Speaker 1: Whobody. Twenty nineteen was a different time, and in the
Speaker 1: middle of that time, we are returning to you with
Speaker 1: a classic episode, the Race to the Arctic. For a
Speaker 1: long time, even now, technically the Arctic has been one
Speaker 1: of those inaccessible regions of the world map. It's a
Speaker 1: why would you go there kind of place.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but there are a lot of countries that have
Speaker 2: territory that head right up into the old Arctic. So
Speaker 2: there are reasons to be up there, right. You got
Speaker 2: to defend your space. You got to make sure nobody
Speaker 2: else is coming up onto your lands and waters even.
Speaker 1: And waters even, and you're underwater lands. Oh right. Because
Speaker 1: when we were looking at this, the writing was already
Speaker 1: on the wall. There was something already in the wind.
Speaker 1: As the ice in the North Pole evaporates, we're looking
Speaker 1: at the possibility of enormous profitable trade routes, billions upon
Speaker 1: billions of dollars of freight transit, but also untold billions
Speaker 1: of dollars of previously inaccessible resources.
Speaker 3: Ooh, it's the raw stuff up there. Watch out, watch out.
Speaker 2: People will do terrible things to get those sweet, sweet resources.
Speaker 1: True story. Yeah, and when you tune into this one, folks,
Speaker 1: please please reach out to us because we want to
Speaker 1: know your thoughts. Who will control the Arctic?
Speaker 4: From UFOs to psychic powers and government conspiracies, history is
Speaker 4: riddled with unexplained events. You can turn back now or
Speaker 4: learn this stuff they don't want you to know.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to the show. My name is Matt Noel
Speaker 2: Is on an adventure.
Speaker 1: They call me Ben. We are joined with our super
Speaker 1: producer Paul Michig, controlled decand and most importantly, you are you.
Speaker 1: You are here that makes this stuff they don't want
Speaker 1: you to know. On a previous episode, Matt Man, we
Speaker 1: opened this show, you and I asking each other where
Speaker 1: we would travel, if we could travel anywhere in the world. Yes,
Speaker 1: and we you know, we don't talk about it too
Speaker 1: explicitly on the air here, but we whether for work
Speaker 1: or for other endeavors, we end up traveling like as
Speaker 1: a group and as individuals more often than not. You
Speaker 1: know what I mean?
Speaker 2: Yes, correct, And I cannot remember the verdict or our
Speaker 2: answers to the question of where we would travel. I'm
Speaker 2: going to change mine now to Germany. I want to
Speaker 2: go back to Germany. I just want to see what
Speaker 2: that place is like.
Speaker 1: You want to see what their whole thing is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a friend named Holger who lived with
Speaker 2: us for a while who lives out there.
Speaker 3: I want to go visit him.
Speaker 1: That's great. It's always great to visit a country where
Speaker 1: you have a connection with someone who lives there.
Speaker 3: Yes, exactly.
Speaker 2: And you know, on other previous episodes, Man, we talked
Speaker 2: about the shape of our planet.
Speaker 1: We did? We did? Is that foreshadowy?
Speaker 3: It is?
Speaker 2: Well, just to you know, remind people that yes, this
Speaker 2: is a large, spherical like structured planet, as most of
Speaker 2: the planets are, at least the ones we've observed, and
Speaker 2: that means that our planet has these two things on
Speaker 2: it called poles.
Speaker 1: Right, why would you go to the poles? In that
Speaker 1: conversation that I've had about traveling anywhere on the world,
Speaker 1: anywhere terrestrially, one of the questions I would get is
Speaker 1: why on Earth would you want to go to the
Speaker 1: North Pole? Or why on Earth would you want to
Speaker 1: go to Antarctica. You know, it's a valid question. I
Speaker 1: would say. One of the coolest things about going to
Speaker 1: Antarctica is that so few people throughout human history have
Speaker 1: ever made it there and returned alive.
Speaker 3: There you go that's worth it.
Speaker 1: So, you know, bragging rights neat little stamp on your passport,
Speaker 1: which is very dodgy from a legal perspective.
Speaker 3: Or maybe you just really enjoy the cold.
Speaker 1: Or maybe you're just super into the cold. You know,
Speaker 1: sleeping in your fridge isn't cutting it anymore. It's true, Matt,
Speaker 1: You're absolutely right. Planet Earth is very basic information. Planet
Speaker 1: Earth has two poles, and they are both cold inhospitable
Speaker 1: alien environments. These poles are places where human beings are
Speaker 1: not built to be. To the far far north, we
Speaker 1: have the Arctic surrounded by the Arctic Circle. To the
Speaker 1: far far south, we have the continent of Antarctica. We've
Speaker 1: done several episodes on Antarctica. I was surprised to remember
Speaker 1: we did one. Let's see, what's our most recent one
Speaker 1: we did?
Speaker 3: I couldn't tell you.
Speaker 2: I know we've discussed several times the various attempts to
Speaker 2: get to Antarctica and set up bases of oh yeah,
Speaker 2: from the World Wars.
Speaker 1: On, Yeah, what happens if there's a murder in Antarctica?
Speaker 1: That was one of our most recent.
Speaker 3: Ones, something yeah, something along that way.
Speaker 1: And then my favorite one to date has been what's
Speaker 1: beneath the Arctic Ice, which is one of the videos
Speaker 1: on our YouTube channel.
Speaker 2: That was a great one talking about this too, the
Speaker 2: strange research that could be going on there, because that's
Speaker 2: really all that happens there.
Speaker 1: Right, or the lethal diseases that may just wake up
Speaker 1: you know, there's something almost love craftying about it. But
Speaker 1: for the bulk of human history, very very few people,
Speaker 1: relatively few people have managed to visit these parts of
Speaker 1: the world. Even fewer people have managed to visit these
Speaker 1: parts of the world and return alive to tell the tale.
Speaker 1: And you have to ask yourself, of course, it makes
Speaker 1: sense that few people have managed to visit the Pollwyarth,
Speaker 1: would you let's talk a little bit about the Arctic
Speaker 1: and the Arctic Circle, which is going to be the
Speaker 1: primary focus for today's show. The Arctic is a region
Speaker 1: of the planet. It's north of the Arctic Circle, which
Speaker 1: will define in a moment, and it includes the Arctic Ocean, Greenland,
Speaker 1: Bath and Island, other smaller islands in the north and
Speaker 1: the very very northern areas of Europe, Russia, Alaska, and Canada.
Speaker 2: That's right, And really when you're talking about the Arctic,
Speaker 2: you're talking about stuff that is around the Arctic Ocean.
Speaker 2: So there are several seas that are up there along
Speaker 2: the Russian coast and several other bodies of water, but
Speaker 2: it's really the Arctic Ocean up there. And you know,
Speaker 2: there are really five nations that you're talking about if
Speaker 2: you're talking about the Arctic Powers or the Arctic countries,
Speaker 2: the controlling powers up there. You've got Russia, the United
Speaker 2: States with Alaska, Norway, Denmark and slash, Greenland and Canada.
Speaker 2: These are these are the people or the powers you're
Speaker 2: talking about when you're when you're going to be discussing
Speaker 2: maybe land rights and usage rights of that area.
Speaker 1: And that's the that's by the narrowest definition of the
Speaker 1: Arctic as a whole. Yes, just just top down Arctic
Speaker 1: Ocean and the five closest nations around it. Yes, the
Speaker 1: region has also been defined as the area above the
Speaker 1: Arctic Circle. And in Russia this area is referred to
Speaker 1: as something that translates to the High North. And if
Speaker 1: we if we go by that definition, then we add
Speaker 1: some other countries to the mix. Iceland, Sweden and Finland
Speaker 1: also become Arctic Powers, even though they don't have a
Speaker 1: coast on the Arctic Ocean. So these eight nations together
Speaker 1: they form what's called the Arctic Council.
Speaker 2: And they've got a great website you can check out
Speaker 2: by the way they do the Arctic Council. It's an
Speaker 2: arcticdh Council dot org.
Speaker 1: What makes the website great, Matt.
Speaker 2: It's very difficult to read because of the color choices
Speaker 2: that they've made, but it's also it's got a lot
Speaker 2: of cool information in there, and I don't know, just
Speaker 2: check it out if you're interested in exactly what that is.
Speaker 1: And when we talk about when we talk about the polls,
Speaker 1: one thing that makes the Arctic Circle very, very different
Speaker 1: from Antarctica is that this is pretty populated. I mean
Speaker 1: sparsely populated, but pretty populated. There are about four million
Speaker 1: people who live there. Of those four million people, about
Speaker 1: half a Russian and this is still the case despite
Speaker 1: the fact that living in the High North, living in
Speaker 1: the High North of Russia is a rough life and
Speaker 1: the area has been losing population for the several decades.
Speaker 1: So we've mentioned the Arctic Circle. What is that It
Speaker 1: is essentially an imaginary line. Our species has created it.
Speaker 1: We all agree that that's a bully idea and so
Speaker 1: we're going to keep it around. It's located at sixty
Speaker 1: six point six degrees north latitude, and we use that
Speaker 1: latitude as a way to define or demarcate the southernmost
Speaker 1: part of the Arctic. Every part of the land and
Speaker 1: sea within the Arctic Circle is very, very cold, and
Speaker 1: historically speaking, much of it has just been covered with ice.
Speaker 1: In addition to the temperature, just the regular weather sucks too.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it really does.
Speaker 2: If you see a picture of the Arctic Circle, why
Speaker 2: it's called the Arctic Circle because that latitude makes this
Speaker 2: really nice circle there, and the ice is the defining
Speaker 2: factor that Ben is talking about here. If you're looking
Speaker 2: at an image of it from the top down, it's
Speaker 2: it's a rough place. So in the midwinter months in
Speaker 2: this area, the sun never really rises at all, It
Speaker 2: just doesn't. You just don't have sun essentially, in Temperatures
Speaker 2: stay very very low because of that, and then they
Speaker 2: reach massive lows to about negative fifty degrees fahrenheit at
Speaker 2: the higher latitudes in this region because you know, you
Speaker 2: do have varying latitudes there, and then in the summer months,
Speaker 2: like if you go a little bit further south, you
Speaker 2: get twenty four hours of sunlight a day, and that
Speaker 2: has a pretty big effect on that region because it's
Speaker 2: going to melt all the sea. You know, the ice
Speaker 2: that's coming up right that's being formed there from the
Speaker 2: super cold region, and this is one of the main
Speaker 2: reasons that icebergs end up breaking off from this like
Speaker 2: frozen northern area and then floating south. And now this
Speaker 2: right here is one of the big things we're going
Speaker 2: to talk about later when it comes to the economics
Speaker 2: of this region and some of the the reasons powers
Speaker 2: are fighting to control this region because of this ice.
Speaker 2: As it's melting from the north and goes south, you
Speaker 2: can't it's very difficult to get ships through there.
Speaker 1: And these these crushing temperatures. Just to put this in
Speaker 1: perspective for everybody outside of what the United States, mianmar
Speaker 1: and Namibia. Sure, negative fifty degrees fahrenheit is negative forty
Speaker 1: five point five degrees celsius. So I hope that some
Speaker 1: of us listening were like, negative fifty it's cold, but
Speaker 1: what is that. I hope that really impacted you. We've
Speaker 1: brought it over to Celsia.
Speaker 2: Here are freezing temperatures where my hand is around my
Speaker 2: chest and down there near the floor is where negative
Speaker 2: fifty is.
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, that's great. You're absolutely right. The icebergs breaking off,
Speaker 1: the rogue ice floating around, I call it rogue, but yeah,
Speaker 1: really humans are the rogue element here. This stuff makes
Speaker 1: it very difficult and dangerous to move ships through, to
Speaker 1: move vessels across the water, or it has historically. That
Speaker 1: has not stopped people from living in the Arctic Circle.
Speaker 1: This is not new territory. There's not a brand new suburb.
Speaker 1: People have lived there for thousands and thousands of years.
Speaker 1: If we wanted a ballpark, we could say the earliest
Speaker 1: people were around nine thousand years ago. It's an ancient land,
Speaker 1: and while they have lived there, it hasn't been easy
Speaker 1: to do so. It turned out that despite the thousands
Speaker 1: of years of human civilization, admittedly sparse human civilization, but
Speaker 1: human civilization nonetheless, no one actually reached the northernmost point.
Speaker 1: No one reached the North Pole until the beginning of
Speaker 1: the twentieth century, as far as we know. Officially, in
Speaker 1: nineteen oh nine, a guy named Robert E. Perry became
Speaker 1: the first documented human being to physically reach the North
Speaker 1: Pole again, this brutal part of the world. He was not,
Speaker 1: by any means the first guy to try it. He
Speaker 1: was just the first to make it that we know of.
Speaker 3: That's right and well.
Speaker 2: And when we say that's what we know is because
Speaker 2: this guy, Robert E. Piery Perry, Robert E. Perry, he
Speaker 2: was well known to us. There were a lot of
Speaker 2: other indigenous peoples that were living around this area far
Speaker 2: before that, at least that we understand. So if you're
Speaker 2: talking about the four million people that currently exist and
Speaker 2: live there, you're talking about mostly Inuit, Sammy, and you
Speaker 2: know people who live in.
Speaker 1: Russia and navigating the Arctic because of the ice that
Speaker 1: you mentioned, Matt, and because of the temperatures, it's incredibly
Speaker 1: dangerous and potentially incredibly rewarding on a couple of fronts. First,
Speaker 1: the realm of commerce, the ability to transport goods across
Speaker 1: this area of ocean can present tremendous economic advantage to
Speaker 1: any nation or corporation controlling shipping routes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, because you're also going to have problems navigating this
Speaker 2: by air this area because of the temperature, sometimes because
Speaker 2: of other issues that you're dealing with at the northern Pole.
Speaker 2: So having a giant ship getting through the water with
Speaker 2: all of the freight that it could carry, that would
Speaker 2: be hugely advantageous. The other problem here is the realm
Speaker 2: of military might, because if you could, let's say you're
Speaker 2: Russia and you already have roughly fifty percent of the
Speaker 2: surrounding land mass of the Arctic Circle, if you can
Speaker 2: move forward and fully navigate the entire Arctic Ocean well
Speaker 2: and easily, then it really changes something that we've mentioned
Speaker 2: before over here called force projection, which is just having
Speaker 2: the ability to have a ship with weapons on it
Speaker 2: wherever you want it to be at any time.
Speaker 1: And up until recently, the present of all that ice
Speaker 1: made both of these goals thought exercises, you know what
Speaker 1: I mean, hypothetical scenarios. Yeah, not attainable things. And let's
Speaker 1: take a brief, a brief side trip all the way
Speaker 1: down south to Antarctica, just to mention it, because a
Speaker 1: lot of these things will apply to Antarctic as well.
Speaker 1: Southernmost continent on Earth. It's the least populous surprise surprise
Speaker 1: by far. That's because it's also the possessor of several superlatives.
Speaker 1: It is not only the driest place in the world,
Speaker 1: it is also the coldest place in the world and sorry,
Speaker 1: Chicago the windiest place in the world. It's not a country.
Speaker 1: It has no government, there is no native population. The
Speaker 1: entire continent is set aside for now as a scientific preserve,
Speaker 1: but that hasn't stopped countries from laying territorial claims. Britain, France, Norway, Australia,
Speaker 1: New Zealand, Chile and Argentine have all laid claims. The
Speaker 1: Nazi Party or Germany did as well. During World War Two,
Speaker 1: military activities banned on this continent, and it's also a
Speaker 1: legal to prospect for minerals or oil. Fifty different nations,
Speaker 1: including Russia, China, and the US, have agreed with this
Speaker 1: Antarctic treaty, but everybody's all about bending the rules, especially
Speaker 1: as it gets easier and easier to find stuff there.
Speaker 1: So that's how it stands now. We're going to spend
Speaker 1: most of our time on the Arctic today. But it's
Speaker 1: important to note that some of the same concerns that
Speaker 1: apply to the North Pole apply or at least will
Speaker 1: apply to the South Pole. And the big question is
Speaker 1: what happens when all this changes.
Speaker 2: So yeah, we've really been just looking at the background
Speaker 2: for a lot of this stuff. But what happens when
Speaker 2: when some of the ice melts, when it gets a
Speaker 2: little warmer, when some of these things that were just
Speaker 2: bubble thought bubbles in someone's head in a situation room,
Speaker 2: become an actual actionable plan.
Speaker 3: That's what we're looking at today. Right.
Speaker 1: We've explored a bit of the history. We've taken a
Speaker 1: brief look at the present day situation. Yet we are
Speaker 1: living in a time rife with Malcolm Gladwell esque tipping points.
Speaker 1: They're dangling, lumering, capering, swinging wildly on the horizon. Yes, sure,
Speaker 1: the climate in these areas is changing, but the economic, geopolitical,
Speaker 1: and military landscapes are changing as well. And the race
Speaker 1: began years ago, it was just not on your mainstream
Speaker 1: news networks. It's becoming increasingly apparent that this may well
Speaker 1: be one of the next great global contests, and the
Speaker 1: outcome of this race may well determine the course of
Speaker 1: human affairs for decades, perhaps centuries to come. In short,
Speaker 1: who will control the Arctic?
Speaker 2: And we'll get to that right after a word from
Speaker 2: our sponsor.
Speaker 1: Here's where it gets crazy. Everybody wants a piece, that's it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there are a lot of powers that are interested,
Speaker 2: and not just the ones who are immediately adjacent to
Speaker 2: the Arctic.
Speaker 1: Circle right, right, So we know that different countries have
Speaker 1: historically laid claim to the Arctic, right, and there have
Speaker 1: been numerous disputes about this, which we can explore. But
Speaker 1: the accelerated trend of changing climate or temperatures in these
Speaker 1: areas is also accelerating the rate of change in geopolitics
Speaker 1: of the Arctic.
Speaker 3: So yeah, if we want to take a quick.
Speaker 2: Look at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations twenty eighteen
Speaker 2: report cards, specifically the Arctic report Card, you can find
Speaker 2: that at Arctic DOAA dot gov if you want to
Speaker 2: follow along here. But in their highlights, they're talking about
Speaker 2: surface air temperatures in the Arctic. They've continued to warm
Speaker 2: at twice the rate relative to the rest of the globe,
Speaker 2: which is troubling. The air temperatures there for the past
Speaker 2: five years have exceeded all previous records since nineteen hundred,
Speaker 2: And there's a whole bunch of other stuff in here
Speaker 2: that you can look at, specifically talking about sea ice.
Speaker 3: Let's see, sea ice.
Speaker 2: Remained younger, thinner, and covered less area than in the past.
Speaker 2: The twelve lowest extents of the satellite record have occurred
Speaker 2: in the last twelve years in the Arctic, And there's
Speaker 2: a toime like, if you really want to dig deep
Speaker 2: into the information, you can find it there on the
Speaker 2: report card. But essentially it's just saying that the ice
Speaker 2: is receding. There's less of it, it's younger ice, it's
Speaker 2: not building up the thick levels that it used to.
Speaker 2: It really is happening, and it's happening now and it
Speaker 2: has been happening.
Speaker 1: And this is catastrophic for the creatures, for the wildlife
Speaker 1: that have adapted over millions and millions of years to
Speaker 1: live in this environment. It's terrible for those. This is
Speaker 1: one of the worst times in polar bear history to
Speaker 1: be a polar bear. However, for humans in the short term,
Speaker 1: if we look at the checkers game rather than the
Speaker 1: chess game, this could be a bonanza, a cavalcade of
Speaker 1: money to be made, assuming that we still practice the
Speaker 1: economic ideology of money in the near future, which we
Speaker 1: probably will because we're not a super creative species. This development,
Speaker 1: should it continue, will unlock massive hydrocarbon and mineral resources
Speaker 1: in the Arctic and in the Continental Shelf. This could also,
Speaker 1: at the same time make a year round northern sea
Speaker 1: route practical via two ways Russia's Northeast Passage or Canada's
Speaker 1: Northwest Passage. And the reason this is important is because
Speaker 1: it could cut transit time to ship from somewhere in
Speaker 1: East Asia to Europe or North America's east coast by
Speaker 1: thirty percent, which may not sound like a lot, but
Speaker 1: it's huge.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's huge.
Speaker 1: Like if you ever get a check and taxes are
Speaker 1: thirty percent of that, you know you'll really feel it.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, yes, And as we're thinking about this, it's not
Speaker 2: you know, we mentioned Canada's Northwest Passage and Russia, Russia's
Speaker 2: Northeast Passage. It's not just those countries those nations that
Speaker 2: would be using those passages. It's this has wider implications.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, this has wider implications. It goes down to
Speaker 1: the argument of what should be considered international waters and
Speaker 1: what should be considered sovereign waters.
Speaker 2: Right well, and then even if it's not international waters,
Speaker 2: countries and nations working together with trade deals to use
Speaker 2: those waters, right And it's just there's so many there's
Speaker 2: so many things to think about with it.
Speaker 1: A lot of you know what. Now you mentioned it, Matt,
Speaker 1: A lot of lawyers are gonna make a ton of
Speaker 1: cash off this, too, y. So the thing is that
Speaker 1: this could economically be very good for a ton of
Speaker 1: nations and a ton of people throughout the world, depending
Speaker 1: on how it's played out. However, without sounding too skeptical
Speaker 1: of our ability to work together, we do have to
Speaker 1: point out that one of the first possibilities on the horizon,
Speaker 1: let's say all this ice melts, one of the first
Speaker 1: possibilities on the horizon is going.
Speaker 2: To be war, or at least the threat of war, right,
Speaker 2: the posturing.
Speaker 1: Well, let's call it, yeah, posturing, rivalry, brinksmanship, whatever you
Speaker 1: want to call it. What you know what, why don't
Speaker 1: we call it Russia and America too? Oh go electric
Speaker 1: Arctic boogaloo.
Speaker 3: Okay, that's great.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Well, if you're listening and you're in the
Speaker 1: un please feel free to use that just credit our show.
Speaker 1: The disappearance of ice in the Arctic immediately changes the
Speaker 1: status quo for Russia and the United States in the
Speaker 1: following ways, in ways that are very very good for
Speaker 1: the Federated States of Russia. Moscow suddenly gets access to
Speaker 1: more than four thousand miles of Arctic coastline, and that
Speaker 1: would fundamentally transform Russia from a continental to a maritime power.
Speaker 1: Russia would have access to all weather bases and immediately
Speaker 1: start constructing them.
Speaker 3: By the way, Yeah, it would be a no brainer
Speaker 3: to do that.
Speaker 1: It would be ridiculous not to do it. This also
Speaker 1: creates security risk along Russia's northern border, Alaska and Russia
Speaker 1: being very close together, and previously these concerns just didn't apply.
Speaker 1: They're not applicable because of the area's harsh climate. It's
Speaker 1: just too much of pain to do stuff there. So,
Speaker 1: the prospect of the Arctic Ocean emerging as a new
Speaker 1: theater of military rivalry or what did you call it?
Speaker 3: Met naughty boats?
Speaker 1: Yes, of naughty boat tag. There we go. That's that's
Speaker 1: the way to explain for it, of naughty boat tag.
Speaker 1: This prospect is being taken very very seriously, not by
Speaker 1: just the US, but by NATO, by Moscow, of course,
Speaker 1: and they're trying to figure out how they are going
Speaker 1: to sort this out without entering into what's called a
Speaker 1: hot war.
Speaker 3: Yeah, where stuff is actually fired.
Speaker 1: Right, well, so where stuff is actually fired from from
Speaker 1: from one puppet master to the other puppet master. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so like a proxy war is occurring in Syria.
Speaker 2: That's where the hands go out and manipulate the other things.
Speaker 1: Right, and they fire at each other, exactly, Proxy wars
Speaker 1: in Afghanistan, proxy wars like in Southeast Asia. These things happen,
Speaker 1: but this presents a situation where it could possibly be
Speaker 1: a genuine military conflict the likes of which we haven't
Speaker 1: seen since World War Two.
Speaker 2: And just if you wanted to have an example of
Speaker 2: how important naval bases are to the Russian Federation Russian
Speaker 2: Federation of States, is how to say it to Russia.
Speaker 2: You just you can look to several years ago in
Speaker 2: Ukraine and Crimea and the handling of some of the
Speaker 2: shipping and naval bases that were so important in that
Speaker 2: region to the country, and the actions that were taken
Speaker 2: to make sure those were secured. Just if you if
Speaker 2: you want to take those as examples, you can understand
Speaker 2: how important this stuff is, especially if then you multiply
Speaker 2: it by the scale that it would be in the Arctic.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, absolutely, that's the next all example in Crimea itself
Speaker 1: has It was sad to see that drop out of
Speaker 1: the news cycle because the story of Crimea it self
Speaker 1: is fascinating, and it doesn't it doesn't start, you know,
Speaker 1: just a few years ago when Russia invaded or excuse me, when.
Speaker 3: When patriots in Crimea, guys with.
Speaker 1: Balaklava's right, Yeah, Anyway, there are people some of us
Speaker 1: listening are saying, all right, guys, that's a little alarmist.
Speaker 3: You're going cold war on us.
Speaker 1: You're going cold war, You're going hot war on us,
Speaker 1: You're going World War three on us, because that's what
Speaker 1: you're essentially implied. Right. The problem is that now we
Speaker 1: are not talking about two nations fighting over a border,
Speaker 1: and we have not been talking about that sort of
Speaker 1: thing in world politics and world militaries for decades. Everybody
Speaker 1: is crewed up now. Every country is in some sort
Speaker 1: of gang to one degree or another. And a war
Speaker 1: with a European country who's a member of NATO means
Speaker 1: that you're beefing with all of NATO. Yeah, And if
Speaker 1: you are starting to fight with Russia, you're starting to
Speaker 1: fight with all of Russia's buddies as well. And now
Speaker 1: that this previously inaccessible part of the world may be
Speaker 1: up for grabs, everybody wants a peace. We talked about
Speaker 1: the Arctic Council, those five eight nations.
Speaker 2: So that's Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway,
Speaker 2: the Russian Federation, Sweden, and the US.
Speaker 1: But again, when we say everybody wants a peace, we
Speaker 1: mean picture that Gary Oldman, give everyone everything, right. China, Japan,
Speaker 1: and South Korea all also want to be involved in
Speaker 1: Arctic affairs, and China is the PRC People's Republic of
Speaker 1: China is the biggest player in this game, or at
Speaker 1: least the most visible about it. China recently declared itself
Speaker 1: to be a quote near Arctic state, which is weird. Yeah,
Speaker 1: which is weird because if you look at this scale
Speaker 1: of just you know, I'll be I'll be a jerk
Speaker 1: about it. If you look at the scale of the
Speaker 1: Solar system, every state is a near arctic state. Okay,
Speaker 1: it's like what what is what is not a near
Speaker 1: Arctic state? Is is Uganda or the Bahamas or those
Speaker 1: not near Arctic states? Sure? Sure, arguably right, But that's
Speaker 1: that's a very relative term, you know what I mean?
Speaker 1: You could you could be you could be like a
Speaker 1: little north or south of the equator and then call
Speaker 1: yourself an near Antarctic State because you're closer slightly to Antarctica.
Speaker 3: There you go.
Speaker 1: I don't know, I just I think it's I think
Speaker 1: it's slippery semantics. But they say they're in New Arctic State,
Speaker 1: and in January twenty eighteen, they unveiled their plans for
Speaker 1: a polar silk route, announcing that the country of China
Speaker 1: is an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs. I would agree
Speaker 1: with that because of just the sheer volume of stuff
Speaker 1: shipping to and from that country.
Speaker 2: Yes, and that's exactly what they're interested in. They want
Speaker 2: to be able to ship everything through there and save
Speaker 2: that thirty percent or however much they would end up
Speaker 2: saving shipping things. And since twenty thirteen they've been they've
Speaker 2: had observer status in the Arctic Council because they've kind
Speaker 2: of seen this on the horizon on the both climate
Speaker 2: horizon as well as the geopolitical horizon. So it's just
Speaker 2: something to keep your eye on for sure.
Speaker 1: Right And they've been building influence in this area for
Speaker 1: as you said, Matt, for some time. But the issue
Speaker 1: here goes into the question of how closely trade and
Speaker 1: military action may or may not be related, and.
Speaker 2: When we talked about deals like, it's not just those
Speaker 2: countries with the Northeast and the Northwest passage, it's people
Speaker 2: making deals with those countries. And to this effect, Beijing
Speaker 2: was talking specifically with Canada and Russia to work out
Speaker 2: some kind of free trade agreement with both of these
Speaker 2: countries with some of the Scandinavian nations that are up
Speaker 2: there to you know, for China essentially to infuse money
Speaker 2: into some of the bigger projects that are happening in
Speaker 2: those areas. Specifically, there's one called the Yamal Lng project
Speaker 2: that which has to do with natural gas and oil
Speaker 2: capturing through Russia. And there are other projects in the
Speaker 2: US in Alaska that are doing you know, pretty much
Speaker 2: the same thing.
Speaker 3: As well as Canada.
Speaker 2: And it's just it's China, like you said, Ben, trying
Speaker 2: to have it seat at the table, to get in
Speaker 2: on the ground floor with these projects as investors, to
Speaker 2: then have a stake in other parts of it.
Speaker 1: Right, right, if the legal framework of geopolitics won't work,
Speaker 1: then surely the financial framework of who owes who money
Speaker 1: will will deliver. Right there you go, And let's real
Speaker 1: quick on the timeline here. According to NASA Global Climate
Speaker 1: models predict the Arctic will be ice free during the
Speaker 1: summer months by the middle of this century. Wo so
Speaker 1: by twenty fifty And that's very much a ballpark that
Speaker 1: could be that that could mean anywhere from twenty forty
Speaker 1: to twenty fifty five, you know.
Speaker 2: So it's so weird with timescales because it feels so
Speaker 2: long term, and yet that is fully short term to
Speaker 2: twenty fifty.
Speaker 3: Yes, that is not long at all.
Speaker 1: Hey man, you'll probably you'll probably be here.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 1: Maybe you should schedu go ahead and book your tickets
Speaker 1: now my cruise, your artic cruise. You can take it
Speaker 1: on a Chinese icebreaker. Perhaps the snow Dragon two and
Speaker 1: the snow Dragon one have already been created and there's
Speaker 1: an expedition scheduled for the first half of twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1: This is also happening in This is happening in a
Speaker 1: zero sum environment. To be absolutely clear, what that means
Speaker 1: is that there there's a finite amount of power, there's
Speaker 1: a finite amount of territory, and there's a finite amount
Speaker 1: of resource to be extracted.
Speaker 3: So why there are a lot of resources that we'll
Speaker 3: get into.
Speaker 1: Right the annual the economy of this region could exceed
Speaker 1: four hundred and fifty billion dollars US. We're bringing up
Speaker 1: just that point because the government of China has been
Speaker 1: quick to capitalize on what they see as lack of
Speaker 1: expertise and interest from the US from Uncle Sam from Washington,
Speaker 1: d C. And that's not related to in let's not
Speaker 1: related to any particular administration. These big boy rules. We're
Speaker 1: talking about the way other countries look at each other.
Speaker 1: But real politics tells us other countries only care about
Speaker 1: what's happening domestically in a different country if it will
Speaker 1: help their bottom line or give them an opportunity to
Speaker 1: require more power and influence on the global stage.
Speaker 3: Can I use this right?
Speaker 1: Can I use this otherwise? Why are you telling me
Speaker 1: we have problems of our own? Says every country? So resources,
Speaker 1: that's why. That's That's ultimately what it comes down to.
Speaker 2: Almost every time I'm on the show, Yeah, almost every time,
Speaker 2: not every time.
Speaker 1: Almost every time in history.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know.
Speaker 1: It might be dressed up as values or interest or
Speaker 1: national security, national security or someone's religion makes you know,
Speaker 1: gets us in a stink or whatever, But really, ultimately
Speaker 1: that's that's all window dressing. It's all a nice sided
Speaker 1: ketchup to the actual fries, which are resources. So yes,
Speaker 1: they're tremendous shipping and military force projection advantages to controlling
Speaker 1: the Arctic. But why are those important? Because it boils
Speaker 1: down to what can you get from there and what
Speaker 1: can you move across there? That's it.
Speaker 2: So resources, But why are they so important? Let's get
Speaker 2: into that right after a quick word from our sponsor.
Speaker 1: So here's the thing. You nailed it in one word,
Speaker 1: that resources. Every every conflict is about resources. Right, We've
Speaker 1: said this before. We don't just mean it in post
Speaker 1: World War two. We don't just mean it in terms
Speaker 1: of Russia grabbing crimea or something. We mean throughout human history,
Speaker 1: throughout the span of our civilization, virtually every large scale
Speaker 1: conflict has been about resources. Now it'll be dressed up,
Speaker 1: you know, there will be some window dressing, especially in democracies. Right,
Speaker 1: it will be like, oh, it's our values, right, yeah,
Speaker 1: Or what's another one.
Speaker 2: It presents a national security risk there we go.
Speaker 1: Or you know, if you go a little further back,
Speaker 1: these people's religion is bad to us.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that lumber that's all over there, that has nothing
Speaker 2: to do with it.
Speaker 1: That control of the bay has nothing to do with it.
Speaker 2: The ability to send things down this river because you know,
Speaker 2: don't worry about that.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: Catholicism bad, And of course religious and racial discrimination is
Speaker 1: a real thing. It's also an avenue to justify taking
Speaker 1: stuff from people.
Speaker 3: It's a lever you can pull.
Speaker 1: It's yeah, it's very much. War is very much a
Speaker 1: stuff oriented thing.
Speaker 2: Are we too cynical or is this? I mean, this
Speaker 2: feels so real to me and I've seen it happen
Speaker 2: so many times throughout history. I'm not being too cynical
Speaker 2: in these thoughts, am I?
Speaker 3: Because I really do feel like this is just the truth.
Speaker 1: I am the worst person to ask because I completely
Speaker 1: agree with you, Matt. I mean there are okay, so yes,
Speaker 1: it's true, there are tremendous shipping and military force projection
Speaker 1: advantages to having control over all or some of the Arctic,
Speaker 1: especially those shipping routes. But why are they important? Why
Speaker 1: it's not bragging rights. It ultimately boils down to resource extraction.
Speaker 1: What can we get from there? What can we move
Speaker 1: across there? In two thousand and eight, the US Geological
Speaker 1: Service estimated that the Arctic alone contains more than one
Speaker 1: six hundred and sixty nine trillion cubic feet of natural
Speaker 1: gas reserves.
Speaker 3: O m GIA. So this amount is massive.
Speaker 2: It's about thirty percent of all of the world's remaining
Speaker 2: supply of natural gas that has not been in some
Speaker 2: way found developed or begun to be extracted. This is
Speaker 2: that number is almost four times the entire United States
Speaker 2: reserves that exists right now.
Speaker 1: And that this number also does not include what are
Speaker 1: called methane hydrates on the seabed, which can also be
Speaker 1: converted to a very valuable resource. The addition of this stuff,
Speaker 1: if it ever becomes cost effective to extract it, which
Speaker 1: is a big deal, which is a huge deal, could
Speaker 1: boost potential reserves exponentially. In addition, there are probably around
Speaker 1: forty four billion barrels of natural gas liquids and ninety
Speaker 1: billion barrels of oil. That's about thirteen percent of the
Speaker 1: undeveloped oil reserves on the planet. In one place, the
Speaker 1: Geological Service estimates that eighty four percent of the Arctic's
Speaker 1: hydrocarbons are offshore. Sixty percent of the Arctic oil is
Speaker 1: in Russian territory, and not just in the territory that
Speaker 1: the Russian government thinks belongs to it, which is different,
Speaker 1: but in the territory that everybody sort of agrees belongs
Speaker 1: to it. So according to their surveys, the Russian surveys,
Speaker 1: ninety percent more than ninety percent of the hydrocarbon reserves
Speaker 1: are located in the Arctic zone of the Siberian Continental Shelf,
Speaker 1: And without going into the weeds too much, this is
Speaker 1: a commercial powder keg. This could guarantee Russia's seat at
Speaker 1: the table. One of the criticisms that you'll hear about
Speaker 1: Russia pretty often is that Russia is pretending to be
Speaker 1: a world power or a superpower. It's got a lot
Speaker 1: of domestic problems, as we all do. Again, you know,
Speaker 1: most other world leaders care about that to the point
Speaker 1: that it might present an opportunity for them, but otherwise
Speaker 1: it's like, not my job, not my problem. And so
Speaker 1: the criticism that you'll hear about Russia is that they
Speaker 1: have two things that give them a seat at the table,
Speaker 1: a nuclear arsenal and gas reserves. Okay, hydrocarbon reserves. So
Speaker 1: if they were able to exponentially increase the amount of
Speaker 1: stuff that they control in a hydrocarbon economy, then they
Speaker 1: also they also increase their prominence and importance and influence
Speaker 1: in world affairs. You know, there were times a few
Speaker 1: years back, not so long ago, in recent history, while
Speaker 1: we were alive, when Russia could literally just turn off
Speaker 1: the gas supply to a large swath of Europe just
Speaker 1: if they wanted to, just you know, I like fun, Like,
Speaker 1: what else are you doing on a Friday? That's power,
Speaker 1: That is power is power. It's not clear, however, yet,
Speaker 1: whether these reserves are whether it makes sense to get
Speaker 1: them right now?
Speaker 3: Oh yes, of now, well, yeah, that's the whole thing.
Speaker 2: It's building the infrastructure and the having the technology to
Speaker 2: be able to extract that stuff from the depths where
Speaker 2: it exists in those cold temperatures and all the all
Speaker 2: the other factors. Even if it begins melting, it's still
Speaker 2: a tremendous It would be a tremendous achievement to be
Speaker 2: able to get that, and it would cost so much money,
Speaker 2: which is one of the biggest problems here. There's this
Speaker 2: thing called the International Energy Agency.
Speaker 3: Or the IEA.
Speaker 2: We love to read those, and they believe that in
Speaker 2: order to make this economically feasible to do to extract this,
Speaker 2: you know, the oil and natural gas here, the average
Speaker 2: price essentially of oil would have to be around one
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty dollars per barrel for the development for
Speaker 2: this to even work, to make to have it make sense,
Speaker 2: you can make money back, so you're not just throwing
Speaker 2: money into the Arctic in order to make some back.
Speaker 1: Right, and for perspective, right now, as we're recording it,
Speaker 1: crude oil probably averaged around sixty five bucks a barrel
Speaker 1: or so, yeah, February of this year, so oil would
Speaker 1: almost have to double.
Speaker 2: You got to make some calls to the opequ big
Speaker 2: heads and talk to them.
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, they're also cutting production right, Yeah, and
Speaker 1: rush is part of the conversation. Oh man, different show.
Speaker 1: So there's all so the cost of creating all the
Speaker 1: infrastructure you need to get this stuff out right, This
Speaker 1: is no longer Beverly Hillbilly's land. Kudos to anyone I
Speaker 1: got that reference. They will have to build around one
Speaker 1: trillion US dollars worth or sixty nine trillion rubles worth
Speaker 1: of stuff to extract this oil, to process it, to
Speaker 1: make it something that they can sell, and they don't
Speaker 1: have this country, Russia does not have the technology so
Speaker 1: far as we know, to exploit those deep water deposits.
Speaker 1: Yet additionally, a lot of the stuff they do have
Speaker 1: to extract energy from this part of the world was
Speaker 1: not designed to cope with this part of the world melting.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's designed to be in the frozen areas. You
Speaker 2: can see some that thing that we mentioned a little earlier,
Speaker 2: the Jamal LNG project. You can actually see images of
Speaker 2: what some of the some of it looks like. And
Speaker 2: it is just built on essentially ice. I mean, it
Speaker 2: is just built on ice inside ice. And if that
Speaker 2: were all to melt, it would it would quickly change
Speaker 2: how that how that whole system functions, how that facility functions.
Speaker 3: It could create a large issue.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, because there's gonna be a liminal space. There's
Speaker 1: gonna be a transition period. Earth does not work on
Speaker 1: light switches, you know what I mean. What's gonna happen
Speaker 1: is that stuff will stuff will begin to melt, and eventually,
Speaker 1: when it melts to a to a high enough degree,
Speaker 1: there will be avenues to access this hidden oil, these
Speaker 1: hidden hydrocarbons. But before it reaches that point, it's it'll
Speaker 1: just be muddy and things will be not quite accessible.
Speaker 1: But all the stuff we built before will not work. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so there's going to be this worse before it gets
Speaker 1: better scenario, and that's when that's when the series of
Speaker 1: battles will start. These will be happening concurrently. The battles
Speaker 1: already started in the courtroom. That's where a lot of
Speaker 1: international battles start. Primary disagreements here, as you already point out,
Speaker 1: met concern what we think of as international waters and
Speaker 1: what we think of as sovereign waters or territory controlled
Speaker 1: by a single nation or an uncalling now eventually a
Speaker 1: single corporation. So conflicting claims the Arctic date back to
Speaker 1: at least nineteen twenty five, when Canada said that, all right,
Speaker 1: we're going to say our maritime border extends to cover
Speaker 1: everything from sixty degrees west to one hundred and forty
Speaker 1: one degrees west and then northward all the way to
Speaker 1: the North Pole and the North Pole. Remember this nineteen
Speaker 1: twenty five, So the North Pole had just been reached
Speaker 1: in nineteen oh nine and Canada was like, let's get
Speaker 1: on it. So they also claim these very channels and
Speaker 1: straits that constitute what we call the Northwest Passage are
Speaker 1: part of its internal waters, not international. You want to
Speaker 1: travel on this road you have to play with us.
Speaker 1: The US and other countries have argued that this is
Speaker 1: complete malarchy. Yeah, there's an international waterway. You have to
Speaker 1: let us go free and unencumbered, which means we can
Speaker 1: come and go as we please. This is one example.
Speaker 1: There are a ton of other examples. Russias and a
Speaker 1: lot of them because they control a lot of the coastline.
Speaker 1: Now the battle has been moving forward symbolically. In two
Speaker 1: thousand and five the Russian Arctica Expedition, which was the
Speaker 1: first manned descent to the seafloor beneath the North Pole.
Speaker 3: And this is baller, by the way.
Speaker 1: If they planted a Russian flag made of titanium on
Speaker 1: the Arctic floor at the geographical.
Speaker 3: Pole, Wow, that's what's up.
Speaker 1: I thought it was Yeah, I thought it was a
Speaker 1: power move. The US and Canada Denmark thought so too,
Speaker 1: but they didn't think it was cool. No, and the
Speaker 1: Kremlins they said, what are you doing. You can't just
Speaker 1: say this belongs to you. And the Kremlin said it
Speaker 1: was not asserting sovereignity. And this is where we found
Speaker 1: this excellent caddy quote from Russian Foreign Minister Sergi Lavarov.
Speaker 2: We're not throwing flags around. We just do what other
Speaker 2: discoverers did. The purpose of the expedition is not to
Speaker 2: skates whatever rights of Russia, but to prove that our
Speaker 2: shelf extends to the North Pole. By the way, on
Speaker 2: the Moon, it was the same. Remember when you planted
Speaker 2: that America flag on the Moon.
Speaker 3: It's just because we got here first.
Speaker 2: Come on, like, we sent a submersible down and we
Speaker 2: put a giant, awesome titanium flag down there.
Speaker 1: It's strange, but these symbols are important.
Speaker 3: They are, they really are.
Speaker 1: And that's why in Antarctica you can still get a
Speaker 1: passport stamp from Great Britain or something, or you or
Speaker 1: these countries will operate post offices. So what happens when
Speaker 1: the weather warms, It brings hotter wars. Historically, the Arctic
Speaker 1: Ocean has not been a significant military theater for the US,
Speaker 1: which means it's not a place where we put our
Speaker 1: weapons of destruction and our weapons of war. At the
Speaker 1: height of the Cold War, US and Soviet ballistic missile
Speaker 1: submarines hid below the polar ice caps. And you know
Speaker 1: played this game of cat and mouse, right.
Speaker 2: You know the it's the you can at least harken
Speaker 2: back to images of Hunter for at October.
Speaker 1: Right, right, And it's a good call. And both sides
Speaker 1: did have early warning networks, and they had armies defending them.
Speaker 1: But these early warning networks had while they had anti
Speaker 1: submarine equipment and armament, the main thing they were looking
Speaker 1: out for was a way to know as soon as
Speaker 1: possible if a missile had been launched. Because the biggest
Speaker 1: significance of the Arctic for both sides of the Cold
Speaker 1: War was this. It is it was the shortest shipping
Speaker 1: route for boats, right, if you could get rid of
Speaker 1: the ice bi de Yeah, but it's the shortest flight
Speaker 1: path for an ICBM or intercontinental ballistic missile and other
Speaker 1: nuclear missiles. So if if a missile is fired from
Speaker 1: Russia to the US, that's how it's gonna get that's
Speaker 1: the shortest way for it to get there.
Speaker 3: Or from Alaska or the Russian Federation.
Speaker 1: Or from Alaska to the Russians, yeah, or.
Speaker 2: From any submarine that's hanging out in the Arctic ocean.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 1: So in recent years, the increase in temperature across the
Speaker 1: Arctic has diminished that polar ice cap. As you said,
Speaker 1: bet the northeast passage right now in Russia's Arctic seas
Speaker 1: can can be used for two or three months of
Speaker 1: the year and even longer if you have an icebreaker
Speaker 1: like China does, like Russia does. Canada's Northwest Passage is
Speaker 1: not near as pash it's shallow, it's prone to getting
Speaker 1: clogged by ice, but it too has seen some more
Speaker 1: commercial traffic because there's less and less ice around. And
Speaker 1: now the Arctic Ocean, because of this warming, is emerging
Speaker 1: as the next place where people, well I say people,
Speaker 1: where the Russian government and the US government are going
Speaker 1: to butt heads. It is preposterous that this is not
Speaker 1: a bigger deal right now. Because Russia controls the board.
Speaker 1: That's what makes it different. Russia is way more qualified
Speaker 1: and way more competent for any kind of when in
Speaker 1: regards to any kind of conflict here in this area
Speaker 1: of the world.
Speaker 2: Well yeah, if you look at the you just think
Speaker 2: about the naval fleets of the US, and then you
Speaker 2: think about the land area of Alaska, which is the
Speaker 2: only the US controlled territory up there. If you just
Speaker 2: look at a picture of the Arctic Circle and think
Speaker 2: about that alone, then think about just the history of
Speaker 2: operating up there.
Speaker 3: And then all of the naval.
Speaker 2: You know, a lot of the Pacific fleets, the you know,
Speaker 2: the different fleets of the US has. It's just a
Speaker 2: whole different game. And Russia has been doing it for
Speaker 2: a while.
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, that's a good way to put it. According
Speaker 1: to Andrew Holland, who is CEO of the American Security Project,
Speaker 1: the Arctic is the only theater of operations where the
Speaker 1: US Navy is outclassed by a peer competitor. Russian surface
Speaker 1: warships have demonstrated the ability to carry out complex combined
Speaker 1: operations in the High North, while the American Navy maintains
Speaker 1: a policy that only submarines operate above the Barren Strait.
Speaker 2: There you go, complex combined operations.
Speaker 1: Oh Holland, and you listening, no offense? I just like
Speaker 1: that voice. So yeah. Since two thousand and eight, Russia's
Speaker 1: Arctic development has, at least according to the Pentagon assertive
Speaker 1: force posture, with constant military drilling and quote provocative air maneuvering.
Speaker 1: So Russia has four different fleets Baltic, Pacific, Black Sea,
Speaker 1: and Arctic. The Arctic Fleet or Northern Fleet, has eighty ships.
Speaker 1: Thirty five of those are submarines and others are surface
Speaker 1: ships led by a battle cruiser. But over the last
Speaker 1: decade it's been increasingly expanded, it's been improved. Starting in
Speaker 1: twenty twelve, it's regularly patrolled a two thousand mile stretch
Speaker 1: of the Northern Sea. And more importantly, Russia operates a
Speaker 1: fleet of forty ice breakers. That's forty forty more ice
Speaker 1: breakers than the rest of the world icebreaker fleet combined.
Speaker 2: Sounds familiar to the US when you just think about
Speaker 2: defense spending in that kind of thing, and yeah, exactly,
Speaker 2: But then well, we do have icebreakers.
Speaker 1: We have three. Uncle Sam has three ice breakers, and
Speaker 1: they need a lot of help in like the ice
Speaker 1: breakers themselves. So if a war breaks out, if a
Speaker 1: physical or hot war does break out over disputes in
Speaker 1: the Arctic, it will almost certainly become a global conflict.
Speaker 1: NATO will be involved, The dominoes will start to fall,
Speaker 1: as the US alone would be outclassed, right, and then
Speaker 1: we would see other countries who are aware of this,
Speaker 1: hungry for the opportunity, would also insert themselves in some way,
Speaker 1: because chaos is a chaos is fertile soil for opportunity,
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Military planners envision rivalry and
Speaker 1: perhaps conflict between NATO powers, the US and Russia. But
Speaker 1: eventually they say China will get in the game because
Speaker 1: that country is very very set in to resource acquisition
Speaker 1: and can detect minerals from miles and decades away.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they know where it is, they know it exists,
Speaker 2: and they're going to find a way to be a
Speaker 2: part of it.
Speaker 1: Right, that's the idea, right, And the same sort of
Speaker 1: stuff is happening in Antarctica. If current economic projections hold true,
Speaker 1: there are going to be some very dangerous times ahead,
Speaker 1: especially for the average person. Right. There are going to
Speaker 1: be global busts of economies, bubbles will pop, and if
Speaker 1: that happens, that's going to make different different countries increasingly
Speaker 1: desperate to obtain control and sovereignity over these things. And
Speaker 1: that means the economic disaster could accelerate this timeline. Climate
Speaker 1: change is already accelerating, sure, changing temperatures whatever you want
Speaker 1: to call them, are already accelerating it. But the economic
Speaker 1: stuff could be even more powerful on this timeline because
Speaker 1: what was that number, one hundred and twenty dollars a barrel?
Speaker 1: Is that when it becomes something like that, Okay, so
Speaker 1: what if it just spikes and one day, one day
Speaker 1: it's one hundred and ninety barrel.
Speaker 3: Then everybody's gonna be trying to get it and.
Speaker 1: The drilling starts tomorrow. Yeah, that's what happens.
Speaker 3: You know. Wow. Okay, so that's where we are right
Speaker 3: now with this. You know, one thing I.
Speaker 2: Was wondering about as we were researching this was Denmark
Speaker 2: and Greenland because if you look at a map and
Speaker 2: you see how large Greenland is and how much ice
Speaker 2: covers that piece of land, and there are resources there,
Speaker 2: a lot of resources. If that also melts, it makes
Speaker 2: me wonder if someone eventually one of these superpowers eventually
Speaker 2: invades Denmark's control at least over Greenland something like that,
Speaker 2: because you know, and we only barely touched Antarctica in
Speaker 2: this episode, because we've talked about so many times before,
Speaker 2: but as Ben said right at the end, there, it's
Speaker 2: the same thing. That's a huge continent, and if some
Speaker 2: of that ice is melting, no matter how high the
Speaker 2: water is rising, we're going to be trying to get
Speaker 2: over there and discover things and find more resources because
Speaker 2: they're there.
Speaker 1: We be not just Uncle Sam or not just humans. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we also being you and me, Oh yeah, Oh.
Speaker 2: We're going to be down there trying to get as
Speaker 2: much titanium to make more flags as we possibly can.
Speaker 1: Whether you are a president, a peasant, a prime minister,
Speaker 1: or a pioneer, one thing is for sure. Everyone is
Speaker 1: waiting for the day that the ice melts and doesn't
Speaker 1: come back in winter, which is a scary thing. The
Speaker 1: they and the stuff they don't want you to know
Speaker 1: for today's episode is multi dimensional. I mean, there are
Speaker 1: companies that don't want you to know the ongoing negotiations
Speaker 1: they're having with their own governments. There are military contractors
Speaker 1: who don't want you to know the kind of stuff
Speaker 1: they're building. And there are of course governments who don't
Speaker 1: want you to know what they're planning, especially if you
Speaker 1: work for another government. Yeah, it always reminds me of
Speaker 1: that story or that old proverb. You know, when elephants
Speaker 1: make war, only the grass suffers. The majority of humanity.
Speaker 1: Is the grass here just getting trampled, just getting trampled
Speaker 1: quite possibly, or who knows, maybe maybe our species will
Speaker 1: say what's the best way to what's the best way
Speaker 1: to normalize this and create a situation where there's not
Speaker 1: a global catastrophe and that's that's quite possible. I mean,
Speaker 1: no one really wants a third World war, to want
Speaker 1: managed conflicts and ways to assertively negotiate their way to
Speaker 1: the biggest slice of the pie, whatever the pies ingredients are.
Speaker 1: And sometimes you fight to see what happens.
Speaker 2: And increasingly hydrocarbons in that pie are not as lucrative
Speaker 2: or interesting.
Speaker 1: Yeah at present, you know, in the moment, Yeah, in
Speaker 1: the moment. And that goes into whether or not technology
Speaker 1: is being suppressed, and that goes into whether or not
Speaker 1: we're getting real numbers about the petrol industry in general.
Speaker 1: But those are stories for another day. If we wanted
Speaker 1: to end on a less dystopian scary note, we can't
Speaker 1: tell you that you can travel as a private citizen
Speaker 1: to Antarctica. From an environmental perspective, it's a fascinating place
Speaker 1: to visit, or so we hear. You do get price
Speaker 1: breaks if you travel in a group. Would highly recommend
Speaker 1: that because it's quite expensive and it's something you would
Speaker 1: have to save up for, but.
Speaker 3: Hey, it's a that's a cool goal if you can achieve.
Speaker 1: It once in a lifetime experience. Yeah, if you don't
Speaker 1: feel like saving up the money, but you feel like
Speaker 1: spending a lot of time there. It is remarkably I
Speaker 1: don't want to say it's too easy, but it's remarkably
Speaker 1: less difficult than I thought. To get hired as a
Speaker 1: you know, like a cook or a support staff in
Speaker 1: a research station.
Speaker 2: Do it and then write to us like every day,
Speaker 2: make make a diary.
Speaker 1: Tell us who you think the hidden alien is?
Speaker 2: Oh, or do you want to start a podcast? Go
Speaker 2: on that journey and then we'll just start a new
Speaker 2: podcast with you.
Speaker 1: Speaking people going on that journey. One last thing forty
Speaker 1: close today's episode, Flat earthers are launching a trip to Antarctica. Matt,
Speaker 1: Did you see that.
Speaker 2: Yes, they are going to figure out once and for
Speaker 2: all whether or not this Earth is flat, and whether
Speaker 2: or not you can reach the end of the Earth.
Speaker 2: And they're going to go down there to find you know,
Speaker 2: essentially the Game of Thrones wall basically, but if on
Speaker 2: the other side of the wall there was nothing just
Speaker 2: space essentially, right, It's the ice wall supposed to to
Speaker 2: be several thousand feet thick, and it goes one hundred
Speaker 2: and sixty four feet high perhaps, and it's this thing
Speaker 2: that rings the entire planet and there's a group of
Speaker 2: people who are going to be there soon. They're taking
Speaker 2: off soon, allegedly, right.
Speaker 1: The supposed ice wall is a couple thousand feet thick,
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty four feet high and surrounds the planet.
Speaker 1: This is planned for next year, for twenty twenty. It's
Speaker 1: organized by the Flat Earth International Conference or fei C.
Speaker 2: And just so you know, according to this article from
Speaker 2: the Sun, which is oh excuse me, yes, he's an
Speaker 2: original article posted by the Sun that was in the
Speaker 2: New York Post. YouTube star logan Paul, the guy that
Speaker 2: everybody just loves. He says he wants to find the
Speaker 2: facts and also join them.
Speaker 1: So yeha yehaw.
Speaker 2: Indeed, maybe our boy is going to be there. Who's
Speaker 2: our boy, the rapper that we talked about.
Speaker 3: What's his name? Bob?
Speaker 4: Oh?
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, maybe he'll be there as well. Yes, uh,
Speaker 1: And maybe you will be there if you're listening. If so,
Speaker 1: we'd love to hear about your adventures. We hope that
Speaker 1: you enjoyed this episode, and if you live in the
Speaker 1: northern climes, we'd love to hear more about your experiences.
Speaker 1: Do you feel like this is alarmist? How How quick
Speaker 1: do you feel the ice is or is not melting?
Speaker 1: And how do you see things changing in a world
Speaker 1: without northern ice? Let us know you, and that's our
Speaker 1: classic episode for this evening. We can't wait to hear
Speaker 1: your thoughts. We try to be easy to find online.
Speaker 1: Find us in the handle conspiracy Stuff, where we exist
Speaker 1: on Facebook X and YouTube, on Instagram and TikTok. We're
Speaker 1: conspiracy Stuff.
Speaker 2: Show call our number. It's one eight three three std WYTK.
Speaker 1: Leave a voicemail and if you have more to say,
Speaker 1: we can't wait to hear from you at our good
Speaker 1: old fashioned email address where we are conspiracy at iHeartRadio
Speaker 1: dot com.
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