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Speaker 1: Col Zone Media.

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Speaker 2: We should have kept working on that bomb that they

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Speaker 2: thought would turn the entire enemy army gay, which was

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Speaker 2: the thing they really put money into.

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Speaker 3: This is it could happen here. Executive Disorder, our weekly

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Speaker 3: newscast covering what's happening in the White House, the crumpling world,

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Speaker 3: and what it means for you. I'm Garrison Davis. Today

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Speaker 3: I'm joined by Mia Wong, James Stout, and Robert Evans.

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Speaker 3: This episode, we are covering the week of February twenty

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Speaker 3: fifth to March fourth. A House committee just today on Wednesday,

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Speaker 3: as subpoenaed ag Pambonid to testify on her handling of

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Speaker 3: the Epstein investigation, with five Republicans joining all Democrats in

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Speaker 3: the vote. Hillary Clinton was asked about Pizzagate and UFOs

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Speaker 3: during her congressional testimony on Jeffrey Epstein. More on that

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Speaker 3: next week, in a special episode, God and Netflix declined

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Speaker 3: to raise their offer to buy Warner Brothers, resulting in

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Speaker 3: Paramount winning the bidding war. FCC Chairman Brendan Carr held

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Speaker 3: CNBC that the Paramount deal would be approved quote unquote

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Speaker 3: pretty quickly and that Netflix quote would have had a

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Speaker 3: very difficult path saying the paramount deal is quote a

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Speaker 3: lot cleaner does not raise all the same types of

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Speaker 3: concerns unquote. More on that in the episode before this

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Speaker 3: one insane. He just said that out loudon yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: On Thursday February twenty sixth, almost a year after Mahmoud

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Speaker 3: Khalil was first attained, Ice agents arrested another Columbia student

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Speaker 3: in the early hours of the morning. Shortly after six am,

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Speaker 3: five playing clothes agents from the Department of Homeland Security

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Speaker 3: showed up outside a Columbia apartment building without a warrant,

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Speaker 3: demanding to be let inside. The agents gained entry by

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Speaker 3: falsely telling the buildings superintendent that they were police searching

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Speaker 3: for a missing child, even bringing pictures of this fake kid.

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Speaker 3: The agents used this lie to enter into the apartment

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Speaker 3: of twenty nine year old student Ellie Agaheva, where she

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Speaker 3: was then arrested and taken off campus. After being detained,

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Speaker 3: Agaheva posted on Instagram quote, dhs illegally arrested me. Please help.

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Speaker 3: This same day, Mayor Mom Donnie happened to be meeting

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Speaker 3: with President Trump in the White House regarding federal funding

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Speaker 3: for the Sunnyside Yards housing project. During this meeting, the

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Speaker 3: Mayor voiced opposition to ice raids and concerned about the

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Speaker 3: detention of the Columbia student earlier that morning.

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Speaker 5: I shared my concern with the President about IS's detention

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Speaker 5: of Columbia student Elmina Agajeva yesterday morning, as well as

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Speaker 5: the detention of four additional New Yorkers in relation to

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Speaker 5: the university, Mahmo Khalil, Mohsen Mahdawi, jinse O Chang, and

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Speaker 5: Thea Kakordia. I asked that their cases be dropped. I'm

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Speaker 5: grateful that shortly after our meeting, the President called me

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Speaker 5: to inform me that Elmina would be imminently relief, and

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Speaker 5: indeed she was.

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Speaker 3: The mayor also discussed the release of Akaheva in a

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Speaker 3: question during this press conference.

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Speaker 6: During your advocacy with President Trump, what do you think

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Speaker 6: the winning argument was and did they reverse course?

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Speaker 5: All I can tell you is what happened, which is

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Speaker 5: that I shared directly with the President a list of

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Speaker 5: names of Columbia students and those who've also been detained

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Speaker 5: because of their activity on Columbia campus, and that these

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Speaker 5: actions do nothing to advance the cause of public safety,

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Speaker 5: and I asked that these cases be dropped, and the

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Speaker 5: President said that he would look into it. Soon after

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Speaker 5: the meeting, I received a phone call from the President

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Speaker 5: saying that he was going to eminently release her.

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Speaker 3: At three forty five pm, Akaheva posted on Instagram that

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Speaker 3: she'd been released and was quote unquote safe and okay.

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Speaker 3: On Thursday night, at DTS spokesperson told a reporter that

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Speaker 3: Akaheva's student visa was terminated in twenty sixteen for failing

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Speaker 3: to attend classes, and that quote Ice placed her in

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Speaker 3: removal proceedings, and she's been released while she waits for

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Speaker 3: her hearing unquote. The current state of her case is unknown,

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Speaker 3: with neither her lawyers nor DHS providing any follow up statements.

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Speaker 7: That last part is very confusing to me, right, because

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Speaker 7: if she had lost her student visa for non attendance,

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Speaker 7: that that can happen, that would have shown up in sevis, right,

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Speaker 7: and that was a decade ago.

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Speaker 4: That part confused me.

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Speaker 7: I just so I was scanning it right before we started,

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Speaker 7: and I figured I'd just ask you in the episode.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, she has no pending cases with

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Speaker 3: DHS in their system, or no pending appeals. It's very

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Speaker 3: unclear what happened here or the exact cause of why

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Speaker 3: she was arrested, and the state of whatever visa she's on.

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Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, she could have been on a completely different visa.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's very unclear.

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Speaker 7: There's a lot here that I'd like to know, many

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Speaker 7: such cases, I guess, So to start with a couple

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Speaker 7: of immigration things, you want to send it. Hearing yesterday,

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Speaker 7: that's Tuesday, Christine Nome doubled down on the he claims

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Speaker 7: she's previously made about Alex Pretty, which are, as far

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Speaker 7: as we can tell, false, right, saying his action to

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Speaker 7: a quote the definition of domestic terrorism. She's in the

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Speaker 7: house testifying today, So I will try and summarize both

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Speaker 7: those testimonies in next week's ED, just so we don't

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Speaker 7: end up covering this twice. And we've got a lot

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Speaker 7: to address today. This is breaking news right before we

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Speaker 7: release the podcast. Christine Noam, the Secretary of Homeland Security,

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Speaker 7: is going to be leaving that job at the end

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Speaker 7: of March, and she will be replaced by current United

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Speaker 7: States Senator for Oklahoma Mark Wayne Mullin. Nom will be

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Speaker 7: moving into another job where she will be the Special

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Speaker 7: Envoy for the Shield of the Americas, which is a

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Speaker 7: security initiative for the Western hemisphere that Trump is planning

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Speaker 7: on telling us more about this weekend. Mullin, for those

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Speaker 7: aren't familiar, is a sittin of the Cherokee Nation. He

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Speaker 7: has been in the House of Representatives for ten years before,

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Speaker 7: he was in the Senate for the last three years,

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Speaker 7: and he used to be a professional MMA fighter. Secondly,

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Speaker 7: Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty has announced an investigation into

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Speaker 7: potential misconduct by federal officers in the state and response

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Speaker 7: to DHS has claimed that quote federal officials acting in

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Speaker 7: the course of their duties are immune from liability under

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Speaker 7: state law. This isn't true in legal terms, right, officials

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Speaker 7: can be prosecuted if their actions weren't necessary or proper

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Speaker 7: or not in the course of their duties. So this

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Speaker 7: pertains to the supremacy clause of the Constitution. Right, and

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Speaker 7: there's a two part test for supremacy clause immunity aid

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Speaker 7: the federal officials actions authorized under federal law and be

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Speaker 7: that they are quote necessary, improper in the execution of

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Speaker 7: their duties as a federal officer. I will link in

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Speaker 7: the sources of our document to a tenth circuit case

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Speaker 7: on this. The case was about some federal Wildlife officers

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Speaker 7: who had crossed onto private land during a wolf coloring operation.

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Speaker 4: In Wyoming, and then Wyoming it.

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Speaker 7: Tempt to prosecute them for trespassing, right, so we can

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Speaker 7: see like a previous example of this, But it's not

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Speaker 7: true that they have a complete immunity from state laws,

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Speaker 7: which is what's important here. I want to move on

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Speaker 7: to Iran, just like most of the US military has done.

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Speaker 7: But thank you, it works so hard on these Yeah.

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Speaker 7: So we made a whole episode about this, which came

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Speaker 7: out on Wednesday of this week, and I don't want

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Speaker 7: to recap.

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Speaker 4: What we said there.

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Speaker 7: That is why we make lots of episodes so you

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Speaker 7: can go into depth on things. So I will for

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Speaker 7: the most part be picking up on that by updating people.

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Speaker 7: And things have happened in the twenty four hours since

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Speaker 7: we recorded that. Firstly, it seems that the attacks or

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Speaker 7: eat said timing was heavily driven by Israel, who were

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Speaker 7: likely acting on intelligence about the whereabouts of Harmoni. The

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Speaker 7: attacks occurred in the daytime, which is pretty unusual, like

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Speaker 7: normally they want to time these things with moon phase.

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Speaker 7: They want to do them at night, just to make

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Speaker 7: them safer for any of the piloted aircraft that they're using.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 7: I also wanted to point out so that the source

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Speaker 7: for this Israel claim, let's start there, comes from the

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Speaker 7: Rapid Response forty seven account. I guess I described that

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Speaker 7: as like a White House affiliated Twitter account. I can't

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Speaker 7: think of the Yeah, it's one of the accounts at

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Speaker 7: the It's not White House, but it's one of the

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Speaker 7: accounts that the Trump administration runs.

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Speaker 3: One of the accounts the administration users to disseminate information.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, it's quotation here from Marco Rubio quote. The President

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Speaker 7: made the very wise decision. We knew that there was

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Speaker 7: going to be an Israeli action, We knew that that

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Speaker 7: would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew

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Speaker 7: that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they

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Speaker 7: launched other attacks, we would suffer higher casualties.

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Speaker 4: It seems like the initial push came from Israel.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 7: I'd also like to add that Tafran is getting bombed

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Speaker 7: very heavily as we record this, something that I think

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Speaker 7: is missing in that discourse. We were actually going to

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Speaker 7: have an episode about the water crisis in Iran. This

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Speaker 7: week for obvious reasons, we made another Iran based episode.

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Speaker 7: But Iran is critically low on water. Lake Uma, which

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Speaker 7: was the largest lake in Asia, is essentially gone now

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Speaker 7: from damming from a draining of aquifers, and Tehran is

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Speaker 7: sitting on top of an empty aquifer, which leads to

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Speaker 7: greater potential for damage. I guess with some of these

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Speaker 7: large bombs that we're seeing dropped there right.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it also means that absent even any of

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Speaker 2: this military aggression from the US that we're seeing right now,

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Speaker 2: Iran was in realistic danger of becoming a failed state. Yes,

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Speaker 2: because of the sheer lack of water. That is an

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Speaker 2: existential threat when your capital city is running out of water,

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Speaker 2: like there's no other way to look at that kind

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Speaker 2: of scale of problem. And the fact that now dealing

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Speaker 2: with this massacre of the people who had been running things,

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Speaker 2: as well as mass destruction via the air of a

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Speaker 2: lot of civil infrastructure, this is just so much more

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Speaker 2: of a problem, and it makes the odds of the

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Speaker 2: end result of all this being a failed state in

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Speaker 2: the region that leads to a humanitarian crisis on scale

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Speaker 2: of the refugee crisis we saw during the early stages

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Speaker 2: of the series of a war much likelier.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, especially when you consider that there are millions of

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Speaker 7: refugees already living in Iran, right from Afghanistan.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 7: RANI has been deporting them on a massive level. But like, yes,

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Speaker 7: the chances of this being an absolute humanitarian disaster are

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Speaker 7: worryingly high. Tehran received one millimeter of rain. Yeah, last

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Speaker 7: year according to some Guardian reporting. I read like they

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Speaker 7: were already, as you said, very close to people turning

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Speaker 7: on the taps and nothing coming out.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they say, is not helping that.

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Speaker 7: I want to move on to these claims that we

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Speaker 7: have seen in the past twenty four hours about a

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Speaker 7: Kurdish partner force in eastern Kurdistan, right, And in Kurdish

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Speaker 7: that would be called roger Lat that would be western Iran, right.

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Speaker 2: Right, Like Kurdistan. The broader region is western Iran, northern Iraq,

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Speaker 2: northeast Syria, southern Turkey. Right. You can draw kind of

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Speaker 2: a big glob around all those parts of the world

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Speaker 2: that's Kurdistan.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly, if you can like draw up blot that

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Speaker 7: encompasses all of those things. Yeah, Obviously Kurdistan is not

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Speaker 7: a state.

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Speaker 4: It is an area.

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Speaker 2: It's not at all that is part of the issue

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Speaker 2: at stake here. Kind of a big deal kind of

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Speaker 2: the thing. Yeah.

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Speaker 7: So, Axios has reported that Trump called Buffal Talabani and

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Speaker 7: Musud Barzani, who are the leaders of the two biggest

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Speaker 7: factions in Iraqi Kurdistan. Yeah, Southern Kadistan North in Iraq.

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Speaker 7: The piece was written by Barak Ravied. This is not

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Speaker 7: Barak's first time joining us on executive disorder. Brind of

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Speaker 7: the bad yeah, yeah, regular guests, biography. People remember last

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Speaker 7: time that we talked about Barak, it was in the

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Speaker 7: context of a leaked proposal for peace between Russia and

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Speaker 7: Ukraine that appeared to be essentially a list of Russian

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Speaker 7: demands but was not present was presented as a US proposal.

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Speaker 7: I will try and remember what week we talked about

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Speaker 7: that and and that link in case people want to

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Speaker 7: go back right, Like, I've spent a lot of time

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Speaker 7: appointing out on various websites how bad this piece was.

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Speaker 7: It was atrocious in its understanding of Kurdish movements. For instance,

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Speaker 7: it it listed Talibani and Bazani as leaders of Iranian

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Speaker 7: Kurdish factions. What Yeah, I think it's important to note

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Speaker 7: at this point that like media perceptions of the Middle

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Speaker 7: East are often formed by people whose understanding is eclipsed

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Speaker 7: by the introductory part of the Wikipedia article on a

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Speaker 7: given topic vastly like that's not an exaggeration.

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Speaker 3: Like this, this is this is this is like saying

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Speaker 3: Macran is the leader of like the Quebecy separatists. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: like that kind of ship.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I see that.

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Speaker 2: I do believe actually an episode I will be actually

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Speaker 2: doing that in partnership with INFO Wars France. Very excited

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Speaker 2: to see that get off the ground.

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Speaker 4: Info War with France is a frightening concept.

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Speaker 2: Like genuinely, hey, baby, they're turning the frogs. Gay, we

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Speaker 2: gotta do something about that. That was a French French

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Speaker 2: very excellent. Sorry.

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Speaker 7: They also kind of didn't understand that the SDF and

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Speaker 7: Peshmega were distinct entities.

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Speaker 2: That appears Jesus Christ wildly different. Yes, and combat efficacy too.

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Speaker 7: Yes, yeah, yeah, very just like unless they're talking about

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Speaker 7: the Peshmega Roja I guess, which like exists lightly telegram

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Speaker 7: rumors these days.

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Speaker 4: The piece does.

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Speaker 7: Line up with the strategies that we are seeing, though,

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Speaker 7: right there has been significant bombing of il GC and

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Speaker 7: police facilities along the border with a rock. There have

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Speaker 7: been and continue to be many Eastern Kurdish groups who

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Speaker 7: are based in Iraq right now, right there has been

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Speaker 7: significant bombing along the road from Halabduk to Kamancha right,

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Speaker 7: which would be like a road that you would use

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Speaker 7: if you're planning to move some people.

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Speaker 4: In that way in theory.

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Speaker 7: The KDP and the p UK, so they are the

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Speaker 7: two major Kurdish factions in Iraq, have unified their Peshmerger.

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Speaker 7: Peshmerga means those who face death. They're the armed forces

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Speaker 7: that are affiliated to the two Kurdish political parties. This

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Speaker 7: is really kind of a rhetorical construct because they have

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Speaker 7: regional commands which effectively mirror the areas where the KDP

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Speaker 7: and the p UK are in control anyway, but they

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Speaker 7: have unified payroll, which is interesting. It is also worth

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Speaker 7: noting that pro Iran groups inside Iraq have been targeting

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Speaker 7: Peshmerger with drone attacks. Both sides in its conflict are

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Speaker 7: bombing Iraq create now, which really does suck for people

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Speaker 7: in Iraq.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like this conflict has been ever present.

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Speaker 2: Obviously after the Iraq war. Iran exert had a significant

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Speaker 2: amount of influence. They brought explosively formed penetrators to the

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Speaker 2: Shia militias in the region. The cleric Maccadal Sadar, who

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Speaker 2: was probably the most successful political figure of the war

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Speaker 2: years and was very heavily involved with Ran. During the

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Speaker 2: fighting in Mosul, you had Peshmerger, you had Iraqi army

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Speaker 2: soldiers generally from around Baghdad, and then you had the PMFS,

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Speaker 2: the Popular Mobilization Forces and these were all Iran backed

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Speaker 2: militias and traveling, especially as I was with Courage, you

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Speaker 2: had always be really careful in the PMF positions because

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Speaker 2: you never knew what would happen because again they are enemies.

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Speaker 2: They were tied together fighting Isis, but they are not

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Speaker 2: allied forces and they have a history of fighting each other.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, that was a wild time ked a lot of

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Speaker 7: people who had a lot of beef on the same

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Speaker 7: side that particular contract. It's also probably worth noting at

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Speaker 7: this point that like it was the Department of Defense,

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Speaker 7: not the CIA that was really driving the boat. Yes,

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Speaker 7: when it came to like supporting the Kurds in Syria, Yeah,

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Speaker 7: the CIA went with the TFSA that Turkis Shri Syrian army,

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Speaker 7: which does not have a great record as far as

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Speaker 7: not doing war crimes goes. I also received confirmation today

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Speaker 7: that Barzani and Talibani spoke with Iran's foreign minister, so

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Speaker 7: they've spoken with both Trump and the Iranian foreign minister.

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Speaker 7: Kubad Talibani, who's a deputy Prime Minister of Kurdistan, not

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Speaker 7: the same person as Baffel Talibani, the leader of the PUK,

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Speaker 7: made a statement to say that the Kurdistan region was

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Speaker 7: not involved in the conflict. I think it's very unlikely

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Speaker 7: that we will see large Pesh merger groups from northern

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Speaker 7: Iraq southern Kurdistan entering Iran in the near future. I

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Speaker 7: do think it's interesting that Revied got this piece leaked

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Speaker 7: to him because things don't generally get leaked because one

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Speaker 7: person has a crisis of conscience. It does happen sometimes,

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Speaker 7: but in events like this, it is normally a choice.

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Speaker 7: And this particular story leaves the Kurdish people in a

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Speaker 7: very difficult position because it puts to target directly on

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Speaker 7: them for the Iranian regime right, and they can fight

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Speaker 7: or not fight, but they have been singled out as

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Speaker 7: a group that is going to be the ground forces

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Speaker 7: of this Israelian US aggression. And what that means is

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Speaker 7: they will be singled out for oppression at home, whether

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Speaker 7: or not they fight. That leaves them in a place

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Speaker 7: where they might have to choose to fight right or

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Speaker 7: they might fight but not through their own choosing. There

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Speaker 7: has been for some time an alliance for some time.

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Speaker 7: I think twenty second of February is when it was

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Speaker 7: made of five Kurdish groups, five Iranian Curdish groups. These

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Speaker 7: are rather than saying them like phonetically how to read

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Speaker 7: out the initials, people want to look them up PJAK PAK, KDPI.

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Speaker 7: And then these two groups have names, not initials. There

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Speaker 7: are two of the three parts of Kamala and Hubbat.

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Speaker 7: It is more likely that these groups, specifically KDPI, will

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Speaker 7: be willing to engage. We do know that Trump spoke

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Speaker 7: to Mustafa Hidri that he's a KDPI leader. I have

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Speaker 7: had source suggest it some Kurdish and some non Kurdish

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Speaker 7: groups have at least the intention or desire to enter

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Speaker 7: Iran and fight. I'm not really comfortable naming, particularly which

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Speaker 7: ones i'd want Deata sourcing on that. Yeah, what they

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Speaker 7: plan to do is unclear, right, None of these rogulati

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Speaker 7: groups are massive, like numerically, they don't have the manpower. However,

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Speaker 7: ITV reported that weapons have been stuck piled in eastern

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Speaker 7: Kurdistan for a while, and as we saw in in Rajavos,

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Speaker 7: as we saw in southern Kerdistan and the Islamic State

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Speaker 7: times like, their ability to scale up their forces pretty

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Speaker 7: rapidly is something that the Kurds have retained for a

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Speaker 7: long time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, an advantage they have over so obviously, it is

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Speaker 2: act true that in the months preceding this there were

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Speaker 2: uprisings in Iran and tens of thousands were killed by

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Speaker 2: the government, And that represents the people who in normal

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Speaker 2: Iranian civil society would have and kind of best positioned

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Speaker 2: to be active and a part of any sort of

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Speaker 2: like government that were to follow. If the current government

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Speaker 2: collapses under the onslaught being directed against it, a lot

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Speaker 2: of those people are dead. That's not really the same

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Speaker 2: case with the Kurdish movement because at any given time,

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Speaker 2: three quarters of the Kurdish movement is not you know,

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Speaker 2: more or less is outside of Iran, no physically present

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Speaker 2: and This is what happened in Syria too. When you

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Speaker 2: had other parts of the country massively depleted by the

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Speaker 2: slaughter fighting asad in northeast Syria, you were able to

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Speaker 2: have Kurds from southern Turkey and from northern Iraq come

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Speaker 2: in and provide a lot of the backbone of what

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Speaker 2: became these large and effective fighting units that were able

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Speaker 2: to defeat. Isis when you're talking about, like, well, what's

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Speaker 2: going to happen if the government of Iran starts to crumble,

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Speaker 2: There's a pretty good odds that you wind up with

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Speaker 2: a sizeable Kurdish force, and it would very likely be

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Speaker 2: supported by Western at least initially by Western munitions in

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Speaker 2: that chunk of Iran. Like, that's a very possible outcome.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I think it's probably if we do see like

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Speaker 7: continued air strikes. For the Iranian state to disappear in

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Speaker 7: its current form, there needs to be a ground element, right, Yes,

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Speaker 7: And these are among the most likely people that It is,

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Speaker 7: of course important to include the context that the US

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Speaker 7: is less than a month of abandoning its Kurdish allies

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Speaker 7: in Syria, right, Yeah, And.

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Speaker 2: You should never if you're if you're listening to this

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Speaker 2: and a member of like a foreign militant group that

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Speaker 2: the US is talking to, don't ever trust us? Yeah yeah,

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Speaker 2: bad friends.

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Speaker 7: Yeah yeah, bad friends indeed. Yeah yeah, not friends at all,

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Speaker 7: but allies.

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Speaker 2: Not friends at all. Guys that will fuck you the

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Speaker 2: second we can, like the second we can. Yeah.

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Speaker 7: I will say that the Americans in Syria were specifically

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Speaker 7: there to fight isis. They weren't there to aid in

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Speaker 7: the curtige freedom struggle, right right, and they have been

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Speaker 7: very inconsistent about not aiding.

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Speaker 2: The other thing about Rojava was it was very explicitly

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Speaker 2: not a state and not an attempt to carve out

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Speaker 2: a separate state, and they were always extremely emphatic about that.

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Speaker 2: So it's a very different situation than anything you're seeing

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Speaker 2: with the regime change the Trump administration is working on.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, let's take a break here and then we're going

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Speaker 7: to talk about boats.

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Speaker 2: Huzzah.

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Speaker 3: All right, we are.

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Speaker 4: Back and it's boat time.

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Speaker 2: It boat time, yeah, James Stout PhD.

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Speaker 7: Yeah you can't see it, but I'm wearing my little

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Speaker 7: boat hat right now.

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Speaker 2: I've got one of the.

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Speaker 4: Stripey shirts on.

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Speaker 7: So the United States has sunk a submarine and a

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Speaker 7: total of seventeen Iranian ships, it's claiming. In a briefing,

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Speaker 7: Saint comm said they were going after the entire Iranian navy.

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Speaker 7: At the current time, they claim there are no Iranian

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Speaker 7: ships the Strait of horn MOUs, the Arabian Gulf or

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Speaker 7: the Gulf of Aman. This briefing was interesting because they

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Speaker 7: explicitly made the comparison to the invasion of a RG

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Speaker 7: not an invasion, not a war that has the greatest

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Speaker 7: rep in recent months and years.

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Speaker 3: Even among conservatives at this point.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, Trump, Trump has made thing of well, I mean,

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Speaker 7: Trump wasn't strongly opposed to the war in Iraq right that.

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Speaker 7: I think he has acknowledged that it was a mistake

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Speaker 7: or the way it was conducted was poor at least.

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Speaker 7: What they said here was that the scale of this

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Speaker 7: bombing campaign was twice that of the shock and or

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Speaker 7: bombing campaign that we saw in Iraq. They have so

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Speaker 7: far used cruise missiles air strikes B two, B one

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Speaker 7: and B fifty two bombers, long range precision of strike

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Speaker 7: missiles for the first time. They call them prisms and

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Speaker 7: something called Lucas strons, which are kind of interesting to me.

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Speaker 7: They are the result of the United States capturing and

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Speaker 7: reverse engineering an Iranian Shahed drone. The shahed is like

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Speaker 7: a it sounds like a law, very distinctive, sound like

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Speaker 7: I've heard them flying over and yeah, but they are

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Speaker 7: one way attract drone. They're essentially a sort of guided munition.

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Speaker 7: They're very cheap, and they've they've been very effective for

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Speaker 7: Iran and for Russia, who now makes has licensed production

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Speaker 7: of these drones. So it's interesting that the US is

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Speaker 7: openly just saying, yeah, we saw that and we copied it.

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Speaker 2: It's one of the best ideas in warfare of the

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Speaker 2: last hundred years. It's an incredibly effective platform that seals

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Speaker 2: up an enormous number of holes that have always existed

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Speaker 2: in modern militaries, like the capacity gap that it allows,

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Speaker 2: particularly a country like Aroan to seal. Right, because with

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Speaker 2: enough Shaheeds you effectively can mimic not just the assassination

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Speaker 2: capabilities of like bigger drones, but something like close air

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Speaker 2: support in a way that's very hard to interdect with

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Speaker 2: traditional air power.

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Speaker 4: Right.

438
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a real sea change, and they seem to

439
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 2: be being used effectively right now.

440
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 4: Yep, that's cheap. There's tons of them.

441
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 7: Ukraine, they've used like interceptor drones to set them right,

442
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 7: but that requires a lot of time, technology, and a

443
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 7: human effort.

444
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think this is probably a good time, James,

445
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 2: for me to talk about munitions, because, as you noted,

446
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 2: we're using a significant amount of high precision projectiles. We're

447
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 2: using like advanced weapons systems that are made to allow

448
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,919
Speaker 2: us to hit targets very precisely that could not be

449
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 2: hit with dumb munitions or with less intelligent munitions. The

450
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 2: downside of this is that it's hard to make enough

451
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: munitions to maintain on a war footing in peacetime because

452
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,679
Speaker 2: in peacetime it's kind of a waste of money as

453
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 2: an industry, and so capitalism doesn't tend to unless there's

454
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 2: a war on reward companies for producing the kind of

455
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 2: like munitions and number in the kind of number you

456
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 2: would need to fight a modern war, and so whenever

457
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 2: one does start up, you wind up with this situation.

458
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 2: We're seeing this that we saw this with Russia and Ukraine.

459
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 2: We're still seeing it in Russia and Ukraine. And we

460
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,479
Speaker 2: saw it in World War One two where very suddenly

461
00:24:56,560 --> 00:25:00,919
Speaker 2: everyone runs out of ammunition, right and prior to the

462
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 2: United States going to I'm going to say, going to

463
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 2: war with Iran again, like literally about a week before,

464
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 2: there was an article that dropped in the i think

465
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal about how Trump's top generals were

466
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 2: really worried that the United States did not have enough

467
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:17,959
Speaker 2: munitions to sustain conflict with Iran for any significant period

468
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:21,439
Speaker 2: of time. And there's immediately been reports as soon as

469
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 2: this started that that is, in fact exactly what's fucking happening.

470
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:29,959
Speaker 2: There's a good piece on CNN Politics written by Sean

471
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 2: lyndas Kylie Attwood, and Isabelle Kushuldian, and it describes, or

472
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 2: at least it talks to conversations with someone at the

473
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 2: Pentagon saying that the United States is burning through long

474
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 2: range precision guided missiles at an unsustainable rate, and this

475
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 2: is not just to attack Iranian positions, but also to

476
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 2: stop Iranian ballistic missiles. Quote from that source, Each intercept

477
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 2: represents hundreds of hours of training, readiness, and technology all

478
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 2: coming together to work. Is designed so that means you

479
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 2: don't have an infinite number of these, whereas Iran is

480
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 2: capable of producing a significant number of the ballistic missiles

481
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 2: and the drones that these precision munitions are needed to

482
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 2: shoot down Iran's producing something like one hundred ballistic missiles

483
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 2: a month and had a stockpile going into this. We

484
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 2: can build six or seven interceptor missiles in a month, right,

485
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 2: So obviously we're going into this with stockpiles. And Trump

486
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:27,199
Speaker 2: has claimed that US munition stockpiles have never been higher

487
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 2: or better, and that the war could go on forever

488
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 2: very successfully, just using these supplies, but he didn't specify

489
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 2: what munitions he was referring to, and all of the

490
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,959
Speaker 2: information coming out suggests that we are like the seventh

491
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 2: Fleet has basically burned through its supply of advanced munitions.

492
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 2: There's been confirmation because the IERGC claims they took out

493
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 2: two THAD batteries, and I don't take the IERGC at

494
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 2: their word, but we did get local confirmation in at

495
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 2: least one case that one of those batteries was disabled,

496
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 2: and it seems very likely based on some satellite imagery

497
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 2: that both were damaged. How damaged they are is very

498
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 2: hard to say. We're talking generally the radar array that

499
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 2: you use for the missiles has been hit, but we've

500
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 2: only got like eight of these things. These batteries are

501
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 2: like not just our most best protection we would have

502
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 2: from like submarine based nuclear missiles, but our best anti

503
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 2: missile systems period. And we're in the process of peeling

504
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 2: away the fat batteries that we've got in Korea to

505
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: bring into the Middle East to continue to protect Israel

506
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 2: and to protect our forces, and the fact that any

507
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 2: of them may have been seriously damaged or lost is

508
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 2: a serious problem for the United States. I want to

509
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 2: continue from that CNN piece here they're interviewing a Colonel

510
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 2: Mark Gunzinger, who's a retired military colonel and the director

511
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 2: of Future Concepts and Capability Assessments at the Mitchell Institute

512
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 2: for Aerospace Studies. He basically made this claim that, like,

513
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,359
Speaker 2: since the United States has established air superiority early on

514
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 2: in this conflict, quote, there's not such a need for

515
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 2: the higher end, very long range state and off weapons.

516
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 2: I don't know that I agree with him on this

517
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 2: because it seems like we're using some of those munitions now,

518
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: But he's primarily talking about we don't need to use

519
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:14,400
Speaker 2: as discriminating of weapons systems now. Instead of using our

520
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 2: super advanced precision guided munitions, we can use stuff like jadeams,

521
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 2: which we have a lot more of. We have a

522
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:25,679
Speaker 2: huge stockpile of jadams of various sizes and small diameter bombs.

523
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 2: The problem is that these are not nearly as advanced

524
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 2: in terms of their guidance capabilities, and the civilian casualties

525
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,360
Speaker 2: related from using these are much much higher. So we're

526
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 2: hitting a point where we're running out of precision munitions,

527
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 2: and it seems very clear that, at least among military thinkers,

528
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 2: the attitude is that's fine, because we'll just use these

529
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 2: bigger weapons that kill more civilians, and yeah, that's what

530
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 2: you should look forward to in the next stages of

531
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 2: this conflict.

532
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 7: Yeah, talking of I guess the next stages of this conflict.

533
00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 7: The Military Religious Freedom Foundation if supporting that it's been

534
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 7: flooded with complaints from troops whose officers believe the operation

535
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 7: will bring about the end of days as we're told

536
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 7: in the Bible.

537
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 2: Well there you go. Yeah.

538
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 4: Yeah.

539
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 7: Here's a quotation from one of their non commissioned officer clients.

540
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 4: Quote.

541
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 7: This morning, our commander opened up the Combat Readness DATUS

542
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:20,959
Speaker 7: briefing by urging us not to be afraid as to

543
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 7: what is happening with our combat operations in Iran right now.

544
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 7: He urged us to tell our troops this was all

545
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 7: part of God's divine plan, and he specifically referenced numerous

546
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 7: citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to armageddon

547
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:38,959
Speaker 7: and the imminent return of Jesus Christ. He said that quote,

548
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 7: President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the

549
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 7: signal fire in Iran, to cause armageddon and mark his

550
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 7: return to Earth.

551
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 4: I am not a big Bible under.

552
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 7: Stander, but Garretton Davis, our regular resident Bible person, please

553
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 7: comment if you want to. I don't think this is good.

554
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 7: There is my take on that. I think it's a

555
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 7: great way to be going around foreign policy.

556
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 3: No, it's not a good foreign policy blueprint.

557
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 2: It might be kind of made biblically accurate, though, I.

558
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 3: Mean, that's the thing, is that blueprint it is it is,

559
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 3: It is accurate, though I was.

560
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 2: Trump does in fact match a number of descriptions of

561
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 2: the Antichrist, and it is possible that what we're doing

562
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 2: in Iran ends in the apocalypse.

563
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 7: So you know, my understanding is this hinges on a

564
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 7: certain color of cal the red hypher.

565
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 3: This is the whole thing.

566
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 2: We had a breeding made, We made it in Texas.

567
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 7: Yes, yes, this is this is one of the first,

568
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 7: the first like American like subculture things I ever engaged from.

569
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 7: Like when I got the Internet at school, you could

570
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 7: go into the computer lab and look at stuff I

571
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:47,719
Speaker 7: learn about if people trying to make a red heifer, right,

572
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 7: like a yeah, that will bring about the apocalypse is cow? Yeah,

573
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 7: fascinating stuff, very normal, very normal. That's all I've got.

574
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 7: Hopefully send us pictures to you Catalys. You've got one

575
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 7: of the appropriate color and that'll be that.

576
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 4: It's all over.

577
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 3: But I mean, things in Iran do not seem to

578
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 3: be winding down. If anything, they're holding or ramping up. Yeah.

579
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 3: On Tuesday, Mark Rubio said, quote, in the next few

580
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 3: hours and days, you're going to really begin to perceive

581
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 3: a change in the scope and the intensity of these attacks,

582
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 3: as frankly, the two most powerful air forces in the

583
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 3: world take apart this terroristic regime and defang it. Quote that,

584
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 3: by the way, was also proceeded immediately by him saying

585
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 3: we're going to unleash Chang, which is a completely unhinged

586
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 3: thing from the old old like anti communists far right,

587
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 3: where they're like we're gonna unleash Shang Kai Shack and

588
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 3: he's going to retake China and kill everyone. So that's

589
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 3: that's great, that's that's fun, extremely normal.

590
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a that's a John Bircher right there.

591
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah wow.

592
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,719
Speaker 3: And after a closed store Senate hearing briefing the Senate

593
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 3: on actions in Iran, Senator Bluementhal said, quote, I am

594
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 3: more fearful than ever after this briefing that we may

595
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 3: be putting boots on the ground.

596
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have to. You can't actually stop the regime

597
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 2: without doing that.

598
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 7: Yeah, even the like Trump model, which is a Syria model,

599
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 7: right of a relatively limited footprint with a partner force.

600
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 4: Still, like American people died in Syria.

601
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 2: Well, and unfortunately, I think they're also looking to Libya. Right.

602
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,959
Speaker 2: Initially we're hoping it would be something like that, but

603
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 2: the thing is in Libya, you already had a situation

604
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 2: where there was a massive army a raid against the

605
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 2: dictator who was holding them back via air power. So

606
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 2: being able to stop the air power was able to

607
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 2: was enough to sign the regime's death warrant. And obviously

608
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 2: the failure of NATO to do anything to help Libya

609
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 2: in the wake of that has been awful, but it's

610
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 2: totally different in Iran. Like it's the Iranian people, the

611
00:32:55,240 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 2: Ranian like resistance. The Iranian protests had not taken territory,

612
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 2: they had not swung large chunks of the Iranian military.

613
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 2: The military and the regime were still in control of

614
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 2: the country and nothing has changed in that regard. So

615
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,479
Speaker 2: if you're going to knock out the regime, you have

616
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 2: to send in the fucking marines. That's the only way

617
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 2: that And that's I think what's going to happen at

618
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 2: some point.

619
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's going to be uh the next few days,

620
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 7: probably by.

621
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 4: The time you're hearing this.

622
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 7: By the way, just as we're recording this, hopefully this

623
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 7: has left the news cycle. Several news outlets have published

624
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 7: the Kurdish paramilitary forces are streaming across the border into

625
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 7: a rut.

626
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 4: That's not true.

627
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 7: Each of those groups who are claiming are doing that

628
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 7: have denied it. There is going to be a lot

629
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 7: of misinformation, Yeah, in the next few weeks, and you

630
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 7: should be very careful about where you are sourcing your news. Yeah,

631
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 7: I just wanted to make that very clear.

632
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the first war, potentially major war that

633
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 2: started while already in place was an entire system that

634
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 2: monetized people getting disinformation about that war to go viral. Right. Yeah,

635
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,839
Speaker 2: obviously that has impacted things in Ukraine later in Palestine

636
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 2: and Palestine too, but when the invasion started, those were

637
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 2: not like it really it's it came into being over

638
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 2: what happened in Palestine, you're right, Garrison. Yeah, but it's

639
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 2: now in completely full form. At the start of the conflict.

640
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a whole like industry, you know, across many

641
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 3: different countries. Yeah, so misinformation to win money via the

642
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 3: blue check system on Twitter, which is still used for

643
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,359
Speaker 3: you know, news sourcing across the world in the case

644
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 3: of breaking events. So speaking of industry, so one of

645
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:48,359
Speaker 3: the other consequences of this war has been effectively the

646
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 3: end of trade and passage to the trade of formuz,

647
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 3: which is extremely critical lifeline for the world economy. I'm

648
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 3: going to quote here from algia Zera quote a commander

649
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 3: Iran's Revolutionary Guard core set on Monday, but the strait

650
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 3: was quote closed and that any vessel attempting to pass

651
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 3: through the water way would be set quote a blaze.

652
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 3: Now for CNBC, there's about thirteen million barrels of oil

653
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 3: a day that flows through the strat of fromuz, it's

654
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 3: thirty one percent of all sea worn crude flowed. The

655
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 3: total like impacted oil production and distribution from this is

656
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:28,280
Speaker 3: about it's about a fifth of the world's oil supply

657
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 3: total that is being impacted by this. Liquefied natural gas

658
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 3: is also being massively impacted because of yeah to place

659
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 3: the places where a whole bunch of natural gas and

660
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:46,800
Speaker 3: oil are produced. This is a very, very significant blow

661
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,439
Speaker 3: to the world's energy supply. And one of the reasons why,

662
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 3: even if you don't care like the US does and

663
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 3: about you know, obliterating Ibronian schoolgirls with bombs, this war

664
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 3: is a terrible idea because you're suddenly losing access to

665
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 3: a fifth of the world's oil supply.

666
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 2: Now.

667
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 3: Trump has repeatedly said that the strait is not open.

668
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:12,800
Speaker 3: The RGC has repeatedly said that it is closed. Trump

669
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 3: also yesterday that we're recording this on Wednesday, said that

670
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:20,280
Speaker 3: the US will escort tankers if necessary, through the strait

671
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 3: with US Navy ships. The other major issue here is

672
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 3: that no insurance company will ensure any ship going through this,

673
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 3: because why on earth would you do that? And Trump

674
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 3: has also ordered the government to ensure these tankers, and

675
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 3: this has stopped the massive rise in oil prices a

676
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,799
Speaker 3: little bit that was happening at the beginning of at

677
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,439
Speaker 3: the beginning of the conflict. However, I don't know why

678
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 3: it stopped the rise in oil prices, because this won't work.

679
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 3: You can't just escort oil tankers through the strait with

680
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 3: American battleships and have them not Like, do you know

681
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 3: how big an oil tanker is and how slow they are, Like,

682
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 3: there's no way militarily that you can actually move oil

683
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 3: tankers through here.

684
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 2: You just can't.

685
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 3: It's too easy to hit with literally any munition. So

686
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:09,280
Speaker 3: the sort of American markets don't seem to have figured

687
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 3: out that you obviously cannot escort oil tankers through the

688
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 3: Strait of Fermus. Where people have figured this out are

689
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 3: the Asian markets, particularly South Korea and Thailand, where both

690
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 3: of their stock index has had their circuit breakers triggered,

691
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:26,839
Speaker 3: which is the emergency system may have in place when

692
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 3: the market is collapsing too fast all trading halts. South

693
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 3: Korea's index lost twelve point zero six percent yesterday, which

694
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 3: is the single largest drop that the market has ever experienced. Yeah,

695
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 3: it's it's it's really bad. The Chinese indexes have been okay,

696
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 3: but both Japan and Taiwan were down between three and

697
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 3: four percent, which still also quite bad. Now. South Korea

698
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 3: and Thailand specifically, the reason that these two countries are

699
00:37:56,440 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 3: having just sort of apocalyptic market collapses is that these

700
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 3: two countries are extremely reliant on imported oil. And you know,

701
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 3: there's this tendency to think about oil as just liquid money,

702
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 3: and it's not. You do actually have to use it

703
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 3: to power things, and sertificant portion of that of both

704
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 3: the Taie and the South Korean economy are sort of

705
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 3: heavy industrial things that require this oil. These countries are

706
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 3: now in very dire straits. And the only way that

707
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 3: this could stop is if somehow Trump wins the war

708
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 3: very very quickly and be able to reopen the strait,

709
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 3: which I don't think is particularly likely. So this is

710
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 3: probably just going to intensify. Yeah, you could call it

711
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 3: a dire straight.

712
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:42,439
Speaker 2: Ah Garrison, you've brought up my favorite band of which

713
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:46,280
Speaker 2: I am aware of one of their songs, great Band,

714
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 2: or the one song of theirs, and I know one of.

715
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 4: The songs that has a slur in it. There are

716
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 4: better songs hey, no.

717
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,760
Speaker 2: But they stopped using the slur and more and more. Okay,

718
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 2: And but also the slur was never It was never

719
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 2: a slur directed at the audience. They were talking from

720
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:06,839
Speaker 2: the perspective of a bigot insulting them. Yes, yeah, so

721
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 2: I think anyway.

722
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, in terms of sound, Swiss last, not the least.

723
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:15,359
Speaker 3: Speaking of dire straits, I'm cutting cutting the white people off.

724
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 4: Talking about cutting it off.

725
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:23,399
Speaker 3: Speaks speaking of being in dire straits. Spain in a well.

726
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 3: When I wrote the script, I said, a rare moment

727
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 3: of bravery. I should give them slightly more credit than that,

728
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 3: but in a moment of genuine bravery and principle. The

729
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 3: Spanish government has refused to allow the US to use

730
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,760
Speaker 3: its air bases to conduct the war in Iran. Yeah,

731
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 3: these are American air bases in Spain. This has led

732
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 3: to a bunch of assets being moved out of Spain.

733
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 3: Trump has responded to this by I'm just gonna quote

734
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 3: out to.

735
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 2: Zerra, quote round of z Era.

736
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 3: He said he had told his he had told his

737
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 3: Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bestitt, to quote cut off

738
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 3: all with Spain. We're going to cut off all trade

739
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 3: with Spain. We don't want anything to do with Spain,

740
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:06,240
Speaker 3: the President said.

741
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 2: The Trump is taking away your your Mona Berrico, like

742
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 2: you have to. We have to stop this.

743
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 3: There will be no top us to them.

744
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 2: Where else are we going to get the highest quality

745
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 2: smoked meats?

746
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:20,720
Speaker 4: Yeah? Will that forever be worse?

747
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 7: It's not really possible to do this, right because it's

748
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 7: Spain is in the EU, and then yeah, don't have

749
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:26,760
Speaker 7: internal boards.

750
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 3: Yeah it should it be possible to do this.

751
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 2: I I he knows.

752
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 3: I think it's like probably I'm leaning towards about ninety

753
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 3: five to five that Trump just forgets about this, and

754
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 3: there's a five percent chance there's some completely hitherto unused,

755
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:44,359
Speaker 3: unhinged national security like power that was passed by John

756
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 3: wu specifically. But I don't know. We're back to Calvin

757
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:50,439
Speaker 3: ball trade policy. He's just saying stuff I was wrong

758
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 3: last week. They're just making shit up.

759
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 2: Well, here's the thing like that this shows that may

760
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 2: be optimistic, is how different the climate is like this,

761
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 2: the social climate is in the United States as opposed

762
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:04,479
Speaker 2: during the Iraq War, where like if this has happened

763
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 2: during the Iraq War, you would have had people like

764
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: renaming Spanish dishes freedom fucking die or whatever. Yeah, you

765
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 2: would have had there would have been like a social

766
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 2: there's not. There's been no cultural backlash against Spain in

767
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 2: the United States that I that I've seen that has

768
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 2: any kind of juice.

769
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 3: And you know, and to say like one serious than

770
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 3: before we wrap this up, Like the approval rating for

771
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 3: this war is sub fifty percent right now. Yeah, it's

772
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,439
Speaker 3: only going to get worse because wars WARL approval ratings

773
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 3: are always the highest when they first start. It's already

774
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 3: sub fifty. Everyone hates this. I want to wrap this

775
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 3: up before we go to ads by saying the administration

776
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,360
Speaker 3: had also claimed that Spain had, because of the threat

777
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 3: of economic pressure whatever, had agreed to cooperate, and the

778
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 3: Spanish government immediately said, no, we didn't. What are you

779
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 3: talking about? Yeah, so they're just lying about stuff again.

780
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 3: It's great.

781
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:56,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, whoo oh fantastic.

782
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:57,760
Speaker 3: You know what else is great?

783
00:41:58,400 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 4: What's that Garrison?

784
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 2: America? Again?

785
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 3: This brief ad break before we returned for even more news.

786
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 3: All right, we are back two final stories to cover

787
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 3: this episode. Last week, the Kansas state legislature passed new

788
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:30,800
Speaker 3: law overriding Governor Laura Kelly's veto invalidating state issued driver's

789
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 3: license with updated gender markers, requiring quote Kansas issued driver's

790
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 3: license and identification cards reflect the credential holders sex at

791
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 3: birth un quote. After this law was passed, the state

792
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 3: sent letters to trans people informing them their license was

793
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:51,360
Speaker 3: now invalid, effective immediately, including to at least one transperson

794
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:55,240
Speaker 3: who did not change their gender marker but recently changed

795
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 3: her legal name. State officials say about one thousand and

796
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:03,840
Speaker 3: seven hundred license holders were affected. The law also invalidates

797
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 3: updated birth certificates and prohibits anyone born in Kansas from

798
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 3: updating the gender marker on state issued cer certificates and

799
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 3: driver's license in the future. This same law also prohibits

800
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 3: trans people from using the public restrooms on government property

801
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:22,359
Speaker 3: that aligns with their gender, and allows private citizens to

802
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,800
Speaker 3: sue someone suspected of being trans in the quote unquote

803
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 3: wrong restroom in a government building for damages totaling one

804
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 3: thousand dollars. Two trans Kensins and the ACLU have filed

805
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 3: a lawsuit claiming the new law SB two four four

806
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 3: violates the Kansas Constitutions protections for personal autonomy, privacy equality

807
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 3: under the law, due process, and freedom of speech.

808
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 2: Yep, no, great, No, it's obviously is a violation of

809
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 2: all those things.

810
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think it's also just word noting

811
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 3: that this is part of a trend we've been seeing

812
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,840
Speaker 3: of just this is basically what used to be a

813
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 3: whole bunch of different bills like compiled into one.

814
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 5: Right.

815
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 3: This is like a bounty bill, this is like a ban.

816
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 3: This is instead of having legislative fights over for all

817
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 3: the different elements, they're just pushing them all through in

818
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 3: one package, which has been working for them very like

819
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:17,800
Speaker 3: clear like egregious violation of rights. And now there's a

820
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 3: Now you have people in a situation where they could

821
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 3: have their passport being invalid, their birth certificate being invalid,

822
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 3: and their state driveralism is being invalid.

823
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 6: Yep.

824
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:30,280
Speaker 3: It's a very precarious situation. Yeah, that we will watch

825
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,760
Speaker 3: to see the fallout of in the next few weeks

826
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 3: to months. Finally, the Texas primary election that happened on Tuesday,

827
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 3: some big news coming out of that the Republican Senate

828
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 3: primary was going to advance to a runoff election between

829
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 3: incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Though this

830
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 3: runoff could be disrupted because Trump just signaled that he

831
00:44:55,760 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 3: will endorse Coronin, leading many to suspect that Pacton may

832
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 3: drop out of the race. This is still unclear, but

833
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 3: it was a very close race between those two and

834
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 3: one other person that was going to go to a

835
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 3: runoff due to redistricting. Two Democratic incumbents House Representatives Al

836
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:17,800
Speaker 3: Green and Christian Menefee battled over a new district and

837
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 3: a close race that will now also go to a runoff.

838
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 3: Sim goes to Representative of Julie Johnson and former Representative

839
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 3: Colin Alred, who dropped out of the Senate race to

840
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:30,439
Speaker 3: run for this newly redrawn district. Neither of these two

841
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 3: were able to reach a majority, so that race will

842
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 3: also head to a runoff. Incumbent Dan Crenshaw lost the primary,

843
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 3: yeah to Republican challenger Steve Toath, who was backed by

844
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 3: the Parties. Far right an Tucker Carlson is significantly to

845
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 3: the right of Dan Crenshaw. Yeah, she's as fun as

846
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 3: it is to see Crenshaw go down. He's getting replaced

847
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 3: by someone that is actually worse.

848
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 2: It's not good, it's just kind of funny.

849
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 3: Replaced Hitler with Hitler too. Yeah, great things happening.

850
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 7: Because he specifically had spoken out about some Trump policies right, Like.

851
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, he had gone more independent on some issues rather

852
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 3: than like keytoeing to the to the current Republican line,

853
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 3: and that opened him up to attacks from the right. Yep,

854
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 3: But the big story of the night is the Democratic

855
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 3: Senate primary, in which Texas State House Rep. James Tallerrico

856
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 3: is projected to be US Presentative for Texas. Jasmine Crockett,

857
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 3: who previously told tall Rico that she would not run

858
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 3: for the Senate before entering the race late in December.

859
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 3: Crockett did not concede the night of the election. Has

860
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 3: since conceded, but did not concede election night, citing issues

861
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 3: at voting precincts and dueling court orders that sowed confusion

862
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:51,800
Speaker 3: come election day. Republicans in Dallas County and Williamson County

863
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 3: switched the rules from county wide centralized polling locations to

864
00:46:57,040 --> 00:47:00,440
Speaker 3: an assigned precinct system where voters can only cast their

865
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 3: ballots at one specific location. After reports of people being

866
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 3: turned away from their regular polling locations on election day

867
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 3: and being told they had to travel to their assigned

868
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:14,280
Speaker 3: precinct to cast their ballot. Both Crockett and tall Rico

869
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:18,280
Speaker 3: advocated to expand voting hours in these counties to compensate

870
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 3: for the confusion and ensure all votes intended to be

871
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:24,760
Speaker 3: cast on election day would be counted. Judges in Dallas

872
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 3: and Williamson County extended voting hours to nine and ten pm, respectively,

873
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 3: but later that night, in a ruling just before eight

874
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:38,760
Speaker 3: thirty pm, the Texas Supreme Court blocked the lower court's

875
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 3: order and instructed Dallas and williamsmon County to separate any

876
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 3: ballots cast by voters who entered the line after seven

877
00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:49,840
Speaker 3: pm and marked them as provisional ballots. After a request

878
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 3: by Turn General Ken Paxton, who claimed his office was

879
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:56,840
Speaker 3: not properly notified of the extended voting hours, Paul Adams,

880
00:47:56,920 --> 00:48:00,800
Speaker 3: the Dallas County election administrator, confirmed that these separated ballots

881
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:05,319
Speaker 3: would not be counted, pending further legal challenges. At her

882
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 3: election night watch party, Crockett said that she had quote

883
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 3: no idea how it is that clerks are going to

884
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:15,439
Speaker 3: know who was in line by what time. I can

885
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 3: tell you now that people have been disenfranchised.

886
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 2: Quote.

887
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 3: On Wednesday morning, Crockett did concede the race, but told

888
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,760
Speaker 3: The New York Times quote, the Democratic Party should absolutely

889
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 3: prepare for the worst and get some things litigated right now.

890
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 3: People will not turn out because of what's happened, in

891
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 3: my opinion, especially if no one fights for their votes

892
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 3: to be counted unquote.

893
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:41,239
Speaker 7: It does feel a lot like the first decade of

894
00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:44,399
Speaker 7: the century. Again, like we go wars in the Middle East.

895
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:46,720
Speaker 7: We've got people arguing about votes that should be counted

896
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 7: and not counted.

897
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:47,880
Speaker 4: It's great.

898
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:51,800
Speaker 3: So the total number of votes cast in the Republican

899
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 3: primary that are tallied so far at ninety five percent

900
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 3: of the votes in is two million, one hundred and

901
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 3: forty two, two hundred and eleven versus the Democratic primary.

902
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 3: That's two million, three hundred and eight thousand, eight hundred

903
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 3: and thirty six, slightly more Democratic votes counted in the primary.

904
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 4: Texas has open primaries.

905
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:17,320
Speaker 3: Apparently Texas has open primaries.

906
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:18,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay.

907
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 3: Tall Rico was up nine points among white voters, up

908
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:27,360
Speaker 3: twenty two points among Hispanic while Crockett was up twenty

909
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:30,880
Speaker 3: three points among Black voters. Krockett was up eight points

910
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 3: with Biden voters, and tall Rico up thirty two points

911
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 3: with Sanders voters if you look at the twenty twenty

912
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 3: presidential primary, and that gives you a little bit of

913
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 3: a peak into kind of what these two candidates are presented,

914
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 3: with Crockett serving on the Kamala Harris campaign definitely more

915
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 3: of a k Hive esque candidate and tall Rico a

916
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 3: little bit running off of the kind of Bernie Sanders

917
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 3: progressive coat tails a little bit not coattails, but like

918
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 3: using that sort of playbook as more of like a

919
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 3: relatable working class guy, less of like an established mid Democrat,

920
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:10,319
Speaker 3: like like Crockett sort of branded herself as Tallerico is

921
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:12,839
Speaker 3: a former school teacher who served in the state House

922
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:16,439
Speaker 3: since twenty eighteen. Fought against Christian nationalism and a bill

923
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 3: mandating the Ten Commandments to be displayed in classrooms, calling

924
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 3: the bill unconstitutional, Unamerican, and deeply Unchristian, and his past

925
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:26,360
Speaker 3: legislation lowering the cost of prescription drugs. He's like a

926
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 3: progressive Christian. That's kind of I guess the best way

927
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:31,839
Speaker 3: to describe him, as he frequently went viral the past

928
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 3: three years for clips of him, you know, arguing in

929
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 3: the Texas State House, you know, arguing for progressive points.

930
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:40,640
Speaker 3: Of view while like quoting Bible versus that sort of thing.

931
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 3: For this campaign of his, he was running on affordability

932
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:45,759
Speaker 3: and cost of living. That was the real focus of

933
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 3: this campaign of targeting the richest one percent and giant corporations,

934
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:52,040
Speaker 3: making billionaires and corporations quote unquote pay their fair share

935
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:55,799
Speaker 3: of taxes, raising federal minimum wage to fifteen dollars, expanding

936
00:50:56,040 --> 00:51:00,760
Speaker 3: child and earned income tax credits. He's opposed state legislation

937
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 3: restricting gender affirming healthcare, including for people under eighteen. In September,

938
00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 3: right after he announced his candidacy, Tillerico, who's a member

939
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:13,760
Speaker 3: of the LGBTQ Caucus, responded to a question about trans

940
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:15,320
Speaker 3: athletes like this.

941
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 6: I think it's interesting. I've been in this race for

942
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 6: five days and I've had a lot of interviews with

943
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:22,839
Speaker 6: national media. No one's ever asked me about the cost

944
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 6: of housing. No one's asked me about the cost of

945
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 6: prescription drugs, no one's asking me about the cost of childcare.

946
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:30,880
Speaker 6: The only thing the media wants to ask me about

947
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 6: are trans athletes. And so what I would say is

948
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 6: that the only minority destroying this country is the billionaires.

949
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 6: Trans people are one percent of the population. Undocumented people

950
00:51:42,400 --> 00:51:45,400
Speaker 6: are one percent of the population. Muslims are one percent

951
00:51:45,400 --> 00:51:48,200
Speaker 6: of the population. We are all focused on the wrong

952
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 6: one percent. Trans people aren't taking away our healthcare. Undocumented

953
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 6: people aren't defunding our schools. Muslims aren't cutting taxes for

954
00:51:57,080 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 6: themselves and their rich friends. It's the billionaires and their

955
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:02,880
Speaker 6: pub with politicians, and so we need not only the

956
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 6: media but all of us to focus on the real

957
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 6: problem at hand.

958
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:11,800
Speaker 3: Hey, it appeared like this was effective messaging.

959
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:13,839
Speaker 2: That's a good response. Yeah.

960
00:52:13,960 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 4: Yeah.

961
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 7: The only dangerous minority is a rich It has consistently

962
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 7: actually been a popular yeah messaging. The Democrats have nonetheless

963
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 7: shied away from.

964
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, because that's who donates money to them.

965
00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:29,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, because they like that. It's the only minority they liked.

966
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 4: Because many of them are rach Yeah, and others wish

967
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:32,759
Speaker 4: to be.

968
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 3: Tallarico supports regulating AI universal health care, term limits for

969
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:40,920
Speaker 3: Congress and it Spreme Court justices, halting Israel's illegal settlements,

970
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 3: restoring the talking only filibuster, and banning gerrymandering, and establishing

971
00:52:46,280 --> 00:52:53,919
Speaker 3: independent redistricting. Tallary participated in the Texas Democrats protests against redistricting,

972
00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 3: both in like twenty twenty one and last year in

973
00:52:56,719 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five, where they fled Texas on holiday for

974
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 3: a while. On his campaign website, he talks about advocating

975
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:07,239
Speaker 3: reform to make legal immigration easier, in creating pathways to

976
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 3: legalization for undocumented immigrants already long present, as well as

977
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 3: spouses and dreamers. Part of his immigration policy reads, quote

978
00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 3: prioritize the deportation of criminals, gang members, and human traffickers,

979
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:24,320
Speaker 3: not our neighbors who contribute to our communities, pay taxes,

980
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:27,720
Speaker 3: impose no threat to our safety unquote. Part of where

981
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 3: this sort of language I think falls apart is that

982
00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:35,760
Speaker 3: when the Trump administration claims that it's deporting gang members

983
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:40,280
Speaker 3: and criminals like what we saw with people sent to Seacott,

984
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:43,560
Speaker 3: that also includes regular people. That also includes our neighbors.

985
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:46,760
Speaker 3: And I think that is one slight fault in this messaging.

986
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 3: It's going to be interesting with him running in the

987
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:51,680
Speaker 3: general now, you know in Texas where the border is

988
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:55,400
Speaker 3: a big issue there, and a lot of his immigration

989
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 3: stuff definitely is not going to at least currently is

990
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 3: not as far to the left as some other progressive Democrats,

991
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 3: and this is something that he is currently being pushed

992
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 3: on especially after winning. Progressive advocates are pushing him on

993
00:54:09,719 --> 00:54:13,400
Speaker 3: ice specifically, as well as some stuff on Israel and Gaza.

994
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:16,600
Speaker 3: Tallerco is advocated to stop the sale of quote unquote

995
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:20,759
Speaker 3: offensive weapons to Israel while still funding the Iron Dome

996
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:23,399
Speaker 3: and defensive weapons. Talked about trying to find a way

997
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:26,480
Speaker 3: to make sure that defense weapons cannot be used offensively.

998
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:30,880
Speaker 3: But he does recognize that Gaza is an extremely important

999
00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 3: issue and said in an interview quote one of the

1000
00:54:33,320 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 3: primary reasons the Democratic Party lost young voters in particular

1001
00:54:36,200 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 3: last election was our party's failure to recognize the moral

1002
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:41,440
Speaker 3: disaster in Gaza. And I hope that we have leaders

1003
00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:44,120
Speaker 3: who recognize that mistake. I think that's all I need

1004
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 3: to say of regarding that the generals not until November,

1005
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 3: and if it is a Cornyn, that will be a

1006
00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:56,239
Speaker 3: much harder race, considering he's an incumbent versus Paxton, who

1007
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 3: has a lot of avenues for attack. For someone like

1008
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:01,520
Speaker 3: tall Rico who can lean on his like a Christian

1009
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:04,799
Speaker 3: charm to it attract voters both in rural areas as

1010
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:06,839
Speaker 3: well as lean on his support among Hispanic voters, as

1011
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:10,160
Speaker 3: demonstrated in the primary. Mia, you have one final thing

1012
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:15,600
Speaker 3: to add based on the primary elections in North Carolina. Yeah, yeah,

1013
00:55:15,640 --> 00:55:17,759
Speaker 3: there were a bunch of primary elections in North Carolina.

1014
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:20,399
Speaker 3: And I'm mentioning this because there was a series of

1015
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 3: North Carolina Democrats who voted with Republicans to pass anti

1016
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:27,759
Speaker 3: trans legislation over a veto from the governor, and also

1017
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 3: voted with them on really horrifying like pro ice legislation,

1018
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:37,840
Speaker 3: and those people lost by cartoon margins. We are talking

1019
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,680
Speaker 3: margins that start at thirty percent go to forty percent,

1020
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 3: and one of these people lost their race by fifty percent.

1021
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 4: Jeez.

1022
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 3: So the anti trans candidates and the like I am

1023
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:51,640
Speaker 3: pro ice racist candidates lost by like bath party numbers,

1024
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:54,680
Speaker 3: which which I think is actually very encouraging because I

1025
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:57,040
Speaker 3: think it's a sign of where people are right now,

1026
00:55:57,080 --> 00:56:00,200
Speaker 3: where people are going. Even as the state is trying

1027
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:03,239
Speaker 3: to do anti transperpression, this has become a thing that

1028
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 3: is enough where if you are willing to vote for

1029
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:09,879
Speaker 3: this shit and make a bunch of trans people stuff

1030
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 3: for you will lose by You will lose by forty

1031
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 3: in a primary. Unbelievable.

1032
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:25,319
Speaker 7: Primaries tend to include more informed, politically engage voters, and

1033
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:28,239
Speaker 7: that it's one of the things that engages people most

1034
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:29,840
Speaker 7: right now, specifically the ice stuff.

1035
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:34,319
Speaker 2: It's also more ideologically motivated voters, and the right has

1036
00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:36,520
Speaker 2: made the far right has made use of this for

1037
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 2: decades to push the more moderate actual politicians stuff for

1038
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:44,440
Speaker 2: the Republican Party further right, because you can't win primaries

1039
00:56:44,440 --> 00:56:48,239
Speaker 2: without getting like appealing to the most extreme of them,

1040
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 2: and there has not up until very recently been that

1041
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:54,880
Speaker 2: kind of success with like far left positions. Not that

1042
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:57,759
Speaker 2: I think basic respect for trans people ought to be

1043
00:56:57,800 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 2: far left, but it's clearly not a centrist dim position. Yeah, yeah, yeah, apparently,

1044
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:04,719
Speaker 2: And I think that this is good. I think it's

1045
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 2: it's a smart way to influence the direction of the party.

1046
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:09,359
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah.

1047
00:57:09,640 --> 00:57:11,319
Speaker 3: I want to close with the there's a slogan from

1048
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:14,760
Speaker 3: Chile that gets used in social movements constantly that goes

1049
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 3: roughly like Chile is where neiliberalism was born, and we're

1050
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:20,800
Speaker 3: going to kill it here. And I think this is

1051
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:23,560
Speaker 3: sort of the start of potentially that in North Carolina,

1052
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 3: where well, this isn't the start, but hopefully we're seeing

1053
00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:29,480
Speaker 3: like the culmination of a whole bunch of ways of

1054
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:34,040
Speaker 3: activism and organizing immobilization that can kill this kind of

1055
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 3: anti trans politics in the place where it was born,

1056
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 3: the first bathroom bill.

1057
00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:40,600
Speaker 7: So if you would like to email us with some

1058
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:44,320
Speaker 7: tips on stories, you can do so at cool Zone

1059
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:47,920
Speaker 7: Tips at proton dot me that it's not the email address.

1060
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:51,360
Speaker 4: To plug your book or ask if you could be

1061
00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:54,440
Speaker 4: on behind the baskets and if you do that, I

1062
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:55,200
Speaker 4: will block you.

1063
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 3: Put at your ends, girl on your couch. We reported

1064
00:57:59,120 --> 00:57:59,600
Speaker 3: the news.

1065
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 2: We reported the news.

1066
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:09,640
Speaker 1: It could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.

1067
00:58:09,800 --> 00:58:12,880
Speaker 1: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website

1068
00:58:12,920 --> 00:58:16,520
Speaker 1: coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app,

1069
00:58:16,600 --> 00:58:20,160
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. We can

1070
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:22,520
Speaker 1: now find sources for it Could Happen here, listed directly

1071
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:24,840
Speaker 1: in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.