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Speaker 1: Time today. What time is it? Game Time? Well, that
Speaker 1: was a great Thursday night football game. I've got so
Speaker 1: many thoughts on it. Rams beat the Minnesota Vikings thirty
Speaker 1: to twenty. That's as bad a missed call in a
Speaker 1: big spot in an NFL game that I've seen in
Speaker 1: a long time. Fans tend to get worked up over
Speaker 1: pass interference calls, but those are subjective. That's like an
Speaker 1: NBA game. You know, you could call foul every time
Speaker 1: down the floor, you could call PI every time the
Speaker 1: balls down the sideline, but a face masking call. I mean, hell,
Speaker 1: Kirk Kerbstreet saw it. We all saw it on television.
Speaker 1: Like Donald's head, get Yang back now. I don't think
Speaker 1: they were going to drive ninety seven yards score a touchdown.
Speaker 1: The Rams defensive front which is really young Aaron Donald left,
Speaker 1: but they have stocked at the last two years with
Speaker 1: really good players, young Verse on the front, Kobe Turner,
Speaker 1: a lot of good players, and so I don't think
Speaker 1: Donald was driving down to score a touchdown and the
Speaker 1: two point conversion on the road. Nonetheless, that's a bad miss.
Speaker 1: You know, there's so many things to start. First of all,
Speaker 1: this week, they rumors came out that Cooper Cup and
Speaker 1: Matt Stafford were on the trade block. Cooper Cup, I
Speaker 1: believe you see how often they targeted Puka Nakua. He's
Speaker 1: their future. Cooper Cup's good, but he's brittle, he struggles.
Speaker 1: He's like an old NBA player. He struggles on like
Speaker 1: back to back games on turf. You know, he's a guy.
Speaker 1: Ideally for him and his body, you'd play him about
Speaker 1: ten weeks a year. But for a good team, like
Speaker 1: a Pittsburgh team that's playing well, now you get a
Speaker 1: third fourth round pick for Cooper Cup. With Pickens on
Speaker 1: the sideline routes, you'd have a real team. You know
Speaker 1: he would be a boost. But for the Rams, you
Speaker 1: know they're going to extract everything they can the rest
Speaker 1: of the year. I don't know if they'll move him.
Speaker 1: I think the Rams. I said this today on FS one.
Speaker 1: There's no question in that division. San Francisco is not
Speaker 1: as good as they were. Nobody's gonna trust Gino Smith
Speaker 1: in Seattle. Arizona can be great and awful in the
Speaker 1: same game. The Rams are now three and four. Remember
Speaker 1: last year slow start, they won seven of their last eight,
Speaker 1: got into the playoffs, and they they were a play
Speaker 1: away from beating Detroit. So this idea of trading Cooper Cup,
Speaker 1: I get it because of Puka Nakua, and I did
Speaker 1: not expect Poka Naku would have played tonight. That's why
Speaker 1: I had the vikings and the under on the Rams.
Speaker 1: I didn't think Pooka n Aka was going to play.
Speaker 1: And you know, he's just total game changer. It's it's
Speaker 1: he's not justin Jefferson great, but he's a he's a
Speaker 1: ten target, eight catch guy weekly basis for ninety five
Speaker 1: to one hundred and fifteen yards. He's just a special player.
Speaker 1: Fifth round or two. But the Matt Stafford trade rumors
Speaker 1: are just don't make any sense to me. He's got
Speaker 1: this year and next year under contract, then they can
Speaker 1: walk away. But there's just not There's nobody in the
Speaker 1: next two college drafts that is close to this. And
Speaker 1: Sean McVay almost walked away from the NFL a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago to take an Amazon job as a broadcaster.
Speaker 1: He didn't want to start over with some you know,
Speaker 1: half of these first round quarterbacks don't make it this
Speaker 1: coming up draft, you know, I mean, I can see
Speaker 1: the Rams in the third or fourth round taking Riley
Speaker 1: Leonard out of Notre Dame, sitting them behind Stafford for
Speaker 1: a year or two. But if you're not getting Shader Sanders,
Speaker 1: I don't see anybody in this quarterback drafts that's going
Speaker 1: to play immediately and excel at the NFL level. I
Speaker 1: just don't. And that's what my couple sources who I've
Speaker 1: talked about in the executive suites in the NFL tell me.
Speaker 1: It's just this last draft was great quarterback draft. Next
Speaker 1: two are just okay. So I mean Stafford four touchdowns,
Speaker 1: twenty three to thirty two, nine different receivers, twenty seven
Speaker 1: first downs. They're not getting rid of him. And I
Speaker 1: said this last year and I'll say it again. They
Speaker 1: need a number one corner. The Rams doing the draft,
Speaker 1: they need a draft a sideline receiver, a speed receiver,
Speaker 1: and they need another offensive tackle and probably another safety
Speaker 1: for depth. But they're not that far away. If they hit,
Speaker 1: they have a first and two thirds. If they hit
Speaker 1: on those picks, team could win the Super Bowl. I
Speaker 1: don't think there are a super Bowl team this year
Speaker 1: at three and four, but Minnesota is a good team
Speaker 1: and the Rams controlled that second half. So I just
Speaker 1: I just don't. I don't buy into I don't buy
Speaker 1: into Matt Stafford's moving. And I've said this before. Just
Speaker 1: think about Aaron Rodgers. So Matt Stafford was a much
Speaker 1: better high school player than Aaron Rodgers and a much
Speaker 1: better college player than Aaron Rodgers, and was better than
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers their first four years in the league. And
Speaker 1: then you know, Aaron's with the Packers, Stafford's with the
Speaker 1: you know, bankrupt Lions, and you know, Stafford struggles to
Speaker 1: win in the same division. Rodgers is, you know, out
Speaker 1: of this world. For green Band deserves all the credit.
Speaker 1: But what happens if Stafford the next two years makes
Speaker 1: the makes the Rams a viable super Bowl team. It's
Speaker 1: not unheard of San Francisco's peak. We don't trust Philadelphia's coach.
Speaker 1: The Lions are the best team. But in a big spot,
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell, Jared goff or mcvahan, Stafford with no Aiden Hutchison,
Speaker 1: that game gets a lot closer. So I just look
Speaker 1: at it and I think to myself, Stafford's here, load
Speaker 1: up on draft picks the next two years, try to
Speaker 1: have some hits. You know, the Rams defense is so
Speaker 1: young that they can spend some money in free agency.
Speaker 1: This year, they're not spending anything on defense. I mean,
Speaker 1: those guys are all free, they're cheap. They got a
Speaker 1: lot of second, third, fourth, fifth rounders all over that defense.
Speaker 1: They're not paying anybody right now now that Aaron Donald's gone.
Speaker 1: As far as the Vikings go, you know, Sam Donald
Speaker 1: was fine outplayed in the second half. But it really
Speaker 1: is interesting. So you know, we all kind of picked,
Speaker 1: you know, Detroit green Bay to be the best in
Speaker 1: the division, and then the Bears and the Vikings to
Speaker 1: round it out. And I had said if the Vikings
Speaker 1: finished fourth, it's the most talented offensive fourth place team
Speaker 1: in the history of the NFL. They're not going to
Speaker 1: finish fourth, I think, but I do think, and they've
Speaker 1: got winnable games coming up. You know, they've got Titans, Jags, Colts, Arizona,
Speaker 1: Bears twice, Seattle. You know, Vikings are a good team,
Speaker 1: but I do think Detroit's got a better roster and
Speaker 1: is a better team. And you saw it last week
Speaker 1: when they played. And I think green Bay is so young,
Speaker 1: we're not seeing the best version of green Bay. I
Speaker 1: think over the next eight weeks, Packers are just going
Speaker 1: to get better and better and better better. And I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be shocked if they if they got to a
Speaker 1: super Bowl. I don't see them as a super Bowl
Speaker 1: winning team this year, but it wouldn't shock me. They're
Speaker 1: so young. Every time you watch green Bay they look better.
Speaker 1: And that's the advantage of having a bunch of twenty
Speaker 1: four year olds and twenty five year olds who are
Speaker 1: just into their prime. Detroit's a little older, more seasoned,
Speaker 1: and that's why I like Detroit if they met in
Speaker 1: like like a playoff game, But you know, what do
Speaker 1: you do with Stafford? So my guess is if the
Speaker 1: Vikings end up being a good team winning ten games,
Speaker 1: but they finish third because the Vikings, you know, I
Speaker 1: don't think they're Detroit or Green Bay at their best.
Speaker 1: And remember the Vikings may have just lost their left
Speaker 1: tackle for some time. Cross your fingers on that. But
Speaker 1: Darnold will have a market. I mean the last several years,
Speaker 1: think about the quarterbacks who have had a market, Old Brady, Matt, Stafford,
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins. Darnald will have a market. Now,
Speaker 1: somebody may overpay for him. You're not going to get
Speaker 1: this Donald, He's not going to have this left tackle
Speaker 1: justin Jefferson, this coach you know, probably Jordan Addison, TJ. Hawkins,
Speaker 1: and you're not getting that Donald. But I think he'll
Speaker 1: be somewhere between the mess in New York and the Vikings,
Speaker 1: and he's a really coachable, likable kid. But you see
Speaker 1: it to night when you put him on the field
Speaker 1: with Stafford, Stafford is the better quarterback. I mean, Stafford's
Speaker 1: got nine different receivers, his pre snap stuff. I mean,
Speaker 1: the guy is just Matt is just insanely gifted. But
Speaker 1: he has you know, he didn't have a brand. He
Speaker 1: doesn't give a rip. He just loves football as family
Speaker 1: and that's you know, he's not controversial. He doesn't talk
Speaker 1: about conspiracy theories. He's just not who he is.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 1: He's just a good old Texas Southern guy loves football
Speaker 1: and family and keeps it quiet. But Donald will have
Speaker 1: a market, and I think JJ McCarthy, who had a
Speaker 1: great preseason, is kind of their future. And I think,
Speaker 1: you know, if Donald gets the ten wins, ten to
Speaker 1: eleven wins, that's a second third round pick. I don't
Speaker 1: think you're gonna get a first for him. But Donald
Speaker 1: will have a market. But they didn't draft JJ McCarthy
Speaker 1: to move off him. So but I did think tonight
Speaker 1: when you see Donald, and he's not reckless, he's gotten
Speaker 1: the reckless out of him. But when you see him
Speaker 1: on the same field with like a golf last week
Speaker 1: or a Matt Stafford this week. He just doesn't feel
Speaker 1: quite that. And I think Kevin O'Connell, who's a quarterback coach,
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people like Sam Darnold, but
Speaker 1: to give a guy a bag, you have to love
Speaker 1: your quarterback, and so he'll have a market. I think
Speaker 1: the Vikings will pull back a little, but again they're
Speaker 1: both the Rams schedule and the Viking schedule. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of wins. The other thing on the Rams tonight
Speaker 1: they got Pooka Cooper cut back, but the interior of
Speaker 1: their offensive line they're still missing two starters. So this
Speaker 1: Rams team, which has a young, young, aggressive, talented defense
Speaker 1: and a really good offensive line top five or six
Speaker 1: in the league when healthy. So the Rams now are
Speaker 1: starting to get healthy. Puka a surprise starter tonight, big,
Speaker 1: big production. Just to give you a sense of how
Speaker 1: valuable Poka Nakua is, and I didn't think he'd played tonight.
Speaker 1: The Rams have won eight of the last nine games.
Speaker 1: Pooka Nicua has played the only loss overtime loss on
Speaker 1: the road to Baltimore, and with that win, the San
Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers are now in last place in
Speaker 1: the NFC West. How about that? But just watching Stafford
Speaker 1: out there, Spinet, he is really really special. If you
Speaker 1: ask yourself now that Brady's out of the league and
Speaker 1: Breeze is out of the league, and I said to
Speaker 1: you final drive, minute thirty one time out, final drive,
Speaker 1: you'd take Mahomes, I'd argue I'd take Stafford second. He's
Speaker 1: certainly in the argument. You know you'd take him. I
Speaker 1: think over Lamar be is Lamar's lack of playoff success.
Speaker 1: You know, Josh Allen a bigger, stronger athlete, but again
Speaker 1: lack of playoffs success. I love Joe Burrow, but Burrow,
Speaker 1: you know, I mean he may not make the playoffs
Speaker 1: this year, and he's had some injuries. I mean, I
Speaker 1: name the quarterbacks in the league. Minute thirty one time
Speaker 1: out left have to go eighty four yards. I mean
Speaker 1: it's Mahomes one. Stafford's on a short list at number two.
Speaker 1: So the trade rumors kind of silly to me. And
Speaker 1: I also think, you know, when you get we're always
Speaker 1: trying to bum rush all these older guys out and
Speaker 1: Stafford certainly had some injuries, but you watch his legs,
Speaker 1: you watch his arms. He's obviously motivated. He's one of
Speaker 1: the best pre snap guys in the league. You know
Speaker 1: this isn't a guy that I mean he his wife
Speaker 1: made a remark earlier, I think this year or late
Speaker 1: last year about how young his teammates are. Yes, the
Speaker 1: Rams are doing the Kansas City Chiefs model. They're going
Speaker 1: to pay for offense. They are going to just keep
Speaker 1: drafting defense, and I think the Rams defense, like the
Speaker 1: Packers off is just going to get better the longer
Speaker 1: the season goes. I think the Packers offense by week
Speaker 1: thirteen could be the best offense in the league. It's
Speaker 1: already one of the best. I think this Rams defense
Speaker 1: is just getting better every time I see him. So
Speaker 1: good win for the Rams tonight. Three to four. Minnesota
Speaker 1: is still a good team with a lot of w's left.
Speaker 1: But I don't think the Rams are selling I don't
Speaker 1: Cooper Cup. If somebody offered you a second third, youd
Speaker 1: take it. But I don't think people are going to
Speaker 1: do that brittle expensive I think they may get a
Speaker 1: fourth round pick and at that point just keep him,
Speaker 1: just go win football games. I mean, he made a
Speaker 1: huge catch up the sideline tonight late. That was a
Speaker 1: big catch, So congrats to the Rams. Chad Millman, Sharp
Speaker 1: or Square? Who does he like? Who do I like?
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Speaker 1: Time for another edition of Sharp or Square, Chad Millman
Speaker 1: CCO Action Network. I pushed at two to two and one.
Speaker 1: All of our odds provided by DraftKings. So I have
Speaker 1: been last couple of weeks, I've been moving toward best quarterback.
Speaker 1: I do think defensive players statistically get hurt more than
Speaker 1: offensive players. Defenses can weaken, and the quarterbacks separate. Coaching
Speaker 1: quarterbacks separate this time every year. If you go look
Speaker 1: at the AFC, the best quarterbacks lead each division. Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins leads his. By the way, if you look at
Speaker 1: the quarterbacks playing best, I think eventually Jordan Love will
Speaker 1: lead his division. That's the time of the year we're in.
Speaker 1: So let me throw out a game that is fascinating,
Speaker 1: and this really highlight lights how important numbers are. So Historically,
Speaker 1: quarterbacks off concussions don't play their best the first week back.
Speaker 1: But Arizona Miami at three and a half, I'm out.
Speaker 1: But Arizona is the most inconsistent team in the league.
Speaker 1: They often have the best quarters followed by the worst halfs.
Speaker 1: If it's minus two and a half or minus three Miami,
Speaker 1: I like them because Arizona High Low Hilow just beat
Speaker 1: a team that I think is better than them, the
Speaker 1: Chargers and Hardball. So what I feel is like, Oh,
Speaker 1: here they go short week Monday night. Here they go
Speaker 1: cross country. You lose it in prep. Here is Tua.
Speaker 1: McDaniel played terribly with absolutely something to prove. They are
Speaker 1: going to flex at They're going to keep starters into
Speaker 1: the last play. That game interests me like Miami not
Speaker 1: only needs to win, they've been so bad for a month.
Speaker 1: They want to sell to that locker room. We are
Speaker 1: a great team. This is a new page and a
Speaker 1: new team forget the last month. Game fascinates me. I
Speaker 1: would take Miami minus three, but the hook because of
Speaker 1: concussions and the numbers behind those scare me. What are
Speaker 1: the sharps think on this.
Speaker 2: Now, It's like you are inside a professional better war room,
Speaker 2: because that is the exact conversation earlier this week. This
Speaker 2: line opened at three and a half, Arizona was the underdog.
Speaker 2: The professional betters bet Arizona at three and a half.
Speaker 2: When it got to three and it even touched two
Speaker 2: and a half, professional betters started coming in on Miami,
Speaker 2: and I apologize for people listening to my voice. It
Speaker 2: sounds worse than it is. Don't worry. I'm gonna be fine.
Speaker 2: The point is, Miami is the team professional betters are
Speaker 2: backing for every reason you just said. They believe Tua
Speaker 2: will make this team better. More importantly, they aren't believing
Speaker 2: in Kyler Murray as a consistent winning quarterback going cross
Speaker 2: country to play the Dolphins in a desperate, desperate situation.
Speaker 2: So the wise guys are on Miami. Yeah, desperate spot,
Speaker 2: you gotta win.
Speaker 1: And I really do believe Miami. Mike McDaniels has to
Speaker 1: rebrand this team fast because they've been the worst team
Speaker 1: in the league for about a month and they have.
Speaker 1: And also they're watching the Patriots fall apart and the
Speaker 1: Jets fall apart, so it's like, guys, let's see second place,
Speaker 1: first assignment Sunday. Let me get me.
Speaker 2: Last week, I was sitting in an airport and I
Speaker 2: was going over my notes for the favorites to the show,
Speaker 2: and I couldn't remember who was playing quarterback for the
Speaker 2: Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 4: That's how off the radar there.
Speaker 2: I had to look up literally Miami Dolphins starting quarterback,
Speaker 2: and you know what came up, Tua. Google didn't even
Speaker 2: know who the starting quarterback for Miami was. That's how
Speaker 2: sort of forgotten they've been. So you're one hundred percent right.
Speaker 2: They need to reframe who they are right now.
Speaker 1: Okay, Colts in a desperate spot plus five rival game
Speaker 1: at the Texans, the Green Bay game, there's a little
Speaker 1: bit of a red flag on Houston.
Speaker 4: So CJ.
Speaker 1: Strouds in year two clearly needs Joe Mixon and Nico
Speaker 1: Collins to be completed. He's getting worse protection. If you
Speaker 1: watch the pass attempts and you watch the coaching, they're
Speaker 1: getting a little conservative with him. It tells you that
Speaker 1: if they're not completely healthy, the staff doesn't necessarily trust him.
Speaker 1: Yet Conversely, Jordan Love throws ugly picks early that laflor
Speaker 1: doubles down throw it more. They know they've got farv
Speaker 1: on their hands. Jordan Love is an aggressive thrower, and
Speaker 1: Lafleur totally backs in. But the way their coach Siege
Speaker 1: Jay Stroud is telling me they're a little concerned with
Speaker 1: the elements around him and sometimes as a second year player,
Speaker 1: he needs though, he needs those the nicos, the Joe
Speaker 1: mixons to fortify his game. So I'm going to take
Speaker 1: the Colts plus five. It was six on DraftKings all
Speaker 1: or odds provided by DraftKings Sharper Square.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's totally sharp.
Speaker 2: In fact, it went from six and a half to six,
Speaker 2: to five and a half to five. It's now at
Speaker 2: four and a half in some places. Wise, guys have
Speaker 2: been pounding the Colts. I'm going to take your theory
Speaker 2: about better quarterback and expand it because that obviously isn't
Speaker 2: the case in this scenario. But I do think one
Speaker 2: of the reasons why the public has been winning so
Speaker 2: much in the past two weeks. The public meaning if
Speaker 2: there are more than fifty one percent of the bets
Speaker 2: on one side that is a public side. For the
Speaker 2: first five weeks of the year, the public was having
Speaker 2: its worse season in the twenty years we've been tracking
Speaker 2: this at Action Network the past two weeks. The public
Speaker 2: is twenty two zero seven and one complete and total reversal.
Speaker 2: Obviously Houston is going to be the public side here.
Speaker 2: But what normally happens is bad quarterbacks and bad teams
Speaker 2: with big numbers find a way to cover, and they
Speaker 2: haven't been. This is a situation where I'm extrapolating. I
Speaker 2: think it's more about good coaching and dominant unit. So
Speaker 2: you have in the Colts the number one run blocking
Speaker 2: unit in the NFL. You may get Jonathan Taylor back,
Speaker 2: you practiced yesterday for the first time off of that
Speaker 2: high ankle spring. You've got a great, great play caller
Speaker 2: in Shane Steichen who last year almost got the Cults
Speaker 2: of the playoff with Gardner Minshew. And by the way,
Speaker 2: has this team at four and three and one game
Speaker 2: out of the first place in the AFC South behind
Speaker 2: the Texans, who they only lost two by two points
Speaker 2: thread of this year. So that is why the wise guys.
Speaker 4: Are coming in.
Speaker 2: One trend for you division favorites the past eight years
Speaker 2: forty six against the spread, So it's also a good spot.
Speaker 1: One more underdog Seattle plush three against the Bills. So Seattle,
Speaker 1: we haven't seen a lot of Seattle when they're healthy
Speaker 1: upfront defensively, but boy did Kirk Cousins see that last week.
Speaker 1: This is a really good defensive coach with some really
Speaker 1: tasty defensive personnel. They're also getting their top cornerback. When
Speaker 1: I look at Gino Smith, I look at him two ways.
Speaker 1: With time and a run game. He's highly effective when
Speaker 1: rushed sometimes on the road. He's not Buffalo is not
Speaker 1: a team. Although I like him, I don't trust them.
Speaker 1: They're a much better version of Arizona and at home
Speaker 1: healthy a field goal. I this is hard for me
Speaker 1: to turn down three and a half. It's one of
Speaker 1: the best bets of the week. At three, I'd roll
Speaker 1: with it. The Seahawks sharper square, so it's square.
Speaker 2: The wise guys are on Buffalo, but I will tell you,
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I don't understand why they're on Buffalo.
Speaker 2: You know, we've talked about this before. We do a
Speaker 2: segment on our show called Sharp Calls on Tuesday, we
Speaker 2: talk about all the games. By Thursday, when we do
Speaker 2: the next episode of the week, we've got feedback from
Speaker 2: a lot of professional betters with their opinions on what
Speaker 2: we talked about on Tuesday, and we will review those
Speaker 2: on the show. Seattle Buffalo was one of the games
Speaker 2: that we loved on Tuesday, and on Thursday we were
Speaker 2: getting a lot of calls from professional betters so that
Speaker 2: they weren't buying Seattle's defense, they weren't buying Gino Smith,
Speaker 2: and they liked Josh Allen and the year that he's
Speaker 2: having no interception hasn't thrown an interception in nine games,
Speaker 2: which is coming close to record breaking status. Right, But
Speaker 2: I am with you, like the Bills beat up on
Speaker 2: bad teams, yes, and they they use or struggle against
Speaker 2: good teams. So if you're betting Seattle, then you are
Speaker 2: basically taking a stand that you think Seattle is a
Speaker 2: good team. And there is some evidence of that they
Speaker 2: have gotten healthier, but there's evidence that they're a bad
Speaker 2: team too, right, So I think that's what the wise
Speaker 2: guys are playing here, that they just don't believe Seattle
Speaker 2: is a very good team yet.
Speaker 1: All right, all right, let's go to some favorites. Bears
Speaker 1: minus two and a half at the Commanders, even if
Speaker 1: Jaden Daniels plays, He's not at one hundred percent, and
Speaker 1: you could you could clearly see with the Giants next
Speaker 1: week if Jade and Daniels plays, gets dinged pass rush
Speaker 1: pretty good for Chicago, you could see them saying we're
Speaker 1: going to Mariota, We're going to go into divisional play.
Speaker 1: We got no interest. I think the Bears defense because
Speaker 1: we're so fixated on calob and he's by the way,
Speaker 1: he is building real rapport here with his offensive set.
Speaker 1: I think the Bears defense is pretty well coached. Again,
Speaker 1: it's a numbers game. I think if Jaden Daniels plays,
Speaker 1: it will be mass protection. It will be a game
Speaker 1: in which they coach him more safely, they call a
Speaker 1: game differently. He's the difference in the franchise. And I
Speaker 1: think it's one of these games you look at and
Speaker 1: you think, listen, if we had to not play him,
Speaker 1: I mean, he hasn't practiced this week. Even if he
Speaker 1: practices Friday, you kind of wonder what you get. I like,
Speaker 1: Chicago minus two and a half here, pretty strong play
Speaker 1: Sharper square.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the sharp side.
Speaker 2: And look, the betters are are almost literally banking on
Speaker 2: the idea that Jaden Daniels isn't going to play in
Speaker 2: this game because he hasn't practiced, and there is a
Speaker 2: there is a massive difference between Jade and Daniels and
Speaker 2: Marcus Marrios. The Commanders have only punted twelve times this season.
Speaker 2: That's tied with the Chiefs for the fewest since nineteen fifty.
Speaker 2: They're perfect on fourth downs. They're fifty percent on third
Speaker 2: down conversions. That is because of Jaden Daniels. That is
Speaker 2: because of the threat that he poses. That is because
Speaker 2: of what he can do as both a very accurate
Speaker 2: passer and a good runner. Without that, this is a
Speaker 2: different team. It stresses the defense, which isn't very good
Speaker 2: even from a statistical point of view, but they don't
Speaker 2: look as bad when Jaden Daniels is converting fourth downs
Speaker 2: and converting third towns. There's fewer opportunities for the opposing
Speaker 2: offense to get on the field and score points.
Speaker 4: Kayleb Williams has.
Speaker 2: Been a brilliant quarterback the past four weeks and by
Speaker 2: the way, in the second half, he's covering the spread
Speaker 2: at a rate that is only compared only matched by
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes right now. So this coming off of by
Speaker 2: this team in this spot, it is a really good
Speaker 2: time to bet the Bears at minus two and a half.
Speaker 2: The wise guys are with you.
Speaker 1: The Eagles are the only team in the league that
Speaker 1: hasn't scored in the first quarter, and that matters when
Speaker 1: they go on the road to face Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow,
Speaker 1: when he doesn't have to throw, but chooses to throw,
Speaker 1: is as good as any quarterback in this league. All
Speaker 1: quarterbacks when they're in a hole, face a different defensive.
Speaker 4: Test.
Speaker 1: Philadelphia, if they score, doesn't take big leagues. They're probably
Speaker 1: the most underachieving offense in the league based on personnel
Speaker 1: and productivity. So here's a team in Cincinnati which has
Speaker 1: shown an ability to start quickly. I think Philadelphia has
Speaker 1: got much better players, but at minus two and a half,
Speaker 1: basically season on the line, with Baltimore winning, Pittsburgh winning,
Speaker 1: this is the season for Cincinnati at home. I only
Speaker 1: give up two and a half against what I think
Speaker 1: is one of the more poorly coached teams in the league,
Speaker 1: yet one of the best rosters. I'll take the Bengals
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. Sharper square totally sharp.
Speaker 2: The public is on the Eagles, and this line has
Speaker 2: moved up. That's called the reverse line move. When the
Speaker 2: line moves in the opposite direction of where the majority
Speaker 2: of the bets are. That tells you the professional betters
Speaker 2: are coming in on the side of the team that
Speaker 2: the line moved in the direction of. That is the
Speaker 2: Bengals open to two. It's now at two and a half.
Speaker 2: This is a bet on Joe Burrow.
Speaker 4: Yep, that's all like.
Speaker 2: He's twenty two six and one against the spread when
Speaker 2: facing a team that just covered. Overall in his career,
Speaker 2: he's sixty three percent. He's seventy percent against teams that
Speaker 2: are over five hundred. The challenge here is everyone should
Speaker 2: be and has been, concerned about the Bengals defense.
Speaker 4: But two things.
Speaker 2: The Bengals defense has been really good defending against the
Speaker 2: long pass and explosive plays. Yeah, that's the best way
Speaker 2: for the Eagles to win. We've seen it time and again.
Speaker 2: When they get the explosive plays, that's when they can
Speaker 2: break it out. The rest of the time, their offense
Speaker 2: isn't very good. We even sought against the Giants last week.
Speaker 2: So the pros are with you. They're back ining Joe Burrow.
Speaker 1: So you know, I love the number five. When a
Speaker 1: team is favored by four and a half to five,
Speaker 1: I feel like it's a graveyard for books that they
Speaker 1: don't want to go to that number. But they're kind
Speaker 1: of trapped. So San Francisco's at home. Dallas has not
Speaker 1: matched up well against better teams. Now Deebo had pneumonia
Speaker 1: as a pro athlete, I think he's available Sunday. I
Speaker 1: think Jennings is available. Jordan Mason's the second leading rusher
Speaker 1: in the league. He's a more than capable back. Teams
Speaker 1: that are well coached with talent that deliver a stinker
Speaker 1: in the biggest TV game of the week always play.
Speaker 1: It's an easy team to coach hard. They will play
Speaker 1: a much better football game. They're limited. No Brandon Ayuk,
Speaker 1: no Christian They're limited, but I think they feel they
Speaker 1: not only lost to the Chiefs, they were kind of embarrassed.
Speaker 1: It was really a bad performance. I'm gonna swallow the
Speaker 1: four and a half and take the Niners at home.
Speaker 2: Sharper Square, Well, you said something there that is a
Speaker 2: little bit too flip and dismissive. No Brandon Ayuk, no
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey. They might not have Deebo Samuel because the
Speaker 2: guy has pneumonia like he was in the freaking hospital.
Speaker 2: If you look at Rock Perdy's production, a third of
Speaker 2: his production during the time he's been starting has been
Speaker 2: going to Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Ayuk. If you include
Speaker 2: Deebo Samuel, fifty percent going to those three guys. You
Speaker 2: take away those three guys, and you know what you get.
Speaker 2: Brock Purdy and what he did against the Kansas City Chiefs,
Speaker 2: Like Ricky Pearsall is not Brandon Io.
Speaker 1: I don't know if Rickey Pearsall can play right.
Speaker 2: Ronnie Bell is not Deebo Samuel. It doesn't matter how
Speaker 2: hard Kyle Shanahan coaches these guys this week. If they
Speaker 2: can't play, they can't play. So that's the real issue.
Speaker 2: It's why the wise guys took the Cowboys at six
Speaker 2: and a half, took him at five and a half,
Speaker 2: took them at five down to four and a half.
Speaker 4: This thing's going to four.
Speaker 2: I would not be surprised if it's at three and
Speaker 2: a half by Sunday, because the wise guy money is
Speaker 2: coming in on the Cowboys.
Speaker 4: Then that's Ethan.
Speaker 2: With all the chaos of Jerry Jones calling out Mike McCarthy,
Speaker 2: who he could have fired after the Packers blew out
Speaker 2: the Cowboys, and now he's upset with McCarthy's play calling.
Speaker 2: The Cowboys are still inside, by the way, McCarthy thirteen
Speaker 2: three and one off of the buy against the spread.
Speaker 1: Okay, so a game. I want your opinion on this.
Speaker 1: It seems easy. So when Malik Neighbors was out or
Speaker 1: Cavon Thibadeaux for the Giants, it sounds alarming. But the
Speaker 1: player that really decides the fate of this team is
Speaker 1: Andrew Thomas. When bad quarterbacks don't have a left tackle,
Speaker 1: they get hideous fast. The Giants are now last year's Giants,
Speaker 1: right they They competed without Malik, with Dexter Lawrence, they
Speaker 1: compete without Theibadeaux. I don't think they're a competitive football team.
Speaker 1: So I get the Steelers for the record. The second
Speaker 1: half against the Jets twenty four to nothing. New York's
Speaker 1: goot players. It was a little old Russell Wilson. He's
Speaker 1: now got a deep a run game. Arthur Smith, he
Speaker 1: had protection moving well. We know the defense and motivations there.
Speaker 1: I know it doesn't feel sharp, but Pittsburgh minus six
Speaker 1: hosting a Giants team. Shane and Dable have been given
Speaker 1: assurance by the owner. You're not going anywhere. It's not
Speaker 1: a frenetic behind the scenes thing. Neither wants Daniel Jones.
Speaker 1: I cannot bet Daniel Jones stand alone on the road
Speaker 1: without his left tackle. It feels like the minus six
Speaker 1: is sharp Steelers sharper square.
Speaker 2: It's eh like, no one's really interested in this game.
Speaker 2: If it wasn't a primetime game, it'd be the Corner
Speaker 2: TV game because the Giants are that bad. And you're
Speaker 2: right about Andrew Thomas, Like we've talked about this. When
Speaker 2: I'm handicapping and doing analysis, the first thing I'm looking
Speaker 2: at is the offensive line. One of the reasons I
Speaker 2: like the Bengals against the Eagles is because Jordan Malatta
Speaker 2: is out and he's being replaced with a guy named
Speaker 2: Fred Johnson.
Speaker 4: He gives up.
Speaker 2: His pressure rate as a left tackle is twenty two
Speaker 2: percent against opposing defensive ends. The average is six percent.
Speaker 2: Offensive lines dictate your ability to run the ball, protect
Speaker 2: the quarterback.
Speaker 4: Score.
Speaker 2: It's why I love the Lions so much. It's why
Speaker 2: we love them so much. Last weekends the Vikings, It's
Speaker 2: why we hate them. We hate the Giants against the Eagles.
Speaker 2: I hate the Giants against the Steelers too. It's not
Speaker 2: a great spot like a team that's been blown out
Speaker 2: against a team that did the blowing out. That's a
Speaker 2: bad formula if you want to be a better it's
Speaker 2: very public to take the Steelers right now. I'm not
Speaker 2: saying it's the wrong side, but it's not the sharp side.
Speaker 1: Okay, there's always a game. I'm interested in your opinion.
Speaker 1: Jets minus seven at New England. They humiliated New England
Speaker 1: the first time. Drake may look pretty good last week.
Speaker 1: The Jets are a surcus I mean it's they look
Speaker 1: like they're significantly worse on defense without their best coach,
Speaker 1: Robert Sola. He was their best coach. They're not as
Speaker 1: good in the two games defensively without him. Offensively, the
Speaker 1: first game they used motion. Aaron Rodgers doesn't like it.
Speaker 1: By the second game, with a new coordinator, their motion
Speaker 1: was cut in half. That is so Aaron. He doesn't
Speaker 1: like motion. He wants to go to the line, keep
Speaker 1: it clean all make the call. It's begging me to
Speaker 1: take New England. Tell me where I should go.
Speaker 2: Well, if you want to bet this game, which you
Speaker 2: shouldn't want to and you definitely should not want to
Speaker 2: make it one of your blaze in five because you're
Speaker 2: on a streak right now.
Speaker 4: You take New England.
Speaker 2: You've got Drake May, he's proving he can throw the ball.
Speaker 2: You've got a depleted Jets secondary, which we saw last week.
Speaker 2: Like every single play I felt like another Jets player
Speaker 2: was going out. Even Sauce Gardner got banged up a
Speaker 2: little bit in last week's game.
Speaker 4: But you don't want to play this game. Oka.
Speaker 2: There are four big ish underdogs this week, the Jets,
Speaker 2: the Titans, the Browns, the Raiders. There are two games wise,
Speaker 2: guys want to play the underdogs, one game they completely
Speaker 2: want to ignore, and one game in which they want
Speaker 2: to play the favorites, the Patriots Jets is the game
Speaker 2: they want to ignore.
Speaker 1: All right, you always give me a game that I
Speaker 1: miss completely, what say you?
Speaker 2: Well, look, we talked about some good ones since the
Speaker 2: Indie I love those games. We talked about Chicago. We
Speaker 2: haven't talked about Cleveland and Las Vegas and their matchups
Speaker 2: against the Ravens and the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: One I can't stomach both. Just give me one. Pick one.
Speaker 4: It's so hard, Like the wise guys love them both.
Speaker 2: At this point, you're better off just betting the number,
Speaker 2: and like it's a little bit more of a number
Speaker 2: higher number with the Raiders and the Chiefs than it
Speaker 2: is with the Browns and the Ravens. I lean If
Speaker 2: I have to choose only one of them, I lean Browns.
Speaker 2: I think they're closer to getting better. And again subscribing
Speaker 2: to the theory that if I'm going to bet on
Speaker 2: a really bad team that is a big underdog, I
Speaker 2: want that team to at least have one dominant unit.
Speaker 2: And the Browns do have a dominant defensive end in
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett, who wasn't even on the injury report this week.
Speaker 2: They have a dominant cornerback and Denzel Ward who's been
Speaker 2: playing great all season long. The Ravens do give up
Speaker 2: a lot of points this most points in the second
Speaker 2: half this season along with the Titans, so there is
Speaker 2: an opportunity for Jamis if he decides to go crazy
Speaker 2: in the second half for them to pull off a
Speaker 2: backdoor cover. I worry about the Raiders. Mahomes has a
Speaker 2: bad record as a favorite or more than three record
Speaker 2: has been getting better the past two seasons. He's nine
Speaker 2: to six and one against the spread as a favorite
Speaker 2: of more than three the past two seasons. So you
Speaker 2: got to look at it not just holistically, but in
Speaker 2: some recency. And this team, they're turning the ball over,
Speaker 2: they can't get off, they can't stay on the field
Speaker 2: on third down. I just worry they're not going to
Speaker 2: have that many opportunities to score against the Chiefs defense
Speaker 2: that is pretty good. So the one thing they have
Speaker 2: going for them is brock Bauers has the most receptions
Speaker 2: for a rookie tight end since two thousand and the
Speaker 2: one thing the Chiefs haven't been able to do this year.
Speaker 2: They couldn't guard Kittle, they couldn't guard Isaiah Likely, they
Speaker 2: couldn't guard Mike Kiseki. For the Bengals, all of them
Speaker 2: had either close to one hundred or just under one
Speaker 2: hundred yards receiving, but none of them won the game.
Speaker 2: So I lean Browns if I have to choose one
Speaker 2: of them, I don't want to, but that's what I
Speaker 2: would do.
Speaker 1: By the way, Packers is three and a half at
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. Screams Jags, doesn't it?
Speaker 2: Yes on it Screamshags so much it's moved from four
Speaker 2: and a half to four to three and a half.
Speaker 2: I think at three and a half you're sort of
Speaker 2: at the bleeding edge of what the.
Speaker 4: Wise guys would do.
Speaker 2: They're really not that interested in it, but they would
Speaker 2: still do it because they're getting the hook.
Speaker 4: But you missed the best of the number on that one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Chad Miller. You want to talk about
Speaker 1: the Lions, Well, they played a brilliant football game, and
Speaker 1: so I don't think teams play perfect back to back.
Speaker 1: So let's discuss the number. So my rule, the biggest
Speaker 1: number on the board I throw out. I don't want
Speaker 1: to be a sucker. Detroit minus eleven and a half
Speaker 1: hosting Tennessee, so you're off a huge, intense divisional game.
Speaker 1: Tennessee is a seller now near the trade deadline. They're
Speaker 1: moving off people. That worries me in the locker room.
Speaker 1: You know it's a better team. What say you on
Speaker 1: the line eleven and a half? That's a college line.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's massive, and I'd almost always ignore it, but
Speaker 2: I have bet the Lions, full disclosure, I bet him
Speaker 2: at ten and a half.
Speaker 4: I don't hate it eleven.
Speaker 2: This game is power rated by Professional betters closer to
Speaker 2: thirteen or fourteen. But the book makers know they can't
Speaker 2: post a thirteen, they can't post a fourteen. They'll immediately
Speaker 2: get money on Tennessee at that big of a number.
Speaker 2: And it's totally realistic for the game to land around
Speaker 2: thirteen or fourteen. But again it goes back to the
Speaker 2: offensive line. This is a dominant team. Is the best
Speaker 2: team in the NFC, bar nun They are on a
Speaker 2: collision course with the Chiefs to play in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Jared Goff is the best quarterback against the spread in
Speaker 2: the NFL the past several seasons. The line the past
Speaker 2: four seasons seventy percent against the spread. That is an
Speaker 2: unmatched trend for them other than the New England Patriots
Speaker 2: of their middle arts dynasty, middle teens dynasty. So I
Speaker 2: don't hate the Lions here. If I'm betting any of
Speaker 2: the big favorites, it's going to be on the Lions.
Speaker 4: Fair enough.
Speaker 1: Chad Milman, Sharper Square, get better, Get well, my friend.
Speaker 4: Thank you sir the volume.
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
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