WEBVTT - Airbus Sees A320 Become the top-Selling Aircraft Ever

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg business Week inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 2>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 2>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 2>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking about Bowick shares it Boeing once again hitting

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<v Speaker 1>some turbulence, down more than three percent as we speak,

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<v Speaker 1>down more than four percent of its lows today, but

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<v Speaker 1>right now about a three point two percent loss. This

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<v Speaker 1>is after the US Justice Department opened a criminal investigation

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<v Speaker 1>into the mid air blowout of a fuselage panel on

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<v Speaker 1>a seven thirty seven Max nine in January, something we've

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<v Speaker 1>been talking about when it comes to Boeing all year, and.

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<v Speaker 3>Just yesterday, US Transportation Secretary Pete boodage Edge said the

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<v Speaker 3>FAA will rigorously assess Bowing after the blowout of that fuselage. Meantime,

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<v Speaker 3>the head of Delta Airlines telling Bloomberg on Sunday Carrol

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<v Speaker 3>that he expects from the delays of the yet to

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<v Speaker 3>be certified seven thirty seven Max ten variant.

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<v Speaker 1>All right now, Boeing shares for the year as we

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<v Speaker 1>said under pressure, they're down about thirty percent year to date. Meantime,

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<v Speaker 1>For the little contrast here, folks, the eight hors of

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<v Speaker 1>Airbus tim they're up about eleven percent year today.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, you bring up Airbus, Carrol because Boeing stumbles and

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<v Speaker 3>struggles are an opportunity for its loan major competitor, and

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<v Speaker 3>that of course is Airbus. That is the topic of

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<v Speaker 3>a story in the current new issue of Bloomberg Business Week.

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<v Speaker 3>We have Business Week's assistant managing editor, Jim Ellis joining

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<v Speaker 3>us here in the studio. Jim, good to see you.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks for joining us on this a great story that's

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<v Speaker 3>in the current issue of Bloomberg Business Week. To what

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<v Speaker 3>extent are Boeing's troubles gains for Airbus Because we know

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<v Speaker 3>that these airlines, they don't necessarily have a ton of

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<v Speaker 3>choice when it comes to what they're buying. Their pilots

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<v Speaker 3>are trained on certain equipment, their maintenance crew are trained

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<v Speaker 3>on things.

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<v Speaker 4>It's to change aircraft makers is a big deal for

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<v Speaker 4>the airline. But we've gotten to a moment now where

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<v Speaker 4>there's so much, I don't know, a lot of bad news.

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<v Speaker 4>There is a lot of questioning about the quality of

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<v Speaker 4>Boeing's equipment right now. That it comes at a particularly

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<v Speaker 4>bad time for Boeing simply because a lot of people

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<v Speaker 4>are starting to think of a lot of airlines are

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<v Speaker 4>starting to think about the next generation of aircraft. And

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<v Speaker 4>you know a lot of people say, well, you know

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<v Speaker 4>things are happening. Now, everybody's going to jump and run

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<v Speaker 4>to Boeing. It's very run away from gooing. It's very

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<v Speaker 4>difficult to do simply because you know, as you said,

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<v Speaker 4>your crews are trained on that, and you've made these

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<v Speaker 4>multi billion dollar investments. But what's at stake here is

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<v Speaker 4>the next generation of planes. What happens is that because

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<v Speaker 4>in the airline business you can use a piece of

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<v Speaker 4>aircraft for decades, you don't make these decisions to change lightly.

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<v Speaker 4>So instead it's time to think about the next generation.

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<v Speaker 4>And so what air Bus is doing now is they're

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<v Speaker 4>going to have some room to go ahead and say

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<v Speaker 4>I'm going to come up with a new plane at

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<v Speaker 4>a time when Boeing is so so you know, sort

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<v Speaker 4>of troubled, and so can consumed with thinking about how

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<v Speaker 4>can it deal with its quality problems? How can it

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<v Speaker 4>also deal with its balance sheet problems? I mean Boeing

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<v Speaker 4>is in the point right now where it doesn't have

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of financial flexibility to build a new plane,

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<v Speaker 4>and so Airbus, however, is probably about a fifty billion

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<v Speaker 4>dollar advantage over it from a dead standpoint, and so

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<v Speaker 4>they can move ahead and start planning for the next

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<v Speaker 4>generation and sort of seal this dominance that they're probably

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<v Speaker 4>gonna have with the aircraft business.

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<v Speaker 1>Jim tell us how fortunes can change. And I love

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<v Speaker 1>how the story starts, and you guys go back to

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen eighty seven. If we can all remember back then,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a while. It's a while, but talk about what

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<v Speaker 1>happened and how that may be set the stage for

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<v Speaker 1>where Airbus is today.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean what happened is a lot of people

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<v Speaker 4>thought when Airbus decided to bring out its A three

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<v Speaker 4>twenty narrow body airline airliner, the people thought, oh, we're

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<v Speaker 4>gonna do that. I mean, we've got the seven thirty seven.

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<v Speaker 4>The seven thirty seven was rules the skies, and they

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<v Speaker 4>come out with this a three twenty. They have a

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<v Speaker 4>great party, they have, you know, sort of Prince Charles

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<v Speaker 4>at that time with Lady Diana. I mean, it's big,

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<v Speaker 4>big deal, fireworks and everything, and everybody says that's not

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<v Speaker 4>going anywhere. You know, you cannot beat them. They and

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<v Speaker 4>at that time Boeing had ten times as many seven

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<v Speaker 4>thirty sevens popping out than A three twenties. Fast forward

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<v Speaker 4>to today, and the A three twenty has become the

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<v Speaker 4>best selling commercial aircraft of all time. I mean, that's

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<v Speaker 4>that's a big deal, given that Boeing had commanded that

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<v Speaker 4>market for so long, and the seven thirty seven has

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<v Speaker 4>been a major player in aircraft for almost a half century.

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<v Speaker 1>How much of that is the mistakes and problems that

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<v Speaker 1>Boeing has had. How much of is it just folks

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<v Speaker 1>started to kind of really like the A three twenty

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<v Speaker 1>and shit their ordering books.

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<v Speaker 4>A lot of it is that the A three twenty

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<v Speaker 4>just sort of came in with a lot of innovations

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<v Speaker 4>that you know, customers connected with what they call fly

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<v Speaker 4>by wire, that sort of joystick, sort of all electronic cockpit,

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<v Speaker 4>the idea that it was a slightly larger plane, which

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<v Speaker 4>then set off this whole thing of continually making these

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<v Speaker 4>planes bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm measure how big my seed is.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't know about you guys, know, it turned out

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<v Speaker 4>that they were in the right place at the right time.

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<v Speaker 4>But they are also extremely you know, because they didn't

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<v Speaker 4>have an older model that they were basically just retrofitting,

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<v Speaker 4>they could think differently. They sort of took it and

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<v Speaker 4>they ran with it, and now they're in a position

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<v Speaker 4>to think about the next generation of airplanes that can

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<v Speaker 4>fly on sustainable fuel, that can do all sorts of

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<v Speaker 4>you know, sort of electronic things in the cockpit, but

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<v Speaker 4>also can take structures of airliners in a different way.

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<v Speaker 4>They're planning a plane now for this next generation that

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<v Speaker 4>has a wing that's shaped like a bird's wing that

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<v Speaker 4>can actually change its shape and flight. And also because

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<v Speaker 4>airports weren't built for these new giant planes that we're

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<v Speaker 4>building now, they're going to have aircraft with the wingtips

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<v Speaker 4>that fold up so you can still put it in

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<v Speaker 4>the same place. But you know, and then we pulled

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<v Speaker 4>away from the onto the Tormac flip the wings out.

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<v Speaker 4>It's I mean, they are basically taking advantage of what

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<v Speaker 4>they have right now, which is a lot of money

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<v Speaker 4>as well as not the look of all the stock

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<v Speaker 4>markets saying, oh my god, you're a terrible company, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>which is what Boeing has to deal with right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, just like in the late nineteen eighties when Airbus

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<v Speaker 3>was the upstart against Boeing, now there's another upstart out

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<v Speaker 3>there that should have what, for practical purposes is a

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<v Speaker 3>duopoly between Airbus and Boeing right but may not be forever.

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<v Speaker 3>Enter what China.

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<v Speaker 4>Has KOMAC, China's China's Aircraft Company, which a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>people in the West don't know because it has only

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<v Speaker 4>so far built planes for Chinese carriers. But the thing

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<v Speaker 4>that remember is that Chinese carriers have become major purchasers

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<v Speaker 4>of Western aircraft. Most of the aircraft flown by the

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<v Speaker 4>big three Chinese airlines or you know Boeing or Airbus,

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<v Speaker 4>and however a big percentage of the order books for

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<v Speaker 4>these American and European companies come from Chinese airlines. Now

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<v Speaker 4>China has decided it wants to be a player in

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<v Speaker 4>the aircraft business. It feels like, why are they giving

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<v Speaker 4>all this money to the West. They want to basically

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<v Speaker 4>be able to They want to take that doopoly and

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<v Speaker 4>make it into a triopoly, and that has got to

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<v Speaker 4>be a frightening thing for Boeing especially.

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<v Speaker 3>Can they pull that off? Outside of China in that

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<v Speaker 3>wood regulators in the US and Europe, well, you know, foreseeably,

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<v Speaker 3>uh approve that that's the question.

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<v Speaker 4>And part of that is, you know, safety issue. Part

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<v Speaker 4>of that is just engineering issue, and part of that

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<v Speaker 4>is a political issue, you know, in the sense that

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<v Speaker 4>you know, can China build an aircraft that flies? I

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<v Speaker 4>mean they're doing it now. They're doing it for Chinese

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<v Speaker 4>airlines and they finally have gotten non Chinese airline though

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<v Speaker 4>it's to bed air you know, that's but then they

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<v Speaker 4>are also marketing it now to West aircraft and they

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<v Speaker 4>will find some sales there. But the issue becomes one

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<v Speaker 4>of whether they want to take more of their own

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<v Speaker 4>cares and sort of persuade them to buy Chinese And

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<v Speaker 4>if they do that, that takes away a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>the sort of extra stuff in the art of books

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<v Speaker 4>of the Western aircraft makers.

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<v Speaker 1>I think what's so interesting too is you don't have

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<v Speaker 1>Airbus coming out and being like snap, you know, we've

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<v Speaker 1>got this all down because a three.

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<v Speaker 4>Eighty, right, and they understand that You've got to be

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<v Speaker 4>very careful to sort of make fun of somebody else

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<v Speaker 4>having a problem, because people will just turn it around

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<v Speaker 4>and say, well, you've screwed up before you made the

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<v Speaker 4>A three eighty, which sounded like a great plane. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>passengers loved it, double decker, it's really cool. The issue

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<v Speaker 4>was it was too late. It came to the market

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<v Speaker 4>at a time when people decided, well, when airlines decided,

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<v Speaker 4>we don't need a five hundred, five hundred and fifty

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<v Speaker 4>seed aircraft to take people back and forth. Instead, we

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<v Speaker 4>want smaller aircraft that can take people on what they

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<v Speaker 4>call long thin routes. Fuel efficiency, that's it, yea and

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<v Speaker 4>four engines that you know, that plane had four engines.

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<v Speaker 4>That's a lot of fuel. And so instead two engine

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<v Speaker 4>is what people want in wide bodies nowadays. And so

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<v Speaker 4>that plane lost money.

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<v Speaker 3>That brings us back to the narrow body seven thirty

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<v Speaker 3>seven A three twenty, which is certainly the bulk of

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<v Speaker 3>the market.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that's the workhords share of the airline markets where

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<v Speaker 4>eighty percent of the planes go. And so every you

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<v Speaker 4>will either succeed or fail based on how you do

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<v Speaker 4>in the narrow body market. And the reason that Airbus

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<v Speaker 4>was able to sustain basically a losing program in the

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<v Speaker 4>A three eighty, you know that ed years before they

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<v Speaker 4>had planned it to end and didn't make any money

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<v Speaker 4>for them in the long haul, is because they made

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<v Speaker 4>so much money on the A three twenty. Because the

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<v Speaker 4>narrow body market is the bread and butter of flying,

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<v Speaker 4>and if they can figure out a way to command

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<v Speaker 4>the next generation of those and not split that market

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<v Speaker 4>with Boeing, then they could have dominance of that market

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<v Speaker 4>for years to come.

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<v Speaker 1>At the same time, Boeing can think about its way

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<v Speaker 1>out of this is to be dominant in that in

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the next wave as well. Right well, that's

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<v Speaker 1>of the talent and the engineers.

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<v Speaker 4>And that's also the counterintuitive thing. A lot of people say,

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<v Speaker 4>why should Boying just say, you know, I'm done, I'm done.

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<v Speaker 4>You know what, maybe Boying can say, I don't care

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<v Speaker 4>that I don't really have the money to pursue a program.

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<v Speaker 4>Maybe I should you go ahead and do it now

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<v Speaker 4>because I don't have that big of an order book.

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<v Speaker 4>It's very difficult for Airbusts to do anything very quickly,

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<v Speaker 4>simply because it's sold out in its current eight three

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<v Speaker 4>twenties all the way through this decade into the next decade.

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<v Speaker 1>It's so popular, great visibility, but it also kind of hands.

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<v Speaker 4>It handcuts you, because basically you can't walk away from

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<v Speaker 4>a winner.

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<v Speaker 1>Great stuff, great history into kind of understanding what really

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<v Speaker 1>is a duopoly when it comes to airplanes. Jim ellis,

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<v Speaker 1>as always, we so appreciate it, Assistant Managing editor our

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. Right here in studio, you're.

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<v Speaker 2>Listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Can't Just Live

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<v Speaker 2>weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen on Apple,

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<v Speaker 1>Folks, We've pretty much done with the earnings. We had

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit of names trickling out last week, but

0:11:08.600 --> 0:11:11.920
<v Speaker 1>you might recall from the earnings wrap up how Meta

0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:14.240
<v Speaker 1>is still the king of digital advertising. The social media

0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:18.520
<v Speaker 1>giant overcame grim expectations for its advertising business, in part

0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:21.520
<v Speaker 1>due to high spending by China based advertisers and AI

0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:25.040
<v Speaker 1>generated video content. Users on apps such as Facebook and

0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:28.360
<v Speaker 1>Instagram spend twenty five percent more time watching videos. So

0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:30.520
<v Speaker 1>it's a thing Tim as.

0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:33.240
<v Speaker 3>Anyone who uses any of these apps, of course, it's

0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:36.320
<v Speaker 3>a thing well. Companies including Meta platforms, Amazon, Alphabet and

0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:39.000
<v Speaker 3>many more competing big time when it comes to the space.

0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:41.920
<v Speaker 3>Our next guest has a unique window into the digital

0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.000
<v Speaker 3>ads space. So let's get to the interview with us.

0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:47.160
<v Speaker 3>As Mark Zagorski, CEO of the publicly held double Verify,

0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:49.920
<v Speaker 3>it's a five point five billion dollar market cap company

0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:54.360
<v Speaker 3>does application software and digital media measurement. Customers of the company, Carol,

0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:57.319
<v Speaker 3>include a who's who of corporate America. You got Colgate, Palm, Olive, Ford,

0:11:57.640 --> 0:12:01.120
<v Speaker 3>Mandoli's Netflix, TikTok Twitter, and that's a cute according to

0:12:01.120 --> 0:12:02.680
<v Speaker 3>the Bloomberg supply chain function.

0:12:02.920 --> 0:12:05.160
<v Speaker 1>Mark, So great to have you here with us. First step,

0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:07.520
<v Speaker 1>so everyone understands your chief business kind of lay it

0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:09.800
<v Speaker 1>out for us because you do work with who's who

0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:10.920
<v Speaker 1>of corporate America.

0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:15.240
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so it's great being here. As you noted, we

0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:17.200
<v Speaker 5>work with some of the biggest brands on the planet,

0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:19.080
<v Speaker 5>and what we do is we help them ensure that

0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:22.520
<v Speaker 5>their ads spend is delivered in a brand safe environment,

0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:25.160
<v Speaker 5>that it's actually viewable by human and it's not fraud,

0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:29.000
<v Speaker 5>and that those transactions are secure. So think of us

0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:32.319
<v Speaker 5>as kind of advertising security software. But we see across

0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:37.079
<v Speaker 5>social across the open web, across mobile, across connected television.

0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:41.000
<v Speaker 5>If there's someplace that has ads, we're measuring or verifying

0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:41.520
<v Speaker 5>across it.

0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:43.760
<v Speaker 3>How do you know if something is brand safe or not?

0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:47.600
<v Speaker 5>So we look at a lot of different factors. So

0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:51.040
<v Speaker 5>if it's video, we can look at the actual video

0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:53.320
<v Speaker 5>that's running. We can listen to the audio track and

0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:56.400
<v Speaker 5>analyze it. We can look at the context or metadata

0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.120
<v Speaker 5>around it. So we basically look at all of different

0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:01.800
<v Speaker 5>contextual clues that we see, and we do this in

0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.360
<v Speaker 5>real time, and we're able to report back to our

0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:07.719
<v Speaker 5>advertisers whether or not their ads are running environments that

0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:10.960
<v Speaker 5>are aligned with what they want their brand to represent.

0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 3>A lot mark has been made over the past year

0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:16.880
<v Speaker 3>or so about what's happened to the company formerly known

0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:20.280
<v Speaker 3>as Twitter X of course, and the way that the

0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:23.560
<v Speaker 3>content on the platform has changed. Is X to you

0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:27.360
<v Speaker 3>still considered brand safe? Really?

0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:31.160
<v Speaker 5>You know, we look across all the different social platforms

0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:36.360
<v Speaker 5>and you know, we make a call. We categorize content.

0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:39.000
<v Speaker 5>It's up to our advertisers to determine whether or not

0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:42.439
<v Speaker 5>that content fits what they consider suitable or safe.

0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:44.920
<v Speaker 3>Does it seem like the companies are now saying it's

0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:46.720
<v Speaker 3>less safe than it previously was.

0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.160
<v Speaker 5>We have seen more advertisers move away from Twitter than

0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:55.240
<v Speaker 5>move toward it or X, but there are still advertisers

0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:57.560
<v Speaker 5>who are putting a hefty amount of spend against it.

0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:01.640
<v Speaker 5>It's about really threading that needle and X has worked

0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:04.280
<v Speaker 5>with us in a really positive way and saying, you know,

0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:06.599
<v Speaker 5>let's give the advertisers to tools to be able to

0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:08.560
<v Speaker 5>slice andize the content the way they want it.

0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:10.520
<v Speaker 1>Well, in terms of platforms that are out there, we

0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:12.959
<v Speaker 1>mentioned meta, but you know you got alphabet. Where is

0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:16.880
<v Speaker 1>it that you kind of see clients most likely to

0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:21.560
<v Speaker 1>put out some kind of a digital ad if you will,

0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:23.000
<v Speaker 1>and link it to their brand obviously.

0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:26.800
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so we see social and I think you just

0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:30.000
<v Speaker 5>mentioned earlier video social video is really eating up the

0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:33.600
<v Speaker 5>Internet right now. About seventy percent of social engagement now

0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:38.840
<v Speaker 5>is with video short form things like reels, YouTube, shorts, TikTok.

0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:43.200
<v Speaker 5>They're exploding. They're eating up a significant portion of consumer

0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:46.240
<v Speaker 5>time as we know, and that means that's where advertisers

0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:49.400
<v Speaker 5>are going. So, you know, we try to verify all transactions,

0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:53.360
<v Speaker 5>whether they're open web social against CTV, but we're seeing

0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.440
<v Speaker 5>more and more of those advertiser dollars and you know

0:14:56.920 --> 0:15:02.760
<v Speaker 5>heading towards you know, short form social video like TikTok. Yes, yeah,

0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:07.480
<v Speaker 5>TikTok's TikTok created the revolution, but reels and shorts are

0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:09.200
<v Speaker 5>really part of it as well now.

0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:11.280
<v Speaker 1>But I do wonder just to follow up though, on

0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:13.160
<v Speaker 1>what Tim brought up about some of the concerns around

0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:16.480
<v Speaker 1>X and whether it's TikTok. You know, between certainly US

0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:21.640
<v Speaker 1>China relations that these companies, increasingly Chinese based companies are

0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:26.000
<v Speaker 1>on regulators and policymakers here in the US on their radar.

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:29.240
<v Speaker 1>Do you continue to expect that to kind of play

0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 1>out here and what does that mean then in terms

0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:33.720
<v Speaker 1>of some of your clients where they're going to choose

0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:34.760
<v Speaker 1>to kind of put their ads.

0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:39.080
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean there's no doubt that advertisers want to

0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.600
<v Speaker 5>be where consumers are, right, and if consumers can't go

0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:44.920
<v Speaker 5>to one platform, they're going to go to another. Consumers

0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:48.040
<v Speaker 5>love short form video, So if for some reason a

0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:52.800
<v Speaker 5>platform loses favor because of government regulations or any other reason,

0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:55.840
<v Speaker 5>the advertisers are going to chase those consumers. So you

0:15:55.880 --> 0:15:59.240
<v Speaker 5>know the beneficiaries of a TikTok. You know, ban in

0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:01.520
<v Speaker 5>this country here is going to be Facebook and Google,

0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:01.960
<v Speaker 5>no doubt.

0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:07.160
<v Speaker 3>Do you think it's realistic that the US could possibly

0:16:07.320 --> 0:16:09.480
<v Speaker 3>force ByteDance to divest.

0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:13.560
<v Speaker 5>That that's a question above my pay grade. I would

0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:15.240
<v Speaker 5>never want to try to discern on what's going.

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:16.520
<v Speaker 3>But is it on your radar? Like this is a

0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:19.040
<v Speaker 3>real risk to not just to your business, but to

0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:20.960
<v Speaker 3>the space.

0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:24.160
<v Speaker 5>I mean, I think, you know, for the first time,

0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:26.040
<v Speaker 5>this is probably getting a bit more serious than it

0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:30.080
<v Speaker 5>has been in the past. Advertisers are pretty nimble though,

0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:33.440
<v Speaker 5>you know, if anything happens on one platform, the beauty

0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:36.200
<v Speaker 5>of digital is they can move very quickly to another platform.

0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:38.520
<v Speaker 5>I mean, they're looking for engagement, and they're looking for

0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:42.400
<v Speaker 5>deep engagement, and social video provides that no matter where.

0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:44.080
<v Speaker 3>It is, where's the best engagement right now?

0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:49.200
<v Speaker 5>You know, we you know, we don't look at kind

0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.880
<v Speaker 5>of time spent on each platform, but we know where

0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:54.800
<v Speaker 5>dollars are being spent, and dollars are being spent, you know,

0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:57.520
<v Speaker 5>pretty heavily across all the three that I mentioned in

0:16:57.560 --> 0:17:02.520
<v Speaker 5>short form video, so across across YouTube, shorts, and across

0:17:02.560 --> 0:17:03.480
<v Speaker 5>TikTok right now.

0:17:03.600 --> 0:17:05.200
<v Speaker 3>So the other another way to ask that question is

0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:08.080
<v Speaker 3>who who's struggling right now? Where's where's the money not going?

0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:12.480
<v Speaker 5>I think you're seeing more and more dollars and move

0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:17.560
<v Speaker 5>away from open web into more walled gardens, more social

0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:21.560
<v Speaker 5>into retail media networks, which are really benefiting right now.

0:17:21.720 --> 0:17:27.560
<v Speaker 5>So you know, powered by folks like Amazon, Walmart, Kroger, Macy's.

0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:31.399
<v Speaker 5>This is an entirely new emerging area where advertisers, you know,

0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:33.960
<v Speaker 5>love the data that those retail media networks produce and

0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:37.000
<v Speaker 5>they're able to see kind of a really strong closed

0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:38.680
<v Speaker 5>loop performance environment.

0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:40.480
<v Speaker 1>What's top of mine is we get ready for the

0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:42.720
<v Speaker 1>November election cycle. I mean, it's often running and we

0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:45.679
<v Speaker 1>know it's underway, and I mean I'm curious about what

0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:49.479
<v Speaker 1>is the balance if there is one among a brand,

0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 1>a company with high recognition that's looking for the clicks

0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:55.760
<v Speaker 1>right in terms of people viewing their ad but at

0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:58.040
<v Speaker 1>the same time not necessarily wanting to be next to

0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:02.560
<v Speaker 1>questionable content or you know, content that's going to either

0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:06.560
<v Speaker 1>amplify potentially things that they would rather not be associated with.

0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, you know, political

0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:14.000
<v Speaker 5>season always brings up a relatively challenging environment for advertisers.

0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:16.640
<v Speaker 5>They certainly want to be around where people are engaged.

0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:21.040
<v Speaker 5>People are engaged with political content. There's no doubt about it. However,

0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:24.720
<v Speaker 5>there's definitely topics that they don't want to be associated with.

0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:28.040
<v Speaker 5>And you know as recently as earlier this year, between

0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:31.680
<v Speaker 5>January and February, we saw a twenty two percent increase

0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:36.600
<v Speaker 5>in hate speech, for example, and that's just starting off

0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:39.239
<v Speaker 5>the year. So we know as the campaign gets more

0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:42.080
<v Speaker 5>and more cted up, we're going to see more instances

0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:45.679
<v Speaker 5>of what we call inflammatory news and political content, and

0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:50.480
<v Speaker 5>that's things like cyber bulleying, it's things like hate speech

0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:55.160
<v Speaker 5>and misinformation disinformation, So that will heat up, and hopefully

0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.159
<v Speaker 5>what we're able to do is give advertisers the ability

0:18:58.240 --> 0:19:01.160
<v Speaker 5>to avoid some of the content that they don't want

0:19:01.200 --> 0:19:03.920
<v Speaker 5>to be around, but still be part of the news engagement,

0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:06.400
<v Speaker 5>still be part of the stuff that that folks think

0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:12.760
<v Speaker 5>is important without having to avoid news or relevant content altogether.

0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:15.439
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's complicated, hate listen, Mark, I feel like we

0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:17.719
<v Speaker 1>covered a lot of ground but also scratched the surface

0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:20.679
<v Speaker 1>in some way. So hopefully you'll come back soon. Mark Sigurski,

0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:24.040
<v Speaker 1>CEO of the publicly held company double Verify, stuck by

0:19:24.040 --> 0:19:27.160
<v Speaker 1>the way down about twelve percent so far year to date,

0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:29.639
<v Speaker 1>by trending a little bit higher in today's session.

0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:35.359
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:38.239
<v Speaker 2>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car

0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:41.320
<v Speaker 2>Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:44.639
<v Speaker 2>can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:49.800
<v Speaker 2>New York station just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:19:50.680 --> 0:19:53.119
<v Speaker 1>Reddit disclosing for their details of what is set to

0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:55.320
<v Speaker 1>be one of the year's biggest IPOs, with the company

0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:58.520
<v Speaker 1>and some existing shareholders seeking to raise as much as

0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:01.360
<v Speaker 1>seven hundred and forty eight million dollars.

0:20:01.080 --> 0:20:02.840
<v Speaker 3>And Reddit and the holders are planning to sell twenty

0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:05.040
<v Speaker 3>two million shares for about thirty one to thirty four

0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:07.840
<v Speaker 3>dollars each. That's what the social media platform said in

0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:10.920
<v Speaker 3>a filing today. About fifteen point three million of those

0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:12.680
<v Speaker 3>shares will be sold by the company and the rest

0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:15.200
<v Speaker 3>by investors who are Reddit employees.

0:20:15.240 --> 0:20:17.080
<v Speaker 1>It's been quite a slog though, to get to this point,

0:20:17.200 --> 0:20:20.159
<v Speaker 1>so let's get to it. And keep in mind that

0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:22.000
<v Speaker 1>what Tim just laid out the top of at the

0:20:22.000 --> 0:20:24.520
<v Speaker 1>top of the range, Reddit would have a market value

0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:27.320
<v Speaker 1>of five point four billion dollars, So that's a real

0:20:27.359 --> 0:20:28.240
<v Speaker 1>market cap if you will.

0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:30.439
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, let's get it over to Amy or she's a

0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:32.760
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg News equity capital markets reporter and she's here in

0:20:32.800 --> 0:20:37.600
<v Speaker 3>the Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio. Just for context, Amy Snap

0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:41.320
<v Speaker 3>is about a nineteen point five billion dollar company Meta

0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:43.520
<v Speaker 3>platforms of course much much bigger.

0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:45.920
<v Speaker 1>Is that really apples to apples there?

0:20:46.240 --> 0:20:48.160
<v Speaker 3>But look, they're no. I mean it is because these

0:20:48.200 --> 0:20:51.719
<v Speaker 3>are both supported by advertisers. Like we spoke to earlier

0:20:51.720 --> 0:20:54.520
<v Speaker 3>in our program, the bulk of the advertising money is

0:20:54.560 --> 0:20:56.880
<v Speaker 3>going to these short form videos. And then here comes

0:20:56.920 --> 0:21:00.879
<v Speaker 3>Reddit with essentially a technology and a product that is

0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:04.600
<v Speaker 3>what at this point almost two decades old, hitting the

0:21:04.600 --> 0:21:05.360
<v Speaker 3>capital markets.

0:21:05.640 --> 0:21:07.560
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, but then a lot of people are looking back

0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:11.280
<v Speaker 6>at read it and like comparing it to Meta when

0:21:11.320 --> 0:21:14.760
<v Speaker 6>it was still Facebook, when it first listed on the

0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:16.920
<v Speaker 6>US doop market, and then that was a time when

0:21:16.960 --> 0:21:19.560
<v Speaker 6>it was about to go profitable, and then this was

0:21:19.640 --> 0:21:21.359
<v Speaker 6>the time as well. I read it as well, So

0:21:21.800 --> 0:21:24.760
<v Speaker 6>there are some comparisons, but it's also like it's interesting to.

0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:27.880
<v Speaker 3>Okay, I just want to point this out. Meta platforms now,

0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:30.000
<v Speaker 3>the company formerly known as Facebook was started in two

0:21:30.000 --> 0:21:33.720
<v Speaker 3>thousand and four. Reddit was started in two thousand and five. Yes,

0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:37.200
<v Speaker 3>so they're almost the exact same age, so it's hard.

0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:39.440
<v Speaker 3>It's hard for me to make that comparison that this

0:21:39.480 --> 0:21:41.360
<v Speaker 3>is Facebook, you know, pre ipo.

0:21:41.640 --> 0:21:44.720
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so here's what I'm interested in, amy is what

0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:47.080
<v Speaker 1>is the business that is Reddit? Because Tim, didn't you

0:21:47.240 --> 0:21:48.280
<v Speaker 1>say you're back in Reddit.

0:21:48.359 --> 0:21:50.000
<v Speaker 3>I'm liking Reddit for the first time over the last

0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:52.200
<v Speaker 3>few months. I find it like, so you're too late.

0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:52.639
<v Speaker 6>For the direction.

0:21:53.920 --> 0:21:55.440
<v Speaker 1>But you bring it up in the newsroom and people

0:21:55.440 --> 0:21:57.000
<v Speaker 1>are like, oh, yeah, I'm on Reddit, like you know,

0:21:57.080 --> 0:22:00.439
<v Speaker 1>like people go to it for answers, right or exactlys

0:22:00.440 --> 0:22:03.080
<v Speaker 1>and like minded people niche.

0:22:03.119 --> 0:22:05.440
<v Speaker 3>It's super niche, Like you can find like plumbers to

0:22:05.480 --> 0:22:07.760
<v Speaker 3>help you with plumbing, you can find drywall people to

0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:09.600
<v Speaker 3>help you with drywall, like it's crazy, all right.

0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:12.440
<v Speaker 6>A lot of people are sticky users of the platform

0:22:12.480 --> 0:22:14.800
<v Speaker 6>as well. But then it's also funny how half of

0:22:14.880 --> 0:22:17.320
<v Speaker 6>the users do not have a lock in. They also,

0:22:17.520 --> 0:22:21.359
<v Speaker 6>like me, I would not go on to Reddit. On Reddit,

0:22:21.960 --> 0:22:24.320
<v Speaker 6>google it, and then it will leadst I do. And

0:22:24.440 --> 0:22:27.439
<v Speaker 6>especially because Reddit has a lot of original content. So

0:22:27.680 --> 0:22:30.840
<v Speaker 6>like Google with this se O and all will really

0:22:30.880 --> 0:22:34.200
<v Speaker 6>direct traffic with se The social search.

0:22:33.960 --> 0:22:36.879
<v Speaker 3>Engine optimization thank you is that is that helpful to

0:22:36.880 --> 0:22:38.560
<v Speaker 3>reddits bottom line. Carol and I were going through the

0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:41.240
<v Speaker 3>s one earlier. They said, we get substantially all of

0:22:41.240 --> 0:22:43.960
<v Speaker 3>our advertising. I think is the exact of our revenue

0:22:43.960 --> 0:22:44.719
<v Speaker 3>from advertising.

0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:45.720
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it is tough.

0:22:46.359 --> 0:22:48.840
<v Speaker 6>It is tough, but also it also it helps and

0:22:48.880 --> 0:22:51.440
<v Speaker 6>not helps at the same time, because while it benefits,

0:22:51.480 --> 0:22:55.000
<v Speaker 6>there are also peers. When Google or Facebook or other

0:22:55.200 --> 0:22:59.000
<v Speaker 6>places where essentially it will lead to Reddit may change

0:22:59.160 --> 0:23:02.520
<v Speaker 6>is tools and like the parameters and then that might hit.

0:23:02.640 --> 0:23:05.280
<v Speaker 6>So like it's good and bad, but also the company

0:23:05.320 --> 0:23:09.000
<v Speaker 6>is diversifying itself outside of advertising. So at the end

0:23:09.000 --> 0:23:11.879
<v Speaker 6>of the day, the company CEO said, everything on Reddit

0:23:11.960 --> 0:23:14.199
<v Speaker 6>is at the end of the day linked to buying

0:23:14.240 --> 0:23:17.920
<v Speaker 6>and selling a lot, like whether it's people actually shopping

0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:22.160
<v Speaker 6>new shoes, yes, but well search for things that will

0:23:22.240 --> 0:23:24.600
<v Speaker 6>lead to advertising. So if you're buying a new pair

0:23:24.600 --> 0:23:26.960
<v Speaker 6>of running shoes and then you want to see which

0:23:27.000 --> 0:23:31.360
<v Speaker 6>model fits a long distance running better or anything in particular,

0:23:31.440 --> 0:23:34.879
<v Speaker 6>people have really niche as you said, niche needs for

0:23:34.960 --> 0:23:36.919
<v Speaker 6>things and then they will go to Reddit. But it's

0:23:36.960 --> 0:23:40.320
<v Speaker 6>also like the company is diversifying beyond just advertising.

0:23:40.359 --> 0:23:41.119
<v Speaker 3>What does that look like?

0:23:42.119 --> 0:23:45.080
<v Speaker 6>It's it's selling licensing some of the data that it's

0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:47.520
<v Speaker 6>been kind of doing for twenty years.

0:23:47.840 --> 0:23:51.200
<v Speaker 1>That's what I find interesting in your story the Reddit

0:23:51.280 --> 0:23:53.320
<v Speaker 1>saying it's in the early stages of allowing third parties

0:23:53.359 --> 0:23:56.960
<v Speaker 1>to license access to data on the platform, including to

0:23:57.040 --> 0:24:01.679
<v Speaker 1>train artificial intelligence models. So is it you know, is

0:24:01.680 --> 0:24:03.520
<v Speaker 1>that what it's going to be all about? That they

0:24:03.560 --> 0:24:06.240
<v Speaker 1>have a lot of people like Tim and others who

0:24:06.280 --> 0:24:10.800
<v Speaker 1>are spending some time there sharing their data. That's valuable.

0:24:11.119 --> 0:24:13.919
<v Speaker 6>That's very valuable, and especially it's not only just for

0:24:14.000 --> 0:24:17.080
<v Speaker 6>Google for AI to learn, but also for companies like

0:24:17.160 --> 0:24:19.440
<v Speaker 6>to actually see what are the trend or hitchebonds, to

0:24:19.480 --> 0:24:21.720
<v Speaker 6>see what people are talking about like, so there are

0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:24.480
<v Speaker 6>many uses of those data, but whether.

0:24:24.240 --> 0:24:26.080
<v Speaker 1>There is that a business? But is that a business?

0:24:26.119 --> 0:24:29.680
<v Speaker 6>Well, they've got sixty million for a one year runway

0:24:29.800 --> 0:24:32.800
<v Speaker 6>for with the with a deal with Google, so it's actually, yeah,

0:24:32.840 --> 0:24:33.520
<v Speaker 6>a pretty penny.

0:24:33.520 --> 0:24:35.560
<v Speaker 3>Twitter used to do this and make money through selling

0:24:35.600 --> 0:24:38.400
<v Speaker 3>the fire hose of data, and I don't know if

0:24:38.400 --> 0:24:40.520
<v Speaker 3>they're still doing it. This is a private company, so

0:24:40.560 --> 0:24:42.440
<v Speaker 3>it's hard to know. But this was a big selling

0:24:42.480 --> 0:24:44.320
<v Speaker 3>point of Twitter back in the day that was like, hey,

0:24:44.359 --> 0:24:46.760
<v Speaker 3>we have real time information they would actually sell to

0:24:46.800 --> 0:24:49.560
<v Speaker 3>news organizations that makes sense, and they would say, okay,

0:24:49.600 --> 0:24:51.640
<v Speaker 3>well we have you know, people all over the world

0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:53.760
<v Speaker 3>who are monitoring what's going on on the ground. If

0:24:53.760 --> 0:24:56.160
<v Speaker 3>we see signals of some breaking news event, we can

0:24:56.200 --> 0:24:57.959
<v Speaker 3>get that to you before other people know about it.

0:24:58.000 --> 0:24:59.679
<v Speaker 1>Well, I'm glad you brought that up, because that's what

0:24:59.720 --> 0:25:00.960
<v Speaker 1>I was. You know, Tim and I were talking the

0:25:01.000 --> 0:25:02.800
<v Speaker 1>news room about the same and just I'm trying to say,

0:25:02.880 --> 0:25:05.359
<v Speaker 1>is it like Twitter, like we all loved it or

0:25:05.480 --> 0:25:09.280
<v Speaker 1>love it? Maybe still x and found it really useful

0:25:09.280 --> 0:25:11.199
<v Speaker 1>certainly for those of us in the news industry like

0:25:11.240 --> 0:25:14.480
<v Speaker 1>to find information, and yet the business model has struggled.

0:25:14.600 --> 0:25:16.000
<v Speaker 1>Is that the same story for Reddit?

0:25:16.359 --> 0:25:20.280
<v Speaker 6>It's well, it's similar, Like you said, it takes eighteen

0:25:20.400 --> 0:25:24.400
<v Speaker 6>nineteen years for it to become profitable, so long run,

0:25:24.480 --> 0:25:26.800
<v Speaker 6>that's a very long one rate. But then at this

0:25:26.880 --> 0:25:30.920
<v Speaker 6>particular point in time, there are a lot of like tailwinds.

0:25:31.119 --> 0:25:34.280
<v Speaker 6>So yeah, it's really up to the investor whether they

0:25:34.320 --> 0:25:37.600
<v Speaker 6>actually believe in the growth going forward and not looking

0:25:37.600 --> 0:25:39.359
<v Speaker 6>back and saying you take it so long.

0:25:40.240 --> 0:25:42.360
<v Speaker 3>What does it say about the IPO market that this

0:25:42.480 --> 0:25:43.960
<v Speaker 3>could be one of the year's.

0:25:43.680 --> 0:25:46.960
<v Speaker 6>Biggest IPOs, So right now, the IPO market is still

0:25:47.000 --> 0:25:50.320
<v Speaker 6>pretty subdued so far this year, only seven billion raised,

0:25:50.480 --> 0:25:52.840
<v Speaker 6>Like this is already like Martians.

0:25:52.440 --> 0:25:54.960
<v Speaker 1>So big fish, little pond, little fish, big pond.

0:25:55.240 --> 0:25:57.600
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, and then we also had like one of the

0:25:57.640 --> 0:26:01.480
<v Speaker 6>best few weeks in ACM market just secondary share offering

0:26:01.720 --> 0:26:06.399
<v Speaker 6>walk trays, convertible bonds. Those were huge and IPO hasn't

0:26:06.400 --> 0:26:09.639
<v Speaker 6>actually benefited that much. So hopefully this will get people

0:26:09.720 --> 0:26:12.440
<v Speaker 6>talking and then create that buzz, and I guess read

0:26:12.480 --> 0:26:14.320
<v Speaker 6>it wants to create that buzz with a direk share

0:26:14.359 --> 0:26:14.920
<v Speaker 6>sale as well.

0:26:15.000 --> 0:26:17.399
<v Speaker 3>Remind us ARMS IPO was almost five billion dollars.

0:26:17.520 --> 0:26:19.320
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, and then it went up like one hundred and

0:26:19.320 --> 0:26:20.400
<v Speaker 6>forty percent.

0:26:20.160 --> 0:26:23.159
<v Speaker 3>Since then, So okay, so seven hundred it is. But

0:26:23.160 --> 0:26:24.800
<v Speaker 3>I'm just saying if that, if this is the biggest

0:26:24.800 --> 0:26:28.720
<v Speaker 3>IPO of twenty twenty four, then yeah, you know, yeah,

0:26:28.960 --> 0:26:30.840
<v Speaker 3>it's a respective fraction of what ARM was.

0:26:31.440 --> 0:26:33.760
<v Speaker 6>We also had like earlier this year in January there

0:26:33.800 --> 0:26:37.040
<v Speaker 6>were two a billion dollar share sale as well, amer

0:26:37.119 --> 0:26:40.280
<v Speaker 6>Sports and also CASSPI, which is just a secondary listing

0:26:41.000 --> 0:26:44.760
<v Speaker 6>from UK. So it's up there, but not top tops.

0:26:44.800 --> 0:26:47.600
<v Speaker 1>Still a subdued market, yes, overall, all right, great stuff,

0:26:47.880 --> 0:26:50.360
<v Speaker 1>so appreciate it, Amy or Equity Capital Markets to putter

0:26:50.359 --> 0:26:53.480
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News joining us here in our interactive broker's studio.

0:26:53.600 --> 0:26:56.920
<v Speaker 1>Thank you, Amy, mark.

0:26:58.520 --> 0:26:59.200
<v Speaker 4>A journal.

0:27:00.200 --> 0:27:02.920
<v Speaker 7>How about you let me drive? No, no, no, no, who's.

0:27:02.720 --> 0:27:03.480
<v Speaker 4>Going to drive?

0:27:03.760 --> 0:27:04.840
<v Speaker 7>Honey?

0:27:05.040 --> 0:27:05.359
<v Speaker 3>Please?

0:27:05.480 --> 0:27:07.000
<v Speaker 4>How do the riding gravels?

0:27:07.359 --> 0:27:08.720
<v Speaker 1>Let's mate, I want to try it.

0:27:11.000 --> 0:27:17.040
<v Speaker 3>It's a good question time. This is the drive to

0:27:17.080 --> 0:27:18.919
<v Speaker 3>the Globe dot com thing.

0:27:19.040 --> 0:27:22.119
<v Speaker 2>Well by around yoga don on Bloomberg Radio.

0:27:22.359 --> 0:27:25.080
<v Speaker 1>All right, everybody, just about eighteen and a half minutes

0:27:25.160 --> 0:27:28.879
<v Speaker 1>left in today's trading session, Carol Master along with Tim's standup,

0:27:28.960 --> 0:27:32.480
<v Speaker 1>and you just had Charlie uh breaking down the trade here.

0:27:32.760 --> 0:27:35.560
<v Speaker 1>And you know there's a great story Tim that's on

0:27:35.640 --> 0:27:36.680
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg terminal.

0:27:36.840 --> 0:27:37.920
<v Speaker 3>Yes, which one is it?

0:27:37.920 --> 0:27:41.159
<v Speaker 1>It has to do with Magnificent the Magnificent seven, right,

0:27:41.160 --> 0:27:42.879
<v Speaker 1>which is something we talk a lot about it.

0:27:42.880 --> 0:27:45.800
<v Speaker 3>They're still all magnificent and well.

0:27:46.480 --> 0:27:48.520
<v Speaker 1>JP Morgan's coming out with a call the ranks of

0:27:48.560 --> 0:27:50.960
<v Speaker 1>Wall Streets strategist playing down concerns about a bubble in

0:27:51.080 --> 0:27:55.240
<v Speaker 1>US technology mega cap stocks. We're seeing the play down

0:27:55.480 --> 0:27:58.520
<v Speaker 1>and saying, don't worry. That's growing. Team over at JP

0:27:58.600 --> 0:28:01.800
<v Speaker 1>Morgan Chase was the latest flag that valuations of the

0:28:01.840 --> 0:28:04.359
<v Speaker 1>seven tech giants that have powered the record breaking rally

0:28:04.359 --> 0:28:07.480
<v Speaker 1>on Wall Street are currently lower relative to the rest

0:28:07.520 --> 0:28:10.160
<v Speaker 1>of the S and P five hundred than the average

0:28:10.160 --> 0:28:11.760
<v Speaker 1>of the past five years.

0:28:11.800 --> 0:28:13.919
<v Speaker 3>Okay, here's what the analyst wrote. Quote, there is a

0:28:13.960 --> 0:28:16.320
<v Speaker 3>concern over the very strong performance of the Mags seven,

0:28:16.359 --> 0:28:18.400
<v Speaker 3>but we note that the group is currently trading less

0:28:18.400 --> 0:28:21.399
<v Speaker 3>stretch than a few years ago given earnings delivery. This

0:28:21.480 --> 0:28:23.320
<v Speaker 3>is not to say that the group is immune to

0:28:23.359 --> 0:28:26.600
<v Speaker 3>profit disappointments ahead, but in the case of general earnings disappointments,

0:28:26.600 --> 0:28:30.200
<v Speaker 3>these stocks could still hold out better than traditional cyclicals

0:28:30.200 --> 0:28:34.040
<v Speaker 3>that are reliant on the economy. This again not my words,

0:28:34.080 --> 0:28:36.359
<v Speaker 3>not Bloomberg News as words. These are coming from the

0:28:36.400 --> 0:28:37.640
<v Speaker 3>team over at Jpmorton Chase.

0:28:37.680 --> 0:28:39.560
<v Speaker 1>The Magnificent seven stocks you know who they are. We're

0:28:39.560 --> 0:28:45.400
<v Speaker 1>talking about Apple, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook owner, Meta platforms,

0:28:45.600 --> 0:28:50.760
<v Speaker 1>Microsoft and Vidia, and Tesla. These Magnificent seven had driven

0:28:50.800 --> 0:28:52.440
<v Speaker 1>the biggest gains in the S and P five hundred

0:28:52.480 --> 0:28:55.440
<v Speaker 1>last year. The benchmark index has scaled all time highs

0:28:55.440 --> 0:28:57.640
<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty four, we've seen it continue, but the

0:28:57.680 --> 0:29:01.840
<v Speaker 1>performance of those megacaps has diverged more recent Tesla Yeah.

0:29:01.600 --> 0:29:06.400
<v Speaker 3>For example, Well, right, Carol, just since the start of

0:29:06.440 --> 0:29:06.760
<v Speaker 3>the year.

0:29:06.920 --> 0:29:11.160
<v Speaker 1>Meantime, you've got Ai, Darling and Vidia at a record high,

0:29:11.240 --> 0:29:13.280
<v Speaker 1>or of has sword to record high, and I think

0:29:13.320 --> 0:29:14.080
<v Speaker 1>I believe.

0:29:13.960 --> 0:29:15.160
<v Speaker 3>Seventy four percent this year.

0:29:15.240 --> 0:29:17.160
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and I think it's your top performer once again

0:29:17.200 --> 0:29:19.120
<v Speaker 1>in the S and P five hundred. It was last year,

0:29:19.160 --> 0:29:21.400
<v Speaker 1>and we've seen it a top the list again this year.

0:29:21.800 --> 0:29:24.760
<v Speaker 1>Apple shares entered a technical correction. We talked about that

0:29:24.760 --> 0:29:29.400
<v Speaker 1>with Abigail earlier, a technical correction entering that this month

0:29:30.160 --> 0:29:34.200
<v Speaker 1>concerns about slumping iPhone sales and regulatory pressure, so that

0:29:34.200 --> 0:29:35.480
<v Speaker 1>one's been under pressure as well.

0:29:35.960 --> 0:29:38.960
<v Speaker 3>Okay, let's go get to our drive to the closed

0:29:38.960 --> 0:29:42.280
<v Speaker 3>guest Michael Sheldon, executive director at RDM Financial, joining us

0:29:42.320 --> 0:29:44.840
<v Speaker 3>on the phone in Connecticut. Michael, good to have you

0:29:44.840 --> 0:29:45.120
<v Speaker 3>with us.

0:29:45.120 --> 0:29:46.480
<v Speaker 2>How are you good?

0:29:46.720 --> 0:29:48.280
<v Speaker 7>Thanks very much, pleasure being with you.

0:29:48.400 --> 0:29:50.280
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's always good to have you with us. Hey,

0:29:50.280 --> 0:29:51.280
<v Speaker 3>I wanted to just I don't know if you had

0:29:51.320 --> 0:29:52.840
<v Speaker 3>a chance to listen to what we were talking about

0:29:52.840 --> 0:29:55.960
<v Speaker 3>about the Magnificent seven. But on one hand, on the

0:29:56.000 --> 0:29:59.560
<v Speaker 3>one hand, you have all this uh all these questions

0:29:59.560 --> 0:30:01.320
<v Speaker 3>from people about whether or not we're in some sort

0:30:01.320 --> 0:30:02.640
<v Speaker 3>of bubble. And then on the other hand, you have

0:30:03.040 --> 0:30:04.360
<v Speaker 3>companies like JP Morgan coming.

0:30:04.280 --> 0:30:07.880
<v Speaker 1>Out that sacks that are below the technology.

0:30:07.440 --> 0:30:10.360
<v Speaker 3>Coming on saying that that valuations are actually okay. How

0:30:10.360 --> 0:30:11.240
<v Speaker 3>do you see things?

0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:14.719
<v Speaker 7>Well, there's definitely been some concentration among the top stocks

0:30:14.720 --> 0:30:17.000
<v Speaker 7>in the market over the past say the year or so,

0:30:17.600 --> 0:30:19.680
<v Speaker 7>and that's kind of got turbocharged a little bit with

0:30:19.720 --> 0:30:23.480
<v Speaker 7>all the excitement about artificial intelligence. So, I mean, artificial

0:30:23.480 --> 0:30:26.920
<v Speaker 7>intelligence is definitely real. We're probably in the early stages

0:30:26.960 --> 0:30:29.760
<v Speaker 7>of this. But I think if you look at the valuation,

0:30:30.760 --> 0:30:33.600
<v Speaker 7>the markets come pretty far over a relatively short period

0:30:33.640 --> 0:30:36.600
<v Speaker 7>of time since the October lows of last year. So

0:30:37.360 --> 0:30:39.160
<v Speaker 7>if you look at the markets right now, we're trading

0:30:39.160 --> 0:30:41.680
<v Speaker 7>at about twenty one times forward earnings for the S

0:30:41.720 --> 0:30:44.840
<v Speaker 7>and P, which is about twenty three percent above its

0:30:44.880 --> 0:30:47.800
<v Speaker 7>long term average. But if you look beneath the surface

0:30:47.800 --> 0:30:50.440
<v Speaker 7>a little bit, the median stock, so half are above

0:30:50.480 --> 0:30:53.120
<v Speaker 7>and half are below, the median stock is only trading

0:30:53.120 --> 0:30:56.680
<v Speaker 7>at about fourteen percent above its long term average. So

0:30:57.760 --> 0:31:01.120
<v Speaker 7>a small number of stocks are trading it above average valuations.

0:31:01.520 --> 0:31:04.240
<v Speaker 7>Many times that's warranted by the growth they're producing. But

0:31:04.360 --> 0:31:06.240
<v Speaker 7>that can get they can get a little bit ahead

0:31:06.240 --> 0:31:08.640
<v Speaker 7>of themselves. But there are stocks under the surface that

0:31:08.680 --> 0:31:09.760
<v Speaker 7>are worth investigating.

0:31:09.880 --> 0:31:11.560
<v Speaker 1>And that's the point, right, If you broaden out and

0:31:11.600 --> 0:31:14.320
<v Speaker 1>really look at the entire S and P five hundred universe,

0:31:14.600 --> 0:31:17.120
<v Speaker 1>you find out that there's a few that are skewing

0:31:17.160 --> 0:31:19.120
<v Speaker 1>it once again in terms of valuations.

0:31:19.600 --> 0:31:21.560
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, that's a really good point. I mean, we've been

0:31:21.560 --> 0:31:23.440
<v Speaker 7>looking for the market to broaden out for some time

0:31:23.480 --> 0:31:25.680
<v Speaker 7>and it really hasn't happened. So, I mean, if you

0:31:25.720 --> 0:31:27.600
<v Speaker 7>look at if you take a step back over the

0:31:27.640 --> 0:31:29.880
<v Speaker 7>last ten years or so, ten plus years, which is

0:31:29.920 --> 0:31:34.479
<v Speaker 7>a long time, growth is outperformed value, large is outperformed small,

0:31:34.680 --> 0:31:36.840
<v Speaker 7>and the US is outperformed far and for much of

0:31:36.840 --> 0:31:39.560
<v Speaker 7>the past ten plus years. So a lot of people,

0:31:39.640 --> 0:31:42.560
<v Speaker 7>ourselves included, have been sort of we've been overweight those things.

0:31:42.600 --> 0:31:45.240
<v Speaker 7>But on the surface, we've been waiting for other parts

0:31:45.240 --> 0:31:47.520
<v Speaker 7>in the market to participate. So I'll tell you one

0:31:47.560 --> 0:31:50.600
<v Speaker 7>other thing that the RSP, which is the equal weighted

0:31:50.680 --> 0:31:53.360
<v Speaker 7>S and P five hundred, over the past few days

0:31:53.360 --> 0:31:54.760
<v Speaker 7>it hit a new all time high.

0:31:54.800 --> 0:31:56.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I was just gonna ask about that first.

0:31:56.240 --> 0:31:58.760
<v Speaker 7>Time, but that's the first time in five hundred and

0:31:58.840 --> 0:32:01.760
<v Speaker 7>forty four days, which is the third longest period since

0:32:01.840 --> 0:32:02.640
<v Speaker 7>nineteen ninety.

0:32:02.760 --> 0:32:04.480
<v Speaker 3>So does that tell you doesn't that tell you that

0:32:04.480 --> 0:32:05.520
<v Speaker 3>it's broadening out now?

0:32:05.600 --> 0:32:08.760
<v Speaker 7>Finally, yeah, I think over the past few weeks only

0:32:08.960 --> 0:32:10.840
<v Speaker 7>if you look at the S and P five hundred

0:32:10.920 --> 0:32:14.120
<v Speaker 7>versus the equal weighted RSP, for example, over the past

0:32:14.160 --> 0:32:16.960
<v Speaker 7>one week and over the past one month, the RSP

0:32:17.160 --> 0:32:19.959
<v Speaker 7>equal weighted indexes outperformed the S and P five hundred.

0:32:20.160 --> 0:32:21.680
<v Speaker 7>But it's kind of a little bit early to say

0:32:21.720 --> 0:32:23.880
<v Speaker 7>that's the beginning of a real sea change just yet.

0:32:24.040 --> 0:32:26.440
<v Speaker 1>But it's good to see a broadening out, even the

0:32:26.440 --> 0:32:27.320
<v Speaker 1>early signs of it.

0:32:27.480 --> 0:32:31.840
<v Speaker 7>Right Absolutely, parts of the market could we're getting somewhat overheated,

0:32:32.160 --> 0:32:34.560
<v Speaker 7>and I think it's good to see broader participation, and

0:32:34.880 --> 0:32:37.760
<v Speaker 7>really that would reflect that the market itself is doing better,

0:32:37.880 --> 0:32:42.200
<v Speaker 7>The economy is reasonably well, people's forecast four profits going

0:32:42.200 --> 0:32:45.080
<v Speaker 7>forward is more positive. So those are all positive things,

0:32:45.160 --> 0:32:45.680
<v Speaker 7>all right.

0:32:45.560 --> 0:32:47.640
<v Speaker 1>Broaden out, broaden out, broaden out. This is what we

0:32:47.760 --> 0:32:49.880
<v Speaker 1>like to do. So the rustle two thousands up only

0:32:50.160 --> 0:32:53.560
<v Speaker 1>and not even quite two percent this year, How significant

0:32:53.600 --> 0:32:55.200
<v Speaker 1>or how closely. Do you watch also what's going on

0:32:55.240 --> 0:32:58.000
<v Speaker 1>with small caps, which are going to be probably more tied,

0:32:58.080 --> 0:32:59.840
<v Speaker 1>much more closely tied to what goes on in the

0:32:59.920 --> 0:33:00.760
<v Speaker 1>US economy.

0:33:01.480 --> 0:33:03.400
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, that's a big part of the picture as well.

0:33:03.560 --> 0:33:06.040
<v Speaker 7>So small caps, as they continue to rise, will really

0:33:06.080 --> 0:33:08.920
<v Speaker 7>play catch up. And the question is do you want

0:33:08.920 --> 0:33:10.640
<v Speaker 7>to be in the market leaders, which are the large

0:33:10.640 --> 0:33:12.880
<v Speaker 7>cap growth stocks, or do you want to play for

0:33:12.920 --> 0:33:15.360
<v Speaker 7>a rebound. So we think you want to have your

0:33:15.520 --> 0:33:18.560
<v Speaker 7>sort of you want to have some diversification because again,

0:33:18.600 --> 0:33:20.959
<v Speaker 7>if the RSP equal weight it is doing better, that

0:33:21.000 --> 0:33:23.440
<v Speaker 7>means people are more optimistic. They're willing to sort of

0:33:24.080 --> 0:33:25.880
<v Speaker 7>maybe get involved in some of the parts of the

0:33:25.880 --> 0:33:28.920
<v Speaker 7>market that have lagged so far. So it's definitely too

0:33:28.960 --> 0:33:31.840
<v Speaker 7>early to say that small caps have started to outperform.

0:33:32.120 --> 0:33:33.640
<v Speaker 7>You also have to keep in mind if you look

0:33:33.680 --> 0:33:36.360
<v Speaker 7>at the Russell two thousand, for example, more than forty

0:33:36.400 --> 0:33:39.240
<v Speaker 7>percent of those stocks are currently unprofitable, so you do

0:33:39.360 --> 0:33:40.480
<v Speaker 7>have to be wary of that.

0:33:41.480 --> 0:33:45.400
<v Speaker 3>Hey, Michael, hell, how do are we for a pullback

0:33:45.760 --> 0:33:46.200
<v Speaker 3>right now?

0:33:47.440 --> 0:33:49.800
<v Speaker 7>I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of pullback

0:33:49.840 --> 0:33:52.680
<v Speaker 7>or correction over the next few weeks. The market's been

0:33:52.760 --> 0:33:56.000
<v Speaker 7>up sixteen of the last nineteen weeks, for example. And

0:33:56.320 --> 0:33:59.080
<v Speaker 7>if you look at things like sentiment surveys, for example,

0:33:59.160 --> 0:34:02.800
<v Speaker 7>like the American is Asociation of Individual investors or intelligence

0:34:03.320 --> 0:34:07.080
<v Speaker 7>the investors' intelligence numbers, they're kind of frothy right now.

0:34:07.160 --> 0:34:10.759
<v Speaker 7>So I wouldn't be surprised see somewhat of a pullback

0:34:11.040 --> 0:34:13.400
<v Speaker 7>or a correction over the next few weeks. But I

0:34:13.400 --> 0:34:15.520
<v Speaker 7>think you have to keep your sort of eye on

0:34:15.560 --> 0:34:18.120
<v Speaker 7>the ball. As long as the economy is doing reasonably well.

0:34:18.360 --> 0:34:21.880
<v Speaker 7>People have jobs and they're spending. Inflation is trending lower,

0:34:21.920 --> 0:34:24.279
<v Speaker 7>which is important. It's not going to happen. It's not

0:34:24.320 --> 0:34:27.560
<v Speaker 7>going to come down every month, and the earnings outlook

0:34:27.560 --> 0:34:30.279
<v Speaker 7>continues to be positive. I think that will help the

0:34:30.320 --> 0:34:32.000
<v Speaker 7>market over the intermediate term.

0:34:32.239 --> 0:34:36.880
<v Speaker 1>You mentioned inflation tomorrow an important CPI report, another inflation

0:34:36.960 --> 0:34:39.160
<v Speaker 1>print which we know came in hot last time. How

0:34:39.239 --> 0:34:42.120
<v Speaker 1>much of what comes if it comes in hot again tomorrow,

0:34:42.360 --> 0:34:44.160
<v Speaker 1>how much of what we're hearing from you today could

0:34:44.239 --> 0:34:46.240
<v Speaker 1>change a little bit And just kind about thirty seconds.

0:34:46.880 --> 0:34:49.160
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I think if the inflation numbers really come in higher,

0:34:49.200 --> 0:34:51.239
<v Speaker 7>say two tenths or more, I think that could be

0:34:51.239 --> 0:34:54.280
<v Speaker 7>a short term setback for interest rates and the markets.

0:34:54.760 --> 0:34:56.840
<v Speaker 7>But some of that's already reflected in the market, the

0:34:56.880 --> 0:34:59.960
<v Speaker 7>fact that that inflation's not coming down as quickly as expected,

0:35:00.320 --> 0:35:02.239
<v Speaker 7>and you're seeing that in lower interest rates and a

0:35:02.280 --> 0:35:04.040
<v Speaker 7>lower dollar over the past few weeks.

0:35:04.080 --> 0:35:06.040
<v Speaker 1>I think, all right, conn of leave it there, Hey listen.

0:35:06.120 --> 0:35:09.000
<v Speaker 1>Always appreciate it, Michael, take care, I have a great week.

0:35:09.040 --> 0:35:12.279
<v Speaker 1>Michael Sheldon, executive director of OURDM Financial Group, joining us

0:35:12.400 --> 0:35:13.080
<v Speaker 1>on the phone here.

0:35:13.640 --> 0:35:18.279
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0:35:18.440 --> 0:35:22.160
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