WEBVTT - 2024 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview: Best Bets & Predictions (Ep. 452) 0:00:02.120 --> 0:00:05.400 Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. I am 0:00:05.480 --> 0:00:07.880 Ryan Wardley, joined as I have been the last couple 0:00:07.960 --> 0:00:11.040 of weeks by my good friend and betting expert in 0:00:11.080 --> 0:00:11.879 college basketball. 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:15.440 It's PJ Glasser of BETQL. PJ. We are here. 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.959 It is the final for this upcoming weekend and I 0:00:19.000 --> 0:00:22.239 will give you a moment here. Your Crimson Tide are 0:00:22.239 --> 0:00:24.280 in the Final four for the first time in school history. 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:25.239 How are you feeling? 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:26.799 Feeling great? Worm? 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:28.280 I would have felt a lot better if I had 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:30.319 bet on them to make it to the Final four, 0:00:30.360 --> 0:00:31.880 you know what I mean. I didn't think they'd get 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:35.000 past UNC. I didn't think they would beat Clemson either. 0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:37.000 I thought that was gonna be Arizona in that Elite game, 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:40.239 Elite eight game. But I can't believe it. This is 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:42.440 why the tournament is the best, you know. I feel 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:45.280 like they've had way better teams the last three or 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:47.159 four years. They were the number one overall team in 0:00:47.200 --> 0:00:50.720 the tournament last year. They were a two seed two 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:54.240 years before that, and those teams got out in Sweet sixteen. 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:57.400 And now here's this team who still on kemp Palm 0:00:57.520 --> 0:01:00.840 rank over one hundred on defense. But it's that offense 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:04.120 that's carrying them with those three pointers, and uh, it's 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:04.920 it's incredible. 0:01:04.959 --> 0:01:07.440 It's we have a I can't remember a time where 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:07.959 I really in. 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:10.280 The Final four where we've had two games where it 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:13.400 feels like we're just on a collision course with Yukon 0:01:13.480 --> 0:01:17.560 and Purdue, right, and you know that just the way 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:21.280 college basketball works, it just like one of these underdogs, 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:23.480 it feels like is gonna give one of these favorites 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:23.880 a game. 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:24.119 Right. 0:01:24.319 --> 0:01:26.919 We don't know which one, We don't know how close 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:27.800 it's gonna. 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:31.679 Be, but like I just you just feel like either 0:01:31.840 --> 0:01:35.560 Bama or NC State is gonna keep it close with 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:36.640 one of these favorites. 0:01:36.680 --> 0:01:38.800 So it's interesting. 0:01:38.440 --> 0:01:42.440 Because like I think Yukon is better than Perdue, but 0:01:42.600 --> 0:01:45.520 Bama is better than NC State. So it's like the 0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:50.920 better underdog is matched against the better favorite. And I 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:53.120 I would if I had to pick one, I'd probably 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:56.880 pick Bama just because you can make the case maybe 0:01:56.880 --> 0:01:59.400 they hit twenty threes because like that this is an 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:01.640 offense that is capable of, like you can just go 0:02:01.760 --> 0:02:04.200 toe to toe because they're not gonna stop you con 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:07.200 at all defensively. But maybe they just get really hot 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:09.480 from three, and that gives them a shot like it's 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:11.440 it's harder for me to make the case I think 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:14.880 with NC State. But before we dive into the final four, 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:16.320 I want to ask you if there are any other 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:21.280 takeaways from this past weekend Sweet sixteen Elite eight that 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:24.600 really stood out to you as a major surprise or 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:27.200 a development that you really didn't see coming. 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:30.720 I mean, I think the biggest takeaway for me, worm 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:32.840 is it doesn't matter how big a favorite you are, 0:02:32.919 --> 0:02:35.400 it doesn't matter how talented you are when you get 0:02:35.440 --> 0:02:38.040 into the Sweet sixteen Elite eight, if you don't hit shots, 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:40.520 you're gonna go home. Right, saw that with Marquette, saw 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:43.280 that with Duke, We saw that with Arizona. We saw 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:47.120 that with a bunch of these teams that are really 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:49.720 good offenses. But all it takes is one off night 0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:52.560 and you can you can go home. So I think 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:54.360 that was my takeaway, right, It felt like there were 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:56.560 a ton of games Illinois certainly you could throw in 0:02:56.600 --> 0:02:58.200 there too. I mean, when you come went on that 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:03.360 thirty off to run talk about like elite offenses like Duke, Marquette, 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:06.120 Aras like these teams are top ten in the country 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:10.480 in offense and had abysmal night shooting. So I think 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:12.799 I think that was really the big takeaway, Right, It's 0:03:12.800 --> 0:03:15.440 not like these teams really had bad looks. It's not 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:19.600 like these shots were contested. They were just missing open shots. 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:22.520 So we know basketball sometimes it's just, I mean, it's 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:24.960 as easy as who make shots and who misses shots. 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:28.040 And it felt like that that really decided a bunch 0:03:28.040 --> 0:03:30.440 of these games and these teams that we have in 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:32.799 the final four, you know, I mean a bunch of them. 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:35.640 Certainly Bama hit their shots in their last two games. 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:39.440 Perdue was great on offense against Gonzaga, was better in 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:43.280 the second half against Tennessee NC State, fantastic second half 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:46.440 against Duke, and then Yukon, I mean, just all levels 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:49.200 offense and defense was a fantastic. 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:51.240 I was not able to watch Saturday ad something come up, 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:54.200 but I was following the Yukon Illinois game as best 0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:56.720 I could, and I saw I literally looked at it 0:03:56.800 --> 0:03:59.280 and it was twenty eight twenty three. And then the 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.160 next time I because I wasn't able to check my 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:05.000 phone for a while, it was fifty three twenty three, 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:05.640 and I. 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:07.040 Was like, is there a typo? 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:10.120 Like how Is that even possible because I hadn't watched 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:12.040 the run and I went back and watched it later 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:14.680 and it was just like jaw on the floor, like 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:18.000 like they didn't do that against you know, Stetson. They 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:21.480 did that against Illinois in the Elite eight. It's really 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:23.840 one of the most remarkable things I think I've ever 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:27.159 seen in a college basketball game. To your point about 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:29.880 like the making shots and stuff, it seemed like that 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:32.839 was how Clemson was advancing, was they kept getting teams 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.120 not making their shots against them. And you know, I 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:38.760 kept picking against Clemson every single round and it kept 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:42.279 backfiring because Arizona would just go cold and keep on 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:45.960 firing and it wasn't working before we get into the 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:48.560 final four. Are there any lessons you feel like you 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:52.040 learned from who these final four teams are in terms 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:54.719 of how you would bet the tournament next year, in 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:57.000 terms of how you would fill out a bracket next year, 0:04:57.160 --> 0:04:58.960 just in terms of as a fan, like this is 0:04:58.960 --> 0:05:00.880 something I would remember going for. Are there any lessons 0:05:00.960 --> 0:05:03.160 learned from this group of final four teams and how 0:05:03.200 --> 0:05:04.600 the tournament has played out to date? 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:07.800 It's a good question, I think something that I try 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:09.960 and take with me year to year when I'm picking 0:05:09.960 --> 0:05:12.400 my final four is that every year worm when we 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:15.839 get to this point, it's never before teams that everybody 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:18.279 think it's gonna be right. I mean, you could throw 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:21.159 out like a couple of different scenarios of who people liked, 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:24.600 but for a majority, it was either Yukon Auburn, it 0:05:24.640 --> 0:05:29.400 was Arizona, UNC, it was Houston, Duke, Marquette, Kentucky, or 0:05:29.480 --> 0:05:32.839 it was Purdue, Gonzaga, Tennessee. Create right, it was like 0:05:32.880 --> 0:05:36.520 a majority of like those kind of four teams. Very 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:40.839 few had NC State, not a lot had Bama. So 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:43.560 that's the way it goes. I know, when people are 0:05:43.600 --> 0:05:46.320 filling out a bracket, and certainly people like us who 0:05:46.360 --> 0:05:49.479 watch the regular season in college basketball, you're going through 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:52.279 these games and you're like, I know, I'm not supposed 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:54.120 to pick the games that everybody else, but it's like 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:56.360 who's gonna beat Arizona. 0:05:55.880 --> 0:05:57.080 On the bottom half of this region? 0:05:57.120 --> 0:06:01.240 Like who's gonna like upset you know, like these kinds 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:04.799 of things. So I mean that's the beauty of the tournament. 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:06.599 That's the beauty of these one and done games. So 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.960 it's different year after year, the kind of teams that 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:12.920 we get that go into the final four. I will say, 0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:15.479 with the new era that we're in with college basketball, 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.400 it is interesting that the last two years we have 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:21.240 had teams like Miami and Bama kind of make it 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:24.880 to the tournament, right, So I would say maybe those 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:27.040 are something to look out for. I think everybody thought 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:29.080 that team that was great on offense this year and 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.320 wasn't good on defense that to make the final four 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:35.080 was going to be Kentucky. So historically in the tournament, 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:37.120 I mean, those kind of teams like if you're that 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:40.120 bad on defense like Miami and Bama were, usually don't 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:44.200 get this far. So that's happening back to back years. Obviously, 0:06:44.240 --> 0:06:47.599 this era with the transfer portal and with offenses and 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.159 with all the three pointers that we get. If these 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:53.440 teams like Miami last year surviving the Drake Game, Bama 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:56.720 this year surviving the Grand Canyon Game, those teams, when 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:59.040 they have those games where they're not good on offense, 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:02.880 if they're able to survive that, you see the end result. 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:05.920 I mean, they're offenses, they're good enough to compete with anybody, 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:07.800 and if they're hitting their shots, it can take them 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:10.080 all the way to the final four. So probably my 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:13.000 two biggest takeaways, right, never pick the same four teams 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:15.520 that everybody picked, because it never happens that way. 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:17.520 And then you know, I'm. 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:19.480 Not necessarily saying next year to take one of these 0:07:19.480 --> 0:07:22.600 Bama Miami type teams, but certainly something to keep an 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:24.000 eye on. And I think we have to take those 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:26.480 kind of teams a little more seriously moving forward, because 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:29.080 I mean, they've shown us that this is kind of 0:07:29.080 --> 0:07:31.120 the new era of hoops. Like if you can score, 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:34.000 you can beat anybody. You might not win the championship, 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:35.520 but you can make it to the final four. 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:39.920 And realistically, it's almost like three teams made their first 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:42.160 final fours. I know Purdue and nci State made them 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:43.960 in the early eighties, but it was an entirely different 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:47.000 sport back then, really, you know, considering how long it's 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:49.360 been for them, tournament expanded since then, right, I mean, 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:52.320 it was just a different game back when Purdue was 0:07:52.600 --> 0:07:55.000 in nineteen eighty and NC State nineteen eighty three, I think, 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:57.840 And obviously everybody you know has seen clips of that 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:00.520 NC State eighty three run, so we're familiar that they 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:03.000 have been there before, but really a different game back then. 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:05.600 And of course Bama never having made it before and 0:08:05.640 --> 0:08:07.400 then going up against the team that just won it 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:11.120 all last year and looks like another behemoth. You know, 0:08:11.160 --> 0:08:13.280 it is it is funny like in terms of filling 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:15.760 out the bracket, I you know, it's like I never 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:17.520 gonna be the guy who takes the number one overall 0:08:17.520 --> 0:08:19.720 seed because ever too many people are gonna take it 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:20.960 and it just feels like you're not gonna win your 0:08:21.000 --> 0:08:23.840 bracket taking Yukon, you know, as they were this year 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:26.760 and then the one seed that I was like, I 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:29.760 didn't really love UNC more than Perdue, but it was 0:08:29.840 --> 0:08:31.640 it was like, how can you pick Perdue given what 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:34.160 we've seen from them in the past. That and I 0:08:34.280 --> 0:08:36.760 really liked Tennessee, Creighton, Gonzag Like, there was a lot 0:08:36.760 --> 0:08:37.920 of teams in that region that I was a big 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:40.360 fan of, so you know, I think a lot of 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:42.320 people were probably similar to me and that you know, 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:45.120 they picked against Purdue and then they had Yukon maybe 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:46.960 in the final four, but then not winning it all 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:48.679 because that's you got to pick against them to win 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:51.040 it all. And now it's just it's just them versus 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:53.640 a field in such a major way. You're right, it 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:57.360 does really feel like a collision course between Yukon of 0:08:57.400 --> 0:08:59.280 Purdue and that. 0:08:58.600 --> 0:08:59.760 That should be a fun game. 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:01.800 I mean pretty might be the team that to finally 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:04.600 give you kind of game in the last two tournaments. Really, 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:07.240 I mean, it's it's really remarkable what they've done two 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:10.280 marches in a row. Let's dive into how we're gonna 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:13.280 be betting the Final four this upcoming weekend. We'll start 0:09:13.320 --> 0:09:16.960 with your guys, number one, Yukon going up against your team, 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:22.400 not Yukon, number four, Bama really really fun offensively, like 0:09:22.480 --> 0:09:25.800 could could be a very exciting, fun back and forth game. 0:09:26.280 --> 0:09:29.400 Plus eleven and a half for Bama. The totals at 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:32.760 one sixty one and a half. You know, Yukon very 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:35.120 like contrasting styles in terms of the tempo that these 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:37.320 you know, the number of possessions these two teams want 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:41.200 to get out in a game, but both very efficient offensively. 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:43.800 If you were interested in the money line, it's you know, 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:46.720 Bama plus five twenty five. I think that's probably not 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:50.040 the smartest play, although that line in the Final four 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:52.720 is pretty ridiculous to be to be quite honest, how 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:53.760 are you betting this one? 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:54.920 So worm? 0:09:55.120 --> 0:09:57.680 This is probably my favorite bet all of the Final four. 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:00.920 I'm gonna take Yukon's team total over eighty six and 0:10:00.960 --> 0:10:04.840 a half points because of Bama, there is so much 0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:07.440 that's kind of dictated off if they hit their three 0:10:07.440 --> 0:10:11.680 pointers or not, right spread and total, Like Yukon, Sure 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:14.400 you look at it on the surface, they're beaten everybody 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:17.000 by thirty points. They've led at some point in every 0:10:17.040 --> 0:10:20.520 tournament game by thirty in this tournament, which is just insane. 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:23.640 But like, if Bama hits their threes, they can hang 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:26.360 around and this game will go over the total. At 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:29.000 the same time, if Bama doesn't hit their threes, you 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.679 com will cover the spread easily and the under probably hits. 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:34.760 So I don't want to bet the spread and I 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:36.760 don't want to bet the total because so much of 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:40.320 it is predicated off Bama knocking down their shots. And 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:43.280 obviously in a Final four setting, you're shooting now in 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:46.560 an NFL stadium, all these different site lines, like, it's 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:49.680 just a very different kind of feel. The one thing 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:52.080 that I think we can really hang our hat on 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:54.000 in this game is the fact that Yukon's going to 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:56.880 score points. They've been to the Final four they're scoring 0:10:56.920 --> 0:10:59.640 on everybody. Even though Bama has made it to the 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:02.000 Final Four and their offense has been great, we're in 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:04.079 three of their four games, they've still giving up eighty 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:07.839 two points or more to Clemson, to UNC, to Charleston. 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:10.560 Right think about their non conference schedule this year. I 0:11:10.559 --> 0:11:12.520 know we talked about this on the last pod when 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:16.040 they played Creighton and Arizona and Purdue and all these 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:19.480 good teams that got them ready for Carolina. All of 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:22.560 those games were in the eighties too, So we don't 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:24.679 know what Bama offense is gonna show up. I think 0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:27.800 if they made six or seven three pointers against Yukon's defense, 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:30.480 it wouldn't shock anybody. At the same time, they could 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:33.880 knock down sixteen or seventeen threes and it wouldn't shock anybody. 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:35.840 But I think the one thing that we can kind 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:38.520 of point to and say that we're gonna get in 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:41.000 this game is Yukon's gonna score. So I like that 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:43.040 team total over for the Huskies at eighty six and 0:11:43.080 --> 0:11:43.400 a half. 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:47.439 Is there a player matchup that you're particularly intrigued by 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:50.000 in this game? Is it Castle guarding Seers? Is it 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:52.439 Newton Sears? Like scoring and dishing it out head to 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:55.880 head is just what can Clingon do against this front line? 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:58.560 Like what is there one guy on either side that 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:01.000 you think maybe that's the X factor because I think 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:03.120 we're we would both imagine you kind of with this 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:06.360 game regardless, but that you think could have like a 0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:09.560 particularly great day or who if they do have a 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:10.920 poor day, could swing things. 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.960 Two things I'm interested in. I want to see how 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:17.040 Bama handles Clinging inside. 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:17.360 Right. 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:18.800 I want to see if they just play him one 0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:21.440 on one with Pringle, if they bring help off of 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:24.480 maybe Castle's defender, because obviously you can't leave Cam Spencer, 0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:26.360 you can't leave Newton. So I want to see that 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:29.679 chess match. I also want to see Dan Hurley did 0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:33.440 a fantastic job adjusting at halftime. Marcus Domass was killing 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:35.320 him in the first half, right, he was using his 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:38.080 size and he was backing down Newton and dr and 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:40.439 some of the smaller guards on Yukon. So what does 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:43.320 he do at halftime. He puts Caravan, he puts Castle, 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:46.720 he puts more size on Domask and completely takes him 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:49.400 out of rhythm. So some of these Bama guards, Mark 0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:53.200 Sears and Aaron Estrada especially I want to see the 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.840 chess match. Who Hurley decides to put on some of 0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:59.959 these defensive assignments. My guess is that he's going to 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.079 put more size on Sears. I think he's gonna have 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:07.240 probably Newton follow around Ryland Griffin, who comes more so 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:09.959 off screens. He's more of a one on one player, 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:12.160 where Sears they kind of like to move him around. 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:15.400 I'm guessing Castle is probably gonna be on Sears, and 0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:18.199 then you know who they put on, Grant Nelson. I'm 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:20.600 thinking they're probably gonna go with Caravan, that would be 0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:23.640 my guess. But just the chess match, to see kind 0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:26.400 of who these guys come out with early as their 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:28.880 defensive matchups and how they kind of mix a match 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:31.880 throughout the game is something I'm going to be interested in. 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:34.680 But so it makes you con so tough is that 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:39.000 their wings can just guard so many different positions and 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:41.960 if there's a if there's a matchup that Bama is 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.560 exploiting early, Hurley's going to adjust and he's gonna put 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:46.640 one of his other defenders on one of those other 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:49.480 guards for Bama. So that's what I'm interested in, kind 0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:52.400 of what Bama's defensive game plan against Klingon Is and 0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:56.160 also who Hurley decides to match up with Bama's guards, 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:59.240 who he decides to guard sears and and Estrada as well. 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.400 Really just like they have an answer for everything. Like 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:06.400 it's it's really remarkable you just watching Yukon play and 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:08.800 when they when they need to make adjustments, which is 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:10.439 not often because they keep letting these teams out, but 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:12.520 when they do, it's just like, Okay, yeah, we have 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:14.760 another answer, we have another option we can turn to. 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:15.880 It's it's it's fine. 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:19.520 It's just it just feels like like every other people 0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:21.239 have used this word to just feel so inevitable. 0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:22.480 It's like like. 0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:26.600 I want there to be suspense, right, Like I want 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:28.720 this to be a really fun final four. I'm on 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:30.480 the edge of my seat, but it like it just 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:33.680 currently does not feel that way. If I force you 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:36.040 to pick against the spread in the game, are you 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.040 laying the points with the Yukon or are you taking 0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:38.800 the points with Bama. 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.520 God, it's so tough. It's so tough not to bet 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:44.040 Yukon until they don't. 0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:45.040 I don't I don't know how. 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:46.840 I don't know how you don't lay the points with 0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:49.880 Yukon from what we've seen, Like again, Bama could surprise 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:52.920 and hit a bunch of threes and stuff. But I, 0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:55.240 I just I don't know how you can do anything 0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:56.760 other than lay the point with Yukon. I don't even 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:58.440 care what the number is, honestly, Like, what would the 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:01.680 number have to be for you to you definitively take Bama? 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:03.640 How high would the number have to go? It's pretty 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:04.280 high for me. 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:07.800 Probably have to be like seventeen or eighteen and a half, 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:09.520 I would think, you know what I mean, Like you'd 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:12.280 have to get some room there. The thing like worm 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:15.160 does this game? Does it give you any kind of feel? 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:18.640 This final four? To me kind of feels like are 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:20.840 we headed to where we were in two thousand and 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:25.560 one where Gonzaga is viewed as Yukon, Baylor is Purdue, 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:29.160 where most of us kind of perceive Yukond of be 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:32.240 the best team. We all thought Gonzaga was the best team, 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:35.640 but Baylor was always there with them that year. Purdue's 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:38.280 kind of always been there with them that year. Baylor 0:15:38.320 --> 0:15:40.440 had never done it before. I know Gonzaga hadn't either, 0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:43.200 but Baylor had never done it before. Obviously, Purdue under 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:46.240 Painter has not as well. And then it's like, I 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:49.880 wonder if this, if this Bama Yukon game, is going 0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:54.280 to be like Gonzaga and UCLA was. Gonzaga was favored 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:57.440 by fourteen and a half in that game. Evan Abrams 0:15:57.440 --> 0:15:59.680 from the Action Network dropped a great stat He said, 0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:02.880 since two thousand, Yukon entering the Final four is the 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:05.320 highest priced team right now to win it all at 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:08.800 minus one ninety. Gonzaga in twenty twenty one was the 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:10.720 only team that was the bigger favorite. 0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:13.440 So right now I'm wondering, like. 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:17.360 Because of Bama's offense and they're shot making, if this 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:19.440 is just gonna be one of those like ninety eight 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:23.520 ninety six, like instant classics where they give Yukon a game. 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:26.800 Because think about it too, so many times in sports, 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:30.720 a lot of times it's the semi final game where 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.200 these teams that look unbeatable go down. 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:33.440 Right. 0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:35.320 You can go all the way back to the miracle 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:38.320 on ice. You can go back to last year in 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:41.120 the women's tournament when Iowa beat South Carolina or in 0:16:41.160 --> 0:16:44.480 Mississippi State beat Yukon years ago, and it's like a 0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:47.600 lot of times it's that semi final game. 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:50.640 Kentucky goes into Wisconsin in twenty fifteen, same. 0:16:50.400 --> 0:16:52.000 Thing, another great example. 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:56.160 So again we're all trying to figure out, like, who 0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:58.160 is the kind of team to beat Yukon. Is it 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:00.720 a team that's great defensively that wants to mucket up? 0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:03.080 Is it a team like Bama that can score one 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.800 hundred points? Like? Who is the kind of team? I 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:09.760 don't have an answer to it, but I'm just like, 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:12.840 I don't know. This final four is like drawing parallels 0:17:12.880 --> 0:17:15.680 to me, kind of like that Gonzaga Baylor final four 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:18.040 where it's like we've had two great teams all year, 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:21.280 they're on a collision course for the final. And of 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:25.760 course Baylor blew out Houston that was the easy semifinal game, 0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:28.959 and Gonzaga UCLA was that close game. I just think 0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:31.119 a lot of people are gonna look at the semifinal. 0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:33.800 They're gonna look at this NC State teams the team 0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:37.200 of destiny, and they're probably gonna like that dog, whereas 0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:40.679 nobody is gonna want to bend bet against Yukon. And 0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:42.720 I wonder if if Bama's the dog, it kind of 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:43.840 just gives them a game. 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:48.720 That is a really fascinating parallel from what three years ago. 0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:54.440 That is really intriguing to me, the Gonzaga Baylor parallel 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:57.880 to Ukon Purdue. And it's a shame really, because Houston 0:17:57.880 --> 0:17:59.840 could have been in that conversation as one of the 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:01.760 not just two best teams, with three best teams in 0:18:01.800 --> 0:18:04.639 the country. If you know Shed getting hurt obviously, you 0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:06.879 know you were all over Houston over Duke, and it 0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:08.800 looked like you were right, and then Shed gets hurt 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:11.440