WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance: Citi's Steve Wieting

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio.

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<v Speaker 2>News, leaving behind a February full of tech fueld stock

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<v Speaker 2>market records. Steve wideger City expected the broader market to

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<v Speaker 2>close the gap on big tech, saying this the extreme

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<v Speaker 2>divergence of large cap tech profits from other industries should

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<v Speaker 2>diminish this year and next. We would not be surprised

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<v Speaker 2>if MAC seven EPs gains in twenty twenty four were

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<v Speaker 2>cut in half on strong investment spending and greater competition.

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<v Speaker 2>Steve joins us now and Steve, that's a lot to

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<v Speaker 2>get through. Can we build on that just a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit more where you're expecting some of that gap.

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<v Speaker 3>All if cutting half means twenty to twenty five percent

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<v Speaker 3>EPs gains, that's still still substantial growth. You know, industries

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<v Speaker 3>that are literally booming, and there's probably a very limited

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<v Speaker 3>number that are doing that booms you worry about on

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<v Speaker 3>the other side of those those sorts of things. But

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<v Speaker 3>they're not going from large gains to declines. They're going

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<v Speaker 3>to a bit of a slowdown. And you know, again

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<v Speaker 3>look at mag seven, probably four companies that are buying

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<v Speaker 3>up every microchip that they possibly can to offer AI services.

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<v Speaker 3>Now as an open question, as to whether these services

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<v Speaker 3>again are going to find demand in the economy from

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<v Speaker 3>just about everywhere that they're not going to compete with

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<v Speaker 3>each other and they're really going to all be able

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<v Speaker 3>to boom together, or will they compete and they will

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<v Speaker 3>narrow down profits. I think again, we're not willing to

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<v Speaker 3>give up diversification in portfolios right to just bet on

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<v Speaker 3>that single trend. And so again, a lot of other

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<v Speaker 3>good things are happening in the economy. We're raising our

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<v Speaker 3>economic forecasts, raising s and p EPs forecasts, and seeing

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<v Speaker 3>industries that have been weak for the last year and

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<v Speaker 3>a half bottom out and begin a recovery. They won't

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<v Speaker 3>do as well as mag seven in terms of EPs gains,

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<v Speaker 3>but hey, they're at a very different valuation.

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<v Speaker 2>You clearly ombearrass your SOI equities small midcaps. Tell to

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<v Speaker 2>us about the industries you like right now?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, again, you can get mid cap growth companies in

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<v Speaker 3>the United States for about the valuation as European shares only.

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<v Speaker 3>The US midcaps have grown at about eleven percent and

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<v Speaker 3>Europe has grown at about two I think we increasingly

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<v Speaker 3>want to swerve towards healthcare, something that's been out of

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<v Speaker 3>favor with the exception of GOP drugs, equipment makers have

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<v Speaker 3>had an historic growth rate of nine percent, dibiting growth

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<v Speaker 3>for three decades. They're trading fifteen percent off of their highs,

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<v Speaker 3>and again, a lot of people thinking that we'll never

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<v Speaker 3>do anything in healthcare except lose weight, which I wish

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<v Speaker 3>I could.

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<v Speaker 1>I will say that a lot of people are working

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<v Speaker 1>on that. I'm curious about the idea that everyone seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be shifting to. This idea that earnings are coming

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<v Speaker 1>better than expected, the US economy is more stronger than expected,

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<v Speaker 1>fiscal keeps on supporting everybody for the foreseeable future. So

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<v Speaker 1>why is it that CAST funds are on pace for

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<v Speaker 1>another year of record inflows. People are talking about cast

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<v Speaker 1>is trust. I don't think so. People love their CAST

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<v Speaker 1>funds and they're plowing more and money into them.

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<v Speaker 3>So look, the reason why we're not more overweight equities

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<v Speaker 3>is a great competition from yield, and so we want

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<v Speaker 3>to participate that our bond portfolios have a little bit

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<v Speaker 3>below average duration. We expect again to earn that longer

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<v Speaker 3>than the FED. We'll stay at five and a half percent.

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<v Speaker 3>But this is good competition. And look, we've been bullish

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<v Speaker 3>for a while. We have seen increasing bullishness. We see

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<v Speaker 3>new shorts being said in the equity market. Everybody is

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<v Speaker 3>bearish in the bond market and extremely short the bond market.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that there are some areas which have been

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<v Speaker 3>so strong that we want to just start the ease

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<v Speaker 3>back from them. When you've had eighty percent returns in software,

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<v Speaker 3>for example, you know it's just is time again to

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<v Speaker 3>just start to shift to some of the other areas.

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<v Speaker 3>But there's room for both stocks and bonds and portfolios

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<v Speaker 3>right now.

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<v Speaker 1>This doesn't sound like a market that's been drained of liquidity.

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<v Speaker 1>It sounds like an economy that is flush with liquidity.

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<v Speaker 1>Why has the Fed been so ineffective at draining this

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<v Speaker 1>market of liquidity?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, again, do you have do must we have a

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<v Speaker 3>new recession again to stop this rapid inflation. I think

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<v Speaker 3>we have another troubling inflation report that's going to come

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<v Speaker 3>for in March. For the month of February, it's going

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<v Speaker 3>to be another reason for everyone to again say, well,

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<v Speaker 3>wait a second, maybe we're not on this disinflation trend.

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<v Speaker 3>Maybe we're going to be stuck here with the FED

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<v Speaker 3>doing qt in five and a half percent, funds that's

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<v Speaker 3>possible over the short term. But the reality is the

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<v Speaker 3>good news has been we've been able again to supply

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<v Speaker 3>and demand to line up a lot more in a

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<v Speaker 3>more in a stable way without a massive surgeon unemployment. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>if we get too excited about that, there's going to

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<v Speaker 3>be some problems.

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<v Speaker 2>Eve upgraded growth. What do you say, what you like?

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<v Speaker 2>What's leading to that?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think again it's weaker pieces of the economy.

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<v Speaker 3>We've had a hidden recession underneath the surface. If you're

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<v Speaker 3>looking at Germany, if you're looking at Japan, if you're

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<v Speaker 3>looking at China, if you're looking at manufacturing in the US,

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<v Speaker 3>which is nobody would really look at. But the reality

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<v Speaker 3>is it's contracted for the year behind US trade contracted

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<v Speaker 3>eight percent in the year through the third quarter of

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<v Speaker 3>last year. And these weaker components again are moving into

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<v Speaker 3>a more stable growing place, probably not going to be

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<v Speaker 3>anything V shaped, but it's those things, along with large

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<v Speaker 3>cap tech with AI which is.

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<v Speaker 1>In the boom.

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<v Speaker 2>There's been a big spread between manufacturing and services for

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<v Speaker 2>quite a while. As you've been indicated, over the last

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<v Speaker 2>year two years, manufacturing started to come up to services.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that how you expect that story to complete.

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<v Speaker 3>But remember it will come off a very different labor

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<v Speaker 3>market outcome. Services labor intensive, manufacturing automated, right, So the

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<v Speaker 3>head count differences are going to be really, really substantial.

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<v Speaker 3>The services industries can't keep adding two hundred thousand jobs

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<v Speaker 3>per month just in those industries, right. So you've seen

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<v Speaker 3>having an employment growth from where we were two years

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<v Speaker 3>ago when services just turn right back on like a

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<v Speaker 3>light switch again. Hospitality, airlines, travel, all of these things

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<v Speaker 3>incredibly labor intensive, and we had massive job losses there

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<v Speaker 3>to recover. But now we're at the point where I

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<v Speaker 3>think it'll slow down, and that didn't in the month

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<v Speaker 3>of January. It was three hundred and fifty three thousand

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<v Speaker 3>jobs in January, but we saw seasonal distortions and employment inflation,

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<v Speaker 3>retail sales, all of these things in different directions. It's

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<v Speaker 3>going to take a while from the market to sort

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<v Speaker 3>it out. I think we'll be a little more worried

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<v Speaker 3>before before we start to really come to grips again.

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<v Speaker 1>John mentioned your upgrade of us GDP.

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<v Speaker 3>Muhammad Alarian recently in Projects Indicate was talking about what

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<v Speaker 3>happens in the United States matters to the rest of

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<v Speaker 3>the role doesn't.

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<v Speaker 2>Stay in the United States.

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<v Speaker 3>Do you foresee then US growth if you see it

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<v Speaker 3>picking up helping the rest of the world. It is,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's challenging at the same time because again, the

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<v Speaker 3>amount of time that we spend with restrictive monetary policy

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<v Speaker 3>is still going to be a bit longer. We haven't

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<v Speaker 3>changed our mid year estimate really, but again confidence that

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to have easing, the communication of easing through markets, right,

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<v Speaker 3>we could set that backs up. So the dollar has

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<v Speaker 3>been stronger now that both helps and that hurts. Yields

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<v Speaker 3>have risen this year right at the long end of

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<v Speaker 3>the curve and across most of the curve. So those

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<v Speaker 3>are modest challenges while some of the things are really helping.

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<v Speaker 3>Consumer demand is not collapsed, and producers have been underwhelming

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<v Speaker 3>and they've been really short in terms of meeting demand.

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<v Speaker 2>Is going to say it always going to catch up,

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you, sir, Steve. Wanting to if SITSI