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 1: there's getting a little bit of pushback here. UM. But 272 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 1: I think, you know, my own view on what the 273 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 1: size of the package should be is really a matter 274 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 1: of degree. I don't think that the right solution is zero, 275 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: and I think something north of you know, on the 276 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 1: order of two trillion is probably too high. Alright, Well, 277 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 1: we've actually got sound on this coming from directly from 278 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 1: President Joe Biden, regarding the point that you made just 279 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 1: about the need for more economic stimulus, and earlier today, 280 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: President Joe Biden said that the US economy is still 281 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: in trouble and that Republicans are unwilling his words, to 282 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 1: support the magnitude of government assistance that's needed to address 283 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 1: the crisis. Take a listen from the sound on from 284 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: President Biden speaking earlier today in the Oval Office about 285 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,120 Speaker 1: the economic recovery at that rate is going to take 286 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:11,159 Speaker 1: ten years before we get the full employment. It's not 287 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 1: that's not hyperbole. That's a fact. We're going to be 288 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 1: in a situation where take a long, long time. And 289 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,719 Speaker 1: I go back al matter to the point that we 290 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 1: were discussing earlier, which is a Bloomberg compiled all of 291 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 1: the vaccination data and the rates, and if we keep 292 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 1: up the current rate of vaccinations, we're not going to 293 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: get back to normal until seven years now. Obviously, uh 294 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 1: that that's assuming that the vaccination rollout doesn't speed up, 295 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,119 Speaker 1: and and many folks are predicting that we will. But 296 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 1: a lot of work has to be done. Not just 297 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: in terms of investment al but also in terms of 298 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 1: the vaccine. Oh. Absolutely. But look, I think the President 299 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 1: has the politics on his side here. He set out 300 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:54,240 Speaker 1: the parameters of faith. He said one point nine trillion. 301 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 1: It's probably not going to be that much, but whatever 302 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,639 Speaker 1: it is, Uh, it's gonna be dollars well spent to 303 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 1: getting us out of this economic malaise and also recovering 304 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 1: from the pandemic. And from there he stands to um 305 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 1: hold the cards and gain the rewards. And you know, 306 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 1: I think politically, uh, it's just no matter how it 307 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 1: plays out, it's a win win for her. We'll take 308 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: a listen to what else President Biden had to say 309 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,159 Speaker 1: with regards to today's jobs report, because again speaking in 310 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 1: the uh in the Oval office, I mean, you'll look 311 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 1: at that disappointing jobs number, and he's making the case 312 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:33,159 Speaker 1: to both of your points, a Democrat and a Republican respectively, 313 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: that the economy is still in deep trouble. Here is 314 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 1: it's very clear our economy is still in trouble. We 315 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:44,919 Speaker 1: added just six thousand private sector jobs in the country 316 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 1: last month. Overall, we added forty nine thousand jobs. And 317 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: this at a time when we have more than ten 318 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 1: million people out of work, four million people have been 319 00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 1: out of work for six months or longer, and two 320 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: point five million women have been driven from the workforce. 321 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:06,920 Speaker 1: And he went on to say that he is not 322 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 1: willing to cut the size of the four dollar stimulus checks. 323 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:15,159 Speaker 1: Here is I'm not cutting the size of the checks. 324 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,679 Speaker 1: They're going to be four hundred dollars, period. That's what 325 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 1: the American people were promised very quickly. Here's the rest 326 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 1: of my plan. It has money for food and nutrition 327 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 1: so that folks don't go hungry. I think our Republican 328 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 1: friends are going to support that. It extends unemployment insurance, 329 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,399 Speaker 1: which is going to run out on March of this 330 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 1: year to the end of September of this year, and 331 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 1: we'll have much more on that. I mean, they you 332 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,159 Speaker 1: have it. I mean one of the key bargaining chips 333 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,359 Speaker 1: that is not on the table is those stimulus checks. 334 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 1: And again it's setting up for a massive partisan fight 335 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,840 Speaker 1: between Republicans and Democrats. Panel is going to stay with me. 336 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:01,560 Speaker 1: I'm Kevin CURRELLI Chief Washington correspondent, Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio, 337 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Sound On 338 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 1: with Kevin Surley on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Kevin Sireli in 339 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: Chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television and for Bloomberg Radio. 340 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 1: I love my colleagues reporting on the Super Bowl this weekend. 341 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: And in fact, my colleague up on Capitol Hill he 342 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,120 Speaker 1: shoots a lot of my interviews up on Capitol Hill. 343 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 1: Harvey just texted me in the break and said, go 344 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,400 Speaker 1: Tom Brady. And he's a Patriots fan. Harvey's a Patriots 345 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:42,919 Speaker 1: fan and he's still rooting for Tom Brady. I I 346 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: guess once you're a Brady fan, you're always a Brady fan. 347 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,680 Speaker 1: It's something I personally don't understand. But the super Bowl, 348 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 1: I'm reading from the Bloomberg terminal. Super Bowl shows staying 349 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: power of wings and guac. According to our supply lines report. 350 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,439 Speaker 1: For many Amerrora kins, the Super Bowl each winter offers 351 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 1: another good excuse to gorge on the national finger food 352 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 1: chicken wings. But this year, the National Football League Championship 353 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 1: game may also be a turning point to a broader 354 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 1: recovery in the chicken business from the coronavirus pandemic that 355 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 1: dragged down demands. I love it. I love that reporting 356 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 1: from Michael Hertzer and Marvin G. Perez. Then I was 357 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:27,120 Speaker 1: on my other tab on the Bloomberg terminal. I love 358 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 1: the story from Henry wren Us Pizza chains see potential 359 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: for a record Super Bowl Sunday. Get this, only three 360 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: per cent who will watch the game will go to 361 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: a bar or restaurant. Obviously it's COVID nineteen season. There 362 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 1: that strong demand. Everybody staying home is pushing us pizzeria's 363 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 1: to staff up and two stockpile. Fascinating to see how 364 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:57,440 Speaker 1: the supply and demand has impacted UH this UH entire weekend. 365 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: But the favorite UH story from this weekend is this, 366 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 1: of course, is what the NFL is doing UH with 367 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: regards to vaccinations. New York State trails only Arizona and 368 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen hospitalizations, but the NFL is offering stadiums as 369 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 1: a potential location for there to be mass vaccine distribution. UH. 370 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 1: And this came out earlier today in a letter from 371 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 1: NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell to President Joe Biden. Al matter 372 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,719 Speaker 1: is still with me, democratic strategist and a partner at 373 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,399 Speaker 1: Brownstein Hyatt Farber and Shrek and Gordon Gray, who was 374 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 1: the director of Fiscal Policy at the American Action Forum. Gordon, 375 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 1: who are you gonna be written for this weekend? I 376 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: think I gotta go with the chiefs Um good answer. Yeah, 377 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,200 Speaker 1: I'm I'm sort of with you. I I just can't 378 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:53,160 Speaker 1: be team Brady all the time, and I respect him 379 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 1: so much as an athlete, and I hear he's a vegan. Now, 380 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,679 Speaker 1: al matter, who are you written for? Oh, I'm definitely 381 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 1: rooting for the box and for Brady. I mean, it 382 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,679 Speaker 1: would just be absurdly historical if he were to do 383 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: this in his eleventh Super Bowl. Before your show, I 384 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 1: went online to see how many people have been to 385 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,880 Speaker 1: how many Super Bowls? The next closest athlete is six games. 386 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 1: It's just preposters what he's done and to perform at 387 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 1: this level, it's it's incredible to watch, I will say. 388 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,640 Speaker 1: I mean, there's no doubting. I mean, he's he's got 389 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:27,199 Speaker 1: a lot of Super Bowl rings. Keeping it back to 390 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 1: its policy, I I don't even have a pivot. You know, 391 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: it's Friday. I couldn't even pivot. I was trying to 392 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,360 Speaker 1: think of a creative way to get back to Capitol Hill. 393 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,679 Speaker 1: My mind's on the super Bowl, Sorry, bus Um, but 394 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: the reconciliation process is going to begin in earnest on Monday. 395 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: I've got sounds on this, my dad. I've got sounds 396 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 1: on this from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Take a listen 397 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,919 Speaker 1: to what she said about where this process stands and 398 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,640 Speaker 1: where it's gonna go on Monday. Here she is. On Monday, 399 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 1: we will begin working on the cifics of the bills. 400 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 1: Hopefully in a two week period of time, we'll send 401 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 1: something over to the Senate, and this will be done 402 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:12,439 Speaker 1: long before the d date of the expiration of so 403 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 1: many initiatives. You know, I still hear from my sources 404 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,159 Speaker 1: al monitor that it's gonna take four to six weeks 405 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,640 Speaker 1: or three to six weeks for this ultimately to ends 406 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:24,800 Speaker 1: up on President Biden's desk. But you know, what are 407 00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:28,600 Speaker 1: you hearing from from your neck of the woods. Well, 408 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 1: I hear the same thing that you do, Kevin. And 409 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 1: I was surprised pleasantly by the Speaker's pronouncement about two weeks. 410 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 1: I mean, that's aggressive, but that's what the American people 411 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 1: need and want. And again, the politics are on the 412 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 1: Democrats side here, and if they can produce a victory 413 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 1: here in the next two to three weeks, get checks 414 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 1: in people's pockets, get vaccines out the door, and more 415 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 1: ppe on the streets, unemployment checks arriving. That's that's just 416 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 1: good for them, It's good for America. UM. And it's 417 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 1: because they're throwing their full weight and force the entire 418 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 1: federal government behind this, which is something the previous administration 419 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,560 Speaker 1: did not do you know, Gordon, though, I mean, do 420 00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 1: you expect any Republicans, any Republicans to vote for this? 421 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 1: I mean, we saw Senator Romney come out offer some 422 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 1: type of compromise, But is this just bad politics for 423 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 1: Republicans to vote for more spending, especially if the Democrats 424 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,199 Speaker 1: have the majorities and they don't even necessarily at this 425 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 1: point because of the reconciliation route need the process to 426 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 1: go forth with Republican votes. Uh So, I would actually 427 00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:36,439 Speaker 1: agree with several of the things that I'll mention, which is, 428 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 1: you know, whoever gets credited and right now, you know, 429 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,959 Speaker 1: President Biden is in charge, and so UM it is 430 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 1: his responsibility and his opportunity to uh tackle the virus. 431 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 1: And so if that's done, then absolutely the politics will 432 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 1: be on his side and the Democrats side. Let's remember that, 433 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 1: you know, President George W. Bush sent checks out to 434 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 1: folks um during his administration right before the Great Recession. 435 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 1: Nobody remembers that because fundamentally the problem was the financial crisis. 436 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 1: Right now, fundamentally the problem is the virus. And so 437 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 1: if this administration, you know, takes the vaccination um uh 438 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 1: challenge and up and ups their games certainly over the 439 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 1: last administration, they will get the credit and they will 440 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 1: they will deserve the credit there. And so the package 441 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 1: that's before senators and in a number of weeks and um, 442 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,960 Speaker 1: it is an aggressive timeline, UM, but it's it's within 443 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,160 Speaker 1: the realm of reason. UM. It'll depend on what's in it. Um. 444 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 1: Reconciliation doesn't have to be a partisan process, but in 445 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,119 Speaker 1: the modern era it has certainly become. So so going 446 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 1: this route does, in my view, lower the likelihood that 447 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,440 Speaker 1: you'll see Republicans on board. But fundamentally, you know, it 448 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,359 Speaker 1: should be about the policies, not the process. If the 449 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:57,280 Speaker 1: policies are in the bill are substantially worthwhile, even if 450 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,159 Speaker 1: some of them are misguided, then I think there's a 451 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 1: good argument for Senators to support the measure. It depends 452 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,640 Speaker 1: on what's in it and and let's not forget that 453 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,800 Speaker 1: the impeachment trial for former President Donald Trump has also 454 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,120 Speaker 1: set to begin next week. Coming up, we're gonna dive 455 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 1: into the politics of that and whether any Republicans will 456 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: vote to convict and and what's an easier vote for 457 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,120 Speaker 1: a Republican right now, That's been my question of the week. 458 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,560 Speaker 1: Is it to vote for conviction or to vote for 459 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 1: one point nine trillion dollars in stimulus? And I think 460 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:29,639 Speaker 1: the latter issue is going to be one of the 461 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 1: driving forces of the upcoming cycle that's coming up next 462 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 1: panel stage. I'm Kevin Curreli, chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg 463 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 1: Television and for Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg. This is 464 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Sound On with Kevin Surreley on Bloomberg Radio. I'm 465 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:04,840 Speaker 1: Kevin Curreli, chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television and for 466 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Al maters with me Democratic strategist Gordon Gray, 467 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 1: a Republican insider and the director of the Fiscal Policy 468 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 1: at the American Action Forum. All Right, I can't believe 469 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,639 Speaker 1: we've gone this long talking without not talking about it. 470 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:23,720 Speaker 1: Which is next week, the second trial for conviction for 471 00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:27,440 Speaker 1: former President Donald Trump. It has it's gonna dominate next 472 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,679 Speaker 1: week's news cycle in terms of the mainstream press and 473 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:32,840 Speaker 1: what's going on. And President Trump has come out and 474 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,200 Speaker 1: said if he is not going to be showing up 475 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 1: at the at the trial despite Democrats inviting him to 476 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 1: do so, Gordon, Greg, what are you gonna be looking 477 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:49,960 Speaker 1: out for at the trial next week? Unfortunately, UM, I 478 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 1: haven't given the trial as much attention as it it 479 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 1: probably deserves, in part because I was really disappointed by 480 00:28:56,200 --> 00:29:01,280 Speaker 1: the the roll call vote already on UM Senator Paul's 481 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 1: uh motion against the trial earlier. Um My, you know, 482 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 1: my my own view is, I mean, I think they 483 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:13,880 Speaker 1: should convict the Donald Trump, but the roll calls suggest 484 00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 1: that there just aren't the votes for that, and so 485 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 1: I I regret that UM Congress may spend another week 486 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 1: talking about Donald Trump and getting nothing out of it. 487 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,840 Speaker 1: Do you think, Gordon, just to follow up here, that 488 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 1: there will be any Republicans who vote to convict I 489 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 1: think that's possible. Um. I, Um, you know, there's a 490 00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 1: handful that are through have always considered possible in this space, UM, 491 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,240 Speaker 1: but certainly not a sufficient amount to um bar Donald 492 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 1: Trump from ever serving again. And and al Motter, I mean, 493 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:54,280 Speaker 1: when you how do you think that the impeachment trial 494 00:29:54,400 --> 00:30:00,240 Speaker 1: next week will do anything to uh over overcloud old. 495 00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 1: The conversations about economic stimulus are slow down, rather the 496 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,920 Speaker 1: process of economic stimulus because of all of the sensation 497 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 1: and the controversy surrounding the former president and what happened 498 00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 1: on January six, it shouldn't. The House is going to 499 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 1: go first, and if they take two three weeks, the 500 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,880 Speaker 1: impeachment trial should be done by them. One thing I 501 00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 1: would note about this conversation I agree with the comments 502 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,239 Speaker 1: about the likelihood of the vote is if you look 503 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,320 Speaker 1: at what just happened in the House with Liz Cheney, 504 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 1: is when members are allowed to vote anonymously, the truth 505 00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 1: comes out and Donald Trump would be convicted and removed 506 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 1: prevented from further office. If the Senators were allowed to 507 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 1: vote anonymously. The problem is they have to vote publicly, 508 00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 1: and they're all terrified of him because his cult continues. 509 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,440 Speaker 1: And that's where we find ourselves. And that's why I'm 510 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,160 Speaker 1: not too excited about next week, because it's a play 511 00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 1: where you already know the conclusion well and and and 512 00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,040 Speaker 1: I hear you on that in terms of the dynamics 513 00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,960 Speaker 1: of this, but for sentiment for Senate Minority Leader Mitch 514 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 1: McConnell to be able essentially to say that, you know, 515 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:11,360 Speaker 1: he's had some tough talk for former President Trump's involvement 516 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:15,200 Speaker 1: in in what happened on January six, but now he 517 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:19,320 Speaker 1: has also raised questions about the constitutionality of convicting a 518 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,560 Speaker 1: former president or even holding a trial for a former president. 519 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:27,760 Speaker 1: Yesterday on this program, Senator Blackburn outlined her concerns about 520 00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,520 Speaker 1: the president that it would set to have trial for 521 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:34,800 Speaker 1: former members of office, former presidents once they leave office. 522 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,200 Speaker 1: Al is there any you know, I know you're a Democrat, 523 00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,080 Speaker 1: but do do you share any of those concerns? No, 524 00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 1: that's other nonsense. And in fact, Senator Blackburn knows this 525 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,960 Speaker 1: if her staff prepared her that senior members of administrations 526 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 1: have been impeached and had conviction trials after they left 527 00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 1: left their administration posts. It just hasn't happened with the president, 528 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 1: and no one's no one's raised this before. The vote 529 00:31:56,360 --> 00:32:00,440 Speaker 1: on constitutionality was a purely political one, and again people 530 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 1: didn't have to vote publicly. They would vote their conscience. 531 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 1: And he wouldn't be doing so well. Gordon, do you 532 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:14,959 Speaker 1: share that assessment entirely? Uh, it's simply um, yeah, the 533 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,320 Speaker 1: conduct of the of the former president, in my in 534 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,200 Speaker 1: my mind is pretty clear. And UM, I do think 535 00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,720 Speaker 1: that the last vote does show some of the limits 536 00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:30,800 Speaker 1: um of what um uh congressional leadership can expect um 537 00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:36,360 Speaker 1: from their conference. Um. Just because um Lear McConnell says Okay, 538 00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,680 Speaker 1: you guys can vote your conscience, um or vote this 539 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 1: way or that way, doesn't mean they will because a 540 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: lot of these members are still absolutely terrified of Donald Trump, 541 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,360 Speaker 1: and that's what's going to animate to vote. Alvill Senator 542 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 1: Joe mentioned votes to convict I would think so, yes, 543 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 1: even even if he's the same I mean, I mean 544 00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,479 Speaker 1: because the issue being a centrist Democrat in a deeply 545 00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 1: read state, you know, that could raise some significant issues 546 00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,960 Speaker 1: in a state where uh, former President Trump is still 547 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 1: very popular amongst the base. So it'll be will be 548 00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 1: fascinating to watch how Theo's centrist Democrats turn out. All right, 549 00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,640 Speaker 1: let's pivot now to one of my favorite parts of 550 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 1: our program, which is where the panel tells me what 551 00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,400 Speaker 1: they're watching and what's next. Because here at Bloomberg, we're 552 00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,800 Speaker 1: all about what's next now modern, what's next for you? 553 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:25,920 Speaker 1: What's an issue that you're watching that you don't think 554 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:30,520 Speaker 1: has gotten enough coverage or enough discussion. I'm watching that 555 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,560 Speaker 1: what's called the Defense Production Act. UH. It is a 556 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 1: un tapped law that's almost never used, that was created 557 00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 1: during World War Two, which allows the government vast powers 558 00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:46,320 Speaker 1: to essentially mandate corporate America to do things that benefit 559 00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:49,120 Speaker 1: the American people. And it's being now used for the 560 00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:53,480 Speaker 1: first time aggressively by this by the administration to ramp 561 00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,520 Speaker 1: up production of vaccines, to ramp up production of surgical 562 00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:59,880 Speaker 1: gloves and other equipment. UH. They're now mulling over whether 563 00:33:59,920 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 1: or not to send masks every single American, which is 564 00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:07,120 Speaker 1: something that President Trump's administration looked at and then declined 565 00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,840 Speaker 1: to do. And again, UH, the administration is going to 566 00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,680 Speaker 1: be rewarded or punished based on how quickly we come 567 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,440 Speaker 1: out of this, and they are using every tool they 568 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 1: can UH. And I think it's terrific, And it's not 569 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,640 Speaker 1: as heavily reported the story as it should be. Well, 570 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 1: in terms of beyond the masks, there's there's other uses 571 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:26,839 Speaker 1: for this, And I think this is a great point 572 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,600 Speaker 1: just about the need for the private sector, whether it's 573 00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:33,480 Speaker 1: components of distribution for the vaccine or whether it's supplies 574 00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:37,200 Speaker 1: for the supplied chains of vaccination distribution. We've heard a 575 00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,360 Speaker 1: lot about dry ice, for example, or parts for refrigerators 576 00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,840 Speaker 1: to store the vaccines. I mean, this is a massive, 577 00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:45,920 Speaker 1: massive issue in terms of just the need for public 578 00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:49,600 Speaker 1: and private partnerships, Is it not? Yes, it is, and 579 00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:53,239 Speaker 1: you know not to just make sure your listeners understand, 580 00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:56,080 Speaker 1: these companies aren't being forced to do something for free. 581 00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,160 Speaker 1: The government reimburses them and pays them a reasonable about 582 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,879 Speaker 1: the money for these act ativities. Um, you know, they 583 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,680 Speaker 1: buy the vaccines, they pay them to do the manufacturing, 584 00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,400 Speaker 1: they give them money to ramp up the distribution. And 585 00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 1: so it's a great example of what can be done 586 00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:14,880 Speaker 1: when corporate America and our massive federal government come together 587 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,120 Speaker 1: on behalf of the American people. As you put it, 588 00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:22,480 Speaker 1: Gordon Gray, what's next for you? So I'm watching the 589 00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:27,040 Speaker 1: reconciliation process pretty closely former Budget Committee staffers. So I'm 590 00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:30,920 Speaker 1: really curious to see, Uh, if the Senate majority um 591 00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:35,640 Speaker 1: goes quote nuclear and changes the reconciliation rules, I don't 592 00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,680 Speaker 1: imagine that will be likely uh in the near future, 593 00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 1: but you know there's talk about another reconciliation bill later 594 00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 1: in the year for things like healthcare or immigration. So UM, 595 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:46,800 Speaker 1: I'm actually spending a lot of time, uh, sort of 596 00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,880 Speaker 1: talking with folks about UM what possibilities may be there, 597 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 1: and then beyond that, I'm also keeping pretty close track 598 00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,680 Speaker 1: on the multi employer pension issue. This has been an 599 00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:04,240 Speaker 1: issue it UM is of tremendous importance to UM workers, 600 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,160 Speaker 1: you know, across the United States. UM typically you know, 601 00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:13,040 Speaker 1: large union pension plans that have come under increasing distress 602 00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,560 Speaker 1: over the years. And in Congress has been working in 603 00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:19,000 Speaker 1: fits and starts UM, sometimes in a bipartisan manner, other 604 00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:23,560 Speaker 1: times not to address the issue. And uh, I'm I 605 00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:26,600 Speaker 1: think this issue is coming into the four pretty quickly. 606 00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,719 Speaker 1: You know. This is why Gordon Gray is such an insider. 607 00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:31,440 Speaker 1: And on a Friday, I don't want to get people 608 00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,279 Speaker 1: nervous when he says the nuclear option. Folks, if you're 609 00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:38,320 Speaker 1: if you're listening along, he's not talking about nuclear weapons, 610 00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,759 Speaker 1: I promise He's talking about what what it's dubbed up 611 00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:45,640 Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill. Uh. And what I spent years chasing 612 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:49,960 Speaker 1: reporters are not report chasing lawmakers after was are they 613 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:53,480 Speaker 1: going to deploy the nuclear option, which is a voting strategy. 614 00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,640 Speaker 1: Why don't you, Why don't you explain it for our 615 00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:57,560 Speaker 1: for our audience, so we don't we don't hit the 616 00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:03,400 Speaker 1: panic button on on Friday? Sound good? Uh So, just 617 00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,160 Speaker 1: just briefly, essentially, in the Senate, it normally takes sixty 618 00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:10,360 Speaker 1: votes to get anything passed. UM. That's a function of 619 00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,200 Speaker 1: the what's called the filibuster. It basically gives UM, the 620 00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,040 Speaker 1: minority of the opportunity to uh kind of slow things 621 00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:22,320 Speaker 1: down and UH. Reconciliation is a process that allows laws 622 00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:26,040 Speaker 1: to be passed without UM being without being able to 623 00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:29,920 Speaker 1: be filibustered. But to qualify for reconciliation, things have to 624 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,399 Speaker 1: be directly related to sort of budget stuff. So there 625 00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:34,840 Speaker 1: has to be other words, if you're going to spend money, 626 00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,520 Speaker 1: you've got to remove money. And it's it's a cloture vote. 627 00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,640 Speaker 1: We're getting so in the weeds. Genie Cha always makes 628 00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:42,759 Speaker 1: fun of me when I talk about schoolhouse Rocket. I say, 629 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,000 Speaker 1: you know what, though, that's how we all learned the 630 00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:47,560 Speaker 1: civic stuff. My thanks to al Mahdern. My thanks to 631 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,840 Speaker 1: Gordon Gray for a great discussion this hour. Have a 632 00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:54,160 Speaker 1: great weekend, both of you. February is Black History Month 633 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:58,280 Speaker 1: and Bloomberg Radio is celebrating celebrating pivotal moments in US 634 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,800 Speaker 1: black history throughout the month, and here with today's installment 635 00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,719 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's Young on This day in Black History. In 636 00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:10,240 Speaker 1: twenty eight year old Barack Obama became the first African 637 00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 1: American named president of the Harvard Law Review. The job 638 00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,800 Speaker 1: was considered the highest student position at Harvard Law School. 639 00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:20,279 Speaker 1: In a New York Times article the following day, Obama said, 640 00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:23,200 Speaker 1: the fact that I've been elected shows a lot of progress, 641 00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,880 Speaker 1: but it's important that stories like mine aren't used to 642 00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:30,560 Speaker 1: say that everything is okay for blacks. The Columbia University 643 00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,839 Speaker 1: graduate and Harvard University law student, of course, went on 644 00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,080 Speaker 1: to also be the first black President of the United 645 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:41,120 Speaker 1: States of America. That's today in Black History. I'm rened 646 00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:45,440 Speaker 1: A Young Bloomberg Radio. Thank you Rena Young for that. 647 00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:48,440 Speaker 1: And you can download the Bloomberg Sound on podcast on 648 00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:52,680 Speaker 1: Apple iTunes, at Bloomberg dot com, or by downloading the 649 00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. You can also find me on radio 650 00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:59,080 Speaker 1: dot com, I Heart Radio, and Spotify. That does it 651 00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:00,640 Speaker 1: for me. My name is ke Been Sorelli on, the 652 00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:04,120 Speaker 1: chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television and for Bloomberg Radio. 653 00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:07,319 Speaker 1: Shout out to our team, executive producer Christine Arrata, and 654 00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:11,560 Speaker 1: of course Matte Matt Shirley as well. This is Bloombergrand