1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Let's get 11 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 2: right to it. Let me give you the history of 12 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:49,880 Speaker 2: Paul's going to bring him in. Matt was Zaddi with 13 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 2: Deutsche Bank and the team over there absolutely nailed a 14 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: graceful recession called years ago that came out and they said, 15 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 2: you know, there's going to be a recession off the pandemic. 16 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 2: But the first day they said it, Paul, they said, 17 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:04,960 Speaker 2: we don't know when, and they had a huge humility 18 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 2: at the time, trying not to cherry pick the gloom 19 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 2: of recession. And so there we are. Is it really 20 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 2: hasn't happened stimulus and you know, an update here as 21 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 2: we go into all this labor data, why don't you 22 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:17,839 Speaker 2: bring in mister Lozetti exactly? 23 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 3: The economic data has been solid, inflation coming down. It's 24 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 3: a you know what question is it a soft landing? 25 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 3: Matt Lazetti joins us. He's a chief US economist for 26 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 3: Deutsche Bank. The last time I saw him, Tom was 27 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 3: in the Veil airport and I said, Hey, how was 28 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:32,759 Speaker 3: your skiing? He didn't ski, he was at there for business. 29 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 4: Oh yeah, who does that? 30 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 3: I mean immediately I took my I vote away from them. 31 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 3: You know so, Matt, thanks so much for joining us. 32 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 3: Here is Thom was saying, here this economy, I guess 33 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 3: what do you guys make of a Deutsche Bank? I 34 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 3: think most people, the marketplace broadly defined, is pleasantly surprised 35 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 3: about the US economy, particularly relative to other parts of 36 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:52,279 Speaker 3: the world. 37 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 5: You have to be pleasantly surprised. I think if you 38 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 5: look back to twenty twenty three, it was the best 39 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 5: possible outcome for the economy, the best possible outcome from 40 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 5: the Fed's perspective. You had above three percent real GDP growth, 41 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 5: You had the unemployment rate down to three point seven percent, 42 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 5: and over the back half of last year, you had 43 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,079 Speaker 5: core PC inflation, which is what the FED focus is on, 44 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 5: below two percent. That was a remarkable outcome I think 45 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 5: for a FED that raised rates by over five hundred 46 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,239 Speaker 5: basis points that was undertaking a very aggressive QT outcome. 47 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 4: Question is you know. 48 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 5: Where do we go from here? We still now continue 49 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 5: to see this very resilient economy continuing, the labor market 50 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 5: looking resilient. Will get an update with data this week. 51 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 5: Key question will be, especially from the Fed's perspective, how 52 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:33,959 Speaker 5: much of the disinflation trend that we got last year 53 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 5: continues or is the strong inflation prints that we got 54 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 5: over January and February is that a new trend that 55 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 5: work that we're seeing that How to Fed strap about that, because. 56 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 3: That's probably one of the forefront issues for the market, 57 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 3: is boy, that are we seeing a resurgence in inflation? 58 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 5: What do you guys think? Yeah, so you have to 59 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 5: acknowledge I think January was a very strong inflation print, 60 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 5: and when we got data last week, core PC was 61 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 5: actually revised a little bit higher. February was better, but 62 00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 5: not good enough. From the Fed's perspective, I think when 63 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 5: you look at the components that drove it, shelter inflation 64 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 5: both in January and February was higher than anticipated. You know, 65 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 5: we do continue to expect that will come down. We 66 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 5: have these private sector estimates of rents that have come 67 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 5: down a lot, So I think that's still going to happen, 68 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 5: but it's more uncertain than it was three months ago. 69 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 5: And you know, when you look at these other core 70 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 5: services items, there was actually a lot of disinflation in 71 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 5: them in the February date. I thought that was a 72 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 5: good data point from the Fed's perspective in terms of 73 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,079 Speaker 5: supercore The morning after. 74 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 2: The invasion of Ukraine by mister Putin, David Folkertslando of 75 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 2: Deutsche Bank was adamant that we would see government stimulus, 76 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 2: we would see fiscal policy across Europe and across the world. 77 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 2: Clearly we've seen that in the United States. Is this 78 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 2: great underestimation of our boom economy? Is it just because 79 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 2: of the three stimuli we had? 80 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 5: No, I think it is absolutely part of it. If 81 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 5: you look at the budget deficit last year relatively the 82 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 5: unemployment rate, we were running a very loose fiscal policy 83 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 5: relative to the stance of the economy not the only thing. 84 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 5: I think we've seen greater focus on the supply side 85 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 5: of the economy, especially from the FED, and there's great 86 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 5: work from Brookings the CBO recently just looking at net 87 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 5: immigration flows, how much that added to labor the labor 88 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 5: market over the past year. And was this really positive 89 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 5: supply side story for the economy. I think it allowed 90 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:21,160 Speaker 5: us to have strong growth, but disinflation as part of that. 91 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 5: And then you just have to say that the Fed's 92 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,360 Speaker 5: monetary policy tightening was probably just had less traction than anticipated. 93 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 5: You know, markets didn't crumble as much as I would 94 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,359 Speaker 5: have thought under a five percent FED funds rate, people 95 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 5: were able to lock in low interest rates, and mortgage 96 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 5: debt ratios are still quite low. 97 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 2: Where was your real nominal GDP run rate right now, 98 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 2: you know, going out three four quarters? 99 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 5: So I think if you look at what I think 100 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 5: potential growth is for the economy, at least in the 101 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 5: near term, I think it's probably closer to and a 102 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 5: quarter or so. I think it's meaningfully above what the 103 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 5: FED has real GDP potential. Now, I think that there's 104 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 5: there's obviously lots of it turned here on that the 105 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 5: labor supply story has been really important there. But I 106 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 5: think there's a really constructive productivity growth story for the 107 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 5: US economy if you look over the next several years. 108 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 6: Now. 109 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 4: Part of that could. 110 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 5: Certainly be AI. We as a house are very constructive 111 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 5: on AI, but I think there's a lot of uncertainty 112 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 5: in quantifying that. The reason to be positive is that 113 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 5: you typically see tight labor markets followed by very strong 114 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 5: productivity growth. And the idea is that firms are forced 115 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 5: to do capital deepening. Do cap X find productivity enhands 116 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 5: in those projects? 117 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 2: We call that the Boston red SOX. 118 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:32,479 Speaker 3: Right, So, Matt, given that backdrop, Matt, what's our federal 119 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 3: reserve going to do? I mean, I don't know. We 120 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 3: started the year thinking six rate cuts, and now we're 121 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 3: pricing less than I don't know, three, maybe a little 122 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 3: bit less than three. How do you guys think about that? 123 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, so we have them cutting first in June. I 124 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 5: think what we've heard almost uniformly from Fed officials is 125 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 5: that they're not in a rush today, and they're not 126 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 5: in a rush today, both because the economy is hanging 127 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 5: in better than anticipated and so there's no urgency to cut, 128 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 5: but also because inflation has surprised the upside, so there's 129 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 5: greater uncertainty about the inflation trend. I think if you 130 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 5: get softter inflation prints over the next few months, the 131 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 5: FED probably does cut in June. But I think the 132 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 5: bigger question will be what does this overall cutting profile 133 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 5: look like. And I think there's a very strong case 134 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 5: to be made that perhaps the FED only does two 135 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 5: or three insurance cuts. We think of it as a 136 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 5: little bit more of a mid cycle adjustment, and that 137 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 5: any cuts beyond that become a lot more uncertain. 138 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:23,279 Speaker 2: This is a great half far I got. Matt Lazzetti 139 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 2: was the Deutsche Bank, and then Edward Morse will join 140 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 2: US Emeritis City Group with his new effort in looking 141 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 2: at geo politics and oil. I want to link the 142 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 2: two together. Deutsche Bank fifteen twenty years ago on the 143 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 2: high ground on oil analysis, it was Adam Saminsky and 144 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 2: Paul Sank Nobody world what everybody read it? Everybody read 145 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 2: the Deutsche Bank Excel spreadsheets on supply and demand. What 146 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:50,279 Speaker 2: does ninety dollars brent crude mean to you? How does 147 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 2: that change the American calculus of oil? 148 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 5: To be honest, I don't think it changes it all 149 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 5: that much. You know, I think as we think about 150 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,720 Speaker 5: from a growth perspective, at least from a downside risk perspective, 151 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 5: it's usually oil price shocks that drives that, and so 152 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 5: you need to break out of what a recent range 153 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 5: has been. Ninety dollars is still within the recent range 154 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 5: over the past several years. The economy is very different 155 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 5: than it was ten years ago. Okay, so it's not 156 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 5: just about how it impacts the US consumer and disposed income. 157 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 5: But you do have shale, you have net exports. 158 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 2: Well, but you model out like JP Morgan, do you 159 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 2: model out that if you get an emerging market boom, 160 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:31,239 Speaker 2: you get oil well over one hundred even out to one. 161 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 5: Sure, you know, I think it's it's certainly possible that 162 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 5: you get there. What drives that is really important for 163 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 5: the economy. So if it is a supply side driven story, 164 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 5: then that acts as a shock that's more negative for growth. 165 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 5: If it is organically driven by stronger demand, you know 166 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 5: certainly that that can weigh on US consumers, but overall 167 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 5: it's a less negative story for you. 168 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 2: I get twenty seconds. It is a true Villanova's looking 169 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 2: at you to sell it as a basketball. 170 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 5: No I don't think so. 171 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 2: Okay, that was Odie, Thank you so much. Out of 172 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 2: Villanova and you see there with Deutsch and yes, Edward 173 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 2: Morse coming up in a moment, Tom King and Paul 174 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 2: Swiney worldwide right now. With Edward Morris definitive at citing 175 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 2: group for years. They threw him up. Jane called him up. 176 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 2: He went down to his office and said, I see you. Well, 177 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 2: that's not quite what happened. He's iconic in oil and 178 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 2: of course with a geopolitical study to it, has worked 179 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 2: with a consul and foreign relations and you know, I'm like, okay, 180 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 2: he can't retire. Where's he going to land? Yeah? And 181 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 2: what's so cool about hard training is this is Amorada 182 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 2: Hesse from a million years ago. And then oak Tree 183 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 2: Management took out Amarada's interest. So there's a heritage here 184 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 2: of global oil along with the intellectual acuity of oak Tree. 185 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 2: And they've picked up ed Morse because he was looking 186 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 2: for a job whereund and the doctor Morris joins us 187 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 2: this morning where Morres, congratulations on this new effort. I'm 188 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 2: glad to see you slow down to a sixty hour week. 189 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:10,559 Speaker 2: And where's the marginal geopolitical interest right now, Which region, 190 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:14,839 Speaker 2: which country, which part of Brent crude is the most 191 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 2: interest to. 192 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 4: Edward Morse, I think it really is the Middle East. 193 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 4: And it's the Middle East for obvious reasons, not just 194 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 4: because of what's happening in Israel, but the after math 195 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 4: of all of that, and struggles internally and externally involving 196 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 4: Iran and Iraq, and of course we've got Saudi Arabia, 197 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 4: which is along with Russia, leading the charge with opek plus. 198 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 4: So if you look at the politics of managing markets 199 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 4: and the risks to the management of markets, the Middle 200 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 4: East is the main focus. But you know, honestly, if 201 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:55,320 Speaker 4: you're trading in the Western Hemisphere and you're trading around 202 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 4: Houston and you look at a new Mexican refinery that's 203 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 4: likely to o that, you know, the sweet sour relationship 204 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 4: with the US Gulf Coast is also changing. So it 205 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 4: depends on where you are globally. It's really been the 206 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 4: least you know. 207 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 2: I was talking to Jane and I said, why'd you 208 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 2: let him go? I mean, he had the call of 209 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:14,439 Speaker 2: the pandemic. Everybody else Paul is looking for one hundred 210 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 2: and twenty dollars barrel oil and Morse is up on 211 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 2: the soapbox screen and no, you're wrong. We're going down 212 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 2: to sixty or seventy whatever it was at massive call 213 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: as well. Do you see pushing against that a nascent 214 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 2: global demand that gets us to this Brent crew ninety 215 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 2: or higher. 216 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 4: Well, I don't think it's the demand side, Tom, I 217 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 4: think it's really the supply side. I think it's a 218 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 4: combination of factors. On the supply side. That combination of 219 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:46,680 Speaker 4: factors is a restraint that major producers are having and 220 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 4: putting crude oil into the market, and the distortions in 221 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 4: the market that need to be worked out, and they 222 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 4: will be worked out that come from the blockages of 223 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 4: the Seuss Canal and leading. You know, Sumed pipeline is 224 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 4: the only way to really get sustainable flows into the 225 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 4: Med and out of the Med from the Middle East 226 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 4: and to the Middle East. So we're going to have, 227 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:11,080 Speaker 4: as we did with Russia Ukraine, working out of freight 228 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:15,839 Speaker 4: rates and working out of that distortion weighing on prices eventually, 229 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 4: And what we don't really know is what the response 230 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 4: is going to be on the demand side with respect 231 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 4: to buying oil from the Middle East and elsewhere. Particularly 232 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,719 Speaker 4: in China. We've got a country that has shifted its 233 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 4: gears as a major importer, shifting its skiers in terms 234 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 4: of deciding for geopolitical reasons, it's going to be building 235 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 4: a massive inventory. We reckoned roughly another five hundred million 236 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 4: barrels of storage capacity can be filled all of storage, 237 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 4: and China is strategic and the yet to high prices, 238 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 4: China is not only not going to be importing more 239 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 4: than they consume, they're going to be exporting. That's the 240 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 4: pattern that we've learned to anticipate that we should learn 241 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 4: to anticipate it as oil breaches ninety dollars, which looks 242 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,439 Speaker 4: like an almost certainty in the next couple of months. 243 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 3: And one of the things that is relatively new in 244 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 3: the global oil space is the fact that the US 245 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 3: has gone from being a net importer to a net exporter. 246 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 3: Why don't our friends done, and I don't know, Texas 247 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 3: and Oklahoma just start fracking some more oil. 248 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 4: Well, I think that's exactly what's going to happen. You 249 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 4: have several new incentives to fract more. One of them 250 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:31,040 Speaker 4: is where the price is, where the COVID curves are, 251 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 4: and where you can make money if you're a publicly 252 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 4: creded company by shifting to rapid response petroleum production. And 253 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 4: then there's on top of that the technological advances that 254 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 4: are being made. There are lots of talks on your 255 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 4: shows and others about the revolutionary impacts of artificial intelligence. 256 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 4: Artificial intelligence is also working its way into the oil patch, 257 00:12:56,160 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 4: and that artificial intelligence is bringing up productivity levels in 258 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 4: terms of how do you manage tracking crews, how you 259 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 4: manage track production or track utilization. And I think we're 260 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 4: going to see a response to that. We had basically 261 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 4: a worldwide webinar from SMP earlier in a few days 262 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 4: ago in which they said, you know, their their deck 263 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 4: deck increase in US production of eight hundred thousand barrels 264 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 4: a day may have to be revised upward because of 265 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 4: the high prices that we're now seeing. 266 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 3: So how about OPEK plus. What is the role of 267 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 3: OPEC plus now in the global marketplace? 268 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 4: Well, OPECK plus is a response to the failure of OPEK. 269 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:49,079 Speaker 4: OPEK and I have written about this a nauseam always 270 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 4: wrong that we're seeing the end of OPEC. But the 271 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 4: survival of OPEC dependent upon bringing in Russia and Central 272 00:13:56,520 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 4: Asian countries and other non OPEC members. They you know, 273 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 4: they've got a very big hold on the market. H 274 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 4: and then and their aim is to maximize revenues uh, 275 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 4: and not to maximize them too much where they get 276 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 4: a drop in oil demand. So uh, that's it. That's 277 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 4: its role. And they're going to stall as long as 278 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 4: they can to see where prices are going before you know, 279 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 4: lifting the thing. We will see whether they lift it 280 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 4: in June. 281 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 2: And I got two two minutes left. Do you drive 282 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 2: an electric car? Do you drive an electric car or 283 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 2: a hybrid? 284 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 4: I drive a Tesla? 285 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 2: You drive a Tesla? See I knew that well Ed 286 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 2: Morris on electric cars? Is the bloom off the rose? 287 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 2: Or do you think there's an immediate sustainability this say 288 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 2: President Biden would want an immediate sustainability. I see it 289 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 2: in the United Kingdom, I see it in Europe. Does 290 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 2: Edmore's think they're here to stay? Or is it one off? 291 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 2: And we go back to ye to uh the internal 292 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 2: combustion engine. 293 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 4: I doubt think we're going to see it rush back 294 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 4: the internal combustion engines. We may see a rush into 295 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 4: the hybrid vehicles. We're certainly seeing public policy in the 296 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 4: city that we live in or work in is one 297 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 4: where we're seeing delivery vans based on fossil fuels and 298 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 4: buses based purely on fossil fuels being eliminated, and hybrid 299 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 4: vehicles are certainly one way to go and on electric. 300 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 4: It depends on you which country you're in. China certainly 301 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 4: is seeing an end to gasoline demand because of their 302 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 4: ev policy. The US isn't because we're not short distance drivers. 303 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 4: We're long distance drivers, and drivers are awaiting technological change 304 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 4: to see a long and lasting battery in terms of 305 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 4: miles driven. But I can tell you it is the 306 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 4: most fun car I've ever driven, even better than the 307 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 4: MGS I used to drive. 308 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 2: There you go and yours. I can just see him 309 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 2: in the MGTD. Oh that was the one on the 310 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 2: wooden slats in the bottom. My father wouldn't let me 311 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 2: buy it. Ed Morris's father less short high one. Ed Morris, 312 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 2: wonderful to speak to. Congratulations on this important position at Hartree, 313 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 2: mister Morris, on our marginal barrel of oil. With the 314 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 2: shock of the Erdowuan losses in Turkey in municipal elections, 315 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 2: there is exactly oh one, two, maybe three experts I'd 316 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 2: want to talk to. But the most successible one for 317 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 2: you is my book of the year, The Loom of 318 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 2: Time for twenty twenty three. It transfix me. It is 319 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 2: Robert D. Klatt Kaplin doing what he's doing. He moves 320 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 2: from Morocco over to the various stands to the east. 321 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 2: It is a spectacular book. In chapter three we find 322 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 2: Robert T. Clatt Kaplan slowly walking around this architecturally complex 323 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 2: and monumental structure known as Constantinople. Robert Caplin, thank you 324 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 2: so much for joining us today. Is Airedwan done? 325 00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: No? 326 00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 6: First of all, it's a pleasure to be with you, 327 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 6: Tom No. One is not done. He's not up for 328 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,120 Speaker 6: re election for a number of years now. And look 329 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 6: at it this way. He's been in power twenty years. Yeah, 330 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 6: you don't stay in power for twenty years in a 331 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 6: partial or a full democracy without ultimately going downhill. So 332 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 6: he's still got some ammunition up his sleeve. And the 333 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 6: big question for Turkey though, is look imagine if Donald 334 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,879 Speaker 6: Trump had been in power in the United States for 335 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 6: twenty four years like Airdwan has, what would be the 336 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 6: state of institutions, the Justice Department, etc. Airediwan has destroyed 337 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 6: Turkish institutions. So the question for Turkey is even if 338 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 6: there is a new prime minister, a new president in 339 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 6: a few years like Imma Moglu who won the mayorship 340 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 6: of istam Bul the other day and a big victory, 341 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 6: even if he becomes prime minister, will there be institutions 342 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 6: to work with or will Turkey have a kind of 343 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 6: wiemar chaotic situation. 344 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,360 Speaker 2: Out of his childhood and is you know, the interesting 345 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 2: childhood of Aridiwana. In the twenty two years that he's 346 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 2: been the leader, his foreign policy has been to look 347 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 2: south and take his Islamic view across levant, across all 348 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 2: of your the loom of time, the arc of the 349 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 2: Middle East. Is he diminished in his influence in the 350 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 2: Middle East now because of these election losses? 351 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 6: Yet yes, he is. You lose this big in a 352 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 6: nationwide election, which is what this really was. He not 353 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 6: only lost in Istanbul, he lost across the country. This 354 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 6: lowers his credibility throughout the region, which was never you know, 355 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:50,439 Speaker 6: which was problematic to begin with because the major mistake 356 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 6: he made a long time ago was to back the 357 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 6: radicals in the Middle East, not the conservative Sunni Arab regimes. 358 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 6: So it wasn't as if he was pro Arab and 359 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 6: anti Israel. He was pro radical Arab and as a result, 360 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 6: he misread the region. 361 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,440 Speaker 3: All right, speaking of another region of the world, let's 362 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 3: go to Asia. President. President. She spoke by phone about 363 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 3: a number of key issues here, Robert, where how do 364 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,439 Speaker 3: you view that part of the world right now? And 365 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,120 Speaker 3: the US role and how the US should act over 366 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 3: the coming months and quarters and maybe a year. 367 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 6: I think between now and the election and next November, 368 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 6: the Biden administration is going to try to orchestrate a 369 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 6: rap pro schmat with China because that will look good 370 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 6: in elections, you know, you know, lower the talk of conflict, 371 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 6: you know, stabilize the relationship, that will look good with voters. 372 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:54,720 Speaker 6: And also the relationship has gotten so toxic, so so dangerous, 373 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 6: that something has to be done. 374 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 2: You know. 375 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:01,160 Speaker 6: The markets, financial markets have priced in war in Ukraine, 376 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 6: they've priced in Gaza, all of that nicely. But if 377 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 6: there were ever a real shooting war between the two 378 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 6: the world's two largest economies, in a high end military conflict, 379 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 6: it would be devastating for financial markets, absolutely devastating. And 380 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 6: that's if the war only lasted a few days. It 381 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 6: could go on longer. So it's imperative of the Biden 382 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 6: administration now I think the Chinese authorities as well, not 383 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 6: to solve their problems, but to build a parameter around them, 384 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 6: to build rules of the road so that the so 385 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 6: that the downward turn in relations is at least stabilized. 386 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 3: Robert again, there's so many ways we could go here, 387 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 3: we have limited time. Let's switch gears yet again, go 388 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:54,639 Speaker 3: to the Middle East. It appears that Israel is just 389 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 3: not backing down on any sneer exactly, Tommy exactly. And 390 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 3: it seems like the Biden inistration and others are growing 391 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 3: a little weary of Israel's position here. 392 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 2: Where are we there? 393 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 6: We are? We are in essentially a war with Iran 394 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:16,880 Speaker 6: that started on October seventh. The October seventh atrocities were 395 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 6: so be steel, they were so intimate that I believe 396 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 6: it changed the Israeli calculus on how to deal with Iran. 397 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 6: And we saw an example of this the other day 398 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 6: where they where they killed a number of Iranian generals. 399 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 6: This is going to go on because October seventh, even 400 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 6: if the Iranians were not directly implicated, they were fundamentally 401 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 6: implicated because they had been supporting Hamas for so many years. 402 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 6: So we're in a proxy war with Iran. For the moment, 403 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 6: it's in Gaza. I think this summer it will move 404 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 6: northward to southern to northern Israel, southern Lebanon, because you know, 405 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 6: Israel as about eighty thousand citizens who cannot return to 406 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 6: their homes in northern Israel. That's a de facto loss 407 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 6: of sovereignty which no democratic government could ever accept permanently 408 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 6: with us. 409 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,679 Speaker 2: Robert T. Kaplin has booked The Loom of Time, my 410 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 2: book of the year last year. Robert kaplan to continue 411 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,119 Speaker 2: this discussion. I think that Paul, I don't want to 412 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 2: speak for you. I'll speak for myself on a Mike 413 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 2: an off mic. I'm getting one theme. If we could 414 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 2: just get rid of mister Netnaho, what does Israel look 415 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 2: like the morning after mister Netna who exits. 416 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,879 Speaker 6: I think the morning after mister n'atagne who exits, you 417 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 6: will see the same policy more or less supplied in Gaza. 418 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 6: Uh you know, a determination to fit to kill off 419 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:55,000 Speaker 6: those or to defeat those last six or eight battalions 420 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 6: of Hamas and southern Gaza in the Rafach area, the 421 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 6: desire to keep pressing militarily to kill off the Hamas leadership, 422 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 6: the desire to again restore sovereignty through in northern Israel, 423 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:15,639 Speaker 6: through if necessary, a war with Hezballah. I think that 424 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 6: I think a lot of us have been, you know, 425 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,199 Speaker 6: are living in a dream world that the policy is 426 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,919 Speaker 6: going to suddenly shift forty five or ninety degrees in 427 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 6: a direction because of the end of Netanyahu. I think 428 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 6: the fundamental you know, war policy will continue, though it 429 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,720 Speaker 6: will take on a much more diplomatic guise. 430 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,399 Speaker 3: Robert, I guess that one of the many risks in 431 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 3: that part of the world is a more direct confrontation 432 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 3: between the US and Iran. What's the risk of that 433 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 3: and how does the US position itself there? 434 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 6: Of course there's a strong risk. Keep in mind that 435 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:59,720 Speaker 6: neither the US nor the Iranians want a major war 436 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 6: but between each other, and I think the and I 437 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,440 Speaker 6: don't even think the Iranians won a major war directly 438 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 6: with Israel. You know, there will be a lot of 439 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,679 Speaker 6: tit for tat going on. Remember, the Iranian government is 440 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 6: enormously unpopular in its own country. One thing you have 441 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 6: not seen so far since October seventh is massive pro 442 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 6: Palestinian demonstrations in Iran itself because they couldn't happen because 443 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 6: the population is not where the regime is, and a 444 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 6: major war with the United States would only make the 445 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 6: regime even that much more unpopular and would risk toppling 446 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:40,360 Speaker 6: the regime altogether. 447 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 2: Robert Kavlin, thank you for joining us on short notice. 448 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,640 Speaker 2: Today's book Definitive can't say enough about the chapter on Turkey, 449 00:24:47,040 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 2: on Constantinople and mister erin Awa. Now you daily look 450 00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 2: at the front pages around the world. So pap in 451 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 2: College Station, Texas and this goes back a few years. 452 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 2: The Aggies are playing the Center College praying colonels in 453 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 2: the Dixie Classic in nineteen twenty two, and to make 454 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,119 Speaker 2: a long story short, a twelfth man came out in 455 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 2: the field. Really and save that, I swear, And they 456 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 2: like to have a statue that. Just one night Jess 457 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 2: met and was so drunk she passed out near the statue. 458 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 2: It's a twelfth man statue. Joining us now the official 459 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 2: twelfth Man surveillance. Jeffs met in Fighting Texas, agging to 460 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 2: help out with the newspapers. Jess, thanks so much for 461 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 2: being here. Lisa, what do you have today. 462 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 7: Note, Okay, remember we were here about the California law 463 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 7: about fast food workers, right, increase their minimum page. 464 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,120 Speaker 2: Forty dollars twellar an hour. 465 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 7: That's what they're making. This for fast food places with 466 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 7: more than sixty locations. But now because of this business insider, 467 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,720 Speaker 7: they crunch the numbers. They're saying California's could pay a 468 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,639 Speaker 7: heck of a lot more for their Starbucks. Okay, So 469 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 7: they did the numbers. They said starting April, first menu 470 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,879 Speaker 7: items they increased fifty cents to as much as a 471 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,680 Speaker 7: dollar each by comparing their receipts. Okay, and Starbucks did 472 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 7: confirm they raise the prices, but they didn't say by 473 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 7: how much. So they did the math. If you go 474 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,920 Speaker 7: for your normal Starbucks and the price increase order is 475 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,359 Speaker 7: let's say eighty cents, Multiply that by two hundred and 476 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 7: sixty drinks, okay, and now you can expect to pay 477 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,080 Speaker 7: more than two hundred dollars more a year for that 478 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 7: little daily indulgence of that Starbucks drink. 479 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:33,480 Speaker 4: So is it just. 480 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,240 Speaker 2: Twenty bucks an hour at fast foods? Or does this 481 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,639 Speaker 2: change the world For Mel's Diner on Sunset Boulevard. 482 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 7: This is fast food workers again, flood workers, but they 483 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 7: have to have more than sixty locations. 484 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,359 Speaker 3: That's a Starbucks person. 485 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,000 Speaker 1: I feel like I'm off and on. It depends what's 486 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:50,440 Speaker 1: your drink when you go to Starbucks. I like a 487 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 1: ChIL Yes, but I feel like. 488 00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:00,240 Speaker 2: You're a fan as I One of my offspring, the 489 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:04,040 Speaker 2: middle child. The middle child got a special brass card 490 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:07,320 Speaker 2: from Starbucks. He spent so much money. Yeah, I don't 491 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:10,680 Speaker 2: know what it got it twenty bucks an hour? Yeah yeah, 492 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:15,119 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm seriously Jolana a McDonald's. That's like twenty 493 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:15,880 Speaker 2: people at the time. 494 00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 3: And what are they that they're gonna pass along to consumers? 495 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 2: So what does it do to the number two value meal? 496 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:21,960 Speaker 2: I mean, all of a sudden, you're twenty bucks for 497 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 2: a burger. That's where we go next. 498 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,639 Speaker 7: Its crazy, Okay, NC State it's DJ Burns. You know, 499 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:28,880 Speaker 7: we were talking about him. We love him, We love him. Right, 500 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,240 Speaker 7: he's actually getting some NFL interest, So what do you 501 00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:36,119 Speaker 7: switch basketball? He's six foot nine, he weighs two hundred 502 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 7: and seventy five pounds. Okay, so he's starting to catch 503 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 7: the eye of these basketball fans. NFL executives are looking 504 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,959 Speaker 7: the question is could he make the switch from sports 505 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,439 Speaker 7: at that pro level, you know, succeed on the offensive tackle. 506 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,000 Speaker 7: He actually talked about it yesterday in an interview. He 507 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,720 Speaker 7: said he would not rule out exploring a career in 508 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,360 Speaker 7: basketball and football, but he said he's trying to make 509 00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 7: NBA the plan. 510 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,200 Speaker 3: He's I think, I think he has a future in 511 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,160 Speaker 3: the NBA. But nobody really knew him before this big 512 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 3: run here. But if you look at him, he can 513 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 3: score down low, he can pass really well. They run 514 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 3: the offense through this guy, believe it or not. So 515 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 3: I give him a shot. 516 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 2: Okay, sitting here as a shock compare right, Yeah, I mean, 517 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 2: is he likes shot? 518 00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 3: But if I'm this guy, why would I want to 519 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 3: get my brains beat in on the football field as 520 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,800 Speaker 3: opposed to just playing hoops. So we'll see how it goes. 521 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,399 Speaker 2: I don't know. Yeah, he's still in the final four. Yea, 522 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,840 Speaker 2: yeah saying I'm in the final four. 523 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 3: No, we're still we're still worried about next year's next Wow. 524 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:45,960 Speaker 7: Okay, our neck ties making a comeback. This was in 525 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 7: the Wall Street Journal. So you see presidents like they 526 00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 7: increasingly don't wear them, neither new CEOs. You see them 527 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 7: when they sit down for some interviews. There was a 528 00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 7: big fundraiser last week President Joe Biden, Bill Clinton brought Upama. 529 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 7: They did not wear neck tiestorialized. 530 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 2: Please, Sweeney looks out as central casting. I mean the girls. 531 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 2: It's like when George in the building circle this change Sweeney. 532 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,480 Speaker 2: It works. If I came in looking like Sweeney, just 533 00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 2: what do you think? I look like a mora? 534 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 1: I have to point out though whole Sweeney is like 535 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 1: the fashion police here at Bloomberg Friday will call people out. 536 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 3: Neckties are are sandals allowed in the workplace? That is 537 00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 3: a hard no face. 538 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:34,320 Speaker 7: And pajama pants. 539 00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 2: This is why sandals or sandals with socks. Michael Dart 540 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 2: is wearing socks. What do you think that? 541 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,400 Speaker 1: Let's go with neither, Let's go let's go. 542 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 7: Okay, one the bow tie, where does that come in? 543 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:51,880 Speaker 1: I mean the boies. A classic handful of people can 544 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:53,840 Speaker 1: carry that and obviously to pull it off. 545 00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 2: Goodness, don't know. 546 00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 7: I got one more zinger for you. Okay, couples, I 547 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:04,240 Speaker 7: gotta be honest straight out. I'm still reading the article 548 00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 7: as we get to it right now, But couples, they 549 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 7: are trading those restless nights. They're going for dual primary 550 00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 7: bedrooms because they need each need their own abode for 551 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:18,480 Speaker 7: their personal space sor because I have to admit, yes, 552 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 7: my husband does snore and sometimes he gets booted to 553 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 7: my son's room because my son's not there right now. 554 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 2: This snore room. 555 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:29,880 Speaker 3: I'm not gonna outfit a second bedroom and have them split. 556 00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:30,720 Speaker 2: That's not good. 557 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,360 Speaker 7: Yeah, but some people do that. They're making their own 558 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 7: his and hers bedrooms. 559 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:39,480 Speaker 2: Versailles. When we went to Paris to Versailles, it was 560 00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:41,440 Speaker 2: a lovely body and they gave it. They really it 561 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 2: was really lovely. The lines were like are you kidding me? 562 00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:46,880 Speaker 2: And they have snore room verside. 563 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 4: Yeah. 564 00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 2: Lord of the Sixteenth just couldn't do it. And Marie said, building, 565 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 2: it's like it's like a wing away through the hall 566 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 2: of mirrors as well, Chess, let's talk about softball at Texas. 567 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 2: A and A am crushing Prairie View with the no 568 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 2: hitter yesterday. It's like gospel down there, isn't it? 569 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 1: It definitely is. And I mean everybody always wants to 570 00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 1: think of football. Obviously, we were coming up kind of 571 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,360 Speaker 1: a challenging season this last year. Obviously we don't have anybody. 572 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:15,840 Speaker 2: Here's the money, here's the money question. This is a 573 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 2: newspaper question with Jess Metton. How come one of the 574 00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:23,080 Speaker 2: best oceanography schools in the world is in the middle 575 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:24,400 Speaker 2: of nowhere in Texas. 576 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 1: I mean it's under the radar, but people should pay 577 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 1: more attention. 578 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,040 Speaker 2: Why not out there? Would you have any equity wisdom today? 579 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 2: You're usually everything. 580 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 1: I actually just did. I did the technicals on Apple stocks, 581 00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,280 Speaker 1: so it's getting closed to the intra day low around 582 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 1: one sixty five from October's just getting yes exactly. So 583 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,520 Speaker 1: that's the key support level right there. So a lot 584 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 1: of technicians feel like maybe the worst of the pain 585 00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 1: could potentially be passed after Apple came off of it. 586 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 2: In Tesla right now. 587 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 1: Oh, actually, Esha Day has a story that just came 588 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 1: out watching on that particular stock. So if you should 589 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 1: go to her bio page for Esha Day, so that 590 00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 1: breaks it down and looking at it. 591 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 3: That's how you find print make or break level and 592 00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 3: latest wipeout market cogency one fiftieth support to. 593 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,280 Speaker 2: Once you by for Apple and then thank you to 594 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:12,320 Speaker 2: your people for scheduling you in here. 595 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,120 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I want to buy and you 596 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 1: told me to come in. 597 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 2: Jess Manton, thank you so much. Careful with Bloomberg Market. 598 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,680 Speaker 2: It's like, really brilliant work. This is off the radar. 599 00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:27,320 Speaker 2: It's for the Terminal, the Bloomberg Professional Service. It's a 600 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,800 Speaker 2: whole team of uh A maniacs like just Matt and 601 00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,920 Speaker 2: twenty four to seven writing a focus on the week mark, 602 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 2: on the weekness. That's Paul seven. Yes, there, you got 603 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,480 Speaker 2: nailed it for me. That's like, okay, you think I 604 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:42,840 Speaker 2: should take the bow tie off. 605 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,520 Speaker 7: Lisa, No, you have to keep it. That's your trademark. 606 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:51,120 Speaker 2: Okay, okay. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you 607 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 608 00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 609 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:03,960 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 610 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,000 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 611 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 612 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:15,600 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, 613 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.