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Speaker 1: From the red carpet arrivals to glamorous after parties. It's

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Speaker 1: the most magical night of the year.

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Speaker 2: And today The Action Network honors Hollywood the best way

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Speaker 2: we know how, by helping you profit up the monumental

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Speaker 2: creative achievements of others.

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Speaker 3: And what's more Hollywood than that.

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Speaker 4: Let's gamble on the Academy Awards.

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Speaker 5: Nineteen seventeen or parasite. Who is going to take home

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Speaker 5: Best Picture at the twenty twenty Academy Awards And who

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Speaker 5: should you be betting on in every category? This is

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Speaker 5: the Action Network Podcast, and we are going to break

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Speaker 5: it all down on our special twenty twenty Oscars Awards preview.

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Speaker 1: Let's get right into it.

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Speaker 5: I am your host, Chris raybona senior editor at the

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Speaker 5: Action Network, and I'm going to be joined today by

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Speaker 5: Carolyn Smith, executive assistant at the Action Network and an actor,

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Speaker 5: Katie rich Creek editor at the Action Network, and Colin Wilson,

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Speaker 5: a senior writer. All of us probably way too deep

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Speaker 5: into oscar betting degeneracy, and I want to give an

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Speaker 5: obligatory spoiler alert warning if you haven't seen any of

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Speaker 5: these films and you plan to check them out. Keep

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Speaker 5: in mind that we do talk about some of the

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Speaker 5: things that go on some of the endings in some

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Speaker 5: of these films, so just wanted you guys to be

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Speaker 5: warned about that one. Let's kick it right off. We're

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Speaker 5: going to go through all the categories. Best Picture, of course,

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Speaker 5: will be how we kind of close it out, but

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Speaker 5: we'll be kind of referring back as we go through

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Speaker 5: all these categories.

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Speaker 1: So let's get right into it.

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Speaker 5: We're going to talk about the two Screenplay awards because

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Speaker 5: those are extremely important in deciding the Best Picture race,

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Speaker 5: as is Best Director, and all of the nominees are

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Speaker 5: pretty much in one of these categories, So let's get

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Speaker 5: right into it.

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Speaker 1: With Best Original Screenplay.

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Speaker 5: We have Parasite leading the way at a minus one

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Speaker 5: ninety seven favorite. We have Once apon a Time in

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Speaker 5: Hollywood at plus one thirty, Marriage Story at plus eight hundred,

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Speaker 5: nineteen seventeen at plus two thousand, Knives out plus three thousand,

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Speaker 5: and I am going to kick it to you first, Katie,

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Speaker 5: where are you going for Best Original Screenplay?

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Speaker 6: So my pick here was actually a Parasite plus three

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Speaker 6: fifty last month before the odds moved and they became

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Speaker 6: effectively the runaway favorite. Based on how the Academy has

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Speaker 6: split major categories in the past, I think they're going

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Speaker 6: to find a way to divvy up Best Original Screenplay,

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Speaker 6: Best Director, and Best Picture between nineteen seventeen, Once One

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Speaker 6: a Time and Parasite, and I think Original Screenplay is

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Speaker 6: an easier hurdle for them to overcome with Parasite. To me,

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Speaker 6: there are tons of parallels between Parasite and get Out,

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Speaker 6: which won this award back in twenty seventeen. That was

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Speaker 6: Jordan Peele's movie. They have very similar themes that are

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Speaker 6: very similar in terms of their story development, which makes

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Speaker 6: me think that the Academy will sort of treat them

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Speaker 6: in the same way. Like I mentioned, I bet this

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Speaker 6: at plus three fifty before the price went up, but

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Speaker 6: I personally bet it all the way down to even

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Speaker 6: Colin Ain thought there, yeah, let me jump in.

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Speaker 3: I'm Katie here, she's talking. You know. The get Out

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Speaker 3: and Parasite are kind of the same feel of a movie.

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Speaker 3: And that's true because there's like no blood in the movie,

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Speaker 3: and then at the very end, like bam, everybody's dying

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Speaker 3: and getting slashed up. But I mean, anytime you've got

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Speaker 3: somebody doing a hammer or throw on somebody else's lawn.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's like the greatest movie ever as far

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Speaker 3: as betting on this. Films that are nominated at the

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Speaker 3: Writer's Guild of America Awards but don't win anything, they

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Speaker 3: have a really tough oscar night. And so with the

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Speaker 3: Writer's Guild, which just happened this past weekend, And the

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Speaker 3: reason why we're starting to see steam on Parasite is

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Speaker 3: that the screenplay nominees were nineteen seventeen book Smart Knives

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Speaker 3: Out Marriage Story of Parasite. So all we really care

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Speaker 3: about is nineteen seventeen in Parasite, and Parasite won at

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Speaker 3: the Writer's Guild. So that's the reason for the steam

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Speaker 3: where this has gone from four to one up to

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Speaker 3: minus one sixty. So if you can find any you

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Speaker 3: know odds that get this at plus money, you go

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Speaker 3: ahead and buy it because Parasite is probably going to

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Speaker 3: be the winner here according to trends and what the

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Speaker 3: Writer's Guilt does really bad sign for nineteen seventeen for

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Speaker 3: the rest of the night when nominees don't actually win

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Speaker 3: at the Writer's Guild.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm also predicting Parasite for this one. Tarantino did

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Speaker 7: win the Golden Globes, but Parasite will be recognized here,

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Speaker 7: not just because of the recognition of the Writer's Guild,

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Speaker 7: but also I personally consider it to be more compelling

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Speaker 7: and interesting story. I think that if nineteen seventeen have

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Speaker 7: had a little bit more dialogue, it maybe would have

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Speaker 7: been a contender.

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Speaker 8: But for me, Parasite all the way.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely. You know, I think once upon a Time and

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Speaker 5: how we would kind of start it out here as

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Speaker 5: the favorite, and then you know, Parasite, it was a

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Speaker 5: movie that kind of picked up Steve And remember these

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Speaker 5: Oscars are happening February ninth, That is extremely early in

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Speaker 5: terms of Oscar season.

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Speaker 1: Any lot of these voters they don't.

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Speaker 5: Get to see, you know, they watch a lot of

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Speaker 5: these films as you know, the season approaches and as

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Speaker 5: their time to vote approach. It so a Parasite, you know,

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Speaker 5: a lot of these films came up toward the end

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Speaker 5: of the year. Parasite picked up a lot of steam.

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Speaker 5: I think as everyone you know started to see it.

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Speaker 5: You know, once upon a time in hobby would have

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Speaker 5: without I think a little bit earlier it got the Globe.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I agree with you, Caroline, I would probably

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Speaker 5: bet Parasite down to minus two hundreds.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that this is this is one that's

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Speaker 1: going to lose.

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Speaker 5: Just a quick note for everyon listening when we're talking

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Speaker 5: about this, you're always looking for betting value, so you

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Speaker 5: might hear us say, you know, I would bet this

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Speaker 5: even if it's not necessarily the front runner or the

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Speaker 5: one we think is going to win. It's because we

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Speaker 5: are essentially looking for the nominee with the greatest chances

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Speaker 5: of winning that are different from their odds, So you

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Speaker 5: might hear that.

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Speaker 1: But in this case, I think Parasite.

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Speaker 5: Is the favorite and should be the one that everyone

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Speaker 5: bets on. Let's get into Best Adapted Screenplay, and here

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Speaker 5: you're going to see pretty much the rest of the

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Speaker 5: Best Picture nominees, and of course adapted screenplay essentially based

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Speaker 5: on a previous work.

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Speaker 1: So you have Jojo Rabbit.

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Speaker 5: Right now as the slight favorite at minus one point

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Speaker 5: eight two. We Have Little Women was a previous front

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Speaker 5: runner down to plus one fifty The Irishman plus six fifty,

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Speaker 5: Joker plus four thousand and two Popes plus five thousand. Katie,

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Speaker 5: I'll kick it to you again first you actually like

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Speaker 5: one of the underdogs.

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Speaker 6: Last month, when we first started planning out this podcast,

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Speaker 6: Little Women looked like one of the favorites. But something

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Speaker 6: interesting has happened since then. Jojo Rabbit has emerged from

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Speaker 6: three back in the odds to being this light favorite.

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Speaker 6: As you mentioned, however, I do think that there's still

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Speaker 6: value on Little Women as a result of that. With

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Speaker 6: all the flak they got for snubbing Greta Gerwig out

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Speaker 6: of a Best Director nomination, I don't really think the

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Speaker 6: Academy can afford to not recognize her somehow, and whatever

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Speaker 6: their intentions may end up being, I think that enough

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Speaker 6: voters will end up finding a way to recognize her

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Speaker 6: with this category. I played Little Women at plus one seventy,

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Speaker 6: which is only thirty seven percent implied odds, so I

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Speaker 6: think there's actually value up here to minus two hundred.

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Speaker 1: Caroline, what do you think?

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Speaker 7: I am also going for the underdog here with Little Women.

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Speaker 7: Jojo Rabbit did win the Writer's Guild Award over the weekend,

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Speaker 7: which is probably the change in numbers that we're seeing.

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Speaker 8: But I agree with Katie.

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Speaker 7: I feel like the lack of recognition for Greta Gerwig

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Speaker 7: and Best director. The way that the public and the

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Speaker 7: industry have received this film, the Academy is going to

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Speaker 7: lean towards recognizing her in this category since they don't

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Speaker 7: have another opportunity to do so.

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Speaker 5: It's tough for me here because I actually did put

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Speaker 5: a little wager down on Little Women at plus one

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Speaker 5: seventy last month as well. You know, we talk a

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Speaker 5: lot about when we're betting sports here at the Action

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Speaker 5: Network Sharp Money. Of course, you know, we can kind

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Speaker 5: of see the amount of percentage of bets on a

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Speaker 5: given team and the amount of money. I like to

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Speaker 5: look at gold Derby dot com, which is a you

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Speaker 5: know site that specializes in predicting awards shows, and their

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Speaker 5: experts kind of have these two tied right now. Previously

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Speaker 5: Little Women was they were all over a Little Women,

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Speaker 5: which is kind of why I bet it.

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Speaker 1: So we do see Jojo Rabbit picking up steam here.

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Speaker 5: And I think the one interesting thing about Greta Gerwig

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Speaker 5: and you know, getting snubbed as a Best Director nominees

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Speaker 5: that you also have a taiko with Titi, who you know,

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Speaker 5: also a great director snubbed as well. So I mean,

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Speaker 5: if it doesn't come down to something as simple as

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Speaker 5: we snub Greta here. I still see the betting value

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Speaker 5: I think on Little Women. But I think this is

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Speaker 5: one to kind of monitor because if the experts are

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Speaker 5: kind of moving towards Jojo Rabbit and we kind of

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Speaker 5: see that picking up Steme, I think that will probably

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Speaker 5: be the winner.

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Speaker 3: Is there little women fatigue? I know that there's Greta Gerwig.

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Speaker 3: They want to honor her, and a lot of voters

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Speaker 3: will get their their ballots and they'll fill it out

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Speaker 3: for her. But is there little women fatigue? Because of

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Speaker 3: how many times this movie's been done?

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Speaker 8: I don't think so.

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Speaker 7: This adaptation in particular was done in such a way

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Speaker 7: that it's kind of a new take. It doesn't follow

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Speaker 7: the book directly. She's kind of taken the story that

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Speaker 7: everybody you know grew up with and made it into

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Speaker 7: its own thing. Personally, when watching the movie, it felt

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Speaker 7: like a different story to me. Putting the pieces together

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Speaker 7: so that it does feel fresh and new. The non

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Speaker 7: linear timeline that she uses within the film is really impressive,

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Speaker 7: and I think it allows for almost a modern take

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Speaker 7: on a timeless story.

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Speaker 6: Since this is Greta Gerwig, and since this is you know,

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Speaker 6: a direct and up and coming director that the Academy

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Speaker 6: is excited about. That definitely puts a different light on

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Speaker 6: it as well.

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Speaker 5: You know, I watch all the Best Picture nominees at

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Speaker 5: a minimum, in addition to pretty much any of the

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Speaker 5: other serious contenders for any categories I can. And when

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Speaker 5: I had first bet Little Women, I kind of do

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Speaker 5: it by mass. So when the odds de nominations kind

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Speaker 5: of drop it and the numbers come out, I have

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Speaker 5: a model. You know, Oscar Metrics is a popular book

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Speaker 5: that you guys can read if you want more info

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Speaker 5: on that. There's also, of course the golderby dot com expert.

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Speaker 5: So I kind of just bet based on mass. So

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Speaker 5: I bet Little Women. I had not seen Jojo Rabbit yet.

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Speaker 5: If I had removed the media attention surrounding the Greta

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Speaker 5: Gerwick snub for Best Director and all that, I would

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Speaker 5: have probably just said, Okay, you know Jojo Rabbit, and

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Speaker 5: I think that's why you saw.

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Speaker 1: Jojo win it. At the writers go.

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Speaker 5: I'm going to kick it to Colin and Colin we

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Speaker 5: have Best Sound Mixing nineteen seventeen is the favorite at

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Speaker 5: minus two point fifty. We have a couple other contenders

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Speaker 5: in here for V Ferrari being the main one. What

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Speaker 5: do you think here?

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Speaker 3: Everybody gets Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing, you know,

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Speaker 3: mixed up in their head. They don't know exactly what

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Speaker 3: the difference is between the two categories. So mixing is

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Speaker 3: obviously how we put two sounds together, and best Sound

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Speaker 3: editing is where like if you've ever seen how they

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Speaker 3: made Star Wars, they just squished a bunch of fruit

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Speaker 3: in their kitchen and they kind of drop those sounds

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Speaker 3: into the movie. And so people don't really realize that

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Speaker 3: there's a difference between the two categories, and the Academy

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Speaker 3: Awards don't sometimes realize there's a difference in the awards either.

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Speaker 3: They have two respected guilds for these categories for mixing

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Speaker 3: and editing. The Cinema Audio Society does sound mixing, and

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Speaker 3: then the Motion Picture Sound Editors they do sound editing.

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Speaker 3: And they have very small voter base and formed guilds

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Speaker 3: that pick out these awards, and they're almost never the same.

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Speaker 3: They pick out two different movies. When you get to

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Speaker 3: the Academy Awards, we're talking nine thousand voters, and those

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Speaker 3: voters generally don't know the difference between mixing and sound editing.

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Speaker 3: So what's happened is you've seen sixteen of the last

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Speaker 3: thirty eight Academy Awards the same movie has shared both

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Speaker 3: of these categories. So from a betting standpoint, for me,

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Speaker 3: nineteen seventeen and four Versus Ferrari lead the pack in

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Speaker 3: both categories. It gives value to both of them in

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Speaker 3: each of these categories. And four Versus Ferrari is the

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Speaker 3: first thing I thought when I walked out. There is

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Speaker 3: a sound genius of a movie is just roar the

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Speaker 3: entire time, and I think the best plan of attack

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Speaker 3: for both sound mixing and sound editing for me is

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Speaker 3: to find the one that's two to one as a

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Speaker 3: dog and take that because it's probably gonna win both categories.

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Speaker 1: There's a there's a clear battle here.

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Speaker 5: I think this one might actually be split only because

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Speaker 5: one of the things that we've seen happen a little

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Speaker 5: lately is that the Best Picture nominees they try to

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Speaker 5: give them at least one award, and I think Ford v.

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Speaker 5: Ferrari one of these categories might be a way for

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Speaker 5: the Academy to give them an award. So I think

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Speaker 5: when it comes down to mixing, I think this is

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Speaker 5: a this is nineteen seventeen, and then I think editing

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Speaker 5: could end up being Ford v.

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Speaker 1: Ferrari, But I do like nineteen seventeen for mixing.

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Speaker 5: So the best sound editing category is up next, And

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Speaker 5: here we have nineteen seventeen as the favorite at minus

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Speaker 5: two seventy five.

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Speaker 1: Ford v. Ferrari next one.

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Speaker 5: Up at plus one fifty, and then Once upon a

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Speaker 5: Time in Hollywood at plus twenty five hundred, Star Wars

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Speaker 5: plus twenty five hundred and Joker plus twenty eight hundred.

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Speaker 1: Colin, I'll kick it to you first. Where are you

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Speaker 1: going with sound editing?

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Speaker 3: There is a correlation with sound editing between movie budget

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Speaker 3: and past winners Ford versus Ferrari nineteen seventeen, Once upon

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Speaker 3: Time in Hollywood They all cost about ninety million dollars

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Speaker 3: to make. Joker was only sixty two point five and

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Speaker 3: Star Wars came in at two hundred and seventy five

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Speaker 3: million dollars to make. That's a lot of money. Jesus,

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Speaker 3: what do we at almost a billion dollars just to

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Speaker 3: make another Kylo rin Adam Driver shirtless movie?

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Speaker 5: How you've become I'm impressed.

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Speaker 3: I think this is truly a corn flip between Ford

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Speaker 3: versus Farri nineteen seventeen, and the investments should reflect that.

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Speaker 3: So if you can get two to one or better

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Speaker 3: here on either of the movies, I think it's a

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Speaker 3: good play. And lines are gonna fluctuate. Remember, nobody actually knows.

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Speaker 3: When you see all of this line movement, keep in

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Speaker 3: mind nobody actually knows. This is the one award ceremony

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Speaker 3: where no one knows who the actual winner is. So

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Speaker 3: when you see game day Steam, or you see somebody

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Speaker 3: chasing a number, or you see an expert out there

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Speaker 3: that says that they really know, they don't really know.

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Speaker 5: You know, I love to look at kind of how

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Speaker 5: the experts at gold Derbier are rating this, and you know,

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Speaker 5: the experts are generally the ones I look to because

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Speaker 5: you know, in fantasy football you have your experts and

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Speaker 5: you kind of look for the ones that are, you know,

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Speaker 5: the sharpest guys, and you see how they rank guys and.

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Speaker 1: The experts Ford v. Ferrari.

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Speaker 5: Ten experts have voted for Ford v. Ferrari versus eighteen

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Speaker 5: for nineteen seventeen. For the editors zero out of eleven.

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Speaker 5: That the people who finished in the top twenty four

301
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Speaker 5: last year, not everyone is voted, but five of the

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Speaker 5: twenty three only for Ford v.

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Speaker 1: Ferrari.

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Speaker 3: Ford v.

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Speaker 5: Ferrari is the most likely to win here if nineteen

306
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Speaker 5: seventeen doesn't, and that's the one I would bet because

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Speaker 5: they're the underdog, and I think, yeah, you can get

308
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Speaker 5: them at two to one or better plus two hundred.

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Speaker 5: I think that is a good call. And when you're

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Speaker 5: betting the Oscars period, a lot of times you find

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Speaker 5: the value on that first underdog. There's going to be

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Speaker 5: a favorite. They're going to be usually better than fifty

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Speaker 5: to fifty, which means that they're going to have a

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Speaker 5: minus in front of their odds at your sportsbook. And

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Speaker 5: then the first favorite, that first one projected to runner

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Speaker 5: up A lot of times, you see that is the

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Speaker 5: one that wins.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, fordvre Ferrari would be the value here.

319
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Speaker 5: Let's get into Best Makeup and Hairstyling. This is an

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Speaker 5: interesting one. We have Bombshell, which did not get nominated

321
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Speaker 5: for a Best Picture, but is a clear front runner

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Speaker 5: here at minus one thousand. Then we have a couple

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Speaker 5: of Best Picture nominees. We have Joker at plus five fifty,

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Speaker 5: nineteen seventeen at plus two thousand in the running as

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Speaker 5: well Judy at plus fourteen one hundreds of fourteen to one.

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Speaker 5: For Judy bringing up the rear, we have Melissa Fant

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Speaker 5: at thirty three to one. Any thoughts for any of

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Speaker 5: you guys here on this one.

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Speaker 3: For me, this is my first shooting for a home

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Speaker 3: run here on some dogs here. This is the first

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Speaker 3: category where I'm really taking a shot, and I'm going

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Speaker 3: to split it up into two categories here. I don't

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00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,800
Speaker 3: think the numbers should be where it is. So trends

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00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:57,480
Speaker 3: show in Best Makeup and Hairstyling that the winners tend

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Speaker 3: to have more overall nominations than average total nominations of

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Speaker 3: its competitors, and that's really important. Now, you say, why

337
00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:06,840
Speaker 3: is that some voters choose to vote for their favorite

338
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Speaker 3: across the board, no matter what they love the movie

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Speaker 3: in nineteen seventeen, they're just going to write it down

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Speaker 3: across every category. Other voters choose to honor a film

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Speaker 3: that's in an obscure category, So they may like Joker

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Speaker 3: not as the best picture, but they're going to give

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Speaker 3: it this obscure makeup and hair just to honor it

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Speaker 3: and say, well, I like the movie, so I'll give

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Speaker 3: you this, So that's how generally this category seems to go. Now,

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Speaker 3: look at the number of nominations in this category, Bombshell three,

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Speaker 3: Joker has eleven, Judy only has two, nineteen seventeen s

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Speaker 3: ten and Maleficent, which we will never say again only

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Speaker 3: as one. The average nomination size in this category is

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Speaker 3: five point four. Both Joker in nineteen seventeen have blown

351
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Speaker 3: that average size out of the water with eleven and ten, respectively.

352
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Speaker 3: So the trends for this category for best Makeup and

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Speaker 3: Hairstyle support Joker at plus four fifty in nineteen seventeen

354
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Speaker 3: at twenty five to one. I'm going to split up

355
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Speaker 3: a wager. I'm going to do a half unit on one,

356
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Speaker 3: a half unit on the other. And Bombshell, which only

357
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Speaker 3: has three nominations. I mean, they're the one catching all

358
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Speaker 3: the steam. And I understand for what the movie, what

359
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:07,640
Speaker 3: it represents, and people are going to think, well, that

360
00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:09,600
Speaker 3: looks like great makeup and that looks like great hair.

361
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:13,440
Speaker 3: But that's not how this category has generally predicted a

362
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:14,200
Speaker 3: winner in the past.

363
00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:17,400
Speaker 5: For me, I think the underdog picker is Joker. One

364
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,200
Speaker 5: of the ways I really like to look at kind

365
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:22,120
Speaker 5: of how the insiders here are voting is you know,

366
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,880
Speaker 5: the ones that they don't pick at all are generally

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Speaker 5: they're very accurate in that, like they almost never win

368
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,480
Speaker 5: an awar an oscar when they not even one expert

369
00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:33,640
Speaker 5: has picked it, like, it's very very rare. I think

370
00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:37,000
Speaker 5: only Olivia Coleman when she had that upset over Glenn

371
00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:39,120
Speaker 5: Close last year, was one of the only ones. So

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00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:42,520
Speaker 5: nineteen seventeen, none of the experts have picked it. Right now,

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00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:45,120
Speaker 5: only three of the twenty eight that have voted, I

374
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:48,359
Speaker 5: have picked Joker two for Judy of the you know underdogs,

375
00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 5: Joker queerly for me over nineteen seventeen, probably going to

376
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:54,320
Speaker 5: be more experts kind of flipping that one.

377
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:55,120
Speaker 1: So I'm with you.

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Speaker 5: I think I think Joker at plus four fifty would

379
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Speaker 5: be the way I go. But I could see nineteen

380
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 5: seventeen that we's being in the running. I think those

381
00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,120
Speaker 5: two movies are queery, the ones they kind of favors.

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Speaker 3: It's very important to look at makeup and Hairstyling Guild Awards, right,

383
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,439
Speaker 3: So Bombshell was in contemporary makeup, Joker was in period

384
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,560
Speaker 3: and character makeup. They both won, So they're going head

385
00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:13,400
Speaker 3: to head here the.

386
00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:17,359
Speaker 5: Period Character Makeup category at the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild Awards.

387
00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:19,680
Speaker 5: That's the one that has aligned on the last six

388
00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,639
Speaker 5: oscars in this category. So yeah, again, I think the

389
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,720
Speaker 5: value here is clearly on Joker, and depending on when

390
00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:29,680
Speaker 5: you listen, these odds might be vastly different. But another

391
00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:31,440
Speaker 5: one where if you can get it at anything down

392
00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:32,919
Speaker 5: to two to one, that's great.

393
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,800
Speaker 1: Let's get into Best Costume.

394
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:39,080
Speaker 5: Design and this is another one where we have a

395
00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:42,000
Speaker 5: somewhat of a face off between Jojo Rabbit and Little Women.

396
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 5: Little Women is the favorite here at minus three thirty five,

397
00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:50,399
Speaker 5: and then you have Jojo Rabbit at plus two seventy five,

398
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:52,840
Speaker 5: Once upon a Time in Hollywood at plus six fifty,

399
00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:57,520
Speaker 5: Joker at plus thirty three hundred, and the Irishmen at

400
00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,639
Speaker 5: fifty to one, so plus five Cole I.

401
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:01,320
Speaker 1: Could get to you first.

402
00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,240
Speaker 3: And in Katie, you know, the Costume Designer Guild Awards

403
00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:07,280
Speaker 3: is really important here and Little Women didn't even get nominated,

404
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,280
Speaker 3: and so you know that gives value to Jojo Rabbit.

405
00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:11,760
Speaker 3: And we're seeing some steam come in on Jojo. He

406
00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:13,440
Speaker 3: was you know, it was ten to one on the movie.

407
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,480
Speaker 3: Now it's plus two seventy five. We don't know where

408
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:17,199
Speaker 3: the market's going to go from here, but you know,

409
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,800
Speaker 3: if you even watched Jojo Rabbit, like Invisible friend Hitler

410
00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,639
Speaker 3: points out his pants, Jojo Rabbit's best friend is like

411
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,400
Speaker 3: pointing out his new military fatigues he's wearing. And then

412
00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:28,000
Speaker 3: when he gets blown up later in the movie and

413
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:28,640
Speaker 3: they're talking.

414
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:30,560
Speaker 1: About how, you know, his suit kind of came apart.

415
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,240
Speaker 3: Jojo Rabbit wants you to notice their best costume design,

416
00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:36,399
Speaker 3: and the Costume Design Designer Guild Awards means everything to

417
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 3: this category. Jojo Rabbit won it and knives out one

418
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 3: for contemporary film and Molficent one for fantasy film, and

419
00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,800
Speaker 3: neither of those other two movies that one contemporary fantasy

420
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 3: film are in this category, So Jojo one for period film.

421
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:49,359
Speaker 3: That's a good indicator that they're going to take it

422
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,600
Speaker 3: down here. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jojo as

423
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 3: possibly a favor by the time the showtime comes around

424
00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:56,639
Speaker 3: for the Academy Awards. So I'm taking a shot on

425
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,320
Speaker 3: Jojo here at the current plus two seventy five. Oh

426
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,880
Speaker 3: why about it? Let you in on a little secret.

427
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:03,080
Speaker 3: I couldn't care less.

428
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, in terms of betting value, I think another underdog

429
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,639
Speaker 6: with consideration this category is Once upon a Time in Hollywood. Chris,

430
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 6: you've mentioned the gold Derby experts. Five of their twenty

431
00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,119
Speaker 6: eight have picked Once upon a Time in this category

432
00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 6: versus only three for Jojo Rabbit and then of course

433
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:19,600
Speaker 6: twenty for Little Women, as it is the favorite, which

434
00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 6: makes sense again looking for that betting value, I think

435
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:25,720
Speaker 6: that Once upon a Time is a potential underdog sleeper here. Also,

436
00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:28,399
Speaker 6: it has the Hollywood tinge to it. You know, we

437
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 6: know the Academy loves movies about itself. I'm sure it

438
00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 6: also loves movies that depict an era in which is

439
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 6: still enshrined as the Golden Ones.

440
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,760
Speaker 3: So how can you put clothes on Brad Pitt and

441
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 3: Leonardo DiCaprio and not win this category?

442
00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:50,160
Speaker 4: And Margot Robbie right, yeah, yeah, it's only small, Yeah,

443
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 4: I think of those three, I definitely think that Margot

444
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 4: Robbie is Sharon Tate stands out here, and I think

445
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 4: that the Academy will eat that up.

446
00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,359
Speaker 1: I think that was really sharp take by Katie.

447
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 5: As far as you know, if you look at the

448
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 5: implied odds right around eighteen percent, that would be about

449
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 5: a four and a half to one, so you can

450
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 5: feel good playing that down to about you know, five

451
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 5: to one or four and a half to one, you know,

452
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 5: and feel good about it. And right now it's at

453
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 5: you know, six and a half to one plus six fifty,

454
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:20,440
Speaker 5: So I do like the value on Once upon a Time.

455
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:21,160
Speaker 1: All right.

456
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:26,359
Speaker 5: Next, we have best animated short and the front runner

457
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,639
Speaker 5: is hair Love at minus two fifty. We have Kitbll

458
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 5: at plus two twenty five, Memorable at plus one thousand,

459
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 5: Sister at plus one thousand, and Daughter at plus thirty

460
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 5: three hundred. So if you look at the gold Derby experts,

461
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 5: now eighty one percent are backing hair Looves, so that

462
00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:47,440
Speaker 5: would be about minus four fifty if you were converting

463
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,440
Speaker 5: that to betting odds, and being that Hairlove is still

464
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 5: at minus two fifty, I think that is where the

465
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 5: value is in terms of the favorite. Not too many

466
00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 5: people predicting an upset for that once, so again I

467
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 5: think you can feel good about hair Love up to

468
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 5: odds of minus for fifty. All right, it'll be interesting

469
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 5: to see how many people are going to bet this one.

470
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,120
Speaker 5: But we're covering every category here, so let's get into

471
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 5: live action short film. We have Brotherhood as a favorite

472
00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 5: at minus three h five. We have The Neighbor's Window

473
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 5: at plus two twenty five, Saria at plus eight hundred,

474
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 5: a Sister of plus one thousand, and Neft the Football

475
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:30,880
Speaker 5: Club at plus fourteen hundred. And I'm just going straight

476
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 5: for the experts here. Fifty nine percent of the experts

477
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 5: are on Brotherhood, and there's really none of them that

478
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 5: stick out as better than what the you know what

479
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,119
Speaker 5: the experts are kind of implying here. So this is

480
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 5: one where if you're absolutely betting it, I'd probably just

481
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 5: go and revert back to the favorite, because I don't

482
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,199
Speaker 5: think there's any value on the underdog. It's all split up.

483
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 5: That's really my only advice here, But this is probably

484
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 5: a stay away.

485
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 3: Some books let you parlay categories, you know, and I

486
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 3: think we should talk about that because people are going

487
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 3: to look at like a minus three h five or

488
00:21:58,280 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 3: a minus one thousand and say, well, this should be

489
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,199
Speaker 3: like one't part of my parlay card. I think this

490
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 3: one is such a crapshoot where I wouldn't put a

491
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 3: minus three oh five on brother even in my parlay

492
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 3: card for Action.

493
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:09,679
Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, And just for everyone listening out there who

494
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 5: might be unfamiliar. The implied odds are the probability that

495
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 5: the book is implying when they give you those odds.

496
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 5: You can kind of take that that number and add

497
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 5: one hundred and then divide, you know, the original number

498
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 5: into it. So minus three oh five would just be

499
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 5: three oh five into four oh five, implying just about

500
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 5: a round a seventy five percent chance to win. That's obviously,

501
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 5: you know, not as high as the experts at fifty

502
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 5: nine percent. But you know, the books are also not

503
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 5: really giving you good odds on any of the underdogs.

504
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 5: And the way you calculate that one would be you

505
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 5: just take the number one hundred, you divide it into

506
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 5: the plus money odds plus one hundred. So like for

507
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 5: a sister, for example, you just divide one hundred into

508
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 5: seven fifty. You get about thirteen percent, and you know

509
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 5: that that is not the you know, experts are around

510
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:52,919
Speaker 5: seven percent for that one. So it's the same thing

511
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 5: kind of for all the underdogs. You don't really get

512
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 5: any value there. So sometimes we'll just say three to

513
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:58,680
Speaker 5: one if it's plus three hundred, they both mean the

514
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 5: same thing. So let's get into another obscure category Best

515
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:07,120
Speaker 5: Documentary Short Subject. Here we have a pretty queer front

516
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 5: runner learning to skateboard in a war zone. However, Colin,

517
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 5: you like an underdog in this one?

518
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 1: Tell us why I do?

519
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 3: There's a very buzzy underdog and shorts and Best Documentary

520
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 3: Short Subject and learning to skateboard in a war zone

521
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 3: if You're a Girl is a story that's definitely worth telling,

522
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 3: but it doesn't really tap into the current democratic politics

523
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 3: on gun violence like Saint Louis Superman. So if you

524
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 3: want to know, you know, one of these stories is

525
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 3: a foreign story, you know, learning to skateboard in a

526
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 3: war zone as to where Saint Louis Superman is about

527
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,160
Speaker 3: an activist in Ferguson, Missouri who's elected to the Missouri

528
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 3: House of Representatives. You know, the main character, he's a

529
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 3: I think he's a rapper, and his brother was murdered

530
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 3: thirty years ago when he when he was nine years old,

531
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 3: and the events in Ferguson led him all the way

532
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 3: to Washington to pass a bill declaring gun violence and

533
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 3: the Ferguson Saint Louis region is a public health risk.

534
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 3: To say this as clearly as I can, this is

535
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 3: the most buzzy of all five. This is the one

536
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 3: that the Academy can jump on word of mouth, critics, reviews,

537
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 3: everything is going to be domestic gun violence, our culture,

538
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 3: and not to mention that the Academy Awards. Within the

539
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 3: last ten years, the voters have come under fire for

540
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 3: not being diverse enough and picking the same thing, and

541
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 3: there's jokes about it. Told every year at the Academy Awards.

542
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 3: They've added fifteen hundred voters in the last four years.

543
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 3: I think, and I think that this is a movie

544
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 3: where you're going to see a lot of talk about it.

545
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 3: I think the ten to one is we've already seen

546
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 3: Steam go from fourteen to one to ten to one,

547
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 3: and as we get closer to the Academy Awards, I

548
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 3: think this number is only going to shrink. And I

549
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 3: think Saint Louis Superman has a real shot of taking

550
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 3: home the.

551
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 1: Kind of sat a little more clearly.

552
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 5: I know you kind of golost overc but essentially what

553
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 5: we're saying here is that the Academy is pretty liberal

554
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 5: to everyone but the liberal media, in which case they're

555
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 5: not liberal enough, and based on that, I think with

556
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 5: Superman would be that choice and if you look at

557
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 5: the experts here at gold Derby value showing there as well.

558
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 5: Because you have, of course the front Runner learning to

559
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 5: skateboard about seventy eight percent, that would imply you know

560
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 5: about bettit to about minus three fifty. However, say it

561
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 5: with Superman seven point four percent of experts, which doesn't

562
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 5: sound like a lot, but that would mean you would

563
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 5: bet at to about twelve and a half to one.

564
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 5: And right now it's still at fourteen to one, so

565
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 5: you can feel good betting that down to twelve and

566
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 5: a half to one. I would jump on this now

567
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 5: if you are listening, because as it gets steamed, I

568
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 5: think that you will see those odds kind of shrink

569
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 5: a little bit. So do love Saint Louis Superman. Let's

570
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 5: get into best documentary feature the front Runner American Factory.

571
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 1: We have for Sama at plus one point fifty.

572
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 5: We have Honeyland at plus one thousand, Cave at plus

573
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 5: five thousand, and The Edge of Democracy at plus eight thousand.

574
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,239
Speaker 5: As far as this one, I mean, American Factory is

575
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,439
Speaker 5: you know a favorite. It's minus two fifty. If you

576
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 5: look at the experts there, they're pretty much in agreement.

577
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 5: It's about eighty five percent for them, and then the

578
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 5: only other thing as far as the oscar metrics going.

579
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 5: You can look at you know, the critics in Rotten

580
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 5: Tomatoes and IMBB scores, and I think the one worry

581
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 5: here for American Factory is that they didn't do very

582
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 5: well in IMBB audience score, just a seven and a half.

583
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: That tends to not bode well.

584
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 5: And then you have for Sama, which actually won at

585
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 5: the BAF does in this category. For those two reasons,

586
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 5: I would probably just look to take for Sama, but

587
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 5: you know, the odds aren't great anymore. They've kind of

588
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 5: been bet down, but that also is kind of an

589
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 5: indication that it has a better chance, but it's down

590
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 5: to you know, one and a half to one. I

591
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 5: think if I'm betting it, I am, you know, going

592
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 5: to lean that way fade American Factory because it's the

593
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 5: front runner, but it's kind of on shaky ground. So

594
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 5: let's get back to these Best Picture contenders. You know,

595
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 5: we got through some of those those short film categories,

596
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,720
Speaker 5: a lot of just obscure films that maybe you guys

597
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 5: haven't seen as much of.

598
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 1: But we're back.

599
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 5: Visual Effects nineteen seventeen, the favorite at.

600
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 1: Minus one thirty four.

601
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 5: We have The Irishman at plus five fifty or five

602
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 5: to one. We have Avengers Endgame, actually was the front

603
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 5: runner before. It's actually at plus two to fifty now,

604
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 5: so we have seen some line movement there because Avengers

605
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 5: Endgame was at minus one ten about a month ago.

606
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 5: Then comes Irishman at plus five fifty, Lion King plus

607
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 5: six hundred, and Star Wars at plus.

608
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:26,439
Speaker 1: Twenty five hundred.

609
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 5: I actually took nineteen seventeen way back when it was

610
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 5: plus nine hundred, so I am really hoping that this

611
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 5: is truly the favorite now and it does hit, you know,

612
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 5: it's all the way up to minus one thirty four.

613
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 5: I think this one this is one of those ones

614
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 5: where nineteen seventeen is viewed as a technical achievement. It

615
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 5: has ten nominations, second behind only Joker. This is one

616
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 5: of those categories where you usually reward one of those

617
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 5: Best Picture nominee and I think this has nineteen seventeen

618
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 5: written all over it. So still pretty good odds here

619
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 5: for a movie that I think is better than fifty

620
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 5: to fifty to win.

621
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 1: It's only at minus one thirty four.

622
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 5: I would go in nineteen seventeen here up to about

623
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 5: probably minus two hundred.

624
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 1: It's get into film editing. This is one. This is

625
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,400
Speaker 1: a big Best Picture precursor.

626
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 5: You know, when you see film editing, you know, we

627
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 5: know about Best Director in the Screenplay Awards. Film editing

628
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 5: is one that you know you can see a Best

629
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 5: Picture winner winning one of these, and you also see

630
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 5: the Best Picture nominees kind of secure in the victory here.

631
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 5: So it's interesting because the front runner for a while

632
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 5: has been Ford v.

633
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 1: Ferrari.

634
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 5: It's still a small favorite at minus one fifteen, but

635
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 5: you have Parasite just knocking on the door.

636
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 1: At plus one twenty five.

637
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 5: You have Irishman plus six hundred, Jojo Rabbit plus twenty

638
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 5: five hundred or twenty five to one in Joker fifty

639
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 5: to one. So Colin, what are you thinking here? I

640
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 5: know the metrics kind of point in a certain direction.

641
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, per Oscar metrics, the Best Film Editing is considered

642
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 3: a close tie end to Best Pictures. So if you're

643
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 3: not nominated for Best Film Editing, you have a much

644
00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 3: lower probability of winning Best Picture. Shout out nineteen seventeen

645
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 3: there since they're not nominated for Best Film Editing, And

646
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 3: just to stop here in the middle of the pod

647
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 3: and say they could lose. There's a lot of categories

648
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 3: we had at the beginning, as far as sound goes,

649
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 3: as far as screenplay goes. I mean, this could line

650
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 3: up to be a bunch of dominoes. The A's still

651
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 3: standing up at the end of the night for nineteen seventeen,

652
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 3: they're not even nominated for Film editing, so we'll see

653
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 3: what kind of night they have. But what you should

654
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 3: do is if you like a Best Picture but there

655
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 3: is a better price on that picture in Best Film Editing,

656
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 3: you should go take the Best Film Editing number. And

657
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 3: the reason is because there's such a close tie in

658
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 3: between the two categories. Best Film Editing is a good indicator,

659
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 3: and there's not going to be any live books open

660
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 3: for you to have Best Picture after Best Film Editing

661
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 3: is announced. So if there's a better price in Best

662
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 3: Film Editing versus the picture Best Picture you like, you

663
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 3: should go take that.

664
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 5: That's a sharp take, And I think this is parasites

665
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 5: to lose here, and the fact that you're still getting

666
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 5: them as a swight underdog is just extremely, extremely good value.

667
00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 5: Because if you look at the Eddy Awards, which are

668
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 5: you awarded for the Best Film Editing. Parasite actually pulled

669
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 5: the upset over for v Ferrari. So this is one

670
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 5: where I think you take Parasite here and you don't

671
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 5: even think twice about it.

672
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 1: All right, let's got your Best Original Song.

673
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 5: A queer front runner here is Love Me Again from

674
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 5: the film Rocketman Minus one thousand, Caroline, there is an

675
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 5: underdog that I think you want to talk a little

676
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 5: bit about.

677
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 1: Yes.

678
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 7: Stand Up from Harriet is performed by Cynthia Rivo, who's

679
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 7: also nominated for Best Actress for her role in Harriet

680
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 7: as Harriet. I do think that this is one to watch.

681
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:40,959
Speaker 7: Cynthia Rivo nominated for both of these awards. If she

682
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 7: wins one of them, she becomes a member of the

683
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 7: Egoch Club, So I think it's definitely going to be

684
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,959
Speaker 7: two categories to watch. I can't say for certain that

685
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 7: this one will win over Love Me Again by Rocketman,

686
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 7: but I do think it's really interesting to look at

687
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 7: Cynthia being nominated in this category as well. I think

688
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 7: with Best Original Song, it's not always the most popular one.

689
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 7: Frozen two is nominated just because that film was popular

690
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 7: and has a lot of you know, media attention.

691
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 8: I don't know that that's going to be one to

692
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 8: take it.

693
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 3: For those of you live out there listening to this,

694
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 3: all of us are podcasting with Cyncia Rivo shirts on

695
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 3: right now. That's how much we love her.

696
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 8: Big fans.

697
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, she was so good in Harriet, you know, of course,

698
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 5: playing the role of Harriet Tubman. Caroline, I'm kind of

699
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 5: in agreement with you. I think that if there is

700
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 5: an upset here, it's stand up. And you know, this

701
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 5: is one where the golder be experts. At one point

702
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 5: there was a lot of love for stand up, about

703
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 5: a quarter of them. We're actually predicting stand up would

704
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 5: be the upset of Victor. However, they've kind of changed

705
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 5: her tune a little bit now, you know, only one

706
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 5: of twenty eight are picking them. A couple have pivoted

707
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 5: to toy story. I can't let you throw yourself away.

708
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 5: So that's some things that kind of keep in mind.

709
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 5: But I would stay. You know, I did get down

710
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 5: on stand up. I think I got it about seven

711
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 5: to one, So I'm still hoping for stand up. I

712
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 5: think there is if anyone wants another long shot besides

713
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 5: stand up, which I think I still feel decently good

714
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 5: about it would be that I can't let you throw

715
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 5: yourself away from Toy Story twenty eight to one, that

716
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 5: those are kind of the ones that I would lean to.

717
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 5: Let's go to best original score. So this is one

718
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,959
Speaker 5: where it's kind of the the overall music in the

719
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 5: movie as opposed to song, which is an individual song.

720
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 5: Here we have Joker as the front runner at minus

721
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 5: six seventy. Then we have nineteen seventeen at three and

722
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 5: a quarter to one or plus three twenty five with

723
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 5: a women twelve to one, Marriage Story twenty five to one,

724
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 5: Star Wars thirty three to one, and let me kick

725
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 5: it to Colin a.

726
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 3: Big movie soundtrack guy, but the whole Danny Elfman, John Williams,

727
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 3: Thomas Newman. Those are some just mainstays in my Spotify playlist.

728
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 3: By the way, Spotify where you can find the Action

729
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 3: Network podcast, you should go and sign up today. So

730
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 3: I think one thing is is Joker for the composer

731
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 3: hild Her and I'm not going to even make an

732
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 3: attempt at the last day after so much practice and

733
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 3: watching her name pronounced. But she is also winning for

734
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 3: Schernobyl right now. She just want to Grammy for Schernobyls.

735
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 3: She's on Fires Composer of the Year at the twenty

736
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 3: nineteen World Soundtrack Awards, so it makes sense that she's

737
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:21,719
Speaker 3: favored here and that the Joker is heavily favored here

738
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 3: and taking plenty of steam. But I will say there's

739
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 3: going to be a sentimental vote put in by some

740
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 3: of the voters for Thomas Newman. Thomas Newman has never

741
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 3: won an oscar an Original Score or Song. And you say,

742
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 3: maybe this is the first time you've ever heard of

743
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 3: Thomas Newman the name, but you've definitely heard his music.

744
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 3: He's had fifteen nominations that include Shawshank, Redemption, American Beauty Finding,

745
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 3: Nemo Wally. This guy has never won an Academy Award

746
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 3: for Original Score or Song. At some point you get

747
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 3: a Lifetime Achievement Award, and that is a possibility here,

748
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 3: But no Joker should win.

749
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 5: I like Joker, you know, I think the eyes that

750
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 5: you would feel comfortable betting it right now, eighty six

751
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 5: percent of the gold Derby experts white Joker. I do

752
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 5: think that you know, after watching all these films, that

753
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 5: Joker did by far have the best score, and the

754
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 5: odds would be about minus six hundred where you would

755
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 5: feel comfortable anything more than that, And it's you know,

756
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 5: at DraftKings right now, it's at minus six seventy, so

757
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,359
Speaker 5: you'd like to see that come down a tiny bit,

758
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 5: not a not a huge difference. So I think, you know,

759
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 5: if you're the type out there you're listening, you like

760
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,359
Speaker 5: to bet every category, and you're you're looking to bet

761
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 5: the favorite here, I don't. I think you can feel

762
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 5: okay at minus six seventy, but minus six hundred would

763
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 5: be where I would want these odds.

764
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 6: So if you're not looking to back a favorite in

765
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 6: this category, and you're looking for one long shot just

766
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 6: across all all all of the categories, I would say, honestly,

767
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 6: marriage Story at plus twenty five hundred could be worth

768
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 6: a flyer. Marriage Story we haven't talked a lot about

769
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 6: so far on this podcast. It got a lot of nominations.

770
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 6: I believe they had six or seven total across some

771
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 6: of the major categories. I know, Colin, you've got a

772
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 6: pick for this movie later on in the podcast, but

773
00:34:58,320 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 6: I do think that if you are looking for really

774
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 6: well odds, marriage Story at plus twenty five hundred here

775
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 6: could be worth a shot. And Randy Newman actually did

776
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,879
Speaker 6: this score, and as everybody knows, he is very well

777
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 6: loved both outside and within the Academy. Wouldn't be too surprise.

778
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 3: There the winning Newman, not the losing Thomas Neon.

779
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 5: Let's get into best production Design for this one. We

780
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 5: have one of the original Best Pitcher favorites. It's kind

781
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 5: of lost some steam lately. Once upon a Time in Hollywood.

782
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 5: They are a short Favorite minus one fifty five nineteen

783
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:35,280
Speaker 5: seventeen at plus one seventy five, Parasite plus three fifty

784
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 5: The Irishman plus thirty three hundred and Jojo Rabbit plus

785
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 5: five thousand, Colin, how are you feeling about this one?

786
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, this one is I don't think anybody should ever

787
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 3: be fifty to one or thirty three to one or

788
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 3: a huge long shot because there's no real huge statistical

789
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 3: trends around production design. It's really around three different access

790
00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:01,240
Speaker 3: which is time, location, genre. You know, the US, France,

791
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 3: and Britain are equal in this category for wins. When

792
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 3: you talk about location, New York has specifically dominated this

793
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:09,800
Speaker 3: over California and Illinois movies in the past, and drama

794
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 3: has had the most winners, but it's also had the

795
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 3: most amount of nominees, so it's hard to say, you know,

796
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 3: that drama trumps everything other kind of movie. There's no

797
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,359
Speaker 3: play in the category, but I think it's completely wide open.

798
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,720
Speaker 3: The thing about Best Production Design is is which movie

799
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 3: made you feel like you were actually there? And I

800
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 3: have to say, you know, Jojo did just as good

801
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 3: of a job making me feel like I was in

802
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 3: Hitler's youth camp learning how to use my Hitler knife

803
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 3: as Paris I did making me think I was in

804
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 3: the slums watching a guy piss outside my window every night.

805
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 3: I think the point is is nobody should be too

806
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 3: huge of a dog here. And I'm not saying that

807
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 3: you want to have a huge investment on it, but

808
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 3: I don't think there's any way that anybody should be

809
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 3: a big favorite, and nobody should be a huge dog

810
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 3: or so if you want to throw ten, fifteen, twenty

811
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:52,919
Speaker 3: bucks on a fifty to one or a thirty three

812
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 3: to one for fun, I think this is the category

813
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 3: to do it.

814
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 7: The front runners here are definitely Once Upon a Time

815
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 7: in Hollywood in Parasite. I think Once Pon of Time

816
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 7: in Hollywood is definitely a front runner for me because

817
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 7: I felt like the Time was really accurately represented, and

818
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 7: I thought they did a really great job of showing

819
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,399
Speaker 7: you know, the old Hollywood on set life as well

820
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 7: as you know, taking it to the Manson compound. And

821
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 7: I do think one scene in particular that stands out

822
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 7: to me in Parasite is the flooding scene where they're

823
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 7: going back down to the slums and there's the rain

824
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 7: and and they get back to their house and everything

825
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 7: is flooded and they're grabbing everything. I do feel like

826
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 7: certain scenes from Parasite like that when certain aspects of

827
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 7: that stand out to me production wise. But if we're

828
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 7: looking at time location, I do think once pun of

829
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 7: Time in Hollywood kind of nails those. My money is

830
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 7: on once Pun of Time in Hollywood, But I wouldn't

831
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 7: be surprised if Parasite took this.

832
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:42,879
Speaker 5: Yeah, and you know, looking at the experts about sixty

833
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 5: eight percent, do you like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

834
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 5: We've talked a lot about about some of these Best

835
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 5: Picture noms, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at

836
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 5: one point was a front runner for that category. It's

837
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 5: kind of a lowesome steam, but it was still one

838
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:56,800
Speaker 5: of the Academy's favorites.

839
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 1: Here and you.

840
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 5: Know, heavily nominated this it might end up just being

841
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 5: one of those that Once upon a Time wins because

842
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 5: it's kind of not getting a lot of love elsewhere

843
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 5: because you know, as Katie and you guys mentioned they are,

844
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 5: they do kind of divvy these awards up a little bit.

845
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:14,280
Speaker 5: And we know Once upon a Time was a favorite

846
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 5: of the Academy. So yeah, I probably go once upon

847
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 5: a Time. I think it's still had a decent value

848
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 5: and it is again still better than fifty to fifty

849
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 5: if you look at you know, the industry experts.

850
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 1: So you have a couple of things that line up

851
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:26,240
Speaker 1: for the front runner.

852
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 3: Here.

853
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 5: Next we have Best Cinematography, and we won't spend too

854
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,800
Speaker 5: long on this one. Nineteen seventeen and the clear favorite

855
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 5: at minus five thousand. The other contenders Once upon a

856
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 5: Time in Hollywood, the Irishman, Whitehouse, and Joker. Four percent

857
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 5: of the experts are predicting Joker. The other ninety six

858
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 5: percent are picking nineteen seventeen. So anything twenty five to

859
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:52,760
Speaker 5: one or better for Joker I think is a solid

860
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 5: long shot hedge. But nineteen seventeen looks like it has

861
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 5: this one in the bag. Let's go to Best International

862
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 5: Feature Film, And we don't really have to spend much

863
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 5: time on this at all because this is parasite just

864
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:09,800
Speaker 5: dominating in this one. You have to weigh minus ten thousand.

865
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 7: Without a doubt, it's going to be parasite for sure.

866
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 7: I don't think there's any real competition. My only concern

867
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 7: I don't know if anything in OSCAR metrics spoke about this,

868
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 7: but is there anything if film wins Best International Feature

869
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 7: Film that they then go on to win Best Picture.

870
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 8: Has that ever happened?

871
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:32,360
Speaker 5: It has not so, and that's the worry for parasite

872
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 5: here with Best Picture is that you've never seen and

873
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 5: of course there's the first time for everything. We should

874
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:39,919
Speaker 5: mention that when we talk a lot about these precursors,

875
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 5: that the OSCAR changed to a preferential ballot a few

876
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 5: years back, and they also changed to more Best Picture

877
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 5: nominees to where you can have nine or ten. So

878
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 5: we've only had about a decade worth of that data

879
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 5: with this new format. So a lot of times when

880
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 5: you're looking at these precursors in that lens, just keep

881
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 5: in mind that the sample size is incredibly small. That

882
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 5: being said, we did have a situation last year, as

883
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 5: a matter of fact, where we had a front runner

884
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 5: for Best Picture that was Roma, and it ended up

885
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:13,400
Speaker 5: winning the International category, winning the Director category, and losing

886
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 5: Best Picture.

887
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 1: So that is something to keep in mind.

888
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 5: Of course, we'll talk about, you know, the full Best

889
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 5: Picture race after we get through the rest of these categories,

890
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 5: but yeah, that is something to keep in mind.

891
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 3: This category is a lay your entire bankroll, right, I mean,

892
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 3: there's no way Parasite doesn't win this.

893
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 5: Thing, probably, I would say the best bet on the

894
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 5: board in terms of most likely to win. You know,

895
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 5: all the experts alle hundred percent around them, pretty much

896
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 5: a lock here. Let's get into Best Animated Feature. That's

897
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 5: another one of those little more obscure categories. Although a

898
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 5: bunch of films that you know, some people have seen.

899
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 5: At least Toy Story, I think the favorite here minus

900
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,439
Speaker 5: two hundred. That is one where a lot of people,

901
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 5: depending on if you have kids or whatnot, you've probably

902
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 5: seen that one. You have Clause at plus one twenty five,

903
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:59,240
Speaker 5: Missing Link at plus nine hundred, I Lost My Body

904
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 5: at plus two thready three hundred, and How to Train

905
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 5: Your Dragon Hidden World at plus five thousand.

906
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 3: Con you know it's really easy to pick a winner

907
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 3: in this category, and I think you and I kind

908
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 3: of disagree here, Chris, on what our selections are, because

909
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 3: I don't think Missing Link and I Lost My Body

910
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 3: have a chance to win this. The steam would go

911
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 3: against me, It would support those two movies, but the

912
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 3: highest rate of movie per Rotten Tomatoes is in conjunction.

913
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:25,879
Speaker 3: In conjunction with it being a Pixar film, have meant

914
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 3: straight winners in this category the entire time. So let's

915
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:31,399
Speaker 3: go look at Rotten Tomatoes rankings of these movies. Missing

916
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 3: Leak eighty nine percent for the critics, sixty six percent

917
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,720
Speaker 3: for the audience, not very good, Toy Story four ninety

918
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,840
Speaker 3: seven percent for the critics, ninety four percent for the audience.

919
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,760
Speaker 3: That's huge. I Lost my Body ninety six and eighty seven,

920
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 3: You Know Dragon ninety percent, Clause ninety eight percent with

921
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 3: a you know, a high audience score. So I mean

922
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 3: Clause actually has a better chance than anybody of contending

923
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 3: with Toy Story. Toy Story moving back once at minus

924
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 3: two thousand on DraftKings, Missing Link one at the globes.

925
00:41:57,960 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 3: I think that's the reason why we're seeing some steam

926
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 3: come in here. So now Toy Story is all the

927
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 3: way down to minus two hundred, and I think that's

928
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 3: a number that I'm just gonna let Missing Link clause.

929
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 3: You know, I lost my body whatever this theme is

930
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:10,760
Speaker 3: going on these If Toy Story wants to continue to drop,

931
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 3: I'll come in and hit it. I mean, this is

932
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 3: a Pixar film. They got a ninety seven percent critics

933
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 3: score and a ninety four percent audience score. I can

934
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 3: see plenty of the nine thousand voters just filling this

935
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 3: out with Toy Story, no matter if Missing Link wanted

936
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:26,320
Speaker 3: Golden Globes or not. That's a completely different voting block

937
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 3: than what the Academy Awards is. So for me, I'm

938
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 3: going to let this number keep taking a dive on

939
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:32,759
Speaker 3: Toy Story four, and that's what I'll be on.

940
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 1: I think that I actually agree with you that clause.

941
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 5: It's probably the one, you know, looking at that that

942
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 5: ninety eight percent audience score and then you know, just

943
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 5: kind of looking at the odds now clause came way

944
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 5: down to plus one twenty five. You know, it was

945
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 5: the longest shot underdog about a month ago when we

946
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 5: first started kind of you know, looking at everything at

947
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 5: twenty five to one. So I think that the issue

948
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:55,880
Speaker 5: here is now you look at the experts and on

949
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:58,440
Speaker 5: gold Derby for example, and they, you know, about twenty

950
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 5: one percent like clause. So now that's down to you

951
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 5: would probably feel good betting that down to about three

952
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 5: and a half to one or so, but the odds

953
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 5: are a lot, you know, shorter than that.

954
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:08,800
Speaker 1: So then you have a Toy Story.

955
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 5: You know, they are seventeen of the twenty eight experts

956
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:14,839
Speaker 5: like Toy Story, so it's kind of there is a

957
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,959
Speaker 5: lot of dissension here. So I probably wouldn't bet Toy

958
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 5: Story unless it did get down to even money. I

959
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 5: think it has a fifty to fifty shot, and do

960
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,879
Speaker 5: not want away money on Toy Story. Let's get into

961
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 5: a big one Best Supporting Actor. These are kind of

962
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,839
Speaker 5: the ones where I think people are are pretty interested in.

963
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 5: We have some very very big front runners for some

964
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 5: of these categories. So Brad Pitt from Once Upon a

965
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:43,800
Speaker 5: Time in Hollywood is the big favorite at a little

966
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 5: over minus thirty three hundred.

967
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: Then we have Joe Peshi.

968
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 5: From The Irishman at twelve to one, Al Patino from

969
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 5: The Irishman at twenty eight to one, Tom Hanks from

970
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 5: a Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood at thirty five to

971
00:43:56,719 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 5: one and Anthony Hopkins from Two Polks at fifty to one. Caroline,

972
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 5: how we feeling about this one?

973
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 7: I think that Brad Pitt is a lock for this one.

974
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 7: This is a crazy category. There are a lot of

975
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 7: big names and a lot of great performances, but the

976
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,280
Speaker 7: Brad Pitt's performance once Bent a Time in Hollywood completely

977
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:15,720
Speaker 7: blows all the others out of the water.

978
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 8: He's a pretty safe bet for this category.

979
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:23,359
Speaker 1: I got to add this to my tender profile. Let's

980
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 1: be honest.

981
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:24,839
Speaker 3: It was a difficult part.

982
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 2: A guy who gets high, takes his shirt off and

983
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:30,760
Speaker 2: doesn't get home with his wife.

984
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:36,760
Speaker 1: This is a big stretch, okay, And yeah, I agree.

985
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 5: I actually bet on Brad Pitt to win this award,

986
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 5: And this is kind of why I do some of

987
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 5: these early I'm just to get a little down on

988
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 5: some of these favorites, and I got him actually a

989
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 5: minus six fifty again, he's minus thirty a little over

990
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 5: minus thirty three hundred right now. So one of the

991
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 5: twenty eight, just under four percent picks Anthony Hopkins to

992
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:58,160
Speaker 5: win this award, And I think in Oscar metrics. They

993
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 5: do talk about some of the older guys in this

994
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 5: category tend to get rewarded. You know, he's thirty three

995
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 5: to one to win this Best Supporting Actor for two

996
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 5: Pope for his role in two Popes, So.

997
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: I think that's worth a tiny, tiny hedge.

998
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 5: Let's get into Best Supporting Actress and Laura Dern marriage

999
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 5: story way out in front, just over MAYUS thirty three

1000
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:22,719
Speaker 5: hundred and then we have Margot Robbie of Bombshell at

1001
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 5: twelve to one, Florence Pew of Little Women at fourteen

1002
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 5: to one, Scarlett Johansson of Jojo Rabbit twenty five to one,

1003
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 5: and then Kathy Bates from the film Richard Jewel at

1004
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:39,720
Speaker 5: fifty to one, and Caroline, I'll start with you again.

1005
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,360
Speaker 1: Laura Dern here or are we going for an underdog?

1006
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 7: This is a pretty tight race between Florence Pugh and

1007
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 7: Laura Dern. The numbers have shifted a little bit since

1008
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 7: we first looked at it, and now Laura Dern is

1009
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 7: definitely the favorite. I think that Laura Dern is the

1010
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:57,640
Speaker 7: most likely winner. I do think Florence Pugh is great

1011
00:45:57,640 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 7: in Little Women. She's had an incredible year. There's no

1012
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 7: doubt that she's talented. She wrapped Midsommar and was on

1013
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 7: set filming Little Women the next day, which if you've

1014
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:08,359
Speaker 7: seen both of those films, you know how different they

1015
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 7: are and how I mean as an actor. It's just

1016
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 7: two completely different mindsets to be in Marriage Story. I

1017
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 7: thought the Laura Durn's performance really made the film for me.

1018
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:20,720
Speaker 7: I loved her as the lawyer. The Academy in general

1019
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 7: really likes Laura Durns, so I think that they'll recognize

1020
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:23,479
Speaker 7: her here.

1021
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, and to jump onto Laura Durn's performance and Marriage Story,

1022
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 3: just let me throw some life experience out there for

1023
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:30,920
Speaker 3: anybody that's never been divorced and is about to get

1024
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 3: a divorce, go watch a Marriage Story on Netflix. You

1025
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 3: want Laura Dern as your lawyer to defend you, to

1026
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:41,520
Speaker 3: get you through the worst time of your entire life.

1027
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,400
Speaker 3: And I think Adam Driver says it best, right Katie.

1028
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:46,319
Speaker 3: He says when he's washing the dishes, he says, I

1029
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 3: had to get my own asshole right. Laura Durn's performance

1030
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 3: in this is to a t what an asshole lawyer

1031
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 3: is that you want to represent you when you're going

1032
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 3: through a divorce.

1033
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 8: I'm going to stop you there.

1034
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 6: When you do this for real, don't ever say that you.

1035
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:02,279
Speaker 1: Will always be held to a different, higher standard. And

1036
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 1: it's fucked up, but that is the way it is.

1037
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:07,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think she's got this category locked up the

1038
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 6: same way that Brad Pitt has Best Supporting Actor locked up.

1039
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:12,879
Speaker 6: You had to lay a lot of juice to better

1040
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 6: even a month ago, but we've since finally seen those

1041
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 6: shift in a similar way that the odds had shifted

1042
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:21,320
Speaker 6: for for brad Pitt. Her performance was incredible to Caroline's

1043
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:23,759
Speaker 6: point that Academy does love her. To Collins point, she

1044
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,840
Speaker 6: captures a type of experience I think a lot of

1045
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 6: people can relate to, even especially within the Academy. So

1046
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 6: another thing I would add about marriage story, it really

1047
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 6: hinges on acting, like that is what this movie is.

1048
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 6: There's nothing splashy about it. There's no visual effects. The

1049
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:44,400
Speaker 6: screenwriting is great and the acting is great. So I

1050
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:47,359
Speaker 6: do think that Laura durn is pretty much a lock here.

1051
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:49,960
Speaker 3: It's amazing that she's a side note in Big Little Lies,

1052
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:51,640
Speaker 3: Like I think for anybody that's a fan of Big

1053
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 3: Little Lies, like you'll come to this movie and Laura

1054
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:56,200
Speaker 3: Durn's like just spot on just she's fantastic.

1055
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:58,919
Speaker 5: Yeah, like Laura durn And I hope you guys are wrong,

1056
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 5: I should say, because when the numbers first came out,

1057
00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:04,759
Speaker 5: I actually bet Florence Q at twenty to one.

1058
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:07,240
Speaker 1: But I would agree. I think I think Ward Dern

1059
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 1: is clearly the favorite here.

1060
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 5: All right, let's get into Best Director, and this is

1061
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 5: a big one as far as Best Picture precursors go.

1062
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 1: And here are the all male nominees.

1063
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:25,800
Speaker 5: We have Sam Mendez of nineteen seventeen, a clear favorite

1064
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:28,840
Speaker 5: minus twelve fifty. Then we have Bong June Oh of

1065
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:32,919
Speaker 5: Parasite at plus five hundred. We have Tarantino for Once

1066
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:36,439
Speaker 5: upon a Time in Hollywood at plus fourteen hundred, Martin

1067
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 5: Scorsese of The Irishman he is at plus four thousand,

1068
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 5: and Todd Phillips of The Joker plus five thousand. So

1069
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:46,359
Speaker 5: I will kick it to you first, Katie. I know

1070
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 5: you have kind of a contrarian view on this. Who

1071
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:48,960
Speaker 5: do you thinks win?

1072
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,719
Speaker 6: I do so this will either end up looking like

1073
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 6: a very sharp long shot or I'm going to be

1074
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 6: looking like the biggest idiot by the end of Sunday night.

1075
00:48:57,160 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 6: But I do think that there's value on Tarantino. Here's

1076
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 6: one best Director, which is a fact that I definitely

1077
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:05,880
Speaker 6: think the Academy was considering as they were voting, And

1078
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 6: Once Upon a Time is his ninth of ten promised

1079
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 6: future films, and there's still a non zero chance that

1080
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:12,800
Speaker 6: that's a Star Trek film, and I think the Academy

1081
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,200
Speaker 6: will definitely keep that in mind. When I apply my

1082
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:18,840
Speaker 6: theory of Once Upon a Time nineteen seventeen and parasites

1083
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 6: splitting Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay, Tarantino

1084
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 6: seems like the obvious pick for a director. Plus Once

1085
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:28,760
Speaker 6: Upon a Time is now the third favorite for Best Picture,

1086
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 6: which it previously was the first for a long time

1087
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 6: in the run up to award season. So knowing the

1088
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 6: negative correlation between winner of Best Picture and the winner

1089
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 6: of Best Director over the past few years, I'm all

1090
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 6: in on Tarantino. I initially bet him actually at plus

1091
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 6: eight hundred, and you can now get him at plus

1092
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:48,720
Speaker 6: fourteen hundred thanks to all the buzz around Sewn mendes

1093
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:52,280
Speaker 6: In and Bong June Ho. For context, plus fourteen hundred

1094
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 6: is only a six point seven implied in probability that

1095
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 6: it'll be Tarantino who wins, but in a three way race,

1096
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:01,480
Speaker 6: and with this hinging on Best Picture, I do think

1097
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:03,319
Speaker 6: that Tarantina was worth a long shot.

1098
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:06,600
Speaker 7: But here, Caroline, you like the favorite, tells h Yeah,

1099
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:09,280
Speaker 7: I'm betting on Samndez here. I think the long takes

1100
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 7: that they did give the illusion of one continuous take

1101
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 7: throughout the movie was successful. I think he created a

1102
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 7: great story. It reminded me a little bit just in

1103
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 7: terms of filming of the twenty fifteen Best Picture winner Birdman,

1104
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:23,799
Speaker 7: which also shot in one continuous take. I do think

1105
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:27,240
Speaker 7: that the Academy will recognize him for that choice. I

1106
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 7: recognize that there's not a lot of editing love for

1107
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 7: this movie, so I think that the directing will be

1108
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 7: where they kind of take it.

1109
00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 3: When you watch this movie. It took until the third

1110
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 3: time where I realized that they had to do so

1111
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 3: much precalculation before they filmed to make this a continuous movie.

1112
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 3: And I want to be specifically, when Scofield is running

1113
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 3: through the city of acoust they had to know they

1114
00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 3: sent flairs up into the air, and they had to

1115
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 3: know exactly the measurement of every shadow on the screen

1116
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 3: because they can't get caught with somebody from the set

1117
00:50:57,320 --> 00:51:00,919
Speaker 3: being shown or a shadow being shown. But they calculated

1118
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:03,839
Speaker 3: everything to a t the width of the trenches, the

1119
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:08,360
Speaker 3: height of the trenches, the shadows, and acuse win to cut,

1120
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:11,520
Speaker 3: you know, jumping into the river. Everything in that movie

1121
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:16,520
Speaker 3: from a lighting perspective, everything was pre calculated, and it's

1122
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 3: probably one of the technically most beautiful movies has ever

1123
00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 3: been done in history. Roger Deakins is gonna win cinematography

1124
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:24,239
Speaker 3: hands down. I don't evenink you can find odds on

1125
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:26,239
Speaker 3: it because it's such a shoe in and Mendez is

1126
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:28,880
Speaker 3: about as close you're going to get to getting Deacons

1127
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 3: in for cinematography. But you know, keep in mind five five,

1128
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 3: the last seven Best Directors and Best Picture have not

1129
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 3: been the same. If you want to bet on nineteen

1130
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:39,799
Speaker 3: seventeen to win Best Picture, it might be best to

1131
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:42,480
Speaker 3: pay a little bit more for Sam Mendez as Best Director.

1132
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 5: To me, it looked like Bond Juneo is going to

1133
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 5: be the only challenger because of you know, perhaps Parasite

1134
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:51,839
Speaker 5: wasn't going to get as much love elsewhere. So I

1135
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:53,520
Speaker 5: did bet it back. I think it was like plus

1136
00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 5: one seventy five. That's actually moved, you know, the other

1137
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 5: way so it's it's plus three hundred. Now Sam Mendez,

1138
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:01,360
Speaker 5: when you look at it, he is the clear favorite,

1139
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:03,400
Speaker 5: and there's actually value on him now at these odds,

1140
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:07,239
Speaker 5: because you know, again, Sam Mendez minus won thirty four

1141
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 5: that that's just a tiny bit better than fifty to

1142
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:11,360
Speaker 5: fifty and if you look at the experts, they're about

1143
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:14,280
Speaker 5: seventy percent. So I think there's value down to about

1144
00:52:14,480 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 5: minus you know, two fifty or so on Mendez here.

1145
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 5: So I actually do like the value here on Mendes.

1146
00:52:22,160 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 5: You don't often see that, and I'm sure these odds

1147
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:26,359
Speaker 5: will shift more in his favor. But he pretty much

1148
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 5: cleaned up all the directing awards throughout all, you know,

1149
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:32,200
Speaker 5: throughout award season, and of course the key one being

1150
00:52:32,200 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 5: the Director's Guild with which he took home. So I

1151
00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:38,240
Speaker 5: think that Mendez, to me is is a queer favorite.

1152
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:40,840
Speaker 5: And I think this is one where Best Picture. You know, Colin,

1153
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:41,279
Speaker 5: you kind of.

1154
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 1: Hit on it.

1155
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:44,360
Speaker 5: You know, it doesn't always line up, but this film,

1156
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:46,360
Speaker 5: you know, it being the front runner nineteen seventeen is

1157
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 5: the front runner for Best Picture. It has the second

1158
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:51,879
Speaker 5: most nominations at ten. I don't think that they they

1159
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 5: fade Mendez here. I think that they fade him at

1160
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 5: best pick.

1161
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:57,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, and I agree, And that's sad because

1162
00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:00,160
Speaker 3: the nineteen seventeen I think is my favorite movie out

1163
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:01,319
Speaker 3: of all of them in the bunch. But I think

1164
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:02,799
Speaker 3: this is where you want to try to cash in

1165
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:04,400
Speaker 3: on that. And two other notes we should put in

1166
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:07,360
Speaker 3: is that the Director's Guild has not failed to nominate

1167
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 3: the Oscar winner since nineteen forty nine. The Director's Guild

1168
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 3: has actually chosen the actual winner in all but seven years.

1169
00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:17,479
Speaker 3: Since nineteen forty nine, Sam Mendez won the Director's Guild

1170
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 3: Best Director. He's going to win it here.

1171
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:23,920
Speaker 1: Absolutely. I totally agree, Ladies and Gentlemen. Academy Award winner

1172
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:25,760
Speaker 1: Francis Smithdorman.

1173
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 3: I'll take us, sit up straight and at presentable.

1174
00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 1: Let's go to Best Actor.

1175
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:40,840
Speaker 3: The five distinguished nominees for Best Actor and a Leading.

1176
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:44,800
Speaker 5: Role are Joke and Phoenix of The Joker at minus

1177
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 5: five thousand. Big favorite there, Adam Driver for Marriage Story.

1178
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 5: He's at ten to one. We have Leonardo DiCaprio for

1179
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 5: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at thirty three to one.

1180
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:57,400
Speaker 5: Antonio Banderas from Payning Worri at fifty to one. In

1181
00:53:57,560 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 5: Jonathan Price from The Two Popes at sixty sixth to

1182
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:03,880
Speaker 5: one and how we feel about Face one.

1183
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:05,960
Speaker 3: Well, I first off, I don't want Katie to throw

1184
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 3: anything at me here because I might throw some shade

1185
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 3: at a Him Driver and I know that she's gonna

1186
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 3: get really mad at me. But I'm trying to poke

1187
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 3: holes in this Joaquin Phoenix role, right, I mean, he's

1188
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:16,799
Speaker 3: just he's outrageously out the door on his odds that.

1189
00:54:16,880 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 3: I mean, he's something that you feel like you can

1190
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 3: put into a parlay card. I mean he won. I

1191
00:54:20,719 --> 00:54:23,360
Speaker 3: think Golden globes sag. He's I think he swept almost

1192
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:26,440
Speaker 3: everything that he's been in and from a betting perspective,

1193
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:31,359
Speaker 3: Historically Prosco metrics the strongest best actor features are a

1194
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 3: non British man in a British role. Well, we don't

1195
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 3: have any of those in this list of guys, so

1196
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:37,680
Speaker 3: we don't have to worry about that this year, but

1197
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:39,440
Speaker 3: in further years you should look for a non British

1198
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 3: guy in a British role. Those have been money. I

1199
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 3: will give a shout out to Adam Driver. I thought

1200
00:54:43,719 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 3: he was absolutely fantastic in a marriage story. He deserves

1201
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:50,360
Speaker 3: all the buzz that he's getting. He showed tremendous amounts

1202
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 3: of layers to his acting. I mean, I'm a guy,

1203
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 3: I'm a Star Wars fanatic for my entire life, and

1204
00:54:55,080 --> 00:54:56,960
Speaker 3: this is a guy that just kind of grunted and

1205
00:54:57,040 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 3: emoed and would smash things up when he was pissed

1206
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:02,720
Speaker 3: off and then killed his dad as Kylo Wren. And

1207
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:06,520
Speaker 3: now he's having FaceTime conversations with Ray with his shirt off.

1208
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:10,880
Speaker 3: He means, to me, just left a really bad taste

1209
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 3: in my mouth. But then I see Adam Driver and

1210
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:15,799
Speaker 3: Black Klansman as a Jewish cop trying to infiltrate the

1211
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:18,359
Speaker 3: KKK is like the I mean, he's playing multiple roles

1212
00:55:18,400 --> 00:55:19,840
Speaker 3: in that movie. And then you go to a marriage

1213
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 3: story where you know he's a theater director and he's

1214
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:24,080
Speaker 3: you know, trying to fly to both coasts, and he

1215
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:27,600
Speaker 3: just he nails the role of a father who has

1216
00:55:27,640 --> 00:55:30,520
Speaker 3: had his life completely turned upside down, has had his

1217
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:32,920
Speaker 3: time split in half with his kid. His wife is

1218
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:34,960
Speaker 3: you know, just kind of said that she's done. They're

1219
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:36,760
Speaker 3: going to play it nice, and they don't play it nice.

1220
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 3: And his moments of frustration and yelling were so much

1221
00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 3: more focused and centered and hit home with me than

1222
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 3: anything he ever did as Kylo Rent getting pissed off.

1223
00:55:46,040 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 3: So Adam Driver is good. I don't think he can

1224
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:50,799
Speaker 3: beat Jaquin Phoenix though anything else.

1225
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:53,640
Speaker 6: I would just like the record to reflects that Adam

1226
00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:57,839
Speaker 6: Driver's diversity and his acting ability has predated Star Wars

1227
00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:00,400
Speaker 6: as Kylo Rent. I understand that Kylo Ren's care is

1228
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:01,880
Speaker 6: very hateable, very emo.

1229
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:05,400
Speaker 3: I'll show you at dark Side.

1230
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:09,600
Speaker 6: However, if you've watched Girls, if you watched Francis Haw

1231
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 6: or any of the other movies that and Driver's done

1232
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:14,400
Speaker 6: with Noah Bombach, he has shown his range prior to this,

1233
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:16,840
Speaker 6: but I am happy that it finally reached you.

1234
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:18,839
Speaker 1: Colin Well, I.

1235
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:20,480
Speaker 3: Think we can agree that he's going to win this

1236
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 3: award someday. I mean, he is good enough to win

1237
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:25,680
Speaker 3: this award. It's just being a San Diego native that's

1238
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:28,360
Speaker 3: not British in an American role on Netflix is not

1239
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:29,880
Speaker 3: the combination to get you this award.

1240
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:32,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's definitely fair, and I do think you're right.

1241
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:33,799
Speaker 6: I think that he's young, He's going to be around

1242
00:56:33,800 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 6: for a long time. I do think that the Academy

1243
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:38,880
Speaker 6: realizes that, and we'll factor that in and to your point,

1244
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:40,800
Speaker 6: it is hard to poke holes on what Joaquin Phoenix

1245
00:56:40,840 --> 00:56:42,040
Speaker 6: did and Joker.

1246
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 7: One thing I will say about Jaquin Phoenix, the Academy

1247
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 7: loves method actors when you kind of completely immerse yourself

1248
00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 7: in the emotions and the kind of psychological aspects of

1249
00:56:52,640 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 7: your character. It's been widely reported that Joaquin Phoenix did

1250
00:56:56,680 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 7: not break character when on set he starved himself. He

1251
00:57:00,200 --> 00:57:02,400
Speaker 7: like many of the actors who have played the Joker,

1252
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 7: he kind of dove into this character and went a

1253
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:07,959
Speaker 7: little crazy himself in the process, which I think has

1254
00:57:08,160 --> 00:57:11,279
Speaker 7: proven to be successful for those playing the Joker in

1255
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:15,520
Speaker 7: giving an incredible performance, but in the acting community is

1256
00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 7: a little bit controversial. When looking at other method actors

1257
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:22,880
Speaker 7: such as Daniel day Lewis Meryl Streep, they are widely

1258
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:25,680
Speaker 7: revered by the Academy. There is something to be said

1259
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 7: for throwing yourself into the work, and I think people

1260
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:30,320
Speaker 7: recognize that, be it with the acting or even with

1261
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:32,920
Speaker 7: a physical appearance. People are more likely to win an

1262
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:34,760
Speaker 7: Oscar if they're shaving their head, if they lose a

1263
00:57:34,760 --> 00:57:36,200
Speaker 7: lot of weight, if they gain a lot of weight.

1264
00:57:36,320 --> 00:57:38,480
Speaker 7: So I do think that that is going to be

1265
00:57:39,120 --> 00:57:40,680
Speaker 7: a factor, and I do think that's one.

1266
00:57:40,600 --> 00:57:42,760
Speaker 8: Of the reasons that Joaquin Phoenix is a lot here.

1267
00:57:43,160 --> 00:57:45,840
Speaker 3: Anytime you do something to your appearance or your body

1268
00:57:45,920 --> 00:57:48,200
Speaker 3: in the best Actor role, it seems to get you home.

1269
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:51,320
Speaker 5: Fun fact, where they filmed that movie in one of

1270
00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 5: the training stations scenes been for Park Boulevard. That is

1271
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:56,720
Speaker 5: actually where I grew up, my hometown, my actual training stop.

1272
00:57:56,800 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 5: So I'm hoping joker with I think Joakim was better

1273
00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 5: than he Ledger in that role. You look at the

1274
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 5: eleven nominations leading all movies as far as acting goes.

1275
00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 5: He was on screen for a large portion of the time.

1276
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:11,560
Speaker 5: You really got into his psychology as you kind of

1277
00:58:11,560 --> 00:58:13,320
Speaker 5: went through that film, and you weren't kind of looking

1278
00:58:13,320 --> 00:58:15,200
Speaker 5: at it as oh my god, the jokers going nuts

1279
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 5: like you were really thinking about it, you know, as

1280
00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:20,240
Speaker 5: he would. So I think let's get into Best Actress.

1281
00:58:20,920 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 6: And here are all the nominees for Best Performance by

1282
00:58:23,480 --> 00:58:24,840
Speaker 6: an Actress in a Leading Role.

1283
00:58:28,320 --> 00:58:31,280
Speaker 5: Do we have Renee Zellweger as the favorite at a

1284
00:58:31,320 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 5: little more than minus three thousand, Scarlett Johansson for Marriage

1285
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 5: Stories plus eleven to one, Cynthia Arrivo twenty five to one,

1286
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:42,520
Speaker 5: I'm sure we will talk about her and Charlie Stone

1287
00:58:42,840 --> 00:58:44,880
Speaker 5: from Bombshell thirty three to one.

1288
00:58:45,240 --> 00:58:47,960
Speaker 8: I can't believe this, and I'm not gonna.

1289
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 5: Cry sor Sharonan from Little Women thirty three to one

1290
00:58:52,040 --> 00:58:54,439
Speaker 5: as well. And I know a lot of opinions here.

1291
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:56,320
Speaker 5: Caroline starts off, who you think is going to win

1292
00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 5: this one?

1293
00:58:56,920 --> 00:58:59,120
Speaker 7: I am actually going to take a revo on this one.

1294
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:02,360
Speaker 7: I know that Renes Elweger won the Golden Globe, but

1295
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:05,400
Speaker 7: as Colin mentioned, it's a completely different voting process. So

1296
00:59:05,600 --> 00:59:07,400
Speaker 7: while I do think that put her at a slight

1297
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:10,480
Speaker 7: advantage as far as numbers go, I do think Arrivo

1298
00:59:10,560 --> 00:59:12,560
Speaker 7: is going to take it this year. They both played

1299
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:16,240
Speaker 7: historical characters, but I feel like Arivo will be recognized

1300
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:18,840
Speaker 7: by the Academy. The story of Harriet Tubman is a

1301
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:22,840
Speaker 7: little bit more groundbreaking, and I found her performance to

1302
00:59:22,920 --> 00:59:26,640
Speaker 7: be more impactful than renes Eltwikers. It also may be

1303
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:29,720
Speaker 7: worth mentioning Arrivo is the only person of color nominated

1304
00:59:29,720 --> 00:59:32,520
Speaker 7: in an acting category this year. I don't know how

1305
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:35,360
Speaker 7: much that's going to play into the Academy's thought process,

1306
00:59:35,440 --> 00:59:38,120
Speaker 7: but I do know that they are trying to diversify.

1307
00:59:38,240 --> 00:59:39,320
Speaker 8: They're not doing a great.

1308
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:41,360
Speaker 7: Job of it, but I'm hoping that the new voters

1309
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:43,280
Speaker 7: that have been added in the past few years will

1310
00:59:43,280 --> 00:59:45,920
Speaker 7: take that into account and will recognize her for the

1311
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 7: work that she's done this year.

1312
00:59:47,520 --> 00:59:50,840
Speaker 3: Yeah. So, sitting around at about two o'clock, three o'clock

1313
00:59:50,880 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 3: in the morning, reading these books oscar Metrics and doing

1314
00:59:54,600 --> 00:59:57,880
Speaker 3: a little you know, Google searching on some of the

1315
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:00,920
Speaker 3: aspects of this category thanks to we're not adding up

1316
01:00:00,960 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 3: for me for an Azel Wigger, And I thought to myself,

1317
01:00:04,480 --> 01:00:07,360
Speaker 3: I don't think that anybody's you know, there just seems

1318
01:00:07,400 --> 01:00:09,880
Speaker 3: to be a serious gap in this category as so

1319
01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:14,280
Speaker 3: far as the age, the role, and something is just

1320
01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:17,000
Speaker 3: not adding up for me whatsoever. Now I understand the

1321
01:00:17,040 --> 01:00:19,360
Speaker 3: stem just kind of took off on Zelwiger after she's won,

1322
01:00:19,680 --> 01:00:21,959
Speaker 3: you know what, sad and golden globes and everything else.

1323
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:25,400
Speaker 3: But the real question was out there is can Arivo

1324
01:00:25,520 --> 01:00:28,880
Speaker 3: pull off the upset? I started diving into statistical trends

1325
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:32,240
Speaker 3: to show two very strong metrics for Best Actress. The

1326
01:00:32,280 --> 01:00:35,120
Speaker 3: first is that you need to play historical characters. Historical

1327
01:00:35,200 --> 01:00:37,960
Speaker 3: characters always win Best Actress. Both Zelwiger and aar Revo

1328
01:00:38,000 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 3: are accomplishing that age. You should never talk about a

1329
01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:44,120
Speaker 3: lady's age, but age has a huge role in the

1330
01:00:44,160 --> 01:00:48,440
Speaker 3: oscars being handed out to actors, especially in Best Actress.

1331
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:52,160
Speaker 3: A Best Supporting Actress peaks in the early thirties, as

1332
01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:55,120
Speaker 3: the award has always favored a younger crowd. The curve

1333
01:00:55,280 --> 01:00:58,720
Speaker 3: is way different for an actress, as there's a steep

1334
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 3: decline around the mid twenties. Now, you know, late twenties

1335
01:01:01,840 --> 01:01:04,280
Speaker 3: and early thirties can still win the award for Best Actress.

1336
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:07,080
Speaker 3: You know, Marley Mattlin was twenty one, Jennifer Lawrence was

1337
01:01:07,080 --> 01:01:09,800
Speaker 3: twenty two, Audrey Hepburn was twenty four, and then it

1338
01:01:09,920 --> 01:01:13,280
Speaker 3: just goes into a flatline around the late thirties. All

1339
01:01:13,320 --> 01:01:16,840
Speaker 3: the forties, the fifties, the win probability for actresses in

1340
01:01:16,880 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 3: this age not good whatsoever. Then it rebounds just before

1341
01:01:20,680 --> 01:01:23,160
Speaker 3: the age of sixty. Helen Marin wanted at sixty one

1342
01:01:23,240 --> 01:01:25,920
Speaker 3: years old. Meryl Streep has wanted at sixty two. Jessica

1343
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,960
Speaker 3: Tandy driving was Daisy she was eighty years old. So

1344
01:01:29,000 --> 01:01:32,120
Speaker 3: Cynthia Rivo just turned thirty three. She is around twenty

1345
01:01:32,120 --> 01:01:34,640
Speaker 3: three percent win probability for all the best actresses that

1346
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:37,000
Speaker 3: have won before, which is you know, it's still in

1347
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:39,600
Speaker 3: the down curve, but she's not in the cellar, not

1348
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:43,760
Speaker 3: like renee Zelwigger, who is exactly fifty years old. Now,

1349
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:46,080
Speaker 3: going back to a Revo, there's been six previous winners

1350
01:01:46,080 --> 01:01:47,800
Speaker 3: that have been thirty three years old, so people have

1351
01:01:47,920 --> 01:01:50,560
Speaker 3: wanted at her age. Renees Eelwigger. When I started looking

1352
01:01:50,560 --> 01:01:53,520
Speaker 3: this up, she has the lowest win probability for all

1353
01:01:53,600 --> 01:01:56,800
Speaker 3: previous Best Actress winners. And when you look at the

1354
01:01:56,840 --> 01:02:01,000
Speaker 3: age range, I couldn't even believe this. Remember, Wigger, you

1355
01:02:01,040 --> 01:02:04,320
Speaker 3: complete me. Nobody between the age of fifty to fifty

1356
01:02:04,360 --> 01:02:07,080
Speaker 3: three has ever won Best Actress. She would be the

1357
01:02:07,120 --> 01:02:09,920
Speaker 3: first one ever. Only two winners in the history of

1358
01:02:09,960 --> 01:02:13,040
Speaker 3: the award have ever won and been between the ages

1359
01:02:13,080 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 3: of fifty to fifty nine. That is absolutely amazing. A

1360
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 3: Rivo for me forty to one, thirty to one, twenty

1361
01:02:20,880 --> 01:02:23,240
Speaker 3: five to one. You throw in the diversity, you throw

1362
01:02:23,280 --> 01:02:26,240
Speaker 3: in the age range, you throw in the historical trends

1363
01:02:26,240 --> 01:02:28,880
Speaker 3: of this category. This is the biggest dog of the night.

1364
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:31,160
Speaker 3: A Rivo's gonna pull it off, and we're all gonna

1365
01:02:31,200 --> 01:02:31,720
Speaker 3: go on vacation.

1366
01:02:32,200 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 5: So I'll start out by saying, again, the first thing

1367
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:36,640
Speaker 5: I always look at before I even kind of crunch

1368
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:38,920
Speaker 5: the metrics is it's just I want to see where

1369
01:02:38,920 --> 01:02:40,960
Speaker 5: the experts are. This one kind of scared me at

1370
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:45,360
Speaker 5: first because one hundred percent, every single expert on goald

1371
01:02:45,360 --> 01:02:48,200
Speaker 5: to be voted for Renees el Wigger for her role

1372
01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:51,160
Speaker 5: in Judy. And then you look at it and the

1373
01:02:51,200 --> 01:02:53,320
Speaker 5: reason again, the reason I always look to them is

1374
01:02:53,360 --> 01:02:55,720
Speaker 5: because it's not so much that they always one hundred

1375
01:02:55,720 --> 01:02:57,680
Speaker 5: percent or they're great at predicting the winner. They're usually

1376
01:02:57,760 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 5: in the about sixty six to ninety two percent range

1377
01:03:01,200 --> 01:03:04,480
Speaker 5: in terms of accurately predicting the winner, but they're close

1378
01:03:04,520 --> 01:03:07,560
Speaker 5: to ninety nine percent ninety eight ninety nine percent when

1379
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:10,480
Speaker 5: it comes to predicting the winner among the ones that

1380
01:03:10,560 --> 01:03:14,400
Speaker 5: they nominate. So if they're not picking anyone, if it

1381
01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:16,720
Speaker 5: gets like zero first place votes, you can pretty much

1382
01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:18,920
Speaker 5: count it out. So this is one that kind of

1383
01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:22,040
Speaker 5: it scared me at first, But interestingly enough, if you

1384
01:03:22,080 --> 01:03:24,439
Speaker 5: look at one of the only ones that they've gotten wrong,

1385
01:03:24,480 --> 01:03:27,240
Speaker 5: where they've no expert from gold there we has voted

1386
01:03:27,280 --> 01:03:30,640
Speaker 5: for a nominee that eventually won. It was last year

1387
01:03:31,040 --> 01:03:35,000
Speaker 5: it was Glenn Close with one hundred percent of expert votes,

1388
01:03:35,360 --> 01:03:39,040
Speaker 5: lost to Olivia Coleman from the favorite who had zero percent.

1389
01:03:39,160 --> 01:03:42,160
Speaker 5: No one because no one had anything. And guess what,

1390
01:03:42,480 --> 01:03:47,160
Speaker 5: Glenn Close over seventy years old, Olivia Coleman mid forties.

1391
01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:50,560
Speaker 1: Love Cynthia Rivo here, I'm excited all night.

1392
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:53,640
Speaker 3: It's going to be let's go Revo. Oh my.

1393
01:03:55,840 --> 01:03:58,600
Speaker 2: I want to say thank you to you. I have wanted

1394
01:03:58,640 --> 01:04:01,920
Speaker 2: more than anything to have respect. This time, I feel

1395
01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:05,040
Speaker 2: it and I can't deny the fact that you like me.

1396
01:04:05,880 --> 01:04:08,080
Speaker 2: Right now you'll like me.

1397
01:04:10,000 --> 01:04:13,000
Speaker 1: And now the word that we've all been waiting for.

1398
01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:15,560
Speaker 5: The one that gets the most action attracts the most

1399
01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 5: bets every single year. And just want to let you

1400
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:20,280
Speaker 5: guys know, I'm going to give the DraftKings odds for

1401
01:04:20,400 --> 01:04:23,200
Speaker 5: best Picture, but you can get ten to one odds

1402
01:04:23,360 --> 01:04:28,680
Speaker 5: on any OSCARS best Picture bet at DraftKings Sportsbook. It

1403
01:04:28,760 --> 01:04:32,320
Speaker 5: must be your first DraftKings Sportsbook wager. It is paid

1404
01:04:32,320 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 5: out in cash New Jersey, Indiana residents only. Check out

1405
01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:40,640
Speaker 5: DraftKings Sportsbook for more details.

1406
01:04:41,760 --> 01:04:43,600
Speaker 1: Thank Jim Well.

1407
01:04:44,080 --> 01:04:48,200
Speaker 6: And finally, it all comes down to this, the best

1408
01:04:48,200 --> 01:04:51,200
Speaker 6: picture and the moment.

1409
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:53,040
Speaker 1: Dejon nineteen seventeen.

1410
01:04:53,360 --> 01:04:57,720
Speaker 5: Now the clear front runner at minus two fifty. Then

1411
01:04:57,720 --> 01:04:59,960
Speaker 5: you have Parasite at three and a half to one.

1412
01:05:00,200 --> 01:05:02,160
Speaker 5: You have Once upon a Time in how We would

1413
01:05:02,200 --> 01:05:04,960
Speaker 5: at eight to one. You have Joker at twelve to one.

1414
01:05:05,280 --> 01:05:07,400
Speaker 5: You have the Irishman at fifty to one, you have

1415
01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:12,080
Speaker 5: Jojo Rabbit at sixty six to one, Little Women one

1416
01:05:12,160 --> 01:05:15,280
Speaker 5: hundred to one, Marriage Story one hundred to one, and

1417
01:05:15,320 --> 01:05:16,120
Speaker 5: then Ford v.

1418
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 1: Ferrari at two fifty to one, and Oshka goes to Colin.

1419
01:05:25,480 --> 01:05:27,160
Speaker 1: I'll kick it to you first. Because this is a

1420
01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:29,440
Speaker 1: it's somewhat of a wide open race. What are you

1421
01:05:29,480 --> 01:05:30,400
Speaker 1: kind of feeling like here?

1422
01:05:30,600 --> 01:05:32,240
Speaker 3: I think it's not only just a wide open race.

1423
01:05:32,280 --> 01:05:34,440
Speaker 3: You have to think about what the voting process is,

1424
01:05:34,600 --> 01:05:37,160
Speaker 3: right Like, so they rank, they just don't send in

1425
01:05:37,200 --> 01:05:39,240
Speaker 3: like this is my winner. Here you go, this is

1426
01:05:39,280 --> 01:05:42,320
Speaker 3: my vote. They ranked them one through whatever. So you

1427
01:05:42,360 --> 01:05:45,120
Speaker 3: could have a movie that potentially gets enough votes to

1428
01:05:45,120 --> 01:05:47,920
Speaker 3: be considered for Best Picture in the process, but it

1429
01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:50,360
Speaker 3: could do a clean sweep of like second place and

1430
01:05:50,400 --> 01:05:53,760
Speaker 3: still win Best Picture. So knowing that second place a

1431
01:05:53,800 --> 01:05:56,280
Speaker 3: whole bowlo to second place votes can get you Best Picture,

1432
01:05:56,600 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 3: this is considered the category where you pick the movie

1433
01:05:59,520 --> 01:06:03,080
Speaker 3: that you the least. As you know, let's talk about

1434
01:06:03,080 --> 01:06:06,320
Speaker 3: the biggest upsets and Best Picture history. Three of the

1435
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:08,400
Speaker 3: biggest upsets and Best Picture have come in the last

1436
01:06:08,440 --> 01:06:12,760
Speaker 3: fifteen years. Twenty sixteen, Moonlight over La La Land. I'm sorry, No,

1437
01:06:12,920 --> 01:06:16,280
Speaker 3: there's a mistake. There's a mistake, Moonlight. You guys won

1438
01:06:16,360 --> 01:06:16,840
Speaker 3: Best Picture.

1439
01:06:17,640 --> 01:06:18,400
Speaker 1: This is not a joke.

1440
01:06:19,120 --> 01:06:19,919
Speaker 3: This is not a joke.

1441
01:06:19,920 --> 01:06:22,560
Speaker 1: I'm afraid they read the wrong thinger, This is not

1442
01:06:22,640 --> 01:06:23,080
Speaker 1: a joke.

1443
01:06:23,240 --> 01:06:27,680
Speaker 3: Moonlight has won Best Picture twenty fifteen, Spylight over The Revenant.

1444
01:06:27,720 --> 01:06:30,520
Speaker 3: In two thousand and five, Crash over Broke Back. Moonlight

1445
01:06:30,600 --> 01:06:33,760
Speaker 3: is the only film in history to win Best Picture

1446
01:06:33,840 --> 01:06:37,240
Speaker 3: after being denied the honor by BAFTA Writers Guild SAG,

1447
01:06:37,320 --> 01:06:41,360
Speaker 3: American Cinema Editors, Directors Guild, and Producers Guild. And you

1448
01:06:41,400 --> 01:06:43,560
Speaker 3: know why, because they didn't. They got a bunch of

1449
01:06:43,600 --> 01:06:45,880
Speaker 3: second and third place votes on ballots and still had

1450
01:06:46,000 --> 01:06:48,600
Speaker 3: enough tally at the end to win the whole thing.

1451
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:50,520
Speaker 3: I mean, that is an amazing stat to not pull

1452
01:06:50,560 --> 01:06:52,440
Speaker 3: Best Picture from any of those guilds and still win

1453
01:06:52,480 --> 01:06:55,400
Speaker 3: it at the Academy Awards. Only Annie Hall has ever

1454
01:06:55,440 --> 01:06:59,560
Speaker 3: won Best Picture with an average nomination score of minus

1455
01:06:59,560 --> 01:07:02,440
Speaker 3: one point six. So let's talk about that again, average

1456
01:07:02,440 --> 01:07:05,640
Speaker 3: nomination score. So take up all the best pictures in

1457
01:07:05,640 --> 01:07:09,640
Speaker 3: this category, what their average nomination is across the entire field,

1458
01:07:09,920 --> 01:07:11,920
Speaker 3: and then you can't win Best Picture if you have

1459
01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:14,280
Speaker 3: a negative one point six. So if you look at that,

1460
01:07:14,440 --> 01:07:17,000
Speaker 3: the average nomination score for these pictures is seven point

1461
01:07:17,040 --> 01:07:19,360
Speaker 3: sixty six. That knocks out out every member in the

1462
01:07:19,360 --> 01:07:22,080
Speaker 3: field except nineteen seventeen, Once upon a Time in Hollywood,

1463
01:07:22,120 --> 01:07:24,480
Speaker 3: Joker and Irishman. Now we're gonna throw Irishman out. It's

1464
01:07:24,480 --> 01:07:27,840
Speaker 3: a Netflix movie. Ninety three percent of Best Picture winners

1465
01:07:27,840 --> 01:07:30,640
Speaker 3: have had a Best Director nomination, eighty nine percent have

1466
01:07:30,720 --> 01:07:33,000
Speaker 3: had a screenplay nom and eighty two percent have had

1467
01:07:33,000 --> 01:07:36,000
Speaker 3: a Best Editing nomination. Irishman Joker in Parasite got all

1468
01:07:36,000 --> 01:07:38,480
Speaker 3: three of those, while nineteen seventeen is going to win Director.

1469
01:07:38,560 --> 01:07:40,400
Speaker 3: We sam ind as we said, but they have no

1470
01:07:40,400 --> 01:07:42,320
Speaker 3: nomination for Best Editing, and that scares me a lot

1471
01:07:42,360 --> 01:07:43,800
Speaker 3: because it's one of the grand slams that you got

1472
01:07:43,800 --> 01:07:46,160
Speaker 3: to have. Nineteen seventeen would be the first picture to

1473
01:07:46,200 --> 01:07:49,000
Speaker 3: win Best Picture without a nomination of Best Acting or

1474
01:07:49,040 --> 01:07:52,360
Speaker 3: Best Film Editing. Since nineteen thirty four, when editing became

1475
01:07:52,360 --> 01:07:55,440
Speaker 3: a category. Films that look like potential Best Picture front

1476
01:07:55,480 --> 01:07:57,920
Speaker 3: runners but were given snub for writing in the last

1477
01:07:57,920 --> 01:08:01,800
Speaker 3: few years ended up losing top Oscar, Revenant, Dunkirk, No

1478
01:08:01,880 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 3: Film since Titanic is one Best Picture without a writing nomination,

1479
01:08:05,120 --> 01:08:07,600
Speaker 3: so it's a huge hurdle for Sam Mendez in nineteen seventeen,

1480
01:08:07,840 --> 01:08:10,200
Speaker 3: I got nineteen seventeen and plus two fifty. I wouldn't

1481
01:08:10,240 --> 01:08:12,560
Speaker 3: buy it as a favorite at all. Right now, considering

1482
01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:15,560
Speaker 3: all of these statistics, especially with the editing portion of this,

1483
01:08:16,200 --> 01:08:19,320
Speaker 3: Hollywood was nominated for three of the Grand Slams writing, directing,

1484
01:08:19,320 --> 01:08:22,080
Speaker 3: and acting. No editing. Nineteen seventeen is very similar to

1485
01:08:22,120 --> 01:08:25,679
Speaker 3: the Revenant. Came on around late Christmas release, the Golden

1486
01:08:25,680 --> 01:08:28,280
Speaker 3: Globes picked it up as Best Picture. Oscar still went

1487
01:08:28,320 --> 01:08:30,479
Speaker 3: to Spotlight over over Revenant. People are going to knock

1488
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:33,080
Speaker 3: nineteen seventeen for no editing award and a lack of dialogue.

1489
01:08:33,120 --> 01:08:35,360
Speaker 3: People will knock Parasite for being a foreign film and

1490
01:08:35,400 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 3: a very low number of total nominees for Best Picture.

1491
01:08:38,240 --> 01:08:40,200
Speaker 3: While we may not vote for the best movie, which

1492
01:08:40,240 --> 01:08:43,080
Speaker 3: movie can generate enough top three votes? Right what is

1493
01:08:43,120 --> 01:08:46,120
Speaker 3: the movie that I least hate, and I think Hollywood

1494
01:08:46,160 --> 01:08:47,800
Speaker 3: is the one that's very capable of that. With an

1495
01:08:47,800 --> 01:08:49,760
Speaker 3: outside shot to Joker, I think some people are going

1496
01:08:49,800 --> 01:08:52,280
Speaker 3: to hate that. There's a reasonable argument that nineteen seventeen

1497
01:08:52,280 --> 01:08:54,040
Speaker 3: of Parasite are going to get left out. One's a

1498
01:08:54,040 --> 01:08:56,680
Speaker 3: foreign film, one doesn't have any editing, one doesn't have

1499
01:08:56,680 --> 01:08:59,960
Speaker 3: any acting. There's a good case for Joker and hollywod

1500
01:09:00,320 --> 01:09:02,920
Speaker 3: can generate enough second and third place votes that they

1501
01:09:02,920 --> 01:09:05,080
Speaker 3: can win this thing. So my plan of attack is

1502
01:09:05,120 --> 01:09:07,599
Speaker 3: to just wait, let the numbers get inflated, and I

1503
01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:10,080
Speaker 3: absolutely think with the number of nominations that Hollywood and

1504
01:09:10,160 --> 01:09:13,360
Speaker 3: Joker has they can generate the least hatred in the

1505
01:09:13,439 --> 01:09:14,880
Speaker 3: votes and actually win this thing.

1506
01:09:15,200 --> 01:09:17,320
Speaker 6: Yeah, Colin, I think that's a very fair and compelling

1507
01:09:17,400 --> 01:09:20,080
Speaker 6: argument about once upon a time in Joker having that

1508
01:09:20,400 --> 01:09:24,240
Speaker 6: universal appeal across you know, those two to three place votes,

1509
01:09:24,400 --> 01:09:26,639
Speaker 6: and I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if either of them won.

1510
01:09:26,840 --> 01:09:28,880
Speaker 6: But I will say that the rapid growth of the

1511
01:09:28,960 --> 01:09:31,519
Speaker 6: voting body, which we mentioned earlier, over the past five

1512
01:09:31,600 --> 01:09:34,160
Speaker 6: years specifically makes me think that this could be the

1513
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:37,200
Speaker 6: year that a foreign film has a chance at Best Picture.

1514
01:09:37,360 --> 01:09:39,360
Speaker 6: You know, we talked about this earlier as well. Everyone

1515
01:09:39,439 --> 01:09:42,200
Speaker 6: thought that film would be Romo last year, but there

1516
01:09:42,360 --> 01:09:45,439
Speaker 6: was an additional hurdle, which was the fact that it

1517
01:09:45,479 --> 01:09:47,360
Speaker 6: was a Netflix film. And while I don't think that

1518
01:09:47,400 --> 01:09:51,160
Speaker 6: the Academy's necessarily fading Netflix films, I do think that

1519
01:09:51,200 --> 01:09:54,640
Speaker 6: they place a premium on the theater going experience, and

1520
01:09:54,680 --> 01:09:56,680
Speaker 6: while that might sound a little bit silly, I do

1521
01:09:56,720 --> 01:09:59,040
Speaker 6: think it could factor in here. As far as the

1522
01:09:59,040 --> 01:10:01,720
Speaker 6: growth of the voting body. Following Oscar so White in

1523
01:10:01,800 --> 01:10:05,760
Speaker 6: twenty fifteen, they almost doubled their new members year over year,

1524
01:10:05,840 --> 01:10:08,080
Speaker 6: and since then have been growing at a similar rate.

1525
01:10:08,479 --> 01:10:10,720
Speaker 6: And the year after they initially did that, that was

1526
01:10:10,760 --> 01:10:13,679
Speaker 6: a year of Moonlight One in upset of La La Land,

1527
01:10:13,880 --> 01:10:17,120
Speaker 6: which at the time looked poised to win because it

1528
01:10:17,160 --> 01:10:17,320
Speaker 6: was a.

1529
01:10:17,280 --> 01:10:18,320
Speaker 1: Classic Oscar pick.

1530
01:10:18,720 --> 01:10:20,840
Speaker 6: Now, I don't exactly know how to account for shape

1531
01:10:20,840 --> 01:10:23,000
Speaker 6: of Water in Green Book winning over the past couple

1532
01:10:23,040 --> 01:10:25,800
Speaker 6: of years, but I do know this, the Academy is

1533
01:10:26,080 --> 01:10:28,519
Speaker 6: getting increasingly unpredictable.

1534
01:10:28,240 --> 01:10:29,160
Speaker 1: With that growth.

1535
01:10:29,400 --> 01:10:31,519
Speaker 6: All that to say, I have an outside hope that

1536
01:10:31,800 --> 01:10:36,480
Speaker 6: they will overcome that one inch barrier. Bong June Hoe mentioned.

1537
01:10:39,479 --> 01:10:42,960
Speaker 6: Once you overcome the one inch tall barrier of subtitles,

1538
01:10:43,120 --> 01:10:45,839
Speaker 6: you will be introduced to so many more amazing films,

1539
01:10:46,400 --> 01:10:48,160
Speaker 6: and I do think there's a chance that this can

1540
01:10:48,160 --> 01:10:49,680
Speaker 6: go to Parasite, which is why I bet it at

1541
01:10:49,680 --> 01:10:51,920
Speaker 6: plus four to fifty to win last month. That's an

1542
01:10:51,920 --> 01:10:55,880
Speaker 6: implied probability of eighteen point two percent, and like we've mentioned,

1543
01:10:55,880 --> 01:10:58,439
Speaker 6: this is a wide open race, so I still think

1544
01:10:58,439 --> 01:11:00,640
Speaker 6: that there's value on it plus three fifty, which you

1545
01:11:00,640 --> 01:11:02,560
Speaker 6: can get at DraftKings, and I'd bet it all the

1546
01:11:02,600 --> 01:11:05,080
Speaker 6: way down to plus two hundred. Like Colin, I did

1547
01:11:05,120 --> 01:11:08,200
Speaker 6: also take nineteen seventeen at plus money last month just

1548
01:11:08,240 --> 01:11:10,679
Speaker 6: because of the value, but I don't think I definitely

1549
01:11:10,720 --> 01:11:13,040
Speaker 6: wouldn't take it now that it's the favorite at minus

1550
01:11:13,120 --> 01:11:13,679
Speaker 6: two fifty.

1551
01:11:14,040 --> 01:11:18,000
Speaker 7: Katie, I completely agree that the Academy is getting increasingly unpredictable,

1552
01:11:18,360 --> 01:11:21,040
Speaker 7: especially with this category. Like Colin mentioned, this is a

1553
01:11:21,040 --> 01:11:23,439
Speaker 7: category where we have seen several major upsets in the

1554
01:11:23,520 --> 01:11:27,400
Speaker 7: last few years. Everybody in the office is taking nineteen seventeen,

1555
01:11:27,760 --> 01:11:30,400
Speaker 7: but I'm putting my money on Parasite. In my opinion,

1556
01:11:30,400 --> 01:11:33,120
Speaker 7: it's a near perfect film, and I agree that the

1557
01:11:33,120 --> 01:11:35,000
Speaker 7: theatrical release could play in its favor.

1558
01:11:35,040 --> 01:11:35,479
Speaker 8: This year.

1559
01:11:35,720 --> 01:11:38,439
Speaker 7: There are some fantastic films in this category, but overall,

1560
01:11:38,479 --> 01:11:41,440
Speaker 7: I do think it's down to nineteen seventeen and Parasite.

1561
01:11:41,560 --> 01:11:44,280
Speaker 7: While like Colin mentioned, they do have their quote flaws

1562
01:11:44,280 --> 01:11:46,640
Speaker 7: when it comes to predicting the winner, Parasite being a

1563
01:11:46,640 --> 01:11:50,960
Speaker 7: foreign film with subtitles, nineteen seventeen's lack of editing and dialogue,

1564
01:11:51,720 --> 01:11:54,400
Speaker 7: though the continuous shot editing, like we mentioned earlier, worked

1565
01:11:54,400 --> 01:11:58,680
Speaker 7: for Birdman. I have heard rumors through some articles that

1566
01:11:59,000 --> 01:12:01,800
Speaker 7: the Academy is reported about twenty voters have not even

1567
01:12:01,880 --> 01:12:04,599
Speaker 7: watched Parasite yet. She does worry me a little bit,

1568
01:12:05,160 --> 01:12:08,280
Speaker 7: and it's also very frustrating that the subtitles are getting

1569
01:12:08,320 --> 01:12:09,760
Speaker 7: in the way of some people viewing this.

1570
01:12:10,000 --> 01:12:11,479
Speaker 8: But I think that if the.

1571
01:12:11,520 --> 01:12:14,559
Speaker 7: Voters can get past the subtitles, Parasite will take it.

1572
01:12:14,640 --> 01:12:17,240
Speaker 7: The story in general, the acting, the way that they've

1573
01:12:17,479 --> 01:12:20,320
Speaker 7: kind of crafted this story in the direction, I think

1574
01:12:20,320 --> 01:12:24,160
Speaker 7: that it is definitely a Best Picture. I'm hoping that

1575
01:12:24,200 --> 01:12:26,519
Speaker 7: with so many quote underdog films winning.

1576
01:12:26,320 --> 01:12:29,200
Speaker 8: Best Picture over the years, that this will do the same.

1577
01:12:29,520 --> 01:12:31,200
Speaker 6: And just for context on how worth it it is.

1578
01:12:31,800 --> 01:12:35,400
Speaker 6: This has a ninety three percent audience score on Rotten tomatoes.

1579
01:12:35,439 --> 01:12:36,639
Speaker 1: Now, I don't want to get that too much weight,

1580
01:12:36,640 --> 01:12:37,320
Speaker 1: but between.

1581
01:12:37,040 --> 01:12:39,720
Speaker 6: The ninety three audience and the ninety nine tomato meter,

1582
01:12:40,080 --> 01:12:42,760
Speaker 6: that's that's really says everything you need to know about

1583
01:12:42,760 --> 01:12:45,200
Speaker 6: how good this movie is and how much places around it.

1584
01:12:45,479 --> 01:12:48,640
Speaker 5: And like, like, you look at this movie and Parasite

1585
01:12:48,720 --> 01:12:50,240
Speaker 5: is loved by audiences.

1586
01:12:50,479 --> 01:12:51,680
Speaker 1: Some people haven't watched it yet.

1587
01:12:51,680 --> 01:12:54,840
Speaker 5: That actually might benefit if they do watch it vote

1588
01:12:54,880 --> 01:12:57,320
Speaker 5: you know they like late in the process, that might

1589
01:12:57,400 --> 01:12:59,720
Speaker 5: be another benefit. But then you just look at you

1590
01:12:59,760 --> 01:13:01,479
Speaker 5: also look at Okay, the experts, A lot of these

1591
01:13:01,520 --> 01:13:02,759
Speaker 5: guys are in the industry.

1592
01:13:02,800 --> 01:13:04,600
Speaker 1: They do this every year. They make these predictions.

1593
01:13:05,080 --> 01:13:08,519
Speaker 5: They like Parasite about twenty nine percent or you know,

1594
01:13:08,520 --> 01:13:09,479
Speaker 5: you would bet that down.

1595
01:13:09,400 --> 01:13:11,400
Speaker 1: To about plus two fifty that's the implied odds.

1596
01:13:11,439 --> 01:13:13,320
Speaker 5: Well, it's still at plus three fifty, so there's still

1597
01:13:13,320 --> 01:13:15,080
Speaker 5: about one hundred cents of value here.

1598
01:13:15,280 --> 01:13:17,960
Speaker 1: It's a great value, great audience score.

1599
01:13:17,960 --> 01:13:20,519
Speaker 5: And I think Colin something you said earlier, when you

1600
01:13:20,520 --> 01:13:21,920
Speaker 5: know you're how are you going to attack this? You

1601
01:13:22,000 --> 01:13:23,360
Speaker 5: are you going to go with the favorite or are

1602
01:13:23,400 --> 01:13:26,000
Speaker 5: you going to try to look at some of the underdogs.

1603
01:13:26,000 --> 01:13:28,760
Speaker 5: In last year I think was a perfect example where

1604
01:13:28,920 --> 01:13:30,639
Speaker 5: you know, I actually wrote a peace for Action Network,

1605
01:13:30,720 --> 01:13:32,479
Speaker 5: and I'll be doing it again on kind of all

1606
01:13:32,560 --> 01:13:35,719
Speaker 5: these these different awards. And I said, for Best Picture,

1607
01:13:36,080 --> 01:13:38,400
Speaker 5: I think you got a fade Roma, which was the favorite.

1608
01:13:38,479 --> 01:13:40,240
Speaker 5: You put some down on Green Book, and you have

1609
01:13:40,360 --> 01:13:42,240
Speaker 5: you have a little bit on Black Panther because Black

1610
01:13:42,240 --> 01:13:44,519
Speaker 5: Panther is this huge underdog but a couple getting some

1611
01:13:44,520 --> 01:13:46,479
Speaker 5: love from the experts there, and the odds were just

1612
01:13:46,680 --> 01:13:48,639
Speaker 5: to where you could only put a couple of dollars

1613
01:13:48,680 --> 01:13:51,240
Speaker 5: there and you would kind of profit regardless as long

1614
01:13:51,280 --> 01:13:53,080
Speaker 5: as a favorite law. I think this is kind of

1615
01:13:53,560 --> 01:13:57,080
Speaker 5: a similar situation where you know there's still about a

1616
01:13:57,240 --> 01:13:59,400
Speaker 5: you know, there's still a lot of value on parasite.

1617
01:13:59,479 --> 01:14:01,280
Speaker 1: You know you can, yeah, you should, it's a good value.

1618
01:14:01,320 --> 01:14:03,040
Speaker 5: I think down to plus two to fifty that might

1619
01:14:03,080 --> 01:14:06,320
Speaker 5: even increase in terms of you know what you can

1620
01:14:06,360 --> 01:14:08,479
Speaker 5: bet that down to and still feel like you're getting

1621
01:14:08,520 --> 01:14:11,000
Speaker 5: better odds than the books given you.

1622
01:14:11,200 --> 01:14:12,320
Speaker 1: And then you know you.

1623
01:14:12,360 --> 01:14:15,400
Speaker 5: Have Joker here and at twelve to one even you

1624
01:14:15,400 --> 01:14:16,960
Speaker 5: know you can just put a tiny bit down on

1625
01:14:17,000 --> 01:14:20,280
Speaker 5: that if you're fading nineteen seventeen and then once upon

1626
01:14:20,320 --> 01:14:23,000
Speaker 5: a time in Hollywood about eleven percent of the experts

1627
01:14:23,360 --> 01:14:25,840
Speaker 5: you know, like that one to win. And that's pretty

1628
01:14:25,880 --> 01:14:27,519
Speaker 5: much in why and so you have a lot you

1629
01:14:27,520 --> 01:14:30,639
Speaker 5: know of, plus money, you know, underdogs here at pretty

1630
01:14:30,680 --> 01:14:33,320
Speaker 5: good odds to where the best most likely one to

1631
01:14:33,360 --> 01:14:36,160
Speaker 5: pull the upset, you're still getting major value on that.

1632
01:14:36,280 --> 01:14:37,720
Speaker 1: In Paris, I think we.

1633
01:14:37,680 --> 01:14:39,479
Speaker 3: All agree that there's only four movies that can win

1634
01:14:39,520 --> 01:14:42,960
Speaker 3: this category, right, nineteen seventeen, Parasite, Once Upon a Time

1635
01:14:43,000 --> 01:14:44,920
Speaker 3: and Joker, and two of those are at least eight

1636
01:14:44,920 --> 01:14:47,479
Speaker 3: to one or better odds, right, And I mean, so

1637
01:14:47,520 --> 01:14:49,080
Speaker 3: I think that's my plan of attackers. You want to

1638
01:14:49,080 --> 01:14:50,519
Speaker 3: give me eight to one on one of the four films,

1639
01:14:50,560 --> 01:14:52,479
Speaker 3: I think as a legit shot of winning this, I'll

1640
01:14:52,520 --> 01:14:54,160
Speaker 3: hit it. And you know, if you want to split

1641
01:14:54,160 --> 01:14:56,120
Speaker 3: it up into quarter units or whatever, if you're keeping

1642
01:14:56,120 --> 01:14:57,960
Speaker 3: track of how much money you're spending. I don't think

1643
01:14:58,080 --> 01:15:01,600
Speaker 3: nineteen seventeen is the favorite, even though it's my personal favorite.

1644
01:15:01,640 --> 01:15:03,599
Speaker 3: Like the movie is sentthing on an emotional roller coaster

1645
01:15:03,680 --> 01:15:05,559
Speaker 3: and after it, I felt more fulfilled walking out of

1646
01:15:05,560 --> 01:15:07,320
Speaker 3: a movie than I've seen in years. I don't think

1647
01:15:07,320 --> 01:15:09,639
Speaker 3: it's gonna win. It's the editing aspect. I just think

1648
01:15:09,640 --> 01:15:12,280
Speaker 3: it's a great four horse race, and anyone of them

1649
01:15:12,320 --> 01:15:13,400
Speaker 3: can pull it. If you want to give me eight

1650
01:15:13,439 --> 01:15:15,360
Speaker 3: to one odds on any of those horses, I'm gonna

1651
01:15:15,360 --> 01:15:15,640
Speaker 3: take it.

1652
01:15:15,720 --> 01:15:17,000
Speaker 5: This is how you have to attack it, same as

1653
01:15:17,080 --> 01:15:21,679
Speaker 5: last year. Fade the favorite and place wagers on the underdogs.

1654
01:15:21,720 --> 01:15:23,320
Speaker 5: And I see what you're saying, Colin with going with

1655
01:15:23,320 --> 01:15:24,960
Speaker 5: the long shots, but I think you can actually hedge

1656
01:15:25,000 --> 01:15:27,040
Speaker 5: this in such a way that you're still getting value

1657
01:15:27,080 --> 01:15:29,960
Speaker 5: from Parasite, because according to the experts, this is the

1658
01:15:29,960 --> 01:15:32,360
Speaker 5: one where the books are kind of underrating it the most.

1659
01:15:32,479 --> 01:15:34,840
Speaker 5: So you know, the other two are kind of you know,

1660
01:15:34,880 --> 01:15:37,960
Speaker 5: they're longer, they have longer odds, but essentially those odds

1661
01:15:38,000 --> 01:15:40,320
Speaker 5: are either in line or would have inflated, you know,

1662
01:15:40,360 --> 01:15:41,920
Speaker 5: based on if you kind of look at.

1663
01:15:41,800 --> 01:15:43,120
Speaker 1: It from what the experts are thinking here.

1664
01:15:43,200 --> 01:15:45,240
Speaker 5: So I've kind of been following them for a few

1665
01:15:45,280 --> 01:15:47,639
Speaker 5: years and I've nailed the Moonlight, you know, Green Book,

1666
01:15:47,960 --> 01:15:49,800
Speaker 5: and Shape or Water, and with the help of them,

1667
01:15:49,800 --> 01:15:52,759
Speaker 5: it's usually the second place a lot of time, expert

1668
01:15:52,800 --> 01:15:55,120
Speaker 5: vote that ends up being the winner and the favorite

1669
01:15:55,200 --> 01:15:57,360
Speaker 5: is overrated, and this year it's Parasite. So I think

1670
01:15:57,880 --> 01:15:59,880
Speaker 5: I love Parasite is my top bet. But yeah, if

1671
01:16:00,080 --> 01:16:04,360
Speaker 5: we hedging with Hollywood and and Joker, we have a.

1672
01:16:04,400 --> 01:16:06,600
Speaker 7: Revo on the front of our shirts and Parasite on

1673
01:16:06,640 --> 01:16:07,000
Speaker 7: the back.

1674
01:16:08,000 --> 01:16:11,400
Speaker 5: Yes, yeah, and Colin, I'll actually use in nineteen seventeen

1675
01:16:11,439 --> 01:16:14,080
Speaker 5: was your favorite film? I mean to me it was Parasite,

1676
01:16:14,120 --> 01:16:17,480
Speaker 5: Like I was actually more emotionally compelled by Parasite.

1677
01:16:17,479 --> 01:16:19,719
Speaker 3: But do you think the ending, like with nineteen seventeen

1678
01:16:19,960 --> 01:16:22,240
Speaker 3: from a movie standpoint, like I walked out, I thought

1679
01:16:22,240 --> 01:16:25,320
Speaker 3: it was fantastic. But Parasite, I thought for ninety percent

1680
01:16:25,360 --> 01:16:27,920
Speaker 3: of the movie was done perfectly, and then the ending

1681
01:16:27,960 --> 01:16:31,400
Speaker 3: it turns into knives out. I mean, there's so much

1682
01:16:31,439 --> 01:16:33,280
Speaker 3: blood going everywhere, Like the amount of murders at the

1683
01:16:33,360 --> 01:16:34,960
Speaker 3: end of it was where I knew there was blood coming.

1684
01:16:35,200 --> 01:16:37,599
Speaker 3: I knew something bad was coming. I didn't know everybody

1685
01:16:37,640 --> 01:16:38,599
Speaker 3: was going to get the shift.

1686
01:16:38,760 --> 01:16:40,439
Speaker 5: One thing I'll say about Parasite and the ending, and

1687
01:16:40,520 --> 01:16:42,120
Speaker 5: we should actually talk a little bit about this before

1688
01:16:42,160 --> 01:16:43,840
Speaker 5: we get out of here, just for people who maybe

1689
01:16:43,880 --> 01:16:46,439
Speaker 5: haven't seen all of these movies, or at least all

1690
01:16:46,439 --> 01:16:49,240
Speaker 5: of the contenders. The ending for Parasite I thought was

1691
01:16:49,240 --> 01:16:51,320
Speaker 5: done extremely well. I thought that's part of the reason

1692
01:16:51,360 --> 01:16:53,720
Speaker 5: I did like the movie so much. I think, you know,

1693
01:16:54,160 --> 01:16:55,960
Speaker 5: it was kind of you didn't know what to expect

1694
01:16:56,120 --> 01:16:58,160
Speaker 5: in Parasite. It kind of led you to a few

1695
01:16:58,160 --> 01:16:59,479
Speaker 5: different paths. You didn't know if it was going to

1696
01:16:59,520 --> 01:17:02,000
Speaker 5: be one of these kind of sad dramas that just

1697
01:17:02,080 --> 01:17:04,519
Speaker 5: kind of unfolded on any real crazy action, or you

1698
01:17:04,840 --> 01:17:06,240
Speaker 5: didn't know if it was going to be it was

1699
01:17:06,320 --> 01:17:07,920
Speaker 5: kind of a comedy. At one point I thought it

1700
01:17:07,960 --> 01:17:08,320
Speaker 5: was great.

1701
01:17:08,439 --> 01:17:10,479
Speaker 6: This is absolutely why I think this has a really

1702
01:17:10,479 --> 01:17:13,280
Speaker 6: good shot at actually winning Best Picture, because while it

1703
01:17:13,439 --> 01:17:17,320
Speaker 6: is a foreign language and international film, it has two

1704
01:17:17,439 --> 01:17:21,080
Speaker 6: threads that everybody can connect to. One. It's a great

1705
01:17:21,080 --> 01:17:23,559
Speaker 6: commentary on class, which no matter where you fall on

1706
01:17:23,600 --> 01:17:26,479
Speaker 6: the socioeconomic spectrum, I feel like something you can relate

1707
01:17:26,520 --> 01:17:29,679
Speaker 6: to in it, and the ending sticks with you forever

1708
01:17:29,760 --> 01:17:30,599
Speaker 6: to your point, Raymond.

1709
01:17:30,640 --> 01:17:31,800
Speaker 1: After I saw it, all I.

1710
01:17:31,760 --> 01:17:34,200
Speaker 6: Did for the next week was read think pieces about

1711
01:17:34,200 --> 01:17:36,560
Speaker 6: it because I was trying to process it. It was insane.

1712
01:17:36,800 --> 01:17:39,759
Speaker 6: Although I will say that an ending that also struck

1713
01:17:39,760 --> 01:17:41,320
Speaker 6: with me from this year was Once upon a Time.

1714
01:17:41,560 --> 01:17:43,360
Speaker 6: It took a lot longer to get there than it

1715
01:17:43,360 --> 01:17:46,000
Speaker 6: did in Parasite, just because of the length of the movie,

1716
01:17:46,080 --> 01:17:49,080
Speaker 6: and obviously we were enjoying Brad Pitt driving a convertible

1717
01:17:49,080 --> 01:17:52,160
Speaker 6: around southern California, which was never going to be mad about,

1718
01:17:55,120 --> 01:17:57,479
Speaker 6: never going to be mad about that. However, that ending

1719
01:17:57,600 --> 01:18:00,679
Speaker 6: also shook me. You knew going into it to have

1720
01:18:00,880 --> 01:18:04,160
Speaker 6: ties to the Manson family, but I didn't know how

1721
01:18:04,200 --> 01:18:07,559
Speaker 6: it was going to manifest itself beyond Brad Pitt hanging

1722
01:18:07,600 --> 01:18:10,880
Speaker 6: out with these weird girls on the compound. And when

1723
01:18:10,880 --> 01:18:12,360
Speaker 6: you finally got to the ending of that movie, that

1724
01:18:12,360 --> 01:18:13,400
Speaker 6: one also really stocked with me.

1725
01:18:13,800 --> 01:18:16,160
Speaker 7: I think the end of Parasite to me, did what

1726
01:18:16,240 --> 01:18:19,200
Speaker 7: once upon a time wanted to. And I also think

1727
01:18:19,240 --> 01:18:22,000
Speaker 7: an interesting part about Parasite is like it is written

1728
01:18:22,040 --> 01:18:24,360
Speaker 7: and performed in such a way that you feel for

1729
01:18:24,520 --> 01:18:27,360
Speaker 7: these people who are taking advantage of this other family.

1730
01:18:27,760 --> 01:18:30,240
Speaker 7: I think it's really interesting the way that they kind

1731
01:18:30,280 --> 01:18:32,760
Speaker 7: of use the power dynamics and the class struggle to

1732
01:18:32,840 --> 01:18:35,040
Speaker 7: make you feel for each character in a different way.

1733
01:18:35,360 --> 01:18:37,760
Speaker 7: With one spent a time in Hollywood, I felt like

1734
01:18:37,800 --> 01:18:41,200
Speaker 7: it was two different stories trying to be told. I

1735
01:18:41,280 --> 01:18:44,720
Speaker 7: didn't like the way that Tarantino executed it because to me,

1736
01:18:44,960 --> 01:18:47,880
Speaker 7: I would rather have seen the story of old Hollywood

1737
01:18:48,160 --> 01:18:51,320
Speaker 7: or the story of the Mansons. I'm not as interested

1738
01:18:51,520 --> 01:18:54,200
Speaker 7: in the make believe that they did at the end

1739
01:18:54,280 --> 01:18:57,200
Speaker 7: because I don't think they really earned it. It felt

1740
01:18:57,200 --> 01:19:00,400
Speaker 7: to me like a kind of disjointed story leading to it,

1741
01:19:00,439 --> 01:19:02,960
Speaker 7: and so I was really personally frustrated by the end

1742
01:19:03,000 --> 01:19:05,679
Speaker 7: of it because while I thought it was an interesting

1743
01:19:05,760 --> 01:19:08,120
Speaker 7: take to kind of change history the way he did,

1744
01:19:08,400 --> 01:19:12,040
Speaker 7: I didn't feel like he focused enough on one versus

1745
01:19:12,040 --> 01:19:14,360
Speaker 7: the other to warrant that ending.

1746
01:19:14,840 --> 01:19:16,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree.

1747
01:19:16,200 --> 01:19:19,000
Speaker 5: I think that's a really good point that if Tarantino

1748
01:19:19,120 --> 01:19:22,160
Speaker 5: had instead of kind of showing these two alternate stories

1749
01:19:22,160 --> 01:19:24,720
Speaker 5: and ending up with this was an over three hour

1750
01:19:24,760 --> 01:19:28,040
Speaker 5: film essentially, like if he had just kind of showed

1751
01:19:28,080 --> 01:19:30,360
Speaker 5: the audience, maybe he could have done it in any

1752
01:19:30,600 --> 01:19:32,599
Speaker 5: number of creative ways, whether it was you know, showing

1753
01:19:32,600 --> 01:19:34,799
Speaker 5: it on screen or just kind of showing newspaper headlines

1754
01:19:34,840 --> 01:19:37,280
Speaker 5: and just more details about what happened to Sharon Tate,

1755
01:19:37,720 --> 01:19:40,479
Speaker 5: Margot Robbie's character and how she was murdered, so that you.

1756
01:19:40,479 --> 01:19:44,000
Speaker 1: Had the audience kind of fearing that the entire movie.

1757
01:19:44,479 --> 01:19:46,960
Speaker 5: Then I think the movie is a lot better, but

1758
01:19:47,000 --> 01:19:49,280
Speaker 5: the fact that, like you know, you can watch that

1759
01:19:49,360 --> 01:19:52,559
Speaker 5: movie having not much knowledge about the Sharon Tate murder,

1760
01:19:52,720 --> 01:19:53,960
Speaker 5: you don't really know what the hell's going on, and

1761
01:19:54,000 --> 01:19:57,760
Speaker 5: you don't necessarily know the significance behind the interactions in

1762
01:19:58,040 --> 01:20:01,599
Speaker 5: the movie with Brad Pitt and the Mansons. So I

1763
01:20:01,600 --> 01:20:03,519
Speaker 5: do think I do agree that that took away from it,

1764
01:20:03,560 --> 01:20:06,000
Speaker 5: and that's kind of why I know, Katie you disagree,

1765
01:20:06,040 --> 01:20:08,000
Speaker 5: but that's kind of why I don't really see Tarandino

1766
01:20:08,120 --> 01:20:10,360
Speaker 5: was a big threat in the Best Director category.

1767
01:20:10,840 --> 01:20:13,720
Speaker 6: Yeah, my devil's advocate for that was definitely just like

1768
01:20:14,120 --> 01:20:16,599
Speaker 6: what would be the most logical way that they could

1769
01:20:16,640 --> 01:20:19,679
Speaker 6: recognize what I considered to be the top three movies

1770
01:20:19,880 --> 01:20:22,400
Speaker 6: and the top three contenders for these big categories. And

1771
01:20:22,880 --> 01:20:26,880
Speaker 6: that is definitely more of a sentimental play on the

1772
01:20:26,920 --> 01:20:27,799
Speaker 6: part of the Academy.

1773
01:20:28,040 --> 01:20:29,240
Speaker 3: Do you I mean, I'm want to ask Katie, like,

1774
01:20:29,280 --> 01:20:31,160
Speaker 3: do you think that I mean, as a Tarantino fan,

1775
01:20:31,320 --> 01:20:33,559
Speaker 3: like I did not put this movie above Kill Bill

1776
01:20:33,800 --> 01:20:36,760
Speaker 3: and Glorious Bastards, pulp fiction like it's not in my

1777
01:20:36,880 --> 01:20:39,559
Speaker 3: taranteed on a library, like I would still pop in

1778
01:20:39,600 --> 01:20:42,120
Speaker 3: Reservoir Dogs like five times before I'd watch this again.

1779
01:20:42,400 --> 01:20:45,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, I totally agree with that, which is why I

1780
01:20:45,080 --> 01:20:47,800
Speaker 6: was initially very confused at the start of awards season

1781
01:20:47,840 --> 01:20:49,840
Speaker 6: why it was the favorite. It was the favorite as

1782
01:20:49,880 --> 01:20:52,360
Speaker 6: recently as last month when we first started mapping out

1783
01:20:52,360 --> 01:20:55,400
Speaker 6: this podcast. For Best Picture, I shouldn't specify.

1784
01:20:55,240 --> 01:20:58,000
Speaker 5: As we've kind of alluded to throughout this podcast, a

1785
01:20:58,040 --> 01:21:01,240
Speaker 5: lot of the Guild Awards and and just other big awards,

1786
01:21:01,280 --> 01:21:04,559
Speaker 5: the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, you know, things like that. Those

1787
01:21:04,600 --> 01:21:08,160
Speaker 5: awards ceremonies all kind of happened in about a month's

1788
01:21:08,200 --> 01:21:10,960
Speaker 5: span of time during award season, you know, from January

1789
01:21:11,400 --> 01:21:14,479
Speaker 5: to the Oscars, you know, on February night, So January

1790
01:21:14,479 --> 01:21:16,479
Speaker 5: to February, all these things are kind of taking place,

1791
01:21:16,760 --> 01:21:18,920
Speaker 5: and I think the Globes being at the front, you know,

1792
01:21:19,000 --> 01:21:21,120
Speaker 5: they have a lot of weight when these when these

1793
01:21:21,760 --> 01:21:24,120
Speaker 5: odds first come out, and then people start seeing a

1794
01:21:24,160 --> 01:21:26,919
Speaker 5: lot more of the movies. And remember again, the voters,

1795
01:21:27,120 --> 01:21:30,519
Speaker 5: the people actually voting on the Oscars admittedly do not

1796
01:21:30,640 --> 01:21:33,719
Speaker 5: see every film, and sometimes they admittedly do not see

1797
01:21:33,720 --> 01:21:36,639
Speaker 5: every Best Picture now and so once upon a time

1798
01:21:36,640 --> 01:21:38,240
Speaker 5: in how it was extremely popular.

1799
01:21:38,320 --> 01:21:39,680
Speaker 1: It was a big It was a pretty big hit

1800
01:21:39,680 --> 01:21:39,840
Speaker 1: at the.

1801
01:21:39,840 --> 01:21:41,760
Speaker 5: Box office, and I think that was one that most

1802
01:21:41,800 --> 01:21:43,800
Speaker 5: people saw it was one of the first ones.

1803
01:21:43,560 --> 01:21:45,800
Speaker 1: I saw, and I did like it.

1804
01:21:45,840 --> 01:21:47,200
Speaker 5: I think I did put it up there in terms

1805
01:21:47,200 --> 01:21:50,559
Speaker 5: of Tarantino, but not ahead of pulp fiction or Kill

1806
01:21:50,720 --> 01:21:52,840
Speaker 5: or the Kill Bills. But I thought it was pretty good.

1807
01:21:53,080 --> 01:21:54,840
Speaker 5: But I think it was just kind of that. That's

1808
01:21:54,880 --> 01:21:56,639
Speaker 5: why it was the early favorite. And it didn't really

1809
01:21:56,640 --> 01:21:58,920
Speaker 5: have anything going against it. You know, it had acting noms,

1810
01:21:58,920 --> 01:22:01,400
Speaker 5: it had screenplay no it had you know, it had

1811
01:22:01,400 --> 01:22:04,439
Speaker 5: all of the kind of necessary precursors as far as

1812
01:22:04,680 --> 01:22:06,920
Speaker 5: being one that could be the second we'st hated, And

1813
01:22:06,960 --> 01:22:10,799
Speaker 5: I think that's still a strong possibility when you consider again,

1814
01:22:11,080 --> 01:22:14,000
Speaker 5: you have Parasite a hurdle in terms of international film,

1815
01:22:14,320 --> 01:22:16,840
Speaker 5: you have a nineteen seventeen a hurdle in terms of

1816
01:22:16,880 --> 01:22:19,600
Speaker 5: acting and just being more of a technical film, and

1817
01:22:19,640 --> 01:22:22,240
Speaker 5: then you have Joker being a hurdle in terms of

1818
01:22:22,479 --> 01:22:24,960
Speaker 5: the elements of it being kind of looked at as

1819
01:22:24,960 --> 01:22:28,080
Speaker 5: a superhero or super villain movie really in this case,

1820
01:22:28,120 --> 01:22:30,840
Speaker 5: so Once upon a Time doesn't really have hurdles in

1821
01:22:30,920 --> 01:22:33,439
Speaker 5: terms of, you know, it's a Hollywood movie, it's got

1822
01:22:33,439 --> 01:22:35,760
Speaker 5: good acting, it's got everything you would expect. So I

1823
01:22:35,800 --> 01:22:41,000
Speaker 5: mean it could I think become that that like second We've.

1824
01:22:39,920 --> 01:22:42,040
Speaker 1: Hated or that We've hated film again.

1825
01:22:42,439 --> 01:22:45,880
Speaker 5: DraftKings is offering ten to one odds on any oscar's

1826
01:22:46,080 --> 01:22:50,439
Speaker 5: best picture bet. This must be your first DraftKings sportsbook bet.

1827
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1828
01:22:53,400 --> 01:22:57,240
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1829
01:22:58,880 --> 01:23:01,280
Speaker 1: You've really met This a night to remember it every way.

1830
01:23:02,160 --> 01:23:03,719
Speaker 1: Now let's go party till dawn.

1831
01:23:04,800 --> 01:23:08,840
Speaker 5: Katie, Caroline Colin, thank you guys so much for joining me.

1832
01:23:09,160 --> 01:23:11,080
Speaker 1: This was a very in depth discussion.

1833
01:23:11,120 --> 01:23:13,080
Speaker 5: I think some of you might have actually got me

1834
01:23:13,320 --> 01:23:15,360
Speaker 5: making a few other bets that I didn't make before.

1835
01:23:15,439 --> 01:23:18,680
Speaker 5: So really good discussion here and thanks for listening. Be

1836
01:23:18,680 --> 01:23:21,280
Speaker 5: sure to check out actionnetwork dot com. We will have

1837
01:23:21,640 --> 01:23:24,600
Speaker 5: Oscars content. I'll be writing a piece on all of

1838
01:23:24,640 --> 01:23:27,880
Speaker 5: the awards and kind of any updated things that happen

1839
01:23:28,040 --> 01:23:30,240
Speaker 5: in the interim of you know when we recorded this

1840
01:23:30,320 --> 01:23:33,960
Speaker 5: on Monday leading up to the awards on Sunday. Anything

1841
01:23:34,280 --> 01:23:37,040
Speaker 5: will be reflected in our content, so be sure to

1842
01:23:37,080 --> 01:23:39,960
Speaker 5: check that out at actionnetwork dot com. You guys can

1843
01:23:40,000 --> 01:23:45,120
Speaker 5: follow Caroline on Instagram at the Underscore Caro c ro

1844
01:23:45,160 --> 01:23:49,280
Speaker 5: O Underscore Smith and you can follow Katie on Twitter

1845
01:23:49,400 --> 01:23:53,639
Speaker 5: at Katie s Rich creek r I c h c.

1846
01:23:53,840 --> 01:23:54,519
Speaker 1: R e e K.

1847
01:23:55,280 --> 01:23:58,639
Speaker 5: You can follow Colin Wilson on Twitter as well at

1848
01:23:58,880 --> 01:24:02,040
Speaker 5: Underscore in c O L l I N and the

1849
01:24:02,120 --> 01:24:04,439
Speaker 5: number one. And you can follow me on Twitter at

1850
01:24:04,520 --> 01:24:06,920
Speaker 5: Chris Raybond. That is c h R I s r

1851
01:24:06,960 --> 01:24:10,040
Speaker 5: A y b O N And that'll do it for

1852
01:24:10,160 --> 01:24:12,760
Speaker 5: the Action Network podcast. Be sure to check us out

1853
01:24:13,000 --> 01:24:16,360
Speaker 5: for all your other sports gambling needs and download the

1854
01:24:16,520 --> 01:24:21,240
Speaker 5: Action Network app free right now, live bet tracking, in

1855
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Speaker 5: game win probabilities, all that good stuff, and be sure

1856
01:24:25,960 --> 01:24:29,520
Speaker 5: to download the Action Network podcast on Spotify.

1857
01:24:29,840 --> 01:24:30,719
Speaker 1: Let's get this money.

1858
01:24:31,000 --> 01:24:43,040
Speaker 3: Peace out, We're finished talking