Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from
Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You
Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday
Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global
Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Let's get
Speaker 2: right to it. Let me give you the history of
Speaker 2: Paul's going to bring him in. Matt was Zaddi with
Speaker 2: Deutsche Bank and the team over there absolutely nailed a
Speaker 2: graceful recession called years ago that came out and they said,
Speaker 2: you know, there's going to be a recession off the pandemic.
Speaker 2: But the first day they said it, Paul, they said,
Speaker 2: we don't know when, and they had a huge humility
Speaker 2: at the time, trying not to cherry pick the gloom
Speaker 2: of recession. And so there we are. Is it really
Speaker 2: hasn't happened stimulus and you know, an update here as
Speaker 2: we go into all this labor data, why don't you
Speaker 2: bring in mister Lozetti exactly?
Speaker 3: The economic data has been solid, inflation coming down. It's
Speaker 3: a you know what question is it a soft landing?
Speaker 3: Matt Lazetti joins us. He's a chief US economist for
Speaker 3: Deutsche Bank. The last time I saw him, Tom was
Speaker 3: in the Veil airport and I said, Hey, how was
Speaker 3: your skiing? He didn't ski, he was at there for business.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, who does that?
Speaker 3: I mean immediately I took my I vote away from them.
Speaker 3: You know so, Matt, thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 3: Here is Thom was saying, here this economy, I guess
Speaker 3: what do you guys make of a Deutsche Bank? I
Speaker 3: think most people, the marketplace broadly defined, is pleasantly surprised
Speaker 3: about the US economy, particularly relative to other parts of
Speaker 3: the world.
Speaker 5: You have to be pleasantly surprised. I think if you
Speaker 5: look back to twenty twenty three, it was the best
Speaker 5: possible outcome for the economy, the best possible outcome from
Speaker 5: the Fed's perspective. You had above three percent real GDP growth,
Speaker 5: You had the unemployment rate down to three point seven percent,
Speaker 5: and over the back half of last year, you had
Speaker 5: core PC inflation, which is what the FED focus is on,
Speaker 5: below two percent. That was a remarkable outcome I think
Speaker 5: for a FED that raised rates by over five hundred
Speaker 5: basis points that was undertaking a very aggressive QT outcome.
Speaker 4: Question is you know.
Speaker 5: Where do we go from here? We still now continue
Speaker 5: to see this very resilient economy continuing, the labor market
Speaker 5: looking resilient. Will get an update with data this week.
Speaker 5: Key question will be, especially from the Fed's perspective, how
Speaker 5: much of the disinflation trend that we got last year
Speaker 5: continues or is the strong inflation prints that we got
Speaker 5: over January and February is that a new trend that
Speaker 5: work that we're seeing that How to Fed strap about that, because.
Speaker 3: That's probably one of the forefront issues for the market,
Speaker 3: is boy, that are we seeing a resurgence in inflation?
Speaker 5: What do you guys think? Yeah, so you have to
Speaker 5: acknowledge I think January was a very strong inflation print,
Speaker 5: and when we got data last week, core PC was
Speaker 5: actually revised a little bit higher. February was better, but
Speaker 5: not good enough. From the Fed's perspective, I think when
Speaker 5: you look at the components that drove it, shelter inflation
Speaker 5: both in January and February was higher than anticipated. You know,
Speaker 5: we do continue to expect that will come down. We
Speaker 5: have these private sector estimates of rents that have come
Speaker 5: down a lot, So I think that's still going to happen,
Speaker 5: but it's more uncertain than it was three months ago.
Speaker 5: And you know, when you look at these other core
Speaker 5: services items, there was actually a lot of disinflation in
Speaker 5: them in the February date. I thought that was a
Speaker 5: good data point from the Fed's perspective in terms of
Speaker 5: supercore The morning after.
Speaker 2: The invasion of Ukraine by mister Putin, David Folkertslando of
Speaker 2: Deutsche Bank was adamant that we would see government stimulus,
Speaker 2: we would see fiscal policy across Europe and across the world.
Speaker 2: Clearly we've seen that in the United States. Is this
Speaker 2: great underestimation of our boom economy? Is it just because
Speaker 2: of the three stimuli we had?
Speaker 5: No, I think it is absolutely part of it. If
Speaker 5: you look at the budget deficit last year relatively the
Speaker 5: unemployment rate, we were running a very loose fiscal policy
Speaker 5: relative to the stance of the economy not the only thing.
Speaker 5: I think we've seen greater focus on the supply side
Speaker 5: of the economy, especially from the FED, and there's great
Speaker 5: work from Brookings the CBO recently just looking at net
Speaker 5: immigration flows, how much that added to labor the labor
Speaker 5: market over the past year. And was this really positive
Speaker 5: supply side story for the economy. I think it allowed
Speaker 5: us to have strong growth, but disinflation as part of that.
Speaker 5: And then you just have to say that the Fed's
Speaker 5: monetary policy tightening was probably just had less traction than anticipated.
Speaker 5: You know, markets didn't crumble as much as I would
Speaker 5: have thought under a five percent FED funds rate, people
Speaker 5: were able to lock in low interest rates, and mortgage
Speaker 5: debt ratios are still quite low.
Speaker 2: Where was your real nominal GDP run rate right now,
Speaker 2: you know, going out three four quarters?
Speaker 5: So I think if you look at what I think
Speaker 5: potential growth is for the economy, at least in the
Speaker 5: near term, I think it's probably closer to and a
Speaker 5: quarter or so. I think it's meaningfully above what the
Speaker 5: FED has real GDP potential. Now, I think that there's
Speaker 5: there's obviously lots of it turned here on that the
Speaker 5: labor supply story has been really important there. But I
Speaker 5: think there's a really constructive productivity growth story for the
Speaker 5: US economy if you look over the next several years.
Speaker 6: Now.
Speaker 4: Part of that could.
Speaker 5: Certainly be AI. We as a house are very constructive
Speaker 5: on AI, but I think there's a lot of uncertainty
Speaker 5: in quantifying that. The reason to be positive is that
Speaker 5: you typically see tight labor markets followed by very strong
Speaker 5: productivity growth. And the idea is that firms are forced
Speaker 5: to do capital deepening. Do cap X find productivity enhands
Speaker 5: in those projects?
Speaker 2: We call that the Boston red SOX.
Speaker 3: Right, So, Matt, given that backdrop, Matt, what's our federal
Speaker 3: reserve going to do? I mean, I don't know. We
Speaker 3: started the year thinking six rate cuts, and now we're
Speaker 3: pricing less than I don't know, three, maybe a little
Speaker 3: bit less than three. How do you guys think about that?
Speaker 5: Yeah, so we have them cutting first in June. I
Speaker 5: think what we've heard almost uniformly from Fed officials is
Speaker 5: that they're not in a rush today, and they're not
Speaker 5: in a rush today, both because the economy is hanging
Speaker 5: in better than anticipated and so there's no urgency to cut,
Speaker 5: but also because inflation has surprised the upside, so there's
Speaker 5: greater uncertainty about the inflation trend. I think if you
Speaker 5: get softter inflation prints over the next few months, the
Speaker 5: FED probably does cut in June. But I think the
Speaker 5: bigger question will be what does this overall cutting profile
Speaker 5: look like. And I think there's a very strong case
Speaker 5: to be made that perhaps the FED only does two
Speaker 5: or three insurance cuts. We think of it as a
Speaker 5: little bit more of a mid cycle adjustment, and that
Speaker 5: any cuts beyond that become a lot more uncertain.
Speaker 2: This is a great half far I got. Matt Lazzetti
Speaker 2: was the Deutsche Bank, and then Edward Morse will join
Speaker 2: US Emeritis City Group with his new effort in looking
Speaker 2: at geo politics and oil. I want to link the
Speaker 2: two together. Deutsche Bank fifteen twenty years ago on the
Speaker 2: high ground on oil analysis, it was Adam Saminsky and
Speaker 2: Paul Sank Nobody world what everybody read it? Everybody read
Speaker 2: the Deutsche Bank Excel spreadsheets on supply and demand. What
Speaker 2: does ninety dollars brent crude mean to you? How does
Speaker 2: that change the American calculus of oil?
Speaker 5: To be honest, I don't think it changes it all
Speaker 5: that much. You know, I think as we think about
Speaker 5: from a growth perspective, at least from a downside risk perspective,
Speaker 5: it's usually oil price shocks that drives that, and so
Speaker 5: you need to break out of what a recent range
Speaker 5: has been. Ninety dollars is still within the recent range
Speaker 5: over the past several years. The economy is very different
Speaker 5: than it was ten years ago. Okay, so it's not
Speaker 5: just about how it impacts the US consumer and disposed income.
Speaker 5: But you do have shale, you have net exports.
Speaker 2: Well, but you model out like JP Morgan, do you
Speaker 2: model out that if you get an emerging market boom,
Speaker 2: you get oil well over one hundred even out to one.
Speaker 5: Sure, you know, I think it's it's certainly possible that
Speaker 5: you get there. What drives that is really important for
Speaker 5: the economy. So if it is a supply side driven story,
Speaker 5: then that acts as a shock that's more negative for growth.
Speaker 5: If it is organically driven by stronger demand, you know
Speaker 5: certainly that that can weigh on US consumers, but overall
Speaker 5: it's a less negative story for you.
Speaker 2: I get twenty seconds. It is a true Villanova's looking
Speaker 2: at you to sell it as a basketball.
Speaker 5: No I don't think so.
Speaker 2: Okay, that was Odie, Thank you so much. Out of
Speaker 2: Villanova and you see there with Deutsch and yes, Edward
Speaker 2: Morse coming up in a moment, Tom King and Paul
Speaker 2: Swiney worldwide right now. With Edward Morris definitive at citing
Speaker 2: group for years. They threw him up. Jane called him up.
Speaker 2: He went down to his office and said, I see you. Well,
Speaker 2: that's not quite what happened. He's iconic in oil and
Speaker 2: of course with a geopolitical study to it, has worked
Speaker 2: with a consul and foreign relations and you know, I'm like, okay,
Speaker 2: he can't retire. Where's he going to land? Yeah? And
Speaker 2: what's so cool about hard training is this is Amorada
Speaker 2: Hesse from a million years ago. And then oak Tree
Speaker 2: Management took out Amarada's interest. So there's a heritage here
Speaker 2: of global oil along with the intellectual acuity of oak Tree.
Speaker 2: And they've picked up ed Morse because he was looking
Speaker 2: for a job whereund and the doctor Morris joins us
Speaker 2: this morning where Morres, congratulations on this new effort. I'm
Speaker 2: glad to see you slow down to a sixty hour week.
Speaker 2: And where's the marginal geopolitical interest right now, Which region,
Speaker 2: which country, which part of Brent crude is the most
Speaker 2: interest to.
Speaker 4: Edward Morse, I think it really is the Middle East.
Speaker 4: And it's the Middle East for obvious reasons, not just
Speaker 4: because of what's happening in Israel, but the after math
Speaker 4: of all of that, and struggles internally and externally involving
Speaker 4: Iran and Iraq, and of course we've got Saudi Arabia,
Speaker 4: which is along with Russia, leading the charge with opek plus.
Speaker 4: So if you look at the politics of managing markets
Speaker 4: and the risks to the management of markets, the Middle
Speaker 4: East is the main focus. But you know, honestly, if
Speaker 4: you're trading in the Western Hemisphere and you're trading around
Speaker 4: Houston and you look at a new Mexican refinery that's
Speaker 4: likely to o that, you know, the sweet sour relationship
Speaker 4: with the US Gulf Coast is also changing. So it
Speaker 4: depends on where you are globally. It's really been the
Speaker 4: least you know.
Speaker 2: I was talking to Jane and I said, why'd you
Speaker 2: let him go? I mean, he had the call of
Speaker 2: the pandemic. Everybody else Paul is looking for one hundred
Speaker 2: and twenty dollars barrel oil and Morse is up on
Speaker 2: the soapbox screen and no, you're wrong. We're going down
Speaker 2: to sixty or seventy whatever it was at massive call
Speaker 2: as well. Do you see pushing against that a nascent
Speaker 2: global demand that gets us to this Brent crew ninety
Speaker 2: or higher.
Speaker 4: Well, I don't think it's the demand side, Tom, I
Speaker 4: think it's really the supply side. I think it's a
Speaker 4: combination of factors. On the supply side. That combination of
Speaker 4: factors is a restraint that major producers are having and
Speaker 4: putting crude oil into the market, and the distortions in
Speaker 4: the market that need to be worked out, and they
Speaker 4: will be worked out that come from the blockages of
Speaker 4: the Seuss Canal and leading. You know, Sumed pipeline is
Speaker 4: the only way to really get sustainable flows into the
Speaker 4: Med and out of the Med from the Middle East
Speaker 4: and to the Middle East. So we're going to have,
Speaker 4: as we did with Russia Ukraine, working out of freight
Speaker 4: rates and working out of that distortion weighing on prices eventually,
Speaker 4: And what we don't really know is what the response
Speaker 4: is going to be on the demand side with respect
Speaker 4: to buying oil from the Middle East and elsewhere. Particularly
Speaker 4: in China. We've got a country that has shifted its
Speaker 4: gears as a major importer, shifting its skiers in terms
Speaker 4: of deciding for geopolitical reasons, it's going to be building
Speaker 4: a massive inventory. We reckoned roughly another five hundred million
Speaker 4: barrels of storage capacity can be filled all of storage,
Speaker 4: and China is strategic and the yet to high prices,
Speaker 4: China is not only not going to be importing more
Speaker 4: than they consume, they're going to be exporting. That's the
Speaker 4: pattern that we've learned to anticipate that we should learn
Speaker 4: to anticipate it as oil breaches ninety dollars, which looks
Speaker 4: like an almost certainty in the next couple of months.
Speaker 3: And one of the things that is relatively new in
Speaker 3: the global oil space is the fact that the US
Speaker 3: has gone from being a net importer to a net exporter.
Speaker 3: Why don't our friends done, and I don't know, Texas
Speaker 3: and Oklahoma just start fracking some more oil.
Speaker 4: Well, I think that's exactly what's going to happen. You
Speaker 4: have several new incentives to fract more. One of them
Speaker 4: is where the price is, where the COVID curves are,
Speaker 4: and where you can make money if you're a publicly
Speaker 4: creded company by shifting to rapid response petroleum production. And
Speaker 4: then there's on top of that the technological advances that
Speaker 4: are being made. There are lots of talks on your
Speaker 4: shows and others about the revolutionary impacts of artificial intelligence.
Speaker 4: Artificial intelligence is also working its way into the oil patch,
Speaker 4: and that artificial intelligence is bringing up productivity levels in
Speaker 4: terms of how do you manage tracking crews, how you
Speaker 4: manage track production or track utilization. And I think we're
Speaker 4: going to see a response to that. We had basically
Speaker 4: a worldwide webinar from SMP earlier in a few days
Speaker 4: ago in which they said, you know, their their deck
Speaker 4: deck increase in US production of eight hundred thousand barrels
Speaker 4: a day may have to be revised upward because of
Speaker 4: the high prices that we're now seeing.
Speaker 3: So how about OPEK plus. What is the role of
Speaker 3: OPEC plus now in the global marketplace?
Speaker 4: Well, OPECK plus is a response to the failure of OPEK.
Speaker 4: OPEK and I have written about this a nauseam always
Speaker 4: wrong that we're seeing the end of OPEC. But the
Speaker 4: survival of OPEC dependent upon bringing in Russia and Central
Speaker 4: Asian countries and other non OPEC members. They you know,
Speaker 4: they've got a very big hold on the market. H
Speaker 4: and then and their aim is to maximize revenues uh,
Speaker 4: and not to maximize them too much where they get
Speaker 4: a drop in oil demand. So uh, that's it. That's
Speaker 4: its role. And they're going to stall as long as
Speaker 4: they can to see where prices are going before you know,
Speaker 4: lifting the thing. We will see whether they lift it
Speaker 4: in June.
Speaker 2: And I got two two minutes left. Do you drive
Speaker 2: an electric car? Do you drive an electric car or
Speaker 2: a hybrid?
Speaker 4: I drive a Tesla?
Speaker 2: You drive a Tesla? See I knew that well Ed
Speaker 2: Morris on electric cars? Is the bloom off the rose?
Speaker 2: Or do you think there's an immediate sustainability this say
Speaker 2: President Biden would want an immediate sustainability. I see it
Speaker 2: in the United Kingdom, I see it in Europe. Does
Speaker 2: Edmore's think they're here to stay? Or is it one off?
Speaker 2: And we go back to ye to uh the internal
Speaker 2: combustion engine.
Speaker 4: I doubt think we're going to see it rush back
Speaker 4: the internal combustion engines. We may see a rush into
Speaker 4: the hybrid vehicles. We're certainly seeing public policy in the
Speaker 4: city that we live in or work in is one
Speaker 4: where we're seeing delivery vans based on fossil fuels and
Speaker 4: buses based purely on fossil fuels being eliminated, and hybrid
Speaker 4: vehicles are certainly one way to go and on electric.
Speaker 4: It depends on you which country you're in. China certainly
Speaker 4: is seeing an end to gasoline demand because of their
Speaker 4: ev policy. The US isn't because we're not short distance drivers.
Speaker 4: We're long distance drivers, and drivers are awaiting technological change
Speaker 4: to see a long and lasting battery in terms of
Speaker 4: miles driven. But I can tell you it is the
Speaker 4: most fun car I've ever driven, even better than the
Speaker 4: MGS I used to drive.
Speaker 2: There you go and yours. I can just see him
Speaker 2: in the MGTD. Oh that was the one on the
Speaker 2: wooden slats in the bottom. My father wouldn't let me
Speaker 2: buy it. Ed Morris's father less short high one. Ed Morris,
Speaker 2: wonderful to speak to. Congratulations on this important position at Hartree,
Speaker 2: mister Morris, on our marginal barrel of oil. With the
Speaker 2: shock of the Erdowuan losses in Turkey in municipal elections,
Speaker 2: there is exactly oh one, two, maybe three experts I'd
Speaker 2: want to talk to. But the most successible one for
Speaker 2: you is my book of the year, The Loom of
Speaker 2: Time for twenty twenty three. It transfix me. It is
Speaker 2: Robert D. Klatt Kaplin doing what he's doing. He moves
Speaker 2: from Morocco over to the various stands to the east.
Speaker 2: It is a spectacular book. In chapter three we find
Speaker 2: Robert T. Clatt Kaplan slowly walking around this architecturally complex
Speaker 2: and monumental structure known as Constantinople. Robert Caplin, thank you
Speaker 2: so much for joining us today. Is Airedwan done?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 6: First of all, it's a pleasure to be with you,
Speaker 6: Tom No. One is not done. He's not up for
Speaker 6: re election for a number of years now. And look
Speaker 6: at it this way. He's been in power twenty years. Yeah,
Speaker 6: you don't stay in power for twenty years in a
Speaker 6: partial or a full democracy without ultimately going downhill. So
Speaker 6: he's still got some ammunition up his sleeve. And the
Speaker 6: big question for Turkey though, is look imagine if Donald
Speaker 6: Trump had been in power in the United States for
Speaker 6: twenty four years like Airdwan has, what would be the
Speaker 6: state of institutions, the Justice Department, etc. Airediwan has destroyed
Speaker 6: Turkish institutions. So the question for Turkey is even if
Speaker 6: there is a new prime minister, a new president in
Speaker 6: a few years like Imma Moglu who won the mayorship
Speaker 6: of istam Bul the other day and a big victory,
Speaker 6: even if he becomes prime minister, will there be institutions
Speaker 6: to work with or will Turkey have a kind of
Speaker 6: wiemar chaotic situation.
Speaker 2: Out of his childhood and is you know, the interesting
Speaker 2: childhood of Aridiwana. In the twenty two years that he's
Speaker 2: been the leader, his foreign policy has been to look
Speaker 2: south and take his Islamic view across levant, across all
Speaker 2: of your the loom of time, the arc of the
Speaker 2: Middle East. Is he diminished in his influence in the
Speaker 2: Middle East now because of these election losses?
Speaker 6: Yet yes, he is. You lose this big in a
Speaker 6: nationwide election, which is what this really was. He not
Speaker 6: only lost in Istanbul, he lost across the country. This
Speaker 6: lowers his credibility throughout the region, which was never you know,
Speaker 6: which was problematic to begin with because the major mistake
Speaker 6: he made a long time ago was to back the
Speaker 6: radicals in the Middle East, not the conservative Sunni Arab regimes.
Speaker 6: So it wasn't as if he was pro Arab and
Speaker 6: anti Israel. He was pro radical Arab and as a result,
Speaker 6: he misread the region.
Speaker 3: All right, speaking of another region of the world, let's
Speaker 3: go to Asia. President. President. She spoke by phone about
Speaker 3: a number of key issues here, Robert, where how do
Speaker 3: you view that part of the world right now? And
Speaker 3: the US role and how the US should act over
Speaker 3: the coming months and quarters and maybe a year.
Speaker 6: I think between now and the election and next November,
Speaker 6: the Biden administration is going to try to orchestrate a
Speaker 6: rap pro schmat with China because that will look good
Speaker 6: in elections, you know, you know, lower the talk of conflict,
Speaker 6: you know, stabilize the relationship, that will look good with voters.
Speaker 6: And also the relationship has gotten so toxic, so so dangerous,
Speaker 6: that something has to be done.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 6: The markets, financial markets have priced in war in Ukraine,
Speaker 6: they've priced in Gaza, all of that nicely. But if
Speaker 6: there were ever a real shooting war between the two
Speaker 6: the world's two largest economies, in a high end military conflict,
Speaker 6: it would be devastating for financial markets, absolutely devastating. And
Speaker 6: that's if the war only lasted a few days. It
Speaker 6: could go on longer. So it's imperative of the Biden
Speaker 6: administration now I think the Chinese authorities as well, not
Speaker 6: to solve their problems, but to build a parameter around them,
Speaker 6: to build rules of the road so that the so
Speaker 6: that the downward turn in relations is at least stabilized.
Speaker 3: Robert again, there's so many ways we could go here,
Speaker 3: we have limited time. Let's switch gears yet again, go
Speaker 3: to the Middle East. It appears that Israel is just
Speaker 3: not backing down on any sneer exactly, Tommy exactly. And
Speaker 3: it seems like the Biden inistration and others are growing
Speaker 3: a little weary of Israel's position here.
Speaker 2: Where are we there?
Speaker 6: We are? We are in essentially a war with Iran
Speaker 6: that started on October seventh. The October seventh atrocities were
Speaker 6: so be steel, they were so intimate that I believe
Speaker 6: it changed the Israeli calculus on how to deal with Iran.
Speaker 6: And we saw an example of this the other day
Speaker 6: where they where they killed a number of Iranian generals.
Speaker 6: This is going to go on because October seventh, even
Speaker 6: if the Iranians were not directly implicated, they were fundamentally
Speaker 6: implicated because they had been supporting Hamas for so many years.
Speaker 6: So we're in a proxy war with Iran. For the moment,
Speaker 6: it's in Gaza. I think this summer it will move
Speaker 6: northward to southern to northern Israel, southern Lebanon, because you know,
Speaker 6: Israel as about eighty thousand citizens who cannot return to
Speaker 6: their homes in northern Israel. That's a de facto loss
Speaker 6: of sovereignty which no democratic government could ever accept permanently
Speaker 6: with us.
Speaker 2: Robert T. Kaplin has booked The Loom of Time, my
Speaker 2: book of the year last year. Robert kaplan to continue
Speaker 2: this discussion. I think that Paul, I don't want to
Speaker 2: speak for you. I'll speak for myself on a Mike
Speaker 2: an off mic. I'm getting one theme. If we could
Speaker 2: just get rid of mister Netnaho, what does Israel look
Speaker 2: like the morning after mister Netna who exits.
Speaker 6: I think the morning after mister n'atagne who exits, you
Speaker 6: will see the same policy more or less supplied in Gaza.
Speaker 6: Uh you know, a determination to fit to kill off
Speaker 6: those or to defeat those last six or eight battalions
Speaker 6: of Hamas and southern Gaza in the Rafach area, the
Speaker 6: desire to keep pressing militarily to kill off the Hamas leadership,
Speaker 6: the desire to again restore sovereignty through in northern Israel,
Speaker 6: through if necessary, a war with Hezballah. I think that
Speaker 6: I think a lot of us have been, you know,
Speaker 6: are living in a dream world that the policy is
Speaker 6: going to suddenly shift forty five or ninety degrees in
Speaker 6: a direction because of the end of Netanyahu. I think
Speaker 6: the fundamental you know, war policy will continue, though it
Speaker 6: will take on a much more diplomatic guise.
Speaker 3: Robert, I guess that one of the many risks in
Speaker 3: that part of the world is a more direct confrontation
Speaker 3: between the US and Iran. What's the risk of that
Speaker 3: and how does the US position itself there?
Speaker 6: Of course there's a strong risk. Keep in mind that
Speaker 6: neither the US nor the Iranians want a major war
Speaker 6: but between each other, and I think the and I
Speaker 6: don't even think the Iranians won a major war directly
Speaker 6: with Israel. You know, there will be a lot of
Speaker 6: tit for tat going on. Remember, the Iranian government is
Speaker 6: enormously unpopular in its own country. One thing you have
Speaker 6: not seen so far since October seventh is massive pro
Speaker 6: Palestinian demonstrations in Iran itself because they couldn't happen because
Speaker 6: the population is not where the regime is, and a
Speaker 6: major war with the United States would only make the
Speaker 6: regime even that much more unpopular and would risk toppling
Speaker 6: the regime altogether.
Speaker 2: Robert Kavlin, thank you for joining us on short notice.
Speaker 2: Today's book Definitive can't say enough about the chapter on Turkey,
Speaker 2: on Constantinople and mister erin Awa. Now you daily look
Speaker 2: at the front pages around the world. So pap in
Speaker 2: College Station, Texas and this goes back a few years.
Speaker 2: The Aggies are playing the Center College praying colonels in
Speaker 2: the Dixie Classic in nineteen twenty two, and to make
Speaker 2: a long story short, a twelfth man came out in
Speaker 2: the field. Really and save that, I swear, And they
Speaker 2: like to have a statue that. Just one night Jess
Speaker 2: met and was so drunk she passed out near the statue.
Speaker 2: It's a twelfth man statue. Joining us now the official
Speaker 2: twelfth Man surveillance. Jeffs met in Fighting Texas, agging to
Speaker 2: help out with the newspapers. Jess, thanks so much for
Speaker 2: being here. Lisa, what do you have today.
Speaker 7: Note, Okay, remember we were here about the California law
Speaker 7: about fast food workers, right, increase their minimum page.
Speaker 2: Forty dollars twellar an hour.
Speaker 7: That's what they're making. This for fast food places with
Speaker 7: more than sixty locations. But now because of this business insider,
Speaker 7: they crunch the numbers. They're saying California's could pay a
Speaker 7: heck of a lot more for their Starbucks. Okay, So
Speaker 7: they did the numbers. They said starting April, first menu
Speaker 7: items they increased fifty cents to as much as a
Speaker 7: dollar each by comparing their receipts. Okay, and Starbucks did
Speaker 7: confirm they raise the prices, but they didn't say by
Speaker 7: how much. So they did the math. If you go
Speaker 7: for your normal Starbucks and the price increase order is
Speaker 7: let's say eighty cents, Multiply that by two hundred and
Speaker 7: sixty drinks, okay, and now you can expect to pay
Speaker 7: more than two hundred dollars more a year for that
Speaker 7: little daily indulgence of that Starbucks drink.
Speaker 4: So is it just.
Speaker 2: Twenty bucks an hour at fast foods? Or does this
Speaker 2: change the world For Mel's Diner on Sunset Boulevard.
Speaker 7: This is fast food workers again, flood workers, but they
Speaker 7: have to have more than sixty locations.
Speaker 3: That's a Starbucks person.
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm off and on. It depends what's
Speaker 1: your drink when you go to Starbucks. I like a
Speaker 1: ChIL Yes, but I feel like.
Speaker 2: You're a fan as I One of my offspring, the
Speaker 2: middle child. The middle child got a special brass card
Speaker 2: from Starbucks. He spent so much money. Yeah, I don't
Speaker 2: know what it got it twenty bucks an hour? Yeah yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm seriously Jolana a McDonald's. That's like twenty
Speaker 2: people at the time.
Speaker 3: And what are they that they're gonna pass along to consumers?
Speaker 2: So what does it do to the number two value meal?
Speaker 2: I mean, all of a sudden, you're twenty bucks for
Speaker 2: a burger. That's where we go next.
Speaker 7: Its crazy, Okay, NC State it's DJ Burns. You know,
Speaker 7: we were talking about him. We love him, We love him. Right,
Speaker 7: he's actually getting some NFL interest, So what do you
Speaker 7: switch basketball? He's six foot nine, he weighs two hundred
Speaker 7: and seventy five pounds. Okay, so he's starting to catch
Speaker 7: the eye of these basketball fans. NFL executives are looking
Speaker 7: the question is could he make the switch from sports
Speaker 7: at that pro level, you know, succeed on the offensive tackle.
Speaker 7: He actually talked about it yesterday in an interview. He
Speaker 7: said he would not rule out exploring a career in
Speaker 7: basketball and football, but he said he's trying to make
Speaker 7: NBA the plan.
Speaker 3: He's I think, I think he has a future in
Speaker 3: the NBA. But nobody really knew him before this big
Speaker 3: run here. But if you look at him, he can
Speaker 3: score down low, he can pass really well. They run
Speaker 3: the offense through this guy, believe it or not. So
Speaker 3: I give him a shot.
Speaker 2: Okay, sitting here as a shock compare right, Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 2: is he likes shot?
Speaker 3: But if I'm this guy, why would I want to
Speaker 3: get my brains beat in on the football field as
Speaker 3: opposed to just playing hoops. So we'll see how it goes.
Speaker 2: I don't know. Yeah, he's still in the final four. Yea,
Speaker 2: yeah saying I'm in the final four.
Speaker 3: No, we're still we're still worried about next year's next Wow.
Speaker 7: Okay, our neck ties making a comeback. This was in
Speaker 7: the Wall Street Journal. So you see presidents like they
Speaker 7: increasingly don't wear them, neither new CEOs. You see them
Speaker 7: when they sit down for some interviews. There was a
Speaker 7: big fundraiser last week President Joe Biden, Bill Clinton brought Upama.
Speaker 7: They did not wear neck tiestorialized.
Speaker 2: Please, Sweeney looks out as central casting. I mean the girls.
Speaker 2: It's like when George in the building circle this change Sweeney.
Speaker 2: It works. If I came in looking like Sweeney, just
Speaker 2: what do you think? I look like a mora?
Speaker 1: I have to point out though whole Sweeney is like
Speaker 1: the fashion police here at Bloomberg Friday will call people out.
Speaker 3: Neckties are are sandals allowed in the workplace? That is
Speaker 3: a hard no face.
Speaker 7: And pajama pants.
Speaker 2: This is why sandals or sandals with socks. Michael Dart
Speaker 2: is wearing socks. What do you think that?
Speaker 1: Let's go with neither, Let's go let's go.
Speaker 7: Okay, one the bow tie, where does that come in?
Speaker 1: I mean the boies. A classic handful of people can
Speaker 1: carry that and obviously to pull it off.
Speaker 2: Goodness, don't know.
Speaker 7: I got one more zinger for you. Okay, couples, I
Speaker 7: gotta be honest straight out. I'm still reading the article
Speaker 7: as we get to it right now, But couples, they
Speaker 7: are trading those restless nights. They're going for dual primary
Speaker 7: bedrooms because they need each need their own abode for
Speaker 7: their personal space sor because I have to admit, yes,
Speaker 7: my husband does snore and sometimes he gets booted to
Speaker 7: my son's room because my son's not there right now.
Speaker 2: This snore room.
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna outfit a second bedroom and have them split.
Speaker 2: That's not good.
Speaker 7: Yeah, but some people do that. They're making their own
Speaker 7: his and hers bedrooms.
Speaker 2: Versailles. When we went to Paris to Versailles, it was
Speaker 2: a lovely body and they gave it. They really it
Speaker 2: was really lovely. The lines were like are you kidding me?
Speaker 2: And they have snore room verside.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Lord of the Sixteenth just couldn't do it. And Marie said, building,
Speaker 2: it's like it's like a wing away through the hall
Speaker 2: of mirrors as well, Chess, let's talk about softball at Texas.
Speaker 2: A and A am crushing Prairie View with the no
Speaker 2: hitter yesterday. It's like gospel down there, isn't it?
Speaker 1: It definitely is. And I mean everybody always wants to
Speaker 1: think of football. Obviously, we were coming up kind of
Speaker 1: a challenging season this last year. Obviously we don't have anybody.
Speaker 2: Here's the money, here's the money question. This is a
Speaker 2: newspaper question with Jess Metton. How come one of the
Speaker 2: best oceanography schools in the world is in the middle
Speaker 2: of nowhere in Texas.
Speaker 1: I mean it's under the radar, but people should pay
Speaker 1: more attention.
Speaker 2: Why not out there? Would you have any equity wisdom today?
Speaker 2: You're usually everything.
Speaker 1: I actually just did. I did the technicals on Apple stocks,
Speaker 1: so it's getting closed to the intra day low around
Speaker 1: one sixty five from October's just getting yes exactly. So
Speaker 1: that's the key support level right there. So a lot
Speaker 1: of technicians feel like maybe the worst of the pain
Speaker 1: could potentially be passed after Apple came off of it.
Speaker 2: In Tesla right now.
Speaker 1: Oh, actually, Esha Day has a story that just came
Speaker 1: out watching on that particular stock. So if you should
Speaker 1: go to her bio page for Esha Day, so that
Speaker 1: breaks it down and looking at it.
Speaker 3: That's how you find print make or break level and
Speaker 3: latest wipeout market cogency one fiftieth support to.
Speaker 2: Once you by for Apple and then thank you to
Speaker 2: your people for scheduling you in here.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I want to buy and you
Speaker 1: told me to come in.
Speaker 2: Jess Manton, thank you so much. Careful with Bloomberg Market.
Speaker 2: It's like, really brilliant work. This is off the radar.
Speaker 2: It's for the Terminal, the Bloomberg Professional Service. It's a
Speaker 2: whole team of uh A maniacs like just Matt and
Speaker 2: twenty four to seven writing a focus on the week mark,
Speaker 2: on the weekness. That's Paul seven. Yes, there, you got
Speaker 2: nailed it for me. That's like, okay, you think I
Speaker 2: should take the bow tie off.
Speaker 7: Lisa, No, you have to keep it. That's your trademark.
Speaker 2: Okay, okay. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you
Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You
Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday
Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global
Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio,
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.