WEBVTT - NFL Week 7 Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 18) 0:00:08.200 --> 0:00:11.440 Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:11.480 --> 0:00:14.600 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:14.600 --> 0:00:16.720 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:19.720 It is time for our early look at next week's lines, 0:00:19.760 --> 0:00:22.040 and with me to break it all down is Sean Green, 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:25.800 the co creator and co host of the Sports Gambling podcast. 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:28.600 You can find him on Twitter at Shawn T. Green. Shawn, 0:00:28.640 --> 0:00:30.240 thanks for coming back on the show. How's it going? 0:00:30.480 --> 0:00:33.479 Oh man? Great? Thanks for having me. Yeah, kind of 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:37.320 a weird Week six, but yeah, looking forward to breaking 0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:38.519 down these weeks seven lines. 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:40.639 How was it for you? By the way, cause I'm 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:42.680 going to have full disclosure. I will talk about it 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:44.880 on our Thursday show where we make our actual picks. 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.080 But I hit all my picks that I listed on 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:50.159 the show. But I pretty much otherwise was terrible for 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:52.320 the week. I just did not have a good sense 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:54.640 for this week. Every time I almost tried to go 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:56.840 contrarian at times to be like, well this is what 0:00:57.080 --> 0:00:59.760 you know, almost against the public, but just wasn't really 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:02.080 working for me. How about you? Were you relatively on 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:03.840 point this week or yea? Really? 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:08.560 Yeah? So you know, my big moves as far as betting, 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:11.479 I you know, like the five picks for the NFL 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:15.559 Super Contest, I went, I went three and two, and 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:19.440 you know, kind of onto, like I think eleven and 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:23.000 four the last fifteen. But yeah, I mean I started 0:01:23.000 --> 0:01:25.319 off rough, but I feel like I'm kind of dialed in. 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:27.800 A couple of things threw me off this week. I 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:32.080 love that Steelers play. I'm kicking myself for not taking 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:35.440 more action on it. But yeah, and hit my lock 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:39.119 which was Seattle, so that was good. But the rest 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:41.520 the stuff, the stuff I didn't feel great about, I 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:43.920 was off on. But the stuff I felt really good 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:47.400 on I was hitting, So that's kind of that always 0:01:47.440 --> 0:01:48.000 feels good. 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:50.960 I'm kind of the opposite. Unfortunately in the Super Contest, 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:53.480 I went one and four this week, and I started 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:55.920 off like twelve and three and was just a marching. 0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:57.560 I don't know. I was just off this week. But 0:01:57.600 --> 0:01:59.800 we're gonna get back on track in the meantime. However, 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:02.480 first let's just take a look at all the week 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:04.760 seven lines on an early basis. Now, we're gonna be 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:08.200 using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. Unless 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:10.520 this is your first time listening to this podcast, you 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:13.640 know that the consensus odds are an aggregation of the 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:15.880 odds that are available in the market. As always, there 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:18.480 are going to be differences at the various sportsbooks, so 0:02:18.520 --> 0:02:21.280 make sure to shop around for the best odds. Also, 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:23.160 if you want to see how some of the top 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:26.120 sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet at 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:28.760 any given time, bettingpros dot Com is going to show 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:30.920 you that too. All right, chum, let's dive right in 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:34.280 here with the Chiefs at the Broncos on Thursday night. 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:36.480 The Chiefs currently laying three and a half. The over 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:38.760 under is at forty nine. I checked earlier today it 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:40.960 was at fifty, so it's dropped a bit. Two teams 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:42.920 kind of heading in opposite directions a bit here. The 0:02:42.960 --> 0:02:45.760 Chiefs coming off back to back losses, the Broncos back 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:47.880 to back wins. We're in Denver, it's a short week. 0:02:47.880 --> 0:02:48.639 How do you feel here? 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:53.440 Yeah, I mean, I guess I'm kind of surprised that 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:56.760 the chief spread wasn't a little higher. I mean, their 0:02:56.800 --> 0:03:00.440 history against the Broncos, their ats history, I thought they 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:03.639 would have opened it a little higher. But yeah, I 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:06.399 guess they're just kind of riding. I think there could 0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:09.200 be a little recency bias in this line because the 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:11.200 Chiefs have lost to in a row, the Broncos have 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:14.240 won two in a row. Are the Broncos really that 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:16.880 red hot? Are the Chiefs really that bad? I guess 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:19.320 we'll find out Thursday night. But I honestly I thought this. 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:21.760 If I had a guess this spread, I would have 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:23.720 thought they would make it a little bit higher and 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:25.239 put it closer towards six. 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:28.400 Honestly, I could not agree with you more. And I 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:30.880 get worried when I see line like that because I 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:33.080 feel like, you know, the Chiefs are generally been a 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:35.440 public team. I don't know if the if the books 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:37.760 are banking on the fact that maybe because they've lost 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:39.880 now the last two games, that maybe the public's going 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:42.120 to be off it. But this game to be screams 0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:44.440 take the Chiefs. And that always makes me a little word. 0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:46.280 And I assume they know that the public is going 0:03:46.360 --> 0:03:48.360 to hammer the Chiefs on it, and I think they 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:50.680 are in the early going here. I mean the Broncos. 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:54.560 The Broncos weren't as bad, you know, as an zero 0:03:54.560 --> 0:03:56.720 to four team that they started out because they were 0:03:56.760 --> 0:03:59.560 in a lot of those games, right, of course, but really, 0:03:59.600 --> 0:04:02.240 the Chiefs can score on anyone, it doesn't matter how 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:04.640 many injuries they have on the offensive side of the ball. 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:06.400 I'm not sure if Sammy Watkins is going to be 0:04:06.440 --> 0:04:09.520 back heel here, Tyreek Hill came back, they're running backs 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:11.840 whoever they use there. They're all healthy right now, lash 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:15.240 Damian Williams, right, Darrel Williams, so you know, and Mahomes 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:18.360 didn't seem that limited by the ankle that cropped up, 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:20.640 so they're gonna be able to put up points here. 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:23.920 And the Broncos have you know, Okay, great, you beat 0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:26.080 the Titans that are in disarray so much so that 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:29.320 they benched Marcus Mariotta in the beginning. And the Chargers, 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:32.279 you're kind of seeing here were kind of paper tigers 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:34.719 with how badly they were beaten last night. You mentioned 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:37.040 it with the Steelers, so it's not like they've been 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:40.000 overly impressive there. So for me, I completely agree with you. 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:43.760 I really expected this line to be higher. Thursday lines 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:46.360 don't usually move that much. We're recording on Monday afternoon. 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:48.760 They don't usually move that much from the time we record, 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:51.520 But if anything, I would expect it maybe to dip 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:53.599 a little bit in the Chiefs direction. But I'm a 0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:56.160 little worried because I had the same reaction that you did. 0:04:56.240 --> 0:04:59.040 So it is something where we're gonna watch. But I agree, 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:01.359 I expected it to be much higher, and I wouldn't 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:04.120 be surprised. If you like the Broncos, I'd wait, you know, 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:06.360 because I think I highly doubt it's going to get 0:05:06.360 --> 0:05:08.560 down to three or anything like that. If anything, it's 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:09.320 gonna get higher. 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:11.400 Yeah, the late money will probably push this up. 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:15.120 Yeah, I agree. Raiders at Packers here, Packers laying six 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:17.320 and a half over under at forty six and a half. 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:19.960 As I mentioned, we're recording this on Monday afternoon, that is, 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:23.680 before Monday night football. Let's assume going into this right now, 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:26.679 no major injuries coming for the Packers tonight. Let's also 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:29.839 assume that Devanta Adams does not play, because it sounds 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:32.080 like it's still a little bit of a long term injuries. 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:35.080 And I know wide receivers don't really move the line 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.200 all that much, but when we're thinking about it, I'm 0:05:37.200 --> 0:05:40.000 sure the odds makers are taking that into consideration. On 0:05:40.000 --> 0:05:42.160 the other side of the wall, Raiders are a little frisky, 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:46.200 you know, they might even becoming like a public team 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:49.040 a little bit. They're coming off the bye and off 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:53.200 of beating up on the Bears out in London. Packers 0:05:53.200 --> 0:05:55.120 are on a short week versus the Raiders on a 0:05:55.160 --> 0:05:56.560 buy How do you feel here? Six and a half 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:58.120 over under forty six and a half? 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:02.000 Yeah, I mean, I just think this is no respect 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:04.920 for the Raiders. By the book here, I would have 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:07.800 had this a little bit lower. And I'm a guy 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:10.280 who I talked a ton of crap about John Gurden 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:12.080 a ton of craft on this Raiders team. He doesn't 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:14.160 know what he's doing. This team's gonna be a disaster. 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:18.440 And they've looked pretty competent. I mean they beat the Bears, 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:21.760 they beat the Colts like those are quality wins in London, 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:25.480 in Indianapolis. I mean that that West Coast to London 0:06:25.520 --> 0:06:31.400 trip is insane. Yeah, I was surprised it's this high 0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:34.479 for the Raiders. And again, like you pointed out, the 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:38.240 rest disparity Monday to a bye week, that's a pretty 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:42.400 big difference. And yeah, I guess I'm this feels a 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:43.080 little high to me. 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:45.560 Honestly, No, it does to me too. I think that 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:50.039 odds makers probably just you know, the Packers are so public, 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:52.360 and I'm sure they just kind of take that into consideration, 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:54.720 right but I think right now, look, I don't want 0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:56.680 to take anything away from the Packers, you know, barring 0:06:56.800 --> 0:06:59.839 what they look like tonight. You know, I really hope 0:06:59.880 --> 0:07:01.600 they don't just completely come out and lay an egg, 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:04.560 because no, they've they've been good. You know, it's not 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:07.960 overly impressive without the Vonta Adams. You know, they ran 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:10.960 all over the Cowboys, not necessarily that that's gonna be 0:07:10.960 --> 0:07:13.320 the case, although again, the Raiders don't have a great 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:16.000 run defense right now. Vontez Berwick is now for the season. 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:18.640 You know, they've had injuries to their linebackers, so maybe 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:21.360 they're just thinking about that. And of course their Packers 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:24.000 are going to be home at Lambeau. But really, I mean, 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:26.760 coming off the bye versus coming off the short week, 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:29.200 that really makes me nervous. So I don't think we're 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:31.480 gonna get past the key number here of seven. But 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:33.560 I agree I kind of expected it to be a 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:35.480 little closer. My guess is this is where it ends up. 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:37.640 It has not moved, and again the Packers haven't played yet, 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:40.120 but it hasn't moved I don't think since the look aheadline, 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:42.560 so we're probably right on where it's gonna be. Let's 0:07:42.600 --> 0:07:45.880 move on to the Dolphins at the Bills. I can't 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:51.520 remember last time the Bills were favored by sixteen and 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:55.040 a half with an over under on thirty nine and 0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:56.840 a half. I do want on a record that on 0:07:56.960 --> 0:08:00.640 Thursday's show, I did pick the Dolphins to and I 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:03.320 was never worried about it, not for a second. I 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:05.840 don't know if I'm going to pick them to cover here. Look, 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:08.600 we actually don't even know who the starting quarterback is 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:11.240 at the moment for the Dolphins. I think they came 0:08:11.240 --> 0:08:14.480 out and basically said that we still view Josh Rosen 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:18.280 as the starter. So maybe that's the case. Ryan Fitzpatrick 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:22.000 certainly looked a little better this week against the Redskins. Meanwhile, 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:25.760 the Bills look I undersold their defense completely. I refuse 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:27.640 to buy into it for like the first three games, 0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:30.680 but it is absolutely legitimate. They're coming off the buye. 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:33.480 They may get Devin Singletary back. I don't know what 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:35.719 to do with these giant lines, So I mean, what 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:38.480 are you doing here? Bills sixteen and a half over 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:40.120 under thirty nine and a half at home. 0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:43.360 Yeah, I mean, it's crazy the NFL we're living in, 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:47.760 where these giant spreads keep covering. It doesn't make sense 0:08:47.800 --> 0:08:50.760 because normally in the NFL it's such there's so much parody, 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:53.400 and you get these giant numbers, you just blindly take them. 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:57.160 But they've actually the giant numbers have been good for 0:08:57.200 --> 0:08:59.600 the favorites. And you mentioned when one is the last 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:02.880 time the Bills have been favored by this much? I 0:09:02.920 --> 0:09:06.560 actually looked it up. I saw online it was the 0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:09.840 regular season opener back in nineteen ninety three. They were 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:12.959 fourteen point favorites. So this is insane. 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:15.080 This is why I bring you on the podcast, Okay, 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:17.240 because you're gonna do the research and look that stuff 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:18.720 up for me. Well, I mean, what do you think? 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:20.880 All right? Right now you have to make a call. 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:22.160 I'm not going to really hold you to it. But 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:24.560 if you had to make a call, is this line 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:26.679 something that you would be going for the Bills or what? 0:09:27.240 --> 0:09:30.800 Yeah? And I think you gotta take the Bills here 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:34.960 even though this because what we're dealing with here, the 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:38.720 Dolphins their historical anomaly, right, I mean, think about it. 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:41.800 The Redskins fired their coach last week and they were 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:44.720 three and a half point road favorites. I tried to 0:09:44.760 --> 0:09:47.880 find the research on that. I couldn't find another time 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:50.679 when someone fired the team was going so bad they 0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:53.520 fired their coach, and yet they were laying points on 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:58.000 the road. Insane. And this Dolphins team doesn't travel. This 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:01.280 Bill's defense is legit. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:03.240 that this score was like seventeen to nothing. 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:06.440 Well what you say, by the way, just to make 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:09.079 that clear, I do like the under I realized it's 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:10.840 a low number, thirty nine and a half. But I 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:13.160 mean the Dolphins, I can't imagine that they're going to 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:15.240 be able to do anything. I mean, the Redskins have 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:17.920 a terrible defense. Put aside whatever you want to say 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:20.559 about case Keenum getting back in there and focusing on 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.120 the run and Adrian Peterson and Terry mclaur and all 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:25.280 that stuff. They have a terrible defense. Okay, they're not 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:28.400 able to really, you know, hold anybody in check. And 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:31.560 you know, the Dolphins got to sixteen points by replacing 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:35.240 Rosen with fitzmagic over there, but they're not what are 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:37.360 they going to put up? You know, maybe ten? You 0:10:37.440 --> 0:10:39.560 might give them a touchdown if everything breaks right. And 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:42.960 you know, the Bills, while they're certainly a competent football team, 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:45.000 they're not an offensive juggernaut. I don't care who the 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:46.959 defense is on the other side. So thirty nine and 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:48.360 a half I kind of like the under here. 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:50.920 Yeah, I mean, look just look at what that Patriots 0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:54.160 team when they went into Buffalo. Now granted, this Pats team, 0:10:54.360 --> 0:10:56.760 as far as the offense isn't firing on all cylinders, 0:10:56.760 --> 0:10:59.400 but they really struggled to put up points in a 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:03.079 you know, in Buffalo where they've traditionally had success of 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:04.800 being able to score on the Bills. And I think 0:11:04.840 --> 0:11:08.240 it just shows how good this Bills defense is. 0:11:08.679 --> 0:11:10.800 Yeah. Well, if for me, I mean I lean the 0:11:10.880 --> 0:11:12.840 under and I lean the Bills. I mean I I 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:15.080 you know, not by a strong mount just because I 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:16.880 don't think the Bills are really the type of team 0:11:17.000 --> 0:11:18.920 is gonna put up twenty four points, you know, in 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:21.079 any even weak or anything like that. So the sixteen 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:23.120 and a half is a lot. But you know what, 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:25.760 I made my money banging on the Dolphins to cover 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:28.240 they covered against the Redskins, and I think I'm moving 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:30.600 on from them, So let's also move on to two. 0:11:30.840 --> 0:11:34.599 Kind of dumpster fire of teams over here, Rams at Falcons. 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:37.240 Rams are currently laying three and a half. The early 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:39.000 line was three, so it's moved a little bit in 0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:41.200 favor of the Rams. The over under here is at 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:44.680 a whopping fifty three. I mean, look, the Falcons offense, 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:48.480 it's great, Matt Ryan is playing great. The defense cannot 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:52.400 stop anyone whatsoever. Meanwhile, Jared Goff is coming off a 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:55.400 game where he threw for seventy eight yards against the 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:58.080 forty nine ers. The offense looks completely out of sorts. 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.679 We don't know about whether Todd Girl or Key to 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:03.400 Leave is gonna play here. This feels like to me 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:06.240 a spot for the Rams to kind of get right 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:08.640 a little bit. I think the Falcons are just kind 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:10.840 of done until dan Quinn is fired. What do you think? 0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:14.960 Yeah, I mean this Falcons team, they've really really checked out. 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:18.760 I mean, yeah, they're they're figuring out ways to lose 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:22.000 in all different fashions. You're totally right on a possible 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:25.680 get right game for this Rams team. This offense, they're 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:28.320 in a dome going up against a horrible defense. If 0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:30.800 Jared Goff can't get it going here, I just don't 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:32.959 think you can get it going three and a half 0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:35.880 as far as the number probably makes sense. But I 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:38.719 wouldn't be surprised if this gets bet up a little bit, 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:42.840 because I mean, the Falcons have just looked horrible any scenario, 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:45.679 and even ATS, I don't think they can give this 0:12:46.080 --> 0:12:50.040 Falcons team enough points. But yeah, people are out on golf, 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:52.400 and I've made fun of golf for a long time. 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:54.920 Now I say, I say I'm the owner of Jared 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:57.920 Goff Sucks Island because. 0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:00.360 I don't know if it's an island anymore. Yeah, you know, 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:01.840 a continent at this point. 0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:05.280 Yeah, it's an island in the same way that Australia 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:09.079 is an island or whatever. It's just growing. But yeah, 0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:13.760 I totally agree Cup. I think and golf they get 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:16.600 going here, So I think I think this actually may 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:19.000 go up, and if you like the Rams, you may 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:21.240 be able to find a minus three somewhere and you 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:22.320 may want to bet that now. 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:24.560 And I'm not kidding. I mean I'd take it at 0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:27.280 three and a half and not be overly concerned about it. 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.040 I think if you like the Rams getting now, I 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:31.560 don't think it's going back to three. Nobody in their right, 0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:33.839 mind can back Atlanta at this point. A lot of 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:37.080 people did, myself included back then, you know, the spread went. 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:39.920 I believe they were originally laying one to the Cardinals. 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:41.520 Then they wound up laying two and a half by 0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:43.839 the time it closed, and that of course didn't go well. 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:46.000 Although if Matt Brian had hit you know, an extra point, 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:49.040 perhaps they would have done it. But in the end, 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:52.040 this look, the Rams have to get right. I get 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.680 there's a blueprint on them right now about how to 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:57.680 kind of contain them, But in the end you got 0:13:57.679 --> 0:13:59.839 to get pressure on goth to make them uncomfortable, and 0:13:59.840 --> 0:14:01.439 I just don't think the Falcons are going to be 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:02.880 able to do that. So I do think you know, 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:04.760 I get that it's an away game, But if you 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:07.760 like the Rams personally as I do, I think i'd 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:09.280 get in on it now because it's not going to 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:11.439 get lower. I don't think it's going back to three. 0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:13.080 If you can get a three, get in now. But 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:15.120 if you like them also, I think it's a better 0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:17.400 chance that it rises, you know, more like Rams four 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:19.240 could close at four and a half or something like that, 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:20.520 as opposed to three and a half. 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:23.360 Yeah, I mean there's a blueprint out on Jared Goff, 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:25.800 but I don't trust the Atlanta Falcons to figure out 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:26.920 any sort of blueprint. 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.360 Yeah, no, absolutely. Let's move on to the Vikings at 0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:33.600 the Lions. Really interesting game. The Vikings here are laying 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:36.320 one the over unders at forty four. Again, we have 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:38.640 not seen how the Lions are going to look tonight, 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:42.280 but they've been pretty impressive. I mean, they could easily 0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:45.440 be four to oh heading into tonight's game. They've been 0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:49.120 doing it with all around solid play on both sides 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:51.440 of the ball. On the other side, the Vikings kind 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:53.560 of look like they're getting right a little bit, look 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:56.120 to be tightening the ship despite the fact that everybody is, 0:14:56.240 --> 0:14:58.680 you know, complaining and everything like that. The passing game 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.400 gets going a little bit into admittedly really soft matchups 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:05.920 against the Giants and the Eagles. Eagles have a fine defense, 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:09.080 but it's all about stopping the run. They're really vulnerable 0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:11.800 in their secondary to essentially pick them here, Vikings saying 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:13.440 one over underd forty four. What do you think? 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:18.040 Yeah, I mean, I think this spread is probably a 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:21.680 little inflated on the Viking side because everyone saw Kirk 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:24.120 Cousins go off and they're like, oh, Kirk Cousins, good 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.080 is good. Yeah, let's hop on the Kirk Cousins bandwagon. 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:30.000 You're probably to me, it felt like a little inflated. 0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:32.880 I mean, I'm a diehard Eagles fan, and I was 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:36.120 seriously worried about our cornerbacks going into that game. I mean, 0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:39.080 they just couldn't cover. I mean, it was really that simple. 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:42.120 And Kirk Cousins got the touchdowns, he got it done. 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:44.800 But I do feel like this is a little inflated. 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:48.320 I think if the Lions have a competitive game, or 0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:51.520 if the Lions win, you could see this definitely switch 0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:55.280 to Lions even I mean again, I wouldn't. I would 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:59.000 have set this line closer to Lions minus three, because 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:03.000 I think these are two pretty successful teams, pretty solid 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:05.680 teams so far this year, both Dome teams. It's a 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:11.160 division matchup. I just don't know what what I've seen 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:14.880 that makes the Viking so strong to be this much 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:16.880 of a or just to be a road favorite in 0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:17.680 the division game. 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:19.920 I feel like it's I feel like it's a little 0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:23.000 bit of undervaluing the Lions, to be honest, generally, and 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:24.760 I feel like the bookmakers have done that all year. 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:27.440 I mean the Packers lines, and I think it opened 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:30.280 at minus six. It might have closed at minus four 0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:34.320 or something like that. Before that, you know, against the Chiefs, 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:37.280 you know, every everybody was all over the Chiefs, I 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:39.520 guess on that one, and the Lions wound up covering. 0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:41.800 So I kind of feel like the Lions still aren't 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:43.880 quite getting the respect they deserve. I don't. I don't 0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:46.280 know necessarily if I agree that it should be the 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.720 Lions favored by three, this does feel much more like 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:51.680 a pick em to me, and I think you'd agree. 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.040 You don't. You wouldn't expect the line to actually get 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:55.120 anywhere close to the right. 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:57.360 I mean, no, no, no, I'm just saying in my head, 0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:01.000 these teams feel closer to even, and especially in the 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:06.560 division matchup. Yeah, I think it would. On a neutral field, 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:10.119 I guess I would probably have the Vikings by maybe 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:12.960 a point, so then you factor in home field. But 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:15.400 you're right, I don't think the number will actually move 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:19.160 to that. So yeah, if you like the Vikings, maybe 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:22.840 you're right, it probably gets to a pick. But yeah, 0:17:22.960 --> 0:17:25.399 a lot of that'll determine on what happens tonight. 0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:27.159 Yeah, in the end, this game is going to be 0:17:27.200 --> 0:17:28.879 about who you think is going to win. Before we 0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:31.120 move on, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor 0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:34.480 of today's show, bet MGM. You know about betmgm already, 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:37.480 and in particular the bet mgm Sports App because it's 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:40.239 the easiest and best way to place a bet. 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