1 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. 2 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:17,760 Speaker 1: I I'm Chad Mollman, chief content officer of the Action Network. Guys, 3 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:22,959 Speaker 1: we are heading into draft season. I can't freaking wait 4 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: it like it fills me with joy to be able 5 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: to talk so in depth, le about something that is 6 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 1: a made up event that consumes our attention, starting with 7 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 1: my bff, my companion Mike and Padre, my co host 8 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:48,199 Speaker 1: for every episode, Professional Better Signing Hunter, Hello swim In, 9 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: Hello Hot Chad. Yes, people can definitely tell our excitement 10 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: compared to last year when there's a draft with a 11 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: bunch of quarterbacks. Chad, we obs us about it. It's 12 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: just such an it's so nice we have good quarterbacks 13 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: in a draft. Prepared to last year, we were like, 14 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: is he gonna be the first offensive linement taking? Which, yeah, 15 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: I mean you might like, but the average fans like 16 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 1: I do not care about offensive lineman. So definitely, this 17 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: year has been fun. All the trade rumors, all the drama. 18 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: Who three quarterbacks? No one really still knows who's going 19 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: number one. It's getting pretty crazier with what we got 20 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 1: twenty five twenty days left to the draft, so getting close. 21 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,039 Speaker 1: I can't freaking wait. It fills me with joy. It's 22 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 1: like it's the most you'll free light joy to have 23 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 1: this conversation. The stakes are so low, yet it's so 24 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:37,759 Speaker 1: much fun. Let's talk about some big news first. Okay, 25 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,479 Speaker 1: we know that a lot of you listen to us 26 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: through the Herd podcast feed. Starting April seventeenth. April seventeenth, 27 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: you will have to subscribe to the Favorites feed if 28 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: you want to hear this podcast. I've been telling you 29 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: guys for a couple of months. Subscribe directly to the 30 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 1: Favorites feed if you want to hear this podcast. You 31 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: will have to do at if you want to hear 32 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 1: us starting April seventeenth. The good news is our relationship 33 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: with The Volume continues. We will still be on AMP, 34 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:13,239 Speaker 1: we will still be all over The Volume's massive YouTube channel. 35 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: Come fall. You will still hear me on the Herd 36 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: podcast and other action analysts on other college football and 37 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 1: NFL podcasts. But if you want to listen to the 38 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: Favorites as a podcast wherever you get your podcasts, Spotify, Apple, 39 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:32,959 Speaker 1: you must subscribe to the Favorites. We're coming off the 40 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: Herd Feed. There's still a lot of good stuff on 41 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,359 Speaker 1: the Herd Feed. And I want to remind everybody right 42 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: now if you are not listening to Hoops Tonight with 43 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: Jason Timp who has been a regular Favorites podcast guests 44 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 1: in the Herd Feed from the volume, you're missing the wave. 45 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: He's amazing, So please do that. Please subscribe directly to 46 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 1: the Favorites Simon. We're going to get into the draft 47 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:02,959 Speaker 1: right now. We're going to get into it with Luke Swain, 48 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: also known as Vegas Refund. He was one of our 49 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: co hosts for our Action Island show all season long 50 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 1: during the NFL season. He models, mocks, bets, organizes thinks 51 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 1: about the draft in an obsessive way that would make 52 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 1: mel Kiper and Todd McShay feel like he is their son. 53 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 1: And Travis Reid. He's an Action Network og. He basically 54 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: owns the bet Labs database that we all pilfer from 55 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 1: profit from mention every single episode of every single podcast 56 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: of every single week during the NFL season. The guy knows. 57 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 1: The guy freaking knows, and we're lucky to have him 58 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: on the podcast. Travis, Welcome it, Chet. Yeah, you mentioned 59 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: we've kind of already been in this draft season for 60 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, but if your audience it's a 61 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: good time to jump. There's still plenty of time to 62 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: get down on some action now. And also just start 63 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: following this stuff, following the rumors on Twitter, following the 64 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 1: beat writers, see what they're saying about these players, and 65 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: try to get some good closing line value before the 66 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: draft starts in a few weeks. Before the show today, 67 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:25,839 Speaker 1: Luke sent me his draft spreadsheet. Luke, I want you 68 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: to explain to people how intricate what a tapestry this is. 69 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, and I want to say where 70 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 1: I got the idea, And a lot of credit goes 71 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 1: to Grinding the Mocks, which is a separate website that 72 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 1: basically accumulates like thousands of mock drafts. I mean, I 73 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:49,679 Speaker 1: was getting pretty annoyed with the website, even though it's great, 74 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,919 Speaker 1: because he wasn't refreshing it enough and you didn't know 75 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 1: what mocks he was using. So I decided I'm just 76 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:58,479 Speaker 1: gonna make my own mocked aggregate. And then there's a 77 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: couple of websites that eight mocks after they happen, So 78 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 1: I accumulated all those ratings and basically gave all the 79 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: mock drafts a mock rating, and I made my own 80 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: grinding the mocks out of the best mockers, and I 81 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: was able to refresh it as fast as I want, 82 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: and I've been doing it for a couple of years, 83 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: do it for NFL and NBA each year to kind 84 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:26,559 Speaker 1: of progressed, and it definitely is obsessive, but it really 85 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 1: just creates a power rating, almost as if you were 86 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: making a line for an NFL game. You take these 87 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 1: mock drafts and you basically get the average out of 88 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,840 Speaker 1: them all, and if his overunder opens up at seven 89 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 1: and his mock draft eedp is six and a half, like, 90 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:47,159 Speaker 1: there's your edge. It's not that simple, but it is 91 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 1: a great way to you form a foundation in terms 92 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: of like your perception of what you want to look 93 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 1: for and what we'll have value when it comes out 94 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 1: as we go. Yeah, you're a total freak. It's an amazing, 95 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: amazing piece of spreadsheet wizardry. I can get the other 96 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 1: guys on here an invite too. I feel bad, I 97 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 1: feel like they're left out right now, Well, let's send 98 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 1: it over together. You guys are phenoms and freaks of nature, 99 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 1: which is why it's great that You're hosting an NFL 100 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,799 Speaker 1: draft podcast on the Action Network podcast feed up until 101 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: the Draft. It's amazing content and amazing insight that will 102 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,039 Speaker 1: probably help people profit and learn a lot about betting 103 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: on the draft. Most important question, Simon, I want you 104 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 1: to ask the first question because you and I have 105 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: been talking about quarterbacks for a while. So you ask 106 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: whatever quarterback question you want of Travis and Luke right now. 107 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 1: Who the hell is going number one? Who's going number one? 108 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 1: Is this another Baker? Is this a Baker situation? Here 109 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 1: are we all? I think it's gonna be ceg in 110 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: the last minute. If it's Anthony Richardson, is it going 111 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: to really be Rice Young? I'm from your guy's perspective. 112 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 1: I mean, here we are in April. Who the hell 113 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 1: is going to be the number one picked? I mean, 114 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: I'll start with you, Travis, who do you think you mean? 115 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 1: Number one? So? CJ. CJ. Stroud is the favorite? I 116 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: think rightfully so. But I do agree that it's wide open. 117 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: There's no such thing as a lock this far out, 118 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 1: and we've seen some mocks recently. You know, have Bryce 119 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: Young go first? I do think Richardson is an outside shot. 120 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: I think if you wanted to bet him to go 121 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: number one. You needed that when it was like one 122 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: hundred to one, everyone kind of jumped on that train, 123 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: and now that that value is kind of sucked out. 124 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: So if you made me pick right now, I'm picking CJ. Stroud. 125 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: But again it's it's not a lock. I think if 126 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: you want to bet on Bryce Young, that's fine, But 127 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 1: if you made me pick, I'm going with Stroud going 128 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 1: first overall. Luke, Yeah, I've been on Stroud for a 129 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 1: couple of months now, which, like the other two have 130 00:07:57,240 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: you get a lot more noise where you talk about 131 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: out the crazy athleticism of Anthony Richardson and then he 132 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: got Bryce Young's crazy undersized, where Stroud like has been 133 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 1: kind of under the radar just because there's less to 134 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: talk about, which is exactly the reason I kind of 135 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: thought he was going to go one, because all the 136 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: talking points and the other two guys are thought of 137 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: as negatives, where Stroud just doesn't have the narratives that 138 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 1: are considered negative, which is exactly the reason why I 139 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: think he's going number one. And we have videos out there. 140 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 1: I think it's from forget which platform it is about 141 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 1: Josh mcdown loving Stroud, but it is every year there's 142 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:42,320 Speaker 1: a cycle where there's a favorite, and then someone else 143 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 1: becomes a favorite, which has become Stroud, and then you 144 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: have the random quarterback who is Hendon Hooker all of 145 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: a sudden and getting hype. So the odds are so 146 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,439 Speaker 1: sensitive that like Stroud probably shouldn't be a minus three 147 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: under favorite, Like we don't know, we will know, but 148 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: like Bryce was a heavy favor because we had multiple 149 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 1: months people betting into a highly sensitive market. Then all 150 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: of a sudden, you get the trade and everyone overreacts 151 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: and the odds flat and they might start coming down 152 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 1: because you can see some mock drafts right now starting 153 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: to favor Bryce, which I don't totally buy yet, but 154 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: it's definitely catching my attention. But I'm putting money on it, 155 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: which I wouldn't bet Strout at his current odds. It's Stroud. 156 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 1: So one of the most interesting pieces of news that's 157 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 1: come out this week is Jalen Carter and his agent 158 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 1: saying that he's not meeting with teams outside the top ten. 159 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 1: In the spreadsheet you sent me, Luke, his average big 160 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 1: board position was six, and that was a little bit 161 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: lower because McShay has him at thirteen, and the other 162 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 1: mockers basically have him between three and five. His mock 163 00:09:54,480 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 1: expected draft position was it about seven. So do you 164 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 1: think that Jalen Carter falls out of the top ten? 165 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: Do you think people get scared away by the character issues? 166 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 1: Where's the value in making a bet on Jalen Carter 167 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:12,719 Speaker 1: right now? So I don't think he gets out of 168 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 1: the ten. Where Jeremiah was actually just on the Pat 169 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 1: mccaffee show and he said that he's not taking meetings 170 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 1: outside of the top ten because the Eagles gave him 171 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: a promise if he gets there. So I think it 172 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: is the top ten. But the only reason he's even 173 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:34,199 Speaker 1: at six on the Big Board rankings is because McShay, 174 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 1: like one of his stances has been against Jalen Carter's character, 175 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 1: Like he was the first one to come out before 176 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 1: any of the like the arrest in the cart, like 177 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: the speeding to whatever it was, came out and everyone 178 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: was kind of calling him crazy and no one had 179 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: he was correct and he stood on that hill. So 180 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 1: I do think his ranking you have to take with 181 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 1: a grain assault where these issues any other player, he's 182 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: falling out of the tron probably but Carter is that 183 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: much of a freak, and he fits the Seahawks and 184 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,199 Speaker 1: the Lions so well with what they need and how 185 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,560 Speaker 1: they play. There is a guy, Rob Statton, who is 186 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:14,559 Speaker 1: a Seahawks blogger and probably one of the more respected 187 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 1: people that I tune into on what they write, and 188 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 1: he has a firm stance on them not taking the 189 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 1: Seahawks not taking Carter at five because of the character 190 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 1: issues and because of I guess Snyder and his new 191 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: outlook on who he's drafting with character, because everyone thinks 192 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:38,439 Speaker 1: that the Seahawks are taking love. He's questionable character players 193 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: based off of their history. And if it wasn't for 194 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 1: Rob Statton having this strong stance, I would be all 195 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: over the under seven and a half right now. But 196 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:50,560 Speaker 1: I just can't. I just I think he's gonna go 197 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 1: to the Seahawks are lines. I don't even think he 198 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 1: makes it to the Bears or Eagles. He's that good. 199 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 1: That's fascinating. But like the mocks, and the problem with 200 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: the mocks right now is we have the Cardinals at 201 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 1: three and they haven't traded yet. Where all the mock 202 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: drafts who aren't making trades, which I love, I hate 203 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 1: trades are putting Willow Anderson at three and then you 204 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 1: have Jaalen Tyree, etc. At four and five, where if 205 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 1: the Cardinals, as we expect, make a trade, you assume 206 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:29,080 Speaker 1: a team's going into three for a quarterback, which if one, two, three, 207 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 1: four go quarterback, that is pushing everyone up. Where right 208 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:37,959 Speaker 1: now will Anderson's going three in mocks with the trade, 209 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 1: he would go five. So if he goes five, then 210 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: you got Jaylen Carter at six, and guys like Tyree 211 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 1: just get pushed back, which is the problem, which I 212 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:52,440 Speaker 1: think is why we haven't gotten as many over runners 213 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,440 Speaker 1: as we want. But to me, the Raiders are the 214 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 1: raiders and Eagles are the two dominoes that decide the 215 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:04,440 Speaker 1: entire draft, right Simon. Earlier in the show, Travis mentioned 216 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 1: following now for rumors and things like that. So Simon first, 217 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 1: then Travis, we talked about green on Green Dot Daily 218 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: the other day. Some rumors with Tennessee potentially moving up 219 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 1: to number three. You like the combination of Tennessee at 220 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: number three and that bet. How are rumors playing into 221 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 1: how you're making decisions about betting right now? Yeah? We 222 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 1: bet a lot off rumors. I think mean you joke 223 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 1: all the time, it really is this time here is 224 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 1: who you know because a lot of people are gonna 225 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: feed you bad info, and there's some people that are 226 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:41,199 Speaker 1: getting you really good info. They're not going to keep 227 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 1: from themselves because you're gonna trade information with them. And 228 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 1: I think it came out you know that Vrabel has 229 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 1: been interested interested in these quarterbacks, right, he's been gone 230 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 1: to their pro days and then we've kind of seen 231 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 1: odds shifting this week. It's because more and more noises 232 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 1: being heard now of no Tennessee wants to be in 233 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 1: that third spot. There's a quarterback day like in this draft, 234 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 1: and you look at their division and makes sense, right, 235 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:06,319 Speaker 1: we're talking about Tennessee has gotten there. They were at 236 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 1: one point they were arguably the best Sea then FC right, 237 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 1: they were the one seed. They weren't the best team, 238 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: but they had gotten that one seed. It kind of 239 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 1: fell apart from there. Now everything's fallen apart right there. 240 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 1: Get they got rid of a J. Brown, Derek Hennry's 241 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: kind of passed his prime now most of us assuming 242 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: he'll be traded this year or this is his final 243 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 1: season in Tennessee. It seems like a team they'll be 244 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 1: in need of a quarterback. So it's making sense where 245 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 1: people keep saying they're going to trade into that third 246 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 1: spot and the fact that they do love Anthony Richardson. 247 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: So to me, if Bryce Young false that three spot, 248 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: if Anthey Richardson falls that three spot, easily could see 249 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 1: them being a team that goes in there and gets 250 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 1: that pick. So to me, untry to hear what Travis 251 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: to say about it, but you know they're plus two 252 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: thirty right now to make that pick of the third 253 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: spot at Fandel And to me, you know, they're a 254 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 1: team that makes sense in that division. You got Trevor Lawrence. 255 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 1: So if they moved in that three spot, they'd have 256 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: Houston ahead of them, which obviously is drafting a quarterback 257 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: we think or they maybe they're they're not. Then you 258 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 1: have then in the three spot. Then you're right behind 259 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 1: me of the Colts. So pretty crazy. FC South, they're 260 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 1: all going in on quarterbacks. They're all, you know, trying 261 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: to make that next move. I just I want to 262 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: believe it's Tennessee. But like people keep saying, it's all 263 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 1: rumors chat everything we're hearing out is just strictly rumors, 264 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 1: nothing set in stone. So the reason I'm ben is 265 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 1: just feels a good value of two thirty. When there's smoke, 266 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 1: there's fire. There's a lot of smoke right now in 267 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 1: Tennessee moving into that three old. So what do you 268 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 1: think about this going on right now? Travis? Yeah, I 269 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 1: agree with you, And it's a good point with India 270 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 1: at four because if you do make that trade, you 271 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 1: prevent them from getting that third quarterback, which there's a 272 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 1: clear tier of those top three and then leaves at four. 273 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: So if you get into that third spot, you prevent 274 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: one of your division rivals from getting that. So it 275 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense of why they do that. 276 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: You mentioned smoke. There's a lot of smoke. They don't 277 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: like Tannehill. They drafted Malik Willis that they didn't work out, 278 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: he got Benchford, Josh Dobbs like, so their quarterback is 279 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: just a mess. So it makes it's like why they 280 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 1: are desperate for a quarterback. So I think that trade 281 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 1: up makes a lot of sense. Kind of the anti 282 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: smoke I guess was the Raiders early maybe they would 283 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: be the one that trade up. Now it seems like 284 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: that has cooled off where they're just going to stick 285 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: with Garoppolo as maybe as a bridge year gap year 286 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: to maybe next year, or maybe even wait for two. 287 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: So I think if you know, if Vegas is out, 288 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: it's really just between do the Colts want to trade 289 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 1: up one spot. We've seen that happen before too, just 290 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: to ensure you get your quarterback. And it might just 291 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 1: be Arizona playing those two teams off of each other 292 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: as well, like, Hey, we're trying to get the best 293 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 1: deal out of one of these two. We know one 294 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 1: of you needs a quarterback. Give us your best offer, Travis, 295 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: give me your best your most favorite bet right now 296 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: on the draft that you've either made or are still 297 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 1: looking to make and are waiting on. Value. Well, the 298 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: best one we made was on our podcast a few 299 00:16:57,080 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 1: weeks ago, was when Stroud was an underdog to be 300 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 1: the numb run pick. So that that's the best one, 301 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:04,880 Speaker 1: and that's where I kind of mentioned the closing line 302 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 1: value early as far as best like right now that 303 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: you can still make. I still think Jackson Smith and 304 00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: Jigba for first receiver overall minus two hundred, he's pretty 305 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:19,679 Speaker 1: clearly in that he's going to go first. There's a 306 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: wide gap. I'm not privy to Luke's magical spreadsheet yet, 307 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,680 Speaker 1: but I'm assuming it has it has a similar gap 308 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,680 Speaker 1: between him and the second best receiver. So I still 309 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: think that's a bet you can make right now that 310 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: shows plenty of value. All the question marks were about 311 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: his health and everything, because he didn't he missed a 312 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: lot of the season, those are pretty much gone away. 313 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: So I think he's pretty clearly that top receiver in 314 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 1: this class, and I still think he's a value. You 315 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: guys get into this because you find the value or 316 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 1: you love the draft so much, and this sort of 317 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 1: became a way to study it. No, because it's the 318 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 1: only thing you can bet on where you can find 319 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: out the answers to the test before you take it. 320 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 1: It's that easy, Like you can bet on that you 321 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 1: can have the perfect beat and in a football game 322 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 1: and Josh Allen gets hurt on the first play and 323 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:17,199 Speaker 1: that bet is done. Where the amount of variables in 324 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 1: that scenario compared to something like the NFL Draft, where 325 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,399 Speaker 1: good I'll just has to take that card to the podium, 326 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 1: it's not even comparable. If you, like Simon said, like 327 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,199 Speaker 1: if you have good info, if you are doing your 328 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: due diligence, like a minus two hundred bet in the 329 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 1: draft very well might as well be minus infinity. Like 330 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:40,640 Speaker 1: a minus two hundred bet in the draft doesn't equal 331 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:42,920 Speaker 1: a minus two hundred bet in a regular sports game. 332 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 1: If you have info or you feel confident, everything aligns, 333 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: like minus two hundred, minus three hundred, whatever it is, Like, 334 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 1: might as well be minus infinity, because like, you know 335 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:57,920 Speaker 1: what's going to happen. And the most important thing to 336 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: take when you're betting on the draft is your personal 337 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: opinion does not matter. You're not the one making these picks. 338 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:08,719 Speaker 1: Your job is to figure out the front office and 339 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 1: what they're going to be doing. Like, if you think 340 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 1: player X is better than player Y, and you're gonna 341 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: bet player X because you watched all his YouTube highlight 342 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: videos or whatever it is you think he's gonna go here, 343 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 1: just stop, Just put your phone down and dump at 344 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 1: that way. But yeah, it's just like the NFL and 345 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,479 Speaker 1: the NBA Draft are the only two things where you 346 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: can get the outcome and you can bet off of it, 347 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:40,120 Speaker 1: and I think books are. It just scares me because 348 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 1: I love it and it can it's very profitable, but 349 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 1: every year that passes, I'm terrified that they're just gonna 350 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:53,919 Speaker 1: stop offering them, because we've seen books like Circa offered 351 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,400 Speaker 1: the biggest menu of NFL draft props. The next year, 352 00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 1: they didn't offer him at all points bet off for 353 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:04,360 Speaker 1: the big menu last year. This year they're not offering them. 354 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 1: So it's a very advantageous and niche market. And with 355 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: all these states becoming legal, Ohio is offering them, Massachusetts 356 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: is offering them. You can definitely make some money. Well, Simon, 357 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 1: do you feel the same way. I always think back 358 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:25,120 Speaker 1: to the mac Jones Trey Lance at number three bet 359 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:29,679 Speaker 1: that you made and being on it, but also you 360 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: were not feeling like you knew the answers to the 361 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,640 Speaker 1: test when they called the name, because you were pretty 362 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 1: anxious and I think blacked out and that didn't actually 363 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 1: hear the name. Yeah, that was unique though. That was 364 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,679 Speaker 1: one of those where it was literally me telling everyone 365 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,439 Speaker 1: they were wrong, and it's a million people saying, who 366 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: the hell are you like who? And that's that was 367 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,200 Speaker 1: a fair argument against me. It was just like, all right, 368 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 1: I get it. I'm not some targing to sha, I'm 369 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 1: not on the ESPN telling you no, mac Jones is 370 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 1: going third. Overall, the deal is done. With the forty Niners, 371 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 1: and you know Chris Simms, he was leading that parade 372 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,400 Speaker 1: the whole time. So that was definitely a unique scenario 373 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:09,640 Speaker 1: where I had info that all that was just BS 374 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 1: and that Trey Lance was their guy, and then a 375 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 1: week before it was like, oh no, this is legit. 376 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 1: This is definitely Trey Lance, and the books are way off. 377 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:21,000 Speaker 1: I think even before an hour before I remember having 378 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 1: this memory, it was still plus one seventy five over 379 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,639 Speaker 1: three and a half for Mac Jones. So literally the 380 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 1: books had no idea either. They were still all in 381 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 1: that Mac was gonna a third pick. So that was 382 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 1: one of those where it's like that's why I started 383 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,640 Speaker 1: doubting myself Chad, where it's like, holy shit, I am, 384 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 1: I do think you were. There was a moment where 385 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 1: you were very right, Like I think the Niners traded 386 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 1: out for Mac and changed their mind, which I think 387 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: is very similar to what the Panthers could have going 388 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,160 Speaker 1: on right now. And that's what I was honestly about 389 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 1: to get through, where like I'm feeling confident if Bryce 390 00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 1: Young goes number one, I'm easily looking at six figure 391 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 1: loss easily. So that's one of those where I'm I'm 392 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,159 Speaker 1: not gonna lie. I'm gonna be stressed out because a 393 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 1: lot of rumors with a lot of noise our Bryce 394 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,880 Speaker 1: is gonna go number one, and I've been making beds 395 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,639 Speaker 1: for about two months now that he wouldn't be. So 396 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 1: that's definitely gonna be a draft here. I'm gonna be stressing, 397 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,920 Speaker 1: just like the other one where I did, like Chad said, 398 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: I heard them say mac Jones to the forty nine ers, 399 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: like I was that broken mentally from not sleeping. Haven't 400 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: way too much money on it. So I'm stopping myself 401 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 1: because I'm honestly I did a hedge on CJ, and 402 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 1: I was just like, all right, I have a position now. 403 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: I still believe I am right that Bryce won't be 404 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 1: going number one. Like the guys talked about, you really 405 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 1: never know until we see, you know, until we wake 406 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,160 Speaker 1: up Thursday morning on the draft day and I see 407 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: CJ minus five hundred or off the board, then I'll 408 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:54,120 Speaker 1: feel good. Until then it still might be bright hung. 409 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,200 Speaker 1: So that's why I feel like this draft's really fun 410 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,719 Speaker 1: exciting right now because we there's other positions like these 411 00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 1: guys about. There's a couple of things we already kind 412 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: of know things are trying to fill out here. No 413 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 1: one knows what's about to happen as number one pick. 414 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 1: And that's what we love in these kind of drafts 415 00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 1: where you can make a lot of money going to 416 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,520 Speaker 1: cherry and kind of fade in the public in these drafts, 417 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 1: or you know, you can trust the info you're giving 418 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:20,199 Speaker 1: from the general public and the books like Vegas, just 419 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 1: talking about the books get killed a lot of times. 420 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 1: So as much as I love the draft, it's it's 421 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 1: tough where a lot of these books might limit you 422 00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:29,719 Speaker 1: to one hundred to two hundred dollars. So that's one 423 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,959 Speaker 1: of those I try to tell people you find a 424 00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 1: good number, shop around, you have to shop around. We 425 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 1: always start at shopping around. The draft is tenfold. So 426 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:42,439 Speaker 1: we're sponsor by Fandor we're gonna talk FanDuel lines. Please 427 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 1: please shop around because different books will have different lines 428 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:49,160 Speaker 1: for all these kind of bets. Yeah, can't emphasize that enough. 429 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,199 Speaker 1: Like Luke said, the draft is so volatile. Books are 430 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 1: always changing. That are feelings and strategy. When it comes 431 00:23:56,080 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 1: to book and bets for the draft, they are available 432 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 1: in different mark What the markets that are available are 433 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 1: different from book to book and state by state. Travis 434 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 1: and Luke, have you seen a lot of or any 435 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:18,679 Speaker 1: draft position over unders posted at any books? If not, 436 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 1: when do you think we can expect to see that? 437 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: I haven't seen it yet. Okay, yes, Draft Kings has. 438 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:28,880 Speaker 1: I think Draft Kings hays like five up right now, 439 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 1: which at this time last year we had way more. 440 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 1: And I think it has to do with the Cardinals 441 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 1: or they're just I mean, they're definitely coming soon. DraftKings 442 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 1: has Will Anderson, Anthony Richardson, Jalen Carter, Christen Gonzalez, and 443 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,920 Speaker 1: Broderick Jones and Zaah Flowers, which was random as hell, 444 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 1: but books now, in what I've noticed the last year 445 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,159 Speaker 1: is two years ago. If they get money, they'd be 446 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 1: moving like the line, so if it opened at ten 447 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 1: ten and a half, that go to eleven and a half, 448 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,399 Speaker 1: twelve and a half, etc. Now they're just juicing the 449 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,640 Speaker 1: hell out of them. So instead of moving the line, 450 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 1: they're just making the side that's getting bet minus four 451 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 1: hundred and almost like kind of blocking people out, which 452 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:22,480 Speaker 1: currently every overunder is heavily juiced. The only one Broderick Jones, 453 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:24,879 Speaker 1: opened up at twelve and a half. Now it's thirteen 454 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,920 Speaker 1: and a half, but I think we're gonna start seeing 455 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:33,439 Speaker 1: them with basketball ending we're getting closed. It's definitely should 456 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: please because that's that's where that's my bread and butter. 457 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 1: Are the overunders? So are there? This is an interesting 458 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 1: question because we know people are listening to this podcast 459 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 1: because we are market movers, we are market makers. We 460 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 1: see it happen. Tell me the bet you've made so 461 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,640 Speaker 1: far that you're most excited about, and the bet you're tracking. 462 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 1: The bet that I'm made that I'm most excited about, 463 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: probably Titans quarterback Like that's like if Titans go QB 464 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:12,639 Speaker 1: and it's Levis or Are, like, I might need to 465 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:17,360 Speaker 1: be revived because I'll be that excited tracking right now. 466 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: I have a lot of bets. Um. The one I 467 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,680 Speaker 1: do like, which I took a little bit of it, 468 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,800 Speaker 1: but Eagles to go offensive line is one that I'm 469 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 1: starting to feel really strongly about, which I think it 470 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,480 Speaker 1: was plus five hundred a couple of days ago. It's 471 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,560 Speaker 1: come down a little. I like plus four hundred. But 472 00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 1: I do think Scarronsky at ten if he's there, which 473 00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 1: I think the Bears gonna go Paris as long as 474 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: the Raiders don't go all line, which I think the 475 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 1: Raiders are very much in best player available mode, so 476 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,919 Speaker 1: I don't see them going Paris where Bears go Paris. 477 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: Scarronsky just makes so much sense at ten for me, 478 00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 1: where like Lucas fan now is the very trendy pick, 479 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 1: which we are at a peak, like group think mock 480 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 1: draft mode right now, which is most copycat product that exists, 481 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 1: and in a generally considered weak class, there has never 482 00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 1: been a more dangerous group think that can't exist in 483 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 1: terms of what the consensus is. Where normally, if a 484 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:28,840 Speaker 1: player five through seven in every other draft, they're just 485 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,440 Speaker 1: they are ranked five, six, seven, Is that's that? Where 486 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 1: this year five through seven is a whole different ballgame. 487 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,639 Speaker 1: The middle of this portion compared to other years is 488 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,920 Speaker 1: not as strong, and one team could have this player 489 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:46,760 Speaker 1: at the top of their board and another team could 490 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:48,280 Speaker 1: have the same player at the bottom of their board. 491 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,760 Speaker 1: So the chaos creates opportunity when betting the draft, there 492 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 1: was no chaos, we would have nothing to beout. They 493 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,920 Speaker 1: just be offering mine us a million line, so makes 494 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 1: them more leverageable. But just we need the over runners 495 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 1: like please, and I'm almost. I'm like, I stopped asking 496 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,280 Speaker 1: because I feel like we're pushing him away, but we're 497 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 1: getting close. No, my favorite thing I saw that would 498 00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:13,200 Speaker 1: just make the whole thing go to hell everyone's mock 499 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 1: draft would be the Seattle Seahawks taking Robinson, the running 500 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,400 Speaker 1: back from Texas at pick five. That would just be 501 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,840 Speaker 1: everything I dream of, pure chaos where it's like all 502 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:23,920 Speaker 1: all the unlytic people actually hate it and anyone that 503 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: did a mocked draft laps they hate because be like, 504 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 1: why is this guy going this high? But I'm I'm 505 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 1: an Ingreden with a lot of guys I haven't ranked 506 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:31,640 Speaker 1: as my third best player in this draft. I mean, 507 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,800 Speaker 1: he is one of the best running backs I've ever 508 00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 1: seen coming out of college. Show as much as I'm 509 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 1: shifting on people knocking him too, the Eagles at pick ten, 510 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 1: I get it. Like this kid, he literally is like 511 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 1: Adrian Peterson. He has a unique running style and he's 512 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 1: really hard to bring down. So this I love this draft. 513 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:49,800 Speaker 1: That's why I'm excited we're gonna break it down if 514 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,240 Speaker 1: these next one weeks because this is a really really 515 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 1: fun draft. A lot of moving pieces and a lot 516 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 1: of you know, people just don't know, Like you just said, 517 00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,040 Speaker 1: five through seven, everyone has different mocks. Everyone's kind of 518 00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 1: moving pieces around, different players in different spots. All it 519 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,440 Speaker 1: takes one guy outside people's top ten to come into 520 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,320 Speaker 1: that top you know, five, seven through seven, that'll shake 521 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,680 Speaker 1: up everyone's mock draft. So just a really really crazy year. 522 00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 1: It's tied an into I had the widest range of 523 00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 1: outcomes of any player in this draft. Robinson, Yeah, Bejan 524 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 1: Robinson could go third, he could go twenty fifth, he 525 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 1: could go a lot of teams in between, because it 526 00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,840 Speaker 1: really just depends on how much these teams are buying 527 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 1: into analytics that running backs don't matter at all and 528 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 1: not to take one in the first round, versus they're 529 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 1: tape guys that look at them and go yeah, but 530 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,000 Speaker 1: he can do this and he can do that. So 531 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 1: it'll be really interesting to see where he goes. We 532 00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,320 Speaker 1: talked about this. We think he's one of the few 533 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 1: guys you probably can't bet because he has that such 534 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 1: wide range of outcomes, Like you can't whatever is over under? 535 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 1: Is it? Like you said, it could be five under, 536 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 1: it could be five over. He's the toughest prospect to 537 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,880 Speaker 1: nail down where to go, just because we don't know 538 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: where the NFL use the running back position right now. God, 539 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:09,520 Speaker 1: I mean Jem I had We've been on jem I 540 00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 1: had the greatest quote over the combine where if you're 541 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,440 Speaker 1: a team that is win now mode, it's okay to 542 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 1: take a running back, or if you're not winning now, 543 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 1: you're just wasting his prime years. Where teams like the Lions, 544 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:27,520 Speaker 1: which I see a couple of Lions like Lions and Eagles, 545 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 1: I think are the trendy bijon picks because they are 546 00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 1: and win now, um, But anywhere else it's just he's 547 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 1: like breaking standard deviation. But you imagine on the lines though, 548 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 1: were the Eagles, that would be amazing. It would be 549 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 1: I would love to see it. So why wouldn't the 550 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 1: Lions or Eagles do that? It makes as you think 551 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:51,200 Speaker 1: about it, it makes total sense. They are stick two picks, 552 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,640 Speaker 1: and they have two picks too, they're stacked along the 553 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 1: offensive line. You take a flyer with one of those picks, 554 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,560 Speaker 1: You take a guy who could be a transcendent talent 555 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 1: and make your team better immediately. Because you know these 556 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,680 Speaker 1: running backs the last four years at the most, look 557 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 1: at Ezekiel Elliott, he was he gained eighteen hundred yards 558 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,760 Speaker 1: one year, the next year he's toasted. The Eagles are 559 00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:13,840 Speaker 1: the most like analytical draft like draft team. There is 560 00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,680 Speaker 1: where I think I saw a sweet where it's like 561 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 1: it's O line, D line, that's all the how he does. Yeah, 562 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,760 Speaker 1: it's like, is Beijion good enough that they throw away 563 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 1: the analytics, which Lion's at eighteen I think makes sense. 564 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:34,239 Speaker 1: That's like his sweet spot Eagles, Like he won't be 565 00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,560 Speaker 1: there for the Eagles second pick at ten is another 566 00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 1: sweet spot. Yeah, I mean it'd be. He's that good. 567 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 1: I'd love to see it. I don't see him making 568 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,920 Speaker 1: it out of the twenties. Ooh, I just don't. He's 569 00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:50,760 Speaker 1: gonna end up on like the least fun team, like 570 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 1: the Falcons or something like. It'll just ruin all the hype. 571 00:31:56,360 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 1: Well then he'll just disappear forever, all right, Fellas, I 572 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:02,920 Speaker 1: think we got everything we need from the draft, at 573 00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,120 Speaker 1: least for this week, until we get to it again 574 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks. A reminder thanks to Travis Read, 575 00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:13,880 Speaker 1: thanks to Luke Swain, Thanks to Matt Mitchell for producing 576 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 1: the podcast. A reminder of a couple of things. One 577 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 1: we are off next week. 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