WEBVTT - Rattner: the Fed is acting by default

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg surveillance and the markets in particular, there's

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<v Speaker 1>gone a belief that there's no way Trump could become president.

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<v Speaker 1>I continue to argue if there is a plausible tath,

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<v Speaker 1>this divergent monetary policy world that we live in is

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<v Speaker 1>not necessarily supportive of the US equity markets. This is

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<v Speaker 1>Quewei three on its way to Kuwei fourteen. Whether we

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<v Speaker 1>like it or not, that's the reality. And there's traders.

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<v Speaker 1>That's how we have to deal Bloomberg surveillance. Your link

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<v Speaker 1>to the world of economics, finance and investment on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>Good running everyone, Michael McKay and Tom Kane worldwide. This

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<v Speaker 1>morning brought you by Cone Resident Accounting, tax advisory. Regulatory

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<v Speaker 1>changes can impact your business. See how the experts at

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<v Speaker 1>Cone Resident can help you navigate these complexities. Find out

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<v Speaker 1>more at Cone residuc dot com, Bank of England out

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<v Speaker 1>in our Central Bank, Derby with Indonesia, Norway earlier today

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<v Speaker 1>Carolina in New York with US. What do you see?

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<v Speaker 1>And it's like the Swiss we're holding study we have

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<v Speaker 1>for already seven years. We're at this record low nor

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<v Speaker 1>point five per cent is where we keep the key

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<v Speaker 1>rate tom nine to zero. Still not one dissenter again

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<v Speaker 1>at the b o E not wanting to see rate

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<v Speaker 1>hikes anytime soon. We have asset purchases planning still to

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<v Speaker 1>hold billion pounds, but overall they're saying increased uncertain He's

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<v Speaker 1>surrounding the Brexit vote. This is what is putting off

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<v Speaker 1>any sort of interest rate hike. The pound remaining higher

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<v Speaker 1>against the dollar, up seven tenths of percent, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course boring costs still coming down on those on the

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<v Speaker 1>debt market was saying yields down about nine basis. That

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<v Speaker 1>was a real conundrum for Mark Kearney with Brexit coming up.

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<v Speaker 1>He doesn't want to contribute to the debate at all

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<v Speaker 1>and he was almost forced to, wasn't. He had to

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<v Speaker 1>come up in front of the Treasury Select Committee just

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<v Speaker 1>last week and we have to state what he felt

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<v Speaker 1>about a Brexit. He of course was outlining that the

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<v Speaker 1>Bank of England didn't want to make up a call

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<v Speaker 1>pro or against, but did say that there were going

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<v Speaker 1>to be concerns. True with a lifter. You've got the

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<v Speaker 1>chart up there, we'll put a Bloomberg radio plus we're

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes of percent. We're at one dollar to ever go

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<v Speaker 1>out for a beverage of your choice in London. But

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<v Speaker 1>when you do, do people talk about Brexit? Or is

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<v Speaker 1>it just the province of newspapers in Bloomberg when I

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<v Speaker 1>have a tiple of my fancy, Yes, it is being

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<v Speaker 1>talked about. It's all consuming tom at the moment. Everyone

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<v Speaker 1>is debating really whether it is good the small business

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<v Speaker 1>side of the equation. They are feeling, of course, if

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<v Speaker 1>you're not an exporter, they do seem to want to

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<v Speaker 1>potentially be pulling out of the EU. Large corporations are

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<v Speaker 1>standing firm that they really do feel that we need

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<v Speaker 1>to remain part of the European Union overall. And I

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much sterling extendions gains today and Yann,

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<v Speaker 1>we're watching carefully with a huge move one ten sixty eight.

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<v Speaker 1>If someone has synthesized all that we see, or Stephen Ratner,

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<v Speaker 1>he is a most interesting person with some some legitimate work,

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<v Speaker 1>not only in financial investment but in journalism is well.

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<v Speaker 1>We should I think point out as a disclaimer that

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<v Speaker 1>at times he um manages money and gives investment counsel

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<v Speaker 1>of the principal owner of Bloomberg Radio on Michael Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 1>Um Steve Rattner, The cacophony of central bank announcements in

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<v Speaker 1>the last number of weeks has become bewildering. In it

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<v Speaker 1>all centers unreduced growth forecast. That seems to be the

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<v Speaker 1>common feature. The good news is that the central banks

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<v Speaker 1>have caught up to reality, and for a while they

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<v Speaker 1>seem to be denying reality, which is that we are

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<v Speaker 1>in a slower growth environment. The markets knew it, the

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<v Speaker 1>economists knew it. I think individuals probably felt it in

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<v Speaker 1>their bones, but the central banks and the Fed anyway,

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<v Speaker 1>was in some kind of state of denial and thinking

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<v Speaker 1>it was still going to have four interest rate hikes

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<v Speaker 1>this year, or thinking at least that that was a

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<v Speaker 1>good idea. And so yesterday's announcement and the one today

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<v Speaker 1>are welcome because we we are in that kind of

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<v Speaker 1>an environment. And I think the far better of the

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<v Speaker 1>argument is for the central banks to stay their course

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<v Speaker 1>on providing monetary support in this very weak time. Does

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<v Speaker 1>it build, does it help growth, or is it just

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<v Speaker 1>putting a floor under it? I'm not sure I know

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<v Speaker 1>the difference in the sense is all. What I do

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<v Speaker 1>know is that had they gone ahead with their interest

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<v Speaker 1>rate increases, it Look, you can make the argument a

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<v Speaker 1>quarter point here at quarter point there, it doesn't really matter.

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<v Speaker 1>But if in general they were going down the tightening path,

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<v Speaker 1>then that would, if you believe anything about economic theory,

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<v Speaker 1>make growth lower than whatever otherwise would have been. Is

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<v Speaker 1>it huge? Is it is it immediate? Is it visible?

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<v Speaker 1>Probably not all those questions, but it would have been

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<v Speaker 1>move in the wrong direction. How do you link this

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<v Speaker 1>into investment? If we assume we've migrated from January two

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<v Speaker 1>thousand nine double digit enthusiasm off the bottom moments to

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<v Speaker 1>a single digit world, do you ratchet down even lower

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<v Speaker 1>expected return on form of blended portfolio? Well, again, we

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<v Speaker 1>we and I say the markets, but certainly the case

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<v Speaker 1>of the investment firm that I run, we have had

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<v Speaker 1>a cautious view on growth for some time now, and

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<v Speaker 1>in fact, you could almost take the announcements yesterday and

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<v Speaker 1>today the other way to say kind of a bit

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<v Speaker 1>of relief that the central banks are gonna sort of

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<v Speaker 1>growth rather than rather than trying to hinder it. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we were just talking with Stephen Freeman from BNP parrybo

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<v Speaker 1>who's the net effect of what we're seeing from the

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<v Speaker 1>central banks is to continue the effort to push investors

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<v Speaker 1>out the risk curve, out farther in a reach for yield.

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<v Speaker 1>You're suggesting that may not be a good idea, or

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<v Speaker 1>at least from your perspective, you don't want to do that. No,

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<v Speaker 1>I think. I think we're in the business of taking risks,

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<v Speaker 1>so we understand risk, we try to be we try

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<v Speaker 1>to be prudent risk. But yes, I agree with that

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<v Speaker 1>analysis that the whether it's the absolute conscious intention or

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<v Speaker 1>or simply a consequent on so what the central banks

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<v Speaker 1>are doing, it is going to put investors further out

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<v Speaker 1>on the risk curve, particularly in Europe where they have

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<v Speaker 1>where they have massively tightened spreads on investor rate corporate

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<v Speaker 1>bonds by signaling that they were going to start buying them.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that that's probably a good thing. Risk

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<v Speaker 1>sounds like a scary word, but risk comes in many gradations,

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<v Speaker 1>many flavors, and I think you I think part of

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<v Speaker 1>the goal of this, and part of the whole way

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<v Speaker 1>monitory policy operates is to get is that when you

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<v Speaker 1>hold down rates, when you reduce rates by quie whatever

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<v Speaker 1>it is you're doing in that direction, you're drawing capital

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<v Speaker 1>into the markets. Uh, And that's a good thing. Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>I just want to point out dollar yen is strong,

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<v Speaker 1>yen three standard deviations. That really gets my attention. You

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<v Speaker 1>You wonder how they respond to that that's now become

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<v Speaker 1>We've gone from a move to a really significant move

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<v Speaker 1>to a low of one uh ten. My eyes are

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<v Speaker 1>failing mean one ten sixty seven. Well, it's definitely not

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<v Speaker 1>good news for obonomics. UH. And you wonder, Steve though

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<v Speaker 1>UH draws capital in the markets, but people have argued

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<v Speaker 1>that helps the small slice of society here in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's not helping the average person. Witnessed the political

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<v Speaker 1>campaign we're seeing and with the Fed's move yesterday, yes,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it has some positive effects. Certainly helps emerging markets,

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<v Speaker 1>but it isn't gonna help Japan. Isn't going to help Europe. No,

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<v Speaker 1>no clear thinking person would argue that for the US anyway,

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<v Speaker 1>our mix of economic policies are the right policies. The

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<v Speaker 1>FED is acting by defaulty they're the only player on

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<v Speaker 1>the field with UH with the ball, so to speak.

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<v Speaker 1>Congress has completely abdicated any responsibility to try to get

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<v Speaker 1>our economy back to a more acceptable growth level, and

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<v Speaker 1>so in the absence of that in the absence of

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<v Speaker 1>the president having a real authority to do anything under

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<v Speaker 1>our constant tuition, it leaves the fat and so they are,

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<v Speaker 1>to quote Muhammad Alarian's book, they are the only game

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<v Speaker 1>in town at the moment, and that is also true

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<v Speaker 1>in Europe. Have you read this book? I actually reviewed

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<v Speaker 1>this book for the New York Times. Excuse me. I

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<v Speaker 1>saw that I in my Sunday blur the third momost

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<v Speaker 1>the only reason, the only way to read Rattner Mike

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<v Speaker 1>McKee is after three mimosas. So I did that. I did.

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<v Speaker 1>What a wonderful block. I I do recommend only reading

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<v Speaker 1>me after the Life. There's a chapter but to the

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<v Speaker 1>point of where we are right now, when it goes

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<v Speaker 1>right into your investment world. That chapter he has on

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<v Speaker 1>game theory and on T decisions is awesome. What's cher

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<v Speaker 1>Yellin's te decision right now? Well? I would say I

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<v Speaker 1>did like the book a lot, and I was happy

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<v Speaker 1>to review it. I'm not sure I completely agree with

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<v Speaker 1>Mohammed that we're at this T junction because, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>he is the creator of the word of the phrase

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<v Speaker 1>new normal, and I don't see why we don't sort

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<v Speaker 1>of why it isn't very plausible, if likely, that we

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<v Speaker 1>stagger along at this two percent growth rate kind of

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<v Speaker 1>relatively indefinitely. Um, I think, I think I had an

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<v Speaker 1>interesting conversation with somebody about this the other day. People

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<v Speaker 1>too many people out there think that Janet Yellin secretly

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<v Speaker 1>knows exactly what she's going to do about interest rates,

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<v Speaker 1>and she just isn't telling us. That's not my view,

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<v Speaker 1>and I don't think it's the reality she liked all

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<v Speaker 1>the rest of us. You know, the famous John Maynard

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<v Speaker 1>Kine's lange, which he actually didn't say when the facts change,

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<v Speaker 1>I changed my mind. What do you do she's dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with with, you know, a constant stream of data and

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<v Speaker 1>updating and assessing her views and happily came to the

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<v Speaker 1>right view yesterday. That aren't necessarily working anymore. Well, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>the FED has been consistently wrong in its economic forecasts.

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<v Speaker 1>And I don't know whether it's simply the positive bias

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<v Speaker 1>of being a government policy maker that makes you kind

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<v Speaker 1>of cheering for the economy or why. But when you

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<v Speaker 1>look at the dot all the famous dot charts, they

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<v Speaker 1>have just been so overly optimistic for so long about

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<v Speaker 1>this recover what are you doing with the miners and

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<v Speaker 1>with golden particular, what do we do? What are you

0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:08.319
<v Speaker 1>doing within your investment house? Yeah, we generally don't invest

0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:10.640
<v Speaker 1>in gold. I don't like to invest in things that

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<v Speaker 1>we don't understand, but we Templeton join club. Yeah, but

0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:19.000
<v Speaker 1>we do have We do have a little bit of

0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:22.080
<v Speaker 1>an investment in in a mining situation where we feel

0:10:22.080 --> 0:10:24.120
<v Speaker 1>at the economics of mine. We're investing in a mine,

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<v Speaker 1>not in the gold. So speaking, Steve Ratner, always interesting. Um,

0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:30.360
<v Speaker 1>I give a review in New York Time this weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>Should but thank you for plugging that one, Stephen Radnor

0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:38.480
<v Speaker 1>with an important review. We'll put that on in social

0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:40.840
<v Speaker 1>I'll look it up and we'll get out Mr Reratner's

0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:46.400
<v Speaker 1>review of Dr l Arian's book. Rattner lifts the market

0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:52.880
<v Speaker 1>futures from negative eight to negative six. I'm not check

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<v Speaker 1>in with Michael. Are I get the latest world and

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<v Speaker 1>national headlines? Mike time. Thank you very much. Supreme Court

0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:00.839
<v Speaker 1>nominee Mary Garland plans today to meet with Senators Harry

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<v Speaker 1>Reid and Patrick Leahy on Capitol Hill Today. Democrats hope

0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:07.360
<v Speaker 1>to put pressure on Republicans who are refusing to consider

0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:11.360
<v Speaker 1>any Obama nominee. After a two week Senate recessed, White

0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:14.360
<v Speaker 1>House says Garland will meet with the Judiciary Committee Chairman

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<v Speaker 1>Chuck Grassley. Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia's military can

0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:22.520
<v Speaker 1>strengthen its remaining forces in Syria literally within a few

0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:25.640
<v Speaker 1>hours if necessary. Putin says, though we don't want to

0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:30.520
<v Speaker 1>do it. Putin says Russia's military operations in Syria created

0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:32.960
<v Speaker 1>the conditions for peace talks to help in the country's

0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:36.920
<v Speaker 1>five year war. Sea World says it's ending its practice

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<v Speaker 1>of killer whale breeding. Global News twenty four hours a day,

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<v Speaker 1>powered by our journalists more than a hundred fifty news

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<v Speaker 1>bureaus from around the world. On michaela bar like Tom maca,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks so much, Ran seriously, folks, so a bit of

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<v Speaker 1>a coming to the market. In the last ten minutes

0:11:53.440 --> 0:11:56.960
<v Speaker 1>again one ten a handle up to one eleven thirty four.

0:11:57.280 --> 0:12:00.440
<v Speaker 1>Bank of England out. Don't forget an interview with Justin

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<v Speaker 1>Trudeau of Canada in the next hour. Bloomberge snows update

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