Speaker 1: Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady.
Speaker 1: It is time for our early look at next week's lines,
Speaker 1: and with me to break it all down is Sean Green,
Speaker 1: the co creator and co host of the Sports Gambling podcast.
Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at Shawn T. Green. Shawn,
Speaker 1: thanks for coming back on the show. How's it going?
Speaker 2: Oh man? Great? Thanks for having me. Yeah, kind of
Speaker 2: a weird Week six, but yeah, looking forward to breaking
Speaker 2: down these weeks seven lines.
Speaker 1: How was it for you? By the way, cause I'm
Speaker 1: going to have full disclosure. I will talk about it
Speaker 1: on our Thursday show where we make our actual picks.
Speaker 1: But I hit all my picks that I listed on
Speaker 1: the show. But I pretty much otherwise was terrible for
Speaker 1: the week. I just did not have a good sense
Speaker 1: for this week. Every time I almost tried to go
Speaker 1: contrarian at times to be like, well this is what
Speaker 1: you know, almost against the public, but just wasn't really
Speaker 1: working for me. How about you? Were you relatively on
Speaker 1: point this week or yea? Really?
Speaker 2: Yeah? So you know, my big moves as far as betting,
Speaker 2: I you know, like the five picks for the NFL
Speaker 2: Super Contest, I went, I went three and two, and
Speaker 2: you know, kind of onto, like I think eleven and
Speaker 2: four the last fifteen. But yeah, I mean I started
Speaker 2: off rough, but I feel like I'm kind of dialed in.
Speaker 2: A couple of things threw me off this week. I
Speaker 2: love that Steelers play. I'm kicking myself for not taking
Speaker 2: more action on it. But yeah, and hit my lock
Speaker 2: which was Seattle, so that was good. But the rest
Speaker 2: the stuff, the stuff I didn't feel great about, I
Speaker 2: was off on. But the stuff I felt really good
Speaker 2: on I was hitting, So that's kind of that always
Speaker 2: feels good.
Speaker 1: I'm kind of the opposite. Unfortunately in the Super Contest,
Speaker 1: I went one and four this week, and I started
Speaker 1: off like twelve and three and was just a marching.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I was just off this week. But
Speaker 1: we're gonna get back on track in the meantime. However,
Speaker 1: first let's just take a look at all the week
Speaker 1: seven lines on an early basis. Now, we're gonna be
Speaker 1: using the consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. Unless
Speaker 1: this is your first time listening to this podcast, you
Speaker 1: know that the consensus odds are an aggregation of the
Speaker 1: odds that are available in the market. As always, there
Speaker 1: are going to be differences at the various sportsbooks, so
Speaker 1: make sure to shop around for the best odds. Also,
Speaker 1: if you want to see how some of the top
Speaker 1: sports betting experts are leaning on any given bet at
Speaker 1: any given time, bettingpros dot Com is going to show
Speaker 1: you that too. All right, chum, let's dive right in
Speaker 1: here with the Chiefs at the Broncos on Thursday night.
Speaker 1: The Chiefs currently laying three and a half. The over
Speaker 1: under is at forty nine. I checked earlier today it
Speaker 1: was at fifty, so it's dropped a bit. Two teams
Speaker 1: kind of heading in opposite directions a bit here. The
Speaker 1: Chiefs coming off back to back losses, the Broncos back
Speaker 1: to back wins. We're in Denver, it's a short week.
Speaker 1: How do you feel here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I guess I'm kind of surprised that
Speaker 2: the chief spread wasn't a little higher. I mean, their
Speaker 2: history against the Broncos, their ats history, I thought they
Speaker 2: would have opened it a little higher. But yeah, I
Speaker 2: guess they're just kind of riding. I think there could
Speaker 2: be a little recency bias in this line because the
Speaker 2: Chiefs have lost to in a row, the Broncos have
Speaker 2: won two in a row. Are the Broncos really that
Speaker 2: red hot? Are the Chiefs really that bad? I guess
Speaker 2: we'll find out Thursday night. But I honestly I thought this.
Speaker 2: If I had a guess this spread, I would have
Speaker 2: thought they would make it a little bit higher and
Speaker 2: put it closer towards six.
Speaker 1: Honestly, I could not agree with you more. And I
Speaker 1: get worried when I see line like that because I
Speaker 1: feel like, you know, the Chiefs are generally been a
Speaker 1: public team. I don't know if the if the books
Speaker 1: are banking on the fact that maybe because they've lost
Speaker 1: now the last two games, that maybe the public's going
Speaker 1: to be off it. But this game to be screams
Speaker 1: take the Chiefs. And that always makes me a little word.
Speaker 1: And I assume they know that the public is going
Speaker 1: to hammer the Chiefs on it, and I think they
Speaker 1: are in the early going here. I mean the Broncos.
Speaker 1: The Broncos weren't as bad, you know, as an zero
Speaker 1: to four team that they started out because they were
Speaker 1: in a lot of those games, right, of course, but really,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs can score on anyone, it doesn't matter how
Speaker 1: many injuries they have on the offensive side of the ball.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if Sammy Watkins is going to be
Speaker 1: back heel here, Tyreek Hill came back, they're running backs
Speaker 1: whoever they use there. They're all healthy right now, lash
Speaker 1: Damian Williams, right, Darrel Williams, so you know, and Mahomes
Speaker 1: didn't seem that limited by the ankle that cropped up,
Speaker 1: so they're gonna be able to put up points here.
Speaker 1: And the Broncos have you know, Okay, great, you beat
Speaker 1: the Titans that are in disarray so much so that
Speaker 1: they benched Marcus Mariotta in the beginning. And the Chargers,
Speaker 1: you're kind of seeing here were kind of paper tigers
Speaker 1: with how badly they were beaten last night. You mentioned
Speaker 1: it with the Steelers, so it's not like they've been
Speaker 1: overly impressive there. So for me, I completely agree with you.
Speaker 1: I really expected this line to be higher. Thursday lines
Speaker 1: don't usually move that much. We're recording on Monday afternoon.
Speaker 1: They don't usually move that much from the time we record,
Speaker 1: But if anything, I would expect it maybe to dip
Speaker 1: a little bit in the Chiefs direction. But I'm a
Speaker 1: little worried because I had the same reaction that you did.
Speaker 1: So it is something where we're gonna watch. But I agree,
Speaker 1: I expected it to be much higher, and I wouldn't
Speaker 1: be surprised. If you like the Broncos, I'd wait, you know,
Speaker 1: because I think I highly doubt it's going to get
Speaker 1: down to three or anything like that. If anything, it's
Speaker 1: gonna get higher.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the late money will probably push this up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. Raiders at Packers here, Packers laying six
Speaker 1: and a half over under at forty six and a half.
Speaker 1: As I mentioned, we're recording this on Monday afternoon, that is,
Speaker 1: before Monday night football. Let's assume going into this right now,
Speaker 1: no major injuries coming for the Packers tonight. Let's also
Speaker 1: assume that Devanta Adams does not play, because it sounds
Speaker 1: like it's still a little bit of a long term injuries.
Speaker 1: And I know wide receivers don't really move the line
Speaker 1: all that much, but when we're thinking about it, I'm
Speaker 1: sure the odds makers are taking that into consideration. On
Speaker 1: the other side of the wall, Raiders are a little frisky,
Speaker 1: you know, they might even becoming like a public team
Speaker 1: a little bit. They're coming off the bye and off
Speaker 1: of beating up on the Bears out in London. Packers
Speaker 1: are on a short week versus the Raiders on a
Speaker 1: buy How do you feel here? Six and a half
Speaker 1: over under forty six and a half?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I just think this is no respect
Speaker 2: for the Raiders. By the book here, I would have
Speaker 2: had this a little bit lower. And I'm a guy
Speaker 2: who I talked a ton of crap about John Gurden
Speaker 2: a ton of craft on this Raiders team. He doesn't
Speaker 2: know what he's doing. This team's gonna be a disaster.
Speaker 2: And they've looked pretty competent. I mean they beat the Bears,
Speaker 2: they beat the Colts like those are quality wins in London,
Speaker 2: in Indianapolis. I mean that that West Coast to London
Speaker 2: trip is insane. Yeah, I was surprised it's this high
Speaker 2: for the Raiders. And again, like you pointed out, the
Speaker 2: rest disparity Monday to a bye week, that's a pretty
Speaker 2: big difference. And yeah, I guess I'm this feels a
Speaker 2: little high to me.
Speaker 1: Honestly, No, it does to me too. I think that
Speaker 1: odds makers probably just you know, the Packers are so public,
Speaker 1: and I'm sure they just kind of take that into consideration,
Speaker 1: right but I think right now, look, I don't want
Speaker 1: to take anything away from the Packers, you know, barring
Speaker 1: what they look like tonight. You know, I really hope
Speaker 1: they don't just completely come out and lay an egg,
Speaker 1: because no, they've they've been good. You know, it's not
Speaker 1: overly impressive without the Vonta Adams. You know, they ran
Speaker 1: all over the Cowboys, not necessarily that that's gonna be
Speaker 1: the case, although again, the Raiders don't have a great
Speaker 1: run defense right now. Vontez Berwick is now for the season.
Speaker 1: You know, they've had injuries to their linebackers, so maybe
Speaker 1: they're just thinking about that. And of course their Packers
Speaker 1: are going to be home at Lambeau. But really, I mean,
Speaker 1: coming off the bye versus coming off the short week,
Speaker 1: that really makes me nervous. So I don't think we're
Speaker 1: gonna get past the key number here of seven. But
Speaker 1: I agree I kind of expected it to be a
Speaker 1: little closer. My guess is this is where it ends up.
Speaker 1: It has not moved, and again the Packers haven't played yet,
Speaker 1: but it hasn't moved I don't think since the look aheadline,
Speaker 1: so we're probably right on where it's gonna be. Let's
Speaker 1: move on to the Dolphins at the Bills. I can't
Speaker 1: remember last time the Bills were favored by sixteen and
Speaker 1: a half with an over under on thirty nine and
Speaker 1: a half. I do want on a record that on
Speaker 1: Thursday's show, I did pick the Dolphins to and I
Speaker 1: was never worried about it, not for a second. I
Speaker 1: don't know if I'm going to pick them to cover here. Look,
Speaker 1: we actually don't even know who the starting quarterback is
Speaker 1: at the moment for the Dolphins. I think they came
Speaker 1: out and basically said that we still view Josh Rosen
Speaker 1: as the starter. So maybe that's the case. Ryan Fitzpatrick
Speaker 1: certainly looked a little better this week against the Redskins. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Bills look I undersold their defense completely. I refuse
Speaker 1: to buy into it for like the first three games,
Speaker 1: but it is absolutely legitimate. They're coming off the buye.
Speaker 1: They may get Devin Singletary back. I don't know what
Speaker 1: to do with these giant lines, So I mean, what
Speaker 1: are you doing here? Bills sixteen and a half over
Speaker 1: under thirty nine and a half at home.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's crazy the NFL we're living in,
Speaker 2: where these giant spreads keep covering. It doesn't make sense
Speaker 2: because normally in the NFL it's such there's so much parody,
Speaker 2: and you get these giant numbers, you just blindly take them.
Speaker 2: But they've actually the giant numbers have been good for
Speaker 2: the favorites. And you mentioned when one is the last
Speaker 2: time the Bills have been favored by this much? I
Speaker 2: actually looked it up. I saw online it was the
Speaker 2: regular season opener back in nineteen ninety three. They were
Speaker 2: fourteen point favorites. So this is insane.
Speaker 1: This is why I bring you on the podcast, Okay,
Speaker 1: because you're gonna do the research and look that stuff
Speaker 1: up for me. Well, I mean, what do you think?
Speaker 1: All right? Right now you have to make a call.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to really hold you to it. But
Speaker 1: if you had to make a call, is this line
Speaker 1: something that you would be going for the Bills or what?
Speaker 2: Yeah? And I think you gotta take the Bills here
Speaker 2: even though this because what we're dealing with here, the
Speaker 2: Dolphins their historical anomaly, right, I mean, think about it.
Speaker 2: The Redskins fired their coach last week and they were
Speaker 2: three and a half point road favorites. I tried to
Speaker 2: find the research on that. I couldn't find another time
Speaker 2: when someone fired the team was going so bad they
Speaker 2: fired their coach, and yet they were laying points on
Speaker 2: the road. Insane. And this Dolphins team doesn't travel. This
Speaker 2: Bill's defense is legit. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised
Speaker 2: that this score was like seventeen to nothing.
Speaker 1: Well what you say, by the way, just to make
Speaker 1: that clear, I do like the under I realized it's
Speaker 1: a low number, thirty nine and a half. But I
Speaker 1: mean the Dolphins, I can't imagine that they're going to
Speaker 1: be able to do anything. I mean, the Redskins have
Speaker 1: a terrible defense. Put aside whatever you want to say
Speaker 1: about case Keenum getting back in there and focusing on
Speaker 1: the run and Adrian Peterson and Terry mclaur and all
Speaker 1: that stuff. They have a terrible defense. Okay, they're not
Speaker 1: able to really, you know, hold anybody in check. And
Speaker 1: you know, the Dolphins got to sixteen points by replacing
Speaker 1: Rosen with fitzmagic over there, but they're not what are
Speaker 1: they going to put up? You know, maybe ten? You
Speaker 1: might give them a touchdown if everything breaks right. And
Speaker 1: you know, the Bills, while they're certainly a competent football team,
Speaker 1: they're not an offensive juggernaut. I don't care who the
Speaker 1: defense is on the other side. So thirty nine and
Speaker 1: a half I kind of like the under here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look just look at what that Patriots
Speaker 2: team when they went into Buffalo. Now granted, this Pats team,
Speaker 2: as far as the offense isn't firing on all cylinders,
Speaker 2: but they really struggled to put up points in a
Speaker 2: you know, in Buffalo where they've traditionally had success of
Speaker 2: being able to score on the Bills. And I think
Speaker 2: it just shows how good this Bills defense is.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, if for me, I mean I lean the
Speaker 1: under and I lean the Bills. I mean I I
Speaker 1: you know, not by a strong mount just because I
Speaker 1: don't think the Bills are really the type of team
Speaker 1: is gonna put up twenty four points, you know, in
Speaker 1: any even weak or anything like that. So the sixteen
Speaker 1: and a half is a lot. But you know what,
Speaker 1: I made my money banging on the Dolphins to cover
Speaker 1: they covered against the Redskins, and I think I'm moving
Speaker 1: on from them, So let's also move on to two.
Speaker 1: Kind of dumpster fire of teams over here, Rams at Falcons.
Speaker 1: Rams are currently laying three and a half. The early
Speaker 1: line was three, so it's moved a little bit in
Speaker 1: favor of the Rams. The over under here is at
Speaker 1: a whopping fifty three. I mean, look, the Falcons offense,
Speaker 1: it's great, Matt Ryan is playing great. The defense cannot
Speaker 1: stop anyone whatsoever. Meanwhile, Jared Goff is coming off a
Speaker 1: game where he threw for seventy eight yards against the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers. The offense looks completely out of sorts.
Speaker 1: We don't know about whether Todd Girl or Key to
Speaker 1: Leave is gonna play here. This feels like to me
Speaker 1: a spot for the Rams to kind of get right
Speaker 1: a little bit. I think the Falcons are just kind
Speaker 1: of done until dan Quinn is fired. What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this Falcons team, they've really really checked out.
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, they're they're figuring out ways to lose
Speaker 2: in all different fashions. You're totally right on a possible
Speaker 2: get right game for this Rams team. This offense, they're
Speaker 2: in a dome going up against a horrible defense. If
Speaker 2: Jared Goff can't get it going here, I just don't
Speaker 2: think you can get it going three and a half
Speaker 2: as far as the number probably makes sense. But I
Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised if this gets bet up a little bit,
Speaker 2: because I mean, the Falcons have just looked horrible any scenario,
Speaker 2: and even ATS, I don't think they can give this
Speaker 2: Falcons team enough points. But yeah, people are out on golf,
Speaker 2: and I've made fun of golf for a long time.
Speaker 2: Now I say, I say I'm the owner of Jared
Speaker 2: Goff Sucks Island because.
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's an island anymore. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: a continent at this point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an island in the same way that Australia
Speaker 2: is an island or whatever. It's just growing. But yeah,
Speaker 2: I totally agree Cup. I think and golf they get
Speaker 2: going here, So I think I think this actually may
Speaker 2: go up, and if you like the Rams, you may
Speaker 2: be able to find a minus three somewhere and you
Speaker 2: may want to bet that now.
Speaker 1: And I'm not kidding. I mean I'd take it at
Speaker 1: three and a half and not be overly concerned about it.
Speaker 1: I think if you like the Rams getting now, I
Speaker 1: don't think it's going back to three. Nobody in their right,
Speaker 1: mind can back Atlanta at this point. A lot of
Speaker 1: people did, myself included back then, you know, the spread went.
Speaker 1: I believe they were originally laying one to the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: Then they wound up laying two and a half by
Speaker 1: the time it closed, and that of course didn't go well.
Speaker 1: Although if Matt Brian had hit you know, an extra point,
Speaker 1: perhaps they would have done it. But in the end,
Speaker 1: this look, the Rams have to get right. I get
Speaker 1: there's a blueprint on them right now about how to
Speaker 1: kind of contain them, But in the end you got
Speaker 1: to get pressure on goth to make them uncomfortable, and
Speaker 1: I just don't think the Falcons are going to be
Speaker 1: able to do that. So I do think you know,
Speaker 1: I get that it's an away game, But if you
Speaker 1: like the Rams personally as I do, I think i'd
Speaker 1: get in on it now because it's not going to
Speaker 1: get lower. I don't think it's going back to three.
Speaker 1: If you can get a three, get in now. But
Speaker 1: if you like them also, I think it's a better
Speaker 1: chance that it rises, you know, more like Rams four
Speaker 1: could close at four and a half or something like that,
Speaker 1: as opposed to three and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's a blueprint out on Jared Goff,
Speaker 2: but I don't trust the Atlanta Falcons to figure out
Speaker 2: any sort of blueprint.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, absolutely. Let's move on to the Vikings at
Speaker 1: the Lions. Really interesting game. The Vikings here are laying
Speaker 1: one the over unders at forty four. Again, we have
Speaker 1: not seen how the Lions are going to look tonight,
Speaker 1: but they've been pretty impressive. I mean, they could easily
Speaker 1: be four to oh heading into tonight's game. They've been
Speaker 1: doing it with all around solid play on both sides
Speaker 1: of the ball. On the other side, the Vikings kind
Speaker 1: of look like they're getting right a little bit, look
Speaker 1: to be tightening the ship despite the fact that everybody is,
Speaker 1: you know, complaining and everything like that. The passing game
Speaker 1: gets going a little bit into admittedly really soft matchups
Speaker 1: against the Giants and the Eagles. Eagles have a fine defense,
Speaker 1: but it's all about stopping the run. They're really vulnerable
Speaker 1: in their secondary to essentially pick them here, Vikings saying
Speaker 1: one over underd forty four. What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think this spread is probably a
Speaker 2: little inflated on the Viking side because everyone saw Kirk
Speaker 2: Cousins go off and they're like, oh, Kirk Cousins, good
Speaker 2: is good. Yeah, let's hop on the Kirk Cousins bandwagon.
Speaker 2: You're probably to me, it felt like a little inflated.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm a diehard Eagles fan, and I was
Speaker 2: seriously worried about our cornerbacks going into that game. I mean,
Speaker 2: they just couldn't cover. I mean, it was really that simple.
Speaker 2: And Kirk Cousins got the touchdowns, he got it done.
Speaker 2: But I do feel like this is a little inflated.
Speaker 2: I think if the Lions have a competitive game, or
Speaker 2: if the Lions win, you could see this definitely switch
Speaker 2: to Lions even I mean again, I wouldn't. I would
Speaker 2: have set this line closer to Lions minus three, because
Speaker 2: I think these are two pretty successful teams, pretty solid
Speaker 2: teams so far this year, both Dome teams. It's a
Speaker 2: division matchup. I just don't know what what I've seen
Speaker 2: that makes the Viking so strong to be this much
Speaker 2: of a or just to be a road favorite in
Speaker 2: the division game.
Speaker 1: I feel like it's I feel like it's a little
Speaker 1: bit of undervaluing the Lions, to be honest, generally, and
Speaker 1: I feel like the bookmakers have done that all year.
Speaker 1: I mean the Packers lines, and I think it opened
Speaker 1: at minus six. It might have closed at minus four
Speaker 1: or something like that. Before that, you know, against the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: you know, every everybody was all over the Chiefs, I
Speaker 1: guess on that one, and the Lions wound up covering.
Speaker 1: So I kind of feel like the Lions still aren't
Speaker 1: quite getting the respect they deserve. I don't. I don't
Speaker 1: know necessarily if I agree that it should be the
Speaker 1: Lions favored by three, this does feel much more like
Speaker 1: a pick em to me, and I think you'd agree.
Speaker 1: You don't. You wouldn't expect the line to actually get
Speaker 1: anywhere close to the right.
Speaker 2: I mean, no, no, no, I'm just saying in my head,
Speaker 2: these teams feel closer to even, and especially in the
Speaker 2: division matchup. Yeah, I think it would. On a neutral field,
Speaker 2: I guess I would probably have the Vikings by maybe
Speaker 2: a point, so then you factor in home field. But
Speaker 2: you're right, I don't think the number will actually move
Speaker 2: to that. So yeah, if you like the Vikings, maybe
Speaker 2: you're right, it probably gets to a pick. But yeah,
Speaker 2: a lot of that'll determine on what happens tonight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, in the end, this game is going to be
Speaker 1: about who you think is going to win. Before we
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Speaker 1: hundred gambler. All right, John, let's move on here to
Speaker 1: the Texans at the Cot. The Colts are laying one
Speaker 1: and the over under is now at forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half. It has dropped a bit. It was at
Speaker 1: forty eight and a half when I first saw. The
Speaker 1: Texans are dealing with a couple of injuries here. Titus Howard,
Speaker 1: their right tackle, and Bradley Roby, one of their corners,
Speaker 1: are both going to miss some time. There's lots of
Speaker 1: early money on the Colts here, who are coming off
Speaker 1: a buye. This is maybe a little bit of a
Speaker 1: letdown spot here for the Texans coming off the giant
Speaker 1: win against the Chiefs, and with the Colts they're getting
Speaker 1: a little healthier. Of course, with the bye Darius Leonard
Speaker 1: has finally cleared the concussion protocol and should play. What
Speaker 1: do you think here, Colts laying one over under forty
Speaker 1: seven and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think this one's going to probably creep
Speaker 2: up closer to three. Like you said, a lot of
Speaker 2: money coming in on the Colts. They're coming off that
Speaker 2: bye week, and again Texans two huge wins back to back.
Speaker 2: They both beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Kansas City.
Speaker 2: The game feels pretty evenly matched, and the Colts are
Speaker 2: good at home, and Colts and Texans are good ats teams.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets to
Speaker 2: two and a half, maybe the full three by kickoff.
Speaker 2: It does seem like, like you said, the money's coming
Speaker 2: in on the Colts, and I think there's a number
Speaker 2: of matchups that kind of favor them, and especially if
Speaker 2: they get Leonard back and it sounds like he cleared
Speaker 2: the protocol, he should play. That should be huge against
Speaker 2: the Texans offensive line.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one where I've actually been monitoring it.
Speaker 1: It opened up minus one, it got bumped almost exactly,
Speaker 1: just had two two and a half to the point
Speaker 1: where right before we went on, I was checking where
Speaker 1: the line was and it had moved back to one,
Speaker 1: and I wasn't sure if that was a typo. But
Speaker 1: while you were talking, I went and I was like, oh,
Speaker 1: maybe I just wrote down the line wrong or something
Speaker 1: like that. No, when I got there, it had been
Speaker 1: to two and a half. So it's kind of jumped
Speaker 1: all over the place. I can't imagine. If you like
Speaker 1: the Colts in this game, this is the best you're
Speaker 1: going to get. So you got to get on it.
Speaker 1: Because I completely agree. There's a lot of money at
Speaker 1: least early coming in on the Cults, and it's good.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a perfect situation right now for
Speaker 1: the Colts. I mean, the Texans are really flying high,
Speaker 1: you know, off that game, and they're not that good.
Speaker 1: I mean they're fine, but they're really not that good.
Speaker 1: I have no idea whether they're not throwing downfield to
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins or anything like that. Now, they could have
Speaker 1: won bigger in Kansas City, to.
Speaker 2: Be it did feel like they left some opportunities on
Speaker 2: the board.
Speaker 1: I think will Fuller himself, you know, left eighteen points
Speaker 1: on the field by dropping all the touchdown passes. So yeah, look,
Speaker 1: it's certainly something where perhaps, you know, realistically, you could
Speaker 1: look at that game be like, man, the Texans should
Speaker 1: have destroyed the Chiefs. Absolutely, that's fine, but arrested Colts team,
Speaker 1: you know, coming off you know, one of these draining,
Speaker 1: you know games for the Texans. I agree that I
Speaker 1: like the Colts, and I wouldn't be surprised at this.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't think it'll get to three, but
Speaker 1: you know the fact that it was already at two
Speaker 1: and a half before coming back down. I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised if it got there. And if you like the Colts,
Speaker 1: I'd get Now let's move on to the Cardinals at
Speaker 1: the Giants. The Giants here are favored by three. The
Speaker 1: over under has moved up to fifty and a half.
Speaker 1: This is bounced back a lot here. It opened originally
Speaker 1: in forty nine and a half, dropped down a bit,
Speaker 1: then came back up. I'm a little surprised by this line,
Speaker 1: so I'm interested to hear what you think about it.
Speaker 1: I mean, the Cardinals are getting Patrick Peterson back, Kyler
Speaker 1: Murray is starting to play really well even without Christian Kirk,
Speaker 1: who could be back. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley isn't even a
Speaker 1: lock to come back. I kind of thought that he
Speaker 1: would be. I thought it was just they're gonna wait
Speaker 1: and see. You know, they're gonna hold him out for
Speaker 1: the Thursday night game. But now it didn't sound all
Speaker 1: that optimistic or at least not certain that he's going
Speaker 1: to come back in this game. Sterling Shepherd is probably
Speaker 1: going to be out again. I kind of thought that this.
Speaker 1: I understand the Giants being favored, but given the fact
Speaker 1: that Arizona's offense has looked a little better here lately,
Speaker 1: admittedly in soft matchups, that I kind of thought that
Speaker 1: this would be more like one one and a half
Speaker 1: two or something like that in favor of the Giants.
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I see where you're saying what you're
Speaker 2: saying there. I think they just kind of these teams
Speaker 2: are similar in a lot of ways where they're they
Speaker 2: should really struggle on defense. They're probably able to get
Speaker 2: the passing game going against weaker opponents, but You're right.
Speaker 2: I think what's really gonna be key is the Giants
Speaker 2: injuries and who actually ends up playing or doesn't play.
Speaker 2: The Patrick Peterson thing probably is in factor in the line,
Speaker 2: but it really should because you know, going up against
Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback like Daniel Jones, who, I mean, what
Speaker 2: five turnovers against the Patriots. What the Giants have going
Speaker 2: for them is the extra bit arrest coming off the
Speaker 2: Thursday game, and those Thursday teams have been I think
Speaker 2: fairly strong ats this season. The other matchup that's really
Speaker 2: important as far as in big fantasy implications as well.
Speaker 2: But the Cardinals can just not figure out how to
Speaker 2: guard a tight end. I don't know what the hell's
Speaker 2: going on, but they just can't figure it out. And
Speaker 2: whether or not Evan Ingram plays, I know it's not
Speaker 2: going to have an impact on the line, but definitely
Speaker 2: something to keep an eye on for DFS or fantasy stuff.
Speaker 2: But yeah, maybe it's a maybe it's a hair high,
Speaker 2: but I think I kind of see what they're doing
Speaker 2: setting it at three, and I could see adjustments getting
Speaker 2: made if Saquon actually plays, or if they get a
Speaker 2: lot of money one way or the other.
Speaker 1: Well just to be clear, Tyler Eifert heard your the
Speaker 1: giant the Cardinals can't stop any tight ends at all,
Speaker 1: and said hold my beer, because we had a lot
Speaker 1: of him in DFS and it did not work out quite.
Speaker 2: By any exceptions.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, but certainly if Ingram plays. You know, he
Speaker 1: missed Thursday night's game, but if he is able to play,
Speaker 1: then he is a wonderful play. In the end, I'm
Speaker 1: going to be honest, like I can't ever right now,
Speaker 1: I can't back the Cardinals. I mean I'm in any game.
Speaker 1: I don't mean in this game, I mean in any game,
Speaker 1: just because I just do not have faith in them.
Speaker 1: I actually picked the Falcons. Unfortunately, it was a little
Speaker 1: bit like the Irresistible Force meets the Immovable outduct with
Speaker 1: right with the Falcons just completely tanking basically at this point,
Speaker 1: just not playing anymore, versus the Cardinals, in which I
Speaker 1: have no faith whatsoever. So in the end, I'm surprised
Speaker 1: a little bit about the line. I don't like one team.
Speaker 1: This is not a game I'm gonna go near. And
Speaker 1: on Thursday we list a game that we're avoiding, and
Speaker 1: this will probably be my game because I just don't
Speaker 1: like it. I'm okay with the over under. I mean,
Speaker 1: fifties a little high for me considering Peterson's coming back,
Speaker 1: But I do expect both teams to be able to
Speaker 1: score pretty much at will.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if, yeah, the Cardinals, are they really
Speaker 2: going to win three games in a row. It does
Speaker 2: seem like the Cardinals or Yeah, the Cardinal stock couldn't
Speaker 2: be higher with back to back wins, even though neither
Speaker 2: win was against a good team and they certainly could
Speaker 2: have lost probably both those games as well.
Speaker 1: That's a little bit why I was surprised that the
Speaker 1: Giants were favored by three, because I kind of expected
Speaker 1: money to come in on the Cardinals here, Yeah, because
Speaker 1: given the fact that they're riding high and they're coming
Speaker 1: off the things. But that early money is not on
Speaker 1: the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: I'm the Giants, So yeah, Jay's still kind of a
Speaker 2: public team.
Speaker 1: I get it. I get it, bookmakers, no more than
Speaker 1: I do. That's fine, I will accept it. Let's move
Speaker 1: on to forty nine ers at the Redskins. Forty nine
Speaker 1: ers here are laying ten. The over under is at
Speaker 1: forty two. Everything's working for the forty nine ers. I
Speaker 1: I thought that Kyle Yuschek's injury would have a little
Speaker 1: bit more of an impact. But they look I mean, look,
Speaker 1: they only put up i think seventeen points or whatever
Speaker 1: against the Rams, so it's not as if they had
Speaker 1: an offensive juggernaut. But their defense has been completely suffocating.
Speaker 1: And we talked about the Redskins earlier when we were
Speaker 1: looking at the Dolphins matchup. They take advantage of that matchup,
Speaker 1: but still only seventeen points. I mean, they look relatively
Speaker 1: kind of almost sort of competent with case GenAm back there.
Speaker 1: But ten points is a big margin to be an
Speaker 1: underdog at home. But what do you think you're forty
Speaker 1: nine ers laying ten over under forty two?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think the forty nine ers are
Speaker 2: probably are finally getting the respect from the bookmakers. I
Speaker 2: know I was skeptical of the forty nine ers success
Speaker 2: and it seemed like the betting market was skeptical as well.
Speaker 2: I mean, you look at that Rams line, that wasn't
Speaker 2: that big, and yeah, I think finally now it's like,
Speaker 2: all right, they're playing a really bad team. It's on
Speaker 2: the east coast, west coast to east coast, but I
Speaker 2: think think they're finally kind of giving the respect that
Speaker 2: they've earned. Again, I wasn't a huge forty nine Ers
Speaker 2: guy going into the season, and again I thought the
Speaker 2: fullback injury for the forty nine Ers would really kind
Speaker 2: of slow down that Shanahan offense, but it just didn't.
Speaker 2: So it's hard not to give the expect the forty
Speaker 2: nine Ers to win by a decent number, especially with
Speaker 2: how historically good that d line is playing. I think
Speaker 2: that's gonna be kind of a nightmare situation for the Redskins.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think the Redskins offensive line, you know,
Speaker 2: as as competent as they made a Keendom look, I
Speaker 2: think it could be trouble for going up against this
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers team.
Speaker 1: I really want to find value in the Redskins in
Speaker 1: this game because I'm just like, well, you know, they're
Speaker 1: they're coming east, and you know they're coming off this
Speaker 1: monstrous win you know over the Rams where they looked
Speaker 1: you know, it's classic classic letdown game. But I just can't.
Speaker 1: It's one of these things where these teams, you know,
Speaker 1: with the Dolphins for the first couple of weeks, you
Speaker 1: were kind of like looking at these lines, You're like, well,
Speaker 1: there's value there you know that there's value, there are
Speaker 1: NFL teams, there's value with these big lines. But I
Speaker 1: can't do it, not a ten certainly. If anything, I
Speaker 1: leaned towards the forty nine. The over under strikes me
Speaker 1: as about right. Forty two. I mean, it's not gonna
Speaker 1: be a high scoring game no matter what, because you
Speaker 1: know the forty nine ers as a general matter, especially
Speaker 1: without you check, I'm sure that does affect their offense. Again,
Speaker 1: they only put up seventeen points against the Rams team
Speaker 1: that was missing a keep to leave. I mean, they
Speaker 1: have a fine defense, but overall, you know, I think
Speaker 1: the forty two strikes me as roughly correct. Let's move
Speaker 1: on here to the Jaguars at the Bengals. Jaguars are
Speaker 1: laying three the over under at forty three and a half.
Speaker 1: The Bengals managed to keep it relatively close here in Baltimore.
Speaker 1: They were never really in the game, but they ended
Speaker 1: it within six. Maybe they get aj greenback here sound
Speaker 1: you know, Zach Tayler said, we'll see today, so who knows.
Speaker 1: They obviously struggle on both sides of the ball. And meanwhile,
Speaker 1: you know, Minshew Magic looks to be running out a
Speaker 1: little bit the Jaguars had a lot of trouble moving
Speaker 1: the ball against Saints, but still the line felt a
Speaker 1: little bit light to me. I thought the Jaguars should
Speaker 1: have been favored by maybe four. I imagine the public
Speaker 1: is going to come in hard on Jacksonville with that
Speaker 1: line because just I think people are just avoiding the Bengals.
Speaker 1: So it makes me a little nervous that it didn't
Speaker 1: open higher, especially they were favored against the Saints, which
Speaker 1: I think surprised a lot of people. I know they
Speaker 1: were home, so you know, it makes me a little
Speaker 1: worried because this line s tricks me as it should
Speaker 1: be closer to something like four.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do. I don't see it closing at minus
Speaker 2: three for the Jags. It does feel like you'll get
Speaker 2: up to three and a half or four. I mean,
Speaker 2: the Bengals are zero and six. And can you really
Speaker 2: make a case where you were watching a Bengals game
Speaker 2: and thought like, hey, they got this, They're gonna win
Speaker 2: this game. I mean, they covered against that Ravens team.
Speaker 2: But if you watch that game, there was kind of
Speaker 2: some fluky stuff that happened as far as like random
Speaker 2: special teams play or you know, deflected I and T
Speaker 2: that kind of stuff. And the Jaguars, even though they
Speaker 2: lost to the Saints at home, I think that kind
Speaker 2: of says more about the Saints. This Jaguars team feels
Speaker 2: like a competent team. I mean, I'm not you know,
Speaker 2: I still got a little taste of minshew mania. You know,
Speaker 2: just got my fake mustache and sunglasses in the in
Speaker 2: the mail, so I gotta I gotta hold onto it
Speaker 2: until it runs out. This Jaguars team just feels competent,
Speaker 2: and I can't really say the same thing for the Bengals.
Speaker 2: I think I think it's just gonna be tough to
Speaker 2: get the public involved on the Bengals at plus three,
Speaker 2: even as the home dog.
Speaker 1: That's the point. I mean, the public here is going
Speaker 1: to pound the Jaguars, at least i'd expect them to.
Speaker 1: And it makes me a little nervous when there's a
Speaker 1: line that's like, man, you guys are just begging for
Speaker 1: the public to pound one side of this. It makes
Speaker 1: me a little nervous that I'm missing something at this point.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I tried to make excuses for the Bengals
Speaker 1: for a while, you know, when they when they were
Speaker 1: beaten up by the forty nine ers and they they
Speaker 1: couldn't tackle anybody. I was like, well, I mean they
Speaker 1: look competent against Seattle, so you know, I don't think
Speaker 1: those tackling issues are repeatable, and it turns out that
Speaker 1: they were. I did beat against Buffalo at that time,
Speaker 1: which they've managed to cover, getting six. I think they
Speaker 1: lost by four in that game, so you know, on
Speaker 1: the road they generally have a pretty good record of covering.
Speaker 1: But at this point, I mean, I'd love the Jaguars
Speaker 1: at three. I think this is a game where they
Speaker 1: bounce back a little bit from again a game I
Speaker 1: completely agree. That's much more about the Saints defense, which
Speaker 1: is really really strong in shutting them down there. So
Speaker 1: I agree, And if you like the Jaguars, I would
Speaker 1: get in now as opposed to waiting. Let's move on
Speaker 1: to the Chargers at the Titans. The Titans here are
Speaker 1: now laying two and the over unders at forty and
Speaker 1: a half, which really shows you what you need to
Speaker 1: know right now about the Chargers. Two teams here that
Speaker 1: are struggling. We don't know who's going to start at
Speaker 1: quarterback for the Titans at this point. After Ryan tanneheall
Speaker 1: they don't know. They don't know, and I'm not really
Speaker 1: sure it matters at all. I mean, I think it
Speaker 1: doesn't move the line either way because I think they're
Speaker 1: both equally sort of like, Okay, fine, throw this guy
Speaker 1: out there. I guess they'll be fine. Meanwhile, the Chargers
Speaker 1: are just doing Chargers things. They're lags against the Broncos
Speaker 1: and the Steelers. Their offensive line is in tons of trouble.
Speaker 1: They can't get into a group offensively, they can overcome
Speaker 1: their defensive injuries. Look, I have said essentially that I
Speaker 1: am never betting on a Titans game right now because
Speaker 1: I don't know which team is going to show up
Speaker 1: whenever they come. And I feel kind of the same
Speaker 1: way about the Chargers at this point. So what do
Speaker 1: you think Titans lang to over under a forty and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 2: Well, it's it's interesting because the Titans. When we're doing
Speaker 2: our preview podcasts over at the Sports Gamling podcast, the
Speaker 2: Titans team where a team me and my coast Ryan
Speaker 2: were both you know against. I think I had them
Speaker 2: at six and ten and he had them as like
Speaker 2: five and eleven, and we caught the wrath of a
Speaker 2: ton of Titans fans who are like, you don't know
Speaker 2: what you're talking about, blah blah blah. So it's I
Speaker 2: guess it's not surprising that they're that they're two and four,
Speaker 2: and it's weird because they they're a super physical team,
Speaker 2: and you know they succeed in kind of these smash
Speaker 2: mouse scenarios. The Chargers offensive line, Yeah, that pounc the
Speaker 2: injury putting him on IR that was just I mean,
Speaker 2: their offensive line was in shambles to begin with, and
Speaker 2: then you take away the center and you're forced to
Speaker 2: play a basically a road game at home. The Chargers historically,
Speaker 2: I mean since they moved to the stub Hub or
Speaker 2: what Dignity Helps Sports Park now it's called, they've actually
Speaker 2: been really good on the road because essentially they're playing
Speaker 2: sixteen road games, so normally there's there's some value on
Speaker 2: the Chargers on the road. Match applies, man, don't. I
Speaker 2: don't know where this line goes from here. I'd be
Speaker 2: surprised if it gets up to Titans minus three, but
Speaker 2: maybe that's where it goes. I do think the Chargers,
Speaker 2: even though they're injured, they still probably have the more talent.
Speaker 2: Hunter Henry seem to be getting going tons of questions
Speaker 2: quarterback for the Titans. Again, these are just two super
Speaker 2: disappoint teams. I guess I wouldn't be shocked if it
Speaker 2: gets to three, But again I don't This one is
Speaker 2: really tough for me to get a handle on because
Speaker 2: if you're the betting public, like I don't see what's
Speaker 2: appealing on either side of this. These are just two
Speaker 2: teams that have looked really frankly gross. So I think
Speaker 2: this is gonna be a low volume betting slate for
Speaker 2: the for the books here, So I don't know. Because
Speaker 2: of the low volume, I don't see it moving a lot,
Speaker 2: but I guess it wouldn't be surprised if Titan's move
Speaker 2: to three. What's your handle on this?
Speaker 1: You stole my thunder every No, that's good. I'd rather
Speaker 1: you talk the whole point that first of all, if
Speaker 1: this is not the least bet game on this slate,
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. I should make a bet
Speaker 1: on it, like I do every once in a while,
Speaker 1: but nobody wants this game. I don't think I have
Speaker 1: no idea what the line is going to. I think
Speaker 1: they're just going to try to make the line where
Speaker 1: they're Like, does anybody want to bet on this game, Like,
Speaker 1: that's what I thought. The Redskins Dolphins line one was
Speaker 1: three and a half. They were like, look at three
Speaker 1: and a half. People are either like me, are gonna
Speaker 1: look at me like, oh man, this is gonna be close.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't like either of these teams. I'll
Speaker 1: take the extra hook and I'll go with the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: Other people are like, man, the Dolphins are I don't
Speaker 1: care about the Redskins. You know the Dolphins are historically bad.
Speaker 1: I'll take it like I think they'll They'll try to
Speaker 1: set something. This line's gonna move all over the place.
Speaker 1: I think. I don't think it'll get past three in
Speaker 1: either directions, but I could see it ending with the
Speaker 1: Chargers favorite. I'm not even kidding, Like.
Speaker 2: No shocked either. I think they just kind of threw
Speaker 2: this two out to see what the betting public wanted
Speaker 2: to make of this game, and I guess let that
Speaker 2: let them decide.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I think if you and I are representative
Speaker 1: of the betting public, we're not nobody's gonna be going
Speaker 1: anywhere near this game. So that's my prediction. But it's
Speaker 1: not something that I have a good feel for at all.
Speaker 1: So before we finish up with our last few games,
Speaker 1: I want to tell everyone some good news and some
Speaker 1: bad news. Let's start with the bad news first, because
Speaker 1: that's how I like to do it. Our signed Alvin
Speaker 1: Kamara helmet giveaway contest is over. I'm going to randomly
Speaker 1: select a winner this week and announce it on Thursday's show.
Speaker 1: So that is the bad news. Contest is over. Now
Speaker 1: the good news. It's time for our next contest, and
Speaker 1: this one is a signed Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's helmet.
Speaker 1: You can go to bettingpros dot com slash contest for
Speaker 1: more details, but to enter, just leave a review for
Speaker 1: the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a
Speaker 1: screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. Now,
Speaker 1: an entry into any contest gets you automatically entered into
Speaker 1: all future contests. So maybe you're like me and you're
Speaker 1: just waiting for that Sam Darnold autographed helmet because he's
Speaker 1: your hero and he has immaculate hair. If that's ever
Speaker 1: going to be a giveaway, you would automatically be entered
Speaker 1: once you send in your entry into any contest, So
Speaker 1: take the two seconds be kind to Sean and send
Speaker 1: in a review. All right, let's move on here to
Speaker 1: the Saints at the Bears. Bears here are favored by
Speaker 1: three and hours half. The over under is at thirty nine.
Speaker 1: Still Teddy Bridgewater. Here, the Saints defense is playing incredibly well,
Speaker 1: as we talked about. Meanwhile, the last time we saw
Speaker 1: the Bears that were getting their butts kicked in London
Speaker 1: by the Raiders. I have some strong thoughts on both
Speaker 1: these numbers, by the way, but what's your reaction your
Speaker 1: Bears lank three and a half at home over under
Speaker 1: thirty nine?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was surprised that Bears were favored by this much.
Speaker 2: I mean, what more does the betting public and the
Speaker 2: odds makers need to see the Saints team? They went
Speaker 2: into Jacksonville and played extremely good defense. I mean, the
Speaker 2: Jacksonville offense isn't really that much different from this Bears offense.
Speaker 2: I mean, you could Gardner Minshew, I would take him
Speaker 2: over Chase Daniel right now. It's just I'm pretty surprised
Speaker 2: that's this high. I mean, I normally like to fade
Speaker 2: the Saints historically a dome team going outdoors on like
Speaker 2: kind of slow conditions. But this Saints team has just
Speaker 2: really showed that, you know, their defense can trap that
Speaker 2: their offense whatever they're doing with Bridgewater, they're keeping it
Speaker 2: simple and they've just been really effective since Drew Brees
Speaker 2: has been out. And I guess I'm surprised that the
Speaker 2: spread is that high.
Speaker 1: Could not agree more. I really I get that the
Speaker 1: Bears can be favored in this game because they're home
Speaker 1: and they're off of buying whatever. But no, I mean,
Speaker 1: the Saints are absolutely legitimate on defense. Really, that's what
Speaker 1: it comes down to. You can't run on the Saints, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, they have a great run defense. I mean,
Speaker 1: Fournette was fine, but they have a really good run defense.
Speaker 1: I don't think David Montgomery is gonna be able to
Speaker 1: do that much if they give him the touches, which
Speaker 1: you never know. So you're going to be relying on
Speaker 1: Mitch Trubisky is coming back here. Okay, that's good, I
Speaker 1: guess because Chase Daniel looked terrible. But it's not that
Speaker 1: good it really, you know, if you're going to be
Speaker 1: relying on him after being off for so long, especially,
Speaker 1: I mean remember as bad as he's looked, he looked
Speaker 1: terrible that first game part of it because he had
Speaker 1: no preseason reps essentially, and he's essentially looking at that too.
Speaker 1: He's been off for several weeks. I do not expect
Speaker 1: them to be able to move the ball very well here.
Speaker 1: So if you're telling me that you can get the
Speaker 1: Saints at more than a field goal, I mean I
Speaker 1: would be all over that, and I'd be all over
Speaker 1: the over under thirty nine too. I think ideally Peyton
Speaker 1: wants to rely on his defense. The one time he
Speaker 1: let Bridgewater open it up was against the Bucks, because
Speaker 1: that's the weakness. The weakness is they have no pass defense.
Speaker 1: They're okay at stopping the run, but they cannot stop
Speaker 1: the pass. He said, all right, we're going to open
Speaker 1: this up for this one time. Only. Can't do that
Speaker 1: against the Bears. It's going to be a low scoring game.
Speaker 1: I can't see a scenario where the Bears win by
Speaker 1: more than a field goal, so I'm shocked. I think
Speaker 1: it opened at minus four. It's already come down a
Speaker 1: little bit. So if you like the Saints, as both
Speaker 1: of us do, I would get in now before it
Speaker 1: drops closer to a field goal, because if you're getting
Speaker 1: more than a field goal, I love it. So I'm
Speaker 1: glad you had the same reaction because, yeah.
Speaker 2: Honestly, of all the lines this week, that one really
Speaker 2: in particular jumped out at me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was a good one. Let's move on here
Speaker 1: to the Ravens at the Seahawks. Really interesting game actually
Speaker 1: here right now. The Seahawks are favored by three and
Speaker 1: a half and the over under is fifty and a half.
Speaker 1: If you would have said in the preseason that the
Speaker 1: over under on the Ravens Seahawks game was going to
Speaker 1: be fifty and a half, no one would have believed.
Speaker 1: You know, you've got the MVP of the league almost
Speaker 1: certainly as at this point, Russell Wilson. He's playing absolutely
Speaker 1: out of his mind. But the loss of Will Disley,
Speaker 1: they I don't know if they've officially diagnosed it as
Speaker 1: a torn achilles yet, but that's what everybody thinks. He's
Speaker 1: likely after the season. He had kind of become an
Speaker 1: important weapon for them, and their defense has not been great.
Speaker 1: It's certainly not what it was back in its heyday.
Speaker 1: And then you've got the Ravens on the other side,
Speaker 1: who have beaten the Dolphins, the Cardinals, the Steelers, and
Speaker 1: the Bengals and other than the Dolphins, they haven't won
Speaker 1: by a significant amount, so you know, when they win,
Speaker 1: they don't really cover anyway, give me your thoughts on
Speaker 1: this one. Seahawks at home three and a half over
Speaker 1: under a fifty and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought Seahawks would be favored by a little
Speaker 2: bit more. I mean, this is a tough non conference
Speaker 2: road spot, a lot of travel for this Ravens team.
Speaker 2: And it's interesting because you're right, the Ravens and Seahawks
Speaker 2: historically have been like two grinded out, physical teams, and
Speaker 2: neither of the team's defenses have been what they've once
Speaker 2: been historically. I mean the Ravens in particular, they just
Speaker 2: don't have that same kind of pass rush, the same
Speaker 2: kind of intensity. And again, yeah, the Ravens have beat
Speaker 2: up on some lower quality teams. But the Seahawks, you
Speaker 2: look at their schedule, it's been They've won some tough
Speaker 2: games and kind of tough spots. I mean, even going
Speaker 2: up against Cleveland last week, I wasn't super high on Cleveland.
Speaker 2: I made Sea out of my lock, but still I
Speaker 2: give them some credit for a quality win because of
Speaker 2: how desperate that Browns team was and again non conference
Speaker 2: road game that can be easy to overlook. I think
Speaker 2: this is gonna be a tough spot for the Ravens.
Speaker 2: I mean, again, if you normally sometimes some people have
Speaker 2: this Seahawks home field advantage at three and a half.
Speaker 2: So to me, on a neutral field, the Seahawks and
Speaker 2: Ravens team already equal. I think the Seahawks are probably
Speaker 2: a point and a half power ranking by my account,
Speaker 2: so I'm surprised it's only three and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I think I have a little bit
Speaker 1: of a different view on this one. Now. Your view,
Speaker 1: I think is more of the majority of you. I've
Speaker 1: seen early action coming in on the Seahawks here are
Speaker 1: both in terms of the number of vets and the
Speaker 1: money that's being laid down. You know, man, I just
Speaker 1: I don't trust the Seahawks team.
Speaker 2: And that's fair, especially their defense.
Speaker 1: That's the thing. Their defense is not good. It's really
Speaker 1: it's all Wilson right now. You know, With Brandon Williams
Speaker 1: back for the Ravens, I think they're really going to
Speaker 1: be strong against the run. You take away Disley, not
Speaker 1: that will Disley is the be all end all or
Speaker 1: anything like that, but you know, dk Metcalf is fine,
Speaker 1: but you know he's much more of a red zone threat.
Speaker 1: Tyler Lockett's great. I mean, Jern Brown's probably not catching
Speaker 1: two touchdown passes. Again, the thing is that Wilson right
Speaker 1: now is just playing so incredibly well that they're likely
Speaker 1: going to be able to put a points on anyone.
Speaker 1: And I don't really trust the Ravens necessarily to be
Speaker 1: able to catch up, right. I mean, Lamar Jackson ran
Speaker 1: for whatever he did this weekend, you know, one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty yards, but you know you're not going to
Speaker 1: really be able to do that the entire time when
Speaker 1: you're playing from behind. Also, Hollywood Brown, it's not clear
Speaker 1: if he's going to be able to suit up for
Speaker 1: this one. He's kind of in wait and see mode,
Speaker 1: and his presence, if for no other reason, then it
Speaker 1: kind of clears out, you know, the field because of
Speaker 1: his speed. So if he doesn't play, I guess I
Speaker 1: could see it. But my early lean, oddly enough, was
Speaker 1: for the Ravens. I just it feels to me like
Speaker 1: a close game if you're getting more in a field goal.
Speaker 1: But it's something where again that's the minority position right now.
Speaker 1: From what I could see and the over under. I
Speaker 1: also it kind of felt a little under to me.
Speaker 1: I don't really expect this just crazy high flying. I
Speaker 1: don't think that's realistically what the Seahawks want to be.
Speaker 1: They had to do it. They fell way behind against
Speaker 1: the Brown so they're letting Wilson go. But I think
Speaker 1: ideally at their heart, at the way Pete Carroll and
Speaker 1: Brian Schottenhamer want to run these games, they want to
Speaker 1: be kind of like a close, like drag it out
Speaker 1: of fair one of these things. So I could see
Speaker 1: it being like that in a little lesser scoring than
Speaker 1: most people think. So I'm a little bit on the
Speaker 1: other side, which I admit is a minority position.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I get what you're saying there that maybe there's
Speaker 2: some value, especially in the under, because there are two
Speaker 2: teams that, like admittedly, want to run the ball, want
Speaker 2: to pound the rock. But yeah, it's going up against
Speaker 2: two defenses that have, you know, had issues, so I
Speaker 2: guess that's where things will shake out. But yeah, I
Speaker 2: mean saying it's a field goal game, I think totally
Speaker 2: makes sense to me. The extra point and a half
Speaker 2: value that I think is there if you're on the
Speaker 2: Seahawks is in the situational spot and the travel and
Speaker 2: that kind of thing.
Speaker 1: Yep, I think that all makes sense. Let's move on
Speaker 1: here to the Eagles that the Cowboys must win game
Speaker 1: here for both teams. Cowboys are now favored by two.
Speaker 1: I believe it opened at three. So the Cowboys laying
Speaker 1: to over under is now at forty nine. It was
Speaker 1: at forty eight. You've obviously got the Amari Cooper injury
Speaker 1: here on the Cowboys side. That's a big one for
Speaker 1: them if he is unable to suit up. It's a
Speaker 1: quad bruise, so it doesn't sound structural, but you know
Speaker 1: he missed the entire Jets game pretty much bigger than that. However,
Speaker 1: they might be the progress of Tarron Smith and Lil Collins,
Speaker 1: their big offensive linemen. I mean they neither one suited
Speaker 1: up against the Jets. One or both may suit up
Speaker 1: against the Eagles, which you know you need to do
Speaker 1: against that pass rush. Meanwhile, the Eagles just can't seem
Speaker 1: to get it going. You know, more than anyone you
Speaker 1: said you're an Eagles fan. Their pass defense is just
Speaker 1: not where they run defense is solid, their pass defense
Speaker 1: it's just terrible. They may get Shawn Jackson back. I
Speaker 1: think he's probably out for another week or two though,
Speaker 1: But I don't know. What are your thoughts here, Cowboys
Speaker 1: laying to over under forty nine.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's interesting, you know, because the Eagles
Speaker 2: cornerbacks Darby and Mills they're expected to return to practice.
Speaker 2: I don't know if they'll be able to go. There's
Speaker 2: so many questions at cornerback for the Eagles. To me,
Speaker 2: this just feels, I mean, both teams kind of similar
Speaker 2: in that they've had serious injury issues. Their play has
Speaker 2: been up and down. They're both three and three. They've
Speaker 2: lost some games they probably shouldn't have. To me, this
Speaker 2: just feels like a straight three. I don't see where
Speaker 2: the adjustment off the three is. That's, I guess, to
Speaker 2: me surprising. And it must have been a ton of
Speaker 2: Philly action coming in on the plus three that that
Speaker 2: got them to move into two. Because traditionally the Cowboys
Speaker 2: are a you know, America's team, a public team. I
Speaker 2: could see. I can see why they're off them because
Speaker 2: of the losing to the Jets, which is pretty embarrassing.
Speaker 2: But that was on the podcast. My co host had
Speaker 2: the Jets as his money lining dog play because with
Speaker 2: both tackles out and a look ahead spot for the Cowboys,
Speaker 2: you can see you could really make the case for
Speaker 2: the Jets.
Speaker 1: There so and the Jets and the Jets being the
Speaker 1: best team in the NFL. Thanks, I appreciate that go ahead.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, and uh yeah, and Sam Donald's return, Sammy
Speaker 2: d slinging it all around to me, this's just should
Speaker 2: feel this should just be three. I think three is
Speaker 2: where it probably will end up closing. I'm surprised we're
Speaker 2: seeing twos right now. So that's my big takeaway on
Speaker 2: this spread.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the consensus is two, but there are
Speaker 1: certainly some threes out there. I'm looking at it now,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know. My guess is the early money.
Speaker 1: You know, our people probably public betters, you know, looking
Speaker 1: at the Mark Cooper injury and maybe saying, you know
Speaker 1: they the offense. You know, you don't. Wide receiver injuries
Speaker 1: don't often move the line, or shouldn't move the line
Speaker 1: necessarily that much. But Cooper really changes things a little
Speaker 1: bit for that offense. Michael Gallup is good. Jason Witten
Speaker 1: found the Vounty of Youth a little bit, but they
Speaker 1: really don't have many other options after that. It's not
Speaker 1: a game that I feel particularly comfortable with no matter
Speaker 1: what it is. I agree it's three two evenly matched teams.
Speaker 1: Cowboys are at home, seems like a three primetime divisional game.
Speaker 1: It's just not something where I want to go near personally,
Speaker 1: because you know, both teams are desperate. But in the end,
Speaker 1: if both tackles, both offensive lineman play, Smith and Collins,
Speaker 1: if they both play, if Cooper plays, I'd probably lean
Speaker 1: towards the Cowboys here, especially if you can get it
Speaker 1: at anything less than three. But in the end, it's
Speaker 1: just probably a game I'm not gonna go too close.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it does seem like I would, I mean, honestly,
Speaker 2: either side, you like, I would kind of wait it
Speaker 2: out till later in the week, because again it's like
Speaker 2: will they play, but then sometimes they play, but they're
Speaker 2: not fully one hundred percent like I think. I guess
Speaker 2: if you like the Cowboys, maybe lock up that minus two.
Speaker 2: But it does seem like it's worth it to wait
Speaker 2: and see how some of these injuries progress before betting
Speaker 2: this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, with all the health concerns, it's certainly something where
Speaker 1: more information is going to help you make a better
Speaker 1: decision final game of the week, Patriots at Jets. Patriots
Speaker 1: here are laying ten over under is at forty three.
Speaker 1: We talked a little bit about the Jets looked very
Speaker 1: competent offensively with Sam Darnold against the Cowboys. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure whether or not Chris Herndon's gonna be able to
Speaker 1: play here, but regardless, they can certainly move the ball.
Speaker 1: Robbie Anderson, Jameson Crowder and even Samarius Thomas sort of
Speaker 1: helping out there, and of course they have Le'Veon Bell
Speaker 1: and on the defensive side, they're solid, not spectacular, don't
Speaker 1: have great corners or anything like that, but especially if CJ.
Speaker 1: Mosley can come back, that's gonna yeah, that's too. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure what the latest is on him. I
Speaker 1: haven't read anything yet about this week, but he's obviously
Speaker 1: been trending in that direction. Although he wasn't questionable in
Speaker 1: like a game time call here, he was doubtful, so
Speaker 1: he may be another week away or something like that. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Pats, they continue to roll, but they did not
Speaker 1: look that dynamic against the Giants Offensively. They got going
Speaker 1: a little bit later, but you know, Josh Gordon's battling injury.
Speaker 1: It's pretty much Julian Edelman. They are getting to kill
Speaker 1: Harry Back. The running game really does not look good
Speaker 1: since James Devlin went out. It's a big thing. But
Speaker 1: you know they can easily drop, you know, forty points
Speaker 1: without really breaking a sweat here. So what do you
Speaker 1: think Patriots minus ten over under forty three in New
Speaker 1: Jersey playing against the Jets.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I I think this spread sounds about right.
Speaker 2: Patriots coming off that extra Thursday rest, their offense has
Speaker 2: really just looked bad. I mean there's moments where Tom
Speaker 2: Brady's throwing the ball and you're just like, ugh, what's
Speaker 2: going on there? So it's I guess in that sense
Speaker 2: it's crazy to make them a minus ten road favorite.
Speaker 2: But I think the flip side of that is this
Speaker 2: Patriots team is just historically good on the defensive side
Speaker 2: of the ball, and they're creating turnovers, They're creating points
Speaker 2: off turnovers. They're making the job so easy for the
Speaker 2: offense going the other way that they can't help but
Speaker 2: cover these big numbers. Like I was on the Pats
Speaker 2: minus sixteen and a half and certainly had to sweat
Speaker 2: it out a little bit but they you know, they
Speaker 2: came through, and a lot of it is the turnovers
Speaker 2: that they got off Daniel Jones, a young, inexperienced quarterback,
Speaker 2: which they're facing with Sam Darnold here. Yeah, I think
Speaker 2: if you we're back in the Jets, I liked the
Speaker 2: case you're building there with like CJ. Mosley and the defense.
Speaker 2: The Jets defensive line I probably doesn't get enough credit
Speaker 2: for how solid it's been. So if they can, you know,
Speaker 2: and this is a Monday night game, the Jets should
Speaker 2: be up for it. I think that's the case. If
Speaker 2: you're talking yourself into the Jets. I don't if you're
Speaker 2: if you're a Pats backer and you're hoping it gets
Speaker 2: down to like nine and a half or nine, so
Speaker 2: you can put it in a tease, I'd be surprised
Speaker 2: if it dips that low. I think if anything, it
Speaker 2: probably you know, gets to ten and a half maybe,
Speaker 2: But this this spread feels about right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is about right. I actually think
Speaker 1: if it does, I think it's going to stay here
Speaker 1: at ten because I think ten's the right number. I
Speaker 1: think if it does go anywhere, I could see it
Speaker 1: going half a point to nine and a half actually
Speaker 1: under the ten because my guess is that people will
Speaker 1: be hitting the Jets here a little bit, particularly if
Speaker 1: there's good news on Mosley. You know again, look, you know,
Speaker 1: you throw out, throw out completely what you saw in
Speaker 1: between game one and in between this last game. Because
Speaker 1: Luke Falk is not an NFL quarterback, you can't take
Speaker 1: anything away from it. Darnold is good, the system works,
Speaker 1: It's really gonna be I know Adam Gase isn't the
Speaker 1: great head coach, but his system is going to be fine.
Speaker 1: They're gonna be able to move the ball against it.
Speaker 1: It's a fantastic, fantastic defense. The Jets have no offensive
Speaker 1: line whatsoever. That's that's troubling, but Darnold's mobility is able
Speaker 1: to kind of move around that. And again, they're gonna
Speaker 1: be able to get pressure on Brady without blitzing too
Speaker 1: much given the line. And that's the one thing that
Speaker 1: makes it not as confident. I'm always reluctant to back
Speaker 1: the Jets, just because I've been a fan of my
Speaker 1: entire life, and it's you know, if you've done that,
Speaker 1: you've seen enough losing. But at this you know, at
Speaker 1: home on Monday night, that place is going to be nuts.
Speaker 1: They really get up for it. I kind of see
Speaker 1: a little value in the Jets. I'm not saying that
Speaker 1: I would take it. I'm sure it won't be like
Speaker 1: a super contest pick or anything like that for me,
Speaker 1: but it's something where as of right now, I kind
Speaker 1: of see the value and I kind of also see
Speaker 1: the value in the over because I think that, you know,
Speaker 1: of forty three, the Jets are going to be able
Speaker 1: to move the ball, not crazy or anything like that.
Speaker 1: The Pats have a great defense, but look, you know
Speaker 1: they're gonna the game against the Giants wound up being
Speaker 1: you know, relatively high scoring one where the Pats are
Speaker 1: gonna be able to pick to put up points. So
Speaker 1: I kind of like the over there, and I kind
Speaker 1: of lean towards the Jets with the ten. But it's
Speaker 1: not something where I'm like jumping for joy over or
Speaker 1: anything like that.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I'm probably of that mindset as well. But
Speaker 2: it's just this Patriots team just keeps covering these big
Speaker 2: numbers and they the turnover thing could really swing this
Speaker 2: one way the one way or the other, and night
Speaker 2: I do think, yeah, I do think you're I like
Speaker 2: to play on the over there that that kind of
Speaker 2: makes sense the case you're building there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, let's hope so so I can at least
Speaker 1: enjoy my my Monday night living in New England as
Speaker 1: a Jets fan. But anyway, that's gonna do it. For
Speaker 1: today's show, Shawn, it was great having you back on.
Speaker 1: Remind everybody where they can find more of you and
Speaker 1: your work.
Speaker 2: Awesome. Yeah, we'll check us out on the Sports Gambling Podcast.
Speaker 2: You can follow us on Twitter at Gambling Podcast or
Speaker 2: follow me at Sewan T. Green And yeah, we're putting
Speaker 2: three podcasts out a week. We do a daily fantasy one,
Speaker 2: a college and the NFL Picks one and yeah, so
Speaker 2: and tons of blogs and free picks and all that
Speaker 2: kind of stuff over at Sports Gaming podcast dot com.
Speaker 1: Awesome. Thanks again for coming back, and I hope we
Speaker 1: can do it at least one more time before the
Speaker 1: season ends.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I would love to really enjoy it. Thanks man.
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Speaker 1: We'll be back later this week giving you some of
Speaker 1: our best bets for week seven. I'll talk to you
Speaker 1: then