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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then roud Otto with the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: The Ukraine risks losing all of the Russian lands it

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Speaker 2: seized in just a month's time. We're talking about the

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Speaker 2: Kursk region, of course, where Ukrainian troops are facing off

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Speaker 2: with not only Russian forces but North Korean troops, bumping

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Speaker 2: into some twelve thousand North Korean troops in Kersk. Melinda Herring,

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Speaker 2: of course, is an expert on all of this, and

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Speaker 2: since the beginning of the war, has spent quite a

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Speaker 2: bit of time with us here on Bloomberg TV and radio,

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Speaker 2: helping us understand the cross currents in Ukraine and what

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Speaker 2: might come next. Senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, Melinda,

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Speaker 2: it is great to see you. We know that Russia

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Speaker 2: is using cold as a weapon. We saw the Christmas

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Speaker 2: Day attacks, but this story coming out of Kursk is

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Speaker 2: certainly one for concern. If it's Ukraine looking for a

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Speaker 2: strengthened hand at the negotiating table.

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Speaker 3: What is really going on on the.

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Speaker 4: Ground, Hey, Joe.

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Speaker 5: The Russians have decided that they want to push Ukraine

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Speaker 5: out of Kursk before Trump is inaugurated on January twentieth,

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Speaker 5: So we're seeing a big push. I don't think that

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Speaker 5: this is shocking or unexpected, but the Ukrainians have held

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Speaker 5: this territory since August, and Vladimir Putin ignored it for

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Speaker 5: a while and then he decided enough with it, and

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Speaker 5: they brought in the North Korean troops to try to

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Speaker 5: push the Ukrainians out. So that's what we're seeing right now.

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Speaker 2: Well, there are a lot of challenges here, as I

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Speaker 2: mentioned already.

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Speaker 3: You've got the weather.

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Speaker 2: We know about the equipment challenges, but then there's manpower

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Speaker 2: as well, Melinda, and I wonder what the greatest need

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Speaker 2: for Ukraine is as we head into the rest of

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Speaker 2: this cold season.

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Speaker 5: So I think it's important to back up because a

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Speaker 5: year ago you and I were talking about ammunition shortages,

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Speaker 5: and the ammunition shortages a year ago last Christmas were

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Speaker 5: eight to one, seven to one, five to one, depending

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Speaker 5: where you were on the front line. That was Russian

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Speaker 5: to Ukrainian. The Ukrainians were desperately short of one to

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Speaker 5: fifty five millimeters shells. They didn't have enough. It was

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Speaker 5: a big panic. It was a big sos. Fast forward

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Speaker 5: to where we are now. There is parody Joe with

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Speaker 5: Ammo on the front line today, and there's parody with

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Speaker 5: attack drones. So that's pretty remarkable and I think it's

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Speaker 5: worth acknowledging. But there is a man power shortage on

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Speaker 5: the Ukrainian side, and the Ukrainians sat too long on

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Speaker 5: this problem, and they have a demographic crisis as well.

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Speaker 5: So there's been a lot of pressure from the White

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Speaker 5: House to force Ukraine to drop right now it's at

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Speaker 5: twenty five years and above is when men have to

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Speaker 5: serve in the White House, but in particular wants them

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Speaker 5: to drop that age limit. But there's a big problem.

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Speaker 5: If the Ukrainians drop that age limit, there's not going

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Speaker 5: to be any more Ukrainians. Ukrainians tend to have children early,

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Speaker 5: they get married early, have children early, and if they

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Speaker 5: were to drop that age limit, it would really wreck

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Speaker 5: havoc on the country.

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Speaker 2: Well, when you consider the need for material, if we

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Speaker 2: can just focus on that for a moment, aside from manpower.

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Speaker 2: At Melinda, Elon Musk thinks that he's got an idea here.

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Speaker 2: He says, America needs a large quantity of long range drones, air, surface,

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Speaker 2: water and submarine and hypersonic missiles. Anything manned will die

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Speaker 2: very fast in a drone war. Is that what we

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Speaker 2: have learned in Ukraine.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, So that's one of the stories that definitely deserves

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Speaker 5: more credit. And once the war in Ukraine is over,

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Speaker 5: Ukraine is going to be the leading player around the

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Speaker 5: world with naval drones and with long range drones and JOE.

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Speaker 5: They have huge capacity. That's another story that's not getting

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Speaker 5: enough play. So the Ukrainians in the last year have

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Speaker 5: maxed their drone capacity internally in Ukraine, and they could

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Speaker 5: increase it by a two thirds factor if they had

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Speaker 5: more money. So it's really at this point they don't

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Speaker 5: have a technology problem, they have a money problem. But

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Speaker 5: let's look at drone Let's look at naval drones for

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Speaker 5: a minute. So Ukraine doesn't have a navy JOE, and

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Speaker 5: the Ukrainians with naval drones have managed to push back

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Speaker 5: the Russian navy to the other side.

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Speaker 6: Of Crimea because their naval.

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Speaker 5: Drones are so effective, and they're pretty inexpensive. So yes,

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Speaker 5: the world has a lot to learn from what Ukraine

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Speaker 5: has learned with naval and long range drones. And also

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Speaker 5: it's not just the drones, it's the iterative process. Ukraine

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Speaker 5: is able to test new technology in a matter of days,

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Speaker 5: make changes, and then put it on the battlefield, and

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Speaker 5: that's remarkable.

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Speaker 2: I want to ask you about what comes next, of

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Speaker 2: course I always do, and we're going to be talking

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Speaker 2: in less than a month here about a new administration.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump says, of course that he can end this war.

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Speaker 2: On day one, we spent some time with the Secretary

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Speaker 2: of State Anthony Blincoln. My colleague David Gora asked him

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Speaker 2: about Vladimir Putin's motivations, his intentions ahead of that moment.

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Speaker 7: Here's what he said, in his mind is the recreation

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Speaker 7: of a greater Russia. And you don't have to believe.

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Speaker 1: Me, just read what he said.

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Speaker 3: He's been very clear about it. He's failed in Ukraine.

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Speaker 7: That proposition that he could erase Ukraine from the map

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Speaker 7: subsume it into Russia has failed. And that's the result

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Speaker 7: of the incredible courage of the Ukrainian people. But it's

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Speaker 7: also a result of the dozens of countries that we

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Speaker 7: rallied in defense of Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: So take what he just said, Melinda, and tell me

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Speaker 2: how that meeting is going to go between Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: President Zelenski, and Vladimir Putin.

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Speaker 5: So, Joe, I'm not going to be very polite today.

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Speaker 5: I'm going to just ignore everything that Blinkin just said.

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Speaker 5: It's simply Cya. It's him trying to say that they

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Speaker 5: did a fabulous job. They did a B plus job,

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Speaker 5: maybe a B job, but they're over, They're done. I'm sorry.

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Speaker 5: Let's focus on January twentieth. So January twentieth rolls around.

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Speaker 5: Donald Trump is coming in and he says he's going

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Speaker 5: to solve the conflict in twenty four hours. Everyone knows

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Speaker 5: this is a campaign promise. His team has put together

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Speaker 5: three different ideas to bring peace to Ukraine. None of

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Speaker 5: them are very concrete. But the most concrete plan is

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Speaker 5: from Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg. He's going to be the

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Speaker 5: special envoy on Ukraine and Russia. And the Russians have

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Speaker 5: already said, don't even bother coming to Russia if you

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Speaker 5: come to Russia with.

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Speaker 6: This peace plan.

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Speaker 5: The answer is no. So it's going to be very hard, Joe.

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Speaker 5: The real question is how do you get Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 5: to come to the negotiating table. No one knows the

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Speaker 5: answer to this question. Zelinsky, the President of Ukraine is willing,

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Speaker 5: he wants to find a way to peace. But the

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Speaker 5: problem is that Putin thinks he's winning. He's making progress

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Speaker 5: in Kursk as we talked about, and he's making progress

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Speaker 5: in the don Boss as well. So my big question

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Speaker 5: for Donald Trump and his team is how do you

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Speaker 5: compel Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table.

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Speaker 2: Well, yes, and I know you don't want to deal

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Speaker 2: with Anthony Blincoln here, but if what he said is

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Speaker 2: correct in Putin's mind is the recreation of a greater Russia,

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Speaker 2: how do you get out of the blocks in any negotiation.

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Speaker 5: So the way that Kellogg says he's going to compel

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Speaker 5: Putin to the table is that they will freeze NATO membership.

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Speaker 5: That's sort of the sweetener to get the Russians there,

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Speaker 5: and if the Ukrainians don't come, then they will freeze

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Speaker 5: military assistance. But the Russians have already rejected that, so

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Speaker 5: you know it's really we're going to have to have

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Speaker 5: this conversation after January twentieth, and it's going to be

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Speaker 5: a lot. I mean, no one knows Joe, to be

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Speaker 5: really honest, no one knows what's going to compel Putin

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Speaker 5: to agree. I think it's right that that Putin bet

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Speaker 5: the House, he bet his legacy on destroying Ukraine. Blincoln

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Speaker 5: is totally right there, and he can't just step away

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Speaker 5: from what he's done, and his legacy depends on him

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Speaker 5: destroying Ukraine. Absolutely spot on right. But the question is

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Speaker 5: how do we get out of this?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Wow, I've only got a minute left here with Melinda Herring.

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Speaker 2: But there is news today from yes this White House,

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Speaker 2: John Kirby talking with reporters to say that another security

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Speaker 2: package is being prepared for Kiev. Do you have a

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Speaker 2: sense of what would be in it? Would it be

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Speaker 2: anything that could help?

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Speaker 5: So Joe, the White House has done a very good

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Speaker 5: job of trying to move as much military equipment from

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Speaker 5: our shelves to Kiev as possible as soon as possible.

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Speaker 5: And the fear is that Donald Trump is going to

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Speaker 5: ice all US assistants to Ukraine on January twentieth.

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Speaker 6: We simply don't know.

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Speaker 5: Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who's going to be the Special Envoy,

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Speaker 5: has been very hawkish and when he comes on TV

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Speaker 5: he sounds like me. But he's not the decision maker.

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Speaker 5: Donald Trump is the decision maker. So this White House

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Speaker 5: is moving as much equipment as possible. The Ukcredians need

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Speaker 5: air defense. That that's the key to getting through the winter.

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Speaker 2: Well, take it from someone who does this for a living.

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Speaker 2: There's only one Melinda Herring, and it's great to see you, Melinda.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much for being with us year from

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Speaker 2: the Atlantic Council as always, of course, senior Fellow the

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Speaker 2: Atlanta Council's Eurasia Center.

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Speaker 3: Melinda Herring on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: royd Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Hatreanna Lowen Crun is posted up in Florida right now,

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Speaker 2: following every move that's coming out of mar A Lago.

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Speaker 2: Joining us live from Palm Beach. Adred it's great to

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Speaker 2: see you. Hope you had a great holiday. How big

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Speaker 2: of a deal is this going to be when everyone

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Speaker 2: gets back to town.

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Speaker 6: Well, it's interesting.

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Speaker 8: I mean, not only is this the latest example of

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Speaker 8: political discussion taking place on X which we're seeing, you know,

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Speaker 8: quite a lot of an and truth, social and all

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Speaker 8: of the technology being this platform, but it really does

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Speaker 8: potentially set the stage for what could again be a

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Speaker 8: rocky rollout of Trump's proposed you know, immigration, immigration plans,

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Speaker 8: and keeping in mind that he's spent much of his

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Speaker 8: campaign railing against illegal immigration a lot less clear on

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Speaker 8: specific plans for legal immigration. The folks I've spoken to

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Speaker 8: have maintained there's a big difference that Trump has said

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Speaker 8: that he is for legal uh immigration, but the question

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Speaker 8: is to what extent and how's he dressed and how

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Speaker 8: so far has he addressed it specifically in the tech industry,

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Speaker 8: which he really hasn't done much of. So you know,

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Speaker 8: you have rama Swaman, you have must these are people

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Speaker 8: who you know, have had benefited from something similar. Completely

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Speaker 8: get odds with these far right people who are also

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Speaker 8: supportive of Trump, and.

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Speaker 6: So maybe we will see a rift.

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Speaker 8: I mean, this is really, as you said, happening before

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Speaker 8: our very eyes, but much bigger.

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Speaker 6: Than the rich.

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Speaker 8: I mean, this is a huge policy thing that we're

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Speaker 8: going to see.

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk tries to clarify with a sports analogy. He says,

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Speaker 2: this is like bringing the Jokic's or Wemby's of the

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Speaker 2: world to help your whole team, which is mostly American's

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Speaker 2: exclamation point.

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Speaker 3: Win the NBA.

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Speaker 2: Who couldn't understand that, Adriana, He says, thinking of America

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Speaker 2: as a pro sports team that's been winning for a

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Speaker 2: long time and wants to keep winning is the right

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Speaker 2: mental construct. I don't know if lawmakers are going to

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Speaker 2: see it that way, or Trump's supporters for that matter,

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Speaker 2: but enter Bill Gates apparently, who has had very strong

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Speaker 2: feelings about this. The founder of Microsoft, has talked a

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Speaker 2: lot about making it easier to get work visas and

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Speaker 2: bring in foreign based talent to Silicon Valley. And there

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Speaker 2: looks like there's news here, Adriana. You can tell me.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if Donald Trump intended to post this

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Speaker 2: on truth Social if you're with us. On Bloomberg TV,

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Speaker 2: he writes, where are you When are you coming to

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Speaker 2: the center of the universe? Mar A Lago Bill Gates

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Speaker 2: has to come tonight, Heydrianna, is that the guest of

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Speaker 2: honor this evening?

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Speaker 8: I mean, we'll see, I for one, have accidentally sent

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Speaker 8: things to the wrong people.

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Speaker 6: This could just be an example of that.

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Speaker 8: Perhaps it was supposed to be an individual message to someone.

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Speaker 6: He does mention where are you? He mentions x, so

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Speaker 6: perhaps a reference to Elon Musk. But of course the

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Speaker 6: bigger question, you know, as will there be this meeting?

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Speaker 8: And this of course would be just the latest in

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Speaker 8: a line of tech executives and going back to what

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Speaker 8: we were saying earlier, where there is now this division

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Speaker 8: with regard to the immigration and there has been a

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Speaker 8: similar rift on the same matter during the first administration

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Speaker 8: when Trump had had limited that HEB program drawing, which

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Speaker 8: drew the blowback from these tech people.

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Speaker 6: Now we're seeing this kind of coming together.

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Speaker 8: Trump has even said everyone wants to be my friend

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Speaker 8: or something along those lines, pointing to the meetings with

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Speaker 8: the Tim Cooks, you know, with the Zuckerberg's, and so

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Speaker 8: you know, if he is the latest, that could again

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Speaker 8: be the latest example of this coming together. But the

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Speaker 8: immigration stuff doesn't pan out the way that some of

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Speaker 8: these executives like musketc want it.

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Speaker 6: Maybe we'll see another.

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Speaker 8: Rift, but as of now, this is you know they're

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Speaker 8: lining up a seaman mar Alago.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, good thing. Nothing's complicated here. See this is

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Speaker 2: why Hedrian has posted up in Palm Beach. We need

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Speaker 2: somebody to be watching this on the daily. It's great

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Speaker 2: to see you get back to Washington safe and sound.

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Speaker 3: Hedriana Loone crime.

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Speaker 2: It sounds like Bill Gates and Donald Trump may get

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Speaker 2: together for a little koffefi at mar A Lago.

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Speaker 3: I wonder what Hailey Stevens makes of this whole story.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad to say the gentle woman from Michigan is

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Speaker 2: with US Democratic Congresswoman Hailey Stevens. Great to see you, Congressman,

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Speaker 2: and I hope you had a great Christmas, Happy Hanukah

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Speaker 2: and the rest. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 2: I don't have to go through the whole story again

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Speaker 2: for you here, I'm sure, but a conversation has been

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Speaker 2: prompted over the US of work visas. I'm guessing as

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Speaker 2: a Democrat you might see this as a positive development.

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Speaker 2: Will h one Bs and will Dreamers be involved in

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Speaker 2: any debate over border security in this new Congress.

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Speaker 9: Well, I'll just say that as a science and tech

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Speaker 9: policy evangelist, we welcome the conversation around h one bs

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Speaker 9: and high skilled workers, and in fact, as a member

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Speaker 9: of the Select Committee on China Competition that has been

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Speaker 9: in place for the last two years, this is something

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Speaker 9: that we heard over and over and over again from

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Speaker 9: stakeholders Joe that we need to stable green cards to degrees,

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Speaker 9: that we need a plan to attract and retain global

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Speaker 9: talent in this country. Our laws are based off of

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Speaker 9: last century. They are holding us back, and they are

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Speaker 9: impeding our competitiveness. And look, I'd say that Elon Musk

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Speaker 9: maybe knows a thing or two about it, given his

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Speaker 9: immigration history, and given his employment base, and given frankly

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Speaker 9: you know, the role that his companies are playing not

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Speaker 9: just here in the United States of America, but but

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Speaker 9: across the world, and so we need access to that talent.

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Speaker 9: I think that could be very interesting. It maybe be

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Speaker 9: a smart move of the Republican government majority if they

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Speaker 9: could do something for high skilled workers. And of course,

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Speaker 9: our dreamers who we care so much about, who've only

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Speaker 9: known in an American life, who were born here, who

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Speaker 9: are taxpayers, who are contributing to society, raising families. You

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Speaker 9: know we want that parody as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, congress Woman is correct Elon Musk once held an

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Speaker 2: H one B visa. But it does bring up the

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Speaker 2: bigger picture here. And in the short time that we

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Speaker 2: have to talk today, congress Woman, I'd like to ask

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Speaker 2: you about your hopes or maybe your concerns about working

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Speaker 2: with this Republican majority in the new Congress. Knowing that

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswami are going to be on

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Speaker 2: the phone, maybe picture I'm on one shoulder for the

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Speaker 2: speaker and Donald Trump on the other shoulder. Who's actually

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Speaker 2: run on the show here? And how do Democrats find

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Speaker 2: their posture in this Congress.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's certainly a.

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Speaker 9: New dynamic and Trump President elect Trump is the ultimate chameleon.

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Speaker 9: This is certainly a different approach to governing that we

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Speaker 9: saw during his first term, which frankly was a lot

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Speaker 9: of governing by Twitter and a lot of chaos and confusion.

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Speaker 9: Now it seemed like the oligarchs have come in some

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Speaker 9: people though with business.

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Speaker 6: Experience as well.

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Speaker 9: And look, I'll campaign ferociously, but when it comes to governing,

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Speaker 9: I want to find ways in which we can come together.

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Speaker 9: I'm really hoping that we continue to look at strategic competition,

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Speaker 9: that we look at innovation here in the automotive heartland

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Speaker 9: where I am in Michigan. Our automakers are watching and

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Speaker 9: they are global and they need access to the trade policies,

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Speaker 9: the materials, the work force in order to succeed. We

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Speaker 9: don't need disjointed policy and frankly, we need an outlook here.

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Speaker 9: So I do plan to use the power of the

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Speaker 9: pen and my abilities in the Congress to advocate for

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Speaker 9: the regional economy that I'm so proud to represent the

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Speaker 9: hard working men and women all across Michigan who are

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Speaker 9: contributing to incredible outputs and who are competing against the

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Speaker 9: likes of BYD. There are changes of foot in the

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Speaker 9: auto industry. It is a very aggressive time. We don't

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Speaker 9: need to start unnecessary trade wars at the expense of

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Speaker 9: people's bottom line, and that's something that we're seeing here.

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Speaker 6: So you know, we got a new.

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Speaker 9: Dynamic on our hand. Obviously, I'm in a minority party

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Speaker 9: in the House. It's a tight minority. I think they're

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Speaker 9: going to need us on occasion, So I'm going to

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Speaker 9: go for my scraps, and I'm going to make my points.

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Speaker 2: I believe all of that, and I hope that you'll

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Speaker 2: spend some time with us when you get back to town.

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Speaker 3: Haley Stevens, it's great to see you. Happy New Year.

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Speaker 2: In it advance the congresswoman, Democratic congresswoman from Michigan, Haley Stevens.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: Rounoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: With questions today in Washington, as we've been discussing here

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Speaker 2: on the program about immigration reform. Yes, I said immigration reform,

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Speaker 2: not just border security, with a big debate around H

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Speaker 2: one B visas, the work visas that bring talent from

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Speaker 2: other countries, foreign born talent to places like Silicon Valley

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Speaker 2: to help develop what has become, of course, the greatest

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Speaker 2: technology in the world. This is something Elon Musk knows

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Speaker 2: a lot about, as he had an H one B

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Speaker 2: visa at one point. He in the k Ramaswami of

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Speaker 2: course partners in the DOGE having at it with Maga

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Speaker 2: over the use of these visas. They both see a

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Speaker 2: need for reform and an increase in their event bailability,

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Speaker 2: which apparently is at odds with the MAGA world approach

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Speaker 2: to border security. This is all going to have to

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Speaker 2: be managed in the new Congress, which will be sworn

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Speaker 2: in one week from today, with questions as well about sequencing.

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Speaker 2: Do you do the Trump tax cuts first or do

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Speaker 2: you attack all the border.

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Speaker 3: No.

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Speaker 2: One hasn't answer to that yet, at least a real

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Speaker 2: answer that I've heard. Until ipso's got to work on this,

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Speaker 2: Cliff Young has an answer, at least with regard to

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Speaker 2: the American people. He is, of course the head of

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Speaker 2: US Public Affairs at IPSOS and with us here at

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Speaker 2: the table. Cliff, it's great to see you. Happy New

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Speaker 2: Year in advance. I hope you had a great Christmas,

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Speaker 2: thanks of the company. This is interesting priorities for Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump in the first one hundred days. The biggest priority

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Speaker 2: for everybody we've learned is inflation. But after that, it's

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Speaker 2: pretty clear what voters want with regard to sequencing, and

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Speaker 2: it's the border, right.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, It's immigration.

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Speaker 11: Immigration, immigration, especially among the Republican base and especially among

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Speaker 11: the megabase that is their critical issue now, based upon history,

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Speaker 11: based upon the empirical record, new administrations had between one

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Speaker 11: hundred days and six months to get.

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Speaker 10: Their agenda through. So I would expect the Trump.

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Speaker 11: Administration to push forward as fast as possible policies related

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Speaker 11: to immigration.

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Speaker 2: Okay, does anything in this debate lead us to believe

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Speaker 2: that it might turn out in policy. We've spent all

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Speaker 2: last year talking about border security. The deal that was

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Speaker 2: hammered out, the Lankford deal in the Senate was about

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Speaker 2: border security. Nobody talked about immigration or dreamers. Now we're

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Speaker 2: talking about all of it on the eve of this

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Speaker 2: Congress opening.

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Speaker 11: True, and the immigration issue is a fraud issue. It's

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Speaker 11: complex and nuance and public opinions nuance on it. The

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Speaker 11: vast majority of Americans are in favor of immigration, something

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Speaker 11: like seventy to seventy five percent. However, that's legal immigration, yeah, right,

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Speaker 11: And so the border issue becomes very important. Border policies

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Speaker 11: become very important. They suggest a way forward when it

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Speaker 11: comes to illegal immigration, a way to stop it. And

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Speaker 11: I believe the Trump administration will have to have some

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Speaker 11: sort of initiative or a series of initiatives relative to that.

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Speaker 10: If they're going to speak to their.

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Speaker 2: Base, talk to me about what else is on this list,

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Speaker 2: because the question that we've been facing is when it

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Speaker 2: comes to sequencing, you do the border first, you do.

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Speaker 3: Trump tax cuts. Taxes are way down the list here

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Speaker 3: at nine percent. What do you make of that?

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Speaker 10: They're abstract for people?

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Speaker 3: Now?

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Speaker 11: The taxes haven't been part of the debate for a

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Speaker 11: while now. You could think of the eighties and the

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Speaker 11: nineties when we all talk about middle class tax cuts.

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Speaker 11: They haven't been Really it's about cost of living. That's

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Speaker 11: why Trump won. He rode that wave in He has

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Speaker 11: to do something relative to that. And then it's immigration, immigration, immigration.

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Speaker 11: He really needs to throw a bone to the base,

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Speaker 11: and I expect him to do that within the first

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Speaker 11: six months.

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Speaker 2: Americans want the next president to restore trust and institutions.

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Speaker 3: You have found, but half are worried, Cliff about what.

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Speaker 11: Well, the half that didn't vote for Trump, right, and

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Speaker 11: so we have to understands very political in orientation in perspective.

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Speaker 11: This is a typical data point that we find after

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Speaker 11: every election. The vast majority of Americans want to come

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Speaker 11: back together, want to unify. Whatever that happens or not's

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Speaker 11: another question. But that at least is an aspiration at

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Speaker 11: this point.

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Speaker 2: That's interesting we talk about the other half because we

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Speaker 2: keep hearing that there was a mandate.

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Speaker 3: When you think.

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Speaker 2: About the sort of the rhetoric that we've heard around

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Speaker 2: this election, following the polling that you conducted over the

438
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 2: course of what two years leading us to that point,

439
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 2: how close to the truth is the analysis.

440
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 10: Somewhere in the middle. Isn't the truth always in the middle?

441
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 4: Sure?

442
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 11: So, on the one hand, Trump definitely goes in with

443
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 11: a mandate. He controls Congress. He obviously is headed to

444
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 11: the White House. That's very important. That allows him to

445
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 11: push forward an agenda in the short term. That is,

446
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 11: once again in the first half of the year, that's

447
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:01,919
Speaker 11: when most things happen.

448
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 10: But his win was minuscule, nothing more than.

449
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 11: A percent or two at the national level, it's one

450
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:12,360
Speaker 11: point five now, nothing more than a point to two

451
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 11: points in key swing states.

452
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 2: So is closed nothing more than a seat in the

453
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 2: House of Representative.

454
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 10: There we go.

455
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:18,959
Speaker 3: It's a very really a mandate.

456
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 10: It well, it depends how you define it.

457
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 11: He has control, yes, a tenuous control of both the Congress,

458
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 11: We're true, but both of the of the Senate and

459
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 11: the House, and he and he obviously he has the

460
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 11: White House.

461
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 10: There's something there, right, he can work with that.

462
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 2: An enormous amount done exactly, But to think if the

463
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,439
Speaker 2: wind blows they don't have a Republican majority in the

464
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 2: House could be a problem.

465
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 3: As we worked are we now.

466
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 11: We're a divided country. We're a fifty to fifty country.

467
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,919
Speaker 11: That's where we are today. That's what this election showed.

468
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 11: And I think that, you know, the point I would

469
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 11: want to make is is that even though it's fifty

470
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 11: to fifty public.

471
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 10: Opinions nuanced, Americans are nuanced. Even on immigration.

472
00:23:56,240 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 11: There's a continuum of what Americans think about it. They're

473
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 11: not absolutists on everything. They believe immigration, on the one hand,

474
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 11: is super important. They can see the importance of visas

475
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 11: like H one B one about fifty percent. But obviously

476
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 11: it's divided and polarized by whether you're blue or red.

477
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 3: H ONEB is going to be a tough sell though.

478
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 3: This is you know, this is jargon for.

479
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 10: A lot right now.

480
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 11: It's a bit of catnipt, negative catnip for the Republican base.

481
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,440
Speaker 10: But when it goes to the economic.

482
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,239
Speaker 11: Issues, when you frame it as such, Americans agree with

483
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 11: it obviously.

484
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 10: I think in the short term it sort of gunks up.

485
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 11: The system a bit because they don't have a lot

486
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,880
Speaker 11: of time to implement ultimately their agenda.

487
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 10: It's more of a distraction anything else.

488
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 2: How about when it comes to mass deportation. You ran

489
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 2: numbers on this, and even Donald Trump himself has indicated,

490
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 2: as he did in an interview on NBC following the election,

491
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: he's kind of worried about the way the optics might

492
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,120
Speaker 2: look here when the raids begin. Assuming that's how this

493
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,719
Speaker 2: is going to work. What do Americans think about this

494
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 2: before it happens.

495
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 10: It's very abstract right now. We have to understand then.

496
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 11: So when you ask Americans straight up, more than fifty

497
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 11: percent about fifty two, fifty three, fifty four depending on

498
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 11: how you ask it, are in favor of master spor deportations.

499
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 11: But then when you put sort of caveats there, we

500
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 11: put conditions there, like splitting families or hurting the economy,

501
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 11: hurting job generation, that support falls. In a general sense,

502
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 11: it goes into the forties and the thirties. Republicans are stalwarts.

503
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 11: They support it no matter what happens. But Trump is

504
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 11: very right the optics on this could be very negative.

505
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 11: You could imagine crying children being separated from their families.

506
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 11: This would not play well, especially if you're trying to

507
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 11: push through to gen in the short term. This could

508
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 11: once again cause problems in doing that. Actually, ipsos it's

509
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 11: one of the ballot questions we're cracking. Do you support

510
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 11: or oppose the immigration policies of the Trump administration.

511
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 10: We'll be looking at it.

512
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 11: Very closely because it has I think little upside and

513
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 11: a lot of downside.

514
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 2: Inflation is the biggest concern, the biggest priority for Americans.

515
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 2: If the Trump tax cuts combined with tariffs, assuming all

516
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 2: of this happens, create a reflationary scenario, what's that going

517
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 2: to mean for approval ratings for the new president?

518
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 11: I would just add in closing up the border and

519
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 11: causing you a problem on the economic side in terms

520
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 11: of labor, Yeah, that could really undermine his position. Once again,

521
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 11: I think the first one hundred days I'm looking at.

522
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 11: Usually in the first six months new administrations have a

523
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 11: mandate have pretty strong approval ratings, but any of these

524
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 11: things can undermine it.

525
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,159
Speaker 2: Boy, we've got a lot to learn of the new

526
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 2: year together. Think of the crazy stuff. You're going to

527
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: be polling in twenty twenty five. You're writing these questions already.

528
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 3: I'm guessing.

529
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,120
Speaker 10: Yeah, we're fucking already. It's going to be interesting.

530
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 2: A nice reflection over the course of the holidays with

531
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 2: Cliff Young, ipso's great to see you in. Happy new year,

532
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 2: come back and see us in twenty twenty five.

533
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 10: Yeah, thanks for having me.

534
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 2: As always, another year of breat analysis with Cliff Young.

535
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 2: Here on Bloomberg TV and radio.

536
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,479
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

537
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

538
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 1: rounoo with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

539
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

540
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

541
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,439
Speaker 2: I'm joll Matthew in Washington, where we've also got our

542
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 2: eyes here on natural gas prices. Sticking with Ukraine, European

543
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 2: natural gas price is specifically up over four percent today

544
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 2: after Vladimir Putin expressed doubts about a deal to maintain

545
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 2: gas flows to Europe via Ukraine. He says it would

546
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 2: be impossible to arrange a new transit contract before a

547
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 2: year end, when the current agreement expires. Let's go to

548
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 2: school right now with Bob McNally, who we learn from

549
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 2: every time we talk with the president of Rapidan Energy Group.

550
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 3: Bob, it's great to see you.

551
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 2: I hope you had a great Christmas and thanks for

552
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 2: coming back to talk to us on Bloomberg TV and radio.

553
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 2: How important is this development today? Knowing how little natural

554
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 2: gas we're talking about.

555
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 4: Hi, it's pretty significant.

556
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 12: The market was hoping to see that those flows resume,

557
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 12: and Europe is having a more of a normal winter.

558
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 12: It's cold, inventories have been drawn down, they've gotten lucky

559
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 12: in the last winter, so you know, it's a return

560
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 12: to normalcy and hiccups like this are unwelcome. And you

561
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 12: also have the incoming head of the European Commission, the Polish.

562
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 12: We'll have it for six months and they're going to

563
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 12: prioritize tightening sanctions, including on on guests even further. So,

564
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 12: you know, here we have a combination of geopolitics and

565
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 12: market forces, which are you know, surprising here with normal

566
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 12: weather to deliver a bit of a rude shock in

567
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:36,200
Speaker 12: the in the winter time here.

568
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 2: What's your broad view then, Bob, as we head into

569
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 2: the new year here and the Trump administration, which has

570
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 2: vowed to cut energy prices by half. We've talked about

571
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 2: the prospect here before, but there are other influences on prices.

572
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 2: It's a global market, as we've already been discussing.

573
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 4: It, sure is, Joe.

574
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 12: You know, the president has control over certain things. He

575
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 12: can and he will, with a stroke of a pen,

576
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:06,239
Speaker 12: ease the regulatory burden facing US energy and companies. He

577
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 12: can impose tariffs that can impact energy. He can tighten

578
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 12: sanctions on Iran. He has many powers and he will

579
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 12: exercise them starting on day one, and all of them

580
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 12: are important. Some of them would cause oil prices to

581
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 12: go down, as we've discussed, some go up, But as

582
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 12: you mentioned, the price of the oil is priced in

583
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 12: a global market, with global supply and demand fundamentals and

584
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 12: geopolitics driving that, and many of those forces out of

585
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 12: the direct control of the president. So the president's going

586
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 12: to rediscover he learned this, I think in his first term.

587
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 12: There's certain things he can control, there's certain things he can't.

588
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 12: But how much we produce in this country will be

589
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 12: a function of the global price, more so, I think

590
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 12: than any regulatory changes.

591
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 2: Will see well, you mentioned an important word there, and

592
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 2: that's geopolitics. To see the headline yesterday Israel directly striking

593
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 2: the capital of Yemen following these repeated attacks by hooty

594
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 2: rebels that have caused some pretty major disruptions in shipping

595
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 2: in the region. That's a pretty good example of what

596
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 2: can go wrong here. And I wonder how concerned you

597
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 2: are about this escalating.

598
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 4: We remain pretty concerned about that, Joe. As we've talked about.

599
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 12: You know, Phase one post October seven was Gaza, Phase

600
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 12: two was Hesbolat. Neither of those two regions, you know,

601
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 12: threatened much oil. Now we're moving to Iran and the

602
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 12: Uties in Yemen, and it's important after that latest strike,

603
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 12: the UTIs threatened Saudi Arabia. That's very important because the Huties,

604
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 12: remember they had lobbed missiles at Saudi Arabia and the

605
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 12: UA in the past, but they've had a sort of

606
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 12: a deal detent for the last couple of years. They

607
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 12: warn it this continues, that deal is off, and as

608
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 12: Israel goes after Iran, and as President Trump goes after Iran,

609
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 12: now we're starting to involve the most important energy resource

610
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 12: for both oil and LNG.

611
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 2: Well, with what you know about the Trump National Security team,

612
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 2: at least the names that have been mentioned, and I

613
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 2: know we have to go through the confirmation process for

614
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 2: several of them. Will this administration be more effective in

615
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 2: managing these issues than the Biden White House?

616
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 12: I think it will. It'll have a sharp change in direction.

617
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 12: Just about everybody I'm aware of coming in on the

618
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 12: NSC and the State Department for that matter, and Treasury

619
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 12: are hawks when.

620
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 4: It comes to Iran.

621
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 12: They look back at the first Trump term and they

622
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 12: see a success with the Iran sanctions policy. They look

623
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 12: at Biden is that they say he threw that away.

624
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 12: He allowed them to resume oil exports. Now they've got

625
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 12: the money and they're helping Russia in Ukraine of all places.

626
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 12: So they are more determined than ever and I think

627
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 12: able to go back and get leverage on Iran by

628
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 12: going after those exports. And I think China's already gotten

629
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 12: the message and is already starting to pull back. They

630
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 12: take most of that Iranian oil. They see the writing

631
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 12: on the wall, and I think this incoming team will

632
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 12: be effected early in imposing these sanctions on Iran.

633
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 2: I'm looking at Triple a's national average for a gallon

634
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 2: of unleaded three dollars three cents. That's a national number

635
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 2: here on the twenty seventh of December. Bob, I don't

636
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 2: mean to get too simple on you here, because I

637
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 2: know you're a pretty sophisticated analyst when it comes to

638
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 2: this stuff. But Donald Trump has essentially promised to turn

639
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 2: that into a dollar fifty a gallon if he cuts

640
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 2: prices by half.

641
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 3: Is that possible?

642
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 12: You know it's possible, but as we discussed last time,

643
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 12: it would have bad side effects. The only two ways

644
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 12: to get the oil price or gasoline price down to

645
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 12: a dollar fifty that I'm aware of, would be to

646
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 12: crash the economy into a catastrophic procession, and that would

647
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 12: not be enjoyable. Or you call up Saudi Arabia and

648
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,479
Speaker 12: you give this and put every barrel on the market.

649
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 12: I don't think they would do that. But as we discussed,

650
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 12: even if he could and a dollar fifty a gallon,

651
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 12: Joe US shale oil I E. Energy dominance dies. You

652
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 12: cannot have a dollar fifty pump prices thriving shall oil

653
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 12: sector period.

654
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 4: End of story.

655
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 2: People should know that you worked in the Bush administration,

656
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 2: the W. Bush administration, in the first term as part

657
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 2: of your very long resume, Bob. But one of the

658
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 2: things you were tasked with doing was dealing with utilities,

659
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 2: the electric grid. There's been a big conversation in Washington

660
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 2: about renewing the grid, about enhancing the grid, about protecting

661
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 2: the grid.

662
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 3: Will this new Congress be the one to do it?

663
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 4: You know? I hope.

664
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 12: So in some ways the stars are aligning because certainly

665
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 12: the oil and gas folks, the gas folks are very

666
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 12: aware of the permitting challenges. They've wrestled with this for decades.

667
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 12: In the way the Supreme Court has made life a

668
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 12: little easier in undermining some of the bureaucratic crust that

669
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 12: has developed.

670
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 4: And the clean.

671
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 12: Energy community, Joe, they realize you can't get solar and

672
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 12: wind desployed at scale unless you can connect it to

673
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:57,440
Speaker 12: the grid.

674
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 4: And now you have with AI. We want to get

675
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 4: Duke's connected to the grid for AI.

676
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 12: So in some ways you could have a coalition of

677
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 12: the willing, if you will. However, Joe, we're still somewhat

678
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 12: cautious at wrap it in about the odds of getting

679
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:14,800
Speaker 12: a bill done just due to partisanship in Washington.

680
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 4: It's too bad. It became close last year.

681
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 12: It's not a zero percent, but it's close to a jump.

682
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 2: Ball bureaucratic crust. What a great term. Would also be

683
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,320
Speaker 2: a great band name. People should also know Bob is

684
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 2: a world class drummer, and I hope you'll consider that right.

685
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,439
Speaker 2: That'd be a good punk rock bureaucratic crust. I think

686
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 2: we're onto something, Bob. It's great to see you as always,

687
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 2: Thank you, and happy New Year. In advance, come back

688
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 2: and see us in twenty twenty five.

689
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

690
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Epocarplay and then

691
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:54,280
Speaker 1: roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

692
00:34:54,320 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

693
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 2: We start our conversation with our signature panel, Rick Davis,

694
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 2: partner at Stone Court Capital, Republican strategist and Bloomberg Politics contributor,

695
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,959
Speaker 2: joined by Jeanie Shanzo, Senior Democracy Fellow with the Center

696
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 2: for the Study of the Presidency and Congress are Democratic analyst.

697
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 2: Great to have you both with us here on Friday

698
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 2: as we think big thoughts ahead of next week. Genie,

699
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 2: it's going to be an interesting moment for Democrats watching

700
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson, I guess be elected all over again or

701
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 2: will he what's your thought today?

702
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 13: Yeah, And Hakim Jeffries has been very clear this time around,

703
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 13: Democrats are not going to come and save Mike Johnson.

704
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 5: It is all up to the Republicans.

705
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 13: And I think, you know, at this point, I would

706
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 13: say more likely than not he gets narrowly re elected.

707
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 13: But he already has one person, Tom Massey, who has

708
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 13: come out publicly and said he will not vote for

709
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 13: Speaker Johnson, and so one more and he may have

710
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 13: a fight on his hands. And I think a lot

711
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 13: of this at this point depends on Donald Trump. Does

712
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 13: he come out publicly on truth, social or otherwise support

713
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 13: Mike Johnson or does he let him sort of flap

714
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 13: in the wind. And of course there's nobody else there

715
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 13: waiting in the wings at this point that we know

716
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 13: of who might be a contender, and so that works

717
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 13: to Johnson's benefit as well.

718
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 2: A lot of this has to do with posture, what

719
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 2: posture the party will take.

720
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 3: Will it be the party of No?

721
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 2: Well, there'd be opportunities to work together, and I think

722
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 2: maybe there will be rick with such a thin majority here.

723
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 2: We talked yesterday, as I mentioned, with Sean Caston, Democrat

724
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 2: from Illinois, had this to say about cooperating with the

725
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 2: other party.

726
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 14: I think you'll continue to find that Democrats are willing

727
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:39,240
Speaker 14: to work constructively with those Republicans on a bipartisan basis

728
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 14: as we have. But we'll have to see what they

729
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 14: bring together. There's you know, I like to remind people

730
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 14: that there were two fist fights in the House this

731
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 14: last term. They all involved Republicans, and trying to figure

732
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 14: out how they're going to get along together is going

733
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 14: to be is going to be a challenge for this

734
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 14: next term, at least in the House.

735
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:57,439
Speaker 2: Well, Rick, there's going to be a fist fight about

736
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:00,080
Speaker 2: the border and immigration, it seems in the outset of

737
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 2: this Congress, and based on everything we're hearing today that

738
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 2: could include actual legal immigration things like work visas and

739
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 2: H one b's.

740
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:08,319
Speaker 3: Is that where Democrats come in here?

741
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 15: You know, I think the first real test is going

742
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 15: to be that speaker's vote.

743
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 4: You know, the process matters here.

744
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 15: January third, nobody gets sworn in until they have a speaker.

745
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 15: Speaker actually swears in all the members of Congress, So

746
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 15: you got to get that done, and then two days later,

747
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:30,320
Speaker 15: January sixth, guess what you have to approve the election.

748
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 15: We remember that very well from the last go round.

749
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:37,799
Speaker 15: And so you've got one Republican, as Genie said, who's

750
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 15: already said I'm not voting for you. Two more and

751
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 15: it's a done deal. Right, you'll need Democrats and the Democratic.

752
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 10: Manoraly, wh has already said we're not going to go.

753
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 3: Bail these guys out again.

754
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 15: And so the question is does Donald Trump understand this process?

755
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 15: Does he want a rocky road to confirmation from his

756
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 15: own election, because that's what's happening on the sixth. Donald

757
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 15: Trump won, and so you know there's going to be

758
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 15: a lot of work done to make sure that we

759
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 15: don't have a fiasco on a third I think only

760
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 15: then will we decide, or can decide whether or not

761
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 15: there's going to be sort of a attitude toward cooperation,

762
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:18,799
Speaker 15: bipartisanship in the House Representative. Certain you'll see it in

763
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 15: the Senate and specifically around immigration, where you already had

764
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 15: a bill that was bipartisan that got knocked down by

765
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 15: Donald Trump.

766
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 3: He'll probably want to resurrect that.

767
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 15: So yeah, I think I think there's a lot of

768
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 15: wood to chop between now and when all these members

769
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:36,760
Speaker 15: are comfortably seated in their chairs.

770
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 3: Wow.

771
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 2: You imagine a world and I think the answer is yes, Genie,

772
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 2: in which there is no speaker elected in time for

773
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:46,399
Speaker 2: the sixth we can't certify the vote. I mean, we're

774
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 2: talking real chaos in that world. But let's just pull

775
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 2: it back from the ledge for a moment. We talked

776
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 2: recently with Tim Burchett, the Republican from Tennessee, and we

777
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 2: know how he feels about some of these things. He

778
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 2: was at CNN last week and said Johnson quote has

779
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 2: some tough decisions to me. But ultimately, Jeannie, it's going

780
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 2: to be decided who President Trump likes.

781
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 3: Is that the real contest?

782
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 6: I think it is.

783
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 13: I think if Trump comes out publicly in support of

784
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 13: Johnson in the short term, he will become speaker. Who

785
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 13: knows how long that will last. But you know, there

786
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 13: is a lot of push from the MAGA conservative base.

787
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 13: We heard Steve Bannon repeatedly the latest out at Turning

788
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:29,439
Speaker 13: Point in Arizona over the weekend dump Johnson. We saw

789
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 13: the Hill article where you have a lot of unnamed

790
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 13: sources saying three whoever Republicans going down to mar A

791
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 13: Lago telling Trump to dump Johnson. I think a few

792
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 13: things again working for Johnson. Number one is what Rick

793
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,800
Speaker 13: was just talking about, which is the chaos for Donald

794
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 13: Trump if they do indeed dump Johnson. There is a

795
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 13: scenario in which, if they don't have a speaker, you

796
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 13: see Joe Biden, Kamala Harris step aside, and President pro

797
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 13: Tem of the Senate Chuck Grassley, he actually becomes the

798
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 13: president in a short term. Now, many constitutional experts say

799
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 13: that won't happen. It's a gray area. There can be

800
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 13: an agreement in the House between the Dems and the

801
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 13: Republicans to count those votes, but I'm not sure that's

802
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 13: how Donald Trump wants to start out his second term.

803
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 13: And so that I think is gonna work for Johnson.

804
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,879
Speaker 13: But Joe, for us, it's gonna be a whole lot

805
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:23,439
Speaker 13: of fun sort of.

806
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 3: We'll see about that.

807
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:29,319
Speaker 2: I just love Jeanie has played this whole thing out

808
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 2: in her head already.

809
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 3: Rick, My god, this could be fascinating. But you're right.

810
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 2: Steve Bannon says he's got to go with regard to

811
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson.

812
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 3: But Rick, we keep hearing that.

813
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:41,839
Speaker 2: Nobody else wants the job, which is by definition job

814
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 2: security for Mike Johnson.

815
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 3: Is that right?

816
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 15: Well, I think every member walking around the floor, both

817
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 15: Democrat and Republican, want to be speaker. Don't believe what

818
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 15: they tell you. It's a powerful job. You get to

819
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 15: make a lot of decisions. Sure, you know it's a

820
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 15: tough thing to corral at caucus, but you know, Steven

821
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:04,240
Speaker 15: Scale and others are going to be ready to step

822
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 15: into the breed or there's a.

823
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 3: Vote of no confidence.

824
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 2: You wonder about a Jim Jordan or a Steve Scalise

825
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 2: as speaker, Genie, But didn't we already try that just

826
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:15,439
Speaker 2: this year?

827
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:18,280
Speaker 5: We did, We.

828
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 6: Did in the one hundred and eighteenth and again this year.

829
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 13: And you know what, how about we look outside the house?

830
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 6: What about Donald Trump Junior? Or well Elon Musk.

831
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 13: Is falling out of favor a bit with the MAGA, right,

832
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 13: But who knows who it could be at this point?

833
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 13: Maybe Laura Trump she doesn't want to be Senator of Florida,

834
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 13: Maybe she wants to be speaker.

835
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 2: I don't even know where to go with this, you know,

836
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:41,720
Speaker 2: I show up with things to ask Rick and Jeanie.

837
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 3: We go down another path.

838
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 2: So if I have this straight here, Donald Trump is

839
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 2: the Speaker of the House and the senator from Iowa

840
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 2: is the president.

841
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 3: Genie, is that what we get in the new year?

842
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 10: Well?

843
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 13: Maybe yeah, Donald Trump Junior and then Grassley you know, so,

844
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 13: I mean, who knows. Let's hope it doesn't happen, but

845
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,720
Speaker 13: it is going to be crazy to watch because being

846
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 13: Speaker of the House is really a short term job

847
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 13: at this point, and it has been for you know,

848
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 13: several cycles going back. Now it is a job that

849
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,479
Speaker 13: even Mike Jordan is saying nobody want or Mike Johnson, sorry,

850
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 13: is saying nobody wants to have.

851
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 3: So he'll just sit and slip on that one.

852
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 2: Rick, Can we settle one question right now when it

853
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 2: comes to the order the sequencing, when it comes to

854
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:34,760
Speaker 2: legislation on Capitol Hill? Do you do the border first,

855
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 2: do you do tax cuts first?

856
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 3: Or do you do them together?

857
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 2: It seems to me with this argument that's underway today

858
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 2: over H one B Visa's we have our answer.

859
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:43,279
Speaker 3: What do you think?

860
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 4: Yeah?

861
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 3: I think you go with what is the easiest thing?

862
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 15: Right and we know how complicated and difficult immigration is

863
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 15: going to be, but it's easier than the tax code

864
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 15: right now, and so you're going to need some time

865
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:58,239
Speaker 15: to prep that, and they're going to want to bill

866
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 15: on the floor in the first sixty days. And the

867
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 15: one that can get there is immigration. And it sounds like,

868
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 15: based on all the rhetoric that's coming out of mar

869
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 15: A Lago, could be more comprehensive than we would have

870
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:12,720
Speaker 15: initially thought. So, you know, cross your fingers, hope to die,

871
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 15: stick a needle in your eye. You may actually have

872
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 15: comprehensive immigration reform at the hands of Donald Trump. You know,

873
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 15: Nixon was the only one who could go to China.

874
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,720
Speaker 15: Maybe Donald Trump's the only one who can actually solve

875
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 15: immigration reform.

876
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 2: Unbelievable yet entirely believable. And this is what we're going

877
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:33,360
Speaker 2: to be talking about with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano

878
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 2: in the new year, our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors.

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Speaker 3: Thank you both. Great to have you for a great

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Speaker 3: conversation today.

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00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:42,959
Speaker 2: As always, they'll be back in the mix of course

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Speaker 2: next week as we walk up on that new Congress.

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Speaker 3: And the new year. Thanks for listening to the Balance

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00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 3: of Power podcast.

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00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:55,840
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already an Apple, Spotify,

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00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

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00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

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Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.