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Speaker 2: All right, welcome to hoops tonight here at the volume
Speaker 2: heavy Friday. Everybody, hope all if you guys are having
Speaker 2: an incredible week. It is time to start prepping for
Speaker 2: Timberwolves Nuggets. And I could think of nobody better than
Speaker 2: my friend Adam Morrez, who works it covers the Nuggets
Speaker 2: as well as the rest of the league through the
Speaker 2: All NBA podcast as well as through DNBR. Just a
Speaker 2: basketball mind that I have a ton of respect for
Speaker 2: Super Super Lucky to have him on the show today,
Speaker 2: and I'm excited to get into a bunch of stuff Adam.
Speaker 2: I want to start with the Lakers series though, because
Speaker 2: a really interesting thing happened to me as a fan.
Speaker 2: That's the one team that I have a little bit
Speaker 2: of a fan rooting interest in, you know, going into
Speaker 2: that series, I did not think they had a real chance.
Speaker 2: Like there was always like that tiny little chance, you know,
Speaker 2: like the if things break right and everybody plays out
Speaker 2: of their mind, you have that chance. But like I
Speaker 2: never really believed, and I didn't believe in Game one,
Speaker 2: didn't believe in Game two when they were up twenty,
Speaker 2: didn't believe in Game three when they led at the half,
Speaker 2: didn't believe in Game four when they won. But there
Speaker 2: was a brief moment in Game five. I wouldn't have
Speaker 2: picked the Lakers, just because it's really difficult to beat
Speaker 2: a good team four times in a row under any
Speaker 2: circums dances, let alone when they have the best player
Speaker 2: of the world and they're the defending champ. But there
Speaker 2: was a brief moment in game five where I felt
Speaker 2: like the Lakers were starting to gain some ground mentally
Speaker 2: and physically. They started to feel more confident in the matchup,
Speaker 2: and they had kind of figured out what their advantages were.
Speaker 2: And obviously through the KCP ankle injury in Jamal Murray's calf,
Speaker 2: it just felt like the Lakers were starting to gain
Speaker 2: some ground, and I thought that they went from having
Speaker 2: a tiny chance to like an actually acknowledgable chance. So
Speaker 2: am I just being a crazy fan or did you
Speaker 2: feel a similar type of trend over the course of
Speaker 2: that series, and again not saying the Lakers would have won,
Speaker 2: but went from very unlikely to at least having some
Speaker 2: sort of opportunity there.
Speaker 1: Well, I think what you're hinting at here is Denver
Speaker 1: didn't look good. And I think the one thing that
Speaker 1: we always have to remember in the series is that
Speaker 1: there's always one team that's more urgent. Denver never felt
Speaker 1: urgency in the series, outside of maybe the second half
Speaker 1: of Game two, when I think they let the game
Speaker 1: get a little too far out of hand and then
Speaker 1: by the skin of their team made it back. But
Speaker 1: in Game five, I just thought Denver and it really
Speaker 1: through the whole series, I thought Denver took the Lakers
Speaker 1: very lightly. They seemed bored with the series, and I
Speaker 1: think the team.
Speaker 3: You know, projected that.
Speaker 1: I'll say, I don't think anybody on the record came
Speaker 1: out and said, Hey, I think that this is a
Speaker 1: series that Denver had a hard time getting through. But
Speaker 1: that was the sense I got So if they lost
Speaker 1: that game and you have to go on the road
Speaker 1: back to Los Angeles, does that mean they would muster
Speaker 1: up the energy like Okay, let's all lean forward now,
Speaker 1: let's get into it. Or is that one that maybe
Speaker 1: would have taken the wind out of the sale.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 1: What I will say is that I thought Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: was very comfortable scoring on Yokic in that series. Jokic
Speaker 1: never really solved that, and then Jamal Murray was banged up,
Speaker 1: clearly did not play well in any of the games
Speaker 1: in the series save for the fourth quarters of Games
Speaker 1: two in Game five, So I think you look at
Speaker 1: that and it's easy for me to say I think
Speaker 1: the Nuggets had another gear that they have not tapped into,
Speaker 1: and that'll be a storyline as we move on to
Speaker 1: the next series. But at the same time, Denver looked tired,
Speaker 1: Murray looked banged up, and I think they were very
Speaker 1: happy to get that series done when they did.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I said the same thing after Game four.
Speaker 2: I was like, Denver has not had urgency, meaning like
Speaker 2: they were I felt like they were approaching the series
Speaker 2: with a certain level of professionalism, like they were given
Speaker 2: their eighty five ninety percent effort. But again, when you
Speaker 2: beat a team that many times in a row, it's
Speaker 2: impossible to feel threatened. And there's also no way to
Speaker 2: replicate like true urgency, which I look at it like
Speaker 2: an actual fear of losing. Right. That was what was
Speaker 2: interesting to me about Game five though, is like it
Speaker 2: felt like a game the Nuggets kind of needed, but
Speaker 2: the Lakers were able to kind of remain competitive throughout
Speaker 2: at the end of the day. Though, like I thought,
Speaker 2: there was one specific thing that prevented me from ever
Speaker 2: really believing the Lakers had a real chance, and it
Speaker 2: had to do with perimeter defense, which I think is
Speaker 2: going to be interesting as we get into the Timberwolve series.
Speaker 2: But during the regular season, the Lakers had like a
Speaker 2: one to ninety four I think defensive rating and the
Speaker 2: clutch against Denver, they were scoring like every time down
Speaker 2: the floor, and then Game two k around and they
Speaker 2: scored on eight of their final nine possessions, right, and
Speaker 2: like then we get into Game five and once again
Speaker 2: it was like at the end of the game, it
Speaker 2: was like another Jamal Murray driving layup in pick and roll,
Speaker 2: another pull up jumper to win the game. Obviously he
Speaker 2: hit three on an offensive rebound, put back or offensive
Speaker 2: rebound at the end of the game too. To me,
Speaker 2: it really came down to the Lakers never had a
Speaker 2: guy who could guard Jamal well, Like I think Austin
Speaker 2: did his job within the game plan, but he just
Speaker 2: didn't have the physical tools necessary to really make Jamal uncomfortable.
Speaker 2: And then the matchup that killed us all series was
Speaker 2: that Michael Porter Junior matchup. And again, part of that's
Speaker 2: roster construction, Like when you roll out two forwards at
Speaker 2: the three and four that can't navigate screens, you're gonna
Speaker 2: run into issues with MPJ kind of running off of screens.
Speaker 2: It wasn't just Ruey either, Lebron lost him a few
Speaker 2: times in the series as well. But like that, that
Speaker 2: to me, was where that matchup went south for the Lakers. Ironically,
Speaker 2: when we go into the next round, like I viewed Denver,
Speaker 2: I view Minnesota as a much tougher defensive matchup for Denver,
Speaker 2: but a much easier offensive matchup. I think some of
Speaker 2: the damage that the Lakers did to the Nuggets in
Speaker 2: the paint had a lot to do with not just
Speaker 2: Lebron and Ad as rollers, but their IQ and read
Speaker 2: and reactability on that back line. Like, I just don't
Speaker 2: think you're gonna get that from Go Bear in Towns
Speaker 2: in this series, and so did you kind of like
Speaker 2: get a similar sense where like some of the unique
Speaker 2: ability of Lebron and Ad as a front court duo
Speaker 2: caused some problems for Denver that other teams in the
Speaker 2: league just can't.
Speaker 1: There's no question, and the team themselves reiterated that after
Speaker 1: the series. I mean, Jamal Murray, I don't know if
Speaker 1: you saw his postgame presser after a Game five, he
Speaker 1: was as impressed with Lebron as I was. He talked
Speaker 1: about how he was one of his favorite players growing up,
Speaker 1: and then he just kept saying he makes you think
Speaker 1: every playing well, you're out there, you're just constantly having
Speaker 1: to think through And look, they were a seven seed,
Speaker 1: was flawed. It wasn't like they were a phenomenal all
Speaker 1: around team. But I just think there's a reason Lebron
Speaker 1: has only lost what eleven playoff series or something in
Speaker 1: his entire career.
Speaker 3: He's got eighty and eleven or something. All the time.
Speaker 1: He's so good in the playoffs, and even with that
Speaker 1: roster he just put so much pressure on you, and
Speaker 1: then Anthony Davis had his jump shot going. I think
Speaker 1: he was very confident against Jokich. I it's funny because
Speaker 1: Yokic's numbers are tremendous. I thought he did a great
Speaker 1: job against Jokich, one of the best jobs we've seen,
Speaker 1: you know, on both ends, putting pressure on him on
Speaker 1: offense and then defensively. Obviously they did that quick double,
Speaker 1: but in the moments when he was one on one,
Speaker 1: he made life difficult on Jokich. So I one hundred
Speaker 1: percent agree that. I think those two guys did a
Speaker 1: great job. I think the Lakers are better than people
Speaker 1: probably will give them credit for. And just like last year,
Speaker 1: the series was probably closer than the five games would
Speaker 1: would indicate. But at the same time, Denver has been
Speaker 1: doing this now for two years with this core five
Speaker 1: and for seven years with that core too. Murray and Jokic,
Speaker 1: they have so many reps it's hard to it's hard
Speaker 1: I think for people to their heads around how many
Speaker 1: reps that unit has together, how they've seen everything, and
Speaker 1: both game winners, Jason came with no timeout. It's no
Speaker 1: small detail. And then if you look at all the
Speaker 1: details in those plays, all the little things guys did
Speaker 1: where they got under the court. That was a team
Speaker 1: that if you called a timeout. Most teams, if you
Speaker 1: call it time out and draw up that exact action,
Speaker 1: they would not be able to execute it with these
Speaker 1: subtleties that Denver did, and they did that with no timeout,
Speaker 1: and that's what makes them special. So when they win
Speaker 1: all these games. Close to me, there's a level of
Speaker 1: luck involved. Naturally, it's just math, you know, short ten
Speaker 1: possessions is not that many, so ball bounces your way.
Speaker 1: It makes a huge difference. But there's something to Denver
Speaker 1: that I say, it's not all luck and it's not
Speaker 1: all variants. That team just does every detail right in
Speaker 1: those moments, and it's why they're the best clutch team.
Speaker 2: Yeah, when you brought up the seven years, I immediately
Speaker 2: thought about Malone's comments after Game five, like trust the
Speaker 2: best two man game in the league, Like because it's
Speaker 2: just a certain level of like it almost is instinctual
Speaker 2: for the two of them after all this time, and
Speaker 2: like last note on the Lakers before we move on,
Speaker 2: like there's gonna be a lot of moments at their
Speaker 2: expanse first round exit. They both of them talked about
Speaker 2: how they wanted Denver again. One thing I'll say, though,
Speaker 2: I think Lebron and Ad put their money where their
Speaker 2: mouth was. Like a Jokic kicked AD's ass last year,
Speaker 2: and Jamal soundly out played Lebron. I thought Ad closed
Speaker 2: the gap a little bit. Obviously didn't surpass him, but
Speaker 2: he could closed the gap a little bit. And I
Speaker 2: thought Lebron, actually, outside of the clutch shooting, was a
Speaker 2: better player in this series than Jamal Murray. So like
Speaker 2: shout out to them, but like at the end of
Speaker 2: the day, it actually just shined a giant light on
Speaker 2: the chasm between the down the roster competence, and like again,
Speaker 2: like I think it's actually fascinating that the Lakers went
Speaker 2: about a bizarre roster build with two skill guards and
Speaker 2: two big forwards instead of having a natural two and
Speaker 2: a natural three. And who were the two guys who
Speaker 2: let them down in the biggest way in the series.
Speaker 2: It was the second skill guard and the second big forward,
Speaker 2: Ruey and d Lo, And I thought that was fascinating.
Speaker 2: So like, in a weird way, it was like I
Speaker 2: was proud of the Lakers. I was proud of Lebron
Speaker 2: and Ad but it was like very revealing as to
Speaker 2: why there's a gap between these two teams and what
Speaker 2: they need to address moving forward. So looking at Wolves Nuggets,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna read through some quick numbers before we get
Speaker 2: into the weeds here. So season series was two two.
Speaker 2: The only time all ten starters played was way back
Speaker 2: in early November, like I think it was November one,
Speaker 2: So we're talking about that just feels like an eon ago.
Speaker 2: Denver won the most recent game all the starters played
Speaker 2: except for Kat and Jamal Murray was on a minutes
Speaker 2: restriction in that game. I think he only played like
Speaker 2: twenty six minutes and that was the game. If you
Speaker 2: remember where they went without Jamal in those like early
Speaker 2: second quarter early fourth quarter units that he usually leads,
Speaker 2: and just really good basketball for Peyton Watson and Aaron
Speaker 2: Gordon as they just kind of manufactured buckets and kind
Speaker 2: of won in a classic Denver fashion. It was competitive
Speaker 2: and then Denver pulled away late. The metrics for the
Speaker 2: whole season, in all four games, the Nuggets had a
Speaker 2: one nine point one offensive rating. The Wolves had a
Speaker 2: one fourteen point nine, although they had some blowout wins
Speaker 2: in games where Jamal Murray didn't play. Denver dominated the
Speaker 2: rebounding battle. They grabbed fifty four point two percent of
Speaker 2: available rebounds. They also rebounded thirty three percent of their
Speaker 2: own misses. I think that's fascinating because Minnesota destroyed Phoenix
Speaker 2: on the glass. That was a huge part of that series.
Speaker 2: They grabbed forty percent of their own misses in that series,
Speaker 2: So I think that's gonna be interesting. Denver one points
Speaker 2: in the paint in the season series two sixteen to
Speaker 2: one eighty six. Denver won second chance points fifty six
Speaker 2: to forty six. Minnesota won fast break points fifty six
Speaker 2: to forty seven, and big one here one points off
Speaker 2: a turnovers seventy five to fifty. I think that's gonna
Speaker 2: be a huge A narrative in this series is just
Speaker 2: how well Denver can take care of the basketball and
Speaker 2: on the gambling side of things. According to DraftKings, the
Speaker 2: Nuggets are currently a minus two to zero five favor
Speaker 2: That's pretty substantial, so Vegas views Denver as the better team.
Speaker 2: So let's start with Denver on offense, and as I
Speaker 2: mentioned at the start of the show, to me, the
Speaker 2: main difference in this series is the giant gap in
Speaker 2: perimeter defense talent, Like, I think we're gonna see Ada
Speaker 2: McDaniels on Jamal and and on Michael Porter Junior for
Speaker 2: a good chunk of the series, and I think that
Speaker 2: is just going to be a substantially larger challenge for
Speaker 2: those two guys than what the Lakers brought to the table.
Speaker 2: So what do you see in this series with Denver
Speaker 2: on offense? How do you think their approach will be
Speaker 2: different compared to the Lakers series.
Speaker 3: I think the whole thing will be different.
Speaker 1: I mean, the Lakers actually dictated Denver's offense in a
Speaker 1: unique way in the last round, and that they quit
Speaker 1: double Jokic every time he's in the post, and that's
Speaker 1: such a compromising defense to play, to say, we're just
Speaker 1: gonna send two guys at him and then just scramble
Speaker 1: every possession we're going to be in rotation. I don't
Speaker 1: think Minnesota will do that. I think they're going to
Speaker 1: trust that Rudy Gobert has that so we don't need
Speaker 1: to double. He'sier rim protector. And that'll be an interesting
Speaker 1: one because it'll come down a lot too. How well
Speaker 1: does Jokic score on Karl Anthony Towns with that you know,
Speaker 1: spy defense from Rudy Gobert. That'll be a big one.
Speaker 1: I think Jokic will do very well in that, and
Speaker 1: I actually think Denver, starting last year with the Rudy
Speaker 1: Ruey adjustment, Denver has seen every team try some form
Speaker 1: of that ring your rim protector on Aaron Gordon and
Speaker 1: just bring him over to try to block shots. Denver
Speaker 1: has a lot of experience and I think they'll be successful.
Speaker 1: Where I think they'll struggle is with the pick and roll,
Speaker 1: which is obviously the bread and butter of Denver's offense.
Speaker 1: Nikil Alexander Walker and Jaden McDaniels, in my opinion, are
Speaker 1: two of the absolute best in the league at not
Speaker 1: getting screened on screens. They're so hard to run pick
Speaker 1: and roll game because they're so skinny. They get so
Speaker 1: into you and then that screen just becomes non existent.
Speaker 1: And even if you do screen them, they're both don't
Speaker 1: quit on the play, try to contest from behind and
Speaker 1: can have success with that. Murray historically has been great
Speaker 1: at punishing guys that are trying to, you know, play
Speaker 1: from behind, top locker challenge from behind. He's so good at,
Speaker 1: you know, his glitchy little moves and creating separation there
Speaker 1: and putting the defense making them guess. But in the
Speaker 1: first round he didn't do that. And I don't know
Speaker 1: if he didn't do that because of all the injuries
Speaker 1: or what it is. But if Murray is able to
Speaker 1: play the game that I think that he has played
Speaker 1: in years past in the playoff, I think he can
Speaker 1: score on Jaden McDaniels, as good of a defender as
Speaker 1: he is, And I think Denver can compromise Minnesota's defense
Speaker 1: in a way less so than most teams, but still
Speaker 1: in a way that makes them successful. But if he can't,
Speaker 1: then there's so many downstream effects of that, that pick
Speaker 1: and roll loses a lot of its bite, and so
Speaker 1: much of what Denver does is downstream of that initial
Speaker 1: pick and roll action. So to me, I think we're
Speaker 1: gonna know very early in this series how healthy is
Speaker 1: Murray and how how effective is the Yokich Murray pick
Speaker 1: and roll when those two guys are guarding.
Speaker 2: I think that's part of why winning Game five was
Speaker 2: so important, to buy that extra couple of days off.
Speaker 2: That was that was that was I viewed that as
Speaker 2: such a must win for Denver, and I can't say enough,
Speaker 2: Jamal got credit for the clutch shots, but I thought
Speaker 2: he was awesome at the beginning of that game too,
Speaker 2: to kind of put him away or to kind of
Speaker 2: keep him close, and like again, like having having that
Speaker 2: Jayden matchup, you want every bit of physical pop that
Speaker 2: Jamal Murray has. Starting with Jokic, I agree with you.
Speaker 2: I think is gonna have to score a lot in
Speaker 2: this series. Again, Minnesota in general, as a matter of
Speaker 2: I identity, doesn't like to double or defend pick and
Speaker 2: rolls three on two. They try to stay home as
Speaker 2: much as possible. As matter of fact, they were fourth
Speaker 2: in opponent assists per one hundred possessions in the regular
Speaker 2: season in second so far in the postseason. That was
Speaker 2: a big part. Now, Phoenix, I thought missed a lot
Speaker 2: of reads. I think there are opportunities there. Excuse me
Speaker 2: that Denver will capitalize on to a much higher level
Speaker 2: than Phoenix did, just because Yokic is so much, so
Speaker 2: much better at identifying those openings than Katie, Devin Booker
Speaker 2: and Bradley Beal were. But I do think that's gonna
Speaker 2: be a big part of it. I went back and
Speaker 2: I watched every single shot attempt that Jokic took over
Speaker 2: the course of the regular season against Minnesota, KYLEI Anderson
Speaker 2: and Nasrid. It's just a layup. They just can't They
Speaker 2: literally can't stop Yokic at all. It kind of reminds
Speaker 2: me of the Ruy Hatcha Mura matchup. It's just like
Speaker 2: anytime you left him on an island, it was a
Speaker 2: bucket every time. He's too big for go bear, and
Speaker 2: he's good at like getting Rudy to jump to a
Speaker 2: specific angle so that he can pivot around him and
Speaker 2: get all the way to the rim. Kat's the one
Speaker 2: guy I've seen that actually can kind of like hold
Speaker 2: his ground a little bit and make him shoot over
Speaker 2: the top. But I didn't think Jokic looked really bothered
Speaker 2: by Kat either in the in the matchups that I watched,
Speaker 2: So like, I think that that's gonna be a huge
Speaker 2: part of this series, is Minnesota trying to tie your
Speaker 2: Yokic out by making him a score. And I think
Speaker 2: that's gonna be their kind of like game plan in
Speaker 2: this sense. On the ball screens. One of the things
Speaker 2: I thought was interesting with Jada McDaniels on Jamal Murray
Speaker 2: a couple things. First of all screening is gonna be huge,
Speaker 2: Like the quality of screens that they set, not just
Speaker 2: with Jokic, but when they set like staggered screens where
Speaker 2: they have. One of the things they had some success,
Speaker 2: some success with to get McDaniels off of Jamal was
Speaker 2: like three man actions basically like having a a KCP
Speaker 2: or Michael Porter Junior set the screen before Jamal runs
Speaker 2: into Jokic. They can get some success slipping out of
Speaker 2: that too with whoever the other guard is. But like
Speaker 2: one of the things I noticed when Jayden was on
Speaker 2: Jamal Murray, Murray seemed very cognizant of the back pressure
Speaker 2: and much more willing to get downhill and take floaters.
Speaker 2: That was a big one I noticed. And then two,
Speaker 2: he was much more active as a passer in the
Speaker 2: season series because of that Jada McDaniel's matchup. As a
Speaker 2: matter of fact, he averaged eight assist per game in
Speaker 2: only thirty one minutes per game against Minnesota, So like
Speaker 2: I do think that's going to be a big part
Speaker 2: of it. He also hunted a lot more threes. That
Speaker 2: was something he looked to do instead of trying to
Speaker 2: get downhill where that where that back pressure could be
Speaker 2: an issue. He would drag out more side to side
Speaker 2: and look to take more three point shots, and by
Speaker 2: the way, he shot really well from three in the matchup.
Speaker 2: I think another part of it, too, is just trying
Speaker 2: to keep Conley involved in the action as much as possible.
Speaker 2: He's just their weakest link defensively, and he gives you
Speaker 2: the best opportunity to try to try to find like
Speaker 2: those slip cuts and things like that. They did have
Speaker 2: some success with that in the regular season. But the
Speaker 2: biggest one I think that I put in my notes
Speaker 2: was getting out in transition as much as possible, just
Speaker 2: like as many times as you can over the course
Speaker 2: of the game, avoiding that half court set where they
Speaker 2: can load up and bring that physicality where that can
Speaker 2: be a problem. But again, I think this is going
Speaker 2: to be the toughest part of the series for Denver.
Speaker 2: When we get over to Minnesota on offense, I think
Speaker 2: Denver's in for a much easier type of matchup than
Speaker 2: what they dealt with with the Lakers. I think that
Speaker 2: really is going to be the series, in my opinion,
Speaker 2: is can Denver slow down Minnesota more than Minnesota slows
Speaker 2: down Denver?
Speaker 1: And these two things are connected because I love that
Speaker 1: you brought up. Both of the points you just brought
Speaker 1: up with Denver, I think are sort of the same point.
Speaker 1: One the off ball screening to free up Murray from
Speaker 1: McDaniel's just to create switches. That's big, as is Denver
Speaker 1: in transition. If you get stops and you get the
Speaker 1: other way, you can create you know, cross matches, And
Speaker 1: that's going to be especially important because I think Minnesota
Speaker 1: is designed to stop Denver when they have their main guys,
Speaker 1: and I would throw Nikhil Alexander Walker in there. He's
Speaker 1: interchangeable in some ways because of what he can do
Speaker 1: defensively as well. But with their guys and with the
Speaker 1: right matchups. But if you get a cross match with
Speaker 1: Rudy Gobergarding Jokich and it's Denver starters out there all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, now they're out of sorts of thing.
Speaker 1: Now Karl Anthony Towns is on Aaron Gordon, He's the
Speaker 1: weak side guy. If McDaniel says' on him and you
Speaker 1: get Mike Conley. Now Mike Conley is having to guard
Speaker 1: Murray through screens and from behind, and Murray is just
Speaker 1: so comfortable when you put a smaller guy on him.
Speaker 1: He's one of the best guards in the NBA at
Speaker 1: playing big and playing through that. So I think it
Speaker 1: is transition and how Denver generates generate switches in the
Speaker 1: half court is going to be a big part of
Speaker 1: the series because the base defense from Minnesota is as
Speaker 1: good as the NBA has at guarding Denver, but as
Speaker 1: soon as you start to mix those pieces around, they
Speaker 1: lose it.
Speaker 2: And they're just good at that. And that's that's why
Speaker 2: I feel more confident in Denver in this matchup, like
Speaker 2: in the sense that, like Phoenix, I was so frustrated
Speaker 2: watching film in that series at their process and how
Speaker 2: many like simple basic basketball reads they missed to generate
Speaker 2: closeout opportunities, and I just know Denver is going to
Speaker 2: be so much more deliberate about that. And for instance too,
Speaker 2: like I think one of the things they can look
Speaker 2: to do is when Kat is on Yokid, which run
Speaker 2: more screening actions for Jokic to have him catch on
Speaker 2: the move where Kat's either in a trail position or
Speaker 2: he's getting caught on a screen where he can come
Speaker 2: downhill at go Bear. They had a lot of success
Speaker 2: with that in the regular season and Honestly, one of
Speaker 2: the things that kind of think that I think kind
Speaker 2: of helps prep Jokic for this matchup is the time
Speaker 2: that Murray missed this season in these matchups where Jokic
Speaker 2: had to be really active as a scorer, and he
Speaker 2: got a really good look at that specifically. So moving
Speaker 2: on to Minnesota on offense, So let's just let's start here.
Speaker 2: Do you I think we're gonna see KCP start on Ant,
Speaker 2: But do you think there are any alternative looks that
Speaker 2: Denver can go with? Because Anthony Edwards is going to be,
Speaker 2: to me, the entire, like the entire swing factor of
Speaker 2: this series because the player he was in the regular
Speaker 2: season was somewhere in the you know, ten to fifteenth
Speaker 2: best player in the world, regardless of how you feel
Speaker 2: about Ant in his future and potential blah blah blah whatever.
Speaker 2: He played like a bona fide top tier MVP superstar
Speaker 2: against Phoenix, and if he brings that into this round,
Speaker 2: that change fundamentally changes this type of matchup, Right, So, like,
Speaker 2: let's just start with AUNT. How do you think Denver
Speaker 2: is going to confront the ANT problem?
Speaker 1: Well, I think you're right that they're almost certainly going
Speaker 1: to try and hope KCP is the answer there, and
Speaker 1: because there's trickle down effects from that matchup, which allows
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon to guard Karl Anthony Towns, which allows Aaron
Speaker 1: Gordon to probably stagger more and play backup center, which
Speaker 1: is what Denver wants. If that doesn't work and you're
Speaker 1: forced to bring Aaron Gordon over to guard Anthony Edwards,
Speaker 1: there's a bunch of other decisions you have to make
Speaker 1: behind that then to make up for the rotation. But
Speaker 1: there are two guys on Denver's roster that I think
Speaker 1: become the swing factor in this series, and that's Christian Brown,
Speaker 1: Payton Watson. They were acquired for matchups like this one,
Speaker 1: not necessarily Anthony Edwards specifically, but they were required. Calvin
Speaker 1: Booth stated philosophy was we already had the offensive part
Speaker 1: down and probably have it for years to come with
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray, Niko jokicch and then you know, you can
Speaker 1: find a Michael Porter, you can find a KCP, you
Speaker 1: can find Aaron Gordon. They happen to have all three,
Speaker 1: which is great, but you can find guys that can
Speaker 1: space the floor in the ways that they do.
Speaker 3: Now you just need.
Speaker 1: Length and defense, because you need in a playoff series
Speaker 1: to be able to give a guy multiple looks. We
Speaker 1: just said Nikil Alexander Walker, he can give Jaden McDaniels
Speaker 1: a break every now and then, so that you have
Speaker 1: a well energized defender on Murray for forty eight minutes
Speaker 1: to the game. The same has to be true for
Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards and that means that Christian Brown and Peyton
Speaker 1: Watson are going to have to be effective. And if
Speaker 1: you told me right now, I think both of them
Speaker 1: are capable of being effective against him. I know Minnesota
Speaker 1: fans will laugh at that. These guys are really good
Speaker 1: young defenders, but it's also possible that they are not
Speaker 1: effective on him because Anthony Edwards is, to your point,
Speaker 1: at MVP level player, at least he was in the
Speaker 1: first round. So I don't think those guys can stop him.
Speaker 1: But can they play eight minutes a game collectively on
Speaker 1: him so that KCP is you know, is able to
Speaker 1: play a little bit more aggressively. CASEP is so good
Speaker 1: with his hands, like Anthony Edwards is going to be
Speaker 1: able to body him and bully him on straight line drives,
Speaker 1: close outs and those types of things. But CACP is
Speaker 1: so good at forcing you to take bad angles, and
Speaker 1: the moment you try, Anthony Edwards has a new move.
Speaker 1: I'm sure you've observed it where he uses the extra
Speaker 1: step so you have a pivot foot and he'll pivot
Speaker 1: and then leave his pivot foot and jump and finish.
Speaker 1: And Jalen Brunson does this, Shay Gil just Alexander does this.
Speaker 1: That's a heck of a move for a guy that
Speaker 1: has his physical tools. But the one thing about that
Speaker 1: move is you're off balance when you go to that
Speaker 1: extra step, just for a second before you can elevate,
Speaker 1: like you think about a player, they have to almost
Speaker 1: dip into it. CACP might be the best in the
Speaker 1: NBA at stealing the ball when players do that. Anytime
Speaker 1: you try to take that extra step. His hands are
Speaker 1: so quick. So I think it'll be a good matchup.
Speaker 1: But Christian Brown, to answer your question, Christian Brown, Payton
Speaker 1: Watson our X factors because if they are a zero
Speaker 1: impact on him, Denver's in a world of trouble. If
Speaker 1: they can make a mild to medium impact on him,
Speaker 1: I think Denver's odds go up quite a bit.
Speaker 2: That long step you're talking about I'm pretty sure he
Speaker 2: learned that from Kylie Anderson. I think that might be
Speaker 2: the guy. I think you might have spent some time
Speaker 2: in the lab together figuring that out. And like, I
Speaker 2: love the point you made about the straight line drives
Speaker 2: and close outs. Like when I watched tape on this matchup,
Speaker 2: I hate KCP on ant and any sort of one
Speaker 2: on one situation, but I love it in ball screens
Speaker 2: where it's like more about screen navigation, back pressure, attacking
Speaker 2: the shooting pocket, things along those lines, and you know
Speaker 2: the alternative look I looked at. There was a post
Speaker 2: up we saw a KCP do a pretty solid job
Speaker 2: on Lebron James, at least until Lebron started trying to
Speaker 2: go to the post consistently. But like Kat is just
Speaker 2: not the type of post threat that Lebron James is.
Speaker 2: He's just not. And there was a play that I
Speaker 2: saw on tape where Kat tried to post up KCP
Speaker 2: and he cleanly stripped him on that kind of like
Speaker 2: he's just really good at like as soon as anybody
Speaker 2: goes to their drop step to get to their right
Speaker 2: shoulder or left shoulder, right handed hook, he just attacks
Speaker 2: the shooting pocket and just knocks the ball loose, and
Speaker 2: so I actually think they might be able to in
Speaker 2: certain situations go to Gordon on ant as like just
Speaker 2: kind of like a different look. And I pulled some
Speaker 2: possessions for my film session those of you guys who
Speaker 2: are listening, probably tomorrow morning, I'm gonna record just a
Speaker 2: basic kind of film session on the series. You guys
Speaker 2: can see some visual examples. But I think Gordon can
Speaker 2: kind of cause some problems for Aunt is just like
Speaker 2: a different type of look, and I think ACP can
Speaker 2: hold up on Kat. I'd be more worried about rebounding
Speaker 2: in that situation than I would about like having to
Speaker 2: like deal with scoring.
Speaker 3: Well, what about the rotation behind it?
Speaker 1: Because while I agree with you, Denver counts on Aaron
Speaker 1: Gordon to be the backup center, and in this matchup,
Speaker 1: they're gonna play nas Red with the bench and they'll
Speaker 1: probably play Gobert and or Karl Anthony Towns behind it.
Speaker 1: Denver doesn't have another option there. It's DeAndre Jordan, it's
Speaker 1: Zeke Naji. I think both of those are very bad options.
Speaker 1: So if you do use Aaron Gordon on Anthony Edwards
Speaker 1: your stagger minute, now you have to find a backup center,
Speaker 1: and you might also have to find other minutes when
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon eventually needs a rest to guard Karl Anthony
Speaker 1: Towns with the starting lineup. So that's why I don't
Speaker 1: know if that's.
Speaker 2: An answer at I don't look at it as an
Speaker 2: answer so to speak, in terms of like a long
Speaker 2: term Look, I'm talking more about like a big moment
Speaker 2: if you know key possessions late you want to prevent
Speaker 2: a one on one matchup where and can just go
Speaker 2: straight to work like that sort of thing. I agree
Speaker 2: with you, like even above and beyond the part with
Speaker 2: the rotation. Also the back line, like a huge part
Speaker 2: to me of why the lebron Ad pick and roll
Speaker 2: caused Denver problems is when Yokic comes up to the
Speaker 2: level of the screen and Gordon's pressuring the ball, your
Speaker 2: two biggest players are twenty five feet from the basket
Speaker 2: or twenty to twenty five feet from the basket, and
Speaker 2: so when they get the ball past Jokic to the pocket,
Speaker 2: it was smaller players on the back line that was
Speaker 2: what was so genius about the adjustment of putting Gordon
Speaker 2: on Ad. Is Ad can't shoot, so Gordon was constantly
Speaker 2: on the back line waiting there, and a big part
Speaker 2: of the early part of that run when they were
Speaker 2: down twenty in Game two was Gordon bothering Lebron at
Speaker 2: the rim as a helper. And so I actually I
Speaker 2: agree with you. I'm more concerned about it on the
Speaker 2: back line, which is why I wouldn't do it in
Speaker 2: a large sample. I'm just talking about like any sort
Speaker 2: of singular possession where you need to stop. Don't hate
Speaker 2: the idea of having of Gordon spent some time on Cat. Now.
Speaker 2: I think obviously we're gonna probably see Gordon on Ant.
Speaker 2: Excuse me, we're gonna see Gordon on Kat to start
Speaker 2: Jokicon Gobert, Michael Porter Junior on Jaden. One of the
Speaker 2: things I think is gonna be interesting is the pick
Speaker 2: and roll coverages. So, for instance, one of the things
Speaker 2: that Vogel did in the regular season that worked really
Speaker 2: well on Minnesota but didn't work in the playoffs was
Speaker 2: he ran like aggressive high drops and hedges with with
Speaker 2: with tagging the roller against Ant to kind of like
Speaker 2: play him into his worst ability, which is playmaking. And
Speaker 2: then he would play passive like deep drop against Conley
Speaker 2: to bait him into his biggest weakness, which is passivity
Speaker 2: and his unwillingness to shoot. I actually would do that again.
Speaker 2: I they handled it well against Phoenix. Ant had a
Speaker 2: good play making series average like six assists per game
Speaker 2: and some big moments, handled the high drop and hedge
Speaker 2: really well. And Conley just happen to have a really
Speaker 2: good scoring series where he did some damage to the
Speaker 2: low drop and actually forced Vogel to adjust out of
Speaker 2: it into the high drop. Do you agree with that
Speaker 2: approach though? Is that how you would start? Would how
Speaker 2: would you guard and pick and roll against Anton Conley individually?
Speaker 1: I think that the roller has a lot to do
Speaker 1: with this as well, like who it is that you're
Speaker 1: rolling to the rim. Denver has played Gobert so many
Speaker 1: times over the course of this era, and they played
Speaker 1: him in a playoffs. And one of the things that
Speaker 1: I think Denver is good at is if you know
Speaker 1: if you are going to trap the ball, if you're
Speaker 1: gonna hard hedge, or if you're gonna actually fully trap.
Speaker 1: Denver usually just hard hedges, But if you're gonna hard hedge,
Speaker 1: you want him to catch the ball outside the paint,
Speaker 1: because he's not the best decision maker there. You compromise
Speaker 1: yourself up top, but now make him put the ball
Speaker 1: on the floor and make the extra read. I don't
Speaker 1: know that you necessarily want to give. You're suggesting that
Speaker 1: Denver with con I understand it, because you're right, is
Speaker 1: see how many floaters does he want to take? He's
Speaker 1: capable of making a lot of them, but how many
Speaker 1: does he want to take? It doesn't feel natural when
Speaker 1: that's the when, When that's what's happening with Anthony Edwards,
Speaker 1: I'm very curious because you're right that my inclination would
Speaker 1: be force him into play making, force him into decision
Speaker 1: read difficult reads is pick and roll one pass away
Speaker 1: difficult read though that to me feels pretty easy to make.
Speaker 1: Those are not the type of ones I think you're
Speaker 1: gonna say, we're going to force him to kick out
Speaker 1: to the open wing shooter. I think he is beyond that.
Speaker 1: But there are some secondary things, some secondary reads that
Speaker 1: I think that's going to try to force him into
Speaker 1: that might confuse him a little bit. By the way,
Speaker 1: this is one difference from the Phoenix series, and this
Speaker 1: one is that Nurkic and Jokic. Jokic is a significantly
Speaker 1: smarter pick and roll player, just in terms of making
Speaker 1: you make the hard read. He's not great at stopping
Speaker 1: the lab or any of that stuff, but he is
Speaker 1: good at making you hesitate a half second too long
Speaker 1: before realizing what your read should have been. That in
Speaker 1: between game and stunts and things. So Anthony Edwards is
Speaker 1: an improved playmaker. But I think yok which is good
Speaker 1: at making guys second guests themselves, and that'll be an
Speaker 1: interesting cat and mouse game in the Phoenix.
Speaker 2: Was super aggressive at the nail as well, like, and
Speaker 2: that did make a lot of really easy reads where
Speaker 2: like Ant would come off and Nurkic would be in
Speaker 2: the high drop. But then also Devin Booker would just
Speaker 2: be ignoring his man like sitting in the driving lane.
Speaker 2: So that you're right, there were like these really easy
Speaker 2: swing pass reads. I think, I think what the way
Speaker 2: that it should look in my opinion is essentially just
Speaker 2: making sure you tag from the weak side corner and
Speaker 2: don't overhelp one pass away at least make Ant make
Speaker 2: skip passes, if that makes sense. Now, the one now,
Speaker 2: the one thing that opens up, And I pulled an
Speaker 2: example of this that we'll see on film later on
Speaker 2: Friday but when you don't dig down at the into
Speaker 2: those driving lanes one pass away, it puts a lot
Speaker 2: of pressure on Jokic to catch Ant as he comes off.
Speaker 2: And there have been examples where Ant has been able
Speaker 2: to beat Yolkic at the at the level of the
Speaker 2: screen and then when he gets past him, there's not
Speaker 2: a whole lot on the back line, So like, yeah,
Speaker 2: so it could be a little bit tougher, but like
Speaker 2: that's the other thing too, is like you can always
Speaker 2: all you can always like go away from that if
Speaker 2: Ants causing problems where he is picking you apart or
Speaker 2: driving by Jokic. We saw Milwaukee have a really good
Speaker 2: game against Minnesota earlier this year where they went deep
Speaker 2: drop on both guys and basically said beat us with
Speaker 2: pull jumpers and floaters all night long. We're gonna just
Speaker 2: shut off the rim from you. And so I think
Speaker 2: I think that's another look that they can go to
Speaker 2: as well. And I think that's gonna be a read
Speaker 2: and react thing, And really it's gonna come down to,
Speaker 2: in my opinion, Ant's pull up jumper, because if he's
Speaker 2: hitting the pull up jumper like he did against Phoenix,
Speaker 2: I don't think you can run the deep drop necessarily,
Speaker 2: but if he's if he can kind of regress back
Speaker 2: to the regular season efficiency he was having there, I
Speaker 2: think you might be able to get away with that.
Speaker 2: Jamal Murray on Mike Conley, do you do you think
Speaker 2: he's going to spend the majority of the time there?
Speaker 1: I think so, because I think it makes the most
Speaker 1: sense for him to. It's not that that's an easy one.
Speaker 1: I think physically it might be easy, but even though
Speaker 1: it's a mental task trying to contain him, but at
Speaker 1: least physically it's not following antalogue around and even Jaden McDaniels,
Speaker 1: who it can be a good slasher try to grab
Speaker 1: some boards. That's a separate challenge. I think with Mike Conley,
Speaker 1: it's more of a mental challenge, and I think that's
Speaker 1: what Murray needs right now.
Speaker 2: And then the other piece of it, too is when
Speaker 2: they go to ball screens that don't involve Gobert. Like
Speaker 2: you mentioned, I agree, like you want to make Gobert
Speaker 2: catch on the role and make him be a decision maker.
Speaker 2: He's got kind of like stony hands, doesn't make quick
Speaker 2: decisions as a tendency to misshots around the rim. However,
Speaker 2: This is where Aaron Gordon is a huge advantage. I
Speaker 2: actually think they can switch a lot of the cat
Speaker 2: and nose red ball screens to avoid some of the
Speaker 2: issues that you can run into with pick and pop.
Speaker 2: As long as it's as long as it's as long
Speaker 2: as it's Gordon or Watson. And by the way, I
Speaker 2: didn't get to this earlier, but I loved the point
Speaker 2: you made about Christian Brown and Peyton Watson. And you know,
Speaker 2: one of the things that's been really staying out to
Speaker 2: me in this postseason so far is just how important
Speaker 2: athletic superiority is when it's this physical and it's this intense.
Speaker 2: And just like I thought that was what was fascinating
Speaker 2: about Bruce Brown as well. It was just like he
Speaker 2: was just one of the best. He was a wrecking
Speaker 2: ball athlete and he was able to make a lot
Speaker 2: of plays there. But when Peyton Watson.
Speaker 1: And by the way, Grayce and Allen going down last round,
Speaker 1: I look Sons were gonna lose that series one way
Speaker 1: or another. But that was part of why he was
Speaker 1: so valuable, is both lengthy and athleticism was needed there.
Speaker 1: And you take him out and all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: you lose that you replace it with a Kogie who's
Speaker 1: smaller athletic, but he's smaller and a team that was
Speaker 1: already cooked.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, and well, and the problem with specifically Grayson
Speaker 2: is like he's one of the most important pieces for
Speaker 2: Phoenix in terms of like getting the ball, popping around
Speaker 2: and getting three and getting three point shots, and then
Speaker 2: like without Grayson, they just don't get generated enough to
Speaker 2: reason it's a whole bunch of issues, but Phoenix, Phoenix
Speaker 2: is a whole other different set of problems that we
Speaker 2: have to get into. So the other thing I put
Speaker 2: in here is playing off their defense. So like again, Minnesota,
Speaker 2: they forced Denver into sixteen turnovers per game during the
Speaker 2: regular season, and they dominated points off of turnovers seventy
Speaker 2: five to fifty. And so I think just in general
Speaker 2: looking at both teams, for Minnesota, obviously they can have
Speaker 2: half court offense issues and so getting out in transition
Speaker 2: is going to be a big weapon for them. But
Speaker 2: also for Denver, they just have to take care of
Speaker 2: the basketball because that was a consistent issue during the
Speaker 2: regular season. That's something that they have to avoid. Is
Speaker 2: there anything else that you have in terms of like
Speaker 2: X's and those that you wanted to get into from
Speaker 2: the series.
Speaker 1: The offensive rebounding to transition defense is always an interesting question,
Speaker 1: and your point about Denver turning the ball over and
Speaker 1: getting offensive rebounds, they need to not turn it over
Speaker 1: and put pressure on second chance points because to your point,
Speaker 1: if this is a pure half court, I mean, we've
Speaker 1: seen games in the NBA this year eight combined fast
Speaker 1: break points, like neither team got it. If that happens
Speaker 1: in this series, Bender's winning. I think Minnesota has to
Speaker 1: generate turnover and they also have to get stops and
Speaker 1: turn those into transition. Well, two ways you can take
Speaker 1: care of that is don't turn the ball over and
Speaker 1: hit the offensive glass so that they are extra scared
Speaker 1: to get out in transition. They're more concerned with cleaning
Speaker 1: up the glass. Denver has not been a great offensive
Speaker 1: rebounding team. I do think there is scenarios where, again,
Speaker 1: especially in transition, when you get cross matches, can you
Speaker 1: bring go Bear outside the three point line because he
Speaker 1: wants to be on Aaron Gordon's roaming the pain and
Speaker 1: now he gets to do that, But you get a
Speaker 1: cross match and all of a sudden he's out on
Speaker 1: the perimeter. Aaron Gordon can eat in those moments, Michael
Speaker 1: Porter can eat in those moments, and Denver's gonna have
Speaker 1: to capitalize not just on those cross matches, but also
Speaker 1: on the offensive glass behind those.
Speaker 2: Agree getting cross matches by pushing in transition is like
Speaker 2: usually the easiest way to generate an advantage because you
Speaker 2: don't have to worry about running a screening action early
Speaker 2: in the shot clock to try to set up an
Speaker 2: action that has to take place later in the shot clock.
Speaker 2: I totally agree with you. So let's get to predictions,
Speaker 2: and I want you to get into it a little bit.
Speaker 2: How you actually expect the series to flow, but who
Speaker 2: you pick in how many games? How do you kind
Speaker 2: of project the series will flow.
Speaker 1: I kind of think that this series is gonna look
Speaker 1: like the previous one, different strategy, all the different things
Speaker 1: we just talked about. But I think there was a
Speaker 1: sense of, well, Denver didn't look that good in the
Speaker 1: last round and they got through it. I think this
Speaker 1: is gonna be another round where you get into game
Speaker 1: five and you're thinking, you know, Denver hasn't looked very
Speaker 1: good in this series, yet Minnesota hasn't necessarily looked very
Speaker 1: good in the series because I think both of these
Speaker 1: teams are gonna make life hard for the other. One
Speaker 1: prediction I have is I think both teams are gonna
Speaker 1: lose a home game in the first four games. I
Speaker 1: think Denver's gonna split and I think Minnesota's gonna split.
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, a lot of
Speaker 1: this comes down to Jamal Murray's health. I think Denver
Speaker 1: is the better team. I think Minnesota's on the come up.
Speaker 1: They remind me a lot of Denver in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: in the bubble, where they were just on the edge
Speaker 1: of being ready but not quite. There's still some flaws
Speaker 1: and there were still some lessons that they had to learn,
Speaker 1: but they were capable of upsetting teams that were perceived
Speaker 1: to be better than them. I think Minnesota is much
Speaker 1: the same. They have an incredible connection and incredible belief,
Speaker 1: and then their bread and butter is of course their
Speaker 1: defense with a superstar and Anthony Edwards, that's a great recipe.
Speaker 1: But Denver's recipe has tried, is tested and proven, and
Speaker 1: I think that this is a seven game series that
Speaker 1: Denver wins. It becomes a three game series after the
Speaker 1: two splits and I think the home teams win games
Speaker 1: five six.
Speaker 2: You just reminded me of something interesting from the bubble.
Speaker 2: Do you remember the Donovan Mitchell Jamal Murray, you know
Speaker 2: showdown in that in that first round series? Do you
Speaker 2: remember that?
Speaker 3: I will never forget that.
Speaker 2: Do you remember like the way that was discussed after
Speaker 2: the fact and it was like, oh, fake shooting in
Speaker 2: the bubble this is and I'm like, like, I talk
Speaker 2: about vindication Jamal Murray, Jim. You know, I was actually
Speaker 2: talking about this with a buddy of mine at the
Speaker 2: gym today because I, uh, so my my game, I'm
Speaker 2: like a score and I rely a lot on tough
Speaker 2: shot making myself, and so Jamal Murray's like my hero.
Speaker 2: I love everything about that guy, like his combination of
Speaker 2: footwork and the ability to get to like different types
Speaker 2: of pull up jump shots from so many different dribble
Speaker 2: combinations and footwork. I just I don't think people realize
Speaker 2: how hard he's had to work to get to that point,
Speaker 2: even like that shot that he hit over Austin Reeves,
Speaker 2: Like the one over Ad was tougher because he had
Speaker 2: to get more separation, but it's a more basic it's
Speaker 2: a more basic footwork, just a basic step back for
Speaker 2: right handed shooter going to the right. But that one
Speaker 2: that he hit over Austin, the funky like start stop,
Speaker 2: like backwards lean that he got to like just I
Speaker 2: just love Jamal Murray's skill set. I think it's super fascinating.
Speaker 2: And honestly, you just reminded me because that twenty twenty run,
Speaker 2: I remember everyone was getting undercut. Everyone was like, Jamal
Speaker 2: Murray's fake shooting. You know this guy's face, Everyone's faked,
Speaker 2: and I just feel I feel like Jamal has been vindicated.
Speaker 1: But so the one thing real quickly about that series, though,
Speaker 1: is I actually think Anthony Edwards at this stage of SCRID.
Speaker 3: I love Anthony Edwards.
Speaker 1: He more mirrors Donovan Mitchell than he does Jamal Murray
Speaker 1: in this one way. Murray took and made tough shots,
Speaker 1: but I think had a very good sense of what
Speaker 1: a good and bad shot was and when a bad shot.
Speaker 3: Was needed from the team.
Speaker 1: I think Donovan Mitchell doesn't quite understand even now. I
Speaker 1: don't think Donovan Mitchell always understands when it's time for
Speaker 1: the tough shot, Donovan, and when it's time for not
Speaker 1: that try to find something else and I think Anthony Edwards,
Speaker 1: I love him, and I don't think this has anything
Speaker 1: to do with selfishness, But I think he is still
Speaker 1: learning that lesson because there are still shots he takes,
Speaker 1: including in key moments where you go not that one there,
Speaker 1: like this is two minutes to go, it's a tie game.
Speaker 1: You've got to find the better thing. You had ten
Speaker 1: more seconds on the clock to get to that shot.
Speaker 1: And I think that's one difference between them. But obviously
Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards, I think a different caliber of player at
Speaker 1: least has been over the last regular season.
Speaker 3: In postseason, no, I totally agree.
Speaker 2: Like I think I think Donovan Mitchell's biggest weakness is
Speaker 2: game management, meaning like just kind of understanding and feeling
Speaker 2: the flow of a game. It was actually a big
Speaker 2: part of why I picked the Knicks over the Cavs
Speaker 2: last year. I was just like Jalen Brunson's a better
Speaker 2: game manager. He's just going to have a better feel
Speaker 2: for when to be aggressive, when to be passive, so
Speaker 2: on and so forth. So what I find what I
Speaker 2: find specifically fascinating about Aunt is like I saw the
Speaker 2: same thing in my film sessions today, Like he shot
Speaker 2: really well in the one clutch game they had, which
Speaker 2: was Game four clutch bass. Yeah, clutch basketball was a
Speaker 2: huge problem for the Timberwolves in the regular season, like
Speaker 2: just an absolute catastrophic problem. They were awful on both
Speaker 2: ends of the floor. Like I want to say, their
Speaker 2: offensive rating was like one oh four in the regular
Speaker 2: in their in their defensive rating was like one eighteen
Speaker 2: or one nineteen or something like that. But in the
Speaker 2: last game, the game in early April, the one that
Speaker 2: was like for the one seed, which, by the way,
Speaker 2: like home court advantage is a huge part of the series,
Speaker 2: which I'll get to in a second, But the Aunt
Speaker 2: had checked back into the game in the middle of
Speaker 2: fourth quarter. Denver was on their run and they went
Speaker 2: up like seven or something, and it came off of
Speaker 2: a ball screen and Jamal Murray switched out high on
Speaker 2: him and it was like twelve on the shot clock,
Speaker 2: and he just took like a really bad pull up three.
Speaker 2: And I remember just being like, why, it's kind of
Speaker 2: funny because, like, to me, the guy that Ant Aunt
Speaker 2: reminds me a lot of in terms of like approach
Speaker 2: is actually like Jason Tatum. But the difference between the
Speaker 2: two is Ant's just way more of an alpha dog
Speaker 2: personality and Tatum And the reason why I compare the
Speaker 2: two of them is both of them for being guys
Speaker 2: that are big, strong athletes, take way too many pull
Speaker 2: up jumpers like Jamal Murray. Jamal Murray does it because
Speaker 2: he's Jamal Murray and he's not exceptionally you know, athletic
Speaker 2: for his position. But like literally Tatum and Ant, they
Speaker 2: settle for so many pull up jumpers. But the biggest
Speaker 2: difference between the two is Ant's got that alpha dog mentality.
Speaker 2: And then two, for whatever reason, Ant gets into the
Speaker 2: postseason and those pull up jumpers just go in. They
Speaker 2: just do for whatever, for whatever reason they do when
Speaker 2: he gets to the postseason. For the record, he shot
Speaker 2: pretty well against Denver last year on his on his
Speaker 2: pull up jumper. But like, yeah, I agree with you.
Speaker 2: Decision making is going to be a huge piece for
Speaker 2: Ant in this series, and that's the biggest swing factor
Speaker 2: if he if he If Ant goes back to regular season,
Speaker 2: and I think the series is over five, Like I
Speaker 2: think this is gonna be I think they're gonna get
Speaker 2: him out of here quickly. Any any hope at a
Speaker 2: long series I think kind of hinges on ant maintaining
Speaker 2: his current level now as far as the low of
Speaker 2: the series, this is why I thought home court advantage
Speaker 2: was so important. I do. I do believe in like
Speaker 2: adjusting to a different matchup. I think Denver does this
Speaker 2: to teams where you go playing like a specific type
Speaker 2: of basketball and then you run into Denver and you're like, wow,
Speaker 2: this is very different, you know what I mean. And
Speaker 2: then in the Golden State Warriors, you play a bunch
Speaker 2: of teams and then all of a sudden you're playing
Speaker 2: that Golden State blender and you just get caught off guard.
Speaker 2: And I think I think Minnesota has a little bit
Speaker 2: of that on the defensive end of the floor, where
Speaker 2: there's like a little bit of an adjustment period, And
Speaker 2: had Minnesota got home court advantage, I think there was
Speaker 2: actually there would have actually been a decent chance for
Speaker 2: them to try to jump Denver early in the series
Speaker 2: while they're adjusting. But having those first two games in
Speaker 2: Denver I think is key because if they do happen
Speaker 2: to go to oh I think the series is over
Speaker 2: and I think that they have a better opportunity to
Speaker 2: do that at home or they have famously the best
Speaker 2: home court advantage in in NBA history with the elevation, right,
Speaker 2: I think that's a big piece of this. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: still I'm gonna go in six just because I think
Speaker 2: a Minnesota's defense will keep every game close. But I
Speaker 2: don't think Minnesota has that much of a chance to
Speaker 2: win this series simply because their biggest weakness is Denver's
Speaker 2: biggest strength. Their biggest weakness is execution in the half court.
Speaker 2: Their biggest strength for Denver is execution in the half court.
Speaker 2: I do think Minnesota's defense will keep games close, but
Speaker 2: kind of like what happened in that late April game,
Speaker 2: I just think Denver is going to out execute them
Speaker 2: late the picking them in six. By the way, I
Speaker 2: don't really like picking in the number of games. I
Speaker 2: think it's so pointless because it's like every series has
Speaker 2: like a weird game. It's like the Nick Sixers series
Speaker 2: has had two of them. Denver La clutch shooting, like
Speaker 2: a one clutch shot or one bad call could swing
Speaker 2: a game in a playoff series. So it's more just
Speaker 2: how much of a chance does a team have to win?
Speaker 2: And I'm more I'm more, I more or less give
Speaker 2: Minnesota the same chance that the Lakers had. I just
Speaker 2: think I think that their I think that their weakness
Speaker 2: is going to be a significant problem in this series.
Speaker 2: We didn't see it against Phoenix. Most of those games
Speaker 2: weren't close in by game four, there is no pressure
Speaker 2: because you're up three to zero. So if you lose
Speaker 2: that series, who cares? And so, like, I think Denver's
Speaker 2: gonna to grind these games down into the mud at
Speaker 2: the end, and I think it's going to shine a
Speaker 2: light on some of the offensive limitations for Minnesota. And
Speaker 2: so I think Denver is going to win how many games?
Speaker 2: Who cares? But like, I don't really see Minnesota as
Speaker 2: having that much of a chance. Before we get out
Speaker 2: of here, go Aheadal quickly.
Speaker 1: You mentioned I just I wanted to give one note
Speaker 1: here because I think it's interesting. But I believe in
Speaker 1: hyper focus. I think there are people that are hyper
Speaker 1: focuses or focusers, and I think Anthony Edwards, Nikolai jokicch
Speaker 1: and Jamal Murray are all this. And what I mean
Speaker 1: by that is you think about rock climbers who you know,
Speaker 1: on the edge of a cliff with lead life and
Speaker 1: death situation somehow gets them to be the best version
Speaker 1: of themselves and they are almost addicted to that feeling.
Speaker 1: When we talk, we always talk about clutches. Do these
Speaker 1: guys make shots? With Murray and Jokic, they make shots,
Speaker 1: but they also make reads, which just the mistakes go
Speaker 1: away in the clutch for those two guys, and I
Speaker 1: think it's just because whatever it is, the pressure brings
Speaker 1: their focus up a level.
Speaker 3: I think Anthony Edwards is the exact same.
Speaker 1: So when you talk about in the regular season clutch
Speaker 1: numbers this or that, I think the Timberwolves are a
Speaker 1: little bit better or will be a little bit better
Speaker 1: in the postseason as a clutch team, just on the
Speaker 1: fact that I think Anthony Edwards just shoots five percent
Speaker 1: better and makes five percent better reads in those moments
Speaker 1: because he seems to me to be a hyper focuser.
Speaker 2: That's super interesting. And again that kind of brings you
Speaker 2: back to what we talked about earlier as it pertains
Speaker 2: to which version of ANT are we getting, because like
Speaker 2: you know, the ANT, I don't think people realize what
Speaker 2: we saw from Ant in the last round, like he
Speaker 2: he didn't just beat Phoenix, he snatched their soul. Like
Speaker 2: it was like the most mental and physical dominant series
Speaker 2: I've seen from a young player in a very long time,
Speaker 2: and I don't know about you. I've always believed in
Speaker 2: Aunt ceiling. I just didn't think it would happen this soon.
Speaker 2: I thought I thought we were two three years away
Speaker 2: from him being able to do this sort of thing.
Speaker 2: And like, so, I actually I have two. I have two, Like, first,
Speaker 2: takey basketball topics for you before we get out of here.
Speaker 2: So the first one, I got a mail bag question
Speaker 2: last night, and in a very reactionary way, I said
Speaker 2: aunt immediately, But after thinking about it more, I still
Speaker 2: think I might lean ant. But I'm curious to hear
Speaker 2: your perspective. Who would you have on your basketball team
Speaker 2: for playoff series starting tomorrow? Anthony Edwards or Jason Tatum.
Speaker 1: Oh, Anthony Edwards for me, this one is actually not
Speaker 1: so it was for me too, and I'm for and look,
Speaker 1: I probably am a little too low on Tatum. But
Speaker 1: you said something, and guys use the language alpha this
Speaker 1: or that, I almost feel like it's something misleading as well.
Speaker 1: I almost like hyper focusing. Anthony Edwards one is a
Speaker 1: super competitor, that's clear. I think he has charisma, which
Speaker 1: is weirdly important in basketball because everybody's looking at you
Speaker 1: when you're the guy, and some guys have the charisma
Speaker 1: to be like, guys, I got it, don't worry, I
Speaker 1: got it. And I think Aunt is that guy, and
Speaker 1: I think Tatum's not. Tatum's a great player, but I
Speaker 1: don't know he's a guy that in the last thirty
Speaker 1: second you look at Murray got the ball with sixteen
Speaker 1: seconds left in Game five of that series. Nineteen thousand
Speaker 1: people in the arena, everybody knew he was. If he
Speaker 1: gets a clean look, it's going in, no question about it.
Speaker 1: And I think that Tatum, for as great as he
Speaker 1: is and is just a clearly to me in a
Speaker 1: different caliber in that one quality, and that's such an
Speaker 1: important quality when you're the leader of.
Speaker 2: About II one hundred percent agree. And I said the
Speaker 2: same thing last night, like I just think he's so
Speaker 2: much more of a dominant personality, but even just on
Speaker 2: a basketball level, like part of the reason why Tatum
Speaker 2: I think struggles in late game situations to try to
Speaker 2: generate shots. I don't think Tatum is big and strong,
Speaker 2: and he's very athletic, but he doesn't have a great
Speaker 2: first step, and so he actually he's actually not particularly
Speaker 2: great at getting to his spots and Anthony Edwards, Anthony Edwards,
Speaker 2: I think is one of those supreme, transcendently great generational
Speaker 2: athletes that can consistently get to stops and one of
Speaker 2: the get to spots and the things that I thought
Speaker 2: actually manifests in the in the numbers on this on
Speaker 2: this front of things is so far in Anthony Edwards's career,
Speaker 2: every single playoff run he's been over sixty percent true shooting,
Speaker 2: and this year he's at sixty five percent true shooting.
Speaker 2: Tatum has never had a playoff run over sixty percent
Speaker 2: true shooting. Now, obviously totally different sample sizes, and Tatum
Speaker 2: has made it to later rounds where the pressure in
Speaker 2: the quality of competition goes up. So I'm not trying
Speaker 2: to call that apples to apples, but I do think
Speaker 2: Ant's efficiency in the postseason is a really strong indicator
Speaker 2: of his athleticism being kind of like a differentiator at
Speaker 2: this level. I think he's got I think he's got
Speaker 2: defenders so much on their heels worried about the drive
Speaker 2: that he can just get great separation on these on
Speaker 2: these pulp jumpers. All right, Second one, because I'm gonna
Speaker 2: eventually get in trouble for that last one. As soon
Speaker 2: as Celtics fans get ahold of it, we'll see. Secondly,
Speaker 2: I've been getting reamed on Twitter all day today because
Speaker 2: I said I think Jokic has the highest floor that
Speaker 2: I've ever seen in a basketball player. And basically my
Speaker 2: reasoning was simple, Like Lebron, I think is a very
Speaker 2: high floor player too, And to me, high floor is like,
Speaker 2: on a night in, night out, basis, how reliably great
Speaker 2: is this person? Forget about like variants, just on a
Speaker 2: night in, night out, basis, what are the dependable things
Speaker 2: that this player brings to the table. And like counter
Speaker 2: examples are guys like PG and James Harden where it's like,
Speaker 2: for whatever reason, in really big games, when the intensity
Speaker 2: and physicality go up a level, it's almost like the opposite.
Speaker 2: It's almost like they can't impact winning the way that
Speaker 2: they typically do. And for me, the differentiator for Jokich
Speaker 2: is he's so big that, like, even when he's not
Speaker 2: as engaged defensively as he needs to be, he's just
Speaker 2: dominant on the defensive glass. And we literally saw for
Speaker 2: the Suns and Lakers how not being able to close
Speaker 2: out defensive possessions with the rebound can cost you a series.
Speaker 2: Gordon over to Lebron literally was a huge part of
Speaker 2: them winning that game five. The Timberwolves grabbed forty percent
Speaker 2: of their own misses against the Sun, So we know
Speaker 2: that defensive rebounding brings value. And then on the other
Speaker 2: end of the floor, I just think Jokic can generate
Speaker 2: quality shots on a possession by possession basis, regardless of
Speaker 2: whether or not he's personally hitting. That I think makes
Speaker 2: his floor extremely high. And so do you agree with me?
Speaker 2: And who would you if you had to come up
Speaker 2: with a guy who would compete with him for that spot?
Speaker 2: Who would it be?
Speaker 3: Such a good question.
Speaker 1: And here's how I look at it with Lebron because everybody,
Speaker 1: you know, the thing with Lebron and the game is evolved.
Speaker 1: But the thing with Lebron was he makes his teammates better.
Speaker 1: I think that is only mostly true, not fully true.
Speaker 1: There were players that he did not make better, that
Speaker 1: didn't fit the Lebron system. You know, Okay, Kevin Love
Speaker 1: maybe had to sacrifice more than he received from Lebron
Speaker 1: and Bosh and some of these other guys spot up shooters,
Speaker 1: roleplay guys, that had a more limited role. I think
Speaker 1: Jokic is a multiplier, a rare example of a multiplier.
Speaker 1: What I mean by that is one of his best felt.
Speaker 1: He's a great individual player, scorer, all those different things.
Speaker 1: He's great at it. But one of the things about
Speaker 1: yoke is that whatever your skill set is, and it
Speaker 1: doesn't matter, he's played with a wide variety of players.
Speaker 1: Whatever it is, he has a skill that fits that
Speaker 1: in a way that not even Lebron necessarily had that.
Speaker 1: Lebron had his style and you fit to it, He's
Speaker 1: gonna make you better. But with Jokic, it's oh you,
Speaker 1: Reggie Jackson, you run this style of offense, KCP, you
Speaker 1: do this, Aaron Gordon, you do this. Whatever it is.
Speaker 1: He molds his game to it, and I think the
Speaker 1: same is true. Then when you talk about what defense
Speaker 1: do you throw at him, whatever defense you throw, he
Speaker 1: has something in his tool bag to mold around that
Speaker 1: and to form himself around that in a way that's
Speaker 1: even different than Lebron. Lebron more dominant, more overwhelming, more
Speaker 1: of a sledgehammer and the things he was capable of doing.
Speaker 1: But Jokic is like a multi multi tool. There's a
Speaker 1: tool in his bag for every situation. And to me,
Speaker 1: I like the way you framed it. I think knowing
Speaker 1: who the greatest player of all time is or ranking players,
Speaker 1: to me, it's so fun to do. It's a fund
Speaker 1: mental exercise. But at the end of the day, it's impossible.
Speaker 1: It's not logical to get that. But when you talk
Speaker 1: about floors, there is more logic to it, because I do.
Speaker 1: I think that Jokic fits with every two man game
Speaker 1: you could possibly throw at him. Throw a player out there,
Speaker 1: Aleen Brunson, Luka, Doncic, Damian Lillard. Jokic has something in
Speaker 1: his game that would fit perfectly with those guys, and
Speaker 1: that's why I would agree with you about him being
Speaker 1: this floor y.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And you know, one of the things that Lebron
Speaker 2: fans were saying on Twitter today is like, oh, well,
Speaker 2: his athleticism gives him an extremely high floor. And I
Speaker 2: do agree within the context of the post. I do
Speaker 2: agree within the context of the postseason. But like trust me,
Speaker 2: as a Lebron fan, I watched just about every game
Speaker 2: he played over the course of his career, and basically
Speaker 2: from about twenty fifteen, which by the way, he was
Speaker 2: thirty It's not like we're talking about his tail end
Speaker 2: of his prime. From about twenty fifteen to this day,
Speaker 2: Lebron was an inconsistent effort guy in the regular season
Speaker 2: And it doesn't matter how athletic he is if he's
Speaker 2: not got it, if he doesn't have his foot down
Speaker 2: to the medal, you know, a pedal to the metal,
Speaker 2: so to speak. Right, So, like, one of the things
Speaker 2: that's interesting to me about jokicch is like it doesn't
Speaker 2: matter how much he's engaging himself physically, Like as soon
Speaker 2: as you get in the half court, he's just giant
Speaker 2: that and that makes it so that even when he's
Speaker 2: not necessarily sprinting and moving as much as he normally does,
Speaker 2: there's a certain like physical imposition he has over the
Speaker 2: eighty two that Lebron didn't have in terms of his
Speaker 2: night and night out impact and so like again, like
Speaker 2: in terms of day one of the regular season to
Speaker 2: Game seven of the NBA Finals and everything in between,
Speaker 2: and who had the most consistent high floor of any
Speaker 2: individual player that I've seen. I I lean towards Jokich.
Speaker 2: I I just I think and size.
Speaker 1: And size matters because I think about Draymond Green the
Speaker 1: greatest small ball center in the history of basketball, most
Speaker 1: likely rendered useless against Jokic defensively. I mean, by his
Speaker 1: own admission, you know, has nothing for him, And so
Speaker 1: Lebron's athleticism I think is canceled in many ways by
Speaker 1: Jokic's size, at least on the offensive end, because Jokica size,
Speaker 1: you need somebody at least six to eleven. Even throwing
Speaker 1: a guy six ' ten at him, like a shng
Speaker 1: goon or something. Even throwing a guy that's just a
Speaker 1: little bit below true center size, it's just it's hopeless.
Speaker 1: And the same way that if you threw an unathletic
Speaker 1: guy on Lebron.
Speaker 2: And again, the defensive rebounding piece, Like I like so
Speaker 2: many of the Lebron fans were like, he's not nearly
Speaker 2: as good defensively, and it's like, yeah, I agree, And
Speaker 2: Lebron's prime obviously was a much better defensive player. But like,
Speaker 2: there is a floor that comes from the ability to
Speaker 2: close out every single defensive possession with the defensive rebound.
Speaker 2: Like again, as until you've rooted for a team that
Speaker 2: can't close out possessions, you don't really realize how valuable
Speaker 2: that is. But it is so immensely valuable and the
Speaker 2: dead giveaway and the last thing I'll say about it.
Speaker 2: After Game five, Lakers were doing a lot of damage
Speaker 2: and pick and roll ad was doing like over the
Speaker 2: course of the series, Like the Lakers had some success
Speaker 2: attacking Jokic, but Mike Michael Malone gave Jokic the defensive
Speaker 2: player of the game necklace or you know, chain thing,
Speaker 2: and he immediately said, eighteen defensive rebounds. You get the thing.
Speaker 2: And I was like, he gets it, Like he just
Speaker 2: gets it. He understands, he understands it like this because
Speaker 2: like I can just yeah, I can't tell you how
Speaker 2: many times in that series I'd watch a shot go
Speaker 2: up and I'd watch ad or Ruey crash and they
Speaker 2: just couldn't get it. They just couldn't get it, Like
Speaker 2: it just you weren't getting it, Like it was like
Speaker 2: and I watched those same guys do that Damna rushes
Speaker 2: yet and like it almost they almost look like they're
Speaker 2: completely overmatched when they're trying to go over the top
Speaker 2: of him to get the rebound.
Speaker 1: But Adam going and by the way, defense and offense
Speaker 1: are combined, so the scariest guy Lebron's the greatest transition
Speaker 1: player probably ever. Yokes right there, he grabs the rebound,
Speaker 1: and the gap between defense and offense blurs, because all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, now it's like, oh crap that not
Speaker 1: only are we have to get back on defense, but
Speaker 1: here comes the seven foot point guard full speed ahead.
Speaker 1: And conditioning, by the way, also a part of athleticism.
Speaker 1: Athleticism everybody knows this, but this is another one where
Speaker 1: we overlook it. Jokic wears Anthony Davis down, he wears
Speaker 1: DeAndre Ayton, that he wears every center down because of
Speaker 1: his athleticism, which is in his case is endurance.
Speaker 2: And one percent agree that. I can't tell you how
Speaker 2: many times I did like a tweet with some film
Speaker 2: clips where I'm like, here's Jokich beating ad down the
Speaker 2: floor again, Like here's all these different things, you know.
Speaker 2: I remember a game a couple of years ago where
Speaker 2: Denver won in Philly. It was one of the first
Speaker 2: like kind of Embid versus Jokich showdowns, and I remember
Speaker 2: like like everyone was looking at the stat sheet and
Speaker 2: embiid had these massive numbers, but then Jokic literally won
Speaker 2: the game. This was the game I don't know if
Speaker 2: you remember this was the game where Bones Highland got
Speaker 2: hot from three? Do you remember this one? Yeah? Okay,
Speaker 2: so and he had like two or three like thirty
Speaker 2: footers in the second half if I remember correctly, But like,
Speaker 2: uh uh, But Jokic was dominating that game because he
Speaker 2: understood that Philly was a bad transition defense, and it
Speaker 2: was just cleaning up the defensive glass and throwing kick
Speaker 2: ahead passes and just literally those two things generated enough
Speaker 2: offense for Denver to get a win. But Adam, this
Speaker 2: was fun. We could have talked all day, of course,
Speaker 2: but I sincerely appreciate you taking the time. Why don't
Speaker 2: you tell everybody what you're working on these days?
Speaker 1: Well, I appreciate you having me on Love the channel,
Speaker 1: Love what you're doing. I'm on all NBA podcasts four
Speaker 1: times a week with Tim Legler on YouTube and the
Speaker 1: DNBR Nuggets. If you want more Nuggets fun postgame analysis,
Speaker 1: we go live on DNBR Nuggets on YouTube right after that.
Speaker 2: Guys, make sure you get over there and support those channels.
Speaker 2: As always, we sincerely appreciate you for supporting us. This
Speaker 2: is going to be a really fun series and looking
Speaker 2: forward to it. Everybody, have a good night. We will
Speaker 2: see you tomorrow morning.
Speaker 1: The volume