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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game Jewish prow.

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Speaker 2: Read enough they're running a game so smooth, so sweet

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Speaker 2: Clendid sixteen, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 2: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop with mind of buddy, and

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Speaker 2: that's why you see you as beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 4: Most dangerous a mount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody pictionable.

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Speaker 2: Shot Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 5: The love is left to.

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Speaker 2: One of the wide eyed, drilled bibused.

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Speaker 3: How old earth did that happened?

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Speaker 1: Hello?

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Speaker 4: Everyone, Welcome back to Wondergul, the soccer betting podcast from

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Speaker 4: the Action Network. My name is Michael leeb Up, joining

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Speaker 4: me in just a moment to break down this week's

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Speaker 4: upcoming Premier League slate, the two FA Cup semi finals,

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Speaker 4: and then are weekly jaunt through Europe Bundesliga, La Liga,

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Speaker 4: Siria Legal. Will be my friends and colleagues, Noted Islander fans,

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Speaker 4: noted New York Islander fans, absolutely, Anthony Dubundo and BJ Cunningham.

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Speaker 3: I've been I've been brainwashed.

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Speaker 4: He's been brainwashed. But before I bring in these two

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Speaker 4: brainwashed gentlemen. A reminder, Wonder Goal is proudly presented by

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Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia. In the US gambling problem,

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Speaker 4: please call or text one eight hundred Gambler. Anthony and

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Speaker 4: BJ will start with the FA Cup semi finals. They

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Speaker 4: include Manchester City versus Sheffield United at Brighton and Manchester United,

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Speaker 4: so we have the potential for a Manchester derby to

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Speaker 4: wrap this competition up. We'll start City in Sheffield United

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Speaker 4: because I think this one has less appeal as at

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Speaker 4: betting match. City's minus seven hundred, the Blades they're fourteen

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Speaker 4: to one, and the Drugs plus seven fifty. Anthony, what

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Speaker 4: are your thoughts here? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 5: Sheffield United has been the second best defense in the

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Speaker 5: Championship by most XG models. They have an above average

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Speaker 5: defense that even if you projected them into the Premier League,

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Speaker 5: they would be better than four of the defenses that

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Speaker 5: are currently in the league. So that is an encouraging

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Speaker 5: sign for their ability to at least slow down Manchester City.

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Speaker 5: I know it's very hard to do. We just saw

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Speaker 5: what City torched Lester in about twenty minutes and then

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Speaker 5: took their foot off the gas. But you do wonder

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Speaker 5: about the spot potentially for City with Arsenal looming in

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Speaker 5: the league on Wednesday, and I do expect Holland to

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Speaker 5: start like I don't think they're going to rotate necessarily,

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Speaker 5: but could see him get taken off after sixty five

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Speaker 5: to seventy minutes. Same with Debrona. We saw a City

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Speaker 5: employ that strategy against Leicester on Saturday and I thought

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Speaker 5: it was interesting from Guardiola, it's different from what Klopp

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Speaker 5: was doing last year. I thought the biggest mistake was

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Speaker 5: that Klop didn't really rotate enough down the stretch run

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Speaker 5: and it hurt them.

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Speaker 2: No.

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Speaker 5: Granted, they weren't in as good of a position in

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Speaker 5: the in the prem but I think that you could

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Speaker 5: see a City struggle here. Look, I'm tired of pricing

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Speaker 5: this City attack to regrets and saying that they're overvalued,

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Speaker 5: but they are again. Holland seems to have broken the

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Speaker 5: xgu regression that I used, but it's still true and

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Speaker 5: the defense remains underrated. I think I think it's gonna

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Speaker 5: be very hard for Sheffield to create much of anything

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Speaker 5: in this match. Their attack is pretty mediocre by Championship standards.

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Speaker 5: They've gotten through with their defense and so I think

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Speaker 5: that this is going to be a low scoring affair

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Speaker 5: that City wins two or three nothing. I looked on

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Speaker 5: under three and a half minus one oh five with

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Speaker 5: BJ Yeah.

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Speaker 1: It's so it's really unfair for Sheffield because two of

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Speaker 1: their best midfielders, James mctee and Tommy Doyle, they're on

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Speaker 1: Cities books, so they can't play because they can't face

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Speaker 1: their parent clubs. So that really hampers Sheffield United's midfield.

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Speaker 1: But you know, this is the you know, obviously Sheffield

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Speaker 1: United was in the Premier League two years ago. They're

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Speaker 1: under one of their assistant coaches during that time frame.

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Speaker 1: He's now become the manager. So they're still playing their

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Speaker 1: three to five to two structure and they can be

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Speaker 1: very well set up out of possession, and even though

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Speaker 1: they're in second place in the Championship, they are one

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Speaker 1: of the more direct teams in the Second Division, and

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Speaker 1: I mean, listen City.

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Speaker 3: I know City.

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Speaker 1: They just beat Burnley six nothing, who's been the best

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Speaker 1: team in the Championship and a team I'm really looking

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Speaker 1: forward to fading once they get to the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: But Burnley is a team that is not like it

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Speaker 1: was under Sean Deitch. They are much more possession based

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Speaker 1: type team and they haven't really had to face a

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Speaker 1: ton of teams that hold possession the way that City does,

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Speaker 1: so they were not able to play under that type

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Speaker 1: of st structure. Now Sheffield United has the type of

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Speaker 1: structure to sit deep and counterattack.

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Speaker 3: That's what they've done all season the Championship. And to

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Speaker 3: your point, Anthony, so.

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Speaker 1: Projecting teams coming up from the Championship to the Premier

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Speaker 1: League see about an eighty three percent decrease in they're

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Speaker 1: expected goal differential. So Sheffield United is at plus point

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Speaker 1: five to five right now. So I would project them

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Speaker 1: around a Everton or a Nottingham Forest right now in.

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Speaker 3: The Premier League.

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Speaker 1: Essentially is the comparison that I would go to. So

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Speaker 1: I agree with Anthony. I think that Sheffield United has

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Speaker 1: set up the way they set up tactically is going

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Speaker 1: to be able to play five at the back, close

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Speaker 1: off the middle of the pitch and defend for their lives.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't really see them doing much going forward,

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Speaker 1: especially because McAtee and Doyle are so good at making late.

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Speaker 3: Runs into the box.

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Speaker 1: If you've watched any other FA Cup matches, those are

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Speaker 1: the guys that have been scoring a majority of the goals.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I agree with Anthony under three and a

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Speaker 1: half at minus one oh five and let's just hope

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Speaker 1: if he doesn't win four.

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Speaker 4: Nothing Brighton and Manchester United, then this one's on Sunday morning,

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Speaker 4: the City Sheffield games eleven forty am. This one eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: These games are taking place at Wembley. Brain's plus one forty.

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Speaker 4: They're the favorite on the neutral field deservingly. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 4: but it's interesting, no, and yes, I think you know,

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Speaker 4: there's been a lot of crazy things that have happened

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Speaker 4: over the course of a season, which is funny because

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Speaker 4: you know, we're in the business of trying our best

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Speaker 4: to give out predictions and project things. And if we

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Speaker 4: did our season preview in August and I came on

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Speaker 4: here and said Roy Hodgson will be back coaching Crystal

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Speaker 4: Palace Frank Lampard will be back in the dugout of

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Speaker 4: Chelsea and Brighton would be a neutral field favorite over

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Speaker 4: Manchester United in the FA Cup semi final, but Grandpotter

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Speaker 4: wouldn't be managing them. Which of those would be the

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Speaker 4: craziest thing. I don't really know. It all be crazy, yeah,

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Speaker 4: but yeah, that's where we're at. That's where we live

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Speaker 4: at Brighton plus one forty and you two think that

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Speaker 4: it's Seagulls are nothing BJ absolutely.

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Speaker 1: I mean, here's the thing is, we don't really know

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Speaker 1: the status of Marcus Rashford right now. We're recording this

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday afternoon. The update is that he might return

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Speaker 1: for their match against Sevilla on Thursday, so we don't know.

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Speaker 1: But I mean United has not been good against the

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Speaker 1: top half of the table away from Old Trafford this season.

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Speaker 3: If you take into account, like.

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Speaker 1: The League Cup final against Newcastle on a neutral field

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Speaker 1: and all their matches away from home, they have a

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Speaker 1: minus eight point two expect a goal differential away from

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Speaker 1: Old Trafford against the top half of the table, which

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Speaker 1: is not good. Now, Brighton sets up very very aggressively

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Speaker 1: here and you know, United's not the best team pressing

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Speaker 1: from the front line. They're likely probably gonna sit a

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Speaker 1: little deeper because obviously Brighton wants you to trying to

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Speaker 1: bait you into pressing so they can play right through

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Speaker 1: the middle of the pitch. But I have a major

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Speaker 1: questions about United's ability to defend in wide spaces with

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Speaker 1: Metoma in March, I think they're gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: have field days against Wan Besaka or Diego Dalo or

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Speaker 1: Luke Shaw, whoever, whatever combination that United decides to put

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Speaker 1: out there. And Lessandra Martinez is still hurt, verone still out,

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Speaker 1: so that leaves United with Harry McGuire at the back again.

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Speaker 1: And listen, I understand United and created three and a

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Speaker 1: half expected goals against Nottingham Forest, but it's just a

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Speaker 1: completely different opponent. Brighton's going to be the one controlling

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Speaker 1: of the majority of the possession They're unit. It's gonna

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Speaker 1: be one defending in their own half for a majority

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Speaker 1: of the match. And something I know Anthony you know,

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Speaker 1: has tweeted about and we've talked about as well, is

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Speaker 1: that Brighton is plus four fifty to win the FA

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Speaker 1: Cup and United is sitting above them in terms of

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Speaker 1: the future odds but Brighton is a favorite to go

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Speaker 1: through here, so that's just a complete miss price because

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Speaker 1: of the Booksy're telling you is that United has a

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Speaker 1: better chance to beat City than Brighton does to beat City,

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Speaker 1: which is just absolutely not the case. So I like

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Speaker 1: Brighton here at plus one forty. I project them at

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Speaker 1: plus one twenty five on a neutral field, and I

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Speaker 1: also like Brighton at plus four to fifty to win

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Speaker 1: the FA Cup.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean Luke Shaw might be out as well,

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Speaker 5: he's questionable. The injury list is significant for Man United,

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Speaker 5: so I'm a little worried about them going to Seville

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Speaker 5: on Thursday. And I think the biggest problem could be

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Speaker 5: that Brighton is going to press and they're going to

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Speaker 5: really do a job on the center backs here and

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Speaker 5: we're used to, you know, when you have Martinez and

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Speaker 5: Varan who are pretty good ball carriers and possessors, and

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Speaker 5: even Maguire's pretty good on the ball. That's a big

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Speaker 5: difference compared to Vicka Lindeloff, who is gonna expect it

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Speaker 5: to start in this match on Sunday, And I think

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Speaker 5: that's going to be the biggest weak link for Man United,

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Speaker 5: that in the potential absence of Shaw leaves them in

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Speaker 5: a position where they are going to have trouble with Matoma.

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Speaker 5: They're also like Wambasaka is a very good individual defender,

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Speaker 5: but then he's not adding as much in terms of

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Speaker 5: going forward. So I think the biggest question mark is

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Speaker 5: this United back line not as even as much the attack.

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Speaker 5: Rashford being in or out is obviously important to this team.

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Speaker 5: You even saw it in the match against not Eam Forrest.

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Speaker 5: They ended up creating a ton of chances and overwhelming

201
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Speaker 5: them in the midfield, but in terms of getting into

202
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Speaker 5: the penalty area, they were not very good at creating

203
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Speaker 5: big scoring chances in that match. You know, there's a

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Speaker 5: lot of Marshall not being as good at veg Horse

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Speaker 5: at linking up the play and then Rashford not being

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Speaker 5: there to get the shots and they ended up being

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Speaker 5: a lot of Anthony shooting from distance. They ended up

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Speaker 5: getting the goal and off of a save deflection to

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Speaker 5: Anthony getting the box, but he wasn't in the penalty

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Speaker 5: area much in that match. So that is a little concerning.

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Speaker 5: And so I like Brighton here. We talked about this

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Speaker 5: last week. I mean I bet them at to pick them.

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Speaker 5: I still like them their small favorite. Now I'd play

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Speaker 5: brighton jna bettet to minus one twenty Real League.

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Speaker 4: Now I will start on Sunday morning a headliner between

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Speaker 4: Newcastle and Spurs, a top four to six pointer if

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Speaker 4: you will. Newcastle's odds on minus one twenty hosting Tottenham

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Speaker 4: plus three twenty. The draw is plus two seventy five.

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Speaker 4: I think from a game theory standpoint, Antony Spurs kind

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Speaker 4: of have to look at this like a cup tie

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Speaker 4: where they're down and from the first like if they

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Speaker 4: want to catch Newcastle for Top four. Whether they do

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Speaker 4: that or not, who knows, but it would behoove them

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Speaker 4: to be more aggressive, just from what they need out

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Speaker 4: of this game, which is they need to win it

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Speaker 4: if they want to keep their Top four hopes alive.

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Speaker 4: As slim as they might be based on being three

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Speaker 4: points and a full game and having played one more

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Speaker 4: game then Newcastle plus they aren't very.

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Speaker 3: All that good A nice way of putting it.

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Speaker 4: I do think that if I had to make a

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Speaker 4: bet here, it would be on Spurs rather than laying

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Speaker 4: it with Newcastle. But BJ, what are we going to

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Speaker 4: do with the Stantonham team?

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know, Michael, that was not

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Speaker 1: a great performance gets Bournemouth the very directional, transitional type team,

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Speaker 1: which is what Newcastle is much better at than being

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Speaker 1: a possession based type team. And I mean the previous

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Speaker 1: meeting is a good indicator here, right, because Newcastle is

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Speaker 1: so so good with their high pressing and Tottenham consistently

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Speaker 1: we're trying to play out of the back and Newcastle

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Speaker 1: was causing all sorts of problems.

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Speaker 3: It's how a Marion scored with the one goal.

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Speaker 1: I know, in the end Tottenham ended up creating more

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Speaker 1: expected goals than them, but I mean, I have Newcastle

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Speaker 1: projected at minus one eighteen. When I saw the draw,

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Speaker 1: I was kind of getting kind of excited because Newcastle

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Speaker 1: consistently against you know, Chelsea and United and all the

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Speaker 1: other big six clubs out that of obviously Arsenal and

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Speaker 1: City have essentially been you know, Pickham or plus one

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Speaker 1: forty against these type of teams. But now we're sitting

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Speaker 1: at you know, minus one fifteen minus one twenty at

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Speaker 1: some shops. So I can't bet Newcastle at that number.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I'll get into you know, Newcastle in

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Speaker 1: a little bit more and we talk about what happened

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Speaker 1: with Astonville on Saturday. But if Newcastle, you know, if

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Speaker 1: Tottham obviously scores first, is able to sit deep. You know,

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Speaker 1: Newcastle is just not the type of team so that's

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Speaker 1: gonna break down a low block, especially one as good

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Speaker 1: as Tottenham. So I'm passing the numbers not there for

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Speaker 1: me on Newcastle.

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Speaker 3: So but.

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Speaker 1: I have a hard time seeing how Tottenham is successful

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Speaker 1: offensively in this match if they're not playing super super

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Speaker 1: direct and transitional, which is how Newcastle wants them to play.

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Speaker 4: And any lovet for your Spurs in the spot.

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Speaker 5: This is actually similar to what I was just saying

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Speaker 5: about Brighton and Man United, is that Tottenham's defensive back

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Speaker 5: injuries are making me a little concerned. Here, Clement Longlay

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Speaker 5: went off against Bourne, myth Spurs were doing a perfectly

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Speaker 5: fine job defensively in the first half hour of the match.

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Speaker 5: As soon as he went off, you know, Sanchez comes in.

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Speaker 5: They have a bad giveaway in the midfield. Sanchez a

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Speaker 5: little late to recover his mistake leads to the second goal.

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Speaker 5: His confidence is shot. He's getting booed off the pitch

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Speaker 5: at Tottenham and he's clearly not in the right frame

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Speaker 5: of mind and he may have to start here. And

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Speaker 5: you just talked about a BJ I mean the the

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Speaker 5: ability for Newcastle to press, to cause problems, to create

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Speaker 5: high turnovers. Well, Tottenham's had more giveaways on their own

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Speaker 5: half leading to opponent goals than any team in the

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Speaker 5: prem so I think from a perspective it's really bad

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Speaker 5: for Spurs. Newcastle's defense is still I think over valued,

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Speaker 5: but it would be Newcastle or nothing here, and I'd

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Speaker 5: be very tempted to give my numbers to get there.

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Speaker 5: I'm minus one twenty five. I'm gonna wait and see

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Speaker 5: how the market closes here. But if we get like

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Speaker 5: Newcastle minus one ten, I'm probably gonna fire.

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Speaker 4: Okay, and I'll skip back to Friday, going from Anthony's

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Speaker 4: team to Bjay's team. Arsenal in a must win spot

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Speaker 4: in their title race with man City coming away from

292
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Speaker 4: West Ham with a draw after going up to Nils

293
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Speaker 4: was not ideal. I would say no, but it wasn't.

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Speaker 4: Everyone seems so excited by the first goal by Arsenal

295
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Speaker 4: that it it kind of drowned out the fact that

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Speaker 4: they didn't win that match. There are four points ahead

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Speaker 4: of City. City, of course, is not playing the Premier

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Speaker 4: League match this weekend. They will play Arsenal on Wednesday

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Speaker 4: after they play the FA Cup semi final this weekend.

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Speaker 4: I actually think I'll be betting Southampton on the money

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Speaker 4: line here. In fact, I know I will at sixteen

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Speaker 4: to one with Arsenal in a tricky spot coming off

303
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Speaker 4: coming off of a couple like you just need to

304
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Speaker 4: manage a game when you go up to nothing and

305
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Speaker 4: you're in a title race. I think when you listen

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Speaker 4: to more mainstream soccer podcasts that aren't looking at projections

307
00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:32,440
Speaker 4: and trying to find angles to bet and whatever, you'll

308
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Speaker 4: hear the narrative of like, can this inexperienced young team

309
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Speaker 4: that's never been in this position before handle the moment?

310
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Speaker 4: And I do think some of that stuff will matter

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Speaker 4: and does come into play here and Southampton they're gonna

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Speaker 4: need to win. They are four points or five points,

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Speaker 4: I guess from safety when you throw in gold differential

314
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Speaker 4: seven matches to go there, they're down there. They would

315
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Speaker 4: need a miracle or do it to find their way

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Speaker 4: back to the Premier League next season, and what better

317
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Speaker 4: spot to do it than at Arsenal. And when the

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Speaker 4: Gunners are trying to chase down a Premier League title.

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Speaker 4: I think the spot's tough. James Ward Prows is always

320
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Speaker 4: obviously dangerous from dead ball spots. So I'll take a

321
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Speaker 4: two niol Arsenal lead that maybe I'll live bet Southampton

322
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Speaker 4: when they when Arsenal finally gets that second goal and

323
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Speaker 4: watch Saints win three two. But I'll be on Southampton here,

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Speaker 4: Anthony before we get to BJ.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm going to take some Southampton small plus two

326
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Speaker 5: before the game and then I'm gonna look to add

327
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Speaker 5: more plus two and a half live if Saints get

328
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Speaker 5: down early, because I think Arsenal is settling back into

329
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Speaker 5: their old ways a little bit. And I tweeted this

330
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Speaker 5: on Sunday. Remember last year's trend was they were the

331
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Speaker 5: best team in the league for the first fifteen to

332
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Speaker 5: twenty minutes of the match. They were coming out blitzing everybody.

333
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Speaker 5: They would get the lead, and then everything would just

334
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Speaker 5: kind of stop. It was very strange, you know. Part

335
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Speaker 5: of me said that, like, okay, if they like the

336
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Speaker 5: fact they can play this well when to get the

337
00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:06,760
Speaker 5: lead is a positive indicator long term. But they're they're

338
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Speaker 5: kind of settling back into that and the defense is

339
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Speaker 5: just not good enough to do that and we've seen

340
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Speaker 5: this now over and over and over again down the stretch,

341
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Speaker 5: that this defense is overvalued. And I think Saints are

342
00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:21,520
Speaker 5: are an undervalued attack generally because they're poor finishing all

343
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Speaker 5: season long has made them a team that has underperformed

344
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:28,600
Speaker 5: XG and you combine that with their poor goalkeeping, shots stopping,

345
00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:30,359
Speaker 5: and that's why they've been, you know, one of the

346
00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,520
Speaker 5: biggest underachievers in the league relative to actual numbers, some

347
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,399
Speaker 5: numbers here. I only make this about one point six,

348
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Speaker 5: so I get a flat two. I'm gonna take Southampton.

349
00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,919
Speaker 5: I think you're paying the tax again on Arsenal. And

350
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:47,679
Speaker 5: I won't always take the spot against the overrated must win.

351
00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:49,320
Speaker 5: I won't always do it, but this is one with

352
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Speaker 5: city looming on Wednesday, that I will happily do it

353
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Speaker 5: on Friday night football and take the Saints. But I'm

354
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Speaker 5: gonna make this probably probably put a half unit down

355
00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,080
Speaker 5: before the game and then look to add more live

356
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:01,239
Speaker 5: if Arsenal goes up a goal, because I just think

357
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Speaker 5: we've seen this Arsenal team get very complacent, even defensively

358
00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:07,800
Speaker 5: when they have played well. The leads match, the Palace

359
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,320
Speaker 5: match had both teams to score in both and Arsenal

360
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 5: played really well and then just kind of fell asleep defensively,

361
00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,239
Speaker 5: conceded a couple of big chances, almost let the other

362
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Speaker 5: team back into the game a little bit. I think

363
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Speaker 5: that's a very live possibility here, especially with you know,

364
00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,680
Speaker 5: you mentioned ward press. If Southampton gets one here, I

365
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,280
Speaker 5: feel very good about my plus two and I do

366
00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:27,560
Speaker 5: think they'll score, So I'm going to look to the

367
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:30,000
Speaker 5: plus two and look to add more live as well.

368
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it should be a nervy atmosphere too on Friday,

369
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Speaker 4: especially if, like you know, we get through the first

370
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:39,120
Speaker 4: twenty thirty minutes and it's still nil nil or god

371
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:43,800
Speaker 4: forbid BJ. Maybe Southampton scores first. But Anthony, you touched

372
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Speaker 4: on their defensive issues. When you look at they're two

373
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Speaker 4: different teams from pre and post World Cup defensively, it's

374
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Speaker 4: not like they've been bottom of the barrel statistically, but

375
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Speaker 4: they're not a top.

376
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Speaker 5: They're like fifth and defense World top. XG you a

377
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Speaker 5: loud and uh Saliba is going to remain out here

378
00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:05,480
Speaker 5: and he may be back for the City match, which

379
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:09,639
Speaker 5: will be notable. Archeta said that he's progressing well. He's

380
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,479
Speaker 5: starting to train, but he's he's already ruled him out

381
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 5: for Sunday so Friday, so it is interesting in a

382
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Speaker 5: tricky situation for them. Without Saliba, it's just a significant

383
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Speaker 5: downgrade to Rob Holding, who's fine but not at the

384
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:23,679
Speaker 5: level that Saliba was.

385
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,199
Speaker 4: Should we move on to Follhowm and Leeds or at

386
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,880
Speaker 4: bjun No, stop, let me get my thoughts in here.

387
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 3: Yeah.

388
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 1: No. If I was in Nentrol, yeah, I believe that

389
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,679
Speaker 1: Southampton does have some value. But here's the problems with

390
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:40,080
Speaker 1: Arsenal right now. And it's Saliba obviously being out not

391
00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 1: only his defensive work, but he's an incredible ball carrier

392
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 1: and passer out of the back as well. That Rob

393
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:47,679
Speaker 1: Holding is just not so Arsenal can't build out from

394
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,320
Speaker 1: the back the way they typically do. And another big

395
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Speaker 1: loss is ben Zinchenko. With him being out on Sunday,

396
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 1: you know they held him out, he's questionable to play

397
00:19:56,119 --> 00:20:00,680
Speaker 1: in this match without also Tommy Tommy I so being out,

398
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:04,960
Speaker 1: Arsenal doesn't have a left back that they can invert

399
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 1: into the midfield to create their box midfield and essentially

400
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 1: control the middle of the of the of the park

401
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 1: and honestly control matches from there as well, because Tierney

402
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:16,720
Speaker 1: is just not that Even if you look through his

403
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 1: passing expected threat numbers comparatively to Zinchinko, it was about

404
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:25,160
Speaker 1: it was about forty to fifty percent less of what Zinchinko.

405
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:25,879
Speaker 3: Was doing in the middle of the field.

406
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 1: So if he plays, Arsenal's gonna have much much more

407
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 1: control in the middle of the pitch. So I do

408
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 1: like their chances there. And I mean, listen, it was

409
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Speaker 1: two matches where they blew a two goal lead. Okay,

410
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 1: and now we're overreacting and saying that, oh, they don't

411
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 1: have the cahone. So they don't have they're too young.

412
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 1: This is just punded stuff, Michael. Okay, this is something

413
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:45,639
Speaker 1: you'd hear from Gary.

414
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:47,639
Speaker 3: Neville on Sky Sports right now. How Arsenal doesn't have it.

415
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 1: Okay, they have a plus one point one expect a

416
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 1: gold deferential per ninety when playing with the lead this season.

417
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,359
Speaker 1: They are just fine. All the Arsenal fans out there,

418
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 1: stop freaking out. We're fine, Okay, everything is fine, Everything

419
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 1: is still in our hands. It all comes down to

420
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 1: the city matching. Guess what also, Michael, if you look

421
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,560
Speaker 1: at schedule, Renford's here to save us on the final

422
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 1: day because City's got to go to Brentford, So.

423
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 4: We're okay, what six points clear?

424
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Speaker 3: His city?

425
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 1: City's still got to go to Brighton as well. Everything

426
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,959
Speaker 1: is fine for Arsenal. It's not the time to panic

427
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,639
Speaker 1: just because we blew a couple leads and back to

428
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 1: back matches.

429
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Speaker 4: You sound very convincing, all hm, let's do Fullham now

430
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 4: Fulham and leads Fulham? Uh pasting evident three to one

431
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 4: at go to some park this past weekend without Mitrovich.

432
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 4: He'll be back for this one plus one thirty the

433
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 4: Cottagers at home hosting leads plus two twenty five the

434
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:47,359
Speaker 4: draw plus two twenty five. I think, Anthony, I'll be

435
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Speaker 4: I'll be with you here on leads. In terms of teams,

436
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 4: I've been trying to fade and getting it wrong. Basically

437
00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 4: one hundred percent of the time Fulham is up there.

438
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 4: So it's probably not a good thing for you that

439
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 4: I'll be in the pool with you on the Peacocks.

440
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 4: But I just don't trust this Fullham defense to be

441
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 4: able to keep them out.

442
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, look, leads gave up what six seven?

443
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 5: I turned it off, so I actually don't know how

444
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 5: many leads ended up scoring that match, and I don't

445
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 5: want to hear about how many ended up being, but

446
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,400
Speaker 5: all of the shots on goal went in for Liverpool.

447
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 5: And look, I know that this team has had its

448
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 5: defensive issues for sure, but that is now eleven goals

449
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:29,439
Speaker 5: scored on their last thirteen shots on goal against this

450
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,959
Speaker 5: Leads team, Like, it's just not going to continue at

451
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 5: this rate. And they've been I don't want to say

452
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 5: un lucky because I think Melia has been kind of

453
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 5: a shot a below averagehot stopper, but like this, this

454
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 5: level of finishing against you create some market perception that

455
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 5: their defense is worse than it actually is, and I

456
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 5: know it's not a good defense, and then that the

457
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 5: personnel has been bad and they brought in Wilber to

458
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 5: fix it, but now he's hurt.

459
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 1: So like you get the.

460
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 5: Point as to why Leads are a poor defensive team,

461
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 5: but you saw in the first half it looks like

462
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,040
Speaker 5: Wilbur is going to be back as well. Saw on

463
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 5: the first half that like Leads are playing differently under Garcia,

464
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,640
Speaker 5: and BJ's talked about this for the first forty minutes

465
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 5: of that match. I thought they were excellent defensively against Liverpool.

466
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 5: They prevented, you know, space in behind. Liverpool got the

467
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 5: one chance they score, they go up one nil. Things

468
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 5: kind of broke down from there, but it was it

469
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 5: was a perfectly fine defensive performance in the early stages.

470
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,719
Speaker 5: And now they get a Fulham attack, and yes, I

471
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 5: know that they scored three and they put up twenty

472
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 5: one shots on Everton on the road, and so now

473
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 5: they come home. But I just can't get to them

474
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 5: being this much of a favorite anymore. I thought the opener,

475
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 5: with it being right around to pick them, was fine.

476
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 5: And they've taken a ton of money in the last

477
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 5: couple of days, and so I'm just going to come

478
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,680
Speaker 5: back on leads here plus a quarter and get them

479
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 5: if you want to, let a little bit of juice,

480
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 5: or you can take them draw no bet at you know,

481
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 5: plus one twenty twenty five out there. I like both

482
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 5: of those either. It's fine. It's just a steadfast thing

483
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 5: that I've been all season that leads is better than

484
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 5: their numbers. It's borne out by some of their processed stats.

485
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 5: Fulham is the exact opposite. So naturally when they play

486
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 5: each other, I'm gonna have leads. The first meeting I

487
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 5: thought was also interesting I mean, Leads gave up two

488
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,360
Speaker 5: goals on set pieces, they lose the match, but they

489
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,640
Speaker 5: were the better team most of the match there. They

490
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:18,120
Speaker 5: controlled the flow and it just kind of collapsed late

491
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,439
Speaker 5: in the second half. But like I said, they were

492
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 5: the better team the majority of the match.

493
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 4: BJ you're thinking this thing could go off the rails

494
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 4: a bit, Yeah, I was.

495
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 1: Kind of surprised to see the total sitting this low,

496
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 1: even from a just a neutral perspective, or even just

497
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: like from a baseline perspective of how many holes these

498
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 1: teams have been giving up and scoring in the last

499
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 1: few matches to be too basically over two and a

500
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 1: half sitting around minus one ten even even money getting

501
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: closer to that at some shops. I mean, I think

502
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 1: Anthony hit the nail on the head is that Leads

503
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,400
Speaker 1: is playing differently. I do have a better defensive structure,

504
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 1: but once that first goal goes in, just everything just

505
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:59,640
Speaker 1: goes off the rails. So under under Garcia his eight

506
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 1: matches charge, they have conceded sixteen point four expected goals.

507
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 1: They now have allowed the second most expected goals in

508
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:10,719
Speaker 1: the Premier League, behind only Everton at fifty two. And

509
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: the other big thing here is that you know, the

510
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 1: Leads attack. They have gone through some injuries throughout the season.

511
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 1: You know, Sinastera is finally healthy. He's even get the

512
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: last three matches. He's gotten four shots apiece in every

513
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,679
Speaker 1: single one of those matches, and they are due for

514
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: you know a little bit.

515
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 3: Of positive aggression.

516
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 1: You know, Rodrigo is now starting up top, which you

517
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 1: know he's been better this season than Bamford, So that

518
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 1: gives Leads a plus an attack as well.

519
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 3: And I mean.

520
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 1: Fulham's defense is still terrible, Like it's not like they've

521
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 1: just you know, just because they allowed one goal against Everton,

522
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: they still conceded one point four expected goals. They would

523
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 1: have conceded more to west Ham if west Ham didn't

524
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: score early and start to play a little bit more passively.

525
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 1: So and the other big thing is, as Anthony mentioned

526
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 1: the previous meeting is Leads overall for the season have

527
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 1: been good at defending crosses, but like they did a

528
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 1: horrible job in that previous meeting at defending those crosses.

529
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 3: So I think this one could.

530
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: Get off the rails and I project over three goals

531
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 1: for this match, so over two and a half, you know,

532
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 1: minus one O five is really good value for me.

533
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 3: It's taken over here for the seven thirty and kickoff.

534
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I thought this was going to be three and

535
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 5: I bet the.

536
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: Under, but I know I was very surprised two and

537
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 1: a half.

538
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 5: I was like, Okay, I guess I'm not betting yonder,

539
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 5: so I am in between the two numbers. I would

540
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 5: actually bet the over at two and a half before

541
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 5: anything else too, so posted a two point sixty five.

542
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: And the one more thing is like both of these

543
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,120
Speaker 1: teams the way they're set up right is like once

544
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 1: the first goal goes in, they have to become very

545
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 1: very vulnerable and trained. They have to play the match

546
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:38,199
Speaker 1: very very transitionally. So whoever scores first year, as long

547
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:39,919
Speaker 1: as we get a goal within the first you know,

548
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,199
Speaker 1: twenty thirty minutes, I believe that this match is going

549
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 1: to completely go off the rails.

550
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 4: If you've listened to this show for I don't know

551
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 4: more than five episodes, you'll probably know exactly how we're

552
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 4: all going to end up For this next one. It's

553
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,159
Speaker 4: almost to the point where we might not even need

554
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 4: to preview it. At Brentford plus one fifty at home

555
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:02,439
Speaker 4: host Villa plus one eighty seven to drop plus two

556
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:08,360
Speaker 4: twenty five. Aston Villa. Jesus, what is going on here?

557
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 1: There's a lot of there's a lot of debate in

558
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: the internet streets right now about if aston Villa is

559
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:13,479
Speaker 1: good or not.

560
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 3: It's uh, it's very interesting.

561
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 1: There's a very hot debate, and honestly, I don't know

562
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 1: which way I go on it.

563
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 4: Like well, I mean, I think if at some point,

564
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 4: like you, we look at numbers and underlying stats and

565
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 4: expected goals and everything and helped to formulate an opinion,

566
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 4: and but at some point, real life happens. And if

567
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 4: they're winning these games and doing so convincingly against you know,

568
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 4: some decent teams. They haven't lost since February eighteenth to Arsenal.

569
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 4: I know the run and hasn't been crazy considering like

570
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 4: Chelsea where Chelsea's at and they caught Crystal Palace before

571
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 4: they transformed into the best team in the world. But

572
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 4: you know, they were really good against Newcastle last week,

573
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 4: so maybe they argue, but I still think Brentford's better

574
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 4: and That's where I'm gonna end up. And Brentford coming

575
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 4: off of kind of in an exact opposite run. They

576
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 4: haven't won since March fifteenth, at Southampton h three draws

577
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 4: and two losses along the way, including some you know,

578
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 4: a tough draw against Leicester and a lucky Druggets brightened

579
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 4: and then a lost to Wolves that was sure unlucky,

580
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 4: but still Anyways, that's the time you want to buy

581
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 4: in on Brentford, especially when they're at home. So I'll

582
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 4: take the B's on the money line plus one fifty, Anthony,

583
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 4: what do you think?

584
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, let's look in at aston Ville a

585
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 5: little bit here. Since January twenty sixth, they've played ten

586
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 5: matches at even strength nine hundred and forty minutes. They

587
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 5: have an expected goals for one point three seven expected

588
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 5: goals against a one point five to three. That one

589
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 5: point five to three number puts them sixth eighth worst

590
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 5: in the prem in that timeframe. Yet they've only conceded

591
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 5: one point oh five goals per ninety, which is third best.

592
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 5: So you're looking at a defense that's continuing to concede

593
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 5: a ton of chances. We've talked about this on the

594
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 5: show now with the defensive possession and the turnovers high

595
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 5: because they don't have good ball players, they don't have

596
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 5: very good ball winners in defensive midfield either, and so

597
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 5: they're very vulnerable to transition to tacks. And they haven't

598
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 5: improved there really under Emery. They haven't conceded goals, but

599
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 5: they haven't really improved if you look at the n

600
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 5: I numbers. And Martinez has been really good. I know

601
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 5: we all think he's kind of overrated off of that

602
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 5: World Cup run, but like he's been excellent, and Ali

603
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 5: Watkins is on the finishing streak of his life. So look,

604
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 5: has Emery made them better? Maybe a little, But this

605
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 5: team has a negative expected goal difference in the last

606
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 5: ten matches and they've somehow managed to only lose one

607
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 5: of them. That's just really really good fortune. And somehow

608
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 5: I've gone from the high man on Villa coming into

609
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 5: the season to now the low man.

610
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 3: But like, why is that?

611
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 4: I think it's because your man, Stephen Gerrard is not

612
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 4: mangesing them anymore.

613
00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 5: Well maybe, I mean that's certainly possible. But so anytime

614
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 5: a team wins eight seven out of eight, yeah, I'm

615
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 5: going to be inherently skeptical.

616
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 4: Emory's a magician, He's a dark artist guy.

617
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 3: He is one of our guys too.

618
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 5: I know that's what's annoying about it. But this is

619
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 5: still the same team that conceded two and a half

620
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 5: xg to Leicester, three plus to City and Arsenal one

621
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 5: point six in a win against Everton that was ultimately

622
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 5: pretty fortunate over to at west Ham like this has

623
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 5: not been. And look we talked about Chelsea. They didn't

624
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 5: score in the match either, but Chelsea had their best

625
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 5: attacking performance of like the.

626
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 3: Season in that game.

627
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 5: So I just don't really think this defense is that good.

628
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 5: I think you're gonna get exposed at Brentford. The progression

629
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 5: looms for them. I would love to see them, you know,

630
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 5: win every match for the rest of the season and

631
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 5: get in the top finish ahead of Newcastle, but I

632
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 5: just I really don't think it's gonna happen. So I

633
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 5: like Brentford as well at home, but pick them. I

634
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:47,479
Speaker 5: mean this implies that they're better than Brentford. Are they

635
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 5: better than Redford? I think I have them one spot ahead, right.

636
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 1: I Mean, here's the thing in anthonythan nail on the

637
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 1: head where it's you know, under Emory they've obviously been

638
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 1: over forming. But even in that Newcastle match, they they

639
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: obviously scored early there. So what Emery was able to

640
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 1: do so. He was able to set his team up

641
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: very defensively. They were able to sit in their two

642
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 1: deep low blocks of four, condensed the space in the

643
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 1: middle of the pitch. And Newcastle is just a team

644
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:15,959
Speaker 1: that's much much better in transition rather than handing them

645
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: the ball and asking them to break you down.

646
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 3: So now we.

647
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 1: Get into a situation where they're going to face a

648
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 1: Brentford team that's going to give them the ball. They're

649
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 1: going to say, hey, aston Villa, come break us down.

650
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 1: And if you look through aston Villa, you know their

651
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 1: last few performances against Lester against not Agham Forest, where

652
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,479
Speaker 1: they controlled a lot of possession, controlled the match, they

653
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 1: did a great job. But those are two of the

654
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 1: worst teams in the Premier League. Even Bourne myth, you know,

655
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 1: five matches ago created one point three expected goals. They're

656
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 1: one of the better transition teams in the Premier League

657
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 1: and Brentford is just so so much better than that.

658
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: So now aston Villa is going to be in a situation,

659
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 1: like Anthony said, they're gonna have to defend and transition

660
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: a lot during this match, and I'm not so sure

661
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: if they are really cut out to do that right now.

662
00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:59,719
Speaker 1: And the match that kind of comes to mind, it

663
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 1: was while ago, and even if you look at the XG

664
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 1: it didn't really bear it out, was when aston Villa

665
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 1: went to Southampton and they won the match one nothing

666
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 1: and they controlled a lot of possession. They controlled the match,

667
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 1: they tilted the field on Southampton and everything, but Southampton

668
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: was incredibly dangerous in transition opportunities and even had a

669
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 1: goal of vart Off. So you only see well Southampton

670
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: score they created only point six expected goals, So yeah,

671
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 1: I mean that's you know, it's a bad performance, but

672
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 1: they still are very, very vulnerable in transition defense. And

673
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 1: you know, this is just a perfect You know, if

674
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 1: you've been betting a long time or even recently, you

675
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 1: always want to get teams at the at the bet

676
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 1: against teams at the peak of their market value and

677
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: buy teams at their lowest.

678
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 3: Part of their market value.

679
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 1: Like I've Renford projected at plus one h six here,

680
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 1: So I think they're a better team than Southampton. They've obviously,

681
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 1: excuse me, Southampton and aston Villa, they've obviously played much

682
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 1: better at home than they have on the road this season,

683
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: So give me the Bees as well.

684
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,239
Speaker 3: John o Beett on two.

685
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 4: I think it's fair to call them title favorites at

686
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 4: this point under Roy Hodgson. Yeah, Crystal Palace.

687
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 1: Why wait, you just got now to say, Addie Hooter

688
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 1: is going to be the manager of your old boy

689
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 1: at Gladbach, Anthony, Addie Hooter He's gonna be the manager

690
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 1: of Crystal Palace now going forward? Why didn't they extend

691
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 1: Hodgson liked? I think he hearned a contract through what

692
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: twenty thirty two? I think that would be.

693
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know how, I don't know. Like

694
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 4: you just just stick with him. He's yeah, he's obviously

695
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 4: just coming into his own, just.

696
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 3: Finding his just finding his form.

697
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 4: As't man let him, let him get his sea legs

698
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 4: under him. Palace even money favorite at home Everton three

699
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 4: to one on the road. That draw is plus two

700
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 4: twenty five. The big news here is it does look

701
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 4: like Dominic Calvert Lewin should be back, thankfully for Everden.

702
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 4: Can you guys name? I think one's pretty easy to

703
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 4: get Everden's top goal scorers? They have four? Mary Gray, Yes,

704
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 4: he's the easy one.

705
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 3: I thought Neil Mulpie.

706
00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 5: Nope, tarcoss I was thinking Dwight McNeil.

707
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 4: It's McNeil's who's red hot. That is the lowest amount

708
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 4: of goals for a leading goal scorer of any team

709
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:11,319
Speaker 4: in the Premier League, just behind West Ham who have

710
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 4: two players at five apiece. So I guess that the

711
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 4: question becomes, will Dominate Covert Lewin end up being the

712
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 4: leading goal scorer. I think he's got one on the year.

713
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:24,839
Speaker 4: We'll see if he says healthy enough, but he does

714
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 4: make a big difference, and I think that he's someone

715
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 4: that Sean Ditsch, you know, it's perfect for his style.

716
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 4: Trying to swing crosses into MOPI is a very different

717
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,399
Speaker 4: puzzle to solve than to someone like Dominic Covert Lewin,

718
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,919
Speaker 4: so as long as he's healthy should help. But they're

719
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 4: going up against the red hot Crystal Palace team. Is

720
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 4: now the time to sell on Roy Hodgson's Harlem Globetrotters

721
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,799
Speaker 4: at Selhurst Park? I would, I would lean towards it,

722
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 4: but PJ, you're looking at the total instead.

723
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 1: I am, and my if you know, if this was

724
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 1: maybe the beginning of the season where Sean Ditche wasn't

725
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 1: hired by a team and we thought Roy Hodgson was

726
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 1: still on the beach somewhere and you told me that

727
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet an over between a Sean Ditch coach

728
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,360
Speaker 1: team and a Roy Hodgin coach team, I would have

729
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: thought that you are crazy.

730
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 3: But this is where you're at because Roy Hodgson.

731
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 1: And this is something I spoke of on the last

732
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,880
Speaker 1: podcast is I'm kicking myself for not seeing this before.

733
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:29,359
Speaker 1: But like when he managed Watford last season and they

734
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 1: were in the relegation zone and they needed to get

735
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 1: out of it, and they he made those matches.

736
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 3: Incredibly, incredibly aggressive.

737
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 1: It wasn't the Roy Hodgson with Crystal Palace four four

738
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,400
Speaker 1: to two low block, let's just try to you know,

739
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:42,719
Speaker 1: win on counter attacks and sat pieces and everything like that.

740
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,720
Speaker 1: Now he has opened everything up for Crystal Palace.

741
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:47,399
Speaker 3: They obviously have got a lot more life.

742
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 1: And Anthony will tell you the greatest thing he did

743
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 1: as a manager was coming at the easiest part of

744
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: the schedule when Crystal Palace is now in this really

745
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 1: nice run in to end the season and has a

746
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 1: decent chance still at a top ten finish. And we've

747
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 1: spoke about it a ton with Sean Ditch as well.

748
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 1: Is that he's not what he was at Burnley. He's

749
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 1: not four four to two little block. He's come out,

750
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 1: he's pressed. He wants to disrupt build up play going forward,

751
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 1: and that's created a lot of high event matches.

752
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 3: We've already said.

753
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 1: You know, Everton matches are averaging around three point two

754
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 1: expected goals since he took over, So I have no

755
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: reason to believe why this isn't a end to end

756
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 1: style match like we've seen with both Everton and Crystal

757
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 1: Palace as of recently. I think this, what this line

758
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 1: is implying is that this is going to be a

759
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 1: four to four to two against four to four to

760
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 1: two slog and it's just going to be like whoever

761
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 1: can whoever scores off a corner of sepiees. It's just

762
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:39,359
Speaker 1: not the case with the style of play of these

763
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 1: two teams right now.

764
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 3: So I like over two.

765
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 1: You can find it at you know, a little below

766
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 1: minus one thirty. Right now, I probably wouldn't play anything

767
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 1: over minus one thirty. I do project two point five

768
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 1: goals right on. So if you want to play over

769
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:54,319
Speaker 1: two and a half at anything plus one fifteen or better,

770
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 1: that's also good as a price to target for me.

771
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 1: So but I'm on and over in a game involving

772
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 1: Hodgson and Sean Ditsch.

773
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:04,320
Speaker 4: Sounds like a great way to spend It would be

774
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 4: over nothing for me as well, But I have nothing here.

775
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 4: Sounds fun. I'll be, you know, just white knuckles.

776
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 3: By the way, Michael, they're fine.

777
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was funny.

778
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 3: Battle is.

779
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 1: Every single team except for Bournemouth.

780
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 3: Lost this past weekend, so we're.

781
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 4: Just right at where we were so outrageous. One of

782
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 4: those teams was Leicester City. They're plus one fifty hosting Wolverhampton,

783
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 4: plus one ninety, the draws plus two thirty. I think Wolves,

784
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:35,399
Speaker 4: Fulham and aston Villa are in their own little Premier

785
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:40,439
Speaker 4: League right now where just everything is kind of.

786
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 5: Weirdsea Chelsea's in them. I don't think Wolves are totally

787
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 5: safe yet.

788
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 4: I mean, they're not totally safe, but they're in a

789
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 4: weird They're just every game they have is very weird,

790
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 4: and just when I think getting the you know, six

791
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 4: game losing streak that seems to be coming, it doesn't.

792
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 4: But I do think you're right. I think that they're

793
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,840
Speaker 4: still a little sneaky if you're looking for a relegation

794
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,359
Speaker 4: long shot. They have a tough schedule and they still

795
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 4: play the teams behind a bunch of teams behind them,

796
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 4: So I just want to keep in mind including Lester. Uh.

797
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 4: I got nothing here though, because I don't want to

798
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 4: bet Lester. I just don't want to bet him, especially

799
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,239
Speaker 4: dont want to bet him as a slight favorite. So

800
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 4: I'll be passing and ruining my decision when when Lester wins. Here, BJA,

801
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 4: I have.

802
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: A question for the two of you. Well, I have

803
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 1: two questions. First off, did you guys know Dean Smith

804
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:32,879
Speaker 1: was the manager of Lester? Now that went completely under

805
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 1: my radar. I turned on the match on I turned

806
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 1: on the match on Saturday, and I saw him on

807
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 1: the touch line and I like had a panic moment

808
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:40,320
Speaker 1: of like, oh my gosh, what is happening?

809
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 3: I can totally miss that. So that's that's what we were.

810
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 4: Off the top, I said, if I predicted those weird

811
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 4: things happening, if I predicted Dean Smith to be the

812
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 4: manager Lester, I don't think anyone would be like, yeah, no, no,

813
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:51,919
Speaker 4: that makes a ton of sense.

814
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 1: Probably why not. Yeah, So that's interesting. But here here's

815
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 1: my second question for you and anythingy knows the answer

816
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 1: to this question because I asked to him Michael, how

817
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 1: many goals do you think the striking qua triplet of

818
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:17,800
Speaker 1: he Chan Huang, Rau, Jimenez, Athus Kunya, and Diego Coasta

819
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 1: have scored for Wolves this season?

820
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 3: How many goals total? Three?

821
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 1: Jmenez hasn't scored, Coast has scored one, Kunya has scored one,

822
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,920
Speaker 1: and he Chan Hwang has scored one. And that just

823
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 1: tells you everything you need to know about the Wolves

824
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 1: attack is that we've been talking. I mean, I feel

825
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 1: like I come on here and just say it every

826
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 1: single week. I just like, it's just shots from outside

827
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 1: the box. It's low quality chances, like it just happens

828
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: like over and over and over again. And yes, I

829
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 1: understand that they beat Brentford on Saturday at home, but

830
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 1: I mean they created point eight expected goals and one

831
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 1: of the one of the goals that Diego Coasta scored

832
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 1: was a complete deflection where the Brentford got was trying

833
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 1: to clear it. And the market is just completely down

834
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 1: on this Lester team right now. Essentially be a just

835
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 1: straight pick them against Wolves at home.

836
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 3: She just tells you.

837
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 1: Everything you need to know about it. And these are

838
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 1: two also very possession based teams from the back of

839
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 1: like none of these teams. Both these teams really don't

840
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: want to play transitionally, they want to build out from

841
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: the back. Then you know, Lester is very very good

842
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,319
Speaker 1: at playing through pressure, although Wolves is not the best

843
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,400
Speaker 1: pressing team in the world, So for.

844
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 3: Me, it'd be Lester or nothing.

845
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 1: I do project Lester as a as a small favor

846
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:25,319
Speaker 1: here around around plus one twenty plus one twenty five,

847
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 1: so I guess there is some value here. Lester's can

848
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 1: be without Harvey Barnes for this match, which is, you know,

849
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 1: hurts them a little bit. They obviously have some other

850
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 1: attackers beside it, But you know, Anthe's also mentioned this

851
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 1: as well. I'd like to see who maybe they're starting

852
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 1: up top before I decide if I want to bet

853
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 1: Lester or not, because if they're going to start Jamie VARDI,

854
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 1: there's no way in hell then I'm going to bet

855
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,759
Speaker 1: this Lester team. But if they start Ianacho or Pats

856
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 1: and Daca, they're much much more threatening against this Wolves team.

857
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,760
Speaker 1: But I do project a little bit of value on Lesters,

858
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 1: But other than that, I'm passing.

859
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, under two and a half. Best price I see

860
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 5: as mine one thirty two. That would be a play

861
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:06,360
Speaker 5: for me. Anything below one thirty five. From a matchup perspective.

862
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:08,759
Speaker 5: This is two teams take the four combined for the

863
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,760
Speaker 5: fourth bottom. They're both in the bottom four in lowest

864
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 5: shot quality average in the league and Lester's defense conceides

865
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 5: a lot of shot volume. But they've actually done a

866
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:21,320
Speaker 5: much better job this year of lowering their big chances

867
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 5: allowed to the point where they're actually bottom six in

868
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 5: a big scoring chance in average shot distance allowed. So

869
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 5: I'm gonna roll with the under here, but again it's

870
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 5: probably sensitive. You gotta get minus one thirty five or better.

871
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 5: There's some minus one forty fifty out there. It's a

872
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,400
Speaker 5: little too juicy at that point, all right.

873
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 4: Two more to go before we move on to the

874
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 4: rest of Europe. Liverpool minus six hundred at home to

875
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 4: Forest sixteen to one, the draw plus six fifty. This

876
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 4: is an interesting spot. I think Forrest has been in

877
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:02,720
Speaker 4: woeful form. Liverpool is continuing their kind of circus season.

878
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 4: Got the six to one win over Leads after going

879
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 4: winless in their last four, and they seem to just

880
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 4: you know, they'll pump a team by five or six,

881
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 4: then they just rest on their laurels for a few

882
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 4: weeks and they pump another team by five or six

883
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 4: and repeat that process. It is hard to to stomach

884
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 4: a bet on Forest here, especially on the road. They'll

885
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:28,839
Speaker 4: be fighting for their lives, kind of in the same

886
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:33,240
Speaker 4: spot as Southampton where they're yeah, they're playing Liverpool and stuff,

887
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 4: but it feels like a must win game for them

888
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 4: and they did. I know it was at home and

889
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:40,799
Speaker 4: they looked all right against Liverpool in that first match.

890
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 4: They won on next g won one nil, a repeat

891
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:48,879
Speaker 4: performance getting the double on the Reds probably too tall

892
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,360
Speaker 4: in order, but it's still attempting price at sixteen to

893
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 4: one against going against Liverpool. I don't It's almost to

894
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 4: the point where when numbers get this high against them

895
00:42:56,880 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 4: you should just bet it because they're still not trustworthy.

896
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 4: And I think that kind of plays into what you're

897
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 4: getting at beach A here with with your bet.

898
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:06,399
Speaker 3: Yeah.

899
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 1: And I think it's important to note here for Nottingham

900
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 1: Forest that Tywa Allen Ali is back for them, which

901
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 1: is just absolutely massive to them, not only for just

902
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 1: him as as how good he's been as a striker

903
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 1: around a point five actually per minute, but it also

904
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 1: helps Morgan gives White and Brendan Johnson who Bren Johnson's

905
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:23,720
Speaker 1: been having to play out of position as a striker

906
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 1: a lot this season for Nottingham Forest, which really has

907
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 1: hampered their attack and that's kind of why they've struggled

908
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:31,839
Speaker 1: a little bit. So the interesting thing for their pole

909
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 1: in the you know, as you'd say that talking heads

910
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 1: or everything, of what's been happening is they've inverted Trent

911
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 1: Alison Arnold into the midfield. Now they're building up from

912
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:43,879
Speaker 1: a three to five structure and so they're comed they're

913
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 1: pushing their midfielders up, which push it, you know, obviously

914
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:50,479
Speaker 1: allows them to create numerical advantages against the back line.

915
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: For Notingham Forest defense that is going to play five

916
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,720
Speaker 1: at the back, Liverpool now can press five men forward

917
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 1: and I mean alexand Arnold's been really good in that

918
00:43:59,239 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 1: type of position.

919
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 3: But let's not act like everything is all fixed with

920
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 3: this Liverpool defense, right.

921
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 1: Like they still concede over one and a half expected

922
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: goals to Arsenal Leads still creates one point four expected

923
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 1: goals against them on Monday, even going back a couple

924
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 1: of matches before that, you know Chelsea, you know the

925
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,399
Speaker 1: Chelsea match where they created two point two City created

926
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 1: two point nine. So I understand Notingham Forest isn't the

927
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 1: type of attack that can really do that. But you

928
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 1: know the previous match between these two teams, you know,

929
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 1: Forrest won nothing off an now and now we header

930
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 1: and there were there was still three point five expected

931
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 1: goals created in that match. And that's what happens when

932
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: you get two teams that are both really good and

933
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: not necessarily Notingham Forest, but where their best offensively is

934
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 1: in transition offense, and Liverpool is obviously much better when

935
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 1: they're in transition offense as well. But you get two

936
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 1: really really bad defensive transition teams, you tend to get

937
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 1: high event style matches. So I do like over three

938
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 1: and a half. You know, anything plus one fifteen or

939
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 1: better is good enough for me. I still don't trust

940
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:01,920
Speaker 1: Liverpool defense. I don't think anything is really fixed with them.

941
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 1: And you know, it's just typically what happens in these

942
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 1: type of matches where if Forrest concedes early, then they

943
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 1: can't just.

944
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:12,440
Speaker 3: Sit deep in a low block and they have to

945
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 3: come out.

946
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:14,919
Speaker 1: And that's what you kind of saw against Manchester United

947
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 1: when they created close to three and a half expected goals.

948
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 4: All right, let's close up with Bournemouth and west Ham.

949
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 4: Here Bourne with plus one eighty seven riding high after

950
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 4: the win over Spurs, the Hammers plus one fifty on

951
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:29,880
Speaker 4: the road, also riding high after coming back and getting

952
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:35,400
Speaker 4: a point against Arsenal and the draw, which is a

953
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 4: little bit of a tempting bet in this kind of matchup,

954
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 4: is plus two to twenty five. West Ham sitting on

955
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 4: thirty one points from thirty matches. That puts some four

956
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 4: points ahead of Forrest, who are in the last or

957
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 4: the eighteenth spot, last relegation spot. Bournemouth thirty three points

958
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:54,399
Speaker 4: from thirty one matches, so there are just a couple

959
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 4: results away from against the odds securing their spot in

960
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:03,240
Speaker 4: years Premier League. You look at the underlying net metrics,

961
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 4: they're going to favor west Ham by a pretty wide

962
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 4: margin here, and I think it's pretty fair to say

963
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 4: we all have the Hammers as a better team than

964
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 4: the Sportmoth team no matter what their results they're kind

965
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:22,040
Speaker 4: of pulling out. But is the number good enough to

966
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 4: go against this juggernaut three wins in the last four matches,

967
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 4: including two on the spin, Anthony, what are you thinking? Yeah?

968
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 5: I like both teams to score here. I think there's

969
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 5: a little the market's a little low. We've talked about

970
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:36,319
Speaker 5: the Burmouth attack. They have quietly created the third best

971
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 5: shot average shot quality in the entire league, and their

972
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 5: ability to get in behind defense as has been impressive,

973
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:45,840
Speaker 5: especially at home where they've been in an average attack

974
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 5: in the last a few months since you know, since

975
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:53,839
Speaker 5: the Revolution, post World Cup, they've actually been an above

976
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 5: average attack at home in terms of actually created And

977
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 5: so I think that you know, you have a matchup

978
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:02,279
Speaker 5: that's lined pretty close to a I know how much. Uh,

979
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 5: you know, the Bournemouth defense continues to have major major problems,

980
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 5: and I think when west Ham has gone down and

981
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 5: played some of the real dregs of the league, they've

982
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 5: actually been a perfectly fine attacking team. It is something

983
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 5: you know, we saw against Forrest, uh when you know

984
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 5: they were on at home, you know, creating over two

985
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 5: XG against Southampton over one and a half they were

986
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 5: able to score, should have had more. So this has

987
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:29,399
Speaker 5: been a team that has struggled to consistently against mid

988
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 5: table when up teams create much of anything, but when

989
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 5: they've gone against some of the worst teams, they've been

990
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 5: pretty good attacking wise. So I just think that the

991
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 5: market's a little too low on both teams to score

992
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 5: minus one ten.

993
00:47:40,080 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 3: I'm gonna bet it.

994
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 1: We should also not congratulations to Barmouth. They have hit

995
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:47,239
Speaker 1: their team total or team point two. They're over thirty two,

996
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:48,719
Speaker 1: over thirty two and a half.

997
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:49,799
Speaker 3: Credit credit to them.

998
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 1: Yeah they are, by the way, they're they're Brentford Junior

999
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:55,279
Speaker 1: just going into next season. I'm gonna have them a

1000
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:58,280
Speaker 1: little circle. They're just they're playing the pretty much not exactly,

1001
00:47:58,360 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 1: but a very similar.

1002
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:02,840
Speaker 5: Style to what much much much worse defensively, though.

1003
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 1: Much worse defensively it is to be noted, but offensively,

1004
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 1: you know, the transitional opportunities, being good on set being

1005
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 1: good on set pieces, it's what's gotten.

1006
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 4: Them this far, all right, Bundesliga time, it's it's upj

1007
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:17,080
Speaker 4: that's that's backing the back.

1008
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I'm the biggest back fan on this podcast.

1009
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:21,359
Speaker 3: So why not back them against uyon Berlin.

1010
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:24,800
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a Glodbock team that and Anthony

1011
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 1: knows this. They're much better when they are holding a

1012
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 1: majority of the possession. They're not, you know, the best

1013
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 1: team playing out of possession, allowing teams to have the ball.

1014
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 1: In matches when they've held over fifty percent possession this season,

1015
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 1: they have a plus three point nine expected gold to

1016
00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:41,400
Speaker 1: frenchial and matches they're holding under fifty percent possession minus

1017
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 1: four point four expected goldifrenchial. They're also the biggest home

1018
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 1: roads split team in the Bundesliga nine point nine expected

1019
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 1: gold diffrenchial at home nine point four expected gold differential

1020
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,799
Speaker 1: on the road. Ujon Blin has been pretty bad away

1021
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,800
Speaker 1: from home minus six point one expected gold differential. And

1022
00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 1: the issue here, you know, there is some issues here

1023
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:01,879
Speaker 1: for Gladblock because they've bad and transition defense and they're

1024
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:03,480
Speaker 1: one of the worst teams at defending crosses.

1025
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:05,240
Speaker 3: But they are a top five set piece.

1026
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 1: Defense by actually per set piece, which is big against

1027
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 1: Bunyan Bland, who has scored thirty nine point five percent

1028
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 1: of their non penalty goals off of set pieces. The

1029
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 1: fifteen goals they've scored off set pieces have been off

1030
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 1: of six expected that's how much they've overperformed. So I

1031
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:22,759
Speaker 1: think this is a good spot here for Glad Back

1032
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:24,800
Speaker 1: at home, I project them right around at even money favorites,

1033
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 1: So give me them plus one thirty five.

1034
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 4: I'll probably be on Mines at fort to one against Bayern.

1035
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 4: That always goes well, but it's just it feels like

1036
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:38,359
Speaker 4: a tough spot for Byron. They're going to be playing

1037
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 4: in a few minutes here against City in the Champions League.

1038
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 4: They're not going to advance. I know that they're in

1039
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 4: the thick of a Bundesliga race, but Mines has been,

1040
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:50,279
Speaker 4: you know, pretty good. I know they've they've drawn for

1041
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 4: their last five, but they haven't lost a match since

1042
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 4: February fourth, and they have only lost two since coming

1043
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 4: back from the World Cup. So this is a team

1044
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 4: trending up pretty well. We loved them last year, we

1045
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:07,400
Speaker 4: loved them coming into this year, and maybe those uh

1046
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 4: maybe those top four tickets there they're on life support,

1047
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:18,759
Speaker 4: but not quite quite quite quite quite quite quite dead.

1048
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 4: So I'll be on minds at four to one.

1049
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:22,319
Speaker 3: Conference league next year. That'd be fun.

1050
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 5: They're nine points back with six to play.

1051
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 4: It's over. Yeah, it's not over yet, not if they can.

1052
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 5: Draws unfortunely and they attack's been. They're they're a perfectly

1053
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 5: fine team. But they didn't really put it together better

1054
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 5: than newon yone, that's for sure. But Jones had the

1055
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:38,560
Speaker 5: had the horseshoe up their ass all season. I'm gonna

1056
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:40,360
Speaker 5: bet stet Guard again. I said every I said a

1057
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 5: couple weeks ago, I'm going to bet them every match

1058
00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 5: for the rest of the season. I'm doing it again.

1059
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 5: We're two and zero, absolutely miracle win. They were down

1060
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 5: two goals to Dortmann last week. I don't know if

1061
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:52,040
Speaker 5: anybody saw it. They were down a red. I turned

1062
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 5: the game off. I said it's over. They made it

1063
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:56,279
Speaker 5: to one. I was like, all right, let me put

1064
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:58,040
Speaker 5: this on for the last ten minutes. They equalize. I'm

1065
00:50:58,120 --> 00:51:00,360
Speaker 5: jumping up and down. Gioorna breaks my heart. Three to

1066
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 5: two and Stuttgart equalizes, deep and stop at a time

1067
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:05,359
Speaker 5: last could get the game type stuff three to three

1068
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:08,839
Speaker 5: at home against against Dorman. The market moved heavily toward

1069
00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 5: them each of the last two weeks at the close.

1070
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:13,239
Speaker 5: We're already starting to see that. Now they're up to

1071
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:16,319
Speaker 5: plus one twenty five against Osburg. They get to face

1072
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 5: another luck box after beating the Bokham luck box two

1073
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:21,839
Speaker 5: weeks ago. Now they play the Ousburg luckbox, who has

1074
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 5: the second worst underlying numbers in the league. Stuttguard is

1075
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 5: a much better team. I'm willing to lay the favorite

1076
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:31,839
Speaker 5: on the road and take the plus money money line.

1077
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 5: I think they win this and finally start to put

1078
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 5: relegation behind them, because they are not a relegation level

1079
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 5: team at any any point. So I think they're gonna

1080
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 5: end up passing Book, im passing Osburg, and end up,

1081
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:46,839
Speaker 5: you know, right around thirteenth, which is still too low,

1082
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:50,200
Speaker 5: but where they deserve to be after a good campaign.

1083
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 5: Underlying numbers wise.

1084
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 4: Syria Anthony year bet here will save for the underdog parlay.

1085
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 4: But bj what are you thinking?

1086
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 1: Big mema o over nine and a half saves against

1087
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 1: the Swallow. No, this Salarnyitana team just absolutely owns me.

1088
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 1: They're the biggest luckbox across Europe this season. They've They've

1089
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:12,320
Speaker 1: drawn six straight matches, which I've been against them in

1090
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:14,640
Speaker 1: most of those, and then those six matches they.

1091
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 3: Have a minus four point two expected gold differential.

1092
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 1: Ochoa since he arrived at Salernitana, has made fifty two

1093
00:52:21,200 --> 00:52:23,960
Speaker 1: saves and thirteen matches. His post shat actually is only

1094
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 1: sitting up plus three, but it's because he allowed eight

1095
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:30,360
Speaker 1: goals against Adelante. If you take away that, it's just

1096
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 1: an insanely high number for the season. Salernitana has the

1097
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:38,359
Speaker 1: worst expected gol differential in Italy minus twenty five point three.

1098
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:40,879
Speaker 1: They're one of the most passive teams in Italy. They're

1099
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 1: near the bottom passive per defensive action. They're dead last

1100
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,799
Speaker 1: and progressive passes and dribbles allowed. And offensively, they're only

1101
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:49,760
Speaker 1: one of four teams in Siria averaging under one expected

1102
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:52,719
Speaker 1: goal per ninety, bottom two in box entries and final

1103
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 1: third entries just to complete luckbox now they're taking on

1104
00:52:55,960 --> 00:53:00,239
Speaker 1: to swallow there it is in Salerno, so swallows some

1105
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:03,319
Speaker 1: really really good underlying offensive metrics. They're averaging one point

1106
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 1: three to three non penalty expected goals per ninety, which

1107
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:06,760
Speaker 1: is eighth best in Syria.

1108
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:07,000
Speaker 5: Ah.

1109
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 1: They're one of the best teams at progressing.

1110
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:09,919
Speaker 3: The ball up the pitch.

1111
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:12,920
Speaker 1: They're average which they're you know, third and most progressive

1112
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 1: pass and dribbles. They're also incredibly deadly and direct attacking opportunities.

1113
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:21,000
Speaker 1: Second best final third box entry conversion rate in Syria.

1114
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 4: Ah uh.

1115
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 1: So I have then projected as a plus one oh

1116
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:27,760
Speaker 1: two road favored against Salernitana. I basically project value against

1117
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 1: Salernitana every single week until Memo Ochoa just decides to

1118
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:35,480
Speaker 1: stop being the best goalkeeper in the entire world. I'll

1119
00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 1: probably be broke by that time, but I'm gonna keep

1120
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 1: doing it, so so swallow plus one twenty five on

1121
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:43,359
Speaker 1: the road at Salarnyitana.

1122
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 4: What about LaLiga, Anthony, Yeah.

1123
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 5: I'm gonna take another shot against Real Madrid because I

1124
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:52,080
Speaker 5: love to lose money. But they have not been nearly

1125
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:55,359
Speaker 5: as good in Laaliga. Uh, and I think that uh

1126
00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:57,960
Speaker 5: the South of Ego team continues to be undervalued by

1127
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 5: the market. They're plus one and a half at Real Madrid,

1128
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:04,440
Speaker 5: but they've actually been an above average team by all

1129
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 5: metrics this year. And I don't think Real is good

1130
00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:09,319
Speaker 5: enough to be laying one and a half against above

1131
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:12,000
Speaker 5: average La Liga teams. Celta Vigo has a bunch of

1132
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:14,840
Speaker 5: positive regression coming in terms of goals scoring. I know

1133
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 5: they got blanked against Majorca over the weekend, but this

1134
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:21,360
Speaker 5: attack has started to turn the corner from a finishing

1135
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 5: perspective after a brutal, brutal run earlier in the year.

1136
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:28,439
Speaker 5: Their process, stuff like box entries and whatnot, was really

1137
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 5: good the first, you know, two months of the season,

1138
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:32,839
Speaker 5: and I think you're now starting to see the goals come.

1139
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:35,400
Speaker 5: As a result, you can get Real Madrid team me

1140
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 5: Celta Vigo first half team total plus one ninety five

1141
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:41,719
Speaker 5: full game team totals only minus one forty liked them

1142
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:44,040
Speaker 5: plus one and a half just loading up on Celta

1143
00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 5: Vigo at Real here as Real pretty much puts the

1144
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:51,239
Speaker 5: La Liga in the rear view and focuses solely on

1145
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 5: winning another champions League and potentially the Copa as well

1146
00:54:56,000 --> 00:54:57,960
Speaker 5: Copa del re Bjay.

1147
00:54:58,080 --> 00:54:59,800
Speaker 4: What are you thinking, Jerona?

1148
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:02,279
Speaker 1: I bet plus one ten on the road at Valid Lead.

1149
00:55:02,520 --> 00:55:04,839
Speaker 1: This line doesn't really make sense to me, with Valid

1150
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:07,200
Speaker 1: Leade being a favorite, so Girona has been a significantly

1151
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:10,080
Speaker 1: better team than them this season, droonah plus one point

1152
00:55:10,120 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 1: one expected goal differential, while Valid Leade is at minus

1153
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:15,840
Speaker 1: twenty three point one. That's second worst than Laaliga. The

1154
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:18,160
Speaker 1: reasons Valid leads one of the worst defensive teams in Spain.

1155
00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:21,360
Speaker 1: There they've been garbage recently. Last eight matches, they have

1156
00:55:21,440 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 1: conceded eighteen point three expected goals and all but one

1157
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 1: opponent has created over one and a half expected goal

1158
00:55:27,719 --> 00:55:30,399
Speaker 1: against goals against them. They also been running a tad

1159
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:32,920
Speaker 1: hot offensively ten goals off of eight expected in their

1160
00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 1: last eight matches, and Jerona isn't above average offensive.

1161
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 3: Team their ninth and non penalty expected goals per ninety.

1162
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 1: They've been really good against the bottom half of the

1163
00:55:40,120 --> 00:55:43,239
Speaker 1: Laaliga table, averaging one point five seven XG per ninety.

1164
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 1: In the previous meeting, they demolished valid lead, beat them

1165
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 1: two to one, beat them on XG one point seven

1166
00:55:48,560 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 1: to point six. So I have Girona predicted as a

1167
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:53,960
Speaker 1: slight favorite on the road. So jronal bett plus one

1168
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:55,720
Speaker 1: ten or if you want to go Shirona team total

1169
00:55:56,120 --> 00:55:58,640
Speaker 1: over one and a half. Anything plus one twenty five

1170
00:55:58,760 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 1: or better is also good.

1171
00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 4: All right, legal Bjay, So hell you I like to

1172
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:06,680
Speaker 4: lose on the road.

1173
00:56:06,560 --> 00:56:11,279
Speaker 3: Against Lorient uh Lorient has I don't think they should

1174
00:56:11,280 --> 00:56:12,400
Speaker 3: be really a favorite here.

1175
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:15,719
Speaker 1: Before the World Cup break, they were incredibly flying high.

1176
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 1: They were won six straight matches. At one point they

1177
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:21,560
Speaker 1: were sitting sixth place in league on then they sold

1178
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 1: to their best attackers Mofy to Nice and Oatara to Bournemouth,

1179
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 1: two guys that combined for a point seven to seven

1180
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:31,880
Speaker 1: x G per ninety, and they bring in Bamba Dyang

1181
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:34,320
Speaker 1: from Marseille and he just hasn't really made up for

1182
00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:36,799
Speaker 1: that type of offensive production that Mofi was up top.

1183
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 1: Before the World Cup break. They were averaging one point

1184
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:41,239
Speaker 1: four two xt g p ninety post World Cup.

1185
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 3: Post Mofi post.

1186
00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:45,960
Speaker 1: Oatara, They're only averaging around one expectable for ninety minutes,

1187
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 1: and their offense is incredibly reliant on those direct counter

1188
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 1: attacking opportunities. So losing those two guys is a big

1189
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:54,400
Speaker 1: blow to them, and it's shown in their ext G numbers.

1190
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:57,240
Speaker 1: On top of that, Lorient's one of the worst defensive

1191
00:56:57,280 --> 00:56:59,719
Speaker 1: teams in league on they're allowing over one and a

1192
00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:02,359
Speaker 1: half expect goals for ninety Their bottom in pretty much

1193
00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:04,800
Speaker 1: every single defensive metric that we look at. Here to

1194
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:07,200
Speaker 1: lose is an above average offensive team. Their ninth to

1195
00:57:07,239 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 1: non penalty expected goals. They have traded eight point four

1196
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:11,799
Speaker 1: in their last five matches, So I like the value

1197
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 1: on to lose Johnobatt plus one twenty five.

1198
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:18,560
Speaker 4: Okay, onto our underdog parlay. This one will end up

1199
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:21,160
Speaker 4: being a doozy, But the last time we got into

1200
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 4: these lofty heights, right before the World Cup break, I cashed.

1201
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 4: It will be two hundred and sixty eight to one.

1202
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:29,440
Speaker 4: That one was two hundred and one to one, so

1203
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:31,840
Speaker 4: you can kind of guess at which what kind of

1204
00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 4: teams are going to be included, Anthony, you can go first.

1205
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm going to take to Reno moneyline against Lotzio.

1206
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:42,959
Speaker 5: The Torino defense is the great equalizer in these kinds

1207
00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:45,360
Speaker 5: of matches and it's what enables them not only to

1208
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:48,440
Speaker 5: have above average seasons despite losing a ton of personnel

1209
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 5: last season, but their ability to hold on and protect

1210
00:57:54,520 --> 00:57:56,080
Speaker 5: the leads that they're able to get them. This is

1211
00:57:56,080 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 5: still an elite defense in Spain. Going up against a

1212
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 5: Lazzio team which now will be without Chiero Mobile, a

1213
00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:05,640
Speaker 5: prayers up to Chiro was in a really bad car

1214
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 5: accident and looks like he's going to miss the rest

1215
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 5: of the season, which is a shame for them because

1216
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:14,120
Speaker 5: he is their main guy going forward. And really the

1217
00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 5: surgayment of its Savage to Chio connection has been very

1218
00:58:19,040 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 5: good this year, and Zacagni is good, but not nearly

1219
00:58:22,360 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 5: at the level producing about two tenths of a goal

1220
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 5: x g per ninety a goal per ninety less and

1221
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:31,160
Speaker 5: four tenths less way fewer shots per ninety so there

1222
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 5: is a drop off there between a Mobile a to Zakangni.

1223
00:58:36,080 --> 00:58:37,880
Speaker 5: When he's been out there, he has not been nearly

1224
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:40,520
Speaker 5: as efficient and it is noticeable in the on off splits.

1225
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 5: Two for Chiro, This Lazzio team has won four straight matches,

1226
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:46,920
Speaker 5: They've lost XG and three of them. They did have

1227
00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:49,040
Speaker 5: a desserved win again Spezzia last weekend, but now they

1228
00:58:49,080 --> 00:58:51,120
Speaker 5: come home then just won thirty against Torino. I don't

1229
00:58:51,120 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 5: think the gap is that big between these two teams.

1230
00:58:53,680 --> 00:58:56,080
Speaker 5: I like Turina plus a half my best bet in Italy,

1231
00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:59,360
Speaker 5: and I also like the money line here as well.

1232
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:02,200
Speaker 5: This Terino defense roasted by Napoli a little bit, but

1233
00:59:02,280 --> 00:59:04,360
Speaker 5: has now conceded one next year.

1234
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 3: Last than three straight.

1235
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 4: I like Southampton at sixteen to one on the road

1236
00:59:10,240 --> 00:59:13,400
Speaker 4: against Arsenal. We know the stakes for both teams Arsenals

1237
00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:16,120
Speaker 4: in the title race. Southampton is essentially in a must

1238
00:59:16,120 --> 00:59:18,720
Speaker 4: win spot going up against the team at first place

1239
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:22,480
Speaker 4: and they're in twentieth place. The spot though, is pretty

1240
00:59:22,520 --> 00:59:26,160
Speaker 4: tough for Arsenal with City coming their way or they're

1241
00:59:26,280 --> 00:59:29,160
Speaker 4: going to City's way on Wednesday in what will essentially

1242
00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:33,240
Speaker 4: be a title decider, so I wouldn't be too shocked

1243
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:35,960
Speaker 4: if they get caught looking ahead a little bit in

1244
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:39,880
Speaker 4: this spot. It's not pretty at all. We all, I

1245
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:42,400
Speaker 4: mean it doesn't. I'm not here to tell you that

1246
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:45,360
Speaker 4: our Southampton is a better team than Arsenal. They're not.

1247
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:47,960
Speaker 4: There's been a couple of encouraging results for the Saints

1248
00:59:48,120 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 4: over the past a couple of weeks. You know, nil

1249
00:59:52,200 --> 00:59:55,439
Speaker 4: nil draw against United which they were probably a little

1250
00:59:55,520 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 4: unfortunate not to win. Say the same thing about the

1251
00:59:58,000 --> 01:00:01,000
Speaker 4: three to three draw against Spurs. Of course they got

1252
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:05,160
Speaker 4: pasted by City. They hunk tough with Palace, but both

1253
01:00:05,160 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 4: those teams in a very low event game ended up

1254
01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 4: being two nil to Roy Hodgson's Eagles. I think there's

1255
01:00:11,680 --> 01:00:13,800
Speaker 4: just enough year to play the number. It's a huge number,

1256
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 4: sixteen to one. You're not expecting to win it, but

1257
01:00:17,320 --> 01:00:20,200
Speaker 4: everybody's going to just right in the three points for

1258
01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 4: Arsenal here and that's automatically gonna put some value on Southampton.

1259
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:27,080
Speaker 4: And if you can stomach it, I think that throwing

1260
01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:30,959
Speaker 4: this team, throwing some shekels on this team is worth

1261
01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:34,840
Speaker 4: a where's a gander? On Friday afternoon, what better way

1262
01:00:34,840 --> 01:00:37,680
Speaker 4: to spend the end of your week work week than

1263
01:00:38,520 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 4: watching Southampton go down to Flames as a sixteen and

1264
01:00:41,760 --> 01:00:44,760
Speaker 4: to one underdog BJ What about.

1265
01:00:44,560 --> 01:00:48,880
Speaker 1: You, Jose Mourinho and Roma plus two thirty on the

1266
01:00:48,960 --> 01:00:53,680
Speaker 1: road on Monday afternoon against Adelanta. I don't think Josemrenho

1267
01:00:53,720 --> 01:00:55,960
Speaker 1: should be over two to one against any team in

1268
01:00:56,080 --> 01:00:59,120
Speaker 1: Syria right now, maybe not even Napoly because they I mean,

1269
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:02,480
Speaker 1: Roma just has just as good of underlying metrics as

1270
01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 1: Napoli does and they should be closer near to the

1271
01:01:04,840 --> 01:01:06,280
Speaker 1: top of the table. And I understand they have a

1272
01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:09,520
Speaker 1: huge Europa League match against d on Thursday, but they're

1273
01:01:09,520 --> 01:01:12,280
Speaker 1: still in a heated top four battle in Syria. And

1274
01:01:12,320 --> 01:01:14,960
Speaker 1: the thing is at Alanta have just been really poor

1275
01:01:15,200 --> 01:01:16,920
Speaker 1: against good competition. You know, if you look at their

1276
01:01:16,960 --> 01:01:20,200
Speaker 1: recent results, they created close to three expected goals against

1277
01:01:20,200 --> 01:01:23,760
Speaker 1: both Empoli and crimin essay, but when they played Feorentina

1278
01:01:23,760 --> 01:01:26,360
Speaker 1: on Monday, they only created half an expected goal, gave

1279
01:01:26,480 --> 01:01:29,920
Speaker 1: up to expected them. When they went to Napoli they

1280
01:01:29,960 --> 01:01:32,360
Speaker 1: only created point three expected goals. Against Milan they only

1281
01:01:32,400 --> 01:01:35,680
Speaker 1: created point one. Even when they went and played Uventists

1282
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:37,520
Speaker 1: away from home. You know, in three to three draw

1283
01:01:37,720 --> 01:01:40,520
Speaker 1: they you know by Xhi they got out played. So uh,

1284
01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:42,640
Speaker 1: I think it's a good spot here.

1285
01:01:42,600 --> 01:01:43,640
Speaker 3: For for Jose Reinho.

1286
01:01:43,720 --> 01:01:47,600
Speaker 1: I understand that Adalanta has the rest advantage, but Roma

1287
01:01:47,640 --> 01:01:50,160
Speaker 1: has been a significantly better team than not Alanto the season.

1288
01:01:50,280 --> 01:01:53,560
Speaker 3: So I like Roma plus two thirty on the road.

1289
01:01:53,920 --> 01:01:54,120
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1290
01:01:54,120 --> 01:01:56,320
Speaker 5: I wanted to bet the under there, but it's too low.

1291
01:01:56,960 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 5: This Roma classic. Both attacks have been pretty mediocre when

1292
01:01:59,840 --> 01:02:03,600
Speaker 5: they taking any good competition. Roma by choice of not

1293
01:02:03,720 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 5: sending anybody forward in Athalonta by I mean, I like

1294
01:02:07,240 --> 01:02:11,400
Speaker 5: human the striker, but they are pretty overvalued as well,

1295
01:02:11,640 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 5: So no interest.

1296
01:02:13,640 --> 01:02:15,480
Speaker 4: All right, our favorite bets for the Premier League. Now,

1297
01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:17,920
Speaker 4: that's how we're gonna wrap up this show, how we

1298
01:02:18,000 --> 01:02:21,280
Speaker 4: wrap up every Premier League previous show, Anthony, you can

1299
01:02:21,360 --> 01:02:21,720
Speaker 4: go first.

1300
01:02:23,040 --> 01:02:25,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna take Southampton plus two. It's my biggest

1301
01:02:25,640 --> 01:02:28,680
Speaker 5: projected edge of the weekend, and I think that the

1302
01:02:28,760 --> 01:02:31,480
Speaker 5: number is inflated on Arsenal because of the must win tax.

1303
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 5: It's interesting these two teams did play at Southampton way

1304
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:38,000
Speaker 5: back in October. Southampton's defensive press was pretty effective. Now

1305
01:02:38,080 --> 01:02:39,840
Speaker 5: the Saints are playing a little bit differently now with

1306
01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:42,840
Speaker 5: you know, the new manager and everything, but they did

1307
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:45,400
Speaker 5: limit Arsenal to just eight passes into the penaltaria and

1308
01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:48,320
Speaker 5: seven carries into the penaltaria shots were twelve ten. It

1309
01:02:48,400 --> 01:02:50,840
Speaker 5: was a relatively even match and if you remember, Arsenal

1310
01:02:50,920 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 5: took a lot of money in that match. Then was

1311
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:54,480
Speaker 5: in the market started to fall in love with them,

1312
01:02:54,800 --> 01:02:56,840
Speaker 5: close as high as a minus one favorite on the road.

1313
01:02:57,120 --> 01:02:59,440
Speaker 5: Now they're laying two at home. I know Saints have

1314
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:02,920
Speaker 5: been bad and penalty boxes, but they have the energy

1315
01:03:03,200 --> 01:03:07,120
Speaker 5: to compete with Arsenal and they will be a live

1316
01:03:07,240 --> 01:03:09,920
Speaker 5: underdog here as a two dog, two goal underdog on

1317
01:03:10,400 --> 01:03:11,240
Speaker 5: Friday afternoon.

1318
01:03:12,040 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 4: My favorite bet this week is Brentford on the money

1319
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:20,280
Speaker 4: line against a team that is quickly becoming my nemesis

1320
01:03:20,600 --> 01:03:23,560
Speaker 4: in Aston Villa. I think that this could be it

1321
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:26,479
Speaker 4: for me if Philla beats me one more time, which

1322
01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:30,040
Speaker 4: I'm sure that they will. Olie Watkins, look out, Early

1323
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:32,880
Speaker 4: Holland here he comes. I'm gonna steal your golden boot away.

1324
01:03:32,920 --> 01:03:36,760
Speaker 4: But when you look at the underlying metrics, Brentford is

1325
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:41,040
Speaker 4: about eight goals or expectacles better in terms of x

1326
01:03:41,160 --> 01:03:43,840
Speaker 4: G differential on the season, and that bears out since

1327
01:03:44,280 --> 01:03:48,680
Speaker 4: the start, since the league returned from the World Cup break,

1328
01:03:48,720 --> 01:03:53,240
Speaker 4: where Villa has a ridiculous ten wins, two jaws, four

1329
01:03:53,360 --> 01:03:56,880
Speaker 4: lost record. That's for thirty two points plus ten goal

1330
01:03:56,920 --> 01:04:00,200
Speaker 4: differential and their expectacle differential is around my and is

1331
01:04:00,960 --> 01:04:04,680
Speaker 4: three close to it and by expected points from understat

1332
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:08,400
Speaker 4: they're over performing by ten points. We know this Brighton team,

1333
01:04:08,520 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 4: excuse me, this Brentford team should be just as good,

1334
01:04:12,080 --> 01:04:14,480
Speaker 4: if not better. So when you factor in home field advantage,

1335
01:04:15,320 --> 01:04:16,840
Speaker 4: I like the value here on the Bees on the

1336
01:04:16,880 --> 01:04:20,720
Speaker 4: money line back to the well with Brentford, Thomas Frank

1337
01:04:20,880 --> 01:04:21,840
Speaker 4: bj what do you have.

1338
01:04:22,640 --> 01:04:24,840
Speaker 1: Bulham leads over two and a half at minus one

1339
01:04:24,920 --> 01:04:28,400
Speaker 1: oh five. You know, I understand Leeds has conceded eleven

1340
01:04:28,720 --> 01:04:30,560
Speaker 1: goals in their last two matches, but if you look

1341
01:04:30,600 --> 01:04:32,760
Speaker 1: at the expected goals they've allowed since Hobby Garcia has

1342
01:04:32,800 --> 01:04:36,080
Speaker 1: taken over, it's been really bad. Sixteen point nine expected

1343
01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:38,560
Speaker 1: goal is allowed in his eight matches in charge. And

1344
01:04:38,680 --> 01:04:40,440
Speaker 1: a lot of it comes down to is that leads

1345
01:04:40,520 --> 01:04:43,080
Speaker 1: although they are being having more structured defensively, they're not

1346
01:04:43,160 --> 01:04:45,320
Speaker 1: a team to set up to play to play like that.

1347
01:04:45,840 --> 01:04:48,240
Speaker 1: But they're also a team that's been horrible in transition defense.

1348
01:04:48,280 --> 01:04:50,560
Speaker 1: So when they concede first and the match becomes open

1349
01:04:51,160 --> 01:04:52,760
Speaker 1: teams have a lot of space in behind, and that's

1350
01:04:52,760 --> 01:04:54,800
Speaker 1: where Fulham is at their best playing in transition. The

1351
01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:57,040
Speaker 1: previous meeting, you know, it was a three to two thriller.

1352
01:04:57,360 --> 01:04:59,640
Speaker 1: Three point two expected goals were created and Fulham was

1353
01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:02,160
Speaker 1: really good on set pieces, really good on crossing. I

1354
01:05:02,280 --> 01:05:05,160
Speaker 1: understand Leads has been good at defending crosses over all

1355
01:05:05,200 --> 01:05:07,320
Speaker 1: this season, but they really struggled on that previous match.

1356
01:05:07,720 --> 01:05:09,320
Speaker 1: And the thing with Leads is their offense is starting

1357
01:05:09,360 --> 01:05:11,560
Speaker 1: to get healthy. Sinasteria has been back. Now you're looking

1358
01:05:11,560 --> 01:05:14,080
Speaker 1: at their injury report and all of their available attackers

1359
01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:16,480
Speaker 1: are there. Rodrigo is starting up top, who's been better

1360
01:05:16,520 --> 01:05:19,160
Speaker 1: than Patrick Bamford this season. So this Leads attack is

1361
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:21,280
Speaker 1: going to continue to get better and better as the

1362
01:05:21,360 --> 01:05:23,400
Speaker 1: matches go on. And really, once the first goal goes

1363
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:25,040
Speaker 1: in here, it's just gonna all chaos is going to

1364
01:05:25,120 --> 01:05:27,880
Speaker 1: ensue because you have two teams that thrive and transition

1365
01:05:28,360 --> 01:05:30,560
Speaker 1: much better than they do in slow possession.

1366
01:05:30,200 --> 01:05:30,800
Speaker 3: Build up plays.

1367
01:05:30,880 --> 01:05:32,720
Speaker 1: So I have a little over three goals protected for

1368
01:05:32,800 --> 01:05:34,280
Speaker 1: this match, so like over two and a half goals

1369
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:35,240
Speaker 1: at minus one o five.

1370
01:05:36,240 --> 01:05:39,040
Speaker 4: All right, dare you had it? Another episode of Wonder Goal?

1371
01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:42,040
Speaker 4: Is in the books. We will see you again Monday

1372
01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:48,479
Speaker 4: morning review a huge, huge midweek slate of Premier League action.

1373
01:05:49,240 --> 01:05:52,520
Speaker 4: Pj H. We'll be thinking of you.

1374
01:05:53,040 --> 01:05:53,880
Speaker 3: The nerves are.

1375
01:05:53,760 --> 01:05:54,960
Speaker 5: Setting in, you can feel it.

1376
01:05:55,880 --> 01:05:57,840
Speaker 3: I think I might have three pages of notes for

1377
01:05:58,200 --> 01:05:59,080
Speaker 3: Arsenal City.

1378
01:06:01,240 --> 01:06:01,720
Speaker 4: Plus one.

1379
01:06:02,080 --> 01:06:04,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll see money line.

1380
01:06:05,720 --> 01:06:08,000
Speaker 4: We'll see if we have time for it, because we

1381
01:06:08,080 --> 01:06:10,640
Speaker 4: were just talking so much about ever did in Newcastle.

1382
01:06:10,760 --> 01:06:14,320
Speaker 4: But until then for Anthony Dubondo and BJ Conningham and

1383
01:06:14,760 --> 01:06:17,280
Speaker 4: on behalf of our wonderful sponsors. By three six five,

1384
01:06:17,280 --> 01:06:19,440
Speaker 4: I Michael Leaboff, wishing you the best of luck with

1385
01:06:19,520 --> 01:06:21,400
Speaker 4: all your soccer bets this weekend.

1386
01:06:32,320 --> 01:06:36,800
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1387
01:06:36,880 --> 01:06:39,640
Speaker 5: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1388
01:06:39,680 --> 01:06:42,760
Speaker 5: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler