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Speaker 1: NFL The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go from throwing your job, we're

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Speaker 3: sitting it to cash.

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Speaker 2: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go swim.

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Speaker 3: That's in a.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right. It's just the ultimate comb.

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Speaker 2: And we are under way. What's up, everybody? Welcome to

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Speaker 2: The Action Network Podcast presented by Bett MGM. Today we

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Speaker 2: have our NFL Player Projections episode for Week five. I'm

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Speaker 2: your host Chris Raybonn and here to break it down

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Speaker 2: with me one of the top fantasy rankers in the game,

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Speaker 2: the odds maker Sean Kerner, Sean, what's going up?

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Speaker 3: Up? Had another great week? Up like twenty units on

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Speaker 3: the air. Now, I saw you had another amazing week too,

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Speaker 3: So how.

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Speaker 2: You doing feeling good man? My only loss was I

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Speaker 2: bought out of my Chargers, which which was smart.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I had the Raiders at like six and then I

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Speaker 2: was like, nah, so I just I just bought out. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Like it was actually a shit show on Like as

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Speaker 2: we were preparing for the the six pack, I was like,

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Speaker 2: wait a minute, I can't do with the Raiders anymore.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, well yeah, besides that, to.

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Speaker 3: Be fair, I mean that that ended up being like

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Speaker 3: a brutal, bad beat. It's actually amazing the Raiders almost

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Speaker 3: covered that given how Aidan O'Connell played. You know, they

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Speaker 3: got sack like nine times, had three brutal turnovers. Other

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Speaker 3: than that, he looked great though.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it was it was. I mean, it was

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Speaker 2: a it was a wild ride. If I had money

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Speaker 2: on that game, I would have been all over the

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Speaker 2: place because it's like the Chargers charging and then the

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Speaker 2: Raiders just trying. Yeah, yeah, that.

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Speaker 3: Was a nightmare. But I'm sure he'll bet the next

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Speaker 3: time he gets to start, he'll be a lot better,

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Speaker 3: I promise.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see, I guess in the protocol, so we'll

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Speaker 2: see if he's out of it. This week they played

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Speaker 2: the Monday night game. I believe it right, No, so yeah, yep,

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Speaker 2: that's at yep. So on this show, of course, we

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Speaker 2: will run through our top five at each position. We'll

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Speaker 2: discuss the players were high and long, and we will

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Speaker 2: throw out some player props. So, Sean, let's start with quarterback.

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Speaker 2: Who are your top five kbs for Week five?

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Speaker 3: So I got Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Anthony

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Speaker 3: Richardson at QB four, and then Tua.

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Speaker 2: Yep, I got Mahomes Hurts, Alan Tua and then Richardson

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Speaker 2: at QBI SA same top five. Are you high?

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Speaker 3: I'm high on Anthony Richardson. You know, he has flashed

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Speaker 3: his top five upside already this year. He's QB four

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Speaker 3: in points per game despite only playing half of Week two,

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Speaker 3: and a lot of that is his rushing upside. You know,

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Speaker 3: he has a rushing touchdown in all three of his

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Speaker 3: starts now. And this matchup's interesting because you know it's

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Speaker 3: more of a pass funnel matchup against the Titans, which

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Speaker 3: you know, Anthony Richardson not gonna throw for a ton yards,

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Speaker 3: but they really haven't faced a quarterback with as much

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Speaker 3: rushing upside as Richardson, and you know they do have

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Speaker 3: a good run deep. I guess Deshaun Watson is the

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Speaker 3: closest player to Anthony Richardson. He posted a top ten

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Speaker 3: week in Week three. So I just love Richardson's upside

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Speaker 3: every week, but especially this week at home against the Titan.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, he's my QB four to open the week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's He's definitely a top five quarterback I think

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Speaker 2: this week. I mean, and I was watching that game

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Speaker 2: pretty close because of course I had the RAMS, so

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Speaker 2: I was pretty disgusted that they let him come all

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Speaker 2: the way back. But I thought that the Colts could

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Speaker 2: have helped out Richardson a little more. There's a couple

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Speaker 2: of drops on some passes, so I think the passing

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Speaker 2: will improve as the year goes on. Yeah, downs gets

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Speaker 2: you know, more comfortable, and some of those tight ends

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Speaker 2: they start to flash. Last week. Yeah, I'm high on

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Speaker 2: Sam Howe, another young quarterback. He's my QB eleven to

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Speaker 2: open the week. He's QB fifteen and ECR and just

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Speaker 2: going against his Bears defense. Man, I mean, what else

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Speaker 2: is there to say and making every quarterback look like

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Speaker 2: a future Hall of Famer. Russell Wilson had a very

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Speaker 2: good game, queen game against the Bears defense last week.

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Speaker 2: So you know, Howell played well, hung in there against

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Speaker 2: Philly after the brutal outing against Buffalo. So I do

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Speaker 2: think he's gonna take some chances throw the ball down

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Speaker 2: the field, and I think there should be a lot

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Speaker 2: of openings against his Bears defense that's, you know, probably

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Speaker 2: the worst in the league. They've given up the fourth

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Speaker 2: most points to quarterbacks, but ten touchdown passes that the

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Speaker 2: second most, only two interceptions for the Bears defense. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: Sam Howe, for me this week, I have him as

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Speaker 2: the top twelve QB.

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Speaker 3: Nice. I didn't realize that he's my QB nine, so

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Speaker 3: I guess yeah, I'm superd him too. It's kind of

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Speaker 3: a weird week at quarterback. You know, we finally have

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Speaker 3: bye weeks and so like Herbert Gino Smith Deshaun Watson

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Speaker 3: are out. So yeah, the low one QB one range

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Speaker 3: is kind of wide open. Sam Howel's right there for me.

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Speaker 3: Queelan on low On Goff speaking of low im QB ones,

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Speaker 3: he's actually outside of my top twelve, so he's my

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Speaker 3: QB thirteen QB eight ECR to open the week. This

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Speaker 3: isn't a knock on Jarrett Goff at all, but the

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Speaker 3: Lions has just been a very run heavy team so far.

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Speaker 3: They have the second lowest passway over expected on the

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Speaker 3: season and this week they're nine point favorites over the Panthers,

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Speaker 3: so they probably just won't need golf to throw, you know,

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Speaker 3: for over two hundred and fifty yards to win this game.

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Speaker 3: Plus the Lion's defense has been really good. You know,

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Speaker 3: they're making fifth and dv away. So the makeup of

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Speaker 3: this team is a little bit different than maybe last year.

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Speaker 3: Although you know, he does tend to concede rushing touchdowns

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Speaker 3: in the red zone to David Montgomery, similar to Jamal

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Speaker 3: Williams last year. So for a quarterback that doesn't offer

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Speaker 3: much in terms of rushing up side, a matchup like

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Speaker 3: this where they're going to be able to win by

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Speaker 3: leaning on the run potentially just has him a bit

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Speaker 3: lower than other quarterbacks. So he's all the way down

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Speaker 3: to you know, QB thirteen for me to open the week.

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Speaker 2: He's actually my QB seventeen, so I'm even even lower.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it's yeah, it's tough when you know, you know,

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Speaker 2: this Panther team has kind of been a run funnel too.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're a lot better against the pass than

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Speaker 2: they are against the run. They had that pick six

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Speaker 2: off Kirk Cousins and got him almost not I thought

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Speaker 2: he was gonna leave the game. He got like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: fucked the hell out of the pitcher on the run back.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, not a great week for GoF For me,

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Speaker 2: it is Trevor Lawrence. I have him QB twelve is

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Speaker 2: QB ten to open the week, so not too low.

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Speaker 2: But I do think this is a tougher matchup for

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Speaker 2: him against the Buffalo Bills, and he just really hasn't

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Speaker 2: shown a ton or you know, maybe it's the receivers too,

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Speaker 2: you know, I know they're not helping him out a

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Speaker 2: ton of drops, but he's just not putting up big

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Speaker 2: numbers in any start. And now you're going to face

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Speaker 2: one of the best defenses of the week that you

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Speaker 2: know held the Dolphins down a week after they score

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Speaker 2: seventy you know they put up you know, was twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty one against the Bills. The Bills are the top

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Speaker 2: team against quarterbacks allut of the fewest points per game

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Speaker 2: to the position, just three touchdowns passing the quarterbacks all

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Speaker 2: year and seven hundred and seventy seven passing yards. Souh.

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Speaker 2: Not a great matchup. We'll see if Jay Jones is healthy.

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Speaker 2: But it just just been a tough go for Lawrence

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Speaker 2: as far as putting up those big numbers. And I

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Speaker 2: don't think anything changes against the Bills in London this week.

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Speaker 2: So if you have like an early, remember to get

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Speaker 2: if you have Lawrence, remember to get up early because

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Speaker 2: there might be a quarterback on the wire or something.

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Speaker 2: You might not want to start him this week. Okay,

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Speaker 2: you went to an on one props again last week?

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Speaker 2: I went one to one. You're it's your prop for quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: Okay. So one of the one of the interesting things

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Speaker 3: I found when projecting qbs this week was Dak Prescott

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Speaker 3: and Rock Perty's passing yard projection because you know, it's

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Speaker 3: a tough matchup for each quarterback they're both facing, you know,

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Speaker 3: proposing defenses but it might be a more pass heavy

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Speaker 3: game script for them because it should be a close game,

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Speaker 3: so curious to hear, I haven't projected the same. So

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Speaker 3: who do you think will have more passing yards this week?

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Speaker 3: Dak Prescott or Rock Party.

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Speaker 2: Ooh that's a good let's see. I gotta go Dak.

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Speaker 2: I have Dak in the two fifties. I still have

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Speaker 2: pretty in the two high two thirties. Yeah, and part

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Speaker 2: of that is I think Dallas is a little more

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Speaker 2: likely to trail in this game. So yeah, yeah, we'll

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Speaker 2: go Dak here. It's you know, I think that defense

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Speaker 2: San Francisco's defenses. Both of these defenses are really good,

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Speaker 2: but overall San Francisco has been you know, shown that

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Speaker 2: they can rely to run a bit more. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'll go back.

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Speaker 3: Where do you have them ranked? I have them both

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Speaker 3: outside my top eighteen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Dak's sixteen, perty twenty one. So yeah, it's I mean,

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Speaker 2: it should be a good game, but yeah, offensively not

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Speaker 2: the greatest exactly. As a reminder, the Action Network podcast

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Speaker 2: Gambling problem called one eight hundred Gambler for your top

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Speaker 2: five running backs this week, Runk.

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Speaker 3: So it's Christ McCaffrey, b John Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Derrick

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Speaker 3: Henry and Tony Pollard.

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Speaker 2: I got McCaffrey, David Montgomery, Jacobs, and Henry.

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Speaker 3: So that's why you're Jared Goff projection. So I guess so, yeah,

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Speaker 3: Montgomery's getting all the touchdown touchdown.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean this has been a thing now, like

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Speaker 2: you said, for two years. It's Williams. Was doing the

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Speaker 2: same thing to GoF last year as well. But who

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Speaker 2: are you high on?

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Speaker 3: I'm high on Khalil Herbert against the Commanders. He's my

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Speaker 3: RB nineteen ECR has him RB twenty four. And right

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Speaker 3: when it looked like, you know, Roshawan Johnson could potentially

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Speaker 3: leap frog Herbert, Herbert went off for one hundred and

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Speaker 3: three yard Russian game, he caught a touchdown, So he

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Speaker 3: was my favorite bet on talent in that like RB

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Speaker 3: thirty to thirty five range this year, I do like

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Speaker 3: appreciate Roshawn Johnson as a talent. He's a talented rookie

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Speaker 3: running back. But Herbert is talented himself. You know, he

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Speaker 3: led the league and yards per carry over expected per

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Speaker 3: tent last year. This year he hearings thirteenth. He's a

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Speaker 3: very very good running back and typically he's gonna he's

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Speaker 3: gonna play the first two series for the Bears every game.

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Speaker 3: Then Roshan gets a series and they kind of got

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Speaker 3: the high end from there and just Herbert ran away

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Speaker 3: with it. So I like him to continue this, you know,

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Speaker 3: in this week. He probably won't dominate the work the

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Speaker 3: way he did in Week four most weeks, but I

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Speaker 3: wasn't encourage to see his receiving usage was up a

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Speaker 3: bit and Justin Fields has been much more willing to

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Speaker 3: check down to his running backs this year. He's targeted

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Speaker 3: running backs at the third highest rate this year. So

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Speaker 3: just based on that, there's a chance Herbert could average

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Speaker 3: you know, two to three catches a game. So even

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Speaker 3: though this This could be more of a fifty to

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Speaker 3: fifty committee going forward. I still think Herbert has the

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Speaker 3: upper hand and I'm viewing him as like a mid range,

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Speaker 3: a low end RB two this week.

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Speaker 2: It's scary though, because like you have to kind of

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Speaker 2: do your offensive schedule adjustments because the like the Broncos

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Speaker 2: defense and running backs. Like remember the week before it

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Speaker 2: was like Raheem Moster went crazy and then yeah, last

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Speaker 2: week it is like it's so hard, like anyone who

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Speaker 2: plays the Broncos, their stats are gonna be so skewed.

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Speaker 2: Is gonna be true? True?

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Speaker 3: Jack, That's what I'm saying. We can't. I can't expect

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Speaker 3: Herbert to rush for one hundred yards every week, and

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Speaker 3: I'm not calling for that this week, but just when

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Speaker 3: it comes with rotation, it's almost like Herbert is the

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Speaker 3: David Montgomery role right now, and Roshawn Johnson is the

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Speaker 3: Clue Herbert role. Yeah, That's kind of where I'm viewing it.

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Speaker 3: Whereas I like to be honest, I have Herbert in

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Speaker 3: a few leagues. Last week, I was afraid it looked

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Speaker 3: like Roshawan Johnson was gonna leap frog Herbert, like he

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Speaker 3: was trending up and then last week, you know, Herbert

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Speaker 3: ran away with it. So yeah, the efficiency will be

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Speaker 3: a bit lower against Commanders this week, but still very

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Speaker 3: encouraged with Herbert's susage last week.

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Speaker 2: There's some weird like reports last week was like, oh

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Speaker 2: Rashan Roshan Johnson's gonna you know, kind of draw even

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Speaker 2: with Herbert. Didn't happen. And what was the other report,

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Speaker 2: Zeke Elliott was gonna have more? Yeah, happened.

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Speaker 3: Either Cam Akers was gonna or they were gonna go

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Speaker 3: with the hot hand with Madison and Akers, and Madison

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Speaker 3: was the hot hand. So Madison had a a good

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Speaker 3: game again, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean that was at least a little less like,

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Speaker 2: come on, it's Cam I mean, can't Makers actually had

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Speaker 2: a pretty decent game though. Uh he looked he looked

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Speaker 2: good touches Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. Their run defense is

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Speaker 2: super shaky. Uh Okay. I am high on David Montgomery.

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Speaker 2: He's my RB two, He's RB twelve in ECR. Carolina

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Speaker 2: is allowing the fourth most fantasy points to opposing backfields

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Speaker 2: the second most rushing touchdowns to opposing backfields, which is

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Speaker 2: big when you look at Montgomery and uh, you know

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Speaker 2: he had he came back off an injury, weren't even

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Speaker 2: sure how healthy he was going to be, and had

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Speaker 2: over thirty carries and now he gets to ten day rest.

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Speaker 2: So uh, you know, Jamier Gibbs looks like he's a

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Speaker 2: clear you know, kind of like passing down kind of

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Speaker 2: second fiddle guy, and Montgomery's gonna continue to read this backfield.

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Speaker 2: But this is a game where I do have Detroit

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Speaker 2: getting more rushing attempts than usual because nine point favorites,

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Speaker 2: so we really haven't seen them that big a favorites

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Speaker 2: this season. So I love Montgomery this week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's clear that, you know, they want

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Speaker 3: him to be the workhorse back. When he got injured,

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Speaker 3: you know, he was saying he's week to week and

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Speaker 3: Dan Campbell's like, no, no, no, he's day to day. But

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Speaker 3: it's it's good to see everybody complaining about Jamior Gibbs.

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Speaker 3: We were talking about that, like he's gonna be sort

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Speaker 3: of the past catching back, maybe get some rush attempts

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Speaker 3: between the twenties, but Montgomery has the more fancy friendly

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Speaker 3: role with these these goal line carries, and he's probably

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Speaker 3: gonna see most of the work on early downs. Like

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Speaker 3: but it's been even better than expected. I mean, he's

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Speaker 3: a top ten back with Gibbs healthy, but imagine if

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Speaker 3: Gibbs were to miss any time. I mean, you haven't

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Speaker 3: inside your top three, but he'd be like a top

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Speaker 3: five back every week if Gibbs were to miss time.

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Speaker 3: So he has been by far one of the most

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Speaker 3: valuable picks in the draft is here, and.

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Speaker 2: He looks better than Gibbs, like Gibbs for all that speed,

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Speaker 2: like Gibbs hasn't like he had a couple of flashes

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Speaker 2: I think in week one, but like overall, Gibbs hasn't

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Speaker 2: looked like a guy where it's like, oh man, we

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Speaker 2: need to get this guy more touches. Montgomery's looked like

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Speaker 2: the better but yeah, so.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Montgomery, let's face, is more talented than Jamal Williams.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Montgomery's still in his prime at twenty six,

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Speaker 3: very good back, So this is just has not been

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Speaker 3: surprising at all to see him thrive in this offense.

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Speaker 2: Who you lo on?

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Speaker 3: I'm low on James Connor, which is weird because seems

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Speaker 3: like every week I'm high on him, but he's my

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Speaker 3: RB twenty six. This week ECR has him RB nineteen.

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Speaker 3: You know, they're at home against the Bengals, and it's

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Speaker 3: crazy to think. You know, the cards are only plus

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Speaker 3: three against the Bengals, but that's you know how bad

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Speaker 3: the Bengals have been with Joe Burrow tempting to play

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Speaker 3: through this calf injury, so you know, the Cardinals could

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Speaker 3: be a bit more run heavy than expected. You know,

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Speaker 3: they're like I said, they're only plus three underdogs, and

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Speaker 3: James Connor has been pretty effishent on the ground this year.

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Speaker 3: The Bengals ranked thirtieth in DBA against the run, which

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Speaker 3: is crazy because they ranked inside the top ten last year.

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Speaker 3: DJ Reader is healthy, so not sure why they're playing

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Speaker 3: so poor. I have to imagine it's just a sample

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Speaker 3: size issue. They gave up big games to Nick Chubb

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Speaker 3: and Derrick Henry, which is pretty forgivable in my opinion.

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Speaker 3: So for me, the main concern with Connor is just

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Speaker 3: his receiving usage. He's only average forty un rate the

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Speaker 3: past three games. And Josh Dobbs, you know he's he

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Speaker 3: has a ton of rushing upside. He prefers a scramble

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Speaker 3: as opposed to dumping it off the back, so he's

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Speaker 3: targeted running backs at the seventh lowest rate. So just

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Speaker 3: with this usage, you know, Connor is probably only going

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Speaker 3: to see one to two catches a game, so he's

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Speaker 3: going to be pretty touchdown dependant this week with the

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Speaker 3: team that has the seventh lowest team total this week.

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Speaker 3: So I'm just not high on Connor that much this week. So,

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Speaker 3: like I said, he's just outside you know, my RB

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Speaker 3: two range. He's more of an RB three flex for me,

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Speaker 3: whereas ECR has him as like a solid mid range

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Speaker 3: RB two.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he seems like a DFS tournament play because I mean,

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Speaker 2: the way the Vegans have been playing, I could see

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Speaker 2: them getting behind this game.

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Speaker 3: Shit.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but uh yeah for the as far as the

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Speaker 2: run dy, I mean, I don't I have to go

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Speaker 2: back and watch them from all twenty two, but the

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Speaker 2: only thing I could think of is, you know, they've

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Speaker 2: lost all those guys in the secondary, especially as safety,

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Speaker 2: and they have like a much younger secondary, so they

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Speaker 2: might just be dropping guys further back and kind of

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Speaker 2: play in the past. I have have to go watch

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Speaker 2: more to that, but yeah, it just seems like that

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Speaker 2: would that would really be the issue because personnel wise,

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Speaker 2: other like in the front seven, they're pretty much.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so you're just thinking of like baits and bell gun.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they might just be protecting against yeah, soft softer boxes.

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Speaker 2: I gotta I gotta check that though. But that's howab be.

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Speaker 3: My thought, Yeah, which is crazy. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like twenty twenty sixth in the EPA per play too.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, it hasn't been good. I'm all with

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Speaker 2: James Cook this week. He's not rby twenty, he's rby

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Speaker 2: thirteen in ECR. And this is just because number one,

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Speaker 2: I have a lot of respect for the Jags run defense.

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Speaker 2: They've been very good for the better part of the

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Speaker 2: last couple of years. This year they're fourth best in

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Speaker 2: terms of EPA per play allowed. They have the nice

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Speaker 2: uest rushing yards allowed to opposing backfields. And Cook, you know,

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Speaker 2: we really haven't seen him fully take over that featured

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Speaker 2: back role. They're still mixing in three guys Cook, Parris,

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Speaker 2: and Latavius Murray. And so Cook hasn't gotten more than

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Speaker 2: seventeen carries in a game. He's right around fifty six

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Speaker 2: percent of the of the backfield carries. So you know,

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Speaker 2: it's not quite as high as we want it for Cook.

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Speaker 2: And in a tough matchup, you know, he kind of

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Speaker 2: really bailed his owners out last week with a rushing touchdown.

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Speaker 2: He only had twelve carries for twenty nine yards, and

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Speaker 2: then he has got a forty eight yard reception. So

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Speaker 2: he's definitely explosive, and he's continuing to get the majority

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Speaker 2: the passing game work about running around about half the dropbacks.

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Speaker 2: But overall there's just you know, with Tamara back and

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Speaker 2: you know Saquon potentially playing this week, they're just more

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Speaker 2: backs that you project for more snaps than a James

385
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Speaker 2: Cook and this is a tough d so cooks my

386
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Speaker 2: RB twenty and that seventh spot slower.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it seems like every week there's a mixed bag

388
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 3: to take away from James Cook. Like this week he

389
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,399
Speaker 3: finally got a goal line kerry yep, but like you said,

390
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Speaker 3: like he needed that long forty eight yard catch to

391
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Speaker 3: salvage as well. But you know, his routes round rate

392
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Speaker 3: was like low thirties. Latavious Murray was playing most of

393
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Speaker 3: the third down I think the two minute offense. So

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Speaker 3: it's just been a mixed bag. But for whatever reason,

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Speaker 3: we haven't seen him like inherit a true workhorse role.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, he's definitely more of a low end RB

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Speaker 3: two and unless something changes, uh, let's go.

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Speaker 2: Here's a here, Yeah, let's go Raheem Moster because his

399
00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 2: usage has been very interesting to me, h In has

400
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Speaker 2: usurped it. It seems like in terms of the rushing anyway,

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Speaker 2: two weeks in a row, eight Han has gotten more carries,

402
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Speaker 2: So I am going to set most But this is

403
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Speaker 2: the Giants defense now, so they could both have plenty

404
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:24,400
Speaker 2: of work. So I'm gonna set Moster rushing yardage at

405
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Speaker 2: forty eight and a half.

406
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Speaker 3: Well, I wrote down fifty two and a half, is

407
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Speaker 3: my guess. That's a good line. I think Jeff Wilson's

408
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Speaker 3: expected to be back this week, so maybe they a

409
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Speaker 3: couple of snaps.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah they could. It could It could inact

411
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Speaker 2: deactivate up Brooks, I guess, although I think he plays specialty.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go over. But like like you said, it's

413
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Speaker 2: the Giants. Most Art can just break a long one

414
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Speaker 2: and this this one's toast, so I'll go. But that's

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Speaker 2: that's a pretty good line. Where the hell where do

416
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Speaker 2: you have a chine echan? Sorry ranked this week? He's

417
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Speaker 2: my seven? Is in your top ten?

418
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Speaker 3: Yet?

419
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 2: Yeah? RB nine one spot behind Etn, one spot ahead

420
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:16,719
Speaker 2: of Kiren.

421
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Speaker 3: So yep, crazy how fast he ascended to the top ten.

422
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Speaker 2: But he's just very good. It's just like breaking along

423
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Speaker 2: run Yeah yeah, yeah, Now I love what they're doing

424
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Speaker 2: with all that speed. It's gonna be really tough for defenses,

425
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Speaker 2: especially come playoff time when everyone's banged up, and there's

426
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Speaker 2: probably still gonna be fast as well.

427
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Speaker 3: Yeah.

428
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Speaker 2: Uh, all right, receiver top five we got.

429
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Speaker 3: Uh so I got Justin Jefferson, Tyry Hill, Poka Nakua

430
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 3: assuming Cooper cups out again this week. Uh, DeVante Adams

431
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 3: and Stefan Dicks.

432
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 2: I got Jefferson Hill, Chase Digs Adams, so pretty standards.

433
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,880
Speaker 2: Nikua is mye Well, I'll talk about him in a second.

434
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 3: Oh okay, yeah, who I'm high on Hollywood Brown. He's

435
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 3: my wide receiver eighteen. ECR has him wide receiver twenty

436
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 3: seven at you know, Brown was a solid sleeper pick

437
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:17,719
Speaker 3: outside of the top thirty receivers. I know we were

438
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 3: talking about him quite a bit with you know, Dondre

439
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,159
Speaker 3: Hopkins no longer with the team. He was going to

440
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 3: be the clear number one target. The only real concern

441
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 3: was just around the quarterback play with Kyler missing potentially

442
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,120
Speaker 3: you know, the first half of the season. But Josh

443
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 3: Dobbs has been playing solid enough at least to you know,

444
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 3: supply Brown with you know, mid range wide receiver two value.

445
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 3: He currently ranks wide receiver eighteen on the season. The

446
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: unrelying usage certainly backs it up. You know, he's averaging

447
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 3: a ninety six percent routes run rate uh and also

448
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 3: seeing a target on twenty four percent of those routes.

449
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 3: So he has at least five catches in each of

450
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 3: the last three games, has at least a touchdown or

451
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 3: ninety plus receiving yards and the three games, so he

452
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 3: just has a nice four ceiling combo. I just view

453
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 3: him as a solid wide receiver two right now, and

454
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 3: R still has him as more of a you know,

455
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 3: wide receiver three. Yeah.

456
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 2: Absolutely, he's my wide receiver seventeen. So I'm right there

457
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 2: with him.

458
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 3: Uh.

459
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 2: And that you know last week he was playing through

460
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,360
Speaker 2: a thumb injury or something of that sort. So yeah,

461
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 2: the fact that he's still able to produce, and Dobbs

462
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 2: looks better than expected, like you said, so totally agree.

463
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:28,719
Speaker 2: This is the number one receiver there. The rookie Wilson

464
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 2: is looking good too, so oh yeah, he he might.

465
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 2: He might do some things as the year progresses as well.

466
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 2: But Brown is a clear number one.

467
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 3: Uh.

468
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 2: I am high on Pokinakua and I have wide receiver six.

469
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,120
Speaker 2: I guess you're even higher, but he's the wide receiver ten.

470
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 2: In e CR Philadelphia has allowed the fifth most points

471
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 2: to opposing wide receivers. So I don't view this as

472
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 2: a super tough match up here. And I do think,

473
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 2: you know, Philadelphi's gonna be able to put some points

474
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: up on this Ram defense. So uh, you know, the

475
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 2: Rams are gonna have to probably be in comeback mode

476
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 2: and a lot of pass volume once again, and as

477
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 2: long as cups out, Yeah, I think Nicole continues to

478
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 2: see the football and he's just I mean, he's setting

479
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 2: records now, like there's there's there's just nobody that's been

480
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 2: doing what he's been doing. Through the first four games

481
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 2: of a career. He's leading the league in receptions. He

482
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 2: has thirty nine receptions for five hundred and one yards.

483
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 2: The one touchdown was a walk off. He's averaging thirteen

484
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 2: targets per game. I mean, there's nothing not to like

485
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 2: here with with the cool. He's averaging nine point eight catches.

486
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 2: He's intensive a catch away from ten doll digit catches.

487
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 2: A game like that is just absurd.

488
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, what's up with cup? He's returning their practice

489
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,120
Speaker 3: this week? Right? Do you think they just said them

490
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 3: out there? I have no idea if he's playing this week,

491
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 3: he could play.

492
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 2: I mean I think I think he'll definitely return to practice.

493
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 2: I'm sure you know the way they play, the receivers

494
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 2: have been playing, they probably don't want to rush it.

495
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 2: So I don't haven't projected back in yet. Although even

496
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 2: if I I think probably at Well would be the

497
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 2: one to drop, you know, Whokua would probably still be

498
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 2: a top top ten twelve fifteen wide receivers. So but yeah,

499
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 2: that's as as of now. I think I think he

500
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 2: is gonna They're gonna try to you know, practice and

501
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: see what's see how he works. Who are you, Lowa?

502
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 3: I'm low on Christian Kirk at Buffalo. He's my wide

503
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 3: receiver thirty four right now, wide receiver twenty four ECR

504
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 3: and he's been on a tearror the last three weeks

505
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 3: as the wide receiver thirteen. I kind of alluded to

506
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 3: that as long as A. Jones is out, you know,

507
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 3: Christian Kirk gets a huge boost. It allows Kirk to

508
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 3: play in two wide receiver sets. We saw in week

509
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 3: one and in the preseason Kirk is off the field

510
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 3: in two wide receiver sets. He only plays in three

511
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,479
Speaker 3: white sets. That's Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley are in

512
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,639
Speaker 3: two white sets. Plus, when Zay Jones is out, you know,

513
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 3: Kirk's target shat gets a huge boost too. So I

514
00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 3: have no idea if Zay Jones is returning this week.

515
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 3: So if he does, you know that right now, I'm

516
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 3: projecting za Jones' return. That's why my Christian Kirk production's

517
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 3: a bit lower. Plus, it's a tough matchup against the Bills,

518
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 3: who ranked second in dB AWA. Although they just lost

519
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 3: to Cherdavius White, which is a big blow. Jordan Poyer

520
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 3: is questionable after missing last week, so their secondary could

521
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 3: take a step back. But either way, this is still

522
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 3: a very tough matchup, like you alluded to with Trevor Lawrence,

523
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 3: So just be careful of Christian Kirk if you're in

524
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 3: leagues that just start two wide receivers. He might be

525
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 3: more of a bench this week. If Za Jones suits up,

526
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 3: so just something in a monitor.

527
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny because I'm actually low on Calvin Ridley

528
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 2: and I'm actually, I guess I'm higher than.

529
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 3: You and Kirk.

530
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 2: I have Kirk ranked ahead of Ridley because that's just

531
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 2: how they've been producing so far. Yeah, Ridley, you know,

532
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: he had that really good game to start the year

533
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 2: and we're like, Okay, he looks good. And now it's

534
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 2: like he hasn't looked as good and yeah, like the no,

535
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 2: like there's nothing, there's nothing really to hang your head

536
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:04,679
Speaker 2: on anymore. It's like you kind of just got to

537
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,479
Speaker 2: project him where he's been playing and his target per

538
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 2: route rate, even with Zay Jones missing, you know, the

539
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 2: last game and most of the last two, Ridley's target

540
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,400
Speaker 2: per route ray is just eighteen point five percent. That's

541
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 2: about five percent lower than Christian Kirks. You know, it's

542
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 2: lower than Evan Ingram's. Uh So you know this is

543
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 2: just this is his first year with the team, so

544
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 2: we don't have you know, we have to you know

545
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 2: the problem you know, using priors to come into the year.

546
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 2: Obviously some of it was based on what he did

547
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 2: with Atlanta, but now we're four games in. Ridley's run

548
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty six rounds, so we have like

549
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 2: a decent amount of data now and I'm little concerned

550
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:44,479
Speaker 2: about the target per route rate to have him as

551
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 2: a top you know, twenty wide receiver. So he's my

552
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 2: wide receiver twenty six to open the week. And uh yeah,

553
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 2: it's ten spots below ECR. So you know, I'm waiting.

554
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 2: He got he luckily, thankful we got the touchdown against

555
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 2: against Atlanta in London over still a tough matchup for Buffalo.

556
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 2: They're just schemed very well, you know, and they missed

557
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 2: White for a lot good part of last year and

558
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 2: they were still a very good defense. So yeah, it's

559
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 2: uh it does it look great for really? We hope.

560
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 2: I hope we can bounce back, but as of now, yeah,

561
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't see it as a top twenty

562
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 2: guy this week. This is your problem which you got.

563
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 3: Oh my god, I'm gonna have so much fun with this.

564
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 3: I don't know what line I'm gonna set yet, but

565
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 3: we're gonna go with Jamison Williams receiving yards against the Panthers.

566
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 3: The suspension was lowered by one game, so he returns

567
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 3: this week. So anybody that took him wide receiver forty five,

568
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 3: got him a week early. I know we were shitting

569
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 3: on him based on his draft position all season, but

570
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 3: even once he returned, he's not really a lock to

571
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 3: be the number two receiver. So curious to hear where

572
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 3: you're projecting him. But man, I'm gonna go with his median.

573
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 3: He's such a tough player to project. Yep, but over

574
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 3: under twenty four and a half receiving yards.

575
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 2: So I have his average at twenty six. So that's

576
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 2: an hundred. Oh it's it's a good line though, to

577
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 2: have him let's right, uh, closer to two, closer to

578
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 2: about uh yeah, about one point nine for twenty No,

579
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 2: one point seven for twenty six. So yeah, it's uh.

580
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 3: Who do you have him replacing Colleen Jones?

581
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: Oh well, yeah, Marvis Jones may may be a healthy

582
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 2: scrash this week.

583
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's barely running routes anyway. Okay, he's been.

584
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 2: He's been terrible, Yes, objectively worse than Jamison Williams could

585
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 2: ever be. So agree, he's got that going for him.

586
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 2: But yeah, so I have I have Kalif pretty much

587
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 2: running the same and Jamison up at yeah, about forty

588
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 2: five percent whatever Marvin's been, we have about forty five

589
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 2: percent of the routes so similar then, which is still

590
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 2: higher than he's ever played in his higher professional career.

591
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 2: So live here. If Jameson Williams actually gets the two catches,

592
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 2: I mean that would be that would be also be

593
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 2: the first time his career. So yeah, but you know,

594
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 2: he I don't think he's going to be the number

595
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 2: two receiver. Josh Reynolds has been very good in that role,

596
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 2: but I do think as bad as Marvin's playing, he'll

597
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 2: at least kind of split that role with Khalif with

598
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 2: a chance to kind of get to a similar route

599
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 2: run rate as Reynolds, which is around eighty percent. So

600
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 2: uh yeah, there's definitely some room for improvement here probably.

601
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 2: But yeah, this week is just not a great passing

602
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 2: week for the Lions either. So because like the met

603
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 2: like the average twenty sixth the median would be especially

604
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 2: for a violencil player like him, It's like his ceiling

605
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 2: is going to be like way higher and then his

606
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 2: floor is going to be almost zero. It really is zero.

607
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll go I think it's going to be

608
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 2: more sued.

609
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is a word of caution for

610
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 3: people just antsy to get him in your lineup, you

611
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 3: wouldn't do it right.

612
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 2: No, I haven't vi receive like seventy five, Like he's not.

613
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 3: I'm in a league where you could potentially start seven receivers.

614
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 3: Maybe in that league. Maybe I've made a joke.

615
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 2: In our action network NFL slack that yeah he games Williams.

616
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 2: I was gonna couldn't wait to start him in leagues

617
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 2: that need nine wide receivers, so you close your.

618
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 3: Club a couple of like that.

619
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, he's my receiver seventy four Well.

620
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 3: Like DFS tournaments like huge GPPs. Maybe, but I'm sure

621
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 3: people will be thinking about that anyway. But he is

622
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 3: just a high upside play with a like you said,

623
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 3: a floor of zero. He could easily have zero catches

624
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 3: this week.

625
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: More memories are made when you're there for live NFL

626
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,960
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631
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636
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637
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 2: L tight ends Who you got top five?

638
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 3: So I got Travis Kelsey, TJ. Howkins, and Mark Andrews,

639
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 3: Evan Ingram and Sam Laporta.

640
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 2: Nice I got Kelsey Hockinson, Andrews, Tyler Higbee, uh and

641
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 2: Evan Ingram.

642
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 3: Oh, can't complain about Higbee? There already have Darren Waller six. Okay, yeah,

643
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 3: he's tight in seven, but he's kind of benefiting from

644
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 3: all the tight ends in that range being kind of

645
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 3: crap shoots. But yeah, what a disappoint A healthy Darren

646
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 3: Waller just not able to produce very disappointing.

647
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Giants offense is just they without

648
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 2: without Andrew Thomas. It is just it's it's rough that offense.

649
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:58,719
Speaker 2: Who are you high on a tight end?

650
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 3: Uh? So I'm on the zach Ertz train. He's my

651
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 3: tight end nine. His ECR is tight end thirteen, and

652
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:08,800
Speaker 3: after week three it looked like Trey McBride might start

653
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 3: eating into ERT's playing time. You know, Ertz saws routes

654
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:15,320
Speaker 3: round rate dip down to sixty four percent, McBride's jumped

655
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 3: up to thirty two percent. However, in week four, Ertz

656
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 3: grabbed that lead roll right back and his routes run

657
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 3: rate were all the way back up to eighty percent.

658
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,879
Speaker 3: Cashed in with the six catch fifty three yard game,

659
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 3: saw ten targets, So he sneaks inside my top ten.

660
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 3: Like I said that the tight end position is a

661
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 3: disaster right now, and Ertz is. You know, he's seeing

662
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 3: that playing time, seeing the targets. So as long as

663
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 3: he's running, he route over eighty percent of Dobbs dropbacks,

664
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 3: I think we can trust him as a top tight

665
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 3: end ten tight end this week.

666
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's been, he's been. You know, the Cardinals in

667
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 2: general looks like they're game planning. Some guys like switch

668
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 2: change a little from week to week, but overall, yeah,

669
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 2: it looks like Ertz is three out of every four

670
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 2: at least drop backs like seventy five percent or higher

671
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 2: is usually gonna be his route to run every game.

672
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think, you know, he was kind of

673
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 2: an underrated guy when I you know, coming into the year,

674
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,239
Speaker 2: I was like, well, he's gonna play from week one.

675
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, tight ends don't age is like

676
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 2: poorly as wide receivers. I guess, you know, it's it's

677
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 2: not like they were ever using their athleticism outside of

678
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 2: a guy like maybe Kelsey. So yeah, Ertz has kind

679
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 2: of picked up where he left off, and uh yeah,

680
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:27,799
Speaker 2: he's he's a top twelve ton end for me as well.

681
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:30,799
Speaker 3: It's just weird he's holding off Trey McBride, who's one

682
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 3: of the top tight ends in that twenty twenty two class,

683
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 3: similar to Dallas godd Or in the Eagles days. But

684
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 3: like you said, Zach Ertz, he still looks good. He's

685
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 3: only thirty two, yeah, and the age curves are a

686
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 3: little bit different tight end, so he's he's playing well.

687
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 3: So I have no reason to think he's gonna like

688
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 3: get leap frog by McBride.

689
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, I mean, once you have, like I got

690
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 2: to understand the draft pedigree. But it's like once you

691
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 2: see a guy in the league, it's like Jamison Williams

692
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 2: is like you can only like rely on at draft

693
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 2: pedigree so long, it's like we've seen a year plus

694
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 2: a McBride and there's nothing to indicate that he's better

695
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 2: than zach Ertz. Not if he might not be bad,

696
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,359
Speaker 2: but he's definitely not better than zach Ertz.

697
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 3: That's it was like a fringe Hall of Famer type

698
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 3: of tight ends.

699
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,319
Speaker 2: So right, yeah, well he got a he did get

700
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 2: a ring right with the Eagles.

701
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, yeah.

702
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's one of those guys that could sneak in

703
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 2: and got the ring. He's gonna have a ton of numbers.

704
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 2: I mean yeah, like he could play for five six

705
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:31,280
Speaker 2: more years at least, so we'll see. I'm high on Higbee,

706
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 2: as probably guests. His tight end five tighten eleven in

707
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 2: ECR phillies around the second most points to tight end.

708
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 2: Higby's playing on eighty five percent of the dropbacks. He's

709
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 2: running a route that's one of the highest in the

710
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,640
Speaker 2: league among tight ends. Kelsey was at eighty three percent

711
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:51,280
Speaker 2: last week. So that shows you just how much usage

712
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 2: Tyler Higby is getting. He's by tight in four. Sorry

713
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 2: I think I said my time four. Uh so yeah,

714
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 2: I have Higbee projected for four and a half catches

715
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 2: forty three yards and point about aero point three touchdowns,

716
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:08,320
Speaker 2: So uh, tight ends doesn't take a lot and yeah

717
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 2: in what I believe should be a pass heavy game

718
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 2: script for the Rams this week. I love Higbee against

719
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 2: Philly who you love?

720
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 3: It was interesting his his achilles injury got better after

721
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 3: he got his contract. Yeah, something a monitor our boy.

722
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 3: Kien Williams is dealing with the hip injury. Oh yeah,

723
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:31,359
Speaker 3: I mean he might still play. It's only Tuesday. But

724
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:33,280
Speaker 3: if you're in a mess, you know, those are probably

725
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 3: targets that probably could be going to Higby. So if

726
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:39,760
Speaker 3: Kiren's out, that could you know, boost Higby's projection projection

727
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 3: even more.

728
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 2: Fire up the Ronnie Rivers.

729
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:48,280
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, Bucy zach Evans finally but yeah.

730
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the fact if he's been a healthy

731
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 2: scratch the first four weeks. Yeah, I'm not trusted with Veig.

732
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 2: We know how McVeigh. Yeah, I think the takes a

733
00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:58,439
Speaker 2: stand on a running back.

734
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 3: There just red shirting him this year for sure.

735
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:04,359
Speaker 2: Who long?

736
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:09,399
Speaker 3: I'm low on Dalton Schultz. He's my tight end twenty three.

737
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 3: Esier has him like tight end sixteen. You know, he

738
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 3: had a good week last week. He was a tight

739
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 3: end five, he had three catches for forty two yards

740
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 3: and a touchdown. The touchdown basically salvaged his week. But

741
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 3: the Texans used a ton of twenty one personnel last week,

742
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 3: which is a formation Schultz doesn't typically plan. Maybe that

743
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:30,839
Speaker 3: was just the game plan for the Steelers, but either way,

744
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 3: he only finished with a forty two percent routes run

745
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 3: rate and he's only seen a target on thirteen percent

746
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 3: of his routes. I know, heading into the season, we

747
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 3: were trying to figure out who's going to be the

748
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 3: top target in this offense. You know it could be Schultz,

749
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 3: but CJ. Stroud has been relying on these three receivers

750
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 3: that have been all playing incredible. I'll even admit that

751
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 3: Robert Woods is playing well, but yeah, you're boy, Tank

752
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 3: Dell's tearing it up. Nicos my guy, my guy the

753
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 3: past three years. Finally he broke out Nico Collins. So

754
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 3: it's these three wide receiver is the passing attack. So

755
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 3: Dalton Troutz had a good game last week, but I

756
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 3: would not put him in your lamps this week. Even

757
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 3: as much of a disaster this tight end position is.

758
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 3: You can't trust him. So I'm low on Dalton Schultz

759
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 3: this week.

760
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean his touchdown was wasn't from Stroud, right,

761
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 2: it was from who was that was it? Singletary?

762
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,399
Speaker 3: Yeah? It was that two yard thing.

763
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 2: It was a It was a definitely a trick player.

764
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 2: Now now I'm curious, hold on.

765
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's probably the game I was watching the least Singletary.

766
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh, I was watching that game. I had Texans

767
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 2: and uh I had the Texans plus three six d

768
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:40,280
Speaker 2: very interested.

769
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:45,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, but at a certain point you knew that was cashing.

770
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 2: Yeah.

771
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:52,280
Speaker 3: I mean Stroud looked amazing. He doesn't have an offensive

772
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 3: line still.

773
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 2: It's no, it's been I mean the play calling Stroud.

774
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 2: I mean he had one bad that I saw where

775
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 2: it was really t J. Watt just wrecked the play.

776
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 2: It was like a fourth and one and he had

777
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,359
Speaker 2: a man open and he just short armed it because

778
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 2: what kind of got the pressure. But I mean that's

779
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 2: you know, t J. Wat You could forgive that. Yeah,

780
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,439
Speaker 2: but now Strauders looked amazing. Sultz just not playing enough,

781
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 2: just not on the field enough. I'm all George Kittle,

782
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 2: I you know, I talked about this before the season,

783
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:25,439
Speaker 2: like George Kittle was the one whose target rate took

784
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 2: a like went down when McCaffrey came. And I find

785
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 2: it very concerning that last week Deebo Samuel did not

786
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 2: draw a target. He was like a decoy because he

787
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 2: was hurt, and George Kittle still didn't really do much

788
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 2: of anything. So I have him tight in eighth this week,

789
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 2: and he's still a top five tight end in ECR,

790
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 2: but you know, tough match up against the Cowboys, and

791
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:51,399
Speaker 2: you know, he's just not getting the production I think

792
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 2: Deebo could be, you know, back to closer to full

793
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 2: health this week. I was just playing unreal this year.

794
00:40:57,719 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 3: He's a monster.

795
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know, it's just another one of these

796
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 2: kind of disappointing tight ends. I don't you know, he

797
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:07,320
Speaker 2: could have a big week any week, but last last

798
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 2: year he really kind of saved his fantasy production with

799
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 2: a lot of touchdowns, which historically hasn't been a big

800
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 2: touchdown guy. But yeah, I thought I just thought it

801
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 2: was kind of concerning that he hasn't really blown up

802
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 2: too much this year, and guys have been in and

803
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 2: out of the lineup, you know, I yukes miss games,

804
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 2: Debo has been has a zero target target game, so

805
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 2: uh yeah, lo one Kittle. That's my problem, right, go

806
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 2: Kyle Pits receiving yards. Oh god, yep, yep. It's been

807
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 2: a frustrating season if you have drastic Kyle Pits, and

808
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 2: if you still haven't traded him, it's probably even more frustrating.

809
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 2: I am going to set his receiving yardage prop at

810
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 2: thirty six and a half.

811
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 3: Well, I wrote thirty five and a half for the record,

812
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:01,280
Speaker 3: so another great line. H Look, he's either gonna finish

813
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 3: with like twenty or eighty, so I'll lean under just

814
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 3: because this is a game that they could be in

815
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 3: the leading game strip although the Texans are feisty, so

816
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:20,319
Speaker 3: I mean his underlying usage is good. He's seeing targets downfield,

817
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 3: so he might only need a couple of catches to

818
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 3: get there. But I think his meeting is a bit lower,

819
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 3: So I'm a yard under you, so I'll go under. Okay,

820
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 3: but he could that's the Kyle Pitts experience. You know

821
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 3: he's gonna have four dot and then he held a

822
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 3: big game. Everybody will be talking about how talented is

823
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 3: and you know the season's turning round. But that's He's

824
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:43,320
Speaker 3: just a boombust weekly option, kind of like George Kittle

825
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,800
Speaker 3: is like you mentioned, like as long as everybody's healthy,

826
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 3: it's just gonna be hard for him to be consistent.

827
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 3: So he just has a wide range of outcomes. Unfortunately,

828
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 3: he's one of the more talented tight ends, but we

829
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 3: just can't bank on him week to week. So yeah,

830
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 3: great line, but I'm gonna go under.

831
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 2: I mean, we say we can't bank on the week

832
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:02,720
Speaker 2: to week, but John and Smith is called what five.

833
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:04,839
Speaker 3: Week?

834
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 2: So it's clearly doable.

835
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 3: So this is Jon Smith is who we want Kyle

836
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 3: Pitts to be, right.

837
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's unreal, Okay, it's really crazy. This is

838
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 2: that's gonna do it for a week five NFL Player

839
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 2: Projections episode of the Action Network Podcast presented by bet

840
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 2: m GM. For more great fantasy content from Sean and I,

841
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,600
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842
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843
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 2: if you're into betting, be sure to check out my

844
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:38,240
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845
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:42,120
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848
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