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Speaker 1: Time today. What time is it? Game Time? Well, that

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Speaker 1: was a great Thursday night football game. I've got so

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Speaker 1: many thoughts on it. Rams beat the Minnesota Vikings thirty

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Speaker 1: to twenty. That's as bad a missed call in a

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Speaker 1: big spot in an NFL game that I've seen in

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Speaker 1: a long time. Fans tend to get worked up over

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Speaker 1: pass interference calls, but those are subjective. That's like an

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Speaker 1: NBA game. You know, you could call foul every time

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Speaker 1: down the floor, you could call PI every time the

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Speaker 1: balls down the sideline, but a face masking call. I mean, hell,

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Speaker 1: Kirk Kerbstreet saw it. We all saw it on television.

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Speaker 1: Like Donald's head, get Yang back now. I don't think

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Speaker 1: they were going to drive ninety seven yards score a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: The Rams defensive front which is really young Aaron Donald left,

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Speaker 1: but they have stocked at the last two years with

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Speaker 1: really good players, young Verse on the front, Kobe Turner,

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Speaker 1: a lot of good players, and so I don't think

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Speaker 1: Donald was driving down to score a touchdown and the

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Speaker 1: two point conversion on the road. Nonetheless, that's a bad miss.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's so many things to start. First of all,

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Speaker 1: this week, they rumors came out that Cooper Cup and

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Speaker 1: Matt Stafford were on the trade block. Cooper Cup, I

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Speaker 1: believe you see how often they targeted Puka Nakua. He's

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Speaker 1: their future. Cooper Cup's good, but he's brittle, he struggles.

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Speaker 1: He's like an old NBA player. He struggles on like

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Speaker 1: back to back games on turf. You know, he's a guy.

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Speaker 1: Ideally for him and his body, you'd play him about

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Speaker 1: ten weeks a year. But for a good team, like

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Speaker 1: a Pittsburgh team that's playing well, now you get a

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Speaker 1: third fourth round pick for Cooper Cup. With Pickens on

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Speaker 1: the sideline routes, you'd have a real team. You know

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Speaker 1: he would be a boost. But for the Rams, you

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Speaker 1: know they're going to extract everything they can the rest

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Speaker 1: of the year. I don't know if they'll move him.

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Speaker 1: I think the Rams. I said this today on FS one.

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Speaker 1: There's no question in that division. San Francisco is not

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Speaker 1: as good as they were. Nobody's gonna trust Gino Smith

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Speaker 1: in Seattle. Arizona can be great and awful in the

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Speaker 1: same game. The Rams are now three and four. Remember

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Speaker 1: last year slow start, they won seven of their last eight,

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Speaker 1: got into the playoffs, and they they were a play

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Speaker 1: away from beating Detroit. So this idea of trading Cooper Cup,

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Speaker 1: I get it because of Puka Nakua, and I did

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Speaker 1: not expect Poka Naku would have played tonight. That's why

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Speaker 1: I had the vikings and the under on the Rams.

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Speaker 1: I didn't think Pooka n Aka was going to play.

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Speaker 1: And you know, he's just total game changer. It's it's

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Speaker 1: he's not justin Jefferson great, but he's a he's a

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Speaker 1: ten target, eight catch guy weekly basis for ninety five

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Speaker 1: to one hundred and fifteen yards. He's just a special player.

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Speaker 1: Fifth round or two. But the Matt Stafford trade rumors

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Speaker 1: are just don't make any sense to me. He's got

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Speaker 1: this year and next year under contract, then they can

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Speaker 1: walk away. But there's just not There's nobody in the

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Speaker 1: next two college drafts that is close to this. And

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Speaker 1: Sean McVay almost walked away from the NFL a couple

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Speaker 1: of years ago to take an Amazon job as a broadcaster.

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Speaker 1: He didn't want to start over with some you know,

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Speaker 1: half of these first round quarterbacks don't make it this

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Speaker 1: coming up draft, you know, I mean, I can see

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Speaker 1: the Rams in the third or fourth round taking Riley

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Speaker 1: Leonard out of Notre Dame, sitting them behind Stafford for

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Speaker 1: a year or two. But if you're not getting Shader Sanders,

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Speaker 1: I don't see anybody in this quarterback drafts that's going

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Speaker 1: to play immediately and excel at the NFL level. I

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Speaker 1: just don't. And that's what my couple sources who I've

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Speaker 1: talked about in the executive suites in the NFL tell me.

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Speaker 1: It's just this last draft was great quarterback draft. Next

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Speaker 1: two are just okay. So I mean Stafford four touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: twenty three to thirty two, nine different receivers, twenty seven

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Speaker 1: first downs. They're not getting rid of him. And I

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Speaker 1: said this last year and I'll say it again. They

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Speaker 1: need a number one corner. The Rams doing the draft,

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Speaker 1: they need a draft a sideline receiver, a speed receiver,

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Speaker 1: and they need another offensive tackle and probably another safety

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Speaker 1: for depth. But they're not that far away. If they hit,

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Speaker 1: they have a first and two thirds. If they hit

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Speaker 1: on those picks, team could win the Super Bowl. I

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Speaker 1: don't think there are a super Bowl team this year

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Speaker 1: at three and four, but Minnesota is a good team

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Speaker 1: and the Rams controlled that second half. So I just

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Speaker 1: I just don't. I don't buy into I don't buy

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Speaker 1: into Matt Stafford's moving. And I've said this before. Just

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Speaker 1: think about Aaron Rodgers. So Matt Stafford was a much

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Speaker 1: better high school player than Aaron Rodgers and a much

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Speaker 1: better college player than Aaron Rodgers, and was better than

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers their first four years in the league. And

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Speaker 1: then you know, Aaron's with the Packers, Stafford's with the

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Speaker 1: you know, bankrupt Lions, and you know, Stafford struggles to

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Speaker 1: win in the same division. Rodgers is, you know, out

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Speaker 1: of this world. For green Band deserves all the credit.

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Speaker 1: But what happens if Stafford the next two years makes

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Speaker 1: the makes the Rams a viable super Bowl team. It's

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Speaker 1: not unheard of San Francisco's peak. We don't trust Philadelphia's coach.

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Speaker 1: The Lions are the best team. But in a big spot,

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Speaker 1: Dan Campbell, Jared goff or mcvahan, Stafford with no Aiden Hutchison,

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Speaker 1: that game gets a lot closer. So I just look

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Speaker 1: at it and I think to myself, Stafford's here, load

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Speaker 1: up on draft picks the next two years, try to

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Speaker 1: have some hits. You know, the Rams defense is so

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Speaker 1: young that they can spend some money in free agency.

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Speaker 1: This year, they're not spending anything on defense. I mean,

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Speaker 1: those guys are all free, they're cheap. They got a

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Speaker 1: lot of second, third, fourth, fifth rounders all over that defense.

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Speaker 1: They're not paying anybody right now now that Aaron Donald's gone.

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Speaker 1: As far as the Vikings go, you know, Sam Donald

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Speaker 1: was fine outplayed in the second half. But it really

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Speaker 1: is interesting. So you know, we all kind of picked,

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Speaker 1: you know, Detroit green Bay to be the best in

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Speaker 1: the division, and then the Bears and the Vikings to

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Speaker 1: round it out. And I had said if the Vikings

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Speaker 1: finished fourth, it's the most talented offensive fourth place team

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Speaker 1: in the history of the NFL. They're not going to

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Speaker 1: finish fourth, I think, but I do think, and they've

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Speaker 1: got winnable games coming up. You know, they've got Titans, Jags, Colts, Arizona,

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Speaker 1: Bears twice, Seattle. You know, Vikings are a good team,

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Speaker 1: but I do think Detroit's got a better roster and

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Speaker 1: is a better team. And you saw it last week

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Speaker 1: when they played. And I think green Bay is so young,

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Speaker 1: we're not seeing the best version of green Bay. I

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Speaker 1: think over the next eight weeks, Packers are just going

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Speaker 1: to get better and better and better better. And I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be shocked if they if they got to a

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Speaker 1: super Bowl. I don't see them as a super Bowl

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Speaker 1: winning team this year, but it wouldn't shock me. They're

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Speaker 1: so young. Every time you watch green Bay they look better.

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Speaker 1: And that's the advantage of having a bunch of twenty

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Speaker 1: four year olds and twenty five year olds who are

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Speaker 1: just into their prime. Detroit's a little older, more seasoned,

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Speaker 1: and that's why I like Detroit if they met in

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Speaker 1: like like a playoff game, But you know, what do

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Speaker 1: you do with Stafford? So my guess is if the

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Speaker 1: Vikings end up being a good team winning ten games,

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Speaker 1: but they finish third because the Vikings, you know, I

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Speaker 1: don't think they're Detroit or Green Bay at their best.

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Speaker 1: And remember the Vikings may have just lost their left

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Speaker 1: tackle for some time. Cross your fingers on that. But

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Speaker 1: Darnold will have a market. I mean the last several years,

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Speaker 1: think about the quarterbacks who have had a market, Old Brady, Matt, Stafford,

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins. Darnald will have a market. Now,

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Speaker 1: somebody may overpay for him. You're not going to get

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Speaker 1: this Donald, He's not going to have this left tackle

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Speaker 1: justin Jefferson, this coach you know, probably Jordan Addison, TJ. Hawkins,

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Speaker 1: and you're not getting that Donald. But I think he'll

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Speaker 1: be somewhere between the mess in New York and the Vikings,

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Speaker 1: and he's a really coachable, likable kid. But you see

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Speaker 1: it to night when you put him on the field

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Speaker 1: with Stafford, Stafford is the better quarterback. I mean, Stafford's

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Speaker 1: got nine different receivers, his pre snap stuff. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the guy is just Matt is just insanely gifted. But

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Speaker 1: he has you know, he didn't have a brand. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't give a rip. He just loves football as family

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Speaker 1: and that's you know, he's not controversial. He doesn't talk

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Speaker 1: about conspiracy theories. He's just not who he is.

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Speaker 2: Man.

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Speaker 1: He's just a good old Texas Southern guy loves football

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Speaker 1: and family and keeps it quiet. But Donald will have

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Speaker 1: a market, and I think JJ McCarthy, who had a

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Speaker 1: great preseason, is kind of their future. And I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, if Donald gets the ten wins, ten to

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Speaker 1: eleven wins, that's a second third round pick. I don't

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Speaker 1: think you're gonna get a first for him. But Donald

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Speaker 1: will have a market. But they didn't draft JJ McCarthy

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Speaker 1: to move off him. So but I did think tonight

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Speaker 1: when you see Donald, and he's not reckless, he's gotten

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Speaker 1: the reckless out of him. But when you see him

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Speaker 1: on the same field with like a golf last week

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Speaker 1: or a Matt Stafford this week. He just doesn't feel

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Speaker 1: quite that. And I think Kevin O'Connell, who's a quarterback coach,

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of people like Sam Darnold, but

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Speaker 1: to give a guy a bag, you have to love

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Speaker 1: your quarterback, and so he'll have a market. I think

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Speaker 1: the Vikings will pull back a little, but again they're

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Speaker 1: both the Rams schedule and the Viking schedule. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot of wins. The other thing on the Rams tonight

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Speaker 1: they got Pooka Cooper cut back, but the interior of

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Speaker 1: their offensive line they're still missing two starters. So this

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Speaker 1: Rams team, which has a young, young, aggressive, talented defense

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Speaker 1: and a really good offensive line top five or six

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Speaker 1: in the league when healthy. So the Rams now are

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Speaker 1: starting to get healthy. Puka a surprise starter tonight, big,

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Speaker 1: big production. Just to give you a sense of how

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Speaker 1: valuable Poka Nakua is, and I didn't think he'd played tonight.

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Speaker 1: The Rams have won eight of the last nine games.

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Speaker 1: Pooka Nicua has played the only loss overtime loss on

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Speaker 1: the road to Baltimore, and with that win, the San

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Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers are now in last place in

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Speaker 1: the NFC West. How about that? But just watching Stafford

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Speaker 1: out there, Spinet, he is really really special. If you

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Speaker 1: ask yourself now that Brady's out of the league and

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Speaker 1: Breeze is out of the league, and I said to

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Speaker 1: you final drive, minute thirty one time out, final drive,

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Speaker 1: you'd take Mahomes, I'd argue I'd take Stafford second. He's

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Speaker 1: certainly in the argument. You know you'd take him. I

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Speaker 1: think over Lamar be is Lamar's lack of playoff success.

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Speaker 1: You know, Josh Allen a bigger, stronger athlete, but again

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Speaker 1: lack of playoffs success. I love Joe Burrow, but Burrow,

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Speaker 1: you know, I mean he may not make the playoffs

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Speaker 1: this year, and he's had some injuries. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: name the quarterbacks in the league. Minute thirty one time

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Speaker 1: out left have to go eighty four yards. I mean

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Speaker 1: it's Mahomes one. Stafford's on a short list at number two.

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Speaker 1: So the trade rumors kind of silly to me. And

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Speaker 1: I also think, you know, when you get we're always

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Speaker 1: trying to bum rush all these older guys out and

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Speaker 1: Stafford certainly had some injuries, but you watch his legs,

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Speaker 1: you watch his arms. He's obviously motivated. He's one of

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Speaker 1: the best pre snap guys in the league. You know

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Speaker 1: this isn't a guy that I mean he his wife

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Speaker 1: made a remark earlier, I think this year or late

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Speaker 1: last year about how young his teammates are. Yes, the

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Speaker 1: Rams are doing the Kansas City Chiefs model. They're going

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Speaker 1: to pay for offense. They are going to just keep

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Speaker 1: drafting defense, and I think the Rams defense, like the

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Speaker 1: Packers off is just going to get better the longer

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Speaker 1: the season goes. I think the Packers offense by week

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Speaker 1: thirteen could be the best offense in the league. It's

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Speaker 1: already one of the best. I think this Rams defense

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Speaker 1: is just getting better every time I see him. So

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Speaker 1: good win for the Rams tonight. Three to four. Minnesota

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Speaker 1: is still a good team with a lot of w's left.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think the Rams are selling I don't

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Speaker 1: Cooper Cup. If somebody offered you a second third, youd

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Speaker 1: take it. But I don't think people are going to

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Speaker 1: do that brittle expensive I think they may get a

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Speaker 1: fourth round pick and at that point just keep him,

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Speaker 1: just go win football games. I mean, he made a

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Speaker 1: huge catch up the sideline tonight late. That was a

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Speaker 1: big catch, So congrats to the Rams. Chad Millman, Sharp

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Speaker 1: Time for another edition of Sharp or Square, Chad Millman

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Speaker 1: CCO Action Network. I pushed at two to two and one.

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Speaker 1: All of our odds provided by DraftKings. So I have

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Speaker 1: been last couple of weeks, I've been moving toward best quarterback.

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Speaker 1: I do think defensive players statistically get hurt more than

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Speaker 1: offensive players. Defenses can weaken, and the quarterbacks separate. Coaching

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks separate this time every year. If you go look

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Speaker 1: at the AFC, the best quarterbacks lead each division. Kirk

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Speaker 1: Cousins leads his. By the way, if you look at

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Speaker 1: the quarterbacks playing best, I think eventually Jordan Love will

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Speaker 1: lead his division. That's the time of the year we're in.

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Speaker 1: So let me throw out a game that is fascinating,

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Speaker 1: and this really highlight lights how important numbers are. So Historically,

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks off concussions don't play their best the first week back.

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Speaker 1: But Arizona Miami at three and a half, I'm out.

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Speaker 1: But Arizona is the most inconsistent team in the league.

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Speaker 1: They often have the best quarters followed by the worst halfs.

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Speaker 1: If it's minus two and a half or minus three Miami,

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Speaker 1: I like them because Arizona High Low Hilow just beat

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Speaker 1: a team that I think is better than them, the

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Speaker 1: Chargers and Hardball. So what I feel is like, Oh,

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Speaker 1: here they go short week Monday night. Here they go

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Speaker 1: cross country. You lose it in prep. Here is Tua.

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Speaker 1: McDaniel played terribly with absolutely something to prove. They are

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Speaker 1: going to flex at They're going to keep starters into

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Speaker 1: the last play. That game interests me like Miami not

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Speaker 1: only needs to win, they've been so bad for a month.

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Speaker 1: They want to sell to that locker room. We are

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Speaker 1: a great team. This is a new page and a

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Speaker 1: new team forget the last month. Game fascinates me. I

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Speaker 1: would take Miami minus three, but the hook because of

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Speaker 1: concussions and the numbers behind those scare me. What are

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Speaker 1: the sharps think on this.

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Speaker 2: Now, It's like you are inside a professional better war room,

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Speaker 2: because that is the exact conversation earlier this week. This

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Speaker 2: line opened at three and a half, Arizona was the underdog.

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Speaker 2: The professional betters bet Arizona at three and a half.

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Speaker 2: When it got to three and it even touched two

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Speaker 2: and a half, professional betters started coming in on Miami,

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Speaker 2: and I apologize for people listening to my voice. It

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Speaker 2: sounds worse than it is. Don't worry. I'm gonna be fine.

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Speaker 2: The point is, Miami is the team professional betters are

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Speaker 2: backing for every reason you just said. They believe Tua

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Speaker 2: will make this team better. More importantly, they aren't believing

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Speaker 2: in Kyler Murray as a consistent winning quarterback going cross

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Speaker 2: country to play the Dolphins in a desperate, desperate situation.

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Speaker 2: So the wise guys are on Miami. Yeah, desperate spot,

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Speaker 2: you gotta win.

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Speaker 1: And I really do believe Miami. Mike McDaniels has to

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Speaker 1: rebrand this team fast because they've been the worst team

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Speaker 1: in the league for about a month and they have.

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Speaker 1: And also they're watching the Patriots fall apart and the

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Speaker 1: Jets fall apart, so it's like, guys, let's see second place,

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Speaker 1: first assignment Sunday. Let me get me.

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Speaker 2: Last week, I was sitting in an airport and I

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Speaker 2: was going over my notes for the favorites to the show,

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Speaker 2: and I couldn't remember who was playing quarterback for the

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Speaker 2: Miami Dolphins.

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Speaker 4: That's how off the radar there.

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Speaker 2: I had to look up literally Miami Dolphins starting quarterback,

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Speaker 2: and you know what came up, Tua. Google didn't even

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Speaker 2: know who the starting quarterback for Miami was. That's how

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Speaker 2: sort of forgotten they've been. So you're one hundred percent right.

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Speaker 2: They need to reframe who they are right now.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Colts in a desperate spot plus five rival game

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Speaker 1: at the Texans, the Green Bay game, there's a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a red flag on Houston.

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Speaker 4: So CJ.

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Speaker 1: Strouds in year two clearly needs Joe Mixon and Nico

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Speaker 1: Collins to be completed. He's getting worse protection. If you

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Speaker 1: watch the pass attempts and you watch the coaching, they're

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Speaker 1: getting a little conservative with him. It tells you that

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Speaker 1: if they're not completely healthy, the staff doesn't necessarily trust him.

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Speaker 1: Yet Conversely, Jordan Love throws ugly picks early that laflor

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Speaker 1: doubles down throw it more. They know they've got farv

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Speaker 1: on their hands. Jordan Love is an aggressive thrower, and

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Speaker 1: Lafleur totally backs in. But the way their coach Siege

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Speaker 1: Jay Stroud is telling me they're a little concerned with

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Speaker 1: the elements around him and sometimes as a second year player,

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Speaker 1: he needs though, he needs those the nicos, the Joe

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Speaker 1: mixons to fortify his game. So I'm going to take

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Speaker 1: the Colts plus five. It was six on DraftKings all

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Speaker 1: or odds provided by DraftKings Sharper Square.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's totally sharp.

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Speaker 2: In fact, it went from six and a half to six,

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Speaker 2: to five and a half to five. It's now at

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Speaker 2: four and a half in some places. Wise, guys have

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Speaker 2: been pounding the Colts. I'm going to take your theory

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Speaker 2: about better quarterback and expand it because that obviously isn't

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Speaker 2: the case in this scenario. But I do think one

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Speaker 2: of the reasons why the public has been winning so

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Speaker 2: much in the past two weeks. The public meaning if

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Speaker 2: there are more than fifty one percent of the bets

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Speaker 2: on one side that is a public side. For the

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Speaker 2: first five weeks of the year, the public was having

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Speaker 2: its worse season in the twenty years we've been tracking

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Speaker 2: this at Action Network the past two weeks. The public

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Speaker 2: is twenty two zero seven and one complete and total reversal.

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Speaker 2: Obviously Houston is going to be the public side here.

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Speaker 2: But what normally happens is bad quarterbacks and bad teams

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Speaker 2: with big numbers find a way to cover, and they

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Speaker 2: haven't been. This is a situation where I'm extrapolating. I

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Speaker 2: think it's more about good coaching and dominant unit. So

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Speaker 2: you have in the Colts the number one run blocking

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Speaker 2: unit in the NFL. You may get Jonathan Taylor back,

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Speaker 2: you practiced yesterday for the first time off of that

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Speaker 2: high ankle spring. You've got a great, great play caller

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Speaker 2: in Shane Steichen who last year almost got the Cults

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Speaker 2: of the playoff with Gardner Minshew. And by the way,

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Speaker 2: has this team at four and three and one game

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Speaker 2: out of the first place in the AFC South behind

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Speaker 2: the Texans, who they only lost two by two points

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Speaker 2: thread of this year. So that is why the wise guys.

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Speaker 4: Are coming in.

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Speaker 2: One trend for you division favorites the past eight years

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Speaker 2: forty six against the spread, So it's also a good spot.

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Speaker 1: One more underdog Seattle plush three against the Bills. So Seattle,

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Speaker 1: we haven't seen a lot of Seattle when they're healthy

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Speaker 1: upfront defensively, but boy did Kirk Cousins see that last week.

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Speaker 1: This is a really good defensive coach with some really

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Speaker 1: tasty defensive personnel. They're also getting their top cornerback. When

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Speaker 1: I look at Gino Smith, I look at him two ways.

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Speaker 1: With time and a run game. He's highly effective when

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Speaker 1: rushed sometimes on the road. He's not Buffalo is not

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Speaker 1: a team. Although I like him, I don't trust them.

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Speaker 1: They're a much better version of Arizona and at home

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Speaker 1: healthy a field goal. I this is hard for me

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Speaker 1: to turn down three and a half. It's one of

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Speaker 1: the best bets of the week. At three, I'd roll

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Speaker 1: with it. The Seahawks sharper square, so it's square.

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Speaker 2: The wise guys are on Buffalo, but I will tell you,

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Speaker 2: I'm with you. I don't understand why they're on Buffalo.

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Speaker 2: You know, we've talked about this before. We do a

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Speaker 2: segment on our show called Sharp Calls on Tuesday, we

406
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 2: talk about all the games. By Thursday, when we do

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Speaker 2: the next episode of the week, we've got feedback from

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Speaker 2: a lot of professional betters with their opinions on what

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Speaker 2: we talked about on Tuesday, and we will review those

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Speaker 2: on the show. Seattle Buffalo was one of the games

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Speaker 2: that we loved on Tuesday, and on Thursday we were

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Speaker 2: getting a lot of calls from professional betters so that

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Speaker 2: they weren't buying Seattle's defense, they weren't buying Gino Smith,

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Speaker 2: and they liked Josh Allen and the year that he's

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Speaker 2: having no interception hasn't thrown an interception in nine games,

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Speaker 2: which is coming close to record breaking status. Right, But

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Speaker 2: I am with you, like the Bills beat up on

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Speaker 2: bad teams, yes, and they they use or struggle against

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Speaker 2: good teams. So if you're betting Seattle, then you are

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Speaker 2: basically taking a stand that you think Seattle is a

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Speaker 2: good team. And there is some evidence of that they

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Speaker 2: have gotten healthier, but there's evidence that they're a bad

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Speaker 2: team too, right, So I think that's what the wise

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Speaker 2: guys are playing here, that they just don't believe Seattle

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Speaker 2: is a very good team yet.

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Speaker 1: All right, all right, let's go to some favorites. Bears

427
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 1: minus two and a half at the Commanders, even if

428
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 1: Jaden Daniels plays, He's not at one hundred percent, and

429
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 1: you could you could clearly see with the Giants next

430
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:49,640
Speaker 1: week if Jade and Daniels plays, gets dinged pass rush

431
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 1: pretty good for Chicago, you could see them saying we're

432
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 1: going to Mariota, We're going to go into divisional play.

433
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: We got no interest. I think the Bears defense because

434
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 1: we're so fixated on calob and he's by the way,

435
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 1: he is building real rapport here with his offensive set.

436
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 1: I think the Bears defense is pretty well coached. Again,

437
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 1: it's a numbers game. I think if Jaden Daniels plays,

438
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 1: it will be mass protection. It will be a game

439
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 1: in which they coach him more safely, they call a

440
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:29,679
Speaker 1: game differently. He's the difference in the franchise. And I

441
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 1: think it's one of these games you look at and

442
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 1: you think, listen, if we had to not play him,

443
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 1: I mean, he hasn't practiced this week. Even if he

444
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 1: practices Friday, you kind of wonder what you get. I like,

445
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 1: Chicago minus two and a half here, pretty strong play

446
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 1: Sharper square.

447
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the sharp side.

448
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 2: And look, the betters are are almost literally banking on

449
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 2: the idea that Jaden Daniels isn't going to play in

450
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,959
Speaker 2: this game because he hasn't practiced, and there is a

451
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 2: there is a massive difference between Jade and Daniels and

452
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 2: Marcus Marrios. The Commanders have only punted twelve times this season.

453
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 2: That's tied with the Chiefs for the fewest since nineteen fifty.

454
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 2: They're perfect on fourth downs. They're fifty percent on third

455
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 2: down conversions. That is because of Jaden Daniels. That is

456
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: because of the threat that he poses. That is because

457
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 2: of what he can do as both a very accurate

458
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:31,239
Speaker 2: passer and a good runner. Without that, this is a

459
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,399
Speaker 2: different team. It stresses the defense, which isn't very good

460
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 2: even from a statistical point of view, but they don't

461
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 2: look as bad when Jaden Daniels is converting fourth downs

462
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 2: and converting third towns. There's fewer opportunities for the opposing

463
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 2: offense to get on the field and score points.

464
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 4: Kayleb Williams has.

465
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 2: Been a brilliant quarterback the past four weeks and by

466
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 2: the way, in the second half, he's covering the spread

467
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 2: at a rate that is only compared only matched by

468
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes right now. So this coming off of by

469
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 2: this team in this spot, it is a really good

470
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 2: time to bet the Bears at minus two and a half.

471
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 2: The wise guys are with you.

472
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 1: The Eagles are the only team in the league that

473
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: hasn't scored in the first quarter, and that matters when

474
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 1: they go on the road to face Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow,

475
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,959
Speaker 1: when he doesn't have to throw, but chooses to throw,

476
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: is as good as any quarterback in this league. All

477
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 1: quarterbacks when they're in a hole, face a different defensive.

478
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 4: Test.

479
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 1: Philadelphia, if they score, doesn't take big leagues. They're probably

480
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,199
Speaker 1: the most underachieving offense in the league based on personnel

481
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: and productivity. So here's a team in Cincinnati which has

482
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 1: shown an ability to start quickly. I think Philadelphia has

483
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 1: got much better players, but at minus two and a half,

484
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 1: basically season on the line, with Baltimore winning, Pittsburgh winning,

485
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: this is the season for Cincinnati at home. I only

486
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 1: give up two and a half against what I think

487
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 1: is one of the more poorly coached teams in the league,

488
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 1: yet one of the best rosters. I'll take the Bengals

489
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. Sharper square totally sharp.

490
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 2: The public is on the Eagles, and this line has

491
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 2: moved up. That's called the reverse line move. When the

492
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,400
Speaker 2: line moves in the opposite direction of where the majority

493
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 2: of the bets are. That tells you the professional betters

494
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 2: are coming in on the side of the team that

495
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 2: the line moved in the direction of. That is the

496
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 2: Bengals open to two. It's now at two and a half.

497
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 2: This is a bet on Joe Burrow.

498
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 4: Yep, that's all like.

499
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 2: He's twenty two six and one against the spread when

500
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 2: facing a team that just covered. Overall in his career,

501
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 2: he's sixty three percent. He's seventy percent against teams that

502
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:56,959
Speaker 2: are over five hundred. The challenge here is everyone should

503
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 2: be and has been, concerned about the Bengals defense.

504
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 4: But two things.

505
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 2: The Bengals defense has been really good defending against the

506
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 2: long pass and explosive plays. Yeah, that's the best way

507
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 2: for the Eagles to win. We've seen it time and again.

508
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 2: When they get the explosive plays, that's when they can

509
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: break it out. The rest of the time, their offense

510
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 2: isn't very good. We even sought against the Giants last week.

511
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 2: So the pros are with you. They're back ining Joe Burrow.

512
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 1: So you know, I love the number five. When a

513
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 1: team is favored by four and a half to five,

514
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: I feel like it's a graveyard for books that they

515
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: don't want to go to that number. But they're kind

516
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: of trapped. So San Francisco's at home. Dallas has not

517
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 1: matched up well against better teams. Now Deebo had pneumonia

518
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 1: as a pro athlete, I think he's available Sunday. I

519
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 1: think Jennings is available. Jordan Mason's the second leading rusher

520
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 1: in the league. He's a more than capable back. Teams

521
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 1: that are well coached with talent that deliver a stinker

522
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: in the biggest TV game of the week always play.

523
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 1: It's an easy team to coach hard. They will play

524
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 1: a much better football game. They're limited. No Brandon Ayuk,

525
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 1: no Christian They're limited, but I think they feel they

526
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 1: not only lost to the Chiefs, they were kind of embarrassed.

527
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 1: It was really a bad performance. I'm gonna swallow the

528
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 1: four and a half and take the Niners at home.

529
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 2: Sharper Square, Well, you said something there that is a

530
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 2: little bit too flip and dismissive. No Brandon Ayuk, no

531
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey. They might not have Deebo Samuel because the

532
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 2: guy has pneumonia like he was in the freaking hospital.

533
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 2: If you look at Rock Perdy's production, a third of

534
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 2: his production during the time he's been starting has been

535
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 2: going to Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Ayuk. If you include

536
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 2: Deebo Samuel, fifty percent going to those three guys. You

537
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 2: take away those three guys, and you know what you get.

538
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 2: Brock Purdy and what he did against the Kansas City Chiefs,

539
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 2: Like Ricky Pearsall is not Brandon Io.

540
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 1: I don't know if Rickey Pearsall can play right.

541
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 2: Ronnie Bell is not Deebo Samuel. It doesn't matter how

542
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 2: hard Kyle Shanahan coaches these guys this week. If they

543
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 2: can't play, they can't play. So that's the real issue.

544
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 2: It's why the wise guys took the Cowboys at six

545
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 2: and a half, took him at five and a half,

546
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 2: took them at five down to four and a half.

547
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 4: This thing's going to four.

548
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 2: I would not be surprised if it's at three and

549
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 2: a half by Sunday, because the wise guy money is

550
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: coming in on the Cowboys.

551
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 4: Then that's Ethan.

552
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 2: With all the chaos of Jerry Jones calling out Mike McCarthy,

553
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 2: who he could have fired after the Packers blew out

554
00:30:56,560 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 2: the Cowboys, and now he's upset with McCarthy's play calling.

555
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 2: The Cowboys are still inside, by the way, McCarthy thirteen

556
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 2: three and one off of the buy against the spread.

557
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: Okay, so a game. I want your opinion on this.

558
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 1: It seems easy. So when Malik Neighbors was out or

559
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: Cavon Thibadeaux for the Giants, it sounds alarming. But the

560
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 1: player that really decides the fate of this team is

561
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 1: Andrew Thomas. When bad quarterbacks don't have a left tackle,

562
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 1: they get hideous fast. The Giants are now last year's Giants,

563
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: right they They competed without Malik, with Dexter Lawrence, they

564
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: compete without Theibadeaux. I don't think they're a competitive football team.

565
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: So I get the Steelers for the record. The second

566
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 1: half against the Jets twenty four to nothing. New York's

567
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 1: goot players. It was a little old Russell Wilson. He's

568
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 1: now got a deep a run game. Arthur Smith, he

569
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: had protection moving well. We know the defense and motivations there.

570
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: I know it doesn't feel sharp, but Pittsburgh minus six

571
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: hosting a Giants team. Shane and Dable have been given

572
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 1: assurance by the owner. You're not going anywhere. It's not

573
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: a frenetic behind the scenes thing. Neither wants Daniel Jones.

574
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 1: I cannot bet Daniel Jones stand alone on the road

575
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 1: without his left tackle. It feels like the minus six

576
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 1: is sharp Steelers sharper square.

577
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 2: It's eh like, no one's really interested in this game.

578
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: If it wasn't a primetime game, it'd be the Corner

579
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,719
Speaker 2: TV game because the Giants are that bad. And you're

580
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 2: right about Andrew Thomas, Like we've talked about this. When

581
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 2: I'm handicapping and doing analysis, the first thing I'm looking

582
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,239
Speaker 2: at is the offensive line. One of the reasons I

583
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 2: like the Bengals against the Eagles is because Jordan Malatta

584
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 2: is out and he's being replaced with a guy named

585
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: Fred Johnson.

586
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 4: He gives up.

587
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 2: His pressure rate as a left tackle is twenty two

588
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 2: percent against opposing defensive ends. The average is six percent.

589
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 2: Offensive lines dictate your ability to run the ball, protect

590
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 2: the quarterback.

591
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 4: Score.

592
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 2: It's why I love the Lions so much. It's why

593
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 2: we love them so much. Last weekends the Vikings, It's

594
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 2: why we hate them. We hate the Giants against the Eagles.

595
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 2: I hate the Giants against the Steelers too. It's not

596
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 2: a great spot like a team that's been blown out

597
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 2: against a team that did the blowing out. That's a

598
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 2: bad formula if you want to be a better it's

599
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 2: very public to take the Steelers right now. I'm not

600
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 2: saying it's the wrong side, but it's not the sharp side.

601
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: Okay, there's always a game. I'm interested in your opinion.

602
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 1: Jets minus seven at New England. They humiliated New England

603
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 1: the first time. Drake may look pretty good last week.

604
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 1: The Jets are a surcus I mean it's they look

605
00:33:56,720 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 1: like they're significantly worse on defense without their best coach,

606
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,959
Speaker 1: Robert Sola. He was their best coach. They're not as

607
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 1: good in the two games defensively without him. Offensively, the

608
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,919
Speaker 1: first game they used motion. Aaron Rodgers doesn't like it.

609
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 1: By the second game, with a new coordinator, their motion

610
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 1: was cut in half. That is so Aaron. He doesn't

611
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 1: like motion. He wants to go to the line, keep

612
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 1: it clean all make the call. It's begging me to

613
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 1: take New England. Tell me where I should go.

614
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 2: Well, if you want to bet this game, which you

615
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 2: shouldn't want to and you definitely should not want to

616
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 2: make it one of your blaze in five because you're

617
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:38,240
Speaker 2: on a streak right now.

618
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 4: You take New England.

619
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 2: You've got Drake May, he's proving he can throw the ball.

620
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 2: You've got a depleted Jets secondary, which we saw last week.

621
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 2: Like every single play I felt like another Jets player

622
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 2: was going out. Even Sauce Gardner got banged up a

623
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 2: little bit in last week's game.

624
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 4: But you don't want to play this game. Oka.

625
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:06,320
Speaker 2: There are four big ish underdogs this week, the Jets,

626
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 2: the Titans, the Browns, the Raiders. There are two games wise,

627
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,880
Speaker 2: guys want to play the underdogs, one game they completely

628
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 2: want to ignore, and one game in which they want

629
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 2: to play the favorites, the Patriots Jets is the game

630
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 2: they want to ignore.

631
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 1: All right, you always give me a game that I

632
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 1: miss completely, what say you?

633
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 2: Well, look, we talked about some good ones since the

634
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 2: Indie I love those games. We talked about Chicago. We

635
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 2: haven't talked about Cleveland and Las Vegas and their matchups

636
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,280
Speaker 2: against the Ravens and the Chiefs.

637
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 1: One I can't stomach both. Just give me one. Pick one.

638
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 4: It's so hard, Like the wise guys love them both.

639
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 2: At this point, you're better off just betting the number,

640
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 2: and like it's a little bit more of a number

641
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 2: higher number with the Raiders and the Chiefs than it

642
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 2: is with the Browns and the Ravens. I lean If

643
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 2: I have to choose only one of them, I lean Browns.

644
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 2: I think they're closer to getting better. And again subscribing

645
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 2: to the theory that if I'm going to bet on

646
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 2: a really bad team that is a big underdog, I

647
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 2: want that team to at least have one dominant unit.

648
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 2: And the Browns do have a dominant defensive end in

649
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett, who wasn't even on the injury report this week.

650
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 2: They have a dominant cornerback and Denzel Ward who's been

651
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 2: playing great all season long. The Ravens do give up

652
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 2: a lot of points this most points in the second

653
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 2: half this season along with the Titans, so there is

654
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:48,280
Speaker 2: an opportunity for Jamis if he decides to go crazy

655
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 2: in the second half for them to pull off a

656
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 2: backdoor cover. I worry about the Raiders. Mahomes has a

657
00:36:55,280 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 2: bad record as a favorite or more than three record

658
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 2: has been getting better the past two seasons. He's nine

659
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 2: to six and one against the spread as a favorite

660
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 2: of more than three the past two seasons. So you

661
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 2: got to look at it not just holistically, but in

662
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 2: some recency. And this team, they're turning the ball over,

663
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 2: they can't get off, they can't stay on the field

664
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 2: on third down. I just worry they're not going to

665
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:23,320
Speaker 2: have that many opportunities to score against the Chiefs defense

666
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 2: that is pretty good. So the one thing they have

667
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 2: going for them is brock Bauers has the most receptions

668
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 2: for a rookie tight end since two thousand and the

669
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,319
Speaker 2: one thing the Chiefs haven't been able to do this year.

670
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 2: They couldn't guard Kittle, they couldn't guard Isaiah Likely, they

671
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 2: couldn't guard Mike Kiseki. For the Bengals, all of them

672
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 2: had either close to one hundred or just under one

673
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 2: hundred yards receiving, but none of them won the game.

674
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 2: So I lean Browns if I have to choose one

675
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 2: of them, I don't want to, but that's what I

676
00:37:57,840 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 2: would do.

677
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 1: By the way, Packers is three and a half at

678
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. Screams Jags, doesn't it?

679
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 2: Yes on it Screamshags so much it's moved from four

680
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 2: and a half to four to three and a half.

681
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 2: I think at three and a half you're sort of

682
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 2: at the bleeding edge of what the.

683
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 4: Wise guys would do.

684
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 2: They're really not that interested in it, but they would

685
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:19,879
Speaker 2: still do it because they're getting the hook.

686
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,919
Speaker 4: But you missed the best of the number on that one.

687
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Chad Miller. You want to talk about

688
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:32,919
Speaker 1: the Lions, Well, they played a brilliant football game, and

689
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 1: so I don't think teams play perfect back to back.

690
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 1: So let's discuss the number. So my rule, the biggest

691
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 1: number on the board I throw out. I don't want

692
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: to be a sucker. Detroit minus eleven and a half

693
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:52,240
Speaker 1: hosting Tennessee, so you're off a huge, intense divisional game.

694
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 1: Tennessee is a seller now near the trade deadline. They're

695
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 1: moving off people. That worries me in the locker room.

696
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,239
Speaker 1: You know it's a better team. What say you on

697
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 1: the line eleven and a half? That's a college line.

698
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's massive, and I'd almost always ignore it, but

699
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 2: I have bet the Lions, full disclosure, I bet him

700
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 2: at ten and a half.

701
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:16,240
Speaker 4: I don't hate it eleven.

702
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 2: This game is power rated by Professional betters closer to

703
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:24,479
Speaker 2: thirteen or fourteen. But the book makers know they can't

704
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 2: post a thirteen, they can't post a fourteen. They'll immediately

705
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 2: get money on Tennessee at that big of a number.

706
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 2: And it's totally realistic for the game to land around

707
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 2: thirteen or fourteen. But again it goes back to the

708
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 2: offensive line. This is a dominant team. Is the best

709
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 2: team in the NFC, bar nun They are on a

710
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 2: collision course with the Chiefs to play in the Super Bowl.

711
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 2: Jared Goff is the best quarterback against the spread in

712
00:39:56,600 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 2: the NFL the past several seasons. The line the past

713
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,800
Speaker 2: four seasons seventy percent against the spread. That is an

714
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 2: unmatched trend for them other than the New England Patriots

715
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 2: of their middle arts dynasty, middle teens dynasty. So I

716
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 2: don't hate the Lions here. If I'm betting any of

717
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 2: the big favorites, it's going to be on the Lions.

718
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 4: Fair enough.

719
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:26,400
Speaker 1: Chad Milman, Sharper Square, get better, Get well, my friend.

720
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:31,760
Speaker 4: Thank you sir the volume.

721
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,

722
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 1: take a moment rate and review