1
00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,080
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.

2
00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:16,439
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.

3
00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:19,320
Speaker 1: Tracy, I think we have to talk more about the

4
00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,000
Speaker 1: disruptions in the Red Sea. We sort of hit on

5
00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:25,680
Speaker 1: them briefly with Craig Fuller a couple of weeks ago,

6
00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:29,240
Speaker 1: but they've escalated. They're not going away. There's been a

7
00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:33,160
Speaker 1: military response, but so far the tension and strikes continued,

8
00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:35,640
Speaker 1: ongoing and becoming a bigger issue.

9
00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:36,080
Speaker 3: Yeah.

10
00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:39,640
Speaker 2: I think there have been dozens of attacks at this point,

11
00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,240
Speaker 2: and there have been people who are having to make

12
00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:46,400
Speaker 2: hard decisions about whether or not to continue going through

13
00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,600
Speaker 2: the Suez Canal, which is, of course this waterway that

14
00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:53,239
Speaker 2: is incredibly important for global trade. Just before we came

15
00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,440
Speaker 2: on the show, I was reading a figure saying something

16
00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:59,200
Speaker 2: like the Suez Canal handles twelve to fifteen percent of

17
00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:01,880
Speaker 2: global trade at least in twenty twenty three. So when

18
00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,560
Speaker 2: we say a chunk of global trade has been affected,

19
00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,800
Speaker 2: we do actually mean a significant chunk.

20
00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,600
Speaker 1: A significant chunk, and we've all seen I guess those

21
00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:15,760
Speaker 1: maps of ships being rerouted around the southern coast of Africa,

22
00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,720
Speaker 1: the Horn of Africa. My understanding. I think there's been

23
00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,200
Speaker 1: reports that started is just container ships, but it's been

24
00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,280
Speaker 1: affecting other things. So it's starting to perhaps affect the

25
00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:28,480
Speaker 1: oil trade and so forth. And look, maybe the attacks

26
00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,560
Speaker 1: will go away, maybe they can be stopped. I don't know,

27
00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,200
Speaker 1: but I mean I do think, you know, it's pretty

28
00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:39,520
Speaker 1: striking that a fairly small military group is able to

29
00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:43,160
Speaker 1: create such a big disruption, and there is no obvious

30
00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:46,160
Speaker 1: solution from the biggest military power in the world, that

31
00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:47,640
Speaker 1: being the US obviously.

32
00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,800
Speaker 2: Right, and there is this overarching question of whether or

33
00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,960
Speaker 2: not the US should be involved. And I think we're

34
00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,920
Speaker 2: seeing some other governments, notably in Europe, start to make

35
00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,440
Speaker 2: more noise about this as well. So yes, there is

36
00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,760
Speaker 2: a sort of political aspect to this as well.

37
00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,120
Speaker 1: Well, let's get right into it. We really do have

38
00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 1: the perfect guest we are going to be speaking with,

39
00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:12,240
Speaker 1: sale Mercagliano. He is a maritime historian at Campbell University.

40
00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,360
Speaker 1: He is the host of the YouTube show What's going

41
00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:19,359
Speaker 1: On with Shipping and sometimes he has been a tracker

42
00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:23,320
Speaker 1: Tracy of your own Furniture. The last time I think

43
00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,040
Speaker 1: the only time we've spoken to him in the past

44
00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,240
Speaker 1: was when your furniture was stuck. What was the ship,

45
00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:29,960
Speaker 1: the ever Forward, the.

46
00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:31,320
Speaker 2: One I think it was the ever Forward.

47
00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,400
Speaker 1: When your furniture was stuck on the ever Forward, I

48
00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,120
Speaker 1: guess that was in twenty twenty one. Returned to sail

49
00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,880
Speaker 1: and now, of course this is so much more severe disruption.

50
00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:42,120
Speaker 1: We're going to have sail back so sale. Thank you

51
00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:44,120
Speaker 1: so much for coming back on odd locks.

52
00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:45,240
Speaker 3: Thank you for having me.

53
00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:50,680
Speaker 1: Let's just start really big picture with how extraordinary and

54
00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:54,919
Speaker 1: unusual is the scale of this disruption happening right now.

55
00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:59,520
Speaker 4: You're looking at about eleven percent of the world's trade

56
00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:03,600
Speaker 4: ghost through this vital maritime choke point, the Bob al Mandeb.

57
00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:06,000
Speaker 4: This is the Gate of Tears. This is the very

58
00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,440
Speaker 4: southern end of the Red Sea. This is the connection

59
00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:12,079
Speaker 4: between Europe and Asia. But it's much more than that.

60
00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,960
Speaker 4: You're looking at trade that goes not just between those

61
00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,200
Speaker 4: two areas, but actually kind of like a hub and

62
00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:21,600
Speaker 4: spoke system kind of radiates out around the planet. And

63
00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,919
Speaker 4: this attack by the Huthi, which started off very small scale.

64
00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:28,560
Speaker 4: You saw a helicopter assault onto a ship the Galaxy

65
00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,160
Speaker 4: Leader back on November nineteenth, has now escalated and what

66
00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:35,520
Speaker 4: we've seen is not just container ships that have started

67
00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:39,560
Speaker 4: to divert around, but now liquefied natural gas carriers, liquified

68
00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:44,360
Speaker 4: petroleum gas carriers, tankers and even bulk vessels are now

69
00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,440
Speaker 4: moving around. And as you mentioned, this adds thirty five

70
00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:48,360
Speaker 4: hundred miles.

71
00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:49,920
Speaker 3: But the biggest thing is it.

72
00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,720
Speaker 4: Creates massive delays and disruptions. And for the Huthi, which

73
00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,120
Speaker 4: are a small player, you know, one part in a

74
00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:59,680
Speaker 4: three way civil war in Yemen, they have created more

75
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,800
Speaker 4: eruption of global trade. Then you almost have to go

76
00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:06,080
Speaker 4: back to the World Wars to find something similar to this.

77
00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:09,520
Speaker 2: So sal you mentioned that the Hooties have sort of

78
00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:14,080
Speaker 2: expanded their repertoire of attacks I suppose to now include

79
00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,960
Speaker 2: LNG and bulk vessels and things like that. What is

80
00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,839
Speaker 2: their strategy here and how has it evolved over time?

81
00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,600
Speaker 2: Because we have seen an escalation since November, but there

82
00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:29,599
Speaker 2: were sort of isolated attacks happening before then. So what

83
00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:30,680
Speaker 2: is changing here?

84
00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, so initially they were focusing on ships connected to Israel. I. Mean,

85
00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,919
Speaker 4: the root of this issue is the houthis kind of

86
00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:43,400
Speaker 4: solidarity with the Palestinians and Hamas in the Gaza strip.

87
00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:44,880
Speaker 4: And then again it goes all the way back to

88
00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:48,280
Speaker 4: the Israel Hamas issue. So, but we've seen the Houthis

89
00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:50,680
Speaker 4: attack ships prior to this, go back to twenty sixteen,

90
00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:55,000
Speaker 4: twenty seventeen. We saw attacks on UAE vessels, we saw

91
00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:56,880
Speaker 4: an attack on a Saudi frigate, we even saw an

92
00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:01,520
Speaker 4: attack on a US Navy destroyer. But this effort recently

93
00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:05,120
Speaker 4: is focusing on Israeli owned Israeli flagships. So we saw

94
00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:09,240
Speaker 4: ships of zim and other Israeli companies immediately divert But

95
00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,679
Speaker 4: then the hoothy expanded. They started targeting vessels they said

96
00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:17,000
Speaker 4: was connected to Israel either through their ownership. So for example,

97
00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:21,640
Speaker 4: Mediterranean Shipping Company, what the largest container liner in the world,

98
00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,240
Speaker 4: they started targeting their ships because the owner's wife of

99
00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:30,240
Speaker 4: Mediterranean Shipping Company has dual citizenships Switzerland and Israel. And

100
00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,680
Speaker 4: then we saw attacks that really had no connection at

101
00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:36,000
Speaker 4: all to Israel, but they would try to make those attacks.

102
00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:39,360
Speaker 4: And what these attacks are doing aren't really so much

103
00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:41,640
Speaker 4: damaging vessels. We've seen ships hit and we had a

104
00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,480
Speaker 4: very dramatic one just the other day with a ship

105
00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:47,360
Speaker 4: called the Marlon Lwanda, which caught fire. But what they're

106
00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:50,119
Speaker 4: doing is raising the cost to sail through this area

107
00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:53,480
Speaker 4: by escalating war risk insurance. And we saw that very

108
00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:56,400
Speaker 4: similar thing happened in the Red Sea between Russia and Ukraine.

109
00:05:56,720 --> 00:06:00,159
Speaker 4: But by escalating war risk insurance, the added insurance you

110
00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,640
Speaker 4: need to sail through an area, you make very expensive

111
00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:07,360
Speaker 4: ships such as container ships, which have a value of

112
00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,800
Speaker 4: between a quarter to a half a billion dollars cost

113
00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,679
Speaker 4: prohibitive to sail through. We saw the war risks, for example,

114
00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,839
Speaker 4: jump from point zero two percent the value of the

115
00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,760
Speaker 4: ship up to one percent. And when you start doing

116
00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,479
Speaker 4: the math on value of vessels, the very expensive vessels

117
00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:27,320
Speaker 4: find it more costly economical to sail around Africa.

118
00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:31,800
Speaker 1: Wait wait, let's uh, this is interesting. How is war

119
00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:35,800
Speaker 1: risk insurance assessed? And when you say like one percent,

120
00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,760
Speaker 1: is that per per trip?

121
00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:39,040
Speaker 3: Like?

122
00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:41,400
Speaker 1: How did those talk to us a little bit more

123
00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:43,360
Speaker 1: about these deals and the math there?

124
00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:44,520
Speaker 3: Sure?

125
00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:47,920
Speaker 4: So, shipping insurance is done by a group of companies

126
00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,600
Speaker 4: called clubs, and they get together and literally there's a

127
00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:54,480
Speaker 4: committee in London that puts together areas of warrist They

128
00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:58,880
Speaker 4: identify the areas that there are confrontations and basically whether

129
00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,320
Speaker 4: or not you need this added insurance kind of like

130
00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:03,320
Speaker 4: flood insurance for your house. If you don't have it

131
00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,400
Speaker 4: in your house is damaged by a flood, your normal

132
00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,760
Speaker 4: insurance wouldn't cover it. So they identified the area in

133
00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,800
Speaker 4: and around the Red Sea as a potential war risk,

134
00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,600
Speaker 4: initially down to a point zero two percent, but as

135
00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:18,800
Speaker 4: the Hoothy attacked and then increase their level attacks, they

136
00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,400
Speaker 4: have ratcheted up that war risk. We're seeing right now,

137
00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,080
Speaker 4: for example up in the on the Black Sea, that

138
00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,160
Speaker 4: war risk is right around one point twenty five percent.

139
00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:30,200
Speaker 4: That's come down from about three percent. And so this

140
00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,760
Speaker 4: committee will assess that. And if you want to sail

141
00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,760
Speaker 4: through these regions, and they specify latitude and longitude and

142
00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,640
Speaker 4: the distance you pay it for that one time voyage.

143
00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:41,360
Speaker 4: So if you let's assume you have a ship of

144
00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,320
Speaker 4: one hundred million dollars both the value of the ship

145
00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,800
Speaker 4: and the cargo, then you have to pay a million

146
00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:50,520
Speaker 4: dollars to go through there. And now you start weighing

147
00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:52,720
Speaker 4: that against well, it's about a half a million to

148
00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,600
Speaker 4: go through the Suez, but it's going to cost me

149
00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,000
Speaker 4: over a million dollars in extra fuel to go around.

150
00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:02,040
Speaker 4: What's the benefit here for doing it? And what we

151
00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:05,360
Speaker 4: saw is on the higher end ships, the container ships,

152
00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:07,520
Speaker 4: the LNG and LPG carriers.

153
00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:08,600
Speaker 3: Then they were.

154
00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,640
Speaker 4: Weighing, It's like, Okay, it's much more economical and safer

155
00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,480
Speaker 4: for me to go around Africa than to take this risk.

156
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,000
Speaker 2: This is something that I wanted to ask, actually, But

157
00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:21,120
Speaker 2: who makes the ultimate decision on what route to take?

158
00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,040
Speaker 2: Because as I sit here and I sort of imagine

159
00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:28,360
Speaker 2: all the different actors involved in one journey, any one

160
00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:30,520
Speaker 2: of them would make sense, Like the captain could make

161
00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:34,880
Speaker 2: the decision, the shipping company, maybe the insurer is ultimately

162
00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,840
Speaker 2: the limiting factor by virtue of the costs that you

163
00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,400
Speaker 2: just laid out. Maybe governments decide that it's just too

164
00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:43,880
Speaker 2: dangerous to go this route. It could be anyone. So

165
00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,680
Speaker 2: who's the sort of big decision maker in all of this?

166
00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:49,720
Speaker 4: I mean, ultimately it comes down to the company, and

167
00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,600
Speaker 4: the company will make those decisions of where to go.

168
00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,480
Speaker 4: They'll consult with the insurance companies to see what kind

169
00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:57,640
Speaker 4: of war risk insurance they can get, what kind of

170
00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,160
Speaker 4: policy they can get, what deal they can get. Some

171
00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,640
Speaker 4: insurance companies may not want to underwrite a vessel because

172
00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,160
Speaker 4: it's too dangerous or they view it as you know,

173
00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,800
Speaker 4: So we had this ship that got hit, the Marlon Lwanda,

174
00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:10,840
Speaker 4: and that ship probably paid a million dollars in war

175
00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:13,280
Speaker 4: risk insurance. We don't know for sure, but probably based

176
00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,480
Speaker 4: on the value of the ship and the cargo. But

177
00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:17,760
Speaker 4: the damage inflicted on the vessel was well over a

178
00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:20,320
Speaker 4: million dollars And so if you're an insurance company, you

179
00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,760
Speaker 4: get away. Am I getting enough premiums in from the

180
00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:27,080
Speaker 4: other companies to continue to assess this and you know,

181
00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,640
Speaker 4: registry comes into this. Maybe a national registry will sit

182
00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:33,160
Speaker 4: there and say we don't want our ships to come

183
00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,880
Speaker 4: through this area, and some companies will take the risk.

184
00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:40,280
Speaker 4: We seen large container companies CMA CGM, for example, which

185
00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,480
Speaker 4: is a French based container company. They have run some

186
00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:46,240
Speaker 4: ships through there. They did that while paying a very

187
00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,679
Speaker 4: high war risk insurance. But they think that the offset

188
00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:51,960
Speaker 4: was the US Navy and the Royal Navy were there

189
00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:55,320
Speaker 4: protecting them, and then they got the additional escort of

190
00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:59,040
Speaker 4: French vessels riding right alongside of them taking them through

191
00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,800
Speaker 4: this area. And the reason they're doing that is because

192
00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:06,560
Speaker 4: in economics they saw the redeployment of containers from Europe

193
00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,760
Speaker 4: to Asia of being such high value that it offset

194
00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,840
Speaker 4: the potential downside of it.

195
00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:12,600
Speaker 3: So there's a.

196
00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:14,920
Speaker 4: Lot of factors that are going into this. But what

197
00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:18,480
Speaker 4: we're seeing now is because of those attacks and the

198
00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,480
Speaker 4: escalation of the attacks and the severity of the attacks,

199
00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,480
Speaker 4: more and more ships are now shifting away. We've seen

200
00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,920
Speaker 4: a reduction in the total number of ships going through

201
00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:32,240
Speaker 4: the Suez Canal about thirty percent downward, but where we're

202
00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:35,160
Speaker 4: seeing in terms of tonnage, it's almost fifty to sixty percent.

203
00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:38,839
Speaker 4: So the very large vessels, very expensive vessels, you're making

204
00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:39,920
Speaker 4: that diversion around.

205
00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,800
Speaker 1: Let's get into the military component. You mentioned the French Navy,

206
00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:04,480
Speaker 1: the escorts. What are the different strategies that whether it's

207
00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:08,560
Speaker 1: the French the US military have taken in trying to

208
00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,200
Speaker 1: protect the ships. Is it all like they sort of

209
00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:13,480
Speaker 1: one for one escorts, Like, how does that work?

210
00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:15,920
Speaker 4: Well, that was a big issue. How are you going

211
00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:17,720
Speaker 4: to do this? Are you going to do Tom Hanks

212
00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:21,200
Speaker 4: and Greyhound and run these escorts through and tell you truth,

213
00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,360
Speaker 4: the militaries don't like this mission. It's not a very glamorous,

214
00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,400
Speaker 4: sexy mission, but it's one that's really essential and it

215
00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:29,800
Speaker 4: really was bread and butter for the US Navy for

216
00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,760
Speaker 4: years literally the founding. So what the Navy decided and

217
00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:36,840
Speaker 4: when they initiated Operation what they called Prosperity Guardian, was

218
00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,440
Speaker 4: to take their very sophisticated destroyers. These are the arly

219
00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:45,599
Speaker 4: Burk class destroyers supplemented by Royal Navy type forty five destroyers,

220
00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:47,760
Speaker 4: and what they have done is basically set up a

221
00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:52,320
Speaker 4: series of fence posts between Yemen and the main shipping channel.

222
00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:55,560
Speaker 4: And these destroyers are there to catch the missiles that

223
00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,520
Speaker 4: fly overhead, and so they're shooting down drones and these

224
00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:02,280
Speaker 4: anti ship either cruise means missiles, or what's really amazing

225
00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:05,160
Speaker 4: about this is ballistic missiles. Something we have not seen

226
00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,800
Speaker 4: before is these missiles that fly a very high trajectory

227
00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:10,959
Speaker 4: and come down. There's a lot of debate whether or

228
00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:13,080
Speaker 4: not you can even hit a ship with a ballistic missile.

229
00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,160
Speaker 4: So these destroyers, the US and the British are providing

230
00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:19,600
Speaker 4: these gatekeepers. And then you have other navies, the French Navy,

231
00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:23,120
Speaker 4: the Italian Navy, and most interesting of all, I would

232
00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:25,400
Speaker 4: argue that the Indian Navy which has come out in

233
00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:29,680
Speaker 4: big force to provide kind of direct escorts. And the

234
00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:33,320
Speaker 4: problem you have is it's very defensive they're reacting to

235
00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,880
Speaker 4: the situation that we saw military strikes take place. And

236
00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,680
Speaker 4: the commander of the naval forces out there, Vice Adimal

237
00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:43,960
Speaker 4: Brad Cooper, is very clear in differentiating the two. There's

238
00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:47,240
Speaker 4: a defensive operation and then there's the offensive operation, and

239
00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:51,320
Speaker 4: the offensive operation was trying to eliminate the potential for

240
00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,559
Speaker 4: the Houthis to launch attacks. The problem is, the Houthis

241
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,120
Speaker 4: have been subject to attack for over a decade by

242
00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:01,840
Speaker 4: the Saudis, and even these naval launched from the Carrier

243
00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:06,000
Speaker 4: Eisenhower and from support bases ashore haven't been able to

244
00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:07,760
Speaker 4: eliminate the threat of the Hoothies.

245
00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,120
Speaker 2: What's it like going through the Suez Canal right now?

246
00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:12,920
Speaker 2: Because one of the reasons we wanted to talk to

247
00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:16,680
Speaker 2: you is, you know, you are speaking to people within

248
00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,240
Speaker 2: the trade. I imagine they are telling you some very

249
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:23,439
Speaker 2: interesting and exciting stories right now, which would be very

250
00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:27,320
Speaker 2: different to what going through the Suez Canal has historically been.

251
00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:27,480
Speaker 4: Like.

252
00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,959
Speaker 2: I remember reading this one book about global shipping. What

253
00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,200
Speaker 2: was it called, I think ninety Percent of Everything something

254
00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:38,080
Speaker 2: like that, and the author wanted to write about shipping

255
00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:40,320
Speaker 2: and she wanted to do a sort of first person narrative.

256
00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:42,840
Speaker 2: So she went on a container ship that went through

257
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,560
Speaker 2: the Suez Canal, and from what I remember, it was

258
00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:49,800
Speaker 2: really boring, literally dry as dust. Nothing happened, there's really

259
00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:51,959
Speaker 2: not that much to see, but it was still a

260
00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,120
Speaker 2: good book. But I think things must be different right now.

261
00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, that was Rose George's book, an excellent book on it.

262
00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,400
Speaker 4: It's usually pretty rude, but this is also the area

263
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:05,040
Speaker 4: where we saw Somali piracy. And so right now, when

264
00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,240
Speaker 4: you come out of the Suez Canal and you're heading southbound,

265
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:07,720
Speaker 4: you're heading for.

266
00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:08,480
Speaker 3: The Indian Ocean.

267
00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,200
Speaker 4: You'll get to a point about midway down the Red

268
00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:14,600
Speaker 4: Sea around the port of Jetta and Port Sudan, where

269
00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:17,120
Speaker 4: you'll stop and meet an offshore vessel. And what ships

270
00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:20,400
Speaker 4: are doing right now are taking on board security detachments.

271
00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,280
Speaker 4: These are private security detachments. They come on board and

272
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,800
Speaker 4: they will ride the ship out until you're about off

273
00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,520
Speaker 4: the coast of Oman, and then those crews will get

274
00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 4: off onto another supply boat and then they'll probably board

275
00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,120
Speaker 4: another vessel and go the other way. And those crews

276
00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:37,120
Speaker 4: do that for about two to three months. And these

277
00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:42,760
Speaker 4: security detachments provide guards against small boats, kind of against drones,

278
00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,400
Speaker 4: but they're really geared more to the smaller boat threat.

279
00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,120
Speaker 4: And right now what you're seeing is is you get

280
00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:51,160
Speaker 4: down to the very southern end of the Red Sea.

281
00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:52,920
Speaker 4: The southern Red Sea is like a funnel when you

282
00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,480
Speaker 4: get down to what's called the bob El Mendab and

283
00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,680
Speaker 4: you're sailing literally right along the coast of Yemen within

284
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,320
Speaker 4: sight of the coast of Yemen and men places. It's

285
00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,280
Speaker 4: about one hundred and some miles long, about one hundred

286
00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:04,960
Speaker 4: fifty miles long, and it's kind of a.

287
00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:06,200
Speaker 3: Shooting gallery right now.

288
00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:10,560
Speaker 4: What we've seen happen escalating since December is the Huthi

289
00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,520
Speaker 4: would take shots at vessels and it's very hard to hide.

290
00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:16,240
Speaker 4: Even if you turn off your ais. This is the

291
00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:19,920
Speaker 4: transponder ships have, you are clearly visible. And plus there

292
00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:23,160
Speaker 4: are vessels in the area that we believe are spotting,

293
00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:27,040
Speaker 4: either Iranian vessels or yemen vessels that are spotting. And

294
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,680
Speaker 4: lots of times these attacks take place and you're getting

295
00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:35,720
Speaker 4: calls from navy vessels on open channels to evade or

296
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:37,960
Speaker 4: turn around. So, for example, on January ninth, which was

297
00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:42,400
Speaker 4: probably the largest battle we've seen, the US pushed through

298
00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:45,880
Speaker 4: four US flag vessels. They came down through the region

299
00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:48,880
Speaker 4: they had been holding north of the area. They were

300
00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,440
Speaker 4: told to go ahead and sail through. They didn't have

301
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,280
Speaker 4: a direct escort. They were sailing under the protection of

302
00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,240
Speaker 4: the US Navy. But while they were sailing down when

303
00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,960
Speaker 4: the strike started, they received word from the British nation

304
00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:04,600
Speaker 4: that they needed to increase speed and escalate. And talking

305
00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:08,760
Speaker 4: with the crews on these ships, a couple of things came.

306
00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:08,640
Speaker 3: Through very clearly.

307
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,040
Speaker 4: Number one, it was three hours of really excitement. I

308
00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:13,800
Speaker 4: won't say the words they were using, but there was

309
00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:16,520
Speaker 4: a lot of stuff lying and they used some very

310
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,320
Speaker 4: good salty terms to explain it.

311
00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,360
Speaker 3: But they also wanted to thank the Navy crews.

312
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:23,520
Speaker 4: They said they would have not gotten through that without

313
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:25,960
Speaker 4: the effort of the US Navy and the other navies

314
00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:26,520
Speaker 4: that were there.

315
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:27,840
Speaker 3: But there were issues.

316
00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,479
Speaker 4: For example, in the US ships there was no secure communication.

317
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:33,000
Speaker 4: There was actually an instance on one ship where the

318
00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 4: Navy tried to call them on a satellite phone on

319
00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:37,600
Speaker 4: board the ship, but the ship had a series of

320
00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:39,480
Speaker 4: satellite phones and they called the wrong number.

321
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,600
Speaker 3: So communication wasn't great.

322
00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 4: And so again this is not a mission that's very

323
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:47,600
Speaker 4: high up in terms of the US Navy and other navies.

324
00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,560
Speaker 4: So practicing it doesn't really take a lot of time,

325
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:52,680
Speaker 4: and it's kind of showing right now.

326
00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,640
Speaker 1: Oh so these things like not having the right phone

327
00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,880
Speaker 1: number or not knowing like this is just a function

328
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 1: of this is sort of this is not something that's

329
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:04,919
Speaker 1: been in practice, not something that's anticipated. Were this to persist,

330
00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,760
Speaker 1: these things would presumably get smoothed over.

331
00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:10,800
Speaker 4: Well, I don't want to say the Navy doesn't practice,

332
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:14,479
Speaker 4: because they actually have organizations within their their structure that

333
00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,720
Speaker 4: does this. The problem is it's very low priority. You know,

334
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:23,119
Speaker 4: it doesn't get the attention and probably the resources it deserves.

335
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:25,840
Speaker 4: And there's also the perception that this was going to

336
00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:27,639
Speaker 4: go away pretty quick, that you know, we're going to

337
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 4: do a show of force, We're going to strike the

338
00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:31,840
Speaker 4: Houthi and that should clear it up. And what we've

339
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,760
Speaker 4: seen is the Houthi are very kind of being tenacious here.

340
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,520
Speaker 4: They keep shooting one missile and while the Navy will

341
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 4: make the point, well, they're not shooting twenty two missiles

342
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,960
Speaker 4: like they did on January ninth. If that one missile

343
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,800
Speaker 4: hits a ship, it's going to deter other vessels from

344
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:47,440
Speaker 4: going through.

345
00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,000
Speaker 1: Do you hear anything from the actual the people working

346
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:56,120
Speaker 1: on the ship or the captains about reluctance to work

347
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,479
Speaker 1: on ships that are taking this route. Has there been

348
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,480
Speaker 1: any concern from just sort of the pure safety of like, Okay,

349
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:05,680
Speaker 1: maybe the company deems it worthwhile to continue to take

350
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,920
Speaker 1: this route, but the safety of the crew.

351
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,440
Speaker 4: Well, one of the things that the crews will say

352
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 4: is they're fine going through. They know that there's risks

353
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,520
Speaker 4: involved in shipping in every day. What they want is

354
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,040
Speaker 4: to be compensated, you know, I mean again, ships crews

355
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:22,560
Speaker 4: are doing this and one of the things you saw

356
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,480
Speaker 4: early on is a lot of the foreign crews, for example,

357
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,919
Speaker 4: through their agreements, were able to get additional not just money,

358
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:31,679
Speaker 4: but you know, what they really wanted was, Hey, if

359
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:33,600
Speaker 4: something happens to me, I'm going to have insurance and

360
00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 4: I'm going to be covered by this, and you know,

361
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,399
Speaker 4: if I'm hurt, and worse, if I'm killed, you know,

362
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 4: I want to make sure my family at home. Ironically,

363
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,639
Speaker 4: the place I heard the most issues with was on

364
00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 4: US ships, where US ships have to deal, for example,

365
00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:50,560
Speaker 4: with multiple different unions, and different unions had different agreements

366
00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,120
Speaker 4: in place, and there was actually an issue recently where

367
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 4: two ships had to go through and they actually got

368
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,960
Speaker 4: turned around, two US flag ships. First time I've heard

369
00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,359
Speaker 4: that in a long time, that US ships were denied passage,

370
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:05,600
Speaker 4: but some of those crew were not yet given the agreement.

371
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:09,199
Speaker 4: Now the company has since worked out those agreements, but

372
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,159
Speaker 4: for the crew going through, they kind of like that

373
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:12,720
Speaker 4: in place before they get shot at.

374
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,960
Speaker 2: So we have seen shipping rates go up recently, but

375
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,680
Speaker 2: my impression is that a lot of the shipping rates

376
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 2: or you know, the shipping rate is sort of pre agreed,

377
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 2: contractually agreed some time ago, and yet we have seen

378
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:30,360
Speaker 2: this increase in costs. You described how the wartime insurance

379
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,840
Speaker 2: rate goes up. It seems fairly quickly. You have captains

380
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:38,640
Speaker 2: that are presumably wanting additional compensation for taking on this risk.

381
00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 2: How quickly and how much could shipping rates actually rise

382
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:45,200
Speaker 2: from here?

383
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 4: So you know what we saw during the height of

384
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,399
Speaker 4: the supply chain crisis. You see all those charts, that

385
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,680
Speaker 4: was the spot right, that's the rate you pay if

386
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:57,120
Speaker 4: you don't have a long term commitment in place. Most

387
00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,879
Speaker 4: shipping most containers, for example, are on long term t

388
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,639
Speaker 4: charters and so those you know, about seventy percent of

389
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,000
Speaker 4: the cargo it's moved is on long term. But ironically,

390
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 4: the route between Europe and Asia was up for renegotiation

391
00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:11,280
Speaker 4: as of January first, so right when this was taking place,

392
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,879
Speaker 4: we saw that happen. But even if you have a

393
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,600
Speaker 4: long term shipping route agreement, there are charges that can

394
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 4: be imposed on top of that, search charges for extra

395
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 4: fuel for port stays, and so a lot of company,

396
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 4: you know, a lot of companies that were shipping goods

397
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,120
Speaker 4: all of a sudden started getting notices is like, well,

398
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 4: my container's going to be one thousand dollars more than

399
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 4: I thought it was going to be. Well, that's because

400
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,119
Speaker 4: the company sat there and said, well fuel, I had

401
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,679
Speaker 4: to stop in South Africa and by really expensive fuel.

402
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 4: Plus we're not going to the port initially we were

403
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 4: going to drop your container off in. So we got

404
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,879
Speaker 4: to drop it off in a subport and it's got

405
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 4: to be moved over there. And so we saw the

406
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:50,000
Speaker 4: prices begin to escalate because the shipping companies tend to

407
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,639
Speaker 4: pass that cost on. And what you're seeing now is

408
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 4: even the long term rates are seeing readjustments because of that.

409
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 4: Plus the shipping companies have to re adjust their schedules,

410
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 4: you know, if you had a container ship that was

411
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 4: going through the Suez and stopping in the Med, that's

412
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,920
Speaker 4: not happening now. And now you're seeing ships stop at

413
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 4: other terminals, dumping their containers and reshuffling them. So the

414
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 4: ports at the entrance to the Med, Tangier and al

415
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,439
Speaker 4: Jacayers is getting a lot of business because you have

416
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 4: to reshuffle containers. And so now the freight rates are

417
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 4: changing that if you look at the freight rate charts

418
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,199
Speaker 4: right now, they kind of peaked and they've kind of

419
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 4: dipped down and now they're starting to stabilize at this point.

420
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 4: But we're also seeing impacts in other ways. So for example,

421
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:37,879
Speaker 4: the US freight rates get negotiated by May first, but

422
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 4: we're seeing freight rates increase to the United States. Why

423
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 4: because a couple of factors. If you're shipping containers from

424
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 4: Asia to Europe, I mean to Asia to North America,

425
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,399
Speaker 4: for example, well you may be shipping it.

426
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 3: You know, I don't want to go to LA and Long.

427
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 4: Beach anymore because of the issues with LA and Long

428
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 4: Beach that happened a couple of years ago. So I'm

429
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 4: going to put my containers on these new Neo Panama ships.

430
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 4: They go through the big lane of the Panama Canal

431
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 4: that open in twenty sixteen. But like we don't have

432
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 4: enough choke point issues Panama Canals. At low water levels,

433
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 4: we've seen a two thirds reduction in the number of

434
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 4: ships going through there. So now you've got this fully

435
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 4: loaded Panamac Neo Panamac ship. It arrives on the Pacific

436
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 4: side of the Panama Canal and they can't get through

437
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 4: because it draws too much water. Now I got to

438
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,959
Speaker 4: take three thousand boxes off rail them across Panama and

439
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 4: meet them on the other side.

440
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 3: That's a cost I didn't plan on.

441
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 4: That ship comes to the United States offloads, but instead

442
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 4: of going back the way it came because it doesn't

443
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 4: want to take a passage through the Panama Canal, It's

444
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 4: now going to head back to Asia through the Mediterranean

445
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 4: and the Suez Canal. But wait a minute, the HOOTHI

446
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 4: are there. Now I got to head around Africa, and

447
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,919
Speaker 4: so what you're seeing is a lot of surcharges and

448
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 4: extra charges and most importantly, delays in the movement of

449
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 4: goods that were not planned on.

450
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 1: I want to talk a little bit more about the

451
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 1: military response, but I you know, I imagine We could

452
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 1: do like a twenty episode series about the history and

453
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 1: founding of the US Navy, but we are just doing

454
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 1: you know, we have a thirty five minute podcast. Can

455
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 1: you just zoom out? You know, I've heard that the

456
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 1: US Navy is sort of originally created in part to

457
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 1: you know, to secure shipping against pirates, et cetera. Can

458
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: you talk a little bit about, you know, the history

459
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 1: and just the expectations globally for what the Navy is

460
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 1: expected to do anywhere when there is either a military

461
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 1: threat or a piracy threat to world trade.

462
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean two hundred and thirty years ago, this year,

463
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 4: seventeen ninety four, the Navy will basically create itself with

464
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 4: the Naval Act of that year, where they build six frigates,

465
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 4: one of which is still in commission today US Constitution

466
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,880
Speaker 4: up in Boston. Those ships were built specifically because the

467
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 4: state of Algiers had seized eleven American ships and we're

468
00:23:55,960 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 4: holding them hostage for basically tribute for the agreement with

469
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 4: the United States. So literally, the birth of the US

470
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 4: Navy is founded on an anti piracy and defend commercial shipping. Now, ironically,

471
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,679
Speaker 4: those ships aren't built in time to fix it. What

472
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 4: we go do is basically negotiate out a treaty without jeers,

473
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 4: and they released the vessels and we have an agreement.

474
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 4: But then fast forward a few years later, eighteen oh one,

475
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 4: the Shaw of Tripoli announces war with the United States

476
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 4: by having his men march down to the US consulate

477
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 4: and Tripoli and chop down the flagpole. And for five

478
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 4: years Thomas Jefferson has got a wage of war against

479
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 4: the Barbary pirates. We try an overwhelming military force, it

480
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 4: doesn't actually work. We try and overland military operations, which

481
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 4: the Marines immortalized in There to the Shores of Tripoli

482
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 4: in their hymn. But in truth, what we wind up

483
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:52,719
Speaker 4: doing is paying off the best shore are. We give

484
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 4: him thirty thousand dollars and we get a deal.

485
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 3: He releases some captured.

486
00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 4: Americans, including the crew of an American naval vessel, and

487
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 4: we get peace. Fast forward one hundred years, German U

488
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 4: boats start sinking American ships on the high seas, ten vessels,

489
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 4: sixty four crew members killed. That's the reason Woodrow Wilson

490
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 4: goes before Congress on April second, nineteen seventeen and wants

491
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 4: a declaration of war, and so the US Navy has

492
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 4: historically been a protector of trade, but usually it's a

493
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 4: protector of US flag shipping. But that all changes after

494
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,120
Speaker 4: World War Two. After World War two, when the Germans

495
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 4: and the Japanese are vanquished, the seas become this great

496
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:38,919
Speaker 4: open medium, this great blue ocean of commerce that takes place.

497
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 4: And one of the things that we see happen beyond

498
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 4: technological changes, supertankers and containerization, is we see the birth

499
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 4: of open registries the Marshall Islands, Panama, Liberia, so that

500
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 4: you can have lower shipping costs because those countries don't

501
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,439
Speaker 4: require a huge amount of overhead and taxes, and they

502
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 4: don't require because they don't have to pay for navies

503
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 4: because no one is threatening the ocean commerce. Now twenty

504
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 4: twenty three, here come the Houthi and they are threatening

505
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 4: ocean commerce. But you don't have the Panamanian, Liberian, Marshall

506
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 4: Island navvies show up because they don't basically exist. It

507
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 4: falls upon the US Navy, the Royal Navy, and these

508
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 4: other navies to defend the commerce because we move commerce

509
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 4: differently now. We don't move it on national ships, we

510
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 4: move it on international ships.

511
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,160
Speaker 2: Do you think you could see more of a reordering,

512
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 2: a shift, a wave from flags of convenience.

513
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 4: I think the thing you may see is not so

514
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 4: much that I would argue, because I think, you know,

515
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,400
Speaker 4: those ships are getting the protection that they need. I'm

516
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 4: what I'm concerned about with the Houthi, and what they're

517
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 4: doing is breaking up the idea of this international blue

518
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,719
Speaker 4: water where you can move goods freely. And what we

519
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 4: start to see is something that Bruce Jones talks about

520
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 4: in his great book To Rule the Waves, where we

521
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 4: start seeing the breakdown and creation of regional shipping because

522
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 4: people don't want to ship long distances, they want to

523
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 4: ship local distances. We're seeing that right now, for example

524
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,360
Speaker 4: in the l ANDNG trade where you have three big

525
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 4: players Australia Guitar and the United States. But now you know,

526
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,880
Speaker 4: we're really seeing that shift take place where the US

527
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 4: is providing most of their LNG now to Europe vice

528
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 4: Asia Guitars is not shipping to Europe as much. They're

529
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:25,880
Speaker 4: moving to provide their LNG to Asia. So my concern

530
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,439
Speaker 4: is that if we can't handle a threat like the Huthi,

531
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 4: and again we've seen multiple issues happen in the supply

532
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 4: chain Remember, the big difference you have now today than

533
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 4: ever before is not just the volume of trade. We've

534
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 4: gone from moving half a billion tons of cargo on

535
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 4: the world's oceans in nineteen fifty to twenty two billion

536
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 4: tons today. It's the velocity. And when you have something

537
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,679
Speaker 4: moving as fast and as large as that, all it

538
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 4: takes is a little you know, sand pebble on the

539
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 4: runway and you create a buff.

540
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 1: So when you're thinking about comparing this crisis versus say,

541
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 1: the Samali piracy that people talked a lot about a

542
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 1: decade ago, how much more is it is? The basically,

543
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:27,880
Speaker 1: as you say, the increased velocity of world trade since then,

544
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: I assume it's continued to grow basically magnifies the degree

545
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: of disruption.

546
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 4: Oh, I mean even since two thousand you've seen a

547
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 4: massive increase. But the Somali piracy was very limited. Remember

548
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 4: what Somali piracy was. It was an issue a sure

549
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 4: drove the Somalis to see and then what they were

550
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 4: doing was seizing vessels and holding them for ransom. It

551
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 4: was basically ransomware, you know what they were doing. They

552
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 4: would seize a vessel, bring in the Somali waters and

553
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 4: wait for a bag of money to fall from the

554
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 4: sky and then they would release the vessel and you

555
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 4: could interdict that by moving ships further at sea. We

556
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 4: saw navy patrols come up. And you know, the only

557
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 4: time you saw the US Navy, for example, take direct

558
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 4: action was when an American flag ship was captured, when

559
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 4: Marisk Alabama was captured and Captain Phillips was taken. Then

560
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 4: the US interseas because you have to save Tom Hanks.

561
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 4: He's a national treasure. You can't allow him to fall

562
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:23,479
Speaker 4: into the hands of the Somalis. But what's different now

563
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 4: is the Huthi aren't doing this for monetary reasons. They're

564
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 4: doing it for ideological reasons, and they're able to affect

565
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 4: the trade on an international level. The Somali piracy was

566
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 4: a blip on the radar. It didn't really affect world

567
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 4: trade at all. You didn't even see rates go up

568
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 4: very much because of that. This is much different.

569
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 1: You mentioned that the Indian Navy has gotten involved, which

570
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 1: sort of raises the question in a few multipolar world

571
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 1: arising other superpower powers, and the other big one is China,

572
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: and of course they're a major beneficiary of the trade

573
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: through this route, what is your expectation in the future,

574
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 1: will there be more sort of regional shipping police forces

575
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: to facto, Would you expect to see an expectation that

576
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 1: other larger countries that benefit directly from this type of

577
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: trade have more resources in the area.

578
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 4: So I was very surprised, for example, that the US

579
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 4: and other nations didn't put together some sort of un

580
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 4: element here to go in and do this. You know,

581
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 4: basically there was an argument that the US waited for

582
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 4: a UN action to before they struck. The fear you

583
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 4: have here is that nations will lack unilaterally. So talk

584
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 4: about the Indians for a second. Indians are greatly impacted

585
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 4: by this. India has seen a growth of trade to Europe.

586
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 4: And you know, India trade to Europe goes right through

587
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 4: the SEWAs Canal, and now if you've got to go

588
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 4: around Africa, that's like three four times the distance for

589
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 4: Indian trade to go. It's a massive change for them. Plus,

590
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,959
Speaker 4: Indian crews represent a big majority of the world's cruise

591
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 4: out there, and one of the things we've seen is

592
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 4: the Indian Navy come to the rescue of their crews.

593
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 4: The ship that was just hit, the Marlin Wanda, had

594
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 4: a largely Indian crew on board, and it was an

595
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 4: Indian Navy destroyer that actually came on board, fought the

596
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 4: fire and helped save the vessel. And you can see

597
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 4: an issue where we saw during the piracy issue where

598
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 4: India when they encountered pirates, did not really use a

599
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 4: lot of restraint in their forests. They were pretty clear

600
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 4: of using overt force to convince the Somali pirates not

601
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 4: to mess with ships with Indians on board, and the

602
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 4: fear is you can see that again. You also have

603
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 4: the issue with China. China has a overseas squadron based

604
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 4: down at Djibouti. We haven't seen much from them. They're

605
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 4: escorting their vessels in and out, very low key, but

606
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 4: you know, if there's an issue with a Chinese ship,

607
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 4: will China intervene. We've already seen a couple of Chinese

608
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 4: ships come under attack with no action by China. But

609
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 4: the fear is that you'll see regional navies, especially navies

610
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 4: that have a big impact on shipping one and I

611
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 4: think it's the big player to watch right now. They're

612
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 4: really interesting. They've come out in force after the attack

613
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 4: on a ship in the Arabian Sea pretty close to

614
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 4: Indian territorial waters.

615
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 2: I just want to press on the US military point

616
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 2: a little bit more because you did a fantastic job

617
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 2: of laying out the historic importance of protecting trade to

618
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 2: the US Navy. That was sort of the whole raison

619
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 2: debtch in many respects. However, we have seen this sort

620
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 2: of reluctance or at least a debate right now to

621
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 2: engage further with what's going on in this US. Is

622
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 2: that unwillingness on the part of the US to get

623
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 2: involved in yet another thorny military conflict or is it

624
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 2: I guess, inability in the sense that there are limits

625
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 2: to what nation military forces can actually do against what

626
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 2: is essentially guerrilla warfare.

627
00:32:55,720 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, this represents a historically, you know, common threat that

628
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 4: the Navy has faced in the past, but not one recently,

629
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 4: and so the Navy is not, I would argue, has

630
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 4: not done a great job of articulating what they're doing

631
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 4: in their mission. They haven't put a lot of press

632
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 4: on this in many ways, so I don't think they're

633
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 4: doing a great job in conveying exactly how important for

634
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 4: most Americans they see this as a European Asian conflict.

635
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 4: This is where the trade is it really, you know,

636
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 4: they're not contextualizing how this impacts the United States. And

637
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 4: my argument keep you know, I will keep saying, is

638
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 4: it's going to It just takes time to work its

639
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 4: way through the supply chain system. By the time you

640
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 4: feel it, it's too late to react. And that's one

641
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 4: of the issues here. I do think that the US

642
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 4: Navy and the military in some ways are being hamstrung

643
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 4: by the resources given to them. I think they were

644
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 4: delayed in doing anything when the Carnie had this very visible,

645
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 4: you know, intervention and save three ships back in early December.

646
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 4: I think about December ninth, that should have been a

647
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 4: key moment there. That should have been a moment of

648
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 4: where a decision was made about whether or not to

649
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 4: do a large scale protection. It took several you know,

650
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 4: several weeks after that to really announce it and then

651
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 4: to get it into full force. But this is a

652
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 4: historic mission for US and other navies. And the other

653
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:15,240
Speaker 4: element is really the slow reaction the US has gotten

654
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 4: from other allies. You've seen the British Navy, you've seen

655
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 4: the French and the Italians, but not a lot of

656
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 4: other navies coming in. I mean, the Indians are kind

657
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 4: of doing this separately. You haven't seen Asian navies, the Japanese,

658
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:29,880
Speaker 4: the Koreans come in. This really should be a unified

659
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 4: effort because this is an attack not on just American shipping,

660
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 4: but on world shipping. And to me, this is the

661
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 4: context of why this needs to be better articulated. And

662
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,800
Speaker 4: again the concept seems to be handed off to the military.

663
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 4: Let the military solve this problem when the root cause

664
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 4: of this problem goes back to what is happening in

665
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 4: Israel and Gaza. And until you fix that situation, until

666
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 4: you know, until there's Mideast peace, then you have a

667
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 4: problem with the Huthi. And how do you exert pressure

668
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 4: against the There was a story a few weeks ago

669
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,240
Speaker 4: about the shipping companies trying to buy off the Houthis.

670
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 4: I don't think you buy off the hoothies because they're

671
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 4: not in this for money. However, there is leverage that

672
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 4: can be exerted, either through Iran or some other forces

673
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 4: at play here that maybe you can convince them to

674
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 4: push back on the Huthi, or talk to the Israelis

675
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 4: and have them back off, and see if you can

676
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 4: get the Huthi to kind of diminish it. But it's

677
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 4: really hard to make that argument because you're seeing lives

678
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 4: lost in Palestine, whereas in the Red Sea all we're

679
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 4: seeing as of now is the loss of money.

680
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I'm glad you mentioned that, because it

681
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 1: struck me when you were giving your excellent two minute

682
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 1: entire history of the US Navy that even when you

683
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:50,279
Speaker 1: mentioned some of the key moments, it was actually some

684
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: sort of political resolution and not the show of might

685
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 1: itself that solved it, including you know, the original pirates

686
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 1: and the Shop Tripoli. It sounds like it's something other

687
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 1: than the force which announced it. So ultimately it sounds

688
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 1: like this is going to be a problem as long

689
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 1: as the underlying tensions in the area, the ideological issues

690
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 1: the ongoing war are there.

691
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, the Navy just recently had their Surface

692
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 4: Naval Association meeting, where I mean, there was a lot

693
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 4: of congratulations on the role of the Navy destroyers, which

694
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 4: have been doing a phenomenal job. Again, I talk to mariners,

695
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 4: They love the Navy for what they're doing. The problem is,

696
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 4: again you're not convincing the Huthi about this or the ships.

697
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:32,359
Speaker 4: It's the insurance companies and the insurance companies are going

698
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 4: to use the line from dumb and dumber, you know,

699
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 4: as long as there's a chance of them getting a hit.

700
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 4: You know, that means that we're going to have higher

701
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 4: war risk insurance and therefore it's going to make it

702
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 4: cost prohibitive to go through what we're seeing, for example,

703
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 4: up in the Red Sea right now with the rebirth

704
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 4: of this new trade going into Ukraine after the death

705
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 4: of the Black Sea Grain initiative, we're seeing ships going

706
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 4: up and back to the Ukraine. And that's seeing an

707
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 4: escalation or a de escalation in the war risk from

708
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 4: three percent down to one point twenty five. But that's

709
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 4: still high. But you're dealing with bulkships and smaller ones

710
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 4: which the cost isn't as much. Plus you have the

711
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:12,359
Speaker 4: Ukrainians working with insurance companies to underwrite that. We don't

712
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 4: see that right now, and that's another element that could

713
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 4: be done. But again, to underwrite war risk insurance for ships,

714
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 4: they have to be of your registry. The US isn't

715
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 4: going to underwrite ships under the Marshall Islands under Liberia probably,

716
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 4: although most of those ships can trace ownership back to

717
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 4: Western companies in the US, Europe, or even East Asia.

718
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 2: How long until the slow down? And I guess the

719
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 2: additional complexity that you've been talking about, how long until

720
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 2: that makes its way to US supply chains because so far,

721
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 2: you know, most people are talking about this as a

722
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 2: Europe or Asia specific problem, but as you point out,

723
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 2: it just takes some time to reverberate.

724
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, you're seeing that right now in Europe.

725
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 4: You've had a very kind of high visibility. Some manufacturers

726
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 4: tests and a few others had to shut down production

727
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:06,319
Speaker 4: because they're waiting to get parts to them. And you're

728
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:08,399
Speaker 4: seeing the impact of that also in the fact that,

729
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 4: well we'll just throw them on airplanes and send them over. Well,

730
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:14,759
Speaker 4: thirty three percent of the world's aviation fuel goes through

731
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 4: the Suez Canal, and now it's being diverted, and so

732
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 4: now even aviation has issues associated with it. It tends

733
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 4: to be weeks and where we're going to see it

734
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 4: is right after the beginning of February. Because what has

735
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 4: happened here is a lot of empty containers, which is

736
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 4: the most unsexy topic you can talk about as empty containers.

737
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 4: Empty containers have not been repositioned backed to Asia in

738
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 4: time to be reloaded and put on ships to leave

739
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 4: Asia before the Chinese New Year, before the second week

740
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 4: in February, which means that goods that should have been

741
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 4: sailing across this week and next week aren't going to

742
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 4: be there, which means now you're going to see them

743
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 4: about a month later. So we're going to see some delays,

744
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 4: and again we're not going to see shortages. We're not

745
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 4: gonna have a great toilet paper run that we had

746
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 4: during twenty twenty. But what you will see is a

747
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 4: little bit of a spike in inflation in terms of

748
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 4: transportation costs, a lot of disruptions. One of the things

749
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 4: that we did learn from twenty twenty, and a lot

750
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 4: of freight forwarders and smart people who went with companies

751
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 4: that do this professionally did was diversify how their goods

752
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 4: come in. So there was a lot of companies who

753
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 4: saw what was happening with the HOUTHI and sat there

754
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 4: and said, hang on, let me get my goods on

755
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 4: a container ship, and I'll go into La and Long

756
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 4: Beach right now, because even though I hate it, I'll

757
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,439
Speaker 4: go in there because I know they're going to arrive

758
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:37,919
Speaker 4: and I can get them in there and I'll pay

759
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 4: the rail because rail is looking for cargo right now.

760
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 4: So a lot of people began to make movements, but

761
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,760
Speaker 4: some didn't. And the ones who didn't see this coming

762
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 4: ahead of time, they're the ones.

763
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 3: Who are going to see that.

764
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 4: We're already seeing backlogs of ships, for example, start to

765
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,399
Speaker 4: pile up off of Savannah and some of the East

766
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 4: Coast ports.

767
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 1: You mentioned that empty containers are not the sexiest topic,

768
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: but I disagree. I think the very first episode Tracy

769
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,800
Speaker 1: and I ever did on supply chain disruptions at the

770
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 1: end of twenty twenty was sort of related to this

771
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: phenomenon of the ships coming from China to the US

772
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 1: dropping off their stuff, not having anything to ship back,

773
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 1: so they immediately turned around and then there were no

774
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:17,760
Speaker 1: more empty containers, and that was sort of the seeds.

775
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: So it's a big deal, all right. I just have

776
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 1: one last question, which is that you know, I'm a dad,

777
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:26,280
Speaker 1: and I'm well into my mid forties, and so by nature,

778
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 1: I have this sudden impulse to read more military history books.

779
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 1: What is a good book about the history of the

780
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 1: Navy that I should read.

781
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 4: Well, I would recommend Ian told six Frigates which it

782
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 4: literally talks about the birth of those six frigates. I

783
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 4: think Ian told does a great job. It is it

784
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 4: is kind of must reading because it covers that early period,

785
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,399
Speaker 4: the birth of the US Navy. But it's also about

786
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 4: trade because you learn about okay, I learned about that

787
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 4: issue with Algiers, but then you learn about the French

788
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 4: attacking our commerce in the Caribbean during what calls the

789
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 4: Quasi Wore then the War of eighteen twelve, which is

790
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 4: all about out commerce and the impressment of Americans because

791
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 4: you know, the US wants to trade with everybody, because

792
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 4: that's who we are, so we we we're trading with

793
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,719
Speaker 4: the British and the French during the French Revolution in

794
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 4: the Napoleonic War. Thomas Jefferson tries to, you know, avoid

795
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 4: this by passing something that the worst act ever passed

796
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 4: in the history of the US, the Non Intercourse Act,

797
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 4: which doesn't deal with what you think it does, but

798
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 4: it deals with shipping and not trading with both Britain

799
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:27,800
Speaker 4: and France.

800
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:29,439
Speaker 3: So I love Ian Tol's book.

801
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 4: I think he is one of the best. And then

802
00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 4: the last one I threw in there is one on

803
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 4: us shipping that I think is really it's a wonky one.

804
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 4: It's not a great read, but I think it's really

805
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 4: an important one called The bandon Ocean, which talks about

806
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 4: US maritime policy.

807
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 2: I am conscious that we only have a few minutes left,

808
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 2: so I just have one more question, what do you

809
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:52,879
Speaker 2: think of the Jones Act.

810
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:59,280
Speaker 4: No, somehow, somehow this is all going to be playing,

811
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 4: going to be blamed on the Jones Act. And I

812
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 4: just knew I wasn't gonna get out of a show

813
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 4: with you guys as a masochist.

814
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:10,840
Speaker 2: No, that was a joke. We have been meaning to

815
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 2: have you on for a Jones Act specific episode for

816
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,319
Speaker 2: literally years now. We got to get that done in

817
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:18,280
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four.

818
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 1: Joe, we will definitely do a proper Jones Act episode

819
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 1: one day.

820
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 3: Well, I appreciate it.

821
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 4: And actually you may hear about the Jones Act with

822
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 4: this because there's diesel ships. Oh, you're bringing diesel out

823
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:30,760
Speaker 4: of Asia heading to Europe, are going to take longer

824
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:32,720
Speaker 4: to get there. There's gonna be a real big desire

825
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 4: to pull diesel out of New England and send it

826
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 4: the Cross. And if you start stealing diesel from New

827
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 4: England to send to Europe. You're gonna have to get

828
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 4: that diesel to New England some other way, and that's

829
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 4: either by pipeline which is jammed, or those infamous Jones

830
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 4: Act tankers.

831
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: All right, Sale, thank you so much for coming on.

832
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 1: That was great. We really will have to do a

833
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 1: proper Jones Act episode. But this was an excellent context

834
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 1: in details about the current crisis. So thank you so

835
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 1: much for coming back on online.

836
00:42:58,320 --> 00:42:58,879
Speaker 3: Can't be clear.

837
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 4: John Conrad say, whatever you do, don't bring up the

838
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 4: Jones he said, He said, don't bring it.

839
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:05,279
Speaker 3: Just try to get through it without that.

840
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 2: Well, you stayed true to your promise. I brought it

841
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 2: to you, you eveen, And I.

842
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 3: Told John, I said, I said, there's no way it's

843
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 3: coming off. There's no way they can bring it up.

844
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 3: There's there's none. And then Tracy bring it up right

845
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 3: at the air. That's funny. I can't tell you how

846
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 3: it does. Laughing to the mic for a second.

847
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 1: I love talking to So we got to make that

848
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 1: Jones ch episode. That happens.

849
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 2: I know. I feel bad that we keep touting it

850
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 2: and it never happens.

851
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,720
Speaker 1: So funny because like we've never done it. The Jones

852
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 1: comes up all that times, I almost feel like we're associated.

853
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,359
Speaker 1: It's like that. And Onion futures, we've never done an

854
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 1: episode on that, even though we talk about them all

855
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:53,399
Speaker 1: the time.

856
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 2: I think the problem is the stakes are now so

857
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 2: high because we have you know, they have come up

858
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:02,560
Speaker 2: repeatedly for yours now and right. If we ever do

859
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 2: an episode, we want to do it in a big way,

860
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 2: or we want to do an event around it, and

861
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 2: we just haven't been able to make that happen yet.

862
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 2: But there are so many interesting things to pull out

863
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 2: of that conversation with sal I thought his pinning of

864
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 2: the time frame in which you might see some impact

865
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 2: on us shipping. I thought that was really interesting to

866
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 2: actually get a firm time period and the idea that well,

867
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 2: things might be messed up because containers have been going

868
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 2: empty again and Chinese New Year is coming up, so

869
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:37,360
Speaker 2: we'll definitely be watching that. And then I guess his

870
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:42,280
Speaker 2: explanation of just how the insurance actually works wartime insurance,

871
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:46,360
Speaker 2: and how quickly it seems some of those decisions are made.

872
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought that was really interesting in this idea

873
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 1: that like on each on each route, you buy the

874
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 1: insurance and sometimes it's up to one percent, and eventually

875
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 1: you know, it can jump to the point where just

876
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,759
Speaker 1: the math says, now between this it's too much and

877
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 1: the added fuel costs of taking a much longer route

878
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 1: are worth it. And how quickly that adjusts, and how

879
00:45:05,560 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 1: there's this club of insurers and they're always setting I

880
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 1: thought that was really interesting. I also did think it

881
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:13,800
Speaker 1: was really interesting that in his history of the Navy,

882
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:16,359
Speaker 1: like all of those sort of keep many of those

883
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 1: key moments he described, like in the end, it was

884
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 1: the political solution that ultimately took.

885
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 2: Care of the problem, right, and not a military.

886
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, that ultimately you need to address the underlying diplomatic crisis.

887
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 2: So peace in the Middle East.

888
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 1: Right, we're not gonna well this also, I mean this

889
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 1: broader phenomenon where the Huti's like this small military that

890
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 1: Saudi for years attacked and wasn't able to eliminate their force.

891
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 1: And this idea that he brought up that since World

892
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:51,839
Speaker 1: War Two there has been this generally stable expectation of

893
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:55,920
Speaker 1: global trade, but this idea that it could refragment, particularly

894
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:59,399
Speaker 1: small militaries are able to stand up to large militaries,

895
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 1: is like a really interesting long term right.

896
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 2: The regionalization of shipping. That was really interesting because again

897
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 2: you think about shipping, obviously it's the sort of global industry,

898
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:14,800
Speaker 2: but it's global in very specific ways, including those flags

899
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:18,759
Speaker 2: of convenience where where you can sail under a Liberian

900
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:22,640
Speaker 2: flag or something like that because you enjoy the benefits

901
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 2: of other governments that are going to protect strategically or

902
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 2: commercially important waterways.

903
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was great. And you know, I think people

904
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 1: talk about deglobalization or you know, bifurcation or whatever it is.

905
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:39,439
Speaker 1: But look, if you don't have this expectation any more

906
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 1: of and maybe you know it's not dead or anything,

907
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 1: but if this idea that it's getting easier and easier

908
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:49,760
Speaker 1: for small military forces to disrupt tray due to advances

909
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 1: and weaponry and drones, et cetera like that, then that

910
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:56,240
Speaker 1: does seem like implicitly a force for deglobalization.

911
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, shall we leave it there.

912
00:46:57,680 --> 00:46:58,399
Speaker 1: Let's leave it there.

913
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:01,480
Speaker 2: This has been another episode of the Odd Loots podcast.

914
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

915
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,320
Speaker 1: And I'm Joe Wysn'tthal. You can follow me at The

916
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 1: Stalwart follow sel Mrcagliano. His handle is Mercagliano s and

917
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 1: check out his show What's going On with Shipping that's

918
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:17,959
Speaker 1: on YouTube. Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carman Arman

919
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 1: Dashel Bennett at Dashbot and kel Brooks at Kelbrooks. Thank

920
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,720
Speaker 1: you to our producer Moses Ondam. For more Oddlogs content,

921
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 1: go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots. We have transcripts,

922
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:31,719
Speaker 1: blog and a newsletter and you can chat twenty four

923
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,919
Speaker 1: to seven with fellow listeners in the discord discord dot

924
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: gg slash odd lots. We have a defense channel in there,

925
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:42,360
Speaker 1: we have a transportation channel, so there should be plenty

926
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 1: of conversation about this episode.

927
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 2: And if you enjoy odd Thoughts, if you want us

928
00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 2: to finally do that Jones Act episode or event, then

929
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:53,800
Speaker 2: please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform.

930
00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 2: And remember, if you're a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen

931
00:47:57,120 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 2: to all our episodes ad free. Just connect to your

932
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:03,720
Speaker 2: Bloomberg account to Apple podcasts. Thanks for listening.