Speaker 1: Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. I am
Speaker 1: Ryan Wardley, joined as I have been the last couple
Speaker 1: of weeks by my good friend and betting expert in
Speaker 1: college basketball.
Speaker 2: It's PJ Glasser of BETQL. PJ. We are here.
Speaker 1: It is the final for this upcoming weekend and I
Speaker 1: will give you a moment here. Your Crimson Tide are
Speaker 1: in the Final four for the first time in school history.
Speaker 2: How are you feeling?
Speaker 3: Feeling great? Worm?
Speaker 4: I would have felt a lot better if I had
Speaker 4: bet on them to make it to the Final four,
Speaker 4: you know what I mean. I didn't think they'd get
Speaker 4: past UNC. I didn't think they would beat Clemson either.
Speaker 4: I thought that was gonna be Arizona in that Elite game,
Speaker 4: Elite eight game. But I can't believe it. This is
Speaker 4: why the tournament is the best, you know. I feel
Speaker 4: like they've had way better teams the last three or
Speaker 4: four years. They were the number one overall team in
Speaker 4: the tournament last year. They were a two seed two
Speaker 4: years before that, and those teams got out in Sweet sixteen.
Speaker 4: And now here's this team who still on kemp Palm
Speaker 4: rank over one hundred on defense. But it's that offense
Speaker 4: that's carrying them with those three pointers, and uh, it's
Speaker 4: it's incredible.
Speaker 3: It's we have a I can't remember a time where
Speaker 3: I really in.
Speaker 4: The Final four where we've had two games where it
Speaker 4: feels like we're just on a collision course with Yukon
Speaker 4: and Purdue, right, and you know that just the way
Speaker 4: college basketball works, it just like one of these underdogs,
Speaker 4: it feels like is gonna give one of these favorites
Speaker 4: a game.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 3: We don't know which one, We don't know how close
Speaker 3: it's gonna.
Speaker 4: Be, but like I just you just feel like either
Speaker 4: Bama or NC State is gonna keep it close with
Speaker 4: one of these favorites.
Speaker 3: So it's interesting.
Speaker 1: Because like I think Yukon is better than Perdue, but
Speaker 1: Bama is better than NC State. So it's like the
Speaker 1: better underdog is matched against the better favorite. And I
Speaker 1: I would if I had to pick one, I'd probably
Speaker 1: pick Bama just because you can make the case maybe
Speaker 1: they hit twenty threes because like that this is an
Speaker 1: offense that is capable of, like you can just go
Speaker 1: toe to toe because they're not gonna stop you con
Speaker 1: at all defensively. But maybe they just get really hot
Speaker 1: from three, and that gives them a shot like it's
Speaker 1: it's harder for me to make the case I think
Speaker 1: with NC State. But before we dive into the final four,
Speaker 1: I want to ask you if there are any other
Speaker 1: takeaways from this past weekend Sweet sixteen Elite eight that
Speaker 1: really stood out to you as a major surprise or
Speaker 1: a development that you really didn't see coming.
Speaker 4: I mean, I think the biggest takeaway for me, worm
Speaker 4: is it doesn't matter how big a favorite you are,
Speaker 4: it doesn't matter how talented you are when you get
Speaker 4: into the Sweet sixteen Elite eight, if you don't hit shots,
Speaker 4: you're gonna go home. Right, saw that with Marquette, saw
Speaker 4: that with Duke, We saw that with Arizona. We saw
Speaker 4: that with a bunch of these teams that are really
Speaker 4: good offenses. But all it takes is one off night
Speaker 4: and you can you can go home. So I think
Speaker 4: that was my takeaway, right, It felt like there were
Speaker 4: a ton of games Illinois certainly you could throw in
Speaker 4: there too. I mean, when you come went on that
Speaker 4: thirty off to run talk about like elite offenses like Duke, Marquette,
Speaker 4: Aras like these teams are top ten in the country
Speaker 4: in offense and had abysmal night shooting. So I think
Speaker 4: I think that was really the big takeaway, Right, It's
Speaker 4: not like these teams really had bad looks. It's not
Speaker 4: like these shots were contested. They were just missing open shots.
Speaker 4: So we know basketball sometimes it's just, I mean, it's
Speaker 4: as easy as who make shots and who misses shots.
Speaker 4: And it felt like that that really decided a bunch
Speaker 4: of these games and these teams that we have in
Speaker 4: the final four, you know, I mean a bunch of them.
Speaker 4: Certainly Bama hit their shots in their last two games.
Speaker 4: Perdue was great on offense against Gonzaga, was better in
Speaker 4: the second half against Tennessee NC State, fantastic second half
Speaker 4: against Duke, and then Yukon, I mean, just all levels
Speaker 4: offense and defense was a fantastic.
Speaker 1: I was not able to watch Saturday ad something come up,
Speaker 1: but I was following the Yukon Illinois game as best
Speaker 1: I could, and I saw I literally looked at it
Speaker 1: and it was twenty eight twenty three. And then the
Speaker 1: next time I because I wasn't able to check my
Speaker 1: phone for a while, it was fifty three twenty three,
Speaker 1: and I.
Speaker 2: Was like, is there a typo?
Speaker 1: Like how Is that even possible because I hadn't watched
Speaker 1: the run and I went back and watched it later
Speaker 1: and it was just like jaw on the floor, like
Speaker 1: like they didn't do that against you know, Stetson. They
Speaker 1: did that against Illinois in the Elite eight. It's really
Speaker 1: one of the most remarkable things I think I've ever
Speaker 1: seen in a college basketball game. To your point about
Speaker 1: like the making shots and stuff, it seemed like that
Speaker 1: was how Clemson was advancing, was they kept getting teams
Speaker 1: not making their shots against them. And you know, I
Speaker 1: kept picking against Clemson every single round and it kept
Speaker 1: backfiring because Arizona would just go cold and keep on
Speaker 1: firing and it wasn't working before we get into the
Speaker 1: final four. Are there any lessons you feel like you
Speaker 1: learned from who these final four teams are in terms
Speaker 1: of how you would bet the tournament next year, in
Speaker 1: terms of how you would fill out a bracket next year,
Speaker 1: just in terms of as a fan, like this is
Speaker 1: something I would remember going for. Are there any lessons
Speaker 1: learned from this group of final four teams and how
Speaker 1: the tournament has played out to date?
Speaker 4: It's a good question, I think something that I try
Speaker 4: and take with me year to year when I'm picking
Speaker 4: my final four is that every year worm when we
Speaker 4: get to this point, it's never before teams that everybody
Speaker 4: think it's gonna be right. I mean, you could throw
Speaker 4: out like a couple of different scenarios of who people liked,
Speaker 4: but for a majority, it was either Yukon Auburn, it
Speaker 4: was Arizona, UNC, it was Houston, Duke, Marquette, Kentucky, or
Speaker 4: it was Purdue, Gonzaga, Tennessee. Create right, it was like
Speaker 4: a majority of like those kind of four teams. Very
Speaker 4: few had NC State, not a lot had Bama. So
Speaker 4: that's the way it goes. I know, when people are
Speaker 4: filling out a bracket, and certainly people like us who
Speaker 4: watch the regular season in college basketball, you're going through
Speaker 4: these games and you're like, I know, I'm not supposed
Speaker 4: to pick the games that everybody else, but it's like
Speaker 4: who's gonna beat Arizona.
Speaker 3: On the bottom half of this region?
Speaker 4: Like who's gonna like upset you know, like these kinds
Speaker 4: of things. So I mean that's the beauty of the tournament.
Speaker 4: That's the beauty of these one and done games. So
Speaker 4: it's different year after year, the kind of teams that
Speaker 4: we get that go into the final four. I will say,
Speaker 4: with the new era that we're in with college basketball,
Speaker 4: it is interesting that the last two years we have
Speaker 4: had teams like Miami and Bama kind of make it
Speaker 4: to the tournament, right, So I would say maybe those
Speaker 4: are something to look out for. I think everybody thought
Speaker 4: that team that was great on offense this year and
Speaker 4: wasn't good on defense that to make the final four
Speaker 4: was going to be Kentucky. So historically in the tournament,
Speaker 4: I mean, those kind of teams like if you're that
Speaker 4: bad on defense like Miami and Bama were, usually don't
Speaker 4: get this far. So that's happening back to back years. Obviously,
Speaker 4: this era with the transfer portal and with offenses and
Speaker 4: with all the three pointers that we get. If these
Speaker 4: teams like Miami last year surviving the Drake Game, Bama
Speaker 4: this year surviving the Grand Canyon Game, those teams, when
Speaker 4: they have those games where they're not good on offense,
Speaker 4: if they're able to survive that, you see the end result.
Speaker 4: I mean, they're offenses, they're good enough to compete with anybody,
Speaker 4: and if they're hitting their shots, it can take them
Speaker 4: all the way to the final four. So probably my
Speaker 4: two biggest takeaways, right, never pick the same four teams
Speaker 4: that everybody picked, because it never happens that way.
Speaker 3: And then you know, I'm.
Speaker 4: Not necessarily saying next year to take one of these
Speaker 4: Bama Miami type teams, but certainly something to keep an
Speaker 4: eye on. And I think we have to take those
Speaker 4: kind of teams a little more seriously moving forward, because
Speaker 4: I mean, they've shown us that this is kind of
Speaker 4: the new era of hoops. Like if you can score,
Speaker 4: you can beat anybody. You might not win the championship,
Speaker 4: but you can make it to the final four.
Speaker 1: And realistically, it's almost like three teams made their first
Speaker 1: final fours. I know Purdue and nci State made them
Speaker 1: in the early eighties, but it was an entirely different
Speaker 1: sport back then, really, you know, considering how long it's
Speaker 1: been for them, tournament expanded since then, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: it was just a different game back when Purdue was
Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty and NC State nineteen eighty three, I think,
Speaker 1: And obviously everybody you know has seen clips of that
Speaker 1: NC State eighty three run, so we're familiar that they
Speaker 1: have been there before, but really a different game back then.
Speaker 1: And of course Bama never having made it before and
Speaker 1: then going up against the team that just won it
Speaker 1: all last year and looks like another behemoth. You know,
Speaker 1: it is it is funny like in terms of filling
Speaker 1: out the bracket, I you know, it's like I never
Speaker 1: gonna be the guy who takes the number one overall
Speaker 1: seed because ever too many people are gonna take it
Speaker 1: and it just feels like you're not gonna win your
Speaker 1: bracket taking Yukon, you know, as they were this year
Speaker 1: and then the one seed that I was like, I
Speaker 1: didn't really love UNC more than Perdue, but it was
Speaker 1: it was like, how can you pick Perdue given what
Speaker 1: we've seen from them in the past. That and I
Speaker 1: really liked Tennessee, Creighton, Gonzag Like, there was a lot
Speaker 1: of teams in that region that I was a big
Speaker 1: fan of, so you know, I think a lot of
Speaker 1: people were probably similar to me and that you know,
Speaker 1: they picked against Purdue and then they had Yukon maybe
Speaker 1: in the final four, but then not winning it all
Speaker 1: because that's you got to pick against them to win
Speaker 1: it all. And now it's just it's just them versus
Speaker 1: a field in such a major way. You're right, it
Speaker 1: does really feel like a collision course between Yukon of
Speaker 1: Purdue and that.
Speaker 2: That should be a fun game.
Speaker 1: I mean pretty might be the team that to finally
Speaker 1: give you kind of game in the last two tournaments. Really,
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's really remarkable what they've done two
Speaker 1: marches in a row. Let's dive into how we're gonna
Speaker 1: be betting the Final four this upcoming weekend. We'll start
Speaker 1: with your guys, number one, Yukon going up against your team,
Speaker 1: not Yukon, number four, Bama really really fun offensively, like
Speaker 1: could could be a very exciting, fun back and forth game.
Speaker 1: Plus eleven and a half for Bama. The totals at
Speaker 1: one sixty one and a half. You know, Yukon very
Speaker 1: like contrasting styles in terms of the tempo that these
Speaker 1: you know, the number of possessions these two teams want
Speaker 1: to get out in a game, but both very efficient offensively.
Speaker 1: If you were interested in the money line, it's you know,
Speaker 1: Bama plus five twenty five. I think that's probably not
Speaker 1: the smartest play, although that line in the Final four
Speaker 1: is pretty ridiculous to be to be quite honest, how
Speaker 1: are you betting this one?
Speaker 3: So worm?
Speaker 4: This is probably my favorite bet all of the Final four.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna take Yukon's team total over eighty six and
Speaker 4: a half points because of Bama, there is so much
Speaker 4: that's kind of dictated off if they hit their three
Speaker 4: pointers or not, right spread and total, Like Yukon, Sure
Speaker 4: you look at it on the surface, they're beaten everybody
Speaker 4: by thirty points. They've led at some point in every
Speaker 4: tournament game by thirty in this tournament, which is just insane.
Speaker 4: But like, if Bama hits their threes, they can hang
Speaker 4: around and this game will go over the total. At
Speaker 4: the same time, if Bama doesn't hit their threes, you
Speaker 4: com will cover the spread easily and the under probably hits.
Speaker 4: So I don't want to bet the spread and I
Speaker 4: don't want to bet the total because so much of
Speaker 4: it is predicated off Bama knocking down their shots. And
Speaker 4: obviously in a Final four setting, you're shooting now in
Speaker 4: an NFL stadium, all these different site lines, like, it's
Speaker 4: just a very different kind of feel. The one thing
Speaker 4: that I think we can really hang our hat on
Speaker 4: in this game is the fact that Yukon's going to
Speaker 4: score points. They've been to the Final four they're scoring
Speaker 4: on everybody. Even though Bama has made it to the
Speaker 4: Final Four and their offense has been great, we're in
Speaker 4: three of their four games, they've still giving up eighty
Speaker 4: two points or more to Clemson, to UNC, to Charleston.
Speaker 4: Right think about their non conference schedule this year. I
Speaker 4: know we talked about this on the last pod when
Speaker 4: they played Creighton and Arizona and Purdue and all these
Speaker 4: good teams that got them ready for Carolina. All of
Speaker 4: those games were in the eighties too, So we don't
Speaker 4: know what Bama offense is gonna show up. I think
Speaker 4: if they made six or seven three pointers against Yukon's defense,
Speaker 4: it wouldn't shock anybody. At the same time, they could
Speaker 4: knock down sixteen or seventeen threes and it wouldn't shock anybody.
Speaker 4: But I think the one thing that we can kind
Speaker 4: of point to and say that we're gonna get in
Speaker 4: this game is Yukon's gonna score. So I like that
Speaker 4: team total over for the Huskies at eighty six and
Speaker 4: a half.
Speaker 1: Is there a player matchup that you're particularly intrigued by
Speaker 1: in this game? Is it Castle guarding Seers? Is it
Speaker 1: Newton Sears? Like scoring and dishing it out head to
Speaker 1: head is just what can Clingon do against this front line?
Speaker 1: Like what is there one guy on either side that
Speaker 1: you think maybe that's the X factor because I think
Speaker 1: we're we would both imagine you kind of with this
Speaker 1: game regardless, but that you think could have like a
Speaker 1: particularly great day or who if they do have a
Speaker 1: poor day, could swing things.
Speaker 4: Two things I'm interested in. I want to see how
Speaker 4: Bama handles Clinging inside.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 4: I want to see if they just play him one
Speaker 4: on one with Pringle, if they bring help off of
Speaker 4: maybe Castle's defender, because obviously you can't leave Cam Spencer,
Speaker 4: you can't leave Newton. So I want to see that
Speaker 4: chess match. I also want to see Dan Hurley did
Speaker 4: a fantastic job adjusting at halftime. Marcus Domass was killing
Speaker 4: him in the first half, right, he was using his
Speaker 4: size and he was backing down Newton and dr and
Speaker 4: some of the smaller guards on Yukon. So what does
Speaker 4: he do at halftime. He puts Caravan, he puts Castle,
Speaker 4: he puts more size on Domask and completely takes him
Speaker 4: out of rhythm. So some of these Bama guards, Mark
Speaker 4: Sears and Aaron Estrada especially I want to see the
Speaker 4: chess match. Who Hurley decides to put on some of
Speaker 4: these defensive assignments. My guess is that he's going to
Speaker 4: put more size on Sears. I think he's gonna have
Speaker 4: probably Newton follow around Ryland Griffin, who comes more so
Speaker 4: off screens. He's more of a one on one player,
Speaker 4: where Sears they kind of like to move him around.
Speaker 4: I'm guessing Castle is probably gonna be on Sears, and
Speaker 4: then you know who they put on, Grant Nelson. I'm
Speaker 4: thinking they're probably gonna go with Caravan, that would be
Speaker 4: my guess. But just the chess match, to see kind
Speaker 4: of who these guys come out with early as their
Speaker 4: defensive matchups and how they kind of mix a match
Speaker 4: throughout the game is something I'm going to be interested in.
Speaker 4: But so it makes you con so tough is that
Speaker 4: their wings can just guard so many different positions and
Speaker 4: if there's a if there's a matchup that Bama is
Speaker 4: exploiting early, Hurley's going to adjust and he's gonna put
Speaker 4: one of his other defenders on one of those other
Speaker 4: guards for Bama. So that's what I'm interested in, kind
Speaker 4: of what Bama's defensive game plan against Klingon Is and
Speaker 4: also who Hurley decides to match up with Bama's guards,
Speaker 4: who he decides to guard sears and and Estrada as well.
Speaker 1: Really just like they have an answer for everything. Like
Speaker 1: it's it's really remarkable you just watching Yukon play and
Speaker 1: when they when they need to make adjustments, which is
Speaker 1: not often because they keep letting these teams out, but
Speaker 1: when they do, it's just like, Okay, yeah, we have
Speaker 1: another answer, we have another option we can turn to.
Speaker 2: It's it's it's fine.
Speaker 1: It's just it just feels like like every other people
Speaker 1: have used this word to just feel so inevitable.
Speaker 2: It's like like.
Speaker 1: I want there to be suspense, right, Like I want
Speaker 1: this to be a really fun final four. I'm on
Speaker 1: the edge of my seat, but it like it just
Speaker 1: currently does not feel that way. If I force you
Speaker 1: to pick against the spread in the game, are you
Speaker 1: laying the points with the Yukon or are you taking
Speaker 1: the points with Bama.
Speaker 4: God, it's so tough. It's so tough not to bet
Speaker 4: Yukon until they don't.
Speaker 2: I don't I don't know how.
Speaker 1: I don't know how you don't lay the points with
Speaker 1: Yukon from what we've seen, Like again, Bama could surprise
Speaker 1: and hit a bunch of threes and stuff. But I,
Speaker 1: I just I don't know how you can do anything
Speaker 1: other than lay the point with Yukon. I don't even
Speaker 1: care what the number is, honestly, Like, what would the
Speaker 1: number have to be for you to you definitively take Bama?
Speaker 2: How high would the number have to go? It's pretty
Speaker 2: high for me.
Speaker 4: Probably have to be like seventeen or eighteen and a half,
Speaker 4: I would think, you know what I mean, Like you'd
Speaker 4: have to get some room there. The thing like worm
Speaker 4: does this game? Does it give you any kind of feel?
Speaker 4: This final four? To me kind of feels like are
Speaker 4: we headed to where we were in two thousand and
Speaker 4: one where Gonzaga is viewed as Yukon, Baylor is Purdue,
Speaker 4: where most of us kind of perceive Yukond of be
Speaker 4: the best team. We all thought Gonzaga was the best team,
Speaker 4: but Baylor was always there with them that year. Purdue's
Speaker 4: kind of always been there with them that year. Baylor
Speaker 4: had never done it before. I know Gonzaga hadn't either,
Speaker 4: but Baylor had never done it before. Obviously, Purdue under
Speaker 4: Painter has not as well. And then it's like, I
Speaker 4: wonder if this, if this Bama Yukon game, is going
Speaker 4: to be like Gonzaga and UCLA was. Gonzaga was favored
Speaker 4: by fourteen and a half in that game. Evan Abrams
Speaker 4: from the Action Network dropped a great stat He said,
Speaker 4: since two thousand, Yukon entering the Final four is the
Speaker 4: highest priced team right now to win it all at
Speaker 4: minus one ninety. Gonzaga in twenty twenty one was the
Speaker 4: only team that was the bigger favorite.
Speaker 3: So right now I'm wondering, like.
Speaker 4: Because of Bama's offense and they're shot making, if this
Speaker 4: is just gonna be one of those like ninety eight
Speaker 4: ninety six, like instant classics where they give Yukon a game.
Speaker 4: Because think about it too, so many times in sports,
Speaker 4: a lot of times it's the semi final game where
Speaker 4: these teams that look unbeatable go down.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 4: You can go all the way back to the miracle
Speaker 4: on ice. You can go back to last year in
Speaker 4: the women's tournament when Iowa beat South Carolina or in
Speaker 4: Mississippi State beat Yukon years ago, and it's like a
Speaker 4: lot of times it's that semi final game.
Speaker 2: Kentucky goes into Wisconsin in twenty fifteen, same.
Speaker 3: Thing, another great example.
Speaker 4: So again we're all trying to figure out, like, who
Speaker 4: is the kind of team to beat Yukon. Is it
Speaker 4: a team that's great defensively that wants to mucket up?
Speaker 4: Is it a team like Bama that can score one
Speaker 4: hundred points? Like? Who is the kind of team? I
Speaker 4: don't have an answer to it, but I'm just like,
Speaker 4: I don't know. This final four is like drawing parallels
Speaker 4: to me, kind of like that Gonzaga Baylor final four
Speaker 4: where it's like we've had two great teams all year,
Speaker 4: they're on a collision course for the final. And of
Speaker 4: course Baylor blew out Houston that was the easy semifinal game,
Speaker 4: and Gonzaga UCLA was that close game. I just think
Speaker 4: a lot of people are gonna look at the semifinal.
Speaker 4: They're gonna look at this NC State teams the team
Speaker 4: of destiny, and they're probably gonna like that dog, whereas
Speaker 4: nobody is gonna want to bend bet against Yukon. And
Speaker 4: I wonder if if Bama's the dog, it kind of
Speaker 4: just gives them a game.
Speaker 1: That is a really fascinating parallel from what three years ago.
Speaker 1: That is really intriguing to me, the Gonzaga Baylor parallel
Speaker 1: to Ukon Purdue. And it's a shame really, because Houston
Speaker 1: could have been in that conversation as one of the
Speaker 1: not just two best teams, with three best teams in
Speaker 1: the country. If you know Shed getting hurt obviously, you
Speaker 1: know you were all over Houston over Duke, and it
Speaker 1: looked like you were right, and then Shed gets hurt
Speaker 1: and everything changes, which which what can you do. I
Speaker 1: think it's a fascinating parallel. I'm I'm really it would
Speaker 1: be really intriguing to see Yukon Prdue. Let's talk quickly
Speaker 1: about the Purdue Anti State game. I would would certainly
Speaker 1: expect Prudue to win this. The line is lower than
Speaker 1: it is for Bama Yukon. I'm more confident. I feel
Speaker 1: like in Purdue beating NC State and maybe even beating
Speaker 1: them badly than I am Yukon Bama, just because there's
Speaker 1: that element of if Bama gets hot from three the lot,
Speaker 1: the spread is nine, the totals one forty six Anti State.
Speaker 1: If you think the Cinderell story continues plus three forty
Speaker 1: on the money line. Is there an angle to this
Speaker 1: game that you like from a betting perspective? And are
Speaker 1: you with me that? Like we're pretty confident, Like I like, listen,
Speaker 1: DJ Burns is super fun and maybe he can score
Speaker 1: on Zach Edy.
Speaker 2: He cannot stop Zach Edy.
Speaker 1: Like I just I feel like Eadie could drop fifty
Speaker 1: in this game if you do the way NC State
Speaker 1: is built. So I mean, what do you make of
Speaker 1: what do you make this one from a betting angle.
Speaker 4: One of my coworkers where I'm here at the Bechquel Network,
Speaker 4: Ken Barkley, who does his show You Better You Bet,
Speaker 4: has a great saying and his saying in the tournament
Speaker 4: is anyone can win four, but it's impossible to win six.
Speaker 4: And I think you're seeing that again with NC State.
Speaker 4: Like we've seen magical rides throughout the tournament where I
Speaker 4: think this is now the sixth or seventh, eleventh seed
Speaker 4: that we've had make it to the final four. None
Speaker 4: of them have won in the semifinal round, none of
Speaker 4: them made it to the title game. And like again,
Speaker 4: think about all the breaks that NC State got right,
Speaker 4: they didn't have to play Kentucky in the second round.
Speaker 4: Jamal shed got hurt. They didn't have to play Houston
Speaker 4: in the Elite eight, like sometimes you just get a
Speaker 4: great draw. Also, I mean the shooting that some of
Speaker 4: these teams had that they played against. Duke was five
Speaker 4: for twenty from three point range yesterday and mckayhn hit
Speaker 4: like two at the end, so really they were like
Speaker 4: three for eighteen that game. Marquette, as we all know,
Speaker 4: was four for thirty one from three, Texas Tech was
Speaker 4: seven for thirty one. The one team that shot the
Speaker 4: ball well against NC State was Oakland. They shot it
Speaker 4: pretty well from three, twelve for thirty five. That game
Speaker 4: went to overtime as a fourteen seed. Right, So Purdue,
Speaker 4: it felt like, had their bad offensive game against Tennessee.
Speaker 4: They were one for seven in the first half from three,
Speaker 4: where Tennessee was seven for eleven and Purdue was still
Speaker 4: up at half by two in that game. It's just like,
Speaker 4: Purdue is such a good three point shooting team. Is
Speaker 4: NC State really gonna continue being this lucky where teams
Speaker 4: are missing their shots. Clemson was kind of the best
Speaker 4: beneficiary of that too, right, they were playing all these
Speaker 4: great offenses and then finally they ran into a team
Speaker 4: in Bama who started hitting their shots and they go home.
Speaker 4: So again, a lot of people are gonna have this
Speaker 4: team a destiny feel for NC State, and I was
Speaker 4: right there with them all the way through till the
Speaker 4: final four. But this is where kind of those magical
Speaker 4: rides always seemed to end. So I just think unless
Speaker 4: Purdue has like a three for thirty kind of night
Speaker 4: from three point range, I do like them a lot.
Speaker 4: Minus the nine and a half, I think this is
Speaker 4: gonna be the semi final.
Speaker 3: Game where we see a blowout.
Speaker 1: If I had to guess, I agree with you. As
Speaker 1: you know, I like to bet. Just I put ten
Speaker 1: bucks on either spread total or money line, and every
Speaker 1: game in the tournament just fun, a little added enjoyment. Obviously,
Speaker 1: you know, obviously everybody bets the tournament, but I forced
Speaker 1: myself to pick one bet on every single game, even
Speaker 1: if I don't feel confident about it. This is not
Speaker 1: one of those where I don't feel confident. I am
Speaker 1: very happily laying the points with Purdue. I think they
Speaker 1: smash them and I have been betting. I'ven't been betting
Speaker 1: against them a lot this tournament, but like, I didn't
Speaker 1: pick them in any of my brackets. I've been always
Speaker 1: kind of in the back of my head, like rooting
Speaker 1: a little for like Kizaga or Tennessee and kind of
Speaker 1: hoping they win and maybe picking them like for fun,
Speaker 1: but not like officially putting money on it. This one,
Speaker 1: I just I just don't see away Purdue doesn't win
Speaker 1: this game by fifteen plus. And that's not a knock
Speaker 1: on nc State, but there's a reason Keats was likely
Speaker 1: to get fired. There's a reason they needed to win
Speaker 1: five games in five days to make the tournament. I
Speaker 1: think the luck runs out eventually. I think the clock
Speaker 1: will strike midnight, whatever cliche you want to use. And
Speaker 1: Purdue is just really, really good, and I think it
Speaker 1: was that first half against Tennessee. Like you alluded to
Speaker 1: the fact that everything went right for Tennessee and Prdue
Speaker 1: is still up to I don't think everything is going
Speaker 1: to go right for NCCT. I think Purdue is going
Speaker 1: to be up by a lot more at both halftime
Speaker 1: and the end of that game. So, uh, Perdue, let
Speaker 1: me ask you this before we touch on Purdue Yukon
Speaker 1: as a theoretical championship game, and then get out of here.
Speaker 1: If you had to pick one combination both that you
Speaker 1: think could happen and that you think you would want
Speaker 1: to see happen, and excluding your your fandom of Bama,
Speaker 1: because obviously you're going to want to see Bama if
Speaker 1: it's if it's some combo in the championship that's not
Speaker 1: U comp perdue, what are you hoping to see and
Speaker 1: what are you thinking is at least a possibility of seeing.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think Purdue Bama would be great.
Speaker 4: Those teams played earlier this year in Toronto and it
Speaker 4: was one of the best regular season games. That first
Speaker 4: half that they had when Bama was up forty nine
Speaker 4: to forty seven, was very similar to like that UNC
Speaker 4: Bama game that we saw in the Sweet sixteen. Both
Speaker 4: teams just trade threes, unbelievable offense on both sides, and
Speaker 4: Purdue ram with them in that game. So I think
Speaker 4: they'd run with them in the title game too, And
Speaker 4: I just think from a viewing standpoint, that'd be really fun.
Speaker 4: But like Bama, NC State I think would be cool too.
Speaker 4: Are actually Yukon NC State I think would be awesome
Speaker 4: where it's your true David Goliath. It's the ultimate team
Speaker 4: of destiny versus this just absolute juggernaut in Yukon and
Speaker 4: trying to pick, like does the Team of Destiny do
Speaker 4: they just like to really do it? Like do they
Speaker 4: really win this game? And it really would give us
Speaker 4: like again like Jimmy V flashbacks to nineteen eighty three,
Speaker 4: having to win the ACC Tournament, getting into the tournament,
Speaker 4: going all the way to the championship. They played Houston
Speaker 4: that year with like oh Clyde, Jeckxler, McKim Olajuan pretty good.
Speaker 4: And now you're facing this Yukon team. So I think
Speaker 4: Yukon NC State actually now and I think about it
Speaker 4: just from that, just like the best team against the
Speaker 4: Team of Destiny would be awesome, but from a pure
Speaker 4: basketball like getting to watch Alabama and Purdue play again
Speaker 4: I think would be super fun too.
Speaker 1: I mean genuinely, PJ if it's Yukon and NC State,
Speaker 1: Like what does that line need to be for you
Speaker 1: to take MC State? I mean, like quite honestly, it
Speaker 1: would need to be in the twenties for me to
Speaker 1: even consider it. Probably even then might not even take it,
Speaker 1: like ed you know, Team of Destiny can sometimes prove
Speaker 1: wrong all the metrics and all the the you know,
Speaker 1: I I test and everything we've watched this tournament, but
Speaker 1: like it would be fun narratively, I still I think
Speaker 1: you kind would win that game by twenty five plus.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I certainly wouldn't bet here. Let me
Speaker 4: put it this way, I'd either bet NC State money
Speaker 4: line or I'd lay it with Yukon, right Like, I
Speaker 4: don't think that's the game Yukon wins by seven. I
Speaker 4: think either you ride the team of destiny and you
Speaker 4: bet them to win, or to me, that would be
Speaker 4: like the Georgia TCU National Championship game in college football.
Speaker 4: It'd be fourteen and a half points. I would be
Speaker 4: my guest, just like that game was, and Georgia won
Speaker 4: that game sixty three to seven, and everybody thought TCU
Speaker 4: was the team of destiny. So I think it'd be similar,
Speaker 4: like Yukon would win by forty or NC State would
Speaker 4: win it out right, and there wouldn't be anything in between.
Speaker 1: So let's let's briefly preview a theoretical Yukon Perdue matchup,
Speaker 1: since that's what we're thinking is very likely. Is this
Speaker 1: game one through defense? Clinging can actually go toe to
Speaker 1: toe with Edie, although Di's I think plays a lot
Speaker 1: more minutes than Clingon does.
Speaker 2: Is it won by offense?
Speaker 1: You know Purdue gets hot from three and you know
Speaker 1: Yukon is really good but can't quite keep up. I mean,
Speaker 1: what how does this game play out? What do you
Speaker 1: think the line would be? Which side do you think
Speaker 1: you prefer to bet? What would be your kind of
Speaker 1: quick breakdown if that is in fact the championship game
Speaker 1: we get.
Speaker 4: So, I think you Come would probably be five and
Speaker 4: a half six and a half point favorites in the game,
Speaker 4: obviously depending on how the semi final game goes. Worm
Speaker 4: to me, I think the key to the game would
Speaker 4: be how Purdue matches up in the second half against Yukon. Right,
Speaker 4: we've seen people kind of be competitive with Yukon in
Speaker 4: the first half. We've seen them have some close games
Speaker 4: in the first twenty. It's these runs in the second
Speaker 4: half that are just it's very like Warriors, like when
Speaker 4: they were going through their dynasty, and we'd always talk
Speaker 4: about that Warriors third quarter. Like it's that Yukon run
Speaker 4: is always coming, and it's not like it comes in
Speaker 4: the final six five to six minutes of the game.
Speaker 4: It always comes in like the first two three, And
Speaker 4: that's there are sixteen points and you're like, this game
Speaker 4: was literally just close, like five minutes ago. So to me,
Speaker 4: that that would be the key because I think Perdue
Speaker 4: would keep it close for the first twenty. I think
Speaker 4: both teams obviously would kind of feel each other out,
Speaker 4: they'd ease themselves into it. I think Edie would be great.
Speaker 4: I think Yukon would be great. But it's it's that
Speaker 4: second half, man, Like, that's that's where Yukon gets these
Speaker 4: teams they just blow away.
Speaker 3: So that that.
Speaker 4: Would be the key could Purdue if they're able to
Speaker 4: keep it close in the first twenty, you survive that
Speaker 4: first five or six minute stretch in the second half
Speaker 4: where Yukon is so dominant. Because that's the thing again
Speaker 4: going back to that Gonzaga team in twenty twenty one,
Speaker 4: where nobody played Gonzaga close that year, Like we were
Speaker 4: just begging for Gonzaga to play a team close. Ucla
Speaker 4: finally did in that Final four game and the Baylor
Speaker 4: beat Gonzaga. It's like, can can somebody just play Yukon
Speaker 4: close like midway through the second half, and that that
Speaker 4: would be the challenge for Purdue.
Speaker 1: If if I take Bam off the table because obviously
Speaker 1: you're biased.
Speaker 2: Who do you want to win this championship?
Speaker 4: Ooh?
Speaker 3: Who do I want to win this championship?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 4: I think I would want Perdue because I bet them.
Speaker 4: That'd be nice. I mean NC State would be it
Speaker 4: would be an incredible story. But more often than not
Speaker 4: in March madness, like, I do want the best teams
Speaker 4: to win it. So I would probably say Purdue, I think,
Speaker 4: just because then the Yukon are the two best.
Speaker 3: I feel like.
Speaker 4: And Matt Painters had some really really good teams and
Speaker 4: they're more than due. You know in sports, like these
Speaker 4: teams that consistently get one seeds consistently get themselves to
Speaker 4: this spot. It'd be like if Gonzaga was in this spot,
Speaker 4: Like if the Zags were in the final four, I'd
Speaker 4: like to see Mark Few win one. So if if
Speaker 4: Bama can't do it, I think I'd be pulling for Purdue.
Speaker 3: To get the win.
Speaker 1: See for me, because I am a bitter, jealous fan,
Speaker 1: like I would root for Yukon. It's like it's like
Speaker 1: when Kansas is there, I don't want to let another coach.
Speaker 1: We already know Yukon's really good and Hurley is a
Speaker 1: good coach and is you know, on this like kind
Speaker 1: of elite tier track, especially if it's back to back titles,
Speaker 1: like like okay, what's one more to them? Right? Like
Speaker 1: I don't want to let another Big ten team Maryland.
Speaker 1: I don't another Big ten team win, But but I
Speaker 1: take your point on that if they do win, if
Speaker 1: Purdue wins, where does Zach Edie rank on the all
Speaker 1: time pantheon of college careers? Because you're talking about back
Speaker 1: to back you know, national player of the years like
Speaker 1: likely he was he unanimous last year and certainly will
Speaker 1: be this year. I mean yeah, like back to back
Speaker 1: unanimous National Players of the year, capping it off with
Speaker 1: the title the first title for your school in decades
Speaker 1: or you know, like first time.
Speaker 2: For the coach.
Speaker 1: Like ever, like like where does that career rank in
Speaker 1: terms of college athletes, because that's got to be up there.
Speaker 4: I mean, in the since the two thousands, he certainly
Speaker 4: would be in the top five. I'm sure I'm missing guys,
Speaker 4: but like the names that come to mind are Kemba, Carmelo,
Speaker 4: Anthony Davis, Like I mean, you put him in that
Speaker 4: tier with those guys.
Speaker 1: But like like Mellow and Davis were one year, guys
Speaker 1: like Eadie gets multiple National Players of the Year. It's right,
Speaker 1: it's really remarkable. We'll make our official picks and get
Speaker 1: out of here. I think we're gonna have similar official picks.
Speaker 1: But to to kind of highlight how expected that that
Speaker 1: outcome is of Yukon over you know, Yukon and Purdue
Speaker 1: the title game. To pick the exact result right now
Speaker 1: on DraftKings, it's a minus number for Yukon to beat
Speaker 1: Purdue and we don't even have them in the championship
Speaker 1: gave yet, and it's just you know, it's minus win
Speaker 1: twenty Yukon over Purdue plus three twenty Purdue to beat Yukon,
Speaker 1: and then everything else is a lot higher. If is
Speaker 1: it just Yukon minus one ninety five or Purdue plus
Speaker 1: two o five there's no real value to betting these
Speaker 1: plus sixteen hundreds on the other two, right.
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, no value. NC State and Bama will not
Speaker 4: win the championship. We alluded to it a little bit
Speaker 4: earlier in the podcast. You can win four games in
Speaker 4: the tournament. It's impossible to win six if you're NC
Speaker 4: State Bama. It just doesn't happen.
Speaker 3: I did it. I did a video on beck L.
Speaker 4: Before the tournament, I had found all these historical trends
Speaker 4: of teams that could win it, and we came down
Speaker 4: to two teams that could win the whole thing. Houston
Speaker 4: and Purdue were those two teams. The criteria that Yukon
Speaker 4: didn't fit was since nineteen ninety a team that has
Speaker 4: had that only has three teams from their conference has
Speaker 4: not won a national championship. So the Big East only
Speaker 4: had three teams in. We'll see if Yukon can buck
Speaker 4: that trend. But Purdue crossed everything off the list, every
Speaker 4: single one. Them and Houston were the two teams. So
Speaker 4: I'm gonna stick with that worm. I'm gonna be contrariing
Speaker 4: here and go with Purdue to win the whole thing.
Speaker 4: I think it is purduing Yukon, but uh, I mean, look,
Speaker 4: if you comm wins the whole thing, it wouldn't surprise me.
Speaker 4: I'm sticking with my theory though, Like I I'm getting
Speaker 4: Gonzaga Baylor vibes from this where.
Speaker 1: That parallel I can't shake. Now that zagger, that's a
Speaker 1: really good one.
Speaker 4: You know. It would be the same kind of spread
Speaker 4: where you come and be favored by like five and
Speaker 4: a half. And I mean Purdue matches up well with them,
Speaker 4: like Edie and Klingen head to head, Purdue's got tons
Speaker 4: of shooters on the outside, Like they want to play
Speaker 4: a slow game. Purdue can play that. They want to
Speaker 4: play to track meet, Purdue can play that. So I
Speaker 4: to me that, uh, that's that's what I'll go with.
Speaker 4: I I think I think it's Purdue's here worm I
Speaker 4: I think they're gonna win it.
Speaker 1: That is a really compelling argument. When the when the
Speaker 1: brackets first came out and we did a couple of
Speaker 1: shows that first week, I add both you and the
Speaker 1: team rankings, Jason Lisk, is this Yukon versus the field?
Speaker 1: Or is just Yukon's a favorite? And the answer was no,
Speaker 1: it's not Yukon versus the field. They're the favorite, but
Speaker 1: there's a lot of really good teams. It sure feels
Speaker 1: like it should have been Yukon versus the field the
Speaker 1: way they have looked, the way this thing is played out.
Speaker 1: I am really tempted by your your case for Purdue,
Speaker 1: and I think you might end up being right. But
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna say it's ukond of It'll be Ukon
Speaker 1: perdue in the championship game, and I'm gonna say I'll
Speaker 1: take Yukon because I've yet to see a reason why
Speaker 1: they won't blow everybody out. And I think there's a
Speaker 1: really really compelling case for Purdue, both narratively, both historically,
Speaker 1: both on the court.
Speaker 2: I mean, again, they have the best player in college basketball.
Speaker 2: I totally get the case for him.
Speaker 1: I just it's it's I need to see Yukon lose
Speaker 1: before I'm gonna pick them to lose.
Speaker 4: And that's totally that's totally fair. That's totally fair. I
Speaker 4: mean I would bet Purdue, you know, plus the points.
Speaker 4: I bet a money line. But I mean, look, Yukon
Speaker 4: does look better. I mean, they do look better. We'll
Speaker 4: just have they really been challenged yet though in the tournament,
Speaker 4: Like I know, Illinois is a really good team and
Speaker 4: they really made them look suspect. But you know before that,
Speaker 4: it's like Produce had to go through Gonzaga really good,
Speaker 4: had to go through Tennessee really good. So they played
Speaker 4: a tough non conference schedule. Both teams did, so we'll see.
Speaker 4: I just I don't know where is it like really
Speaker 4: gonna be this easy for Ukon? To repeat like, is
Speaker 4: somebody just not gonna give them a game?
Speaker 3: We'll see what happens.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but it sure looks that way right.
Speaker 1: I can't wait. If it is you come foror do
Speaker 1: that is going to be a fantastic game. I have
Speaker 1: no doubt.
Speaker 2: So I'm excited to hopefully see that. PJ. Thank you
Speaker 2: so much for coming on. What do you got going
Speaker 2: on this week at back L.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so we'll have our show send it in one
Speaker 4: to one thirty pm Eastern time. You can watch it
Speaker 4: on Twitch YouTube. You can watch it on x Instagram
Speaker 4: interactive show. People can chime in give their comments. We'll
Speaker 4: talk obviously Final four, also talk MLB NBA as well,
Speaker 4: and then I'll be on You Better You Bet tomorrow
Speaker 4: on Tuesday three to seven pm Eastern time as well.
Speaker 3: People want to check that out.
Speaker 1: He is PJ Glasser from bet QL. Thank you so
Speaker 1: much for joining us for the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 2: PJ.
Speaker 1: We'll see if I can talk you into We want
Speaker 1: to have a show next week to preview the championship game,
Speaker 1: but we might be able to talk you into a
Speaker 1: TikTok live or something on the Betting pros you know TikTok,
Speaker 1: so be sure to go follow us over there in
Speaker 1: case we get a little more tournament talk here before
Speaker 1: the end of everything.
Speaker 2: For PJ, I'm Ryan Warman.
Speaker 1: Thank you everybody for tuning in throughout March and we'll
Speaker 1: maybe see you again next week.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
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