Speaker 1: Welcome. It is Verdict with Center Ted Cruz. It is
Speaker 1: so nice to have you with us and Centaer. We've
Speaker 1: got a big show today. First off, Iran and President
Speaker 1: Trump's speaking out in a very bold way.
Speaker 2: Well, this week is momentous and that millions of Iranians
Speaker 2: continue to stand up and fight to overthrow the Ayahtola,
Speaker 2: to overthrow the Mullahs, the radical Islamist who have dominated
Speaker 2: that country for five decades. And President Trump has come
Speaker 2: out unequivocally in support of the protesters. And just this
Speaker 2: week he came out and said it is time for
Speaker 2: a new government in Iran. The Ayahtola needs to go.
Speaker 2: That is enormously consequential. We're going to break down why
Speaker 2: he said, what he did, what it means, and what's
Speaker 2: going to happen next.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is an important story. I want to
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Speaker 1: dot com. That's Compassion dot com. All right. So, Center
Speaker 1: Sunday Morning, I was watching CBS like Sunday Morning, their
Speaker 1: show it with Jane Pawley, and they were reminding people
Speaker 1: that Tuesday is one year since President Trump will be
Speaker 1: in office, and they were talking about this and they
Speaker 1: were also comparing it, saying that Donald Trump has gone
Speaker 1: so rogue on the world stage now, and they had
Speaker 1: a historian on to say, well, most countries don't make
Speaker 1: it to two hundred and fifty years with a democracy
Speaker 1: and freedom, and so they were clearly implying that this
Speaker 1: is that two hundred and fifty year anniversary. We probably
Speaker 1: won't make it there by July because Donald Trump's gone
Speaker 1: so rogue. And I laugh because I'm like, this guy
Speaker 1: is so clearly transparent and what he wants to do
Speaker 1: and what the voters told him to do. Iran as
Speaker 1: another example of that, you don't have to guess. He
Speaker 1: has said what our state admission is.
Speaker 2: Well, I got to say. Your first mistake is what
Speaker 2: on earth will you doing watching CBS this morning? I
Speaker 2: was on, I was on Maria Bartiromo, but apparently I'm
Speaker 2: Chop Liver and so you weren't interested in watching me.
Speaker 2: You instead wanted.
Speaker 1: To commies were peddling out there.
Speaker 2: Look, you wanted to listen to COMMI historians lie and
Speaker 2: say democracy died the day the American people elected Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: By the way, they think democracy died any time the
Speaker 2: voters don't elect left wing radical democrats. You know, it
Speaker 2: reminds me of a Nigo Montoya and the Princess Bride
Speaker 2: when it comes to democracy, you keep on using that word.
Speaker 2: I do not think it means what you think it means.
Speaker 2: Like their definition of democracy is not what you actually
Speaker 2: would get looking in the dictionary, which is the people voting.
Speaker 2: And actually pure democracy is the people voting and choosing
Speaker 2: the policies that will govern their country. We don't have
Speaker 2: a pure democracy. We have a republic. What is a republic.
Speaker 2: A republic is where the people vote to elect their representatives.
Speaker 2: So the people are not voting on should our top
Speaker 2: marginal tax rate be thirty six percent or fifty percent
Speaker 2: or ten percent. That would be direct democracy, but instead
Speaker 2: we have You could call it a democratic republic because
Speaker 2: it is a republic where democracy operates to elect our representatives.
Speaker 2: But when people use democracy capital d they usually mean
Speaker 2: that the voters get to decide. But that's not how
Speaker 2: democrats use it, that's not how the media use it. Instead,
Speaker 2: what they mean by democracy is socialists and Marxists are
Speaker 2: in power, and by the way, they're perfectly happy to
Speaker 2: ignore the voters if it keeps them in power. Let's
Speaker 2: focus on I ran for a moment because listen, and
Speaker 2: we've talked about this on the pod in the last
Speaker 2: couple of weeks. I really do think we're in a
Speaker 2: momentous moment like unlike anything we have seen since the
Speaker 2: late nineteen in the eighties, the early nineteen nineties. We're
Speaker 2: in a moment where three of the most viciously anti
Speaker 2: American regimes across the planet, Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba. In
Speaker 2: the next six months, we could see all three of
Speaker 2: those regimes fall, and we could also see free and
Speaker 2: fair elections and all three of them. And if that happens,
Speaker 2: I think there is a real possibility that they will
Speaker 2: elect democratically elect going back to big D democracy. The voters,
Speaker 2: I believe there's a real possibility will elect leaders who
Speaker 2: will defend free markets, defend freedom, and critically stop waging
Speaker 2: war on America and make the choice to be friends
Speaker 2: with America. If that happens, it will be the most
Speaker 2: consequential change on the global stage since the fall of
Speaker 2: the Berlin Wall, since Ronald Reagan and America won the
Speaker 2: Cold War. And we did that without firing a shot.
Speaker 2: That changed the entire globe, and we could see in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty six a change. Every bit is significant. Now,
Speaker 2: let me be clear, there are a thousand ways for
Speaker 2: things to go wrong in Iran, in Venezuela, in Cuba.
Speaker 2: So and what we do know for certainty is it
Speaker 2: will not be smooth and without challenges. We know that
Speaker 2: to an absolute certainty. Expect the unexpected. That being said,
Speaker 2: President Trump came out this week and he explicitly said
Speaker 2: it is time for a new government in Iran. He
Speaker 2: had never said that before, throughout the first term, throughout
Speaker 2: this term until right now, he had explicitly not gone
Speaker 2: so far as to embrace quote regime change. Now, Ben,
Speaker 2: you'll remember what was it six seven months ago when
Speaker 2: I did Tucker Carlson Show. He started by peripatetically freaking
Speaker 2: out and saying, my god, Cruz, you're for regime change
Speaker 2: in Iran. And he had a heart attack, and then
Speaker 2: he began laughing maniacally, which he does a lot. The
Speaker 2: odd thing is, I think any rational American should be
Speaker 2: wont to see regime change. If you ask yourself, is
Speaker 2: America better off if the leader of Iran is not
Speaker 2: a crazy religious nut, an Islamist radical who chance death
Speaker 2: to America, to kill, who chance death to America, who
Speaker 2: murders and tortures his own people. Who is the biggest
Speaker 2: funder of terrorism on planet Earth, who provides more than
Speaker 2: ninety percent of the funding to Hamas, who provides more
Speaker 2: than ninety percent of the funding to Hesbela, who is
Speaker 2: responsible for killing hundreds, if not thousands, of Americans. Like unequivocally,
Speaker 2: America would be better off if the Ayatola was no
Speaker 2: longer the leader of Iran. Now, part of the reason
Speaker 2: why the words regime change have a stigma connected to them,
Speaker 2: it is many remembered the Iraq War, Remember the George W.
Speaker 2: Bush administration, where regime change justified sending hundreds of thousands
Speaker 2: of American troops to spend years fighting in a distant war.
Speaker 2: And they don't want to see that. And by the way,
Speaker 2: I don't want to see that. I think the Iraq
Speaker 2: War was a mistake. I have said that for a
Speaker 2: long long time. So when I say I support regime change,
Speaker 2: it doesn't mean I want to send hundreds of thousands
Speaker 2: of American troops onto the ground in Iran. What it
Speaker 2: means is it is unequivocally in our interest to see
Speaker 2: the Iatola fall. I think the Iatola's fall ought to
Speaker 2: be driven primarily by the Iranian people, and it's why
Speaker 2: this uprising is so consequential because it is Iranians who
Speaker 2: are risking their lives to overturn this regime, this dictatorship.
Speaker 2: But President Trump, I think is doing a good job
Speaker 2: of number one, making clear that America stands with the people,
Speaker 2: stands with the protesters, and threatening accountability and what is
Speaker 2: accountability look like like. He has made clear to the
Speaker 2: government of Iran if you just sit there and begin
Speaker 2: massacring the protesters, there will be real consequences. He hasn't
Speaker 2: specified what they are, but the clear implication is the
Speaker 2: consequences will be military and nature. That deterrence, by the way,
Speaker 2: military and nature is not send hundreds of thousands of
Speaker 2: troops to the ground, but it may well be bombed
Speaker 2: the crap out of something like there is And hopefully
Speaker 2: that is a.
Speaker 1: They are remembering the ran nuclear sites that we just
Speaker 1: hit doing the impossible mission. Yep. And I do think
Speaker 1: that's part of terms calculus, Like if you don't believe me,
Speaker 1: just go look at your nuclear sites. Don't don't don't
Speaker 1: test me here. Don't think I won't do this right?
Speaker 2: And look, you combine President Trump taking out the Iranian
Speaker 2: nuclear facilities, and you combine it with the raid and
Speaker 2: arrest on Maduro, two incredibly audacious national security steps massively
Speaker 2: improve the national security of America. Both were incredible successes.
Speaker 2: And in Iran, Israel has already taken out their air defenses.
Speaker 2: Their air defenses are essentially non existence.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: Any time you engage in military action there is a risk.
Speaker 2: I mean, we could have casualties, but Iran is in
Speaker 2: a markedly wicked, weakened position, and so that threat is consequential.
Speaker 2: I also hope and I believe, and I don't have
Speaker 2: any classified information on this, so I'm not revealing anything,
Speaker 2: but I hope and believe there's quite a bit that
Speaker 2: is happening under the surface that we're not seeing in
Speaker 2: terms of covert activities. I hope we're doing everything humanly
Speaker 2: possible to help and support the protesters so that they
Speaker 2: can overthrow the government, not us, but them. But we
Speaker 2: can be contrasted to what happened when Barack Obama was president,
Speaker 2: and I want to actually I want to compare the
Speaker 2: two and give you that contrast. So there was an
Speaker 2: article in Tablet magazine several days ago, and it's called
Speaker 2: is this Time Different? In Iran? By an author named
Speaker 2: Peter throw and here's what he said. I want to
Speaker 2: read this at some length because I think it's really
Speaker 2: quite interesting and profound. In two thousand and nine, what
Speaker 2: shocked me about President Barack Obama's lack of support for
Speaker 2: the Green Movement protesters in Iran was the failure to
Speaker 2: launch of the Commander in Chief's colossal ego. Here were
Speaker 2: thousands of young Iranians filling the streets of Tehran to
Speaker 2: appeal to him, even with a wistful pawn on his name. Obama,
Speaker 2: Bama Bashid Obama be with us. Anyone in government at
Speaker 2: the time knew that the Chicago un lacked nothing in
Speaker 2: the way of ruthlessness, though he tended to save it
Speaker 2: for republicans of the non Islamic variety. He applied the
Speaker 2: word enemy to the GOP, but never to the Mullahs.
Speaker 2: If righteous anger at the regime's murder of dissidence didn't
Speaker 2: meet the threshold for Chicago rules, I thought surely vanity
Speaker 2: might do the job. But opening to Iran had been
Speaker 2: an early theme of his presidency. That same year, with
Speaker 2: a mushy Persian New Year message and a secret letter
Speaker 2: to Supreme Leader Ali Kameni of whom he knew little. Quote.
Speaker 2: Despite his title of Supreme Leader, Kameni's authority wasn't absolute.
Speaker 2: Obama preposterously intoned in his memoir of Promised Land in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, quote, he had to confer with a powerful
Speaker 2: council of clerics, the Guardian's council. Referring to the clerics,
Speaker 2: journalist Kareem Sajjapur observed that their average age is deceased.
Speaker 2: Obama continued, that's pretty funny. Obama continued, quote, my first
Speaker 2: impulse was to express strong support for the demonstrators, Obama
Speaker 2: records further in that memoir. But when I gathered my
Speaker 2: national security team, are Iran experts advised against such a move.
Speaker 2: According to them, any statement for me would likely backfire.
Speaker 2: Activists inside Iran fear that supportive statements from the US
Speaker 2: government would be seized upon to discredit their movement.
Speaker 1: That's amazing.
Speaker 2: The latter statement was ridiculous on its face, as the
Speaker 2: demonstrators were openly pleading for outside support and from him specifically.
Speaker 2: He may have been ignorant about how Ronald Reagan's harsh
Speaker 2: anti Moscow rhetoric boosted the morale of imprisoned dissidence like
Speaker 2: Datan Sharansky. But what of that national security team? Obama
Speaker 2: does not name them, but his administration would become known
Speaker 2: for high level sentimentalists towards Iran, Rob Malley, Samantha Power,
Speaker 2: Philip Gordon, sahir Naurazadree, and the diplomatic weaklings who would
Speaker 2: negotiate the nuclear deal. So Obama issued a series of
Speaker 2: statements that he himself would describe as quote bland, bureaucratic,
Speaker 2: and passive. Bitter that quote, I had to listen to
Speaker 2: Republicans how that I was coddling a murderous regime. Actually
Speaker 2: he was six years away from truly coddling it. Our
Speaker 2: cerebral leader lamented that as president, quote, my heart was
Speaker 2: now chained to strategic considerations and tactical analysis, my conviction
Speaker 2: subject to counterintuitive arguments that in the most powerful office
Speaker 2: on Earth, I had less freedom to say what I
Speaker 2: meant and act on what I felt than I had
Speaker 2: as a senator. In other words, what passed for his
Speaker 2: convictions were easily defeated by an America bad briefing from
Speaker 2: his subordinates. Now it goes on to say, numbers are
Speaker 2: still inexact, but Tehran's thugs made about four thousand arrests
Speaker 2: and killed hundreds to quell the two thousand and nine demonstration.
Speaker 2: The Green Movements leaders were jailed globally, dissidents of all stripes,
Speaker 2: and even Madonna and U two spoke out in favor
Speaker 2: of Iranian democracy. By the way, where are Madonna and
Speaker 2: you two right now? That's an interesting question. Was it
Speaker 2: a bitter pill for a cool cat like Obama not
Speaker 2: to be in that club? I suspect not, as he
Speaker 2: harbored some sentimentality towards the Islamic Republic, having stated in
Speaker 2: his first letter to its leader, as well as in
Speaker 2: his tape video message on the occasion of Norah's the
Speaker 2: Persian New Year, that he sought normalization with the state
Speaker 2: sponsor of terror, a long step beyond better hope, hoping
Speaker 2: for better relations with a Ran someday, as you might
Speaker 2: do in a holiday.
Speaker 1: Greeting, Sinta, I just gotta stop. And I do love
Speaker 1: the revisionist history from Barack Obama. He's like, hey, I
Speaker 1: wanted to stay with the people at Iran, but my
Speaker 1: team told me not to. So therefore that's why I
Speaker 1: didn't do it. Leaders lead like straight up. Leaders lead,
Speaker 1: You lead that you're at the front of the ship.
Speaker 1: You're in charge. It's it's supposed to be your foreign policy.
Speaker 1: And then you look at what he actually did with
Speaker 1: Iran and you understand he was aiding in a betting
Speaker 1: and helping them stay on top in Iran. Like, let's
Speaker 1: just be clear, we sent them money. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Look to understand leader's lead. And by the way
Speaker 2: Obama was leading. Obama was leading. There is there's practically
Speaker 2: not an Islamist on planet Earth that he didn't coddle,
Speaker 2: embrace and send money.
Speaker 1: True, it was right right when he got elected. Remember
Speaker 1: it was all about the buzzom world in a reset.
Speaker 2: And by the way, when he was brand new in office,
Speaker 2: he flew to as president, he flew to Cairo, to
Speaker 2: the University of Cairo, and he gave a speech where
Speaker 2: he said Iran has a right and he used the
Speaker 2: word right to nuclear weapons nuclear technology. Actually didn't say weapons,
Speaker 2: he said nuclear technology technology. That was absurd. And so
Speaker 2: his claiming to be reluctant, I think is a brazen lie.
Speaker 2: This is his ideology. And by the way, it came
Speaker 2: to full flower under the Biden White House. And I
Speaker 2: think the history for a lot of folks that may
Speaker 2: not remember what was happening. Look, two thousand and nine
Speaker 2: was sixteen seventeen years ago, was a long time ago. Yeah,
Speaker 2: let me jump forward because the question then is okay,
Speaker 2: what's different now? And let me jump forward to this article.
Speaker 2: I think it's a really insightful article. So, after two
Speaker 2: weeks of the largest nationwide demonstrations in Iran since the
Speaker 2: Islamic Revolution, what has changed and why? It has nothing
Speaker 2: to do with negotiating tables and lots to do with battlespace. First,
Speaker 2: let's note that this month's huge anti regime demonstrations in
Speaker 2: more than one hundred Iranian cities were not ignited by
Speaker 2: a single big domestic event like a blatantly stolen election
Speaker 2: or the murder of an innocent young woman. The Iranian
Speaker 2: real has been crashing, passed a million to the dollar.
Speaker 2: Let me say that again, one pasted one million to
Speaker 2: a dollar. That's their exchange rate for weeks, and inflation
Speaker 2: reached the point where the Tehran Bazaar was losing money
Speaker 2: on every transaction, so it closed everything else.
Speaker 1: Every transaction. Just imagine having a story and everything you're
Speaker 1: selling you're losing money on how would you stay in business.
Speaker 1: That's why they closed down.
Speaker 2: It's incredible because hyperinflation. If the value of the rial
Speaker 2: falls day after day after day, you sell something for
Speaker 2: five million real and then the next day that five
Speaker 2: million real is worth a fraction of what it was
Speaker 2: worth the day before. That's why they closed. Something else
Speaker 2: drove the following events such as the South Pars energy
Speaker 2: strike and reported military affections. The battle space started shaping
Speaker 2: up six years ago this month under Trump, with the
Speaker 2: US killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps kud's forced
Speaker 2: commander Kassam Salamani, the second most powerful man in Iran,
Speaker 2: by US drones at Baghdad Airport. He had just arrived
Speaker 2: from Damascus, where he was briefing former Syrian president Bashar
Speaker 2: al Assad on a plan to attack the US embassy
Speaker 2: in Baghdad as it had been done in Tehran in
Speaker 2: nineteen seventy nine. Iran's Iraqi katspaw Abu Madi al Mahandis
Speaker 2: and ten senior Iranian briefers and bodyguards were also killed
Speaker 2: in the strike. After twenty years a Bush, Obama and
Speaker 2: Biden kid gloves, Tehran was legitimately frightened, and then after
Speaker 2: the Tehran directed atrocity against Israel in October twenty twenty three,
Speaker 2: Israel killed Yaha Sinwar, mohammadif Hasrand, Nosrala, Ibrahima kil Hashim
Speaker 2: Safedin and Ismail Haniya, added IRGC safehouse in Tehran and
Speaker 2: almost one hundred more in Lebanon and Gaza. Deprived of
Speaker 2: its decapitated Hezbela Pratorian guard, the Syrian bath Party didn't
Speaker 2: trust its own people any more than the Bolavarian Maduro
Speaker 2: trusted Venezuelans more than Cubans. The criminal Assad family fled
Speaker 2: to Moscow. Then last summer, the Israelian US air forces
Speaker 2: wiped out much of the Iranian military's general staff and
Speaker 2: key nuclear sites. The pro Tehran, Moscow and Beijing dominoes
Speaker 2: continue to fall. With the capture of Nicholas Maduro, the
Speaker 2: massacre of his Cuban protection detail, the seizure of Russian
Speaker 2: ghost ships, and the spread of Starlik terminals in Iran,
Speaker 2: Iranians have seen the regime and its backers exposed and
Speaker 2: humiliated by an American administration, and they were quick to
Speaker 2: exploit this roll of the dice. Unlike Prohamas nihilists from
Speaker 2: Berkeley to Dublin. They have hit their streets in millions
Speaker 2: without a single kefia or aluja Akbar, motivated by American
Speaker 2: successes against their regime and its effeckless backers. At the
Speaker 2: time of writing, the regime has turned off the Internet
Speaker 2: and all landlines, and Kameni has engaged emerged from a
Speaker 2: two day silence to express defiance. This is no surprise
Speaker 2: to anyone who knows that Kameni's greatest fear is moderation
Speaker 2: that causes the regime to bend and then break, as
Speaker 2: expressed in Alex Vatanka's The Battle of the Iyatolas in Iran,
Speaker 2: Kameni became obsessed with the prospect of an Iranian Gorbachev
Speaker 2: who would impose reforms and usher in a USSR style collapse.
Speaker 2: The more so because this was addressed by Tom Friedman,
Speaker 2: a Jewish American journalist, in a nineteen ninety six column
Speaker 2: titled Waiting for Iyatola Gorbachev after he visited Iran that
Speaker 2: pressed all of the leader's buttons, his defiance to continue
Speaker 2: as long as he is alive or in power, which
Speaker 2: may not be long, and listen to this because he
Speaker 2: faces two threats. The one in front of him is
Speaker 2: the unpredictable Donald Trump, who has already shed Iranian blood
Speaker 2: and has promised to rescue the Iranian people. The one
Speaker 2: behind him is the IRGC, which holds all the firepower
Speaker 2: in Iran, and which knows, as Mohammed am Dinijad do,
Speaker 2: that the Mallahs are despised by nearly the entire population.
Speaker 2: They are unlikely to lay down their guns or give
Speaker 2: up the forty percent of the Iranian economy they control.
Speaker 2: They are led by Ahmed Vahiti and internationally sanctioned terrorists.
Speaker 2: Quote terrorists are acts was a wise saying of one
Speaker 2: of my counter terrorist colleagues at the CIA. She didn't
Speaker 2: just mean that terror plots ruined our weekends and sleep schedules.
Speaker 2: She meant that terrorists are psychopathic, disloyal, and venal creatures
Speaker 2: who could and did mistreated each other and turn against
Speaker 2: each other. The top ranks of the IRGC are full
Speaker 2: of them, and this is the final point what might
Speaker 2: lead the IRGC to sideline or overthrow Kameeni and his
Speaker 2: weak president Masud Pezeshkian. Two kinds of strike, an anti
Speaker 2: regime blow from the United States or the labor variety
Speaker 2: that would shut down Iranians Iran's energy sector if both occur,
Speaker 2: my money is on a coup and goodbye Mullahs. And
Speaker 2: this is from Peter Thurreau, spent twenty years in the
Speaker 2: US government and the CIA. I got to say, look,
Speaker 2: I appreciated that that article because it provides a level
Speaker 2: of context and detail, drawing a real difference between what
Speaker 2: happens when you have a weak pro Islamist president like
Speaker 2: Barack Obama or for that matter, Joe Biden in the
Speaker 2: White House versus a strong pro America president like Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: and I think the terrain is totally different, which is why,
Speaker 2: by the way, Trump is saying to the protesters, keep
Speaker 2: a list of the names of any soldiers who are
Speaker 2: committing atrocities, because there is going to be accountability. That
Speaker 2: carrot and stick is really powerful for deterring that kind
Speaker 2: of horrific action.
Speaker 1: You know, there's part of this article, and I think
Speaker 1: we should talk about this for a moment, because there
Speaker 1: is I had at dinner the other night with some
Speaker 1: oil executives and they were frustrated a little bit because
Speaker 1: the price of oil has come down, and one of
Speaker 1: the people at the table was also White House, and
Speaker 1: they said, what you don't understand is that our energy
Speaker 1: inpendent's policy is also a national security policy because when
Speaker 1: you take away the money that is to the leadership
Speaker 1: in Iran, to Vladimir Putin in Russia. Venezuela is another
Speaker 1: example of this, right, then what the money that they
Speaker 1: need to survive and to hold on to power and
Speaker 1: to pay their forces to keep them in power and
Speaker 1: to go after their citizens just completely disappears. That is
Speaker 1: part of I think what Donald Trump, and it was
Speaker 1: very interesting to hear this kind of back and forth.
Speaker 1: There's like, hey, I'm sorry that the price of per
Speaker 1: barrel is not where you want it, but it's helping
Speaker 1: American families a lower gas prices, and it's a national
Speaker 1: security thing for us as well. And it's allowing some
Speaker 1: of these horrible people in the world to start tetering
Speaker 1: a little bit because they don't have the cash flow
Speaker 1: they had two three four years ago under democratic leadership.
Speaker 2: I think that's right. There's also a balance that President
Speaker 2: Trump and the Trump administration are trying to strike, which
Speaker 2: is we've seen the price of oil drop dramatically from
Speaker 2: one hundred bucks a barrel to down just around sixty
Speaker 2: bucks of barrel, a little bit lower. That has weakened
Speaker 2: almost every bad guy in the world. That is weak
Speaker 2: in Russia, that is week in Deran, that is weak
Speaker 2: in Venezuela, and Maduro because it is I guess God
Speaker 2: has a sense of humor in that that many of
Speaker 2: the worst players on planet Earth depend upon oil revenues.
Speaker 2: There are in many ways Petro tyrants. Now Duro's not
Speaker 2: Maduro is innate number two, five seven.
Speaker 1: Whatever, But he used sticking out with p Diddy.
Speaker 2: But I'll say this, Look, there is a balance because
Speaker 2: from a US national security interest, Look, oil and gas
Speaker 2: and energy are powerful weapons against our enemies and to
Speaker 2: buttress America. But you don't want to slash the price
Speaker 2: of oil so dramatically that you devastate US producers. And
Speaker 2: as you know, I talked to I represent Texas, I
Speaker 2: talk to a lot of US producers, and I will say,
Speaker 2: at down around sixty seventy dollars a barrel, you see
Speaker 2: what we've got now, which is gas prices at about
Speaker 2: two three bucks a gallon, depending on what part of
Speaker 2: the country you're in. Now, if you're in California, there's
Speaker 2: still four five bucks a gallon.
Speaker 1: But that's that's on you for a living in California
Speaker 1: voting for those nut jobs.
Speaker 2: But again that's Davenew some of the Democrats fault. But
Speaker 2: here here in Texas, you fill up your tank, it's
Speaker 2: you know, somewhere between two and three bucks typically is
Speaker 2: what you're paying right now. I think that's a sweet
Speaker 2: spot is sixty to seventy dollars. Where it get lowers
Speaker 2: under Biden, when we had one hundred dollars oil, you
Speaker 2: were seeing four five, six seven dollars a gallon a gasoline.
Speaker 2: That really hurts consumers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I say, crushing middle and lower class families even
Speaker 1: more than anybody else.
Speaker 2: I will say this, if you see oil prices plummet,
Speaker 2: so let's say they drop from the sixties down to
Speaker 2: say the forties.
Speaker 1: Are below, it hurts that lot of people.
Speaker 2: That's when it starts doing real damage, in particular to
Speaker 2: the independent producers, the small guys in West Texas and
Speaker 2: the Permian. That's when you see drilling basically stop. And
Speaker 2: by the way, the majors will be fine. The x
Speaker 2: on mobiles, the Chevrons, I mean, look, those are companies
Speaker 2: that literally have more revenue assets than most countries on
Speaker 2: planet Earth. They're that massive, So the majors will survive
Speaker 2: a drop. But what happens if we see forty dollars oil,
Speaker 2: You'll see bankruptcy bankruptcies throughout the Permian basin of the
Speaker 2: small producers. And when those guys go away, those are
Speaker 2: the guys driving production. And what it does is it
Speaker 2: weakens America's ability to produce oil and makes us more
Speaker 2: dependent on foreign adversary. So I think what President Trump
Speaker 2: of the administration is trying to do is stay in
Speaker 2: a sweet spot where oil is low enough that our
Speaker 2: enemies are weakened, but not so low that we're devastating
Speaker 2: us small businesses. And I think they're doing a pretty
Speaker 2: good job of trying to balance those two factors well.
Speaker 1: And I was talking to some small refineries and that
Speaker 1: was exactly their concern center was, Hey, these small refineries
Speaker 1: that keep these small towns going, that employ a lot
Speaker 1: of people. They want to make sure that they're okay
Speaker 1: as well. And like you said, that's where this administration
Speaker 1: came and asked away both ends of this, because you
Speaker 1: don't want to hurt mom and pops. You don't want
Speaker 1: to hurt the small ones like you said, the big
Speaker 1: ones will be okay, but these small refineries that literally
Speaker 1: power these small towns where they are, you don't want
Speaker 1: them to get hurt either.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And look, in the last several weeks, with everything
Speaker 2: happening in Iran, everything happening in Venezuela, I've been reaching
Speaker 2: out to energy leaders, primarily in Texas. So I've had
Speaker 2: conversations with the CEO of Chevron and the CEO of Valero,
Speaker 2: the biggest refiner in America, and I've had conversations with
Speaker 2: a number of smaller e E and P expiration and
Speaker 2: production independence in West Texas, and they've expressed optimism. Number
Speaker 2: one in terms of Venezuela. Venezuela, as we've talked about,
Speaker 2: has the highest proven reserves of oil in the world.
Speaker 2: No country has more. But the Venezuelan infrastructure is completely collapsed.
Speaker 2: Communism is not capable of producing what they should and
Speaker 2: so Venezuela right now is producing about a million barrels
Speaker 2: a day, which is a fraction of what their capacity is.
Speaker 2: I will say I I asked one of the major CEOs,
Speaker 2: I said, okay, what would the time frame be to
Speaker 2: take Venezuela from one million barrels a day to three
Speaker 2: million barrels a day. And the response was ten years.
Speaker 2: That it doesn't happen over like, it would take tens
Speaker 2: of billions of dollars of investment, and perhaps north of
Speaker 2: one hundred billion dollars. Now you would recoup that, but
Speaker 2: the infrastructure has so degraded. And I said, all right,
Speaker 2: so ten years to go from one million a day
Speaker 2: to three million a day, how about just from one
Speaker 2: to two And the answer was five to seven years.
Speaker 2: So the first millions, it's.
Speaker 1: An infrastrucstruct it's just straight up infrastructure.
Speaker 2: Right, and you could keep going up from there. I
Speaker 2: also am talking to refiners. So so Venezuela produces what
Speaker 2: is called heavy sour crude, which is a different sort
Speaker 2: of crude than in West Texas, they produce what's called
Speaker 2: light sweet crude. You refine them very very differently. Now,
Speaker 2: it so happens that the refineries that were built to
Speaker 2: handle heavy sour crude are along the Gulf coast. They're
Speaker 2: in Texas and Louisiana, and so we've got the capacity.
Speaker 2: I've been told that the Gulf coast refineries could almost
Speaker 2: overnight refine an additional two hundred and fifty thousand barrels
Speaker 2: of the heavy crude from Venezuela. Now, interestingly enough, when
Speaker 2: I've asked the refiners, okay, what would the trade off be,
Speaker 2: what would the impact be? Say for West Texas producers,
Speaker 2: the refiners at least were not that concerned about it,
Speaker 2: and they said, look, the other producers of heavy crude
Speaker 2: are Canada and so the Tarsans in Alberta. And I said,
Speaker 2: look more Venezuelan crude would impact Canada and actually Mexico.
Speaker 2: Mexico also produces similar crude to what Venezuela and Canada produce.
Speaker 2: And so that in terms of the impact, those are
Speaker 2: the trade offs. Those that's the kind of decision making
Speaker 2: the Trump administration is engaged in right now.
Speaker 1: It's a new year, twenty twenty six. You've probably heard
Speaker 1: the name bitcoin and cryptocurrency. So the question so many
Speaker 1: people have is is it safe? And is it something
Speaker 1: that I should be invested in. It's a question I
Speaker 1: want to get answered for you today in joining me
Speaker 1: now to talk about that. As a co founder of
Speaker 1: Bitcoin Ira Chris Klin, Chris, I appreciate you being here,
Speaker 1: and it is pretty cool to see what's happened in
Speaker 1: the crypto space. It has become normal. It now can
Speaker 1: be a part of your IRA. The federal government has
Speaker 1: changed the rules. They're accepting cryptocurrency like it's a stock.
Speaker 3: Yes, absolutely, and it's really driven itself into a mainstream space.
Speaker 3: I remember a decade ago when we first started bitcoin
Speaker 3: IRA and everybody was like, are you crazy kid, You're
Speaker 3: putting bitcoin in retirement accounts? Is this even possible? And
Speaker 3: you fast forward to where we're at today, where countries
Speaker 3: are building stockpiles, corporations are building stockpiles. Strategy, for example,
Speaker 3: is pretty much its entire business models on this. It's
Speaker 3: a piece of diversification that every major player in the
Speaker 3: space and economics is looking at, and so should too,
Speaker 3: the individual sovereignty of the average American looking to put
Speaker 3: it inside of their retirement.
Speaker 1: You guys actually have a really cool stat that you
Speaker 1: told me about at dinner, and that is that your
Speaker 1: clients seventy five percent were born before nineteen seventy six.
Speaker 1: So the idea that you may be missed out on
Speaker 1: this or if you're a little older, it's a young
Speaker 1: man's game and crypto that is also just not true.
Speaker 3: That's definitely one of the myths I wanted to come
Speaker 3: to bunk with you in your audience, isn't this isn't
Speaker 3: our grandfather's economy and grandfathers are buying bitcoin and putting
Speaker 3: it inside of their retirement for long term holdings, especially
Speaker 3: now that they're thinking about inheritance and handing some of
Speaker 3: these things down. But yeah, that was actually shocking to me.
Speaker 3: We've discovered that in twenty eighteen that seventy five percent
Speaker 3: of them were older than my parents' generation. And what
Speaker 3: we found from surveying all of them was this is
Speaker 3: something that they think is new age and that I
Speaker 3: think almost every American, especially older ones, has a genuine
Speaker 3: concern of watching what's happened to the US over the
Speaker 3: last four or five decades. And there's always been gold
Speaker 3: and silver's a potential hedge, land, real estate, these scarce
Speaker 3: assets and bitcoin. While it may seem oh, that's digital
Speaker 3: and it's different, it's scarce. There's only twenty one million
Speaker 3: assets of bitcoin that will ever be mined. Nineteen and
Speaker 3: a half million have been mined so far, and you
Speaker 3: and I actually won't live our kids will probably live
Speaker 3: to see the last one get mined. This is something
Speaker 3: you know, we're in a world of abundance since I
Speaker 3: was born in nineteen eighty five. It's abundance. We just
Speaker 3: printed and printed and printed more. This is a moment
Speaker 3: in time where we may be able to revert back
Speaker 3: to scarcity, and there'll be a day we're just saying
Speaker 3: I have one Bitcoin will be life changing.
Speaker 1: Chris. I hope a lot of people that are watching this,
Speaker 1: you guys, will go and find out more. It is
Speaker 1: amazing what you can do in your retirement account now,
Speaker 1: just like your other investments with bitcoin cryptocurrency. Find out
Speaker 1: more right now at bitcoinira dot com, slash ben that's
Speaker 1: bitcoin ira dot com, slash ben and see what cryptocurrency
Speaker 1: can do for your portfolio. I want to ask you
Speaker 1: one final question before we wrap here. We talked a
Speaker 1: lot about Venezuela in the last couple of shows. We
Speaker 1: kind of know the state of play there. We talked
Speaker 1: a lot about it Ran today. Can you give us
Speaker 1: for everyone listening just a quick update on what's happening
Speaker 1: in Cuba. We've mentioned it several times of how things
Speaker 1: could be teetering there. Give a little bit of an
Speaker 1: update for people that so they understand what's happening on
Speaker 1: the ground there as we wrap things up.
Speaker 2: So, look, the Cuban regime has been a communist dictatorship
Speaker 2: since nineteen fifty nine. As you know, that for me
Speaker 2: is not some abstract statement because my family was directly
Speaker 2: involved in him. My dad was a kid. He was
Speaker 2: fourteen when he began fighting in the Cuban Revolution. And
Speaker 2: to this day, my dad turns eighty seven in March,
Speaker 2: and he told me, he said, look the revolution. He said,
Speaker 2: it was fourteen and fifteen year old boys who he said,
Speaker 2: we're too stupid to know any better. And as you know,
Speaker 2: you know my dad. Well, but when I want to
Speaker 2: give my father grief, I'll call my dad a communist gorilla.
Speaker 2: He gets very mad.
Speaker 1: I have him feeling that. So during game night, when
Speaker 1: you guys are playing games, I just I feel like
Speaker 1: that's one of that's gonna get used the most.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he will say I was not a communist.
Speaker 2: I was never a communist. He was a kid and
Speaker 2: they were fighting against Batista, who was a dictator. He
Speaker 2: was corrupt, and Batista's thugs through my father in prison
Speaker 2: and they tortured him. And so when my dad came
Speaker 2: to America, he was fleeing Batista, and he came to
Speaker 2: Texas at eighteen with nothing, and he couldn't speak English.
Speaker 2: He came seeking freedom. His younger sister is my Theosnia,
Speaker 2: and might theos Sonia. I adore my theos Sonia. I
Speaker 2: call her my Theoloka. She's my crazy aunt. She is
Speaker 2: a fireball. She was there in fifty nine when Castro
Speaker 2: took over, and the young people, the Cubans didn't realize
Speaker 2: Castro was a communist. They just thought it was a
Speaker 2: people's revolution against Batista. He took over and he clared
Speaker 2: he was a communist. He began firing squads, he began
Speaker 2: executing anyone who disagreed with him against seizing people's lands.
Speaker 2: And and my Theosagnia fought in the counter revolution. Was
Speaker 2: that there was a whole counter revolution of the people
Speaker 2: trying to fight back. And my theoso Onia ended up
Speaker 2: being thrown in prison and tortured by Castro's goons. So
Speaker 2: I take it very personally when it comes to communism,
Speaker 2: it strikes very close to home. If you look at
Speaker 2: the history of Cuba, starting early on from when Castro
Speaker 2: took over and made Cuba a communist dictatorship, for decades,
Speaker 2: Cuba was effectively a satellite state of the Soviet Union,
Speaker 2: remember the whole Cuban Mission missile crisis under JFK, and
Speaker 2: the Soviets provided them a financial lifeline. Look, if you're
Speaker 2: a communist, you destroy the economy. That happens all across
Speaker 2: the world. Communism is a great way to destroy jobs
Speaker 2: and make your people incredibly poor. Cuba went from it
Speaker 2: was the number one sugar producer in all of Latin America,
Speaker 2: and they just destroyed the sugar industry and everything else
Speaker 2: and brought massive poverty to Cuba. They survived because the
Speaker 2: Soviet Union sent them money, and they sent them money
Speaker 2: because the Soviets wanted a military satellite just ninety miles
Speaker 2: off the coast of America. Now, when we won the
Speaker 2: Cold War, when the Soviet Union collapsed, suddenly that financial
Speaker 2: lifeline disappeared. And what happened was Venezuela stepped into the
Speaker 2: breach and you had Huo Chavez and then later Maduro,
Speaker 2: both communist dictators who destroyed the economy in Venezuela, just
Speaker 2: like Castro had in Cuba. Chavez and Maduro did the
Speaker 2: same thing in Venezuela and Venezuela had a corrupt bargain
Speaker 2: where they were sent oil which they had a ton of,
Speaker 2: and they would send money, which they had a lot of,
Speaker 2: in exchange for selling the oil, and what they would
Speaker 2: get back is is enforcers in thugs. There was a
Speaker 2: reason Morduro's entire protection detail were Cuban guards. And you
Speaker 2: know in the article I just ran, it talked about
Speaker 2: how one of the reasons is Maduro didn't trust Venezuelans
Speaker 2: because he was such a terrible leader that he was
Speaker 2: afraid Venezuelans would turn on him, which is why he
Speaker 2: used Cuban enforcers instead. Well, with Venezuela, with Maduro having
Speaker 2: been arrested, no longer in power, Venezuela is no longer
Speaker 2: sending oil and no longer sending money to Cuba, and
Speaker 2: the Cuban economy is in freefall, just like the Iranian
Speaker 2: economy is in freefall. The regime is incredibly precarious. And
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what's keeping it alive right now, which
Speaker 2: is Mexico is still sending oil to Cuba. And my
Speaker 2: hope is the Trump administration is going to lean on
Speaker 2: Mexico to stop that oil going to Cuba. I think
Speaker 2: that may be the single most important piece to nudge
Speaker 2: Cuba beyond the tipping point, much like Iran is, and
Speaker 2: I think the communist dictatorship is terrified that they will
Speaker 2: lose control.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: The counterbalance to that is the Cuban regime has a
Speaker 2: massive oppressive machinery that has been in place for decades,
Speaker 2: and that machinery can be really brutal, and so I
Speaker 2: think the vulnerability right now is that when people face
Speaker 2: a collapsing economy, they get angry and they can turn
Speaker 2: on their leaders. And so I think the Trump administration,
Speaker 2: I think President Trump is encouraging that. But it is
Speaker 2: the economic factor, more than anything that I think is
Speaker 2: putting the regime in a massively fragile position.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be very interesting to see what happens in
Speaker 1: the days and weeks ahead on this, because, like you said,
Speaker 1: it's teetering at the moment. How long can you teeter
Speaker 1: before the people also rise up, which is what we've
Speaker 1: seen in Venezuela. It's also what we've seen certainly day
Speaker 1: to day in Iran. And the question is what happens
Speaker 1: X and Cuba. We're going to cover it all here
Speaker 1: don't forget. We do this show Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
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