1 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three 2 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I 3 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 1: am Chad Moman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network. 4 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 1: Joining me today is my co host, my companion, my compadre, 5 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: and my bff, Professional Better, Simon Hunter. 6 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 2: Heato. 7 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:33,880 Speaker 3: So I then, hello, Chad, how are we doing? Brother? 8 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 3: Let me see m tell me? 9 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: We got a great email over the weekend from one 10 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 1: of our listeners named Chloe, because we had Chris Long 11 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: and the show, and we talked about how you were 12 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 1: not able to find a female companion, and we joked 13 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: that all you have to do is say one of 14 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: the reasons you can't is because you're professional better, and 15 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: that is kryptonite. Chloe wisely pointed out that not all 16 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 1: women would would avoid dating a guy who is a 17 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 1: professional better, but at least there's a couple of things. One, 18 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,479 Speaker 1: I want you to share the reasons why you think that. Two, 19 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 1: when I introduce our guest, he will be the proof 20 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: of what Chloe is saying because he and his wife 21 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,759 Speaker 1: are great a great pair as gamblers. 22 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 3: Okay, well, first of all, I'm going to hit you 23 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 3: with a one so one, I have no problems for 24 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 3: my companions. That's not an issue. It's having someone to 25 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 3: date long term is issue. Shout out to Chloe. She's 26 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 3: in the New York Philadelphia area. Reach out to your boy. 27 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 3: But yeah, if there's no issues getting the dates, it's 28 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 3: like the problem is the third or fourth date, and 29 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 3: there's just no way, easy way to bring it up, 30 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 3: because it's not like I'm the dude in the couch like, yeah, 31 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 3: don't worry, I'm only betting ten dollars a game. And 32 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 3: the story I told you was I had this girl 33 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 3: I really liked, but she was I mean, the best 34 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 3: way described is she was very straight, like she's not stiff, 35 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 3: but kind of a stiff personality, like robably didn't smoke 36 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 3: a cigarette until she was like twenty three, and it 37 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 3: was when she was blacked out drunk, like just a 38 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 3: good girl. She comes over. She took on a Sunday. 39 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 3: The Eagles already played, so she's like, I come over, 40 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 3: go yeah, no problem, Like, come over, I'm just watching football. 41 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 3: And she comes over and I'm watching the Cleveland Browns 42 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 3: and the Tennessee Titans, and I'm going ape shit about 43 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 3: this fumble and she goes, why do you care the 44 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 3: Eagles won. This is the Browns. I go casual and 45 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 3: I anything I go, I have one hundred K on 46 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 3: the Browns. Here she just turned all white chat and 47 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,799 Speaker 3: literally before I can explain myself, she was already out 48 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 3: the door, number blocked. And so that that's was my 49 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 3: whole point. I had no problem finding these dates. It's 50 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 3: just getting them to stay around when they know what 51 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 3: I do. Because if you don't know the whole story. 52 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 3: If I'm on a date with a girl she's telling 53 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 3: me she's got one hundred K on the Browns, I'm 54 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,399 Speaker 3: leaving too. I think she's an idiot. I'm like, why 55 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 3: do you got that kind of money on the Browns? 56 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,519 Speaker 3: So no fault to her. I see where's coming from. 57 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:04,679 Speaker 3: But yes, please Chad hit me with your story. You 58 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 3: know I love a good Chad Moment story. 59 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: My story is the opposite, which is you just need 60 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: to marry someone who was so uninterested in what you do, 61 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 1: so unimpressed. You could literally record a podcast in an 62 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 1: office you are sharing with her at the time, and 63 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: she will still not know you have a podcast, what 64 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 1: you do for a living, what betting is, or how 65 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: it is we're paying for our lifestyle, just love just 66 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: doesn't care at all. However, however, our guests today, one 67 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: of our favorite guests, a regular contributor to the Favorites. 68 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, like Evan, like you know, Tito, Matt Mitchell. There 69 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 3: are our brothers on this show. This is our other brother, right. 70 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: It's our other brother. It's our other brother, it's our 71 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: other betting brother. We're talking about our director of research, 72 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. He will deliver us as top ten NFL. 73 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 1: I want to say Week one trends, but that feels 74 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: too narrow, Like this is really about NFL betting trends 75 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 1: that we can apply to week one, but things to 76 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 1: think about. Welcome to the show, Evan, who actually has 77 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 1: a great love story. 78 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I got a lot to say about this. 79 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep it to I'm gonna keep it to 80 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 2: like a minute or so here. But I do have 81 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:27,559 Speaker 2: a wife. We got married two years ago in Costa Rica. 82 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 2: That should say enough in itself. But the fact is 83 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 2: is she loves to gamble. But you had to slow 84 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 2: roll it. Guys, Like first date, I work in sports, 85 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 2: you know, Second date, you know I enjoy finance. You know, 86 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 2: you gotta you gotta work your way up to what 87 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,599 Speaker 2: possibly could be and then Simon, I mean, one hundred 88 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 2: k could have been one hundred dollars and then a 89 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 2: week later could have slow rolled potentially what is uh, 90 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 2: I'm the curtain. Yeah, yeah, I know there's ways, there's 91 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 2: there's ways to potentially figure it her, but it is 92 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,719 Speaker 2: definitely taboo. But legalizations helped a lot of things have 93 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 2: helped throughout the years. Especially Hey, listen, I've got a job. 94 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:10,600 Speaker 2: I've worked for ESPN in the past. There's certain pillars 95 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 2: maybe you try to stand on when you get the 96 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 2: eyebrow right, so it's all good, but it's pure love here. 97 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 2: I mean, listen, now we get to talk about whatever. 98 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 2: She loves tennis, betting, especially women's tennis, so we went 99 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,480 Speaker 2: to French Open. There's also there's lots of positives. 100 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:33,799 Speaker 1: Here, Evan, Yeah, finance, finance. 101 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 2: And you gotta slow roll it. 102 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: When did you ultimately reveal that you were someone who 103 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:45,160 Speaker 1: loved betting so much? You moved to Vegas after college 104 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: and eventually came to work for me for free as 105 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 1: a gambling researcher when I had a column at ESPN. 106 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 2: It made it easy because I believe, like in day two. 107 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 2: She brought it up first as we were starting. She 108 00:05:57,760 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 2: was like, oh, I love Las Vegas. I've been to 109 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 2: Las Vegas a ton of times. And I'm like, okay, here's. 110 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 3: Even just said himself, this is the one. 111 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:09,679 Speaker 2: This is it, Like, I'm never leaving this table. So yeah, great. 112 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 2: Everything was the fact that she brought it up. If 113 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 2: she hadn't gone down that path, it probably would have 114 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 2: been the same as all the others. 115 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 1: To be then you brought out Then you brought out 116 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 1: your folder of gold sheets from nineteen seventy five so 117 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: you can review all the odds that you are memorizing, 118 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: so you can do research for week one. 119 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 2: Correct. She's like, why are you watching cricket? You know, 120 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 2: We've had lots of conversations since then, so it's all right, you're. 121 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 1: Watching cricket because it's a pretty great great sport. 122 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 3: It's great American sport. We should say. 123 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: Great American sport. It is a bet on as a 124 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: reminder of the Favorites. Podcast is presented by bet three 125 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: six five. Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. That's 126 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:52,279 Speaker 1: why you get more boosts with them than with anyone else. 127 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 1: Every day they power up the odds on hundreds of 128 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: bets to give you a chance to win more. Bet 129 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: three sixty five boost specific markets, your winnings and even parlays, 130 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:02,560 Speaker 1: and they don't stop. They're keeping out for their biggest 131 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: and best odds with the incredible super Boost. 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Okay, we got a whole 141 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 1: host of topics that we want to get through, Evan, 142 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: I might just throw some out at you in various 143 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 1: order Matt Mitchell's order. Then in the script, I don't 144 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 1: want to go that way. 145 00:07:57,840 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 2: Perfect. 146 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: First thing I want to talk about out week one 147 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: Super Bowl hangover, because I do believe, I do believe 148 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: we've got some pretty crazy expectations for the San Francisco 149 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 1: forty nine ers in Week one. Set the scene. When 150 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: are they playing? Who are they playing? What is the line? 151 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: How should we approach a potential hangover? 152 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, so this one's pretty easy. San Francisco is now 153 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 2: minus five and a half Monday Night football against the Jets. 154 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 2: I know, Jets, Monday Night football again. Can't believe they 155 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 2: did that to them. But the thing is, it's already moving. 156 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 2: So this was one of the few lines it's already 157 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 2: had a little bit of a tweak. It opened at six, 158 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 2: now down to five and a half. So Jets getting 159 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:48,439 Speaker 2: a little bit of love here, and maybe the hangover 160 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 2: is a storyline for some people. So since two thousand, 161 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 2: fading the Super Bowl loser in Week one has been 162 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 2: just a great bet. It is ten and fourteen straight up, 163 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 2: and I'll talk about that in a second, right up angle. 164 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 2: It's usually the line that's kind of tweaking. And so 165 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 2: the ten and fourteen straight up, five and nineteen against 166 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 2: the spread dating back to two thousand now when their 167 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,199 Speaker 2: favorite over a field goal nine and four straight up, 168 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 2: four and nine against the spread, So it's usually a 169 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 2: tight win. Now, last year super Bowl winner, super Bowl loser. Sorry, 170 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 2: actually came through and covered and won. 171 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 3: But if you remember another side of that one, I 172 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 3: can't remember, right, Yeah, I think we lost on what 173 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 3: a two pointer? 174 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 2: Evan? 175 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 3: Is that? 176 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: Yeah? 177 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 2: Very c I was gonna say it's very close. It 178 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 2: was a tight up into the end. Eagles really played 179 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 2: down to the Patriots in that game, but ended up 180 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 2: covering in the end. But it's it's been pretty interesting 181 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 2: throughout the years, last seven years, five and two straight up, 182 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 2: but it's like two and five against the spread. Again, 183 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:47,319 Speaker 2: it's usually about a field. 184 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 1: Goal game, Simon, this is one game I thought we'd 185 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 1: make it our big balls bet of the week on 186 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: the Jets. I didn't want to go there. You didn't 187 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: want to go there because you love the Niners. You 188 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: got the Niners as your best power rated team. 189 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 3: But it's brutal too because people know, like I love 190 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 3: the Jets, like it's like talking out both sides of 191 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 3: them out. But it's again, like the Jets lose that one, 192 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 3: then they went five straight. Just feels like that's how 193 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 3: it's gonna break. But I know these trends, and Evan 194 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 3: knows I love fading the spot and That's what's so 195 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 3: brutal is I keep feeling like the forty nine ers 196 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 3: of the Unicorn team, right, they didn't lose a bunch 197 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 3: of coaches. They don't you lose a bunch of players. 198 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 3: I mean they're paying their quarterback nine hundred k. I 199 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 3: mean talking about craziness. I saw who was it was 200 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,319 Speaker 3: guy the Guy Riddick, whoever was for the Jets, or 201 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 3: whoever it was someone in manatory MINDI camp they forfeited 202 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 3: seven hundred K of their salary. So they literally forfeited 203 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 3: what party's gonna make pretty much for the season. So 204 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 3: that's I'm right there with Evan. Like last year, I 205 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 3: thought we made a great bet and it's a sick 206 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 3: bet too, where we covered the Patriots because me and 207 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 3: you got at five and a half six in June 208 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 3: and then obviously by game day I think it was 209 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,079 Speaker 3: three and a half, which we played like idiots and 210 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 3: contest because we love the number, and we lost by 211 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 3: the hook, right, we lost on the two pointers. So 212 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 3: with all these trends like Evan's talking about here, people, 213 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 3: I do think if you do love betting these trends, 214 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 3: you have to stick to it. And me I just 215 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 3: use this as another tool. So it's like, I'm not 216 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 3: dug in, but if you were worried about taking the 217 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 3: forty nine ers, good, don't take it then, like, this 218 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 3: is another reason. Evan's kind of giving you another reason 219 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 3: not to take them. And if you want to back 220 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 3: the Jets, this is another great reason to be like, well, 221 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 3: it gives you more confidence to bet the Jets because 222 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,719 Speaker 3: historically you're playing a good number, which again, I just 223 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 3: want to go to Raiaro with trends. Here Evan says 224 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 3: it all the time. It's not the end all be 225 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 3: all for him either. It's just another tool in the 226 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 3: arsenal to use. 227 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: Tread Lightley, you mentioned that Eagles Patriots game. We freaking 228 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 1: love the Patriots and we love the Jets in Week 229 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: one against the Bills, and here here's a very specific scene. 230 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:57,959 Speaker 1: I remember first Monday of the NFL season, I had 231 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 1: to go meet someone for lunch in Stamford, Connecticut, which 232 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: is about ninety minutes from my house in West. 233 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 3: Hertford, Stanford, Connecticut. 234 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 1: I'm feeling so sick to my stomach the whole day 235 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:16,599 Speaker 1: because we went too and no, we went one in 236 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 1: three to start the weekend and our worst loss was 237 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: that Patriots loss, which was gut wrenching, heart breaking. You 238 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: look back and you're like, oh my god. And I 239 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 1: remember on the way back from lunch that day, I 240 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:36,680 Speaker 1: was listening to Evan and Joe Glante in the Monday 241 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:41,079 Speaker 1: episode of the Action Network podcast, and like Evan had 242 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: so many great thoughts on how to bet Monday night, 243 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson was on. He was talking about early Leans 244 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: for week two already, and I like, I almost had 245 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 1: to pull over to the side of the ninety five highway, 246 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 1: like inter State ninety five, because I could not fathom 247 00:12:58,080 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 1: what the night was going to be like where we 248 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 1: desperately needed the Jets to go two and three in 249 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:04,479 Speaker 1: the contest. 250 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 3: A little did you know it all? A hinge on 251 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:09,079 Speaker 3: Zach Wilson. 252 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: What a night, Jack Wilson, what a night, indeed the 253 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: moment of his life. But it also is like one 254 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 1: of those things where you look back and we did 255 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 1: this heading into week two, and we will do this 256 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: again throughout the year. You look at the whole record 257 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 1: and you're like, wow, that was I was a real 258 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:25,839 Speaker 1: kick in the dick. But if you look at it 259 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 1: like individually, game by game, a tweak. Here a line, here, 260 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 1: a penalty here, Balan, it's like you're you actually weren't 261 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 1: that far off, and it gives you a little bit 262 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 1: of a handrail on the roller coaster to get on 263 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 1: with your life, you know. All right? Another team we 264 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: love this year, Evan Indianapolis Colts. Shane Steichen to me, 265 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 1: really proving himself to be one of the best the 266 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 1: young coaches in the NFL what he did with Gardner 267 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: Minshew and the Colts and putting them in sort of 268 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 1: contention the way they were after Anthony Richardson went down. 269 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: That was to me, all Shane Steichen, Anthony and Richardson 270 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:17,079 Speaker 1: is back, He's throwing fine, he'll be playing for the Colts. 271 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: We were really excited about him. Colts opening season woes. 272 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: Should we be wary? 273 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 2: First of all, this is one of the two games 274 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 2: where the lines moved a full point already. It was 275 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 2: Indy one and a half, now it's two and a half. 276 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 2: So Houston not only their line has gotten crazy like 277 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 2: down to twelve to one to win the Super Bowl 278 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 2: after all the additions, but the week one line is 279 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 2: already rolling. So Houston mine is two and a half 280 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 2: in Indy now this one's gone through multiple quarterbacks, multiple coaches. 281 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 2: This just seems to be a franchise trend that continues 282 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 2: to hit. So since two thousand and eight, the Colts 283 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 2: are two thirteen and one straight up, one fourteen and 284 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 2: one against the spread in Week one, including owen six 285 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 2: against the spread when they face an AFC South opponent, 286 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 2: which they are here the fun one. In the last 287 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 2: twenty years, only Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning have won 288 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 2: or covered a Week one game for Indy, So it's 289 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 2: basically been all the characters through the door. No one's 290 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 2: been able to start the season on a positive note. 291 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 2: I thought a funny question for you guys might have been, 292 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 2: can you start naming any other Week one Colt starting 293 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 2: quarterbacks other than those two? Because it has been a 294 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 2: litany of different people. 295 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 1: Give me a clue, Give me, give me a clue. 296 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 2: So Anthony Richardson's won since he did it already. He 297 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 2: got Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Oh my god. Rivers, Jacoby Brissette, 298 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 2: Scott Tolzine, and Carrie Collins are the all the quarterbacks 299 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 2: that have lost for the Colts that they've basically picked 300 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 2: up off the graves. So to say, to bring into 301 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 2: their organization to try to start them up later in 302 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 2: their careers, and it's been terrible. Now Anthony Richardson a 303 00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 2: completely different story, even though we did see him last year. 304 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 2: After that, he progressed very well until his injury. So 305 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 2: we'll see home dog in that sage. Now. The one 306 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 2: thing I will say, which is an interesting thing, India 307 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 2: is six and one against the spread in week two 308 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 2: last seven years. So this has worked absolutely perfectly in 309 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 2: the sense that they've started crappy and they've bounced back, 310 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 2: and it's almost happened every single year, so we'll see it. 311 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:22,680 Speaker 3: I just want just want to say the line movement 312 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 3: could be based off Anthony Richardson. Apparently he's resting right now. 313 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 3: Right he's not throwing completely and people are a little 314 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 3: worried that shoulders not fully healed. So a lot of 315 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 3: pros I've talked to they just went right away as 316 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 3: soon as they saw that he was working on throwing 317 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 3: lefty because he didn't want to throw righty that day 318 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 3: because there was a rest day. I know some guys 319 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 3: who just took a position on the other siders, just 320 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 3: like dude, this dude, he might not just be right 321 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 3: ever again, Like that's kind of thing where you kind 322 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 3: of have that shoulder injury and guys don't come back 323 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 3: right from him. So I get the hesitation. I'm just 324 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 3: I'm not worried about it. I don't think Chad is either. 325 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 3: If this gets to three, we already liked it, it's 326 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 3: gonna we'll go down with a ship. But that's nothing 327 00:16:57,960 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 3: to remember, Chad. We won't get pissed to Anthony Richardson, 328 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 3: we do not cover. We gotta we gotta ride that 329 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 3: second trend right, take them next week if we. 330 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, I betted it one and a half. Maybe if 331 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 1: it gets to three, that's a contest play Yeah, sure, 332 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 1: two and a half. 333 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 3: It's like that's that's what feels like a great number. 334 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 1: It's a hard one, but like, think about that graveyard 335 00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:24,160 Speaker 1: of quarterbacks Matt Ryan, Carson, Wentz, Philip Rivers, Like. 336 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 3: In our view of Frank right, I mean, come on, 337 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 3: Like we don't have the highest praise of that guy either, 338 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 3: seeing what he did with that Carolina team and how 339 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 3: underprepared they were. 340 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 1: We definitely feel better about Shane Steichen. 341 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 2: I like Indian this game. I think it's gonna go 342 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 2: up and who's the back of Flacco? So I mean 343 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 2: if Richardson can't go, he'll cover for us. 344 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, battered Flaco. 345 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 3: You know, Tad those we love Flacco as a dog 346 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 3: and we fade as a favorite, as simple as that. 347 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,439 Speaker 1: That's so true, by the way, it's so true, so true. 348 00:17:54,640 --> 00:18:00,440 Speaker 1: Speaking a favorite, the losing favorite bounce back. I don't 349 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 1: know what this means, Evan. I want you to explain it, 350 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 1: because how can there be a losing favorite bouncing back 351 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 1: in week one? 352 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 2: So again, this was the one topic to not a 353 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 2: week one er. Everything else is going to be week one. 354 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 2: This is something that a probably something you should watch 355 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,760 Speaker 2: out for early in the season. But be all of 356 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 2: these ten or eleven things we talk about, I'll be 357 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 2: writing about earlier in the year, I'll be tweeting about it, 358 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 2: we'll talk about on the podcast, so you're not going 359 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 2: to miss any of these spots that we talk about. 360 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 2: But this one is a bit of a look ahead spot. 361 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 2: So early in the season, we're talking first six weeks, 362 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 2: teams coming off a loss as a favorite are simply 363 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,440 Speaker 2: fifty five percent against the spread in their next game, blanket, 364 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 2: no questions asked, And that's a seven percent ROI over 365 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 2: the last twenty years pretty much hits every single year 366 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 2: five hundred and ats or better. But what I think 367 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 2: the right way to look at it is is these 368 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 2: favorites losing by double digits. That goes to fifty seven 369 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 2: percent against the spread and almost twelve percent ROI. So 370 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,160 Speaker 2: that is something early in the year I'll be looking 371 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 2: for just these odd situations where teams don't have it together, 372 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,639 Speaker 2: favorites lose by a large margin, they end up coming 373 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 2: back the week the next week, So something I'll be 374 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:13,639 Speaker 2: talking about. But it's a bit of a look ahead, 375 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 2: a spot circle, let's call it. 376 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 1: Well, look that my favorite thing last year. We're week 377 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: one and two trends like the notes we could gather 378 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:26,720 Speaker 1: from week one to week two. You know, could it 379 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 1: be the Texans when they don't cover against the Colts 380 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: bouncing back and being a team we love in the 381 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: contest in week two. By the way, I don't know 382 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 1: if you guys saw this. I just noticed this in 383 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,439 Speaker 1: the chat from Tito. I don't know if this is 384 00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:49,360 Speaker 1: a true story. On his third date with his now wife, 385 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 1: I imagine he said to her whether or not I 386 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 1: can pay this dinner bill? Depends on the Dolphins covering 387 00:19:58,960 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 1: a six point spread. 388 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 3: What a model love story? 389 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell says, no way. He went on multiple third 390 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,399 Speaker 1: dates in his life, so this has to be with 391 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: his wife. I'll report back if Tito finds the courage 392 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 1: or the words to respond, but right now it feels 393 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 1: like Matt Mitchell has run him over. All Right, this 394 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: one's interesting and Simon, if you want to jump in 395 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: with any topic, feel free. I'll do the next one though. 396 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:36,680 Speaker 1: Ye Week one King, Yeah. 397 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 2: So this one's pretty simple. It starts with a trivia 398 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,159 Speaker 2: question that it's pretty much been the answer over the 399 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 2: last two or three seasons. Which is the most profitable 400 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 2: Week one NFL coach in the Action Labs database which 401 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,439 Speaker 2: goes back twenty years. So which coach has been the 402 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 2: best against the spread in Week one over the last 403 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 2: two decades? And he's been in that slot mostly the 404 00:20:56,000 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 2: last few seasons. Does any guesses? No? 405 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 3: Give me, give me. 406 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 2: Oh, he's been in this role for ten plus years, 407 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 2: so he's a tenured coach in the AFC problem. I 408 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:14,159 Speaker 2: was gonna say close Amy. 409 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 1: Oh oh oh no, no, no, no, Harbaugh. 410 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, so it is it is. It's King. Rest We 411 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 2: call him John Harbaugh amazing. So we're going to talk 412 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 2: about two numbers here when he's got ten or more 413 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 2: days rest. Now, this is not week one, this is 414 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 2: simply Thursday to Monday thirdy, you know that type of 415 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 2: week or bye during the regular season, twenty seven and 416 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 2: eight straight up, twenty thirteen and two against the spread, 417 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 2: just Week one, twelve and four against the spread. He's 418 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 2: felt the coverage just once in the last eight years. Now, 419 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 2: now you're getting him as a dog. You've got the 420 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:53,119 Speaker 2: full three against Kansas City, three and two as a 421 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 2: dog in Week one as well, that's straight up. So 422 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 2: he's won those games. I mean, I'm I'm always anti 423 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 2: Kansas City and it's gotten me burned all over the place. 424 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 2: So I'm I'm into Baltimore here, especially if I can 425 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 2: get maybe three, maybe three and a half. But it 426 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 2: feels good. 427 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 3: All right, let's hit it check. 428 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 1: I got to follow up. I got to follow up, 429 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 1: follow up, follow up for both of you. Do we 430 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 1: think John Harbay is underrated as a coach. 431 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 3: Properly rating and they have one of the best front 432 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 3: offices at all football? 433 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 2: Right, I was gonna say the same, So. 434 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:31,679 Speaker 3: I feel like proper properly, Like we all give him 435 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 3: his flowers. 436 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, but how where do we rate him as a coach? 437 00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,480 Speaker 1: Do we think he's top five? He's not Andy Reid. 438 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 1: I doat is he Is he better than Dan Campbell? 439 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 1: Is he better than Kyle Shanahan? 440 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 3: Shanahan? But like I would put him top eight because 441 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:52,480 Speaker 3: he's just a great leader of men. 442 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 1: Not top five. Like top five are going down. 443 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 3: I want to put in top five because I need 444 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 3: I need the brains in there, like the mcveigh's, the Shanahan, 445 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 3: the Reeds, guys that are really putting this shit together. 446 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,120 Speaker 3: That's why, like Pittsburgh fans who shot on Tomlin constantly, 447 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:07,640 Speaker 3: It's like I get it. It's like, what is this guy? 448 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 3: What does he actually do? I feel the same way 449 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,119 Speaker 3: about Sirianni now, so I get where they're coming from. 450 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: But it does make it interesting, right because we've lost Belichick, Yeah, 451 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:22,520 Speaker 1: we've lost Vrabel, two guys that Betters have loved over 452 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 1: the years as coaches, and I think a lot of 453 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 1: people have always admired them generally as coaches. So maybe 454 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 1: Harbaugh is top five. Like if you're thinking about the 455 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 1: NFL right now, think about Evan don't shake your head 456 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 1: at me thinking about top five right now, Andy Reid, 457 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: Kyas Shanahan, Sean McVeigh, who, who else? Why isn't John 458 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 1: Harbaugh on that list? 459 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,159 Speaker 2: I think he is. I also can't. I love a 460 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,480 Speaker 2: coach who does well with a backup. It proves he 461 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 2: knows his system and he knows how to win and 462 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 2: knows how to cover in that situation. And I believe 463 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,919 Speaker 2: Harball has been pretty good in that spot when X 464 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 2: quarterback comes in, or Lamar when he gets hurt, you know, 465 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 2: or his a late season sickness he tends to have 466 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 2: the last few years. I love Harball. 467 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,560 Speaker 3: That's my pushback chat is just the disappointment he's given 468 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,879 Speaker 3: me over the years of like he just like that, 469 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,360 Speaker 3: I'll never move on from that team last year like that, 470 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 3: that was truly an out of body experience for that 471 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,639 Speaker 3: whole organization of just they were who they were and 472 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:22,679 Speaker 3: they came in there and shifted who they were for 473 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:26,040 Speaker 3: that one game. It was just bizarre world. So I 474 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 3: do agree with you, Like I'm trying to think of 475 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:28,880 Speaker 3: the other guys I'd put ahead of him, and he's 476 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 3: just been my whole life. He's been a great coach, and. 477 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 1: He's been a great coach. I actually feel like he's underrated. No, 478 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,639 Speaker 1: it's fair, he's not properly rated. He's I do think 479 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 1: it is. 480 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 3: Though, because he just keeps disappointing you. Bro, That's what 481 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 3: I'm saying. He has one ring. 482 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 1: You're not gonna put McDermott in front of it, in 483 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: front of him. You're not gonna put Mike McDaniels. You're 484 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:54,159 Speaker 1: not going to put Matt Lafleur. You're not going to 485 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:59,120 Speaker 1: put Zach Taylor Stefanski. You're not going to put Kevin 486 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: Stefanski in one of him. You know we're not ready 487 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 1: for Damico stich In. Doug Peterson, you can't anymore. Sean Payton, 488 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 1: you can't anymore. I don't think you can. 489 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 2: Dude. 490 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,280 Speaker 3: We never as an Egos fan chat, I never had 491 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 3: a Super Bowl brother. He broke, he broke the wheel. 492 00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 3: I'm saying now we're talking about underread to give Doug 493 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 3: Peterson some flowers. Doug Peterson, chess Doug. 494 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 1: Doug Peterson. He was a great coach in philadel and 495 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,400 Speaker 1: the visor cool. Doug Peterson was an amazing coach in Philadelphia. 496 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 3: Even so, come on, I need to know a Brazil chat. 497 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,239 Speaker 3: I need Brazil, give me the gut runs. I'm dying here. 498 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 3: I need to know. 499 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:38,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, So NFL sal Polo Brazil. You know crazy, don't 500 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 2: wear green. We've heard all this stuff. 501 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't wear green, don't. 502 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 2: We've heard a lot of this stuff. So let's just 503 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:47,119 Speaker 2: go into the Packers. Uh, specifically because Loof I honestly 504 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 2: hadn't realized this myself when looking through the numbers. Now, 505 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,399 Speaker 2: Packers are a small dog in this game. Uh. And 506 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 2: if you look at Lafour lafleur career fifty three thirty 507 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 2: seven against the spread in five seasons, he's the second 508 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 2: most profitable coach behind the guy you literally hear all 509 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 2: the time, which is Dan Campbell who's breaking ATS records, 510 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:09,200 Speaker 2: But behind him is Lafleur. Sixteen games above five hundred, 511 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,639 Speaker 2: did a great job of Jordan Love. But now you 512 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 2: talk about the underdog role he's been in that thirty 513 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,200 Speaker 2: two times. He's covered twenty two of those thirty two 514 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 2: games by almost four points per game, so over a 515 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:24,240 Speaker 2: field goal. And then you say to yourself, Okay, different roster. 516 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 2: Early in the year, first three weeks of the regular season, 517 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 2: Lafour is actually thirteen and two against the spread regardless 518 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 2: of the number, So to me, it just feels like 519 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 2: an Eagles team that feels a mess, was a mess, 520 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,679 Speaker 2: goes into the year still a bit of a mess, 521 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 2: and green Bay on the ascension. Now the number is 522 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 2: pretty short, but it's an interesting look. 523 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, I told Chad Evan, I talked to bookmakers. Again. 524 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,680 Speaker 3: I'm in the Philadelphia area, but Atlantic City is a 525 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:55,200 Speaker 3: lot of Giants fans as well. It's all Eagles money 526 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,879 Speaker 3: and that number has not moved, and that to me 527 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 3: is terrifying. But it is June, so I'm going to 528 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,920 Speaker 3: relax a little bit because if this is September. Me 529 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,440 Speaker 3: and child had to go pretty heavy on Green Bay 530 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,639 Speaker 3: to be the guide on the street. Like that's that's in. 531 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:10,919 Speaker 3: Like Evan's just saying a trend's point to it. The 532 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 3: books are pointing to it, like you just week one. 533 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 3: He don't want to be going against the books usually, 534 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,640 Speaker 3: so yeah, don't didn't like the trend, Devin. I thought 535 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 3: it was gonna go a different way. You may be 536 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,679 Speaker 3: even more nervous as an Eagles fan, so damn it. 537 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 2: Sorry, I had to go anti Philly. 538 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:36,640 Speaker 1: Look Matt Lafleur, I'd put him six. I'd go read Shanahan, McVeigh, Harbaugh, Tomlin, Lafloor. 539 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 1: That's what I would do. 540 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:39,080 Speaker 3: That's a solid list. 541 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:39,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that. 542 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 1: That's a that's a really good list. 543 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 3: And then other Harball brother might break that list this year, 544 00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:44,360 Speaker 3: Like see. 545 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,640 Speaker 1: Brother, we will fight his way into that top Yeah. 546 00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:50,679 Speaker 2: You can't even already did with San Francisco either, Like 547 00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 2: if he has success in his first season, it all 548 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:54,119 Speaker 2: comes together as a little package. 549 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a make or break year if you want 550 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,639 Speaker 1: to think of Lafloor as a top five, top ten coach. 551 00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 1: Because if you can do it again with Jordan Love 552 00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 1: your two post Rogers as he did it the second 553 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,840 Speaker 1: half of last year, that's that's impressive. Uh. One of 554 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,399 Speaker 1: the coaches who we would generally want to include on 555 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,159 Speaker 1: this list because we think he's the best hang in 556 00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 1: the NFL. Sean Payton went he went out on a limb. Boys, 557 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: he went out on a lonely, lonely, flimsy limb, reaching 558 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 1: the long arm of Sean Payton reaching for bonicks. Yes, 559 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 1: so what we've got, Nick hold on, let me set 560 00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: it up, fucking interrupted me so much on this. 561 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,080 Speaker 3: Show long pauses today, Ched, I will say that you 562 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:42,320 Speaker 3: do have long pauses today. 563 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 1: It's waves, dramatic bonicks. Sleepless in Seattle. 564 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:53,240 Speaker 2: All right, that was actually better than I thought it 565 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:56,600 Speaker 2: would be. Uh So last year this got trumped, but 566 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,240 Speaker 2: it's actually just worth bringing back. So the Seahawks got 567 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 2: crushed at home last year Week one rams thirty to 568 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:06,280 Speaker 2: thirteen really wasn't pretty. But looking at the whole as 569 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 2: a franchise and kind of what ends up happening when 570 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 2: these teams come in there early in the year, Seahawks 571 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,440 Speaker 2: had gone eight no straight up, six and two against 572 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,920 Speaker 2: the spread when opening the season at home dating back 573 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 2: to two thousand one. Step further, they're actually thirty and 574 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,040 Speaker 2: six straight up at home in their first three games 575 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 2: of the regular season over the last twenty years. Just 576 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 2: difficult to get into that building with the twelfth man 577 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 2: early in the year. Good preparation. Now, how much of 578 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 2: that is Russ, how much of that is Carol? How 579 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 2: much of that is previous regime and preparation, Probably a 580 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 2: decent amount. But I feel like the number mixed with 581 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,360 Speaker 2: the fact that Denver started terrible at the beginning last year, 582 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 2: I believe they lost at home twice in the first 583 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,040 Speaker 2: two weeks, which almost never happens for them at Mile High, 584 00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 2: So this is kind of a reverse and as the 585 00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 2: bon Nicks, this could be a bon Nicks back in 586 00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 2: the Pacific Northwest starting for the Broncos. We're gonna see 587 00:29:58,000 --> 00:29:59,240 Speaker 2: if he can pull off the dog win. 588 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,040 Speaker 1: Bullshit. Yeah, I'm not buying. This is one of those. 589 00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 1: To me, this is one of those stupid stats I'm ignoring. 590 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,560 Speaker 1: It's like, because here's the thing. We do this all 591 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:18,680 Speaker 1: the time, franchise history, numbers in certain spots do not matter. 592 00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:23,760 Speaker 1: It's like that that's like the opposite of what you 593 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:29,360 Speaker 1: want to do. New coach, new offensive coordinator, same quarterback, 594 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 1: new coach, ish new quarterback. Everything goes out the window. 595 00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 1: In these scenarios. You might as well say, what is 596 00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 1: a new coach in his first game? What is a 597 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,240 Speaker 1: new rookie quarterback in his first game? Those are more 598 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 1: indicative to me. I don't like it, Evan, I don't 599 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 1: like it one fucking bit. 600 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 2: The best part about your reaction, this was the one 601 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,160 Speaker 2: I wanted to kick out. I had my ten I 602 00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,880 Speaker 2: was like, Matt, I'm Matt Mitchell. We're talking about our producer. 603 00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 2: I was like, this one's weak and we wanted to 604 00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,560 Speaker 2: stick to week I'm completely with you. We're gonna fade it. 605 00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 2: Seattle loses Week one. I'm I really do believe you 606 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,280 Speaker 2: and I'm with you. It means absolutely nothing, and if anything, 607 00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 2: I think the public will end up catching on wanting 608 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 2: to take Seattle and the line'll get inflated. 609 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 1: So, by the way, bitch, as soon as I said 610 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 1: this was bullshit, Matt Mitchell wrote in the chat, feels 611 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 1: like some Matt Mitchell slander come in this way. 612 00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 2: Perfect. It was perfect well set. 613 00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 1: Up, Simon. Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app 614 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,040 Speaker 1: in the United States? 615 00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:32,080 Speaker 2: Game Time? 616 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,640 Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love game Time for 617 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:38,120 Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor this show. Second, I 618 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 1: use game Time all the time. They have amazing last 619 00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:45,520 Speaker 1: minute deals, including pro in college sports. I'm actually opening 620 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,880 Speaker 1: the game Time app right now from my house here 621 00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,520 Speaker 1: in Connecticut. Guess what the hottest team in baseball? The 622 00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:55,040 Speaker 1: New York Yankees. I can get into see them for 623 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:59,320 Speaker 1: thirty bucks. No matter where you live, download the game 624 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,040 Speaker 1: Time app. Get out have some fun this week. You 625 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 1: deserve it. You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars 626 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 1: off first purchase terms apply again. Just download the game 627 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 1: Time app and use code favorites for twenty dollars off 628 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:15,120 Speaker 1: your first purchase last minute tickets. Those prices guaranteed. 629 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 3: All right, Can we get to a chat out just 630 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,760 Speaker 3: what we've both been dying for because we love road dogs? 631 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:26,719 Speaker 2: Love it? 632 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,120 Speaker 3: Give me the road dog trends. 633 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, this one's simple, And to be honest, it's every 634 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,040 Speaker 2: single year we end up talking about it these teams 635 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,240 Speaker 2: early in the year, and when I give you the hook, 636 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 2: it's you're gonna understand kind of why. So most campbles 637 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 2: know that that Week one road underdog has been a 638 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,520 Speaker 2: good bet, and that's true. They've got a small positive 639 00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 2: it's like two or three percent overall blanket last twenty years. 640 00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,520 Speaker 2: But where you really want to split it down, road 641 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 2: underdogs who didn't make the playoffs the previous year. So 642 00:32:56,200 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 2: motivation differenceive roster and change up ninety fifty nine and 643 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,680 Speaker 2: five over sixty percent in that spot Week one last 644 00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 2: twenty years. So this year we've got ten teams right 645 00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,400 Speaker 2: now who are Week one rode underdogs who didn't make 646 00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 2: the playoffs last season. So six and four is basically 647 00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:21,920 Speaker 2: what you're looking at, hopefully to get kind of stay consistent, 648 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,560 Speaker 2: but a wild number that to me actually makes sense 649 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,920 Speaker 2: because as you get closer to Week one, those Week 650 00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:31,840 Speaker 2: one road underdogs no playoffs, usually facing a team probably 651 00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 2: did make the playoffs, You're just gonna get inflated lines, 652 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,800 Speaker 2: and right before that closing line of kickoff, it's probably 653 00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:39,640 Speaker 2: going up a point, a half a point in those 654 00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,520 Speaker 2: a few days, especially Week one, which gets an enormous 655 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 2: amount of action. So this one I really like. 656 00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:48,440 Speaker 1: I like it a lot too. Who are the six 657 00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,440 Speaker 1: that are gonna cover? Just so you can can you 658 00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 1: tell us? 659 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,600 Speaker 2: Right? We can work out how about this that's gonna 660 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:55,560 Speaker 2: be our Week one episode? I promise, there you go. 661 00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:57,480 Speaker 1: I'd be great if we could notice we could put 662 00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,120 Speaker 1: those in the contest. I feel like I might have 663 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:05,200 Speaker 1: overrelied on that one and in last year because I 664 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,399 Speaker 1: loved it so much and we went to and through 665 00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,360 Speaker 1: that week. I'm just saying it was. 666 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,399 Speaker 3: Definitely a reason we because we knew that ravens now 667 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:15,319 Speaker 3: we were like, we were big Raven Week one guys. 668 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,760 Speaker 3: We definitely rode that. We're like, Houston was ten point 669 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 3: dog on the road. We're like, come on, how do 670 00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:24,239 Speaker 3: we not take that? And again me and Chad, we're 671 00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,000 Speaker 3: in the right place. I get I say it all 672 00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 3: the time. Our heart's in the right place. You said 673 00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:29,839 Speaker 3: up being a great team. But man, that week one 674 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:33,680 Speaker 3: that heard against the ravensard. 675 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:33,080 Speaker 2: So much. 676 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,799 Speaker 1: Rich Man's Game. I like that these have titles and 677 00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:45,400 Speaker 1: I almost feel like Simon, we're playing Jeopardy host and 678 00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:50,080 Speaker 1: we're just reading something random and Evan now has to 679 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 1: answer the trivia question. Evan's the category is rich Man's Game. 680 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 2: Okay, so for four hundred dollars. Uh no, So the 681 00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,319 Speaker 2: Lions and this is this is a very similar one 682 00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,279 Speaker 2: to the hardball stat and it's something you bring back 683 00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,040 Speaker 2: because honestly, it just keeps hitting and with this guy, 684 00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,839 Speaker 2: he ends up covering every week anyway. So most profitable 685 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:17,239 Speaker 2: Week one quarterback Jared goth Yep. And it's just been 686 00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,160 Speaker 2: absolutely ridiculous because he's now seven and oats and openers. 687 00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,719 Speaker 2: He went four and oh straight up in ats with 688 00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:26,040 Speaker 2: the Rams, but now one and two straight up, three 689 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:29,439 Speaker 2: and o ats with the Lions. And obviously you've got 690 00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:33,560 Speaker 2: Detroit right now Sunday night football. They're laying three and 691 00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:34,120 Speaker 2: a half. 692 00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:39,080 Speaker 3: Again we seen that's are on McVeigh. I know it's 693 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,480 Speaker 3: the it's the Rams great trends. 694 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,960 Speaker 1: The RAMS ended up being our big balls better of 695 00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:44,480 Speaker 1: the week. 696 00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:46,360 Speaker 3: Because there again he didn't even say it. McVeigh is 697 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 3: a great week one trend two like even last year 698 00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:51,920 Speaker 3: they covered for US week one. So that's I mean. 699 00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,440 Speaker 3: That Campbells stat scares me, man, because me and Chad 700 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:56,560 Speaker 3: we're on the three and a half already of the Rams. 701 00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,520 Speaker 3: But luckily McVeigh plays pretty well, right, he coaches pretty well. 702 00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,120 Speaker 2: Won he does. I think he's either like second or 703 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:05,400 Speaker 2: third best on that list. To me, I'm oh, I 704 00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,960 Speaker 2: hate zeros. So when you see goff seven and zero, 705 00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:09,960 Speaker 2: it's always gonna tell me people are gonna pick up 706 00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,560 Speaker 2: on it. People are gonna roll with it, and probably higher. 707 00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 2: So at three and a half, I'm probably just to 708 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 2: stay away. Do you remember, I don't remember what the 709 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,880 Speaker 2: playoff game was. I didn't look that up, but I 710 00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,759 Speaker 2: would guess it was probably similar or a little higher potentially. 711 00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,040 Speaker 3: Uh So the line for the playoff game was three 712 00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 3: and a half. Oh there you go again. Never never 713 00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:29,520 Speaker 3: in doubt, right, Chad? 714 00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:30,160 Speaker 2: Yeah? 715 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:34,200 Speaker 3: Never, But I'm around watch in the with all the fans. 716 00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:35,279 Speaker 3: Right that we did. 717 00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:40,600 Speaker 1: Simon, you want to see up the next one. 718 00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:44,160 Speaker 3: Uh, I'm hoping because Chad's are crazy. Man went out 719 00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:45,919 Speaker 3: of order. I'm hoping. We haven't done this one yet. 720 00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:49,640 Speaker 2: The Miami Heat, Yeah we haven't. This one is a 721 00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:53,640 Speaker 2: fun one. Uh now week one, but we'll talk about 722 00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 2: in this seven. So I'm buying a Week one. 723 00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,800 Speaker 3: Brother, I'm drinking the kool aid. The heat man, no shade, 724 00:36:58,840 --> 00:36:59,320 Speaker 3: no shade. 725 00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:01,000 Speaker 2: Yeah here, it's perfect. 726 00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:03,080 Speaker 3: Everyone talks about that's my favorite thing of football, and 727 00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:04,680 Speaker 3: they're you know, in Miami, they don't got shit in 728 00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:06,040 Speaker 3: the other sideline. Know, I've never heard that. 729 00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,440 Speaker 2: Yeah shocking. It's like the goes a mile high earlier 730 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,359 Speaker 2: in the year, but here it's hard to win. It's 731 00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:13,520 Speaker 2: hard to win in Miami early in the season. Teams 732 00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,360 Speaker 2: struggling in Miami when the temperatures are high hasn't always 733 00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:18,280 Speaker 2: been true when you look through history, but it actually 734 00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,960 Speaker 2: has been true under the current regime, which we might 735 00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,600 Speaker 2: take more of a weight in. So at home temperatures 736 00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:28,440 Speaker 2: eighty plus. Tua is fifteen and three straight up, Mike 737 00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:32,439 Speaker 2: McDaniel is nine and one straight up. Also many people 738 00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,200 Speaker 2: have talked about this with that shade on the other sideline. 739 00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,440 Speaker 2: It's the one pm game at home with Miami specifically, 740 00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:41,200 Speaker 2: it's worked lately, so they are forty two and twenty 741 00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,720 Speaker 2: three straight up last decade in that one pm home slot. 742 00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:48,600 Speaker 2: Outside that one pm window, they're just eight and seven 743 00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:51,440 Speaker 2: straight up. So it does have a little bit of 744 00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:54,319 Speaker 2: a back and forth there that you can compare. Now, 745 00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,640 Speaker 2: let's look at Miami schedule. So Week one it's Jacksonville. 746 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,759 Speaker 2: I don't know how much I want to buy Jacksonville 747 00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:03,120 Speaker 2: being worried about the heat on the other sideline. But 748 00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:07,720 Speaker 2: Week two, Buffalo, Week four, Tennessee, those feel like maybe 749 00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:11,759 Speaker 2: different spots depending on the humidity, the weather, the situation. 750 00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,880 Speaker 2: Obviously a lot going on here, But nonetheless I was 751 00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:18,000 Speaker 2: surprised by the fifteen and three number and the nine 752 00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:19,759 Speaker 2: and one number with two in McDaniel. 753 00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,560 Speaker 1: So, Mike McDaniel, Doug Peterson, who do you want coaching 754 00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:23,960 Speaker 1: your team? 755 00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,640 Speaker 3: Ooh, Mike, I don't know, Mike McDaniel's come. 756 00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:31,319 Speaker 2: On, I think it's Peterson, to be honest, I think 757 00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:33,000 Speaker 2: he gets more. I think he gets more out of 758 00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,719 Speaker 2: the roster, Like I think what Miami's got going on 759 00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:38,399 Speaker 2: right now, like it kind of lives up to expectations. Well, 760 00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:42,480 Speaker 2: I feel like every time Peterson enters this season, he exceeds. 761 00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:44,440 Speaker 2: But I think this is a huge year there, so 762 00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:46,200 Speaker 2: I might be wrong in a few months. 763 00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:50,760 Speaker 1: I'd rather have John Harbaugh than both. Yeah, fair last 764 00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:56,200 Speaker 1: one evan extra rest equals unders. I don't know what 765 00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,080 Speaker 1: that can mean. It's a mysterious. 766 00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,239 Speaker 2: Title, shocking, but I will have a hook at the end, 767 00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,319 Speaker 2: which is fun. So last three years NFL unders have 768 00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:08,560 Speaker 2: just been going crazy overall, blanket doesn't matter anything else. 769 00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:12,880 Speaker 2: It's about fifty five percent, almost five percent. ROI one 770 00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,440 Speaker 2: hundred dollars better has been up almost four k just 771 00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:19,399 Speaker 2: betting unders. It's been twenty plus games over five hundred 772 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,000 Speaker 2: for unders all three seasons, so it really just hasn't 773 00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:25,440 Speaker 2: even been close. But the one spot that I personally 774 00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:28,200 Speaker 2: have focused on and I think is going to continue 775 00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,839 Speaker 2: hitting is the fact that teams with rest and during 776 00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,239 Speaker 2: games have been even more to the unders. So since 777 00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,839 Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, there have been one hundred and sixty four 778 00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:40,799 Speaker 2: NFL games where both teams were on eight plus days rest. 779 00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:44,160 Speaker 2: Monday Night Football, there's all sorts of different situations, including 780 00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:48,400 Speaker 2: week one. Right, So those teams sixty six percent to 781 00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:52,200 Speaker 2: sixty eight percent to the under, depending on the timeframe, 782 00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,719 Speaker 2: just absolutely cashes every single year so far. Now that 783 00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:59,160 Speaker 2: is without week one, but we care about week one, 784 00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,239 Speaker 2: Week one, thirty two and seventeen to the under the 785 00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:07,399 Speaker 2: same number sixty five percent. So usually rest has been 786 00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:11,800 Speaker 2: higher totals. Better's betting them up, and we've seen unders 787 00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:13,520 Speaker 2: and that's kind of the way it's been in the 788 00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,000 Speaker 2: recent offensive NFL. Let's call it. 789 00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:21,600 Speaker 1: Well, listen, both of you were preaching the unders last year, 790 00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:26,040 Speaker 1: the prime time unders last year, all season long, right 791 00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:29,759 Speaker 1: up until the moment where everybody felt the cat was 792 00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:31,320 Speaker 1: out of the bag and the numbers were going to 793 00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:33,479 Speaker 1: go in the other direction. And I think it worked 794 00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:37,759 Speaker 1: out for everybody, if I do say so myself. Evan Abrams, 795 00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:42,600 Speaker 1: director of Research. One of our brothers here on the 796 00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:48,200 Speaker 1: Favorites podcast. If we had to rank brothers, Simon J. 797 00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:53,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not ranked brothers, that's oh my god. How 798 00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,279 Speaker 2: about you rank your kids. Let's do that. First of 799 00:40:55,320 --> 00:41:00,640 Speaker 2: them are ranked brothers, you know what. 800 00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:07,359 Speaker 1: I love them both so little. It's hard to say, 801 00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:10,719 Speaker 1: hard to say as a reminder. The Favorites podcast is 802 00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,879 Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet three sixty five 803 00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,120 Speaker 1: doesn't do ordinary. That's why you get more booths with 804 00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,719 Speaker 1: them than with anyone else. Every day they power up 805 00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:20,360 Speaker 1: the odds one hundreds of bets to give you a 806 00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:23,480 Speaker 1: chance to win more. 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Terms Conditions restrictions apply. 815 00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:57,760 Speaker 1: Simon and I will be back with our next episode 816 00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:00,160 Speaker 1: of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page. Tuesday 817 00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:07,080 Speaker 1: mail Bag episode at eleven am Eastern until then. Download 818 00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:09,480 Speaker 1: us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, 819 00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:12,680 Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you 820 00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:15,879 Speaker 1: want feedback is a gift. Until next time. 821 00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:16,879 Speaker 2: Love You. 822 00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:29,560 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 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