WEBVTT - Justin Wolfers & Kate Compton Barr 0:00:00.640 --> 0:00:04.160 Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, 0:00:04.360 --> 0:00:07.120 where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 0:00:07.160 --> 0:00:11.880 today's best minds and the latest you gove Economist Poul 0:00:12.119 --> 0:00:15.360 found that forty five percent respondents filled Trump had been 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:18.840 not at all or not very transparent about his health. 0:00:19.000 --> 0:00:21.560 We have such a great show for you today, the 0:00:21.720 --> 0:00:26.120 Think Like an Economist podcast. Justin Wolfers gets us up 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:30.120 to date on where we are with the stupid tariff saga. 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:35.639 Then we'll talk to can't Win Victory Funds Kate Compton 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:40.760 Barr about how running candidates who can't win could help 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:41.720 DEM's win. 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:43.120 But first the news. 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:46.800 My let me tell you Doge it was just so 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:50.880 effective at hitting its two trillion dollar goal and then 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:55.160 the one trillion dollar goal that they pushed back to that. 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:58.880 Now Trump needs help from Congress to help with nine 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:01.280 point four billion and Doge cuts. 0:01:01.680 --> 0:01:05.280 Yeah, this is one of my favorite stupid stories because 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:08.240 it's so stupid. So the White House is planning to 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:12.560 send a nine point four billion dollar recisions package to 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:15.959 Congress next Tuesday, giving lawmakers the opportunity to codify some 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:19.520 of the potential cuts identified by Dog. Now let us 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:21.959 just think about this for a minute, Doge came in 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:25.720 took power away from Congress. Was like, Congress, we know 0:01:25.920 --> 0:01:28.319 you're supposed to have the power of the purse, but 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:30.880 now Elon gets the power of the purse because he 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:33.960 gave a lot of money in Trump. Now Elon is 0:01:34.319 --> 0:01:36.440 either out or pretending to be out. 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:39.839 He is either. We don't really know what. 0:01:39.760 --> 0:01:43.160 The truth is, but either way, these cuts which were 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:46.880 identified by such people as big Balls. You'll remember Big 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:51.360 Balls with his big haircut. Is that nice cauliflower haircut? 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:54.080 That guy has found some cuts he'd like to make 0:01:54.120 --> 0:01:57.640 in the federal government. And so now the administration is 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:01.640 going to Congress to get help from them, castrating them. 0:02:01.760 --> 0:02:04.760 If you are a member of Congress, you have power, 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:08.080 or at least you used to have power. Stop fucking 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:12.280 giving it away. Pretend to care about your job. These 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:15.640 proposed cuts would trim one point one billion dollars, by 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:19.360 the way, a rounding error from the Corporation of Public 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:23.440 Broadcasting eight point three billion, and foreign assets from USAID 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:27.520 and Africa Development Foundation. So you're gonna USAID is like 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:34.680 impoverished people who need malaria medicine. The statistics I have 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:38.760 read three million people a year will die from these cuts. 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:41.040 The USA cuts, you know, they won't be able to 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:43.040 get food, they won't be able to get medicine, they 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:47.840 won't get all soft power from America will evaporate. China 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:52.239 will eat our lunch. Most of NPR and PBS's money 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:56.120 comes from non government sources, but the corporation allocates about 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:59.639 five hundred and thirty five million in federal funds annually 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:00.000 to them. 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:02.480 This is a rounding error. 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:05.520 It is a banishingly small amount of money in the 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:11.120 federal government, but it is because Trump World ideologically wants 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:16.720 to fuck over the mainstream media, wants to just make 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:20.360 life miserable for everyone. The Office of Management and Budget 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:23.799 has identified foreign eight grants that is convinced will bolster 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:26.200 its case for cutting relief for USAID. They're going to 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:29.840 cut President's Emergency Plan for AIDS relief. This is a 0:03:29.840 --> 0:03:35.360 bush legacy thing. PEP far AIDS relief prevention really important. 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:37.560 Donald Trump going to get rid of it. 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.440 So, speaking of getting rid of things, he's going to 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:44.360 cut aid for state unemployment systems, which that seems like 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:47.720 a really, really, really bad way to keep people from 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:51.160 slipping into homelessness after they get laid off. From many 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:53.640 of the stupid things that people are getting laid off 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:57.040 for today, like when paid a loan services and other 0:03:57.160 --> 0:04:00.600 loan services layoff people for AI and then go oops, 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:01.960 we got to hire everyone back. 0:04:02.480 --> 0:04:05.360 Yeah. Look, I don't think any of us should be 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:08.080 surprised by any of this. A lot of it is 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:12.600 trying to make government less effective so people can get 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:14.880 less from it. I want to read this sentence because 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:17.360 I think it's explained a lot. The White House is 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:21.320 terminating four hundred million in funds for states meant to 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:27.680 modernize their unemployment insurance systems. So remember when Trump and 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:30.679 Elin were like, we're going to cut fraud, waste, and abuse, 0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:34.000 We're going to modernize systems. What they meant was, we're 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:35.919 going to make it harder for you to get this 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:39.479 stuff that the federal government has been giving you. And 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:44.919 this great example of that. These systems needed to be 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:50.040 reshored during the pandemic because there was so much unemployment 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:53.159 and that led to a lot of fraud and a 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:56.720 lot of delays for beneficiaries. You got to update these systems. 0:04:56.839 --> 0:04:59.520 This is how we've gotten a lot of our problems. 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:04.720 Updating system saves money, right, because it spots fraud, it 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:07.000 ends waste and abuse. 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:08.040 These are the things. 0:05:08.400 --> 0:05:11.920 This is what Elon was saying he was actually doing, 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:15.320 and now they're preventing it from happening. So it just 0:05:15.440 --> 0:05:19.240 shows that so much of what Trump World said it 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:23.800 was doing wasn't real. So much of these things were 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:29.200 just not true. It's projection, it's lying, it's gaslighting, but 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:34.200 it's fundamentally Project twenty twenty five. It's fundamentally saying we 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:36.880 are going to make the government work less well, so 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:40.040 people believe us in the federal government, so we can 0:05:40.400 --> 0:05:43.760 grip down the federal government to the studs and cut 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:45.279 taxes for very rich people. 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:46.120 Yeah. 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:48.720 So, Maia, when I was reading this earlier, I was 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:52.880 wondering if I was reading The Handmaiden's Tail times, since 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:56.000 that's what this reads like. The Big Beautiful Bill treats 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:59.520 single parents differently, because as we know, there's many people 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:02.800 inside twenty twenty five who want to punish single parents 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:05.600 for apparently not staying in terrible marriages. 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:09.880 So one of the things that we keep seeing in 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:13.280 Trump administration, behind the sort of ethos behind a lot 0:06:13.320 --> 0:06:16.919 of these Project twenty twenty five theories, is that there 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:20.160 are these sort of moral components, these ways in which 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:23.560 they think that they can de incentivize things by making 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:26.760 it harder to get them, so de incentivize people from 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:29.240 losing jobs. I actually think they don't really care what 0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:31.599 happens to people. But this is one of these things. 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:35.480 So again, the thing that Democrats should be screaming about 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:39.400 and are bafflingly not is that they want to put 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:42.640 in something that means that if you have a child 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:47.400 over the age of seven, you must work eighty hours 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:49.839 a month in order to qualify for SNAP benefits. 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:51.120 So it used to. 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:55.000 Be that if you had a child under seventeen, you could, 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:56.120 you didn't need to work. 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:58.000 There was no work requirement for SNAP. 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:01.120 This is food okay, food stand If you are staying 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:03.000 at home with your child, you can get food simps. 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:06.320 But now if your kid is over the age of seven, 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:07.880 they have to be on their own. You have to 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:10.280 figure out childcare so you can work eighty hours a 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:12.520 month in order to qualify for SNAP benefits. 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:15.200 Again, this is the cruelty, is the point. 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:20.200 They don't want people who need SNAP to have children, right, 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:22.080 I mean that's what those those and again like this 0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:25.040 is not a ton of money, right, Like they're growing 0:07:25.440 --> 0:07:28.440 the you know the what the Pentagon is getting a 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:31.520 trillion dollars. I mean, this is not about saving money. 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:34.200 And even the Big Beautiful Bill in fact grows the 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:37.600 deficit three point seven trillion dollars. So this is not 0:07:37.760 --> 0:07:42.720 about saving money. This is about just complete and utter 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:47.360 it's just yeah, the conservative wish casting of influencing behavior 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:50.520 among citizens that has gone on for forty years now, 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:52.840 of stupidity and failed policy. 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:55.440 Yeah, it's just all the worst of everyone. 0:07:55.960 --> 0:07:59.040 So we've talked about a lot of the ills of 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:03.400 the Big Beautiful Bill, which seems ironically named at best. 0:08:03.640 --> 0:08:06.280 It looks like Senate Democrats actually have a tool to 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:08.320 stop it. Now, wonder if they will. 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:09.200 What do you think? 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:12.280 So this I think is important just to in case 0:08:12.280 --> 0:08:14.800 you haven't been to explain this. The Big Beautiful Bill 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:20.120 will be passed under reconciliation. Reconciliation is controlled by the 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:23.400 Senate parliamentarian. There are certain things, and you'll remember this 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:27.480 from the Biden administration, that can go in reconciliation, and 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:30.560 there are certain things that the parliamentarian rules that are 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:34.600 not okay to go in reconciliation. For example, reconciliation is 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:38.000 supposed to be about budget and not about say he 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:45.319 trying to limit judicial power, which the Republicans did. 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:45.800 Sneak in there. 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:50.400 Right, there's something in there about limiting judges power to 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:55.000 control the administration for the larger orders. So again the 0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:58.560 parliamentarian should rule, because you'll remember in twenty twenty the 0:08:58.640 --> 0:09:03.120 parliamentarian world. That's certain things right. For example, Democrats had 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:05.479 things they wanted to put in that bill, the parliamentarian 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:10.000 rule that they were against parliamentary procedure. We'll see what 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:13.400 happens here, but for sure, one of the things in 0:09:13.440 --> 0:09:18.560 here is that the parliamentarian said that they could not 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:23.360 nullify the Environmental Protection Action waiver allowing California to set 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:26.640 its own air policy standards on vehicles. They were given 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:30.840 this authority for a cleanout in nineteen seventy, so the 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:35.800 parliamentarian said they could not change it. While Republicans, I 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:37.640 know you're going to be shocked to hear this, they 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:41.000 decided that they would overrule it. So now California has 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:43.400 a chance. And by the way, I would think this 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:46.200 piece really opens the door to that. There are a 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:51.000 lot of chances that Democrats have here to the parliamentarian. 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:53.400 If the parliamentarian signs off on a lot of stuff, 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:57.080 it will be unprecedentedly crazy. My guess is that a 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.080 lot of this stuff she's going to be like, no 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:03.440 fucking why. And once she starts saying no way, I 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:06.080 think that there is going to be that There's quite 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:08.920 a lot that can fall by the wayside. I think 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:10.880 that we're going to see more of that, and if 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:14.360 Democrats are smart. I mean again, I don't know what 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:17.679 Democrats are going to do because they had not at 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:18.520 this moment been. 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:19.680 Covering themselves with glory. 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:25.040 But I hope that they will use this to push 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:27.840 Justin Wolfer is a host of You Think Like an 0:10:27.880 --> 0:10:31.439 Economist podcast and a professor at the University of Michigan. 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:34.560 Welcome to Fast Politics, Justin. 0:10:34.320 --> 0:10:36.800 Wolfers Fast Politics and Fast Economics. 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:38.600 That's right, speak very quickly. 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:41.000 Let's talk about where we are at this moment. 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:45.679 Fifty percent tariffs on the EU No wait, just kidding, No, 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:50.319 they don't start till July. Is it undermining Donald Trump's 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:53.960 own authority to be back and forth on something so major? 0:10:54.400 --> 0:11:00.000 I think the question might actually be leading the witness. Nah, 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:05.800 there are complicated times. I look, I'm coming on your 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:08.920 show right now as professor of economics. And I think 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:11.920 the best thing that I can give your audience is 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:14.600 the advice that nasal breathing can help calm you down. 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:20.040 And maybe we should just do a little bit of 0:11:20.040 --> 0:11:21.960 that meditation. 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:24.760 Then, right now, talk us through where we are. 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:25.280 Right now? 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:27.680 Are we in a pause in the trade war? 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:30.680 That's what Russ said to Rachel. 0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:35.800 Right, are we in a pause in the trade war? 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:41.760 No, now we're in multimar from multipolar. I don't know 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:46.360 what multipolar means. It sounds fancy, multi front. Yeah, trade war. Look, 0:11:46.360 --> 0:11:49.120 it's funny. Someone told me how to d They said, 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:52.280 you know, justin you're really funny. I know this is 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:54.720 about the economy, not about me, but I'm getting somewhere. 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:55.680 I'll take it. 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.760 And I'm like, no, I'm not funny, but jeez, the 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:00.800 world is giving us some cial right now. 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:02.040 Yeah. 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:05.000 So it turns out if you just literally describe what's happening, 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:08.080 people find it really funny when they're not crying. So 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:11.120 let me do that. The President on April second, declared 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:13.559 Liberation Day. The American economy would be fixed. He was 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:15.640 going to use his favorite tool, tariffs. Tariffs were going 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:17.840 to do a lot of things they were going to 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:22.400 get rid of fentanyl, illegal immigration, secure national security, bring 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:27.480 manufacturing jobs home, raised revenue, allowed tax cuts for the rich, 0:12:27.880 --> 0:12:32.559 and balance bilateral trade deficits. I think some other things, 0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:37.800 qre toe fungus. So he announces that on April second, 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:42.160 April ninth, markets have freaked out. Everyone has called the 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:43.800 White House and said, don't do this. You're destroying the 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:46.200 American economy. Rather than the media was wrong in the 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:50.040 President Revers's course and says, I was just kidding. I 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.880 didn't actually want tariffs. What I wanted was negotiating power 0:12:53.800 --> 0:12:57.040 the deal out of the deal right right exactly the 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:00.560 partly incoherent tariffs he took off, declared a NY pause, 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:02.520 kept ten percent tariffs on every country around the world, 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:04.360 and said we're going to make deals. A couple of 0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:07.400 weeks later said in an interview, I've now made two 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:12.120 hundred deals. The Treasury Secretary reported, in fact that he 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:16.440 meant sub deals, not deals a new word. They reported 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:20.760 that they were already had been called by dozens and 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:23.760 later more than dozens of countries. They said they were 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:25.840 making trade deals left, right and center, and they already 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.600 made a dozen or more. But in Navarro says they 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.440 were going to make ninety deals in ninety days. A 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:34.120 typical trade deals, by the way, from a fully staffed, 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:38.240 coherent White House, takes two years from one country. We 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:40.760 have one hundred and ninety two trading partners, so Navara says, 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:45.720 in ninety days later, on about halfway through the ninety 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:49.080 day pause, people start asking about thirty days into this 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.559 ninety day paus and they have to get ninety one 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:54.240 a day done. And we're currently batting zero, which is 0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:59.520 a very low test score, low batting average. We're getting zero, 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:01.880 and so people get answer and they're like, hey, where's 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:05.120 the deals man. So the next day, the White House 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:08.160 announces a trade deal with Britain. In a subsequent press conference, 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:10.719 the British Prime Minister, when asked did you expect to 0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:13.640 be announcing a trade deal today, said no. I was 0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:17.240 called halfway through the Arsenal football game. So that says 0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:19.640 literally the night before someone from America called and said 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:21.240 we're in the middle of something, but we now need 0:14:21.240 --> 0:14:23.680 to announce tomorrow. So they announced a lot of pomp 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:26.000 and ceremony. The President declared it the greatest trade deal 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:29.120 ever made. You read the document, which wasn't released that day. 0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:30.960 I was released the next day. The document ends with 0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:34.320 both sides acknowledged that this is not illegally binding agreement. 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:36.560 So at that point where now zero trade deals. The 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:39.360 Trump does not call president. She makes it very clear. 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:41.400 He didn't call president. She President. She makes it clear 0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:44.960 he didn't call Trump. It's somehow miraculously they communicated. There 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.440 was a meeting in Geneva. The Treasury Secretary went over 0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:51.440 and at the end they declared a trade deal. What 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:53.440 you actually saw was they had incredibly high tariffs on 0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:55.760 each other, prohibitively high. One hundred and forty five percent 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:57.880 is what we had on China. They had under twenty 0:14:57.920 --> 0:14:59.400 five percent on us. They both said, this is point. 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:03.280 Let's let's let's move it back down. They did you 0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:07.320 read the agreement? The agreement. The deal is the United 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.920 States and China agrees to have mechanisms by which we 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:10.840 can talk in the future. 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:12.240 Right, but that's not a deal. 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:14.920 Okay, so we still move forward. Navarro is still saying 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:18.520 we're ninety deals in ninety days. Time moves on, and 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:21.080 then suddenly Trump discovers this is not a joke. He 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:24.080 discovers that if you try to make ninety deals, ninety 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:25.960 countries will try and call you at the same time, 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:31.280 and metaphorically, the White House switchboard gets jammed, right, So 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:34.560 he says, well, actually, we're not going to have ninety 0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:37.120 deals in ninety days. Some of these deals, we're just 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:38.040 going to send them a letter. 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:39.040 Right now. 0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:42.480 Moly, I'm in a relationship, and when Betsy and I 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:44.920 want to organize our lives together, we sit down and 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.160 meet and we talk about it, and there's give and take, 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:48.560 and I say what I want and she says which 0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:51.080 she needs. But if I instead just said, Betsy, I'm 0:15:51.120 --> 0:15:52.800 going to send you a letter. Whatever it is that 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:55.200 Betsy and I trade back and forward would no longer 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:58.520 be traded. That's not a deal. So the new deal 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:00.880 is that we're going to send everyone a letter. Fair enough, 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:02.520 except they're going to make deals now with the eighteen 0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:05.640 biggest trading partners, which becomes very complicated because Australia starts 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:07.800 calling me and they say a wee eighteenth or nineteenth 0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:10.880 It depends which table you look up right, no one knows, 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:13.720 and then I know I'm going on. But this is 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:14.280 just no. 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:16.760 This is where we need to get caught out on 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:17.840 the back for us. 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.440 Yeah, and okay, so we're still at no trade deals. 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:24.920 And in the midst of all this, the President says, 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:26.640 and I kid you not, this is the craziest thing. 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:29.880 The President says, the European Union and not negotiating in 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:30.360 good faith. 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:33.520 Yeah, why what's the driver on that? 0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:38.520 Honestly, the Europeans take trade seriously and they want grown 0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:40.600 up talks, and they are hard to deal with. I mean, 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:43.800 someone who's printch for crying out loud, but I mean, 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:46.640 I just want you to understand the context of this. Right, 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.040 He's failed to get anything done with anyone. And in 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:51.760 the middle of the pause, and it's literally a pause, 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:54.480 it's pause talk, July nine says, well, they're not even 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:58.440 doing anything good faith, to which I believe the Europeans 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.640 are entitled to the old response. I thought we were 0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:04.639 on a pause, and so he says, they're not acting 0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:07.280 in good faith. So I am going to raise tariffs 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:09.159 on the European Union to fifty percent. He did that 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:12.359 last Friday, to be clear, because it's a high wage 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:15.399 country set of countries, as the United States is, A 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:19.400 fifty percent tariff effectively means stop the boats. It's an embargo. 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:22.360 Nothing's coming in I also want to impress upon people 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:22.800 of steaks. 0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:22.959 Here. 0:17:22.960 --> 0:17:25.439 You might be thinking, oh, well, if liberals are going 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:27.720 to have to do without their French wine, you'll have 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:31.000 to drink Spanish wine like no, no, even Spanish, boy, 0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:34.200 You'll have to drink Argentinian, although I would recommend Australian. 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:37.600 And maybe people felt good about your next New York 0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:41.119 party having slightly less fancy wine. Malysian. That's how you 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:45.200 spend your days, right, is it? I mean you don't. 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:49.480 I don't drink, so I don't have a I don't 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:51.440 have a horse in this race. But I do understand 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:54.399 this is not just about wine and cheese. And I 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:57.560 hope you all in late exactly. Mulley's stealing all my 0:17:57.600 --> 0:17:58.320 economics points. 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.000 So one of the things that's happened weeks is Molly 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:05.040 has graduated from political commentator to economic analyst. And I'm 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:08.280 not making fun of Molly. I'm proud, proud of my girl, 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:12.120 am I let's say that. 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:16.720 Yes, No, I mean I did write a lot about subprime. 0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:18.920 So I have had some but yes. 0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:22.840 Oh I'm sorry. 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:25.320 No, No, listen if you want to. 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.240 It is different than subprime, and and you know these 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:29.440 are different things. 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:31.480 You know, and if you want to be a serious 0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:33.639 political analyst in the current moment, you do need to 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:36.120 think about and understand the economics, which is why you've 0:18:36.119 --> 0:18:41.959 been doing your seduous sleep. What following, let's get back 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:42.520 to the story. 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:43.680 Let's get back. 0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:46.720 Yes, yes, yes, you know, my therapist told me to 0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:52.359 keep going. Okay, so what we get? So what do 0:18:52.359 --> 0:18:54.440 we get from Europe? Actually the most important thing is 0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:57.399 like precision machinery. So if you want to build a 0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:00.399 factory in America, if you want to get your stuff 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:03.359 packaged out the door. You know those big conveyor belts 0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:05.600 that look so gleaming and sexy, most of them come 0:19:05.600 --> 0:19:08.720 from Germany readily. So if you're halfway through building a 0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:10.639 factory and you just found out the price of your 0:19:10.760 --> 0:19:13.040 equipment if you buy it goes up fifty percent, you 0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:17.399 might actually just stop building the factory, right President, We 0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:21.639 get chemicals, we get pharmaceuticals. In fact, most of what 0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:23.880 we get from Europe you would classify as inputs into 0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:27.280 American production wine and cheese. 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:33.360 So that's things like parts of cars, parts of things. 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:38.680 Electronics parts. This is how you sabotage the American industry. 0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:40.560 That's all right, you might be upset about it. I 0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:42.560 was on Friday, but don't worry. We got all the 0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:45.679 way through to Monday before the president back down. And 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:48.120 I think basically the European Union called and said, hey, 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:51.320 we're on a pause. Why do you think we can 0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:54.440 negotiate a trade deal in less than ninety days, given 0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:56.240 that your entire trade team has been off doing all 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:59.760 sorts of other things instead. Yeah, So now the pause, 0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:02.840 the ninety day pause that came into effect on April ninth, 0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:05.560 that he then paused, So he paused the pause on Friday. 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:09.240 On Monday, he paused the pause on the pause, resuming 0:20:09.240 --> 0:20:13.359 the original pause that paused July fourth, right, or the ninth. 0:20:13.840 --> 0:20:18.120 July fourth is when we enjoy freedom from tyranny and 0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:23.320 we celebrate small government ironically, Yes that we will. 0:20:23.400 --> 0:20:26.080 We celebrate lot steeped in irony. 0:20:26.520 --> 0:20:29.920 Yes, we celebrate we move away from a single king. 0:20:30.840 --> 0:20:33.640 Yes, towards a single king. 0:20:34.000 --> 0:20:37.639 We shall celebrate it like no other. So anyway, the 0:20:37.720 --> 0:20:40.719 pause that was paused got unpaused, and so we're back 0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:43.320 to the original pause, which means now that as of 0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:46.359 July ninth, we'll learn what's happening with trade with the 0:20:46.400 --> 0:20:50.920 European Union. Okay, now to rewind. Our trading situation with 0:20:51.000 --> 0:20:53.760 the European Union is currently unknown until July ninth. Our 0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:57.040 trade situation with Britain is currently unknown because we have 0:20:57.160 --> 0:21:00.840 no agreement, but we've agreed to continue talking. Trading situation 0:21:00.960 --> 0:21:03.399 in China is unknown because all we agreed is to 0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:05.639 continue to keep talking. And there are one hundred and 0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:07.920 eighty nine other countries around the world, none of whom 0:21:07.960 --> 0:21:10.320 have made headlines, with the exception of course, of the 0:21:10.359 --> 0:21:15.480 Herd mcdonaldet Islands, which the Trump administration subsequently discovered is 0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:18.800 uninhabited and therefore they are unlikely to do a deal 0:21:19.040 --> 0:21:23.240 with that particular set of penguins. 0:21:23.600 --> 0:21:29.240 Right now, we have the highest tariffs ever since World 0:21:29.280 --> 0:21:29.680 War Two. 0:21:30.480 --> 0:21:35.560 I'd say since nineteen thirty four. It depends on the day. 0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:39.560 In the nineteen twenties, the LTE nineteen twenty it's. 0:21:39.480 --> 0:21:46.800 Just so god so the is I never did smoot, 0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:50.040 so you could just trick. But I hear that a 0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:53.160 lot of things happening background then, not the LEA tariffs, 0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:56.560 the Depression era as smooth Haly tariffs, which a couple 0:21:56.640 --> 0:21:59.480 of weeks ago, our tariff rates were higher than smoot Hay, 0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:04.080 then they got lower. If the European unions at fifty percent, 0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:06.679 it's hard to do math in my head might be 0:22:06.760 --> 0:22:11.880 higher again. But actually, let me simplify it for our audience. 0:22:13.440 --> 0:22:17.520 For an industrialized country, the standard tariff right is round 0:22:17.560 --> 0:22:22.280 about one to two percent. The tariffreate that almost every country, 0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:25.600 with a few small exceptions charges the United States is 0:22:25.640 --> 0:22:28.439 about one to three percent. So if the United States 0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:32.040 has an average tariff rate as of today, I'll remember 0:22:32.080 --> 0:22:35.159 ten percent on the whole world, thirty percent on China, 0:22:35.640 --> 0:22:38.760 twenty five percent on orders. It gets very, very complicated. 0:22:38.800 --> 0:22:41.400 We have very large spreadsheets. I've got friends who are 0:22:41.480 --> 0:22:44.840 maintaining all of this. But roughly speaking, the American tariff 0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:47.840 rate is ten times higher than it was on January first, 0:22:48.440 --> 0:22:51.960 ten times highed and similar countries, and ten times highed 0:22:52.000 --> 0:22:55.159 in our trading partners. So this is, you know, when 0:22:55.200 --> 0:22:57.240 you're not tarift from one hundred and forty five percent 0:22:57.280 --> 0:22:59.560 down to thirty percent, as we do with China. That 0:22:59.600 --> 0:23:03.359 sounds like a lot, but it's not. It's moving from 0:23:03.480 --> 0:23:05.880 an embargo to lunacy, right. 0:23:06.200 --> 0:23:08.360 I think that's a really good point in a bargo 0:23:08.440 --> 0:23:11.080 to lunacy. So where are we now a China. I 0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:13.240 thought we were down to ten percent with China. 0:23:13.960 --> 0:23:16.000 We are so here, and I want to be very 0:23:16.080 --> 0:23:17.960 careful with my language, and I want your listeners to 0:23:18.000 --> 0:23:21.760 follow the same habit. So Molly didn't say, but many 0:23:21.760 --> 0:23:24.520 others would say. They'd say, I thought we had a 0:23:24.560 --> 0:23:26.520 thirty percent tariff on China and they have a ten 0:23:26.560 --> 0:23:30.320 percent tariff on us. That gets the numbers right, but 0:23:30.320 --> 0:23:33.480 it gets the words wrong. What you have is a 0:23:33.600 --> 0:23:36.800 thirty percent tax on Americans who buy from China, right, 0:23:37.960 --> 0:23:40.280 They have a ten percent tax on Chinese people who 0:23:40.280 --> 0:23:43.520 buy from America. By the way, that thirty percent probably 0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:47.880 hurts us a lot, right. So if you're doing any 0:23:47.920 --> 0:23:51.040 sort of importing, and it's not just finished goods, remember 0:23:51.040 --> 0:23:52.639 a lot of what we buy in fact from China 0:23:52.680 --> 0:23:55.119 as equipment. If you're a tradesman, a lot of your 0:23:55.119 --> 0:23:57.639 tools might come from China, You're going to be charged 0:23:57.800 --> 0:24:00.800 a thirty percent up charge order. The point what I 0:24:00.840 --> 0:24:03.760 want you to realize is that in every other country 0:24:03.800 --> 0:24:06.040 around the world, if you want to build a factory 0:24:06.080 --> 0:24:09.560 and buy Chinese made equipment for that factory, you can 0:24:09.640 --> 0:24:12.440 do so without a thirty percent up charge. The only 0:24:12.440 --> 0:24:14.840 country that gets this thirty percent up charge is the 0:24:14.920 --> 0:24:17.280 United States, and that might make you really mad. You 0:24:17.359 --> 0:24:19.480 might be really mad at China. Why is China charging 0:24:19.520 --> 0:24:23.000 me a thirty percent up charge? It's not that's not Beijing, 0:24:23.240 --> 0:24:30.440 that's Washington, right right right. In addition, Beijing is taxing 0:24:31.000 --> 0:24:33.080 Chinese people who buy from the United States. That's going 0:24:33.119 --> 0:24:37.320 to lead on balance some number of purchases, particularly of 0:24:37.320 --> 0:24:39.760 agricultural goods and commodities. Why would you pay more to 0:24:39.800 --> 0:24:43.120 buy from an American They're going to purchase from elsewhere. 0:24:43.640 --> 0:24:47.200 So that's what's going to hurt, particularly the farmers. Basically, 0:24:47.240 --> 0:24:48.960 they're going to have to cut their prices in order 0:24:49.000 --> 0:24:49.760 to sell their goods. 0:24:50.080 --> 0:24:52.080 Farmers are going to have to cut their prices in 0:24:52.200 --> 0:24:53.240 order to sell their goods. 0:24:53.560 --> 0:24:55.359 Well, if we've got a thirty percent tariff from China, 0:24:55.400 --> 0:24:57.240 if you were trying to sell stuff to China before, 0:24:57.640 --> 0:24:59.360 the Chinese are not going to pay thirty percent extra 0:24:59.400 --> 0:25:01.400 for American so beans. They'll buy their so ebens from 0:25:01.400 --> 0:25:01.840 someone else. 0:25:02.680 --> 0:25:06.440 But there aren't huge There aren't huge tech, there aren't 0:25:06.480 --> 0:25:08.160 huge margins with farming. 0:25:08.640 --> 0:25:10.640 There's not huge margins on lots of things. 0:25:11.000 --> 0:25:11.320 Yes. 0:25:12.480 --> 0:25:17.120 So, by the way, huge margins. I know you want 0:25:17.160 --> 0:25:20.960 to talk about farmers, but you know what has high 0:25:20.960 --> 0:25:24.439 paying jobs, that has really fat margins, and that you 0:25:24.480 --> 0:25:26.119 don't have to walk out in your field and do 0:25:26.200 --> 0:25:28.760 backbreaking work and when you're not at the mercy of 0:25:28.800 --> 0:25:29.240 the weather. 0:25:30.000 --> 0:25:30.160 Yeah. 0:25:30.520 --> 0:25:33.760 Education. I am one of America's great exporters. I know 0:25:33.840 --> 0:25:36.600 I don't farmer, I don't even sound like an American, 0:25:37.280 --> 0:25:38.920 but I have students come from all around the world 0:25:38.960 --> 0:25:41.000 who want to fly into the University of Michigan to 0:25:41.080 --> 0:25:43.800 do exactly what we're doing right now. Molly, talk economics 0:25:44.240 --> 0:25:47.680 together for long, baby, Right, I'm not allowed to export. 0:25:47.920 --> 0:25:49.720 It's one of the few goods we're in order to Normally, 0:25:49.760 --> 0:25:51.600 when we export, we send the goods abroad. When we 0:25:51.640 --> 0:25:54.840 export services. You come into America, you get the service, 0:25:54.840 --> 0:25:57.960 you leave, but you're leedy cash behind. They're not letting 0:25:57.960 --> 0:26:00.280 them in the country. You're don't let them in. They 0:26:00.280 --> 0:26:01.920 they're not going to send their checks. If they're not 0:26:01.960 --> 0:26:04.479 sending their checks, then there's going to be I know, 0:26:04.720 --> 0:26:07.040 I get it. No one likes the feed liberals and 0:26:07.119 --> 0:26:10.400 higher education and indoctrination and all of that, but actually 0:26:10.440 --> 0:26:15.240 we are the future. The question for your listeners is 0:26:15.280 --> 0:26:18.720 do you want your kids to grow up and work 0:26:18.760 --> 0:26:21.560 in a factory that was created because of Trump's tariffs 0:26:22.119 --> 0:26:23.920 or would you rather them have the sort of job 0:26:23.960 --> 0:26:26.359 that I am so privileged to have where I get 0:26:26.400 --> 0:26:28.719 to wake up and read and talk to interesting people 0:26:29.440 --> 0:26:32.560 and educate and I get paid more and your kids 0:26:32.560 --> 0:26:35.040 will get paid more if we grow the higher education sector. 0:26:35.200 --> 0:26:37.600 And so just the very direct since my industry is 0:26:37.640 --> 0:26:41.120 directly under threat, the set of jobs that surround that industry, 0:26:41.119 --> 0:26:42.920 the people who work for the University of Michigan and 0:26:43.000 --> 0:26:45.520 universities across the country, and that's before we get into 0:26:45.560 --> 0:26:48.040 the rest of everything else that higher education brings to 0:26:48.080 --> 0:26:49.720 our lives. Just so that I put a little ad 0:26:49.720 --> 0:26:51.320 in for my industry, mate. 0:26:51.040 --> 0:26:53.920 I wonder it would just see so much back battling 0:26:53.960 --> 0:26:56.400 with the tariffs, which I think is actually thank God 0:26:56.480 --> 0:26:59.800 for that, remember, because there were weeks and weeks where 0:26:59.800 --> 0:27:04.200 he wouldn't back battle. But I wonder again, like, you 0:27:04.200 --> 0:27:07.120 can't predict the future, but you can sort of read 0:27:07.200 --> 0:27:11.800 the past. So, uh, what do you think what would 0:27:12.040 --> 0:27:17.320 a good resolution of this problem look like? And what 0:27:17.440 --> 0:27:21.000 would a sort of trumpy resolution of this problem look like. 0:27:21.440 --> 0:27:24.560 Okay, let me start on backpedaling. Liberals have taken particular 0:27:24.640 --> 0:27:27.119 delight that the president takes in a super mucho stance 0:27:27.119 --> 0:27:29.000 and then a week later backs off. This time it 0:27:29.080 --> 0:27:31.760 was three days later, but you know sometimes at lasts 0:27:31.800 --> 0:27:34.439 even more days than that. I don't think they should. So, 0:27:35.000 --> 0:27:37.680 first of all, realize the what do you The things 0:27:37.680 --> 0:27:42.159 he's backed off on are the profoundly insane, like the 0:27:42.400 --> 0:27:46.040 truly fruit loopy. So the April two tariffs that he 0:27:46.080 --> 0:27:50.119 called reciprocal tariffs, where he was putting a fifty percent 0:27:50.160 --> 0:27:53.400 tariff on Lsto because he thought Lesotho was somehow must 0:27:53.440 --> 0:27:56.280 be protecting. It's the industries because they don't buy much 0:27:56.320 --> 0:27:58.960 from us, but we buy a lot of diamonds from them. 0:27:59.160 --> 0:28:01.879 Understand the insane of that that he had a reciprocal 0:28:01.880 --> 0:28:05.800 tariff on Korea, a country with which we actually have 0:28:05.880 --> 0:28:10.160 a free trade agreement. So the word reciprocal was a lie. 0:28:10.400 --> 0:28:14.480 The level of the tariffs was unconscious, not only unconscionable 0:28:14.480 --> 0:28:18.320 and uneconomic, but unmoored from any sense of reality. And 0:28:19.119 --> 0:28:21.399 then that's what's currently on a pause. Okay, So that 0:28:21.480 --> 0:28:24.479 was literally the worst trade decision of my lifetime, he paused. 0:28:24.760 --> 0:28:26.640 The good thing about the president is if you thought 0:28:26.680 --> 0:28:28.200 that was the worst thing of your lifetime, just wait 0:28:28.240 --> 0:28:30.040 two weeks. And then we got one hundred and forty 0:28:30.040 --> 0:28:32.879 five percent tariff on China, which is among the top 0:28:33.000 --> 0:28:37.320 two worst trade decisions of my lifetime. That we got 0:28:37.320 --> 0:28:40.440 that back down to thirty percent, And then I am 0:28:40.480 --> 0:28:43.760 sure this is only the third worst trade decision of 0:28:43.800 --> 0:28:47.000 my lifetime, the fifty percent tariff on the European Union, 0:28:47.440 --> 0:28:50.400 which he then knocked back down to ten percent until 0:28:50.480 --> 0:28:55.040 July ninth. Right, what relief does several weeks of low 0:28:55.040 --> 0:28:58.040 word tariffs. But this is your point earlier, Molly, the 0:28:58.080 --> 0:29:00.080 average tariff right around the world is probably going to 0:29:00.120 --> 0:29:03.440 be about seventeen eighteen nineteen percent. The average tariff right 0:29:03.480 --> 0:29:07.080 for an industrialized country is two percent. The idea that 0:29:07.080 --> 0:29:11.160 Trump always backs down isn't quite right, right, because they're 0:29:11.200 --> 0:29:18.040 still terrible worst excesses. The unimaginably stupid he gets talked 0:29:18.040 --> 0:29:23.160 out off right, the merely profoundly mistaken and intensely damaging 0:29:23.600 --> 0:29:26.520 he sticks with. And that's where we're at. So, Molly, 0:29:26.680 --> 0:29:28.280 is you know I want to let everyone in on 0:29:28.320 --> 0:29:31.040 the joke, because apparently it's funny Molly's referring to the 0:29:31.040 --> 0:29:34.920 taco trade. Trump always chickens out, so one everyone likes 0:29:34.960 --> 0:29:38.480 tacos to The most recent chickening out was on a Tuesday, 0:29:38.680 --> 0:29:41.920 So this is all terrific. But notice that Trump doesn't 0:29:41.920 --> 0:29:46.480 always chicken out. He walked into the British negotiations and said, 0:29:46.480 --> 0:29:48.840 the tariff is ten percent, even though you buy more 0:29:48.840 --> 0:29:51.440 of our stuff than we buy of yours, and that 0:29:51.480 --> 0:29:54.760 ten tariff is one hundred percent stuck. And that's where 0:29:54.920 --> 0:29:57.320 we're still at very high tarot We're still at thirty 0:29:57.360 --> 0:29:59.720 percent with China, We're at ten percent with every other 0:29:59.720 --> 0:30:03.440 country around the world. Still this is an end higher 0:30:03.440 --> 0:30:07.520 in some industries. So this remains an enormous and intentionally 0:30:07.600 --> 0:30:10.719 damaging set of tariffs. That wasn't answering the question that 0:30:10.760 --> 0:30:13.280 was you picked up He always backtracks. Let's talk about 0:30:13.320 --> 0:30:16.880 that as sort as sometimes does a bit, but let's 0:30:16.880 --> 0:30:18.840 not overstate it because that makes it feel like there's 0:30:18.880 --> 0:30:22.360 no damage. There's a lot of damage. Second, you said, 0:30:22.760 --> 0:30:25.800 what does a good solution look like? This one's easy 0:30:26.000 --> 0:30:29.000 and I've only really just gotten my head around it 0:30:29.320 --> 0:30:31.840 because it's so simple. The right answer is for Congress 0:30:31.840 --> 0:30:34.760 to do its job. The Constitution gives the power of 0:30:34.800 --> 0:30:40.280 taris to Congress full stop. Past Congresses delegated authority emergency 0:30:40.320 --> 0:30:44.520 powers to the president, and the President declares everything an emergency. 0:30:44.600 --> 0:30:47.600 I'm incredibly hopeful, but I'm not a lawyer. I'm hopeful 0:30:47.680 --> 0:30:50.160 that at some point all of this will be ruled 0:30:50.200 --> 0:30:53.600 unconstitutional because in fact there's no emergency. But we don't 0:30:53.640 --> 0:30:56.880 need to wait for the courts. Congress stops all of 0:30:56.880 --> 0:31:01.200 this tomorrow if Congress wants to. So I want people 0:31:01.200 --> 0:31:03.800 to hold onto that the madness of the Trump administration 0:31:04.040 --> 0:31:08.160 is one hundred percent fully enabled by Congress. And if 0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:10.840 you don't like it, call your congressman, and if you're 0:31:10.880 --> 0:31:14.240 still unhappy, call him or her again, because this is 0:31:14.280 --> 0:31:18.640 the greatest abrogation of responsibility I've seen, and it's infuriating. 0:31:18.720 --> 0:31:21.920 So they can Why does Trump go with tariffs rather 0:31:21.920 --> 0:31:26.960 than other things? Because he can? Yeah, the enabler there. 0:31:27.320 --> 0:31:27.480 You know. 0:31:27.560 --> 0:31:30.080 He can't just do what he wants on fiscal policy. 0:31:30.160 --> 0:31:33.000 He can't on monetary policy, but in this he can, 0:31:33.640 --> 0:31:35.560 and that's why the damage is being done. They gave 0:31:35.640 --> 0:31:38.600 him the loaded gun and then they're surprised he's waving 0:31:38.640 --> 0:31:44.960 it around. That's what good looks like. Okay, what's actually 0:31:45.000 --> 0:31:49.360 going to happen? Oh no, I mean, as far as 0:31:49.480 --> 0:31:53.200 I can tell, we're in one big soap opera. And 0:31:53.280 --> 0:31:56.560 it's great because normally soap operas are about complicated emotions 0:31:56.960 --> 0:32:02.800 that economists like me don't really understand, things like betrayal, jealousy. 0:32:03.160 --> 0:32:06.880 But this one's all about trade deficits and tariffs. I mean, 0:32:06.920 --> 0:32:09.800 I think it's a fabulous soap opera, just a shitty 0:32:09.840 --> 0:32:10.760 economic policy. 0:32:12.080 --> 0:32:12.360 You know. 0:32:12.480 --> 0:32:15.080 The The analogy here is it's a totaler with the 0:32:15.080 --> 0:32:19.959 remote control justin Wolfs. They get bored, they thump at it, 0:32:20.720 --> 0:32:26.240 they change it, and that is American tariff policy justin Wolfers. 0:32:26.480 --> 0:32:28.040 Thank you, Thank you. 0:32:30.520 --> 0:32:36.040 Keith Compton Barr is the founder of Can't Win Victory Fund. 0:32:36.400 --> 0:32:39.120 Welcome to Fast Politics, Kate. 0:32:39.000 --> 0:32:41.760 Barr, Hi, Mollie, thank you for having me. I am 0:32:41.920 --> 0:32:42.640 so excited. 0:32:43.040 --> 0:32:45.600 Oh well, I'm excited to have you. I want you 0:32:45.640 --> 0:32:48.560 to talk about how you got into this. I think 0:32:48.560 --> 0:32:51.560 of you as a kind of your sort of how 0:32:51.600 --> 0:32:53.160 you can win pundon. 0:32:53.000 --> 0:32:56.360 Right a little bit. I'm a huge fan of losing 0:32:56.760 --> 0:32:58.400 actual Oh. 0:32:58.120 --> 0:33:00.600 So great, start with that that I think tracks with 0:33:00.680 --> 0:33:05.080 their origin story, right, yes, so get us going there. 0:33:05.360 --> 0:33:08.560 So, like most good things in life, all of this 0:33:08.720 --> 0:33:12.080 started when I was drinking. I was standing in line 0:33:12.120 --> 0:33:14.520 for a glass of wine at like a local festival 0:33:14.600 --> 0:33:18.720 we have in my tiny town, and someone said, hey, Kate, 0:33:18.920 --> 0:33:20.760 you want to run for state Senate. And it was 0:33:20.800 --> 0:33:24.200 a joke because our state Senate maps had just come 0:33:24.200 --> 0:33:26.960 out and they were horribly jerrymandered in our state senate 0:33:26.960 --> 0:33:29.800 district was a real loser, and we kind of joked 0:33:29.800 --> 0:33:33.680 around about what might happen to run a campaign that 0:33:33.800 --> 0:33:37.800 was just radically transparent about what a total loss it 0:33:37.840 --> 0:33:40.920 would be. And my background is in behavioral science and 0:33:40.960 --> 0:33:44.560 in persuasive communication, and I couldn't let go of the 0:33:44.640 --> 0:33:49.200 idea about using this as a way to bring jerrymandering 0:33:49.320 --> 0:33:52.600 down to like real people level, get it out of 0:33:52.640 --> 0:33:57.000 the political science sphere and into why should a voter 0:33:57.240 --> 0:33:59.800 give a shit about their voting map? And so when 0:33:59.800 --> 0:34:03.200 I was slightly more sober, frankly, it still seemed like 0:34:03.240 --> 0:34:06.200 a good idea. And then my friend, who is now 0:34:06.200 --> 0:34:08.480 a member of the Can't Win Victory Fund, we were 0:34:08.600 --> 0:34:11.200 talking about it and she said the phrase clear eyes 0:34:11.239 --> 0:34:14.040 fullhearts can't win, and I was just like, that has 0:34:14.080 --> 0:34:15.120 to exist in the world. 0:34:15.200 --> 0:34:17.640 I guess we are doing this and here we are. 0:34:18.800 --> 0:34:20.359 So tell me what happened when you ran. 0:34:20.800 --> 0:34:21.120 Yeah. 0:34:21.160 --> 0:34:25.719 So I filed for office and announced my loss the 0:34:25.800 --> 0:34:29.319 same day. I actually honestly think I could be kind 0:34:29.400 --> 0:34:32.440 of an awesome candidate and a real district. 0:34:32.760 --> 0:34:35.040 You know, I am a public school kid. 0:34:35.120 --> 0:34:38.480 I went to University of North Carolina a couple of times. 0:34:38.719 --> 0:34:42.400 I've been on town planning boards and nonprofit boards, and 0:34:42.880 --> 0:34:45.759 I have like kids, I'm pto president, Like, there's a 0:34:45.760 --> 0:34:49.600 lot of stuff I would want and my representative or senator. 0:34:50.080 --> 0:34:52.920 And the campaign was to make the point that no 0:34:53.000 --> 0:34:56.080 matter who you are as a candidate, your fate is 0:34:56.120 --> 0:34:59.319 determined by how the math lines are drawn, and that 0:34:59.320 --> 0:35:03.560 that's fundamental problem in our democracy. So I ran the 0:35:03.560 --> 0:35:06.960 whole thing as a protest against jerrymandering. People call me 0:35:07.040 --> 0:35:09.960 in the streets still Kate bar can't win, and all 0:35:10.000 --> 0:35:13.239 of our shirt said things like loser, and it caught on. 0:35:13.840 --> 0:35:16.680 We were not expecting that. I expected to go right 0:35:16.719 --> 0:35:19.200 back to my day job after November fifth. I mean 0:35:19.239 --> 0:35:21.320 I also expected a president Harris. 0:35:21.360 --> 0:35:22.759 So you know what do I know. 0:35:23.239 --> 0:35:26.880 Yeah, alas falling into that fantasy for a moment, but 0:35:27.560 --> 0:35:29.960 it like built and built. And then there was a 0:35:30.000 --> 0:35:34.480 story that came out in the Washington Post in September, 0:35:34.560 --> 0:35:37.120 and then I spent the next three weeks on like 0:35:37.239 --> 0:35:41.000 national and international news, and we thought, wow, there's really 0:35:41.040 --> 0:35:43.719 something here in this message. It's like cutting through during 0:35:43.719 --> 0:35:49.120 a presidential election cycle, and we started thinking about what 0:35:49.160 --> 0:35:51.720 it might look like to do this on a larger scale. 0:35:52.320 --> 0:35:56.840 So November fifth, I lost, as predicted, but a couple 0:35:56.840 --> 0:36:01.840 of important things also happened in my district. The bulk 0:36:01.880 --> 0:36:04.000 of the district is made up by this one county, 0:36:04.040 --> 0:36:06.480 Ayerdell County, and it is super red and it has 0:36:06.520 --> 0:36:09.080 been read for a really long time, but it got 0:36:09.360 --> 0:36:12.120 bluer and it was one of only eight counties in 0:36:12.160 --> 0:36:16.120 our whole hundred county state that got bluer last cycle, 0:36:16.640 --> 0:36:18.879 and that felt meaningful. You know, it's hard to know 0:36:18.920 --> 0:36:22.400 what to attribute that to, but having a state Senate 0:36:22.480 --> 0:36:26.400 candidate who like actually showed up for the voters in 0:36:26.440 --> 0:36:30.719 that area couldn't hurt. We also saw that so my 0:36:30.840 --> 0:36:36.239 district overlapped with a hyper competitive state house district, and 0:36:36.400 --> 0:36:40.200 the candidate Beth Helfrich in that district won pretty handily, 0:36:40.239 --> 0:36:45.799 frankly and broke the state House super majority, and all 0:36:45.840 --> 0:36:49.480 credit to Beth for that, but helpful to have two 0:36:49.719 --> 0:36:52.600 candidates who were actually out knocking doors on the ballot. 0:36:52.960 --> 0:36:55.399 So it was like, let's see what could happen if 0:36:55.440 --> 0:36:57.840 we grow this and try to make a path for 0:36:57.960 --> 0:37:02.160 more people in these unwinnable seats to run, especially because 0:37:02.560 --> 0:37:06.919 like we've been ignoring voters in those places for far 0:37:06.960 --> 0:37:10.560 too long because the seats are unwinnable. And so maybe 0:37:10.600 --> 0:37:13.200 you get a name on the ballot and it's like 0:37:13.200 --> 0:37:15.240 one hundred and fifty out of one hundred and seventy 0:37:15.280 --> 0:37:18.600 districts in our state qualify as unwinnable, and so that's 0:37:18.640 --> 0:37:21.880 one hundred and fifty districts worth of people who aren't 0:37:22.280 --> 0:37:25.839 being heard, who aren't having local politicians show up for them, 0:37:26.480 --> 0:37:29.479 and who fundamentally like don't have real representation and don't 0:37:29.480 --> 0:37:32.680 have a real way to hold their leaders accountable. 0:37:32.960 --> 0:37:37.319 Here's my hottest take, and again this comes from a 0:37:37.360 --> 0:37:40.880 woman called Demand Aliment, who I'm sure you know, which 0:37:40.920 --> 0:37:43.279 is that if you run a candidate and I guess 0:37:43.360 --> 0:37:45.120 this is what you were saying too, if you run 0:37:45.160 --> 0:37:47.399 a candidate, even if you lose, you win. 0:37:47.960 --> 0:37:51.120 Absolutely. I think it matters how you run. And I 0:37:51.160 --> 0:37:53.800 heard when Amanda was on she's talking a lot about 0:37:53.880 --> 0:38:00.239 representation and the importance of having people who actually like 0:38:00.560 --> 0:38:07.000 represent the district therein and the lack that and our legislatures. 0:38:06.239 --> 0:38:08.560 At all levels of government. I think if you have 0:38:08.680 --> 0:38:10.040 a candidate really. 0:38:09.760 --> 0:38:13.760 Show up for voters and like, do the candidate things 0:38:13.800 --> 0:38:16.680 like kiss the babies and go to the fairs and 0:38:16.760 --> 0:38:20.280 knock on the doors, that is meaningful to people. 0:38:20.680 --> 0:38:22.839 I also think the Democratic. 0:38:22.280 --> 0:38:25.400 Party right now has a bit of a trust problem 0:38:25.800 --> 0:38:28.480 where you know, like you've got Trump out there saying 0:38:28.600 --> 0:38:31.640 whatever the fuck comes into his mind, but it seems 0:38:31.680 --> 0:38:35.680 really authentic and honest because it feels unfiltered, and then 0:38:35.760 --> 0:38:39.520 Democrats seem really scripted, not all of them obviously. 0:38:39.520 --> 0:38:43.319 Yes, one hundred, yes, yes, yes, Okay, So let's talk 0:38:43.400 --> 0:38:46.960 about this because I absolutely think this is true. Consultants, 0:38:47.280 --> 0:38:52.920 all consultants, the consultant class has made Democrats way too 0:38:53.440 --> 0:38:58.120 afraid of their own shadows and unwilling to say personal stuff. 0:38:58.280 --> 0:38:59.239 Discuss yep. 0:38:59.480 --> 0:39:02.040 And it's a amazing when you knock on somebody's door 0:39:02.520 --> 0:39:05.279 and you are radically honest with them, and you're like, 0:39:05.400 --> 0:39:08.080 I am running for state Senate and I am going 0:39:08.120 --> 0:39:11.040 to lose. As soon as you say that, your credibility 0:39:11.080 --> 0:39:14.200 with that person increases like one hundred percent, and the 0:39:14.239 --> 0:39:17.600 thing you say next is so much more meaningful. So 0:39:17.800 --> 0:39:21.360 I used that to basically knock doors for Alison Riggs. 0:39:21.400 --> 0:39:23.640 I mean, I was knocking doors as a candidate, but 0:39:23.719 --> 0:39:25.680 I was talking about me at the doors. I was 0:39:25.719 --> 0:39:30.080 talking about Justice Riggs. Because the whole point is I'm 0:39:30.080 --> 0:39:33.640 going to lose because our maps are drawn unfairly so 0:39:33.680 --> 0:39:36.680 that politicians can preserve their power. If you want that 0:39:36.800 --> 0:39:39.400 to be different, you have to vote for Justice Riggs. 0:39:39.719 --> 0:39:42.200 That'll flip for twenty twenty six and it'll be If 0:39:42.200 --> 0:39:44.279 you want that to be different, you have to vote 0:39:44.280 --> 0:39:47.880 for Justice Earls. And in a state like out especially 0:39:48.320 --> 0:39:50.640 where I mean we just saw Justice Riggs but win 0:39:50.760 --> 0:39:53.640 by seven hundred and thirty four votes, like all of 0:39:53.719 --> 0:39:54.400 that matters. 0:39:54.960 --> 0:39:58.600 Yeah, exactly, And I mean I think that's such an 0:39:58.680 --> 0:40:03.200 important point. There is a kind of trust situation, and 0:40:03.280 --> 0:40:08.120 I do think part of what people liked about Trump, right, 0:40:08.280 --> 0:40:11.120 and again I'm not here on Nobody in this podcast 0:40:11.200 --> 0:40:13.960 is saying Trump is good in any elation to perform, 0:40:14.280 --> 0:40:17.480 but the sort of fake honesty, the kind of feeling 0:40:17.560 --> 0:40:20.439 that you weren't just sitting there or hearing somebody read 0:40:20.440 --> 0:40:21.480 a white paper. 0:40:21.840 --> 0:40:23.200 Yes, or a teleprompter. 0:40:23.560 --> 0:40:27.000 And when you know you're going to lose, a couple 0:40:27.000 --> 0:40:30.879 of important things happen. One is that consultants don't care 0:40:30.920 --> 0:40:33.919 about you, and so they go along. And the other 0:40:34.000 --> 0:40:36.719 thing is you actually can't screw it up, so you 0:40:36.760 --> 0:40:40.680 can say anything at all. And so I really see 0:40:40.680 --> 0:40:45.400 these districts as opportunities for us to innovate our playbook, 0:40:45.800 --> 0:40:48.600 because we can try anything. You're going to lose anyway, 0:40:49.000 --> 0:40:52.640 So try some wacky shit and let's see what happens. 0:40:52.680 --> 0:40:56.120 Maybe we learn something that helps us win somewhere else. 0:40:56.719 --> 0:40:58.120 At minimum, you. 0:40:58.080 --> 0:41:02.000 Have candidates who are running as their like authentic selves, 0:41:02.320 --> 0:41:04.800 who are ready when we get fair maps in twenty thirty, 0:41:04.800 --> 0:41:09.439 who have anson then who can run again to actually win, 0:41:09.640 --> 0:41:12.640 but they haven't like wrecked their chances by trying to 0:41:12.680 --> 0:41:15.360 tell people they can win for two or three ciples 0:41:15.360 --> 0:41:18.560 when obviously they couldn't. Like voters aren't dumb. They in 0:41:18.640 --> 0:41:22.160 these communities, they know who's gonna win in these elections 0:41:22.160 --> 0:41:25.000 because they've been living that reality for so long. Most 0:41:25.080 --> 0:41:27.399 of them have never had a politician come to their door. 0:41:27.719 --> 0:41:31.160 And so if we show up for them consistently and 0:41:31.239 --> 0:41:33.839 we are honest and authentic in how we do it, 0:41:33.880 --> 0:41:37.200 I think we can make some pretty incredible inroads in 0:41:37.280 --> 0:41:40.799 places that we just haven't. Also, it's cheap, Like my 0:41:40.920 --> 0:41:45.520 Comson vote was like a dollar forty. That's insanely cheap, 0:41:45.719 --> 0:41:48.680 and I didn't even need all that because no, you know, 0:41:49.239 --> 0:41:53.360 there's just it's so easy to occupy the airspace because 0:41:53.360 --> 0:41:54.880 there's no one competing for it. 0:41:55.360 --> 0:41:55.560 Right. 0:41:56.040 --> 0:41:59.160 It's not those It's not like one of those tiny 0:41:59.600 --> 0:42:03.439 district where everybody is stuck, you know, a place where 0:42:03.480 --> 0:42:05.960 the media market gets expensive despite the fact. 0:42:05.840 --> 0:42:06.359 That it's small. 0:42:06.520 --> 0:42:09.800 I wonder if you could sort of talk us through 0:42:10.120 --> 0:42:14.360 a case of sort of where you think the places 0:42:14.520 --> 0:42:18.719 are where Democrats should be running people that they're not. 0:42:19.480 --> 0:42:24.000 Yeah, so I think we should be running people anywhere 0:42:24.040 --> 0:42:29.719 we can get a great community candidate, So someone who 0:42:30.120 --> 0:42:34.799 is already like a pillar of the community, ministers, like 0:42:34.880 --> 0:42:38.200 Scout leaders, PTO parents, that kind of thing. In North 0:42:38.200 --> 0:42:43.120 Carolina last cycle, we ran Democrats in one hundred and 0:42:43.160 --> 0:42:47.120 sixty eight out of one hundred and seventy state legislative seats. 0:42:47.440 --> 0:42:49.799 So we did a good job of running people, but 0:42:50.239 --> 0:42:52.920 about a third of those folks were only names on 0:42:52.960 --> 0:42:56.680 the ballot, and I truly don't know if that is 0:42:57.080 --> 0:43:00.560 as useful as the effort it takes to recruit for 0:43:00.640 --> 0:43:03.200 those spots. But if you have someone who's willing to run, 0:43:03.239 --> 0:43:06.319 we should run absolutely everywhere. And I'm looking at like 0:43:06.400 --> 0:43:09.279 South Carolina is another one where we need to be 0:43:09.440 --> 0:43:13.680 doing this. Utah, Florida. I mean, they're thirteen. According to 0:43:13.760 --> 0:43:18.960 the Princeton Jerrymandering Project, there are thirteen states that fail 0:43:19.520 --> 0:43:23.160 their jerrymandering test, and frankly, three of those are Democratic 0:43:23.320 --> 0:43:26.080 jerry manders. So both parties do it, and it's like 0:43:26.120 --> 0:43:28.840 bullshit on both counts. And we need to be showing 0:43:28.960 --> 0:43:34.080 up in all of those R plus fifteen districts with 0:43:34.239 --> 0:43:37.279 kick ass candidates who can just say I'm not going 0:43:37.360 --> 0:43:40.560 to win. I can't win. The lines are drawn so 0:43:40.640 --> 0:43:43.480 that I can't win, and that actually makes it easier 0:43:43.520 --> 0:43:46.120 for them to run because it's hard to come out 0:43:46.200 --> 0:43:49.439 as a Democrat in a super red place. But when 0:43:49.480 --> 0:43:51.960 you come out saying like I'm fighting for the principle 0:43:52.000 --> 0:43:55.319 of our democracy. I got so many maga handshakes. I 0:43:55.360 --> 0:43:58.160 had to like bathe and hand sanitizer while I was 0:43:58.239 --> 0:44:02.040 doing this, because they really get it. Everybody gets it 0:44:02.120 --> 0:44:05.480 that it's about democracy, not trying to be like, you know, 0:44:05.960 --> 0:44:09.000 take down their incumbent who has been there forever. You're 0:44:09.080 --> 0:44:11.799 running against a system, and it just makes the path 0:44:11.840 --> 0:44:14.080 a lot easier. You also don't have to fundraise a 0:44:14.160 --> 0:44:17.040 ton and you can say literally anything you want, which 0:44:17.080 --> 0:44:17.879 feels really good. 0:44:18.400 --> 0:44:22.880 Like the idea here is that you should engage. So 0:44:23.040 --> 0:44:26.520 I used to think that you shouldn't engage. 0:44:26.600 --> 0:44:28.160 This is we can just let's just. 0:44:28.120 --> 0:44:28.759 Talk about me. 0:44:29.000 --> 0:44:31.040 I would like to thank you. 0:44:31.000 --> 0:44:33.440 Since I'm so used to talking about myself at this moment. 0:44:33.560 --> 0:44:36.160 I used to think you shouldn't go on spaces, you know, 0:44:36.320 --> 0:44:40.480 like you shouldn't go on Bill Maher or Joe Rogan, 0:44:40.640 --> 0:44:43.799 that you should just only go to places where you 0:44:44.160 --> 0:44:47.440 agree with them or where you feel that they don't 0:44:47.600 --> 0:44:52.240 espouse views you don't agree with or like or find 0:44:52.280 --> 0:44:55.799 objectionable for any number of reasons, real or imagined. And 0:44:55.880 --> 0:44:58.680 I have completely changed my tune on this. I now 0:44:58.760 --> 0:45:02.520 think you should go everywhere and engage everyone. And part 0:45:02.560 --> 0:45:05.840 of that is because like when you sit down with 0:45:05.960 --> 0:45:10.120 someone who is maga and I have actually because I 0:45:10.200 --> 0:45:11.520 have some friends who are. 0:45:11.400 --> 0:45:13.319 Actually real die in the world. 0:45:13.400 --> 0:45:15.960 You know people who think like Trump is shaking things up, 0:45:16.239 --> 0:45:18.080 and they are people. 0:45:18.360 --> 0:45:19.680 Yeah, like they may. 0:45:19.520 --> 0:45:23.040 Be wrong on any number of things, but they are people. 0:45:23.160 --> 0:45:25.200 And I think what you're talking about with the jerrymanderin 0:45:25.320 --> 0:45:26.960 is think the same phenomenon. 0:45:27.480 --> 0:45:30.720 Yes, we need to be talking to each other, whether 0:45:30.760 --> 0:45:35.160 it's you know, in real life or digitally human to human. 0:45:35.520 --> 0:45:39.440 And I spent a lot of my career doing tailored communications, 0:45:39.480 --> 0:45:41.759 which means, you know, maybe I need to get out 0:45:41.760 --> 0:45:44.560 a message to someone or to a group of people 0:45:44.760 --> 0:45:48.279 about why quitting smoking would be good. My background is 0:45:48.320 --> 0:45:50.560 public health. Sorry to all the people who love smoking 0:45:50.560 --> 0:45:55.440 in the world. And if you're not a pregnant person, 0:45:55.560 --> 0:45:58.520 you don't need to hear about how cigarettes can harm 0:45:58.560 --> 0:46:02.600 a fetus. And so we could develop algorithms that would 0:46:02.640 --> 0:46:07.239 put content together like legos, so that each person would 0:46:07.280 --> 0:46:10.799 see the content that was relevant to them, presented in 0:46:10.840 --> 0:46:13.080 a way that we thought would be most likely to 0:46:13.120 --> 0:46:17.479 reach them. And we see that happening in the way 0:46:17.640 --> 0:46:22.200 like in politics, you see people segmenting themselves like self segmenting, 0:46:22.280 --> 0:46:25.400 self tailoring their content. And so if you only go 0:46:25.480 --> 0:46:28.560 the places where people already agree with you, and that 0:46:28.680 --> 0:46:31.839 includes running for office, if you're only running in districts 0:46:32.000 --> 0:46:35.080 where you think you can win or know you can win, 0:46:35.520 --> 0:46:38.040 you never grow. And so one of the fun things 0:46:38.080 --> 0:46:41.200 that we do as we're raising money is it's a 0:46:41.280 --> 0:46:43.719 very long story, but we're building AI. 0:46:43.440 --> 0:46:45.680 Models that think like target voting groups. 0:46:45.960 --> 0:46:49.720 And the first step in that is generating a huge 0:46:49.880 --> 0:46:52.920 range of messages that we might show to that target 0:46:53.000 --> 0:46:55.360 voting group. And so we go to people's houses and 0:46:55.400 --> 0:46:59.200 they have parties, and we put up an example persona 0:46:59.239 --> 0:47:01.759 of someone who voted for Trump that we would like 0:47:01.840 --> 0:47:05.399 to convince to vote for Democrats in the future, and 0:47:06.040 --> 0:47:08.799 the folks in that room work together to try to 0:47:08.840 --> 0:47:11.640 come up with messages that they think would be effective 0:47:11.680 --> 0:47:14.719 for that person. And you know what, message is never effective? 0:47:15.160 --> 0:47:18.920 I told you so, right. It's never effective to say, 0:47:19.000 --> 0:47:21.640 are you sorry now? And so we. 0:47:21.640 --> 0:47:25.560 Start to build some empathy in the room for why 0:47:25.640 --> 0:47:29.520 someone might have made that choice, and we generate this giant, 0:47:29.800 --> 0:47:33.560 like unique list of messages that we can then go 0:47:33.680 --> 0:47:36.319 test and use to train our AI models so that 0:47:36.400 --> 0:47:41.080 in the future we can predict message performance less expensively 0:47:41.120 --> 0:47:43.680 and more quickly. But it's also just like an interview 0:47:44.040 --> 0:47:45.560 for all, So I do. 0:47:45.680 --> 0:47:47.799 That i'd be doing anything with AI. 0:47:48.120 --> 0:47:50.719 AI can't make the messages for what it's worth if 0:47:50.760 --> 0:47:53.120 you ask it to make. It looks like some North 0:47:53.200 --> 0:47:56.520 Korea would put out. I mean maybe that I don't know, 0:47:56.560 --> 0:47:58.359 maybe we got to test some of that shit too, 0:47:58.440 --> 0:48:01.760 because here we go down that it's pretty slope, right. 0:48:01.640 --> 0:48:06.120 But the point I think is that there is quite 0:48:06.200 --> 0:48:11.840 a lot of opportunity here for a number of getting 0:48:12.000 --> 0:48:14.239 to people you might otherwise not get to. 0:48:14.520 --> 0:48:19.200 Yeah, and to learn how to best reach them. Like 0:48:19.320 --> 0:48:21.440 I wake up in the nighttime and think, like, what 0:48:21.560 --> 0:48:24.640 if we had said big money for small business instead 0:48:24.640 --> 0:48:26.680 of opportunity economy. 0:48:26.680 --> 0:48:28.319 Right, that would have been good. 0:48:28.600 --> 0:48:30.279 I mean I probably wouldn't have done it. 0:48:30.400 --> 0:48:33.800 But you know, no, tax on tips worked really well 0:48:33.880 --> 0:48:35.000 for the Republicans. 0:48:35.360 --> 0:48:38.120 Yeah, and they're definitely not going to do that. 0:48:38.560 --> 0:48:42.319 No hate bar. Thanks for coming on. 0:48:42.680 --> 0:48:44.400 Mollie john Fast, thanks for having me. 0:48:46.840 --> 0:48:47.879 No more. 0:48:48.560 --> 0:48:55.040 Second, Jesse Cannon Smiley, we covered a report that said 0:48:55.400 --> 0:48:59.880 that Pambondi is just a actor doing the spokesman job, 0:49:00.239 --> 0:49:03.239 and that Steven Miller is running the ship on many, 0:49:03.280 --> 0:49:07.000 many things. And now this latest report from Axios is 0:49:07.040 --> 0:49:12.080 that Stephen Miller has told, in stern words to Christy 0:49:12.200 --> 0:49:14.920 nom another person who's been accused of kaya just being 0:49:14.920 --> 0:49:17.680 a spokesperson, that she better get to arrest and a 0:49:17.719 --> 0:49:20.640 lot more people because he ain't having all these immigrants 0:49:20.719 --> 0:49:23.000 running around the country causing chaos. 0:49:23.280 --> 0:49:25.840 Look, first of all, there aren't even that many people 0:49:25.920 --> 0:49:26.960 coming here anymore. 0:49:27.640 --> 0:49:29.160 This is all to scare people. 0:49:29.239 --> 0:49:33.200 This is all to make everyone unhappy, un scared, And 0:49:33.360 --> 0:49:36.279 all Stephen Miller ever wanted to do was arrest immigrants. 0:49:36.360 --> 0:49:38.759 This has nothing to do with reality. This is just 0:49:38.920 --> 0:49:39.600 who he is. 0:49:39.960 --> 0:49:44.360 Ice is already completely out of control, disappearing grad students, 0:49:44.760 --> 0:49:49.560 Ignore these people, don't do this. Let's just be responsible 0:49:49.760 --> 0:49:53.760 and good and not do this kind of bullshit because 0:49:53.800 --> 0:49:54.600 it's terrible. 0:49:55.080 --> 0:49:57.880 People are being hurt and hated. 0:49:58.760 --> 0:49:59.719 That's it for. 0:49:59.640 --> 0:50:05.560 This episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, 0:50:05.760 --> 0:50:10.239 Thursday and Saturday to hear the best minds and politics 0:50:10.320 --> 0:50:14.600 make sense of all this chaos. If you enjoy this podcast, 0:50:14.960 --> 0:50:18.400 please send it to a friend and keep the conversation going. 0:50:18.840 --> 0:50:20.000 Thanks for listening.