Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleven brio to Washington,
Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundred to San Francisco,
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Speaker 1: one nineteen and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plusathen
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. This is taking Stock. I'm Kathleen Hayes
Speaker 1: along with pim Fox. Janet Yellen speaks and says another
Speaker 1: rate hike in the next few months appropriate we get
Speaker 1: revised first quarter g D p PM. We've got a come,
Speaker 1: got a triffic one to punch in this half hour
Speaker 1: to look at all this stuff, what it means for
Speaker 1: the economy, for the Fed and the markets. Yes, we'll
Speaker 1: be speaking with Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG. Right now,
Speaker 1: let's speak with Katherine Cowdery in the Bloomberg newsroom with
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business Flash. Thank you him and Bloomberg. Taking
Speaker 1: Stock is brought to you by National Realty Returns on
Speaker 1: cash and rented real estate. Find them at n r I,
Speaker 1: a dot net. Well stocks never their earlier advanced. The
Speaker 1: dollaris send it as gains and treasuries fell after FED
Speaker 1: Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said an interest rate increase in
Speaker 1: the coming months may be appropriate. Echoing recently marks by policymakers.
Speaker 1: Speaking at Harvard University, yell And stopped short of giving
Speaker 1: an explicit hint that the FED would act next month.
Speaker 1: Julian emanuel Us Equity and Derivative Strategy to V says
Speaker 1: it is time for the Fed to take action. The
Speaker 1: data is supportive, the economy is getting better on virtually
Speaker 1: all fronts. The GDP was revised higher this morning. Housing
Speaker 1: has been very strong, the confidence numbers are good, the
Speaker 1: retail sales are good, and it's it's time for investors
Speaker 1: who actually, perversely are are still very cautious right now. Uh,
Speaker 1: They're going to realize that we check the markets every
Speaker 1: fifteen minute throughout the trading day. DAL Industrial Average is
Speaker 1: up twenty three points an eighth of a percent is
Speaker 1: trading at seventeen thousand, eight hundred fifty one. Smp F
Speaker 1: I Funded up five points at quarter percent to two
Speaker 1: thousand ninety five. Fanasta ACT is up twenty three points
Speaker 1: half a percent, trading at four West Texas Intermediate Crude
Speaker 1: oil down twenty one cents a barrow for tens of
Speaker 1: a percent at seven s about, gold is down eleven
Speaker 1: dollars ten cents a ounce at twelve eleven sixty, and
Speaker 1: the tenure Treasury is down six thirty seconds with the
Speaker 1: yield of one point eight five percent. Among today's top
Speaker 1: business stories, Key corps four point one billion dollar bid
Speaker 1: to buy First Niagara Financial is apparently facing some questions
Speaker 1: concerning a federal investigation into First Niagara's minority lending practices.
Speaker 1: Two people familiar with the matter say the Justice Department
Speaker 1: began examining more than two years ago whether First Niagara
Speaker 1: violated a federal lauthor prohibits discrimination in issuing loans. It's
Speaker 1: two thirty two on Wall Street. Let's get enough date
Speaker 1: if some of the other stories were following. On Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Radio today, Katherine, thank you from the Bloomberg News Room.
Speaker 1: I'd Mark Crumpton, Egypt' chief investigator says this search for
Speaker 1: the egypt airplane that crashed last week, killing all sixty
Speaker 1: six people on board as narrowed to a three mile
Speaker 1: wide area in the Mediterranean Sea that based on signals
Speaker 1: from the plans emergency beacon. That information was from the
Speaker 1: day of the crash. May nine, no new signals have
Speaker 1: been received. President Obama made history today in Hiroshima, laying
Speaker 1: a wreath at the site of the first to S
Speaker 1: nuclear bomba attack. The President urged moral progress alongside scientific achievements,
Speaker 1: mindset about war itself, to prevent conflicts through diplomas, and
Speaker 1: strive to end conflicts after they've begun. Mr Obama is
Speaker 1: the first sitting US president to visit Hiroshima. He didn't
Speaker 1: apologize for the U S action, but said the memory
Speaker 1: of the atomic bombing must never fade. Speaking at the
Speaker 1: National Press Club today, CDC director Thomas Frieden said the
Speaker 1: US now has its first case of a patient infected
Speaker 1: with bacteria found to be resistant to all known antibiotics.
Speaker 1: Medicine cabinet is empty for some patients. It is the
Speaker 1: end of the route for antibiotics unless we act urgently.
Speaker 1: City Bike says it topped to daily ridership record on Wednesday,
Speaker 1: when more than fifty three thousand people took out bikes.
Speaker 1: It also happened to be the warmest day in the
Speaker 1: city since last fall. The previous record was fifty two thousand,
Speaker 1: seven oh six set last September. Global News twenty four
Speaker 1: hours a day powered by our twenty four hundred journalists
Speaker 1: in more than one hundred fifty news deuros around the world.
Speaker 1: From the Bloomberg news Room by Mark Crumpton, Catherine, thank you,
Speaker 1: and recapping down industrial leverages up twenty three points, trading
Speaker 1: at seventeen thousand, eight hundred fifty one s andp f
Speaker 1: I funded up five point to two thousand. Nassack hired
Speaker 1: by twenty three trading at four And that's a Bloomberg
Speaker 1: business flash. You're listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hayes
Speaker 1: and Pimpbox on Bloomberg Radio. Speaking at a panel discussion
Speaker 1: at the Ratcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University,
Speaker 1: fed A Reserve Chair town At Yelling said that a
Speaker 1: rate increase would be a p opriate probably in the
Speaker 1: coming months, if the economy and labor market continue to strengthen.
Speaker 1: Let's find out more and get her thoughts on Chair
Speaker 1: Yellen's conversation. Want to introduce Constance Hunter, Chief Economist KPMG.
Speaker 1: You can follow Constance Hunter on Twitter at Constance Hunter. Alright,
Speaker 1: Constance Hunter, what do you make of Chair Yellen's conversation
Speaker 1: and comments about the appropriate increase in interest rates probably
Speaker 1: in the coming months. Yeah, Hi, pam Um Kathleen. He's
Speaker 1: just just tweeted and asked me if I thought her
Speaker 1: comments were hawkish, dovish, wonkish or impish, and uh, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with dovish, because if she were hawkish, she
Speaker 1: would be saying things like it's appropriate for the SAID
Speaker 1: to raise now because it takes time for monetary policy
Speaker 1: to work through the system. She'd be legitimizing a rate
Speaker 1: hike um in in more concrete and um assertive lane
Speaker 1: which and she's definitely in a wait and see mode.
Speaker 1: But let me prepare you that there's a very good
Speaker 1: chance we will raise, right, So she doesn't want to
Speaker 1: be the markets to be surprised if the Said does
Speaker 1: raise in June or July, and I think they probably will.
Speaker 1: The thing that could hold them back is what's going
Speaker 1: on in the UK with the vote for England to
Speaker 1: remain or leave the European Union. Because should that vote
Speaker 1: go for UH route leaving the European Union, and it
Speaker 1: happens just the day after the meeting, um, so they,
Speaker 1: depending on how the polling is, they may wait to
Speaker 1: find out that result because it would cause havoc in
Speaker 1: the market to New yor term. So let's take a look.
Speaker 1: And I'm happy hear you say that, because we're kind
Speaker 1: of joking the top of the show. I would have
Speaker 1: lost money if I was a trader this afternoon because
Speaker 1: I was listening to her, going gosh, she doesn't sound
Speaker 1: talkished to me. She almost sounds stublish. So I'm happy
Speaker 1: that you are an expert FED watcher, and that's how
Speaker 1: you're taking it on it too. But there are people
Speaker 1: who think that she was on the hawker side GDP
Speaker 1: though zero. The talk is to the she talk is
Speaker 1: compared to expectations, right, there's an expectation was that the
Speaker 1: FED was on you know, hold for the whole year.
Speaker 1: She's not hawk ish, but she's dove is compared to
Speaker 1: four rate hikes as of September. She's dove is compared
Speaker 1: to some of the other members of the f O
Speaker 1: M c UM. But I don't think that means if
Speaker 1: she raises in June July, there's a big good chance
Speaker 1: they only have one rate hike this year. So the
Speaker 1: GDP number, what do you have to say about that?
Speaker 1: We know she's concerned about low productivity. She mentioned how
Speaker 1: output has been unusually low in this recovery. But what
Speaker 1: do you see constance as you pull apart all these
Speaker 1: signals in that report and others. How how much are
Speaker 1: you going to pick up in the second and third
Speaker 1: quarters in the FED chair watching that? Yeah? Absolutely, so,
Speaker 1: so let me go through. There's there's the there's this
Speaker 1: sort of not such great components of GDP which is
Speaker 1: exactly what you mentioned, and and that stems from corporate
Speaker 1: investment which has been really weak. And if we looked through,
Speaker 1: you know, there's a bunch of different components of corporate investment,
Speaker 1: so UM, there's investment in structures equipment UM, and and
Speaker 1: that is where we see real weakness from the fall
Speaker 1: in the in the oil price and the fall and
Speaker 1: investment in the oil and gas sector. But there's another
Speaker 1: section so that could be viewed as temporary, and it
Speaker 1: certainly had a big drag on GDP UM in almost
Speaker 1: seventy four bases points. So we had that not fallen
Speaker 1: as much we were to see much younger growth last year.
Speaker 1: But there's another component that is intellectual property products, so
Speaker 1: software research and development UM, entertainment, literary and artistic UH
Speaker 1: investment and those first two software research and development have
Speaker 1: not been as strong as we would like to see,
Speaker 1: and those are the things that help determine future productivity growth.
Speaker 1: So she has reason to be concerned there. How some
Speaker 1: wage increases, if there are any tell us about that
Speaker 1: and how that figures into your thinking. So well, when
Speaker 1: we think about um reaches and the relationship between inflation
Speaker 1: and the relationship between growth, which is what the FED
Speaker 1: is looking at, we need to look not just at
Speaker 1: wrage wrage growth, but we need to add waste growth
Speaker 1: to jobs growth to get total income games because that
Speaker 1: is where the pressure comes through the economy and impacts inflation.
Speaker 1: So when we look at those two things together, we
Speaker 1: get about a four and a half percent increase year
Speaker 1: over year, and that's what we were getting last year.
Speaker 1: We're looking to continue to get that this year, and
Speaker 1: that is enough, UH in my view, to support some
Speaker 1: pressure on prices. Now, the most reclent PC gator released
Speaker 1: this morning doesn't necessarily support that, and that's because goods
Speaker 1: costs have gone way down in the last quarter UM.
Speaker 1: But when you look at at the consumptument is happening,
Speaker 1: we're seeing households in the last two quarters really shift
Speaker 1: a lot of their consumption to services and that pressure
Speaker 1: on services prices. We are services economy is I think
Speaker 1: what's going to push the FED over the edge to
Speaker 1: raving to raving rates sooner and that is the summer
Speaker 1: juno July for the hike. Is that the only one
Speaker 1: this year or will it be more September. I think
Speaker 1: it's pretty likely that's the only one this year. One
Speaker 1: of the things that Yellen has said consistently is if
Speaker 1: we go sooner, we can go slower. If we wait
Speaker 1: too long, we're going to have to go faster. And
Speaker 1: I think, all things being equal, for preferences to go
Speaker 1: sooner and slower, slower and sooner. Well, thanks very much,
Speaker 1: Constance Hunter, Chief Economist, KPMG. Again, pm I feel a
Speaker 1: little bit vindicated that I was not the only person
Speaker 1: listen to Janet yelling. You thought, gee, she didn't Sunhawk.
Speaker 1: I think maybe she sounded bevish. Well, but we are.
Speaker 1: We're gonna put this another very Another person who watches
Speaker 1: all of this very closely will probably ask us about
Speaker 1: every guest on this show today what they made a
Speaker 1: Janet Yellen? And if you want to tweet to at
Speaker 1: pim Fox, at caltheen underscore Hayes Feel Free. This is
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