1 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul swing you. 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Wicks. Each day 3 00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:12,560 Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor, find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:21,640 Speaker 1: that Bloomberg dot com. Well. As we dig deeper into 8 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:24,639 Speaker 1: the two point four trillion dollars stimulus bill the US 9 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: Congress past, we are finding all sorts of interesting provisions. 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 1: One highlighted my President Trump himself the idea that there 11 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: would be ten billion dollars that would go to the 12 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,559 Speaker 1: US Postal Service to help support and plug some of 13 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 1: the gaps that have emerged in the wake of the coronavirus. However, 14 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: President Trump saying that unless the Postal Service raises its prices, 15 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:49,560 Speaker 1: particularly on last mile delivery packages, it will instruct Secretary 16 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary Stephen Manuchin to withhold that ten billion dollars. 17 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: Tim O'Brien, who's a senior columnist with Bloomberg Opinion, joining 18 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 1: us now. Tim always wonderful to hear what you have 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: to say about this. How much of a surprise was 20 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: this to people who saw President Trump pinpoint this specific issue. Um. 21 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 1: I don't think it's a surprise that you know, he 22 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: wants he's seeking change at the Postal Service. The Postal 23 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 1: Service needs change. Uh. Nor is it a surprise that 24 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 1: he's focused in again on the pricing the Postal Service 25 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: charges for packages. However, the way he's focusing on it 26 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: is incorrect. The package delivery piece of the post Office 27 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: is business, is its most robust and profitable. It's mail 28 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: carrying that's a problem for the post Office. I think 29 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: what was surprising was he was in the Oval Office 30 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: and he simply said what everyone has suspected has been 31 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 1: on his mind for a long time, is that he 32 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: singled out Amazon dot com as as one of the 33 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: reasons he has um this animosity towards the Postal Service. 34 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: President Trump has said that the Postal Service loses money 35 00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 1: on every package is that delivers. Is that right? Nope, 36 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 1: it's not correct. Again, that's a that's a very profitable 37 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 1: part of the postal services business and has been, you know, 38 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 1: alongside the boom and e commerce. Uh. The Postal Service 39 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 1: plays a really important role for commercial deliverers like FedEx 40 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: and US and ups um delivering packages through the so 41 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: called last mile to people's homes. It's not efficient or 42 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: really profitable for the commercial carriers to use, so they 43 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: rely on the post post office for that, and that 44 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 1: has been a really bright spot in the postal services business. 45 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: Over the last fourteen to fifteen years or so, mail 46 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: carrying has really declined, and that's always been the lions share. 47 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: The post Office is business and that's where they're really hurting, 48 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,079 Speaker 1: and that's what they need to fix. So the president's 49 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: identifying the wrong thing. Tim, I want to switch gears 50 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,640 Speaker 1: a little bit and move from the postal service to 51 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 1: just the general two point four trillion dollar bailout, In particular, 52 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: the p p P the area that was in did 53 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: to help support small businesses. How good is the oversight 54 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: of that program, Given the fact that we're learning that 55 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,399 Speaker 1: a good proportion of the money has gone to either 56 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: publicly traded companies or others who had other means of financing, 57 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 1: it's clearly not good enough at all, Lisa, and this 58 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: was something I think we talked about a couple of 59 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 1: weeks ago when the first tranche of money launched the 60 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 1: first billion. Um uh. You know, I personally think it's 61 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 1: a good idea that we're we're supporting businesses in this crisis, 62 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 1: but I think it has to be supported in a 63 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: really efficient and rational way. And the problem with that 64 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: first big trunch of money, as we now know, is 65 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: it went to people who had either other resources, other 66 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 1: companies that have other resources to raise funds, or we're 67 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 1: simply too big to fit any of the definitions that 68 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: program had for a small business, which was five hundred 69 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 1: employees or left. Um. I think based on my own 70 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 1: back of the envelope math, only about five percent of 71 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: the country's small businesses got money in that first round. 72 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: And so now we have a second round that's larger billion, 73 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 1: and there's still really isn't enough good oversighting place. The 74 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 1: General Accountability Office is going to be um watching some 75 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 1: of this. They're, you know, very well regarded bipartisan organization, 76 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,280 Speaker 1: but they don't report until the end of June at 77 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 1: the earliest, and all of the other congressional and White 78 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: House watchdog organizations aren't up and running yet. I was 79 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 1: struck by a story today on the Bloomberg about study 80 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 1: that showed that only of the money went to small 81 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 1: businesses in areas that were the hardest hit by the coronavirus. 82 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 1: Is your sense that this next tronch of financing that 83 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 1: starts getting distributed this week will be more equally distributed? 84 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 1: One would hope there's not enough transparency yet to know. 85 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: And and so that's a great question you're raising LESA, 86 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 1: and it's and and the and and Bloomberg News is 87 00:04:56,400 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 1: reporting on that is is really important. I think the 88 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 1: other thing we don't know is p p P is 89 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 1: a payroll protection plan. It's meant to help workers get 90 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: over this hump during this crisis, and we really don't 91 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: have any auditing arm in place to know if the 92 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: companies are even actually using it for payroll. And I 93 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:23,159 Speaker 1: have this, you know, lingering, journalistic, cynical kind of worry 94 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 1: that at the end of the day, will never know 95 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: if a god to the workers. So what should happen here? 96 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,840 Speaker 1: Tim from an oversight perspective, real quickly twenty seconds, um, 97 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 1: I think I think it should happen at the federal 98 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 1: level in the White House to begin with. I think 99 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: they need to screen right out of the gate who's 100 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:40,040 Speaker 1: getting the money, and there should be really clear criteria 101 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: for why and how they're getting it and how they're 102 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,719 Speaker 1: going to use it. Tim O'Brian, thanks so much for 103 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: joining us. We appreciate your thoughts. As always Tim O'Brian's 104 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 1: senior columns for Bloomberg Opinion. Check out his column UH 105 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 1: today on the Bloomberg and Bloomberg dot Com. Trump views 106 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 1: post office as a way to settle scores. Interesting column, 107 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: interesting take on that on a big issue. There you 108 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:02,839 Speaker 1: can read all of Tim's work at Bloomberg dot com, 109 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 1: slash Opinion or on the terminal at O P I 110 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: n go for all of Bloomberg Opinion work. Well, we 111 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: are now in probably week five or six of this quarantine, 112 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 1: more and more of us working from home. The question is, 113 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: are we more or less productive than we are when 114 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 1: we are in our workplace? Uh Nicholas Bloom, professor of 115 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 1: economics at Stanford University, has done a lot of work 116 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:31,359 Speaker 1: on this concept. We welcome uh Professor Bloom. So professor, 117 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. I know initially your 118 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 1: work suggested that working from alms actually you could be 119 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: more productive. Is that's still the case in the world 120 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 1: of the coronavirus. Yes, I looked at you know, a 121 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 1: number of studies, and normally working from home is at 122 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 1: least to a big increase in productivity. But we're coronavirus. 123 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 1: We've got four big issues. One many of us have 124 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 1: our kids are home, which is she's distracting. Uh open, 125 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 1: don't have our own and so a lot of people 126 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: are staring living room. When I looked at working from home, 127 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 1: we looked at people who chose to work from home, 128 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: and you know, many of us did not show him 129 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: would not like to do so. And then finally, um, 130 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: we also looked at working from home part time, so 131 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 1: something like of Americans with a graduate from home a 132 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: day a week, but only super century full time. But 133 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 1: we're now all forced at home full time. I will say, Nick, 134 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: in a research recent research published that you you put 135 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: out there. You said working from home with your children 136 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: as a productivity disaster. My four year old regularly bursts 137 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 1: into the room hoping to find me in a playful mood, 138 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: shouting do do her nickname for me? In the middle 139 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: of conference calls. We've all been there, Nick, And I'm 140 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: wondering how much is this simply a parenting issue versus 141 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: a non parenting issue or something broader about this idea 142 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: of being more productive when you're face to face with 143 00:07:56,400 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: coworkers and in an office environment. So there is a 144 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: big issue, may you know, I thought year does burst 145 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: in in fact, why you know, our older kids are 146 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: learning to play the bagpipe, and though which is worse. 147 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: Even setting that aside, there's a bigger issue. Once we 148 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 1: go back post COVID, around one third of jobs only 149 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: are suitable to work from home. So there's a study 150 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: out of Chicago University that looked at jobs and you know, 151 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: for managers, for a senior people, you know, for journalist 152 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 1: for example, much of this can be done at home, 153 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: but the large parts of the economy we can't do that. 154 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: So for some of us it's fantastic when our kids 155 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 1: are back at school and when we have you know, 156 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: space and time. But I don't think it's ever going 157 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 1: to be like it was now, which is free time. 158 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 1: It turns out the evidence is strongly needs something like 159 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: three days a week to be in the office to 160 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 1: be motivating and creative. And the problem is now we 161 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 1: just don't have that eye that's not even kids. There's 162 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 1: no face efface interactions. So professor, I mean, some people 163 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: have been suggesting that this is going to accelerate the 164 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:04,079 Speaker 1: work from home kind of Um, I guess migration that's 165 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: been taking place really over the last ten fifteen years. 166 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 1: Do you think that is reasonable to assume. Yes, definitely. 167 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 1: So we we went from before COVID from a level 168 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 1: of working from homers it was common one day a week, 169 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: but it was extremely rare full time obviously even now 170 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,199 Speaker 1: all working from home full time to post COVID. But 171 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:24,719 Speaker 1: I think we're just back to a higher level, but 172 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 1: a lot like we are now. So I think it 173 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 1: would be most jobs will probably allow their employees to 174 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 1: work from home something like two I doubt memory encourage 175 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: all the time. And that's going to have a huge impact. 176 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 1: Even how attractive is it to live in the center, 177 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: don't have to commute in five those weeks, why not 178 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: further out? So I think it's just going to be 179 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,839 Speaker 1: a huge impact. Um. You know. A great example is 180 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 1: London after the London Olympics two thousand and twelve, they 181 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 1: shot the center of London for three weeks to avoid 182 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: congestion and those sort of mtic long run pickup and 183 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: working from home because of the success that I think, 184 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 1: because it's kind of like a bigger at so Nick, 185 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: there's this question. The reason why this is so important 186 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 1: to so many people right now, in addition to just 187 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: what the future holds for people who do have the 188 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 1: privilege of being able to work from home, is the 189 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,679 Speaker 1: fate of commercial real estate going forward? And you've had 190 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: a lot of business leaders from Work in Stanley CEO 191 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: to Black Black Rocks CEO come out and say that 192 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 1: they think one of the bigger consequences of this is 193 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: that companies will need less real estate. Does this sort 194 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: of mark the death of commercial real estate, of the 195 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 1: sort of big office given the fact that people will 196 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 1: be able to work from home more frequently, or are 197 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 1: those calls getting a little ahead of themselves. No, I 198 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: think it's a you know, it's a bleak time for 199 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: commercial real estate and also actually residential real estate in 200 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 1: the center of cities. If we go from you know, 201 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: working from home, that is very rare. So let's say 202 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 1: two out of five days a week you continue, you 203 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:58,199 Speaker 1: probably need school blessed office space even can't perfectly hot 204 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:01,840 Speaker 1: death stands that, you know, that kind of top and demand, 205 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: it's going to be problematic. It's not obvious by the 206 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 1: way you want still maintain big officers. I just think 207 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: we need less of them unless those headquarters. So that's 208 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 1: going to be a big switch. If you look at 209 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: firms that do working from home, they don't typically operate 210 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 1: smaller satellite officers. They just required people are coming less 211 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: presently to their may not. Nicholas Bloom, thank you so 212 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: much for being with us, and good luck working from 213 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: home with the kids and the bagpipes. Nicholas Bloom, professor 214 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: of economics at Stanford University, joining us from Stanford, California. 215 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: We know this too, cute. G D print is going 216 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:38,839 Speaker 1: to be ugly. The question is how ugly and how 217 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 1: long will it remain at those depressed levels of Welcome 218 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: Tom or Like, chief economist for Bloomberg Economics, he joins 219 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 1: us on the phone. Tom, thanks so much for joining us. 220 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: I know Bloomberg Economics is that with some new research. 221 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: What is your update and current economic outlook as we 222 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 1: await the second quarter GDP print. Um, So it's a 223 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 1: pretty bleak outlook, Paul Um. Globally we are now looking 224 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,839 Speaker 1: at a contraction of four for the year. That's our 225 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: base case. UM. Now, if we think back to two 226 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 1: thousand and nine, the Great financial crisis that was a 227 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: pretty bad year. The global economy that year only shrank, 228 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: not point two. So our base case is actually something 229 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: substantially more negative. If we look in more detail at 230 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: the United States, looking at the looking at the first 231 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 1: quarter number, well, it kind of depends how much the 232 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 1: lockdown hit. It came right at the end of March. 233 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 1: We'll see how much it it took off that first 234 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 1: quarter of print. The second quarter, certainly we're looking at 235 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 1: a very steep contraction. Our US team is penciling in 236 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: a thirty seven annualized drop in the second quarter. I'm 237 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 1: struggling to pair these increasingly bleak outlooks with the optimism 238 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:57,319 Speaker 1: that we're seeing in markets right now, at least in 239 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: equity markets, and a lot of people are saying traders 240 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: are just looking past the second quarter and even the 241 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: third quarter and looking into the fourth quarter when we 242 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 1: should get a resurgence in economic activity. I'm wondering how 243 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 1: much that's your base case that we're not going to 244 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 1: get necessarily a second wave of the coronavirus and we'll 245 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:23,320 Speaker 1: get meaningful pickups in growth heading towards September, November, December. Yeah, 246 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: I think that's a great question question Lisa and I 247 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 1: to see a disconnect between some fairly bleak or rather 248 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 1: historically bleak economic numbers coming down the line UM and 249 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: the and what's going on in the equity market UM. 250 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: So our base case is the eytbreak comes under control 251 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: in the second quarter, and we see a reasonably rapid 252 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 1: pick up in the third quarter as lockdown's ease. Now 253 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:56,319 Speaker 1: that's our base case, but it comes with some unusually 254 00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 1: large caveats UM. The first one is what happens to 255 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 1: the virus. Well, it seems like from what happened in China, 256 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: a lockdown can be successful in essentially permanently bringing it 257 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: under control. But we don't know if that can be 258 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 1: replicated around the world, and we don't even really know 259 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: if it will stick in China, So it's entirely possible 260 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: we could see cases popping back up again in the 261 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: third and fourth quarter, a lockdown coming back in in 262 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 1: the final weeks and months of the year, and even 263 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: our four percent contraction calls for global GDP could turn 264 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 1: out to be too pessimist, too optimistice, Sorry, carry on, 265 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 1: pool go ahead, Sorry, I was The second big risk 266 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: is well, we think that the underlying economy is actually okay, 267 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: and so once you get rid of the virus and 268 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: you get rid of the lockdown, people can come back 269 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: to work and growth comes back pretty quickly. That's actually 270 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 1: also an optimistic assumption. We're seeing twenty six million people 271 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: losing their jobs in the United States, similar impact across 272 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 1: other big economies, businesses going bankrupt. It's possible that this 273 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 1: is going to be a scarring recession and high unemployment. 274 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 1: Business bankruptcies, perhaps even some bank failures are going to 275 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 1: mean that the recovery in the third and fourth quarter 276 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: intoe just isn't that robust. So time just quickly. How 277 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 1: bad do you think this unemployment rate is going to be? 278 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 1: And then I guess how permanent? I guess you were 279 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: kind of touching on that a little bit. How permanent 280 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 1: do you feel like it will be? Are we at 281 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: a higher level of just annallywing unemployment going forward? So 282 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 1: we think that the unemployment rate in the second quarter 283 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 1: is going to push close to um that's an extraordinarily 284 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: high level. Back in the Great Financial Crisis, it got 285 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 1: to so we're looking at a really really high level 286 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 1: of unemployment. The question for the longer term is, well, 287 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 1: have businesses just said, Okay, take a break, we'll call 288 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 1: you in three months, and when the lockdown is over, 289 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: people can basically get back to work and its business 290 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 1: as usual. Or are we looking at a more damaging 291 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: break in the labor market if we see people being 292 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 1: furloughed and then those furloughs turning into permanent unemployment, and 293 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: that's going to be a much more serious drag on output, 294 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 1: and we'd be looking at a creeping recovery in the 295 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 1: second half and into Tom more like thank you so 296 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: much for being with us, Tom, or like chief economists 297 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: for a Bloomberg Economics joining us from Washington, d C. 298 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 1: In five weeks, the US labor market erased what took 299 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,920 Speaker 1: more than a decade to build more than twenty six 300 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 1: million jobs lost as the coronavirus rereaked havoc across the 301 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: United States. We're expecting millions more in the filing initial 302 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 1: jobless filings come Thursday. A question about how quickly these 303 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 1: jobs will return and what businesses could and should and 304 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: would be doing to bring these people back online as 305 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:03,760 Speaker 1: we get signs that the virus is subsiding. James Sinclair 306 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:05,880 Speaker 1: on the front lines of all of this chief executive 307 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: officer of Enterprise Alumni based in Los Angeles. James, you 308 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 1: talk with employers, how much are they planning for the reset, 309 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 1: the post coronavirus re jiggering of the economy as they 310 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 1: try to get a greater proportion of their employees back online. 311 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 1: Good morning, Lisa, Thanks for having me. You're absolutely right. 312 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,399 Speaker 1: So we work with some of the largest companies in 313 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 1: the world, and we're seeing this massive influx of new 314 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 1: customers across retail and tourism, travel, and so we do 315 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 1: have a good pulse of what's next and what's needed 316 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: to restart, and we are seeing a lot of organizations 317 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 1: leveraging Enterprise Alumni to start their rehiring plan. This concept 318 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 1: of who's available um not only people who used to 319 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 1: work for them just before the crisis, but also historically 320 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 1: and their ability to be able to ramp up very 321 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: quickly by using alumni or former employees who used to 322 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: work for the organization. So, James spaced upon kind of 323 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 1: what you're hearing some of the companies that you talked to. 324 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 1: How quickly do you think this restart will occur, will 325 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 1: be a gradual type of thing, or are these companies 326 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:13,880 Speaker 1: chomping at the bit. So I think there are two conversations. 327 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 1: Number one, it's how do we manage the community today? 328 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 1: All of these people that we followed, all these people 329 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 1: that we need to communicate with and place into a 330 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,920 Speaker 1: central resource to have that conversation. But I think people 331 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,399 Speaker 1: are chomping at a bit is almost an understatement. I 332 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: think we're all chumping at a bit. And the question 333 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: is what does that recovery look like and how are 334 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 1: they going to potentially make up for lost time? But 335 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,639 Speaker 1: how are they going to start really quickly? Because they 336 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 1: can't afford a three to four week productivity cycle. They 337 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: need people that are going to hit the ground running. Uh. 338 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: And so to that to a lot of customers we're 339 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 1: speaking to, that tends to be the biggest priority now 340 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 1: that when we get the go ahead or the green light, 341 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 1: how can we scale up very very rapidly. James, we're 342 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:58,159 Speaker 1: talking about the jobs market in the United States as 343 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,280 Speaker 1: though we're a modelist, and obviously so not. In different 344 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 1: industries have gotten hit harder than others. I know that 345 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 1: your company makes software that are used that's used by 346 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: a variety of different companies and industries. NESTLYE p and G. 347 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 1: Marriat HSBC. I'm wondering how specific will the restart be 348 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 1: two companies that are better positioned to weather this. In 349 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 1: other words, could we see everyone get back online yet 350 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,959 Speaker 1: the hotels remain with furload employees for a lot longer. 351 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: I think from what we're seeing from the staffing plans 352 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 1: that organizations are leveraging in our in our application is 353 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:37,159 Speaker 1: that it is going to be gradual, that even though 354 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:39,439 Speaker 1: there's going to be a green light and a mass 355 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 1: re higher, it is going to be industry specific. You 356 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 1: take the airlines overnight, They're not suddenly going to have 357 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: fil rates on their planes, same as occupantcy for hotel, 358 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: same as restaurants. Just because the market is reopening, it 359 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: doesn't mean everyone's going to feel comfortable suddenly going to 360 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,919 Speaker 1: a sports game, going to a conference, or jumping on 361 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,719 Speaker 1: a plane. So so they are expecting that when they 362 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: do reopen, they're going to reopen as smaller organizations. So jameson, 363 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: how about some small business owners We've seen, you know, 364 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 1: a lot of pain there on Main Street USA. Any 365 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 1: sense of how they are trying to manage to do this, 366 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 1: how they plan on reopening once they do get that 367 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:22,920 Speaker 1: green light. I think the smaller and medium sized businesses 368 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 1: across the US, this is really going to be leveraging 369 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 1: their community, leveraging all the goodwill they've built over the 370 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 1: number of years. You know, we're hoping that as many 371 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 1: businesses as possible will survive post this, but I think 372 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:38,159 Speaker 1: the recovery is going to be really again leveraging this community. 373 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 1: So again, whether you're a small business or a large 374 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 1: cust a large customer of ours, you're still thinking about 375 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:44,880 Speaker 1: that network and all the people that used to work 376 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 1: for you that you've had a relationship with, because also 377 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 1: right now they become your brand advocates. We see a 378 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,919 Speaker 1: lot of customers right now recognizing that the ad spend 379 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: is so small, So how can we leverage all of 380 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 1: our former employees to push our messaging, push our programming 381 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,400 Speaker 1: and kind of give us the reach that we would 382 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 1: normally have to pay for. James how much goodwill, though, 383 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 1: has been lost for some of these employees who have 384 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 1: lost their jobs. So I think this becomes company to 385 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,119 Speaker 1: company where this is an opportunity to really see the 386 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,200 Speaker 1: type of organization for what they are, their culture and 387 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 1: their values. We have one retail company that has whisked 388 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 1: up a platform for Enterprise Alumni for all of their 389 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 1: former employees, for all of those furloughed, and one of 390 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 1: the things they're doing is every week the CEO is 391 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: doing a town hall talking to them about what's happening 392 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,120 Speaker 1: in the market, what they can expect, how they might 393 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 1: up skill. We have another customer in tourism who is 394 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: offering all of their furloughed employees access to an MBA program, 395 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: access to learning, access to skills. So I think you're 396 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,639 Speaker 1: seeing a lot of companies using this opportunity to a 397 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 1: be great employers and ensure they're offering those furloughed employees 398 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 1: access to resources to help them up skill and be 399 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: better post crisis, but also be great communicators because none 400 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 1: of us really you know, you know what that date 401 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: is for for rebound. Jameson Claire, thank you so much 402 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 1: for joining us. We appreciate you talking to us about 403 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:12,240 Speaker 1: how when the governments and corporations reopen, how will they 404 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:15,639 Speaker 1: staff themselves. James Sinclair, CEO of Enterprise Alumni based in 405 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 1: Los Angeles, So at least that's gonna be very interesting. 406 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:19,680 Speaker 1: I'm really focused on kind of these small and midsized 407 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,200 Speaker 1: businesses you know, yeah, yeah, I hope that they can 408 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: uh survive this, and you hope some of those fiscal 409 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: stimulus actually gets to them, uh to help them bridge 410 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,399 Speaker 1: the gap and then uh, you know, when they do 411 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 1: get the green light, you know how many of them 412 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,120 Speaker 1: will be able to come back. That's gonna be really key. 413 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,359 Speaker 1: It's such a complicated process, I gotta say. And to 414 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 1: sort of predict how many employees you may need, knowing 415 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 1: that the people you don't hire won't be able to 416 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: go out and spend and accelerate the economy bends your mind. Yeah, 417 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:49,959 Speaker 1: it really does. It really does. And that we've never 418 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 1: had this economy obviously has never had to do anything 419 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 1: like this, I would argue, even with the Great Depression. 420 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 1: So we'll have to see how this plays out. But 421 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 1: key is going to be fiscal stimulus, and we're gonna 422 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:03,159 Speaker 1: get some more is on that this week. This is Bloomberg. 423 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg pen L podcast. You 424 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or 425 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney, I'm on 426 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa Abram Woyds I'm on 427 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,879 Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa Abram woits one before the podcast, you 428 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,439 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio