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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so smooth,

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Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 2: Six sing just glorious extrocution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of mind?

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Speaker 1: But buddy, and that's why you.

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Speaker 3: See nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 4: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left to of the white eyed.

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Speaker 2: Drill pibus, how old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello, everybody, Welcome back to Wonder Goal, of the soccer

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Speaker 3: betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael

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Speaker 3: heap Up, and in just a moment I'll be joined

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Speaker 3: by my co hosts, friends colleagues. Anthony Dbundo out of Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 3: BJ Cunningham coming to you from Iowa, America's bread basket.

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Speaker 3: But before I bring those two gentlemen in, just a reminder,

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Speaker 3: Wonder Goal is presented by BET three six five, the

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Speaker 3: world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign Up with promo code Action

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Speaker 3: to get BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer

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Speaker 3: in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar in any game,

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Speaker 3: get two hundred dollars free. All right, let's talk Premier League.

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Speaker 3: Ten matches on the docket. Then we'll jaunt around Europe,

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Speaker 3: give out our favorite underdogs, and then our best bets

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Speaker 3: in the Premier League this weekend. One place to start

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Speaker 3: anfield there. That'll be where Manchester City will be traveling

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Speaker 3: to take on Liverpool and what should be a pretty

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Speaker 3: big match in the title race. But of course Liverpool

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Speaker 3: are sitting in tenth place right now. Two wins for draws,

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Speaker 3: two losses for Jurgen clops reds. They're plus three twenty

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Speaker 3: at bet three six five. Home underdogs Cities odds on

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Speaker 3: minus one thirty four. The draw here is plus three twenty. Anthony,

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Speaker 3: you're a Liverpool fan. It's really hard for you to

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Speaker 3: bet against this team, so I knew when I saw

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Speaker 3: the rundown where your money was going right away.

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Speaker 2: I don't have any money on this game. In fact,

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Speaker 2: I think I'm going to be staying away due to

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Speaker 2: all the Liverpool injuries. I think Liverpool is a bit

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Speaker 2: undervalued here. I think we don't know where the bottom is.

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Speaker 2: I think this Liverpool team is in the middle of

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Speaker 2: a pretty solid regression from the lofty heights of the

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Speaker 2: last couple of years.

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Speaker 4: And that's pretty clear.

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Speaker 2: But even in my form weighted numbers, I can't get

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Speaker 2: Liverpool to be this big of an underdog at home.

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Speaker 2: Most of Liverpool's problems have come on the road in

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Speaker 2: the League and in Europe especially. You know, they are

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Speaker 2: allowing over two expected goals on the road. They've been

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Speaker 2: much better defensively at home. But if City's going to

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Speaker 2: press and try to possess the ball and try to

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Speaker 2: pen Liverpool in their own half, they're gonna need passing

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Speaker 2: to get out of that. And tren Alexander Arnold is

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Speaker 2: their best passer and ball progressor and he's now out

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Speaker 2: for this match.

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Speaker 4: Joel Mattitt looks.

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Speaker 2: Like he's going to be out as well, so it's

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Speaker 2: another center back down.

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Speaker 4: Louis Diaz out into the World Cup.

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Speaker 2: Now, if City has a weakness in this match, it's

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Speaker 2: that Walker is out and that they can be exploited

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Speaker 2: in transition, especially up that wing. Well, Diaz was the

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Speaker 2: guy that I was hoping was going to be able

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Speaker 2: to do that, and now he's not really going to

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Speaker 2: be able to So I'm ultimately staying away here. It's

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Speaker 2: not just Walker john Stone's is out. Looks like Calvin

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Speaker 2: Phillips is out, so a lot of depth missing for City.

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Speaker 2: I think they're a little vulnerable.

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Speaker 4: Earling Holland did.

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Speaker 2: Not play in the Copenhagen match. At first I thought

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Speaker 2: it was just basic rotation, but Guardiola was saying quite

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Speaker 2: a bit that he just was struggling to recover from

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Speaker 2: the weekend match. He was really feeling it physically. You

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Speaker 2: wonder if he'll be at his full effectiveness. Expect him

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Speaker 2: to start, of course, but will he be fully effective.

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Speaker 2: It's a big difference.

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Speaker 4: City's attack also running pretty hot. So overall I.

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Speaker 2: Lean toward Liverpool here, but I think I'm staying away.

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Speaker 2: Just too much uncertainty with these injuries.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it is jarring just to look at

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Speaker 3: the The Liverpool numbers said they're two four and two

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Speaker 3: windraw loss with an eight a plus eight goal differential.

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Speaker 3: But nine of those goals came against Born With in

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Speaker 3: that nine to zero win. So if that score didn't

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Speaker 3: didn't get that out of hand, you know that that

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Speaker 3: goal differential looks even less intimidating. Of course, they are

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Speaker 3: coming off a seven to win win against Rangers in

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Speaker 3: the Champions League, but we also saw them. You thought

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Speaker 3: maybe Liverpool was routing into form with the performance against

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Speaker 3: I actually they follow it up with the kind of

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Speaker 3: lackluster games against Brighton and then the loss against Arsenal,

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Speaker 3: which BJ Anthony and I spent I would say most

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Speaker 3: of last podcasts imploring you to take the easiest bet

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Speaker 3: on the board, which is Arsenal against Liverpool. You're an

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Speaker 3: Arsenal fan and you still didn't get there. So while

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Speaker 3: Anthony and I were, you know, laughing our way to

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Speaker 3: the window, you were sitting there with no money in

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Speaker 3: your pocket and you're.

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Speaker 1: Gonna win my heart and you're going to try to

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Speaker 1: go back to Liverpool here. Maybe it's it has to

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Speaker 1: do with the market. I mean, you'd have told me

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Speaker 1: at the beginning of the season that this match City

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Speaker 1: was going to be minus one twenty five on the

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Speaker 1: road at Liverpool. I would have been stunned. Now, you know,

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Speaker 1: obviously the injuries do have some effect. I think Jota

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Speaker 1: can give City some problems on the left wing, you know,

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Speaker 1: they you could say that Liverpool maybe and obviously they

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Speaker 1: pounded Rangers today. Maybe Sala got some confidence back. Maybe

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Speaker 1: he can start to be more effective like he was

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Speaker 1: last season. Who knows, But for me, I mean Liverpool,

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Speaker 1: it's really hard to play Liverpool here. I mean they've

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Speaker 1: there are four biggest matches I would say in the season.

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Speaker 1: They got run off the pitch against Napoli. United beat

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Speaker 1: them on actually by creating two big scoring chances. Brighton

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Speaker 1: gave them a ton of problems, and then Arsenal just

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Speaker 1: dominated them, like you just said. And in those four

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Speaker 1: matches they allowed ten point two expected goals. And now

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Speaker 1: they're supposed to stop Earling Holland without Mattie. It's it's very,

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Speaker 1: very hard for me to muster up the courage to

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Speaker 1: play Liverpool. And like I just mentioned, those four matches, offensively,

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Speaker 1: they only created four poole and seven expected goals, so

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Speaker 1: the offense has struggled. They are at home though, you

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Speaker 1: know in these matches last season, the one at Anfield

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Speaker 1: was pretty even unexpected goals. You know, both matches and

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Speaker 1: the Premier League obviously ended in a draw. City kind

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Speaker 1: of dominated the box score in both of them, but

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Speaker 1: you know, from a market perspective, City was only plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five on the road at Liverpool. So now

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Speaker 1: we're fifty points higher. Obviously there's some injuries, but like

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Speaker 1: Anthony already mentioned, there are some entries in the back

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Speaker 1: line for City that could could give Liverpool some space

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Speaker 1: in behind and allow them to cost some problems. So

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Speaker 1: as I sit here, I it's very it's kind of

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Speaker 1: hard for me not to take Liverpool plus half a goal.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'd had plus one o five. But I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna wait, I'm gonna hope that people just say, oh,

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Speaker 1: Liverpool's all got all these guys out. City's just been

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Speaker 1: running rampant through the Premier League. They should pace them

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Speaker 1: once again. If I can get Liverpool plus half a

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Speaker 1: goal at a decent number, I think just I think

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Speaker 1: I have to play it. It's it's it's too hard

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Speaker 1: for me not to because this Liverpool team, yes, they've

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Speaker 1: had problems, but they they still are really good. Like

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Speaker 1: they're not like, you know, a mid table club, like

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Speaker 1: they're still probably the third best team in the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, so I ultimately passing, but if I can

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Speaker 1: get a better number, I think I have to play Liverpool.

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Speaker 2: And where would Liverpool be without the elite finishing of

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Speaker 2: Bobby For me? No, no, right, you know he used to

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Speaker 2: made fun of him.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's what we all said. That's what we

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Speaker 3: all say coming into the season that for me, you know,

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Speaker 3: it's going to be the key to this a Liverpool attack.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, I mean I'm after saying, oh that kind

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Speaker 3: of ragging on you guys it it would be Liverpool

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Speaker 3: or nothing for me. At this number.

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Speaker 1: It's hard, Like it's just hard to sit there and

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Speaker 1: look at this and be like, how do I not

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Speaker 1: take Liverpool? Like there's no way in earth anybody can

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Speaker 1: lay mine as one twenty five a city on the

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Speaker 1: road in this situation. I mean, if you can, you know,

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Speaker 1: God bless you and you'll probably win. But yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: just so hard not to play Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's go to that's the Sunday eleven thirty

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Speaker 3: am kickoff. So let's move to Friday back a couple

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Speaker 3: of days. Friday Night Lights are back, three pm kickoff.

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Speaker 3: Brentford Brighton Brentford at home there plus two hundred Brighton

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Speaker 3: on the road plus one thirty seven. The draw here

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Speaker 3: is plus two forty. Brentford is a team that Thomas

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Speaker 3: Frank seems to preach a quality over quantity philosophy. When

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Speaker 3: it comes to attack. Fifteenth in shots per ninety, but

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Speaker 3: they're fifth in big scoring chances. But this Brighton defense

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Speaker 3: is really good at protecting the kind of home base

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Speaker 3: there forth in preventing big scoring chances. It would be

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Speaker 3: Brentford for me. We talk about Brighton, how they struggled

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Speaker 3: kind of to impose their will on games as a favorite,

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Speaker 3: especially on the road, it would be Brentford. But the

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Speaker 3: numbers just not good enough for me. So I'll be passing, Anthony,

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Speaker 3: though you have another play you like.

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Speaker 2: The most interesting thing that's this happened on kind of

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Speaker 2: a league wide trend this year has been the overtrend

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Speaker 2: that I tweeted about this on Monday, just before the

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Speaker 2: Forest and Villa match. Overs this year in the prem

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Speaker 2: fifty two and thirty four sixty putercent win rate covering

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Speaker 2: by an average goal margin of point five to nine

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Speaker 2: eight percent return on investment.

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Speaker 4: So I look deeper into it.

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Speaker 2: Almost every team the league is overperforming their x G.

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Speaker 2: We've had a lot of extra goals in this league

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Speaker 2: this year, and a lot of it has come down

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Speaker 2: to bad goalkeeping and no not just Danny Ward. But

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Speaker 2: it's really interesting, and Brentford is one of those teams.

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Speaker 2: This season, you look at their numbers, they've conceded seventeen

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Speaker 2: goals off of about eleven expected. They've also run well

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Speaker 2: and attack. They return home where I expect the defense

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Speaker 2: to be better. I expect them to play better as

200
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Speaker 2: a whole. I actually show a tiny bit of value

201
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Speaker 2: on the bes at home, but I also liked the

202
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Speaker 2: under more. These two teams played twice last year. First

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Speaker 2: game completely dead, there was a stopage time winner. It

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Speaker 2: was a one nail game, but there was only point

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Speaker 2: eight xtually created. Second meeting one point seven. These two

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Speaker 2: games were very low event neither had more than two goals.

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Speaker 2: The thing is that when you get the two moneyball

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Speaker 2: clubs going against each other, they're good at nullifying what

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Speaker 2: the other ones to do.

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Speaker 3: Brentford's X one on set pieces.

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Speaker 2: Brighton doesn't give you set pieces and doesn't give good

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Speaker 2: chances off of them, and I think it's a major

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Speaker 2: reason why Brentford has really struggled to do anything in this.

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Speaker 4: Fixture the last two years.

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Speaker 2: The question that the thing that scares me a little

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Speaker 2: bit is Deservey. He's not really a defensive possession type.

217
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Speaker 2: He's much more aggressive with the ball, try to bait traps, pressing,

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Speaker 2: get him behind, create big chances off of that. They're

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Speaker 2: pretty aggressive.

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Speaker 4: Will they be the same. There are signs that they

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Speaker 4: will solve patterns.

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Speaker 2: Against Liverpool and against you know, they pressed Liverpool at

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Speaker 2: anfield which is bold, and then they you know, had

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Speaker 2: some excellent moments where they baited Tottenham into a trap,

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Speaker 2: got in behind because of it and probably should have scored.

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Speaker 2: That's the only thing that scares me here. But I

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Speaker 2: do like the ender beja real quick.

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Speaker 3: I know you don't have to play here, but quick

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Speaker 3: word on this matchup is it is one of your

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Speaker 3: favorites of the season.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is like trying to choose if I had

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Speaker 1: two children, and I'd be like trying to choose who's

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Speaker 1: my favorite child here? But I agree with you, Anthony.

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Speaker 1: If I had to lean anywhere here, I'd play Brentford.

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Speaker 1: I don't hate. I don't hate the under or maybe

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Speaker 1: a both team to score no which is currently sitting

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Speaker 1: up plus money. The problem I have with Brentford in

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Speaker 1: this match is that they're doing a really poor job

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Speaker 1: of progressing the ball at the field, like their nineteat

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Speaker 1: the progressive passes and dribbles and that's something that you

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Speaker 1: have to be able to do well to play against

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Speaker 1: this Brighton team which deserve me. He's he's kind of

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Speaker 1: similar to Potter, like Anthony said, he's a little bit

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Speaker 1: more aggressive, but again he still loves the counterpress and

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Speaker 1: try to win the ball back when they lose it.

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Speaker 1: So Brentford, you know, going back to started last season,

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Speaker 1: they have not been good at playing through pressure and

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Speaker 1: Frank doesn't like to play a lot of long balls.

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Speaker 1: He likes to, you know, get the passing structures ready,

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Speaker 1: to get triangles going and try to get the ball

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Speaker 1: for it. Well, that's not what you really want to

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Speaker 1: try to do against a good pressing team like Brighton.

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Speaker 1: So for me, I am passing. Might play a ball

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Speaker 1: team to score, no, but yeah, other than that, can't

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Speaker 1: choose between two of my favorite children.

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Speaker 3: Now we get to talk about this one. Leapt off

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Speaker 3: the page. I mean this one just absolutely left up

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Speaker 3: the page. I mean Leicester City plus one thirty at

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Speaker 3: home hosting Crystal Palace plus two ten to Druss plus

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Speaker 3: two forty. Anthony, thank you for the job you did

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Speaker 3: convincing me to bet Crystal Palace last week. I'm back in.

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Speaker 3: It was demoralizing watching them just underperform my bets, Like

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Speaker 3: you've made a good point that they were kind of

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Speaker 3: performing to where the market expect. They're covering spreads, but

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Speaker 3: you know, I bet money lines, so it was a

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Speaker 3: little disappointing. However, I'm back, and the point was how

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Speaker 3: can you get disheartened when you look at the schedule.

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Speaker 3: They played City Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea Newcastle first five of

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Speaker 3: what their first eight to nine games, So that's why

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Speaker 3: you basically just throw out the numbers with Palace. You

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Speaker 3: look at these two teams almost in a vacuum, and

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Speaker 3: you can use the lesser numbers, and they're terrible. They

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Speaker 3: don't defend well, they're not creating scoring chances. We've talked

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Speaker 3: about it every episode about Brendan Rodgers. Sean Dykes apparently

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Speaker 3: is in talks to become what the new manager but

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Speaker 3: thank god, but well we see that happened. Who knows.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's just such an awkward situation. And you're

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Speaker 3: getting Palace there plus two ten at bet three six five.

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Speaker 3: I know they're on the road and they don't perform,

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Speaker 3: but how can you look at this number and not

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Speaker 3: be all over the Eagles here. This is where they're

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Speaker 3: gonna start trending up. The schedule lights up. Lesser have

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Speaker 3: been one of the worst teams in the Premier League.

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Speaker 3: They followed up a four zero win like it's not

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Speaker 3: in a forced with a loss to Bournemuth, and the

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Speaker 3: numbers don't show that that was an unfair result either.

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Speaker 3: It's got to be the Eagles here. It's just got

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Speaker 3: to be BJA.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you. I don't really know why

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Speaker 1: Crystal Palace is sitting in to to one. I think

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Speaker 1: the reason why is because of their numbers this season, right,

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Speaker 1: Like they're not good. Like if you look through Crystal

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Speaker 1: Palace's numbers, like they have the highest expected threat allowed,

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Speaker 1: like they've their night their eighteenth to non penalty expected

295
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Speaker 1: goals allowed like they're dead last and box entries allowed.

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Speaker 1: Like it comes down to the fact that maybe the

297
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Speaker 1: market is saying, like, hey, christ Boss has been really

298
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Speaker 1: bad this season. But like you already mentioned, they've played

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Speaker 1: an incredibly difficult schedule. They've played Arsenal, Liverpool City, Chelsea

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Speaker 1: and Newcastle. Well the matches against they've played against Villa,

301
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Speaker 1: Leeds and Brentford, they only allowed three and a half

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Speaker 1: expected goals and this is still the same back line

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Speaker 1: that allowed under one non penalty expected goal last season.

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Speaker 1: So really what it comes down to is I think

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Speaker 1: the market is saying, like, hey, Crystal Palace, they've been

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Speaker 1: so bad this season, this is, you know, basically an

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Speaker 1: all in spot for Lesser. They have to win. They're

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Speaker 1: sitting in dead last place in the Premier League, but

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Speaker 1: this Lesser, I mean, we've obviously highlighted how bad their

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Speaker 1: defense has been and a lot of it has to

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Speaker 1: do with the Ndy War. They've still also allowed fifteen

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Speaker 1: big scoring chances. They have some injuries now that you

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Speaker 1: and Ddi is out, Mendy is out, so they're basically

314
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Speaker 1: going to be relying on Sumai to be their only

315
00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:30,280
Speaker 1: defensive midfielder because at this point, Telaman's and dews Burry

316
00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:32,960
Speaker 1: Hall do not do a ton of defensive work, which

317
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Speaker 1: basically allows teams to just play right through them. And

318
00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,680
Speaker 1: then you look at their offense. They've been incredibly reliant

319
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Speaker 1: on James Madison just scoring wonder goals from outside the box.

320
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Speaker 1: They're I mean, they're averaging under one non penalty expected

321
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Speaker 1: goal per match. They you know, Madison's got five goals

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Speaker 1: off at one point two expected, and stylistically this is

323
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Speaker 1: this is not a good matchup for them because we

324
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Speaker 1: just saw them try to break down a low block

325
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Speaker 1: and what happens. They created one point two expected goals.

326
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Speaker 1: They didn't look very good offensively. They what Lester really

327
00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,920
Speaker 1: wants is for teams to press them high like they

328
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Speaker 1: have good players like te Leman's like Madison who can

329
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Speaker 1: play the ball through the pressure like their third offensiveass

330
00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,120
Speaker 1: per defensive action. But Chris Palace is going to play

331
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Speaker 1: a low block like they're playing one of the lowest

332
00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:21,000
Speaker 1: defensive lines. Their field tilt is around thirty five percent,

333
00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:24,960
Speaker 1: So trying to get lesser to break down another low

334
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Speaker 1: block when they just were very unsuccessful in doing against

335
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Speaker 1: Borne this defense, Well, how are they supposed to do

336
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,840
Speaker 1: that against Palace? So yeah, I'm with you. I love Palace.

337
00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,200
Speaker 1: I'm taking John o'bett at plus one thirty five, and

338
00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:38,680
Speaker 1: obviously I don't hate a shot on the money line either,

339
00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,120
Speaker 1: So this is going to be a very fun seven

340
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Speaker 1: thirty am tickoff on Saturday. Yeah.

341
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Speaker 3: I can't imagine a better way to start to weet.

342
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,520
Speaker 1: Sean Dye could be in the stands. That's an interesting.

343
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Speaker 2: Debating if I want to mush you guys and also

344
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Speaker 2: bet palace because I never win seven thirty am bets.

345
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Speaker 4: But yeah, I agree, it agrees with spots.

346
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Speaker 3: Where where a mush is it doesn't even matter.

347
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Speaker 1: It gets washed.

348
00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,880
Speaker 3: It's just too good a spot. Yeah, this just screams

349
00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:02,320
Speaker 3: drawed to me.

350
00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,720
Speaker 2: I'll probably take the quarter goal before I take the

351
00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:06,800
Speaker 2: money line here, but I obviously don't disagree with taking

352
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:08,480
Speaker 2: the money line. This game just screams draw to me.

353
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:11,920
Speaker 2: Lester will probably bang one from twenty yards, as they

354
00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:15,040
Speaker 2: always do whenever I bet against them. But I mean, yeah,

355
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,160
Speaker 2: Lester have conceded the second most open play expected goals

356
00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,080
Speaker 2: in the league, so it's yeah, Danny Ward socks, but

357
00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:23,480
Speaker 2: like it's not just him. And by the way, that

358
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:25,480
Speaker 2: whatever the hell he was doing on the second.

359
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,640
Speaker 3: Goal that Bourne mis scored, I have no idea.

360
00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:28,200
Speaker 1: He just like.

361
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,200
Speaker 2: Jumped and like did like one of those like freeze

362
00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,280
Speaker 2: poses and like hoped it would work, and then the

363
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:35,880
Speaker 2: guy just ran past him and kicked it in.

364
00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:40,160
Speaker 3: It was absolutely hilarious. Yeah, he's maybe he's just trying

365
00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:42,880
Speaker 3: to play his way out of the Whales side because

366
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:45,200
Speaker 3: he doesn't want to deal with the pressure of a

367
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:46,880
Speaker 3: nation on his shoulders in.

368
00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,720
Speaker 1: Qatar against our country.

369
00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:53,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. Let's talk about Fulham at Bournemouth. Now, this

370
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 3: is a ten am kickoff on Saturday morning. Fulham their

371
00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,120
Speaker 3: odds on mine as much wenty at home. That tells

372
00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,560
Speaker 3: you a lot about Bourne plus three twenty The draw

373
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,720
Speaker 3: here is plus two seventy five, the Cottagers twentieth and

374
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:12,520
Speaker 3: non penalty expected goals allowed twenty.

375
00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:12,240
Speaker 1: Man.

376
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 3: But if there's any TV you want to be the

377
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 3: worst defensive team in the in the Premier League against

378
00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,360
Speaker 3: it's born with. They're twentieth in shots, box entries, big chances,

379
00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,640
Speaker 3: expected goals. But you just can't try. You can't trust,

380
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,879
Speaker 3: you can't trust this defense as a favorite, especially odds on.

381
00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:29,160
Speaker 3: I don't care if they're home and I don't care

382
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,320
Speaker 3: if that it's born myth. Like these are two sides

383
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,439
Speaker 3: that were both in the championship last year. It's not

384
00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,240
Speaker 3: like there's that much of a gap between them. Like

385
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,920
Speaker 3: I'm taking born myth. They're up there in terms of

386
00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,720
Speaker 3: like my ROI probably this season Bournemuth.

387
00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:43,080
Speaker 1: Well going on there.

388
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:48,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe there's something going on. Caretaker manager bump Beja

389
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 3: the caretaker manager Bump. I'm on the money line. YouTube

390
00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:53,080
Speaker 3: are looking at the total Anthony lets set with you.

391
00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:54,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm looking at it.

392
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,959
Speaker 2: I'm staring at it, and I'm thinking about you know,

393
00:17:57,040 --> 00:18:01,680
Speaker 2: this league is running ridiculously hot for goals and Bournemouth

394
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:02,440
Speaker 2: and Fulham.

395
00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:03,720
Speaker 3: Are two of the main teams and the main.

396
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 4: Culprits of that.

397
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,320
Speaker 2: Bournemouth scored twice for off about one point two, benefited

398
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 2: from some bad goalkeeping, some bad defending, but this is

399
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,359
Speaker 2: still a really bad attacking team, the worst in the

400
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:17,280
Speaker 2: prem and Fulham have overperformed as well. They're riding the

401
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,720
Speaker 2: hot streak that has continued from last season. In their

402
00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,720
Speaker 2: finishing numbers, they continue to be due to regress. They

403
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:26,119
Speaker 2: scored you know, two goals in the last two matches,

404
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:30,240
Speaker 2: but both were pretty fortunate. They put three pass fourst

405
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 2: on like their first six shots. This team, like the

406
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,159
Speaker 2: regression is absolutely coming. The last four performances have been

407
00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:42,400
Speaker 2: pretty troubling, but I still have them better than Bournemouth

408
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:44,680
Speaker 2: and they're at home. Like I make the minus one ten,

409
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,879
Speaker 2: I have no value here on the side and I

410
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 2: lean to the under just out of principle. But I've

411
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,119
Speaker 2: lost enough money on these these relegation unders of just

412
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:56,200
Speaker 2: dumb goals going in, and I feel like this is

413
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 2: one of those games where it may happen again.

414
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,600
Speaker 3: Well, if it continues to trend this way, we'll pick

415
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,359
Speaker 3: a weekend who's been every single under on the ball

416
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:04,160
Speaker 3: under round Rob.

417
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:06,439
Speaker 1: It's gonna be the week before the World.

418
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 3: But as I say, right before the World Cup, and

419
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 3: everyone's got their eyes somewhere else, maybe an under round

420
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 3: robin as a group VJ, what are your thoughts here?

421
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,680
Speaker 1: I am going to take the under. Like Anthony mentioned,

422
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 1: regression is coming. I'll just continue to lose money until

423
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 1: that regression hits. Bournemouth has played seven matches versus non

424
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,919
Speaker 1: Big six sides. They've created four point one expected goals

425
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,479
Speaker 1: and three big scoring chances. Fulham has played six matches

426
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:32,160
Speaker 1: against non Big six sides. They've created six point six

427
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:36,080
Speaker 1: expected goals and five big scoring chances. It's like you mentioned, Michael,

428
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 1: with Bournemouth being dead last and pretty much every single

429
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:42,600
Speaker 1: offensive category, they're sitting in eighth place though. It's pretty astonishing,

430
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 1: and it's because their low block has actually been somewhat successful,

431
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,639
Speaker 1: Like they have a twenty eight point three five percent

432
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 1: field tilt that is the lowest not only in the

433
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 1: pre Mary League, but in all of Europe. They are

434
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:57,080
Speaker 1: playing like they are allowing teams to basically just sit

435
00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 1: inside their final third. But they I've only allowed six

436
00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,399
Speaker 1: point four expected goals in and just two big scoring

437
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 1: chances in the seven matches versus non big six sides,

438
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 1: So I have a hard time seeing, you know how

439
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:12,879
Speaker 1: Fulham is just gonna you know, run away with this

440
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 1: score two three goals and you know, like you said,

441
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,879
Speaker 1: Michael as a favorite win this match. They've I mean,

442
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:21,320
Speaker 1: Fulham has been bad defensively like they've they could just

443
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 1: conceded over three expected goals to west Ham on Sunday.

444
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: They are doing a pretty good job of you know,

445
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 1: preventing teams from getting the ball off the pitch like

446
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 1: they are twelfth and progressive passes and dribbles allowed. They

447
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,640
Speaker 1: have allowed, you know, the most non penalty expected goals,

448
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,480
Speaker 1: but you know they're fifteenth in expected threats. So I'm

449
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:37,920
Speaker 1: going to take the under because I only have two

450
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 1: point two goals projected for this match. Fulham did hold

451
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 1: Bournemouth to just two expected goals over the two meetings

452
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,639
Speaker 1: in the Championship last year. So I'm gonna bet on

453
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,159
Speaker 1: some of that aggression and take under two and a

454
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 1: half goals and watch a bunch of bangers go in.

455
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,679
Speaker 3: I mean the past three matches now that we'll be

456
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 3: talking about have involved five. I mean, you could throw

457
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,280
Speaker 3: palace in there right now because where there's inning in

458
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: the table. But I think we all expect them to

459
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 3: get out and of course born with here an eighth,

460
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:07,360
Speaker 3: but they're firmly in the relegation battle, but five relegation scrappers,

461
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,240
Speaker 3: and including this match between Wolves who are also hots On,

462
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 3: I mean minus one forty three Wolverhampton are against Nottingham

463
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 3: Forest plus four to twenty five. The draw here is

464
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 3: plus two to seventy five. We know the Wolves offense

465
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,479
Speaker 3: is due for some positive regression and this Forest defense

466
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 3: is so bad. But you just can't make Wolverhampton minus

467
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 3: one forty three against another Premier League team with the

468
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 3: way that they're going right now. I just don't, I

469
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 3: just don't see it. I'm on Forest. I don't even

470
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 3: want to talk about it because this I mean, I'm

471
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 3: going down the bet On Bourne with and then I'm

472
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 3: going to back that up with a bet On Forest.

473
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 3: They might lose by combining six goals or something. I mean,

474
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 3: that would be almost a win. Bja.

475
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 1: I actually think that there are some encouraging signs for

476
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:49,959
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest right now, and I agree with you. I'm

477
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 1: gonna be on them. You know, plus half a goal

478
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 1: plus one twenty five. You know, maybe we can get

479
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 1: a plus plus one. We'll take that. I mean, Wolves,

480
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,120
Speaker 1: I don't really care that they've underperformed offensively. They're still

481
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 1: averaging point eighty nine non penalties expected goals and created

482
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 1: just six big scoring chances. And they are one of

483
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 1: these teams that just cannot turn final third possession into

484
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 1: a scoring chance. Like they have a one point three

485
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: expected threat, which is eleventh in the Premier League. But

486
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,160
Speaker 1: you know, Brahlmannz is still out, Pedro Nato is still

487
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 1: out for this match, so they're attacking options and the

488
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 1: depth of their attack is starting to thin out. Not

489
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 1: Eham Forrest has been very, very unfortunate defensively. They've allowed

490
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: nine goals from outside the box. That's crazy like that.

491
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 1: Some teams don't even allow nine goals for the entire

492
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 1: season from outside the box. Anderson and the thing, well,

493
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,640
Speaker 1: the thing is Anthony. He's only got a minus three

494
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 1: post shot XG plus minus. So these these shots that

495
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 1: are coming from out the box are just absolute bangers

496
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 1: put into the top corner of the net. So they're

497
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 1: just finishing at a crazy rate. I mean the last

498
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 1: four matches Forrest has played Bournemouth, Fulham, Lester and Villa,

499
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 1: I would say pretty much on par with Wolves. Offensively.

500
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 1: They've only allowed three point seven expected goals in their match,

501
00:22:56,720 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: but their opponents have scored eleven goals, So this team

502
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 1: is actually due for some positive aggression. I mean Wolves,

503
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 1: they've taken a hundred and five shots this season, fifty

504
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 1: of them have come from outside the box. That's the

505
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,160
Speaker 1: most in the Premier League. So I like Forest here Wolves.

506
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 1: I think Wolves is definitely overvalued. I only have Wolves

507
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,879
Speaker 1: projected around even money, so I'm going to be on

508
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 1: Forest plus half a goal plus one twenty five or

509
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 1: maybe plus one. But yeah, I think actually Nottingham Forest

510
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,640
Speaker 1: is going to start to provide a lot of value

511
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 1: here in the market, which is how crazy the regression

512
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 1: is going to be steering towards them.

513
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 2: I think I had the under in every one of

514
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 2: those matches where they took all those goals. Matter for

515
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 2: the Bucks.

516
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 1: Yeah.

517
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 2: Actually I had the under the Bournemouth, the Fulham match

518
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 2: and the Western match and they conceded all the goals

519
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 2: from all the places, so that was fun.

520
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 3: Anything for you here, Anthony or Yeah, I lean.

521
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:44,880
Speaker 4: Toward Forrest as well.

522
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 2: I think it's Forrest is still a by low right

523
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:51,119
Speaker 2: now then, Unknow. I performances have been that they've played

524
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 2: these very good, very mediocre teams about even in the

525
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 2: last four matches each of them.

526
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to be enough.

527
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 2: I think I think there's still probably going to end

528
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 2: up getting relegated, but there will be goodbye Low spots.

529
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 2: You look at the upcoming schedule, it's kind of a

530
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 2: must win. They have Brightoned, Liverpool, Arsenal, Brentford's Palace, United, Chelsea.

531
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 2: Those are their next seven. It's going to be very

532
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 2: hard to get points from those. So, like, I still

533
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 2: think they're going down because they were so bad at

534
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:21,919
Speaker 2: the beginning of the season. But the elean toward for

535
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 2: us as well.

536
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:25,199
Speaker 3: That brings us to the twelve thirty pm kickoff on

537
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 3: Saturday Podcast Derby between Spurs.

538
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 1: Third week in a row for Podcast Derby.

539
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 3: It's pretty exciting stuff. Spurs remindus two hundred against everartten

540
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,919
Speaker 3: plus five fifty. The draw is plus three fifty ah

541
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 3: bat three six five. I think this is you know

542
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 3: or nothing because of the price. Stylistically, we talk about

543
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 3: how Spurs, you know, they'd prefer the other team to

544
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 3: kind of have the impetus to move the ball around,

545
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 3: to put the ball on the deck. Everdon't do it

546
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 3: a little bit. But let's recall what happened what is

547
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,640
Speaker 3: it now eight months ago? Seven months ago when Spurs

548
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,360
Speaker 3: hosts at Everton on a Monday night. During the.

549
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 1: You guys were trying to tell.

550
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 3: Me everything we're going down every week, and I was saying, no,

551
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 3: just trust Lampard, trust the process, they'll stay up. I was,

552
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 3: of course, I was right. It looked bleak after they

553
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 3: played Spurs, and that was because Lampard was naive and

554
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 3: wanted Ever to put the ball on the deck, knock

555
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,199
Speaker 3: it around and football their way through Spurs, who just

556
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 3: happily waited for them to make a mistake and countered

557
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 3: on them.

558
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, press Tottenham and leave it on the space on

559
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 2: the wings. Yeah, it was really in strategy against Spurs.

560
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 3: You know, maybe he was playing the long game, thinking

561
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 3: they'll think I'll do it again this time, but I

562
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 3: just do not see that coming. I think everything's going

563
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 3: to set up a set up a big blue bus

564
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 3: here and that could give Spurs problems, especially as a minus.

565
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 3: You know, two hundred favorites, it's not the type of

566
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 3: number of one LA in this stylistic matchup, so it's

567
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 3: severed in or nothing Anthony.

568
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,919
Speaker 2: Spurs had a pretty mediocre showing at Brighton. You know

569
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 2: good win and the aggregate, but created point seven expected goals,

570
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,719
Speaker 2: couldn't get anything going in transition, got penned in their

571
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 2: own half for large portions of them. They went hosted Frankfurt.

572
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 2: Frankfort took the first five shots of the match scored.

573
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 2: Spurs did get through on a breakaway, then got two penalties,

574
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 2: got a red card even playing up a man in

575
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,199
Speaker 2: the second half. Struggled to control the game and create chances.

576
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 2: It was a very poor showing. But day On Koulievsky

577
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:21,919
Speaker 2: is back. It looks like for this match that is

578
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: a massive boost for a Tottenham team that has struggled

579
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 2: to break down teams who are willing to sit deep

580
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:29,919
Speaker 2: and make them take people on and swing crosses in

581
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 2: and beat their men, and really I think it's been

582
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 2: the biggest problem for this team. Koolseevsky instead of Emerson

583
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 2: Royale having the ball in those areas major difference. So

584
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 2: I think Spurs should be improved. I'll be interested to

585
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 2: watch it, I will not be interested in betting it.

586
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 2: Everton like the one team in the league who haven't

587
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 2: been on a run of overs, mainly because their goalkeeping

588
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 2: has been good for unlike the rest of the league,

589
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 2: and they've they've sat deep and absorbed pressure and haven't

590
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 2: created much. Anthony Gordon suspended. Not great for the attack.

591
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 2: Don't see them doing a ton to Spurs here in

592
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 2: attack at all. I think they could maybe find some

593
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 2: success in encounter, but Spurs are excellent defending their own

594
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:11,160
Speaker 2: penalty area. Everton have had problems turning final their possession

595
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 2: into shots, so I think that there's you know, there's

596
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 2: there's a case for the under. But again I'm gonna

597
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: be sitting away all right.

598
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 3: Let's flip to Sunday BJ This one is all you

599
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 3: Villa or plus three fifty at home hosting Chelsea odds

600
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 3: on minus one twenty five. The draw here is plus

601
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 3: two seventy at but bet three sixty five before it

602
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 3: pass it over to you. Just a reminder that this

603
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 3: ascid Villa team created zero point sixty six or not

604
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 3: zero point sixty six expected goals. If you're listening to

605
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 3: us overseas against not even forced and yet here you are.

606
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, give me the syndicate here. I mean, yeah, Villa

607
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 1: has been bad offensively, Like last six matches they've created

608
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,719
Speaker 1: three point eight expected goals and the only match they

609
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 1: created over one expected goal was against Leeds who got

610
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 1: a red card. So it's it's bad, but this is

611
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 1: still a very very good defense. In five of the

612
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: nine matches this season they've allowed under half of an

613
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 1: expected goal and they've only allowed seven big scoring chances

614
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 1: on the season. Chelsea, I mean, look, this is a

615
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 1: cell high spot for them. They look unbeatable under Graham Potter,

616
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: he's the best manager in the world. Well, this is

617
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 1: a weird kind of spot for them because we have

618
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 1: midweek fixtures coming up. They got a trip to Brentford,

619
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 1: then next weekend they go to Manchester United and then

620
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 1: a very important match in Austria against Salisburg. So if

621
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 1: you're looking for a spot where Chelsea might rotate a

622
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 1: few guys I think this would probably be one of

623
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 1: those matches. You know, Reece James picked up an injury

624
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: against Acy Milan. He's questionable playing this match. I think

625
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 1: that Chelsea will probably be a little more cautious with him.

626
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 1: He might not play. That'll help Aston Villa a little bit.

627
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 1: And the biggest thing here is that, you know, Stephen

628
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: Gerrard faced Graham Potter's Brighton twice in the Premiere Like

629
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 1: I know, GRHANM. Potter has a much better team, you know,

630
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: than his Brighton team. But it was a pretty difficult

631
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 1: matchup for you know, the Seagulls because they created under

632
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: point eight expected goals in both meetings. They were unable

633
00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: to create a big scoring chance, is what but Potter

634
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: system is not into. Iilely relying on, but somewhat relying

635
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 1: on is getting ball to the wing backs, getting the

636
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 1: ball progressed up the field and swinging and crosses well.

637
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 1: Aston Villa is second in the Premier League in preventing

638
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:10,959
Speaker 1: crosses into their own box their top five and preventing

639
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 1: progressive passes and dribbles. They don't really press that much.

640
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 1: I think Villa is gonna sit in play very defensive

641
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 1: so and I actually have some value on them. I

642
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 1: only have Chelsea projected at plus one twenty four, so

643
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 1: I'm on the syndicate plus half a goal at plus

644
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 1: one ten, and I'm really looking forward to a nice

645
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 1: zero zero draw on Sunday morning.

646
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 2: If Chelsea scores, it's like games over yesty much scares.

647
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 1: Me, Okay, So I'm steering between that. Are both teams

648
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 1: to score? No is at plus one oh five. I'm

649
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 1: trying to decide either the villa home but this thing

650
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 1: is Chelsea with James and Fauna out, It's it's yeah,

651
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 1: I don't know, well either one whatever you feel more

652
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 1: comfortable with.

653
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 3: All right, let's move to another nine am kickoff on Sunday.

654
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 3: That's man United minus one ten hosting Newcastle plus two

655
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 3: eighty at three six by the draw here is supposed

656
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 3: to do seventy. But similar to that Crystal Palace number,

657
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 3: this one. I mean just leapt up the page. If

658
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 3: you cover up the logos and you just look at

659
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: the numbers, you're going to look at them and say

660
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 3: the team B, which we'll say is Newcastle, is probably

661
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 3: the better team this season. And it comes down to

662
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 3: the defense. For Manchester United. They great out as a

663
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 3: bottom ten unit. If you look at the stuff we

664
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 3: look at expected goals, big chances allowed, et cetera, et cetera.

665
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 3: Whereas the Newcastle offense, they're third non penalty expected goals,

666
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 3: fourth in creating shots, third in box entries, and second

667
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 3: and big chances created. This should be a pretty tall

668
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 3: ask for the Manchester United defense to shut down Newcastle here.

669
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 3: It's a great number plus two eighty. I'm in a

670
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 3: team that I rarely bet on Newcastle BJ.

671
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, how do you not have bet Newcastle here? I

672
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: mean United? You mentioned their defensive I'm gonna read off

673
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 1: their defense numbers for everybody. One point five non penalty

674
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 1: expect goals loud for ninety that's sixteenth in the Premier League.

675
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 1: Fifteen point twenty five shots PI that's fifteenth in the

676
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 1: Premier League. One point six eight expected threat per ninety

677
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: that seventeenth in the Premier League. And a forty six

678
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: percent field tilt that is thirteenth in Premier League. Those

679
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 1: are really really bad defensive numbers for a supposed Big

680
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 1: six club or a team that's supposed to be threatening

681
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 1: for the Top six. Like you already mentioned, Newcastle has

682
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 1: outstanding offensive numbers, and yes, I understand they've played somewhat

683
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 1: of an easy schedule. They've only played two Big six clubs. Well,

684
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 1: they scored three goals against Manchester City, created one point

685
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 1: eight expected goals in that match. Then they only created

686
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: point eight expected goals against Liverpool. But Gimaris didn't play,

687
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 1: Allen saint Maximum didn't play, Callum Wilson didn't play and

688
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 1: there was a red card towards the end of the

689
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 1: second half there. Then you look at Newcastle defensively, who

690
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 1: was much better since from the January transfer window on

691
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 1: last season. Well, this season they're only allowing one non

692
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 1: penalty expected goal for ninety minutes, and they're pressing very,

693
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: very effectively, like they have an eight point nine passes

694
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 1: per defensive action. They've forced ninety six high turnovers. That's

695
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 1: the most in the Premier League, which is important in

696
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 1: this match because United is not doing a great job

697
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 1: at playing through pressure, like their twelfth in offensive pass

698
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: per defensive action. And even in the match against Manchester City,

699
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 1: Newcastle forced ten high turnovers. So against the best team,

700
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: that's against the best team the Premier League got playing

701
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 1: with your pressure, So I think they're gonna give United

702
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 1: a lot of problems and if you just think about

703
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 1: it this way again, like you said, Michael, you cover

704
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: up the logos from the January transfer windo on last season,

705
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 1: Newcastle was an even an expected gold differential team United

706
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 1: throughout all of last season. Whether you say they had

707
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 1: some good times under old Dundy Soalshar, maybe a little

708
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 1: bit of resurgers in a ragnik, and then you know

709
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 1: they were basically dead beats towards the end of the season.

710
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 1: They were expected. They were even expected gold differential. You

711
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 1: look at it this season, United is the head of

712
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 1: Newcastle on the table. They're minus one point two expected

713
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: gold differential. Newcastle is at plus seven point seven. How

714
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: can you make Manchester United a minus one oh five

715
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 1: favorite at home? I am on Newcastle plus half a

716
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 1: goal at minus one fifteen.

717
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it looks like you.

718
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 2: Just got course on Newcastle here, haven't we We've decided

719
00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 2: that they're.

720
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: Well, it's just incredible dependent Anthony.

721
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 3: It's many United dependent for bjuh Anthony, anything here for

722
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 3: you Newcastle United.

723
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 4: I mean it's hard.

724
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: It's hard to think about these two midfields and imagine

725
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 2: putting a wager down on Manchester United I mean Joe

726
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 2: Linton and Bruno Gemeras so the two best midfielders on

727
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 2: the pitch right in terms of ball winning and ball progression.

728
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 4: Uh, you know Bill.

729
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 1: Mccomany is out. If he was on the field then yeah, you.

730
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: Know, even even with Casimira out there, I will take

731
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 2: happily take and Joe Linton. I mean, I can make

732
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 2: a strong case for the over here right, United will

733
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 2: create plenty and transition. Newcastle should dominate large portions of

734
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 2: this match. I think, uh, and United's attacking talent has

735
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 2: shown its quality.

736
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 3: I think in the last few weeks.

737
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 2: Where they are starting to play a little bit better

738
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 2: in attack to creating more chances. I know there's some

739
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 2: injuries now, but just looking at Antony and and and

740
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 2: a fit and inform Marcus Rashford alone makes this United

741
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 2: attack very dangerous. I can make a strong cage for

742
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 2: the over and I can make a case for Newcastle too,

743
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 2: just based on the midfield quality. I think it's a

744
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 2: huge gap in that. I think that's the biggest thing

745
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:13,439
Speaker 2: that's propelled Newcastle to their excellent underlying numbers. The other thing,

746
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 2: I don't think their attack will continue to run this well.

747
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 2: I mean they've they're getting a lot of production to

748
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,879
Speaker 2: like Miguel Almron Colory skeptical on that one, but.

749
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 3: You and Jack grealish. But maybe he's just inspired by

750
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 3: what Greenlish said about him.

751
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 1: Over the summer.

752
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 2: Very possible, But yes, I would lean toward Newcastle the

753
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 2: over here. I will probably end up betting Newcastle because

754
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 2: I don't want it either. I think there's there's a

755
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 2: good chance.

756
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 1: This finally seeing the light arch finally see.

757
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:41,320
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not cashing any tickets. I feel like

758
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:43,720
Speaker 2: I feel like I'm fading this team, not cashing any tickets.

759
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 2: So except in the Europa League, where where they've.

760
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 1: About cashing the tickets and it's just about betting.

761
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,720
Speaker 4: About sending the message, right, about sending a message.

762
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 2: I mean they've played better in the league. Europa League's

763
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 2: been ugly and that leaves me to pause.

764
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,439
Speaker 1: Europa League game on Thursday. That's another good point, Antony.

765
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, yes, just chock full of good points today. Yeah,

766
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 3: all right, let's talk leads and Arsenal. It's at ellen

767
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 3: Road Leeds United five to one at bet three six

768
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 3: five right now, Arsenal minus won eighty two of the

769
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 3: draw is plus three twenty. This is pretty simple. You

770
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 3: look at this number, you know, Arsenal are just way overvalved.

771
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 3: What mightus won eighty two on the road. He gets

772
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,439
Speaker 3: a really tricky side the matchup though. You could see

773
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 3: it being just an absolute nightmare for Leads with their

774
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 3: kind of high risk, high reward style against this Arsenal

775
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,399
Speaker 3: team that can kind of play them off the pitch.

776
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:33,919
Speaker 4: They could.

777
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 3: Anthony, you're on record saying Jesse Marsh might be the

778
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 3: best manager in the world, and you like leads here,

779
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 3: I do you know?

780
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 2: I think we talked by low and sell high when

781
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 2: the online performances maybe are telling a different story. And

782
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 2: I think this is a good example.

783
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,880
Speaker 4: Leads have not gotten a result a win rather.

784
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 2: Than their last five league matches, but you look at

785
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 2: their expected goals four and against there are even an

786
00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 2: average team in the Premier League project Arsenal as a

787
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 2: point seven goal favorite in this match. They're now laying

788
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 2: a full goal Arsenal off a huge home win. They

789
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 2: have to travel to play Boto Glimpt on Thursday. Then

790
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 2: they're going to travel on Sunday on the road. Arsenal

791
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 2: plus one point seven expected goal difference per ninety at

792
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 2: home this year on the road just plus point four

793
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 2: per match. Even if you just took the pure expected

794
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 2: goal difference of these two teams, Arsenal has been a

795
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 2: full goal better per match than Leads this year.

796
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 4: Okay, Arsenal is laying a goal on the road.

797
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 2: Now. Leads are an average Premier League team.

798
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 3: Arsenal is good.

799
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,879
Speaker 2: They're very much improved. You. They're probably the second best team.

800
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 2: I've got them power rated a smidge below Liverpool and

801
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 2: I'm very close to just flipping that at this point.

802
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 2: We're probably like one two games away from that happening,

803
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:47,240
Speaker 2: and yet they are still too big of a favorite

804
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 2: here on the road.

805
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,840
Speaker 3: I like Leads, BJ I don't want to let you

806
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 3: talk about this scheme because of what you did last week,

807
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 3: but you didn't every week. It's Arsenal but refusing to

808
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 3: admit how good they're going to give you a thirty seconds.

809
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 3: Just wait till be down Groad, Spurs. It's gonna be

810
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 3: a great day.

811
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I've actually upgrade Arsenal a little bit. Performance

812
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 1: against Liverpool really kind of signified it for me that, like, hey, yeah,

813
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 1: this this season is a little different than than seasons passed. Now,

814
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: this is like Anthony mentioned, this is the classic Arsenal

815
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: spot where coming off a big win, they just take

816
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:22,359
Speaker 1: all of our hopes and they just curb stop them

817
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 1: and leads wins three nothing, just like they did against

818
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 1: Chelsea earlier this season. But again, Arsenal is doing a

819
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 1: much better job of playing through pressure like they're doing

820
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 1: a good job getting in behind teams. They'll probably rest

821
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 1: a lot of guys against both a glimpse and they

822
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 1: pretty much have that Europa League group wrapped up. So yeah,

823
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 1: I Arsenal is overvalued, but there's I mean, I only

824
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 1: have them at minus one forty three, but I can't

825
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 1: get to the plus one on Leeds. So and not

826
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,359
Speaker 1: a fan of Jesse Marsh, so Arteta versus Jesse Marsh

827
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 1: not a great manager. I'll matchup for leads, so I'll

828
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 1: be passing.

829
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 4: So manager bj One fired last year it should be noted.

830
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 1: Hey, you know what, I'm sorry that I'm hard of

831
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,360
Speaker 1: my managers. You know, I want them to perform, and

832
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 1: you know what I Thinkion's Arteta. I put the pressure

833
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 1: on Arteta and he performed, so credit me fair enough.

834
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 3: Easiest pass on the board for me on a board

835
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 3: I liked a lot of these games as you can tell.

836
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,839
Speaker 3: But Southampton and west Ham Saints plus one ninety at

837
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 3: home at at three six five plus one forty, the

838
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,399
Speaker 3: draws plus two forty. It's almost like the Premier League

839
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 3: s tould just say you guys pick a score, will

840
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 3: agree to it that we don't need to play this one, Anthony,

841
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 3: real quick anything here.

842
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 4: I'll make the case west Ham's improving the.

843
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 2: Case like the defense is maintained, but the addition of

844
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 2: Lucas Pakeetta has maked by the way Pakeeta rice the

845
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:43,399
Speaker 2: midfield hilarious, but I'll make the case that he's really

846
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 2: improving this team's attack. There they felt like they were

847
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 2: an attacker short. Scomaka is kind of getting more minutes

848
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 2: now and he's showing to be an average Premier League striker,

849
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 2: which is really what I think he is. But you know,

850
00:38:55,040 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 2: west Ham's an average team and Paketa has adding progressive passing.

851
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: You look at his numbers, very impressive underlying progressive passing numbers.

852
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 2: Got four shots against Fulham, now has seven shots and

853
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 2: three matches. Adding a little bit from that midfield might

854
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 2: be just what they needed. And now you kind of

855
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 2: complete the midfield three. I like where west Ham is

856
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 2: trending now a little bit. I think they're a decent

857
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 2: by low here against Southampton, who conceees a ton of

858
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 2: big scoring chances, who has had major problems on set pieces.

859
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 2: That's an area where west Ham has excelled in the

860
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 2: past two years. I like west Ham.

861
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 3: And John Lucaskamaka feels like he's getting better. Someone pointed

862
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:36,320
Speaker 3: out something to me, I shouldn't say something to me.

863
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 3: I heard it on another podcast, another soccer podcast, that

864
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 3: no World Cup winner from Italy has ever played in

865
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 3: the Premier League. Pretty interesting. I don't know if it's true,

866
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:48,800
Speaker 3: but that's what they said. All right, let's move to

867
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 3: the Bundesliga now, as we'll chant through.

868
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 4: Europe will not change this year because there will not

869
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 4: be any Italian.

870
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 2: World Cup winner.

871
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 3: And if I'm wrong, leave us a five story review

872
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 3: and with the name of the player that in the

873
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 3: reviews on Apple Podcasts, and our producers will find you

874
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:08,879
Speaker 3: and give you some action network swag. Now onto the Bundesliga.

875
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 3: But before we get there, let's remind you that Why

876
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:14,280
Speaker 3: Wonderful is presented by bet three six five, the world's

877
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 3: favorite sportsbook brand. Sign Up with promo code action to

878
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 3: get bet three six fives exclusive sign up off for

879
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 3: a new jersey in Colorado. Bet one dollar on any

880
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:25,879
Speaker 3: game you get two hundred free. On to Germany. Now

881
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 3: on to Anthony. What do you have for your favorite

882
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 3: bet in the Bundesliga.

883
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, dortmun and Unio and Berlin under two and a half,

884
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 2: two teams who's unders. I've been betting pretty much all year.

885
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet them when they play against one another

886
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:41,879
Speaker 2: at two and a half.

887
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 4: There's not a ton to say.

888
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 2: We've already talked about Shiraldo Becker and Jordan p Foch

889
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 2: on this podcast. Two are the biggest overformers in all

890
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 2: of Europe. I do worry about Dortman's defense traveling a

891
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 2: little bit. They haven't been great on the road, but

892
00:40:56,960 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 2: Berlin's attack so bad that I'm gonna swallow this one

893
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 2: and take the under.

894
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 3: I'm going back to our old friends mines. They're plus

895
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 3: one eighty seven on the road against Verder Bremen. We're

896
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:10,840
Speaker 3: expecting this Minds team to trend up. I mean a

897
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 3: team we all liked as a bet to finish inside

898
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 3: the top four. So this kind of rocky patch of

899
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 3: form is it going to determin me?

900
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 1: Plus?

901
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 3: The Bremen defensive numbers aren't that good towards the bottom

902
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 3: of the Bunesleigue in a few of them. So it's

903
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 3: it's minds for me. BJ what do you have?

904
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 1: I'm taking Colonne minus one thirty seven at home against Augsburg.

905
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,080
Speaker 1: These two clubs are sitting right next to each other

906
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 1: at the table. But boy, is Cologne just miles better

907
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: than Augsburg. It's it's been a weird season for Colonne.

908
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 1: They've had a lot of red cards in their matches.

909
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 1: Only four of their nine matches has there been at

910
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 1: not a red card on either side. But in those

911
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 1: four matches they do have a plus one point nine

912
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 1: expected goldifferential. They are third in the Bundesliga and big

913
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 1: scoring chances their second and expected threat, and they are

914
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 1: second in offensive passes for defensive action, which is key

915
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 1: because pressing is about the only thing that Augsburg does

916
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 1: well defensively. I mean, man, this Augsburg team is doing

917
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 1: it again like. They have a minus eight point eight

918
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 1: expected goal diffronial in nine matches, but they are sitting

919
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:15,240
Speaker 1: in tenth place. They're dead last offensively in box entries.

920
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 1: Cross is expected threat field tilt and most importantly their

921
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 1: dead last of playing through pressure, and Cologne is second

922
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 1: in passes per defensive action. Then you know, you look

923
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 1: at their defense. They've allowed sixteen point six expected goals

924
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 1: in nine matches and have allowed a whopping twenty two

925
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 1: big scoring chances. So I have Colonne projected at minus

926
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,439
Speaker 1: one eighty. I think minus one thirty seven at home

927
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: is an awfully cheap price for this type of match.

928
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 1: So I'm on Colonne. I'm really looking forward to watching

929
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 1: Augsburg do what they do best and win one nothing.

930
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 3: All right, let's set up Al Classic Cup ten to

931
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 3: fifteen am on Sunday, Real Madrid at home they plus

932
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 3: one twenty five at at three six five Barcelona plus

933
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,239
Speaker 3: two ten. The draw here is plus two sixty. Pretty sure,

934
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 3: I know where this conversation is going. We always talk

935
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:02,800
Speaker 3: about how Real Madrid it's a bit of a you know,

936
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 3: a tough nut to crack because they're always overperforming compared

937
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 3: to their underlying metrics. They're running into Barcelona, who are superb.

938
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 3: They had one wonky result a couple weeks ago, but

939
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 3: everything under the hood looks great for Javi's boys. So

940
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 3: two plus two ten I think Barcelona's worth a bet here, Anthony.

941
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 4: I wouldn't say everything looks great under the hood.

942
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 2: They've got a bunch of defensive injuries. They looked pretty

943
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 2: bad defensively today against Inter in the Champions League. This

944
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 2: is something we talked about on the last pod, the

945
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 2: Champions League preview pod. We talked about how Barcelona's defense

946
00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 2: has been overperforming and was due to conced a ton

947
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 2: of goals and they let three in and they could

948
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:40,240
Speaker 2: have led four or five and if we're being honest,

949
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 2: and tore with some shocking decision making in the final third.

950
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 2: But that was a thriller. But I think Real Madrid

951
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:50,800
Speaker 2: you kind of have the overrated Real Madrid attack against

952
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 2: the overrated BARSA defense. I don't know how I want

953
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:54,839
Speaker 2: to get at this from a betting point of view.

954
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 2: I thought we'd get plus a half on Barsa. I

955
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 2: bet them if we did.

956
00:43:58,400 --> 00:43:58,840
Speaker 3: We didn't.

957
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 2: I may wait a little bit it here on the

958
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 2: market and see where it ends up. I also might

959
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 2: play just a beatts at over two and a half

960
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:05,880
Speaker 2: and be square and just take the over, because I

961
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 2: do think there's going to be a back, a lot

962
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 2: of back and forth in this game between two pretty

963
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 2: overrated defenses, especially with the Barsa injuries and real just

964
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,760
Speaker 2: never defending anything. If you watch the second half against

965
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,600
Speaker 2: Vigo that Barsa played last weekend, they con see it

966
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 2: over one and a half expected goals.

967
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:22,239
Speaker 3: They easily could have been conceding more.

968
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 2: And now they're playing in a reality team, which you

969
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 2: know they're overrated, but they're still very good. So it's

970
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 2: a danger zone here.

971
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 3: Bj Any thoughts here and now Classico before we take

972
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:33,359
Speaker 3: a roll around the rest of Spain.

973
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:35,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do show a little bit of value on

974
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 1: Barcelona north of two to one. Like Anthony mentioned, it's

975
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 1: interesting because you look through Barcelona's schedule like they have

976
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 1: their their biggest tests have come, you know, two matches

977
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 1: against Inter and then against Byron Munich. You know, the

978
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 1: match against bier Munich. I can't remember who said it

979
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,880
Speaker 1: on Twitter, but essentially, you know, Byron essentially took a

980
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 1: standing standing eight count and then delivered a seventh round knockout.

981
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 1: So the thing with Barcelona is that, yes they lost

982
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 1: to Byron Munich, Yes they lost to Inter, and then

983
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 1: you know they obviously had some defensive problems today. But

984
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 1: that last match against Inter, you know, internally created what

985
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:11,319
Speaker 1: point two expecting goals like they didn't really do much

986
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 1: in the entire match. Now I worry here for Barcelona,

987
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:16,840
Speaker 1: like Anti mantioned with the defensive injuries and the Barcelona

988
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 1: wingbacks can get exploited pretty badly here by Venetius Junior.

989
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 1: You know, Kareem Benzema is also back for Real Madrid.

990
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 1: They had a sleepy match against Shocktar in the midweek.

991
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 1: But yeah, from a price point perspective, you know, since

992
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 1: Shabi took over, Barcelona has been considerably better on XG

993
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 1: than Real Madrid and La Liga. And you know, Real

994
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 1: Madrid has been good in La Liga defensively, but let's

995
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 1: be honest, they have not played a difficult schedule whatsoever,

996
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 1: and even through the Champions League, they haven't played a

997
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 1: difficult schedule, like they haven't played a team to the

998
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 1: level of Barcelona yet. So it's now you have to

999
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,359
Speaker 1: ask that question, is Real Madrid ready for this type

1000
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 1: of test? I'm not so sure. So I do actually

1001
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 1: like Barcelona at plus two to ten on the money line.

1002
00:45:58,200 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 3: Anthony, what else in La Liga for you?

1003
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1004
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 2: I steered at this one for a while and I

1005
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 2: looked at it and I was like, really, am I

1006
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 2: gonna like what am I missing with this Bill Boo game?

1007
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 3: But I'm taking Bao.

1008
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 2: I'm not missing anything, Okay, ad Letti had a good

1009
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 2: performance today at home against performance did not get the

1010
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 2: result because some minula. Apparently, and this was unbeknownst to me,

1011
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 2: is the best goalie in the world. He has saved

1012
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 2: more goals than anybody in the Champions League.

1013
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 4: Thus far, Bruges has not.

1014
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 3: Conceded yet.

1015
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 1: I mean eight expected goals allowed zero.

1016
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 4: It's pretty remarkable stuff.

1017
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 2: But let's be honest, the best team in this match

1018
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 2: thus far in La Liga is the team called bill

1019
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 2: Bao and they're at home and they're at pick Him.

1020
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 2: And this is something that's been a long time coming

1021
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 2: for billbo They put together an excellent underlying campaign last season,

1022
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 2: then the results had not shown.

1023
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:56,520
Speaker 3: Now they're finally showing.

1024
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 2: I'll take them drawn. A bet in this matchup could

1025
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:01,920
Speaker 2: very well ended a draw. That's why I want the

1026
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 2: protection there. But minus one twenty at home, better team.

1027
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 3: I'll take it. Yeah, we love athletic cook Taba Boo

1028
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:13,839
Speaker 3: on this podcast. I'm probably with you on that one

1029
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:16,439
Speaker 3: Hertzego against that Letty and A Letti will be fine

1030
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:17,359
Speaker 3: in the Champions League.

1031
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:19,439
Speaker 4: They'll get the three four fun I think they are fine.

1032
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:24,279
Speaker 3: They that Leverkusen lodged. But yeah, BJ what else for

1033
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 3: you in La Liga?

1034
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:28,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to take real sociate Arono Betts at

1035
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 1: even money against Celta Vigo. This real soociate. That team

1036
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:36,400
Speaker 1: put in an incredibly impressive performance against Berial last weekend,

1037
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:38,919
Speaker 1: won the match one nothing, held Thereal to just point

1038
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 1: four x G and in fact vi Ariel only had

1039
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 1: one shot up until the seventy third minute. And the

1040
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:45,799
Speaker 1: reason they've they were so dominant that match, and why

1041
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:48,400
Speaker 1: they've had a good resurgence here in La Liga is

1042
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:50,320
Speaker 1: because they turned into one of the best pressing teams

1043
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:52,879
Speaker 1: in the entire league, the third and pass per defensive action.

1044
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 1: They forced the fifth most high turnovers and they're third

1045
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 1: in preventing progressive passes and dribbles. That's extremely important in

1046
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 1: this because Celta Vigo is dead last and Laaligue at

1047
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,879
Speaker 1: playing through pressure. Plus they're not a good offensive team,

1048
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 1: like they're averaging point eighty five non penalty expectacles per match.

1049
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:11,920
Speaker 1: They have six big scoring chances created. Their entire offense

1050
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 1: is just built around just swinging cross in the box

1051
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 1: like their second in l'aligua at you know, completing those

1052
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 1: crosses in the box well rial Soociad's fifth at preventing

1053
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:23,800
Speaker 1: crosses and sociate Dad. I mentioned it last week, but

1054
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 1: their offense in six matches since Ishak left the club,

1055
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:30,360
Speaker 1: they've created nine point five expected goals and have fourteen

1056
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 1: big scoring chances in those matches. And you know, Celta

1057
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:35,840
Speaker 1: Ego does lead La Liga in pressures for ninety but

1058
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 1: they're not effective pressing at all, like their eighteenth and

1059
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 1: passive per defensive action, and Sociad is third of playing

1060
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 1: through pressure. So I really don't think Celta Vigo should

1061
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 1: be a favorite here at home. So give me Sociatedad

1062
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 1: draw no bad it even money.

1063
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:49,840
Speaker 3: Let's go right back to you for Syria.

1064
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:53,360
Speaker 1: Ah yeah, how about Jose Mourinho minus one fifty on

1065
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 1: the road against Sampdoria, who's sitting in dead last. Yeah,

1066
00:48:56,360 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 1: this Sampdoria team is really really bad, Like they're they're

1067
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 1: very bad defensively their eighteenth and non penalty expected goals,

1068
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:06,759
Speaker 1: their fifteenth and big scoring chances allowed. Roma has underperformed

1069
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,800
Speaker 1: considerably this season. They only have a plus three actual

1070
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 1: world differential, but a plus eleven expect a goal differential.

1071
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:16,720
Speaker 1: The last match against Leche went up one nothing, Lechi

1072
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 1: got a red card, somehow Lecha scored and then Roma

1073
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 1: ended up creating three and a half expected goals and

1074
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 1: only won the match to one. But yeah, this is

1075
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 1: I think the price is just way way too low

1076
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:29,759
Speaker 1: here for a Roma side, who I actually think is

1077
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 1: probably the close to maybe the best team in Syria

1078
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:34,759
Speaker 1: A right now. Obviously I think Napoli, so you the

1079
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 1: top table is the best. But you know, if you're

1080
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 1: looking for a good by low to win Siria, a

1081
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 1: Roma is right up there. That Josie Marina has his

1082
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 1: team cooking right now.

1083
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 3: Yeah he does. It's been fun to watch miss Jose Anthony.

1084
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 2: Dayon Steinkovich, the new manager at sam Dooria, former manager

1085
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 2: of Red Star Belgrade, b ja's favorite team in Europa

1086
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 2: League contest. They just after rethink my bet oh man, Yeah,

1087
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 2: the new manager inbound for something.

1088
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:01,759
Speaker 3: They're really bad.

1089
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 2: They're so horrendous.

1090
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:03,920
Speaker 3: Pretty much.

1091
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 2: The only decent result they've gotten this year came in

1092
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:09,360
Speaker 2: stoppage time against Latsio. So that being said, I like

1093
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:11,400
Speaker 2: Terno in the turn Darby.

1094
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:15,320
Speaker 4: Juventus. Somebody like poked them with a stick or something like.

1095
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:21,360
Speaker 2: They got absolutely pounded by Mccabi Haifa in the Champions

1096
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:26,359
Speaker 2: League on Tuesday, after a pretty lackluster showing at home

1097
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 2: against mccaby Jifa the week before, and they are now

1098
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:33,719
Speaker 2: basically out of the Champions League and now they have

1099
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:35,800
Speaker 2: to go on the road, and they're a road favorite

1100
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 2: against Torino despite having worse underlying numbers. Tono extremely unlucky

1101
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 2: in their last game at home. Should have won that match,

1102
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 2: dominated it didn't get the result. That's kind of a

1103
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 2: Torino special. I'm less worried about that, you know, when

1104
00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:49,360
Speaker 2: I'm catching a quarter of a goal, which I am

1105
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 2: in this case, and so I think, I mean I

1106
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:53,919
Speaker 2: make Tono a favorite. I like them at home here.

1107
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 3: All right now after France, where bj will not be

1108
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 3: betting against Claire on Foot.

1109
00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 1: No Monico is a little too steep this weekend. But

1110
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 1: clairemont Foot's playing Stade Neebress next week. That match is

1111
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:10,919
Speaker 1: going to suck. I like ren leone over three goals

1112
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:13,160
Speaker 1: at plus one ten. You have two of the best

1113
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 1: five but two of the best three offenses here in league.

1114
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 1: On Leone just fired Peter boss, new manager bounce for them.

1115
00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:22,439
Speaker 1: But the rent offense, you know, outside of PSG, they've

1116
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:24,880
Speaker 1: created the most non penalty expected goals. They're taking the

1117
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 1: most shots per ninety and they're the best team at

1118
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:30,359
Speaker 1: playing your pressure, which is very key because leyon is second,

1119
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:32,799
Speaker 1: and pass per defensive action you know, leyone is top five,

1120
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:36,360
Speaker 1: and pretty much every single offensive category they play very open.

1121
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 1: I expect a lot of goals in this match. I

1122
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:41,399
Speaker 1: have around three point three expected, so over three goals

1123
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 1: getting plus money at that, I think there's some decent

1124
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 1: value on it.

1125
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 3: All. Right, now on to our favorite part of the program,

1126
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 3: our three leg Buney line parlay. This one's going to

1127
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:52,040
Speaker 3: hit and I'll tell you why when it's my turn.

1128
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:53,239
Speaker 3: But Anthony, let's start with you.

1129
00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:55,879
Speaker 2: I think we had two legs last week with second

1130
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:58,520
Speaker 2: half leads that lost minds really let me down there late.

1131
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 2: I'm going to take Tino US two fifteen at home.

1132
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 2: I just talked about this game, so I'm happy to

1133
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:06,320
Speaker 2: talk about it again. Threno is, by my numbers, the

1134
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:10,839
Speaker 2: better team. They're at home. I'm getting over plus two

1135
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 2: hundred on them. I don't think they should be an

1136
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 2: underdog at all. I'll bet them pretty simple.

1137
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 3: Simple as and I mean, let's talk about Newcastle and unite.

1138
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 3: Newcastle's plus two eighty. If you look at the records,

1139
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:25,920
Speaker 3: the gold differential, the underlying data, they're all going to

1140
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 3: tell you the same thing. Newcastle is just as good

1141
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 3: or better than Manchester United. We're also playing a midweek

1142
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:35,399
Speaker 3: match easy bet plus two eighty and Newcastle and they're

1143
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:37,319
Speaker 3: the biggest underdog of this parlay. That's why I think

1144
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 3: it's going to hit BJ.

1145
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:42,360
Speaker 1: What do you have Myorca plus two hundred on the

1146
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 1: island against Sevilla another Sevie fade. I really don't think

1147
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:49,280
Speaker 1: Myorca should be an underdog here. You know, Sylvia's obviously

1148
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:51,560
Speaker 1: has a new manager, Bounce with Sam Polli. They looked

1149
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:53,920
Speaker 1: a lot better against Dortmund, but this is still the

1150
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,440
Speaker 1: team in Laaliga that's considered the most big scoring chances.

1151
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:59,719
Speaker 1: They're nineteenth and non penalty expectacles allowed and Majorca. While

1152
00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:02,560
Speaker 1: they're not that grat of an offense, they've been top

1153
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 1: five and non penalty expectacles allowed their fifth and big

1154
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:08,480
Speaker 1: scoring chances allowed, and most importantly, last season they were

1155
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:11,640
Speaker 1: one of the most unlucky teams in all of Spain,

1156
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 1: they had a minus twenty seven actual goal differential and

1157
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:17,840
Speaker 1: only a minus eight expected gold differential. Plus on the

1158
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:21,480
Speaker 1: island they had a plus four expected goldiffrenchal at home,

1159
00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:23,080
Speaker 1: so they play much better at home than they do

1160
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:25,800
Speaker 1: on the road. It's obviously Sabbia coming off of a

1161
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:28,520
Speaker 1: Champions League match in the midweek, they might have to

1162
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 1: rotate some guys. So this is a great spot here

1163
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:32,839
Speaker 1: for my Orca, who actually project his favorite. So give

1164
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:34,240
Speaker 1: me my Orka two to one on the island.

1165
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 3: If you roll all three of those teams in a parlay,

1166
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:42,279
Speaker 3: that's Mayorica, Torino and Newcastle thirty six to one. All right,

1167
00:53:42,480 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 3: let's move on to our favorite bets for the Premier

1168
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 3: League for this upcoming match week. A reminder that we

1169
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:50,799
Speaker 3: will be back on Monday for the midweek fixtures. I'll

1170
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:54,400
Speaker 3: starry Crystal Palace there plus two to ten. They're hosting Leicester.

1171
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 3: This one is really simple. All three of us agree,

1172
00:53:58,280 --> 00:54:01,080
Speaker 3: we agreed before the season, and we still Crystal Palace

1173
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,640
Speaker 3: is a better team than Leicester and nothing's changed that

1174
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 3: tone Palace's numbers are. They look bleak, but that's because

1175
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:10,800
Speaker 3: they've already played Arsenal, Liverpool City, Chelsea and Newcastle, so

1176
00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:12,800
Speaker 3: you can argue that their minus three point three expected

1177
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,680
Speaker 3: goal differential is actually impressive. Then you flip to the

1178
00:54:15,719 --> 00:54:18,600
Speaker 3: other side. You look at Leicester City's numbers. They're crumbling,

1179
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 3: terrible defensive side, terrible goalkeeper. They only have one wave

1180
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 3: scoring goals and that's drough James Madison, and he only

1181
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:26,880
Speaker 3: does it when the Darts are in town in Leicester.

1182
00:54:27,320 --> 00:54:30,359
Speaker 3: They're not this week. So Crystal Palace plus two ten

1183
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 3: is an easy one. That's my favorite bet for the

1184
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 3: week in the Premier League, Anthony, what about you.

1185
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 4: Leeds plus one at home against Arsenal.

1186
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:40,960
Speaker 2: It's a good bi low spot on the Peacocks, who

1187
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:43,520
Speaker 2: have not won any of their last five matches despite

1188
00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 2: having pretty average underline numbers. They're an average team in

1189
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:50,280
Speaker 2: the Premier League. Arsenal have been excellent, huge win against

1190
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 2: Liverpool on Sunday. They're playing in Norway on Thursday against

1191
00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:58,600
Speaker 2: Bodo Glimpt tough spot now going on the road for

1192
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:02,720
Speaker 2: Arsenal with another European match sitting in the following midweek.

1193
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,319
Speaker 4: They have not been nearly as good on the road

1194
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 4: as they've been at home.

1195
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:09,399
Speaker 2: They're plus one point seven expected goal difference per ninety

1196
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 2: at home, only plus point four on the road, so

1197
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:13,719
Speaker 2: they've been a worst team on the road.

1198
00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:14,759
Speaker 4: They're laying a full goal.

1199
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:17,839
Speaker 2: I make this closer to about three quarters two point

1200
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:19,839
Speaker 2: seven goals. So I'm going to take leads at home

1201
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:24,680
Speaker 2: and trust them. It's a tough matchup necessarily, don't love

1202
00:55:24,760 --> 00:55:25,520
Speaker 2: the matchup, but do.

1203
00:55:25,640 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 3: Love the number and the spot for leads, all right,

1204
00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 3: BJ take us home.

1205
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:32,040
Speaker 1: Newcastle plus half a goal at minus one fifteen on

1206
00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:34,800
Speaker 1: the road at Old Trafford. This Manchester United defense sucks.

1207
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:38,360
Speaker 1: They are in the bottom five in non penalty expected

1208
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:42,520
Speaker 1: goals allowed and shots allowed, in expected threat allowed and

1209
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:45,560
Speaker 1: field tilt. So you have a Newcastle offense coming in

1210
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:48,000
Speaker 1: that not only has been the best offense outside of

1211
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:49,760
Speaker 1: the Big Six, but honestly one of the best offenses

1212
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:52,440
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. Third in expected goals that are

1213
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:55,960
Speaker 1: averaging over fifteen shots per ninety over nineteen box centuries.

1214
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:58,759
Speaker 1: And on the reverse side of that, their defense has

1215
00:55:58,760 --> 00:56:01,239
Speaker 1: actually been very solid. They are only allowing one non

1216
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:04,360
Speaker 1: penalty expected goal per match. They've been pressing very effectively,

1217
00:56:04,480 --> 00:56:06,560
Speaker 1: have an eight point nine pass per defensive action and

1218
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:09,919
Speaker 1: have forced the most high turnovers in the Premier League.

1219
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 1: In fact, they forced ten high turnovers against Manchester City,

1220
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:15,760
Speaker 1: who's the best team at playing to pressure well. United

1221
00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:18,320
Speaker 1: is twelfth in offensive pass per defensive action, So I

1222
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:21,400
Speaker 1: think Newcastle has a great, great spot here on the

1223
00:56:21,480 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 1: road with United coming off of a Thursday Europa League match,

1224
00:56:24,680 --> 00:56:26,919
Speaker 1: probably gonna have to rotate some guys in that match.

1225
00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:30,280
Speaker 1: So Newcastle plus half a goal at minus one fifteen,

1226
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:32,480
Speaker 1: I think United is very overvalue here. I have this

1227
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:35,400
Speaker 1: match projected right at a pick them all right.

1228
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:38,360
Speaker 3: That wraps up this episode of Wonder Goal for BJ Cunningham,

1229
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 3: for Anthony the Bundo, Michael lileebuff reminding you we'll see

1230
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 3: you again on Monday, and best of luck with all

1231
00:56:44,680 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 3: your bets this weekend. The fools fan the Flamer still