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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by

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Speaker 1: the Fanduels Sportsbook. I'm your host today Brendan Glasheen, joined

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Speaker 1: by Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward.

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Speaker 3: That means we have a UFC betting preview.

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Speaker 1: We're breaking down UFC Vegas seventy eight this weekend from

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Speaker 1: the Apex Center in Las Vegas.

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Speaker 3: Thirteen fights on the card.

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Speaker 1: We're looking at underdogs, props and more, and we'll also

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Speaker 1: get to best bets.

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Speaker 3: Before the show concludes. We start with the main event.

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Speaker 1: Oh, by the way, broadcast for this is ESPN ESPN

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Speaker 1: Family and Network, starting at four Eastern on Saturday. The

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Speaker 1: main event featured welterweight matchup between Jafael Dosagnos. He is

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Speaker 1: the favorite taking on Vicente Luke. It's almost to pick them.

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Speaker 1: I mean it's getting close to that point. Sean Zarrillo,

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Speaker 1: when you assessed this one, just what do you make

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Speaker 1: of the fight, the matchup, and based on those edges,

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Speaker 1: how would you like to bet it?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I like RDA here quite a bit.

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Speaker 5: Actually made him closer to sixty percent in this matchup,

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Speaker 5: so I bet him up to about minus one forty.

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Speaker 5: The arguments on the Luca size I think, or the

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Speaker 5: Luca side, I think, come down to size. He's taller,

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Speaker 5: He's three inches taller, he has a six inch reach advantage,

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Speaker 5: He's the better striker. He's also seven years younger. We'll

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Speaker 5: get to why. I don't think that matters quite as

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Speaker 5: much in a bit. But in terms of the RDA side,

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Speaker 5: all of the things that I want to see over

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Speaker 5: the course of a twenty five minute fight, grappling, upside,

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Speaker 5: cardio upside, twenty five minute experience. I believe he's six

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Speaker 5: and four in fights that have gone at least twenty

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Speaker 5: five or gone at least to the fifth round. Vicente

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Speaker 5: Luke oh and two or three in his career in

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Speaker 5: fights that have been scheduled for five rounds. Don't think

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Speaker 5: he's ever gone the full twenty five minutes either. So

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Speaker 5: strength the schedule advantage for RDA. Twenty five minute fight

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Speaker 5: advantage for RDA all that five round experience on his schedule,

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Speaker 5: and I think any sort of longer extended fight certainly

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Speaker 5: favors him down the stretch in terms of having that

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Speaker 5: grappling upside. One big weakness that we see consistently in

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Speaker 5: Vicente Luga's game is his takedown defense sixty one percent

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Speaker 5: for his career. As I said, he's a little bit

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Speaker 5: bigger of a fighter in this matchup, but he seems

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Speaker 5: to get taken down by everybody. He does have a

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Speaker 5: good submission game from his back. He is pretty good

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Speaker 5: at getting back up from his feet, but I think

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Speaker 5: there's going to be long stretches in this fight where

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Speaker 5: RDA is controlling him up against the fence or controlling

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Speaker 5: him on the mat and probably not getting submitted from

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Speaker 5: top because his jiu jitsu is so good. So Lugay

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Speaker 5: probably the more dangerous fighter, especially over the first fifteen

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Speaker 5: ten or fifteen minutes of the fight. Just think he

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Speaker 5: hits harder, he's longer, has the striking advantage, But over

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Speaker 5: twenty five minute fight, I think that wrestling for RDA

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Speaker 5: is really going to prove the difference. He's going to

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Speaker 5: be able to land takedowns. And the last thing I

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Speaker 5: want to mention why the age doesn't concern me. Of

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Speaker 5: the two, Luca seems to be in worse physical shape.

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Speaker 5: Had a brain bleed prior to his last fight against

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Speaker 5: Jeff Neil was subsequently knocked out, but he had to

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Speaker 5: be cleared by doctors, especially before that fight, just to

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Speaker 5: get in the octagon, And certainly not the type of

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Speaker 5: thing I want to be betting on with a guy

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Speaker 5: having a.

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Speaker 3: Previous brain hemorrhage.

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Speaker 5: So certainly going with RDA here for the skill set,

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Speaker 5: the twenty five minute cardio, the wrestling upside, I just

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Speaker 5: think he has more ways to look like a dominant

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Speaker 5: favorite over the course of twenty five minutes, and with

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Speaker 5: the minute winning. On top of the fact that just

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Speaker 5: the physical thing with Luke certainly scares me, and I

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Speaker 5: think that neutralizes any conserves I'd have regarding the age

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Speaker 5: discrepancy between the two.

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward has the UFC Luck ratings right up available

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Speaker 1: now in the Action Network app, Actionnetwork dot Com and Philly.

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Speaker 1: You're kind of with Zerlo on this, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: the price is slightly It identifies that Luk is slightly undervalue,

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Speaker 1: despite the fact he's coming off consecutive losses.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, which puts me in opposition to Derulo a little

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Speaker 4: bit here, So a couple things he has gone twenty

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Speaker 4: five minutes. Luk went twenty five minutes with balal Mohammed

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Speaker 4: and what in a lot of ways is a stylistically

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Speaker 4: similar matchup. We expect Luk to be the better striker

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Speaker 4: in both those matchups. We expect him to get taken

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Speaker 4: down a few times. I was really impressed watching that

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Speaker 4: back with how often Luk was able to get back

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Speaker 4: to his feet, and while the actual score ended up

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Speaker 4: not being that close, most of those rounds there was

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Speaker 4: a pretty compelling case for either guy because Luk does

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Speaker 4: better damage on the feet gets taken down, and I

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Speaker 4: think every single time he got taken down, except for

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Speaker 4: maybe once, he was able to get back to his feet.

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Speaker 4: It was kind of annoying how he did it because

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Speaker 4: he almost waited till the end of the round where

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Speaker 4: he didn't give himself a lot of time to then

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Speaker 4: score points. But he showed an ability to do that

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Speaker 4: against a much much larger balal Mohammed. I think it'll

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Speaker 4: be a lot easier for him against Dosangyo's you know,

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Speaker 4: Dosagno's former lightweight, not a tiny welter by any stretch,

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Speaker 4: but bal Mohammed is huge and Luka was able to

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Speaker 4: get out from under him. I actually think people who

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Speaker 4: listen to the podcast. Have heard me say this before.

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Speaker 4: I don't like guys who have to grapple in twenty

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Speaker 4: five minute fights. It is just so much harder to

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Speaker 4: wrestle for twenty five minutes than it is to do

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Speaker 4: what Vicente Luca is going to do, which is, you know,

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Speaker 4: try to win the middle of the cage, keep him

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Speaker 4: on his back foot, throw a lot of leg kicks,

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Speaker 4: jab punch. That kind of thing is just easier to

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Speaker 4: keep up for an extended length of time, So I

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Speaker 4: don't It's not that I necessarily have issues with Dosignos's cardio.

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Speaker 4: I just think the style works out a little better

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Speaker 4: for Visente Luke over an extended period. And then Sean

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Speaker 4: kind of touched on it, but I prefer to bet

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Speaker 4: Luke against grapplers. While he does have pretty bad takedown defense,

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Speaker 4: he's not really interested in defending takedowns. He kind of

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Speaker 4: just accepts it and works his way back when he's

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Speaker 4: not finding subs. You know that brain bleed is a concern.

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Speaker 4: I don't like him fighting strikers. I worry about that,

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Speaker 4: but the odds of Dosigno's hurting him or knocking him

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Speaker 4: out on his feet are pretty small in this one,

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Speaker 4: which makes me a bit more comfortable. So if you

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Speaker 4: can get him at plus money, which it's been bouncing

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Speaker 4: around all week, I like his money line. I think

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Speaker 4: you can find someone who five's right now. What I

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Speaker 4: really like, though, is Luk in four or five are

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Speaker 4: by decision, just because I do think if Dosignos has

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Speaker 4: to wrestle has to take him down over and over.

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Speaker 4: I can see Dosignos running out of gas here or

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Speaker 4: you know, kind of a close decision where Luke's strikes

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Speaker 4: gets weighed over Dosagos's control time. That's all the way

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Speaker 4: up at plus three to twenty, so that's actually my

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Speaker 4: preferred pick here. Also like the money line, only at

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Speaker 4: plus money, it's you know, lined as roughly a pick

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Speaker 4: him as it should be. If it were a three

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Speaker 4: round fight, I'd probably be on the other side. But

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Speaker 4: for the five rounds, I like not having to grapple,

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Speaker 4: and I like the way his style plays out in

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Speaker 4: that situation.

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Speaker 1: So really you care of response by apologies? Yeah, Billy's

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Speaker 1: on the opposite side here here to respond.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I just think we have a sufficient sample of

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Speaker 5: RDA not slowing down while consistently wrestling for twenty five minutes.

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Speaker 5: I just think he's you know, as a future Hall

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Speaker 5: of Famer. Uh, there's guys who you sort of have

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Speaker 5: to rate diffferently and look at their careers differently and

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Speaker 5: value them differently as they prep for fights. You know,

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Speaker 5: the age concern is a factor here, Like there's there's

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Speaker 5: a potential on either side that we see a pretty

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Speaker 5: significant physical decline. I mean, already a won nine months ago,

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Speaker 5: but in his late thirties getting close to forty. Every

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Speaker 5: time he comes back after an eight nine month layoff,

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Speaker 5: there's just an increased chance that he's going to drop

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Speaker 5: off of a cliff physically. And the same thing with Luca,

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Speaker 5: you know, getting knocked out after having a previous brain injury.

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Speaker 5: There's a chance that he's just completely shot, you know,

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Speaker 5: going through several wars throughout his careers. So yeah, I

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Speaker 5: think that's what makes this difficult to handicap this fight

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Speaker 5: is there's reasons to doubt on either side. There's reasons

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Speaker 5: to suspect on either side that one of them may

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Speaker 5: not come in in their prime due to you know,

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Speaker 5: previous injuries, previous fights, and age. So yeah, that that

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Speaker 5: I think makes this fight a bit more difficult to handicap,

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Speaker 5: but grappling upside proving party over twenty five minutes, it's

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Speaker 5: one go with Ardia.

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Speaker 4: And real quick before we move on. If this was

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Speaker 4: RDA three or four years ago, I totally wouldn't even

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Speaker 4: be considering any of these bets. Part of my handicapping

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Speaker 4: here is projecting in a little bit of a decline

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Speaker 4: for URDA. You never know when that's going to hit,

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Speaker 4: and it tends to kind of hit all at once

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Speaker 4: with these older fighters. It's not as gradual as we

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Speaker 4: might see another sport. But I am factoring that into

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Speaker 4: some extent. Right, If this is both their guys at

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Speaker 4: their best, it's RDA by a mile, you know, seven

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Speaker 4: eight years older. Not as easy to say. Yep.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we'll dive into the featherweight main event or the

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Speaker 1: featherweight fight of the night that we're going to discuss

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Speaker 1: in just a moment, But first underdogs, and we have

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Speaker 1: a consensus underdog on the UFC podcast Zerrilla. I want

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Speaker 1: to tell us who it is and why this makes

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Speaker 1: sense in terms of the value you have.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think Billy likes this pick a little bit

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Speaker 5: more than I do, so I'm going to let him

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Speaker 5: expound on it further, there's a couple of underdogs that

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Speaker 5: I like in this card. We're going to talk about

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Speaker 5: them in the next two fights. I don't know if

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Speaker 5: I'm going to stake them both as I normally would,

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Speaker 5: and there's reasons why I'm skeptical for either. So first,

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Speaker 5: for Chris Daccas, moving down from heavyweight to light heavyweight

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Speaker 5: coming off of three straight knockout losses, I think he's

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Speaker 5: going to be at a big speed disadvantage here, and

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Speaker 5: I don't know if he has a great chin. He

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Speaker 5: also doesn't necessarily have the best cardio. Most of his

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Speaker 5: career wins are in the first five to seven minutes

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Speaker 5: a lot in the first round. I believe he's one

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Speaker 5: and h career by decision, so almost all of his

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Speaker 5: fights and inside the distance, and he has won a

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Speaker 5: decision before. I just think he's going to be at

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Speaker 5: a big speed discrepancy disadvantage against Khlul Roundree, who's a

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Speaker 5: very good striker trains out in Thailand with Tiger muy Tai,

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Speaker 5: just has the sharper hands. The reach is the same.

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Speaker 5: Even though Daccas is coming down from heavyweight, they have

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Speaker 5: the same reach. Doccas is a couple inches color, but

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Speaker 5: in terms of the striking, I think Roundtree is going

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Speaker 5: to be much faster. But where Doccas probably has an

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Speaker 5: advantage is the grapling. The only problem is he's never

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Speaker 5: attempted to take down in the UFC, going against the

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Speaker 5: division where he probably had a pretty clear grappling advantage

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Speaker 5: against most of his opponents. Here against Roundtree, I certainly

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Speaker 5: think he is a grappling advantage. He has a BJJ

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Speaker 5: black belt. His brother typically grapples in his UFC fights

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Speaker 5: and puts that black belt to good use and submits

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Speaker 5: a lot of opponents. I'm curious to see if daucas

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Speaker 5: decides the grapple against guys who are more similarly sized

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Speaker 5: to him. So dawcas on the money line at plus

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Speaker 5: one sixty, I think is interesting because he does have

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Speaker 5: all of the grappling upside in this fight technically two

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Speaker 5: he is the bigger man, a couple of inches taller.

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Speaker 5: I think the size though, shouldn't be a big factor,

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Speaker 5: but plus fourteen hundred by submission really caught my eye

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Speaker 5: because if he wins this fight, I think it's likelier

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Speaker 5: to be inside the distance, just because of the historics

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Speaker 5: of how you know his fights go, but also there

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Speaker 5: seems to be as much of a power upside as

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Speaker 5: round Tree might have on the feet. I think Dacas

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Speaker 5: has an even more significant submission grappling edge. So if

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Speaker 5: this fight hits the mat, Dawcas at fourteen to one

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Speaker 5: by sub is going to look like quite spicy values.

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Speaker 5: So it probably sprinkled that or put it in round Robins.

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Speaker 5: But I'm considering taking his money line too, just you know,

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Speaker 5: the grappling upside of plus money is something we always

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Speaker 5: talk about. I'm just skeptical because he's moving down and

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Speaker 5: wait here for the first time, and coming off of

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Speaker 5: three straight ko losses. You know, it definitely has to

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Speaker 5: be concerned. He just gets clipped and goes out right away.

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Speaker 3: Doc is down to plus one forty eight on the

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Speaker 3: money line.

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Speaker 1: Over at Fan Duel and Billy you mapp this out

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Speaker 1: how he made the weight class shift and that's why

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Speaker 1: based on some other points that you do see an

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Speaker 1: edge on the money line here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, Sean mentioned he's been knocked out three

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Speaker 4: straight times. That was Curtis Blade's, Derek Lewis and jyrzena rosenstrike.

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Speaker 4: There's not a lot of humans that could be hit

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Speaker 4: by any of those three and remained unconscious. So like,

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Speaker 4: does he have a bad chin. Maybe this doesn't prove

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Speaker 4: that he has a good chin, but we can give

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Speaker 4: him a pass against those guys, right, like everyone gets

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Speaker 4: knocked out by them. The bad news that they moved

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Speaker 4: him down and then immediately matched him up with a

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Speaker 4: very powerful striker at two o five rather than you know,

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Speaker 4: a different type of matchup for him, which is rough.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean, Sean Nil, he has to grapple here.

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Speaker 4: He's coming off three straight losses Khalil Rowntree versus like

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Speaker 4: just randomized UFC two fiver is it a huge grappling disadvantage.

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Speaker 4: I think part of the reason we didn't see him

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Speaker 4: do it in a lot of his heavyweight fights is

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Speaker 4: because he was consistently giving up twenty to thirty in

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Speaker 4: the case of Derek Lewis, maybe up to like forty

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Speaker 4: or fifty after Lewis rehydrated pounds. It's really hard to

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Speaker 4: take someone down who's forty pounds heavier than you, fifty

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Speaker 4: pounds heavier than you. I don't know if that was why.

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Speaker 4: You know, part of it is you see these guys

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Speaker 4: pick up a few knockouts like oh my hands are

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Speaker 4: the best, I'm gonna cash fifty grand performance bonuses, knock

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Speaker 4: everyone out, but then all of a sudden that stops working.

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Speaker 4: He's fighting for his job here. He really needs to

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Speaker 4: prioritize just winning the fight by the easiest method possible,

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Speaker 4: and he just has a super clear path to doing that.

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Speaker 4: Like Roundtree is not a good grappler. His muytai stance

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Speaker 4: makes him pretty easy to take down, not great off

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Speaker 4: his back once he gets there. And Rowntree is a

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Speaker 4: former middleweight, so he looks super jack, but he's not

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Speaker 4: a huge light heavyweight. You know, this is not Ewon

280
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Speaker 4: Kutlaba or some of these big strong guys. It's scary, right,

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Speaker 4: we don't know that he's going to do it. I

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Speaker 4: think every sign points that he needs to and should.

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Speaker 4: He's probably smart enough to understand that. Loved this one.

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Speaker 4: Earlier in the week he was plus one seventy plus

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Speaker 4: one seventy five. Still like it at plus one fifty.

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Speaker 4: I'm also kind of wish Sean I probably wouldn't go

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Speaker 4: submission that I'd probably go inside the distance it, you know,

288
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Speaker 4: not as great odds, but still juicy. If I was

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Speaker 4: going to prop it, So yeah, we're mostly in agreement.

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Speaker 4: I just have a little bit more confidence that he

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Speaker 4: actually does the thing that he very obviously should do.

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Speaker 5: But this is, you know, something we talked about in

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Speaker 5: our Experts Guide billion why it could be difficult to

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Speaker 5: bet on MMA. Sometimes sometimes the strength advantage or the

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Speaker 5: path of victory that you see for a fighter they

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Speaker 5: don't take. And the fact that Daccas is never actually

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Speaker 5: not that he's never landed to take down I don't

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Speaker 5: believe he's even attempted to take down to the UFC,

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Speaker 5: so he never even tried to get these bigger guys

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Speaker 5: down at heavyweight. That's what has me concerned, is we're

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Speaker 5: betting on him to do something he's never even attempted

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Speaker 5: at the UFC level. It seems fairly obvious that he

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Speaker 5: should do it in this matchup, but you're still banking

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Speaker 5: on something he's never actually done before. And that's what

305
00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:12,640
Speaker 5: makes betting on this difficult and why I probably wouldn't

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Speaker 5: stake this one as much as I normally would for

307
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Speaker 5: a typical underdock.

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Speaker 4: That and I probably would be with you if I couldn't.

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Speaker 4: If there wasn't like an obvious reason why he didn't

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Speaker 4: do that at heavyweight, right, Like, he had a speed

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Speaker 4: advantage at heavyweight, his hands were so much faster than everyone,

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Speaker 4: and it's harder to take down guys who are way

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Speaker 4: bigger than you. So like, if he were staying in

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Speaker 4: a weight class and we still saw that advantage, I'd

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Speaker 4: probably be a little bit more cautious. It just feels

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Speaker 4: so obvious. And I know, like that doesn't mean he

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Speaker 4: does it, but it just feels so obvious. And that's

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Speaker 4: the kind of thing that if we're gonna do it,

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Speaker 4: we're gonna do it when it's plus money, right Like

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Speaker 4: if he was minus one fifty here, say no way,

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Speaker 4: I'm not laying the juice on a guy to do

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Speaker 4: something he's never done. But it's worth a shot here.

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Speaker 4: And honestly, even if he doesn't, I don't think it's

324
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Speaker 4: a huge disadvantage striking. He's got fast hands, he's got

325
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Speaker 4: good power, Like he could mess around and win a

326
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Speaker 4: striking exchange too. I hope he doesn't. I hope he

327
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Speaker 4: doesn't even try. I hope we don't know if he

328
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Speaker 4: could do that, But it's not the craziest outcome either.

329
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Speaker 4: Whereas King will be.

330
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Speaker 5: Much more competitive than the grappling. And that's again another

331
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Speaker 5: reason why we're playing Dacas at plus money. Also, like

332
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Speaker 5: just fight like your brother.

333
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Speaker 4: And we don't. I mean, who's to say this isn't

334
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Speaker 4: actually his brother coming up a weight class rather than

335
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Speaker 4: the big one cutting down. It could be either of them,

336
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Speaker 4: probably know fair point?

337
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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, good stuff, good featherweight matchup that we're

338
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Speaker 1: going to discuss our fight of the night featuring I

339
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Speaker 1: had to read this one a few times.

340
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Speaker 3: I thought Dansby Swanson of the Chicago Cubs.

341
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Speaker 1: Cubs Swanson, which is that's kind of you know, Zarella,

342
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Speaker 1: baseball guy, Billy you two, It's just kind of a

343
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Speaker 1: neat little thing. But Cubs Swanson is the underdog taking

344
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Speaker 1: on Hakem Dodo. He's at minus two forty five over

345
00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,480
Speaker 1: at fandle now down to minus two thirty five at

346
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Speaker 1: fanduels Swanson at plus one eighty six.

347
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Speaker 3: Swanson's older thirty nine years old.

348
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Speaker 1: Zarella, I'm not sure how much age factors in here

349
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Speaker 1: as it pertains to this particular fight. There, strike act

350
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,560
Speaker 1: receive is very similar. How do you pick this one

351
00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:03,880
Speaker 1: apart and land on.

352
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Speaker 3: A best bet for this fight?

353
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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think age is a huge factor here, because

354
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Speaker 5: prime for prime, I'm taking Cub every time, and I

355
00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:11,280
Speaker 5: don't think you're getting close to plus one ninety five.

356
00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,520
Speaker 5: He might beat minus two hundred in his prime against

357
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Speaker 5: the Kim Dawadhu. Hikeem is the bigger guy. Cub used

358
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:19,560
Speaker 5: to fight at one thirty five. He's come up to

359
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:21,640
Speaker 5: one forty five. He seems a little bit small for

360
00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:24,400
Speaker 5: the division and also doesn't seem to have the power

361
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:26,880
Speaker 5: that his opponents have. He got absolutely carved up by

362
00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:30,360
Speaker 5: Jonathan Martinez in his last fight, and as he's getting older,

363
00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,880
Speaker 5: it seems like he can't take the damage as well

364
00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,960
Speaker 5: to the legs, to the body. Just seems like he's

365
00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:39,240
Speaker 5: much more able to get out of there where He

366
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:40,840
Speaker 5: used to be one of the most durable fighters in

367
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Speaker 5: the UFC, has been through a number of wars, so

368
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Speaker 5: I think the power advantage the durability advantage does lean

369
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Speaker 5: to me and Hikuem Dawadhu. But at the same time,

370
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,560
Speaker 5: Dowady was not a particularly durable guy either. He seems

371
00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:53,840
Speaker 5: to get wobbled, they're knocked down in all of his fights,

372
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Speaker 5: and I don't view him as a particularly big power

373
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Speaker 5: puncher or particularly great fighter. He's a good strike but

374
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Speaker 5: I think Cub might have a grappling advantage here, So

375
00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:06,440
Speaker 5: there are ways for Cubb to keep this fight competitive,

376
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,600
Speaker 5: to keep it close if he does not get knocked out.

377
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,120
Speaker 5: I think that is the biggest concern here is the age,

378
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,320
Speaker 5: his ability to take damage against the guy who is bigger,

379
00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,560
Speaker 5: three inch reach advantage and more of a natural one

380
00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,119
Speaker 5: to forty five or where Cub is probably a natural

381
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:22,640
Speaker 5: one to thirty five er, So he's at a size

382
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,800
Speaker 5: of discrepancy facing a younger man who hits harder. Don't

383
00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:29,000
Speaker 5: like any of those things, but skill for skill, Cubb

384
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:31,600
Speaker 5: is the more technical man, he's the better fighter. So

385
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 5: again another small underdog bet because of the age factor,

386
00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:39,280
Speaker 5: because of the durability factor based on where I projected

387
00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:41,400
Speaker 5: this compared to where the market has this. I'll tell you,

388
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,639
Speaker 5: like Cub is a very popular fighter, and when I

389
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,880
Speaker 5: run the numbers of these fights, the popular fighters tend

390
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:50,879
Speaker 5: to get more support, more of that underdog support, or

391
00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:54,280
Speaker 5: you know, just more public support than you would anticipate

392
00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,000
Speaker 5: based on the betting line. That's not the case in

393
00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:59,560
Speaker 5: this fight. Cub is actually being very heavily picked against here,

394
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:03,439
Speaker 5: So I think the market has already factored in, you know,

395
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,720
Speaker 5: all of the age factor et cetera into the line.

396
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:08,800
Speaker 5: I think there is value on covered around plus two

397
00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,240
Speaker 5: hundred probably better small down about plus one seventy five,

398
00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,440
Speaker 5: but not much further and again not more than about

399
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,399
Speaker 5: a quarter eatit bet. I just want to have a

400
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,440
Speaker 5: little bit of action on him here as the more

401
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,600
Speaker 5: skilled guy, but the age et cetera.

402
00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:22,720
Speaker 1: You know, as we concerned, Billy, where do you land

403
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,200
Speaker 1: on this one between Swanson and Dalla Doo?

404
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,280
Speaker 4: Yeah? I like Sean z Engel. I think personally, I'm

405
00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 4: going to go with the decision no bat line on

406
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 4: Cub Swanson, which means if a decision for either fighter happens,

407
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,639
Speaker 4: you get your bet refunded. I was just kind of

408
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:40,399
Speaker 4: surprised the way this one was priced. Dawodo has decisions,

409
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,639
Speaker 4: and five of the six UFC wins, three of those

410
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,120
Speaker 4: are split decision wins. So first of all, we got

411
00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,639
Speaker 4: like the luck rating factor going against him pretty heavily here,

412
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,360
Speaker 4: because winning three splits, going three to zero in splits

413
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,960
Speaker 4: is you know, pretty stark. And then also I just

414
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,080
Speaker 4: don't know how these markets are seeing Dawudo is the

415
00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 4: more likely finisher here because he hasn't done it. Cub

416
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,679
Speaker 4: fight fighting in smaller weight classes finished roughly half of

417
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 4: his UFC wins also would BEJJ black belt, pretty good submissions,

418
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 4: a little bit of grappling upside, he gets about one

419
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 4: per fifteen minutes, where Dawodo Pure muy Thai never even

420
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 4: attempted one. And then I think that durability piece that

421
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 4: Sean mentioned, I'm not confident in this, but it could

422
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,080
Speaker 4: be a little bit better without having that extra weight cut,

423
00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 4: being able to eat a little bit better, have a

424
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,399
Speaker 4: couple more pounds of muscle on him. I'm hoping that

425
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 4: helps him stay a little bit more durable here. I

426
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 4: think the likeliest outcome is probably a Dawoodo decision where

427
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,399
Speaker 4: he just kind of wins the striking exchanges but nothing

428
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:36,000
Speaker 4: super substantive happens. But if there's a finish, I think

429
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 4: it's likelier to be Dawoodo. So getting that at plus

430
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,959
Speaker 4: two thirty five or so really like that, And you know,

431
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 4: I'm comfortable betting that a little bit bigger because there's

432
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 4: a good chance it gets refunded anyway.

433
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:47,919
Speaker 1: All Right, onto the prop market and then we'll go

434
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 1: to best best before we wrap things up.

435
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 3: What jumps out twius this week? Soarrilo from a prop standpoint.

436
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 5: Gonna take Josh Fremd inside the distance at minus one

437
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 5: thirty five, big juicy money one price. So getting his

438
00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 5: inside the distance at a discount rejected him to win

439
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 5: by finish closer to seventy five or eighty percent of

440
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,639
Speaker 5: the time, the betting market telling you that it's closer

441
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 5: to sixty or sixty five percent in a matchup here

442
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,199
Speaker 5: with Jamie Pickett, two grapplers grappling oriented fighters. Tough to

443
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 5: describe Picket as a fighter really, because it seems like

444
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 5: his best skill is controlling opponents up against the fence.

445
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,399
Speaker 5: But because of that stylistic matchup, I do expect frem

446
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 5: to have opportunities to land takedowns here, and once he

447
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 5: gets on top Picket, I think he's either going to

448
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,159
Speaker 5: finish him with ground and pound or get him to

449
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 5: roll onto his belly and to finish him via rear

450
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:35,280
Speaker 5: naked choke. So Josh Fremd inside the distance not necessarily

451
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 5: on skill or a huge power edge, but more so

452
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 5: on aggression and tenacity. He's just the guy who's not

453
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 5: going to stop coming forward until he sees his hand raised.

454
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,479
Speaker 5: So fremed inside the distance at a big juicy minus

455
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 5: one thirty five, but a big discount compared to his

456
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 5: money life Billy.

457
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 1: In the prop market, you've also identified an inside the

458
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 1: distance prop but a different fighter.

459
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 3: Who might that be?

460
00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm looking at Martin Budai and I don't say,

461
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 4: just kind of swap out what Zerilla said about Fremden

462
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 4: picket for Budai and his opponent Josh Parisian. Not really

463
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 4: sure what Parisians all that good at. Like in theory,

464
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,360
Speaker 4: he's got some grappling upside, but it doesn't really tend

465
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,879
Speaker 4: to work out. He has two wins in the UFC.

466
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 4: One is a split decision over a guy who's since

467
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 4: been cut, and then one is a ground and pound

468
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,360
Speaker 4: over like probably one of the worst heavyweights we've seen

469
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 4: in modern UFC history in al And Budeau and Budai

470
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,639
Speaker 4: has gone to decision and all of his UFC wins,

471
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 4: but he finished eight out of nine before that. So really,

472
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,360
Speaker 4: anytime we can get a fairly heavily favored heavyweight at

473
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 4: decent plus money plus one seventy five, that feels like

474
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,439
Speaker 4: the way to play it. Just because we know the

475
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 4: finish rate for heavyweights is so much higher it is

476
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 4: the small kids. There's nowhere to run and hide. I

477
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 4: just don't I think he finds a way to finish Persian.

478
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 4: I'm not confident that it's necessarily on the feet or

479
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 4: on the ground or by submission. But we take a

480
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 4: minus two hundred favorite flip Himo a plus one seventy

481
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 4: five underdog and get what I think is his likeliest

482
00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:00,200
Speaker 4: win condition. So not a hugely confident pick. I don't

483
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 4: think we Die is the best heavyweight to ever either,

484
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,400
Speaker 4: but should be a lot better than Prejian tomorrow.

485
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 1: Okay, and before we go, let's do best bets for

486
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 1: UFC Vegas seventy eight, Sean Zarillo, where are we looking

487
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: this week for a final bet or a best bet?

488
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:17,239
Speaker 4: Yeah? My favorite bet?

489
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,399
Speaker 5: Can it take Yasmin and Lusendo here at around minus

490
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,959
Speaker 5: two hundred that's about right better up to got her

491
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 5: closer to minus one eighty five. She had a really

492
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 5: fun debut in her USA debut against Yasmin Jergway, who

493
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 5: many people think will be an eventual UFC champion, even

494
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 5: though she subsequently was knocked out in her last fight,

495
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 5: but a really fun striking matchup between those two on

496
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 5: a UFC pay per view when they were two relative

497
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 5: unknowns and a really could follow up fight from Lucendo.

498
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 5: In her last matchup against Brogan, Walker landed multiple takedowns

499
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 5: in her in that fight, showed that she can grapple

500
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 5: in addition to strike, as she did in her debut,

501
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 5: and I just view her as the more well rounded

502
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 5: fighter than Pollyanna Vianna. Fianna can strike with her, I

503
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 5: think she can hang on the feet, but where it's

504
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 5: really going to run into problems is her takedown defense

505
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 5: fifty percent for her career, willing to accept takedowns not

506
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 5: as much as just getting taken down and unable to

507
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 5: defend them. I think she's fine being put on a

508
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 5: rack because she is a good submission game off of

509
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,120
Speaker 5: her back, and I think she's fine playing guard trying

510
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 5: to hunt from submissions off of her back have potentially

511
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 5: finished opponents. But in terms of optics for the judges,

512
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 5: that is the worst thing you want to see is

513
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 5: your fighter getting taken down, laying on the rack and

514
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 5: trying to hunt for submissions. Worst possible optics for the judges,

515
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 5: and it seems to happen to Vianna multiple times. In

516
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 5: each of her fight. She averages over two an hour

517
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 5: nearly two and a half submissions per fifteen minutes, but

518
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 5: she's getting less than one takedown per fifteen minutes. So

519
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 5: that tells you most of those submission attempts are coming

520
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 5: when she's on her back, not when she's on top.

521
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 5: So the power advantage on the feed for Lusindo, the

522
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 5: durability advantage on the feet for Luscindo, in addition to

523
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:57,879
Speaker 5: the fact that I think she's going to land takedowns

524
00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,719
Speaker 5: and spend the majority of this fight or a good

525
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 5: poor despite in top position and controlling her opponent. I

526
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 5: like Vianna here closer to minus two hundred, or I

527
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 5: should say I like Lucindo here closer to minus two hundred.

528
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 5: I think Vianna needs a finish to win this fight.

529
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,879
Speaker 1: And Billy, your best bet is also featured in your

530
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 1: Luck Ratings Women's Strangweight. Why is there an edge on

531
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 1: the underdog here?

532
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm hoping nobody from my Bjjjim is listening to

533
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 4: this podcast because I'm going to engage in some Brazilian

534
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 4: jiu jitsu slander here for a minute. Jacqueline and Morim

535
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 4: is a pretty heavy favorite here. She is world class

536
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 4: jiu jitsu who's competed at a super high level. Don't

537
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 4: love how that translates to her for MMA. Like Sean

538
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 4: was talking about in his last pack, loves to play

539
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 4: off her back, happy to do that. She also tends

540
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,120
Speaker 4: to gas out, at least from what we've seen so far,

541
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,199
Speaker 4: if she doesn't get the submission almost immediately, which is

542
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 4: something we see most Brazilian jiu jitsu competitions. You only

543
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 4: do one round at a time. That's a little bit

544
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 4: harder to translate over to MMA, which you're pushing the

545
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 4: higher pace. You have to get on the stool, get

546
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 4: back up, do it again and again. She's fighting mobster

547
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 4: at Cogneho or monster at Ruiz. I don't know which

548
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 4: last name we're going with this time. And Ruiz is

549
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 4: like plus two O five. She is a really high

550
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 4: level wrestler. She was on the Mexican national team, competed

551
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 4: in that stuff. In her debut, she just stuck like

552
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 4: the most simple head throw three straight times, landed it,

553
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 4: got a scarfold or kesegatami, and held that position for

554
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 4: three rounds. I liked her desire to be on top.

555
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 4: I like her willingness to you know, push for wrestling

556
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 4: and stuff like that. I think it's going to be

557
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 4: a sketchy first round between these two, with the more

558
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 4: very likely to lock up a submission, but if it

559
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 4: doesn't happen, it should be all Ruiz from there. Both

560
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 4: of them have very very bad striking, at least technically

561
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 4: for Mma, but I think Ruiz has better power, a

562
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 4: little bit more aggressive. So if it's one of those

563
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 4: where we see, you know, someone's got better submission skills.

564
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 4: But if she can't get it to the ground and

565
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 4: Ruiz wants to keep it standing, I'd make her a

566
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 4: slight favorite in those exchanges, even though I expect this

567
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 4: to play out on the ground. So plus two O

568
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 4: five fine with laying that Jew is probably about a

569
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 4: half unit for me here. I could also see, you know,

570
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 4: taking some late props on her too, because I think

571
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 4: it'll be a scary opening segment live live option there

572
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 4: on Ruiz as well. If Amarm can't get a quick

573
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 4: submission in the first round.

574
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 1: Okay, and that's a line you might want to grab

575
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 1: sooner rather than later, as you noted, because that price

576
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: has come down on Ruiz over at Fandel That's going

577
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 1: to do it for a UFC Vegas seventy eight betting

578
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 1: preview here on the Action Network podcast. Be sure to

579
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 1: find Zarillo and Billy Ward in the Action app should

580
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 1: they add anything else before the weekend commences.

581
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 3: I'm your host, Brendan glas Sheen.

582
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Action Network podcast, presented by Vandal.

583
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

584
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

585
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler