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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, back

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Speaker 1: at it on this Tuesday morning. The first Lady of

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Speaker 1: the pod, Kendri Middleton, is with us. The Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: of DJEN Nation, Stucky is here. And on today's episode,

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Speaker 1: we plant the flag for the wild Card round of

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Speaker 1: the NFL Playoffs. The postseason is here. I am fired up.

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Speaker 1: I know all of you are as well. Kendrick's deepest

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Speaker 1: thoughts are coming our way on this podcast, and of

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Speaker 1: course the main event Evans Tuesday Primer. If you thought

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Speaker 1: this season was bizarre, it's because it was. This is

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Speaker 1: straight from the primer. I recommend that before you place

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Speaker 1: any wagers, you go and read through this thing thoroughly.

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Speaker 1: One preseason division favorite ended up on it was the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: The fewest that we've seen since two thousand and eight.

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Speaker 1: Two teams with win totals of eleven plus before the

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Speaker 1: season missed the playoffs entirely, the Chiefs and the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: It's the first time that's happened since the year two thousand.

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Speaker 1: We have made it to the most unpredictable, postseason imaginable,

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Speaker 1: putting everyone on the spot here that is on this

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Speaker 1: podcast to open up the show. If your life depended

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Speaker 1: on it, who would you bet? Or perhaps you have

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Speaker 1: already to win the Super Bowl this year, Kendra your go.

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Speaker 2: I don't think anybody's going to be surprised with my answer.

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Speaker 3: Actually some people might be.

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Speaker 4: It.

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Speaker 2: People probably expecting me to say the Jags, but I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna say the Rams. Matt Stafford, absolute beast, he's got

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Speaker 2: the weapons, give me tight pants, Sean McVay any day.

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Speaker 3: I think that that's the best option here.

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Speaker 2: Whoever comes out of the NFC I think is going

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Speaker 2: to wind up winning the Super Bowl, But I'm going

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Speaker 2: to go with the quarterback with the most experienced left

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Speaker 2: in the game in such a way weird postseason stucky.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'd probably go the Rams, and they have to

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Speaker 4: play three road games most likely, but I have empower

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Speaker 4: rated number one. The first game they should win. I mean,

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Speaker 4: it's not that tough playing at Carolina and then what,

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Speaker 4: I just don't trust the Eagles offense. They have the

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Speaker 4: fewest flaws in my opinion. So if my life depended

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Speaker 4: on it, that's probably who I would go with the

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Speaker 4: AFC is completely wide open. I mean, the entire playoffs

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Speaker 4: is clearly wide open. But if I had to, if

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Speaker 4: my life is on the line, I'd go the team

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Speaker 4: I have power at a number one, which is the Rams.

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Speaker 2: Do we think the MVP thing changes anything though, like

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Speaker 2: the curse of getting the MVP and not being able

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Speaker 2: to win the Super Bowl? I think Mahomes was the

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Speaker 2: last person to do it in twenty nineteen. It see

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Speaker 2: the only person. That might be a question for Evan,

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Speaker 2: but that's been a hot topic of conversation around here.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how much reality is baked

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Speaker 1: into that, but it does seem like the guy that

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Speaker 1: wins the MVP typically wins it because he's putting the

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Speaker 1: team on his back, and that's not a Super Bowl formula.

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Speaker 1: You have to have the best team, not the best quarterback.

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Speaker 1: With that said, I think if my life was on

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Speaker 1: the line, I don't know that I could actually stomach

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Speaker 1: making it through the postseason waiting until I croak because

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Speaker 1: the team lost, So I would I would just take

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Speaker 1: the Bills and back Josh Allen and the team that's

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Speaker 1: been waiting to break through that of all of these teams,

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Speaker 1: there's one that feels like if not now then than never.

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Speaker 1: For how they're constructed and how great Josh Allen is.

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Speaker 1: He's the best quarterback in the postseason period, so I

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Speaker 1: think I would just back him. And mind you, I

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Speaker 1: still might end up betting the Jags, So it would

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Speaker 1: just be like, either take me all the way or

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Speaker 1: just off me a wild card weekend.

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Speaker 5: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: It's just a matter of if the Jaguars game plan

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Speaker 2: properly and decide to run the ball in a fishient amount,

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Speaker 2: because that's what concerns me is that you know that

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Speaker 2: one if they get the run game going, they are

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Speaker 2: one of the.

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Speaker 3: Best offenses in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: It's just a it's just a matter of if that's

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Speaker 2: what they're going to do against a bad run defense.

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Speaker 3: That's what makes me nervous.

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Speaker 1: To Stucky's point, he said that he's picking the Rams

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Speaker 1: because they're the least flawed team. I think there's not

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Speaker 1: a team that is in the postseason that doesn't have

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Speaker 1: glaring flaws. I mean, even the Rams. The Rams have

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Speaker 1: not been good in the last couple of weeks of

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Speaker 1: the season, not nearly as good as their standard and

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Speaker 1: their special teams as a disaster. So all of these

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Speaker 1: teams have problems. So I would just sell. I would

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Speaker 1: just say, if my life was on the line, there's

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Speaker 1: give me Josh Allen. I'll just ride the coattails of

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen. See what happens. We have a lot of

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Speaker 1: bets to get to. We have a lot of different

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Speaker 1: angles to talk about. Let's talk about something that happened

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Speaker 1: on Sunday Night football. How about the bookend to this

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Speaker 1: season for the Baltimore Ravens. Up by fifteen in the

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Speaker 1: final few minutes of the first Sunday night football game

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Speaker 1: of the season against Buffalo, they blow it. They lose

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Speaker 1: by one. And then the last Sunday Night football game

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Speaker 1: of the season, they allow Aaron Rodgers without dk Metcalf

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Speaker 1: to throw for eleven to fourteen one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 1: three yards in a touchdown in the fourth quarter. They

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Speaker 1: lose the game on a missed field goal hearts out

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Speaker 1: to Tyler Loop. The Ravens finished with the second worst

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Speaker 1: ats record in the NFL at six and eleven against

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Speaker 1: the closing line stucky, what is next for your star

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Speaker 1: quarterback Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 4: I had no idea, but I think that the defense led.

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Speaker 4: You know, the defensive performance the fourth quarter was directly

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Speaker 4: correlated to I mean one of the players it was.

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Speaker 4: The Steelers field is absolute garbage. He had Ousi a

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Speaker 4: fall down on one of the plays, but Kyle Hamilton

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Speaker 4: getting hurt was I tweeted it out as soon as

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Speaker 4: it happened. That's a death blow for that defense. I

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Speaker 4: can't get any pressure. That's the number one thing they

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Speaker 4: have to address. They all season. They got to. They

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Speaker 4: have to address their lack of pressure off of the edge.

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Speaker 4: But Kyle Hamilton has arguably the most valuable player in

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Speaker 4: the league on the defensive side of the ball. He

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Speaker 4: they allowed three point seven yards per play before he

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Speaker 4: went out, six point a after he left. He does

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Speaker 4: so much for them. I mean, I know that everyone

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Speaker 4: knows that he's good, but if like just the amount

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Speaker 4: of things that they do with him. He basically plays

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Speaker 4: the linebacker at all pro level, that's he's basically moved

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Speaker 4: to like almost that you know, fifty to sixty percent

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Speaker 4: of the time he's playing linebacker in the box. Does

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Speaker 4: so many different things for him. That was an enormous

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Speaker 4: loss in that game. And then the coaching, like you

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Speaker 4: cannot settle. That's the hardest stadium the NFL to kick at.

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Speaker 4: I said it right away. I was like, you can't.

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Speaker 4: You have to go get more yards here, even if

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Speaker 4: you just try to run for three or four yards

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Speaker 4: going backwards taking a knee was coaching malpractice in my opinion.

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Speaker 4: So it might be time. Hardball I think has done

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Speaker 4: a great job overall in Baltimore, but it just might

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Speaker 4: be time for a new voice and a change for both.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, it was disappointing because if the Raves got

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Speaker 4: in they could have made a run. That's how wide

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Speaker 4: open the AFC is. So yeah, congrats to the Steelers

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Speaker 4: for getting it done. But I thought the coaching. The

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Speaker 4: Hamilton injury was massive, and I felt bad for Luke,

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Speaker 4: but just putting it on like a young kicker in

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Speaker 4: that stadium without trying to get any more yards at

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Speaker 4: fourteen seconds in a timeout was awful. But yeah, just

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Speaker 4: the Raves have had some heartbreaking ends to seasons in

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Speaker 4: recent years, and that is added to the list.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the script writers nailed this one, Kendra. When

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Speaker 1: you look at the way the season started and then

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Speaker 1: the way that it ended. Sunday Night football for the

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Speaker 1: Ravens got us off to this tremendous start to a

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Speaker 1: wildly unpredictable season. The Ravens were off, and then to

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Speaker 1: end the season that way, it was just I.

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Speaker 2: Have something crazier than I've been looking at the last

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Speaker 2: twenty four hours. The Patriots missed the one seed because

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Speaker 2: the first game of their season they lost to the

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Speaker 2: Las Vegas Raiders, who now have the first pick in

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Speaker 2: the NFL Draft. They missed the one seed because they

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Speaker 2: lost to the mother freaking Raiders.

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Speaker 3: Think about that, as.

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Speaker 5: Said it yourself, I think that's a first in this

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Speaker 5: podcast history.

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Speaker 3: So dude, how nuts is that?

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Speaker 5: Like?

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Speaker 3: That's crazy?

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Speaker 5: That is crazy.

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Speaker 1: Honestly, when you go back and look at some of

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Speaker 1: the weird things that happened in Week one, baiting just

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Speaker 1: not even using that as a reference point to the

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Speaker 1: rest of the season. You know, let's have fun, let's

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Speaker 1: celebrate Week one. I'm not sure how much any of

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Speaker 1: it actually matters. What we see these teams are, they're

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Speaker 1: some of which are gelling for the first time. They

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Speaker 1: haven't played in months. Nobody plays in the preseason extensively anymore.

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Speaker 1: Week one of the NFL season, as as time goes on,

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Speaker 1: I will value that week less and less and it's

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Speaker 1: a note that I will document in my trusty notepad

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Speaker 1: here for next season. I just I think week one

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Speaker 1: throws us all for a loop because I mean, go

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Speaker 1: back and look at that game the Raiders. If the

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Speaker 1: Raiders played the Patriots right now, what would the line

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Speaker 1: be on that put the game on the moon?

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Speaker 3: It would be yeah, exactly, not even close.

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Speaker 5: Stuck you, how do you value that?

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Speaker 1: As far as looking back at the way that we

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Speaker 1: and the way that we analyze week one, it would

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Speaker 1: be be best for those that try and generate our

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Speaker 1: own numbers to just punt what you see in the

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Speaker 1: first week of the season.

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Speaker 4: No, I mean I wouldn't punt on it. It's a

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Speaker 4: data point. But like weird things happen every week in

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Speaker 4: the NFL. Maybe it's there's a little more of arrands

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Speaker 4: in week one because of the preseason. But I mean

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Speaker 4: you can go, I'll pull up I mean, look, I'll

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Speaker 4: just I'll go to the NFL. Let's go to NFL

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Speaker 4: scoreboard on the Action app, and I'll pick a random week.

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Speaker 4: Let's go week twelve. So Week twelve, this is when

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Speaker 4: the Lions went to overtime with the Giants, the Jaguars

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Speaker 4: went to overtime with the Cardinals. The Cowboys beat the Eagles.

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Speaker 4: Like this, this is this is the NFL. Every single

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Speaker 4: week you're gonna have I mean, think about the Falcons.

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Speaker 4: The Jets came the first team in NFL history to

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Speaker 4: lose the five straight games by twenty three or more points.

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Speaker 4: I think their last five games is lost by twenty

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Speaker 4: four to twenty eight, twenty seven, thirty one and twenty

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Speaker 4: eight something like that. The week before that they beat

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Speaker 4: the Falcons, and if the Falcons would have won that game,

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Speaker 4: they would have won their division. So like the Jets

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Speaker 4: beating the Fed, there's just weird things that that happen

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Speaker 4: in the NFL. So I mean, you never want to overreact.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a little more weirdness to Week.

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Speaker 2: One, but it was only really yeah, two upsets though,

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Speaker 2: Like it was the Vegas game and then the only

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Speaker 2: other one that you could call an upset, which looking

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Speaker 2: back at the rest of the season now the Chargers

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Speaker 2: beat the Chiefs in Brazil. Those are literally the only

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Speaker 2: two upsets. So the Patrios truly were the only team

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Speaker 2: to fumble as of like favorite in Week one.

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Speaker 5: And that Chargers one.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, good was that the Chargers game in hindsight

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Speaker 1: isn't even an upset.

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Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying. It's like the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Chargers will be favored against the Chiefs right

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Speaker 1: obviously now with the Ludicon, but I mean even with

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Speaker 1: my homes go ahead, Stucky.

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Speaker 4: Uh yeah, I mean the next week, Jake Browning let

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Speaker 4: a huge comeback against the Jags. So looking back at that,

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Speaker 4: that's pretty funny. So yeah, we weird things happen. But

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Speaker 4: I will say that the Patriots, I mean, if you

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Speaker 4: look I played, it's not people I plant the flag game,

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Speaker 4: but I played the Chargers plus three and a half.

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Speaker 4: I ran my numbers. I'm just I'm slightly blowed free.

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Speaker 3: The Chargers this weekend.

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Speaker 4: Patriots, of course, you know I mean that that that

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Speaker 4: Week one game, This is it. I haven't seen this

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Speaker 4: go around much on a lot of NFL playoffs get

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Speaker 4: covered so extensive. That Week one game against Gino Smith

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Speaker 4: was the last time the Patriots didn't face a backup

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Speaker 4: quarter Week one. I'm kidding, but they've they here are

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Speaker 4: the quarterbacks that they faced this year. So they lost

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Speaker 4: to Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers at home. So they

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Speaker 4: faced they only faced one team with a winning record

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Speaker 4: all year. That's it. It was the Bills, and they

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Speaker 4: spill them one.

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Speaker 3: Dard had Jackson.

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Speaker 2: Dart had more wins against teams above five hundred than

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Speaker 2: Drake May this year.

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Speaker 4: But they they faced I saw, I got ta tweet this.

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Speaker 4: I think this was a good context because if you look,

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Speaker 4: they had fourteen wins, eleven came against either backups, benched quarterbacks,

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Speaker 4: or rookies. Sixty percent of their snaps came against you know,

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Speaker 4: bottom tier quarterbacks, rookies or backups. The charters, on the

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Speaker 4: other hand, only like twenty eight percent of their snaps,

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Speaker 4: So the Patriots had almost double the amount of snaps

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Speaker 4: against like bottom tier quarterbacks. I mean, you're talking Tua

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Speaker 4: who was benched. Rattler. So they faced the st the

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Speaker 4: Saints with Rattler Ward Gabriel, They faced the Browns with Gabriel,

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Speaker 4: They faced the Bengals with Flacco, the Ravens, the Markets

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Speaker 4: hurt after twelve plays. They face Huntley Pennix Baker when

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Speaker 4: he turned back into a pumpkin, and they also were

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Speaker 4: missing all the rest of their offense fields Yours and

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Speaker 4: they sat everyone Dart Cook like it goes on and on.

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Speaker 4: So the other thing, the Chargers do a good job

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Speaker 4: preventing explosive passing plays. You need to do that against

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Speaker 4: the Patriots. The Patriots have also been pretty lucky, like

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Speaker 4: twenty fumbles, only lost eight. They've recovered nine of fourteen.

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Speaker 4: They're eighteen fourth down the one point three EPA per

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Speaker 4: play on fourth down, and their opponents are ten of

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Speaker 4: thirty negative points sixty three EPA pri play on fourth downs.

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Speaker 4: Their opponents have gone and then May has gotten away.

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Speaker 4: He's been tremendous, should be the MVP in my opinion,

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Speaker 4: but he's gotten away with some throws. He has the

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Speaker 4: eighteen turner worthy plays in the year only eight interceptions.

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Speaker 4: And this is I think this there is some validity

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Speaker 4: to an experienced quarterback taking on a quarterback making their

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Speaker 4: first playoff start. I mean, if you look historically those

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Speaker 4: the quarterbacks making their first start. I think I have

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Speaker 4: the numbers here. It is the thirty one percent against

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Speaker 4: the spread. Depending on how you cut it, you can

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Speaker 4: remove rookies, you could include rookies. I mean, it's been

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Speaker 4: Horendous and Herbert twelve two and one when catching over

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Speaker 4: a field goal. But he has playoff experience. May does not.

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Speaker 4: There could be some nerves. I do think that has

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Speaker 4: some value.

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Speaker 6: I think the.

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Speaker 4: Chargers will make the Patriots drive the field mintor will

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Speaker 4: throw some different looks at May. I think he might

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Speaker 4: make a mistake or two here and then in the

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Speaker 4: red zone. That's when the Charters have been elite. The

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Speaker 4: forty five percent touchdown percentage this year, that's fourth in

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Speaker 4: the league. Last year on their minter they were forty

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Speaker 4: five percent, which was second the league, and the Patriots

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Speaker 4: redsman defense horrendous thirtieth in the league, and they played

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Speaker 4: a clown schedule. So the Chargers offense, which can get

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Speaker 4: bottled up at times inside of twenty, they might be

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Speaker 4: able to finish off your eyes here. So I just

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Speaker 4: don't think that this line should be over three. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: give me, give me the Chargers catching over a field goal.

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Speaker 4: But I do think that there there is some signal

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Speaker 4: with these quarterbacks who have playoff experience versus ones making

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Speaker 4: the first one. That doesn't mean Drake make won't be

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Speaker 4: incredible and can't win this game, but I do think

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Speaker 4: that there is something to that, and I.

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Speaker 2: Just don't maybe that Herbert is like terrible and massive moments.

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Speaker 4: So, I mean, what's the the sample size is so

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Speaker 4: small and it's like one of those things where like

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Speaker 4: everyone says this this, this coach can't win it all,

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Speaker 4: this quarterback can't win it all until they do.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: He was bad in big moments in college. He obviously

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Speaker 2: blew that lead to the JAG. I just worry about

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Speaker 2: him having a negative clutch gene.

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Speaker 3: But what does play in their favor?

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Speaker 2: I think outside of the forty nine ers, the Patriots

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Speaker 2: are probably the most hurt team in this postseason.

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Speaker 3: Does anybody disagree with that or have like a.

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Speaker 5: Different forty nine ers by a mile?

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Speaker 3: I said, other than the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 4: Oh okay, then the I would argue, maybe the package

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Speaker 4: it's not listening the Packers for impact through.

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Speaker 3: I literally go other than the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 4: Fact, I would maybe you say that the Packers because

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Speaker 4: of Parsons impact.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's a good shout.

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Speaker 4: Craft you know they have they have a lot of

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Speaker 4: other injuries. But yeah, I mean the Chargers also basically

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Speaker 4: they they basically didn't play any backups. They played like

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Speaker 4: the Commanders and the Colts. And they're fully healthy. They

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Speaker 4: played six playoff teams, they played a much tougher schedule,

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Speaker 4: So the Patriots are hard to rate because of that schedule, Right,

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Speaker 4: you have to give them credit for taking for going

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Speaker 4: out and destroying a lot of these teams.

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Speaker 2: And handling the last time their schedule was this bad,

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Speaker 2: they won the Super Bowl, though, yeah.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't mean they care with the Super Bowl. But

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Speaker 4: I just don't think there's I mean, if you did

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Speaker 4: from a DVA perspective before, you have to remove Week

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Speaker 4: eighteen because the Chargers sat everyone. Yeah, prior to Week eighteen.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the Pats were fifteenth THEBOA and I think

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Speaker 4: the Charters were sixteenth. Like, I just don't think there's

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Speaker 4: that much of a difference between these two teams. And

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Speaker 4: the Pats don't get elite pressure, which might provide a

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Speaker 4: little relief for Herbert behind that very broken offensive line,

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Speaker 4: which is the concern of mine, a huge concern on

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Speaker 4: the road with the state of that offensive line. But

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Speaker 4: I also don't think that it's meaningless that the Charters

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Speaker 4: got to buy last week. So this is late in

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Speaker 4: the season, right, and the Patriots didn't. They tried in

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Speaker 4: that game, and I think rightfully so, but there's there's

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Speaker 4: some I think there's more value late in the year

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Speaker 4: after a full schedule of resting, prepping for your potential opponent,

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Speaker 4: and ensuring full health. And Kendrick's right, we'll see on

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Speaker 4: some of these these injuries, especially on the defensive side

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Speaker 4: of the ball for the Patriots, and how healthy they are.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I think over three, I think this line

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Speaker 4: should just be three. So I took a three and

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Speaker 4: a half.

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Speaker 1: We might have ourselves a nice little community bet here.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers plus three and a half do feel like

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Speaker 1: the right side. Stucky laid out all of the points

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Speaker 1: for why the Patriots defense could be overrated. How about

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Speaker 1: the other side. The Patriots have not faced a top

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Speaker 1: ten defense on their schedule since Week eight against the

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Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. It has been since pre Halloween that we

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Speaker 1: have seen the Patriots truly tested in terms of their

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Speaker 1: offensive output.

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Speaker 5: So they're getting it in terms.

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Speaker 4: Of Browns who are not the same defense as well.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm Stucky.

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Speaker 2: I can't say for me, I say anything. I'm just

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Speaker 2: like I hope that they win so that I don't

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Speaker 2: have to go anywhere else next week. At this point,

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Speaker 2: I'm like, I could stay home cool.

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Speaker 1: I mean, guys, that three in the hook. Both things

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Speaker 1: can be true here. We can have the Patriots. Patriots

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Speaker 1: could go on and win the Super Bowl and not

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Speaker 1: cover this line, So it's very possible. I do think

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Speaker 1: we've got ourselves a nice little handhold here on the

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Speaker 1: LA Chargers. One other note for the wild card games

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Speaker 1: before we get into the deepest, darkest recesses of Kendrick's mind.

380
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Speaker 1: I made the ghastly mistake the reason why I was

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Speaker 1: stuck on the forty nine Ers being the most injured

382
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Speaker 1: team going into the postseason. I bet them too early.

383
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Speaker 1: I got drunk on the plus three at even money odds,

384
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Speaker 1: and it is now up to plus four and a half.

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Speaker 5: So we got some.

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Speaker 1: News about brock Perty He's dealing with a shoulder issue.

387
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Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna miss the game or anything,

388
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Speaker 1: but potentially that's moving the number here. Tatum three on defense.

389
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Speaker 1: They're already banged up defense. He's out for the season.

390
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Speaker 1: We're still unclear about Trent Williams. George Kittle's still on

391
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Speaker 1: the injury report, so is Ricky Pearsall. So obviously I

392
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Speaker 1: feel awful about the bet that I've made. We will

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Speaker 1: sit and live with it and hopefully this is just

394
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Speaker 1: one of those instances where AH closing line value, what

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Speaker 1: does it really mean? Obviously I'm not going to be

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Speaker 1: ahead of it there, Kendra, Do you want to talk

397
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Speaker 1: me off the ledge on this is there?

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Speaker 5: Do you have any love for San Francisco?

399
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Speaker 3: Why this fuck did you do this?

400
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:34,360
Speaker 7: Well?

401
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 5: I just told you.

402
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Speaker 1: I got drunk on the plus three team number at

403
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Speaker 1: even money, and I've been a forty nine ers backer.

404
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Speaker 5: I rate them highly.

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Speaker 1: I think that their offense, if they're able to put

406
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Speaker 1: up points against Philadelphia, Philly's gonna have a hard time

407
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Speaker 1: matching that because of how their offense, even against a

408
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Speaker 1: bad d could get stuck in the mud. So that

409
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Speaker 1: was the reasoning behind it. Obviously I should have waited

410
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Speaker 1: plus four and a half, but I'm not gonna bet

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Speaker 1: them twice.

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Speaker 2: So it's just somehow you sit here after watching their

413
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Speaker 2: game the other night where we had multiple, multiple, multiple

414
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Speaker 2: TV timeouts, commercial timeouts, injury timeouts in that fourth quarter

415
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Speaker 2: and guys just absolutely having to be like yanked off

416
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Speaker 2: the field.

417
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Speaker 3: I don't get how that was a.

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Speaker 5: Bad I mean, I did hand up. That was a mistake.

419
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Speaker 1: I fully admit that, but I was also encouraged by

420
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Speaker 1: the fact that everybody's just focusing on the fact that

421
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,359
Speaker 1: they only scored three points or how bad their defense

422
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Speaker 1: has been. On the year, they held Seattle to thirteen,

423
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Speaker 1: So as bad as their defense has been, it's been

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Speaker 1: better on the road. Philadelphia has not been a they

425
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 1: have not been a trustable favorite. But obviously it was

426
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Speaker 1: a bad bet, so you know, it's hard for me

427
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Speaker 1: to just hard for.

428
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Speaker 3: Me to justify it might not be.

429
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Speaker 1: It might it might not be at the results, but

430
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Speaker 1: right now it is a bet. Yes, it was about

431
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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna because it was a bad idea.

432
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Speaker 4: My speech on the key numbers, but we won't revisit that.

433
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Speaker 5: I deserve to hear this again.

434
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 4: It wasn't gonna go to two and a half, so

435
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 4: you were way better off waiting on this. Trent Williams'

436
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 4: status obviously looms large. But yeah, I thought I was

437
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,440
Speaker 4: gonna be interested in the forty nine ers. I mean

438
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 4: four and a half maybe small, but I mean the injury,

439
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 4: the injuries. All their linebackers are hurt. I mean they

440
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 4: already lost Fred Warner, but Butthune, he's out for the year.

441
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 4: De Winters in ankle injury that didn't look good. And

442
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 4: then Luke Gifford they're starting Sam he had as a

443
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 4: quad injury that they might be without there all there.

444
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 4: They already had backup linebackers. It might be without all

445
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 4: of them, so we'll see how that goes. I think

446
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 4: Pearcell is actually big too, because the one weakness on

447
00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 4: this Eagles defense is there their cornerback two position. So

448
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 4: I think that he could have a big game if

449
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 4: he's in there. But if you look at this forty

450
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 4: nine ers offense, yeah, they put up some gaudy numbers,

451
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,400
Speaker 4: but if you dig in, like to end the year,

452
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 4: party was red hot. Against the Seahawks, an elite defense

453
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 4: three points at home, couldn't do anything. Against the Browns

454
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 4: in Cleveland, an elite defense couldn't do anything. They had

455
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 4: two hundred and fifty total yards. They averaged three point

456
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 4: eight yards per play. Don't be fooled by the final scores.

457
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 4: The Browns gifting him a lot of short fields.

458
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 6: You know.

459
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 4: Against the Panthers they didn't and who were a below

460
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 4: average defense, they didn't look great. So like they put

461
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 4: up all these numbers on the Colts without any corners

462
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 4: the Titans and the Bears with an impoverished defense, and

463
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 4: then the Cardinals who had no one left. So I

464
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 4: think the forty nine ers offense got a little bit

465
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 4: overrated down the stretch. And you know, without Trent Williams,

466
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,439
Speaker 4: it's not the same unit. They still can't run the ball.

467
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 4: And then without their li this might be a game

468
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 4: where the Eagles offense can actually get some things going.

469
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 4: I don't know. This is like the immovable force meets

470
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 4: an unstoppable object. That's the Eagles offense first to forty

471
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:11,719
Speaker 4: nine Ers defense.

472
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 2: I just prefer Rabbits is getting so sadly.

473
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 1: I've been I've been said well before we started recording,

474
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 1: I was I I look for opportunities.

475
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:23,719
Speaker 4: Uh.

476
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 1: And this isn't a justification I bet a bad number.

477
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,400
Speaker 1: I mean, it is what it is. But I look

478
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:32,200
Speaker 1: for opportunities to bet into lines where I can eliminate

479
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 1: the veig I feel for my and this is Major

480
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 1: League Baseball betting, NBA betting, NFL betting.

481
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 5: College football.

482
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 1: I have my best chance of profiting in the long

483
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: term is not paying the books their tax, and so

484
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 1: I look for those opportunities on numbers and teams that

485
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: I like I knew I was gonna be on San

486
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 1: Francisco when I got the even money at the three.

487
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:57,959
Speaker 1: You know I that I chose to bite on it.

488
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 1: So that was the reasoning behind it from a mass perspective.

489
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 1: But I mean none of that is obviously I would

490
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: pay up to get the four and a half at

491
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 1: this point minus one ten.

492
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 5: It's it's just a bad bet.

493
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:09,679
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, you know your best the best thing

494
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 4: you can do to improve your chances to get the

495
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:17,360
Speaker 4: best number possible. But I will say that the other

496
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,439
Speaker 4: thing is Fangio's own Shannan in the past. I mean,

497
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 4: Shannan has faced to me there's an offensive coordinator or

498
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 4: head coach five times he's yet to clear fifteen points.

499
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 4: And like the Fangio defense was, I mean pretty much

500
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 4: this version of it was created to slow down and

501
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 4: contain everything that the Shanahan offense does. So that's another

502
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 4: factor here. I mean, what the the forty nine ers

503
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 4: hope here? They do have a huge coaching advantage when

504
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 4: it comes to sala versus patula. I mean, you have

505
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 4: to attack this forty nine Ers defense over the middle

506
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 4: of the field. The Leagles don't really throw the middle

507
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 4: field they just throw like a million hitch routes. They

508
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:04,919
Speaker 4: it's it's the ugliest offense in the league. So what

509
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 4: these for the forty nine ers at the personnel is

510
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 4: don't I'm not sure because they cannot get any pressure

511
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 4: if they don't have any linebackers left. It's not in

512
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 4: the elite corner room. So the hope here for Sala.

513
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 4: He's got to throw some you know, simulated pressure, some

514
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 4: disguised looks, but what he's mostly gonna do is play

515
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 4: a ton of zone. He's gonna play a ton of two.

516
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 4: I was gonna keep everything in front of him, and

517
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 4: then he's gonna dare the Eagles to finish off drives

518
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 4: with touchdowns. They've done that at a leee level. This year.

519
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:37,880
Speaker 4: There's seventy percent touchdown percentage in the red zone. Can

520
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 4: they maintain that? I don't think so. I mean, last

521
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 4: year their offense was way better with a way better

522
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 4: coordinator and they were at fifty eight percent. So maybe

523
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 4: there's some regression there. But maybe the forty nine Ers

524
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 4: defense is just that bad that they continue scoring touchdowns.

525
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 4: But that has to be the forty nine Ers game plan.

526
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 4: The Eagles offense will go into a shell for extended periods.

527
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:03,239
Speaker 4: They'll put themselves in prison and in offense jail, and

528
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,880
Speaker 4: they won't score for a quarter or two. The other

529
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 4: quarter or two, you got to hold in the field

530
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 4: goals because this is an elite Eagles defense that I

531
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 4: think will contain that forty nine ers offense on the road,

532
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 4: So you're gonna have to win a low scoring game.

533
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 4: There's some wins, so I think the player is the

534
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,679
Speaker 4: under I don't want to spoil Kendres. I'll say some

535
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 4: of that for Kendre later, but yeah, there's a lot

536
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 4: of things pointed the Eagles here. I am surprised. They

537
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 4: also got a buy last week, so I think that's valuable.

538
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 4: They stay at home. How to buy forty nine ers,

539
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 4: you know, coming across the country. That's not in that.

540
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 4: Because the Eagles had some injuries, they get to heal

541
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 4: up come into this a lot healthier rest up late

542
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 4: in the year. But I was I still was semi

543
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 4: surprised they didn't play their starters. They chose health. But

544
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 4: this is this the NFC's wide open. That could mean

545
00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 4: the difference between an NFC championship game at home. We're

546
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 4: not and Sirianni for what it's worth, these five and

547
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 4: er in the playoffs at home, oh and two on

548
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 4: the road. But yeah, I wish you well.

549
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 5: Thank you. I appreciate that I've been my number ones ages, my.

550
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 1: My numbers, which create the baseline for me, for I

551
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 1: don't bet blindly off of that, nobody should, but just

552
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: creates a baseline.

553
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 5: Have been high on the forty nine ers all year.

554
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 1: The forty nine ers have covered at a rate of

555
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: sixty three percent, so I have been on the plus

556
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 1: end of that, and hopefully we're just we just need.

557
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 4: One number and move on. It's okay. I take pant

558
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 4: numbers all the time, not all sometimes.

559
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 5: Thank you. I appreciate thoughts and prayers with yours. Truly.

560
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 1: We are about to dive into our plant the flag games.

561
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: Forty nine ers plus three will not be it for me,

562
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 1: But first a word from our very own Kendrim Middleton.

563
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 8: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with Draftking Sports Book,

564
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 8: where new customers can bet five dollars and get three

565
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 8: hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins.

566
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 8: Staying on the action and use bonus bets on Draftking

567
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 8: same game parlays for a shot at an even bigger

568
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,719
Speaker 8: payout to get started to use promo code favorites when

569
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 8: signing up with DraftKings again, use code favorites when signing

570
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 8: up and bet five bucks to get three hundred back

571
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 8: in bonus bets.

572
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 3: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.

573
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 1: All right, Kendra, we kick it over to you before

574
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 1: we plant the flag. What is on your mind today?

575
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 3: But this is.

576
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 2: Something that's been haunting me literally all season long.

577
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 3: The Meal Mix Podcast.

578
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 2: If you guys don't know what the Meal Mixed Podcast is,

579
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 2: it's a Panther's fan podcast that's been going on for

580
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 2: probably like a decade now, I would assume, And before

581
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 2: the season started, I want to say it was like

582
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 2: three weeks into the season, maybe their wives were like,

583
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 2: all right, listen, you need to start spending time with

584
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 2: the family. No more Meal Mix Podcast. Meal Mixed Podcast

585
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 2: gets canceled. Panthers now go on.

586
00:30:58,880 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 3: To be in the postseason.

587
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 2: So my question for you guys is if your wives

588
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 2: were like, whatever brings you joy that you do with

589
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 2: the boys, whether it's like gambling for you guys specifically,

590
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 2: or if it's like you guys do fantasy.

591
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 3: Football or you do a podcast.

592
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 2: If your team was in such a drought and you

593
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 2: knew it and could get ahead of it, would you

594
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 2: give up your gambling, your fantasy football, your podcast, whatever

595
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 2: it is sports related that you do with the boys

596
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 2: for your team to get out of like a historic rut?

597
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 3: Would you give it up?

598
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 2: Because this is I literally think this is embarrassing. I

599
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 2: think about the Meyomicks podcast at least twice a day.

600
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 5: That's an insane number.

601
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 2: Like genuinely, maybe more like I'm not kidding, but I

602
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 2: daily am like, yo, I wonder what the guys from

603
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 2: Yami's are doing right now.

604
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 5: This is an easy one for me.

605
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 1: I mean, my team has been in a rut since

606
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 1: I was at the last playoff win for the Miami Dolphins.

607
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 5: I was in high school when it happened, was like

608
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 5: that long ago.

609
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: That was the year right, oh, two thousand. It was

610
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 1: Jay Fiedler against Peyton Manning down to.

611
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 3: The wire, And do you give up gambling?

612
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 5: I would not know. I would not.

613
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 1: I wouldn't. I'm used to the misery. I can live.

614
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 1: I've been I've made it this far. I'm doing fine,

615
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: So I just I would.

616
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 3: Come for super.

617
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 4: No.

618
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 5: No, I just wouldn't. I just wouldn't.

619
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:28,719
Speaker 4: I don't know like you say. You say what you

620
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 4: do with your boys or what you do. My entire

621
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 4: life is betting. Like literally from the time of wake up, Well.

622
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 2: Their life was me mix, but that was a side hustle.

623
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 4: That is my entire life, betting, like what I do recreationally,

624
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 4: what I do professionally, what I enjoy doing, what I

625
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 4: have to do everything, how what I do with my friends,

626
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 4: like the It consumes my life. So now the.

627
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 2: City of Baltimore is about I wouldn't give it up

628
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 2: for twenty straight Super Bowl Duckies.

629
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 5: Teams also experience. You've experienced multiple Super Bowls, so I think, yes,

630
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 5: it's easier for you to.

631
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 4: Get so No, but I think that the Meomicks guys

632
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 4: should come back like this would have been No, would

633
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 4: have been a perfect marketing opportunity.

634
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 3: I see that they tweet beautiful yeahs had to die.

635
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 2: They literally did their like floating raft on fire down

636
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 2: the Nile River.

637
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 3: It's over.

638
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 2: You guys can never come back. You freed the sad

639
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 2: Cats just let it die.

640
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 4: They have a tweet. The refs are killing any chance.

641
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 4: The Panthers haven't winning this game. The refs were bad

642
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:41,959
Speaker 4: for in that game, but they are still tweeting. But like,

643
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 4: I would have never known about the Mayomics pockets. This

644
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 4: didn't happen, so like it was an opportunity for them

645
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 4: to maybe cover. But no, it seems like that that

646
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 4: ship has sailed.

647
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 3: Celine Dion, my heart will go on to close it

648
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 3: out there.

649
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 4: But would you give up breeding shrimp for a Jags Lucky?

650
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 2: Yes, Yes, absolutely, I would. Literally I would sell a kidney.

651
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 2: And I'm not even kidding, like I would do you

652
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 2: Dney anything.

653
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, super Bowl. I don't think you guys understand.

654
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 2: Like you like you can at least these Kravits hang

655
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: your hat on the fact that the Dolphins were good

656
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,359
Speaker 2: at one point. Stucky's experienced multiple Super Bowls. I don't

657
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 2: think you guys understand just the pain and misery that

658
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:29,320
Speaker 2: I have gone through as a sports fan. It's actually

659
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 2: I'm I'm mentally this. I could sue the Jaguars for

660
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 2: like mental distress.

661
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, You're gonna have one kidney the rest of your

662
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 4: life if.

663
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 3: It meant dude. Yeah, honestly, does anybody.

664
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 4: In jam.

665
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,839
Speaker 5: You need to you need to check your priorities.

666
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 2: I don't know, I feel like the Jaguars are my priority.

667
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 3: You want to see what hangs above my desk?

668
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 1: Please hold should be beaten down by I sh'll be

669
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 1: beaten down by them.

670
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 5: But by the time.

671
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,919
Speaker 3: I was born in this and it is framed, Oh

672
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 3: my god.

673
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 4: All right, Well, then would you if your passion is

674
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 4: the Jags, would you give up the Jags for one

675
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 4: to win the Super Bowl this year so you get

676
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 4: to experience it, but.

677
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 3: Then give them up like you're never fed.

678
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 4: Again, Like you can't root for them, you can't watch

679
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 4: any of their games.

680
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,359
Speaker 3: Can I go to the Super Bowl this year?

681
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:30,919
Speaker 4: You get to enjoy it all they win the Super Bowl,

682
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 4: but then the rest of your life there's.

683
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:33,879
Speaker 3: No do I get to go to the game?

684
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 4: Sure?

685
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 3: Then yeah, I would give it up.

686
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 4: Wow. See I think that part of like part of

687
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 4: the what makes the Super winning a Super Bowl suite

688
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 4: is now some tends. You know, if you're a brownspan

689
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 4: or a Vikings fan, like there's you could There's been

690
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 4: many that have died without diehards that have without seeing one.

691
00:35:55,719 --> 00:36:00,040
Speaker 4: But like the journey of the the heartbreaks, the the

692
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 4: way that season's end, the bad years, the rebuilds, the

693
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 4: different quarterback and then that journey of like suffering through

694
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 4: it as a fan, and then you never know when

695
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 4: you're gonna get there.

696
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:12,720
Speaker 5: But uh.

697
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 6: Maybe.

698
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 4: I mean, look, the Jags have they have a wind,

699
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 4: they have a window here. I mean, like you look

700
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 4: at some of their young talent, Liam Cohen, not a lot.

701
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 2: Of guys that they have to worry about in the

702
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 2: off season bringing back.

703
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 3: That's like the big thing for me is the contrary

704
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:29,959
Speaker 3: some of these.

705
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 4: Young secondary pieces that are coming along like Monterret Brown.

706
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 4: Antonio Johnson out of nowhere is playing amazing.

707
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 2: I think he's now They're doing all of this without

708
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 2: their first round draft pick, yeah, which.

709
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 4: Is basically they just don't have him this year. In

710
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 4: Travis Hunter.

711
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 3: Said the same thing as me. Yeah, what's that? Evan

712
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 3: just said the same thing as me.

713
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:54,279
Speaker 4: Yeah. I mean, so they have a window here. But

714
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,280
Speaker 4: it's an exciting time in Jacksonville. I'm I'm just excited

715
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 4: for the crowd there.

716
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 3: You guys will get to see me after the game

717
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 3: on Sunday.

718
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 4: So I wis night game? Now, that game, I think that's.

719
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 3: The most big Like that should be Monday night for sure.

720
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 4: Like I think Pats Chargers is cool Packers Bears is cool,

721
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 4: but I think like the most.

722
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 2: We're getting Texan Steelers on Monday Night, Like that's who

723
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 2: cares the most.

724
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 5: Arguably the worst game of the weekend.

725
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 4: The most entertaining game is I mean, and look at

726
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 4: the total is Jackson Buffalo. So I wish that was,

727
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 4: but it'll be, it'll be. It'll be great regardless.

728
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:37,320
Speaker 5: So we will get Kendra on the Sunday Night episode.

729
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 3: Correct, Yes, my mom's gonna pick me up.

730
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 5: This could be.

731
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 1: Let's get to our Plant the Flag games presented by

732
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 1: Draft Kings, where the crown is yours.

733
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 4: It shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here. Okay,

734
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 4: you're really.

735
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 5: Planning your flag in that deck, Kendra.

736
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,839
Speaker 1: There was a tease for this earlier in the episode,

737
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers and the Eagles.

738
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:05,320
Speaker 5: Are you on the total?

739
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 3: I am. I'm gonna plant my flag on the under

740
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 3: in this game.

741
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 2: Forty nine Ers obviously hurt top to bottom in the Eagles,

742
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 2: We've talked about it all season. Go a half without

743
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 2: being able to score, This feels pretty high for me.

744
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the under forty four and a

745
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 2: half in this game.

746
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 5: Yep, I like it. I was looking at.

747
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 1: I'm looking at potentially playing just the slate of unders.

748
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 1: I've got two right now that are on the sheet,

749
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,879
Speaker 1: Carolina LA being one of them, the other LA team

750
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: and the New England Patriots going under there. And this

751
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 1: is another one that I have circled as a possibility

752
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 1: if the forty nine ers can't move the ball against

753
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 1: an elite defense. And part of the reason why I

754
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 1: like San Francisco in this game to begin with is

755
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:50,240
Speaker 1: that I don't trust the Eagles offense at all because

756
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 1: most of the season they've been trash. Then the under

757
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 1: this game should tilt under. So in potential weather in

758
00:38:58,080 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 1: the Northeast, you never know what that's going to look like.

759
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 1: I haven't seen the updated report, but I like it. Stucky,

760
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 1: your thoughts on that and you're playing the flag, Yeah, I.

761
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 4: Already played, Dad that under forty four is key. Forty

762
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 4: five is also key, So shop around, Evan. If you

763
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 4: look this up, look up wild card weekend unders in

764
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 4: outdoor games over what is our database? Go back to

765
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:29,480
Speaker 4: two thousand and three outdoor games wild card weekend total

766
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 4: above forty four unders have like been a smash. So

767
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 4: since two thousand and four, outdoor wildcard games are forty

768
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 4: nine and twenty three to the under sixty eight percent

769
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 4: at forty one or higher forty two and fourteen, how

770
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:50,840
Speaker 4: about forty four and higher forty four and a half,

771
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 4: So above forty four, which is a key forty three,

772
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 4: forty four to forty five our key numbers, but I

773
00:39:56,360 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 4: mean above forty one. It's forty two and fourteen, so outdoor,

774
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,279
Speaker 4: there's gonna be some wins here as well. It's so

775
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 4: early to know exactly what the wins are gonna look like,

776
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,239
Speaker 4: but there could. It looks like there's gonna be impactful

777
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 4: gusts which could impact field goal kicking and downfield passing.

778
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 4: And uh yeah, uh, I like that under a lot.

779
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 4: I'm going to plant my flag on the Jags first

780
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 4: half money line. So I think that this. I think

781
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 4: that I don't mind the Jags for the full game,

782
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,840
Speaker 4: but I'm more confident in them early in this game.

783
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 4: And part of that reason, well, number one, they have

784
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 4: been incredible in the first half of games all season,

785
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:48,760
Speaker 4: and a lot of that is the Liam Cohen script.

786
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 4: And like, if you look so Jags they are, they're

787
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 4: offensive numbers. They're all top ten first quarter top ten

788
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 4: same with the are like eighth in EPA per play

789
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 4: in the first half, eighth in the first quarter. In

790
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 4: the second half, the Bills are number one, fourth quarter

791
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 4: number one, the Jags EPA play twenty first in the

792
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 4: second half, thirty first in the fourth quarter. Now, part

793
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 4: of that is because they've had a lot of blowout wins.

794
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 4: They've benched some starters in the fourth quarter. So let's

795
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 4: just focus on the quarterbacks. Lawrence in the first half

796
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 4: thirteenth in EPA plus completion percentage of her expectation fourteenth

797
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 4: and adjusted EPA per play thirteenth and success rate. So

798
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:36,280
Speaker 4: around twelfth, thirteenth, fourteenth, Allen in the first half twenty

799
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 4: fifth an EPA plus completion percentage over expectation twenty first

800
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 4: and adjusted EPA per play twenty fourth and success rate.

801
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 4: How about the second half, Lawrence thirty second, EPA plus

802
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 4: completion percentage of expectation twenty first and adjusted EPA per

803
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:55,720
Speaker 4: play twenty first and success rate Allen second first, second first.

804
00:41:56,680 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 4: A lot of that is because of the script, and

805
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 4: a lot of that is because the Bills they will

806
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:05,480
Speaker 4: come out and they run too much. You know, they

807
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 4: want to establish the run, and the Jags about a

808
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 4: top five run defense all year, and then what happens is, oh,

809
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,960
Speaker 4: we're either behind. They've been slow starters in their big

810
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:16,800
Speaker 4: games almost all year, and then you won Lee Shallon

811
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 4: and this Jags pass defense has played a lot better.

812
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 4: I mean since week eleven, I think number two in

813
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 4: EPA per dropback allowed. I talked about Antonio Johnson is

814
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 4: playing really well. They no longer have to play thorn

815
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 4: Hill monterk Brown has really came on with the injury

816
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 4: to Jordan Lewis. Their second is playing better. But you

817
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 4: look at the schedule and you're like, who have they

818
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 4: really played? So I could see Allen in the second

819
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 4: half from a trailing game script leading the Bills to

820
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 4: a comeback victory. He's been incredible in the fourth quarter,

821
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 4: incredible in the second half. The Bill's slow starters because

822
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 4: they want to run the ball. Their script isn't great.

823
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,919
Speaker 4: The Cohen script is great. The Bill's run defense is bad.

824
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 4: I think the Jags can take advantage when they can

825
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,919
Speaker 4: run the balls. Kendricks said. The entire offense stems from there.

826
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 4: Lawrence has been incredible since Week eleven, and a lot

827
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 4: of that improvement has come against zone that's what the

828
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 4: Bills do. They're gonna run a ton of zone here.

829
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 4: So I like the Jags behind that home crowd, with

830
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:16,799
Speaker 4: the Cohen script, with the Bills leading too much on

831
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 4: the ground game early against a good run, dye to

832
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:21,800
Speaker 4: jump out, have a lead at the half, try to

833
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 4: hold on, but wouldn't be surprised if Alan comes from

834
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 4: behind making some magic. So give me the Jags first

835
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 4: half money line.

836
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 1: That's a really creative way to play the Jaguars. It's

837
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:39,799
Speaker 1: hard to get to the window on Jacksonville. I want

838
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:46,240
Speaker 1: to Maybe I get there. But Josh Allen I'm terrified

839
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:50,759
Speaker 1: to bet against him and the Bills as just as

840
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 1: a team overall, I have more experience in these situations.

841
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 5: Allen has not.

842
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 1: Been good on the road in the playoffs or the

843
00:43:58,239 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 1: Bills in general.

844
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 5: I don't think they've it's been good.

845
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 4: It's the Bills deep the Bills to run them down.

846
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 1: They haven't won a playoff game on the road, I

847
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 1: think since since Thurman Thomas was their running back.

848
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:08,720
Speaker 5: So it's been a minute.

849
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean a lot of that's the Chiefs. But

850
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:14,839
Speaker 4: the another thing, if you want the who's the most

851
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 4: profitable home team against the spread? This year. The Jags

852
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 4: first half. The Jags they covered in the first half

853
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:25,359
Speaker 4: by an average of seven and a half points per game.

854
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 4: That's incredible at home. The Bills three and five against

855
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 4: the spread in the first half on the road, not

856
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 4: covering by an average of four points per game. So yeah,

857
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 4: I h a lot of people, by the way, there's

858
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 4: a lot of people that are I'm hearing saying the

859
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 4: Jags rushing attack is broken, because if you look so

860
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 4: since Jacobe Myers and then Strange came back around week eleven,

861
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 4: the Jags offense has been I mean their their second

862
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 4: in drop back EPA or third, I should say, fourth

863
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,399
Speaker 4: in drop back success rate, But over that stretch they're

864
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 4: thirty first in rush success rate. So you look over

865
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 4: since week eleven, you're like, all right, the Jags are

866
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 4: the second worst rushing offense. So that's not good against

867
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 4: what's wrong with the Jags rushing offense? I don't think

868
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 4: there's anything wrong with it. If you just focus on

869
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:22,240
Speaker 4: the first half, they're tenth. Those numbers are being skewed

870
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 4: by the fact that you know they've won what eight

871
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 4: in a row. I think they're eight and one over

872
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 4: the past time games, six of those nine games have

873
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:33,800
Speaker 4: come by at least two touchdowns. They were just running

874
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 4: the clock out in the fourth quarter. Their rush success

875
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:39,720
Speaker 4: rate in the fourth quarter since week eleven is twenty percent.

876
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 4: It's the worst by far. So it's just like, hey,

877
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 4: we're up seventeen, who cares and you have backups in

878
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 4: you're just running into the wall and punning it. So

879
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:48,800
Speaker 4: their rushing offense is still fine, it's top ten in

880
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 4: the first half since week eleven. It's their passing offense

881
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:54,799
Speaker 4: that has taken off with Jakobe Myers and strange back.

882
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:57,279
Speaker 4: So I think that they can run the ball fine

883
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:59,360
Speaker 4: here against the Bills who have a really bad run defense,

884
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 4: and the screens. Screens can work against his Bills team,

885
00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 4: so I think Cohen Early has some nice creative screens

886
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 4: drawn up. I think the Jags also have a special

887
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 4: team's edge. Who's kicking for the Bills this week? We

888
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:16,400
Speaker 4: don't even know. The Jags have cam little good punter,

889
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 4: good return game. So I think there's a lot of

890
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 4: reasons to like the Jags. The reasons to like the Bills,

891
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 4: and it's valid is just like, Okay, the Bills are

892
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 4: probably going to get behind and they're going to say, Alan,

893
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 4: go win the game. He's more than capable of doing that.

894
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, sometimes dudes just win games in the playoffs in sports, Kendra,

895
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:37,799
Speaker 1: any pushback on that for your squad.

896
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 2: No, because I don't really trust who the Bills are

897
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 2: right now. But I also really don't trust the Jaguars.

898
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:48,360
Speaker 2: So the Jags seem like the better side just because

899
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 2: of the momentum that they have in the season that

900
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:53,960
Speaker 2: they've had. But it's hard to get behind a team

901
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:55,359
Speaker 2: that you haven't trusted for a long time.

902
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:56,759
Speaker 3: So I do I think that I agree with you.

903
00:46:56,800 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 3: I think that's a creative way to play it.

904
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:01,800
Speaker 2: The thing that makes me nervous is that Trevor Lawrence

905
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,959
Speaker 2: is the guy who, when he has a lead, can't

906
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 2: keep it, and when he doesn't, has the game of

907
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 2: his life.

908
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 3: So that's the only thing that concerns me.

909
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, My main concern with the Jags is because I mean,

910
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 4: we've just been a Jags podcast all year. I love

911
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 4: them all. I bet them the win the division to

912
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 4: go over to make the playoffs. I saw it with

913
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 4: this Jags team, and I didn't think they were going

914
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 4: to be this good, especially on offense, and I didn't

915
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 4: think that Jocoby Myers is gonna be this good. But

916
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 4: I've always believed in Cohen. They're the hottest team in

917
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 4: the league right now. But you look and since Myers

918
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 4: got here, I mean, they blew that game against the

919
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 4: Texans and Davis Mills. They here's who they beat to

920
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 4: close the ear the Cardinals in overtime, the Titans, the Colts,

921
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:59,239
Speaker 4: the Jets, the Colts again, the Titans again. The game

922
00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 4: that gives me confidence is when they went to Denver

923
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:05,040
Speaker 4: and destroyed the Broncos. But other than that, I mean,

924
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 4: it's the Colts twice with all their injuries, the Titans twice,

925
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:13,360
Speaker 4: the Jets who are tanking, the Cardinals with all their injuries.

926
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 4: So but there's two games in there the two months

927
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 4: when they destroyed the Chargers and they destroyed the Broncos

928
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:22,919
Speaker 4: in Denver that do give me confidence in this Jags team.

929
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 4: But the schedule definitely has been beneficial down the stretch.

930
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 4: But I can't wait for that game.

931
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 1: I will be planting my flag on the Carolina Panthers.

932
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 1: Plus ten against the l A Rams had to fit

933
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 1: the sad Cats in here.

934
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:40,319
Speaker 5: A lot of.

935
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 2: Crazy to me that you trust them more than you

936
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:43,400
Speaker 2: trust the Jags.

937
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 1: Uh well they Well it's a much fatter number for

938
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 1: one playing a flag.

939
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 4: On Eagles minus four and a half.

940
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, Garrett, and then and then watching the Eagles

941
00:48:55,640 --> 00:49:00,160
Speaker 1: would win by four, I'd lose both bets. That'll be great.

942
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 1: A lot of reasons to like the Panthers at this number.

943
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,920
Speaker 1: This is not about this is not about trust versus Jacksonville.

944
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:08,719
Speaker 5: I'm probably gonna s I'm probably gonna end.

945
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:10,840
Speaker 1: Up betting the Jag So just it's just going to

946
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 1: take me a minute. I'm like slow crawling my way

947
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 1: to the window on that. We have ourselves a ten,

948
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,840
Speaker 1: the seventh most common outcome in the last ten years.

949
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:20,280
Speaker 5: Okay, we're talking key numbers.

950
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 1: The Panthers off a loss this season eight to zero

951
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:28,879
Speaker 1: against the spread road favorites of four more in the playoffs,

952
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 1: thank you, Evan, one and eight ats. So there are

953
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 1: some strong trends that point to the underdog here. And

954
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 1: then from a football perspective, the Rams have not been

955
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:40,840
Speaker 1: playing their best ball as of late. They just fired

956
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: their special teams coach two weeks ago because they were

957
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:45,600
Speaker 1: in such disarray. They're one and two straight up in

958
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:48,879
Speaker 1: their last three. They had a just a three point

959
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:51,840
Speaker 1: lead over the Cardinals headed into the fourth quarter in

960
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 1: Week eighteen. I don't love the fact that old man

961
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:56,840
Speaker 1: Matt Stafford had to play deep into that game. The

962
00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:59,960
Speaker 1: Panthers have a one day rest advantage after they played

963
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:02,879
Speaker 1: on Saturday, and I think you can downgrade the Rams.

964
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 1: We already saw this in Carolina indoor team playing outside

965
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:09,399
Speaker 1: on the East Coast. McVeigh for the record has been

966
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 1: good on the East Coast, but still historically a tough

967
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:18,319
Speaker 1: spot for NFL teams. Los Angeles just one win in

968
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 1: their last four road games. I'm taking the Panthers at

969
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 1: plus ten.

970
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:28,880
Speaker 4: That fascinating game for I don't have much confidence in

971
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:32,839
Speaker 4: the Panthers offense. I'm actually leaning this is another under.

972
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:36,880
Speaker 4: I'm leaning outdoor under. You might say, like, let's look

973
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 4: at the first meeting. It was thirty one to twenty eight.

974
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 4: That game just got ridiculous because I mean the Rams

975
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 4: started the game with a kick return to like the thirty,

976
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:48,480
Speaker 4: and they had a thirty yard touchdown drive. Then there

977
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:51,960
Speaker 4: was a pick six. The Panthers scored on a third

978
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,080
Speaker 4: and eight, a fourth and three bomb, and a fourth

979
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 4: and two bomb like so, and the game got just

980
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 4: was kills from that. I don't have much faith in

981
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 4: this Panthers offense doing much, but they're going to like

982
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:08,360
Speaker 4: control the clock like they had like an eight minute

983
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 4: drive in that game that went like twenty eight yards.

984
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:15,359
Speaker 4: The most fascinating matchup to me in that game is

985
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:19,920
Speaker 4: the Panthers defense against the Rams offense. Now, the Panthers

986
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 4: defense is a weird bunch, like some weeks to look

987
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 4: really feisty. Even though they don't have a lot of talent,

988
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 4: they can't get pressure, and a lot of that is

989
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:33,120
Speaker 4: their defensive coordinator Evro, who I really like he a lot.

990
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 4: He runs a lot of cover three base, but they

991
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 4: disguise coverages more than any team in the NFL, close

992
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:42,440
Speaker 4: to fifty percent at the time. Stafford has historically struggled

993
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:46,799
Speaker 4: against those teams, and he's also struggled against his You

994
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:50,440
Speaker 4: look at where he struggled this year, it's against his

995
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:55,920
Speaker 4: ex coordinators Morris and Evra, who was with McVeigh for

996
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 4: a while, and by the way, against Evro this year,

997
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:05,400
Speaker 4: the McVeigh, Shannan Tree, Purdy Love Stafford did nothing against

998
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:07,480
Speaker 4: the Panthers. They had their worst. They had their as

999
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 4: far as interceptions are concerned. Now you might say, and

1000
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 4: you can go back. I mean when Stafford has played

1001
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 4: Morrison even in the past, he's not had great games,

1002
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 4: you might say, well, look stuck. The Rams put up,

1003
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:24,360
Speaker 4: you know, twenty eight points with a pick six and

1004
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 4: they averaged over seven yards per play. Yes, the Panthers

1005
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:32,240
Speaker 4: were missing all of their starting linebackers Morig, their starting

1006
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 4: safety was suspended, their best corner, J. C. Horn was

1007
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 4: out with a concussion. Remember going into that game and

1008
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:43,400
Speaker 4: the spread was ten. The Panthers defense was a shell unit,

1009
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 4: an absolute shell unit. I mean, their best safety, their

1010
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:48,320
Speaker 4: best corner, the two best linebackers all didn't play in

1011
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:51,480
Speaker 4: the game. So their defense is going to now there's

1012
00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:54,840
Speaker 4: some injury questions in linebacker, but their secondary is going

1013
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 4: to be much healthier this time around. So that I

1014
00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:01,319
Speaker 4: wouldn't say, okay, because the Rams did this in the

1015
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 4: first meeting, that it's going to be as easy this

1016
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:06,880
Speaker 4: time around, because the Panthers should be much healthier on defense.

1017
00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:13,280
Speaker 4: But I find that interesting that that ero the familiarity

1018
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:19,040
Speaker 4: with the McVeigh offense, with Stafford and who we struggled with,

1019
00:53:20,200 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 4: and how that plays out, and if there's some mcday

1020
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 4: adjustments we've seen mcday in the past. Just go like, hey,

1021
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 4: I'm going to go with a completely different formation tendencies

1022
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 4: for this entire game. I'm fascinated on that side of

1023
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 4: the ball. So the Panthers defense might actually be a

1024
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 4: little bit more feisty than people might think here, So

1025
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:38,879
Speaker 4: uh take I could only take the ten, but I'm

1026
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 4: also leaning under there. I don't know. That's my rambling thoughts.

1027
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:44,920
Speaker 2: I have a random complaint that back to back Saturdays,

1028
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:46,280
Speaker 2: we're just getting the NFC.

1029
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,600
Speaker 4: Why you you you need you need mix it up

1030
00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:54,240
Speaker 4: on days.

1031
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 3: I just want to see one of each.

1032
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:58,279
Speaker 2: I would like this to be a little bit more

1033
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 2: split back to back South. I've watched NFC football, and yes,

1034
00:54:02,880 --> 00:54:04,719
Speaker 2: I think whoever wins the NFC is going to win

1035
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, but the AFC is more entertaining right now.

1036
00:54:08,400 --> 00:54:11,400
Speaker 2: Very random, very weird complaint, just back to back some Saturdays.

1037
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:12,840
Speaker 3: I've been like, why then you gotta.

1038
00:54:12,600 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 4: Have short rest for certain teams just to appease Kender,

1039
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:17,239
Speaker 4: But maybe we'll we'll put a call.

1040
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 1: I would easily easily swap the Packers Bears for the

1041
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 1: Steelers Texans, like the Texans have been relegated to Saturday

1042
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:27,120
Speaker 1: every year they've been in the playoffs for the last

1043
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 1: several years. I'm really surprised. Maybe they switched it up

1044
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 1: just for that reason. But doesn't it feel like the

1045
00:54:33,239 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 1: Texans always play on Saturday in the playoffs?

1046
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, they always a This is the first time ever

1047
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 4: that they made the playoffs that they won't play on

1048
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:44,240
Speaker 4: that opening Saturday. But Texan Steelers has a lot bigger

1049
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:47,399
Speaker 4: draw than I mean, the Panthers. I think they made

1050
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:49,399
Speaker 4: the right choice. You stick that that's the worst game.

1051
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:52,560
Speaker 4: It's the biggest spread by the way the Steelers, Evan

1052
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:55,880
Speaker 4: can look at Yeah, ESPN's it just basically comes down

1053
00:54:55,920 --> 00:55:00,080
Speaker 4: to networks. ESPN wanted the AFC North. Evan, you you

1054
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 4: might look this up. You can look this up because

1055
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 4: this is probably this has to be the first playoff

1056
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 4: game this year. As I played them in the night,

1057
00:55:05,520 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 4: the Steelers, I believe, not lost a Monday night game

1058
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:09,360
Speaker 4: in like thirty eight years.

1059
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:11,879
Speaker 5: Oh god, that's gonna be on the pregame show. Yeah.

1060
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 4: No, I think it's little since like the eighties.

1061
00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:20,000
Speaker 2: That's what I said this Sunday. I think the Steelers

1062
00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:21,279
Speaker 2: could win this freaking game.

1063
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:27,280
Speaker 1: Of course, I'm trying to find reasons, ladies and gentlemen.

1064
00:55:27,680 --> 00:55:30,200
Speaker 1: I'm going up and down the list on all these games.

1065
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:32,759
Speaker 1: I don't like a single favorite.

1066
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 2: No me either, me either, No me either, cravits, it's

1067
00:55:36,080 --> 00:55:39,360
Speaker 2: killing me. I'm like, they're like, I can't feeling.

1068
00:55:39,440 --> 00:55:41,319
Speaker 1: I know that all the dogs aren't going to win,

1069
00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:46,799
Speaker 1: but you know, just or pick thems essentially.

1070
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:48,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're like there a lot of them are pick thems.

1071
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:52,359
Speaker 1: I just wonder if I'm all the thing I'm trying

1072
00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 1: to assess here is am I overconfident in the playoff dog?

1073
00:55:57,600 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 5: But I like this thing.

1074
00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:01,239
Speaker 1: If I had bet it right now, I would take

1075
00:56:01,239 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 1: the Steelers plus three and a half. When we hop

1076
00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:06,160
Speaker 1: off this podcast, I will be betting the Chargers plus

1077
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:08,520
Speaker 1: three and a half. I've already taken the forty nine

1078
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:11,319
Speaker 1: Ers at a bad number. I'm on the Panthers plus ten,

1079
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:14,000
Speaker 1: and if I end up on Packers Bears, I'd be

1080
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 1: on the Packers. I'm probably not gonna end up betting

1081
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:18,279
Speaker 1: all of these games. I'm gonna leave some off the two, but.

1082
00:56:18,600 --> 00:56:20,439
Speaker 4: Don't over think of the back The Backers could close.

1083
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:22,640
Speaker 4: I think they're gonna close as a vapor. Then then

1084
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:24,879
Speaker 4: what then you're on a dog is a favorite, Well.

1085
00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 1: I would I wouldn't just bet a favorite to bet

1086
00:56:26,600 --> 00:56:28,239
Speaker 1: a favorite, but what I would do is say I

1087
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:32,200
Speaker 1: might be be over exposing myself to the dogs and

1088
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:32,880
Speaker 1: just not bet it.

1089
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:34,440
Speaker 4: I think I know what I'm saying. The Packers might

1090
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 4: end up as a favorite, So then like the don't

1091
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 4: don't don't overthink it.

1092
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:42,279
Speaker 5: I love my I love my stucky pep talks. They

1093
00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:43,280
Speaker 5: get me through the season.

1094
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:44,319
Speaker 6: Yeah.

1095
00:56:44,320 --> 00:56:46,840
Speaker 4: That's like when someone's like, well this this this quarterback

1096
00:56:46,880 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 4: as an underdog is like blah blah blah. When this

1097
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:51,279
Speaker 4: spread is one, and I'm like, all right, well if

1098
00:56:51,280 --> 00:56:54,120
Speaker 4: they close minus one, it's no longer a good bet.

1099
00:56:55,239 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 4: They're not gonna win now, But as always, just get

1100
00:56:59,200 --> 00:56:59,759
Speaker 4: the best number.

1101
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:01,359
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1102
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:03,879
Speaker 4: I don't love any favorites like rams Pants. I haven't

1103
00:57:03,920 --> 00:57:07,879
Speaker 4: bet it yet with Lean Panthers, Packers, Bears. I bet

1104
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 4: the Packers. Talk about that on Thursday Bill's Jags. I

1105
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:14,719
Speaker 4: bet the Jags first half lean Jags. But these are

1106
00:57:14,719 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 4: all coin flips. But forty nine Ers Eagles, I don't

1107
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 4: like the forty nine Ers. Now, I'm just on that

1108
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:22,160
Speaker 4: under Chargers Pats. I like the Chargers Texans Steelers. I

1109
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 4: have no idea yet. I can't like I wanted to

1110
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:28,880
Speaker 4: bet that under but I mean it's thirty nine and

1111
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:35,200
Speaker 4: a half. Is that's low like that, especially with two

1112
00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 4: defenses that can cause havoc, can create short fields like

1113
00:57:41,920 --> 00:57:43,440
Speaker 4: So we'll talk about that game more on Thursday. I

1114
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:45,800
Speaker 4: still have to break that one down. I have no

1115
00:57:45,840 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 4: clue what I'm doing there.

1116
00:57:47,400 --> 00:57:50,280
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, come and join us. Time for the primer

1117
00:57:50,360 --> 00:57:54,200
Speaker 1: courtesy of one Evan Abrams. What are the trends that

1118
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:56,960
Speaker 1: we need to be aware of before we go firing away?

1119
00:57:57,280 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 5: I dug through the primer.

1120
00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 1: I read every word of this bad Boy, A beautiful

1121
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:02,280
Speaker 1: read this week, Evan.

1122
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 7: I appreciate that, all right, So let me answer some

1123
00:58:05,240 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 7: stucky questions. So, yeah, we talked about first playoff starts

1124
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 7: versus experience twenty and thirty nine against a spread thirty

1125
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:16,600
Speaker 7: four percent since division realignment to twenty and forty straight up.

1126
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 7: So that'd be Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, Drake May So

1127
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 7: that one is always going to be in line whenever

1128
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 7: we talk about playoff, especially the start of it. To

1129
00:58:25,160 --> 00:58:27,240
Speaker 7: answer your question on the Monday night football thing, So

1130
00:58:27,800 --> 00:58:30,040
Speaker 7: dating back to ninety two. Steelers are twenty three and

1131
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:33,880
Speaker 7: one playing on a Monday. Their only loss was against

1132
00:58:33,920 --> 00:58:36,440
Speaker 7: the Commanders in twenty twenty when we had to move

1133
00:58:36,560 --> 00:58:40,480
Speaker 7: the game to a Monday. So many people will say that,

1134
00:58:40,560 --> 00:58:42,800
Speaker 7: you know, in front of a crowd, they haven't lost

1135
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:46,080
Speaker 7: since nineteen ninety two at home on Monday night football,

1136
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 7: which is.

1137
00:58:46,360 --> 00:58:48,320
Speaker 6: Always a fun one and always we talked about this

1138
00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 6: as well.

1139
00:58:48,760 --> 00:58:51,360
Speaker 7: Rogers is great on Monday Night football, twelve and two

1140
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:53,920
Speaker 7: in his career, so he's done that pretty well himself.

1141
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:55,520
Speaker 6: I mean the other one on.

1142
00:58:55,440 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 4: A Monday night, that that's Commander Steelers game.

1143
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:01,080
Speaker 7: Yeah, we moved it to a Monday, which you know

1144
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 7: not technically Monday night football. But if it says Monday,

1145
00:59:04,440 --> 00:59:05,360
Speaker 7: I'm tossing no.

1146
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 4: But I wouldn't be Yeah, I wouldn't be confident that's

1147
00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:11,120
Speaker 4: Monday Night. Like I remember they moved The Ravens played

1148
00:59:11,120 --> 00:59:16,120
Speaker 4: the Steelers that year on a Wednesday afternoon. Do you

1149
00:59:16,120 --> 00:59:19,960
Speaker 4: remember that. There was like widespread outbreaks and they're like,

1150
00:59:19,960 --> 00:59:22,320
Speaker 4: we got to get this game in and they played

1151
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 4: on a Wednesday afternoon.

1152
00:59:24,560 --> 00:59:26,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, chaos, And then they.

1153
00:59:26,320 --> 00:59:28,320
Speaker 4: Had to play on like four so someone at one

1154
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:29,840
Speaker 4: of them had to play on four days rest, so

1155
00:59:29,880 --> 00:59:31,520
Speaker 4: I wasn't sure if that might have been like a Monday.

1156
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:35,200
Speaker 4: I don't remember that game. Who was Steelers Commanders.

1157
00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:38,120
Speaker 6: Steelers command that was the for their first loss of

1158
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:38,600
Speaker 6: the season.

1159
00:59:39,080 --> 00:59:42,000
Speaker 4: That was, Yes, I bet the Commanders that game. That

1160
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:43,600
Speaker 4: was that fraudulent Steelers team.

1161
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:45,400
Speaker 6: That was eleven PM on a Monday.

1162
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:47,280
Speaker 4: Yes see, it wasn't at night.

1163
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 6: So Monday football, but.

1164
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 4: Monday night football at home.

1165
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:55,360
Speaker 7: They haven't lost, correct, I think I think the better

1166
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:56,920
Speaker 7: I think the better one is like in front of

1167
00:59:56,960 --> 00:59:58,680
Speaker 7: a crowd, right like you have you have like the

1168
00:59:58,800 --> 01:00:02,000
Speaker 7: terrible Towels, the you know and renegade. They haven't lost

1169
01:00:02,040 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 7: twenty three in a row, thank you?

1170
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:05,320
Speaker 6: Yes, you know?

1171
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:07,360
Speaker 4: The quarterback was to beat the Steelers the game their

1172
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 4: first loss. The Commander has won that game?

1173
01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:10,120
Speaker 6: Was it? Heineke?

1174
01:00:10,960 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 4: Alex Smith?

1175
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:12,800
Speaker 6: Alex Smith?

1176
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:13,640
Speaker 3: Wow?

1177
01:00:16,120 --> 01:00:18,400
Speaker 7: What else do I have for you? I mean, Kraviit

1178
01:00:18,520 --> 01:00:20,320
Speaker 7: you mentioned this as well. But there's like a few

1179
01:00:20,360 --> 01:00:23,600
Speaker 7: ways to look at Carolina. So double digit underdogs, terrible

1180
01:00:23,680 --> 01:00:26,360
Speaker 7: five and thirteen against the spreads in twenty eleven, but

1181
01:00:27,120 --> 01:00:29,760
Speaker 7: when they're at home four plus points, they're eight to oh.

1182
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:32,960
Speaker 6: Over the last fifty years, so at.

1183
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:35,160
Speaker 7: Home in the playoffs getting four points or more eight

1184
01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:37,520
Speaker 7: and to o against the spread, which is you look

1185
01:00:37,560 --> 01:00:39,600
Speaker 7: at that Carolina game. There's so many ways to kind

1186
01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:42,480
Speaker 7: of cut the pie. Just pick a side, take it

1187
01:00:42,480 --> 01:00:44,960
Speaker 7: for what you will. I will say this, this one

1188
01:00:44,960 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 7: took a little bit to look at. So the Jaguars

1189
01:00:47,840 --> 01:00:51,080
Speaker 7: enter the playoffs not only winning eight straight, but covering

1190
01:00:51,080 --> 01:00:53,840
Speaker 7: eight straight. It's only happened one other time in the

1191
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:56,760
Speaker 7: Super Bowl era. That was the Saints in twenty eleven

1192
01:00:56,800 --> 01:00:59,880
Speaker 7: and twelve. So this is one of the hottest teams

1193
01:01:00,120 --> 01:01:03,240
Speaker 7: could remember from a straight up and ats perspective entering

1194
01:01:03,280 --> 01:01:05,880
Speaker 7: the playoffs, which is fun in itself. And then you

1195
01:01:05,880 --> 01:01:08,000
Speaker 7: look at the Texans. They've won nine in a rown

1196
01:01:08,080 --> 01:01:10,720
Speaker 7: during the playoffs, which isn't exactly the best thing. Those

1197
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:13,920
Speaker 7: teams six and nineteen against the spreads in two thousand

1198
01:01:13,920 --> 01:01:17,160
Speaker 7: and two, five and fourteen when they're a favorite and

1199
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:19,480
Speaker 7: going into Pittsburgh should be an interesting scenario.

1200
01:01:19,840 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 4: Is there any do you have anything in there about

1201
01:01:21,600 --> 01:01:24,040
Speaker 4: teams on I think I've looked into this before and

1202
01:01:24,040 --> 01:01:27,320
Speaker 4: there's nothing there but teams on a losing streak going

1203
01:01:27,320 --> 01:01:30,640
Speaker 4: into the playoffs. It's probably rare but like the Packers

1204
01:01:30,640 --> 01:01:31,880
Speaker 4: have lost what four straight?

1205
01:01:32,480 --> 01:01:36,240
Speaker 7: Yeah, so they would only be the fourth team to

1206
01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 7: lose four straight games entering the playoffs.

1207
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:42,600
Speaker 6: The Steelers did it last year, the Lions in ninety nine,

1208
01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:45,520
Speaker 6: the Jets, and eighty six. I think they went like two.

1209
01:01:45,480 --> 01:01:47,320
Speaker 7: And two wild carters so in their first game, but

1210
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:50,600
Speaker 7: none of those teams made the conference championship, so it

1211
01:01:50,720 --> 01:01:54,440
Speaker 7: usually shows that there isn't long term longevity for that team.

1212
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:58,080
Speaker 7: But either way, nonetheless kind of fascinating.

1213
01:01:57,800 --> 01:02:02,360
Speaker 4: Yes, bus the Packers just booted, literally punted Week eighteen.

1214
01:02:02,760 --> 01:02:06,200
Speaker 7: And the other thing was this, so overall we've seen

1215
01:02:06,240 --> 01:02:08,200
Speaker 7: thirteen teams in the Super Bowl area have a four

1216
01:02:08,240 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 7: plus game straight up losing streak that bled into December

1217
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 7: or later.

1218
01:02:11,880 --> 01:02:14,520
Speaker 6: So this late in the season, teams whould just fall apart.

1219
01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:15,600
Speaker 6: Ten of those.

1220
01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:18,480
Speaker 7: Thirteen teams lost in the wildcard round, twelve of thirteen

1221
01:02:18,520 --> 01:02:21,440
Speaker 7: in the divisional So it really does have a ceiling

1222
01:02:21,480 --> 01:02:23,200
Speaker 7: for those teams who have had losing streaks late.

1223
01:02:23,720 --> 01:02:25,960
Speaker 5: Does that apply to anybody else but Green Bay?

1224
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:28,080
Speaker 6: Don't believe so, but I could double check.

1225
01:02:28,840 --> 01:02:32,480
Speaker 1: How about rest versus rust and specifically talking about the

1226
01:02:32,520 --> 01:02:36,720
Speaker 1: teams that bench starters like Green Bay, they would qualify

1227
01:02:36,760 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 1: for this, the Chargers would qualify that teams that rested

1228
01:02:40,440 --> 01:02:46,600
Speaker 1: their starters. Is that problematic as far as the spread goes.

1229
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:47,640
Speaker 5: Do you have anything on that?

1230
01:02:48,520 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 6: I definitely do.

1231
01:02:49,320 --> 01:02:51,880
Speaker 7: And now I'm looking into my story because I did

1232
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:53,840
Speaker 7: look this up, and the way I looked it up

1233
01:02:54,080 --> 01:02:57,680
Speaker 7: was the fact that teams who are like six plus

1234
01:02:57,720 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 7: point underdogs in their previous game and entering the playoffs

1235
01:03:02,320 --> 01:03:03,080
Speaker 7: trying to find it.

1236
01:03:03,160 --> 01:03:05,680
Speaker 6: But it's in the primer somewhere. Too much stuff in here.

1237
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:08,360
Speaker 5: This week it was fat. It was fat.

1238
01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:10,880
Speaker 4: I've looked at it in the past. It's just like

1239
01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:18,120
Speaker 4: that resting starters late in the season. It's just there

1240
01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:21,160
Speaker 4: was some signal, like I said before, but it's very

1241
01:03:21,160 --> 01:03:27,560
Speaker 4: difficult to track and jet like I did to qualify

1242
01:03:27,760 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 4: which games count? Right, Like did this team how many

1243
01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:34,640
Speaker 4: starters do you? Does it is the threshold for like

1244
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:37,520
Speaker 4: this team rested starters, right or this team didn't? Do

1245
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:40,280
Speaker 4: you just go based on the quarterback because some teams

1246
01:03:40,320 --> 01:03:42,720
Speaker 4: will play their quarterback, some things play their quarterback for

1247
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:45,840
Speaker 4: a half. So like there's a lot of noise in

1248
01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:48,320
Speaker 4: like determining what the data set is. But I do

1249
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:50,080
Speaker 4: think that they're From what I've looked into, there's a

1250
01:03:50,400 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 4: it's it's not huge, but I mean it's kind of

1251
01:03:54,200 --> 01:03:57,560
Speaker 4: like a bye week how you would expect. But late

1252
01:03:57,600 --> 01:03:59,480
Speaker 4: in the season, I think a bye week has little

1253
01:03:59,720 --> 01:04:04,320
Speaker 4: just probably gonna be healthier and fresher than the other team.

1254
01:04:04,440 --> 01:04:06,360
Speaker 4: I think that's one of the reasons McVeigh historically has

1255
01:04:06,400 --> 01:04:10,160
Speaker 4: always chosen to do that in disregarding seating except for

1256
01:04:10,200 --> 01:04:10,560
Speaker 4: this year.

1257
01:04:11,120 --> 01:04:12,920
Speaker 6: So the way I looked at it was history hasn't

1258
01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:14,360
Speaker 6: been kind to teams who are big.

1259
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:16,760
Speaker 7: Underdogs the week before entering the Wildcard round, which would

1260
01:04:16,880 --> 01:04:19,280
Speaker 7: basically be a signal that they rested players, because if

1261
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:21,240
Speaker 7: you're a playoff team, you're not this big of an underdog,

1262
01:04:21,280 --> 01:04:25,120
Speaker 7: but six or higher previous game entering Wildcard Round eight

1263
01:04:25,200 --> 01:04:27,880
Speaker 7: and nineteen against the spread, that would be the Packers

1264
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:28,760
Speaker 7: and the Chargers.

1265
01:04:29,040 --> 01:04:32,600
Speaker 5: That's not good. So keep that in mind. Thank you, Evan.

1266
01:04:32,720 --> 01:04:35,200
Speaker 5: Go read the primer highly, highly recommend it.

1267
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:38,680
Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our

1268
01:04:38,680 --> 01:04:42,160
Speaker 1: producers David Payne and Gifford Gold. The Favorites will return

1269
01:04:42,360 --> 01:04:46,200
Speaker 1: on Thursday afternoon right here on the Action Network YouTube page.

1270
01:04:46,240 --> 01:04:49,280
Speaker 1: When we talk wild Card Round best bets and nominate

1271
01:04:49,600 --> 01:04:52,520
Speaker 1: our official two Kings and a Queen parlay. We'll see

1272
01:04:52,520 --> 01:04:55,560
Speaker 1: you next time here on the Favorites presented by Draft Kid.

1273
01:05:05,320 --> 01:05:08,800
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1274
01:05:09,200 --> 01:05:12,040
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1275
01:05:12,320 --> 01:05:14,960
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1276
01:05:15,000 --> 01:05:15,800
Speaker 5: hundred gambler