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Speaker 1: Let's get the Kim Forest ce Io at Book Capital Partners.

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Speaker 1: So I mentioned you said markets are nervous. Perhaps it's

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Speaker 1: it's good to be nervous at this time. We might

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Speaker 1: have seen the peak of inflation, Kim, but we doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem like we've seen the peak of Fed hawkishness. And

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Speaker 1: that should have people nervous, right absolutely. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: there um their charter to drive this economy, right, and

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Speaker 1: but we don't want it to drive into the ditch

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Speaker 1: of recession. And I think that is really what is

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Speaker 1: driving people crazy and investors wondering. They hear all these

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Speaker 1: hawkish comments, they listen to the items that you guys

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Speaker 1: just ran through in the news, especially on China. Right

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Speaker 1: it's it is not a growing economy, and there saying

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Speaker 1: what are we doing? And I think that's a good

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Speaker 1: question for everybody, not just investors. But I think this

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Speaker 1: is a real pivot, pivotal time for the FED to

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Speaker 1: step up and tell us about how it thinks about things.

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Speaker 1: And that will happen on Friday UM in a meaningful way.

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Speaker 1: But until then they've been front running with we're serious

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Speaker 1: about inflation, which is good, but we also need to

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Speaker 1: be serious about, you know, not overplaying our hand here.

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Speaker 1: How said? Now you though that we're going to get

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Speaker 1: some clarity on Friday, because it does depend on the data,

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Speaker 1: It does depend on what inflation does next. There are

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Speaker 1: so many variables. Are we just going to get more

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Speaker 1: equivocation like we saw on the last set of five

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Speaker 1: minutes um? Probably? But what I would like to hear

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Speaker 1: is kind of the rules that they're thinking about, like

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Speaker 1: the framework. I think that would be the most interesting

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Speaker 1: thing that we could hear from them. Whether or not

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Speaker 1: we're going to hear it, I don't know. We'll see.

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Speaker 1: It may be that we misinterpreted your own pal as

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Speaker 1: being more devish than what he really was as a

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Speaker 1: result of his mention that we were sort of close

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Speaker 1: to neutral on the FED funds rate. So let's think

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Speaker 1: about that. Let's let's go back to if the market

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Speaker 1: did get it right and he's more devish. It seems

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Speaker 1: like you think that he's more correct than this parade

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Speaker 1: of FED officials who have come out in the past

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks and basically have tried to roll back

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Speaker 1: the comments from pell Yes, and I have because I

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Speaker 1: can't see especially I understand where in the US and

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Speaker 1: our inflation is in the US, and the FET have

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Speaker 1: to look at the US. But Bloomberg's or an international firm,

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Speaker 1: and you guys can see, um, at least by the

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Speaker 1: news that you're providing, that things are not great all

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Speaker 1: over the world. So this is not like a coordinated

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Speaker 1: effort for other countries who are our large partners to

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Speaker 1: be raising their interest rates and that is a double

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Speaker 1: blow to the US because that makes our products more expensive. Right,

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Speaker 1: you really have to remember that, so can us some

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Speaker 1: time discussing the bigger picture in terms of inflation. Were

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Speaker 1: too nix potentially for the FIT. But if you're an investor,

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Speaker 1: your job is to make some money out of all

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Speaker 1: of this. What do you Where do you put money

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Speaker 1: to work? Right now? Sure? Well, I think that growth

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Speaker 1: at a reasonable prices never out of style, because that's

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Speaker 1: what I do. But um, and that's the way I

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Speaker 1: see the world actually, so UM. So I'm looking all

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Speaker 1: over and I am finding value in a lot of places.

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Speaker 1: One is in UPS and I really like this company

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Speaker 1: because it um it thinks differently, and that's because the

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Speaker 1: CEO currently is she's been there for about two years.

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Speaker 1: She was the c FO of Home depot, and so

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Speaker 1: she thinks differently than a lot of the people that

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Speaker 1: grew up in this firm. In UPS, usually you start out,

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Speaker 1: believe it or not, as somebody driving a truck and

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Speaker 1: you end up as a CEO. It's it's a great

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Speaker 1: firm to work for. By what she's doing is firing

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Speaker 1: some of her clients that aren't making money. And I

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Speaker 1: think that that's really what a lot of companies need

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Speaker 1: to do is decide what they are and make sure

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Speaker 1: that they can return shareholder value by making sure they

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Speaker 1: have the appropriate clients. And you know, I think that's

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Speaker 1: a great thing to do. Did you see the downgrade

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Speaker 1: from Evicord today on UPS and does that not resonate

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Speaker 1: with you? It doesn't. I mean I was a sell

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Speaker 1: side analyst, and I understand what they're doing. They have

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Speaker 1: very short term um time periods that they want these

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Speaker 1: stocks to performing. So I understand that they're looking out

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Speaker 1: at the next twelve months and it might be challenging

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Speaker 1: for the company, but we're looking three to five years out,

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Speaker 1: and that's why we're bullish on companies like that. So

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Speaker 1: the ownings report cards so far been than a lot

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Speaker 1: of people expected. Heating into this ending season, in this

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Speaker 1: tough picture that we've outlined. So going forward, your optimistic

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Speaker 1: about future courts of endings? Um? I am. I actually

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Speaker 1: think that we are in a recession right now, and

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Speaker 1: that it is a jobless or a job full recession.

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Speaker 1: We haven't seen people laid off, um, and we may not.

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Speaker 1: So I'm thinking that if inflation can um be a

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Speaker 1: little bit more under control or a lot more under control,

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Speaker 1: and a couple of good things go our way, maybe, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, something happens in the Ukraine Russia conflict and

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Speaker 1: energy prices fall, we might be set for um a

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Speaker 1: better future. And I'm not just looking on the bright side.

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Speaker 1: I understand all the downside, but I think if you

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Speaker 1: look too far too much at all the things that

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Speaker 1: can go wrong or are going wrong, you're gonna miss

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Speaker 1: the big picture, and that's we're investors, and things generally

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Speaker 1: get better at some point in the next three to

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Speaker 1: five years. There are people who think that the current

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Speaker 1: slowdown in the economy, the technical recession, is nothing compared

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Speaker 1: to the big story that's coming next year, and they're

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Speaker 1: they're predicting a full blown recession. Uh. I think you know,

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Speaker 1: we're journalists, so we don't really have have a part

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Speaker 1: in this, but it feels actually like the underlying economy

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Speaker 1: is is still reasonably strong. Uh, And that as long

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Speaker 1: as you don't get a banking crisis or a housing crisis,

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Speaker 1: you could be in pretty good shape once you pull

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Speaker 1: out of this. It seems like that's the way you

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Speaker 1: feel as well, And that the FED doesn't have to

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Speaker 1: go back to zero interest rates. Well, that's right, and

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Speaker 1: I would be really disappointed if they do go back

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Speaker 1: without a crisis to zero interest rates, even with the

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Speaker 1: low interest rate environment that we find ourselves worldwide. But

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Speaker 1: you're right, And here's why. Most of the companies have

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Speaker 1: good see r M and e ERP systems, so they

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Speaker 1: know what supply is, they know what demand is, and

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Speaker 1: we're not in that nineteen seventies where we really didn't

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Speaker 1: know how to collect data on what our demand was

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Speaker 1: in a company. So we're well informed, we can adapt

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Speaker 1: quickly and um, and that's why I believe we're in

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Speaker 1: a relatively good position. Um. We're light on manpower anyhow,

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Speaker 1: and even if let's say another half of the jobs

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Speaker 1: that are on the Jolts job list disappear, we're still

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Speaker 1: way above you know we we have more jobs out

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Speaker 1: there than people to fill them. The employment market still

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Speaker 1: very tight. Kim Forest ce IO at Buka Capital Patners,

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Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us on the Daybreak Asia