WEBVTT - Nvidia Has Lots Riding on This Week Even as Earnings a Month Out 0:00:02.920 --> 0:00:10.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business 0:00:10.760 --> 0:00:13.960 Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you 0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:18.360 America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business finance and 0:00:18.440 --> 0:00:22.880 tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week podcast with Carol Messer 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:25.840 and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:29.960 Well, Yes, earnings this week are about several members of 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:33.600 the Magnificent seven group. We're talking about Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:37.680 and Meta Platforms, all laying out their businesses and outlooks. 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:39.760 In all, nearly forty two percent of the S and 0:00:39.800 --> 0:00:43.000 P five hundred's market cap reporting results. It will also 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:45.720 be a reveal of how well and Video is doing 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:48.840 and whether the AI trade and enthusiasm is for real 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:51.040 or perhaps Tim getting ahead of itself. 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:52.680 Well, with more on how in Vidia has so much 0:00:52.720 --> 0:00:55.000 riding on this week's earnings, Let's get to Bloomberg News 0:00:55.040 --> 0:00:57.560 Equities reporter Crimen Rynikey. She joins us here in our 0:00:57.560 --> 0:01:02.000 Bloomberg BusinessWeek Studios mentioned earlier. In Vidia doesn't report until 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:04.240 next month, but how do the results that we get 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:06.520 this week? Carmen give us an idea of how the 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:08.120 company is doing in its own sales. 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:11.280 Yeah, so basically, the four companies that you just mentioned 0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:13.960 that are reporting this week counted for forty percent of 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:17.400 n Video's sales in the second quarter. So what they 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:20.760 are going to report in terms of capital expenditures is 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:22.480 going to have huge read through for what we're going 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:26.280 to see for Nvidia in the coming quarters. These companies 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:29.800 are also expected to combine or to report a combined 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:32.200 fifty six billion in capital expenditure. 0:01:32.280 --> 0:01:34.399 It's crazy, right, Yeah, this is a record. 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:37.440 It's so much money, and really this is all going 0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:39.960 to AI spend, or mostly going to AI spend, which 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:42.640 is in turn mostly going to Nvidia chips because it's 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.400 really just by and far still the winner in that space. 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:48.240 I do wonder with the buy and spend when it 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:49.480 comes to Nvidia's. 0:01:49.080 --> 0:01:51.560 Chips, is there a cycle that we need to be 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:53.640 smart about saying, Okay, so maybe there's going to be 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:55.720 a lot of spending in a couple of quarters, and 0:01:55.760 --> 0:01:58.080 then maybe there's a bit of a pullback as they 0:01:58.120 --> 0:02:01.040 continue to build out and they go back and buy more. 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:03.800 Like we keep hearing about, you know, shortage of supplies 0:02:03.840 --> 0:02:05.760 like that feels like that's been such a big part 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:09.079 of the narrative around Nvidia's chips. But help me understand 0:02:09.120 --> 0:02:11.680 so that we when we get these results, you know, 0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:13.600 can be smart about whether or not it really is 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:14.480 bad for Nvidia. 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:16.960 Yeah, I mean, I think that's a great question. One 0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:18.960 thing that people are looking at is if there is 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.280 going to be a slowdown, is people sort of turn 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:23.720 over have to move to the next chip. That's why 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:26.320 we're so focused on anything that we can hear from 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:30.480 Nvidia or from clients about Blackwell. So far, the company 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:32.720 has said that everything is fine, it's on track to 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:35.920 a ramp in the second half of next year. But 0:02:35.960 --> 0:02:39.519 you're right, if these companies aren't spend aren't needing to 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:41.240 spend as much, if they're able to sort of keep 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:43.880 the chips that they have, that could mean, you know, 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:46.799 the sort of incredible revenue growth that we've seen from 0:02:46.880 --> 0:02:50.440 Nvidia could come in. Ultimately, it's going to come in 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:54.679 just because them, like the comps quarter over quarter over 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:58.240 quarter are going to get more difficult, right, But obviously 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:00.840 investors will just want to know that the still growth 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:01.400 going forward. 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:03.359 Maybe one of the reasons, Carol, we saw Jensen Wong 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:06.919 last week out in India making those big moves when 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:10.880 it comes to tying up with Reliance Industries, Tata and 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:12.040 the like. Yeah, kind of. 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:14.200 Really laying out the footprint, right to make sure that 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:18.280 kind of the dominance I guess continues right going forward. 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:20.320 Yeah, exactly, and making sure that they're not you know, 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:23.720 so reliant just on like Taiwan Semi or you know, 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:24.880 just that part of the world. 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:26.240 Okay, so oh go ahead, girl. 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:27.280 Well among those. 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:29.280 Max seven, is there one in particular that you think 0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:31.760 investors should be focusing on or is it equally kind 0:03:31.760 --> 0:03:32.280 of laid out? 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:34.520 You know, the thing is that the stories are so 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:36.920 different across all four of them that I do think 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:39.000 that it's important for investors to be looking at each 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:41.280 and every one. I mean just even the stock moves 0:03:41.280 --> 0:03:43.480 are so different. I'm looking at you know, Microsoft and 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:46.360 Meta for later in this week, and you know, Microsoft 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:47.360 shares of trailed the. 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:47.600 S and P. 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:50.120 But Meta is one of the best performers. So those 0:03:50.320 --> 0:03:52.640 companies are reporting on the same day. You have to 0:03:52.640 --> 0:03:55.640 look at both. You know, these are all such important companies, 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:57.920 as you were saying, I mean a huge part. 0:03:57.720 --> 0:03:58.280 Of the S ANDP. 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.320 Does it get to the point at some point soon, Carmen, 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:04.560 where you know, we don't necessarily need to see these 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:08.520 companies continue to spend because they have whatever chips they need. 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:11.240 I know that's not great for Invidia, but is there 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:14.520 a law of diminishing returns with this type of technology 0:04:14.720 --> 0:04:16.719 or is the idea that in video is going to 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:19.440 come out with something after the Blackwell that these companies 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:21.200 will then need to spend tens of billions of dollars 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:21.799 on also. 0:04:22.080 --> 0:04:24.000 I mean, I think that's like the million or billion 0:04:24.080 --> 0:04:27.760 or chillion dollar question, and is if Nvidia can continue 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:30.680 to innovate and spin it forward. And I think that's 0:04:30.720 --> 0:04:32.640 really what they're trying to do. That's what we're seeing 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:36.239 with Blackwell. I'm sure that there are plans even beyond 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:38.560 that to just you know, continue to build compute, to 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:42.280 continue to build speed and all of these things. But yeah, 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:45.320 that's why people are watching the capex on these companies 0:04:45.400 --> 0:04:47.720 so so closely, right as it matters. 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:49.880 And then videos had the first mover advantage that's stocked, 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:51.840 by the way, about one hundred and eighty five percent 0:04:51.920 --> 0:04:55.680 so far here four yep, just a shabby almost two 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:58.000 hundred percent. All right, Carmen, thank you so much. Bloomberg 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:01.000 News Equities reporter Carmen Reinicky joining us here in our 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:04.640 Bloomberg studio. That's one focus for investors this week, Tim, 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:05.680 we got to get to the other one. 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:08.640 Yeah, that's certainly US elections. Eight days until election day, 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:11.680 both candidates hitting the campaign trail over the weekend, tapping 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:15.400 big venues, in big celebrities, and making their final pitches 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:16.120 to voters. 0:05:18.520 --> 0:05:21.320 For the past nine years, we have been fighting against 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:24.000 the most sinister and corrupt forces on earth. 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:26.360 With your vote in this election, you. 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.720 Could show them once and for all that this nation 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:30.520 does not belong to them. 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:33.120 And I'm going to tell you as I travel around 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:37.480 our country, there is an overwhelming call for a fresh start, 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:45.760 for a new generation of leadership that is optimistic and 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:49.080 excited about what we can do together. 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:50.000 All right. 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:52.240 Of course, Donald Trump and Kamala Harrison the campaign trail, 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:54.920 both laying out their vision going forward. Safe to say 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:57.719 it's a campaign season that has seen both focusing on 0:05:57.760 --> 0:06:00.440 those key swing states and also venture shrink to his 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:02.880 states that are not and that they pretty much have 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:05.919 no chance of winning. For Donald Trump, that included a 0:06:05.960 --> 0:06:07.880 big rally in New York City yesterday. 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:10.200 All Right. For more, it takes us to a most 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:12.640 read story on the Bloomberg Today and why Trump's campaign 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:14.760 came to New York back with us as Bloomberg Opinion 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:17.640 Senior Executive Editor Tim O'Brien, he's here in our Bloomberg 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:20.440 BusinessWeek studio. Tim also the author of Trump Nation, The 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:23.320 Art of Being the Donald. Tim, you have a great 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:25.640 call him out today about why Trump came back to 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:27.680 New York City. I mean, this is a place that 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:30.680 he left a few years ago, but it was a 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:34.680 place that also built his fortune. Why did Trump come 0:06:34.720 --> 0:06:35.160 back here? 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:37.800 I don't think it was strategy, Tim, It makes no 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:40.760 sense to come to New York if you're at the 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:43.560 tail end of a race in which seven swing states, 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:45.680 New York not being one of them is going to 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:49.360 determine the outcome. I think he came for personal reasons. 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.880 You know, he is a New Yorker to his core, 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:54.960 and I think he's decamped to Palm Beach, but it'll 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:56.839 always be a New Yorker. He wants the city to 0:06:56.880 --> 0:06:59.920 love him. You know, he got tried in three different 0:06:59.880 --> 0:07:02.760 trials that ended up with very embarrassing judgments for him. 0:07:03.120 --> 0:07:05.599 That sort of seemed like the end of his run here. 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:08.200 But he clearly wasn't done with it. And I think 0:07:08.200 --> 0:07:11.080 he came back to Madison Square Garden in part to 0:07:11.240 --> 0:07:13.640 show that he was still around to New Yorkers, but 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:17.320 probably more importantly New York's and the media capital. 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:17.400 Of the world. 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:19.560 And I think he wanted a lot of eyeballs and 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:22.920 he wanted a lot of attention for what he had 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:25.440 to say on Sunday. I think what came out of 0:07:25.440 --> 0:07:28.160 that convenure or out of that rally is something we 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:31.640 should really reflect upon. But he did come I think 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:32.440 for the media. 0:07:32.160 --> 0:07:34.560 Scrutiny, I want to get into what we should be reflecting, 0:07:35.320 --> 0:07:37.120 But I want to go back to you have come 0:07:37.240 --> 0:07:39.640 into this studio and talked to us about Donald Trump 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:43.120 being a master of media, and he understands right the 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:47.400 optics of being at Medicine Square Garden and a huge 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:50.120 crowd around him and kind of laying it out there. 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:53.320 And you know, sort of repeating the role call of 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:55.760 speakers who were at the RNC in July. 0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:56.560 I was there. 0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:59.480 It was very similar to the RNC. Hulk Hogan showed 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:04.000 up again to shirt off. Trump gave a closing speech 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:07.280 that was somnan ambulent and rambling, and I don't know 0:08:07.320 --> 0:08:11.240 if it did anything for him again tactically or strategically, 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:13.560 but it allowed him to sort of indulge his own 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:14.600 need to be in the spotlight. 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:16.640 In terms of some of the folks that spoke at 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:22.320 yesterday's rally, it does seem like, obviously there were some 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:25.040 things that have gotten a lot of media attention, and 0:08:25.360 --> 0:08:29.120 most or many Americans would be are appalled by what 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:31.840 was said in a nation that is, you know, the 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:36.560 result of immigrants. Having said that, what's your understanding of 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:41.200 campaigns and how much the Trump team knew who was 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:43.200 going to be there, what they were going to say 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:45.440 in terms of what they said at the rally, well, 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:47.199 I mean, because they seemed to be backing off saying, oh, 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:48.040 you know a little bit. 0:08:48.240 --> 0:08:48.400 Yeah. 0:08:49.240 --> 0:08:53.640 The rally was a fountain of misogyny, racism, xenophobia, a 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:56.760 lot of talk about the other. I don't think it's 0:08:57.080 --> 0:09:01.000 it's partisan or ideological to make that observation. It's just 0:09:01.040 --> 0:09:04.559 about tolerance and core values. And there were heinous, ugly 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:09.240 things said on that stage. Whether or not Trump's political 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.640 team vetted the speakers who came out, I mean, there 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:17.800 were you know, sort of c list comedians and yeah, yeah, yeah, 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:21.520 and who who just you know, became sort of like 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:27.760 fraternity bros, screeching racist rants. If they didn't fet them, 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:31.559 they should have. If they did, then they shouldn't have 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:34.440 let them on the stage. They were on the stage 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:37.960 because they're they're articulating part of what Donald Trump's message is, 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:41.920 which is that he's threatened by the other. His campaign 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.480 is threatened by the other. They defind the other broadly, 0:09:44.720 --> 0:09:47.959 whether it's China, or people of color, or immigrants, or 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:50.760 Democrats or women on down the list. And there was 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:51.880 a lot of that last night. 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:55.040 Tony Hinchcliffe, the comedian that we're all talking about. His 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:57.800 joke that did not get that is getting a lot 0:09:57.800 --> 0:09:59.679 of attention today, is about comparing Puerto Rico to a 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:03.719 pile trash in the ocean. The Trump campaign did something rare, 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:06.360 and they actually came out and said that that wasn't 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:09.800 part of their view. It's not often that they'll rebuke 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:12.400 people who speak at their rallies to him. What was 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:15.080 notable to me, though, and it wasn't even a rebuke, 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:16.959 but was notable to me is that that was sort 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:19.160 of the only part that they distanced themselves from right. 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:22.120 I mean, there was there was you know, equally horrific 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:26.240 stuff said about Kamala Harris and her race and her 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:33.160 gender and her nationality. Also, you know, Hingecliff may have 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:34.960 been a comedian, but what he said wasn't a joke. 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:38.560 It was just it was a racist smear. And I 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:40.920 would argue that probably they thought it might be safe 0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:43.080 to put that in the mouth of a comedian, so 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:45.280 there was deniability. Oh can't you just take a joke? 0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:48.080 Who we gotten too politically correct that you just can't 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:51.840 see something funny about slagging an entire territory. 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:56.240 So fair to say that the Trump campaign accomplished what 0:10:56.280 --> 0:10:58.360 it set out to do yesterday, or is the fact 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:01.000 that we are focused on this and not his sit 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:05.360 down with Joe Rogan that aired on Saturday the focus 0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:06.559 of what we're talking about. 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:09.760 Well, you know, at one point during Trump's comments at 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:12.520 the garden, he said, you know, the Republican Party is 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:16.600 the party of inclusion, and I really like that while 0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:20.479 everything being set around him was as divisive as imaginable. 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:23.360 So if their goal was actually to embrace this idea 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:26.679 that the Republican Party could be a unifying force at 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:30.600 a moment where we have great political polarization. They failed utterly. 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:33.079 The other way to interpret that is they actually aren't 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:36.080 serious about any of that, and they're willing to indulge 0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:40.000 racism or extremism in the surface in the service of 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:42.360 trump Ism and Trump's on candidate. 0:11:42.360 --> 0:11:44.440 There's what Donald Trump said and the other said on stage, 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:48.120 but there's also all of the Americans and voting public 0:11:48.120 --> 0:11:51.560 that were around them that didn't necessarily Boo didn't necessarily 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:55.400 walk out. And I guess, like him or not, Donald Trump, 0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:59.920 I constantly think about half of America who are okay with. 0:11:59.880 --> 0:12:03.040 That is a great observation, you know, because it's a 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.960 little simplistic to simply point the finger Donald Trump. He 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:08.720 is an outcome as much as he's a cause of 0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:11.920 these things. And he represents something that's been in the 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:14.600 United States for a very long time. We fought a 0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:18.560 civil war here with slavery existed here on and on 0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:21.960 and on, And I think people have to decide what 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:24.400 they want to say their authentic values are, whether they're 0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:27.240 a Democrat or a Republican. When it comes to I 0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:30.920 think racism and sexism and this kind of vitriol, no 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:31.840 one should embrace it. 0:12:32.360 --> 0:12:35.200 You know, that vitriol from Donald Trump directly right, you 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:37.800 are the subject of a lawsuit from him, wrote a 0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:40.800 book on him. If there is a second term in 0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:42.360 the White House, what's your biggest fear? 0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:45.440 Well, I mean, I think Trump has told us what 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:46.160 that's going to be. 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:49.360 I think do you agree with those though tim that say, oh, 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:51.520 it's just show and he's not going to actually do 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:52.079 all that stuff. 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:53.640 Give me for interruption, No, No, that's fine. 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:55.240 I think he deeply wants to do these things. I 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:58.000 think he has authoritarian impulses. I think he wants to 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:00.920 weaponize the Justice Department against his enemies. He said he's 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:03.600 going to do that. I think he wants to silence 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:07.400 dissent within the country. He said he wants to do that. 0:13:07.679 --> 0:13:10.880 I think he wants ideological sniff tests at public schools. 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:14.960 He's a book banner. He is going to institutionalize things 0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:18.160 in this country that most Americans aren't used to being around. 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:19.600 And I think we have to really think about what 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:20.079 that means. 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:22.880 Why do you think we've seen such a silence, at 0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:26.720 least this time around, from corporate America, from large media organizations. 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:29.000 A couple in the news right now over the last week, 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:32.040 The Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times for coming 0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:33.880 out and saying we're not going to endorse anyone this 0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:35.720 time around. Why do you think we're seeing that silence 0:13:35.800 --> 0:13:36.199 right now? 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:39.680 Well, because you know, people become cowed by power. And 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:42.520 I think the anticipation in recent weeks is that Trump's 0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:46.000 polling numbers improved against Harris. If he becomes president again, 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.160 certainly businesses had reason to wonder whether or not he'll 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:52.000 weaponize the powers at his disposal of the federal government 0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:55.680 against them. The media is concerned about it. Everyone's concerned 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.280 about it because the presidency's a powerful office, and I 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:00.960 think people are hedging their bets. The issue is do 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.760 you had your bets at the expense of ethics and 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:07.280 decency and democracy and other values, or do you hedge 0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:10.239 them for just raw self interest and a lack of courage. 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:12.960 If Donald Trump, I always think about this, like if 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:15.280 he hadn't come to power, if he hadn't become president, 0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:17.880 would we still have this division. 0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:18.280 And this hate. 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:22.120 Well, so I think the division has always existed. I 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:24.960 think Trump just made it more comfortable people to express 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:27.640 it more openly. Social media gave it a place to 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:32.880 sort of proliferate in a way that prior media environments 0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:36.040 didn't and for people to sort of live in echo 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:38.720 chambers where they're not talking to their neighbors and getting 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:42.080 different points of view. And I think we have to 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:44.240 come to terms with it as a country. And if 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:46.320 there's a virtue to the rival of Donald Trump, is 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:49.240 the stripped this band aid off, these myths we tell 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:52.280 ourselves about the countries about and we should take that 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:54.520 on in a transparent and full blooded way. 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:57.720 Without asking you to give a prediction, what do the 0:14:57.760 --> 0:14:58.680 next eight days look like? 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:02.520 A prediction, my friend? 0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:04.640 It might be nine or ten or eleven days. 0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:06.080 I mean, i'd sound like a broken record. 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:08.520 It appears, based on the polling, to be a very 0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:11.480 close race. However, I think the polls in the last 0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:14.720 few cycles have then wildly off in terms of outcome 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:18.560 within their margins of error statistically, but not close in 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:21.960 terms of ultimate outcomes. And I think I think this 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:24.840 race could end up surprising people in terms of what 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:25.680 we see next week. 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:28.680 Does the early voting like so much? Early votings say 0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:29.440 something to you. 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:30.920 Well, I think you know. The positive thing on early 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:32.840 voting is the voters are engaging and you want that. 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:35.520 And it appears the voters from both parties are engaging, 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:37.640 and that's a good thing. People shouldn't sit on their 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:38.320 couches when they have. 0:15:38.360 --> 0:15:39.160 The ability to vote. 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:42.640 Agreed, Agreed, Thanks for engaging with us, always, always, Bloomberg 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:45.760 Opinion Senior Executive Editor Tim O'Brien Brian of course, joining 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:47.640 us in studio. You could read Tim's story more from 0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:50.040 Bloomberg Opinion. You could find it on the Bloomberg or 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:52.040 at bloomberg dot com slash Opinion. 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:57.120 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:15:57.160 --> 0:16:00.400 live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:02.600 on Apple car Play and then brout Otto with a 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:06.720 Bloomberg Business act or wants us live on YouTube. 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:09.640 Public health tape Your life Today, but you didn't even 0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:10.040 know it. 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:13.480 Viruses Pathogen's threatened to bring us to our knees. 0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:15.360 We need to tell the story of public health. 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:19.400 I'm really worried that any abundant you can just because 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:20.040 we have not yet. 0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:22.360 Pretty bad to kind of quality is our root cause 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:23.000 of film. 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:24.960 Said, trust level is broken. 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.120 If the politicization that's killing public health is like the 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:30.640 foundation of your house, and let me tell you ours 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:31.080 is crack. 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:32.120 All right. 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:34.520 That, of course is public health, and the story of 0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:36.880 public health is the subject of a new documentary. It 0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:40.160 is called The Invisible Shield. It's a four part series 0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:42.880 that reveals a little known truth. The series, by the way, 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:46.360 made possible by Bloomberg Philanthropies and Radical Media and airs 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:49.840 on Bloomberg TV tonight through Thursday at six pm Wall 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:50.440 Street Time. 0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.840 We got with us doctor Josh Scharfstein, weistein for Public 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:57.000 Health Practice and Community Engagement the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School 0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:59.240 of Public Health. He's in the series. He's also the 0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:02.160 author or the author of the Opioid Epidemic What Everyone 0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:05.320 Needs to Know. Doctor Scharsteina joins us from the American 0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:08.119 Public Health Conference in Minneapolis, where he and others are 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:11.400 holding a screening event a little later today with three 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:14.280 thousand public health professionals. Doctor Sharcin, nice to have you 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.639 back with us. You joined us regularly during the height 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:20.840 of the pandemic, and we certainly appreciated that. We appreciate this. 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:23.600 I want you to talk a little bit about The 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:27.160 Invisible Shield, because I think that was a really striking clip, 0:17:27.200 --> 0:17:31.720 because yes, each and every day we're essentially protected from 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:35.560 disease and from an early death by public health innovations 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:38.760 that have been made over the past few thousand years. 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:40.520 How should we be thinking about this in our day 0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:42.040 to day life. 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:45.399 You know, there's a saying that public health saved your 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:48.120 life today, but you didn't even know it. We go 0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:51.240 about our daily lives, were able to do all the 0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:53.399 things we want to do, in part because we're not 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:59.960 suffering horrible injuries or you know, tainted food poisoning, you know, 0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:05.360 choking on dirty air or contaminated water. But we sort 0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:07.919 of take those things in stride now because the public 0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:11.399 health system has been so successful, But we really can't 0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:15.480 take it for granted. And the message of this series 0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:18.800 is how much work has gone into building up this 0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:22.280 shield and how fragile it can be, and we need 0:18:22.320 --> 0:18:24.200 to now really pay attention to it. 0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:28.000 You know, I do think about when you talk about 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:29.960 public health. I think there are so many things that 0:18:30.000 --> 0:18:32.960 people just take for granted about what public health has done, 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:36.720 doctor Sharfstein. So what are those initiatives? What is it 0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:40.679 when we talk so much about public health? What are 0:18:40.760 --> 0:18:43.560 those things that we take for granted, and you know 0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:45.160 that are so important. 0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:49.520 It used to be that most families. If they didn't 0:18:49.560 --> 0:18:52.040 have a child die in the first couple of years 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:54.199 of life, they certainly had a relative who had a 0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:58.680 child die. It was a very very common occurrence. Children die. 0:18:58.760 --> 0:19:04.400 The pres of the United States had children die, and 0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:09.199 it was because of all kinds of preventable diseases, and 0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:13.200 those are gone, and you know, infant mortality is much 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:16.720 much more rare. It's just one window into the kinds 0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:20.080 of things that public health has done for us. And 0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:23.120 what we saw in the pandemic is that people can 0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:26.320 get very upset at public health and they can wonder 0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:28.959 why we even have a public health system. But that 0:19:29.080 --> 0:19:31.840 is a very dangerous way of thinking because of all 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:34.959 the things that public health does. You know, I'm sitting 0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:39.159 in this hotel room here in Minneapolis for this big conference, 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:41.320 and you know, I can just go to the top 0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:44.600 and get water. You know, I can walk outside without 0:19:44.840 --> 0:19:47.720 you know, trouble breathing the air, which isn't true in 0:19:47.800 --> 0:19:53.159 other countries necessarily. And there's so many things that we 0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:57.800 need public health to keep delivering. And with the nature 0:19:57.880 --> 0:19:59.879 of the challenges that we have today, the way that 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:03.840 viruses can traverse the world so quickly, all the other 0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:07.840 problems out there. We need public health to keep us safe, 0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:11.679 and that's a critically important message, and really appreciating the 0:20:11.840 --> 0:20:14.160 history makes that message even stronger. 0:20:14.240 --> 0:20:16.520 But it also comes at a time, doctor Sharfstein, where 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:20.720 trust in these so called institutions isn't necessarily high, or 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:23.360 it's deteriorating quite a bit over the last few years. 0:20:23.400 --> 0:20:25.880 We certainly saw that during the pandemic, and we see 0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:27.879 that with that the way that's playing out in the 0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:31.400 election right now, with who different candidates want to appoint 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:34.520 to certain positions, and the way that some of them 0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:39.080 are skeptics of institutions and also of vaccines, for example. 0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:41.520 How do you do that at a time where there 0:20:41.560 --> 0:20:44.760 is this skepticism, where is there is this mistrust of institutions. 0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:48.959 Well, that is what we'll be talking about today at 0:20:48.960 --> 0:20:51.320 the conference. It's something on a lot of people's minds 0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:56.719 in public health. One of the answers is to essentially 0:20:56.800 --> 0:21:01.280 go analog, to not just rely on on messages you're 0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:04.160 posting on the web or press releases you're putting out, 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:08.480 but to be meeting people in communities with people that 0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:14.560 they already trust. So it's their doctor, it's their faith leader, 0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:19.840 a local business really making sure that people are hearing 0:21:20.000 --> 0:21:24.520 messages not just online because online you're competing against just 0:21:24.720 --> 0:21:29.680 a flood of falsehoods on many of these issues like vaccines, 0:21:30.200 --> 0:21:33.600 but actually in the real world, people they trust, and 0:21:33.800 --> 0:21:38.159 the public health community has to really adapt to that reality, 0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:41.560 both in terms of the humility that we have and 0:21:41.600 --> 0:21:44.560 the transparency that we offer, but also in the kinds 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:48.800 of partnerships that we can develop so that people really 0:21:48.880 --> 0:21:52.600 understand they're getting good information from people who care about them. 0:21:52.640 --> 0:21:55.440 In public health, we care that you get to live 0:21:55.480 --> 0:21:58.159 the life you want to live, that you're healthy, to 0:21:58.280 --> 0:22:00.199 see your children grow up, and that you're children and 0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:04.040 can grow up. And having that message delivered not just 0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:06.840 by the person who's for the government. That is, you know, 0:22:06.840 --> 0:22:09.560 people are being told not to believe, but that message 0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:12.920 is also being delivered by people in your community. That's 0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:14.520 I think one of the solutions. 0:22:14.840 --> 0:22:16.800 You know, one thing I wanted to ask you, doctor Sharstein, 0:22:16.960 --> 0:22:18.679 is you know what is your biggest concern when it 0:22:18.680 --> 0:22:20.520 comes to the US election outcome and what it may 0:22:20.640 --> 0:22:23.879 mean for public health spending and work or attention and 0:22:23.920 --> 0:22:26.400 the impact that it could ultimately have on the US 0:22:26.520 --> 0:22:29.679 public Safe to say, there are many that already feel 0:22:29.720 --> 0:22:33.280 like the US system or the US government leaves them behind. 0:22:33.359 --> 0:22:36.040 So I'm just curious what could happen on this front. 0:22:37.280 --> 0:22:40.439 Well, you know, I can tell you, as someone on 0:22:40.520 --> 0:22:42.960 the advisory committee to the Director of the Centers for 0:22:43.040 --> 0:22:45.960 Disease Control and Prevention, that this challenge that we're talking 0:22:45.960 --> 0:22:49.560 about is very well understood right now, and that there 0:22:49.600 --> 0:22:52.159 are a lot of changes being put into place to 0:22:52.240 --> 0:22:55.640 try to address it, to try to build trust through partnerships, 0:22:55.640 --> 0:23:00.359 a good information and transparency. I'll be frank I'm little 0:23:00.400 --> 0:23:04.399 concerned about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Walking around and saying, 0:23:04.480 --> 0:23:05.879 you know, he's going to be in charge of all 0:23:05.880 --> 0:23:09.600 the public health agencies. This is someone who is just 0:23:09.680 --> 0:23:13.440 a bond of conspiracy theories and lies about public health 0:23:13.920 --> 0:23:18.320 and who I think could do grave damage to not 0:23:18.480 --> 0:23:21.400 just how people perceive public health, but the actual work 0:23:21.440 --> 0:23:24.359 of public health and the consequences of that are the 0:23:24.400 --> 0:23:28.359 consequences that Frankly, Robert F. Kennedy Junr. Has been involved 0:23:28.400 --> 0:23:32.200 in causing, which are massive outbreaks of preventable disease. And 0:23:32.760 --> 0:23:36.480 so I'm worried. I'm worried the outcome of the election 0:23:36.560 --> 0:23:37.920 and what could happen afterwards. 0:23:37.960 --> 0:23:42.480 I'm glad you brought up Robert F. Kennedy junior doctor Sharfstein. What, 0:23:42.600 --> 0:23:45.600 in your view could he do if he were put 0:23:45.600 --> 0:23:48.240 in a position of power over health and human services, 0:23:48.240 --> 0:23:50.680 for example, what could he do? What could he undo? 0:23:50.720 --> 0:23:52.360 And what could be the consequences of that? 0:23:53.840 --> 0:23:56.919 Well, you know, I think that it's good that we 0:23:57.000 --> 0:23:59.280 have different kinds of checks and balances. There's some really 0:23:59.320 --> 0:24:02.159 great people, many really great people who work in federal 0:24:02.200 --> 0:24:05.959 agencies who are obligated under the law to do the 0:24:06.080 --> 0:24:09.160 right thing, you know, for the public. But we certainly 0:24:09.200 --> 0:24:13.639 have heard claims that a new administration should revoke the 0:24:13.640 --> 0:24:17.840 approval of vaccines, revoke the approval of abortion medications, revoke 0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:24.960 the approval really without any meaningfully you know, persuasive scientific justification. 0:24:25.800 --> 0:24:28.200 And so, you know, we all take it for granted 0:24:28.200 --> 0:24:30.480 that we can send our kids to school and they're 0:24:30.560 --> 0:24:33.040 not going to get measles there. But if you revoke 0:24:33.160 --> 0:24:36.520 the approval of a vaccine, then you know that's going 0:24:36.600 --> 0:24:38.800 to happen. And when there are enough kids getting measles, 0:24:39.240 --> 0:24:42.359 kids start to die from measles, and it's like, you know, 0:24:42.440 --> 0:24:45.200 that's why we have a measles vaccine, so that there's 0:24:45.320 --> 0:24:49.360 a lot of potential risks. I can't handicap how likely 0:24:49.400 --> 0:24:51.439 they'd be, but I can tell you that it is 0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:55.440 very concerning to have someone who has been so hostile 0:24:55.560 --> 0:25:00.240 and so conversant with falsehoods saying that you know he's 0:25:00.280 --> 0:25:02.639 going to be bossing people around at agencies that we 0:25:02.920 --> 0:25:04.760 all rely on to protect our health. 0:25:05.000 --> 0:25:07.080 All right, going to leave it on that note, Doctor Scharstein, 0:25:07.160 --> 0:25:09.400 as always, thank you so much. Feistein for Public Health 0:25:09.440 --> 0:25:12.680 Practice and Community Engagement at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School 0:25:12.720 --> 0:25:16.520 of Public Health. Also talking to us about the new 0:25:16.600 --> 0:25:20.719 documentary series The Invisible Shield, made possible by Bloomberg Philanthropies 0:25:20.720 --> 0:25:23.560 and Radical Media the Bloomberg School of Public Health, by 0:25:23.560 --> 0:25:25.560 the way, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, the founder of 0:25:25.600 --> 0:25:29.160 Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. The series airing on Bloomberg 0:25:29.200 --> 0:25:32.440 TV tonight through Thursday at six pm Wall Street Time. 0:25:32.800 --> 0:25:34.800 All right, folks, Now, let's get to a region of 0:25:34.840 --> 0:25:37.520 the world that we are seeing increasingly catch the attention 0:25:37.680 --> 0:25:39.119 of investors. 0:25:38.600 --> 0:25:41.640 And that is India. JP Morgan, CEO Jamie Diamond says 0:25:41.640 --> 0:25:44.679 there's a substantial opportunity for India as companies look to 0:25:44.720 --> 0:25:47.480 diversify their supply chains away from China. That's according to 0:25:47.520 --> 0:25:50.960 an interview with US CNBC TV eighteen. He did caution, though, 0:25:51.000 --> 0:25:53.280 that the transition will take years as firms navigate the 0:25:53.320 --> 0:25:57.480 complexities of relocating operations. Increasingly, Carol, we see a growing 0:25:57.560 --> 0:26:00.560 number of stories about companies expanding their presence in India 0:26:00.880 --> 0:26:02.880 and investors certainly making that's there. 0:26:02.960 --> 0:26:04.560 Yeah, I printed out a bunch of them with a 0:26:04.640 --> 0:26:06.560 view on the Indian economy. We are delighted to have 0:26:06.640 --> 0:26:09.119 with us the chairman of the Same Peak of India CSSET, 0:26:09.520 --> 0:26:11.840 which is the largest public sector bank and the biggest 0:26:11.880 --> 0:26:14.480 lender in India. He joins us here in studio, chair 0:26:14.560 --> 0:26:16.960 CETI so nice to have you here on Bloomberg Television 0:26:17.560 --> 0:26:18.159 and Radio. 0:26:18.359 --> 0:26:19.240 You were in DC. 0:26:19.440 --> 0:26:21.840 Let's start there for the IMF meetings. What if the 0:26:21.920 --> 0:26:25.880 meetings gave you optimism for India and the world more broadly, 0:26:26.160 --> 0:26:26.879 and what did not? 0:26:27.400 --> 0:26:30.840 Yeah, thanks for having me on the show. I think 0:26:30.880 --> 0:26:34.280 the positive news which are mudged and the IMF meetings 0:26:34.400 --> 0:26:37.159 is that the global inflation is coming down. Say it's 0:26:37.200 --> 0:26:41.520 a good news, while the growth rate seems to be 0:26:41.720 --> 0:26:44.280 moderate still in the range of three to three point 0:26:44.320 --> 0:26:50.080 five percent. The bright spark, obviously is India, which is 0:26:50.119 --> 0:26:53.240 expected to grow out around seven percent to seven point 0:26:53.240 --> 0:26:56.479 two percent. Even the IMF places the growth rate out 0:26:56.520 --> 0:27:01.399 of seven percent, the Central Bank of India believes that 0:27:01.480 --> 0:27:04.320 the growth rate could be seven point two percent. I 0:27:04.359 --> 0:27:08.480 think it's a it's a really interesting story which is 0:27:08.560 --> 0:27:13.440 unfolding in India, both in terms of growth trajectory which 0:27:13.440 --> 0:27:17.119 the country is taking on, and the equity market is 0:27:17.160 --> 0:27:21.560 doing well and the inflation is also moderating there, while 0:27:21.560 --> 0:27:24.920 the food inflation is still a matter of concern. 0:27:24.640 --> 0:27:27.320 There in India. So let's talk about some different sectors 0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:29.400 of the economy. You heard me mention the comments by 0:27:29.640 --> 0:27:32.919 Jamie Diamond over at JP Morgan Chase about supply chains 0:27:33.080 --> 0:27:37.360 transitioning to India on the ground, what can you tell 0:27:37.440 --> 0:27:40.280 us about that actually happening in India right now? 0:27:40.840 --> 0:27:45.080 Yeah, I think there's a most visible success stories of course, 0:27:45.119 --> 0:27:50.439 Apple twenty five percent of Apple sixteen is produced in India. 0:27:52.000 --> 0:27:55.320 A couple of things which are very seriously being pursued 0:27:55.320 --> 0:27:59.320 by the Government of India is a performance linked incentive 0:28:00.040 --> 0:28:04.160 for various industries. More than sixteen to twenty industries, particularly 0:28:04.240 --> 0:28:09.600 in the areas of electronics and you know semiconductors. So 0:28:09.640 --> 0:28:13.080 these are the sectors which are getting the performance linked 0:28:13.119 --> 0:28:15.880 incentive from the Government of India, and there's a good 0:28:15.880 --> 0:28:20.440 amount of foreign capital which is coming into these sectors. 0:28:20.960 --> 0:28:22.840 What yeah, and what in particular tell us a little 0:28:22.840 --> 0:28:25.159 bit about that. I think I'm not kidding when we 0:28:25.240 --> 0:28:28.119 say the ton of stories. I have a pile stock 0:28:28.560 --> 0:28:32.760 stories India clipsing China and MSCI Global stock ages to 0:28:32.880 --> 0:28:33.479 dry flows. 0:28:33.520 --> 0:28:35.200 That was back in mid September. 0:28:35.320 --> 0:28:39.200 Blackstone sees Asia as growth engine, has scale in India. 0:28:39.320 --> 0:28:40.880 Juans and Wong was there last week. 0:28:40.800 --> 0:28:44.000 Brookfield to add to its thirteen billion dollar bet on 0:28:44.080 --> 0:28:45.200 India's projects. 0:28:46.000 --> 0:28:48.080 So there's so much going on. You point that out. 0:28:48.440 --> 0:28:51.920 We're in particular give us some insight for our Bloomberg audience, 0:28:51.960 --> 0:28:54.720 who's a global audience, but where the money has picked 0:28:54.760 --> 0:28:55.840 up dramatically. 0:28:56.320 --> 0:29:00.000 So the money is mainly coming in the couple of sectors, 0:29:00.240 --> 0:29:04.040 particularly in the renewables. I think there's a huge amount 0:29:04.120 --> 0:29:08.360 of focus with the commitment what India has given under 0:29:08.400 --> 0:29:13.640 the twenty six that you know by twenty thirty, the 0:29:14.000 --> 0:29:17.480 addition in the renewbr entergy would be almost five hundred gigabytes. 0:29:18.240 --> 0:29:22.080 That is attracting a lot of attention. And the largest 0:29:22.080 --> 0:29:27.520 sticks is another area the warehousing, roads, sports. These are 0:29:27.520 --> 0:29:31.680 all the areas which are attracting the global investment, you know, 0:29:31.760 --> 0:29:32.480 in a big banner. 0:29:32.840 --> 0:29:33.000 You know. 0:29:33.040 --> 0:29:37.040 I was in India now like ten, ten, twelve years 0:29:37.080 --> 0:29:39.360 ago and one of the things that I found so dramatic, 0:29:39.400 --> 0:29:41.920 and it was a trip that I took it like 0:29:41.960 --> 0:29:43.320 two in the morning with my team. 0:29:43.960 --> 0:29:46.720 We were going to Agara to see the taj Mahal. 0:29:47.080 --> 0:29:49.520 But what was fascinating is that's when you saw everything 0:29:49.560 --> 0:29:52.560 moving around, because that's when the roads were less busy 0:29:53.000 --> 0:29:56.160 and just so much infrastructure moving around. What can you 0:29:56.200 --> 0:29:58.880 tell us too about the infrastructure build out that many 0:29:58.960 --> 0:30:01.920 have deemed so necess sorry to take India to the 0:30:01.920 --> 0:30:02.520 next level. 0:30:02.880 --> 0:30:06.720 Absolutely, I think one of the most important requirements for 0:30:06.800 --> 0:30:11.040 Indian economy to continue to grow is strengthening the infrastructure. 0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:13.920 And there are two things which are happening. I think 0:30:13.960 --> 0:30:18.680 there's a significant government expenditure capital expenditure which is focused 0:30:18.760 --> 0:30:22.840 on the infrastructure building up, and there's a private investment 0:30:22.920 --> 0:30:24.960 also is coming in in a big manner in terms 0:30:25.000 --> 0:30:28.400 of infrastructure. We see a lot of airports being built, 0:30:28.720 --> 0:30:33.240 seaports being strengthened, and road network of course is one 0:30:33.280 --> 0:30:36.640 of the best now in India, and we have dedicated 0:30:36.760 --> 0:30:41.040 freight corridors which are coming in, you know, to enhance 0:30:41.120 --> 0:30:43.960 the speed of moving ruths from one place to another. 0:30:44.960 --> 0:30:46.760 So I think, yeah, I was just going to say 0:30:46.760 --> 0:30:47.920 we only have a few units left, but I want 0:30:47.920 --> 0:30:49.320 to move from the macro to the micro and talk 0:30:49.320 --> 0:30:52.760 a little about your plans over at SBI and where 0:30:52.800 --> 0:30:57.800 you're thinking about expansion in terms of parts that you're 0:30:57.800 --> 0:31:01.720 focused on growing, goals for growth over the next six 0:31:01.760 --> 0:31:02.600 months two years. 0:31:03.720 --> 0:31:06.680 So as you know, I think in terms of the reach, 0:31:07.320 --> 0:31:10.080 we have one of the best reaches. We have the 0:31:10.160 --> 0:31:13.880 largest network of branches, largest network of ATMs, We have 0:31:14.000 --> 0:31:18.160 served almost five hundred million customers, and every Indian family 0:31:18.200 --> 0:31:21.720 in some way you know, is engaged with SBI. We 0:31:21.840 --> 0:31:26.280 have significantly invested in the technology and digitalization in the 0:31:26.360 --> 0:31:29.360 last two three years and we would like to leverage 0:31:29.360 --> 0:31:35.560 that technology and digitalization to reach the underserved unserved across 0:31:35.600 --> 0:31:39.520 the country. Still, I think, you know, there are a 0:31:39.520 --> 0:31:43.640 lot of banking needs which are unmet in India. Which 0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:48.320 we want to reach them, and this investment in technology 0:31:48.320 --> 0:31:51.880 and digitalization has helped us to reach the bottom of 0:31:51.920 --> 0:31:55.240 the pyramid in a much lower cost, which means that 0:31:55.320 --> 0:31:58.240 you know, the investment in technology helped us to increase 0:31:58.240 --> 0:32:02.080 over operational efficiency. My focus in the next six months 0:32:02.080 --> 0:32:04.760 would be that how do I leverage the investments of 0:32:04.760 --> 0:32:08.080 what we met in technology to increase the operational efficiency 0:32:08.120 --> 0:32:09.680 and productivity for employees. 0:32:09.800 --> 0:32:12.040 I am curious too that you know, we've noticed too 0:32:12.080 --> 0:32:15.240 that deposits have been challenging for a lot of really 0:32:15.320 --> 0:32:18.120 all Indian lenders for the past few quarters. So your 0:32:18.160 --> 0:32:21.480 strategies that have worked and what else do you plan 0:32:21.560 --> 0:32:25.880 to do what's really worked in terms of building out deposits. 0:32:26.080 --> 0:32:29.680 Yeah. One thing of course is you know, in India, 0:32:29.720 --> 0:32:33.440 despite so much digitalization, Yeah, the physical presency is very 0:32:33.520 --> 0:32:37.320 much important in terms of deposit mobilization. And we have 0:32:37.400 --> 0:32:41.040 the largest physical presence there number two we have. 0:32:41.200 --> 0:32:42.880 Does that mean you continue to build out the physical 0:32:42.880 --> 0:32:43.520 presence we do. 0:32:43.600 --> 0:32:46.680 We want to enter into areas where we know we 0:32:46.720 --> 0:32:48.720 don't have a branch, we would like to set up 0:32:48.760 --> 0:32:53.240 that physical branch. And we have a very strong mobile application, 0:32:53.360 --> 0:32:56.520 which is you know, currently you will be surprised that 0:32:56.680 --> 0:33:00.360 every day we opened fifty to sixty thousand says bank 0:33:00.360 --> 0:33:03.920 account to d WOW. So we have twenty seven percent 0:33:03.920 --> 0:33:06.680 market share in Savings Bank, which is the low cost deposits. 0:33:06.960 --> 0:33:08.520 So our focus would be, you know how to be 0:33:08.600 --> 0:33:11.920 strength in this franchise and start mobilizing more and more 0:33:12.280 --> 0:33:13.800 low cost deposits. 0:33:13.280 --> 0:33:16.120 And increasingly just got about fifteen seconds. Are they wealthier 0:33:16.200 --> 0:33:18.160 deposits too? That you're noticing a lot of wealth. 0:33:18.040 --> 0:33:19.800 Creation we're seeing in Indias And we. 0:33:19.800 --> 0:33:22.720 Have largest number of clients who qualify to be wealth 0:33:22.760 --> 0:33:26.160 management customers and we are investing in a wealth management 0:33:26.200 --> 0:33:28.000 technology to reach out to them. 0:33:28.120 --> 0:33:29.680 AI AI too, just correct. 0:33:29.760 --> 0:33:31.960 Yeah, of course there's a large scale adoption of THEI. 0:33:33.280 --> 0:33:35.680 You can't speak about banking without talking about THEI. 0:33:36.120 --> 0:33:38.640 You can't speak about anything it assumes without talking about AI. 0:33:39.480 --> 0:33:41.920 Cher Seti, thank you so much. We really appreciate it. 0:33:41.960 --> 0:33:45.160 C Us Seti, Chairman of the State Bank of India, Frances. 0:33:45.760 --> 0:33:49.600 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live 0:33:49.720 --> 0:33:52.320 each weekday is starting at two pm Eastern on Apple 0:33:52.400 --> 0:33:55.160 car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business and 0:33:55.520 --> 0:33:58.400 you can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 0:33:58.400 --> 0:34:02.760 flagship New York station Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:34:03.560 --> 0:34:06.720 Republican Vice president for candidate and Ohio Senator Jadie Vance 0:34:06.840 --> 0:34:09.600 said Donald Trump would keep the US in NATO if 0:34:09.640 --> 0:34:12.279 re elected, though it's important to note that the Transatlantic 0:34:12.320 --> 0:34:15.719 Alliance isn't quote, just a welfare client. Van spoke on 0:34:15.800 --> 0:34:17.840 NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday. 0:34:18.280 --> 0:34:21.400 I think it's important, Kristen that we recognize that NATO 0:34:21.560 --> 0:34:24.720 is not just a welfare client. Donald Trump wants NATO 0:34:24.760 --> 0:34:26.959 to be strong. He wants US to remain in NATO, 0:34:27.080 --> 0:34:30.319 but he also wants NATO countries to actually carry their 0:34:30.320 --> 0:34:31.120 share of the defense. 0:34:31.160 --> 0:34:31.520 Bird. 0:34:32.600 --> 0:34:35.480 That was Republican Vice presidential candidate and Ohio Senator Jadie 0:34:35.520 --> 0:34:38.040 Vance on Meet the Press on Sunday. No question. Doctor 0:34:38.080 --> 0:34:41.160 Angela Stent is watching this closely. She's Senior Fellow at 0:34:41.200 --> 0:34:43.480 the Brooksings Institution and a member of the Council on 0:34:43.520 --> 0:34:46.800 Foreign Relations. She's a former National intelligence officer for Russia 0:34:46.840 --> 0:34:50.200 and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. Earlier, she was 0:34:50.200 --> 0:34:52.279 in policy planning at the US Department of State. She's 0:34:52.320 --> 0:34:55.440 also a professor Emerita of Government and Foreign Service at 0:34:55.480 --> 0:34:59.040 Georgetown University. She's also the author of Putin's World, Russia 0:34:59.080 --> 0:35:01.799 Against the West and with the Rest. She joins us 0:35:01.880 --> 0:35:02.799 from London. 0:35:02.520 --> 0:35:05.080 Doctor stan Angela, so great to have you back with us. 0:35:06.000 --> 0:35:08.560 What do you think depending on the outcome of the 0:35:08.640 --> 0:35:11.560 US election, if it is Donald Trump for second term, 0:35:11.600 --> 0:35:15.720 what will be likely the relationship between US and NATO. 0:35:17.239 --> 0:35:22.239 Well, President Trump and of course price presidential candidate Jati E. 0:35:22.320 --> 0:35:25.400 Vance have both been very critical of NATO, but particularly 0:35:25.440 --> 0:35:29.120 former President Trump, you know, saying that these countries don't 0:35:29.160 --> 0:35:32.680 carry the full share of the defense burden, as if 0:35:32.680 --> 0:35:36.040 this is totally a one way relationship and that NATO 0:35:36.120 --> 0:35:39.240 is some kind of protection racket. You know, our allies 0:35:39.280 --> 0:35:41.920 do things for us too. But I do think what 0:35:41.920 --> 0:35:45.600 will happen is countries will be under pressure to spend 0:35:45.600 --> 0:35:48.600 more on defense, and not all NATO members even spend 0:35:48.800 --> 0:35:52.000 the required two percent on defense. Some like Poland spend 0:35:52.120 --> 0:35:55.080 much more. And I think what Presidents Trump has also 0:35:55.160 --> 0:35:58.320 said is that maybe the US wouldn't agree to defend 0:35:58.360 --> 0:36:01.319 countries who don't spend enough on defense. So there'll be 0:36:01.360 --> 0:36:04.440 a lot of uncertainty. You know, the last time around. Apparently, 0:36:04.480 --> 0:36:07.520 former President Trump wanted to pull the US out of NATO. 0:36:07.560 --> 0:36:10.759 There's now legislation saying that he can't do that. It'll 0:36:10.800 --> 0:36:13.799 be a much rockier relationship with NATO, But NATO wanted 0:36:13.840 --> 0:36:16.359 the stands that and the other NATO countries have been 0:36:16.440 --> 0:36:20.960 taking measures to try and insulate themselves against some big. 0:36:20.719 --> 0:36:25.480 Break right, and also NATO certainly watching closely as this 0:36:25.520 --> 0:36:29.360 war continues to rage on what are we getting to 0:36:29.400 --> 0:36:34.120 our third winter here between Russia and Ukraine. Having said that, 0:36:34.520 --> 0:36:37.600 later on the recent news that Russia made a decision 0:36:37.640 --> 0:36:42.560 to bring North Korean troops to Shorebitz war weary forces, 0:36:42.680 --> 0:36:45.920 what does that say to you? We constantly talk about 0:36:45.920 --> 0:36:50.000 interesting geopolitical alliances in today's environment, but that move in 0:36:50.040 --> 0:36:52.600 particular says what you're the expert here. 0:36:53.719 --> 0:36:56.279 Well, first of all, it says that the Russians, you know, 0:36:56.320 --> 0:36:59.719 they're having a mobilization problem, so are the Ukrainians, but 0:36:59.760 --> 0:37:03.080 Therussians feel that they need more troops. The Ukrainians did 0:37:03.120 --> 0:37:06.080 invade the Korsk region of Russia. They've taken some of 0:37:06.080 --> 0:37:09.640 the territory. Russia has been pushing them back. But apparently 0:37:09.680 --> 0:37:12.200 what these ten thousand troops if we're to believe the 0:37:12.200 --> 0:37:15.239 Pentagon will do North Korean troops is actually go to 0:37:15.320 --> 0:37:18.480 the Korsk region and fight to try and take back 0:37:18.520 --> 0:37:21.759 all of this territory from Ukraine. And in fact, the 0:37:21.880 --> 0:37:25.560 Ukrainian Army is now published given its soldiers a phrase 0:37:25.600 --> 0:37:32.279 book of Ukrainian North Korean Korean phrases in the hope 0:37:32.320 --> 0:37:34.960 that maybe some of these North Korean troops will not 0:37:35.080 --> 0:37:38.800 continue fighting. So I think it's quite serious, it really, 0:37:38.880 --> 0:37:40.600 you know, this is the first time you have these 0:37:40.600 --> 0:37:46.080 foreign troops fighting on Russian soil, and I think that 0:37:46.840 --> 0:37:50.520 it could lead to greater instability. I mean, depending on 0:37:50.600 --> 0:37:53.279 what happens, it could also be quite detrimental to the 0:37:53.400 --> 0:37:56.720 Ukrainians if these North Korean soldiers are able to push 0:37:56.760 --> 0:37:59.719 them back further from the Krosk region, because this was 0:37:59.760 --> 0:38:02.640 an element that the Ukrainians hope would be a bargaining 0:38:02.719 --> 0:38:06.040 leaverage for them if and when there are negotiations with Russia. 0:38:06.160 --> 0:38:08.040 I want to point out South Korea is considering whether 0:38:08.080 --> 0:38:11.479 to send weapons directly to Ukraine, reversing a policy banning 0:38:11.560 --> 0:38:13.480 lethal aid to the country. It was according to a 0:38:13.520 --> 0:38:17.160 senior South Korean official. Soul has previously backfilled the US 0:38:17.200 --> 0:38:20.400 for shipments that has made and our reporting noting that 0:38:20.440 --> 0:38:22.960 if some of Seoul's vast stores of artillery shells started 0:38:22.960 --> 0:38:26.960 heading directly to Kiev alongside pyongyang supplies to Russia, that 0:38:26.960 --> 0:38:29.680 would result in the war drawing upon two of the 0:38:29.680 --> 0:38:32.520 world's largest artillery forces. To me, that would say a 0:38:32.520 --> 0:38:35.319 broadening out. Is that a fair assessment, Angela, and makes 0:38:35.320 --> 0:38:36.839 me wonder what, Yes, I think so, And I. 0:38:36.800 --> 0:38:39.799 Think yeah, And I think that we also understand that 0:38:39.880 --> 0:38:41.800 the South Koreans are not going to give much more 0:38:41.920 --> 0:38:47.239 intelligence help to the Ukrainians in their fight with Russia, 0:38:47.280 --> 0:38:49.239 but it does I think it could broaden it out. 0:38:49.280 --> 0:38:51.400 And I think I'm not sure that the Chinese are 0:38:51.480 --> 0:38:54.800 very happy about this. But you know, Putin has justified 0:38:54.800 --> 0:38:58.239 this by saying, we have a strategic partnership relationship with 0:38:58.360 --> 0:39:01.480 North Korea and we've been attacked our territory, therefore they 0:39:01.480 --> 0:39:04.680 can help us. And this really raises the prestige of 0:39:04.719 --> 0:39:07.200 North Korea. You know, our country where many of these 0:39:07.239 --> 0:39:10.960 soldiers are very short because they're malnourished, a country that 0:39:11.000 --> 0:39:13.600 can't feed its own people, and yet you know, has 0:39:13.680 --> 0:39:16.200 nuclear weapons and is now fighting in Russia. 0:39:16.920 --> 0:39:20.400 We're in a very interesting moment where we have the 0:39:20.440 --> 0:39:24.680 world's wealthiest person, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, has 0:39:24.719 --> 0:39:28.160 been in contact with Vladimir Putin. I'm talking about that 0:39:28.239 --> 0:39:32.239 bombshell report last week from the Wall Street Journal that 0:39:32.719 --> 0:39:35.840 reported that Elon Musk have been in regular contact with 0:39:35.880 --> 0:39:39.160 the Russian president since late twenty twenty two. The discussions, 0:39:39.160 --> 0:39:41.759 according to the journal, were confirmed by several current and 0:39:41.840 --> 0:39:46.239 former US, European and Russian officials. A reminder that he 0:39:46.360 --> 0:39:48.880 has security clearance due to a lot of the government 0:39:48.880 --> 0:39:52.880 work that SpaceX does. Doctor stent to what extent should 0:39:52.880 --> 0:39:56.680 we be concerned about Elon's conversations with Putin? 0:39:57.719 --> 0:39:59.640 Well, I think we should be very concerned, you know, 0:40:00.000 --> 0:40:03.640 wonder what the motivation behind this is. Putin has said, well, 0:40:03.680 --> 0:40:06.200 we just talked once and it was about space. But 0:40:06.280 --> 0:40:10.000 even if they're talking about space exploration, as you yourself said, 0:40:10.480 --> 0:40:13.640 mister Musk has high security clearances, he knows a lot. 0:40:13.880 --> 0:40:16.640 What's he telling the Russians? Apparently he wants to make 0:40:16.680 --> 0:40:20.120 sure that, you know, Starling will be able to use 0:40:20.160 --> 0:40:26.400 whatever terrestrial stations it needs to continue operating, and that Russia, 0:40:26.440 --> 0:40:28.640 you know, could be an important part of it is 0:40:28.680 --> 0:40:31.680 the largest country in the world, but it raises very 0:40:31.719 --> 0:40:35.560 serious questions. And then of course you have Elon Musk's 0:40:35.600 --> 0:40:39.840 support of former President Trump. You know, he's paying people 0:40:40.320 --> 0:40:43.279 to register to vote, and of course you have the 0:40:43.320 --> 0:40:47.080 reports of former President Trump's conversations with Putin that have 0:40:47.160 --> 0:40:50.399 happened since he was president, and you just wonder where 0:40:50.440 --> 0:40:53.440 all this is leading. You know, Musk is a very 0:40:53.440 --> 0:40:57.520 wealthy man. Putin is reportedly also a very wealthy man. 0:40:57.640 --> 0:40:59.480 So I don't know if this is part of the 0:40:59.480 --> 0:41:03.359 club of billionaires, but there should be security concerns here. 0:41:03.600 --> 0:41:04.480 You know. It's interesting. 0:41:06.520 --> 0:41:08.439 We use interesting a lot this year, or the last 0:41:08.480 --> 0:41:11.560 couple of years, or the last decade. But what I'm 0:41:11.600 --> 0:41:14.839 thinking about is we kid but not kid about these romances, 0:41:14.960 --> 0:41:18.000 whether it's Donald Trump and Elon Musk or whether it's 0:41:18.320 --> 0:41:21.839 Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. You've studied Putin. I think 0:41:21.840 --> 0:41:26.160 we've talked about this before. Is there a real relationship there? 0:41:26.320 --> 0:41:29.680 Or I think we've talked about Putin in the past 0:41:29.960 --> 0:41:33.640 and kind of playing with Trump or playing Trump specifically, 0:41:33.680 --> 0:41:36.759 But help me understand this relationship between the two or 0:41:36.760 --> 0:41:37.279 what it is. 0:41:38.680 --> 0:41:41.200 So I would think from former President Trump's point of view, 0:41:41.360 --> 0:41:44.239 he admires strong men, and we certainly know that he 0:41:44.560 --> 0:41:48.640 admires Vladimir Putin. Ladima Putin is a former KGB agent 0:41:49.120 --> 0:41:51.880 who used to be a case officer, and he understands 0:41:51.880 --> 0:41:54.560 how to manipulate people, and from some of the reports 0:41:54.600 --> 0:41:57.520 we've seen, he knows how to flatter people. He said 0:41:57.600 --> 0:42:01.640 very flattering things about former President Trump. Former President Trump 0:42:01.760 --> 0:42:05.760 really likes that it does Putin view Trump as someone 0:42:05.760 --> 0:42:08.640 who's a friend. I doubt it. I think this is 0:42:08.719 --> 0:42:12.239 all instrumental for him, but it's very useful for him. 0:42:12.239 --> 0:42:15.080 He would like to have a Trump victory in November 0:42:15.480 --> 0:42:18.080 because he then will see a more chaotic America. So 0:42:18.120 --> 0:42:21.520 I think there's a very different, great difference between the 0:42:21.560 --> 0:42:24.480 way that these two men view each other and what 0:42:24.520 --> 0:42:27.200 they view as the point of their relationship. 0:42:27.360 --> 0:42:30.880 Why, in your view, we're not hearing more from members 0:42:30.920 --> 0:42:35.000 of Congress who might understand that it's an issue the 0:42:35.080 --> 0:42:38.520 relationship here, but aren't coming out and saying that, hey, 0:42:38.560 --> 0:42:40.520 this is the type of thing that, at least in 0:42:40.520 --> 0:42:42.520 your view, doctor stun is dangerous. 0:42:43.360 --> 0:42:46.280 Well, I think we're probably hearing from Democratic members of Congress. 0:42:46.920 --> 0:42:51.360 They're speaking up. But as you know, people who elected 0:42:51.400 --> 0:42:56.560 officials in the Republican Party aren't really saying anything because 0:42:56.600 --> 0:43:00.279 no one wants to criticize what's happening there. Oh, I 0:43:00.320 --> 0:43:02.759 think that's probably, but it's not as if no one's 0:43:02.800 --> 0:43:03.719 talking about. 0:43:03.440 --> 0:43:06.640 This all right, So how are you thinking about? Man? 0:43:06.800 --> 0:43:09.440 How many times have we had this conversation, you know, 0:43:10.120 --> 0:43:12.520 when we might see an end to this war? But 0:43:12.640 --> 0:43:16.080 here we are, you know, getting ready, as I said, 0:43:16.080 --> 0:43:19.760 the third winter, and it's just pretty remarkable. Ukrainian President 0:43:20.000 --> 0:43:22.680 Zelenski saying today he had arrived in Iceland to talk 0:43:22.680 --> 0:43:25.600 about the Russian invasion, with leaders of several Nordic countries 0:43:26.840 --> 0:43:27.319 wanting to. 0:43:27.280 --> 0:43:28.800 Talk and rally allies around. 0:43:28.800 --> 0:43:33.000 His victory plan is a victory anytime soon in your view? 0:43:33.480 --> 0:43:35.640 And what gets us there and what won't get us there? 0:43:36.360 --> 0:43:39.560 Yeah. So I was at a meeting last month in Ukraine, 0:43:39.640 --> 0:43:43.440 and clearly the Ukrainian leadership is very concerned about the 0:43:43.480 --> 0:43:47.000 outcome of our own election because from what former President 0:43:47.080 --> 0:43:49.400 Trump has said, I mean, he said he'll end the 0:43:49.400 --> 0:43:51.920 war in twenty four hours. We obviously had no idea 0:43:52.320 --> 0:43:54.040 how we would plan to do that. But I think 0:43:54.040 --> 0:43:56.279 what we do know and again listening to J. D 0:43:56.480 --> 0:44:00.799 Vance is that support for Ukraine would possibly probably end 0:44:01.560 --> 0:44:05.360 with a Trump victory, a financial support, probably weapons support, 0:44:05.560 --> 0:44:09.279 and the Ukrainians would be under great pressure to negotiate 0:44:09.360 --> 0:44:12.200 a settlement with Russia, which really would not be in 0:44:12.760 --> 0:44:16.240 their interests. That is to say, if former President Trump 0:44:16.280 --> 0:44:19.319 offers President Putin, who we have to acknowledge has no 0:44:19.440 --> 0:44:22.880 interest in negotiations at the moment, but if he's offered 0:44:23.200 --> 0:44:25.680 something that would make it worth his while, and former 0:44:25.680 --> 0:44:29.520 President Trump has said that would include lifting sanctions against Russia, 0:44:29.600 --> 0:44:31.280 which of course Trump can't. 0:44:31.040 --> 0:44:31.680 Do on his own. 0:44:31.719 --> 0:44:34.960 There is a US Congress, So I think that's one scenario, 0:44:35.000 --> 0:44:37.279 and I do think with a Trump victory, the war 0:44:37.440 --> 0:44:44.000 probably will end sooner and it will end with a settlement. 0:44:44.040 --> 0:44:47.200 If there is a settlement that's not favorable to Ukraine. 0:44:47.560 --> 0:44:51.040 If there's a Democratic victory, if Vice President Harris wins, 0:44:51.360 --> 0:44:54.720 then I think you would have a reevaluation of the policy. 0:44:54.760 --> 0:44:58.400 You probably have a continuation of support for Ukraine. But 0:44:58.440 --> 0:45:00.720 I also think there will be less finite actual support 0:45:01.080 --> 0:45:03.759 coming from the United States in the next year. So 0:45:03.840 --> 0:45:07.480 I think either way we are looking at the possibility 0:45:07.520 --> 0:45:11.920 of negotiations happening sooner rather than later. But the question 0:45:12.160 --> 0:45:15.360 is when we have an administration that will give Ukraine 0:45:15.400 --> 0:45:18.120 more than you know, than it has at the moment. 0:45:18.520 --> 0:45:21.120 Doctor Angelis Stent, thank you so much. Always appreciate it. 0:45:21.160 --> 0:45:24.040 Author of Putin's World and of course over at Workings Institution. 0:45:24.360 --> 0:45:35.440 This is bloombokmark. 0:45:32.120 --> 0:45:32.800 A journal. 0:45:33.840 --> 0:45:34.799 How about you let me drive? 0:45:35.320 --> 0:45:36.760 No no, no, no's. 0:45:38.160 --> 0:45:42.319 Honey, please gravels. I want to drive. 0:45:42.320 --> 0:45:45.520 It's a good question. 0:45:46.239 --> 0:45:49.960 Try This is. 0:45:49.960 --> 0:45:51.600 The Drive to the Globe. 0:45:51.719 --> 0:45:54.000 Punk me effect well Byron jot. 0:45:53.800 --> 0:45:55.720 It on on Bloomberg Radio. 0:45:56.280 --> 0:45:58.640 All right, tiktack everybody about eighteen and a half minutes 0:45:58.680 --> 0:46:01.040 ago until we wrap up the find a trading session 0:46:01.120 --> 0:46:04.040 does feel like, Yeah, we're seeing definitely some enthusiasm. 0:46:04.120 --> 0:46:04.719 We're going to get. 0:46:04.600 --> 0:46:06.480 Into some of the sectors and the winterers and gain 0:46:06.719 --> 0:46:07.640 winters and losers. 0:46:07.640 --> 0:46:09.360 I should say a little bit later on. 0:46:09.400 --> 0:46:09.879 I'm just looking. 0:46:09.920 --> 0:46:11.920 I'd like to think of them as declining, as not losers. 0:46:12.080 --> 0:46:13.480 But for bringing that, what. 0:46:13.520 --> 0:46:16.200 Is it like the category ward and the winner is yeah, 0:46:16.200 --> 0:46:16.840 I can't even say that. 0:46:17.000 --> 0:46:19.040 Get the winners, I get the runners up. 0:46:19.080 --> 0:46:21.479 Almost four hundred names, three hundred and seventy six names 0:46:21.480 --> 0:46:23.160 in the S and P five hundred higher today one 0:46:23.200 --> 0:46:24.520 hundred and twenty seven to the downside. 0:46:24.560 --> 0:46:26.600 Yeah, we're certainly seeing some strength when it comes to 0:46:26.600 --> 0:46:30.000 the equity market today, more buyers than sellers. Let's see 0:46:30.000 --> 0:46:31.960 what our drive to the closed guests has to say 0:46:31.960 --> 0:46:34.640 about this. Back with us, as David Bonston, CIO over 0:46:34.680 --> 0:46:36.120 at the Bonson Group, He joins us here in the 0:46:36.160 --> 0:46:39.279 Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio, what do you make of this 0:46:39.320 --> 0:46:40.400 relentless move higher? 0:46:41.000 --> 0:46:43.240 Well, I think a lot of things are getting quite stretched, 0:46:43.239 --> 0:46:47.040 and that valuation story has has kind of confounded things 0:46:47.080 --> 0:46:50.120 all year long. You have expensive things getting more expensive. 0:46:50.200 --> 0:46:52.680 You do not have organic earnings growth. They already priced 0:46:52.719 --> 0:46:55.719 in really robust earnings growth and it's lived up to it, 0:46:55.960 --> 0:46:57.560 but it's not going above and beyond that. 0:46:57.680 --> 0:46:59.320 You have valuations are expanding. 0:46:59.440 --> 0:47:02.160 So if you're getting new money right now, how are 0:47:02.160 --> 0:47:03.760 you putting it to work? If things are expensive. 0:47:03.840 --> 0:47:06.400 So we're not index investors and we're not big tech investors, 0:47:06.440 --> 0:47:09.520 and so within a dividend growth, very concentrated portfolio, we 0:47:09.600 --> 0:47:11.760 never own more than about thirty companies at a time. 0:47:11.960 --> 0:47:13.880 We think there's good pockets of value in some of 0:47:13.880 --> 0:47:16.080 the consumer staples. We've got a very good year in 0:47:16.120 --> 0:47:19.120 both financials and even energy. Energy as a sector hasn't 0:47:19.120 --> 0:47:21.759 done well, but midstream has done quite well, and it's 0:47:21.800 --> 0:47:25.440 still really well valued. But we also are going in slowly, 0:47:25.480 --> 0:47:27.879 we're tethering. If we're getting brand new cash in, we're 0:47:27.880 --> 0:47:29.839 not putting every dollar of it to work on day one. 0:47:29.880 --> 0:47:31.319 How much new cash are you bringing in? 0:47:32.320 --> 0:47:34.040 How much new cash we bring it in in terms 0:47:34.080 --> 0:47:37.080 of just new moneies that come in. Yeah, well, we 0:47:37.160 --> 0:47:39.080 bring in anywhere from fifty to one hundred million dollars 0:47:39.120 --> 0:47:40.399 a month of new money every month. 0:47:40.480 --> 0:47:41.280 Is that pretty regular? 0:47:41.320 --> 0:47:43.160 I'm just curious if it's different from what you've seen 0:47:43.200 --> 0:47:45.080 over the last six months or so. 0:47:45.440 --> 0:47:47.640 It's been very consistent for us for a few years now. 0:47:47.719 --> 0:47:49.799 A bad month is fifty, a good month is one 0:47:49.880 --> 0:47:53.160 hundred and twenty. And right now we're kind of tethering 0:47:53.200 --> 0:47:55.640 it in. And again, some of them are undervalued things. 0:47:55.680 --> 0:47:57.799 If we get a company has disappointing earnings, it gives 0:47:57.840 --> 0:47:59.879 us a chance to add more. So what you guys 0:47:59.880 --> 0:48:02.800 are calling the losers of the decliners, that's what we like. 0:48:03.000 --> 0:48:05.080 We like those things when they take a check back. 0:48:04.920 --> 0:48:06.240 Where's the new money coming from? 0:48:06.960 --> 0:48:09.000 Well, look, there's still a lot of m and a activity. 0:48:09.040 --> 0:48:10.799 We've had a lot of clients have sold businesses. You 0:48:10.840 --> 0:48:13.560 have a lot of people that have had bonds and 0:48:13.560 --> 0:48:16.719 different things mature. The one thesis I don't agree with 0:48:16.840 --> 0:48:19.480 is this money market balance and all this cash on side. 0:48:20.719 --> 0:48:22.400 I don't think that money's coming back into equities. 0:48:22.440 --> 0:48:23.880 Where do you think it's going to go bonds? 0:48:23.920 --> 0:48:26.640 I think most of it was either reserved savings money 0:48:26.640 --> 0:48:29.439 that was previously zero interest deposit that went to money 0:48:29.480 --> 0:48:31.600 market to get a little yield, or it came out 0:48:31.600 --> 0:48:33.000 of the bond market where you could get rid of 0:48:33.080 --> 0:48:34.640 duration risk and get the same yield. 0:48:34.719 --> 0:48:36.680 I wonder why that number keeps getting higher. 0:48:37.360 --> 0:48:39.000 I think a lot of it is because people are 0:48:39.000 --> 0:48:40.960 confusing bank deposit and money market. 0:48:41.200 --> 0:48:42.840 That you had a lot of money market. 0:48:42.560 --> 0:48:45.759 Which is really short term te bills, commercial paper, and 0:48:45.840 --> 0:48:48.920 it just became a surrogate for bonds. Because after twenty 0:48:49.000 --> 0:48:51.319 twenty two, which twenty three is when bulk of this 0:48:51.400 --> 0:48:54.839 money moved, and you had the risk at Silicon Valley 0:48:54.840 --> 0:48:57.120 Bank and some of those things, money markets are paying 0:48:57.120 --> 0:48:59.239 five five and a half percent yields. People said, well, 0:48:59.280 --> 0:49:01.400 bonds are down ten percent fifteen percent, why do I 0:49:01.480 --> 0:49:03.040 need to go into bonds. I can go to money 0:49:03.040 --> 0:49:05.160 mark and get a higher yield. So it just kind 0:49:05.160 --> 0:49:07.600 of reallocated a lot of that positioning. 0:49:07.719 --> 0:49:10.040 In terms of treasury. And you look at the USL curve. 0:49:10.160 --> 0:49:12.360 I mean, do you think that we could once again 0:49:12.400 --> 0:49:15.919 test five percent here potentially on the ten percent. 0:49:16.200 --> 0:49:17.640 On the ten year. I do not know. 0:49:17.920 --> 0:49:19.640 I mean, obviously you could, but it would not be 0:49:19.719 --> 0:49:22.400 our thesis. I think that, look, there's been very little 0:49:22.440 --> 0:49:24.640 move up and tip spreads at all. It's been entirely 0:49:24.719 --> 0:49:29.040 real GDP expectations. So the real growth expectations are not 0:49:29.200 --> 0:49:31.440 good enough to get the ten year up to five percent. 0:49:31.480 --> 0:49:33.080 If it did, I wouldn't see it as a negative 0:49:33.160 --> 0:49:35.440 because it's not coming from higher inflation expectations. 0:49:35.440 --> 0:49:36.759 It's coming from higher. 0:49:36.760 --> 0:49:40.080 Real growth expectations. And I think that it's gotten quite 0:49:40.160 --> 0:49:42.719 stretched here. We were at three seventy, it's gotten up 0:49:42.760 --> 0:49:45.160 to the four twenty five for thirty. I would be 0:49:45.280 --> 0:49:47.160 very surprised if it goes much about four fifty. But 0:49:47.200 --> 0:49:51.040 that's because I'm long term bearish on structural growth. 0:49:51.120 --> 0:49:52.759 The tenure does not measure the FED. 0:49:53.080 --> 0:49:55.040 Every day I'm hearing someone say, why if the fedce 0:49:55.080 --> 0:49:57.800 cutting is a tenure going higher. The FED can't control 0:49:57.840 --> 0:49:59.560 the long end of the curve short end of it's 0:49:59.560 --> 0:50:01.920 a short that is all they can control. The tenure 0:50:02.239 --> 0:50:06.000 really does price in trillions of dollars of real people's 0:50:06.040 --> 0:50:09.000 expectations for nominal GDP growth. 0:50:09.160 --> 0:50:11.960 Inflation isn't moving. Real growth has moved up a. 0:50:11.880 --> 0:50:13.640 Bit, but doesn't the longer end of the yield curve 0:50:13.680 --> 0:50:17.440 potentially also factor in what the US government does in 0:50:17.520 --> 0:50:19.360 terms of debt on their balance sheet. And that is 0:50:19.400 --> 0:50:21.319 something that once again for those of us who have 0:50:21.320 --> 0:50:23.880 been around a long time, we remember all those arguments 0:50:23.880 --> 0:50:25.960 and concerns about the deficit, and then it went away, 0:50:26.040 --> 0:50:27.040 and now it's back again. 0:50:27.080 --> 0:50:29.600 And this is where I'm a contrarian from the lessons 0:50:29.600 --> 0:50:31.840 of Japan and the lessons of the US for fifteen 0:50:31.920 --> 0:50:34.600 years after our own financial crisis, I do not believe 0:50:34.600 --> 0:50:37.920 that growing deficits pushes the yields higher, puts downward pressure 0:50:37.920 --> 0:50:39.240 on yields because. 0:50:39.120 --> 0:50:40.320 It suppresses growth. 0:50:40.760 --> 0:50:42.759 And so Japan went to two hundred and fifty percent 0:50:42.800 --> 0:50:45.400 debt to GDP and ended up with negative yields forever. 0:50:45.680 --> 0:50:48.680 Central banks that manipulate and intervene at that stage, but 0:50:48.800 --> 0:50:52.400 the point being that real growth expectations go lower, not higher, 0:50:52.560 --> 0:50:55.480 from increased deficit spending. We're far past the point of 0:50:55.520 --> 0:50:57.960 a multiplier on this fiscal stimulus. 0:50:58.360 --> 0:51:01.120 I want to talk a little bit about a comment 0:51:01.120 --> 0:51:04.120 from Edi Ard Danny a little earlier today on Bloomberg TV. 0:51:04.560 --> 0:51:08.040 He talked about bond vigilantes mustering as the US and 0:51:08.080 --> 0:51:12.960 the UK prep debt sales. Are you concerned about a 0:51:13.000 --> 0:51:15.080 potential return of bond vigilantes. 0:51:15.440 --> 0:51:18.240 No, I'm kind of amused that we're talking about thirty 0:51:18.280 --> 0:51:21.279 or forty basis points, so that's supposed to be bond vigilantes. 0:51:21.440 --> 0:51:23.839 The tenures come all the way up to four point 0:51:23.920 --> 0:51:26.760 three percent, which is still seventy seventy five basis points 0:51:26.880 --> 0:51:29.640 less than it was a year ago. There's no bond 0:51:29.680 --> 0:51:32.239 vigilantes now. Ed is Defense, who's a brilliant guy and 0:51:32.280 --> 0:51:35.400 a friend. He's talking about the potential for it to happen. 0:51:35.840 --> 0:51:38.480 But again, the bond vigilanti thesis has been out there 0:51:38.680 --> 0:51:41.799 since post financial crisis. We've run up these deficits and 0:51:41.840 --> 0:51:44.640 it has done nothing to put downward pressure on bondial. 0:51:44.440 --> 0:51:48.520 That said, this election, what happens if one of these 0:51:48.520 --> 0:51:51.480 parties sweeps and they get this blank check to spend 0:51:51.800 --> 0:51:53.560 Either both can I don't care who you're talking about, 0:51:53.560 --> 0:51:55.280 they're both talking about spending a lot of money. 0:51:55.560 --> 0:51:58.400 Neither candidate is going to have a blank check to 0:51:58.440 --> 0:52:01.120 spend what they want even First of all, I think 0:52:01.120 --> 0:52:03.800 it's very unlikely that Harris ends up with a Democrat 0:52:03.800 --> 0:52:06.480 House and Senate. It would be a real miracle for 0:52:06.560 --> 0:52:09.800 her to win and that the Senate move in that direction. 0:52:09.840 --> 0:52:12.200 But let's say she has a fifty to fifty control, 0:52:12.440 --> 0:52:14.680 there's one or two Democrats that won't approve a lot 0:52:14.680 --> 0:52:17.319 of the spending as well. In Trump's case, a lot 0:52:17.360 --> 0:52:19.879 of the projections for deficit blowouts have to do more 0:52:19.920 --> 0:52:23.200 with the lost revenue side than increased spending. 0:52:23.239 --> 0:52:24.839 I still think he'll spend a lot. I don't think 0:52:24.840 --> 0:52:26.840 he minds spending or big debt and deficits. 0:52:27.160 --> 0:52:29.520 But the red side of the Senate and House I 0:52:29.520 --> 0:52:31.759 think will have to hold him in. They won't to 0:52:31.800 --> 0:52:33.759 the degree I need us to. All were debating is 0:52:33.760 --> 0:52:36.040 whether not the deficit goes up a trillion or a 0:52:36.040 --> 0:52:38.160 trillion and a half, But The biggest thing is going 0:52:38.160 --> 0:52:40.359 to bring deficits down a few hundred billion is rates 0:52:40.400 --> 0:52:43.400 coming lower. The term structure a treasury debt is so 0:52:43.640 --> 0:52:45.680 loaded to the short end of the curve that if 0:52:45.719 --> 0:52:48.040 you go from a five percent T bill to a 0:52:48.080 --> 0:52:50.880 two or three percent T bill, you're pulling out hundreds 0:52:50.880 --> 0:52:54.120 of billions of dollars of debt service cost. That's going 0:52:54.160 --> 0:52:55.319 to be some of the relief there. 0:52:55.400 --> 0:52:57.160 What do you make of a lost decade in stocks? 0:52:57.200 --> 0:52:59.200 You know that this has been something we've been everybody's 0:52:59.200 --> 0:53:02.160 been kicking around. A cost In of Goldman Sachs, chief 0:53:02.200 --> 0:53:08.080 US equity strategist, published a paper and basically what he 0:53:08.200 --> 0:53:11.560 said is suggesting the index S and P five hundred 0:53:11.560 --> 0:53:13.719 well gain only three percent nominal terms one percent in 0:53:13.760 --> 0:53:16.040 real terms per year over the next decade, which would 0:53:16.040 --> 0:53:17.640 be one of the worst on record. 0:53:19.080 --> 0:53:21.480 You buy that completely, But I feel like he plagiarized 0:53:21.520 --> 0:53:21.880 it for me. 0:53:22.000 --> 0:53:25.040 But I'm joking. David Costin is brilliant. His name almost 0:53:25.120 --> 0:53:27.239 rhymes with David Bonsen. And I've been saying this for 0:53:27.280 --> 0:53:30.200 several years. I believe the post crisis bull market ended 0:53:30.440 --> 0:53:33.440 November twenty twenty one, and we started at that point 0:53:33.480 --> 0:53:36.160 a period of what effectively could be a last decade. 0:53:36.239 --> 0:53:39.080 I think he said three percent real growth, and I 0:53:39.360 --> 0:53:39.960 could see it. 0:53:39.920 --> 0:53:42.319 Four or five there, three percent nominal, one percent in. 0:53:42.320 --> 0:53:44.360 Real, Right, that will feel like a lost decade to 0:53:44.440 --> 0:53:47.680 most people. Even if you get let's say three percent 0:53:47.760 --> 0:53:51.200 real five percent nominal, even then you're talking about a 0:53:51.239 --> 0:53:52.359 tiny fraction of. 0:53:52.280 --> 0:53:53.319 What investors got used to. 0:53:53.520 --> 0:53:56.960 Investors aren't even right now prepared for historical returns nine 0:53:57.040 --> 0:53:59.000 or ten in the SMP. They're used to fourteen or 0:53:59.000 --> 0:54:02.319 fifteen to fourteen or fifteen without down years along the way. 0:54:02.360 --> 0:54:04.960 Well, some would say that about rates, this is historically 0:54:04.960 --> 0:54:06.319 more normal, and you. 0:54:06.360 --> 0:54:09.080 Just cannot get the earnings growth, and you certainly can't 0:54:09.080 --> 0:54:11.520 get the multiple expansion to make that possible. 0:54:11.520 --> 0:54:13.560 All right, David Bonson, thank you so much, CEO of 0:54:13.560 --> 0:54:15.800 the Bonson Group, joining us right here in our Bloomberg 0:54:15.880 --> 0:54:16.960 Interactive Brokers. 0:54:16.680 --> 0:54:20.360 Studio for This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast of 0:54:20.440 --> 0:54:23.400 a little on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you can 0:54:23.440 --> 0:54:27.279 get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from two to 0:54:27.360 --> 0:54:31.080 five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, 0:54:31.160 --> 0:54:33.720 tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 0:54:33.800 --> 0:54:37.200 watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on 0:54:37.239 --> 0:54:38.560 the Bloomberg Jomy alone