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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, thanks for listening to Breaking Points with Crystal

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Speaker 1: and Sager. We're going to be totally upfront with you.

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Speaker 1: hour early before everyone else. You get to hear our

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Speaker 1: reactions to each other's monologues. You get to participate and

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Speaker 1: weekly ask me any things, and you don't need to

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Speaker 1: com become a Premium member today, which is available in

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Speaker 1: the show notes. Enjoy the show, guys, Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: We have Ryssel. Indeed, we do, of course a lot

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Speaker 1: of breaking news updates to get to this morning. We're

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Speaker 1: going to bring you the very latest, as far as

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Speaker 1: we can tell from the ground in Ukraine, the results

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Speaker 1: of those diplomatic talks that we previewed for you yesterday,

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Speaker 1: all of the complete psychopathic idiots who are pushing for

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Speaker 1: a no fly zone aka World War three, World War three.

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Speaker 1: Thankfully the Biden administration so far resisting those calls, but

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Speaker 1: the pressure is being ramped up. So we've got those

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Speaker 1: details for you. Also some profoundly unhelpful comments from Hillary Clinton,

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Speaker 1: former Secretary of State, and also the way that big

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Speaker 1: tech is responding to Russia's war in Ukraine in a

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Speaker 1: very troubling way as well. Those details matter a lot,

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Speaker 1: very latest in terms of reading the tea leaves in

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Speaker 1: Russian propaganda media about whether a nuclear war is a

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Speaker 1: real possibility. Some very troubling signs there that we should

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Speaker 1: all take extremely seriously. Also the very latest on how

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Speaker 1: the American people are feeling about all of this, what

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Speaker 1: they think that we should do. We're going to preview

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Speaker 1: tonight's State of the Union speech and very excited about

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Speaker 1: our love coverage for tonight. Please join us here. It

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Speaker 1: will be soccer, it will be me. Kyle Kolinsky, Marshal COSLAF.

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Speaker 1: We'll kick things off about eight pm a little pre

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Speaker 1: show analysis. We'll stream the speech live so you can

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Speaker 1: stay right here on the channel and watch it. Then

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Speaker 1: we'll have post speech analysis as well with a few

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Speaker 1: special guests. So very much looking forward to that. I'm

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Speaker 1: really excited for it. It's going to be fun. It's

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Speaker 1: going to be a big speech regardless, just for the

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Speaker 1: international community obviously, but also look, we haven't talked about

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Speaker 1: domestic politics in a while, and Biden is going to

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Speaker 1: be certain in order to bring it back to that.

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Speaker 1: So very important and I hope you guys tune in.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be a fun night. But let's start

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Speaker 1: with the update in Ukraine. So obviously this is very timely.

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Speaker 1: We're shooting this early in the morning. So here's the

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Speaker 1: latest in terms of the battle situation. Let's put this

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Speaker 1: up on the screen. Satellite imagery open source being used.

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Speaker 1: We found this one here which shows a forty mile

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Speaker 1: long Russian convoy which is closing in on the capital

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Speaker 1: city of Kiev. Now it's important to note the convoy

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Speaker 1: hasn't actually engaged yet in any combat activity, but this

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Speaker 1: is a huge amount of firepower crystal that is being

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Speaker 1: brought to bear on the capital. This matter is because

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Speaker 1: we're about to get to the diplomatic solution, but the

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Speaker 1: convoy almost immediately materialized after the diplomatic talks broke down

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Speaker 1: and there was no real solution. So they're bringing a

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Speaker 1: lot of firepower onto the city now. From what we

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Speaker 1: can tell so far, the major military objective of the

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Speaker 1: Russian military in Ukraine is to obviously capture all of

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Speaker 1: the key centers of power. That includes the ports, but

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Speaker 1: of course the capital city, the seat of government, that's

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Speaker 1: where President Zelenski is Now. Just this morning, we weren't

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Speaker 1: able to cut the element because it literally just happened overnight.

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Speaker 1: But in the city of Kharkiv there was a major

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Speaker 1: m So this is an MLRS rocket system that plunged

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Speaker 1: into a government building, blew this thing completely apart right

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Speaker 1: in the middle of kind of the city square. There's

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Speaker 1: also been multiple attacks either missile rockets, unclear exactly which

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Speaker 1: one on Ukrainian military bunkers that appear to have happened. Now.

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Speaker 1: The reason that this matters is that this shows an

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Speaker 1: increase in the level of firepower that the Russians are

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Speaker 1: willing to employ in taking their strategic military objectives. Also,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing continually more bellicost rhetoric from Russia. There are

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Speaker 1: indications right now that Putin obviously defiant in the eyes

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Speaker 1: of the West. Dmitry Peskov who said that the who

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Speaker 1: is the Kremlins spokesperson said this morning, who cares about

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Speaker 1: the sanctions? So all indications that they're going to be

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Speaker 1: employing more firepower. Unfortunately, that just seems to be the

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Speaker 1: almost certain direction that this is going to go. Let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 1: We alluded to it yesterday. This is the current battle map.

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Speaker 1: So you can see that the front line remains relatively

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Speaker 1: similar to where we were yesterday, which is that we

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Speaker 1: have the campaign against Kharkiev, which is near the border. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: we have the pincer attack on the city of Kiev.

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Speaker 1: Also in the south in Mariopol don Yatsk obviously already

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Speaker 1: had that military objective, and then down there near the

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Speaker 1: Crimean Peninsula where you already had a significant amount of

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Speaker 1: Russian forces. So as of today, the front line remains

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Speaker 1: relatively the same. Another thing that we brought you yesterday,

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Speaker 1: and we just wanted to bring you guys video evidence,

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Speaker 1: is there appears to have been use of cluster munitions

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Speaker 1: in the city of Kharkiev. Let's put this up there

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Speaker 1: on the screen. You can see here this is the

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Speaker 1: use of cluster munitions, which are banned by the Geneva Conventions,

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Speaker 1: long been used by the Russian military in the Syrians

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Speaker 1: of a war, and now used here again. Now, the

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Speaker 1: reason that they're not supposed to be used is because

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Speaker 1: they disproportionately. You go boom everywhere, and it can kill

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of civilians. So obviously it's terrible and

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Speaker 1: it's a track of tragic event. But that's kind of

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Speaker 1: where we seem to stand right now in terms of

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Speaker 1: the actual battle progress. Crystal no heavy fighting overnight, some

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Speaker 1: use of missiles and indication of escalation to come. And unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: I think that convoy spells death for a lot of people. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean that convoy reportedly now forty miles long. Initially

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Speaker 1: we're hearing three miles long, then it was seventeen miles long,

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Speaker 1: just keeps growing by the day. And I mean, this

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Speaker 1: is just a sitting threat outside of the city, and

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Speaker 1: I think we should not dilute ourselves here. That while

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainian resistance has been very brave in the Ukrainian

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Speaker 1: military has been quite effective, and no doubt that Putin

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Speaker 1: has made some serious sort of strategic errors and miscalculations

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Speaker 1: in thinking that this would go a lot quicker and

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Speaker 1: a lot more easily and not require overwhelming firepower in

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Speaker 1: order to achieve his key objectives. Let's not delude ourselves

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Speaker 1: into thinking that the Ukrainians are in a position to

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Speaker 1: outright win this. People really need to check their expectation

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Speaker 1: exactly because Russia seems to have gone in with the

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Speaker 1: intention of doing this in sort of a small way

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Speaker 1: and potentially trying to avoid civilian life because remember again

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Speaker 1: they've sold their soldiers and their citizens on this is

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Speaker 1: a peacekeeping mission, and we're going to be greeted as

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Speaker 1: liberators and all of this stuff. So on the one hand,

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Speaker 1: you also have a very uneven lopsided dynamic in terms

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Speaker 1: of these sort of propaganda wars. The Ukrainians are obviously

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Speaker 1: out there. They're telling us about their victories, they're telling

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Speaker 1: about the Russian casualties, They're telling us about the cities

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Speaker 1: that they've been able to hold. The Russians don't want

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Speaker 1: to tout their military successes because they don't particularly want

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Speaker 1: their public to understand just how aggressive and how violent

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Speaker 1: this entire attack has been. But the Russians have a

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Speaker 1: lot more tactics that they can employ that they have

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Speaker 1: employed in past wars. They have a lot more firepower,

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Speaker 1: just a lot more cards to play here, and an

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Speaker 1: overwhelming military dominance. So, yes, their planning was poor. I

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Speaker 1: was reading this morning they're having all these communications issues.

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Speaker 1: There's reports that, yeah, logistics, they don't have their you know,

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Speaker 1: the Russian vehicles stranded on the side of the road,

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Speaker 1: troops unable to communicate with each other, which is like

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Speaker 1: the very basics of warfare. They haven't been able to

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Speaker 1: establish to this point, air superiority and other strategic tactical error. However,

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Speaker 1: let's not dilute ourselves into thinking that the Ukrainians are

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Speaker 1: ultimately in a position to win this thing, because I

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Speaker 1: think that you know, long forty mile long long convoy

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Speaker 1: sitting outside of the city of Kiev tells you that

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Speaker 1: the worst could very much be yet to come. And

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Speaker 1: Kiev is also being sort of besiege from multiple directions.

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Speaker 1: I was just reading this morning that in Mary Paul,

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Speaker 1: they also have losing sort of basic utilities and starting

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Speaker 1: to be in a siege situation there as well. And

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Speaker 1: the last I always want to say in these battle updates,

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Speaker 1: this is the part that it's hardest to get accurate

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Speaker 1: information about, especially because as I just said, there's sort

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Speaker 1: of a propaganda disparity between the Ukrainians and the Russians.

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Speaker 1: So take all of these updates with a grain of salt,

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Speaker 1: but we try to bring you the information that is

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Speaker 1: the most you know, the most confirmed, the most definitive.

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Speaker 1: And I would caution all of you too when you're

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Speaker 1: surfing social media and seeing these little like heroic anecdotes

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Speaker 1: and those sorts of things, those are probably the things

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Speaker 1: you should be most skeptical about. But the bombing and Kharkiv,

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Speaker 1: there's multiple videos of this massive explosion, right, you know,

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Speaker 1: blowing up this government building in the middle of Kharkiv,

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Speaker 1: and there are reports of additional civilian casualties there. So

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Speaker 1: it does seem like we're in a position now with

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Speaker 1: the diplomacy having initially failed that and Russia having suffered

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Speaker 1: setbacks and disappointments over the first few days of the campaign,

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Speaker 1: that they may be escalating tactics in a way that

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Speaker 1: could be devastating to civilians. That's right. So there's a

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Speaker 1: guy named Michael Kaufman. He's the director of Russia Studies

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Speaker 1: of the Center for Naval Analysis. He's been very helpful

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Speaker 1: in these times, a great follow on Twitter. If you're

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Speaker 1: on that platform, let's put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 1: He put out a very very long thread yesterday where

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Speaker 1: this is the one that we pulled for all of you. Quote.

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Speaker 1: The truth is large parts of the Russian military have

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Speaker 1: yet to enter this war, with many of the capabilities

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Speaker 1: still unused. Not to take away from the Ukrainian great

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Speaker 1: military performance and resilience, but I see a lot of

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Speaker 1: early judgments and conclusions that need moderation. And another prediction Crystal,

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Speaker 1: which would actually fit with the Russian tactics in the

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Speaker 1: Syrian Civil War is this, which is that convoy is

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Speaker 1: a major threat. Now we all know that is happening,

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Speaker 1: and obviously we've seen the use of these missiles and

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Speaker 1: more in order to level buildings, and the threat is

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Speaker 1: very much there. So what many people believe, and this

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Speaker 1: fits with Russian tactics, is that they're going to around

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Speaker 1: the city or are going to have that convoy establish

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Speaker 1: a quote unquote humanitatorian corridor and be like, you all

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Speaker 1: have to leave. If you don't leave, you will be

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Speaker 1: declared in an enemy combatant and you'll be leveled and killed.

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Speaker 1: And that is something that I believe that they used

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Speaker 1: in the chech And Civil War. I know for a

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Speaker 1: fact they did in the Syrian Civil War. It would

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Speaker 1: make a lot of military sense. It's basically a threat

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Speaker 1: to surrender or die. It's a similar one that you know,

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Speaker 1: even the US military done that before in Fallujah. So

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Speaker 1: these are things a long standing way of saying, Look,

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Speaker 1: if you're a civilian and you don't you know, if

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Speaker 1: you don't want to stand tall, that's fine. Here's your corridor.

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Speaker 1: You will be safe here. Your safety is guaranteed. Otherwise

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Speaker 1: it's weapons free inside of this inside of this area. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: I mean, given the heroic stand look, I mean, I'm

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Speaker 1: not saying I personally probably would. I don't know what

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Speaker 1: I would do in a similar situation. But a lot

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Speaker 1: of these Ukrainians are going to be making and standing tall.

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Speaker 1: That's what the Ukrainian government is also telling them to do.

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Speaker 1: That is probably working to see the bloodiest part of

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Speaker 1: this war. Don't forgets put up a heroic resistance against

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Speaker 1: the Nazis too, you know, so did a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: the Belgians in World War One. I mean, but we

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Speaker 1: know how ultimately the military campaign shakes out. So I

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Speaker 1: hate to say it, but you know, all indications are

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Speaker 1: the tremendous loss of life is on the horizon. Certainly

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Speaker 1: could be headed in that direction. Let's also update you

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Speaker 1: on yesterday while we were doing the show, there were

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Speaker 1: talks between a Russian and a Ukrainian delegation. I think

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Speaker 1: somewhat unsurprisingly, those talks not ultimately about to anything. Let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and put the CBS News tairsheet we have

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Speaker 1: here up on the screen. Give us a little bit

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Speaker 1: of detail about what Ukraine's sort of what their demands were.

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Speaker 1: Ukraine seeking an immediate ceasefire, fair enough, and Russian withdrawal

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Speaker 1: also fair enough. In first direct talks during Putin's ongoing invasion.

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Speaker 1: Even while that meeting was taking place, there were reports

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Speaker 1: of you know, continued fighting and continued Russian shelling. We

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Speaker 1: know that Zelensky went into this meeting, he was not

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Speaker 1: personally their present, but the delegations meeting saying we're not

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Speaker 1: expecting much here because it is even though it was

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Speaker 1: seen as progress that the Russians were willing to meet

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Speaker 1: without any preconditions, and that agreement coming after a phone

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Speaker 1: call with Jijinping, which is also interesting, there still seemed

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Speaker 1: to be, you know, a belligerence on the part of

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Speaker 1: the Russians and an unwillingness to give in any way,

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Speaker 1: and certainly their calls, the Ukrainian calls for immediate ceasefire

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Speaker 1: and immediate withdrawal not heeded. Here they met for about

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Speaker 1: three hours and then they returned to their respective areas. Now,

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Speaker 1: I did see a report this morning that they are

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Speaker 1: planning to have further diplomatic talks over the next couple

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Speaker 1: of days, but I couldn't find any additional details. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they've set time, place details for those meetings,

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Speaker 1: so we will see. In addition to those diplomatic efforts,

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Speaker 1: we also saw Putin and mcron also spoke for about

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Speaker 1: ninety minutes. Let's go ahead and put this tweet up

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Speaker 1: on the screen, So this details some of the Russian

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Speaker 1: demands here. They want recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea,

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Speaker 1: so for the Ukrainians to basically give up on Crimea.

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Speaker 1: They want demilitarization and denazification of the Ukrainian state. So

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Speaker 1: that could mean a whole lot of things, but effectively

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Speaker 1: means Ukrainians can't have any arms or weapons, which, after

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Speaker 1: you've just been invaded by your next door neighbor, I

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Speaker 1: think they're not going to take too kindly too. And

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Speaker 1: this denazification thing, you know, Look, we've talked to you

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Speaker 1: about the azav Battalion. I'm not saying there's no Nazis

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine. Every country has some bad people, some fringe

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Speaker 1: radical nutjobs in their midst. But the Russians have used

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Speaker 1: denotification to basically mean anybody body that they don't like,

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Speaker 1: who may be more aligned with the West, who they

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Speaker 1: don't want in there, including the Jewish president Zelenski. So

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Speaker 1: that also seems to be a non starter. Ensuring neutral status,

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Speaker 1: I mean, that was something that the Ukrainians and Max

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Speaker 1: points is sound here said they were open to neutrality,

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Speaker 1: but hard to see how they agree to the rest

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Speaker 1: after all that has happened. That was the piece that

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Speaker 1: Russia could have gotten on the way in. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think if Russia had played their cards right, they

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Speaker 1: could have gotten an agreement that Okay, fine, truly Ukraine

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Speaker 1: is never going to be part of NATO. Okay, fine,

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Speaker 1: we'll do a deal between you know, Russia and the

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Speaker 1: EU and Ukraine that enshrines a neutral status. I think

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Speaker 1: those things were achievable and on the table at the beginning.

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Speaker 1: Now it's hard to see how that is ever going

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Speaker 1: to be possible. And to that end, let's go and

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Speaker 1: put this next piece up on the screen. Ukraine and

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Speaker 1: I personally think this was a foolish move. It's another

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Speaker 1: sort of like poking the bear kind of a move.

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Speaker 1: Ukraine is officially seeking to join the EU. There were

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Speaker 1: pictures of that. I think he's holding his like EU

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Speaker 1: application there in that picture. EU's chief executive Ursulaine Vonderline

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Speaker 1: told your own new use indeed over time quote, they

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Speaker 1: belong to us, they are one of us, and we

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Speaker 1: want them in. So if you're the Russians, you know,

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Speaker 1: looking for a neutral Ukraine, this just seems like again

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Speaker 1: another escalation that your adversary is going to view this

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Speaker 1: and they are going to consider their own escalatory tactics

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Speaker 1: in response. So I don't see what I don't see

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Speaker 1: what end is served other than to further inflame the situation.

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Speaker 1: Look I'm not We're not in the EU, but if

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Speaker 1: I were, the EU, do not do this. This would

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Speaker 1: be a disaster in an escalatory move. It also would

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Speaker 1: entitle them to significant types of defense, which would make

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Speaker 1: you a completely unneutral body. And I'll talk about this

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Speaker 1: in my monologue. But many EU country a huge portion

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Speaker 1: of the EU is in NATO, so it's not like

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Speaker 1: we don't also have a military interest in the outcome here.

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Speaker 1: I just want to underscore this, and I've continued to

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Speaker 1: make this point why Putin's move is so colossally foolish. Ukraine, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they're going to give up their military, their militarization and

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Speaker 1: arms after you invaded their country. Okay, good luck, you

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Speaker 1: want neutrality. Now they're applying for the EU status. Finland,

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Speaker 1: their neighbor, had an emergency meeting last night in order

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Speaker 1: to vote in order to join NATO, and NATO is

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Speaker 1: now talking of says that they could admit them within

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours. By the way, I would be completely

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Speaker 1: against that. We don't need any more NATO countries against

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Speaker 1: the Russian border. But that's not stopping Finland from trying.

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Speaker 1: And now you are seeing the same thing Romania, Poland, elsewhere.

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Speaker 1: I think British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in Poland today.

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Speaker 1: I mean the complete solidification along the Russian border of

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Speaker 1: former Soviet states who are looking at this and freaking out,

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Speaker 1: seeking both arms and now NATO membership or EU membership,

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Speaker 1: or Sweden shipping anti tank missiles to this conflict. Norway

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Speaker 1: is sending deb lethal aid to Ukraine. Even crazier is

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Speaker 1: this Switzerland, which was neutral against the Nazis, is now

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Speaker 1: cutting off Russia from its financial system. Yeah, Switzerland which

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Speaker 1: has long been the haven, financial haven for Russian oligarchs

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Speaker 1: and Monaco as at another place like playground of the

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Speaker 1: oligarchs and where they have like to park their ass.

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Speaker 1: It takes skill to get the Swiss to not be neutral. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I mean I have no this is they have no

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Speaker 1: idea what they have awoken in Europe. And when you

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Speaker 1: have the entire continent now up against you, that's an

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Speaker 1: incredibly dangerous situation. We'll talk about this too in nuclear war.

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Speaker 1: But I mean the ramifications of escalation on this are stunning,

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Speaker 1: and overnight we are seeing the complete financial cancellation. And

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Speaker 1: I don't mean any like you know, like any cult,

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Speaker 1: but basically even financially canceled from the entire global financial system.

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Speaker 1: We learned yesterday that Shell is exiting. It's something majority

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Speaker 1: I think it's a minority stake in one of the

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Speaker 1: major gas companies in Russia. We already brought you the

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Speaker 1: news that BP was exiting. It's Rosnef's steak there, which

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Speaker 1: is something like twenty percent, and they're resigning from the board.

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Speaker 1: They are being cut off by Disney apparent even Disney's

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Speaker 1: not going to release films over there. I mean, you

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Speaker 1: are seeing a complete bifurcation. It's almost like it's the

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Speaker 1: Iron Curtain is like halfway down at this point. And

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Speaker 1: they thought that they had sort of sanction proofed their

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Speaker 1: economy because they saw what we had done with regard

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Speaker 1: to Iran. They watched some of the tactics that we

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Speaker 1: had used around the world, and they understood in a

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Speaker 1: way that I don't think that we have totally processed

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Speaker 1: the risks that come with globalization. This sort of financial

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Speaker 1: leverage you hand to all of your trading partners when

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Speaker 1: you depend on them for this or that good or

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Speaker 1: trading relationship. And so what their strategy was is to

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Speaker 1: number one, payt have very low levels of debt and

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Speaker 1: number two to store up these foreign reserve currencies, and

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Speaker 1: so so when we were going to cut them off

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Speaker 1: of SWIFT, they sort of felt like, oh, we can

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Speaker 1: handle that. And China has their own sort of burgeoning

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Speaker 1: competitor to SWIFT that isn't used extensively but still provides

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Speaker 1: some kind of an alternative. But when we said, oh,

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Speaker 1: and by the way, we're going to freeze your foreign

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Speaker 1: reserves and sanction your central bank, that's when things got

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Speaker 1: really real. Yeah. I don't think they ever expected. I don't. Yes,

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Speaker 1: and I want to say, I mean these types of this,

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Speaker 1: this is economic warfare. I mean, we have said we

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Speaker 1: are not going to fight you with boots on the ground.

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Speaker 1: We're not putting troops into Ukraine. We've been very clear

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Speaker 1: about that. We're going to bring you. Yeah, thank God

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Speaker 1: for that. We're going to bring you. The Biden administration

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Speaker 1: standing very strong against a no fly zone because of

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Speaker 1: the military engagement and the sparking of World War three

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Speaker 1: that that could lead to. But we are engaged in

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Speaker 1: a wholesale economic war, which is going to be devastating

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Speaker 1: not just for Putin and asoligarchs, but for the entire

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Speaker 1: Russian population. And you know, I think that first of all,

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Speaker 1: we have to question the morality of that and the suffering.

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Speaker 1: There will be loss of life because of those, you know,

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Speaker 1: a blunt use of economic warfare against the entire population.

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Speaker 1: We're already seeing the very early signs of what, you know,

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Speaker 1: just the disruptions of daily life. We showed you yesterday

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Speaker 1: the bank runs. There's also a video of suddenly the

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Speaker 1: I think Apple pay and Google pay wouldn't work on

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Speaker 1: the metrics on the true so there's you know, huge

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Speaker 1: lines at the subway, says, I mean, this is just

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Speaker 1: the beginning, right, this is just the beginning signs of

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Speaker 1: what this is ultimately going to entail for the Russian population.

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Speaker 1: We also have to say, you know, these sanctions oftentimes

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Speaker 1: they're more of a sort of political show than an

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Speaker 1: actual strategic tool that yields results. The Russians are already

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Speaker 1: saying basically like we don't care, do your worst life.

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Speaker 1: We'll see. Yeah, and we've seen, we've seen other regimes

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Speaker 1: where not only does it not bring them down, it

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Speaker 1: hardens their population against us. It gives their authoritarian leaders

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Speaker 1: the ability to say, your problems aren't with us, your

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Speaker 1: problems are with the US and these other Western countries

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Speaker 1: that are making your life miserable. So there's a lot

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Speaker 1: to be said about that. There were two other little

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Speaker 1: updates I wanted to give you guys. Number one, yesterday

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Speaker 1: I said the EU was supplying fighter jets. It does

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Speaker 1: not look like that worked out. The countries that were

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Speaker 1: supposed to be setting the fighter jets were like none. A.

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Speaker 1: Romania were like, that's not no, we're not We're not

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Speaker 1: doing that. So that didn't come We're selfish interest Apparently

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Speaker 1: Crystal they were like, look, we're in we're on the

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Speaker 1: border to exactly. And then the other thing, just in

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Speaker 1: terms of tracking the Russia China relationship, is in Beijing. Yesterday,

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Speaker 1: the Foreign Ministry spokesman said at a regular press briefing

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Speaker 1: that Russia and China are strategic partners, but not allies.

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Speaker 1: I also said, of course China would not interfere in

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Speaker 1: the Ukraine crisis. But there were some reading into that

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Speaker 1: language of strategic partners versus allies, especially given that very

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Speaker 1: recently they were, you know, signing statements about the limitless

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Speaker 1: nature of their partnership. So this seems to be China

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Speaker 1: kind of taken a little bit of a step back

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Speaker 1: to see how this all plays out. Yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: China basically does not want to be geopolitically isolated in

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Speaker 1: the same way that Russia now finds itself completely, you know,

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Speaker 1: cut off from the global financial system. And if they

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Speaker 1: float them in the same way, they're not going to

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Speaker 1: be received as kindly. You know. It's interesting in the

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Speaker 1: Iranian context, there were a lot of our US allies

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Speaker 1: who will continued to buy stuff from Iran even when

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Speaker 1: they were sanctioned. South Korea, China, you know, many other countries.

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Speaker 1: This is so universally despised and basically being cut off.

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Speaker 1: You see the Japanese siding with us, you see many

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Speaker 1: of the Asian Western allies siding with us that if

428
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 1: China were to you know, wholesale back the Russian economy,

429
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: they would have consequences in Asia, not just inside of

430
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 1: you know, in terms of their relations with the West. So, yeah,

431
00:23:56,520 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 1: they've miscalculated significantly and are trying to push themselves back diplomatically.

432
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 1: I think the main thing we can point to is

433
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:07,479
Speaker 1: that literally the entire world seems unified against Russia. That

434
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,359
Speaker 1: can be a good thing. It can also lead to

435
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 1: a significant amount of tension and it could back putin

436
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 1: into a corner, which we'll get to in our nuclear

437
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,679
Speaker 1: war segment. Yes, okay, indeed, let's go ahead and move

438
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 1: on to the idiotic calls in the United States and

439
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 1: in the media for World War three, and actually, unfortunately

440
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,680
Speaker 1: not just in the United States. We've been very praiseworthy

441
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 1: of President Zelensky, but on this one we have to

442
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,400
Speaker 1: depart significantly. Let's put this up there on the screen. Yesterday,

443
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 1: President Zelenski issued a statement to US media and this

444
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 1: was very calculated to Axios, which is a Washington based outlet,

445
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 1: where he pushed the president on a no fly zone.

446
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 1: So the Zelenski said in a statement that he wants

447
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 1: a no fly zone over quote significant parts of the country.

448
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 1: Says that Ukraine can quote beat the aggressors if the

449
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 1: Western allies quote do their part. Now here's what he says.

450
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 1: The sanctions are heading in the right direction. In addition

451
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 1: to disconnecting the Rush Central Bank and providing more stingers

452
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,199
Speaker 1: and anti tank weapons, we need the West to impose

453
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 1: a no fly zone over significant parts of Ukraine. Ukraine

454
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: beat the aggressor. We are proving this to the world. Look,

455
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: as we said in our first block, there is no

456
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 1: discounting the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian military. That being said,

457
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: you are asking us to declare war on Russia and

458
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 1: shoot planes out of the sky, or and if it's

459
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:28,360
Speaker 1: not US, Germany is also in NATO. Any NATO country

460
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: which engages Russian military in a direct action like this,

461
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 1: that's war. And if it's war, it's probably going to

462
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: go nuclear. So it's just simply completely off the table.

463
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: And unfortunately, this is again it was where the sympathy

464
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 1: towards Ukraine is hijacking the brains of people who are

465
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 1: in media trusted figures. Let's put this up there on

466
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 1: the screen, so Richard Engel, you know, the top NBC

467
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: news foreign analyst says this quote perhaps the biggest risk calculation,

468
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: moral dilemma the war so far. A massive Russian convoy

469
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 1: is about thirty miles from Kiev. The US NATO could

470
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 1: likely destroy it, but that would be direct involvement against

471
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 1: Russia and risk everything. Does the West watch in silence

472
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 1: as it rolls? How dare you pointing folks power? Dare

473
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 1: you phrase it that way? That's completely outrageous And I

474
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 1: never thought you would hear me giving praise to the

475
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,199
Speaker 1: pod Save America guys. But Tommy Veeder, who was I

476
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 1: believe he works in the Obama administration in the NSC,

477
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 1: He replies. The way you tweet about whether the US

478
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 1: and NATO should engage in a full on war against

479
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: a nuclear arms superpower is shockingly glib. It's not as

480
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 1: simple as watch in silence as it rolls or not.

481
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 1: The stakes are risking nuclear annihilation. Yes, that's correct. Look,

482
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,159
Speaker 1: it's sad watching this convoy. It breaks the heart. We

483
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 1: watched it in Syria. We watched half a million people die.

484
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 1: Guess what the situation was complicated. It's not like we

485
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,919
Speaker 1: had great allies to work with who were on the

486
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 1: ground Iraq. The same thing, because if we were a

487
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 1: perpetrator of some of that violence, I mean, we have

488
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 1: seen these things happen. It is deeply sad. Should we

489
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: try to do something about it? Yes? Within reason. Sanctions

490
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 1: are already you know, quite a significant step in the

491
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 1: right direction. But they never asked the question of okay, then,

492
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: what I mean to see? The cavalier nature in which

493
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: he advocates for a nuclear exchange between the United States

494
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 1: and Russia again these two countries hold ninety percent of

495
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,439
Speaker 1: the nukes on planet Earth. Is completely bonkers. It's like,

496
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 1: you know, you could turn this on him and say,

497
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: you know, what is the biggest moral dilemma of cavalierly

498
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 1: launching yourself into World War three. Also, I do want

499
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 1: to say this, there was a terrifying development overnight. We

500
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: got the first US elected official, Senator Roger Wicker, to

501
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 1: advocate explicitly for a no fly zone. And yeah, but

502
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 1: that's important, right that that shows you that you have

503
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 1: now sitting United States Senator Roger Wicker declaring explicitly he

504
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 1: seeks a war with the Russian government, and you watch

505
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 1: all of this unfold. Luckily, public opinion is nighted against it.

506
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 1: We'll get to that specifically, but this is still incredibly dangerous.

507
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 1: You know, this level of hubris can can lead you

508
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 1: right into not just a shooting war, a nuclear war. Well,

509
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 1: and there's a few things I want to say about this.

510
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 1: First of all, you know, we have praised the actions

511
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 1: of President Zelenski, both in terms of trying to avert

512
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,640
Speaker 1: doing everything he could within his power to avert this conflict,

513
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 1: and in terms of just his personal bravery staying in

514
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 1: Kiev and not fleeing when he had the chance to,

515
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 1: even though he knows that Russian, one of the Russians,

516
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: goals to assassinate him and remove him as head of state. However,

517
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: the minute I saw the like overwhelming liberal thirst around

518
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 1: the sky, I started to get very uncomfortable, because then

519
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: what happens. I mean, we've seen this play out, you know,

520
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 1: with Andrew Cuomo. We've seen it play out with any

521
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 1: number of sort of political celebs who liberals become obsessed

522
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 1: with and they elevate to this platform, and then what

523
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 1: happens He advocates for something here that would be a disaster.

524
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 1: But because you've got a bunch of like thirsty liberals

525
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 1: who are now in love with this guy, it has

526
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 1: a different standing then it might have if you were

527
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: just evaluating the situation from a neutral, non thirsty perspective.

528
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: So that is one thing that's the sort of risk

529
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: on one side. The risk on the other side that

530
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 1: we'll talk about more when we get to the public pulling.

531
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: So far is yes, the public is against military action

532
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 1: in Ukraine. However, since this conflict has started, the numbers

533
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 1: have moved significantly, and in particular, the Republican base has

534
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: become far more hawkish. So in the build up the

535
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: Republican Party we covered this was very They're kind of

536
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 1: all over the place. I mean, there were people, there

537
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: were politicians across the spectrum. Some of them are saying,

538
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 1: why do we even care about this at all? And

539
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 1: sort of taking almost taking Russia side in this, you know,

540
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 1: Trump saying like Putin's a genius and all this stuff,

541
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: tak careers, monologues. All that was one faction. You had

542
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 1: people who were on the more hawk distraction. You had

543
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 1: people who were basically like, we agree with what Biden

544
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 1: is doing. Well. Now, the most recent polling has eighty

545
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: percent of Republicans saying that Biden is quote not doing enough. Okay,

546
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 1: now that's very vague, all right, that doesn't say specifically,

547
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: so what does that mean? And the danger here is

548
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: that you end up with a situation We've seen bipartisan

549
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 1: pro war consensus many times in the past where there

550
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 1: are both liberal politicians the Eric Swalwells and the Adam

551
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 1: Shifts of the world, and Republican politicians the Roger Wickers

552
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 1: and the Adam Kinzingers of the world, who find it

553
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: in their political benefit to push hawkish escalatory behavior, including

554
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 1: insanity like no fly zones. So that's why there is

555
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 1: a real danger here. I also saw, you know, we've

556
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 1: been seeing some of the blue check Twitter mobs saying like, ah,

557
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: nuclear war, They're not serious. That's just a Bluff's like

558
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 1: up clushing our pearls about nuclear war. No, take it very,

559
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 1: very very seriously. Even if you consider it like a

560
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 1: point one percent chance. That is too freaking high of

561
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 1: a chance when you're talking about nuclear war. I also

562
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: saw an intelligence leak yesterday that was in that same

563
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 1: direction of you know, American intelligence agencies assess that Putin

564
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: has no intention of actually sparking a nuclear war. Okay,

565
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 1: maybe right now, right? I mean, yeah, but guess what, y'all,

566
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:31,239
Speaker 1: I still don't trust you. I don't care if you've

567
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: got a few things right about this conflict. I still

568
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 1: do not trust you. And that bears all the hallmarks

569
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 1: of a deep state trying to leak against Biden and

570
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: push him into actions that he has so far nobly

571
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 1: resisted taking. And here's another indication which I am so

572
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 1: freaked out about, so General former General Philip Breedlove, who

573
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 1: was the US commander of US forces in Europe, and

574
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 1: the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO not that long ago,

575
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 1: had to sit down with Foreign Policy magazine and he

576
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 1: was asked explicitly, would you impose a no fly zone

577
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 1: over Ukraine? He said, yes, he acknowledges it is an

578
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 1: act of war. Nevertheless, he is a proponent of it.

579
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen. So he

580
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 1: goes in and acknowledges this is an act of war

581
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 1: against Russia. So the interviewer asked, in spite of all

582
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 1: of that, you said you would actually support the idea

583
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 1: of a no fly zone. Here's what the general says.

584
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 1: Are we going to sit and watch while a world

585
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 1: power invades and destroys and subjugates a sovereign nation? Are

586
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 1: we just going to watch? A friendly recently said this

587
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 1: is like Biblical times. The whole coliseum is watching Lions

588
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: and Christians. They're pulling for the Christians, but they just watch.

589
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 1: So the question is the West going to tolerate Russia

590
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 1: doing this to Ukraine? Quote? What if the Russians do

591
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 1: what they did in eastern Syria and they drop barrel

592
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: bombs and make rubble of cities and terrorized citizens and

593
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 1: force them on the road and make them refugees across Europe.

594
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 1: Where is the line that Russia crosses is in humanity

595
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 1: such that the rest of the world reacts. Well, here's

596
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: the question. Is all of that which would be a

597
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 1: horrific outcome and would be a tragedy, just as it

598
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 1: was in Syria, would it be worth a nuclear exchange

599
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 1: between the United States and Russia. This is the insanity

600
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 1: and the hubris within these people. I can't believe this

601
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: man was once responsible for confronting the quote unquote Russian

602
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 1: threat while he was the supreme Allied commander of NATO forces.

603
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 1: And if you think he does not have contacts and

604
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: is not representing a significant chunk of the military establishment,

605
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: who is sitting in I think it's Brussels or wherever

606
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 1: it is right now in terms of the US command,

607
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 1: You're crazy. This is a real point of view. Luckily,

608
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 1: in this country, our forces are subject are subject to

609
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 1: the orders of civilian control and the President remain sane

610
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 1: and Jensaki reiterated this at the White House podium yesterday.

611
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen. Cousin Zelensky is urging President Biden

612
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: and NATO to impose this no fly zone. You've said

613
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 1: that this would significantly escalate the situation. So just to

614
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 1: be clear, is this a no go for right now

615
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 1: or is this completely off the table something that you

616
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 1: would not consider. Well, the President has been very clear

617
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: that he is not intending to send US troops to

618
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 1: fight a war with Russia, and I think what's important

619
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,919
Speaker 1: to note here is that is essentially what this would

620
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 1: be a step toward, because a no fly zone would

621
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 1: require implementation, it would require deploying US military to enforce,

622
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 1: which would be a direct conflict, potentially a direct conflict,

623
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 1: and potentially a war with Russia, which is something we

624
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 1: are not planning to be a part of. Thank you.

625
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 1: You know, Biden's brain and all of that. May he

626
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: may be old, but he's actually this is the one

627
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: area where his age may help. He's so old he remembers,

628
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 1: you know, the Cuban missile crisis and the literal Cold

629
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 1: War when Brezhnev was the premier and a war seemed possible.

630
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 1: So maybe in that respect, it's a good thing to

631
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 1: have somebody who at least remembers the consequences of this.

632
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: You know, we are about to get to a warmonger

633
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: in our own right, who once promised a no fly

634
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,240
Speaker 1: zone over Syria and would have led to simmerl Or Yes, indeed,

635
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,399
Speaker 1: and I actually think it's worth reading because Breed love

636
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 1: he what's remarkable about his comments is he knows exactly

637
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: know what it means. Like you might imagine Kinziger or

638
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 1: Wicker or some of these other people which like mouthing

639
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 1: off that they don't really understand the implications. But I

640
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 1: want to reach you because he lays it out more

641
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 1: clearly than almost anyone else I've said. He says, I'm

642
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:31,839
Speaker 1: a proponent of it, but let me tell you why

643
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 1: it probably won't happen. It's an act of war. There

644
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 1: are a lot of people who don't understand no fly zones.

645
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: You don't just say that's a no fly zone. You

646
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 1: have to enforce the no fly zone, which means you

647
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 1: have to be willing to use force against those who

648
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 1: break the no fly zone. The second thing which nobody

649
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 1: understands is if you put a no fly zone in

650
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 1: the eastern part of Ukraine, for instance, and we're going

651
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,280
Speaker 1: to fly Coalition or NATO aircraft into that no fly zone,

652
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 1: then we have to take out all the weapons that

653
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 1: can fire into our no fly zone and cause harm

654
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 1: to our aircraft. So you have to go on the

655
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:07,359
Speaker 1: offensive to take out the weapons that could harm your aircraft.

656
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 1: So that means bombing enemy radars and missile systems on

657
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 1: the other side of the border. And you know what

658
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 1: that means, right, That is tantamount to war. So he

659
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 1: understands all of this, including that piece which I hadn't

660
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 1: even thought of. I did not even know that was

661
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 1: part of it. Yes, he gets all of this even

662
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 1: more clearly this. He probably wrote the plans right, and

663
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 1: he's still like, yeah, I think we should do it.

664
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 1: Oh my god, what this is completely Bloggers. There was

665
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 1: another thing that I wanted to show you this morning.

666
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 1: I'll tell you about this morning that just shows you

667
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 1: the like sociopathy of some of these people. There's actually

668
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: a piece in the hoven And Post right now titled

669
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 1: could a small nuclear war reverse Global War? Yeah? I

670
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:51,240
Speaker 1: think that one's from twenty eleven, to be fair, Okay,

671
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 1: it's still scary. Yes, it's like, well, COVID helped lower

672
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 1: carbon emissions? Was that a good thing? Okay? I mean

673
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 1: you can you could go. I didn't ask that. I

674
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 1: think I don't know if this is a myth or not,

675
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 1: But they say that Genghis Khan killed so many people

676
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 1: that you can actually see the carbon levels drop in

677
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 1: the ice. I mean, is that a good way to

678
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: deal with it? No, it's not, okay, I mean complete

679
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 1: total craziness about what's happening. Why don't we get to

680
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: get some more craziness? Shall we some more craziness? Okay?

681
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 1: This is an amazing collaboration between the folks over at

682
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 1: MSNBC and exactly who we need to hear from at

683
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:37,800
Speaker 1: this time, one Hillary Rodham Clinton. We've put together a

684
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:39,879
Speaker 1: little bit of her commentary here for you to get

685
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:43,280
Speaker 1: a taste. Part of it is her, you know, banging

686
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 1: the druma about how we have to call out anyone

687
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: who has like a wrong think and is unpatriotic on

688
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 1: their views on Ukraine and Russia. I'm sure we would

689
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 1: easily fall into that category, Sager, and then also just

690
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: sort of casually calling for cyber warfare, which also can

691
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 1: be considered an activore. But say, to listen to what

692
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 1: she has to say, we have to also make sure

693
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 1: that within our own country we are calling out those

694
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 1: people who are giving aid and comfort to Vladimir Putin,

695
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 1: who are talking about what a geniusy is, what a

696
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 1: smart move it is, who are unfortunately being broadcast by

697
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 1: Russian media not only inside Russia but in Europe to

698
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: demonstrate the division within our own country. I think that,

699
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: you know, people who love freedom, people who understand that,

700
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 1: you know, our way of life depends upon supporting those

701
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 1: who believe in freedom as well, could be engaged in

702
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 1: cyber support for those in the streets in Russia. We

703
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 1: did some of that during the Arab Spring when I

704
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 1: was Secretary of State. I think we could be also

705
00:38:55,000 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 1: attacking a lot of the government institutions and again the

706
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 1: oligarchs and their you know, their way of life through

707
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 1: cyber attacks, and it will be difficult to get actual

708
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 1: physical support, but I think we should be looking at that.

709
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: I mean, oh my god, I mean, she's advocating for

710
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 1: a cyber attack by the United States government on the

711
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 1: Russian government, an explicit acknowledged one. And this was something

712
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 1: which I think we did cover at the time, but

713
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,959
Speaker 1: which the deep State offered President Biden as a quote

714
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 1: unquote response. Look, I actually sat through some classes in

715
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 1: my program at Georgetown on cyber This was some of

716
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 1: the early days of just like thinking about it. And

717
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 1: there was a lot of talk there when and how

718
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: exactly do these cyber attacks constitute an active war? And

719
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 1: it's a very gray area and a lot of it.

720
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 1: It's the Ivy beholder. For example, I think US doctrine

721
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 1: is if you take down a critical security grid like

722
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 1: the energy grid, or if you take down nuclear weapons

723
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 1: system launching or something like that, that enough is considered

724
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 1: an active war to launch kinetic force. What does the

725
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 1: Russian doctrine say? I bet I haven't read it, but

726
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:07,320
Speaker 1: I'm relatively certain that an attack on a Russian government institution,

727
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 1: especially one against the Russian military, would be considered an

728
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:13,439
Speaker 1: act of war and by them. And that's what she's

729
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 1: advocating for. And do you think because she tries to

730
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,359
Speaker 1: make this distinction of like we're going to push good

731
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 1: citizens who have the capabilities to do this, do you

732
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 1: think that the Russian government would distinguish between like civilians

733
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:26,240
Speaker 1: encouraged by the US, which we don't. We don't distinguish

734
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: when we have Russian mobs who steal our, you know,

735
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 1: IP or whatever. Yeah, I mean, just look at the

736
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 1: way that you know, the language and Russia gate about

737
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 1: these actors that were affiliated with the Russian government or

738
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 1: you know, connections to the Russian government, et cetera. So

739
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:43,800
Speaker 1: we don't either make that distinction. The other part of this, though, saga,

740
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 1: that's really important is there's now all this pressure on

741
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 1: the tech companies to censor Russian state media, and I

742
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 1: mean and Hillary Clinton obviously making that case here as well,

743
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 1: and some of these tech companies are already taking action.

744
00:40:57,960 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and throw this next piece up on this,

745
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:05,360
Speaker 1: which is you have Twitter. They're adding labels to tweets

746
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 1: that share links to Russian state affiliated media websites, and

747
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 1: they're taking steps to significantly reduce the circulation of this

748
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 1: content on Twitter. Interesting that they don't even say what

749
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: those steps are, just like so par for the course.

750
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 1: Don't know how that works, but anyway, they're trying to

751
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:25,760
Speaker 1: label all of the Russian propaganda from RT and Sputnik

752
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 1: in places like that and also to somehow significantly reduce

753
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 1: the circulation. You have Meta. Let's put this next piece

754
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:35,320
Speaker 1: up on the screen. Meta will just is just straight

755
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: up restricting access to RT and Sputnik on its platforms

756
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 1: across the EU. This seems to be at the behest

757
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 1: of the EU who have taken steps to sort of

758
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 1: through geocoding, to eliminate their population's ability to look at

759
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 1: these websites whatsoever. And Sagar, you made a great point

760
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 1: on Twitter. Let's go ahead and take a look at this,

761
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: which is, you know, in addition to the pipocracy, which

762
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 1: I'll get to in a moment. A friend points out

763
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 1: that the West is cutting itself off from Russian media

764
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 1: precisely when their domestic media is becoming the most bellicose misjudging.

765
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 1: Lacking knowledge of the Russian media mood increases risk of

766
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 1: miscalculation by the West. And you have a piece here

767
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:16,799
Speaker 1: that we're going to talk about in a minute where

768
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:21,760
Speaker 1: Pravda has this, you know, inflammatory rhetoric about nuclear war,

769
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 1: saying box into a corner, surrounded by Western armies and

770
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 1: blockaded with santic sanctions, the little red buttons may seem

771
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 1: the only viable alternative to a humiliating defeat, potentially revealing

772
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 1: some of the thinking within the Kremlin and Putin's inner circle.

773
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 1: It's really valuable to know that stuff, and it would

774
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 1: not be good for us not to have access to

775
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 1: that information. And that's, you know, that's just one piece

776
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 1: of it. The other piece of it is, Okay, how

777
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 1: are you going to draw these lines? So is the

778
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 1: we brought you you know, during the Canadian trucker thing,

779
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 1: we talked to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation? Is that state

780
00:42:54,640 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 1: funded media BBCV, PBS, NPR. I mean, where, so where

781
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 1: is that line? Not to mention our corporate media, they

782
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 1: may technically be removed from government. Jensaki right now is

783
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:11,719
Speaker 1: being like aggressively courted by both CNN and MSNBC and

784
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 1: some of the network. So she goes and gets her primetime,

785
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: you know, takes over for Rachel Maddow at MSNBC, which

786
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 1: could is a real thing that could happen. By the way, guys,

787
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 1: is that you know she was on last night? Is

788
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 1: that state media? Because she's surely going to still be

789
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:29,360
Speaker 1: doing full on propaganda on Behyph of the Biden administration.

790
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 1: Simone Sanders admitted that she was going to continue to

791
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 1: toe the Biden line as a supposedly independent employee of MSNBC.

792
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 1: So you know, the lines that are being drawn here

793
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 1: are extraordinarily arbitrary, right, And look, I have no defense

794
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:45,359
Speaker 1: of Russian media. I think a lot of them look

795
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 1: like clowns. That being said, like, you know, whenever it

796
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 1: comes to the enemy, if this is a quote unquote war,

797
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 1: and I don't want to use that language cavalierly, but

798
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 1: if we are going to continue to escalate tensions, we

799
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,080
Speaker 1: need to know what they are saying. One of the

800
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 1: reasons why that we established the hotline between the US

801
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 1: president and the Soviet premiere was specifically to cut out

802
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:11,280
Speaker 1: as many middlemen as possible and to have direct lines

803
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 1: of communication. So whenever I see that Pravda op ed

804
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:18,360
Speaker 1: written in English, and it was very specifically written in

805
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 1: English in order to convey Russian nuclear deterrence, to make

806
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:23,800
Speaker 1: fun of the West, and to lay out an agenda.

807
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:25,800
Speaker 1: And we're also going to talk about a leaked document

808
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 1: that also appeared in English and Russian state media. These

809
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:33,359
Speaker 1: are very important documents for us to read. I did

810
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,840
Speaker 1: the same thing whenever I was in graduate school. We

811
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 1: used to read Chinese nuclear doctrine. And the reason why

812
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 1: is because they publish in English. Why they want us

813
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 1: to read it. They want us to know what they

814
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: are thinking. And they're like, hey, this is how we

815
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 1: think about nukes. Yeah, we say won't do a first strike,

816
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 1: but you know, in terms of what that actually means,

817
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:53,799
Speaker 1: and I was like, wow, well that's really important for

818
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 1: anybody to understand. This is the same principle. And so

819
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:00,359
Speaker 1: I mean, for example, yesterday I posted that problem thing

820
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,840
Speaker 1: as an example on Instagram of being like, hey, we

821
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 1: need to watch out about nukes and had the link

822
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 1: to that. I mean, do that get downranked? Almost certainly.

823
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 1: I have no way of knowing, but I'm using it

824
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:14,720
Speaker 1: as a piece of commentary. So same thing on Twitter.

825
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 1: I mean, if I'm going to be sharing, hey, here's

826
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:20,399
Speaker 1: what the Russians are thinking right now, why would then

827
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 1: that not be amplified to a lot of people? I

828
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:26,319
Speaker 1: understand the risk. The risk is is that when you

829
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 1: live in a free and open society, yes, you are

830
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 1: going to have malign state actors be able to use

831
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 1: that freedom and openness in order to try and manipulate

832
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 1: your domestic population. You just simply have to have enough faith,

833
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,880
Speaker 1: which I personally do in the ability in order to

834
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:45,879
Speaker 1: discuss things out. So I think it's obviously a complicated

835
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 1: problem about how exactly you treat state media and what

836
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:52,399
Speaker 1: they're allowed to do and more, But on this particular one,

837
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:56,720
Speaker 1: having a total disconnect from how the Russians are thinking.

838
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 1: You know, what I really want to read is an

839
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 1: a kind of a man on the street and interview

840
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 1: or something with people all across Russia and be like,

841
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,360
Speaker 1: how are you feeling about all this? You know what's happening.

842
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 1: The more journalism, the more info that we were to

843
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 1: get there, even the state interviews, Okay, well what are

844
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:13,839
Speaker 1: they saying and what are they not saying? These are

845
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 1: all very important. This is what we used to do

846
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 1: in the Cold War, and yet we're forgetting a lot

847
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 1: of our lessons to try and check on even in

848
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 1: state media apparatus like Russia. We need to know what

849
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 1: they're thinking. We need to know what they're saying in

850
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:28,320
Speaker 1: their own language. And I'll give you one other really

851
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 1: important example, which is when Putin gave that long speech

852
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 1: that laid out before the Ukrainian invasion, before they invaded Ukraine,

853
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 1: where he lays out like basically, you know the sort

854
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 1: of blood soil, like these are this is our people,

855
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: and this is you know, we gifted you this country

856
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 1: and you don't really exist us and then talk to

857
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 1: some about the some of them legitimate security risks, and

858
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 1: gave this whole big picture long essay about their thinking

859
00:46:56,480 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 1: about this whole thing. We used the RT dubbed version

860
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:04,799
Speaker 1: of that, right, And that's actually I mean that's significant

861
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 1: because you want to give you their translation, their version

862
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:11,279
Speaker 1: of the translation, because some of these things can be

863
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:13,840
Speaker 1: you know, translated in different ways and different words have

864
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 1: different contexts, different meaning. So okay, so then if tech

865
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 1: companies censored this, then we can't actually show you the

866
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 1: direct translation from Russian state media of what they're telling

867
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:30,919
Speaker 1: us Putin is saying in this speech. So and that

868
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 1: was that was one of the real turning points in

869
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 1: this whole situation. I mean, that's when both you and

870
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:38,919
Speaker 1: I were like, whoa this is? You know, this goes

871
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 1: way beyond NATO. This isn't just about these immediate security concerns.

872
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 1: This is like big picture ideology and extraordinarily dangerous situation.

873
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 1: So anyway, all of that is a long way of

874
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:54,360
Speaker 1: saying that if you live in a democracy, and you

875
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:57,840
Speaker 1: believe in a democracy, you have to have enough faith

876
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 1: in your people that you think that they can like

877
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:06,840
Speaker 1: see an article from Pravda or Sputnik and not be completely,

878
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 1: you know, instantly brainwashed by it. That you're able to

879
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 1: evaluate information, you're able to understand the credibility of a

880
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:18,360
Speaker 1: potential source and that. Yeah, sometimes it's messy, and sometimes

881
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: people do fall for lies and propaganda, but you know what,

882
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:23,800
Speaker 1: they also fall for lies in propaganda from the Western

883
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 1: media every day too. Yeah, it's really well said. I

884
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 1: think it's so an important point. It's very unpopular to say,

885
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 1: you know at this time right to be like, hey,

886
00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 1: maybe we should pump the brakes. We got to think

887
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 1: about the ramifications. You know, this is part of my

888
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 1: friend use that analogy of cancelation he was getting dunked on.

889
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 1: I think it was actually apt because what it comes

890
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 1: down to is not the principle of saying it's a

891
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 1: culture war, but the cascading effect of like BP is

892
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 1: cut off from Russia. Now Disney's pulling out of Russia.

893
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 1: Now Switzerland is abandoned neutrality, Finland is coming NATO. You're like,

894
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:58,759
Speaker 1: oh my god, I can't even wrap my head around this,

895
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:01,439
Speaker 1: Like where is this going? And now we're like, okay,

896
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 1: we're gonna cut off Russian media. Well okay, I could

897
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:06,560
Speaker 1: see the principle as to why, but how about all

898
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 1: these other considerations. Oh, we're way far past that. Yeah,

899
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:12,640
Speaker 1: And when you have that kind of a psychosis that

900
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:15,319
Speaker 1: begins to take hold of a lot of people. There

901
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 1: are ramifications which can be massive as to our holes

902
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 1: and our lack of understanding. You know, you know, people

903
00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 1: believe and I do too. The communication and understanding is

904
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 1: the key to what ninety five percent of the world's problems,

905
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 1: and anything that puts up barriers between us on these things,

906
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 1: I think is the absolute worst way to go about it. Indeed, Okay,

907
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 1: speaking of that nuclear war, which is something that I

908
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 1: obviously probably the most worried about, yesterday, I said it

909
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 1: was around one percent, maybe higher than one percent, And look,

910
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 1: I think that probably is still true. That being said,

911
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 1: that's really high actually, and this is still very scary. Now.

912
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:56,319
Speaker 1: President Biden was asked about this yesterday at the White

913
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:59,000
Speaker 1: House by a reporter. He's trying to calm people down.

914
00:49:59,080 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 1: Here's what he said, mister President, and Americans be worried

915
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 1: about nuclear war. No, So what happened is he says no,

916
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,879
Speaker 1: doesn't really address it. More so than that, Jensaki says

917
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 1: also from the podium, we are trying to de escalate.

918
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:18,320
Speaker 1: We seek no flies. No, there is no no fly zone.

919
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 1: We are not engaging with Russia. They say that US

920
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:26,240
Speaker 1: nuclear posture has not changed. Look, really, what it is

921
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,720
Speaker 1: is that we need to not just look at our country,

922
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 1: but theirs and how they are thinking about nuclear weapons.

923
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:34,680
Speaker 1: You alluded to this in the last block, but I

924
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:36,359
Speaker 1: think this is really important. Let's go ahead and put

925
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. And a friend of

926
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:40,480
Speaker 1: mine flagged this for me. So this is from Pravda

927
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 1: and it was written in English. Now, the reason why

928
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:46,800
Speaker 1: it's very important is that this is a perfect view

929
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 1: into kind of the most hawkish view within the Kremlin.

930
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 1: And here's what he says in terms of the red button.

931
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:57,120
Speaker 1: And also it was very key to me. They highlighted

932
00:50:57,120 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 1: this passage crystal. They wanted this to be their highlight.

933
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,319
Speaker 1: There was a there was a specific decision in order

934
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:09,200
Speaker 1: to highlight this specific idea. They answered that. They asked

935
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 1: this question, is mister Putin putting his nuclear forces on

936
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 1: high alert a distraction? Is he bluffing? Here's what this

937
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 1: columnist writes in Pravda. Unlike his predecessor, mister Putin is

938
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:23,279
Speaker 1: unlikely to surrender Russia. Again, he's talking about Mikayle Gorbachev.

939
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 1: To liberal ideologies. In Wall Street, capitalists boxed into a

940
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 1: corner surrounded by Western armies, blockaded with sanctions, the little

941
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 1: red buttons may seem the only viable alternative to a

942
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:40,480
Speaker 1: humiliating defeat and becoming another economically plundered satellite of the West,

943
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:43,919
Speaker 1: as happened to those countries who recently suffered the same

944
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:47,960
Speaker 1: fate in the Middle East. Wow, I mean, really think

945
00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:50,280
Speaker 1: about that. And this entire thing is actually worth reading

946
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:54,240
Speaker 1: because what he says here is in terms of the

947
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:58,920
Speaker 1: goals for Russia. Here's his conclusion. An entirely possible scenario

948
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:02,320
Speaker 1: is that Russia will itself end the war through negotiations,

949
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:06,480
Speaker 1: yet not before listen to this, clearly destroying the limited

950
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 1: capabilities of the Ukrainian Army and causing severe damage to

951
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 1: its infrastructure, electricity, water, food supply chain, leaving and already

952
00:52:15,239 --> 00:52:19,480
Speaker 1: economically declining West to pay for rebuilding, while sending a

953
00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 1: very clear message to NATO in those countries allowing it

954
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 1: to happen to keep away from Russia's borders, which incidentally

955
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,440
Speaker 1: is what all of this was about in the first place.

956
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 1: The alternative scenario is frightening again, a threatening of nuclear war,

957
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 1: and he says this in conclusion. The Russian response will

958
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 1: shocked both NATO and Western politicians. As any bullies, They

959
00:52:39,719 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 1: will now retire to lick their wounded pride stick their

960
00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 1: tongues out, as will the indoctrinated denizens of Western social

961
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:49,400
Speaker 1: media with the three second attention span of a goldfish.

962
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:56,319
Speaker 1: Ukrainians forgotten as the next climate extension scare emerges or

963
00:52:56,360 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 1: iPhone announces its new upgrade. Man, sometimes they know us,

964
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:05,400
Speaker 1: fact like they're like still communists or something. I know

965
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:08,480
Speaker 1: you all are the most like it's just like state capital,

966
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:11,840
Speaker 1: like crony capitalism with your oligarchs. It's not like as usual,

967
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:15,239
Speaker 1: like principled anti capitalist stance anymore. It's as usual. They

968
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:17,359
Speaker 1: have no ground really to stand on. But they are

969
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:20,319
Speaker 1: good critics and they always were of the West. Now,

970
00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:23,000
Speaker 1: the reason why we spend time and reading you this,

971
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:27,600
Speaker 1: he is saying we're gonna level Ukraine militarily, then you're

972
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:31,440
Speaker 1: gonna pay for it in terms of reconstruction. And also

973
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 1: don't screw with us because we will knew Q. And

974
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 1: if you think that there's a you know, a humiliating defeat,

975
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:40,759
Speaker 1: what does that mean? I mean this is again, I

976
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:44,960
Speaker 1: think this is a very clear view into Putinism itself.

977
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 1: I can't tell you about connections or whatever, but having

978
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 1: observed this also in China, you know, they have this

979
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 1: thing called Global Times, which is considered the most hawkish

980
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 1: English outlet, which is supposed to view kind of the

981
00:53:57,440 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 1: the most extreme version of within the polit bureau, and

982
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:03,759
Speaker 1: then they have other outlets on the other side. We're

983
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:06,360
Speaker 1: bringing you this just to say this is a legitimate

984
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 1: view within Russia and specifically within what is allowed to

985
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 1: come out in English at this crisis, and that's important

986
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:18,759
Speaker 1: for us to read. And we need to understand that

987
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 1: they're not bluffing whenever it comes to the use of

988
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:24,359
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. And I want to say another thing too.

989
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:27,840
Speaker 1: I recommended that book The Bomb by Fred Kaplan yesterday.

990
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:30,920
Speaker 1: Continue to work my way through it. There is no

991
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 1: such thing as a small nuclear war. We have understood

992
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:36,800
Speaker 1: this since the nineteen fifties when they're like, hey, you

993
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:40,440
Speaker 1: should use nukes in Laos or in Vietnam, and Eisenhower's like,

994
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:42,480
Speaker 1: what are you crazy. He's like, no, We're not doing that.

995
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:45,239
Speaker 1: And there was an explicit admission by Robert mcnamaran in

996
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 1: the Kennedy administration that any exchange of nuclear weapons leads

997
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:53,799
Speaker 1: to almost full scale nuclear holocaust of the entire human race,

998
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:56,960
Speaker 1: if not just at least the Russian public and the

999
00:54:57,000 --> 00:55:00,640
Speaker 1: American public, the deaths of hundreds and hundreds of millions

1000
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 1: of people. And when you have this cavalier attitude inside

1001
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 1: of the Kremlin, and let's not whitewash, we have a

1002
00:55:06,680 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 1: cavalier attitude in the United States. We have elected politicians

1003
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 1: Adam Kissinger and Robert Roger Wicker advocating then for a

1004
00:55:14,600 --> 00:55:19,000
Speaker 1: no Flyesne. These are real consequences, the likes of which

1005
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 1: we have not seen I don't know, forty years, fifty years.

1006
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:24,239
Speaker 1: Berlin crisis and the Cuban missile crisis are probably as

1007
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:26,840
Speaker 1: close as against. Yeah, it's as serious as it gets.

1008
00:55:26,840 --> 00:55:29,600
Speaker 1: And even that second piece, like, okay, if we don't

1009
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:33,720
Speaker 1: do the nuclear war, it's the if we can't have Ukraine,

1010
00:55:33,760 --> 00:55:37,280
Speaker 1: nobody can, Like basically, we're going to destroy this place.

1011
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 1: And let's also, I mean, let's not forget what Putin

1012
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:45,680
Speaker 1: himself has said about the consequences the likes of which

1013
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 1: mankind has never seen, or whatever rhetoric he said that. Yeah,

1014
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:49,800
Speaker 1: he said that whenever he put his nuclear forces on

1015
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:54,360
Speaker 1: higher on Hilert. I mean, these are serious actions of

1016
00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 1: a person who has proven himself capable of taking actions.

1017
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:01,759
Speaker 1: I mean, the invasion of Ukraine was an insane thing

1018
00:56:01,800 --> 00:56:06,359
Speaker 1: to do from just like the interest of Russia and

1019
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:08,920
Speaker 1: the people there and the consequences that they're going to suffer.

1020
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 1: So I think you should take what he's saying very seriously.

1021
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 1: I don't think that you should assume that it's a

1022
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:17,319
Speaker 1: bluff at all. And then these little glimpses that we

1023
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:21,360
Speaker 1: have into what Russian state media is saying as well

1024
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:24,120
Speaker 1: provide a little bit of a window. Yesterday we brought

1025
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:28,839
Speaker 1: you the Russian State TV presenter who was basically saying, like,

1026
00:56:28,920 --> 00:56:30,960
Speaker 1: it's not worth being in the world of Russia's not

1027
00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:37,400
Speaker 1: in it. So this extremely nihilistic, like, you know, we

1028
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:40,239
Speaker 1: were willing to just take this whole place down if

1029
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:42,920
Speaker 1: we don't get what we want out of this situation,

1030
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 1: or if we feel too humiliated by I mean, that

1031
00:56:45,280 --> 00:56:48,799
Speaker 1: language comes up a lot too, this idea of being

1032
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:52,040
Speaker 1: humiliated by the West, And I think, you know, some

1033
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:54,120
Speaker 1: of the things that we're seeing now in the efforts

1034
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:56,520
Speaker 1: to completely cut them off in the global financial system

1035
00:56:56,960 --> 00:57:00,080
Speaker 1: plays into those fears of them being this sort of

1036
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:03,719
Speaker 1: of like hobbled, humiliated state once again. Yeah, I think

1037
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:07,400
Speaker 1: that's right. And Chrystal, you found this piece a mistakenly

1038
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:12,279
Speaker 1: published article in Riya Navasti. I'm sorry if I'm saying

1039
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:14,760
Speaker 1: he's incorrectly. Let's put this up there on the screen.

1040
00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:18,840
Speaker 1: It was titled the Resolution of a Ukraine Question and

1041
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 1: it was a mistakenly published article giving us an insight

1042
00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 1: into the neo imperialist thinking. Now what he points to

1043
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:29,080
Speaker 1: in this mistakenly published article, which was published eight am

1044
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 1: on February twenty six, it actually mistakenly celebrated a Russian

1045
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 1: victory because they thought that the state was going to

1046
00:57:35,080 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 1: collapse in two days. But the theme is is that

1047
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:43,040
Speaker 1: operation is a defeat for the West project to defeat Russia,

1048
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:45,800
Speaker 1: that Putin seized the moment to return Ukraine to its

1049
00:57:45,840 --> 00:57:49,640
Speaker 1: historical Slavic union with Russia and Belarus, and that NATO

1050
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:53,200
Speaker 1: candidacy is a symptom of the problem, not the main cause.

1051
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 1: Some of the quotations that he includes, the author calls

1052
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 1: this quote a new era, says that Russia is restoring

1053
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 1: its history unity, the tragedy of nineteen ninety one, the

1054
00:58:03,120 --> 00:58:08,240
Speaker 1: terrible catastrophe of our history, that unnatural aberration has been overcome.

1055
00:58:08,560 --> 00:58:11,720
Speaker 1: He concedes, it's a civil war in which brothers still

1056
00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:13,640
Speaker 1: shoot at each other even though they are divided only

1057
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 1: by their membership. But there will no longer be a

1058
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:20,960
Speaker 1: Ukraine which is anti Russia. So Putin has had to act. Now.

1059
00:58:21,040 --> 00:58:24,200
Speaker 1: In this thinking, we can say, without a drop of exaggeration,

1060
00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:29,280
Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin took upon himself a historic responsibility by deciding

1061
00:58:29,360 --> 00:58:32,240
Speaker 1: not to leave the resolution of the Ukraine question to

1062
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:37,080
Speaker 1: future generations. He says this the main issue was the

1063
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:41,160
Speaker 1: complex of a divided nation and complex of national humiliation

1064
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:43,600
Speaker 1: when the Russian House began to lose part of its

1065
00:58:43,680 --> 00:58:46,680
Speaker 1: foundation and then was forced to reconcile itself to the

1066
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 1: existence of two states of not one, but two peoples.

1067
00:58:50,360 --> 00:58:53,640
Speaker 1: So again, this long thread that we had cut here,

1068
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:55,680
Speaker 1: you can go ahead and cut out of this control room.

1069
00:58:56,080 --> 00:58:58,920
Speaker 1: What's important, though, and the reason we did and showed

1070
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:02,320
Speaker 1: it to you, is that this is the mindset which

1071
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:05,919
Speaker 1: drove the Ukraine campaign in the first place, and that

1072
00:59:06,280 --> 00:59:10,040
Speaker 1: is going to inform all the downstream decisions. How do

1073
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 1: you respond to sanctions, how do you respond to the

1074
00:59:13,320 --> 00:59:16,919
Speaker 1: continued escalation? Are they going to escalate the campaign in Kiev. Yes,

1075
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 1: almost certainly, if you read these things, if they view

1076
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:21,800
Speaker 1: it as one country, you know, with the same people

1077
00:59:21,960 --> 00:59:24,920
Speaker 1: and brothers and all of that, which is must restore

1078
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:28,080
Speaker 1: the slav union. We're dealing with the zardom of you know,

1079
00:59:28,240 --> 00:59:30,960
Speaker 1: the eighteen hundreds. And if that is the case, then

1080
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:34,560
Speaker 1: that's going to inform their nuclear doctrine as well. You

1081
00:59:34,600 --> 00:59:37,280
Speaker 1: put this all together, you have a very scary picture

1082
00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:41,880
Speaker 1: here that I fear that we completely underestimate both and

1083
00:59:42,000 --> 00:59:45,040
Speaker 1: as many Westerners have the capacity of the Russian people

1084
00:59:45,120 --> 00:59:49,760
Speaker 1: for suffering, their ability to double down, and their own

1085
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:54,080
Speaker 1: thinking in the use of nuclear weapons which could annihilate

1086
00:59:54,080 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 1: the human race. Yeah, and I think it's important to

1087
00:59:57,240 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 1: underscore what they say because they have have to justify

1088
01:00:00,960 --> 01:00:06,080
Speaker 1: to their population the aggressive and violent tactics used against

1089
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:09,919
Speaker 1: ordinary Ukrainians here, because again, I mean, these are very

1090
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:13,680
Speaker 1: closely related peoples. There's a lot of you know, there's

1091
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:15,640
Speaker 1: a lot of travel, there's a lot of families on

1092
01:00:15,720 --> 01:00:18,920
Speaker 1: both sides of the border. Ordinary Russians, no people in

1093
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 1: Ukraine have spent childhoods perhaps in Ukraine or summer. So

1094
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:27,200
Speaker 1: they have to justify to their population why they are

1095
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:32,560
Speaker 1: attacking the Ukrainian population, and so the line here that

1096
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 1: they use to try to do that is saying it's

1097
01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:37,960
Speaker 1: a civil war in which brothers still shoot at each

1098
01:00:38,000 --> 01:00:41,160
Speaker 1: other even though they were divided only by their membership

1099
01:00:41,200 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 1: of the Russian and the Ukrainian armies. But there will

1100
01:00:43,640 --> 01:00:46,680
Speaker 1: now no longer be a Ukraine which is anti Russia.

1101
01:00:46,720 --> 01:00:48,880
Speaker 1: So it's a sort of like, well, the means justified

1102
01:00:48,920 --> 01:00:53,160
Speaker 1: the end and the closing also is really significant for

1103
01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:57,520
Speaker 1: their potential thinking, which is they say Russia has not

1104
01:00:57,720 --> 01:01:00,720
Speaker 1: only thrown down a challenge to the West, it's shown

1105
01:01:00,760 --> 01:01:04,680
Speaker 1: the era of Western global domination can be considered fully

1106
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 1: and definitively over. The new world will be built by

1107
01:01:08,160 --> 01:01:11,400
Speaker 1: all civilizations and centers of power, naturally together with the West,

1108
01:01:11,520 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 1: united or not, but not on its terms and not

1109
01:01:14,520 --> 01:01:18,840
Speaker 1: according to its rules. So again this tells you this

1110
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:22,000
Speaker 1: was about a lot more than NATO, and even about

1111
01:01:22,040 --> 01:01:25,720
Speaker 1: a lot more than Ukraine. This shows you a sort

1112
01:01:25,760 --> 01:01:29,920
Speaker 1: of maximalist thinking about what this action means, which again

1113
01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:34,720
Speaker 1: also could give you some insight into the possibility of

1114
01:01:34,760 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 1: further action if they feel like they're humiliated or if

1115
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:40,200
Speaker 1: they feel like they haven't achieved their their aims of

1116
01:01:40,240 --> 01:01:44,880
Speaker 1: this reorientation of the globe based on their aggressive actions

1117
01:01:44,880 --> 01:01:50,120
Speaker 1: in Ukraine. So that's really important. Yes, yeah, it's really

1118
01:01:50,240 --> 01:01:53,000
Speaker 1: terrifying there. But luckily the people seem to have at

1119
01:01:53,080 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 1: least some heads on the shoulders right now. Yeah, it's

1120
01:01:55,680 --> 01:01:58,160
Speaker 1: pretty good picture right now. All right, we've gotten some

1121
01:01:58,280 --> 01:02:02,080
Speaker 1: new pulling out post Russian invasion polling to give you

1122
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:04,600
Speaker 1: a sense of how the American people are feeling about

1123
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:08,560
Speaker 1: all of this. The good news is that there is

1124
01:02:08,600 --> 01:02:11,240
Speaker 1: actually a lot of if you take Biden out of it,

1125
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:13,160
Speaker 1: the minute you ask about how is Biden doing on this,

1126
01:02:13,240 --> 01:02:16,160
Speaker 1: there's a partisan reaction, But if you ask overall about

1127
01:02:16,200 --> 01:02:19,400
Speaker 1: what we should do, there's a good bit of unity,

1128
01:02:20,200 --> 01:02:21,640
Speaker 1: which you can take as a good thing or a

1129
01:02:21,680 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 1: bad thing, depending on your perspective. Let's put the CNN

1130
01:02:24,720 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 1: tear sheet up on the screen, up on the screen.

1131
01:02:26,920 --> 01:02:29,840
Speaker 1: So most Americans want the US to do more to

1132
01:02:29,920 --> 01:02:34,360
Speaker 1: stop Russia, but most also oppose direct military actions. So

1133
01:02:34,400 --> 01:02:36,720
Speaker 1: on the very vague question of like should we do more,

1134
01:02:36,760 --> 01:02:39,080
Speaker 1: they're like yes, But when it's like should we put

1135
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:42,360
Speaker 1: foods on the ground, they're like no. Eighty three percent

1136
01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:46,440
Speaker 1: of Americans say they favor increased economic sanctions against Russia

1137
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:50,480
Speaker 1: in response to the invasion, just seventeen percent are opposed.

1138
01:02:51,240 --> 01:02:54,120
Speaker 1: A smaller majority sixty two percent also want to see

1139
01:02:54,160 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 1: the US do more to stop Russian military action in Ukraine,

1140
01:02:57,640 --> 01:03:00,280
Speaker 1: with thirty eight percent percent saying the country is already

1141
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:03,240
Speaker 1: done enough. Again, this is very vague. They're like, yeah,

1142
01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:05,560
Speaker 1: we should do more on economics, we should do more

1143
01:03:05,600 --> 01:03:08,720
Speaker 1: to stop Russian military action. But when you actually get

1144
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:12,760
Speaker 1: into it and ask, there is a majority opposed to

1145
01:03:12,800 --> 01:03:17,800
Speaker 1: direct military action even if sanctions fail to work. So

1146
01:03:18,120 --> 01:03:21,520
Speaker 1: even in the event sanctions don't deter Russian behavior at all,

1147
01:03:21,600 --> 01:03:25,640
Speaker 1: which frankly badly they're probably unlikely to do, only forty

1148
01:03:25,760 --> 01:03:29,160
Speaker 1: two percent even in that scenario where sanctions fail, we're

1149
01:03:29,200 --> 01:03:34,520
Speaker 1: in favor of direct military action. So far, even though

1150
01:03:34,880 --> 01:03:37,680
Speaker 1: the public is pretty much in line with where the

1151
01:03:37,680 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 1: Biden administration is in the actions that they have taken

1152
01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:43,720
Speaker 1: so far, he still does not get high approval ratings

1153
01:03:43,760 --> 01:03:46,720
Speaker 1: from the public. Only forty two percent said that they

1154
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:49,560
Speaker 1: trust Biden at least moderately to make the right decisions

1155
01:03:49,560 --> 01:03:53,120
Speaker 1: regarding the situation in Ukraine. That is about where his

1156
01:03:53,240 --> 01:03:56,360
Speaker 1: overall approval rating is. And again you have a partisan

1157
01:03:56,400 --> 01:03:59,600
Speaker 1: divide here in terms of how people are looking at

1158
01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:03,800
Speaker 1: you know Biden's response specifically, even on the big picture questions,

1159
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:07,040
Speaker 1: there's actually a lot of partisan unity. And there was

1160
01:04:07,200 --> 01:04:09,760
Speaker 1: one other piece that was interesting to me here is

1161
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:12,440
Speaker 1: that even though on those big questions you don't have

1162
01:04:12,520 --> 01:04:18,240
Speaker 1: a lot of partisan differences, there are generational differences. That

1163
01:04:18,400 --> 01:04:20,680
Speaker 1: was what I was going to call Young Americans are

1164
01:04:20,920 --> 01:04:23,400
Speaker 1: less hawkish than older Americans, is the best way to

1165
01:04:23,400 --> 01:04:26,000
Speaker 1: put it. So Americans on our age forty five were

1166
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:29,240
Speaker 1: eleven percentage points less likely than older Americans to support

1167
01:04:29,280 --> 01:04:32,080
Speaker 1: increased sanctions. So they were less likely to say, hey,

1168
01:04:32,120 --> 01:04:34,680
Speaker 1: we need to throw more economic sanctions at them, and

1169
01:04:34,760 --> 01:04:36,760
Speaker 1: they were ten points less likely to say the US

1170
01:04:36,800 --> 01:04:40,600
Speaker 1: should do more against Russia, although all age groups were

1171
01:04:40,760 --> 01:04:45,080
Speaker 1: against military actions. So interesting generational divides. Yeah, the generational

1172
01:04:45,120 --> 01:04:47,680
Speaker 1: adapt is fascinating. Like the eleven point drop in terms

1173
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:51,280
Speaker 1: of what's happening. I also found the increase the way

1174
01:04:51,320 --> 01:04:53,720
Speaker 1: that people are looking at this. I can already attest

1175
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:56,320
Speaker 1: to it having filled up the tank recently, which is

1176
01:04:56,360 --> 01:04:59,200
Speaker 1: that most Americans say they should consider the impact of

1177
01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:02,040
Speaker 1: gas prices. I also just saw this morning, Crystal that

1178
01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:05,520
Speaker 1: wheat prices are skyrocketing right now because ten to twelve

1179
01:05:05,560 --> 01:05:08,760
Speaker 1: percent of the world's week comes out of Russia. Derek

1180
01:05:08,760 --> 01:05:12,840
Speaker 1: Thompson was telling that yesterday. Also sunflower oil another one.

1181
01:05:12,880 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 1: I think it's like seventy five percent. There are all

1182
01:05:15,200 --> 01:05:18,080
Speaker 1: kinds of massive disruptions that I think are coming to

1183
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:20,800
Speaker 1: everyday American life. I think four point fifty eight gallon

1184
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:25,400
Speaker 1: is of almost certainty at this point the even with

1185
01:05:25,480 --> 01:05:28,320
Speaker 1: the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and if this

1186
01:05:28,600 --> 01:05:31,040
Speaker 1: keeps up for a long time, you can continue to

1187
01:05:31,080 --> 01:05:35,240
Speaker 1: see cascading effects in terms of stock valuations, how this

1188
01:05:35,280 --> 01:05:38,960
Speaker 1: is going to affect the global financial system, markets, consumer

1189
01:05:39,040 --> 01:05:42,560
Speaker 1: goods very much on our end. So it's not nothing.

1190
01:05:42,560 --> 01:05:45,200
Speaker 1: I mean, we're going to see a disruption to daily life,

1191
01:05:45,240 --> 01:05:46,680
Speaker 1: and I think that when we do, that's going to

1192
01:05:46,760 --> 01:05:49,160
Speaker 1: change these figures and make it even more likely to

1193
01:05:49,200 --> 01:05:51,680
Speaker 1: say that the West needs to either give something up

1194
01:05:51,840 --> 01:05:54,520
Speaker 1: or whatever. Yeah. The other point of this is also

1195
01:05:54,560 --> 01:05:57,160
Speaker 1: to consider where we started from, which is also interesting.

1196
01:05:57,480 --> 01:05:59,400
Speaker 1: Put that up there on the screen. So we brought

1197
01:05:59,400 --> 01:06:02,160
Speaker 1: you this app This was published I think right the

1198
01:06:02,280 --> 01:06:06,120
Speaker 1: day before the invasion itself. Most in the US oppose

1199
01:06:06,200 --> 01:06:09,680
Speaker 1: a major role in Russia. Strife. So what was important

1200
01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:12,640
Speaker 1: there is that just twenty six percent the day before

1201
01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:15,160
Speaker 1: the invasion said that we should have a major role

1202
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:18,360
Speaker 1: in the conflict, fifty two percent said a minor role,

1203
01:06:18,480 --> 01:06:21,200
Speaker 1: twenty percent said none at all. But if you pair

1204
01:06:21,280 --> 01:06:23,560
Speaker 1: that with how the invasion has gone and now many

1205
01:06:23,560 --> 01:06:25,520
Speaker 1: people saying, oh, well, we should do more, we should

1206
01:06:25,560 --> 01:06:28,480
Speaker 1: do something, now things have shifted a little bit. So

1207
01:06:28,520 --> 01:06:30,640
Speaker 1: it also goes to show you how fickle public opinion

1208
01:06:30,680 --> 01:06:33,120
Speaker 1: can be. Well, this is what makes me nervous is

1209
01:06:33,160 --> 01:06:37,840
Speaker 1: because yes, right now they're saying, you know, no military involvement,

1210
01:06:37,960 --> 01:06:41,600
Speaker 1: even if sanctions should fail. But you've had a dramatic

1211
01:06:41,720 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 1: shift thanks to what has been effectively a media propaganda

1212
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:49,760
Speaker 1: campaign in the way that the public is viewing this conflict,

1213
01:06:50,200 --> 01:06:54,520
Speaker 1: and there is a dramatic increase in appetite for whatever

1214
01:06:54,760 --> 01:06:57,880
Speaker 1: do more means. And again, I mean, I've made it

1215
01:06:57,920 --> 01:07:00,320
Speaker 1: pretty clear how I think about the economics, saying I

1216
01:07:00,320 --> 01:07:04,240
Speaker 1: think in a lot of times, what these overwhelming economic

1217
01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:07,680
Speaker 1: sanctions really do is not to benefit you know, the

1218
01:07:07,720 --> 01:07:10,479
Speaker 1: aims and the goals that we have. It's really more

1219
01:07:10,680 --> 01:07:13,640
Speaker 1: a sort of flexing of political muscle to sort of

1220
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:16,400
Speaker 1: show the American public that you're doing everything you can

1221
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:19,520
Speaker 1: and you're punishing the bad guys and you're making them pay.

1222
01:07:19,760 --> 01:07:22,640
Speaker 1: It's more about political theater than it is about an

1223
01:07:22,680 --> 01:07:26,960
Speaker 1: actually effective tool to achieve your stated goals. That's just

1224
01:07:27,000 --> 01:07:30,880
Speaker 1: based on the historical record. So I, on the one hand,

1225
01:07:30,920 --> 01:07:33,080
Speaker 1: that's why I said it's mixed that you have such

1226
01:07:33,120 --> 01:07:35,840
Speaker 1: sort of bipartisan agreement of eighty three percent of Americans

1227
01:07:35,840 --> 01:07:39,240
Speaker 1: saying they want more in terms of economic sanctions and

1228
01:07:39,840 --> 01:07:42,440
Speaker 1: sixty two percent saying they want more to stop Russian

1229
01:07:42,480 --> 01:07:47,200
Speaker 1: military action in Ukraine. Right now, those sentiments are squishy

1230
01:07:47,360 --> 01:07:51,360
Speaker 1: and undefined. But when you have, you know, that sort

1231
01:07:51,400 --> 01:07:54,440
Speaker 1: of instinct and that desire fed by a media propaganda

1232
01:07:54,480 --> 01:07:57,600
Speaker 1: campaign to do more, to be harder, to be more hawkish,

1233
01:07:58,160 --> 01:08:00,640
Speaker 1: how hard is it then to make the case that

1234
01:08:00,720 --> 01:08:04,200
Speaker 1: Adam Kinzinger and Center Wicker making of like, yeah, we

1235
01:08:04,240 --> 01:08:06,080
Speaker 1: got to do no fly zone. That's the more that

1236
01:08:06,120 --> 01:08:09,080
Speaker 1: we need to do. So that's why I find these

1237
01:08:09,200 --> 01:08:13,120
Speaker 1: numbers troubling, and the dramatic shift in public opinion that

1238
01:08:13,160 --> 01:08:15,880
Speaker 1: has occurred in a very short period of time is

1239
01:08:15,960 --> 01:08:19,719
Speaker 1: also very worrisome to me, Again, as someone who would

1240
01:08:19,760 --> 01:08:22,360
Speaker 1: like to avert nuclear war, who would like to also

1241
01:08:22,400 --> 01:08:25,440
Speaker 1: avert just you know, to limit the amount of civilian

1242
01:08:25,760 --> 01:08:29,280
Speaker 1: suffering both among the Ukrainian people and also among the

1243
01:08:29,320 --> 01:08:32,639
Speaker 1: Russian people too, as little as possible. So there's another

1244
01:08:32,640 --> 01:08:34,640
Speaker 1: piece there that I think is interesting. Let's put this

1245
01:08:34,680 --> 01:08:36,840
Speaker 1: next pull up on the screen. This is from Quinnipeak.

1246
01:08:37,200 --> 01:08:40,040
Speaker 1: They say, do you think the steps Biden has taken

1247
01:08:40,080 --> 01:08:44,840
Speaker 1: to punish Russia for the invasion of Ukraine have been enough?

1248
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:48,120
Speaker 1: And so you've got three percent overall, these are the totals,

1249
01:08:48,120 --> 01:08:50,880
Speaker 1: three percent to say too tough. I'm kind of in

1250
01:08:50,920 --> 01:08:54,360
Speaker 1: that three percent. I guess fifty seven percent who say

1251
01:08:54,880 --> 01:08:57,760
Speaker 1: not tough enough and about twenty nine percent who say

1252
01:08:57,800 --> 01:09:01,240
Speaker 1: about right. So again you have this population wide majority

1253
01:09:01,240 --> 01:09:03,840
Speaker 1: physician of we got to do more, we got to

1254
01:09:03,880 --> 01:09:06,479
Speaker 1: be harsher, we got to be tougher. And this was

1255
01:09:06,600 --> 01:09:11,120
Speaker 1: really interesting to me, Sager, given the sort of all

1256
01:09:11,160 --> 01:09:15,559
Speaker 1: over the place stance of Republican leaders, and I think

1257
01:09:15,600 --> 01:09:18,600
Speaker 1: also of the Republican base leading into the invasion, a

1258
01:09:18,640 --> 01:09:20,920
Speaker 1: lot of language about like why do we care about this?

1259
01:09:21,000 --> 01:09:23,639
Speaker 1: And Putin has a point, and you know, we and

1260
01:09:23,880 --> 01:09:28,080
Speaker 1: sort of like this weird respect for him too. Now

1261
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:32,000
Speaker 1: you have the Republican base leading the charge in the

1262
01:09:32,080 --> 01:09:35,080
Speaker 1: not tough enough direction. So only two percent say that

1263
01:09:35,320 --> 01:09:40,120
Speaker 1: Biden is being too tough, eighty percent say not tough enough,

1264
01:09:40,240 --> 01:09:43,920
Speaker 1: and eleven percent say about right. And you've seen this

1265
01:09:44,200 --> 01:09:47,400
Speaker 1: in the sort of confused rhetoric coming out sometimes of

1266
01:09:47,439 --> 01:09:50,360
Speaker 1: the very same people over on Fox News of like

1267
01:09:51,160 --> 01:09:53,760
Speaker 1: saying basically, why do we care about this? But on

1268
01:09:54,479 --> 01:09:57,200
Speaker 1: you know, in the next breath, like we've Biden's week

1269
01:09:57,240 --> 01:10:00,320
Speaker 1: and we've got to do more. So the Republican base

1270
01:10:00,479 --> 01:10:04,400
Speaker 1: has reverted to their sort of like typical hawkish inclinations.

1271
01:10:04,439 --> 01:10:06,280
Speaker 1: I would say, yeah, I think you're right, and I

1272
01:10:06,320 --> 01:10:09,160
Speaker 1: would say one of the most important things Trump could

1273
01:10:09,200 --> 01:10:11,320
Speaker 1: do for this country is to come out against a

1274
01:10:11,400 --> 01:10:14,599
Speaker 1: no fly zone and against war with Russia. He needs

1275
01:10:14,640 --> 01:10:17,040
Speaker 1: to come out explicitly and say some of the things

1276
01:10:17,040 --> 01:10:18,320
Speaker 1: that he said when he was in the White House

1277
01:10:18,360 --> 01:10:20,000
Speaker 1: and he said, hey, look, you know it's actually okay

1278
01:10:20,040 --> 01:10:22,800
Speaker 1: to have diplomacy all of this. Instead, he wants to

1279
01:10:22,840 --> 01:10:25,200
Speaker 1: dunk on Biden and be like this never would have happened. Actually,

1280
01:10:25,240 --> 01:10:27,760
Speaker 1: I'm the reason NATO is so strong. I'm the one

1281
01:10:27,760 --> 01:10:31,000
Speaker 1: who shipped lethal aid to Ukraine. Look like I said

1282
01:10:31,040 --> 01:10:33,680
Speaker 1: during the vaccination. One of the most important things he

1283
01:10:33,720 --> 01:10:36,639
Speaker 1: could do is to come out early and quash any

1284
01:10:36,720 --> 01:10:40,040
Speaker 1: calls of oh, Biden is looking weak and all of that.

1285
01:10:40,479 --> 01:10:42,559
Speaker 1: I don't think you'll actually do it, almost certainly not.

1286
01:10:42,720 --> 01:10:46,639
Speaker 1: But look, you know, Trump, if you're listening, it would

1287
01:10:46,720 --> 01:10:49,519
Speaker 1: be a great thing in order for the country to

1288
01:10:49,560 --> 01:10:53,040
Speaker 1: avoid work. It's a huge difference here because I think

1289
01:10:53,080 --> 01:10:55,680
Speaker 1: opinions on this conflict in what should be done are

1290
01:10:55,720 --> 01:10:59,160
Speaker 1: still very squishy, and there are really nefarious forces out there,

1291
01:10:59,200 --> 01:11:04,639
Speaker 1: from Hillary Clinton to Eric Swalwell to Adam Kinzigger, who

1292
01:11:04,640 --> 01:11:07,400
Speaker 1: are trying to push us in what is an extremely

1293
01:11:07,800 --> 01:11:11,880
Speaker 1: dangerous and devastating situation. So anybody who wants to be

1294
01:11:11,920 --> 01:11:15,160
Speaker 1: a part of solidifying public opinion in the opposite direction,

1295
01:11:15,880 --> 01:11:20,960
Speaker 1: please get involved, Please join us. All right, Sager, what

1296
01:11:20,960 --> 01:11:23,559
Speaker 1: are you looking at? Well? You all know that Jumanji mean,

1297
01:11:23,920 --> 01:11:26,519
Speaker 1: what year is it? It's a question I found myself

1298
01:11:26,560 --> 01:11:29,040
Speaker 1: seriously considering while trying to break all of this down

1299
01:11:29,080 --> 01:11:32,400
Speaker 1: for you together. We've already disregarded Munich in nineteen thirty

1300
01:11:32,479 --> 01:11:35,439
Speaker 1: nine and the policy of appeasement as not particularly useful

1301
01:11:35,439 --> 01:11:37,920
Speaker 1: in our analysis of the Ukraine situation. But there are

1302
01:11:37,920 --> 01:11:40,720
Speaker 1: other historical parallels which are important and which I think

1303
01:11:40,760 --> 01:11:43,040
Speaker 1: could actually help all of you make sense of the

1304
01:11:43,160 --> 01:11:45,840
Speaker 1: rapidly changing world that we're in right now. I'm going

1305
01:11:45,880 --> 01:11:48,120
Speaker 1: to start with the most recent parallels and then go

1306
01:11:48,240 --> 01:11:52,240
Speaker 1: back from there. Immediately, when Putin invaded Ukraine, what came

1307
01:11:52,280 --> 01:11:55,559
Speaker 1: to mind from me was the Soviet Premier Brezhnev's invasion

1308
01:11:55,560 --> 01:11:58,879
Speaker 1: of Afghanistan in nineteen seventy nine. There are several interesting

1309
01:11:58,920 --> 01:12:02,080
Speaker 1: parallels on both sides the conflict. On the Russian side,

1310
01:12:02,120 --> 01:12:04,200
Speaker 1: it was an aggressive move that was made at the

1311
01:12:04,320 --> 01:12:07,479
Speaker 1: zenith of Soviet military power, but at a time when

1312
01:12:07,479 --> 01:12:10,400
Speaker 1: it was clear their economic system was stagnating. It was

1313
01:12:10,400 --> 01:12:12,720
Speaker 1: meant to project their power to the globe that you

1314
01:12:12,720 --> 01:12:16,120
Speaker 1: should not screw with the Soviet Union. Well, what ended

1315
01:12:16,200 --> 01:12:19,479
Speaker 1: up happening was a decade long military in Broglio, where

1316
01:12:19,479 --> 01:12:24,280
Speaker 1: fifteen thousand Soviet soldiers died and Soviet power was diminished worldwide,

1317
01:12:24,360 --> 01:12:27,760
Speaker 1: where the domestic Russian population actually rose up against a

1318
01:12:27,840 --> 01:12:32,240
Speaker 1: costly and unjust war that massacred civilians. On this side

1319
01:12:32,240 --> 01:12:34,839
Speaker 1: of the Atlantic, of course, things were also pretty similar

1320
01:12:34,960 --> 01:12:37,880
Speaker 1: at the outbreak of that invasion of Afghanistan. Jimmy Carter

1321
01:12:38,080 --> 01:12:41,720
Speaker 1: was president. It was weak and unpopular. But where the coincidence,

1322
01:12:41,960 --> 01:12:47,640
Speaker 1: where that coincides is this. Brezhnev's invasion completely changed the

1323
01:12:47,720 --> 01:12:51,920
Speaker 1: bipartisan approach to Soviet Union at the time, known as detante,

1324
01:12:52,200 --> 01:12:55,320
Speaker 1: in effect living in peace with the Soviet Union. The

1325
01:12:55,360 --> 01:12:58,000
Speaker 1: invasion was a great gift of the Cold warhawks in

1326
01:12:58,120 --> 01:13:01,320
Speaker 1: Washington and changed the barpartisan consensus with the election of

1327
01:13:01,400 --> 01:13:04,799
Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan to something called rollback. Now where the explicit

1328
01:13:04,840 --> 01:13:08,400
Speaker 1: aim in rollback of American power was to confront Soviet

1329
01:13:08,439 --> 01:13:11,800
Speaker 1: power wherever it was and roll back its influence. A

1330
01:13:11,880 --> 01:13:15,840
Speaker 1: Russian invasion which empowers hawks and realigns global top politics

1331
01:13:16,000 --> 01:13:19,000
Speaker 1: towards a more aggressive stance. Does that sound familiar? And

1332
01:13:19,160 --> 01:13:22,320
Speaker 1: invasion which the military is a disaster and which could

1333
01:13:22,360 --> 01:13:25,599
Speaker 1: lead to big consequences domestically in Russia. Yeah, I think

1334
01:13:25,720 --> 01:13:29,040
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy nine is a pretty spot on analysis. If

1335
01:13:29,080 --> 01:13:31,800
Speaker 1: you were to ask me, it's probably the historical episode

1336
01:13:31,880 --> 01:13:34,120
Speaker 1: that rhymes with this one the most with where we

1337
01:13:34,160 --> 01:13:38,479
Speaker 1: are today. With some important caveats, Afghanistan is not Ukraine here,

1338
01:13:38,560 --> 01:13:41,000
Speaker 1: we're talking about Europe, So of course a more dire

1339
01:13:41,080 --> 01:13:43,880
Speaker 1: scenario might actually even be more apt to look at.

1340
01:13:44,080 --> 01:13:47,400
Speaker 1: So let's keep going with the historical analogies. It's possible

1341
01:13:47,439 --> 01:13:50,360
Speaker 1: it's a mix of nineteen seventy nine and Japan in

1342
01:13:50,439 --> 01:13:53,800
Speaker 1: nineteen forty. We briefly touched on this yesterday. The Japanese

1343
01:13:53,840 --> 01:13:57,400
Speaker 1: Empire throughout the nineteen thirties was undergoing a massive expansion

1344
01:13:57,600 --> 01:14:01,439
Speaker 1: through wars of territorial conquests, start with Manchuria and China

1345
01:14:01,479 --> 01:14:04,880
Speaker 1: and expanding all throughout the Pacific. In nineteen forty, Japan,

1346
01:14:05,040 --> 01:14:07,640
Speaker 1: as an ally of Nazi Germany, took advantage of the

1347
01:14:07,680 --> 01:14:11,000
Speaker 1: fall of France and invaded French Indo China, now known

1348
01:14:11,040 --> 01:14:14,839
Speaker 1: as Vietnam. The US State Department, seeking to bolster its ally,

1349
01:14:15,160 --> 01:14:18,599
Speaker 1: decided to institute an oil embargo on Japan at the time.

1350
01:14:19,240 --> 01:14:22,280
Speaker 1: This was a big problem for Japan because they import

1351
01:14:22,320 --> 01:14:24,960
Speaker 1: about eighty percent of its oil from the US at

1352
01:14:24,960 --> 01:14:27,880
Speaker 1: the time, and they needed that oil to continue their

1353
01:14:27,960 --> 01:14:31,599
Speaker 1: territorial conquest across Asia, including the Philippines in the Dutch

1354
01:14:31,640 --> 01:14:36,280
Speaker 1: East Indies. So Japan decided that the oil embargo was

1355
01:14:36,400 --> 01:14:38,920
Speaker 1: such an existential threat to their ability to carry out

1356
01:14:38,920 --> 01:14:41,400
Speaker 1: the war effort, they would then carry out a first

1357
01:14:41,439 --> 01:14:44,280
Speaker 1: strike on the US at Pearl Harbor. Now, the important

1358
01:14:44,280 --> 01:14:47,200
Speaker 1: thing to consider in this parallel is this, the US

1359
01:14:47,640 --> 01:14:50,840
Speaker 1: did not seek war with the Empire of Japan at

1360
01:14:50,880 --> 01:14:54,920
Speaker 1: that time, and in fact undercounted how significant of a

1361
01:14:54,960 --> 01:14:57,760
Speaker 1: decision it was making when it cut Japan off from

1362
01:14:57,760 --> 01:15:01,400
Speaker 1: its oil supply. The decision to argo Japan from oil

1363
01:15:01,760 --> 01:15:04,839
Speaker 1: was not even made by President Roosevelt. It was merely

1364
01:15:05,400 --> 01:15:08,479
Speaker 1: he was merely notified of it, with no consideration at

1365
01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:11,160
Speaker 1: the top levels of the United States government. That action

1366
01:15:11,640 --> 01:15:14,799
Speaker 1: directly led to war, and it shows us the danger

1367
01:15:14,840 --> 01:15:17,840
Speaker 1: of how massive financial warfare, akin to the sanctions that

1368
01:15:17,840 --> 01:15:21,559
Speaker 1: we see in Russia right now, can go hot extremely quickly.

1369
01:15:21,880 --> 01:15:23,760
Speaker 1: And let's go further down the chain of what else

1370
01:15:23,880 --> 01:15:27,080
Speaker 1: is possible. The last and most terrifying possibility. This is

1371
01:15:27,160 --> 01:15:30,439
Speaker 1: nineteen fourteen all over again. A point I made yesterday

1372
01:15:30,479 --> 01:15:32,799
Speaker 1: and I continue to think is very important to understand,

1373
01:15:33,120 --> 01:15:35,800
Speaker 1: is we are in the very, very very beginning of

1374
01:15:35,840 --> 01:15:39,040
Speaker 1: this crisis, the July crisis of nineteen fourteen, which led

1375
01:15:39,040 --> 01:15:41,320
Speaker 1: to the outbreak of the First World War. It lasted

1376
01:15:41,360 --> 01:15:44,040
Speaker 1: a whole month. If you consider it in that context,

1377
01:15:44,160 --> 01:15:46,519
Speaker 1: this could be the beginnings of what's going to happen.

1378
01:15:46,720 --> 01:15:49,760
Speaker 1: The opening salvo in a very very long war, and

1379
01:15:49,800 --> 01:15:52,080
Speaker 1: if it is July nineteen fourteen, then here are the

1380
01:15:52,080 --> 01:15:55,240
Speaker 1: parallels that we see for today. First and foremost the

1381
01:15:55,280 --> 01:15:58,880
Speaker 1: Alliance system, obviously with NATO membership in the Baltic States

1382
01:15:58,880 --> 01:16:02,120
Speaker 1: and Eastern Europe, where there is a literal nuclear tripwire

1383
01:16:02,160 --> 01:16:05,840
Speaker 1: if Russia invades or attacks those countries. But more troublingly

1384
01:16:05,880 --> 01:16:08,719
Speaker 1: in my opinion, is the role of the European Union

1385
01:16:08,840 --> 01:16:11,879
Speaker 1: right now, which announced over the weekend that they were intended,

1386
01:16:11,920 --> 01:16:13,960
Speaker 1: although it's up in the air right now, to deliver

1387
01:16:14,040 --> 01:16:16,600
Speaker 1: fighter jets to the Ukrainian military for its use in

1388
01:16:16,720 --> 01:16:20,920
Speaker 1: war against Russia. Furthermore, in the EU's announcement, the Commissioner

1389
01:16:21,000 --> 01:16:24,680
Speaker 1: Ursula von der Lyon said the Ukraine belongs in the

1390
01:16:24,720 --> 01:16:28,000
Speaker 1: European Union because quote, they are one of us, and

1391
01:16:28,040 --> 01:16:30,760
Speaker 1: we want them in. This was immediately followed up by

1392
01:16:30,760 --> 01:16:34,479
Speaker 1: President Zelenski of Ukraine, who officially signed the papers yesterday

1393
01:16:34,520 --> 01:16:38,519
Speaker 1: requesting immediate membership within the European Union. This move is,

1394
01:16:38,920 --> 01:16:41,920
Speaker 1: if accepted, as far from symbolic. It would increase the

1395
01:16:41,920 --> 01:16:44,640
Speaker 1: amount of Western military a that Ukraine is entitled to,

1396
01:16:44,920 --> 01:16:49,080
Speaker 1: but even more so, the interlecting, intersecting Alliance system starts

1397
01:16:49,120 --> 01:16:52,360
Speaker 1: to rhyme with nineteen fourteen. Think about this. Ukraine is

1398
01:16:52,439 --> 01:16:54,880
Speaker 1: part of the EU, then the EU commits itself fully

1399
01:16:54,920 --> 01:16:59,120
Speaker 1: to the military defense. Well when parts of the EU

1400
01:16:59,400 --> 01:17:01,840
Speaker 1: could then be come embroiled in a war with Russia,

1401
01:17:01,960 --> 01:17:05,479
Speaker 1: well many member states of the EU will have to follow. Right.

1402
01:17:06,000 --> 01:17:08,680
Speaker 1: Did I mention the large portion of the EU is

1403
01:17:08,760 --> 01:17:11,760
Speaker 1: in NATO, which means if they go to war, that

1404
01:17:11,960 --> 01:17:15,200
Speaker 1: means we're going to war. Beyond the Alliance system are

1405
01:17:15,240 --> 01:17:19,519
Speaker 1: the polas two at two from the sympathetic country for

1406
01:17:19,840 --> 01:17:24,360
Speaker 1: Ukraine to higher action for everybody. Zelensky begged Biden yesterday

1407
01:17:24,360 --> 01:17:27,519
Speaker 1: to impose a no fly zone over Ukraine, telling him

1408
01:17:27,640 --> 01:17:29,920
Speaker 1: he would win the war if the West quote could

1409
01:17:29,960 --> 01:17:33,800
Speaker 1: do their part. In effect, Zelenski is asking the United

1410
01:17:33,840 --> 01:17:37,200
Speaker 1: States to declare war on Russia, shoot down Russian aircraft

1411
01:17:37,280 --> 01:17:39,680
Speaker 1: and start World War three, increase the chance of a

1412
01:17:39,760 --> 01:17:44,559
Speaker 1: nuclear confrontation between the US and Russia. That's madness, absolute madness.

1413
01:17:44,720 --> 01:17:48,920
Speaker 1: But in times of madness, the unthinkable become thinkable. Nobody

1414
01:17:48,960 --> 01:17:52,840
Speaker 1: in July nineteen fourteen thought that a Serbian territorial dispute

1415
01:17:52,920 --> 01:17:56,760
Speaker 1: would become a great war, And yet compare Zelenski's plea

1416
01:17:56,880 --> 01:17:58,920
Speaker 1: to this telegram from the Prince of Serbia to the

1417
01:17:58,960 --> 01:18:01,880
Speaker 1: Tsar of Russia. Quote, it is impossible for us to

1418
01:18:01,920 --> 01:18:04,920
Speaker 1: defend ourselves. We supplicate your majesty to give us your

1419
01:18:04,960 --> 01:18:07,760
Speaker 1: aid as soon as possible. The highly prized goodwill of

1420
01:18:07,760 --> 01:18:11,000
Speaker 1: your majesty makes us hopeful, hope firmly that our appeal

1421
01:18:11,000 --> 01:18:14,320
Speaker 1: will be heard by his generous slav heart. Yeah, as

1422
01:18:14,360 --> 01:18:16,679
Speaker 1: we all know, the Czar gave in and he guaranteed

1423
01:18:16,720 --> 01:18:19,080
Speaker 1: Serbia's security. He ended up paying the price with his

1424
01:18:19,160 --> 01:18:21,439
Speaker 1: life and the lives of hundreds of thousands of his

1425
01:18:21,560 --> 01:18:24,360
Speaker 1: own soldiers. I'll end with the quote that I read

1426
01:18:24,439 --> 01:18:27,960
Speaker 1: yesterday but which is so immensely important from Robert McNamara,

1427
01:18:28,120 --> 01:18:31,360
Speaker 1: he was a Secretary of Defense during the Cuban missile crisis. Quote.

1428
01:18:32,000 --> 01:18:34,160
Speaker 1: I want to say, and this is very important. In

1429
01:18:34,240 --> 01:18:37,000
Speaker 1: the end, we lucked out. It was luck that prevented

1430
01:18:37,080 --> 01:18:40,160
Speaker 1: nuclear war. We came that close to nuclear war. At

1431
01:18:40,200 --> 01:18:44,360
Speaker 1: the end. Rational individuals. Kennedy was rational, Khruschev was rational,

1432
01:18:44,640 --> 01:18:47,200
Speaker 1: Castro was rational. I just think that that quote is

1433
01:18:47,240 --> 01:18:50,679
Speaker 1: so incredibly important for people to understand and to also

1434
01:18:50,720 --> 01:18:52,680
Speaker 1: to think about. And if you want to hear my

1435
01:18:52,840 --> 01:18:56,360
Speaker 1: reaction to Sager's monologue become a premium subscriber today at

1436
01:18:56,360 --> 01:19:02,519
Speaker 1: Breakingpoints dot com. Crystal, what do you take a look at? Well, guys,

1437
01:19:02,520 --> 01:19:04,920
Speaker 1: the Ukraine crisis, coming on the heels of the pandemic,

1438
01:19:04,960 --> 01:19:08,559
Speaker 1: has just made it startlingly clear how vulnerable our own

1439
01:19:08,600 --> 01:19:12,719
Speaker 1: country is right now, Buffeted by supply shocks, beset by inflation,

1440
01:19:12,840 --> 01:19:16,479
Speaker 1: thwarted by financial elites and politicians in every effort to

1441
01:19:16,520 --> 01:19:20,240
Speaker 1: create resiliency and national self reliance? How did we end

1442
01:19:20,320 --> 01:19:22,560
Speaker 1: up in such a precarious place? Well front of the

1443
01:19:22,560 --> 01:19:25,400
Speaker 1: show and executive editor for The American Prospect, David Dyan

1444
01:19:25,840 --> 01:19:29,320
Speaker 1: he knows exactly who to blame, mainstream of economists, people

1445
01:19:29,360 --> 01:19:31,640
Speaker 1: like Larry Summers, who teamed up with Wall Street and

1446
01:19:31,720 --> 01:19:35,480
Speaker 1: corporate interest to push what David describes as a financier

1447
01:19:35,640 --> 01:19:38,960
Speaker 1: above all approach. In a biting new piece for The

1448
01:19:38,960 --> 01:19:41,840
Speaker 1: New York Times, David compares the economy that are Wall

1449
01:19:41,840 --> 01:19:45,639
Speaker 1: Street and economic elites built to a shoddily constructed bridge.

1450
01:19:45,680 --> 01:19:50,080
Speaker 1: He writes, if engineers constructed a bridge this prone to collapse,

1451
01:19:50,360 --> 01:19:54,400
Speaker 1: they'd be fired. But with our accountability free elites, being

1452
01:19:54,439 --> 01:19:58,280
Speaker 1: an economist means never having to say you're sorry. Russia's

1453
01:19:58,280 --> 01:20:00,479
Speaker 1: were on Ukraine in alignment with China should be a

1454
01:20:00,520 --> 01:20:03,040
Speaker 1: wake up call for all of us about the folly

1455
01:20:03,080 --> 01:20:06,280
Speaker 1: of putting short term profits above literally every other thing.

1456
01:20:06,360 --> 01:20:10,080
Speaker 1: After all, these elites that David's talking about, they have

1457
01:20:10,120 --> 01:20:12,560
Speaker 1: made us dependent on Russian gas and the Chinese for

1458
01:20:12,600 --> 01:20:15,120
Speaker 1: pretty much everything else. And so through the prism of

1459
01:20:15,200 --> 01:20:18,240
Speaker 1: this conflict, let's just consider a few ways that the

1460
01:20:18,240 --> 01:20:22,720
Speaker 1: financier above all approach has left us completely exposed. Our

1461
01:20:22,720 --> 01:20:26,200
Speaker 1: first obvious vulnerability is are continued dependence on fossil fuels.

1462
01:20:26,360 --> 01:20:28,880
Speaker 1: Ken Klippenstein has been reporting for The Intercept on how

1463
01:20:28,920 --> 01:20:33,400
Speaker 1: an alliance between Saudi and Russia has been pushing gas

1464
01:20:33,439 --> 01:20:37,240
Speaker 1: prices up for US. This means that malignant regimes can

1465
01:20:37,360 --> 01:20:40,519
Speaker 1: easily hold an economic gun to our head, threatening ordinary

1466
01:20:40,560 --> 01:20:43,800
Speaker 1: Americans with price increases in job losses, not to mention

1467
01:20:43,880 --> 01:20:47,360
Speaker 1: threatening elected leaders with political disaster. It is a crime

1468
01:20:47,520 --> 01:20:49,920
Speaker 1: that the US did not, decades ago embark on a

1469
01:20:50,080 --> 01:20:53,839
Speaker 1: serious effort to dramatically reduce our dependence on fossil fuels

1470
01:20:54,000 --> 01:20:57,840
Speaker 1: through the development of renewables, including nuclear energy. And in fact,

1471
01:20:58,120 --> 01:21:00,759
Speaker 1: there is only one reason that that has not happened,

1472
01:21:01,120 --> 01:21:05,080
Speaker 1: DC's complete political capture by the oil and gas industry.

1473
01:21:05,600 --> 01:21:08,760
Speaker 1: Oil giants have spent massively over the years to fund

1474
01:21:08,760 --> 01:21:12,839
Speaker 1: climate denial, even as their own models revealed the impending

1475
01:21:12,840 --> 01:21:15,480
Speaker 1: toll of climate change as far back as the seventies.

1476
01:21:15,920 --> 01:21:19,120
Speaker 1: To this day, their lobbying and big money almost wholly

1477
01:21:19,160 --> 01:21:22,400
Speaker 1: determines our energy policy. We saw this all play out

1478
01:21:22,439 --> 01:21:24,439
Speaker 1: in real time with regards to build back Better It's

1479
01:21:24,479 --> 01:21:28,640
Speaker 1: climate provisions. In fact, a Greenpeace UK activist tricked an

1480
01:21:28,720 --> 01:21:32,800
Speaker 1: excellent lobbyist into revealing on camera exactly what their strategy

1481
01:21:32,840 --> 01:21:35,360
Speaker 1: would be to kill any efforts at a serious shift

1482
01:21:35,360 --> 01:21:38,479
Speaker 1: away from fossil fuels in it. In this video you're

1483
01:21:38,479 --> 01:21:41,400
Speaker 1: about to watch, the lobbyist brags about talking to Joe

1484
01:21:41,439 --> 01:21:47,240
Speaker 1: Manchin's office every day. Who's the crucial guys for you, well,

1485
01:21:47,320 --> 01:21:52,680
Speaker 1: Senator Capitol, who is the who chairs the Senate of

1486
01:21:52,680 --> 01:21:55,320
Speaker 1: who's the ranking member or environment of public Works? Joe

1487
01:21:55,360 --> 01:21:58,880
Speaker 1: Manchin I talked to his office every week. He is

1488
01:21:58,920 --> 01:22:02,080
Speaker 1: the king maker on this because he's a Democrat from

1489
01:22:02,120 --> 01:22:06,880
Speaker 1: West Virginia, which is very conservative state. So he is

1490
01:22:07,720 --> 01:22:11,240
Speaker 1: and he's not shy about sort of staking his claim

1491
01:22:11,400 --> 01:22:16,880
Speaker 1: early and completely change in debate, so on the Democrat

1492
01:22:17,080 --> 01:22:21,479
Speaker 1: side we look for the moderates on these issues. This

1493
01:22:21,600 --> 01:22:25,040
Speaker 1: excellent lobbyist also admits that their support for a carbon

1494
01:22:25,080 --> 01:22:27,799
Speaker 1: tax is mere greenwashing and that they are only supporting

1495
01:22:27,880 --> 01:22:30,120
Speaker 1: it because they know it will never come to pass.

1496
01:22:30,800 --> 01:22:33,960
Speaker 1: Even with their tactics exposed, Big Oil was still successful

1497
01:22:34,080 --> 01:22:37,719
Speaker 1: build back betterans, investments, and renewables are completely dead, thanks

1498
01:22:37,800 --> 01:22:41,400
Speaker 1: largely to the aforementioned Senator Mansion and those other moderates

1499
01:22:41,400 --> 01:22:43,960
Speaker 1: in Congress. Just the latest wind though for the oil

1500
01:22:44,000 --> 01:22:47,040
Speaker 1: giants who only benefit when gas prices spike, and working

1501
01:22:47,080 --> 01:22:50,320
Speaker 1: class people suffer, handing a cudgel for Russia to use

1502
01:22:50,320 --> 01:22:53,200
Speaker 1: against our population and keeping us allied with monsters like

1503
01:22:53,200 --> 01:22:57,200
Speaker 1: the Saudi regime. Money and financiers above all else winning

1504
01:22:57,240 --> 01:23:01,599
Speaker 1: the day. But our vulnerabilities go far beyond spiking oil prices.

1505
01:23:01,760 --> 01:23:05,000
Speaker 1: These financiers and their allies have also created huge choke

1506
01:23:05,040 --> 01:23:08,280
Speaker 1: points that lead to economic misery. We ship jobs and

1507
01:23:08,320 --> 01:23:11,840
Speaker 1: critical supply lines overseas, primarily of course, to Russia's load.

1508
01:23:11,920 --> 01:23:15,040
Speaker 1: Major ally in this madness China, we have also allowed

1509
01:23:15,120 --> 01:23:18,479
Speaker 1: massive consolidation to render our economy rickety and likely to

1510
01:23:18,479 --> 01:23:22,599
Speaker 1: break under any significant strain, and all for what. According

1511
01:23:22,600 --> 01:23:26,839
Speaker 1: to Daan, the trade off was clear sacrifice resiliency, wage security,

1512
01:23:26,880 --> 01:23:29,920
Speaker 1: and community for the promise of a five dollars pack

1513
01:23:30,040 --> 01:23:33,400
Speaker 1: of tube socks. We have sacrificed any semblance of self

1514
01:23:33,400 --> 01:23:36,840
Speaker 1: sufficiency and degraded our industrial capacity, all on the altar

1515
01:23:36,920 --> 01:23:39,920
Speaker 1: of profits and cheap prices, and in the end we

1516
01:23:40,080 --> 01:23:42,839
Speaker 1: didn't even get that. I don't know if you've noticed,

1517
01:23:43,080 --> 01:23:46,160
Speaker 1: prices have shot up thanks to the failures of this

1518
01:23:46,240 --> 01:23:49,720
Speaker 1: precariously architected mess. All of that means that we enter

1519
01:23:49,800 --> 01:23:52,960
Speaker 1: again into this confrontation with Russia, with our population already

1520
01:23:53,000 --> 01:23:55,840
Speaker 1: stretched the breaking point, struggling to afford the basics at

1521
01:23:55,840 --> 01:23:58,160
Speaker 1: the mercy of global shipping routes and the whims of

1522
01:23:58,240 --> 01:24:01,479
Speaker 1: Chinese leadership. I sure of our political class is so

1523
01:24:01,640 --> 01:24:04,519
Speaker 1: complete that it even impacts the tools we have at

1524
01:24:04,520 --> 01:24:07,839
Speaker 1: our disposal to respond to Russia's imperial adventures in Ukraine.

1525
01:24:08,200 --> 01:24:10,000
Speaker 1: Our partners over at the Daily Poster are up with

1526
01:24:10,000 --> 01:24:12,920
Speaker 1: the piece explaining how our ability to sanction Russian oligarchs

1527
01:24:13,200 --> 01:24:16,040
Speaker 1: is hampered by Wall Street influence. Tomorrow we're going to

1528
01:24:16,040 --> 01:24:18,160
Speaker 1: post an interview with David Soorroda that has all of

1529
01:24:18,200 --> 01:24:21,400
Speaker 1: the details there, But the TLDR is this, you can't

1530
01:24:21,400 --> 01:24:24,760
Speaker 1: sanction oligarch assets if you don't know what assets does

1531
01:24:24,760 --> 01:24:27,800
Speaker 1: Oligarch's own, and wall Street has used its influence to

1532
01:24:27,840 --> 01:24:31,320
Speaker 1: make the financial system in the US extremely opaque. This

1533
01:24:31,400 --> 01:24:35,320
Speaker 1: means that economic royalists have neutered the kind of scalpel

1534
01:24:35,400 --> 01:24:38,639
Speaker 1: that you would ideally use in this situation. The ideal

1535
01:24:38,720 --> 01:24:42,240
Speaker 1: tools for right now would exact pain on Russia's political

1536
01:24:42,320 --> 01:24:46,439
Speaker 1: and financial elites without devastating ordinary Russians, who are not

1537
01:24:46,439 --> 01:24:50,680
Speaker 1: to blame for Putin's war. Declaring economic war on ordinary Russians, though,

1538
01:24:50,760 --> 01:24:53,519
Speaker 1: is not only immoral, it is also dangerous. Right now,

1539
01:24:53,800 --> 01:24:56,760
Speaker 1: some significant segment of the Russian population is opposed to

1540
01:24:56,800 --> 01:25:00,479
Speaker 1: this war. History shows that inflicting mass suffering on that

1541
01:25:00,600 --> 01:25:03,919
Speaker 1: population is only likely to strengthen the hand of the Krumlin,

1542
01:25:04,160 --> 01:25:06,479
Speaker 1: allowing Putin and his allies to cover for their own

1543
01:25:06,520 --> 01:25:09,800
Speaker 1: failures by blaming the West with some legitimacy for the

1544
01:25:09,840 --> 01:25:13,240
Speaker 1: misery of the population. So wall Street's maneuvering in an

1545
01:25:13,280 --> 01:25:16,400
Speaker 1: effort to protect money launderers and have as little transparency

1546
01:25:16,439 --> 01:25:20,200
Speaker 1: as possible has made that outcome much more likely. But

1547
01:25:20,920 --> 01:25:23,240
Speaker 1: if you zoom ount even a little bit further, it

1548
01:25:23,320 --> 01:25:25,679
Speaker 1: is clear the reason we're in a conflict with Russia

1549
01:25:25,680 --> 01:25:28,040
Speaker 1: at all owes in large part of the capitalist market

1550
01:25:28,040 --> 01:25:31,519
Speaker 1: obsession that has dominated our domestic and foreign policy for decades.

1551
01:25:31,840 --> 01:25:34,479
Speaker 1: Our supreme dedication to capitalism, of course led us to

1552
01:25:34,520 --> 01:25:36,960
Speaker 1: a long and dangerous Cold War with the Soviet Union,

1553
01:25:37,000 --> 01:25:39,880
Speaker 1: including a massive nuclear build up on both sides. But

1554
01:25:40,040 --> 01:25:43,320
Speaker 1: even more approximately, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union,

1555
01:25:43,680 --> 01:25:46,640
Speaker 1: we helped to force brutal market reforms on Russia and

1556
01:25:46,680 --> 01:25:51,200
Speaker 1: pushed them to prioritize opening markets over building democratic institutions.

1557
01:25:51,600 --> 01:25:55,559
Speaker 1: Writing at Project Syndicate Katerina Pistor, she argues that Boris

1558
01:25:55,640 --> 01:25:59,120
Speaker 1: Yelton was pushed into a program of economic shock therapy,

1559
01:25:59,160 --> 01:26:03,559
Speaker 1: including realization and rapid privatization, by Russian reformers and their

1560
01:26:03,600 --> 01:26:07,720
Speaker 1: Western advisors. From their perspective, having to deal with any

1561
01:26:07,720 --> 01:26:10,719
Speaker 1: sort of democratic process would only slow the quote unquote

1562
01:26:10,840 --> 01:26:14,240
Speaker 1: progress and would also delay the ability of Western capitalists

1563
01:26:14,240 --> 01:26:16,760
Speaker 1: to be able to profit from the opening up of Russia.

1564
01:26:16,880 --> 01:26:20,919
Speaker 1: By choosing capitalism, she writes, over democracy as the foundation

1565
01:26:21,040 --> 01:26:25,000
Speaker 1: for the post Cold War world, the West jeopardized stability, prosperity,

1566
01:26:25,080 --> 01:26:28,360
Speaker 1: and as we now see again in Ukraine peace and democracy,

1567
01:26:28,439 --> 01:26:32,120
Speaker 1: and not only in Eastern Europe. The free market radicalism

1568
01:26:32,240 --> 01:26:34,960
Speaker 1: of our bipartisan political class and Wall Street grules is

1569
01:26:35,040 --> 01:26:39,599
Speaker 1: a serious national security threat, crippling us at home, handing

1570
01:26:39,600 --> 01:26:42,679
Speaker 1: weapons to the worst actress in the world. And guess what, guys,

1571
01:26:42,840 --> 01:26:45,080
Speaker 1: no matter how much money you have, there is no

1572
01:26:45,360 --> 01:26:49,640
Speaker 1: escaping a nuclear holocaust. I cannot help but realize the

1573
01:26:49,640 --> 01:26:52,040
Speaker 1: way that all of these factors have come together. And

1574
01:26:52,080 --> 01:26:54,799
Speaker 1: if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue,

1575
01:26:54,800 --> 01:27:01,639
Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber today at breakingpoints dot com. Guys,

1576
01:27:01,680 --> 01:27:04,880
Speaker 1: as we mentioned before, we're very excited about our live

1577
01:27:04,920 --> 01:27:07,479
Speaker 1: stream coverage of the State of the Union tonight with

1578
01:27:07,560 --> 01:27:11,840
Speaker 1: the graphic graphic let's tell the people on coming back

1579
01:27:11,880 --> 01:27:14,800
Speaker 1: and joining us here again tonight. We will kick things

1580
01:27:14,880 --> 01:27:18,280
Speaker 1: off at eight pm. We got some special guests for you.

1581
01:27:18,439 --> 01:27:22,360
Speaker 1: It's going to be Sager, Me, Kyle and Marshall. We've

1582
01:27:22,400 --> 01:27:24,559
Speaker 1: got all kinds of things pulled to show you and

1583
01:27:24,600 --> 01:27:30,000
Speaker 1: talk about. Obviously, this speech has probably changed dramatically from

1584
01:27:30,040 --> 01:27:32,800
Speaker 1: what they originally wanted it to be, and in fact,

1585
01:27:32,800 --> 01:27:35,120
Speaker 1: we have a Washington Post hairsheet here we can show you.

1586
01:27:35,760 --> 01:27:38,519
Speaker 1: They basically saying, this is not the speech that Biden

1587
01:27:38,560 --> 01:27:40,720
Speaker 1: originally wanted to give. He wanted to use the State

1588
01:27:40,760 --> 01:27:42,880
Speaker 1: of the Union to pivot to his agenda. Then Russia

1589
01:27:42,920 --> 01:27:46,160
Speaker 1: started a land war. Things changed very dynamic. I mean,

1590
01:27:46,200 --> 01:27:49,599
Speaker 1: it is interesting because they start these speeches months in advance,

1591
01:27:50,000 --> 01:27:53,880
Speaker 1: working on drafts, and according to this article, they say,

1592
01:27:53,880 --> 01:27:56,120
Speaker 1: it's not a wholesale rewrite of the address of the

1593
01:27:56,120 --> 01:27:58,680
Speaker 1: address which will be delivered at nine pm Eastern, but

1594
01:27:58,720 --> 01:28:00,760
Speaker 1: the new version will reflect the way the crisis has

1595
01:28:00,800 --> 01:28:04,559
Speaker 1: added urgency to Biden's running theme of defending democracies. According

1596
01:28:04,600 --> 01:28:08,080
Speaker 1: to one advisor who spoke on the condition of anonymity,

1597
01:28:08,360 --> 01:28:10,439
Speaker 1: there are a couple of other specifics in this article

1598
01:28:10,760 --> 01:28:14,519
Speaker 1: that are relevant in terms of the economic domestic agenda,

1599
01:28:14,560 --> 01:28:18,120
Speaker 1: because honestly, since build back better collapse, even with build

1600
01:28:18,120 --> 01:28:20,599
Speaker 1: back Better, I have never known what Joe Biden's economic

1601
01:28:20,640 --> 01:28:24,160
Speaker 1: priorities are. What do you actually want? What are your priorities?

1602
01:28:24,160 --> 01:28:25,840
Speaker 1: What are you fighting for? We still don't really know.

1603
01:28:25,920 --> 01:28:28,759
Speaker 1: But anyway, they say he's going to call on Congress

1604
01:28:28,800 --> 01:28:32,080
Speaker 1: to increase the maximum pelgrid award by two thousand dollars. Oooh,

1605
01:28:32,280 --> 01:28:35,679
Speaker 1: big deal. Raise Raise, the federal minum wage to fifteen

1606
01:28:35,720 --> 01:28:38,400
Speaker 1: dollars an hour, something they have no plan in order

1607
01:28:38,439 --> 01:28:41,560
Speaker 1: to actually do create a national paid family leave program.

1608
01:28:41,840 --> 01:28:44,519
Speaker 1: Maybe you could get that through on a standalone vote. Possible,

1609
01:28:44,560 --> 01:28:47,400
Speaker 1: I don't know. They said. He will also address how

1610
01:28:47,400 --> 01:28:51,160
Speaker 1: any new plans would be paid for. And this part,

1611
01:28:51,280 --> 01:28:54,080
Speaker 1: you know, sort of raised my eyebrows, which is they said.

1612
01:28:54,120 --> 01:28:56,759
Speaker 1: One person familiar with it said the speech appeared designed

1613
01:28:56,760 --> 01:29:02,040
Speaker 1: to appeal to moderate Democrats, independent and never Trump Republicans. Okay,

1614
01:29:02,080 --> 01:29:03,760
Speaker 1: all right, that gonna be anything in it for us.

1615
01:29:04,160 --> 01:29:05,920
Speaker 1: The one thing he's going to have to focus on

1616
01:29:06,040 --> 01:29:07,840
Speaker 1: is going to be inflation. Let's put this up there,

1617
01:29:08,280 --> 01:29:11,280
Speaker 1: so they said yesterday Jensaki, the President will use the

1618
01:29:11,320 --> 01:29:14,200
Speaker 1: word inflation tomorrow saying it's a major concern, and he's

1619
01:29:14,200 --> 01:29:17,160
Speaker 1: going to focus on efforts to reduce costs. So we'll see.

1620
01:29:17,200 --> 01:29:19,920
Speaker 1: It's not all rosy news though. Per the Huffington Post,

1621
01:29:20,080 --> 01:29:23,280
Speaker 1: Biden's going to be focusing on deficit reduction. Let's put

1622
01:29:23,280 --> 01:29:26,200
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. And they are ditching

1623
01:29:26,320 --> 01:29:29,479
Speaker 1: officially the Build Back Better brand. I mean, look, that

1624
01:29:29,600 --> 01:29:33,040
Speaker 1: was obviously that was obviously going to die. It was

1625
01:29:33,160 --> 01:29:35,960
Speaker 1: very clear I honestly don't think a single thing he

1626
01:29:35,960 --> 01:29:38,840
Speaker 1: says on domestic politics matters tomorrow tonight. I just don't

1627
01:29:39,240 --> 01:29:42,000
Speaker 1: given Ukraine. I don't see it, I will say so.

1628
01:29:42,040 --> 01:29:44,960
Speaker 1: The headline of that Huffington Post piece made me want

1629
01:29:44,960 --> 01:29:47,920
Speaker 1: a puke about like he's shipped deficit reduction. The details

1630
01:29:47,960 --> 01:29:50,240
Speaker 1: were a little less bad because the deficit reduction he's

1631
01:29:50,280 --> 01:29:52,920
Speaker 1: talking about is like taxing rich people in corporations. I

1632
01:29:52,920 --> 01:29:54,960
Speaker 1: don't know why you did then sell it as that right,

1633
01:29:55,760 --> 01:29:58,519
Speaker 1: because that is popular right. But you know he wants

1634
01:29:58,560 --> 01:30:01,400
Speaker 1: to use this like death is at hawk framing, which

1635
01:30:01,439 --> 01:30:04,040
Speaker 1: is irritating. There was one good thing also in the

1636
01:30:04,080 --> 01:30:06,640
Speaker 1: Washington Post hairsheet. They said an early draft of the

1637
01:30:06,640 --> 01:30:09,240
Speaker 1: speech included support for an effort to restrict members of

1638
01:30:09,240 --> 01:30:12,639
Speaker 1: Congress from trading individual stocks. We'll see if that makes

1639
01:30:12,680 --> 01:30:15,080
Speaker 1: it in. That would be interesting and that would be significant.

1640
01:30:15,160 --> 01:30:18,120
Speaker 1: And Biden, apparently the entire time he was in the

1641
01:30:18,160 --> 01:30:21,960
Speaker 1: Senate had this rule personally for himself. He did not

1642
01:30:22,080 --> 01:30:24,080
Speaker 1: buy in trade stocks. That was like a commitment he

1643
01:30:24,120 --> 01:30:26,400
Speaker 1: made when he was elected at twenty nine years old

1644
01:30:26,680 --> 01:30:28,880
Speaker 1: that he kept his entire time in the Senate. So

1645
01:30:28,920 --> 01:30:33,640
Speaker 1: he has some credibility on this issue. But listen, obviously

1646
01:30:33,840 --> 01:30:35,559
Speaker 1: the big news is going to be about what he

1647
01:30:35,640 --> 01:30:40,400
Speaker 1: says with regards to Russia and Ukraine and foreign policy,

1648
01:30:40,479 --> 01:30:42,920
Speaker 1: and this is ultimately going to be a very different

1649
01:30:43,040 --> 01:30:47,880
Speaker 1: speech in a very different context than what we originally expected. Also,

1650
01:30:47,920 --> 01:30:52,240
Speaker 1: a little update for you on the trucker protest. Yes, yeah,

1651
01:30:52,439 --> 01:30:55,000
Speaker 1: didn't happen. Well, okay, I don't want to say they

1652
01:30:55,000 --> 01:30:58,800
Speaker 1: didn't happen, but we are here in DC. There's no

1653
01:30:58,920 --> 01:31:03,519
Speaker 1: sign of the way Bulla Constrictors shut down. They did

1654
01:31:03,600 --> 01:31:06,240
Speaker 1: so in spite of the fact that the big con

1655
01:31:06,439 --> 01:31:08,839
Speaker 1: the supposedly big convoy that got a lot of attention,

1656
01:31:09,120 --> 01:31:11,719
Speaker 1: they actually fully disbanded because there were only five trucks

1657
01:31:11,760 --> 01:31:15,880
Speaker 1: left in it to join other potential theoretical convoys that

1658
01:31:15,920 --> 01:31:17,200
Speaker 1: are out there. So I don't want to say there's

1659
01:31:17,200 --> 01:31:21,679
Speaker 1: nobody involved, but there was clearly a massive, like national

1660
01:31:21,720 --> 01:31:26,000
Speaker 1: security state freak out over. Yeah, the National Guard all

1661
01:31:26,280 --> 01:31:30,640
Speaker 1: over this fence, calling of the nest Guard, all of

1662
01:31:30,680 --> 01:31:33,960
Speaker 1: this stuff, like, you know, total freak out over something

1663
01:31:33,960 --> 01:31:35,840
Speaker 1: that doesn't look to have amounted too much. So we'll

1664
01:31:35,880 --> 01:31:37,479
Speaker 1: keep our eye on that. Great. Well, I hope they're

1665
01:31:37,520 --> 01:31:40,000
Speaker 1: all well fed and they're doing well while they're here

1666
01:31:40,160 --> 01:31:42,599
Speaker 1: and doing literally nothing, and we're all paying for it.

1667
01:31:42,640 --> 01:31:44,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, great. Oh I did you see on my

1668
01:31:44,920 --> 01:31:47,640
Speaker 1: way in? I saw some random like military vehicles in

1669
01:31:47,640 --> 01:31:50,320
Speaker 1: the streets, the same thing. I saw trucks all along

1670
01:31:50,320 --> 01:31:52,679
Speaker 1: the highway, that type of stuff, par for the course

1671
01:31:52,840 --> 01:31:55,920
Speaker 1: nation's capital. Yep, there you go, but go away. Yeah,

1672
01:31:55,960 --> 01:31:58,479
Speaker 1: we want to see you tonight eight pm. So join

1673
01:31:58,560 --> 01:32:00,360
Speaker 1: us then. Thanks for watching us today. That's right, and

1674
01:32:00,479 --> 01:32:02,240
Speaker 1: we're gonna have a special guests tonight. Tune in for that.

1675
01:32:02,520 --> 01:32:05,160
Speaker 1: It's gonna be fun. Indeed, all right, I think that's it. Yep,

1676
01:32:05,200 --> 01:32:06,160
Speaker 1: see you this evening, guys,