WEBVTT - Iran Revolution-Why this is Different...Trump is not Obama 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:03.600 Welcome. It is Verdict with Center Ted Cruz. It is 0:00:03.600 --> 0:00:05.520 so nice to have you with us and Centaer. We've 0:00:05.559 --> 0:00:09.280 got a big show today. First off, Iran and President 0:00:09.320 --> 0:00:11.320 Trump's speaking out in a very bold way. 0:00:11.480 --> 0:00:14.800 Well, this week is momentous and that millions of Iranians 0:00:14.840 --> 0:00:18.080 continue to stand up and fight to overthrow the Ayahtola, 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:21.759 to overthrow the Mullahs, the radical Islamist who have dominated 0:00:21.840 --> 0:00:25.040 that country for five decades. And President Trump has come 0:00:25.040 --> 0:00:28.360 out unequivocally in support of the protesters. And just this 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:31.120 week he came out and said it is time for 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:34.360 a new government in Iran. The Ayahtola needs to go. 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:38.320 That is enormously consequential. We're going to break down why 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:40.480 he said, what he did, what it means, and what's 0:00:40.479 --> 0:00:41.440 going to happen next. 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:44.600 Yeah, it really is an important story. I want to 0:00:44.640 --> 0:00:47.800 also reminds you about an incredible organization, our friends at 0:00:47.800 --> 0:00:52.120 Compassion International. Right now, somewhere in the world, a kid 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:55.600 you've never met is writing you a letter. 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So, Center 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:07.240 Sunday Morning, I was watching CBS like Sunday Morning, their 0:02:07.280 --> 0:02:10.440 show it with Jane Pawley, and they were reminding people 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:14.040 that Tuesday is one year since President Trump will be 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:17.680 in office, and they were talking about this and they 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:21.359 were also comparing it, saying that Donald Trump has gone 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:24.119 so rogue on the world stage now, and they had 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:28.119 a historian on to say, well, most countries don't make 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:31.480 it to two hundred and fifty years with a democracy 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:35.440 and freedom, and so they were clearly implying that this 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:37.519 is that two hundred and fifty year anniversary. We probably 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:40.520 won't make it there by July because Donald Trump's gone 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:42.880 so rogue. And I laugh because I'm like, this guy 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:46.919 is so clearly transparent and what he wants to do 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:49.680 and what the voters told him to do. Iran as 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:51.800 another example of that, you don't have to guess. He 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:53.840 has said what our state admission is. 0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:57.480 Well, I got to say. Your first mistake is what 0:02:57.520 --> 0:03:00.760 on earth will you doing watching CBS this morning? I 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:05.160 was on, I was on Maria Bartiromo, but apparently I'm 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:08.480 Chop Liver and so you weren't interested in watching me. 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:10.480 You instead wanted. 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:13.600 To commies were peddling out there. 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:17.360 Look, you wanted to listen to COMMI historians lie and 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:21.440 say democracy died the day the American people elected Donald Trump. 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:24.639 By the way, they think democracy died any time the 0:03:24.760 --> 0:03:29.400 voters don't elect left wing radical democrats. You know, it 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:31.840 reminds me of a Nigo Montoya and the Princess Bride 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:34.720 when it comes to democracy, you keep on using that word. 0:03:34.760 --> 0:03:36.480 I do not think it means what you think it means. 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:42.000 Like their definition of democracy is not what you actually 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:45.200 would get looking in the dictionary, which is the people voting. 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:48.800 And actually pure democracy is the people voting and choosing 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:51.520 the policies that will govern their country. We don't have 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:54.120 a pure democracy. We have a republic. What is a republic. 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:59.040 A republic is where the people vote to elect their representatives. 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:01.920 So the people are not voting on should our top 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:06.520 marginal tax rate be thirty six percent or fifty percent 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:10.560 or ten percent. That would be direct democracy, but instead 0:04:11.360 --> 0:04:14.160 we have You could call it a democratic republic because 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:18.360 it is a republic where democracy operates to elect our representatives. 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:24.920 But when people use democracy capital d they usually mean 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:28.920 that the voters get to decide. But that's not how 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:32.520 democrats use it, that's not how the media use it. Instead, 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:37.160 what they mean by democracy is socialists and Marxists are 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:39.839 in power, and by the way, they're perfectly happy to 0:04:39.960 --> 0:04:44.119 ignore the voters if it keeps them in power. Let's 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:48.279 focus on I ran for a moment because listen, and 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:50.080 we've talked about this on the pod in the last 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:53.040 couple of weeks. I really do think we're in a 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:59.279 momentous moment like unlike anything we have seen since the 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:02.760 late nineteen in the eighties, the early nineteen nineties. We're 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:07.479 in a moment where three of the most viciously anti 0:05:07.560 --> 0:05:13.839 American regimes across the planet, Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba. In 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:16.120 the next six months, we could see all three of 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:20.479 those regimes fall, and we could also see free and 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:24.279 fair elections and all three of them. And if that happens, 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:26.680 I think there is a real possibility that they will 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:31.440 elect democratically elect going back to big D democracy. The voters, 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:35.280 I believe there's a real possibility will elect leaders who 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:40.400 will defend free markets, defend freedom, and critically stop waging 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:43.160 war on America and make the choice to be friends 0:05:43.160 --> 0:05:47.520 with America. If that happens, it will be the most 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:52.360 consequential change on the global stage since the fall of 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:56.120 the Berlin Wall, since Ronald Reagan and America won the 0:05:56.120 --> 0:05:58.320 Cold War. And we did that without firing a shot. 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:01.800 That changed the entire globe, and we could see in 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:05.279 twenty twenty six a change. Every bit is significant. Now, 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:09.520 let me be clear, there are a thousand ways for 0:06:09.600 --> 0:06:13.760 things to go wrong in Iran, in Venezuela, in Cuba. 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:16.719 So and what we do know for certainty is it 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:19.480 will not be smooth and without challenges. We know that 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:24.960 to an absolute certainty. Expect the unexpected. That being said, 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:28.960 President Trump came out this week and he explicitly said 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:32.120 it is time for a new government in Iran. He 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:35.080 had never said that before, throughout the first term, throughout 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:39.360 this term until right now, he had explicitly not gone 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:43.680 so far as to embrace quote regime change. Now, Ben, 0:06:43.720 --> 0:06:46.800 you'll remember what was it six seven months ago when 0:06:46.839 --> 0:06:51.400 I did Tucker Carlson Show. He started by peripatetically freaking 0:06:51.400 --> 0:06:55.160 out and saying, my god, Cruz, you're for regime change 0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:57.359 in Iran. And he had a heart attack, and then 0:06:57.360 --> 0:07:02.359 he began laughing maniacally, which he does a lot. The 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:07.400 odd thing is, I think any rational American should be 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:11.600 wont to see regime change. If you ask yourself, is 0:07:11.640 --> 0:07:15.760 America better off if the leader of Iran is not 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:22.720 a crazy religious nut, an Islamist radical who chance death 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:27.320 to America, to kill, who chance death to America, who 0:07:27.440 --> 0:07:30.000 murders and tortures his own people. Who is the biggest 0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:33.320 funder of terrorism on planet Earth, who provides more than 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:35.800 ninety percent of the funding to Hamas, who provides more 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:38.720 than ninety percent of the funding to Hesbela, who is 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:44.679 responsible for killing hundreds, if not thousands, of Americans. Like unequivocally, 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:49.480 America would be better off if the Ayatola was no 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:53.360 longer the leader of Iran. Now, part of the reason 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:56.760 why the words regime change have a stigma connected to them, 0:07:57.360 --> 0:08:01.120 it is many remembered the Iraq War, Remember the George W. 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:06.040 Bush administration, where regime change justified sending hundreds of thousands 0:08:06.040 --> 0:08:09.440 of American troops to spend years fighting in a distant war. 0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:11.160 And they don't want to see that. And by the way, 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:13.440 I don't want to see that. I think the Iraq 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:16.000 War was a mistake. I have said that for a 0:08:16.080 --> 0:08:20.000 long long time. So when I say I support regime change, 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:21.920 it doesn't mean I want to send hundreds of thousands 0:08:21.920 --> 0:08:25.320 of American troops onto the ground in Iran. What it 0:08:25.480 --> 0:08:29.560 means is it is unequivocally in our interest to see 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:33.079 the Iatola fall. I think the Iatola's fall ought to 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:36.920 be driven primarily by the Iranian people, and it's why 0:08:36.960 --> 0:08:40.960 this uprising is so consequential because it is Iranians who 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:46.679 are risking their lives to overturn this regime, this dictatorship. 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:50.080 But President Trump, I think is doing a good job 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:55.320 of number one, making clear that America stands with the people, 0:08:55.440 --> 0:08:59.319 stands with the protesters, and threatening accountability and what is 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:01.920 accountability look like like. He has made clear to the 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:04.800 government of Iran if you just sit there and begin 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:09.600 massacring the protesters, there will be real consequences. He hasn't 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:12.320 specified what they are, but the clear implication is the 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:16.960 consequences will be military and nature. That deterrence, by the way, 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:21.080 military and nature is not send hundreds of thousands of 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:23.760 troops to the ground, but it may well be bombed 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:27.560 the crap out of something like there is And hopefully 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:29.199 that is a. 0:09:29.240 --> 0:09:32.240 They are remembering the ran nuclear sites that we just 0:09:32.320 --> 0:09:35.199 hit doing the impossible mission. Yep. And I do think 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:37.640 that's part of terms calculus, Like if you don't believe me, 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:40.880 just go look at your nuclear sites. Don't don't don't 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:44.880 test me here. Don't think I won't do this right? 0:09:45.040 --> 0:09:49.160 And look, you combine President Trump taking out the Iranian 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:52.160 nuclear facilities, and you combine it with the raid and 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:58.360 arrest on Maduro, two incredibly audacious national security steps massively 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:02.599 improve the national security of America. Both were incredible successes. 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:05.880 And in Iran, Israel has already taken out their air defenses. 0:10:05.920 --> 0:10:08.320 Their air defenses are essentially non existence. 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:08.560 Now. 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:11.880 Any time you engage in military action there is a risk. 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:16.400 I mean, we could have casualties, but Iran is in 0:10:16.440 --> 0:10:21.960 a markedly wicked, weakened position, and so that threat is consequential. 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:24.280 I also hope and I believe, and I don't have 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:27.360 any classified information on this, so I'm not revealing anything, 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:30.000 but I hope and believe there's quite a bit that 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:33.360 is happening under the surface that we're not seeing in 0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:36.520 terms of covert activities. I hope we're doing everything humanly 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:40.440 possible to help and support the protesters so that they 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:43.480 can overthrow the government, not us, but them. But we 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:51.640 can be contrasted to what happened when Barack Obama was president, 0:10:52.760 --> 0:10:54.680 and I want to actually I want to compare the 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:58.320 two and give you that contrast. So there was an 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:03.560 article in Tablet magazine several days ago, and it's called 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:07.400 is this Time Different? In Iran? By an author named 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:10.000 Peter throw and here's what he said. I want to 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:12.120 read this at some length because I think it's really 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:16.120 quite interesting and profound. In two thousand and nine, what 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:19.079 shocked me about President Barack Obama's lack of support for 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:22.559 the Green Movement protesters in Iran was the failure to 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:26.600 launch of the Commander in Chief's colossal ego. Here were 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:29.480 thousands of young Iranians filling the streets of Tehran to 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:35.160 appeal to him, even with a wistful pawn on his name. Obama, 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:40.720 Bama Bashid Obama be with us. Anyone in government at 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:43.320 the time knew that the Chicago un lacked nothing in 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:45.880 the way of ruthlessness, though he tended to save it 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:49.960 for republicans of the non Islamic variety. He applied the 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:54.240 word enemy to the GOP, but never to the Mullahs. 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:58.360 If righteous anger at the regime's murder of dissidence didn't 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:01.880 meet the threshold for Chicago rules, I thought surely vanity 0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:05.160 might do the job. But opening to Iran had been 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:08.120 an early theme of his presidency. That same year, with 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:11.880 a mushy Persian New Year message and a secret letter 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:17.200 to Supreme Leader Ali Kameni of whom he knew little. Quote. 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:21.160 Despite his title of Supreme Leader, Kameni's authority wasn't absolute. 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:25.160 Obama preposterously intoned in his memoir of Promised Land in 0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:28.840 twenty twenty, quote, he had to confer with a powerful 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:32.960 council of clerics, the Guardian's council. Referring to the clerics, 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:39.079 journalist Kareem Sajjapur observed that their average age is deceased. 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:45.200 Obama continued, that's pretty funny. Obama continued, quote, my first 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:49.439 impulse was to express strong support for the demonstrators, Obama 0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:52.880 records further in that memoir. But when I gathered my 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:58.000 national security team, are Iran experts advised against such a move. 0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:01.760 According to them, any statement for me would likely backfire. 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:05.000 Activists inside Iran fear that supportive statements from the US 0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:09.040 government would be seized upon to discredit their movement. 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:10.600 That's amazing. 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:13.760 The latter statement was ridiculous on its face, as the 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:18.640 demonstrators were openly pleading for outside support and from him specifically. 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:22.280 He may have been ignorant about how Ronald Reagan's harsh 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:26.680 anti Moscow rhetoric boosted the morale of imprisoned dissidence like 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:32.200 Datan Sharansky. But what of that national security team? Obama 0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:34.760 does not name them, but his administration would become known 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:39.640 for high level sentimentalists towards Iran, Rob Malley, Samantha Power, 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:45.560 Philip Gordon, sahir Naurazadree, and the diplomatic weaklings who would 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:50.080 negotiate the nuclear deal. So Obama issued a series of 0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:55.319 statements that he himself would describe as quote bland, bureaucratic, 0:13:56.320 --> 0:14:00.360 and passive. Bitter that quote, I had to listen to 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:05.480 Republicans how that I was coddling a murderous regime. Actually 0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:08.600 he was six years away from truly coddling it. Our 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:12.080 cerebral leader lamented that as president, quote, my heart was 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:16.640 now chained to strategic considerations and tactical analysis, my conviction 0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:20.840 subject to counterintuitive arguments that in the most powerful office 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.560 on Earth, I had less freedom to say what I 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:26.240 meant and act on what I felt than I had 0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:29.720 as a senator. In other words, what passed for his 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:35.600 convictions were easily defeated by an America bad briefing from 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:40.160 his subordinates. Now it goes on to say, numbers are 0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:43.800 still inexact, but Tehran's thugs made about four thousand arrests 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:47.760 and killed hundreds to quell the two thousand and nine demonstration. 0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:51.920 The Green Movements leaders were jailed globally, dissidents of all stripes, 0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:55.000 and even Madonna and U two spoke out in favor 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:57.400 of Iranian democracy. By the way, where are Madonna and 0:14:57.440 --> 0:15:00.560 you two right now? That's an interesting question. Was it 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:04.400 a bitter pill for a cool cat like Obama not 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.320 to be in that club? I suspect not, as he 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:12.080 harbored some sentimentality towards the Islamic Republic, having stated in 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:14.080 his first letter to its leader, as well as in 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:18.240 his tape video message on the occasion of Norah's the 0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:22.000 Persian New Year, that he sought normalization with the state 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:26.400 sponsor of terror, a long step beyond better hope, hoping 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:29.360 for better relations with a Ran someday, as you might 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:30.520 do in a holiday. 0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:33.800 Greeting, Sinta, I just gotta stop. And I do love 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:36.840 the revisionist history from Barack Obama. He's like, hey, I 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:39.320 wanted to stay with the people at Iran, but my 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:43.040 team told me not to. So therefore that's why I 0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:46.320 didn't do it. Leaders lead like straight up. Leaders lead, 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:48.840 You lead that you're at the front of the ship. 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:52.240 You're in charge. It's it's supposed to be your foreign policy. 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:54.600 And then you look at what he actually did with 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.720 Iran and you understand he was aiding in a betting 0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:01.440 and helping them stay on top in Iran. Like, let's 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.200 just be clear, we sent them money. Yeah. 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:08.920 Yeah, Look to understand leader's lead. And by the way 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.640 Obama was leading. Obama was leading. There is there's practically 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:15.200 not an Islamist on planet Earth that he didn't coddle, 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:16.480 embrace and send money. 0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:19.480 True, it was right right when he got elected. Remember 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:21.680 it was all about the buzzom world in a reset. 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:24.440 And by the way, when he was brand new in office, 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:27.000 he flew to as president, he flew to Cairo, to 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:28.840 the University of Cairo, and he gave a speech where 0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:31.640 he said Iran has a right and he used the 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:35.280 word right to nuclear weapons nuclear technology. Actually didn't say weapons, 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:39.080 he said nuclear technology technology. That was absurd. And so 0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:43.000 his claiming to be reluctant, I think is a brazen lie. 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:46.080 This is his ideology. And by the way, it came 0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:48.840 to full flower under the Biden White House. And I 0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:51.200 think the history for a lot of folks that may 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:53.640 not remember what was happening. Look, two thousand and nine 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:58.360 was sixteen seventeen years ago, was a long time ago. Yeah, 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:01.320 let me jump forward because the question then is okay, 0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:04.720 what's different now? And let me jump forward to this article. 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:08.560 I think it's a really insightful article. So, after two 0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:11.959 weeks of the largest nationwide demonstrations in Iran since the 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:16.560 Islamic Revolution, what has changed and why? It has nothing 0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:21.680 to do with negotiating tables and lots to do with battlespace. First, 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:25.520 let's note that this month's huge anti regime demonstrations in 0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:30.080 more than one hundred Iranian cities were not ignited by 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:33.879 a single big domestic event like a blatantly stolen election 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:36.880 or the murder of an innocent young woman. The Iranian 0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:40.280 real has been crashing, passed a million to the dollar. 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:45.000 Let me say that again, one pasted one million to 0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:49.400 a dollar. That's their exchange rate for weeks, and inflation 0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:54.040 reached the point where the Tehran Bazaar was losing money 0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:59.280 on every transaction, so it closed everything else. 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:03.160 Every transaction. Just imagine having a story and everything you're 0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:05.520 selling you're losing money on how would you stay in business. 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:06.520 That's why they closed down. 0:18:06.560 --> 0:18:10.800 It's incredible because hyperinflation. If the value of the rial 0:18:10.960 --> 0:18:14.639 falls day after day after day, you sell something for 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:17.040 five million real and then the next day that five 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:18.920 million real is worth a fraction of what it was 0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:22.640 worth the day before. That's why they closed. Something else 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:25.639 drove the following events such as the South Pars energy 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:30.959 strike and reported military affections. The battle space started shaping 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:34.320 up six years ago this month under Trump, with the 0:18:34.440 --> 0:18:38.320 US killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps kud's forced 0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:42.679 commander Kassam Salamani, the second most powerful man in Iran, 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:47.080 by US drones at Baghdad Airport. He had just arrived 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:50.800 from Damascus, where he was briefing former Syrian president Bashar 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:54.919 al Assad on a plan to attack the US embassy 0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:58.080 in Baghdad as it had been done in Tehran in 0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:05.560 nineteen seventy nine. Iran's Iraqi katspaw Abu Madi al Mahandis 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:10.040 and ten senior Iranian briefers and bodyguards were also killed 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:15.720 in the strike. After twenty years a Bush, Obama and 0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:23.200 Biden kid gloves, Tehran was legitimately frightened, and then after 0:19:23.240 --> 0:19:27.120 the Tehran directed atrocity against Israel in October twenty twenty three, 0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:35.600 Israel killed Yaha Sinwar, mohammadif Hasrand, Nosrala, Ibrahima kil Hashim 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:43.679 Safedin and Ismail Haniya, added IRGC safehouse in Tehran and 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:48.320 almost one hundred more in Lebanon and Gaza. Deprived of 0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:54.159 its decapitated Hezbela Pratorian guard, the Syrian bath Party didn't 0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:59.520 trust its own people any more than the Bolavarian Maduro 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:05.520 trusted Venezuelans more than Cubans. The criminal Assad family fled 0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:10.160 to Moscow. Then last summer, the Israelian US air forces 0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:13.520 wiped out much of the Iranian military's general staff and 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:19.159 key nuclear sites. The pro Tehran, Moscow and Beijing dominoes 0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:23.040 continue to fall. With the capture of Nicholas Maduro, the 0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:27.120 massacre of his Cuban protection detail, the seizure of Russian 0:20:27.160 --> 0:20:30.840 ghost ships, and the spread of Starlik terminals in Iran, 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:35.359 Iranians have seen the regime and its backers exposed and 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:39.480 humiliated by an American administration, and they were quick to 0:20:39.560 --> 0:20:45.120 exploit this roll of the dice. Unlike Prohamas nihilists from 0:20:45.160 --> 0:20:49.760 Berkeley to Dublin. They have hit their streets in millions 0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:57.720 without a single kefia or aluja Akbar, motivated by American 0:20:57.880 --> 0:21:03.800 successes against their regime and its effeckless backers. At the 0:21:03.840 --> 0:21:07.160 time of writing, the regime has turned off the Internet 0:21:07.359 --> 0:21:11.919 and all landlines, and Kameni has engaged emerged from a 0:21:11.960 --> 0:21:16.120 two day silence to express defiance. This is no surprise 0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:20.359 to anyone who knows that Kameni's greatest fear is moderation 0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:25.200 that causes the regime to bend and then break, as 0:21:25.280 --> 0:21:29.679 expressed in Alex Vatanka's The Battle of the Iyatolas in Iran, 0:21:30.600 --> 0:21:36.160 Kameni became obsessed with the prospect of an Iranian Gorbachev 0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:41.440 who would impose reforms and usher in a USSR style collapse. 0:21:42.400 --> 0:21:45.440 The more so because this was addressed by Tom Friedman, 0:21:45.480 --> 0:21:48.960 a Jewish American journalist, in a nineteen ninety six column 0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:56.439 titled Waiting for Iyatola Gorbachev after he visited Iran that 0:21:56.600 --> 0:22:01.840 pressed all of the leader's buttons, his defiance to continue 0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:06.160 as long as he is alive or in power, which 0:22:06.200 --> 0:22:09.560 may not be long, and listen to this because he 0:22:09.640 --> 0:22:13.840 faces two threats. The one in front of him is 0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:17.160 the unpredictable Donald Trump, who has already shed Iranian blood 0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:21.399 and has promised to rescue the Iranian people. The one 0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:26.760 behind him is the IRGC, which holds all the firepower 0:22:26.760 --> 0:22:30.960 in Iran, and which knows, as Mohammed am Dinijad do, 0:22:31.760 --> 0:22:36.800 that the Mallahs are despised by nearly the entire population. 0:22:37.880 --> 0:22:40.160 They are unlikely to lay down their guns or give 0:22:40.240 --> 0:22:43.400 up the forty percent of the Iranian economy they control. 0:22:43.640 --> 0:22:48.639 They are led by Ahmed Vahiti and internationally sanctioned terrorists. 0:22:49.359 --> 0:22:54.800 Quote terrorists are acts was a wise saying of one 0:22:54.800 --> 0:22:58.119 of my counter terrorist colleagues at the CIA. She didn't 0:22:58.160 --> 0:23:01.639 just mean that terror plots ruined our weekends and sleep schedules. 0:23:02.119 --> 0:23:06.760 She meant that terrorists are psychopathic, disloyal, and venal creatures 0:23:07.320 --> 0:23:10.159 who could and did mistreated each other and turn against 0:23:10.240 --> 0:23:14.640 each other. The top ranks of the IRGC are full 0:23:14.680 --> 0:23:17.920 of them, and this is the final point what might 0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:22.280 lead the IRGC to sideline or overthrow Kameeni and his 0:23:22.440 --> 0:23:30.080 weak president Masud Pezeshkian. Two kinds of strike, an anti 0:23:30.160 --> 0:23:34.080 regime blow from the United States or the labor variety 0:23:34.119 --> 0:23:40.399 that would shut down Iranians Iran's energy sector if both occur, 0:23:41.280 --> 0:23:46.679 my money is on a coup and goodbye Mullahs. And 0:23:46.760 --> 0:23:49.879 this is from Peter Thurreau, spent twenty years in the 0:23:49.960 --> 0:23:52.920 US government and the CIA. I got to say, look, 0:23:52.960 --> 0:23:56.440 I appreciated that that article because it provides a level 0:23:56.440 --> 0:24:02.240 of context and detail, drawing a real difference between what 0:24:02.480 --> 0:24:05.800 happens when you have a weak pro Islamist president like 0:24:05.840 --> 0:24:08.040 Barack Obama or for that matter, Joe Biden in the 0:24:08.040 --> 0:24:12.320 White House versus a strong pro America president like Donald Trump, 0:24:12.680 --> 0:24:15.840 and I think the terrain is totally different, which is why, 0:24:15.880 --> 0:24:19.560 by the way, Trump is saying to the protesters, keep 0:24:19.600 --> 0:24:21.919 a list of the names of any soldiers who are 0:24:21.960 --> 0:24:25.719 committing atrocities, because there is going to be accountability. That 0:24:25.840 --> 0:24:28.680 carrot and stick is really powerful for deterring that kind 0:24:28.720 --> 0:24:29.600 of horrific action. 0:24:30.440 --> 0:24:32.800 You know, there's part of this article, and I think 0:24:32.840 --> 0:24:36.000 we should talk about this for a moment, because there 0:24:36.119 --> 0:24:37.879 is I had at dinner the other night with some 0:24:38.200 --> 0:24:40.760 oil executives and they were frustrated a little bit because 0:24:40.760 --> 0:24:43.639 the price of oil has come down, and one of 0:24:43.640 --> 0:24:46.160 the people at the table was also White House, and 0:24:46.200 --> 0:24:50.080 they said, what you don't understand is that our energy 0:24:50.119 --> 0:24:54.040 inpendent's policy is also a national security policy because when 0:24:54.080 --> 0:24:56.920 you take away the money that is to the leadership 0:24:56.960 --> 0:25:01.639 in Iran, to Vladimir Putin in Russia. Venezuela is another 0:25:01.720 --> 0:25:06.040 example of this, right, then what the money that they 0:25:06.080 --> 0:25:09.040 need to survive and to hold on to power and 0:25:09.119 --> 0:25:11.840 to pay their forces to keep them in power and 0:25:11.920 --> 0:25:16.720 to go after their citizens just completely disappears. That is 0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:18.639 part of I think what Donald Trump, and it was 0:25:18.720 --> 0:25:20.560 very interesting to hear this kind of back and forth. 0:25:20.560 --> 0:25:22.960 There's like, hey, I'm sorry that the price of per 0:25:22.960 --> 0:25:25.040 barrel is not where you want it, but it's helping 0:25:25.080 --> 0:25:28.439