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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris

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Speaker 1: here with Bau mcbrair. The PGA Tour heads from Hawaii

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Speaker 1: to California. After it took a playoff to settle things

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Speaker 1: at the Sony Open. We'll do a quick recap of

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Speaker 1: the Sony offer you a full betting preview of this

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Speaker 1: week's tournament the American Express. We'll tell you who we

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Speaker 1: personally are betting, and then we will give you our

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Speaker 1: one and done picks for the week at the end

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Speaker 1: of the show. Nick Taylor is in unassuming Canadian professional golfer,

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Speaker 1: but get him into a playoff bow and he turns

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Speaker 1: into a ferocious monster with a taste for flesh and blood.

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Speaker 1: Taylor has been on the tour for about a decade

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Speaker 1: and has five career wins, the last three of which

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Speaker 1: have been in playoffs. And twenty twenty three, Taylor rolled

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Speaker 1: in a seventy two foot bomb for eagle to be

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Speaker 1: Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff at the Canadian Open, becoming

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Speaker 1: the first Canadian to win the Canadian Open in sixty

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Speaker 1: nine years. Last year, Taylor beat Charlie Hoffman in a

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Speaker 1: playoff to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open, birdying both

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Speaker 1: playoff holes to do so, and Sunday at the Sony Open,

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Speaker 1: Taylor eagled the par five eighteenth hole to get into

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Speaker 1: a playoff with Nico at Cheveria, and then one on

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Speaker 1: the second playoff hole. He birdied the eighteenth on both

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Speaker 1: of the playoff holes. Taylor's approach to the eighteenth on

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Speaker 1: the second playoff hole came up about fifty yard shorts,

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Speaker 1: but then he hit just a brilliant little pitch to

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Speaker 1: within three feet. At Schaveri had hit his second shot

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Speaker 1: onto the back fringe of the green about thirty nine

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Speaker 1: feet from the hole, but he hit a poor putt

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Speaker 1: that left him seven feet away, then skirted that put

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Speaker 1: by on the right, and Taylor calmly sank his birdie

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Speaker 1: putt for the victory. Taylor and at Shaveria finished minus sixteen.

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Speaker 1: JJ Spahn and Steven Jaeger both finished one shot back.

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Speaker 1: They both could have joined the playoff with birdie's on

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Speaker 1: the par five eighteenth, Spawn couldn't get up and down

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Speaker 1: from the front right rough, missing a ten foot birdie putt.

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Speaker 1: Jaeger curiously put away his big driver on the eighteenth

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Speaker 1: tee and proceeded to knock his tee shot into a

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Speaker 1: fairweight bunker. Anyway, his hole didn't get any better from there.

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Speaker 1: He still had almost one hundred and sixty to the

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Speaker 1: hall for his third shot hit that one off the

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Speaker 1: back of the green. Would have needed to make his

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Speaker 1: little pitch from there to join the playoff, failed to

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Speaker 1: do so. Any takeaways from the sony.

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Speaker 2: Bone Isn't it funny? How during last week? So I

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Speaker 2: did mention Nick Taylor, but it was in passing about

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Speaker 2: Adam Hadwin, and Hadwin got off to a great start

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Speaker 2: and then fell apart. But it was Nick Taylor who

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Speaker 2: also matched up well with Wilight Country Club and got

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Speaker 2: hot at the right time. He was kind of in

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Speaker 2: the middle of the pack most of the week, and

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Speaker 2: then his weekend was incredibly efficient. He was making birdies

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Speaker 2: in tough conditions and that's what it was. Sixteen hunder

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Speaker 2: par for that tournament is a pretty low or high

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Speaker 2: bad score for historical purposes. The wind was up most

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Speaker 2: of the week. Nick Taylor was pretty sharp despite pretty

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Speaker 2: tough conditions for Wilight Country Club, and that chip in

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Speaker 2: for eagle on the seventy second hole. Outstanding short game

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Speaker 2: and that that's what we know of Nick Taylor. He

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Speaker 2: reminds me a lot of Mike we are ironically, where

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Speaker 2: it's just that that bulldog mentality where the as the

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Speaker 2: tough gets going this this guy is gonna be there

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Speaker 2: staring in the face of it and Nick Taylor get

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Speaker 2: He got me fired up. Chipping in on eighteen that

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Speaker 2: was that was as good as it gets because he

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Speaker 2: needed it. If he didn't make that eagle chip, he

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Speaker 2: was going to be out of the playoff and Nico

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Speaker 2: Etcheveria would have won.

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Speaker 1: Not only that chip, but the chip on that that

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Speaker 1: he won the tournament on. Knowing that Nico is going

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Speaker 1: to probably make Bertie there didn't didn't wind up making Bertie,

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Speaker 1: but you you know, you you have to assume.

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Speaker 2: That or match play type of scenario.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and fifty yards away with a lot of green

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Speaker 1: to cover off a bare lie, getting it inside three

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Speaker 1: feet is a top five percentile outcome and he was

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Speaker 1: just you know, nails in that way.

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Speaker 2: That's a nervy type of shot too. That's a shot

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Speaker 2: that gives everybody fits at any level. A tight lie

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Speaker 2: half weed shot where you're taking something off, you're trying

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Speaker 2: to measure the spin. It's so tricky of a shot

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Speaker 2: and he made it look like it was nothing. It

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Speaker 2: was a masterclass in finishing from Nick Taylor.

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Speaker 1: Yep. Really hard to control the spin on that shot.

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Speaker 1: A lot of guys come up way short and he

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Speaker 1: just rolled that one out.

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Speaker 2: Or they skull it over the green and kill somebody.

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Speaker 1: That is typically my shot on that kind of chip

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Speaker 1: off a bare lie. Now we head to the American Express,

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Speaker 1: which will be played in southern California, about one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty miles northeast of San Diego. This event is

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Speaker 1: played on three courses. Players rotate between the Pete die

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Speaker 1: State Course, Lacina Country Club, and the Nicholas Tournament Course

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Speaker 1: for their first three rounds, then play the final round

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Speaker 1: at the Stadium course. Again, there's a fifty four hole cut.

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Speaker 1: I could be wrong, but I think this is the

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Speaker 1: only tour event with a fifty four hole cut. There

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Speaker 1: are one hundred and fifty six players in the field

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Speaker 1: this week. And oh, by the way, it's a pro am,

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Speaker 1: So if you want to watch corporate CEOs hit duck

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Speaker 1: hooks into the desert, this event is for you. We

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Speaker 1: won't spend as much time on the course breakdown this

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Speaker 1: week because the courses are all pretty similar in how

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Speaker 1: they play, and the bottom line for all of them easypasy.

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Speaker 1: The Stadium Course is a par seventy two that plays two, seven,

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Speaker 1: two and ten yards. There's a lot of water on

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Speaker 1: this course. It even has an island par three seventeenth hole,

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Speaker 1: much like Pete die'es Sawgrass Course in Florida, but this

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Speaker 1: is still one of the ten easiest courses on tour

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Speaker 1: despite all the water. The par fours are pretty short

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Speaker 1: by tour standards, as are the two par fives on

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Speaker 1: the front nine, which played you five hundred and thirty

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Speaker 1: five yards and five hundred and fifty nine yards. Lakina

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Speaker 1: Country Club, a par seventy two course playing to seven

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Speaker 1: thousand and sixty yards, might be the shortest course on tour.

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Speaker 1: The par three's can be a challenge at Lakina, the

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Speaker 1: par fours and par five's not so much. The par

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Speaker 1: fives here especially have a birdy or better rate north

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Speaker 1: of forty percent, so you better make hay on those.

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Speaker 1: And The Nicholas Tournament Course is a seven and forty

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Speaker 1: seven yard par seventy two. Again, there's some challenging par

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Speaker 1: threes on the Nicholas course, but the par fours and

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Speaker 1: par fives are extremely easy by tour standards. The greens

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Speaker 1: on all of these courses are bermuda, and the American

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Speaker 1: Express does often boil down to a putting contest. As

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Speaker 1: John Rahm once observed, he used much more colorful language

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Speaker 1: than I just did. I don't think Ram loved his

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Speaker 1: tournament when he was on the tour, even though he

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Speaker 1: won it. The greens, by the way, on the Stadium

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Speaker 1: course in Lakita small very small, so wedge play is

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Speaker 1: critical in this tourney because of how short most of

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Speaker 1: the par fours and par fives are. Par five scoring critical,

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Speaker 1: driving not so much, just to avoid the big miss.

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Speaker 1: Accuracy probably more important than length. Nick Dunlap is the

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Speaker 1: defending champ. He finished twenty nine under par last year.

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Speaker 1: John Rahm won here in twenty twenty three, finishing minus

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Speaker 1: twenty seven. Hudson Swafford finished minus twenty three to win

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Speaker 1: here in twenty twenty two. See who Kim won in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. He was also minus twenty three, and

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Speaker 1: Andrew Landry finished minus twenty six to win in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty The weather for this week predictable for the southern

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Speaker 1: California does sunny, temperatures in the low seventies or high sixties,

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Speaker 1: very light wins bow your thoughts on these courses and

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Speaker 1: what we should be emphasizing and looking for players to

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Speaker 1: bat well.

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Speaker 2: I mean, ironically, it's the one week of year where

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Speaker 2: you actually want to go to Lakinta, so it's a

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Speaker 2: really beautiful layout. Winter in the Socow Desert is beautiful.

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Speaker 2: Any other time of year is just god awful. It's

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Speaker 2: one of the worst places on Earth, but golf there

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Speaker 2: is king like. There are over one hundred golf courses

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Speaker 2: in that little tiny Palm Springs Coachella Valley area, and

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Speaker 2: a lot of them are very similar to this, where

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Speaker 2: it's kind of a resort style. Short by tour standards

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Speaker 2: par seventy two makes it super accessible on the scorecard,

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Speaker 2: making birdies as a must, and John Ram is right,

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Speaker 2: it really is a putting contest, assuming that your second

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Speaker 2: shots are good. That's where a lot of the birdy

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Speaker 2: opportunities come from. And the putting contest reference came from

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Speaker 2: just how flat these greens are. They might be on

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Speaker 2: the small side, but they're very predictable. They roll extremely true.

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Speaker 2: A lot of people have said that the greens at

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Speaker 2: this tournament are as true as they are anywhere in

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Speaker 2: the world. So if you're not just crushing pushing puts everywhere,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna make them. If you're lying end up correctly.

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Speaker 2: Just reading the greens is super easy. Here. You have

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Speaker 2: to make a ton of birdies. That's really what it

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Speaker 2: comes down to is if you make a ton of

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Speaker 2: birdies here, you might have a chance.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there are times when you'll be watching this tournament

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Speaker 1: and you'll go five or six minutes without seeing anyone

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Speaker 1: miss a pot. Yeah, it's one of those types of events.

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Speaker 2: So it's like putting into a bucket.

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Speaker 1: Now we will get to the odds in just a moment, but.

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Speaker 2: First download the free Betting Pros app for iOS and Android.

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Speaker 2: performance by sport and bet type, including game picks, props,

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Speaker 2: and parlays. Create custom betting systems to find winning trends

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Speaker 2: Premium by downloading the app and activating your trial on

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Speaker 2: the upgrade screen.

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Speaker 1: Now onto the odds for the American Express. All odds

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Speaker 1: courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday morning. Let's start by

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Speaker 1: looking at some of the favorites. Still know Scottie Scheffler.

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Speaker 1: He would have played in this event, but he continues

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Speaker 1: to recover from a hand wound sustained in a kitchen

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Speaker 1: cooking mishap on Christmas. Xander Schoffley is therefore the favorite

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Speaker 1: at plus seven hundred. Justin Thomas is plus twelve hundred.

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Speaker 1: Sung Jim checks in at plus fourteen hundred, Sam Burns

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Speaker 1: and Patrick Cantley plus two thousand, Tony Finow is plus

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Speaker 1: twenty two hundred, Wyndham Clark and Tom Kim are plus

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Speaker 1: three thousand, Seawoo Kim is plus thirty five hundred, and

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Speaker 1: at plus four thousand are Max Grazerman, JJ Spahn and

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Speaker 1: Harry Hall. Do you like any of the favorites?

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Speaker 2: Bo absolutely. Where A lot of times people say, oh,

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Speaker 2: look at what Nick Dunlapp did last year, winning as

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Speaker 2: an amateur for the first time since Phil Nicholson one

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Speaker 2: as an amateur. That was kind of about a left field,

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Speaker 2: But historically speaking, the favorites do well here. And they

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Speaker 2: do well here every year, So I'm going to go

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Speaker 2: right to the top. At Xander Shaffley plus seven hundred,

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Speaker 2: I think he's going to win this thing going away.

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Speaker 2: I think he's going to just obliterate all three of

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Speaker 2: these golf courses. I think the whole field is going

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Speaker 2: to do that. But Xander Shaffley at plus seven hundred,

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Speaker 2: he's right where I'm starting off with. Chalk it up.

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Speaker 2: I like when it's pretty glaring on my modeling is

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Speaker 2: Xander Shaffley doesn't have any week spots, so why wouldn't

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Speaker 2: I play him on a golf course where it's not

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Speaker 2: going to expose any week spots anyway, But it's also

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Speaker 2: going to show how strong he is through the bag,

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Speaker 2: especially on a second shot basis he's among the best

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Speaker 2: in the world. I think Xander Schaffley is a great

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Speaker 2: pick here, and I think I'll go with Sam Burns.

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Speaker 2: I kind of tossed between Sung JM at fourteen. I

217
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Speaker 2: felt that was a little short, and then I kind

218
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Speaker 2: of wanted to get a little bit of action on

219
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Speaker 2: Harry Hall because of how many birdies he makes. But

220
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Speaker 2: at the end of the day, I came back to

221
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Speaker 2: Sam Burns because he just makes a ton of birdies.

222
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Speaker 2: He's an aggressive player, even though as a veteran of

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Speaker 2: the tour now Sam Burns in my modeling showed up

224
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Speaker 2: right at the top. So at twenty to one, I

225
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Speaker 2: think that's where I'm going to go with my betting

226
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Speaker 2: card outright and top.

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Speaker 1: Five and Burns is a pretty good track record here.

228
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Speaker 1: He's finished top eleven in three of his last four

229
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Speaker 1: AMEX appearances, finished sixth in two of those years. And

230
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Speaker 1: going back to Shoffley, bow I really thought he was

231
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Speaker 1: going to open up at like five to one. To

232
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Speaker 1: get him at seven to one does seem like a

233
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Speaker 1: decent value. He's finished third here in each of the

234
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Speaker 1: last two years, terrific on short approach shots, but heck,

235
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Speaker 1: he's terrific in pretty much every category as you mentioned,

236
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Speaker 1: So yeah, it's hard not to like him at that price.

237
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Speaker 1: Justin Thomas, he tied for third here last year with Shoffley,

238
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Speaker 1: his first appearance at the AMEX since twenty fifteen, when

239
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Speaker 1: he also finished top ten. He was seventh back then.

240
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Speaker 1: He's an excellent wedge player, so you can make a

241
00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:03,960
Speaker 1: k there, Sung Jim, as you mentioned, maybe not quite

242
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,040
Speaker 1: the price we're looking for at fourteen to one. But

243
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Speaker 1: he's finished top twenty five here each of the last

244
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Speaker 1: six years, but then again, his best stretch best finish

245
00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,439
Speaker 1: over that stretch was only tenth. Patrick Cantley has shown

246
00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:22,160
Speaker 1: some aptitude here his last five AMX appearances ninth, second, ninth,

247
00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:28,319
Speaker 1: twenty sixth, then fifty second last year. Tom Kim, I

248
00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:30,839
Speaker 1: don't know. It seems like Tom Kim's game could fit here,

249
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Speaker 1: but he's had two missed cuts and a sixth here

250
00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:37,920
Speaker 1: in three previous appearances. And bo I'm a little interested

251
00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:41,440
Speaker 1: in Seewau Kim here just because he won here in

252
00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,200
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one and has been really good on Pete

253
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Speaker 1: Die courses. He's actually recorded three straight top twenty fives

254
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Speaker 1: here since his win in twenty twenty one.

255
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Speaker 2: Yeah, his game's a little bipolar. He's either going to

256
00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:58,160
Speaker 2: go really really well and run pure and win here

257
00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:00,920
Speaker 2: like he did in twenty one, because he just makes

258
00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:02,640
Speaker 2: a ton of birdies when he's on. When he's off,

259
00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:04,880
Speaker 2: he misses a cut and a cloud of dust. So

260
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Speaker 2: it's just like if you're going to ride Seawoo Kim,

261
00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:09,600
Speaker 2: just understand that he's either going to payoff for you

262
00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,680
Speaker 2: or you're gonna know by Friday afternoon that it wasn't

263
00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:13,760
Speaker 2: a good choice.

264
00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:18,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's outright or bust for Seawu, and you know

265
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Speaker 1: my betting card reflects that appropriately. We'll get to that later.

266
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Speaker 1: Let's now turn our attention to mid range options. At

267
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Speaker 1: plus forty five hundred are Cameron Young, Kurt Kitty Yama,

268
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,480
Speaker 1: and Davis Thompson. At plus five thousand are Brian Harmon,

269
00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:38,520
Speaker 1: Patrick Fishburn, Nick Dunlap and Eric cole Nico at Teveria

270
00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:42,480
Speaker 1: and Will zlatorus or plus fifty five hundred, Ben Griffin, JT.

271
00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:46,480
Speaker 1: Post In, Denny McCarthy, and Tom Hogy our plus six thousand,

272
00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:50,120
Speaker 1: Sepstraka is plus sixty five hundred, and at plus seven

273
00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:54,320
Speaker 1: thousand are Adam Hadwin, Jason Day, and Daniel Berger. How

274
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,160
Speaker 1: about the mid range plays bo, So.

275
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Speaker 2: Only two of these guys actually popped up in my model?

276
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Speaker 2: Is somebody interested in I don't know if I'm interested

277
00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,960
Speaker 2: in betting on them per se, because there are some

278
00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:08,680
Speaker 2: weaknesses there. But jj spawn popped up pretty high in

279
00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:12,600
Speaker 2: my modeling, despite not being overly good at making birdies.

280
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Speaker 2: He's fifty fifth in this field and birdie making but

281
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Speaker 2: everywhere else is pretty solid. He's at forty to one.

282
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Speaker 2: I like that number for him, especially with how he

283
00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:23,240
Speaker 2: played last week. Just came up a little bit short.

284
00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,240
Speaker 2: Eric Cole is another one where it's like this eric

285
00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,280
Speaker 2: Cole guy. Second shot pretty good, he's a great plutter

286
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:34,040
Speaker 2: off the tea. He's been atrocious. The problem with eric

287
00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:37,560
Speaker 2: Cole is off the tee he's been atrocious, and here

288
00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:40,480
Speaker 2: really doesn't come into play. These fairways are very easy

289
00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:43,440
Speaker 2: to hit. There's almost no penalty for a wayverd t shot.

290
00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:45,760
Speaker 2: So eric Cole might be in play here at fifty

291
00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:49,280
Speaker 2: to one. I'm just not sold on his ability to

292
00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,520
Speaker 2: cash in when it matters most because I really haven't

293
00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,240
Speaker 2: seen it in a while. He looked a little bit

294
00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:59,200
Speaker 2: more encouraging last week, but this is another We're changing

295
00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 2: the style of golf course again on this field, So

296
00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:07,680
Speaker 2: going from Wilight to all these three courses here in socals,

297
00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:11,160
Speaker 2: it's quite a different animal. And I just don't know

298
00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,400
Speaker 2: if air Cole has the chops in this stronger field

299
00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:15,440
Speaker 2: to pull it off.

300
00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you do worry about the way we're drivers

301
00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,680
Speaker 1: a little here because the big misses can get you

302
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,040
Speaker 1: in trouble. With all the water on the stadium course

303
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:30,840
Speaker 1: and then yeah, you really blow it offees and exactly

304
00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:34,360
Speaker 1: there is a desert and purple cacti and all that

305
00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,080
Speaker 1: sort of thing. But like Cole was twenty first here

306
00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:40,800
Speaker 1: last year, as you said, pretty good on short approaches,

307
00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:44,000
Speaker 1: good potter, and he was top five at the Sony

308
00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,520
Speaker 1: last week. And when we're looking for winners, traditionally at

309
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,840
Speaker 1: the Amex, oftentimes it's guys who left some sort of

310
00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:54,840
Speaker 1: footprint in Hawaii in the two previous weeks. Cole kind

311
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:58,840
Speaker 1: of fits a lot of those buckets. I like Tom

312
00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,680
Speaker 1: Hogy this week, Like he led the tour last year

313
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:04,440
Speaker 1: in proximity on approaches from one hundred and twenty five

314
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,640
Speaker 1: to one hundred and fifty yards and was second from

315
00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:09,639
Speaker 1: one hundred to one hundred and twenty five yards, So

316
00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:11,320
Speaker 1: that is a range where you're going to see a

317
00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:15,679
Speaker 1: lot of shots this week, and HOGI excel there. And

318
00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:20,200
Speaker 1: talk about this being a putting contest. Bo Adam hadwin.

319
00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:22,880
Speaker 1: One of the best putters in the world. He's finished

320
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:26,080
Speaker 1: top six in this tournament in five of his last

321
00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 1: eight appearances here, and in the other three appearances over

322
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:33,240
Speaker 1: that stretch he was thirty second, twenty fifth, and eighteenth.

323
00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:38,359
Speaker 1: This guy is consistently good in this event. Yeah, I

324
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,879
Speaker 1: mean the last calendar year not great for Adam Hadwin.

325
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 1: But he's a guy with that flatstick who could certainly

326
00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:46,520
Speaker 1: rise up here.

327
00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:48,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he looked really good last week except for

328
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,360
Speaker 2: when he got up into the wind like he does.

329
00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,719
Speaker 2: He's not a very good wind player, we found out

330
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:57,280
Speaker 2: pretty early on after a really nice opening start in

331
00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:01,320
Speaker 2: at Wili. The problem with Adam had Win is I

332
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 2: was a week early on him picking him last week.

333
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,760
Speaker 2: I think he actually does have a good chance this week.

334
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 2: With his history here, I think going after Hogi might

335
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,400
Speaker 2: be a week early or two weeks early, since he's

336
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,000
Speaker 2: the guy that I have kind of earmarked for Pebble Beach,

337
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,240
Speaker 2: which is the shortest golf course on tour at sixty

338
00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:23,280
Speaker 2: eight hundred and change. So just to answer your question

339
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,440
Speaker 2: that we were close at seven seventy seventy, I it's

340
00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,120
Speaker 2: the top five shortest courses on tour with Pebble Beach

341
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:30,240
Speaker 2: is the shortest.

342
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:35,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, Hogy is and Hogi is won there before, I believe,

343
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:39,359
Speaker 1: So yeah, he is a very good play there. Still,

344
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,840
Speaker 1: though might be worthwhile to save him for then, But

345
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,719
Speaker 1: I'm intrigued this week. What about long shots bo anyone

346
00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:48,840
Speaker 1: with odds of seventy five to one or longer?

347
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,600
Speaker 2: We should be looking at funny should ask? I have

348
00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:56,040
Speaker 2: three of them at seventy to one. Daniel Berger rates

349
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,680
Speaker 2: out number one in my model. This is a short

350
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 2: course specialist who makes a lot of bernies, great putter,

351
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,960
Speaker 2: great short approach. He's a guy who gets kind of

352
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,920
Speaker 2: swallowed up by bigger golf courses, so this is where

353
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,639
Speaker 2: he has to make his hay to keep his his

354
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:14,320
Speaker 2: tour momentum going. So I think Daniel Berger seventy to

355
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 2: one is a really good value, especially with his pedigree.

356
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,679
Speaker 2: I mean going back a couple of years of course,

357
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,680
Speaker 2: but I think he's starting to round back into shape

358
00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,000
Speaker 2: and this is a really good opportunity for him to

359
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 2: show the growth he's made in his game. Seventy to

360
00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,280
Speaker 2: one for me is great. And then despite his nickname

361
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,199
Speaker 2: as being the willow branch because he finds water no

362
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 2: matter where he's at, Eric van Royan at one hundred

363
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,760
Speaker 2: and ten to one is an absolute steals. That's one

364
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 2: of the better golf course golfers I've seen at more

365
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:47,800
Speaker 2: than hundred and one odds in a long time. Eric

366
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,400
Speaker 2: Van Royan could do a lot of damage here, especially

367
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,879
Speaker 2: with how hot he gets. And then I have a

368
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 2: really really deep shot that popped up in the top

369
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 2: five of my model. Look out for the name Chris

370
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 2: with a K Ventura Ace Ventura's long lost cousin. I

371
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:08,120
Speaker 2: guess Chris Ventura at plus at four hundred to one

372
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,920
Speaker 2: is one of the best birdie makers on tour by

373
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,879
Speaker 2: statistic and he's just a little known name, and so

374
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,440
Speaker 2: he's in his rookie year on tour, but he's put

375
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 2: put together enough rounds to pop up at number one

376
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 2: in this field and birdies are better gained and top

377
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,160
Speaker 2: ten on par three's of this distance, and he's also

378
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 2: top five on strokes gained par four, which is going

379
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 2: to be a key metric this week. So get me

380
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 2: Chris Ventura on a little bit of a just a little,

381
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:43,439
Speaker 2: a little floater, one of those a keied elamine floater

382
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:47,440
Speaker 2: shots in the paint. Just throw a couple bucks on

383
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:49,360
Speaker 2: him and see what happens.

384
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 1: Nice, I'll throw in a few more long shots. Doug

385
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 1: gam ninety to one. He was among the leaders in

386
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 1: accuracy last year on approaches from one hundred to one

387
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty yard, and he's historically played Pete Die

388
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 1: course as well, so the stadium course should suit him.

389
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 1: Andrew Putnam is one hundred and ten to one. Putnam

390
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 1: is a short hitter off the tee. This guy can

391
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 1: barely drive it out of his own shadow, but it

392
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 1: doesn't really matter here. Accuracy off the tee does matter here,

393
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 1: and he's pretty straight, He's pretty good on shorter approaches,

394
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 1: and he's a solid putter. Putnam has finished top forty

395
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 1: here in six of his last seven appearances. And Joe

396
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,959
Speaker 1: high Smith is one hundred and twenty to one. The

397
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 1: young guy was thirty first here a year ago. He's

398
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 1: good on shorter approaches, not a bad putter. I do

399
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 1: worry about his driving accuracy, but at one hundred and

400
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 1: twenty to one, I could live with that. Achilles heel.

401
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's get to our early betting cards.

402
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 1: Who is on yours as of now?

403
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 2: All right? So I have outrights on Xander Schoffley and

404
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 2: Sam Burns. I have a top five kicker on Sam Burns.

405
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 2: Daniel Berger seventy to one. I'm doing a top ten

406
00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 2: kicker with him. As well as Van Royan and Chris Vantura.

407
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 2: I'm going to throw a small outright on them, but

408
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,119
Speaker 2: I'm hitting the top twenty markets heavily on both of

409
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 2: those because the odds are very favorable.

410
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 1: Now, Bo is as strong a case as you make

411
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 1: for Xander Schoffley. I have sworn on this event. I

412
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 1: am not eating Choco no matter what. And you are

413
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 1: one of the better cooks that I know, and even

414
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,439
Speaker 1: you could not prepare the chalk in a way that

415
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,919
Speaker 1: would make it appetizing to me. So the lowest odds

416
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 1: play I am coming up with is Seawoo kim At

417
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 1: plus yeah plus thirty five hundred outright. That's it, outright only.

418
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 1: As we talked about, no top fives or top tens

419
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 1: for Sea Wu, Who's win or bust? Tom Hogy sixty

420
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 1: to one outright, five to one for a top ten,

421
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 1: Doug gimm plus fourteen hundred for a top five, Adam Hadwin,

422
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 1: I am betting plus five point fifty for a top ten.

423
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 1: I just don't think he can win here, but I

424
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 1: do think he's going to be in play for that

425
00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: top ten. Andrew Putnam plus three twenty for a top twenty,

426
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,159
Speaker 1: and Joe high Smith. I am making a very small

427
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 1: bat outright at one hundred and twenty to one and

428
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 1: twenty to one for a top five. Now for the

429
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:13,199
Speaker 1: one and done competition, I took Ben on last week.

430
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 1: He missed the COT. I got off to a pretty

431
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,120
Speaker 1: bad start the last two weeks. In Hawaii. Bo took

432
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,360
Speaker 1: Maverick McNeely. He played pretty well for three days, then

433
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: shot the highest score in the field on Sunday, a seventy.

434
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 2: Three McNeely a lot of money.

435
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 1: He finished tied for forty fifth, sliding down the leaderboard

436
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 1: on Sunday, good for twenty four, three hundred and eighty

437
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 1: three dollars. Bo, you are up first this week. Who

438
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 1: you got?

439
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 2: So? Since I'm leading off, I'm gonna get a little

440
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 2: more aggressive. If I was following it, following you, I'd

441
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 2: be a little bit more prudent with going down the board.

442
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna go with a guy who I just

443
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 2: don't see myself playing for the rest of the season,

444
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 2: as I want un done. But I have a feeling

445
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 2: he's going to do really well here. And I don't

446
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 2: believe we mentioned his name much more than just a

447
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 2: name in the odds board. Max Grazerman at forty to

448
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 2: one is gonna be my one and done this week.

449
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's a solid play a guy just I didn't

450
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 1: like him quite enough at that number to bet him,

451
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 1: But he does check a lot of boxes here, So

452
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: Grazerman is a good play. I'm gonna go all in

453
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: with Sea Wu Bo. Hope he doesn't have one of

454
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:28,400
Speaker 1: those errant weeks where he just you know, doesn't make

455
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 1: the cuts, doesn't finish on Sunday. But yeah, he's definitely

456
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 1: a guy who could contend. So Seewu Kim for me,

457
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: Max Grazerman for Bow, and that's going to do it

458
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 1: for this week's Betting Pros. PGA podcast will be back

459
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 1: next week with a preview of a course that plays

460
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 1: a little bit longer than these courses, the Farmer's Insurance

461
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 1: Open at Beautiful Tory Pines. Until then, so long everyone.

462
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

463
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,199
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464
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00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,520
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00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,240
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00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:22,320
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