1 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodski. Thank 2 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: you for being here this week. As always, I'm one 3 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:11,760 Speaker 1: of my listeners that all the data on this podcast 4 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: will be up on my substack and go read it 5 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 1: and go to nappopnewsletter dot com for thirty day free subscription. 6 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 1: So this week I would like to talk to you 7 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: guys about money in politics and politics in general. It's 8 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: a big conversation that we've had in the country because 9 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 1: it costs a lot of money to run for public office. 10 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: In the twenty one months the church along twenty twenty 11 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 1: three to the twenty twenty four campaign cycle, billions of 12 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: dollars run to the campaigns from the top of the 13 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,879 Speaker 1: ballot to the bottom. Cannot's running for president alone, just 14 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 1: the presidency raised one point six two six billion dollars 15 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,480 Speaker 1: and spent one point three two three billion. But that's 16 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: not all. Cants running for Congress raised three point two 17 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 1: seven billion dollars and spent two point seven seven billion. 18 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: Party committees raised two points one billion and spent one 19 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: point eight and super packs raised twelve point twenty five 20 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: billion and spent ten point nine billion. All together. That 21 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:11,039 Speaker 1: means candidates and their respected committees and packs running for 22 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 1: federal office raised nineteen point twenty five billion and spent 23 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: sixteen point seven nine to three billion dollars. Now that 24 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 1: sounds like an insane number, and it is, but it's 25 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 1: actually less than Americans spent on Easter. Americans spent twenty 26 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: point billion dollars on Easter. But still a lot of money. 27 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 1: And it's just for federalists, not including the local races, 28 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: the governors that happened in twenty twenty four, the mayors, 29 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: the city councils, of the school boards, the state legislatures 30 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 1: which are a lot more. But it's still a lot 31 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: of money, and it's only going to go up over time, 32 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 1: especially people moving money to super PACs, which are allowed 33 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: to raise unlimited sums of money. Fundraising for presidential committees 34 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 1: actually hasn't gone up so much. In two thousand and eight, 35 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 1: that's when all the candidates running for president in both 36 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: the primary and the general and third parties raised one 37 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: point six billion dollars. Swell money in politics is very 38 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: intimidating to a lot of people who want to run 39 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: for office, even local office. They get scared. It's one 40 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: of the most frequently asked questions I get from people 41 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: who are curious about politics or the dream of running 42 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: for office, or just working in this career. People have 43 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: a lot of opinions about people who work in politics. 44 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 1: Some are fair and some aren't, but they want to 45 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: know more about the business side of politics. So that's 46 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 1: what this episode is going to be about. Now, a 47 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 1: little backsurround me. I've worked in politics since two thousand 48 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: and seven. My first job, when I was nineteen, was 49 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: working for the New York City Council. I worked for 50 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: a councilwoman who was a friend of a great aunt 51 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:33,959 Speaker 1: of mine. She was one of those aunts who thought 52 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: I was brilliant at everything, even when I wasn't. And 53 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: the councilwoman had called her and said that her PR 54 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: guy had died unexpectedly, and she said, well, you have 55 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,119 Speaker 1: to hire my nineteen year old nephew. He's so great 56 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 1: at everything. So thank you Ann Susie. That nepotism changed 57 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:51,359 Speaker 1: my life. And then I worked odd jobs on different 58 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: campaigns I worked. I ended up being an intern for 59 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: the New York State Senator Tom Libis, who was the 60 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: deputy Minority leader at the time, A wonderful man. I 61 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: learned a lot from him. Sale died a couple of 62 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 1: years ago in prison. But actually my first two big 63 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: political mentors both went to jail. It was a very 64 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: New York story. I worked for as a low level 65 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: stabber for Michael Bloomberg's third mayoral campaign. I worked for 66 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 1: lots of local races, and in twenty ten, I wanted 67 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: to get a job working on a race I could 68 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: really prove myself. And I'd heard a man named Bob 69 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: Turner wanted to run for office against Anthony Meaner, and 70 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 1: so I said to myself, I have to find him. 71 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 1: I have to sit there and apply for this job. Somehow, 72 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:30,639 Speaker 1: I didn't have the experience. I didn't know what he 73 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: even looked like, but I had heard he was going 74 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 1: to the New York State Party convention. I told people 75 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 1: in the crowd that I knew a little bit. I 76 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: was like twenty two years all at the time. I said, 77 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: you know, oh, I'm looking for Bob. Do you know 78 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,119 Speaker 1: where he is? And then one person pointed him out. 79 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: I approached him cold and I said, my name is 80 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: Ryan Grodski. I know this district by the back of 81 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: my hand. I would like to work for your campaign. 82 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: Sold myself and within like maybe thirty minutes, he introduced 83 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: me as his feel director for his campaign, so it 84 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 1: was very exciting. He didn't end up winning the election, 85 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 1: but he did so well. You get over forty percent 86 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 1: against Anthony Minor, who was an entrenched incumbent in a 87 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 1: very democratic district. That when Anthony Minor left office like 88 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 1: a couple months later and there was a special election, 89 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 1: Bob was picked as the party nominee, and he was 90 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: the first Republican outside of Staten Island to hold a 91 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: seat in New York City in several decades. So it 92 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 1: was a lot to prove myself and be proud of myself. 93 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,479 Speaker 1: Were but that's like the nature of politics in this 94 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: business is a lot of times if you're trying to 95 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 1: break into it to work in it, the best case 96 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 1: scenario is a major consultant or an elected official will 97 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: tell you you're my guy or you're my girl, and 98 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 1: they'll take you under their wings, and then you could 99 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: eventually branch off after working them and meeting all their 100 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:45,559 Speaker 1: contacts and all the rest of that. That's what happened 101 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,280 Speaker 1: to like the Ruthless Guys similar Ruthless Guys on that 102 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 1: podcast that they worked for McConnell. Being someone's guy or 103 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,679 Speaker 1: someone's girl has a lot of benefits. The other way 104 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: of coming up is by just working every job possible 105 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: that is given to you. So after Turner, I did 106 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: a race for an upstart libertary named Thomas Massey. I 107 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: did his super pac, took a break, did media gigs 108 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: for a couple of years. I ended up working for 109 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: James o'keeff for a little while, which is another story 110 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 1: for a different time. I'm we're older. I ran the 111 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 1: super Pact for Chris Cobac when he ran for Senate 112 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 1: by just pitching one of his donors cold. The first 113 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: time I met him, I said, I want to I 114 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 1: want to run this guy's super pac. I know you're 115 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 1: supporting him. Fund the super Pack and bring me on. 116 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: And he did. And then through Twitter I met a 117 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: guy named Jadevance and when the Senate s he'd opened 118 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 1: in Ohio in twenty twenty one, I texted him. I said, 119 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: if you're running, I want to be on your team. 120 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: And then two years later Our Star packed for school 121 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 1: board elections nationwide at the seventeen seventy six Project Pack, 122 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: which is almost entirely funded by small dollar donors. It's 123 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 1: the most successful local government super pac right now in 124 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: the country. And that's how I kind of broke into 125 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: this business. And I say the whole story about my 126 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: life because working in politics is about taking chances. I 127 00:05:56,040 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 1: failed a ton of times. I've worked on insane races 128 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: that we never had a chance, that things everything that 129 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 1: could go wrong did go wrong, where I would have 130 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 1: to stay afterwards and clean the bathroom. And well, I 131 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 1: saw all the phones, volunteers made phone calls on I 132 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: mean I did it all. I knocked on doors, I 133 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,840 Speaker 1: got petitions, every kind of odd job because no one 134 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 1: said Ryan, you're my guy. Like that never happened in 135 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: my entire life. People said, oh, Ryan's the last person here, 136 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 1: let's give him a break. I've was constantly the last 137 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 1: person picked for political dodgeball, but I just kept ongoing 138 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 1: and I still do today. It's just about trying to 139 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 1: open a door until someone lets you in. So last 140 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 1: week I sent out a tweet and I asked people 141 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 1: who don't work in policies what questions they had, what 142 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 1: they wanted to show with the business, and what they 143 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 1: want to know from consultants about what it's like to 144 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: run for office, run a race, run a campaign, and 145 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: if they aspire on for office one day, what they 146 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 1: should do. So I got my smartest consultant friend, and 147 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: we're going to answer them now. Luke Thompson is one 148 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:58,679 Speaker 1: of my closest political operative friends. He is a stellar 149 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 1: track record of the last few year years working for 150 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 1: the super Packs for many people including Representative Riley Moore, 151 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: Representative Brandon Gill, Senator Bernie Marino, Senator Dave McCormick. And 152 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: he was my boss for the super Pac supporting jd Vance. 153 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: I have to Nudgeman said, he also worked for Jeb Bush. 154 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,239 Speaker 1: But Luke Thompson, thank you for being here. 155 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 2: Great to be with you. Ryan. We we should get 156 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 2: together more often. 157 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 1: Luke, I don't actually know what was your first campaign. 158 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 2: My first campaign I was, I want to say, seven 159 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 2: years old. It would attempt to pass a bond issue 160 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 2: in my hometown to build a second high school because 161 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 2: we had far outgrown the old high school. But we lost. 162 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 2: My parents were pro mil Levy increase, I think the 163 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 2: only tax I've ever seen them be in favor of, 164 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 2: because literally the students were going to class in trailers 165 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 2: in the freezing cold. 166 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: This uh y. So you were bred from this like 167 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: there was, there was no second choice. 168 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 2: It's in the blood. 169 00:07:56,600 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 1: Yeah. Okay. So I took questions from people on social 170 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:02,559 Speaker 1: media and I'm going to ask them. We'll just talk, 171 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: you know, back and forth. So the first question we got, 172 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 1: which is the most frequent question I got, was how 173 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 1: much money does it cost to run for office? Even 174 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 1: a local one? 175 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 2: And great question. 176 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll say this. It costs as much as it 177 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: does to reach all the voters in your target universe. 178 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 1: So if you're running for local office like city councilor 179 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: school board or even congress or state representative, you have 180 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: not everyone votes, a small select people actually go and vote. 181 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 1: The bigger the election, the more will vote, but you 182 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 1: have to spend as much money as it costs to 183 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 1: reach them. The rule I was always taught is you 184 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: had to touch a voter seven times. I doesn't mean 185 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: to speak to them seven times. It means if we 186 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: see a mailer to just see your name and newspapers 187 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 1: to make sure a voter remembers who you are, they 188 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: have to see your name seven different times. 189 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, there's a lot of rules of thumb 190 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:55,959 Speaker 2: out there about this, but I think another way to 191 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 2: think about it too, because a lot of people who 192 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 2: ask these questions are thinking about running themselves. Don't know 193 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 2: what mental illness takes them over and makes them want 194 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 2: to run for aufit. I'm grateful that it exists because, yeah, 195 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 2: make my living off of it. Yeah. But you know, 196 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 2: one other way to think about it too is like 197 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 2: how much money do you, as a candidate have to 198 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 2: put in or be able to put in to be 199 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 2: a credible candidate? And you know what's interesting about that is, 200 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 2: at a certain population level, everybody max is or should 201 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 2: if you're going to be a serious candidate, max is 202 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 2: out the one resource that everyone has under a sort 203 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 2: of universal communism, which is the clock. Like everybody has 204 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 2: the same amount of time per day, whether or not 205 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:38,959 Speaker 2: you use it all for politics or you have a 206 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 2: personal life or things like that, those are separate considerations. 207 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 2: But you and your opponent, you know, at midnight of 208 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 2: a given day, will have the same amount of time, 209 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 2: and how you use this up to you. However, even 210 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 2: at the state legislative level, some state house races in 211 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 2: smaller states, you can just out hustle your opponent right 212 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,599 Speaker 2: in a lot of places. Once you're even at the 213 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 2: state senate level. It's not possible to simply knock on 214 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,839 Speaker 2: every single door enough times that everybody who might vote 215 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 2: knows you and has formed an opinion of you. And 216 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 2: so that's where money really enters. The equation is you 217 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 2: have to be able to talk to people by proxy 218 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 2: or through surrogate. The most primary surrogate mechanism is media. 219 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 2: Lower down, you're typically going to be, you know, having 220 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 2: volunteers have literature to leave it doors. Sometimes those are 221 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 2: the exact same thing that you mail. To save money, 222 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 2: you're going to want to get some phone banks. You 223 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 2: might want to get an office space or even a 224 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 2: like in a coworking space. You might want to have 225 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 2: a spot to drop things or a you know, a 226 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 2: storage unit. As you get a higher and higher up, 227 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 2: you know, say you want to run for congress. Now 228 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 2: you're talking about you will have a full time staffer 229 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 2: or several full time staffers, depending on the district you 230 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 2: will need. You may use your family car for everything. 231 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 2: You may want to lease a car for the term 232 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 2: of your your race because you're not going to be 233 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 2: the only person driving it. Probably or in fact, ideally, 234 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 2: you won't be driving at all because you'll be on 235 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:06,440 Speaker 2: the phone calling who donors. Mostly the sort of rule 236 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 2: of thumb that I have for people as they think 237 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:12,439 Speaker 2: about running for congressional district. Right, assume it's an open seat. 238 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 2: Assume it's you know, set aside whether or not from 239 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 2: a party standpoint, you you know you can win. Right. 240 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 2: What I say is, go home, go through your phone book, 241 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 2: go through your email, go through your classmates, et cetera. 242 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 2: Make a list of people who if they give you 243 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 2: the maximum that you can donate thirty five hundred dollars 244 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 2: right where you can get for three hundred. That's for 245 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 2: Congress or any federal office. Actually, where you can get 246 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 2: three hundred of those people, because the reality is is 247 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 2: you're going to think you're going to close. I'll close 248 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 2: ninety percent of them. You're going to be lucky if 249 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 2: you can close twenty five percent of right, Right, And 250 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 2: so you need to have a list of three hundred 251 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 2: people who you feel high degrees of congresence, not one 252 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 2: hundred percent, but seventy five percent or better. They'll cut 253 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 2: you a three thousand, five hundred dollars check. If you 254 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 2: can't do that or you don't know that many people 255 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 2: with that kind of disposable income. The reality is it's 256 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 2: going to be really really hard. Now you can compensate 257 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 2: for that by use it, putting your personal means in play. 258 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 2: But now you're talking about, well, how much do I 259 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 2: want to spend? How liquid am I what percentage of 260 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 2: that liquidity do I want to spend? I have two kids. 261 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 2: My kids I would like to go to nice school someday, 262 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:24,160 Speaker 2: and so you know, I got to pay for that. Also, 263 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 2: they might need braces. I got to pay for that too, right, 264 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 2: And so you know, those are the kinds of ways 265 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 2: people should think about this and have really hard conversations, 266 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 2: because if you can't raise from your network, a solid 267 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,559 Speaker 2: doesn't have to be mid six figures, but a solid 268 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 2: six figure chunk, right, you know, quarter million dollars between 269 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:48,559 Speaker 2: what you know of people you call, or if you're 270 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 2: not able to cut a check that's bigger than that, 271 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 2: you're really going to have hard time hitting this sort 272 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 2: of level of seriousness that's necessary. Now. The good news is, 273 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 2: as you go through politics, you will meet people and 274 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 2: they will give your work. Of people, you'll be connected, 275 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 2: some of those people with donors, some will be affected 276 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 2: interest groups, et cetera. And so you can start knocking 277 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 2: doors and work your way up. Riley Moore friend and 278 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 2: client of mine who you mentioned. You know I ran 279 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 2: his congressional campaign in this cycle, the first thing I 280 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 2: did for Riley. We were friends before he entered politics. 281 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 2: In twenty sixteen, he sent me an email saying, Hey, 282 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,079 Speaker 2: I want to run for House Delegates in West Virginia. 283 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 2: I've got you know, there's going to be five thousand voters. 284 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 2: Here's the voter file. Can you tell me which doors 285 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 2: to knock on and which phone owners to call? Did 286 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 2: a little bit of math and set it back to him. 287 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 2: He worked that list like crazy, and it wasn't a 288 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 2: money question that got him that election. He won it 289 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 2: by about one hundred and fifty votes, I think, and 290 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 2: maybe misrememory it may have been a little bigger than that, 291 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 2: but you know, it's not a huge margin, and it 292 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,559 Speaker 2: was a hustle margin. Right now, he's a member of 293 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 2: House leadership as a freshman. So you can build it 294 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:58,199 Speaker 2: on a foundation of hard work, but it's a building 295 00:13:58,200 --> 00:13:59,199 Speaker 2: block over time. 296 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 1: And you can I mean money. When Luke was talking 297 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: about money that's for federal levels. For local elections, you 298 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:09,439 Speaker 1: can get by on less money. It's not necessary. You 299 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 1: can do the hard work. I remember I did a 300 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 1: race for state Assembly from a guy his name is Thematas, 301 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 1: very very nice guy, very wealthy guy, would not put 302 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: the work in. He only wanted to work on Sundays 303 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 1: because he didn't want to spend any time from his business. 304 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 1: This man could so sell snowballs and snowstorms, but I 305 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 1: couldn't get in front of voters ever, and we ended 306 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 1: up losing. He did extremely well, shockingly well, but he 307 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 1: just he just putting the man hours in for a 308 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 1: local office is super essential. So okay, how does a 309 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: candidate feed their families while running for office? Do they 310 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: love of a savings or they spend campaign dollars as 311 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: a substitute. 312 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 2: So it's really hard. I would like a political culture 313 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 2: that would sort of hate this word, but normalize people 314 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 2: you paying themselves out of paying a salary out of 315 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 2: the campaign, because I think if you're a donor to 316 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 2: camp to a campaign, you should want the candidate to 317 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 2: be working at that full time, not distracted by a job. 318 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 2: Right on the flip side, donors get really unhappy about 319 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 2: you paying yourself a nomenal salary out of your campaign 320 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 2: for federal races. It's completely legal, you know, it's I 321 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 2: think I don't know exactly what the amount is you 322 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 2: have to disclose it. Most people don't do it because 323 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 2: they feel like the political blowback is going to be 324 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 2: worse than the upside. 325 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: And so most you can pay for like meals, if 326 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: your team is going out for McDonald's or something, you 327 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 1: can pay for that the campaign funds or total. 328 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, nobody's going to be mad if they see 329 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 2: some meals and some gasoline. Now, people will to be clear. 330 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 2: This is also where danger lies because you'll see, especially 331 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 2: bad candidates will over itemize things, right, So it just 332 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 2: makes their compliance really hard and it winds up costing 333 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 2: them more to sort their compliance that would to just 334 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 2: eat the light bulbs for three dollars that they paid for. Right. 335 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 2: The flip side also is you will see people who 336 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 2: will do things like buy gas cards and all of 337 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 2: a sudden they're kind of using the campaign as petty cash, right, 338 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 2: and that's where you can get in real truck. 339 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: Okay, this is a great consulting question. How do consultants 340 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: have the good judgment to know who to work for, 341 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 1: who will be a strong cant running for office for 342 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 1: the right reasons, or who is an egomaniac who you 343 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: won't follow your advice. I have worked for many an 344 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: egomaniac that will not follow my advice. I've only ever 345 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 1: quit one campaign my whole life from a state senator 346 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: who was out of control and like abusage to the staff. 347 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 1: As far as like a good judgment. When you're for 348 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 1: a lot of consultants, it's about who's going to hire you, right, 349 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 1: because it's it is a you only are ever really 350 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: working for two years if you're working on just campaigns. 351 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: It's important realize people who work on campaigns don't always 352 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 1: go to work for Congress or work in the state legislature, 353 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: for the govern or, whatever you're doing. It happens a lot, 354 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:04,639 Speaker 1: but a lot of people like Luke and I work 355 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,159 Speaker 1: for campaigns. We just do campaigns a year after year 356 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: after year. So if that's your life, just the campaign hustle, 357 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 1: you're always both looking for new work while doing work 358 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 1: with the expectation that your job is only a year 359 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:18,120 Speaker 1: to two years long. 360 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 2: I mean, that's why I do so many super PACs, 361 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 2: is so that I don't have to deal with the candidate. 362 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 1: That is true, and you work with soup Bac, you 363 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 1: have a lot less anxiety moments. 364 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, well there's the anxiety is more donor related. 365 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 2: Are they going to give? They're not going to give. 366 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 2: I know they won't come through now, I look, it's 367 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 2: a really hard question. And the reality is when you're 368 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 2: starting out in this business, you just have to hustle 369 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:50,199 Speaker 2: for everything right, and you can wind up working with 370 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,399 Speaker 2: some real freaks and some real losers. And you know, 371 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 2: the trick is not to get stuck there, and that 372 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:59,360 Speaker 2: requires a kind of I think moral discipline to say, yes, 373 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 2: I know Smith sucks, I know he's not going to win, 374 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:03,959 Speaker 2: and thank god he's not going to win, but damn it, 375 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:07,879 Speaker 2: John Smith, for you know, select campaign is going to 376 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:11,239 Speaker 2: be the best damn Selectman campaign anyone's ever seen. And 377 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 2: in my experience, you know, when you do a good campaign, 378 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 2: people will notice. Not always, but sometimes they will notice. 379 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 2: And you know, so you can a campaign can transcend 380 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,879 Speaker 2: its canon. The other thing you can do is just 381 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 2: you know, do what I do and convince your friends 382 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:33,239 Speaker 2: to run for office. You know they do. 383 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 1: I have to, Luke, No, not really, okay, I guess 384 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 1: I have to run. 385 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 2: Exactly well, it's this is the bait and switch I 386 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 2: pull as I spend years convincing them they should run 387 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 2: for offs. Then when they finally sit down with me 388 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 2: and they're like, I'm ready to have the talk, the 389 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 2: first thing I say is, you don't want run for offs? 390 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:47,920 Speaker 2: It's stupid. Why do you want to run for office? 391 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:50,439 Speaker 2: You have a great life. Your life is good, your 392 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 2: your spouse likes you, You're doing well in business, you 393 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:55,399 Speaker 2: see your children every day. What are you out of 394 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 2: your mind? What do you want to run a like 395 00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 2: low grade fever for the next fifteen months. You want 396 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 2: to hear the same joke fifty five times? You want 397 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 2: to five hundred to sell the Times? Yeah, tell the 398 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 2: same story. Yeah, yeah, but no. I think you know 399 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 2: one thing to keep in mind, and this is especially true. 400 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 2: I think as the millennial population boom enters into sort 401 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 2: of middle age, there's no definition of who a candidate 402 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 2: is or what a candidate looks like. The barriers to 403 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 2: entry that I enumerated are very real, right, to be clear, 404 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 2: they're very real. On the other hand, they're not fatal 405 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:39,359 Speaker 2: right that they can be overcome if you're strategic and so, 406 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 2: you know, go out and meet people, meet people who volunteer, 407 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 2: meet people who knock on doors. Assess whether you think 408 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 2: they're good people, whether they're smart people, whether they're thoughtful people, 409 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 2: whether they're hard working and honest people. You know, politics 410 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 2: could be a business with a fair amount of deceit 411 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 2: in it, but both within a legislature and I think 412 00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 2: within a campaign, honesty is the current and see that 413 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,639 Speaker 2: you have above all else. And as long as you 414 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 2: have an honest relationship with your client as a consultant, 415 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 2: and as long as you instill in your client that, 416 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,919 Speaker 2: especially if going into a legislature, you cannot lie to 417 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 2: your colleagues because they will never trust you and never 418 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:23,880 Speaker 2: forgive you and isolate you and make you miserable. Well, 419 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,920 Speaker 2: I'll use an affirmative example. You know, I when when 420 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 2: our mutual friend Vice President Vance was then maybe Senator Advance. Uh, 421 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 2: you know, he went into the Senate as something of 422 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 2: a hot shot, well known entity, you know, conservative firebrand, 423 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 2: et cetera. But his attitude towards the Senate. We talked 424 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 2: about this a lot, was like, I'm going to be 425 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:45,679 Speaker 2: straight with me. I know they disagree with me on 426 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:49,959 Speaker 2: several issues, but I'm just going to act with complete integrity, 427 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,359 Speaker 2: and I understand some people are going to be sneaky 428 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 2: around me, but my colleagues will see that. They'll see 429 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 2: that I act with integrity and they will trust me, 430 00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:59,919 Speaker 2: and down the line that will pay off. And he 431 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 2: was able to build relationships with people who were not 432 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 2: ideologically akin to him. Right. Susan Collins is a great 433 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 2: example of this. They don't agree on a lot, there 434 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:12,399 Speaker 2: are a lot of issues where they go back and forth, 435 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 2: but they were always very straight with each other. He 436 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:19,080 Speaker 2: really admired the way that she operated and the way 437 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 2: that she was very upfront and told people where she 438 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,440 Speaker 2: was on things, and learned a lot from her. Conveyed 439 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 2: his gratitude to her for that, and as a result, 440 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,120 Speaker 2: you know here in this confirmation fight when he sat 441 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 2: down and talked to her about certain nominees that carried 442 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 2: a lot of weight because she knew he wasn't lying. 443 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 1: All right, That's a great example. Or you could be 444 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 1: a senator from many senators who they copied their colleagues bills, 445 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,439 Speaker 1: they reintroduced them for themselves to claim credit for it 446 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 1: so they can get hits on right wing media. Then 447 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 1: they just write books endlessly in toward the books until 448 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:54,919 Speaker 1: they do some other job, like, for a complete random example, 449 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 1: become the president of the University of Florida or something. 450 00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: I don't know who knows, but yeah, this is a 451 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,159 Speaker 1: great question to Paul blast One. How do you commnce 452 00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:06,400 Speaker 1: a good person run for office? And can you dissuade 453 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 1: a bad person who shouldn't be running for office? So 454 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,479 Speaker 1: I'll say for bad people, I'll say sometimes the party 455 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 1: bosses or the powers that be or major donors can 456 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 1: sit there and they could say to them, we use 457 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 1: they use a carrot and say, listen, if you you know, 458 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 1: maybe you could run for a party delegate, maybe you 459 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 1: could have this position. Maybe you go to that position, 460 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:26,879 Speaker 1: but don't run for the office you want to run 461 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: for it. Or they could use a stick and say, 462 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 1: if you do this, we're going to spend a gajillion 463 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 1: dollars against you and ruin you. So don't do it 464 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 1: like they could do. People do that. Can consultancy that 465 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,440 Speaker 1: not really not so much. I mean I've never seen 466 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 1: it personally where a consultant can just bully somebody out 467 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 1: of running for office. 468 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really hard. I mean, I think in general, though, 469 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:50,160 Speaker 2: this is really asking the same question, which is how 470 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 2: do you motivate people in relation to public office? And 471 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 2: the reality is is that everybody who thinks about running 472 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 2: for office is ambitious. Right. They don't do this because 473 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 2: they don't want to win. And I think we have 474 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 2: a culture that treats ambition as a crime, and that's foolish. 475 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 2: They're ambitious, right, I mean, there's not a single person 476 00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 2: who pulls papers for state legislator that doesn't think in 477 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 2: some dark moment in the back of his or her 478 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 2: mind about the oval office. Like they just all it's okay, 479 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 2: it's okay. 480 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 1: Present the truth though, everyone. If you're running for like Dogcatcher, 481 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:25,679 Speaker 1: you're thinking, I could be. 482 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,119 Speaker 2: Praising you know, I'm I'm three pitbulls away from state 483 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 2: selectmen and from selectman that I'm gonna run for that 484 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 2: state Senate district. I'm gonna jump over the lower House entirely, 485 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 2: and once I'm in the senate State Senate Andy Barley 486 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 2: dor because I'm going this rocket show. Yeah, that's true, 487 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 2: and you know what good good? Right? I mean, the 488 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 2: framers of the Constitution, founders of this country were utterly 489 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,679 Speaker 2: unabashed about their desire for virtuous fame, right, for for 490 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 2: earned fame and and the you know they they talk 491 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 2: about it in speeches and their private ridings and their correspondence, 492 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:07,440 Speaker 2: et cetera. The desire for ambition, the ambition for office, prominence, esteem, leadership, power, fine, 493 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 2: the hedonic treadmill is a universal. And so don't go 494 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 2: around looking for someone and saying, well, I don't like 495 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,439 Speaker 2: this person because he's ambitious, but I do like this 496 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,440 Speaker 2: person because she doesn't seem like she wants the office. 497 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,639 Speaker 1: Right right now. Usually they very rarely win if they 498 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:23,640 Speaker 1: don't really want. 499 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 2: Right Either you're misreading her and she's really actually quite ambitious, 500 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,399 Speaker 2: or like she's just not going to put in time. 501 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:34,879 Speaker 2: And that's fine, right, But don't try to dragoon somebody 502 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 2: into something they don't really want to do, because the 503 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 2: reality is they're going to put themselves and their family 504 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 2: and sometimes you through hell, but not nearly as much 505 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,200 Speaker 2: as you will be putting them through. Help. Now, they're 506 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,439 Speaker 2: also the principle, they're the candidate, and so it's to 507 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 2: them redounds the benefit, redounds, the fame and the power, etc. 508 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 2: You are a staff player, you're a bit player, you 509 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,880 Speaker 2: are support, right, and don't ever forget. 510 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: That that is so true. Consultant should never be more 511 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 1: popular than there candidates they work for. What is the 512 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 1: impact on a candidate's family and what should they expect 513 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,119 Speaker 1: and how should they prepare for it. 514 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 2: It's a really haution. Yeah, it's a great question. It's 515 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,399 Speaker 2: really hard. So a lot gets demanded of the family 516 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 2: because simply absence is a big part of that, right, 517 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 2: I mean, when are prime campaigning times weekends when you 518 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 2: might be you know, going to games, uh, you know 519 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 2: some a while people are connunations exactly. So you know, 520 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 2: one thing is to be very clear with your family 521 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:37,919 Speaker 2: up front, like hey, look, this is this is going 522 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 2: to cost us things, and have frank conversations as a consultant. Also, 523 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,360 Speaker 2: you need to build a trusting relationship with the spouse, 524 00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,479 Speaker 2: all right, Like the spouse is never the problem, and 525 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:51,959 Speaker 2: if the spouse is the problem, you need to get 526 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 2: out of a campaign because it's dysfunctional. But in a 527 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 2: situation where you can't just be like, oh he's being 528 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 2: unreason or oh she's being unrealistic, Like you're asking way 529 00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,000 Speaker 2: more of the spouse than is reasonable to ask of anyone, 530 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:10,160 Speaker 2: even if you're running for like state legislature, if you're 531 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,400 Speaker 2: having spouse problems, it's because you've failed to manage expectations 532 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 2: or you failed to execute. Now that's not a huge issue. 533 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,280 Speaker 2: Just learn and get better and think about it in 534 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 2: that way. The best way to think about that is 535 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,119 Speaker 2: the same way you think about a candidate. What are 536 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 2: the motivations and what are the aspirations? Right? 537 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:29,119 Speaker 1: And then what do you go into a marriage? When 538 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 1: I was thinking about like is this person you should know, like, oh, 539 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,359 Speaker 1: my spouse is going to do something someday and I 540 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:35,479 Speaker 1: have to be prepared for it. 541 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:36,479 Speaker 2: Correct correct. 542 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 1: If they have that fire in, then it's probably never 543 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 1: going to go away. 544 00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, And look like I ask every client I work with, 545 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 2: like have you had the talk? Where is missus or 546 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 2: mister X on this? And if mister and missus X 547 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 2: is not all in, then I tell them you really 548 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,160 Speaker 2: shouldn't do this. You know. I know people who fresh 549 00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,120 Speaker 2: off a divorce want to run for office because it's 550 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 2: like I got to get some in my life. And 551 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 2: it's like, well, that's tritherapy in church, because this is 552 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:07,200 Speaker 2: not a spiritual. 553 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,640 Speaker 1: Hospital you're listening to. It's a numbers game with Ryan Grodowski. 554 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 1: We'll be right back after this message, how in depth 555 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 1: are background checks? And when you want to run and 556 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,439 Speaker 1: they bring in a consultant for background checks. Okay, so 557 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:28,200 Speaker 1: background checks don't happen usually for local office. A lot 558 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 1: of times they don't happen, even for congressional offices. Remember 559 00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:37,919 Speaker 1: George Santos won his election without anyone knowing anything, and 560 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,120 Speaker 1: well most people they don't know anything. No one picked 561 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:41,960 Speaker 1: up on it. He could have been picked up on it. 562 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 1: Luke made a face, me, that's what. Yeah, But George 563 00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,480 Speaker 1: has had a million red flags flopping in the wind, 564 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 1: the size that you would see a flag you would 565 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,640 Speaker 1: see a car dealership in like Midwest. That's how big 566 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 1: the flags were. And they were not picked up until 567 00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,920 Speaker 1: the until the New York Times brought it up trying 568 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 1: to write a puff piece about him and saying, oh wow, 569 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,880 Speaker 1: nothing he says makes sense. So for local office, very 570 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 1: rarely to ever being picked up. Maybe if you're like 571 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 1: running from mayor or something like that, but very rarely. 572 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,919 Speaker 1: Higher office it happens more. I mean, there are people 573 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,399 Speaker 1: is very expensive to do big background checks some people, 574 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:20,920 Speaker 1: but there are people to do it. It costs a 575 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 1: lot of money. 576 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:25,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, there are degrees of vulnerability study. Right, you should 577 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 2: pay somebody to run a Lexus Nexus whack on you 578 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 2: and just run your name and addresses through Lexus and Nexus. Yeah, 579 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 2: because that's not that expensive and that will That's eighty 580 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,879 Speaker 2: five percent of what most opposition research is going to 581 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 2: look like. 582 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:42,400 Speaker 1: And for God's sakes, by the way, clear your social 583 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 1: media history. Clear it, I don't care what it is. 584 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 1: Download every picture of your face with it you want 585 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 1: to keep, and wipe it clean. Wipe everything clean. The 586 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,239 Speaker 1: amount of candidates who lose because they were insane on 587 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 1: social media five six, seven, eight, nine years ago is 588 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 1: and it's sort clear your social media. 589 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 2: Ryan, are you admitting that you have a New to 590 00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 2: Africa account to it? Yeah? Exactly right. Well, the other 591 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 2: thing that's valuable here too is you know a lot 592 00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 2: of times people don't understand what oppositional research is. They think, oh, 593 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 2: opposition research, it's going to be a PI going through 594 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,400 Speaker 2: my trash to see if I'm cheating on my wife. Look, 595 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 2: if you're running in a competitive frontline senate district, yes 596 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 2: someone's going to ruffle your trash probably, but maybe not right. 597 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:36,080 Speaker 2: The reality is is that most opposition research surfaces tendentious 598 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,080 Speaker 2: things that can be spun a certain way. Oh, you 599 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 2: had a boundary dispute with your neighbor, very normal thing, right. 600 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,520 Speaker 2: We weren't sure where the leans were. We couldn't figure 601 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 2: it out. We wound up going to court. Right. In 602 00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,840 Speaker 2: twenty fourteen was when I was at the NRSC. We 603 00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,800 Speaker 2: spent millions of dollars convincing islands, which was pretty easy 604 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 2: to do because it was true that Bruce Brayley, then 605 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 2: a congressman running for Senate against Junior, was an asshole 606 00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 2: because he sued his neighbor over some chickens. Right now, 607 00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 2: Bruce Brayley, if you ask him like, hey, are you 608 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 2: an asshole, He's gonna say no, I'm not an asshole. Okay, 609 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 2: But you run a lessis search on and you go 610 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 2: suit your neighbor over some chickens. Huh. Oh, that's gonna 611 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 2: leave a mark. I can write that, right. And so 612 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 2: it's often really pedestrian things that you wouldn't think about. Right. Oh, 613 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 2: I had somebody file a complaint against my insert small 614 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 2: business over insert totally normal thing. We disputed it, it 615 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 2: went away, et cetera. Right. Oh, you know, pregnant lady 616 00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,960 Speaker 2: in car accident left hung out to dry by Canada. 617 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:46,480 Speaker 2: Why again, On the merit you can win these things 618 00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,680 Speaker 2: a lot, and in some cases, as I've done in 619 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 2: a few races, you can get takedown orders if they 620 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,000 Speaker 2: try to put it on broadcast TV. But like you 621 00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 2: want to know what those are so you can pre 622 00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 2: butt them. And you know, sometimes these things happen live 623 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 2: on the fly and you can't anticipate what they're going 624 00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:06,120 Speaker 2: to be because they're just crazy, you know, the like 625 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 2: the Ohio Senate primary. I was, yeah, I was working 626 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 2: for Burning Marino Superpack and like, one of our opponents 627 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 2: was shopping this story that he had an adult FriendFinder 628 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 2: account that was like obviously a prank and obviously had 629 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 2: never been used. They shopped it and shopped and shopped it, 630 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:26,760 Speaker 2: and like, I'm sure they were doing this on campaign 631 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 2: side as well. I was on the superpackside. We were 632 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,680 Speaker 2: killing it over and over and over again. And then 633 00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,600 Speaker 2: a week before election day, the Associated Press runs the 634 00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:40,840 Speaker 2: story with glaring factual errors in it, like glaring factual errors, 635 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 2: but they just run the story and like, we were, 636 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:48,280 Speaker 2: you know, we were prepared. We retaliated, We took it down. 637 00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 2: We found the guy who built the initial database infrastructure 638 00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,240 Speaker 2: for adult friend Finder, and he was just like, yeah, 639 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,960 Speaker 2: iPhones didn't exist in two thousand and sixty EIGHTIO. It's like, 640 00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,880 Speaker 2: this isn't Jeoe located. This is just a lat long 641 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,840 Speaker 2: lookup table, which we could tell and we sort of 642 00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:03,840 Speaker 2: had that ready to go, but we needed an authority 643 00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 2: to rebut the AP story because the AP had run 644 00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:10,040 Speaker 2: this thing and put it in print, which was insane. Yeah, anyway, 645 00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:11,880 Speaker 2: all this is a long witted way of saying, like, 646 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,720 Speaker 2: there's some stuff that's just going to happen now if. 647 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,520 Speaker 1: You're not, it's not as in depth, especially for local office, 648 00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:20,360 Speaker 1: as you would think. I think that right now, that's 649 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:22,960 Speaker 1: mostly a movie version of what running for office like 650 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:23,360 Speaker 1: that is. 651 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 2: Now, if you are addicted to drugs, if you have 652 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 2: a gambling habit and like eighteen extra marital relationships going on, 653 00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 2: or really any extramarical relationships going on, first of all, 654 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 2: you have don't have the time to run for office. 655 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 2: You are already over committed. But like, just don't don't. 656 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,280 Speaker 2: All right, this is not the place to work your 657 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 2: shit out. Okay, It's just not like America will be fine. 658 00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,000 Speaker 2: We don't need you in this capacity. 659 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,240 Speaker 1: Some men would rather run for office than get therapy 660 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:53,080 Speaker 1: any such cases. Okay, well, it's three more questions really quick, 661 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,200 Speaker 1: because I know it's been a while. So first, how 662 00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,440 Speaker 1: much better is internal polling compared to public polling? And 663 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,200 Speaker 1: do the cam pagns know a lot more than the 664 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 1: news organizations? So I will say this one. It's not 665 00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,360 Speaker 1: about because a lot of people do public polls also 666 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,360 Speaker 1: do internal polls. It is not a matter of necessarily 667 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:13,680 Speaker 1: that they know more. It's kind of what kind of 668 00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:16,200 Speaker 1: polls are they doing. Is it a mixture of text 669 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 1: message and phone calls? Is a live call or is 670 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 1: it just internet? It's really about the polling organization than 671 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 1: necessarily who does it? Tony Fabrizio, who did President Trump's polls? 672 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 1: Any did Jadvance's US Senate polls? He also has polls 673 00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,960 Speaker 1: for the Wall Street Journal. They don't look very much 674 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,160 Speaker 1: different than each other. He's not trying to hoax the 675 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal because he's given the good stuff over 676 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 1: to President Trump. It's also what kind of questions that 677 00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 1: they ask. Campaigns will ask different types of questions, the 678 00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 1: less persuasion questions like hey, if I talk about this, 679 00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,360 Speaker 1: or if my opponent is if no, my opponent believes this, 680 00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,880 Speaker 1: how will sway the election? Journalists or news organizations are 681 00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 1: not going to ask those same type of questions. A 682 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,360 Speaker 1: different style of question that they're going to ask. 683 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:07,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean news as a general proposition, all things 684 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:10,080 Speaker 2: being equal, private polling is better than media polling. Right. 685 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:13,640 Speaker 2: In general, it's better because the campaigns are going to 686 00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,399 Speaker 2: spend more because it's going to guide strategic spending. They're 687 00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,160 Speaker 2: also going to better because they're gonna better written. 688 00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,120 Speaker 1: Because most of news organizations, why, they do not pay 689 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,600 Speaker 1: for any polling. I've learned that it's free. It's price 690 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 1: the publicity for the pollstar. Some do, some do, some 691 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:28,960 Speaker 1: of most do not. 692 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, the uh, you know, just media is interested in 693 00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,400 Speaker 2: election anticipation polling. That's their goal. They want to know 694 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 2: who's popular, who's unpopular, how happier people with the country, 695 00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 2: what's the ballot going to look like? Right, it's if 696 00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,719 Speaker 2: the election were held today. That's what they care about. 697 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,239 Speaker 2: You know, when we're writing polls for a campaign, we're 698 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:54,680 Speaker 2: thinking about our ad budget and we're thinking about what 699 00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,239 Speaker 2: segments the electorate do we need to work on, what 700 00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,799 Speaker 2: messages work with those people, What are the aspects of 701 00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:02,600 Speaker 2: us that we're not hitting on What are issues that 702 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:06,279 Speaker 2: are really important? Are we messaging on them effectively? Where 703 00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,880 Speaker 2: are we getting bounced by our opponent? Et cetera, et cetera. 704 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:15,279 Speaker 2: And you know, especially in primaries where structural factors don't 705 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:19,080 Speaker 2: matter as much and strategy is more important. Sorry, that's 706 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,319 Speaker 2: just the truth. You know, you can you can start 707 00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:24,279 Speaker 2: to see, like, okay, which parts of the party and 708 00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 2: ideological tendencies or demographic tendencies are moving with, which person 709 00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,399 Speaker 2: who's really vulnerable, et cetera. You know, I'll use I'll 710 00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:36,880 Speaker 2: use another example from from the Ohio Senate race. You 711 00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 2: know Frank Lrose, who I like. I've got a good 712 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,480 Speaker 2: relationship with Frank. This is not a personal thing, this 713 00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,320 Speaker 2: is a professional thing. Frank was running against my client. 714 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:48,480 Speaker 2: And you know, Frank had traditionally been if you had 715 00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,120 Speaker 2: done a poll on which parts of the party he 716 00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,160 Speaker 2: was most popular with, it would have been more moderates 717 00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:55,320 Speaker 2: versus very conservative voters. Ignizing that this was going to 718 00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,520 Speaker 2: be a problem in or Republican primary, he undertook projects 719 00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:02,520 Speaker 2: to bolst his conservative boat feet days. Totally normal candid behavior. 720 00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:05,400 Speaker 2: That's not cynical, that's politics, Like it's the smart right 721 00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:08,520 Speaker 2: thing to do, and it helped he drove up his 722 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:11,920 Speaker 2: his fave on fave with very conservative voters. It damaged 723 00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 2: him with his previous base of voters because they were like, Oh, 724 00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 2: this isn't the guy I thought it was. Maybe I'm 725 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:20,440 Speaker 2: not such a big fan of. And I saw this 726 00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:22,399 Speaker 2: in the polling Over time, as I looked at where 727 00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,600 Speaker 2: Frank was doing with tendencies, and I knew that I 728 00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:28,880 Speaker 2: had some messaging that would really undercut his stance with 729 00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:33,239 Speaker 2: social conservatives. I had, I had from the research and 730 00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,399 Speaker 2: et cetera. I had put together all this stuff, and 731 00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,759 Speaker 2: essentially what I found was that he was out on 732 00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:42,239 Speaker 2: a limb that I could cut off behind it. And 733 00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,880 Speaker 2: that's not me. You know, the ballot on any of 734 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,400 Speaker 2: those polls, and even the fave on faves, they weren't 735 00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,640 Speaker 2: actually useful to me in and of themselves. It was 736 00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,840 Speaker 2: only who's he most popular with, who's the least popular with? 737 00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,920 Speaker 2: How did these issues resonate? Et cetera. And so it 738 00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:00,640 Speaker 2: was about putting together the combination of, you know, if 739 00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:04,279 Speaker 2: every campaign is a question time, territory and resource, right, 740 00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:06,320 Speaker 2: I had a pretty good sense of what my resource 741 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:08,799 Speaker 2: was for money, I need to know what my ideological 742 00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:12,799 Speaker 2: resource was because or what my ideological territory was. And 743 00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,680 Speaker 2: then timing was just a matter of getting close to election. 744 00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:20,520 Speaker 1: At what point do you tell your candidates, quote, homie, 745 00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:24,120 Speaker 1: shit is bad. That was one of my questions. So 746 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,840 Speaker 1: it's a great question. It's a great question. So, like, 747 00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:32,440 Speaker 1: first of all, you need to be bluntly honest with 748 00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:36,480 Speaker 1: your with your clients, like in a very very normal, 749 00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:38,520 Speaker 1: not a normal way that you would do like your friends. 750 00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:40,640 Speaker 1: I had a client one time who I was being 751 00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:42,600 Speaker 1: very polite to and I was like, you need to 752 00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,640 Speaker 1: go before we take pictures to use everywhere. You need 753 00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,560 Speaker 1: to get your teeth cleaned because your teeth are orange. 754 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:49,680 Speaker 1: Like I can't emphasize enough. You need like you need 755 00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,799 Speaker 1: to be so blunt with them and be like, no, 756 00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,239 Speaker 1: this is not this is not working at Like, you 757 00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,239 Speaker 1: need to do something with yourself. When the race is 758 00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:01,120 Speaker 1: coming down to the water, needed to sit there and 759 00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:04,760 Speaker 1: say something. You know, if it's a matter of winning 760 00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,360 Speaker 1: and losing. You also have to know your client. If 761 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,640 Speaker 1: your client is just illusional, and I've had a few 762 00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:11,719 Speaker 1: of them and you're like, look, you're not living in 763 00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,239 Speaker 1: the world that I'm living in So if you're having 764 00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:15,239 Speaker 1: a good time, you're having a good time. But there 765 00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:16,960 Speaker 1: are people that you sit there and say you know 766 00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:20,359 Speaker 1: that you're like, you know it's a serious win or 767 00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,440 Speaker 1: lost thing. You need to sit there and say you 768 00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:26,480 Speaker 1: neither A invest more money or b stop investing money 769 00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,200 Speaker 1: because there's no amount of money. Did you as this 770 00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:31,239 Speaker 1: whole like you need to be out there to protect them, 771 00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:35,319 Speaker 1: and that's crucial. The perfect example from history was like 772 00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,640 Speaker 1: Susie Wilds in twenty sixteen telling Donald Trump, I think 773 00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:41,000 Speaker 1: she needed like a million or ten million more dollar. 774 00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,640 Speaker 1: I think it's ten million dollars to win Florida for him. 775 00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:45,879 Speaker 1: She's like, I need ten million more dollars cash from 776 00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,759 Speaker 1: you right now. And he screamed and he cursed. This 777 00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:51,920 Speaker 1: is in the political on or those organizations. But Susie 778 00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:53,800 Speaker 1: Wilde had a track record for winning this election. She 779 00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,120 Speaker 1: knew she could do it. But it was bluntly honest, 780 00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:58,520 Speaker 1: and he cut her the check and she she helped 781 00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:00,920 Speaker 1: win Florida in twenty sixteen by less than a point. 782 00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:05,000 Speaker 1: So it's a matter of really knowing knowing yourself, where 783 00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:09,080 Speaker 1: the state of the races, and then being confident with 784 00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:11,759 Speaker 1: your relationship with your client and unless they could fire 785 00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:14,200 Speaker 1: you is the worst they could do. But you that's like, 786 00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:16,719 Speaker 1: that is that's really where it is to understand where 787 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:20,760 Speaker 1: they are. And and uh, there are some delusional clients. 788 00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:23,480 Speaker 1: A lot of them literally lives upins on nerves all 789 00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,399 Speaker 1: the time. And generally the clients who always think they're 790 00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,040 Speaker 1: going to lose what something, it's terrible, they are the 791 00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:29,960 Speaker 1: easier ones to deal with than the ones who are 792 00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:31,160 Speaker 1: confident they're always going to win. 793 00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I guess two bits of just tactical 794 00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:39,759 Speaker 2: advice here. One is you should never have the it's 795 00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,400 Speaker 2: bad talk when the client brings it to you. You 796 00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:45,680 Speaker 2: need to set the terms of that, decide when it's 797 00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:47,279 Speaker 2: going to happen, and you need to say, hey, we 798 00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:52,200 Speaker 2: need to have conversation because if they bring it to you, 799 00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:55,040 Speaker 2: they're just going to be spun up and like they 800 00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,800 Speaker 2: won't trust you, they won't feel like they will be 801 00:39:57,880 --> 00:39:59,719 Speaker 2: like wait, wait, you knew this and you didn't bring 802 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:03,640 Speaker 2: it to So so if you think the gay things are bad, 803 00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,160 Speaker 2: like get it on the get it on the calendar, 804 00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:08,400 Speaker 2: and like get it on the calendar fast, and you 805 00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:12,520 Speaker 2: need to bring it to them, right, number one. Number two, 806 00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,000 Speaker 2: you know, if you're going to lose by more than 807 00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:19,600 Speaker 2: ten and the client doesn't know that, I mean, as 808 00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 2: long as they're not spending their own money, like you 809 00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,360 Speaker 2: should be blunt with them. But it's not. You know, 810 00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,480 Speaker 2: obviously you don't want to hurt the family, you don't 811 00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,120 Speaker 2: want them to suffer embarrassment, et cetera. But you need 812 00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:33,600 Speaker 2: to have strategic conversations around that sort of thing. If 813 00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:34,840 Speaker 2: it's going to be a race that's going to be 814 00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,480 Speaker 2: within ten points either way, then the answer is and 815 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,520 Speaker 2: then the answer is to you don't actually know if 816 00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:43,320 Speaker 2: they're going to win or lose, right, you just don't 817 00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:48,400 Speaker 2: be honest with yourself. And number two say to them, look, 818 00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,160 Speaker 2: you could win this or you could lose this. It's 819 00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:54,400 Speaker 2: close enough that no data that I provide you is 820 00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,040 Speaker 2: going to change your behavior either way. So just act 821 00:40:57,080 --> 00:41:00,680 Speaker 2: like you're down by five and go bleep bleep bl campaign. 822 00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:05,280 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, yeah, Last question, this is a good one. 823 00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,640 Speaker 1: What is the craziest thing you've ever seen in your 824 00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,239 Speaker 1: consulting career in a campaign? 825 00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:11,560 Speaker 2: Found a dead body in Mississippi? 826 00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:14,000 Speaker 1: Once you found a dead body in Mississippi, a dead 827 00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,839 Speaker 1: body where would you what campaign was that? 828 00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,400 Speaker 2: That was the body? It's a Sad Cochrane for a 829 00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:20,520 Speaker 2: Missisippi centate campaign. 830 00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:23,960 Speaker 1: The dead body was behind you, Thad Cochran from Misisippi. 831 00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:27,440 Speaker 1: Where did you? Where did you? Where did you stumble 832 00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:28,240 Speaker 1: on a dead body? 833 00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:30,880 Speaker 2: It was in a It was in an exurban neighborhood. 834 00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,080 Speaker 2: I want to say, I don't remember where it was 835 00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:33,920 Speaker 2: Visa B. Jackson. 836 00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:35,799 Speaker 1: Did they still sign the petition to get the count 837 00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:36,760 Speaker 1: on the ballot. 838 00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:39,920 Speaker 2: During the un so they were already on the ballot. 839 00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,600 Speaker 2: I didn't. I called it in. There's a police reports. 840 00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:47,240 Speaker 1: I did a campaign one time where it was really 841 00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:51,040 Speaker 1: eccentric guy, very wealthy guy in New Jersey who told 842 00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:53,800 Speaker 1: that one of the knocking on doors and kind of 843 00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,359 Speaker 1: more rural New Jersey and they said, you know, he said, 844 00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:58,600 Speaker 1: how can I earn your boat? And this old lady 845 00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:00,839 Speaker 1: was talking at the door and she said, you get 846 00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:04,960 Speaker 1: rid of the beehive, nest on behive on my roof. 847 00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:10,600 Speaker 1: And he climbed the roof, was stung a thousand times 848 00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,440 Speaker 1: and kicked off a beehive, and like I mean, was 849 00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:17,799 Speaker 1: being stung repeatedly. I've done a race in Ohio where 850 00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,960 Speaker 1: a man opened his trunk to put palm cottnap punk 851 00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:23,360 Speaker 1: cars door signs in it, and it was there was 852 00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:27,880 Speaker 1: a hamsters. It was not ferrous, it was you know, 853 00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:30,239 Speaker 1: it was Gerbils. It was gerbils. There were Gerbils in 854 00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:32,439 Speaker 1: the trunk of his car. And I said there, I said, sorry, 855 00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,120 Speaker 1: you have gerbils in your car, so oh you should 856 00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,520 Speaker 1: see my garage. They were all over the place as 857 00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,799 Speaker 1: if that was like the absolute normal response. I mean, 858 00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:42,200 Speaker 1: I've my favorite Luke Thompson story was one time you 859 00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:44,200 Speaker 1: did a camp. You were at it, you were in 860 00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:49,840 Speaker 1: West Virginia, western Maryland and doing a campaign, and you 861 00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:51,799 Speaker 1: said you were working on the you're working in the 862 00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:54,960 Speaker 1: door and someone started saying a conspiracy theory to you, 863 00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:56,840 Speaker 1: and then a second person came with an even crazier 864 00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,640 Speaker 1: conspiracy theory where the first conspiracy theory said, this is 865 00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:01,080 Speaker 1: too much. Was this guy's nuts? 866 00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:02,839 Speaker 2: You know. It was in a polling place I had 867 00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,960 Speaker 2: I'd had somebody who'd gone into details about like and 868 00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:08,680 Speaker 2: I mean details about some chem trail stuff to me, 869 00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:11,960 Speaker 2: I mean details, and then somebody else came by and 870 00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:14,120 Speaker 2: unloaded like a whole other thing, and the kem trails 871 00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:15,440 Speaker 2: guy looked at me and I'm like, that guy's out 872 00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:19,360 Speaker 2: of here. Man, I don't know. I I once I 873 00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:23,560 Speaker 2: had a guy answer, uh, answer the door, shirtless but 874 00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,399 Speaker 2: packing heat and his pet rooster ran out and tried 875 00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:29,840 Speaker 2: to get my rental. That happened, and I have a 876 00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:32,080 Speaker 2: I have a toy rooster that the kids work on. 877 00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,920 Speaker 2: That campaign got me to commemorate that. 878 00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:38,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, answer the door naked is actually startling. 879 00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,680 Speaker 2: You see some wild ship. Like the number of people 880 00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:45,440 Speaker 2: who sit in their chairs shirtless, eating cereal out of 881 00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:48,560 Speaker 2: the box and just migrate directly to the door in 882 00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:50,840 Speaker 2: that state of affairs, It's like very high. 883 00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:53,480 Speaker 1: Luke, thank you so much for being on this podcast. 884 00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:56,000 Speaker 1: I really appreciate it. Where can people go to find 885 00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:57,520 Speaker 1: your stuff that they want to see you on? Your 886 00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:00,640 Speaker 1: Twitter is really funny. It's a lot about Yeah. 887 00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,239 Speaker 2: I mean, I guess lt Tompso on Twitter, No end 888 00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,279 Speaker 2: at the end is the best place to go, Ryan, Ryan, 889 00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:06,959 Speaker 2: you just go throw a retweet on there. 890 00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:08,239 Speaker 1: And then I want to do it. 891 00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,399 Speaker 2: To do it for sure, I've probably toned it down 892 00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:13,359 Speaker 2: a little bit as I've gotten older, But you know, 893 00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:15,279 Speaker 2: there's a few bangers out there. 894 00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,319 Speaker 1: This saucy Yeah all right, Luke, thank you so much. 895 00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:21,600 Speaker 1: Thank you for listening. Yeah, thank you everyone for listening. 896 00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:24,520 Speaker 1: We will be back next week. Please like and subscribe 897 00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,640 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio, app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get to 898 00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:28,520 Speaker 1: your podcasts.