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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: As we come off a very important day in Washington

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Speaker 2: yesterday that was shrouded by so much noise in the

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Speaker 2: political space. In any other world, a trilateral meeting between

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Speaker 2: the United States, Japan, and Philippines that will likely result

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Speaker 2: in a more formal alliance in the South China Sea.

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Speaker 2: An alliance against China would be front page news. But

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Speaker 2: we've got Faiza coming and going, We've got Trump doing

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Speaker 2: this and that. We've got the abortion ruling in Arizona

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Speaker 2: that's taking a lot of attention here. There's almost no

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Speaker 2: time to get to it all. And I was heartened

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Speaker 2: to see the column today by my colleague Andreas Kluth,

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Speaker 2: reporting for Bloomberg Opinion from here in Washington, DC. Hail

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Speaker 2: the trilateral chiefs, Biden, Keshita Marcos. Indeed, this is important

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Speaker 2: and worth your attention as the president tries to put

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Speaker 2: together a network of alliances that some people are calling

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Speaker 2: a Pacific version of NATO. Andreas is with US now

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Speaker 2: on balance of power, and it's great to see you, sir.

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Speaker 2: You talk about the lattice work of alliances, the many

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Speaker 2: lateral partnerships. Is it possible to connect the dots on

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Speaker 2: all of them?

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Speaker 3: It's hard.

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Speaker 4: In fact, I believe my title made fun of that,

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Speaker 4: like mocked that because I think I said, hey, all

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Speaker 4: the manilateral chiefs, you know, But basically what you have

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Speaker 4: is by my count, three trilaterals and one quadrilateral, all

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Speaker 4: overlapping in the Indo Pacific, all led by the US.

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Speaker 4: And if forming what they call, you know, their metaphor

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Speaker 4: now is a lattice, what does the lattice replace? It

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Speaker 4: replaces what's emerged since World War Two in the Indo Pacific,

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Speaker 4: but not in the Atlantic, which is in the Indo Pacific,

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Speaker 4: you've had a hub and spoke system. So the US

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Speaker 4: has bilateral alliances with security guarantees with Japan, Australia and

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Speaker 4: New Zealand, Philippines, Thailand, but there was no thought some

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Speaker 4: of these countries were acting independently, or in the case

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Speaker 4: of South Korea and Japan, were even hated each other

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Speaker 4: and the US has been under Biden trying to bring

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Speaker 4: some order into that and make it, as I said,

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Speaker 4: a lattice. Whether whether that works for you or not,

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Speaker 4: we can debate. And of course there's one thought that

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Speaker 4: they have in their mind is the other side of

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Speaker 4: the world, which is NATO. Seventy fifth anniversary just passed

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Speaker 4: and the and Biden will host in July, will host

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Speaker 4: this year's NATO summit in Washington, which is this incredibly

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Speaker 4: successful alliance. All alliances are supposed to deter the lattice,

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Speaker 4: supposed to deter China. NATO is supposed to deter Russia

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Speaker 4: always has done. But there's a problem in NATO, which

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Speaker 4: is burden sharing. So a lot of the allies are

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Speaker 4: free riding on American defense spending. And Biden wants to

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Speaker 4: prevent that. And I think, if you want to, if

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Speaker 4: you want to be kind and generous, he wants to

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Speaker 4: build a new and improved NATO and NATO a two

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Speaker 4: point zero in the Indo Pacific for the what they

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Speaker 4: view as the larger challenge for the next seventh years,

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Speaker 4: which is likely going to be China.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's go a little deeper into that, because we

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Speaker 2: heard from the President yesterday as part of that trilateral meeting.

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Speaker 2: And I want to ask you, Andreas about enforcement. We

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Speaker 2: talked so much about Article five in Europe. Listen to

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Speaker 2: what he said about the Indo Pacific region when he

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Speaker 2: spoke yesterday, and we'll talk about this on the other side.

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Speaker 1: Here's the president.

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Speaker 5: The United States defense commitments to Japan and to the

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Speaker 5: Philippines are iron clad. They are iron clad, as I've

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Speaker 5: said before, any attack on Philippine aircraft, vessels or armed forces.

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Speaker 5: And so I'm trying to see when invoke our mutual

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Speaker 5: defense treaty.

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Speaker 2: So, Andreas Kluth, it sounds like there is an equivalent

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Speaker 2: to Article five in the Pacific, isn't that what he

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Speaker 2: just said?

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Speaker 4: Yes and no. The difference so this defense treaty with

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Speaker 4: the Philippines goes back to the fifties. I believe it's

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Speaker 4: old mutual defense guaranteed. That's what all the treaties I

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Speaker 4: mentioned earliers have. Article five of NATO different. It says

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Speaker 4: an attack against one is an attack against all. In theory,

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Speaker 4: it obliges all thirty two with Sweden now allies to

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Speaker 4: come to the defense of any of them. It's only

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Speaker 4: been in vocal well.

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Speaker 2: The Philippines in Japan would not come to our defense.

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Speaker 2: In other words, if we were attacked.

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Speaker 4: Well, well, they're not in NATO. I was saying, that

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Speaker 4: was Article five in NATO.

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Speaker 3: What he understood.

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Speaker 2: But I'm trying to discern the difference between these two exactly.

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Speaker 4: And so here the US would come to the defense

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Speaker 4: of the Philippines or of Australia, but Japan wouldn't have

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Speaker 4: to is not in the treaty. And that's the difference

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Speaker 4: with the lattice and the trilaterals and quarter laterals. Biden

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Speaker 4: wants in Japan a kashido in this very moving speech

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Speaker 4: to Congress. Maybe we should go into that because I

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Speaker 4: thought it was powerful essentially signals we're sharing this burden

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Speaker 4: with you. We would also help, even though Japan has

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Speaker 4: no formal treaty at present with the phil for example.

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Speaker 4: So you see, that's the difference a bilateral defense guarantee

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Speaker 4: versus a multilateral And that's where the minilateral and the

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Speaker 4: attempts come out that the US doesn't want all by

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Speaker 4: itself to defend the Philippines against China and then Japan

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Speaker 4: against you know, North South Korea against North Korea and

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Speaker 4: so forth. So it's multilateral versus bilateral, and the attempt

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Speaker 4: through the lattice, through the minilaterals to bro to to

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Speaker 4: have a collective defense in the in the Pacific.

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Speaker 2: So there's work to be done here then obviously, I'm

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Speaker 2: just trying to get to whatever the next step is, Andreas.

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Speaker 2: If Joe Biden can create, to your point, a sort

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Speaker 2: of NATO two point zero in that region is going

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Speaker 2: to involve connecting the dots in all of these partnerships,

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Speaker 2: and I wonder if Aucus is the starting point for that.

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Speaker 2: Knowing that Japan talked about its role as a second pillar,

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Speaker 2: why not pull all of these countries into the alliance

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Speaker 2: with the UK and Australia. Wouldn't that be the closest

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Speaker 2: thing to a formal partnership that we could start with.

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Speaker 4: Yes, And in fact that's sort of the here inside

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Speaker 4: the belt Way that's the most problem. The Australians have

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Speaker 4: some concerns, But very briefly, Aucus could expand to become

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Speaker 4: Jaucus or any number of other things. Aucus has two pillars,

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Speaker 4: two parts. One is simply to get nuclear powered but

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Speaker 4: conventionally armed American submarines to Australia. But the longer term

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Speaker 4: but more interesting part is two is Pillar two where

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Speaker 4: the three countries, which are also already three of the

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Speaker 4: five countries in the Five Eyes common spying you know,

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Speaker 4: spy intelligence network, so they trust each other, where they

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Speaker 4: would collaborate on producing underwater robot warfare, a quantum warfare,

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Speaker 4: artificial intelligence, and basically all the ways you would win

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Speaker 4: fight and win the next war, which are very costly.

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Speaker 4: And this goes to the burden sharing. They would from

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Speaker 4: the start conceive build, invest in these myths together and

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Speaker 4: based on that deep in their commitments to each other,

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Speaker 4: and they could pull in other that could be widened

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Speaker 4: to Japan and then possibly to others in the future.

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Speaker 4: I'm thinking South Korea.

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Speaker 2: For Shakkus and Alliance Andreas. Thank you so much. I

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Speaker 2: wish we had more time, but I will again point

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Speaker 2: everyone to the column. Hail the Trilateral Chiefs, and remember

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Speaker 2: this conversation next time we're talking about the South China Sea.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 6: I Am Kaylee lines alongside Joe Matthew in Washington, where

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Speaker 6: the House seems to have done it, Joe actually passing

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Speaker 6: a two year reauthorization of Faiza warrantless surveillance, a Warren

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Speaker 6: amendment that was brought by Andy Biggs did not pass.

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Speaker 6: It was tied hundred twelve two hundred twelve. So no

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Speaker 6: shortage of drama on the House floor. But of course

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Speaker 6: wrapping this up only eats into part of what the

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Speaker 6: House has on its to do list. Still in question

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Speaker 6: is supplemental funding for aid to US allies including Ukraine, Yes,

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Speaker 6: but also Israel, as Israel we understand is facing down

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Speaker 6: a threat that could be coming at it within the

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Speaker 6: next forty eight hours according to our reporting.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is really something. It's getting more complex as

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Speaker 2: we approach the weekend, Kaylee, and you reminded us yesterday

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Speaker 2: of the FBI Director Christopher Ray's warning of a potential

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Speaker 2: terror attack imminently like we saw in Russia. That plays

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Speaker 2: into the conversation around Piza, and now of course geopolitics

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Speaker 2: popping on this president as well. These are dangerous times

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Speaker 2: that we're living in here, and that's why we wanted

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Speaker 2: to have Ian Marlow join as Bloomberg News senior reporter

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Speaker 2: covering diplomacy. Ian, it's great to have you with us

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Speaker 2: again on balance of power. The next forty eight hours

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Speaker 2: are going to tell us a lot here. Bloomberg News

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Speaker 2: is at least anticipating the potential for a direct strike

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Speaker 2: on Israeli soil.

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Speaker 3: How likely is that?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, it seems to be what people are telling sources here.

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Speaker 7: And also I think what Israel seems to be bracing

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Speaker 7: for publicly as well as the US.

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Speaker 8: The US State.

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Speaker 7: Department has warned its own employees not to travel around

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Speaker 7: Israel with this. Iran's warning of retaliation sort of sitting

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Speaker 7: out there, and now we're seeing much more alarm that

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Speaker 7: this attack could be imminent. It's not clear exactly what

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Speaker 7: shape it will take. There's talk about Hesbalah militants, which

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Speaker 7: are obviously funded and trained by Iran on Israel's northern

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Speaker 7: border with Lebanon. There's talk of them, you know, raining

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Speaker 7: down missiles or sending drones.

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Speaker 8: There's even talk of.

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Speaker 7: A potential strike emerging from Iranian territory itself. You know,

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Speaker 7: it's not clear how much Israel's Iron Dome and other

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Speaker 7: you know, missile batteries will be able to take down.

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Speaker 7: So there is a lot of alarm growing concern. The

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Speaker 7: US is kind of repositioning forces in the region, seems

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Speaker 7: to be moving more assets into the region as well,

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Speaker 7: and I think everyone is just bracing for this right now.

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Speaker 7: And then, of course the big question is what comes next.

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Speaker 7: And Israel has said that they will hit back.

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Speaker 6: Well, especially Ian as the US has reiterated time and

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Speaker 6: time again that what they would most like to avoid

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Speaker 6: is a further escalation in the Middle East. But there

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Speaker 6: are different degrees of escalation. Surely, how escalatory will it

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Speaker 6: be if it is an Iranian proxy like HESBLA as

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Speaker 6: you mentioned, versus Iron itself conducting an attack like this,

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Speaker 6: What are the potential degrees of escalation here?

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Speaker 7: I mean, it's a good question, I think definitely. I mean,

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Speaker 7: has BLOT militants have already been in direct conflict with Israel.

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Speaker 7: I don't think Israel will draw any distinction between you know,

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Speaker 7: you know has bought militants necessarily in Iran per se,

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Speaker 7: they have already hit Iranian assets in Syria and elsewhere.

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Speaker 8: As this war has gone On. I think the big

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Speaker 8: thing will.

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Speaker 7: Be the degree to which this you know, this attack,

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Speaker 7: if it comes, is successful.

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Speaker 8: You know, what kind of damage it causes, what sort.

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Speaker 7: Of you know, missiles or other you know, mil attack,

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Speaker 7: drones or whatever it will be.

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Speaker 8: How much actually.

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Speaker 7: Gets through you know, Israeli defenses, and you know, the

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Speaker 7: degree to which any damage is caused will probably shape

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Speaker 7: the Israeli reaction. And I think the big open question is,

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Speaker 7: you know, if it comes from Iran proper and there

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Speaker 7: is you know, a significant degree of damage or casualties,

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Speaker 7: you know, Israel would be forced, I think in terms

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Speaker 7: of domestic pressure and in terms of its.

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Speaker 8: Own war aims to respond.

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Speaker 7: And that was, as you say, one of the US

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Speaker 7: goals since this conflict began has been to avoid that

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Speaker 7: sort of escalation, and we've seen their areas tip for

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Speaker 7: tat escalations, you know, throughout the region, in Iraq and Syria,

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Speaker 7: you know, with Lebanon, as this war has dragged on,

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Speaker 7: and none of them have actually you know, led to

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Speaker 7: that full blown you know, regional conflict in the US

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Speaker 7: has been trying to avoid.

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Speaker 8: And I think the.

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Speaker 7: Real worry here is that this sort of response from

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Speaker 7: Iran and An Israeli counter response could then engender that

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Speaker 7: type of you know, regional conflagration that everyone's been trying

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Speaker 7: to avoid.

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Speaker 2: Well, I suspect we'll be hearing from Israel's ambassador to

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Speaker 2: the United Nations either way. I've only got a minute

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Speaker 2: left here, Ian, but your piece today on the ambassador

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Speaker 2: is really worth talking about here and how strident he

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Speaker 2: has been, the tough words that he's been using to

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Speaker 2: clap back on calls for a ceasefire.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, thank you for highlighting this piece.

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Speaker 7: We had a couple of chances to talk to Gil Adderdan,

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Speaker 7: the Israeli Ambassador of the UN, and he really has

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Speaker 7: personified the Israeli response to critics of the war, which

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Speaker 7: is a sort of uncompromising approach putting down Israel's critics.

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Speaker 7: You know, Israel has a very interesting history with the

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Speaker 7: with the UN it created. You know, I helped create Israel.

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Speaker 7: And the ambassador told us in interviews that you know

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Speaker 7: that is the UN that exists now where countries vote

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Speaker 7: against Israel constantly, way more than they do against say.

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Speaker 8: Russia or Iran or Mianmar. It's not the same United Nations.

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Speaker 7: You know, he talks about it being utterly politicized, you know,

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Speaker 7: just basically being isolated. And I think his uncompromising approach

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Speaker 7: at the UN, people are saying is sort of alienating

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Speaker 7: potential moderate countries in the middle who could be supporting Israel,

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Speaker 7: but who might you know, who are on the fence

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Speaker 7: that that sort of behavior and those sorts of words

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Speaker 7: and some of that. You know, he's accused, you know,

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Speaker 7: the United Nations of being anti Semitic. He's called for

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Speaker 7: the chief you know, Antonio and Guitaras to step down,

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Speaker 7: to resign over comments he made, and is constantly you know,

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Speaker 7: saying Hitler would be singing the praises of.

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Speaker 3: The UN these days.

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Speaker 7: That kind of language, you know, people are saying is

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Speaker 7: just kind of alienating potential Israeli supporters, and it's being

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Speaker 7: a stance that looks, you know, to some observers and critics,

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Speaker 7: particularly a little bit awkward or risky as this conflict

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Speaker 7: has gotten much much worse, as the depth towl has climbed,

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Speaker 7: as we've seen the awful humanitarian situation there. So it's

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Speaker 7: a very I just thought he was a very interesting

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Speaker 7: person to look at as his conflict is dragged on.

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Speaker 7: As a way to look at Israel's own view.

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Speaker 8: Of the conflict.

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Speaker 6: Absolutely. Ian Marlow, thank you so much and it is

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Speaker 6: a great plea piece. You could check it out on

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Speaker 6: the terminal and online. Israel's and battled envoy takes on

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Speaker 6: the UN as the Gaza crisis worsens, and of course, Joe,

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Speaker 6: we have heard a lot from President Biden about the

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Speaker 6: Gaza crisis worsening as well. He has had words for

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Speaker 6: Netanyahu himself, as he has continually reminded us. This is

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Speaker 6: what the President had to say most recently about the

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Speaker 6: conversation that he has had with the Israeli Minister around

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Speaker 6: humanitarian aid.

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Speaker 5: Here is I have been very blunt and straightforward with

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Speaker 5: the Prime Minister as well as his work cabinet as

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Speaker 5: well as the cabinet. And the fact of the matter

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Speaker 5: is that bb and I had a long discussion. He

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Speaker 5: agreed to do several things that related to number one,

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Speaker 5: getting more aid both food and medicine into Gaza and

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Speaker 5: reducing significantly the attempts the civilian casualties in any action

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Speaker 5: taken in the region.

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Speaker 6: We want to have more now on what is happening

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Speaker 6: in the region region with Kelly Grigo, she a senior

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Speaker 6: Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at the

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Speaker 6: Stimson Center. So Kelly, great to have you with us. Obviously,

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Speaker 6: we have heard in recent weeks the sharpening of US

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Speaker 6: language around Israel and its policy in Gaza, suggestion that

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Speaker 6: US policy may have to change if they don't see

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Speaker 6: what they want from the Israelis in terms of humanitarian

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Speaker 6: aid as we just heard the President talk about. But

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Speaker 6: can the US really do that knowing that potentially is

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Speaker 6: reel embracing for an attack from Iran or its proxies

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Speaker 6: within the next forty eight hours in Israeli territory? Can

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Speaker 6: the US do both here or do they really only

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Speaker 6: have one option and that is to defend Israel if

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Speaker 6: Iran makes this move.

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Speaker 9: Yes, well, thank you for having me, and I think

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Speaker 9: you just captured the essential challenge for US policy right now.

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Speaker 9: Is that on the one hand, where we have increasingly

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Speaker 9: frustrated with the Israelis and putting more pressure on them

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Speaker 9: to move towards Subhio Ceaspire arrangement, but this as potential

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Speaker 9: escalation with Iran is limiting our room for maneuver with that.

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Speaker 9: As you said, you can't.

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Speaker 3: Really have it both ways.

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Speaker 9: If we're going to embrace defending Israel, standing by Israel

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Speaker 9: if there is an attack, it will limit our ability

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Speaker 9: to put pressure on Israel to also accept a ceasepire.

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Speaker 2: Kelly, can we just slow down a minute here. It's

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Speaker 2: great to have you back. We wanted to talk to

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Speaker 2: you specifically today about all of this. We're talking about

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Speaker 2: the potential for direct conflict between Iran and Israel. We

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Speaker 2: have long heard that that's World War three.

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Speaker 1: What do you think?

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Speaker 9: You know, I have to say, I have a you know,

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Speaker 9: my stomach is hurts right now thinking about this.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's hard to say.

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Speaker 9: I can't believe I'm going to say this, but after

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Speaker 9: twenty years of the US military being actively involved in

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Speaker 9: the Middle East and during my lifetime, I'm the most

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Speaker 9: anxious today about what is going to happen this weekend

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Speaker 9: and in the coming week in terms of this escalation,

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Speaker 9: because I think, as you said, it is, if Iran

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Speaker 9: does a lact for the most explatory option, which is

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Speaker 9: a direct strike on Israel from Iranian soil, there is

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Speaker 9: a really increased likelihood that this is going to very

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Speaker 9: quickly become a regional war.

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Speaker 6: Would the US get involved in a regional war like that, Kelly,

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Speaker 6: would this potentially mean American troops back on the ground.

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Speaker 9: Well, I think there are two questions around that that

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Speaker 9: would need to be first to really know. Which is

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Speaker 9: the first one would be how the Iranians conduct the strike.

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Speaker 9: So they have publicly said that they hold us responsible

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Speaker 9: for the strikes that Israel conducted into Bathket, even though

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Speaker 9: we've said that we were not involved and did not

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Speaker 9: know about them. So I think there is one question

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Speaker 9: is would the Iranians actually strike US targets at the

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Speaker 9: same time that they strike Israel itself. That would be

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Speaker 9: one question. If that happens, certainly it would draw us in.

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Speaker 9: And then I think the second one would be what

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Speaker 9: the attack on Israel looks like, how extensive it is,

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Speaker 9: what kind of damage it does in destruction, and if

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Speaker 9: it is so large and so escalatory, the United States

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Speaker 9: may feel that it has no other choice but to

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Speaker 9: assist Israel in providing for its defense, and that could

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Speaker 9: potentially draw us in.

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Speaker 2: Kelly, the commander of US Central Command, General Eric Krilla,

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Speaker 2: is in Israel right now. The US sent him there.

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Speaker 2: The Pentagon dispatched him to be able to advise in

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Speaker 2: person and in real time. What is he telling them.

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Speaker 9: Yes, I mean, I think it's one thing that's worth

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Speaker 9: noting is that he has been regularly visiting Israel during

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Speaker 9: this war, so it's not entirely unusual. I would think

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Speaker 9: that he's actually talking a lot about what they're planning

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Speaker 9: to do if there's a direct strike on Israel, what

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Speaker 9: kind of response they they're considering. I think there would

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Speaker 9: have to be a lot of concern that if there

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Speaker 9: is some kind of strike, even if it's very limited

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Speaker 9: against Israel, that the Israelis will respond in a massive

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Speaker 9: way of potentially directly strike I Ran, and at that

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Speaker 9: point it's going to be really hard to get these

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Speaker 9: parties to stand down.

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Speaker 6: Kelly, can you just, especially given your areas of expertise,

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Speaker 6: tell us how equipped Israel is not only potentially to

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Speaker 6: conduct a retaliatory retaliatory strike, if you will, but also

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Speaker 6: defense wise to withstand a potential attack like this, knowing

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Speaker 6: that we don't actually know what form, if at all,

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Speaker 6: this will happen in how strong are the is the

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Speaker 6: Iron Dome or Israeli defense forces to withstand it from

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Speaker 6: wherever it comes from.

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Speaker 9: Yes, I mean the Israeli to have excellent air and

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Speaker 9: missile defense systems. I mean, you know that should obviously

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Speaker 9: be acknowledged. I think the issue is that any kind

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Speaker 9: of air and missile defense system can eventually be swamped

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Speaker 9: saturated by sheer numbers of incoming targets. So if the

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Speaker 9: Iranians war to elect to strike Israel, if they make

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Speaker 9: these bollies with missiles and drones large enough, they have

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Speaker 9: the potential to leap through to be able to overwhelm

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Speaker 9: these systems.

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Speaker 2: Kelly, it's great to have you back, Kelly Griico as

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Speaker 2: senior Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at

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Speaker 2: the Stimson Center.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast cats

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Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emo CarPlay and

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Speaker 1: then roun Oo with the Bloomberg Business Listen on demand

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 6: We have learned many times, Joe, if at first you

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Speaker 6: don't succeed, perhaps you try, try, try, try again. Whether

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Speaker 6: it's the FISA vote that didn't succeed until the fourth time,

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Speaker 6: or whether it's attempting to forgive student loans, you tried

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Speaker 6: to do it in a broad based fashion. If you're

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Speaker 6: President Biden, the Supreme Court strikes it down, and instead

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Speaker 6: you try again in smaller increments, and once again we're

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Speaker 6: getting more increments today another seven point four billion dollar

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Speaker 6: in billion dollars in federal student debt going to be relieved.

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Speaker 2: I like the way you did that. I feel like

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Speaker 2: we all have second chances. Maybe that's the case for

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden. He's doing the same thing for the border,

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Speaker 2: by the way, that might be his third swing at

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Speaker 2: that one. Try try again with our panel. Rick Davis

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Speaker 2: is with us, of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor, longtime Republican strategists,

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Speaker 2: joined by Democratic strategist Pat Dennis. He's the president of

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Speaker 2: American Bridge twenty first Century.

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Speaker 1: Pat.

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Speaker 2: This matter of forgiving student debt has been a sticky

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Speaker 2: one for Joe Biden, and a lot of young people

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Speaker 2: feel like he did simply did not make good on

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Speaker 2: a promise, regardless of his try try again and the

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Speaker 2: fact that the court, Supreme Court is the one that

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Speaker 2: stopped it. How important will this be as a tool

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Speaker 2: for him in the campaign.

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Speaker 10: It's important, I mean, it's important that voters see you

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Speaker 10: not giving up on delivering on your campaign promises, delivering

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Speaker 10: for voters, you know, You're gonna see a ton of

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Speaker 10: complaining from Republicans who are gonna sue or.

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Speaker 3: Try to stop this.

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Speaker 10: They're gonna try to, you know, prevent this debt from

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Speaker 10: being forgiven life changing amounts of debt in some cases.

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Speaker 10: And you know, if you show me a powerful Republican

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Speaker 10: who opposes this measure, I'll show you somebody who got

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Speaker 10: a PPP loan forgiven, either them themselves or you know,

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Speaker 10: their biggest owners. So it seems to me like we're

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Speaker 10: not so much arguing about like whether debt should be forgiven,

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Speaker 10: It should be about who's.

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Speaker 6: Well rick the words patch to use there, the idea

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Speaker 6: that you need to be seen not giving up on something,

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Speaker 6: continuing to try. Is that what this is really about,

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Speaker 6: not so much the outcome as the effort. If you're

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Speaker 6: a presidential candidate, or do you need outcomes for when

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Speaker 6: voters go to the polls in November and think, Okay,

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Speaker 6: what has he actually done for me?

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00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:16,880
Speaker 3: Yeah?

440
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 11: I think it's a good question. I think politically, you

441
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 11: want outcomes. You want that money hitting the street before

442
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,880
Speaker 11: election day. None of these funds will actually make their

443
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 11: way into I say funds reliefs will make its way

444
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 11: into the balance sheet of most of these folks before

445
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 11: election day, So it's you have to consider it mostly rhetoric.

446
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 11: We know that the courts, not Republicans, have had a

447
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 11: lot of problems with Mission creep by this administration around

448
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 11: these kinds of debt relief efforts on the part of

449
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 11: the administration. So that's going to play out in the

450
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,159
Speaker 11: courts regardless of what the politics of the situation is.

451
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 11: And look, I mean, it's kind of a naked grab

452
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 11: for youth votes, you know. And it's not the eighteen

453
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 11: to twenty five year olds. They they're the ones who

454
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 11: are generating the debt right now. It's mostly the thirty

455
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 11: to fifty five year olds who still have been carrying

456
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 11: around a lot of this debt for a long time.

457
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 11: And I don't think anybody disagrees that student debt burdens

458
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 11: are not good for the economy, but it's an incredibly

459
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 11: unfair approach, which is those people who carried the most debt,

460
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 11: not the ones who paid off their loans, not the

461
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 11: ones who couldn't get a loan and didn't go to

462
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 11: college and went to maybe community college or didn't go

463
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 11: to you know, you know, anything other than a high

464
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 11: school education. What's in it for them? They're taxpayers too,

465
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 11: they're funding this, And so I think you know, Pats right,

466
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 11: it's the issue isn't whether you're doing it, it's who's

467
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 11: it go to. And right now it's going to a

468
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 11: group of people who you know, it's just not in

469
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 11: the doesn't pass the fairness quotion by American standards.

470
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting, Pat, we talk about other people paying

471
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 2: for stuff here because there's a story today by Axios

472
00:25:56,320 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 2: that Joe Biden actually used campaign money was DNS see

473
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 2: cash one and a half million dollars to pay for

474
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 2: lawyers to pay for legal bills and the Special Counsel's

475
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:10,360
Speaker 2: probe into his handling of classified documents, remembering he spent

476
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 2: a lot of time criticizing Donald Trump for using campaign

477
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 2: money to pay for his attorney's fees. And I know

478
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,719
Speaker 2: we're talking about one and a half million versus in

479
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 2: excess of fifty million dollars, but it's these little things.

480
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 2: It's partly the reason why people aren't talking about Donald

481
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 2: Trump's classified documents case because Joe Biden got one of

482
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 2: his own, realizing there may not be a moral equivalency here.

483
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,439
Speaker 2: How tough is this headline when you see something like

484
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:42,640
Speaker 2: this in leaving Joe Biden incapable or maybe not credible

485
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,439
Speaker 2: in some of his attacks against Donald Trump.

486
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's classic what about ism?

487
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 10: Right, You do one one thousandth of something that totally

488
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 10: makes sense but kind of rhymes in some way with

489
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 10: something egregious that Trump did, and all of a sudden,

490
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,639
Speaker 10: you know, people are jumping down your throat about it.

491
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 10: This is the kind of thing where there's absolutely no

492
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 10: equivalents between what the DNC did. Hear some like, you know,

493
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 10: routine legal bills. You know, I run a super pack.

494
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 10: I wish I could get legal bills down to a

495
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 10: million and a half sometimes.

496
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 3: But you know, and what Trump.

497
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 10: Has done, which is frequently deceive his donors, you know,

498
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 10: folks who thought they were giving to win elections or

499
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 10: folks who thought they were you know, giving based on

500
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 10: big live rhetoric, and he just took that money and

501
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 10: put it in his own pocket for his own personal

502
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 10: legal bills.

503
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 3: There's no equivalence here.

504
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 6: Well, pat it all speaks to this idea that there

505
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 6: is legal trouble surrounding the former president as he is

506
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 6: campaigning against Biden in the general election, and really it's

507
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 6: going to come to the forefront of attention on Monday

508
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,199
Speaker 6: when his trial, the first ever criminal trial of a

509
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,239
Speaker 6: former president, begins in New York. It could last six

510
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 6: to eight weeks, but realistically we're talking before the convention here.

511
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 6: This could be wrapped up and he could There is

512
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 6: a chance he ends up a convicted felon. What would

513
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 6: change for the Biden campaign at that point if he's

514
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 6: or if he's not.

515
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,679
Speaker 10: Yeah, and it's important people don't forget, like Michael Cohen

516
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 10: went to jail over this exact thing, not something similar,

517
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 10: this exact issue.

518
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 3: It's really serious for him.

519
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 10: And look, Republicans will do everything they can to cover

520
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 10: up for him, to act like this is no big deal,

521
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:18,880
Speaker 10: to act like this is some kind of parison which hunt.

522
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 3: But this is the legal system.

523
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 10: This is a legal system that sent Michael Cohen to

524
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,640
Speaker 10: jail when he was Trump's enemy at the time.

525
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 3: And it's you know, it's a big deal.

526
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 10: I'm not going to talk about the who's up who's

527
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 10: down of a major candidate being found guilty of felonies.

528
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 10: I think we can all agree that that's not good.

529
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 10: But ultimately, like Republicans are going to have to decide

530
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 10: exactly how far down this doom loop they're going to

531
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 10: follow him.

532
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 2: Well, that's right, Rick, I'd love to hear you weigh

533
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 2: in on this. Joe Biden having the DNC pay for

534
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 2: his attorneys, does that not sound like Donald Trump? You

535
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 2: can talk about equivalency, but perceptions reality.

536
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 11: Well, I mean, this is all self inflicted pain. I mean,

537
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 11: the campaign's finance chairman goes out and says, we don't

538
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 11: spend money on legal bills in the DNC, and their

539
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 11: filings shows clearly that they spent money over a million

540
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 11: bucks for Bob Bauer, who was representing the president in

541
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 11: his you know, documents case. You know, so that's exactly

542
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 11: what they did. And if they just kept their mouth

543
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 11: shut and didn't make a big deal of it, it wouldn't

544
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 11: be such a big deal. But don't you know, don't

545
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 11: cast stones into that glasshouse if yours is still pretty

546
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 11: thin itself. Look, I mean, I think the issue of

547
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 11: those documents cases, with the with the sensitive and confidential

548
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 11: information that Trump had and Biden had were handled differently

549
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 11: by each individual, and I think, you know, the President

550
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 11: handled his more responsibly. But then don't go lying about

551
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 11: you know, whether or not you spent DNC money on it,

552
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 11: because you did, and and and just come clean. That's

553
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 11: what American voters want. They want someone who they don't

554
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 11: really care whether you use the money at the DNC

555
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 11: for this, but they care about it is you weren't

556
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 11: really straight with him about it. And I think that

557
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 11: could be a breakaway moment for this campaign, you know, Biden,

558
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 11: you know, because there's no chance that Donald Trump's ever

559
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 11: going to be straight with anything or apologize, and Biden

560
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 11: does have the opportunity to be running a campaign that

561
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 11: actually is more transparent and honest with the press and

562
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 11: with the voters.

563
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 6: So Rick, essentially, what you're saying is while sometimes the

564
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 6: former president can say things that are outright untruthful and

565
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 6: either people believe him or decide that it's just Trump

566
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 6: being Trump, that Biden is not held to that same standard,

567
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 6: or rather Trump is not being held to the same

568
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 6: standard Biden is.

569
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 11: Yeah, I just don't think there's an expectation that you're

570
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 11: ever going to get a truthful statement out of Trump,

571
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 11: So he kind of gets a pass right go lie

572
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 11: all day long and the press doesn't even report it,

573
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 11: you know, but Biden holds himself out as being the

574
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 11: truth teller, right, and that's a very good place to

575
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 11: be in this election. I think you want to own

576
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 11: that ground. You want to be the fact based campaign,

577
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 11: So you should kind to be a little more careful

578
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 11: with how you then represent yourself when things like this happen.

579
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 11: It would have been absolutely fine for the Biden campaign

580
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 11: to say, yeah, we probably should have told the press

581
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 11: that you know, we were using you know, over a

582
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 11: million bucks to pay for our bills. I don't think

583
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 11: anybody would have cared at that stage, and it would

584
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 11: have drawn a contrast to, you know, the kind of

585
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 11: transparency that the Trump campaign's given their donors versus those

586
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 11: that are being given by the DNC. I guarantee you

587
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 11: the DNC donors were happy to do that. It wasn't

588
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 11: an egregious amount, but you know, they never gave them

589
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 11: a chance because they really didn't, you know, come.

590
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 6: Straight with them, all right. Rick Davis Republican strategist, and

591
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 6: Pat Dennis are Democratic strategist. Joining us today from American Bridge.

592
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

593
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and

594
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: then Roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can

595
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

596
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 1: York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

597
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 6: I will be heading to New York on Monday for

598
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 6: the beginning of a historic proceeding the first criminal trial

599
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 6: if a former US president Joe Donald Trump, unless we

600
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 6: see a delay he's asking for, Yeah, right, We'll go

601
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 6: on trial in New York in the hush money case

602
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 6: involving Stormy Daniels.

603
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 1: Yeah.

604
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:19,959
Speaker 2: We feel like we've done this already. Obviously, people have

605
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 2: gone through this case. They've heard about the hush money payments.

606
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 2: They remember Michael Cohen, Stormy Daniels, Lanny Davis on TV

607
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 2: every night. But this is the actual trial. And when

608
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 2: you're up there on Monday, they're going to start assembling

609
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 2: a jury, and based on this questionnaire, Kaylee, jury's selection

610
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 2: in itself could be wild.

611
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 6: Yeah, they need to find a dozen jurors and they

612
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 6: are going to be essentially judging someone who yes, is

613
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 6: their peer, but also as a former president of the

614
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 6: United States, current presidential candidate, someone with incredible name recognition.

615
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 6: So they're going to be asked things like do they

616
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 6: have political, moral intellectual or religious beliefs or opinions that

617
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 6: may slant their approach to this case. It's going to

618
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 6: be tough work to actually I do these dozen individuals,

619
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 6: and you need the alternates as well. And that is

620
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 6: where we begin with Nick Ackerman, former Watergate prosecutor who

621
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 6: is joining us now. Nick, is always great to have

622
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 6: you on the show. We will get to jury selection

623
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 6: in a moment, But first, do you see any possible

624
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 6: chance that this is delayed and this doesn't in fact

625
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 6: start on Monday the fifteenth.

626
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 12: Boy, I don't see it. I know Trump is probably

627
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 12: trying every trick in the book, but I just don't

628
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,479
Speaker 12: see there being a delay. He tried three times this

629
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 12: week and was denied by the appeals court all three.

630
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: Times that said will start Monday. And I was just

631
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,239
Speaker 2: referencing the questionnaire for jurors, Nick, what is this going

632
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 2: to be like? They're going to be asking people if

633
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 2: they have truth, social accounts, among other things. Everybody in

634
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 2: New York knows about this story. Is it possible to

635
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 2: find an assemble a fair jury?

636
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: Oh?

637
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 12: Definitely. You will be surprised how many people in New

638
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 12: York have not paid attention to this story or paid

639
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 12: attention to the fact that this case it never ceases

640
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 12: to amaze me. I've had other jury selections and high

641
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 12: profile cases where I thought for sure it would be difficult,

642
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 12: but it never is. And it wasn't difficult to find

643
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 12: two juries in the eg and Carrol case, and that

644
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 12: didn't take too wrong. The real key here is whether

645
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:22,799
Speaker 12: or not the individuals who are going to be on

646
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 12: that jury can be fair and impartial, even if they

647
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 12: know who the defendant is and they have some rough

648
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:31,280
Speaker 12: idea about the case.

649
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 6: Well, so let's get into the details of the case then, Nick,

650
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 6: because obviously what we're talking about here is thirty four

651
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 6: counts of falsifying business records, and New York typically this

652
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 6: would be a misdemeanor. The reason why this is a

653
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 6: felony in this case is because Alvin Bragg, the district attorney,

654
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:51,320
Speaker 6: is arguing that this was used in violation of election

655
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 6: law because this was done during the twenty sixteen election allegedly.

656
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 6: How hard is this case going to be to prosecute.

657
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,359
Speaker 12: Sure, it's not going to be election law. It's not

658
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 12: just federal, it's not just it's also state election law,

659
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:09,439
Speaker 12: and it's also tax violations. So what Alvin Bragg has

660
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:12,440
Speaker 12: to prove is that there was an intent to commit

661
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 12: those crimes. And it's not that unusual. I mean, this

662
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,399
Speaker 12: is a pretty run of the mill charge that's made

663
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:22,439
Speaker 12: on the state level, and the fact that it's made

664
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 12: into a felony is not that unusual either.

665
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 6: So you think this case is easier for the prosecution

666
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 6: than the defense.

667
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 1: Well much easier.

668
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 12: I mean, they've got two cooperating witnesses. It's not just

669
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:41,839
Speaker 12: Michael Cohen, his former lawyer, it's also David Pecker, who

670
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 12: was the owner of the National Inquirer, who together met

671
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,919
Speaker 12: with Donald Trump to come up with this catching kill

672
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 12: scheme whereby they would try and look for stories that

673
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 12: were derogatory of Donald Trump and make payoffs like they

674
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,959
Speaker 12: did with Stormy Daniels and Kieren McDougall, to keep those

675
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 12: stories from ever seeing the light of day before the

676
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 12: presidential election in twenty sixteen.

677
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 3: I know this trial is supposed to last six weeks.

678
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:11,280
Speaker 2: That's the estimation.

679
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 1: Make.

680
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 2: If jury selection becomes painful, maybe it won't in your view,

681
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 2: as they talk about everything from QAnon to Antifa. But

682
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 2: if that became a more protracted process, does the trial

683
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 2: creep into two months. What's your thought now on duration.

684
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 12: Well, it's very hard to tell. I really don't think

685
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 12: jury selection is going to be that long. You talk

686
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 12: about Antifa and QAnon. The fact of the matter is

687
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 12: jurors are going to have to express certain knowledge about

688
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 12: these areas. It all goes to whether they can be

689
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 12: fair and impartial. Both the defense and the government have

690
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 12: the opportunity to raise with the judge disqualifications of jurors

691
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 12: for cause. But on top of that, they each have

692
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 12: what are known as peremptory challenges, means that they can

693
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:07,399
Speaker 12: essentially dismiss a certain number of jurors. Each side has

694
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,880
Speaker 12: those because they just don't feel comfortable with them for

695
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 12: whatever reason, as long as it's not based on a

696
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 12: racial or ethnic reason.

697
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 6: Nick, Something else I want to bring up is the

698
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 6: gag order that the judge has put into place for

699
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 6: this trial. It has actually been expanded to include the

700
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 6: judge himself and his family, but also other officials of

701
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 6: the court and other potential likely witnesses like Stormy Daniels

702
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,800
Speaker 6: or Michael Cohen, who we've talked about and on True

703
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 6: Social on Wednesday, Trump said that those two are two

704
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 6: sleeves bags who have with their lives and misrepresentations cost

705
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 6: our country dearly. Where is the line of what violates

706
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 6: this gag order?

707
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 12: No doubt, in my mind, that violates the gag order.

708
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 12: This is a case that absolutely needs a gag order.

709
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 12: It's like an organized crime case to the extent that

710
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 12: people's lives witnesses in particular family of the court, are

711
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 12: really put in jeopardy. It's not so much by Donald

712
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 12: Trump himself, but what he says to some of his

713
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 12: supporters who are clearly a bit unhinged. We saw that

714
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 12: happen in North Carolina where an individual showed up with

715
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,799
Speaker 12: a loaded gun at an FBI office. Ultimately he was

716
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 12: killed in the process. We saw this happen in Utah.

717
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 12: There is a real present danger here that what Trump

718
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 12: says is going to have a real life impact on

719
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 12: the safety of witnesses, jurors, and court personnel. So I

720
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:44,800
Speaker 12: think the judge is going to handle this somehow. We'll see.

721
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 3: I think the real.

722
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 12: Problem is that most all of these judges are afraid

723
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 12: to put Trump in jail, which they would do with

724
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 12: any other defendant who violated this kind of a gag order.

725
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 12: And they're afraid to do that until such time as

726
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:04,800
Speaker 12: a jury of twelve people a convictim of a crime. Now,

727
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 12: he's got other possibilities here in terms of how he

728
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 12: could punish him, either through fines or through other parts

729
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 12: of the trial, which you know, he could wind up

730
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 12: giving a charge on this issue that would not be

731
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 12: too helpful to Donald Trump. What's so unusual here is,

732
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 12: in all my years of experience, I've never seen a

733
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 12: defendant go this far attacking people involved in the case,

734
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 12: particularly the judge. I mean, that's the last person you'd

735
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,879
Speaker 12: ever want to attack, because at the end of the day,

736
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 12: that judge is going to have total discretion as to

737
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:42,359
Speaker 12: whether the defendant goes to jail, gets probation, whatever that

738
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 12: sentence is. You don't want If it's my client, I

739
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 12: would not want him doing anything that in any way

740
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 12: undermine the judge's ability to look at him in a

741
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 12: complete void of any kind of threats like Donald Trump

742
00:39:59,640 --> 00:39:59,959
Speaker 12: is making.

743
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 2: Nick Ackerman is always great to have you back. We'll

744
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 2: be thinking about this talk when the trial starts on Monday.

745
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 2: Of course, former assistant US Attorney and former special Watergate

746
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:17,400
Speaker 2: prosecutor with US. Thanks for listening to the Balance of

747
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 2: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

748
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and

749
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

750
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:29,840
Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com