1 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance and the markets in particular, there's 2 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 1: gone a belief that there's no way Trump could become president. 3 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: I continue to argue if there is a plausible tath, 4 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 1: this divergent monetary policy world that we live in is 5 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: not necessarily supportive of the US equity markets. This is 6 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,119 Speaker 1: Quewei three on its way to Kuwei fourteen. Whether we 7 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: like it or not, that's the reality. And there's traders. 8 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: That's how we have to deal Bloomberg surveillance. Your link 9 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 1: to the world of economics, finance and investment on Bloomberg Radio. 10 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: Good running everyone, Michael McKay and Tom Kane worldwide. This 11 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:41,200 Speaker 1: morning brought you by Cone Resident Accounting, tax advisory. Regulatory 12 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 1: changes can impact your business. See how the experts at 13 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: Cone Resident can help you navigate these complexities. Find out 14 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: more at Cone residuc dot com, Bank of England out 15 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: in our Central Bank, Derby with Indonesia, Norway earlier today 16 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 1: Carolina in New York with US. What do you see? 17 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 1: And it's like the Swiss we're holding study we have 18 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 1: for already seven years. We're at this record low nor 19 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 1: point five per cent is where we keep the key 20 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 1: rate tom nine to zero. Still not one dissenter again 21 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:11,479 Speaker 1: at the b o E not wanting to see rate 22 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 1: hikes anytime soon. We have asset purchases planning still to 23 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: hold billion pounds, but overall they're saying increased uncertain He's 24 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 1: surrounding the Brexit vote. This is what is putting off 25 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 1: any sort of interest rate hike. The pound remaining higher 26 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: against the dollar, up seven tenths of percent, and of 27 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: course boring costs still coming down on those on the 28 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 1: debt market was saying yields down about nine basis. That 29 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: was a real conundrum for Mark Kearney with Brexit coming up. 30 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: He doesn't want to contribute to the debate at all 31 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: and he was almost forced to, wasn't. He had to 32 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: come up in front of the Treasury Select Committee just 33 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: last week and we have to state what he felt 34 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: about a Brexit. He of course was outlining that the 35 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: Bank of England didn't want to make up a call 36 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: pro or against, but did say that there were going 37 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 1: to be concerns. True with a lifter. You've got the 38 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 1: chart up there, we'll put a Bloomberg radio plus we're 39 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 1: sometimes of percent. We're at one dollar to ever go 40 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 1: out for a beverage of your choice in London. But 41 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: when you do, do people talk about Brexit? Or is 42 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: it just the province of newspapers in Bloomberg when I 43 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: have a tiple of my fancy, Yes, it is being 44 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 1: talked about. It's all consuming tom at the moment. Everyone 45 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 1: is debating really whether it is good the small business 46 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: side of the equation. They are feeling, of course, if 47 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: you're not an exporter, they do seem to want to 48 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: potentially be pulling out of the EU. Large corporations are 49 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: standing firm that they really do feel that we need 50 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 1: to remain part of the European Union overall. And I 51 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 1: thank you so much sterling extendions gains today and Yann, 52 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 1: we're watching carefully with a huge move one ten sixty eight. 53 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 1: If someone has synthesized all that we see, or Stephen Ratner, 54 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 1: he is a most interesting person with some some legitimate work, 55 00:02:56,240 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 1: not only in financial investment but in journalism is well. 56 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: We should I think point out as a disclaimer that 57 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: at times he um manages money and gives investment counsel 58 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: of the principal owner of Bloomberg Radio on Michael Bloomberg, 59 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: Um Steve Rattner, The cacophony of central bank announcements in 60 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 1: the last number of weeks has become bewildering. In it 61 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:26,360 Speaker 1: all centers unreduced growth forecast. That seems to be the 62 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: common feature. The good news is that the central banks 63 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,080 Speaker 1: have caught up to reality, and for a while they 64 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 1: seem to be denying reality, which is that we are 65 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 1: in a slower growth environment. The markets knew it, the 66 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: economists knew it. I think individuals probably felt it in 67 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 1: their bones, but the central banks and the Fed anyway, 68 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: was in some kind of state of denial and thinking 69 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: it was still going to have four interest rate hikes 70 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: this year, or thinking at least that that was a 71 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 1: good idea. And so yesterday's announcement and the one today 72 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 1: are welcome because we we are in that kind of 73 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: an environment. And I think the far better of the 74 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: argument is for the central banks to stay their course 75 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 1: on providing monetary support in this very weak time. Does 76 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: it build, does it help growth, or is it just 77 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: putting a floor under it? I'm not sure I know 78 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 1: the difference in the sense is all. What I do 79 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,159 Speaker 1: know is that had they gone ahead with their interest 80 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 1: rate increases, it Look, you can make the argument a 81 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 1: quarter point here at quarter point there, it doesn't really matter. 82 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: But if in general they were going down the tightening path, 83 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 1: then that would, if you believe anything about economic theory, 84 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 1: make growth lower than whatever otherwise would have been. Is 85 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,679 Speaker 1: it huge? Is it is it immediate? Is it visible? 86 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: Probably not all those questions, but it would have been 87 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 1: move in the wrong direction. How do you link this 88 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: into investment? If we assume we've migrated from January two 89 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: thousand nine double digit enthusiasm off the bottom moments to 90 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:57,479 Speaker 1: a single digit world, do you ratchet down even lower 91 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: expected return on form of blended portfolio? Well, again, we 92 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 1: we and I say the markets, but certainly the case 93 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: of the investment firm that I run, we have had 94 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: a cautious view on growth for some time now, and 95 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 1: in fact, you could almost take the announcements yesterday and 96 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: today the other way to say kind of a bit 97 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: of relief that the central banks are gonna sort of 98 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: growth rather than rather than trying to hinder it. Well, 99 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: we were just talking with Stephen Freeman from BNP parrybo 100 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:33,159 Speaker 1: who's the net effect of what we're seeing from the 101 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 1: central banks is to continue the effort to push investors 102 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 1: out the risk curve, out farther in a reach for yield. 103 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 1: You're suggesting that may not be a good idea, or 104 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 1: at least from your perspective, you don't want to do that. No, 105 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 1: I think. I think we're in the business of taking risks, 106 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,160 Speaker 1: so we understand risk, we try to be we try 107 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: to be prudent risk. But yes, I agree with that 108 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: analysis that the whether it's the absolute conscious intention or 109 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 1: or simply a consequent on so what the central banks 110 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 1: are doing, it is going to put investors further out 111 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: on the risk curve, particularly in Europe where they have 112 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: where they have massively tightened spreads on investor rate corporate 113 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 1: bonds by signaling that they were going to start buying them. 114 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 1: And I think that that's probably a good thing. Risk 115 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 1: sounds like a scary word, but risk comes in many gradations, 116 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: many flavors, and I think you I think part of 117 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 1: the goal of this, and part of the whole way 118 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,279 Speaker 1: monitory policy operates is to get is that when you 119 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 1: hold down rates, when you reduce rates by quie whatever 120 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:34,839 Speaker 1: it is you're doing in that direction, you're drawing capital 121 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 1: into the markets. Uh, And that's a good thing. Mike, 122 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: I just want to point out dollar yen is strong, 123 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: yen three standard deviations. That really gets my attention. You 124 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,279 Speaker 1: You wonder how they respond to that that's now become 125 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:54,280 Speaker 1: We've gone from a move to a really significant move 126 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 1: to a low of one uh ten. My eyes are 127 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:02,919 Speaker 1: failing mean one ten sixty seven. Well, it's definitely not 128 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:06,720 Speaker 1: good news for obonomics. UH. And you wonder, Steve though 129 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 1: UH draws capital in the markets, but people have argued 130 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:14,119 Speaker 1: that helps the small slice of society here in the US, 131 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 1: but it's not helping the average person. Witnessed the political 132 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: campaign we're seeing and with the Fed's move yesterday, yes, 133 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: it's it has some positive effects. Certainly helps emerging markets, 134 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 1: but it isn't gonna help Japan. Isn't going to help Europe. No, 135 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: no clear thinking person would argue that for the US anyway, 136 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: our mix of economic policies are the right policies. The 137 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 1: FED is acting by defaulty they're the only player on 138 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: the field with UH with the ball, so to speak. 139 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: Congress has completely abdicated any responsibility to try to get 140 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: our economy back to a more acceptable growth level, and 141 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: so in the absence of that in the absence of 142 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 1: the president having a real authority to do anything under 143 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: our constant tuition, it leaves the fat and so they are, 144 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 1: to quote Muhammad Alarian's book, they are the only game 145 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 1: in town at the moment, and that is also true 146 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: in Europe. Have you read this book? I actually reviewed 147 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 1: this book for the New York Times. Excuse me. I 148 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: saw that I in my Sunday blur the third momost 149 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: the only reason, the only way to read Rattner Mike 150 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: McKee is after three mimosas. So I did that. I did. 151 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: What a wonderful block. I I do recommend only reading 152 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 1: me after the Life. There's a chapter but to the 153 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: point of where we are right now, when it goes 154 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 1: right into your investment world. That chapter he has on 155 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: game theory and on T decisions is awesome. What's cher 156 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: Yellin's te decision right now? Well? I would say I 157 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:47,439 Speaker 1: did like the book a lot, and I was happy 158 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 1: to review it. I'm not sure I completely agree with 159 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 1: Mohammed that we're at this T junction because, uh, you know, 160 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: he is the creator of the word of the phrase 161 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: new normal, and I don't see why we don't sort 162 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: of why it isn't very plausible, if likely, that we 163 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: stagger along at this two percent growth rate kind of 164 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 1: relatively indefinitely. Um, I think, I think I had an 165 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 1: interesting conversation with somebody about this the other day. People 166 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 1: too many people out there think that Janet Yellin secretly 167 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: knows exactly what she's going to do about interest rates, 168 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: and she just isn't telling us. That's not my view, 169 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: and I don't think it's the reality she liked all 170 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 1: the rest of us. You know, the famous John Maynard 171 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,199 Speaker 1: Kine's lange, which he actually didn't say when the facts change, 172 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: I changed my mind. What do you do she's dealing 173 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: with with, you know, a constant stream of data and 174 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:36,079 Speaker 1: updating and assessing her views and happily came to the 175 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 1: right view yesterday. That aren't necessarily working anymore. Well, Well, 176 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:45,079 Speaker 1: the FED has been consistently wrong in its economic forecasts. 177 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: And I don't know whether it's simply the positive bias 178 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 1: of being a government policy maker that makes you kind 179 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: of cheering for the economy or why. But when you 180 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,839 Speaker 1: look at the dot all the famous dot charts, they 181 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: have just been so overly optimistic for so long about 182 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 1: this recover what are you doing with the miners and 183 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 1: with golden particular, what do we do? What are you 184 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,319 Speaker 1: doing within your investment house? Yeah, we generally don't invest 185 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: in gold. I don't like to invest in things that 186 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: we don't understand, but we Templeton join club. Yeah, but 187 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: we do have We do have a little bit of 188 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 1: an investment in in a mining situation where we feel 189 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: at the economics of mine. We're investing in a mine, 190 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 1: not in the gold. So speaking, Steve Ratner, always interesting. Um, 191 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: I give a review in New York Time this weekend. 192 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:36,199 Speaker 1: Should but thank you for plugging that one, Stephen Radnor 193 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 1: with an important review. We'll put that on in social 194 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:40,840 Speaker 1: I'll look it up and we'll get out Mr Reratner's 195 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: review of Dr l Arian's book. Rattner lifts the market 196 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: futures from negative eight to negative six. I'm not check 197 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 1: in with Michael. Are I get the latest world and 198 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 1: national headlines? Mike time. Thank you very much. Supreme Court 199 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:00,839 Speaker 1: nominee Mary Garland plans today to meet with Senators Harry 200 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 1: Reid and Patrick Leahy on Capitol Hill Today. Democrats hope 201 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 1: to put pressure on Republicans who are refusing to consider 202 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: any Obama nominee. After a two week Senate recessed, White 203 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 1: House says Garland will meet with the Judiciary Committee Chairman 204 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 1: Chuck Grassley. Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia's military can 205 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: strengthen its remaining forces in Syria literally within a few 206 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: hours if necessary. Putin says, though we don't want to 207 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: do it. Putin says Russia's military operations in Syria created 208 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 1: the conditions for peace talks to help in the country's 209 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: five year war. Sea World says it's ending its practice 210 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 1: of killer whale breeding. Global News twenty four hours a day, 211 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 1: powered by our journalists more than a hundred fifty news 212 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 1: bureaus from around the world. On michaela bar like Tom maca, 213 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: thanks so much, Ran seriously, folks, so a bit of 214 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: a coming to the market. In the last ten minutes 215 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,960 Speaker 1: again one ten a handle up to one eleven thirty four. 216 00:11:57,280 --> 00:12:00,440 Speaker 1: Bank of England out. Don't forget an interview with Justin 217 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: Trudeau of Canada in the next hour. Bloomberge snows update 218 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,320 Speaker 1: brought you by c I T. From transportation to healthcare 219 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: to manufacturing. 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