1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:11,040 Speaker 2: I have been a skeptic of this entire project, not 3 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 2: because of ideology, but because of economic history. 4 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 3: I think the most dangerous long term trend that Trump 5 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 3: has created is a sense among America's closest allies that, 6 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 3: after eight decades of relying on the United States as 7 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:32,520 Speaker 3: the pivot of geopolitical strategy and geoeconomic security, they're asking themselves, 8 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 3: do we diversify a little bit? Do we buy a 9 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 3: little insurance? 10 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 4: Welcome to Trumpnomics, the podcast that looks at the economic 11 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,839 Speaker 4: world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped the global 12 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 4: economy and what on earth is going to happen next. 13 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 4: And this week I'm in California for the annual Milken 14 00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 4: Institute Global Conference, where Wall Street comes to Beverly Hills. 15 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 4: It's one of the greatest concentrations of investment capital on 16 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 4: the planet, as they say, with tickets starting at twenty 17 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 4: five thousand dollars ahead, and it attracts thousands of attendees 18 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 4: wanting to hear from titans in the world of business 19 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 4: and politics publicly and behind the seats. US Treasury sectary 20 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 4: Scott Bessen kicked off the proceedings on day one, and 21 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 4: that was followed by a long list of finance and 22 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 4: investment luminaries and chief executives. Now it's the twenty eighth 23 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 4: year of this conference, and the boast was that the 24 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,639 Speaker 4: turnout and the money represented in the room was higher 25 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,319 Speaker 4: than ever. But of course it was happening only a 26 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 4: few months after the fires that have left large chunks 27 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 4: of the city still looking like a post nuclear wasteland. 28 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 4: That was one weird thing about this year. The other 29 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 4: was well, that it felt remarkably normal. I mean, the 30 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 4: rest of the world might be freaking out about the 31 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 4: economic impact of Donald Trump's trade wars, America's reputation as 32 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 4: a safe haven for global capital, or you know, the 33 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 4: end of the rule based global order. But for the 34 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 4: big money folks gathered here, I have to say, it 35 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 4: just seemed like a period of heightened uncertainty. So I 36 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,119 Speaker 4: was looking for a reality check when I sat down 37 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 4: on the first day with the historian and commentator Neil 38 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 4: Ferguson and CNN's for Reid Zakaria, who's the author most 39 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 4: recently of the Age of Revolutions. We've got a lightly 40 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 4: edited version of that conversation for you here. I started 41 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 4: by asking them to put the past hundred days, this 42 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:31,359 Speaker 4: moment in world history in some kind of perspective. What 43 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 4: patterns do they recognize from previous eeries and what strikes 44 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:36,119 Speaker 4: them as genuinely new. 45 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 2: Well, if you think back to the campaign last year, 46 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 2: President Trump cited a previous president in one of the 47 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 2: interviews he did. I think it was a Bloomberg interview, 48 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 2: and he said William McKinley was his inspiration tariff man. 49 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 2: And that was something that most people ignored, but I 50 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 2: found it very interesting, not least because McKinley was both 51 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 2: a tariff man and something of an imperial president who, 52 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 2: as a result of the Spanish American War in the 53 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 2: late eighty nineties. 54 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 5: Acquired Puerto Rico, Guam, et cetera. 55 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 2: So that was a clue as to the kind of 56 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 2: president that Donald Trump wanted us to expect. And unlike 57 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 2: most political figures, Donald Trump has said what he was 58 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 2: going to do and done it. The second historic analogy, 59 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 2: and for read and I we're talking about this on 60 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:33,239 Speaker 2: his show, that's relevant here is the first hundred days 61 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 2: of Franklin Delana Roosevelt's presidency. I don't think we have 62 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 2: seen such an active one hundred day period in American 63 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 2: politics since nineteen thirty three. You have to go back 64 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 2: to that extraordinary time to see a comparable level of 65 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 2: presidential activity. 66 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 5: And I wrote. 67 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 2: A piece for Barry Weiss's Free Press saying, you kind 68 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 2: of think of this as like Roosevelt in reverse, because 69 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: Roosevelt came in after a depression with a mandate to 70 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 2: expand the federal government, and Trump has come in after 71 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 2: a boom with a mandate to shrink the federal government. 72 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 2: I'll throw in one more way of thinking about this. 73 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 2: I think behind all the bravado, Canada is going to 74 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 2: be the fifty first state Greenland, We're going to annex 75 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 2: the Panama Canal. All that trolling that drives liberals and 76 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:24,480 Speaker 2: the professors insane. I don't really think that Trump is 77 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,479 Speaker 2: acting from a sense of strength. I don't think he is. 78 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 2: In fact, William McKinley, I think a strong motivation in 79 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 2: Trump's mind is. 80 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 5: That the United States is kind of weaker. 81 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 2: Than it looks, and it can't do all the things 82 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,719 Speaker 2: that it was able to do. Say, in the nineteen eighties, 83 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 2: I got into a fight with Vice President Vance about 84 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,039 Speaker 2: this and my other analogy is that I think there's 85 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 2: something quite Nixonian about the second term, the shocks to allies, 86 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 2: the talk of some kind of devaluation, plus tariffs. It's 87 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 2: all out of the Nixon nineteen seventy one playbook, even 88 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 2: the Tacer reverse Nixon, which you hear from some of 89 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 2: his advisors. We're going to somehow peal Putin away from 90 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 2: season pain and somehow find some space between China and Russia. 91 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 2: That is at least an appeal to Nixon as a precedent. 92 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 2: And you have to ask yourself, why has no president 93 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 2: since Nixon regarded Nixon as a role model. 94 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 5: I'll just leave you to posit that's definite. 95 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 2: But it is an unusual thing to want to rerun 96 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 2: some of these Nixonian gambits, and I do think it 97 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 2: has some meaningful downside risk. 98 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 4: Although we are seeing in real time undoing of some 99 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 4: of the things that were done directly in response to 100 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 4: the Nixon experience. But we won't get we won't get 101 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 4: into a left well that's right for ed place this moment. 102 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 3: For us, nothing is new under the sun. But what 103 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 3: is unusual and hasn't happened for a long time is 104 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 3: one the rise of cultural politics. If you look back 105 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 3: over the twentieth century, most politics was explained by a 106 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 3: left right divide. On economics, the left wanted to tax 107 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 3: more and the right wanted to tack less. Similarly, the 108 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 3: divide on spending. It was the role of the state. 109 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 3: We're in a new era where culture is defining the 110 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 3: back life. If you try to predict how people vote 111 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,720 Speaker 3: based on their income, you find it very hard to do. 112 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 3: Most of you are rich, and my guess is many 113 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 3: of you voted left of center. The majority of people 114 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 3: who are non college educated, working class now vote right 115 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 3: of center. Why because we are in an age of 116 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 3: great uncertainty and change and when that happens, and I 117 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 3: owe Tony Blair this insight. When people feel deeply anxious, 118 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 3: they tend to move right culturally, not left economically. They 119 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 3: don't say I need one more government program. They say, 120 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 3: get those damn foreigners out of my country. And you 121 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 3: can see this in almost every country in the Western world. 122 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 3: The left is flailing. Think of France, think of Germany, 123 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 3: think of Sweden, think of Italy, and of course think 124 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 3: of the United States. Because the left finds it difficult 125 00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 3: to address that cultural anxiety, people have. It is more 126 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:04,359 Speaker 3: easily addressed by a right wing populist movement, which is 127 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 3: what has taken over right of center parties everywhere. 128 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 5: Point two. 129 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 3: What has changed is the United States has rarely had 130 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 3: a culture of personality in its political system. But we 131 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 3: now have a situation where the Republican Party is not 132 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 3: really a party anymore. It has become a culture of personality. 133 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 3: In the last Republican convention, no former nominee for the party, 134 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 3: for the presidency, for the vice presidency, no former president 135 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 3: or vice president, including Trump's own Vice president Mike Pence, 136 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 3: was even invited to the convention, and yet five members 137 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 3: of the Trump family had prime time speaking slots. That 138 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 3: is not a normal political party, but certainly by Western standards. 139 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 5: And finally, I would say, I. 140 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 3: Mean, honestly, what is unprecedented is the fairly systematic level 141 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 3: of corruption taking place at the very highest level in 142 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 3: the United States. I don't think I think we have 143 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 3: seen something like that for a very very long time. 144 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 2: Can I jump in and say that if you go 145 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 2: back far enough and you know this for ee, you 146 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 2: do find exactly these things. 147 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 5: I mean, this is gilded Age. 148 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 3: I began by saying nothing is new under the sull. 149 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 2: I just want to illustrate at the point because maybe 150 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 2: not everybody's studied this. 151 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 4: Morning talked about the Golden Age. 152 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: It's a very old and gilded sound of the region. 153 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 1: Regency England had lots of corruption, but he you know, 154 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 1: late nineteenth century United States, the time of McKinley was 155 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: famously dropped. It was a time when Tammany Hall was 156 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: one of the political machines that ran the system. Foreign 157 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:40,439 Speaker 1: visitors were shocked by the scurrilous quality of American politics, 158 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 1: and the populaces of the late nineteenth century had very 159 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 1: Trumpian themes. 160 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 2: You know, I have this long standing argument with people 161 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 2: like Tim Snyder and Applebam about whether there's some kinshit 162 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 2: between Trumpism and fascism in inter war Europe. 163 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 5: And my point to them has always been, you do 164 00:08:57,760 --> 00:08:58,319 Speaker 5: not need. 165 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 2: To look so far afield, because the populace in the 166 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 2: late nineteenth century were in favor of the same kind 167 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 2: of things that Donald Trump's been talking about since even 168 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:11,080 Speaker 2: before twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, That is to say, restriction 169 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 2: of immigration tariffs a week dollar. I mean, even that's 170 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 2: part of the populist. 171 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:19,719 Speaker 3: But what was different about William Jennings Bryan, who was 172 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 3: the great populist nominated three times by the Democratic Party. 173 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 3: It was not anti democratic in quite the same way 174 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 3: the extraordinary expansion of governmental authority. You know, all these 175 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 3: tariffs are taking place in a situation that, frankly is illegal. 176 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 3: The Constitution makes clear that Congress has the role of 177 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:42,679 Speaker 3: tariff's setting. It has delegated in very specific circumstances to 178 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 3: the presidency. The president claims that because there is a 179 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 3: national security emergency, he has this power. It's a little 180 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 3: odd that you would have a national security emergency against 181 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 3: every country in the world simultaneously, including one that is 182 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:00,080 Speaker 3: only inhabited by penguins. 183 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, right, they But Congress has over the years delegated 184 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 4: more and more of that authority, so I think they 185 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 4: could probably take it back, but they haven't chosen to 186 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,239 Speaker 4: take it back. We've got onto the sort of cultural 187 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 4: and some of the political instincts of this administration. I 188 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 4: suspect we'll get back to it, and many people here 189 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,079 Speaker 4: would be kind of mesmerized by those aspects of the administration. 190 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 4: But they have to live day to day, and we 191 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 4: at Bloomberg a living day to day with the economic 192 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 4: consequences trying to think about whether this administration can actually 193 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 4: do the big things that it's set out to do 194 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 4: economically in the world. 195 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 5: So maybe a sort of gut. 196 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 4: Check on that. I mean, the two very highly related 197 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 4: targets decouple from China and reindustrialize the US feasible and 198 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 4: if not feasible, what's going to happen in the attempt. 199 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 4: It's certainly possible to decouple two large economies. Of Britain 200 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:55,439 Speaker 4: and Germany decoupled their economies, but that was the outbreak 201 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 4: of World War One in nineteen fourteen. To kill what 202 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 4: I called China America back in two thousand and seven, 203 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 4: when the Chinese and American economies had almost fused is 204 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 4: extremely difficult. The President tried to do it in his 205 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 4: first term, and all that happened was that Chinese goods 206 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 4: were shifted via third countries and continue to flow to 207 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 4: the United States. What he did since being inaugurated this 208 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 4: second time has been to impose. 209 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 2: An embargo on US China trade. It's an extraordinary thing 210 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 2: that went even further than the worst case scenario that 211 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 2: the Chinese had been preparing for. The tariff rates on 212 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 2: imports from China are now so high that nobody's quite 213 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,680 Speaker 2: sure what the rate is, but it amounts to prohibition. 214 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 5: Now you can take the. 215 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 2: View that this is a rare case where a country 216 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 2: imposes sanctions on itself, maybe because the habit of imposing 217 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,240 Speaker 2: sanctions has become so ingrained with the American government, we 218 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 2: finally had to sanction ourselves. But if you are running, 219 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 2: let's just say, a small sized toy company, this is 220 00:11:56,679 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 2: a catastrophic blow. You have already ordered the Christmas goods 221 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 2: from China, and you cannot afford for those goods to 222 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 2: arrive unless this trade war is called off. So decoupling 223 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 2: is in process, but its costs to the American economy 224 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 2: have yet to be felt by the majority of people. 225 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 2: Does this lead to the reindustrialization of the United States 226 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 2: if the President follows through with it. I'm skeptical because 227 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 2: there are lots of reasons why all mature economies go 228 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 2: through a period in where they industrialize, where manufacturing becomes 229 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 2: a larger share of employment and a larger share of 230 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 2: gross domestic product, and then after a certain per capita GDP, 231 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 2: they shift away from manufacturing and they go into services. 232 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 5: There's no exception to this rule. 233 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 2: It's through of all the major economies, and the United 234 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 2: States has gone down that curve. Turning the clock of 235 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:57,320 Speaker 2: history back is hard, and that's the project. The central 236 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 2: project of Trumpism is We're going to turn the clock 237 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 2: of history back and have the kind of manufacturing employment 238 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 2: that we had in let's say the nineteen fifties. Now 239 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:11,319 Speaker 2: you'd have to reform permitting, you would have to make 240 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 2: American labor significantly cheaper, and you'd have to live with 241 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 2: more expensive and inferior products as a consequence. I do 242 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 2: not believe that any president can achieve those things in 243 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 2: four years, and a president who loses one or both 244 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 2: chambers of Congress that the midterms isn't going to get 245 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,080 Speaker 2: to first base. So I have been a skeptic of 246 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 2: this entire project, not because of ideology, but because of 247 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 2: economic history. I went to see the Minecraft movie. Who 248 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 2: has seen the Minecraft movie in this audience? Okay, so 249 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 2: you have a seven year old kid. I'm not saying 250 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:49,839 Speaker 2: you should go and see Jack Black in the Minecraft movie. 251 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:52,599 Speaker 2: But as I was watching it and thinking about Minecraft, 252 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 2: I realized the project is kind of Minecraft because in Minecraft, 253 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 2: it's really easy to mine and manufacture and build staff 254 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,440 Speaker 2: all you do is you're just gonna go bam and 255 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 2: magically you've made something. And unfortunately there's a sort of 256 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 2: Minecraft element to this strategy, and that's not the way 257 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 2: the world works, as anybody knows who has tried to 258 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 2: build a manufacturing entity in the United States in the 259 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 2: last ten years. 260 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 3: I agree with everything Neil said, but let me add 261 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 3: to it by pointing out the entire project is unnecessary. 262 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 3: The United States in the last thirty years, contrary to 263 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 3: what you hear, has not hollowed itself out turned itself 264 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 3: into this basket case economy that is in severe need 265 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 3: of some kind of revolution. The real story of the 266 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 3: last thirty years is the United States has leapt ahead 267 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 3: of every other advanced industrial country. 268 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 5: Let me give you a few numbers. 269 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 3: In two thousand and eight, the Eurozone economy and the 270 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 3: US economy with the same size. The US economy is 271 00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 3: today twice the size of the Eurozone economies, and two 272 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 3: thousand German wages in US wages were roughly the same. Today, 273 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 3: US wages are fifty percent higher than German wages. If 274 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 3: Great Britain were to join the United States, Bars Johnson 275 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 3: once joked as the fifty first state. Little did he 276 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 3: know the President from had another country in mind for 277 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 3: that honor. But let us say they joined as the 278 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 3: fifty first state. On a per capitaal GDP basis, Great 279 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 3: Britain would be the poorest state in the Union, poorer 280 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 3: than Alabama, poorer than Mississippi. Why is this because unlike 281 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 3: the other advanced industrial countries, what the United States was 282 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 3: able to do was fully embrace the services economy, digital finance, software. 283 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 5: We export a trillion. 284 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 3: Dollars worth of services to the world every year. That 285 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 3: someone doesn't show up in Donald Trump's theory of economics, 286 00:15:55,640 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 3: even though services employ eighty percent of Americans manufacturing employees 287 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 3: eight So the project that Nielss talking about also is 288 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 3: essentially a project to tax the eighty percent who work 289 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 3: in services, just subsidized the dwindling eight percent who were 290 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 3: in manufacturing, almost out of a kind of esthetic desire 291 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 3: to have a country where we build something. 292 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 2: That's the sense of which is like populism, because that 293 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 2: was about agricult Populous were farmers going when it was 294 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 2: clear that agriculture was going to decline as an employment sector. 295 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 2: But Stephanie Canda at one point, because I don't want 296 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 2: to sound entirely negative. I listened to Secretary Vescent this morning, 297 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 2: and there was much that he. 298 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 5: Said that I liked. I think it's true that the. 299 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 2: United States economy is anti fragile, as Fred says, it 300 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 2: has massively I performed the competition, particularly in the periods 301 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 2: since the financial crisis. 302 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 5: Though. I think it implies that. 303 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 2: The trade war the tariffs are a kind of shock 304 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 2: that the US is somehow going to be able to 305 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 2: power through, and maybe it is. I think your Bloomberg 306 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 2: readers will be interested to see if there really is 307 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 2: going to be a Marilago accord. If the analogy with 308 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 2: nineteen eighty five works, then you not only get tariffs, 309 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 2: but more importantly, you get a weaker dollar and you 310 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 2: get lower interest rates. If they are able to do that, 311 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 2: then it seems to me that the US may once 312 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 2: again surprise to the upside, and the Cassandras are going 313 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 2: to be left looking as they so often have, very wrong. 314 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 2: The critical issue here for everybody who's interested in markets 315 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:40,199 Speaker 2: is as the dollar goes down, what the rates do. 316 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 2: Because the thing that has been most scary about the 317 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,479 Speaker 2: last month has been that moment between Liberation Day and 318 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 2: April ninth, when the dollar did go down, but yields 319 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 2: went up, and that in a way that is very 320 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 2: very rare in modern financial history. And there you run 321 00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 2: the risk of what i'll call the Nixon moment, because 322 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:04,920 Speaker 2: Nixon had a weak currency strategy, he had a tariff strategy. 323 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,199 Speaker 2: But what happened between seventy one and seventy four was 324 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 2: that the dollar was weak, but rates went up because 325 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 2: inflation went up, and you ended up with the stock 326 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 2: market declining from Nixon's re election to his resignation by 327 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:23,719 Speaker 2: forty six percent. So there's risk embedded in this whole strategy. 328 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 5: But it could work. 329 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 2: And we mustn't underestimate the probability that once again Donald 330 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,159 Speaker 2: Trump surprises to the upside, because he does seem to 331 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 2: have a strange luck as well as a powerful intuition 332 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 2: about the people that he's up against. 333 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,640 Speaker 4: That some of this may come down to a sort 334 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 4: of fundamental tension which I think many people here and 335 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 4: you guys have certainly identified in the president's approach, which 336 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 4: is an end to forever wars, you know, channeling the 337 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 4: sort of previous past history those populists who were isolationists 338 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:57,119 Speaker 4: as well. We don't want entanglements abroad, but China is 339 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,679 Speaker 4: the real enemy, and we are going to wage at 340 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 4: least an economic war against China. Those two things certainly 341 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 4: come into tension over Taiwan in other areas. You and 342 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 4: I spoke about this on my podcast last year. Neil, 343 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 4: and you thought that the hawkish kind of bipartisan consensus 344 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,400 Speaker 4: in the US today and certainly in Congress would prevail 345 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 4: over Trump's transactionalism. Do you still think that or do 346 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 4: you think we'll have an accommodation with China that involves 347 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 4: I don't know a few Trump towers in Taiwan. 348 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 2: It is so hard to know at this point because 349 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 2: the administration has roughly three different strategies going on at 350 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 2: the same time. There are those that they are much 351 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:43,159 Speaker 2: weakened now since Mike Watz's exit, who really wanted to 352 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 2: take on the axis of authoritarians in every different theater 353 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 2: from Eastern Europe to the Middle East to the Far East. 354 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 2: Then there are the China Forest people like Bridge Colby, 355 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,960 Speaker 2: who want to focus on the Taiwan issue and not 356 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,920 Speaker 2: worry too much about Ukraine or even Israel. And then 357 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 2: there are the Hemisphere folks around Vice President Vance. You 358 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,920 Speaker 2: just want to focus on the Americas, and they really 359 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 2: don't even care about Taiwan. 360 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 5: It's not clear who who comes out ahead. I will, 361 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 5: for the sake of brevity put it this way. 362 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 2: At some point on this president's watch, I believe there 363 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 2: will be a Taiwan crisis. I think season Ping has 364 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,880 Speaker 2: that option. It is risky for him, but he has 365 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 2: to exercise it when Trump is president, because Trump does 366 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 2: not look like a president who's willing to go to war, 367 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 2: actual war, not trade war, over Taiwan. So if and 368 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 2: she I want to pose that question either next year 369 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 2: or in twenty twenty seven, not with an invasion, not 370 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 2: with a blockade. I just want to send my Coastguard 371 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,679 Speaker 2: vessels and claim that everything going into Taiwan has to 372 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 2: clear Chinese customs, and present Trump with a choice, do 373 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,879 Speaker 2: you want the biggest naval battle since Midway? Do you 374 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 2: actually want to have a war over Taiwan? Or do 375 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 2: you want to fold and let the Chinese have not 376 00:20:56,720 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 2: only Taiwan but TSMC and therefore the key to the 377 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 2: semiconductor industry in the world. That's a very nasty dilemma, 378 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 2: and I think that Trump may well confront it before 379 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 2: he leaves office. 380 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:10,360 Speaker 4: Sie, what's the stake. 381 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 3: I think the central attention is exactly the one you described, 382 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 3: which is, you can have a China strategy, the kind 383 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 3: that Trump is talking about, but in order to have that, 384 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,879 Speaker 3: you need to unify the rest of the world with 385 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:26,160 Speaker 3: you and against China, where it's very hard to unify 386 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 3: the rest of the world when you've slapped tariffs on them, 387 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 3: and when you've disproportionately slapped tariffs on your closest allies. 388 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,119 Speaker 3: If you look at the reciprocal tariffs, it was better 389 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 3: to be a foe of the United States than a friend. 390 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 3: Russia was exempt entirely from the tariffs. Some of the 391 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 3: worst tariffs were on Canada, there on Germany. So part 392 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,919 Speaker 3: of the problem here is that Trump has broken the 393 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 3: trust that America's closest allies had with him. And if 394 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 3: you look at that moment that Nil was talking about, 395 00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:01,040 Speaker 3: that scary moment where all American assets started to decline, 396 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 3: the dollar, the bond, and stocks, it was almost certainly 397 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 3: because America's friends were selling treasury bills, the Canadians, the Japanese, 398 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 3: maybe others. And so I think the most dangerous long 399 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 3: term trend that Trump has created is a sense among 400 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 3: America's closest allies that after eight decades of relying on 401 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 3: the United States as the pivot of geopolitical strategy and 402 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:32,440 Speaker 3: geoeconomic security, they're asking themselves, do we diversify a little bit? 403 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,119 Speaker 3: Do we buy a little insurance? And they just have 404 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:37,880 Speaker 3: to do it on the margin, because we are running 405 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:42,720 Speaker 3: the largest deficits essentially in our history. We need enormous 406 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 3: amount of confidence for people to buy that debt every 407 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,159 Speaker 3: few months. That is what Trump has jeopardized. 408 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 4: And obviously there's been a lot of talk about the 409 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 4: sell America trade, as Neil mentioned, was pretty popular at 410 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,919 Speaker 4: various times over the last month or so, and it 411 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 4: feels like a structural change in the attitude to American assets, 412 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 4: maybe even to reset, as Scott Lesant said this morning. 413 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 4: But one there's a question that sell America, but then 414 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 4: buy what? 415 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,479 Speaker 6: And you've just mentioned the right, So then there's always 416 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,919 Speaker 6: been this problem into the dollar's role as the reserve 417 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 6: currency of the world is probably still pretty strong. Who 418 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 6: knows if the Euro is going to exist, and it's 419 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:24,199 Speaker 6: a slow growth area. Japan is in demographic you know, 420 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 6: death trap. China won't open its currency to the world. 421 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:31,160 Speaker 6: So Larry Summer's famous line about the dollar still holds. 422 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,439 Speaker 3: As long as Europe is a museum, Japan is a 423 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 3: retirement home, and China is a prison, the dollar will 424 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:39,960 Speaker 3: remain the reserve currency of the world. 425 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,879 Speaker 2: And bitcoin is an experiment. Just to remember that additional 426 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 2: line that Larry had as long as bitcoin is an experiment, 427 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 2: but it's less of an experiment than it was when 428 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,679 Speaker 2: he said that back in twenty nineteen, we're almost out 429 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 2: of time. 430 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 5: But can I just say the paradox. 431 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,639 Speaker 2: Of all of this is that we we cudgel our 432 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,679 Speaker 2: brains trying to understand what Trump's strategy is. Is it 433 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 2: to dimensional chess? Three dimensional chess? Is there's some master plan. 434 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 2: The more we spend our time talking about that, the 435 00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 2: less we're talking about AI, the less we're talking about 436 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 2: quantum computing, the less we're talking about the ways in 437 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,919 Speaker 2: which the United States is still far ahead of the competition. 438 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 2: I mean, you want to sell the US and buy 439 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 2: Europe when all the innovation, by far more innovation, is 440 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 2: happening here. So let's not be so distracted by politics 441 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,639 Speaker 2: that we forget what was long ago said by Carlvin Coolidge, 442 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 2: the business of America is business, not political. 443 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,440 Speaker 3: They give you one statistic to close, one hundred percent agre. 444 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 5: He always has the last word. 445 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 3: Have you noticed the United States is four percent of 446 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 3: the world's population, It's about twenty seven percent of global GDP. 447 00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:43,879 Speaker 3: It is currently seventy percent of the stock market capitalization 448 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,119 Speaker 3: of the world. You need a lot of confidence to 449 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 3: maintain that. All I'm saying is you could go down 450 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 3: to sixty percent, we'd still be dominating the world. But 451 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 3: that's a twenty percent correction in the markets. 452 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:01,400 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to Trumponomics from Bloomberg by me Sephanie Flanders. 453 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:05,680 Speaker 4: I was joined by Neil Ferguson and Farreed Zakaria. Trumponomics 454 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,960 Speaker 4: is produced by Samasadi and Moses and Dam with help 455 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:13,120 Speaker 4: from Chris Martlu, tala Ahmadi, Ammy Keene and barricatte Ugado. 456 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 4: Sound designed by Blake Maples and Brendan Francis Newnham is 457 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 4: our executive producer and special thanks also to the entire 458 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,119 Speaker 4: team at the Milcon conference. Please do rate this show 459 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 4: wherever you listen to podcasts so other people can enjoy it.