1 00:00:01,360 --> 00:00:03,600 Speaker 1: Welcome. It is Verdict with Center Ted Cruz. It is 2 00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:05,520 Speaker 1: so nice to have you with us and Centaer. We've 3 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: got a big show today. First off, Iran and President 4 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:11,320 Speaker 1: Trump's speaking out in a very bold way. 5 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 2: Well, this week is momentous and that millions of Iranians 6 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:18,080 Speaker 2: continue to stand up and fight to overthrow the Ayahtola, 7 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 2: to overthrow the Mullahs, the radical Islamist who have dominated 8 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 2: that country for five decades. And President Trump has come 9 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 2: out unequivocally in support of the protesters. And just this 10 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 2: week he came out and said it is time for 11 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 2: a new government in Iran. The Ayahtola needs to go. 12 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 2: That is enormously consequential. We're going to break down why 13 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,480 Speaker 2: he said, what he did, what it means, and what's 14 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 2: going to happen next. 15 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is an important story. I want to 16 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 1: also reminds you about an incredible organization, our friends at 17 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 1: Compassion International. Right now, somewhere in the world, a kid 18 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: you've never met is writing you a letter. They're telling 19 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:59,639 Speaker 1: you about their day, their dreams, the goal they scored, 20 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: the tests they passed, the new friend they made at school. 21 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: Maybe they're drawing you even a picture maybe they've asked 22 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: you about your family, your favorite color, what makes you laugh. 23 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: They're wondering who you are, this person who cares enough 24 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 1: to be part of their story. And you you're not 25 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 1: just sending money, You're writing back. You're showing up month 26 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 1: after month, letter after letter. You're celebrating their victories, encouraging 27 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: them through challenges, and reminding them that they truly matter. Now, 28 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 1: this isn't a transaction, It's an incredible relationship that spans 29 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: continence and changes everything for both of you. That is 30 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 1: where Compassion International connects you directly with one child, real letters, 31 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 1: real relationships, and real change. Because poverty isn't solved with 32 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: donations alone. It's solved by showing up impact the world, 33 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: one child at a time, and learn how at Compassion 34 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 1: dot com. That's Compassion dot com. All right. So, Center 35 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: Sunday Morning, I was watching CBS like Sunday Morning, their 36 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: show it with Jane Pawley, and they were reminding people 37 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: that Tuesday is one year since President Trump will be 38 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 1: in office, and they were talking about this and they 39 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 1: were also comparing it, saying that Donald Trump has gone 40 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,119 Speaker 1: so rogue on the world stage now, and they had 41 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:28,119 Speaker 1: a historian on to say, well, most countries don't make 42 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: it to two hundred and fifty years with a democracy 43 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 1: and freedom, and so they were clearly implying that this 44 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:37,519 Speaker 1: is that two hundred and fifty year anniversary. We probably 45 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 1: won't make it there by July because Donald Trump's gone 46 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: so rogue. And I laugh because I'm like, this guy 47 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 1: is so clearly transparent and what he wants to do 48 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 1: and what the voters told him to do. Iran as 49 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 1: another example of that, you don't have to guess. He 50 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: has said what our state admission is. 51 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 2: Well, I got to say. Your first mistake is what 52 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 2: on earth will you doing watching CBS this morning? I 53 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 2: was on, I was on Maria Bartiromo, but apparently I'm 54 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 2: Chop Liver and so you weren't interested in watching me. 55 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 2: You instead wanted. 56 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: To commies were peddling out there. 57 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 2: Look, you wanted to listen to COMMI historians lie and 58 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 2: say democracy died the day the American people elected Donald Trump. 59 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 2: By the way, they think democracy died any time the 60 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 2: voters don't elect left wing radical democrats. You know, it 61 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 2: reminds me of a Nigo Montoya and the Princess Bride 62 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 2: when it comes to democracy, you keep on using that word. 63 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 2: I do not think it means what you think it means. 64 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 2: Like their definition of democracy is not what you actually 65 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 2: would get looking in the dictionary, which is the people voting. 66 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 2: And actually pure democracy is the people voting and choosing 67 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 2: the policies that will govern their country. We don't have 68 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 2: a pure democracy. We have a republic. What is a republic. 69 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 2: A republic is where the people vote to elect their representatives. 70 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 2: So the people are not voting on should our top 71 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 2: marginal tax rate be thirty six percent or fifty percent 72 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 2: or ten percent. That would be direct democracy, but instead 73 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 2: we have You could call it a democratic republic because 74 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 2: it is a republic where democracy operates to elect our representatives. 75 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 2: But when people use democracy capital d they usually mean 76 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 2: that the voters get to decide. But that's not how 77 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 2: democrats use it, that's not how the media use it. Instead, 78 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 2: what they mean by democracy is socialists and Marxists are 79 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 2: in power, and by the way, they're perfectly happy to 80 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:44,119 Speaker 2: ignore the voters if it keeps them in power. Let's 81 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 2: focus on I ran for a moment because listen, and 82 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 2: we've talked about this on the pod in the last 83 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 2: couple of weeks. I really do think we're in a 84 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 2: momentous moment like unlike anything we have seen since the 85 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 2: late nineteen in the eighties, the early nineteen nineties. We're 86 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 2: in a moment where three of the most viciously anti 87 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 2: American regimes across the planet, Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba. In 88 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 2: the next six months, we could see all three of 89 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:20,479 Speaker 2: those regimes fall, and we could also see free and 90 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 2: fair elections and all three of them. And if that happens, 91 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 2: I think there is a real possibility that they will 92 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 2: elect democratically elect going back to big D democracy. The voters, 93 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 2: I believe there's a real possibility will elect leaders who 94 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 2: will defend free markets, defend freedom, and critically stop waging 95 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,160 Speaker 2: war on America and make the choice to be friends 96 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 2: with America. If that happens, it will be the most 97 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 2: consequential change on the global stage since the fall of 98 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 2: the Berlin Wall, since Ronald Reagan and America won the 99 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 2: Cold War. And we did that without firing a shot. 100 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 2: That changed the entire globe, and we could see in 101 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:05,279 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six a change. Every bit is significant. Now, 102 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 2: let me be clear, there are a thousand ways for 103 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 2: things to go wrong in Iran, in Venezuela, in Cuba. 104 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,719 Speaker 2: So and what we do know for certainty is it 105 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 2: will not be smooth and without challenges. We know that 106 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 2: to an absolute certainty. Expect the unexpected. That being said, 107 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 2: President Trump came out this week and he explicitly said 108 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 2: it is time for a new government in Iran. He 109 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 2: had never said that before, throughout the first term, throughout 110 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 2: this term until right now, he had explicitly not gone 111 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 2: so far as to embrace quote regime change. Now, Ben, 112 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 2: you'll remember what was it six seven months ago when 113 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 2: I did Tucker Carlson Show. He started by peripatetically freaking 114 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:55,160 Speaker 2: out and saying, my god, Cruz, you're for regime change 115 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:57,359 Speaker 2: in Iran. And he had a heart attack, and then 116 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:02,359 Speaker 2: he began laughing maniacally, which he does a lot. The 117 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 2: odd thing is, I think any rational American should be 118 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 2: wont to see regime change. If you ask yourself, is 119 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 2: America better off if the leader of Iran is not 120 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 2: a crazy religious nut, an Islamist radical who chance death 121 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 2: to America, to kill, who chance death to America, who 122 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 2: murders and tortures his own people. Who is the biggest 123 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 2: funder of terrorism on planet Earth, who provides more than 124 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 2: ninety percent of the funding to Hamas, who provides more 125 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 2: than ninety percent of the funding to Hesbela, who is 126 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:44,679 Speaker 2: responsible for killing hundreds, if not thousands, of Americans. Like unequivocally, 127 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 2: America would be better off if the Ayatola was no 128 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 2: longer the leader of Iran. Now, part of the reason 129 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 2: why the words regime change have a stigma connected to them, 130 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 2: it is many remembered the Iraq War, Remember the George W. 131 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 2: Bush administration, where regime change justified sending hundreds of thousands 132 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 2: of American troops to spend years fighting in a distant war. 133 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 2: And they don't want to see that. And by the way, 134 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 2: I don't want to see that. I think the Iraq 135 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 2: War was a mistake. I have said that for a 136 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 2: long long time. So when I say I support regime change, 137 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 2: it doesn't mean I want to send hundreds of thousands 138 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 2: of American troops onto the ground in Iran. What it 139 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 2: means is it is unequivocally in our interest to see 140 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:33,079 Speaker 2: the Iatola fall. I think the Iatola's fall ought to 141 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 2: be driven primarily by the Iranian people, and it's why 142 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 2: this uprising is so consequential because it is Iranians who 143 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:46,679 Speaker 2: are risking their lives to overturn this regime, this dictatorship. 144 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 2: But President Trump, I think is doing a good job 145 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 2: of number one, making clear that America stands with the people, 146 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:59,319 Speaker 2: stands with the protesters, and threatening accountability and what is 147 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 2: accountability look like like. He has made clear to the 148 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 2: government of Iran if you just sit there and begin 149 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 2: massacring the protesters, there will be real consequences. He hasn't 150 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 2: specified what they are, but the clear implication is the 151 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:16,960 Speaker 2: consequences will be military and nature. That deterrence, by the way, 152 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 2: military and nature is not send hundreds of thousands of 153 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 2: troops to the ground, but it may well be bombed 154 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 2: the crap out of something like there is And hopefully 155 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 2: that is a. 156 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: They are remembering the ran nuclear sites that we just 157 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 1: hit doing the impossible mission. Yep. And I do think 158 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 1: that's part of terms calculus, Like if you don't believe me, 159 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: just go look at your nuclear sites. Don't don't don't 160 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: test me here. Don't think I won't do this right? 161 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 2: And look, you combine President Trump taking out the Iranian 162 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 2: nuclear facilities, and you combine it with the raid and 163 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 2: arrest on Maduro, two incredibly audacious national security steps massively 164 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:02,599 Speaker 2: improve the national security of America. Both were incredible successes. 165 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 2: And in Iran, Israel has already taken out their air defenses. 166 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,320 Speaker 2: Their air defenses are essentially non existence. 167 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 1: Now. 168 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 2: Any time you engage in military action there is a risk. 169 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 2: I mean, we could have casualties, but Iran is in 170 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 2: a markedly wicked, weakened position, and so that threat is consequential. 171 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 2: I also hope and I believe, and I don't have 172 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 2: any classified information on this, so I'm not revealing anything, 173 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 2: but I hope and believe there's quite a bit that 174 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 2: is happening under the surface that we're not seeing in 175 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 2: terms of covert activities. I hope we're doing everything humanly 176 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 2: possible to help and support the protesters so that they 177 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 2: can overthrow the government, not us, but them. But we 178 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 2: can be contrasted to what happened when Barack Obama was president, 179 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 2: and I want to actually I want to compare the 180 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:58,320 Speaker 2: two and give you that contrast. So there was an 181 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 2: article in Tablet magazine several days ago, and it's called 182 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 2: is this Time Different? In Iran? By an author named 183 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 2: Peter throw and here's what he said. I want to 184 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 2: read this at some length because I think it's really 185 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 2: quite interesting and profound. In two thousand and nine, what 186 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,079 Speaker 2: shocked me about President Barack Obama's lack of support for 187 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,559 Speaker 2: the Green Movement protesters in Iran was the failure to 188 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 2: launch of the Commander in Chief's colossal ego. Here were 189 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 2: thousands of young Iranians filling the streets of Tehran to 190 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 2: appeal to him, even with a wistful pawn on his name. Obama, 191 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 2: Bama Bashid Obama be with us. Anyone in government at 192 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 2: the time knew that the Chicago un lacked nothing in 193 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 2: the way of ruthlessness, though he tended to save it 194 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 2: for republicans of the non Islamic variety. He applied the 195 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 2: word enemy to the GOP, but never to the Mullahs. 196 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 2: If righteous anger at the regime's murder of dissidence didn't 197 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 2: meet the threshold for Chicago rules, I thought surely vanity 198 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 2: might do the job. But opening to Iran had been 199 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 2: an early theme of his presidency. That same year, with 200 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 2: a mushy Persian New Year message and a secret letter 201 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 2: to Supreme Leader Ali Kameni of whom he knew little. Quote. 202 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 2: Despite his title of Supreme Leader, Kameni's authority wasn't absolute. 203 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 2: Obama preposterously intoned in his memoir of Promised Land in 204 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 2: twenty twenty, quote, he had to confer with a powerful 205 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:32,960 Speaker 2: council of clerics, the Guardian's council. Referring to the clerics, 206 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:39,079 Speaker 2: journalist Kareem Sajjapur observed that their average age is deceased. 207 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 2: Obama continued, that's pretty funny. Obama continued, quote, my first 208 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:49,439 Speaker 2: impulse was to express strong support for the demonstrators, Obama 209 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 2: records further in that memoir. But when I gathered my 210 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 2: national security team, are Iran experts advised against such a move. 211 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 2: According to them, any statement for me would likely backfire. 212 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 2: Activists inside Iran fear that supportive statements from the US 213 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 2: government would be seized upon to discredit their movement. 214 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 1: That's amazing. 215 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 2: The latter statement was ridiculous on its face, as the 216 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 2: demonstrators were openly pleading for outside support and from him specifically. 217 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 2: He may have been ignorant about how Ronald Reagan's harsh 218 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:26,680 Speaker 2: anti Moscow rhetoric boosted the morale of imprisoned dissidence like 219 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 2: Datan Sharansky. But what of that national security team? Obama 220 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 2: does not name them, but his administration would become known 221 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 2: for high level sentimentalists towards Iran, Rob Malley, Samantha Power, 222 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 2: Philip Gordon, sahir Naurazadree, and the diplomatic weaklings who would 223 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 2: negotiate the nuclear deal. So Obama issued a series of 224 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:55,319 Speaker 2: statements that he himself would describe as quote bland, bureaucratic, 225 00:13:56,320 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 2: and passive. Bitter that quote, I had to listen to 226 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 2: Republicans how that I was coddling a murderous regime. Actually 227 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 2: he was six years away from truly coddling it. Our 228 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 2: cerebral leader lamented that as president, quote, my heart was 229 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 2: now chained to strategic considerations and tactical analysis, my conviction 230 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 2: subject to counterintuitive arguments that in the most powerful office 231 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 2: on Earth, I had less freedom to say what I 232 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 2: meant and act on what I felt than I had 233 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 2: as a senator. In other words, what passed for his 234 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 2: convictions were easily defeated by an America bad briefing from 235 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 2: his subordinates. Now it goes on to say, numbers are 236 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 2: still inexact, but Tehran's thugs made about four thousand arrests 237 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 2: and killed hundreds to quell the two thousand and nine demonstration. 238 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 2: The Green Movements leaders were jailed globally, dissidents of all stripes, 239 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 2: and even Madonna and U two spoke out in favor 240 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 2: of Iranian democracy. By the way, where are Madonna and 241 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 2: you two right now? That's an interesting question. Was it 242 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 2: a bitter pill for a cool cat like Obama not 243 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 2: to be in that club? I suspect not, as he 244 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 2: harbored some sentimentality towards the Islamic Republic, having stated in 245 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 2: his first letter to its leader, as well as in 246 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 2: his tape video message on the occasion of Norah's the 247 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 2: Persian New Year, that he sought normalization with the state 248 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 2: sponsor of terror, a long step beyond better hope, hoping 249 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 2: for better relations with a Ran someday, as you might 250 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 2: do in a holiday. 251 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 1: Greeting, Sinta, I just gotta stop. And I do love 252 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 1: the revisionist history from Barack Obama. He's like, hey, I 253 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 1: wanted to stay with the people at Iran, but my 254 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: team told me not to. So therefore that's why I 255 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: didn't do it. Leaders lead like straight up. Leaders lead, 256 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: You lead that you're at the front of the ship. 257 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 1: You're in charge. It's it's supposed to be your foreign policy. 258 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: And then you look at what he actually did with 259 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 1: Iran and you understand he was aiding in a betting 260 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: and helping them stay on top in Iran. Like, let's 261 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 1: just be clear, we sent them money. Yeah. 262 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, Look to understand leader's lead. And by the way 263 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 2: Obama was leading. Obama was leading. There is there's practically 264 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 2: not an Islamist on planet Earth that he didn't coddle, 265 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 2: embrace and send money. 266 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 1: True, it was right right when he got elected. Remember 267 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 1: it was all about the buzzom world in a reset. 268 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 2: And by the way, when he was brand new in office, 269 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 2: he flew to as president, he flew to Cairo, to 270 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 2: the University of Cairo, and he gave a speech where 271 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 2: he said Iran has a right and he used the 272 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 2: word right to nuclear weapons nuclear technology. Actually didn't say weapons, 273 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 2: he said nuclear technology technology. That was absurd. And so 274 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 2: his claiming to be reluctant, I think is a brazen lie. 275 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 2: This is his ideology. And by the way, it came 276 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 2: to full flower under the Biden White House. And I 277 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 2: think the history for a lot of folks that may 278 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 2: not remember what was happening. Look, two thousand and nine 279 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 2: was sixteen seventeen years ago, was a long time ago. Yeah, 280 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 2: let me jump forward because the question then is okay, 281 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 2: what's different now? And let me jump forward to this article. 282 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 2: I think it's a really insightful article. So, after two 283 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,959 Speaker 2: weeks of the largest nationwide demonstrations in Iran since the 284 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 2: Islamic Revolution, what has changed and why? It has nothing 285 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 2: to do with negotiating tables and lots to do with battlespace. First, 286 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 2: let's note that this month's huge anti regime demonstrations in 287 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 2: more than one hundred Iranian cities were not ignited by 288 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 2: a single big domestic event like a blatantly stolen election 289 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:36,880 Speaker 2: or the murder of an innocent young woman. The Iranian 290 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 2: real has been crashing, passed a million to the dollar. 291 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 2: Let me say that again, one pasted one million to 292 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 2: a dollar. That's their exchange rate for weeks, and inflation 293 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 2: reached the point where the Tehran Bazaar was losing money 294 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 2: on every transaction, so it closed everything else. 295 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,160 Speaker 1: Every transaction. Just imagine having a story and everything you're 296 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 1: selling you're losing money on how would you stay in business. 297 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 1: That's why they closed down. 298 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 2: It's incredible because hyperinflation. If the value of the rial 299 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:14,639 Speaker 2: falls day after day after day, you sell something for 300 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 2: five million real and then the next day that five 301 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 2: million real is worth a fraction of what it was 302 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,640 Speaker 2: worth the day before. That's why they closed. Something else 303 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 2: drove the following events such as the South Pars energy 304 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:30,959 Speaker 2: strike and reported military affections. The battle space started shaping 305 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 2: up six years ago this month under Trump, with the 306 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 2: US killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps kud's forced 307 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 2: commander Kassam Salamani, the second most powerful man in Iran, 308 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 2: by US drones at Baghdad Airport. He had just arrived 309 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 2: from Damascus, where he was briefing former Syrian president Bashar 310 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,919 Speaker 2: al Assad on a plan to attack the US embassy 311 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 2: in Baghdad as it had been done in Tehran in 312 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 2: nineteen seventy nine. Iran's Iraqi katspaw Abu Madi al Mahandis 313 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 2: and ten senior Iranian briefers and bodyguards were also killed 314 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 2: in the strike. After twenty years a Bush, Obama and 315 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 2: Biden kid gloves, Tehran was legitimately frightened, and then after 316 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:27,120 Speaker 2: the Tehran directed atrocity against Israel in October twenty twenty three, 317 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 2: Israel killed Yaha Sinwar, mohammadif Hasrand, Nosrala, Ibrahima kil Hashim 318 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:43,679 Speaker 2: Safedin and Ismail Haniya, added IRGC safehouse in Tehran and 319 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 2: almost one hundred more in Lebanon and Gaza. Deprived of 320 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:54,159 Speaker 2: its decapitated Hezbela Pratorian guard, the Syrian bath Party didn't 321 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 2: trust its own people any more than the Bolavarian Maduro 322 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 2: trusted Venezuelans more than Cubans. The criminal Assad family fled 323 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:10,160 Speaker 2: to Moscow. Then last summer, the Israelian US air forces 324 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 2: wiped out much of the Iranian military's general staff and 325 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:19,159 Speaker 2: key nuclear sites. The pro Tehran, Moscow and Beijing dominoes 326 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 2: continue to fall. With the capture of Nicholas Maduro, the 327 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:27,120 Speaker 2: massacre of his Cuban protection detail, the seizure of Russian 328 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 2: ghost ships, and the spread of Starlik terminals in Iran, 329 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 2: Iranians have seen the regime and its backers exposed and 330 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 2: humiliated by an American administration, and they were quick to 331 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:45,120 Speaker 2: exploit this roll of the dice. Unlike Prohamas nihilists from 332 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 2: Berkeley to Dublin. They have hit their streets in millions 333 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 2: without a single kefia or aluja Akbar, motivated by American 334 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 2: successes against their regime and its effeckless backers. At the 335 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 2: time of writing, the regime has turned off the Internet 336 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:11,919 Speaker 2: and all landlines, and Kameni has engaged emerged from a 337 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:16,120 Speaker 2: two day silence to express defiance. This is no surprise 338 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 2: to anyone who knows that Kameni's greatest fear is moderation 339 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:25,200 Speaker 2: that causes the regime to bend and then break, as 340 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:29,679 Speaker 2: expressed in Alex Vatanka's The Battle of the Iyatolas in Iran, 341 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 2: Kameni became obsessed with the prospect of an Iranian Gorbachev 342 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:41,440 Speaker 2: who would impose reforms and usher in a USSR style collapse. 343 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,440 Speaker 2: The more so because this was addressed by Tom Friedman, 344 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 2: a Jewish American journalist, in a nineteen ninety six column 345 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:56,439 Speaker 2: titled Waiting for Iyatola Gorbachev after he visited Iran that 346 00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 2: pressed all of the leader's buttons, his defiance to continue 347 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 2: as long as he is alive or in power, which 348 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 2: may not be long, and listen to this because he 349 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 2: faces two threats. The one in front of him is 350 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 2: the unpredictable Donald Trump, who has already shed Iranian blood 351 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:21,399 Speaker 2: and has promised to rescue the Iranian people. The one 352 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 2: behind him is the IRGC, which holds all the firepower 353 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 2: in Iran, and which knows, as Mohammed am Dinijad do, 354 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 2: that the Mallahs are despised by nearly the entire population. 355 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 2: They are unlikely to lay down their guns or give 356 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,400 Speaker 2: up the forty percent of the Iranian economy they control. 357 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 2: They are led by Ahmed Vahiti and internationally sanctioned terrorists. 358 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 2: Quote terrorists are acts was a wise saying of one 359 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,119 Speaker 2: of my counter terrorist colleagues at the CIA. She didn't 360 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,639 Speaker 2: just mean that terror plots ruined our weekends and sleep schedules. 361 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 2: She meant that terrorists are psychopathic, disloyal, and venal creatures 362 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,159 Speaker 2: who could and did mistreated each other and turn against 363 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:14,640 Speaker 2: each other. The top ranks of the IRGC are full 364 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,920 Speaker 2: of them, and this is the final point what might 365 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 2: lead the IRGC to sideline or overthrow Kameeni and his 366 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:30,080 Speaker 2: weak president Masud Pezeshkian. Two kinds of strike, an anti 367 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 2: regime blow from the United States or the labor variety 368 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:40,399 Speaker 2: that would shut down Iranians Iran's energy sector if both occur, 369 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:46,679 Speaker 2: my money is on a coup and goodbye Mullahs. And 370 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 2: this is from Peter Thurreau, spent twenty years in the 371 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 2: US government and the CIA. I got to say, look, 372 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 2: I appreciated that that article because it provides a level 373 00:23:56,440 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 2: of context and detail, drawing a real difference between what 374 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 2: happens when you have a weak pro Islamist president like 375 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 2: Barack Obama or for that matter, Joe Biden in the 376 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 2: White House versus a strong pro America president like Donald Trump, 377 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 2: and I think the terrain is totally different, which is why, 378 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 2: by the way, Trump is saying to the protesters, keep 379 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,919 Speaker 2: a list of the names of any soldiers who are 380 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,719 Speaker 2: committing atrocities, because there is going to be accountability. That 381 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 2: carrot and stick is really powerful for deterring that kind 382 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 2: of horrific action. 383 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 1: You know, there's part of this article, and I think 384 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 1: we should talk about this for a moment, because there 385 00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 1: is I had at dinner the other night with some 386 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 1: oil executives and they were frustrated a little bit because 387 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,639 Speaker 1: the price of oil has come down, and one of 388 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,160 Speaker 1: the people at the table was also White House, and 389 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 1: they said, what you don't understand is that our energy 390 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 1: inpendent's policy is also a national security policy because when 391 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 1: you take away the money that is to the leadership 392 00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:01,639 Speaker 1: in Iran, to Vladimir Putin in Russia. Venezuela is another 393 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 1: example of this, right, then what the money that they 394 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 1: need to survive and to hold on to power and 395 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 1: to pay their forces to keep them in power and 396 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 1: to go after their citizens just completely disappears. That is 397 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:18,639 Speaker 1: part of I think what Donald Trump, and it was 398 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 1: very interesting to hear this kind of back and forth. 399 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:22,960 Speaker 1: There's like, hey, I'm sorry that the price of per 400 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,040 Speaker 1: barrel is not where you want it, but it's helping 401 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,439 Speaker 1: American families a lower gas prices, and it's a national 402 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,439 Speaker 1: security thing for us as well. And it's allowing some 403 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 1: of these horrible people in the world to start tetering 404 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,120 Speaker 1: a little bit because they don't have the cash flow 405 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 1: they had two three four years ago under democratic leadership. 406 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 2: I think that's right. There's also a balance that President 407 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,359 Speaker 2: Trump and the Trump administration are trying to strike, which 408 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 2: is we've seen the price of oil drop dramatically from 409 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:52,719 Speaker 2: one hundred bucks a barrel to down just around sixty 410 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 2: bucks of barrel, a little bit lower. That has weakened 411 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,880 Speaker 2: almost every bad guy in the world. That is weak 412 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,200 Speaker 2: in Russia, that is week in Deran, that is weak 413 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 2: in Venezuela, and Maduro because it is I guess God 414 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,679 Speaker 2: has a sense of humor in that that many of 415 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:12,080 Speaker 2: the worst players on planet Earth depend upon oil revenues. 416 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,119 Speaker 2: There are in many ways Petro tyrants. Now Duro's not 417 00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,960 Speaker 2: Maduro is innate number two, five seven. 418 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 1: Whatever, But he used sticking out with p Diddy. 419 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,760 Speaker 2: But I'll say this, Look, there is a balance because 420 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 2: from a US national security interest, Look, oil and gas 421 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 2: and energy are powerful weapons against our enemies and to 422 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 2: buttress America. But you don't want to slash the price 423 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:43,159 Speaker 2: of oil so dramatically that you devastate US producers. And 424 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 2: as you know, I talked to I represent Texas, I 425 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,960 Speaker 2: talk to a lot of US producers, and I will say, 426 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 2: at down around sixty seventy dollars a barrel, you see 427 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 2: what we've got now, which is gas prices at about 428 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 2: two three bucks a gallon, depending on what part of 429 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,400 Speaker 2: the country you're in. Now, if you're in California, there's 430 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 2: still four five bucks a gallon. 431 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,760 Speaker 1: But that's that's on you for a living in California 432 00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 1: voting for those nut jobs. 433 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,200 Speaker 2: But again that's Davenew some of the Democrats fault. But 434 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 2: here here in Texas, you fill up your tank, it's 435 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 2: you know, somewhere between two and three bucks typically is 436 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,479 Speaker 2: what you're paying right now. I think that's a sweet 437 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 2: spot is sixty to seventy dollars. Where it get lowers 438 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 2: under Biden, when we had one hundred dollars oil, you 439 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,879 Speaker 2: were seeing four five, six seven dollars a gallon a gasoline. 440 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 2: That really hurts consumers. 441 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, I say, crushing middle and lower class families even 442 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 1: more than anybody else. 443 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 2: I will say this, if you see oil prices plummet, 444 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,960 Speaker 2: so let's say they drop from the sixties down to 445 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 2: say the forties. 446 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,080 Speaker 1: Are below, it hurts that lot of people. 447 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 2: That's when it starts doing real damage, in particular to 448 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 2: the independent producers, the small guys in West Texas and 449 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 2: the Permian. That's when you see drilling basically stop. And 450 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,879 Speaker 2: by the way, the majors will be fine. The x 451 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 2: on mobiles, the Chevrons, I mean, look, those are companies 452 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 2: that literally have more revenue assets than most countries on 453 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:06,320 Speaker 2: planet Earth. They're that massive, So the majors will survive 454 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 2: a drop. But what happens if we see forty dollars oil, 455 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 2: You'll see bankruptcy bankruptcies throughout the Permian basin of the 456 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 2: small producers. And when those guys go away, those are 457 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 2: the guys driving production. And what it does is it 458 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:27,200 Speaker 2: weakens America's ability to produce oil and makes us more 459 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,760 Speaker 2: dependent on foreign adversary. So I think what President Trump 460 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:32,760 Speaker 2: of the administration is trying to do is stay in 461 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 2: a sweet spot where oil is low enough that our 462 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 2: enemies are weakened, but not so low that we're devastating 463 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 2: us small businesses. And I think they're doing a pretty 464 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 2: good job of trying to balance those two factors well. 465 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 1: And I was talking to some small refineries and that 466 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:52,200 Speaker 1: was exactly their concern center was, Hey, these small refineries 467 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,720 Speaker 1: that keep these small towns going, that employ a lot 468 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 1: of people. They want to make sure that they're okay 469 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 1: as well. And like you said, that's where this administration 470 00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,480 Speaker 1: came and asked away both ends of this, because you 471 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 1: don't want to hurt mom and pops. You don't want 472 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:05,920 Speaker 1: to hurt the small ones like you said, the big 473 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 1: ones will be okay, but these small refineries that literally 474 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,120 Speaker 1: power these small towns where they are, you don't want 475 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 1: them to get hurt either. 476 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 2: Yeah. And look, in the last several weeks, with everything 477 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:20,160 Speaker 2: happening in Iran, everything happening in Venezuela, I've been reaching 478 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,400 Speaker 2: out to energy leaders, primarily in Texas. So I've had 479 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 2: conversations with the CEO of Chevron and the CEO of Valero, 480 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,440 Speaker 2: the biggest refiner in America, and I've had conversations with 481 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 2: a number of smaller e E and P expiration and 482 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 2: production independence in West Texas, and they've expressed optimism. Number 483 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 2: one in terms of Venezuela. Venezuela, as we've talked about, 484 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 2: has the highest proven reserves of oil in the world. 485 00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:54,160 Speaker 2: No country has more. But the Venezuelan infrastructure is completely collapsed. 486 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:58,240 Speaker 2: Communism is not capable of producing what they should and 487 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,120 Speaker 2: so Venezuela right now is producing about a million barrels 488 00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 2: a day, which is a fraction of what their capacity is. 489 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,480 Speaker 2: I will say I I asked one of the major CEOs, 490 00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,880 Speaker 2: I said, okay, what would the time frame be to 491 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 2: take Venezuela from one million barrels a day to three 492 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:20,680 Speaker 2: million barrels a day. And the response was ten years. 493 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:24,479 Speaker 2: That it doesn't happen over like, it would take tens 494 00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 2: of billions of dollars of investment, and perhaps north of 495 00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:30,680 Speaker 2: one hundred billion dollars. Now you would recoup that, but 496 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 2: the infrastructure has so degraded. And I said, all right, 497 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,480 Speaker 2: so ten years to go from one million a day 498 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 2: to three million a day, how about just from one 499 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:42,120 Speaker 2: to two And the answer was five to seven years. 500 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:45,640 Speaker 2: So the first millions, it's. 501 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 1: An infrastrucstruct it's just straight up infrastructure. 502 00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 2: Right, and you could keep going up from there. I 503 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:56,560 Speaker 2: also am talking to refiners. So so Venezuela produces what 504 00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 2: is called heavy sour crude, which is a different sort 505 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,320 Speaker 2: of crude than in West Texas, they produce what's called 506 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 2: light sweet crude. You refine them very very differently. Now, 507 00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 2: it so happens that the refineries that were built to 508 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,880 Speaker 2: handle heavy sour crude are along the Gulf coast. They're 509 00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 2: in Texas and Louisiana, and so we've got the capacity. 510 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 2: I've been told that the Gulf coast refineries could almost 511 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:25,360 Speaker 2: overnight refine an additional two hundred and fifty thousand barrels 512 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,239 Speaker 2: of the heavy crude from Venezuela. Now, interestingly enough, when 513 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 2: I've asked the refiners, okay, what would the trade off be, 514 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,360 Speaker 2: what would the impact be? Say for West Texas producers, 515 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,760 Speaker 2: the refiners at least were not that concerned about it, 516 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,240 Speaker 2: and they said, look, the other producers of heavy crude 517 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 2: are Canada and so the Tarsans in Alberta. And I said, 518 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 2: look more Venezuelan crude would impact Canada and actually Mexico. 519 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 2: Mexico also produces similar crude to what Venezuela and Canada produce. 520 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 2: And so that in terms of the impact, those are 521 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 2: the trade offs. Those that's the kind of decision making 522 00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 2: the Trump administration is engaged in right now. 523 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 1: It's a new year, twenty twenty six. You've probably heard 524 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 1: the name bitcoin and cryptocurrency. So the question so many 525 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 1: people have is is it safe? And is it something 526 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 1: that I should be invested in. It's a question I 527 00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,920 Speaker 1: want to get answered for you today in joining me 528 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,720 Speaker 1: now to talk about that. As a co founder of 529 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 1: Bitcoin Ira Chris Klin, Chris, I appreciate you being here, 530 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,560 Speaker 1: and it is pretty cool to see what's happened in 531 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,800 Speaker 1: the crypto space. It has become normal. It now can 532 00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,560 Speaker 1: be a part of your IRA. The federal government has 533 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,640 Speaker 1: changed the rules. They're accepting cryptocurrency like it's a stock. 534 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,520 Speaker 3: Yes, absolutely, and it's really driven itself into a mainstream space. 535 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,200 Speaker 3: I remember a decade ago when we first started bitcoin 536 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 3: IRA and everybody was like, are you crazy kid, You're 537 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,680 Speaker 3: putting bitcoin in retirement accounts? Is this even possible? And 538 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,240 Speaker 3: you fast forward to where we're at today, where countries 539 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 3: are building stockpiles, corporations are building stockpiles. Strategy, for example, 540 00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,880 Speaker 3: is pretty much its entire business models on this. It's 541 00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,400 Speaker 3: a piece of diversification that every major player in the 542 00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,880 Speaker 3: space and economics is looking at, and so should too, 543 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,479 Speaker 3: the individual sovereignty of the average American looking to put 544 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:10,520 Speaker 3: it inside of their retirement. 545 00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 1: You guys actually have a really cool stat that you 546 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,560 Speaker 1: told me about at dinner, and that is that your 547 00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:20,040 Speaker 1: clients seventy five percent were born before nineteen seventy six. 548 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 1: So the idea that you may be missed out on 549 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:24,400 Speaker 1: this or if you're a little older, it's a young 550 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 1: man's game and crypto that is also just not true. 551 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 3: That's definitely one of the myths I wanted to come 552 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,280 Speaker 3: to bunk with you in your audience, isn't this isn't 553 00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:36,120 Speaker 3: our grandfather's economy and grandfathers are buying bitcoin and putting 554 00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,600 Speaker 3: it inside of their retirement for long term holdings, especially 555 00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 3: now that they're thinking about inheritance and handing some of 556 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 3: these things down. But yeah, that was actually shocking to me. 557 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,480 Speaker 3: We've discovered that in twenty eighteen that seventy five percent 558 00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:50,120 Speaker 3: of them were older than my parents' generation. And what 559 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,560 Speaker 3: we found from surveying all of them was this is 560 00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:54,640 Speaker 3: something that they think is new age and that I 561 00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,880 Speaker 3: think almost every American, especially older ones, has a genuine 562 00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,520 Speaker 3: concern of watching what's happened to the US over the 563 00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:03,080 Speaker 3: last four or five decades. And there's always been gold 564 00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,240 Speaker 3: and silver's a potential hedge, land, real estate, these scarce 565 00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:09,240 Speaker 3: assets and bitcoin. While it may seem oh, that's digital 566 00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,400 Speaker 3: and it's different, it's scarce. There's only twenty one million 567 00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 3: assets of bitcoin that will ever be mined. Nineteen and 568 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,759 Speaker 3: a half million have been mined so far, and you 569 00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:19,719 Speaker 3: and I actually won't live our kids will probably live 570 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:21,840 Speaker 3: to see the last one get mined. This is something 571 00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:23,319 Speaker 3: you know, we're in a world of abundance since I 572 00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:25,200 Speaker 3: was born in nineteen eighty five. It's abundance. We just 573 00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,520 Speaker 3: printed and printed and printed more. This is a moment 574 00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:29,080 Speaker 3: in time where we may be able to revert back 575 00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,440 Speaker 3: to scarcity, and there'll be a day we're just saying 576 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,520 Speaker 3: I have one Bitcoin will be life changing. 577 00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:35,440 Speaker 1: Chris. I hope a lot of people that are watching this, 578 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:37,880 Speaker 1: you guys, will go and find out more. It is 579 00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,920 Speaker 1: amazing what you can do in your retirement account now, 580 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 1: just like your other investments with bitcoin cryptocurrency. Find out 581 00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 1: more right now at bitcoinira dot com, slash ben that's 582 00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:55,000 Speaker 1: bitcoin ira dot com, slash ben and see what cryptocurrency 583 00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,840 Speaker 1: can do for your portfolio. I want to ask you 584 00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,920 Speaker 1: one final question before we wrap here. We talked a 585 00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:02,840 Speaker 1: lot about Venezuela in the last couple of shows. We 586 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:06,399 Speaker 1: kind of know the state of play there. We talked 587 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,919 Speaker 1: a lot about it Ran today. Can you give us 588 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:12,280 Speaker 1: for everyone listening just a quick update on what's happening 589 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 1: in Cuba. We've mentioned it several times of how things 590 00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,400 Speaker 1: could be teetering there. Give a little bit of an 591 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,000 Speaker 1: update for people that so they understand what's happening on 592 00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:22,480 Speaker 1: the ground there as we wrap things up. 593 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,040 Speaker 2: So, look, the Cuban regime has been a communist dictatorship 594 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:29,799 Speaker 2: since nineteen fifty nine. As you know, that for me 595 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:33,360 Speaker 2: is not some abstract statement because my family was directly 596 00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:35,319 Speaker 2: involved in him. My dad was a kid. He was 597 00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:39,440 Speaker 2: fourteen when he began fighting in the Cuban Revolution. And 598 00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,800 Speaker 2: to this day, my dad turns eighty seven in March, 599 00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,960 Speaker 2: and he told me, he said, look the revolution. He said, 600 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,359 Speaker 2: it was fourteen and fifteen year old boys who he said, 601 00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,960 Speaker 2: we're too stupid to know any better. And as you know, 602 00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,239 Speaker 2: you know my dad. Well, but when I want to 603 00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,840 Speaker 2: give my father grief, I'll call my dad a communist gorilla. 604 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:02,879 Speaker 2: He gets very mad. 605 00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:05,239 Speaker 1: I have him feeling that. So during game night, when 606 00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,239 Speaker 1: you guys are playing games, I just I feel like 607 00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:08,960 Speaker 1: that's one of that's gonna get used the most. 608 00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, and he will say I was not a communist. 609 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,839 Speaker 2: I was never a communist. He was a kid and 610 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:18,799 Speaker 2: they were fighting against Batista, who was a dictator. He 611 00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:24,000 Speaker 2: was corrupt, and Batista's thugs through my father in prison 612 00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,239 Speaker 2: and they tortured him. And so when my dad came 613 00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 2: to America, he was fleeing Batista, and he came to 614 00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:32,040 Speaker 2: Texas at eighteen with nothing, and he couldn't speak English. 615 00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:36,960 Speaker 2: He came seeking freedom. His younger sister is my Theosnia, 616 00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,400 Speaker 2: and might theos Sonia. I adore my theos Sonia. I 617 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,640 Speaker 2: call her my Theoloka. She's my crazy aunt. She is 618 00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:47,320 Speaker 2: a fireball. She was there in fifty nine when Castro 619 00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:51,760 Speaker 2: took over, and the young people, the Cubans didn't realize 620 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:54,160 Speaker 2: Castro was a communist. They just thought it was a 621 00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,760 Speaker 2: people's revolution against Batista. He took over and he clared 622 00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:01,680 Speaker 2: he was a communist. He began firing squads, he began 623 00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:05,240 Speaker 2: executing anyone who disagreed with him against seizing people's lands. 624 00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:10,479 Speaker 2: And and my Theosagnia fought in the counter revolution. Was 625 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,360 Speaker 2: that there was a whole counter revolution of the people 626 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,719 Speaker 2: trying to fight back. And my theoso Onia ended up 627 00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:19,279 Speaker 2: being thrown in prison and tortured by Castro's goons. So 628 00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:22,879 Speaker 2: I take it very personally when it comes to communism, 629 00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:26,200 Speaker 2: it strikes very close to home. If you look at 630 00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:29,440 Speaker 2: the history of Cuba, starting early on from when Castro 631 00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:33,920 Speaker 2: took over and made Cuba a communist dictatorship, for decades, 632 00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:38,319 Speaker 2: Cuba was effectively a satellite state of the Soviet Union, 633 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,839 Speaker 2: remember the whole Cuban Mission missile crisis under JFK, and 634 00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:45,560 Speaker 2: the Soviets provided them a financial lifeline. Look, if you're 635 00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:50,280 Speaker 2: a communist, you destroy the economy. That happens all across 636 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,120 Speaker 2: the world. Communism is a great way to destroy jobs 637 00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:56,880 Speaker 2: and make your people incredibly poor. Cuba went from it 638 00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 2: was the number one sugar producer in all of Latin America, 639 00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,279 Speaker 2: and they just destroyed the sugar industry and everything else 640 00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:07,920 Speaker 2: and brought massive poverty to Cuba. They survived because the 641 00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,320 Speaker 2: Soviet Union sent them money, and they sent them money 642 00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:14,160 Speaker 2: because the Soviets wanted a military satellite just ninety miles 643 00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:18,360 Speaker 2: off the coast of America. Now, when we won the 644 00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:22,480 Speaker 2: Cold War, when the Soviet Union collapsed, suddenly that financial 645 00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:27,040 Speaker 2: lifeline disappeared. And what happened was Venezuela stepped into the 646 00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,560 Speaker 2: breach and you had Huo Chavez and then later Maduro, 647 00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:35,440 Speaker 2: both communist dictators who destroyed the economy in Venezuela, just 648 00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:39,040 Speaker 2: like Castro had in Cuba. Chavez and Maduro did the 649 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:43,360 Speaker 2: same thing in Venezuela and Venezuela had a corrupt bargain 650 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:45,880 Speaker 2: where they were sent oil which they had a ton of, 651 00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,560 Speaker 2: and they would send money, which they had a lot of, 652 00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,719 Speaker 2: in exchange for selling the oil, and what they would 653 00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:54,840 Speaker 2: get back is is enforcers in thugs. There was a 654 00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:59,440 Speaker 2: reason Morduro's entire protection detail were Cuban guards. And you 655 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:01,440 Speaker 2: know in the article I just ran, it talked about 656 00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:05,200 Speaker 2: how one of the reasons is Maduro didn't trust Venezuelans 657 00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:06,960 Speaker 2: because he was such a terrible leader that he was 658 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,719 Speaker 2: afraid Venezuelans would turn on him, which is why he 659 00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:16,319 Speaker 2: used Cuban enforcers instead. Well, with Venezuela, with Maduro having 660 00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:19,320 Speaker 2: been arrested, no longer in power, Venezuela is no longer 661 00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,360 Speaker 2: sending oil and no longer sending money to Cuba, and 662 00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,040 Speaker 2: the Cuban economy is in freefall, just like the Iranian 663 00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:29,120 Speaker 2: economy is in freefall. The regime is incredibly precarious. And 664 00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,799 Speaker 2: I'll tell you what's keeping it alive right now, which 665 00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:35,440 Speaker 2: is Mexico is still sending oil to Cuba. And my 666 00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:38,040 Speaker 2: hope is the Trump administration is going to lean on 667 00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:42,279 Speaker 2: Mexico to stop that oil going to Cuba. I think 668 00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:46,880 Speaker 2: that may be the single most important piece to nudge 669 00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,320 Speaker 2: Cuba beyond the tipping point, much like Iran is, and 670 00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:55,279 Speaker 2: I think the communist dictatorship is terrified that they will 671 00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:56,240 Speaker 2: lose control. 672 00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:56,560 Speaker 1: Now. 673 00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:02,080 Speaker 2: The counterbalance to that is the Cuban regime has a 674 00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:08,120 Speaker 2: massive oppressive machinery that has been in place for decades, 675 00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:12,680 Speaker 2: and that machinery can be really brutal, and so I 676 00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:18,200 Speaker 2: think the vulnerability right now is that when people face 677 00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,959 Speaker 2: a collapsing economy, they get angry and they can turn 678 00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:25,239 Speaker 2: on their leaders. And so I think the Trump administration, 679 00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:28,560 Speaker 2: I think President Trump is encouraging that. But it is 680 00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,160 Speaker 2: the economic factor, more than anything that I think is 681 00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,640 Speaker 2: putting the regime in a massively fragile position. 682 00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:36,920 Speaker 1: It's gonna be very interesting to see what happens in 683 00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,480 Speaker 1: the days and weeks ahead on this, because, like you said, 684 00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:42,080 Speaker 1: it's teetering at the moment. How long can you teeter 685 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,120 Speaker 1: before the people also rise up, which is what we've 686 00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:48,279 Speaker 1: seen in Venezuela. It's also what we've seen certainly day 687 00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:51,280 Speaker 1: to day in Iran. And the question is what happens 688 00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:53,319 Speaker 1: X and Cuba. We're going to cover it all here 689 00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,120 Speaker 1: don't forget. We do this show Monday, Wednesday and Friday. 690 00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,919 Speaker 1: So hit that subscriber auto download button so you don't 691 00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,280 Speaker 1: miss an episode. You can tell Siria Alexa play Verdict 692 00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,080 Speaker 1: with Ted Cruz and that will happen. And you can 693 00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,880 Speaker 1: also watch the show now on YouTube or on Facebook. 694 00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:09,880 Speaker 1: Makes you subscribe on YouTube and you can watch the 695 00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,040 Speaker 1: show on the big screen in your living room or 696 00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:14,279 Speaker 1: on your phone wherever you want to on demand as 697 00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,000 Speaker 1: well in the center. I will see you back here 698 00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:16,880 Speaker 1: Wednesday morning.