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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing out song.

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Speaker 4: We're saying it's a cash touchdown that we see most

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Speaker 4: gamblers when they go to gamble, but they go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big Banks, I'm all banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate kabai.

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Speaker 3: If you want to back, and we are underway, Welcome

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Speaker 3: into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by Fan Duel.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Brendan Glasheen. Today's episode Week seventeen, NFL

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Speaker 3: Best Bets fourteen Games Slate Sunday, and of course Monday

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Speaker 3: Night Football Great Matchup Buffalo in Cincinnati.

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Speaker 1: Joining the pod this week Usual Suspects.

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Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson, who comes from his bunker down location in

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Speaker 3: parts unknown.

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Speaker 1: It is not Seattle Island.

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Speaker 3: Looks like audio director Matt Mitchell's basement, but that is

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Speaker 3: not where he is. Brandon's here Jill in his usual spot,

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Speaker 3: Jill Gallant, he hosts the Touchdown show at Action Network.

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Speaker 3: And we've got Anthony Debundo back this week. He's in

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Speaker 3: for Luke Swain Vegas refund. Luke is actually on a

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Speaker 3: real island, He's not on the virtual Seattle Island. Luke

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Speaker 3: is on a vacation and he much deserves so we

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Speaker 3: missed Luke this week, but Dubundo thanks as always for

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Speaker 3: stopping by. Folks Best Bets episode needs to bounce back

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Speaker 3: Week three and seven. Last week, we are seventy five,

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Speaker 3: sixty six and four for the season. Before we jump

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Speaker 3: into the picks, we've got a new segment here on

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Speaker 3: the pod. If you joined us last week, you heard it,

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Speaker 3: joined by Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams, the

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Speaker 3: engine behind our Action Labs database. He picks apart the numbers,

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Speaker 3: the research, the trends. He shares his favorite stats and

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Speaker 3: trends heading into the weekend. Evan take it away.

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Speaker 5: Please, thanks guys, this is my favorite two weeks of

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Speaker 5: the year. You've got scenarios, correlated parlays, season leaders, get

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Speaker 5: the playoff machine up. It's just absolutely glorious. So right now,

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Speaker 5: I think the right thing to do is to start

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Speaker 5: with a quick state of the league, maybe some overarching

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Speaker 5: angles for this season. Underdogs are hitting it about fifty

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Speaker 5: five percent against the spread this season. That's the best

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Speaker 5: start for dogs in fifteen years. But if you look

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Speaker 5: at money line underdogs weeks one through ten, they hit

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Speaker 5: it forty percent since Week ten twenty seven percent, so

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Speaker 5: a thirteen percent drop off in money line underdogs, and

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Speaker 5: that kind of correlates. You've seen favorites of a touchdown

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Speaker 5: or more hit it thirty nine percent this year. That's

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Speaker 5: the worst start for them in twenty years. With unders

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Speaker 5: and underdogs both showing success this year, it's no shock

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Speaker 5: to anyone to hear that rookie quarterbacks and backup quarterbacks

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Speaker 5: are cashing for betters. Rookies this year are eleven and

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Speaker 5: nine straight up and thirteen and seven against the spread

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Speaker 5: entering Week seventeen, and backup quarterbacks, and you can have

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Speaker 5: an argument about what actually a backup quarterback is, but

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Speaker 5: based off what I am marking them off as they

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Speaker 5: are thirty five and thirty eight straight up, but a

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Speaker 5: promising forty two twenty nine to two against the spread

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Speaker 5: this week. You're looking at teams like Tennessee, Arizona, Atlanta,

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Speaker 5: San Francisco, and the Rams as possible backup quarterback situations,

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Speaker 5: among many others, with Miami as well Chicago Bears justin

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Speaker 5: fields and rushing yards. He said he wants the record

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Speaker 5: right now. He has oney and eleven rushing yards. The

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Speaker 5: leader is Lamar Jackson at twelve oh six, so he

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Speaker 5: has some rushing day facing the Bears. You also have

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Speaker 5: the Lions, who are now about a six point favorite.

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Speaker 5: Detroit hasn't closed minus six or higher since October twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 5: and they haven't closed minus seven are higher since September

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Speaker 5: twenty eighteen. We might be in for some history and

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Speaker 5: if you want to look at some motivation for Patrick Homes,

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Speaker 5: he needs seven hundred and fifty eight passing yards over

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Speaker 5: his last two games to break the single season record.

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Speaker 5: Another motivational factor. Justin Jefferson has seventeen hundred and fifty

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Speaker 5: six receiving yards. He is two hundred and nine yards

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Speaker 5: away from breaking Calvin Johnson's record for most receiving yards

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Speaker 5: in a season with one hundred and thirty three receiving

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Speaker 5: yards last Saturday. He's also on pace for a two

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Speaker 5: thousand yard season. He needs two hundred and forty four

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Speaker 5: yards to get there. Miami Dolphins, let's talk about the

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Speaker 5: myth of Teddy Covers. Bridgewater is forty three and twenty

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Speaker 5: two against the spread sixty six percent in his career.

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Speaker 5: He is the fifth most profitable quarterback against the spread

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Speaker 5: in the last twenty years, Teddy covers, but since twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty Teddy not so covers is actually just fifteen and

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Speaker 5: fifteen against the spread. New Orleans Saints Andy Dalton has

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Speaker 5: lost his last thirteen starts straight up versus teams allowing

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Speaker 5: fewer than twenty one points per game. Since twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 5: Dalton is five and twenty five straight up in that spot.

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Speaker 5: The Eagles may have Hurts, they might have Minshew, but

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Speaker 5: either way, they have a great defense.

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Speaker 4: Here's a fun one.

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Speaker 5: Sam Darnold has faced Tom Brady three times in his

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Speaker 5: period with the Panthers and the Jets. He's oh and

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Speaker 5: three straight up and oh and three against the spread,

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Speaker 5: losing by a combined score of one hundred and twelve

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Speaker 5: to twenty, failing to cover by nineteen point three points

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Speaker 5: per game. The Texans have defeated the Jaguars in nine

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Speaker 5: consecutive games straight up, dating back to twenty eighteen. Over

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Speaker 5: the last eight years, the Texans are fifteen and two

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Speaker 5: straight up versus the Jaguars, and Davis Mills two to

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Speaker 5: oh straight up and against the spread versus the Jaguars,

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Speaker 5: He's two nineteen and one straight up versus all other teams.

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Speaker 5: How about this one. Derek Carr currently leads d NFL

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Speaker 5: in intersceptions with fourteen. Carr was benched for weeks seventeen

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Speaker 5: and eighteen and will not throw another pass this season.

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Speaker 5: Behind Car and interceptions is Matt Ryan with thirteen, Josh

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Speaker 5: Allen with thirteen, Davis Mills with thirteen. Carr was thirty

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Speaker 5: to one to lead the league in interceptions. No longer

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Speaker 5: nobody beats Aaron Rodgers at lambeau Field. He is twenty

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Speaker 5: seven and four straight up and twenty one to ten

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Speaker 5: against the spread. At home in December or later in

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Speaker 5: the regular season. He's won nine straight starts in this spot.

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Speaker 5: Bill's Bengals. This is the game everyone's been waiting for,

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Speaker 5: and the Bengals have some streaks on the line. They've

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Speaker 5: won and covered seventh straight. They've done that for the

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Speaker 5: first time since nineteen seventy. Burrow is nineteen and three

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Speaker 5: against the spread in his last twenty two starts. The

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Speaker 5: Bengals are twenty and three in their last twenty three games.

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Speaker 5: In the last twenty years, only one other team has

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Speaker 5: won end covered seventh straight and been listed as a

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Speaker 5: home underdog. Washington and RG three in the twenty twelve

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Speaker 5: thirteen playoffs. At RG three lost the game twenty four

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Speaker 5: to fourteen, but got hurt midway through the game, which

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Speaker 5: brought on Kirk Cousins. All Right, guys, thanks a lot,

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Speaker 5: enjoy Week seventeen. I'll be back for Week eighteen and

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Speaker 5: the playoffs. We're in the stretch run. Let's get that

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Speaker 5: sh money, says Ravon.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Evan, thank you very much, great stuff, and without

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Speaker 3: further ado, let's jump into the best bets for Week seventeen.

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Speaker 3: As a reminder, you can find the picks in the

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Speaker 3: Action Network app.

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Speaker 1: Action Network NFL picks.

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Speaker 3: The Sunday six pack with Stucky and Raybon is also there.

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson your first pick. I know the picks ahead here.

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Speaker 3: These guys have not consulted one another though, however, But

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Speaker 3: this is a pick you gave out earlier in the week.

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Speaker 1: It's a total.

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Speaker 6: What do you got, Yeah, I'm going to take a

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Speaker 6: total for Miami and New England. Give me the under

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Speaker 6: here under forty one and a half. I grabbed this

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Speaker 6: at forty three earlier in the week. I still like

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Speaker 6: it at forty one and a half. Anywhere in the

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Speaker 6: forties really so, Brendon, you talked about this with me

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Speaker 6: on Sunday night in the pot cast. This is a

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Speaker 6: fade of Miami's offense. In Miami's offense is faded fast

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Speaker 6: over the last month, even more with Tua Tagovailo out.

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Speaker 2: So last six.

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Speaker 6: Weeks, Miami's offense by DVA twenty seventh in the NFL.

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Speaker 6: So that has really plummeted here. And if you look

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Speaker 6: at the games where Tua has either played with concussion

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Speaker 6: issues or has missed those games, for those games, Miami

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Speaker 6: is twenty fifth in offensive DVA and that included earlier

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Speaker 6: games before this late swoon. Take those games out, Miami's third.

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Speaker 6: They're number one in passing, So this is a huge deal.

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Speaker 6: The offense is cratered lately, but as we talked about,

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Speaker 6: while that's been happening, Miami's defense has quietly gotten pretty

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Speaker 6: good here.

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Speaker 2: Bradley Chubb came over. The pass rush is better.

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Speaker 6: They're actually a top quarter of the league over the

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Speaker 6: last six weeks, Top twelve against the run, top twelve

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Speaker 6: against the pass. So Miami quietly has we knew the

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Speaker 6: offense was bad, but they kind of stayed to flow

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Speaker 6: with this defense. Well, we already know in New England

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Speaker 6: we are no. New England is a great defensive team

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Speaker 6: not scoring much. We don't need to make that case.

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Speaker 6: So now we've got two of those teams, and we've

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Speaker 6: got Bill Belichick, who didn't know what was coming Week

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Speaker 6: one when these teams played, but now has had three

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Speaker 6: to four months since then to prepare for this unique

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Speaker 6: Miami offense. I think Belichick will have some ideas up asleep.

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Speaker 6: And don't forget they held the Dolphins only twenty in

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Speaker 6: Week one. Anyway, in hindsight, the way this offense was

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Speaker 6: steamrolling early, that looks pretty good. So that Week one

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Speaker 6: game only twenty seven points. There, Miami. For all the

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Speaker 6: hype about the offense, they've only scored twenty one or

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Speaker 6: less nine times out of the fifteen games this year.

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Speaker 6: And we know that offense is falling tu us out.

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Speaker 6: And then just look at some of the late season

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Speaker 6: division trends. Unders win the totals forty to forty seven,

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Speaker 6: fifty six percent of the under, if the home favorite

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Speaker 6: is seven or less fifty eight percent of the under,

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Speaker 6: and then of course we're in Foxborough, so looking windy.

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Speaker 6: Look at the chance of rain or snow, for Sunday.

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Speaker 6: That only hew So I like the under here forty

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Speaker 6: one and a half. I'd play anywhere in the forties thing.

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Speaker 2: Get up.

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Speaker 3: I'd play over half a poncho for someone on this

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Speaker 3: podcast who might be in Foxborough at the game on Sunday,

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Speaker 3: not looking forward to the inclement weather. But Bill Belichick

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Speaker 3: might be, because weather now is a real thing for

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Speaker 3: Bill Belichick to get wins these days in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: Patriots also the worst offensive team in the first quarter

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Speaker 3: this year. I was looking at the first half total

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Speaker 3: sitting at twenty slight juice to the under, even money

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Speaker 3: plus one hundred or so juice to the over. Pardon me,

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Speaker 3: plus one hundred to under twenty first half. Brandon's on

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Speaker 3: the full game under Patriots Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: Jill, what's up? What do you got? First pick?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to take a big favorite rate off

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Speaker 4: the bat, Brandon. I'm going to take the forty nine

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Speaker 4: Ers minus nine and a half versus the inept woeful Raiders.

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Speaker 4: I just think right now we're making a little too

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Speaker 4: big of a deal about the mister irrelevant aspect of

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Speaker 4: feeling good about laying points with a rookie, you know,

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Speaker 4: on the road, forget about deserve. This offense and defensive

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Speaker 4: combo is pretty much just a set and forget mainly

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Speaker 4: because when you look at the Raiders defense, they're already

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Speaker 4: gonna be missing some guys key that helped stop the run.

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Speaker 4: Chandler Jones will be out. Denzel Perriman's been out, He's

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Speaker 4: going to remain to be out. So I think Christian

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Speaker 4: McCaffrey could end up having a huge game because the

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Speaker 4: Raiders are last versus running backs and pass defensive dv

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Speaker 4: away and their twenty second in defensive rushing dv away.

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Speaker 4: So that's pretty much the forty nine ers bread and

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Speaker 4: butter when it comes to their offense. I also think

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Speaker 4: that it's not a coincidence that the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 4: are eight to oh straight up and seven to one

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Speaker 4: against the spread with McCaffrey as the full time starter

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Speaker 4: in this offense, they're winning games by an average of

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Speaker 4: sixteen points six points per game. Six of those eight

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Speaker 4: games are won by double digits. Not to mention, Deebo

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Speaker 4: could be back too. He stated to come back for practice.

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Speaker 4: He didn't practice on Wednesday, but we'll be able to

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Speaker 4: see a little bit more if he's back. It's just

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Speaker 4: only going to add more gravy for the forty nine

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Speaker 4: ers train. For reference, though, this line has been crazy

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Speaker 4: all week, Like it moved started at four and a half,

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Speaker 4: moved to six, and then it creeped up to ten

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Speaker 4: and a half once Derek Carr got removed as the

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Speaker 4: starter and Jared Stidham is now the starter, and then

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Speaker 4: then it's back down to nine and a half. So

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Speaker 4: I really couldn't talk myself off of it once it

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Speaker 4: got back under ten. And for Stidham, you don't want

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Speaker 4: to be making your first career start against this forty

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Speaker 4: nine ers defense, like he's only come in as a

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Speaker 4: backup in his time. You're a Patriots Van Brendan, so

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Speaker 4: you're more than aware of the Jared Stidham experience. But

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Speaker 4: it cut His career stats are kind of indicative of

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Speaker 4: what he is, you know, sixty four pass attempts, fifty

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Speaker 4: five percent completion rates, two touchdowns, four interceptions, and the

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Speaker 4: forty nine ers are pretty much going to take away

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Speaker 4: what is a quarterback's best friend, which is the running

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Speaker 4: back and passes over the middle, and the forty nine

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Speaker 4: Ers ranked first defensively in both categories. So while I

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Speaker 4: think again. Taking a nine and a half on the road,

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Speaker 4: it's going to probably be a slow burn. It may

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Speaker 4: take it til the fourth quarter to seal the deal.

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Speaker 4: But I think the Niners win this game by double digits.

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Speaker 4: And since the start of last season, the Niners have

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Speaker 4: favored by nine or more in four games. They're four

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Speaker 4: and oh straight up and three and one against the spread.

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Speaker 4: The most recent example was versus the Cardinals in Mexico

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Speaker 4: and they won by twenty eight points.

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Speaker 3: Fascinating spot for Josh McDaniels to the head coach, which

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Speaker 3: the Davis family has advocated he'll be back. They're giving

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Speaker 3: him some time more than the coach in Denver. We'll

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Speaker 3: get to Denver I thing the later in the podcast.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, Jared Stidham, there's some things in the last

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Speaker 3: few years that have offended me as a fan of

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Speaker 3: the New England Patriots. And when COVID first started in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty, when I was told, yeah, stid the kid,

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Speaker 3: he's the next guy for Brady, Bill Belichick went out

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Speaker 3: inside Cam Newton and this guy couldn't get on the

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Speaker 3: field ahead of Cam Newton. And we all saw how

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Speaker 3: that experiment worked out in Foxboro. Du Bundo, welcome back.

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Speaker 3: What he got for us first pick for week seventeen.

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Speaker 7: It's not pretty Almost none of my picks this week are.

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Speaker 7: But I like the Chicago Bears plus six on the

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Speaker 7: road against Detroit. And when this line first opened around

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Speaker 7: three and a half four and the look ahead lines,

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Speaker 7: I wasn't really planning to bet the Bears, but I

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Speaker 7: think what's happened in the last week since that one

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Speaker 7: the Bears. You know, both teams got destroyed last week,

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Speaker 7: both teams losing by twenty plus, but the line moved

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Speaker 7: about two points to six now, and I just think

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Speaker 7: it's a classic example of a team in a must

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Speaker 7: win spot at home. Everybody's expecting the Lions to bounce back.

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Speaker 7: Everybody's still on the Lions train, even though they got

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Speaker 7: exposed last week in Carolina, and everyone's expecting to bounce

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Speaker 7: back and have a good showing here. The Bears have

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Speaker 7: no motivation, they're tanking for the draft pick. There's no

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Speaker 7: reason for them to go out and win this game.

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Speaker 7: I think it's all over baked into the number and

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Speaker 7: that these two teams are actually pretty close to one another.

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Speaker 7: I mean, they did play not that long ago, and

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Speaker 7: the Chicago was winning late in the third quarter until

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Speaker 7: the Justin Fields picked six that let the Lions right

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Speaker 7: back into the game. And they were down two touchdowns,

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Speaker 7: you know, in that game, so they had to come back.

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Speaker 7: And the spread in that game would suggest that, you know,

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Speaker 7: this line's gotten way out of hand because Detroit was

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Speaker 7: only a slight favorite in that game. So now it's

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Speaker 7: six and neither defense is any good. I know we

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Speaker 7: talked earlier this year and I said the Lions defense

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Speaker 7: is thirty second in the league and they're not going

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Speaker 7: to consistently be that bad. Well, they have improved, and

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Speaker 7: that's just kind of with variants. You know, some offenses

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Speaker 7: ran some turnover problems on them. They have been a

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Speaker 7: little bit better. But let's just take it face value

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Speaker 7: for the season you exclude turnovers. This is the thirty

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Speaker 7: first and the thirty second ranked defense in the NFL

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Speaker 7: the Bears and the Lions, and the Bears have actually

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Speaker 7: been a top ten run offense. So I think that

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Speaker 7: the path is there for Fields and Montgomery to find

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Speaker 7: success on the ground. Limit the possessions in this game,

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Speaker 7: keep Goff on the sideline, and continue to gash this

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Speaker 7: overrated Lions defensive line that got very fortunate and has

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Speaker 7: not been very good against the run really all seasons.

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Speaker 7: So I think the Bears find success on the ground here. Yes,

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Speaker 7: the Bears secondary probably also gets torched. But given the

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Speaker 7: back door risk, and just given all of the risk

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Speaker 7: here laying six with Detroit just because they need to

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Speaker 7: win the game, it's way too any points. I like

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Speaker 7: the Bears plus six.

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Speaker 3: And your point small favorite in that matchup early in

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Speaker 3: the season, midway through the year, Bears minus three at home.

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Speaker 1: That was a tight game.

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Speaker 3: Then Chicago outscored them fourteen zip in the third thirty

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Speaker 3: one to thirty, Detroit winners. And there was only one

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Speaker 3: turnover in that game one and it was the.

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Speaker 7: Justin fields in her set let them right back into

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Speaker 7: the game. It was twenty four to ten. You know,

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Speaker 7: I think it was early fourth quarter, maybe a late

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Speaker 7: third quarter when that game turned. And I misspoke earlier

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Speaker 7: I said lines were favored, But yes, the Bears were

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Speaker 7: favored in that game. So now you have a nine

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Speaker 7: point swing. The Lions really that much better than they

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Speaker 7: were a month ago. I know the perception on the

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Speaker 7: Lions is that much better, but I don't think they

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Speaker 7: were as bad as the first eight games indicator, I

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Speaker 7: don't think they've been as good as the last six either.

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Speaker 2: So here we are.

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Speaker 3: Score was noted at ten. That leads into our next

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Speaker 3: round of picks. Brandon Anderson, you are going to go

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Speaker 3: to the other side here, but in a different way.

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Speaker 6: I am. Yeah, it's only Appropriatedbundo and I have yet

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Speaker 6: to be on one of these podcasts together, but we

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Speaker 6: love to go.

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Speaker 2: Had to had sol our first the time together.

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Speaker 7: It's just the second time, is it the second?

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Speaker 2: And the first time was.

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Speaker 7: When I backed the Lions against the Packers.

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Speaker 2: Well, I am great.

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Speaker 7: And they got very fortunate to do so, but that

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Speaker 7: was the start of the Lions luck turning around.

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Speaker 6: Well, I'm going to back the Lions here, but like

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Speaker 6: you said, Brandon, I'm gonna back them with a twist here.

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Speaker 6: So I actually think du Bundo and I are on

348
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Speaker 6: a pretty similar page here. I do like the Lions.

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Speaker 6: I think that they do win the game here. The

350
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Speaker 6: Bears are actually since that game a month ago, the

351
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Speaker 6: offense has gotten a lot worse lately. Justin Field's picked

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Speaker 6: up an injury. I think it's kind of playing through

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Speaker 6: some nagging stuff. They're down only fifteen and a half

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Speaker 6: points a game in the last four games. So earlier

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Speaker 6: we were riding Bears overs for a while. That's been

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Speaker 6: out now because it's a little more unreliable. But I

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Speaker 6: was one of the people in the action mush last

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Speaker 6: week on the Lions. I was one of the people

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Speaker 6: that got steamrolled in that one. I'm a little scarred

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Speaker 6: by the Lions defense.

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Speaker 2: So I like Detroit here.

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Speaker 6: If I was going to play aside, i'd play a

363
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Speaker 6: Lions cover a Lions team total over. I trust the

364
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Speaker 6: offense with Amana Ross Saint Brown. They've been the number

365
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Speaker 6: five offense by DV Away. They're averaging over twenty eight

366
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Speaker 6: a game. The Bears have allowed twenty five or more

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Speaker 6: eight straight games. This Bears defense is terrible. The Lions

368
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Speaker 6: are going to score at home.

369
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Speaker 2: Where they're good.

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Speaker 6: What I don't like is I don't like the second half.

371
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Speaker 6: I don't want the back door. Anthony mentioned that I

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Speaker 6: don't like the back door. So I'm gonna just get

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Speaker 6: my first half money and get out of here. Give

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Speaker 6: me a Lions minus three and a half just in

375
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Speaker 6: the first half. So I like the offensive score. I

376
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:40,159
Speaker 6: trust the Lions early. When you get embarrassed like that

377
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Speaker 6: against the Panthers. Look Dan Campbell, like we've watched this

378
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Speaker 6: team that the kneecap biting team. This is exact sort

379
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Speaker 6: of team that gets whipped into shape ball week and

380
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Speaker 6: responds with pride early the next game. Set the tone,

381
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Speaker 6: run the ball, block a little harder, all that good stuff.

382
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Speaker 6: Get things going early. And you look at some of

383
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Speaker 6: the splits here. Bears defense by DVA dead last in

384
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Speaker 6: the first quarter, Bears defense in the second quarter, dead last.

385
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Speaker 6: Lions defense in the second half, dead last, but average

386
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Speaker 6: in the first half. So give me the terrible defense

387
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Speaker 6: Bears in the first half. Give me the quick early

388
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Speaker 6: strike lines to kind of get things going. Set the tone,

389
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Speaker 6: leave the back door open. I don't care, Dbundle, you

390
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Speaker 6: figure your pickout after that. I'll have my money already.

391
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Speaker 2: At the half.

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Speaker 6: If you look at just first half ATS, Lions are

393
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Speaker 6: eleven and four against the spread this year. The Bears

394
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Speaker 6: are five and ten in the first half ATS. So

395
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Speaker 6: I do wish that it was under three. I don't

396
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Speaker 6: love getting the hook there, but I'd rather take the

397
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Speaker 6: three and a half than the full game six. I

398
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Speaker 6: don't care about the back door. Give my money and

399
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Speaker 6: get out of their lines first half.

400
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Speaker 3: Wow, Yeah, the defense is what You're right. Those DVA numbers,

401
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,800
Speaker 3: those the defensive numbers to bundo are what do the

402
00:19:57,720 --> 00:19:59,480
Speaker 3: Bears in in the first half? You got a thought

403
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Speaker 3: though on the the plus six angles.

404
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Speaker 1: Still yeah, I.

405
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Speaker 7: Mean the Bears offense has looked a lot worse in

406
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Speaker 7: the last month. But yeah, and yes it did coincide

407
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Speaker 7: with the injury. But I'll push back and I'll say, like,

408
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 7: look who they play. I mean they played the Jets, Bills,

409
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Speaker 7: and the Eagles in the last month, and they played

410
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Speaker 7: the Jets with Simeon, So, like, I think that there's

411
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Speaker 7: some evidence today that like Field is just gonna run

412
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Speaker 7: all over them. I think that's what's gonna happen here.

413
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Speaker 7: I mean he did in the last game. He ran

414
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Speaker 7: for twohund and fifty eight yards in that first meeting.

415
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Speaker 7: So I'm not sure that you know it's gonna be

416
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Speaker 7: a convoy of long runs like the Panthers ran off

417
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Speaker 7: last week. I don't foresee it being that extreme. Again,

418
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Speaker 7: it can't possibly be that bad, but I do worry

419
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Speaker 7: that the Lions will will not get enough stops here.

420
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Speaker 6: Yeah, what's interesting you and I were texting about this

421
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 6: game a while ago, and you you mentioned as you

422
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Speaker 6: were talking about liking the Bears here. Yeah, you know,

423
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Speaker 6: Lion's up by seven of the half, Bears end up

424
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Speaker 6: losing by three. I think we kind of both expect

425
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,920
Speaker 6: the same thing here. I'm terrified with justin the fields.

426
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,919
Speaker 6: I on no part of the second half experience. But

427
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Speaker 6: I think I like the Lions enough early in the

428
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 6: game and then just get out of there, get the defense,

429
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,800
Speaker 6: do whatever they're gonna do in the second half. I

430
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 6: do think the Lions win. I still kind of like

431
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 6: lines to make the playoffs. But yeah, you're right to

432
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Speaker 6: fear the defense. And to what you said about the

433
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 6: Bears offense, I think is dot on. But I trust

434
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 6: the Lions to get the statement early and I'll just

435
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 6: take my money and watch the second half.

436
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 3: And the nature is so the nature's so different too. Right,

437
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 3: You're in Carolina, record low temperatures in Carolina. You go

438
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,399
Speaker 3: back to your building indoors, your head coach shaking hands

439
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 3: with the other head coach. Campbell's saying, oh, that was

440
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 3: a good old ass kicking. It feels like if he's

441
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 3: got these guys on board, which to it feels like

442
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 3: they getting off to a good start is crucial, and

443
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 3: that's the way Brandon foresees this matchup going Jill second pick.

444
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've been of a coin flip game. I feel

445
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 4: like you can make a case for both sides, but

446
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the better team. I'm gonna take

447
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 4: Bill's minus one and a half versus the Bengals. Look,

448
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 4: I know the Bengals are the hottest team in the NFL.

449
00:21:57,880 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 4: A lot of people are gonna point to them saying, look,

450
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 4: they beat Kansas City three times in a year. The

451
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 4: Chiefs aren't the Bills. Bills are way better than that.

452
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 4: I also think the Bills are Bengals rather than blessed

453
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 4: with a little bit of good luck recently. You know,

454
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 4: they're facing the Cleveland Browns when it's Deshaun Watson's second start.

455
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 4: You know, they're facing the cratering Buccaneers. You know they

456
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 4: almost blew it last week versus the Patriots. Like and

457
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 4: the Bills top five team and creating quarterback pressure and

458
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 4: we've seen that's how you beat the Bengals. And who's

459
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 4: now out right tackle Loe Collins out for the rest

460
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,920
Speaker 4: of the year with a torn acl The Bills also

461
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 4: just rise up when they're facing a tougher defense like

462
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,159
Speaker 4: than they do when they play like lesser teams. This

463
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 4: year and actually in his career, rather Josh Allen versus

464
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 4: defense is allowing under twenty one points per game fourteen

465
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 4: to six and one against the spread. The defensive injuries

466
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,159
Speaker 4: as well to Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. Now I

467
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 4: am seeing that like Henderson did come back last week,

468
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 4: but he only played like a handful of snaps. Hubbard

469
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 4: is expected back, but again it's a hamstring injury. You

470
00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 4: can't expect them to be fully back there. Those are

471
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 4: two key parts of their pass rush. So for me,

472
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 4: get I'm looking at the Bills, I think that this

473
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,919
Speaker 4: line probably should be closer to minus two and a half.

474
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 4: I feel like we're getting a little bit of a

475
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 4: bargain here at minus one and a half. I will

476
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 4: say that if you're looking for even just a little

477
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 4: bit more of a safer spot, you can get the

478
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 4: Bills money lined around minus one fifteen.

479
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 3: Bengals, as Jill said, hottest team in the league, and

480
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 3: they're covering two folks. They've covered twenty of their last

481
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 3: twenty three games, the most profitable team against the spread

482
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 3: of the NFL. Over the last two seasons that includes

483
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 3: the playoffs twenty six and ten, they've won and covered

484
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 3: seven straight going into this showdown. Should be good Monday

485
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 3: Night and we'll have more on that game folks next

486
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 3: week early next week with shows and Contented Action Network.

487
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: Because that's why I'm worth sinking your teeth into.

488
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 3: Best Monday Night game of the year, no question, coming

489
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 3: up Dubundo second best bet.

490
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 7: Yeah, there are three defenses that are top six in

491
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 7: both run defensive line stopping and pass defensive line stopping

492
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 7: based on PFF grades and on pass rush run block,

493
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 7: run stot win rates.

494
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 4: That's from Ben Baldwin.

495
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 7: Three of the three defensive lines are the Fooduff Eagles,

496
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 7: the San Francisco forty nine Ers, and the New York

497
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 7: Football Jets. And I like the New York Football Jets

498
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 7: minus one and a half against the Seattle Island Seahawks. Sorry, Brandon,

499
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 7: I know you you're getting ribbed from all sides for

500
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 7: your Seahawks love, but they have fallen off a cliff

501
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 7: and I think it's a good example of why, like

502
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 7: preseason priors do matter. And yes, Geno Smith has played

503
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 7: well and above expectations. But since the first five weeks

504
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 7: of the season, when he played like a top five quarterback,

505
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 7: he has not quite been the same and he's also

506
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 7: not the same win under pressure is his PFF grade

507
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 7: went under pressure sixty two more four turnover worth he

508
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 7: plays In the last three weeks, he's been struggling quite

509
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,479
Speaker 7: a bit, and the Jets are gonna get a lot

510
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 7: of pressure and they're going to stop the run, and

511
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 7: then you know, Dk metcalf is hard to stop. But

512
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 7: he'll be visiting Sauce Island this weekend, the real Island

513
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 7: Sauce Gardner out wide the corner for the Jets, who's

514
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 7: been a dominant rookie defender. I think the Jets will

515
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 7: be able to run on Seattle, and that is the

516
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 7: major key here.

517
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 4: Mike White.

518
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 7: I know everybody thinks he's great. I really I'm like

519
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 7: kind of skeptical on Mike White, but you watch him

520
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,439
Speaker 7: compared to Zach Wilson, it's a pretty stark difference. And

521
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 7: so I think Mike White can do enough to make

522
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 7: the short underneath throws that the Seattle defense will give

523
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 7: you and to keep them ahead of the Chaine just

524
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 7: running the ball I think the Jets and the Seahawks

525
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 7: season here and get the win. I'm laying minus one

526
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 7: and a half.

527
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 3: Seattle has lost three in a row straight up, six

528
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 3: consecutive games against the number. Gino Smith had never even

529
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 3: lost five straight games against the spread in his career

530
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 3: prior to last week. He still leaves the NFL in

531
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 3: completion percentage. But yes, it's to Bundo's point, Da Bundo's point.

532
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 1: The level of play has dropped off slightly, Brandon.

533
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 3: I guess we'll just go right to you here and

534
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 3: you can respond to the island. I mean you've already

535
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 3: been on record. The island is washed away.

536
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 6: Yeah, I've bend in Seattle Island. The island has taken

537
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 6: a watter. The island is under. I am not on

538
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 6: an island in a North Dakota bunker. Island is out

539
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 6: of here. I'm on this game too, except I'm gonna

540
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 6: add a little twist to this one as well. I

541
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 6: do like the Jets, but I'm gonna play the Jets

542
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 6: with and under. I'm gonna do the same game parlay

543
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 6: plus two thirty nine, So Jets minus one and a

544
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 6: half and the under forty two and a half together

545
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 6: So Seattle's defense, we talked a lot about them.

546
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 2: During the Island run when we made a lot.

547
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 6: Of money together. That defense was playing pretty well for

548
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 6: a while. We talked early in the year, like Debando said,

549
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 6: with the Lions, when you're that bad early, you can

550
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 6: really only kind of get better, like that's just how

551
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 6: defense goes well. Turns out the defense still wasn't very good.

552
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 6: They never learned how to tackle. You're back to twenty

553
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 6: ninth by DVA the last six weeks, and so that's

554
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 6: gonna help against the Jets. I agree, I'm not really

555
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,479
Speaker 6: super super in on Mike White, but I am in

556
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 6: on Mike White not being Zach Wilson, who's already been

557
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 6: announced as inactive this week. With Wilson, the Jets are

558
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 6: twenty seventh offense DV away. Without him, they're sixteenth. So

559
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 6: gave me an average sounding offense against a tear bowl defense.

560
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 6: The Seahawks offense is pretty similar to what the Jets

561
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:09,400
Speaker 6: are now, too, Like Debando said, the big difference here

562
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 6: is the Jets defense, and that's what really stood out.

563
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,959
Speaker 6: This line actually started out Seattle minus two and then

564
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 6: went all the way to Jets three, and I was like,

565
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,360
Speaker 6: oh man, am I going to have to go back

566
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 6: to the island? Is this my last stand on the island?

567
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 6: Now the island is underwater. We're done Seattle. I looked

568
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 6: into it. Three times this year. The Seahawks have played

569
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,640
Speaker 6: a top ten defense by DVA. That was the forty

570
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 6: nine Ers twice and then the Bucks one time. In

571
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,479
Speaker 6: those three games, Seahawks went down twenty one to three,

572
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 6: twenty one to three, and twenty to nothing. This offense,

573
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,439
Speaker 6: I don't think it's necessarily smoking mirrors. Even like you

574
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 6: mentioned the Gino Smith completion thing. It's not smoking merors,

575
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 6: but it's not necessarily Hey, Geno is elite.

576
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 2: Now Geno's completion is so high.

577
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 6: Because the main cannot and will not throw the ball

578
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 6: away and is taking sacks the whole game. And those

579
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 6: are negative plays too, just like in completions, interceptions, whatever.

580
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 6: So I think Seahawks really struggle to score here.

581
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 2: I if I.

582
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 6: Was gonna fully abandon the island and embrace it, I

583
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 6: needed the extra jew. So if I like the Jets

584
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 6: here to cover, I think it has to be because

585
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 6: I like the under because I think the Jets defense

586
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 6: really shows up. Last four, New York wins. They've covered

587
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 6: and gone under, and they've gone under forty two and

588
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 6: a half eight of their last ten games. Jets unders

589
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 6: are ten and five on the season home underdogs this

590
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 6: year in games I have a home underdog, the under

591
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 6: is sixty five percent for the season. That's not Jets,

592
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 6: that's all games across the season. So that's been a

593
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 6: really favorable trend.

594
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 2: So I think the.

595
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 6: Jets go to Seattle, Mike White and all and shut

596
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 6: this team down.

597
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 2: And I think du Bundo's right.

598
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 6: I think we end the season put Seattle Island out

599
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 6: of its misery for good. And I like the Jets

600
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 6: a little further too. I'm seeing some plus five hundred

601
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 6: to make the playoffs out there. We're in Seattle, they're

602
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 6: in Miami next week. We don't know if TUA will

603
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 6: play New York. Fans, don't give up on this thing.

604
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 6: I think we're still looking pretty solid. Do you win

605
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 6: both of those games? By five thirty eight dot com,

606
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 6: you're getting around ninety percent to.

607
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 2: Make the playoffs. I like the Jets to win here.

608
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 4: I like the playoff odds.

609
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 6: Give me the Jets cover and under forty two and

610
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 6: a half together plus two thirty nine.

611
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 3: So I guess the real twist on the Geno completion

612
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 3: percentage is he's just protecting himself. It's actually kind of

613
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 3: genius on his end for personally to keep his to

614
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 3: keep his numbers high and he can say I had

615
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 3: the best completion percentage in the NFL. Now will further

616
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 3: boost his resume as a backup quarterback or potentially a

617
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 3: starter in other markets if they choose to go there.

618
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 1: What do you say, Jill, you're hopping aboard here or what?

619
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 2: Yeah?

620
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 4: I think Brendan, it has to be a clean sweep.

621
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 4: I'm going to take Jets minus one and a half

622
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 4: as well, and again, superior defense and a fate of

623
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 4: Seahawks Island like I had Seahawks plus ten last week.

624
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 4: I was holding it down for you, Brandon, and it

625
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 4: felt dead. By the first quarter. We capsized. We were

626
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 4: overrun by water. And honestly, since the Seahawks have returned

627
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 4: from London, it's like their defense forgot to come back

628
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 4: with them because they're allowing twenty seven point six points

629
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 4: per game, their bottom five and rush defense per DV

630
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 4: away and they've lost for their last five and their

631
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 4: only win was over John Walford and the Rams, and

632
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 4: we all know where they're at in the stage of

633
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 4: the season. I also think it's a bigger deal that

634
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 4: Tyler Lockett is not playing for them. He's bigger for

635
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 4: that pass offense, and I think a lot of people

636
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 4: let on he was leading the team and first downs converted.

637
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 4: We saw them struggle on third down mightily last week

638
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 4: against KC. They were three to nine on third down,

639
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 4: which they really needed because on the second half Kenneth

640
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 4: Walker was taking off, but they could not convert on

641
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 4: third down at all. And the Jets defense, I think

642
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 4: should be able to withstand any of that type of

643
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 4: rushing attack because we have a little bit of a

644
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 4: superior quarterback to back. Again, I'm not gonna say, I'm

645
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 4: not gonna go I'm not gonna go on the flip

646
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 4: side and say that Mike White is competent. He's just not.

647
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 4: He's almost competent, whereas as opposed to Zach Wilson, he's

648
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 4: just complete incompetent. So again, just that kind of upgrade.

649
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 4: I just don't want to elevate him and say that, Okay,

650
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 4: he's a top fifteen quarterback in the NFL now, But

651
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 4: kind of predicting a game script similar to what we

652
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 4: saw when the Jets played Chicago and where they just

653
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 4: kind of cruise to a double digit win. The defense

654
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 4: takes care of business. So give me Jets minus one

655
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 4: and a half against the Seahawks.

656
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 3: Of course, in this case too, you hope for less quarterback.

657
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 3: Well maybe, actually you might be promoting it. Well, no,

658
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 3: in this case, you wouldn't want that for the Jets

659
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 3: quarterback murkiness. As Anthony brought up before, that was Simeon

660
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 3: playing in the game for the Bears, the game you're

661
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 3: referencing from earlier in the year, but now we know

662
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 3: it is going to be Mike White as the starter

663
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 3: for the Jets in this case taking on Seattle on

664
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 3: the road. You guys are all going against the trend

665
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 3: off Pete Carroll at home off a loss twenty seven

666
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 3: to fourteen, and one against the spread at home off

667
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 3: a straight up loss in that spot. So all right,

668
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 3: abandon Island, get the hell out, bunker down, and go

669
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 3: to Jets. Go to Jets Island, Sauce Islands Island, whatever,

670
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 3: Snap a cornerback, I guess that's how it goes.

671
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 1: And we have one more pick.

672
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 3: So we all kind of blended the du Bundo's second

673
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 3: pick with Brandon and Jill's third pick being both all three.

674
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 1: Guys on the Jets.

675
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 3: You know you said it off the top, and I'm

676
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 3: not putting words in your mouth.

677
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: You said it, not me.

678
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 3: You have a lot of little gross ones this week,

679
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 3: du Bundo and your third stint I think on the podcast,

680
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 3: third or fourth, fourth, fourth stint on the podcast now

681
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 3: in week seventeen, give it to us your final pick.

682
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 7: Please the Denver Broncos Country Let's ride Broncos plus twelve

683
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 7: and a half at the Kansas City Chief Person. I

684
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 7: watched on Christmas for the first half. You did everybody

685
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 7: else I had. I put the Nickelodeon broadcast on. I

686
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 7: had a couple of my little cousins over. They were

687
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 7: really enjoying it. I enjoyed it too. Patrick Starr broadcasting

688
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 7: the Russell Wilson interception was incredible. And we're at the

689
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 7: point now where the Brons.

690
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 1: Patrick is Patrick Starr part of your handicap?

691
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 2: Yes?

692
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 7: Yes, no, but the Bronco in a way yes, because

693
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 7: you cannot get lower than that, and this is the

694
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 7: time to buy the Broncos. Social media is now retweeting

695
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 7: players hyping up Russell Wilson. That's the point we're at

696
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 7: now where they're I guarantee you somebody in Broncos pr

697
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 7: is like, hey, go on Twitter, so support for us,

698
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 7: so we can retweet it and make it look like

699
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 7: the walls aren't closing in. You've got Shannon Sharp going

700
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 7: on First Take or Undisputed, whatever show he's on, talking

701
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 7: about how nobody in the organization likes him, nobody in

702
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 7: the locker room respects him. I mean, that's how bad

703
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 7: it is for Denver. And I'm betting the Broncos for

704
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 7: the same reason that I bet them a month ago,

705
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 7: and it's that their secondary is really good, and they do.

706
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 7: They did a good job of making it difficult for

707
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 7: Patrick Mahomes. He had three interceptions in that game. He

708
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 7: was not at his sharpest, but he also was forced

709
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 7: into some mistakes by this very good top five.

710
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 4: In the league secondary.

711
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 7: They got dominated on the ground last week, but Kensony's

712
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 7: not going to do that. They're not going to run

713
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 7: all over Denver. And it's still a divisional game. It's

714
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 7: still a rivalry in a sense, even though it's been

715
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 7: dominated by the Chiefs, and the Chiefs have been a

716
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 7: really bad favorite in their division. They have not covered

717
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 7: a divisional game all season. They have not been a

718
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 7: good home favorite, they have not been a good big

719
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 7: favorite under Mahomes. All of that points me toward Denver

720
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 7: and how much has really changed in the last month.

721
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 7: When Denver was plus eight and a half at home

722
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 7: against Kansas City, now you're catching it was as high

723
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,359
Speaker 7: as thirteen thirteen and a half, now down to twelve

724
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,800
Speaker 7: and a half on the road. Kensady has no reason

725
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 7: to get margin. They haven't been able to get margin

726
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 7: on anybody. And yes they did cover last week against Seattle,

727
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 7: but how many times was Seattle in the top in

728
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 7: deep in Kansasity territory just not converting four thousands? It

729
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 7: felt like they were a lot closer in that game.

730
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:50,439
Speaker 7: So it's a classic overinflated line. Nobody wants to bet

731
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 7: the Broncos. It's still the NFL. Nobody truly tanks, and

732
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 7: they's not like they're tanking anyway because they don't have

733
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 7: their first round pick. Seattle's going to pick in the

734
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 7: top four this year. So give me Theos plus twelve

735
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 7: and a half and I'm probably going to be on

736
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 7: the Raiders next week when they play the Chiefs, although

737
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 7: we'll see with with Stidham. But yeah, it's a classic

738
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 7: hold your nose ugly play. I don't have like stats

739
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 7: to tell you how good Denver is. I mean, they're horrible.

740
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,839
Speaker 7: They're they're bottom three and series conversion rate. Offensively, it's

741
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 7: a terrible offense. But you only need, you know, maybe

742
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 7: seventeen points to feel really good about this number. And

743
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 7: Denver's been good at getting to you know, fourteen to

744
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 7: seventeen points this season.

745
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 4: Oh, you can't get higher.

746
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 3: They well, you mentioned not much as well they did.

747
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 3: They did fire Hacket. That that happened too.

748
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 7: That, yeah, exactly, and that a good thing.

749
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 3: I guess you're saying it can't get worse.

750
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 7: I mean the Colts fired Frank Reich and went to

751
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 7: Jeff Saturday who had no coaching experience, and then won

752
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 7: a game six days later, So how bad can it be.

753
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 7: It's one game you might get an inspired effort because

754
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 7: of Hackett getting fired. I don't know, like he's not

755
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 7: a good I think we can all agree on that. Like,

756
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 7: what was the value out of Nate Hackett to this team?

757
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 7: It didn't seem like there was much, So you can't

758
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 7: really lose much from going to the interim that none

759
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 7: of us have ever heard of.

760
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you.

761
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 6: This is such a Denver spot based on you're buying

762
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 6: at the absolute nid.

763
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 2: Dear.

764
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 6: My only fear here why I'm gonna probably just pass

765
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 6: on this. I think it's Broncos are passed. My fear

766
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 6: is that. Look, look, we watched the game on Christmas.

767
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 6: We had a nickelodeon a fun The team quit in

768
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 6: that game. I just don't know who they quit on.

769
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 6: Did they quit on our buddy Nate Hackett or were

770
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 6: they quitting on Russell Wilson because he's still rolling out

771
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 6: there this week, and I wonder if that's what the

772
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 6: players are really done with. And obviously that's not going anywhere.

773
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 6: Russell's stuck around there for a long time. So I

774
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 6: am a little worried that they might just be like, now, man,

775
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 6: that wasn't the problem here. We don't want this guy

776
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,880
Speaker 6: quarterbacking our team anymore. He's been so bad, like the

777
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 6: receivers are like openly complaining in bad, terrible body language.

778
00:36:58,239 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 2: So on Twitter.

779
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, so really quick to Dubundo's point, Jerry, this

780
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 3: isn't the last hour folks were recording. On Thursday, Judy

781
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 3: and Handler went on Twitter. Did Courtland Sutton, who was

782
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 3: the one waving his arms on the broadcast Russ run

783
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 3: run the plane? I don't think Sutton was on Twitter?

784
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,919
Speaker 7: Dubundo all right, Sutton will be in the end zone

785
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 7: this weekend, covering the back door when the Chiefs win

786
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 7: by seven in a game that was never competitive.

787
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 3: Come on, Jill, you got to have something here. You

788
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 3: gotta be thinking something before, Jill.

789
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 7: If you bet Denver a month ago, you have to

790
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 7: bet Denver. That's my That's my other thing. If you

791
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 7: bet Denver plus any.

792
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 4: Touchdown odds to come out man, because based on the

793
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 4: way the matchup is, he lines up mostly in the

794
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 4: slot and that's where Casey struggles to be able to defend. Now,

795
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 4: will Russell Wilson actually be able to take advantage of

796
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,439
Speaker 4: this said advantage? I don't know, but I will say

797
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,919
Speaker 4: that if you're gonna give me probably it's probably gonna

798
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,840
Speaker 4: be around plus two seventy five to plus three hundred

799
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 4: odds for him to score a touchdown this week. That's

800
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 4: who I'm gonna be looking at in that game.

801
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:01,360
Speaker 6: I'll I ask is for a terrible game that we

802
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 6: can put last on our list Sunday night, so that

803
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 6: Jill gets one more Broncos game to cover.

804
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,080
Speaker 4: It'll be that one. I can guarantee it.

805
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 3: Hey, before we wrap up the show, let's take a

806
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 3: very quick look at next week's lines. Week eighteen to

807
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 3: a final week of the regular season. See if you

808
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 3: like any numbers now before they adjust to Sunday's action.

809
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson always takes the reins on this for the

810
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 3: look aheadline, So a little complicated, and I think folks

811
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:27,400
Speaker 3: are going to kind of catch on here once you

812
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 3: get started with your analysis. But folks, as we know,

813
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 3: playoff implications, teams eliminated, teams that need to win, teams

814
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 3: that are playing for the number one seed or playing

815
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 3: to get in the playoffs. So a lot, truly a

816
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 3: lot of what happens that look Ahead's hard is the

817
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 3: point for this week, because a lot of what happens

818
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 3: this week relies on effort trying giving a crap next week, So.

819
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 1: Why don't you dive in.

820
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 3: You've got some you've got some angles now that you're maneuvering.

821
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, so if you're looking for just a traditional hey,

822
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 6: you know, we've been catching out. You know, last week,

823
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 6: I think Dependo Game Packers, we count a point there

824
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 6: on my article I had the Steelers, We'd gained three

825
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 6: and a half points to that. If you want to

826
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 6: just gain some point value on the line, this is

827
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 6: really not the week to do it.

828
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:11,919
Speaker 2: I couldn't really find one that.

829
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 6: I love, partly because every game next week is directly

830
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 6: impacted by all.

831
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 2: The games this week and setting up motivations.

832
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 6: I think something like twelve of the sixteen games next week,

833
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 6: I look at the line and I'm like, well, that

834
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,760
Speaker 6: could swing a lot, not a point, like three points,

835
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 6: seven points, depending on well, what if this team rests,

836
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 6: and you know what goes from there. So I'm looking

837
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 6: to play a little bit more aggressively here. So if

838
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:40,479
Speaker 6: you want to just look for a regularly look ahead,

839
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 6: this is not your spot. But I'm gonna play some

840
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:46,760
Speaker 6: Week seventeen money lines. So I say, Okay, who wins

841
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 6: or loses Week seventeen, and that determines the rest favorable

842
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 6: outcome for Week eighteen. So I'm gonna parlay a Week

843
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 6: seventeen money line with the week eighteen money line and

844
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:01,799
Speaker 6: the Week eighteen game on pairing. It can't be the

845
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:05,399
Speaker 6: same team because the books will will reject the bet.

846
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 6: You can't put the same team in there, but if

847
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 6: you can kind of correlate results. So here's the one

848
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 6: I'll give out, and then you can check my article

849
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:13,959
Speaker 6: that post Friday for a few more of these.

850
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 2: Debundo. I got a Broncos one in there that will

851
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: be a doozy for you.

852
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 6: Broncos this week, Patriots next week against the resting Bills.

853
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 6: If they win and the Chiefs lose, then maybe that's

854
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,399
Speaker 6: just a resting game for the Bills twenty nine to one.

855
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 6: If you like that one, you really want to go

856
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 6: in on Broncos country, let's ride for that. Here's my

857
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 6: pick for today. Give me the New Orleans Saints against

858
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 6: the Eagles this week plus two thirty, but partly that

859
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 6: with next week the Cowboys to be Washington plus one seventy.

860
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 6: So combine that together you get a plus seven ninety one.

861
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,879
Speaker 6: So let me start with the Saints. Saints are playing

862
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 6: the Eagles, who are highly favored, but still looks like

863
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 6: no Jalen Hurts. We did see him in practice today,

864
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,439
Speaker 6: but I don't think we're gonna see him in the game.

865
00:40:58,040 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 1: No.

866
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 6: Lane Johnson, The Star tackle. There not the same offense

867
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:04,880
Speaker 6: without him, Novonte Maddox, the nickel corner. These things are

868
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 6: starting to add up for that team. And honestly, the

869
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 6: Saints are playing pretty good football. They're still live. They

870
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,319
Speaker 6: are live for the division, alive for the playoffs. This

871
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 6: could be a playoff preview depending on how things play out.

872
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:20,280
Speaker 6: That sounds crazy, but Saints pass defense has been good overall.

873
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 6: They're the number ten DVA team the last six weeks.

874
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 6: This team, it's pretty solid, and the Eagles are not

875
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 6: what they once were.

876
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 2: Now.

877
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 6: Look, I'm not just gonna play a Saints money line.

878
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 6: I don't think the Saints win. I think they could win, though,

879
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 6: and if they do win, look at next week. Right now,

880
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 6: Dallas is a four and a half point underdog in Washington.

881
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:44,760
Speaker 6: That's because we expect the Cowboys to be resting because

882
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 6: the one seed probably is wrapped up by then. If

883
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 6: the Eagles win this game, the Cowboys are locked into

884
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 6: the five seed. If the Saints win instead, and of

885
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 6: course the Cowboys hopefully one Thursday night, by the time

886
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 6: you're listening to this, they're huge favorites to expect them

887
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 6: to now. I think the Cowboys end up favored against Washington.

888
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 6: Now they have every incentive to go get the win.

889
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:06,839
Speaker 6: I don't need to make the case for why Dallas

890
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 6: is better than Washington. You already know that they're better.

891
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 6: They're trying their favorite and now heading next week. If

892
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 6: the Saints got the win this week, we got a

893
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 6: plus seven ninety one money line on a Cowboys team

894
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 6: that wants to win against Washington, who frankly might be

895
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 6: eliminated if they lose this week and you get a

896
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 6: couple other results, Washington might be out, they might be arresting.

897
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,439
Speaker 6: Maybe they play rookie Sam Howell at quarterback to see

898
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 6: what they've got there. So guy to get creative with these.

899
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 6: You know there's a better chance we're going to lose

900
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 6: than hit this one. But if the Saints win this week,

901
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,360
Speaker 6: then we get a really nice spot for next week.

902
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,279
Speaker 6: You can do more with it. You could add a

903
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 6: forty nine Ers win because they'd have a little incentive

904
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 6: extra to do it. You could add a Vikings win,

905
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 6: same reason. So if you kind of think creatively on

906
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 6: how to combine these, you can still play a little

907
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 6: look ahead, play the money lines because you want the

908
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 6: win here. The win loss is the result we're keying

909
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 6: on so Saints this week, Cowboys next week plus seven

910
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 6: ninety one.

911
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 2: That's the look ahead this week.

912
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:09,840
Speaker 7: That was Charlie from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia in

913
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 7: the mail room, just like all these connected webs and everything.

914
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 4: That was fabulous.

915
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 3: What do you think he's looking at right now? He's

916
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 3: bunker down in North Dakota. He's got he's got the

917
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 3: web up right now. So he's got in front of

918
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 3: him there at his new bunker down location.

919
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 4: Right, I'm looking at the Packerson Wentz.

920
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 3: All right, fellas, let's recap the picks. We'll get ourselves

921
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 3: out of here. To wrap up the Week seventeen Best

922
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 3: Bets episode, Brandon Anderson his picks for Week seventeen. He's

923
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 3: on New England Miami under forty one and a half.

924
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 3: He's on the Detroit Lions first half minus three and

925
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 3: a half, and he's got a parlay for us SO

926
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,720
Speaker 3: on the Fanduels Sports book at plus two thirty nine,

927
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 3: you can get the Jets minus one and a half

928
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:50,919
Speaker 3: and he's gonna take the under on Jets Seahawks under

929
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 3: forty two and a half. Jill's on the Niners minus

930
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 3: nine and a half hosting Jarrett Stidham and the Raiders

931
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 3: Buffalo Monday Night minus one and a half, and he's

932
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 3: also on the Jets minus one and a half, Dubundo

933
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:08,240
Speaker 3: on the Bears full game plus six against Detroit Jets

934
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 3: minus one and a half and the Denver Broncos plus

935
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 3: twelve and a half as of right now. Okay, folks,

936
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:17,359
Speaker 3: that'll do it here on the Action Network podcast Week

937
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 3: seventeen Best Bets We are presented by Fandel, Thanks to Brandon,

938
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 3: Jill and Dubundo. Rest of luck with your bets this weekend.

939
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 3: We will see you for the recap episode Monday morning.

940
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 3: I'm Brendan glas Sheen. Thanks again for joining us on

941
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:30,240
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast.

942
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 7: Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly. If you or

943
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 7: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

944
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 7: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler