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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Buck Brief, everybody, very special guests on this

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Speaker 2: edition of the program. We are joined right now by

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Speaker 2: Bernard Hudson. He spent twenty eight years in the CIA's

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Speaker 2: Director of Operations and retired as the Chief of counter Terrorism,

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Speaker 2: where he headed the agency's global response to terrorist threats.

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Speaker 2: He retired in twenty seventeen served as a fellow at

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Speaker 2: Harvard University as is in the international drone industry. Now, Bernard,

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Speaker 2: honored to have you.

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Speaker 3: Here, sir, great to talk with you.

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Speaker 2: Buck hey, senior brother from Langley, if you will, I had.

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Speaker 2: I did a short stint there myself a long time ago.

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Speaker 2: It was an interesting place.

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Speaker 3: Even a short stint is a long time.

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Speaker 2: It felt like it, I will say at the time.

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Speaker 2: So we should talk offline about some of that another time.

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Speaker 2: So Bernard, you're you're very well placed to bring your

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Speaker 2: expertise in your background to this issue of what's going

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Speaker 2: to go on now in terms of the Israeli fight

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Speaker 2: in Gaza. What are your expectations? How long will this

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Speaker 2: last What kind of tactics are we going to see?

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Speaker 2: Just sort of walk us through how you think this

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Speaker 2: is going to play out in the days and weeks ahead.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, great questions. So I think the Israeli response is

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Speaker 1: going to be going to be based on three things

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Speaker 1: that failed on the seventh of October. The first thing

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Speaker 1: that failed was deterrence. The second thing that failed was

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Speaker 1: advanced warning. The third thing that failed was forward defense

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Speaker 1: at the border. All three of these were things that

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Speaker 1: Israel's national security strategy.

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Speaker 3: Has always depended on.

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Speaker 1: They need to have a sense in the minds of

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Speaker 1: their enemies that attacking Israel calm comes with an inordent

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Speaker 1: amount of costs. That obviously failed on the seventh of

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Speaker 1: October when Hamas launched the greatest attack against Israeli civilians.

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Speaker 3: It's ever, really, frankly, ever happen.

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Speaker 1: And Second, the Israelis have always placed a great amount

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Speaker 1: of faith in their advanced warning and their intelligence services

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Speaker 1: and their security services. Something has gone terribly wrong with

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Speaker 1: that process that I am sure the Israelis are looking

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Speaker 1: at trying to fix. And then third, they have to

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Speaker 1: figure out and overcome a failure of forward defense defense

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Speaker 1: at the border. A small country like Israel can't trade

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Speaker 1: space for time. They've got to defend forward. They've got

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Speaker 1: civillians located on all their vulnerable border points. So what's

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Speaker 1: probably going to happen over the next few days is

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Speaker 1: the Israeli defense forces and their security services are going

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Speaker 1: to attempt to put together the best plan that they

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Speaker 1: can to reach into Gaza, almost certainly with a ground

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Speaker 1: invasion of some sort that will be sustained long enough

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Speaker 1: to root out what in the Israeli defense forces minds

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Speaker 1: would be the ability of hamasd ever launched any type

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Speaker 1: of right like this for a number of years coming forward.

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Speaker 1: The very brutality and scale of what happened on the

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Speaker 1: seventh of October takes off the table realistically a moderated

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Speaker 1: response by the Israelis or a response in which they

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Speaker 1: would opt to take two or three months to ramp

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Speaker 1: up their capabilities. There'll be enormous pressure under the net

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Speaker 1: Nyah for the net Yahu government to do a maximalist

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Speaker 1: response in as short a time as possible.

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Speaker 2: What does that maximalist response look like? I mean, are

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Speaker 2: we at a point now where Hamas leadership has to

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Speaker 2: be either captured or killed across the board. I mean,

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Speaker 2: what is a maximalist response from the perspective of net

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Speaker 2: Yahoo and the Israelis given the terror attack that Israel

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Speaker 2: has just suffered.

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Speaker 1: I think a minimum it includes destroying hamas as, the leadership,

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Speaker 1: its middle level cadres of personnel and staff, its support networks,

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Speaker 1: and doing all of this, frankly in a physical space,

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Speaker 1: especially for an American audience that is very very small.

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Speaker 1: Gaza is barely bigger than two Washington, DC's two and

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Speaker 1: a half million people, but you're already seeing, with the

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Speaker 1: amount of air strikes and artillery strikes going on inside Gaza,

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Speaker 1: a very different scale of an Israeli response. But I

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Speaker 1: think that response is not going to be so much

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Speaker 1: focused on how much infrastructure they destroy, but the human

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Speaker 1: infrastructure of Hamas and the.

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Speaker 3: Support networks that allow it to operate.

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Speaker 1: And I think that will take probably at least several

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Speaker 1: weeks for the Israeli defense forces and their security services

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Speaker 1: to locate, find, fix, and finish those type of targets.

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Speaker 2: What do you think about what Hesbola is likely to

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Speaker 2: do inn Lebanon here, facing the Israelis with all the

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Speaker 2: missiles that they've got stockpiled from the north. Do you

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Speaker 2: think that there's a high likelihood that they could become

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Speaker 2: an active combatant in this as well, or do they

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Speaker 2: probably see the Israeli responses as not worth it.

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Speaker 1: I think that's the biggest question in the mind of

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Speaker 1: Israeli security service personnel probably going forward over the next

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Speaker 1: two weeks. What is the likelihood that Hasbala would feel

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Speaker 1: it has to or want to join in the fight

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Speaker 1: against these ready defense forces in the north. Absolutely, Hebala

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Speaker 1: has more than enough capability and rockets and missiles to

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Speaker 1: cause enormous damage in northern Israel. But the Israelis have

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Speaker 1: a great deal of counter force and counterstrike capability as well.

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Speaker 1: I'd say, you know, the problem right now is that

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Speaker 1: I think the Israelis have very little confidence or it's

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Speaker 1: going to take while to re establish confidence in knowing

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Speaker 1: what their enemies are about to do or might do.

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Speaker 1: That will tend to push them towards assuming a set

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Speaker 1: of worst case scenarios and build responses towards that.

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Speaker 2: MyPillow two point zero now, Bernard. The Iranian hand in

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Speaker 2: this has already been reported on Wall Street Journal and

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Speaker 2: other sources, and also Hesbalah and Hamas have basically said

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Speaker 2: Iran was involved in the planning of this, So it's

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Speaker 2: pretty clear that that's the case. Do you do you

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Speaker 2: think that there's a chance that Israel may escalate and

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Speaker 2: go directly after Iran with targeted strikes against personnel's what's

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Speaker 2: your sense of the likely Israeli response to Iran's hand.

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Speaker 3: And all this.

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Speaker 1: I think it would be very It would take a

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Speaker 1: lot of leaps of faith to believe that Iran didn't

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Speaker 1: have anything to do with this. Iran is the most

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Speaker 1: important benefactor and patron for Hamas for Hamas operatives. To

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Speaker 1: pull off an operation of this size without telling Iran

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Speaker 1: would have risked their entire support from Tehran. So I

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Speaker 1: think there's ample evidence, and I think more evidence will

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Speaker 1: come out over the gncoming days about their hand in this.

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Speaker 1: I think the first order of business for the Israelis

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Speaker 1: will be re establishing to terms Visa VI Hamas in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: Longer term, I think they'll turn their attention to what

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Speaker 1: would be the proper response to the Iranians. I think

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Speaker 1: in this there'd be an active conversation between them and

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Speaker 1: their Western allies, especially the United States, as to what

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Speaker 1: the American appetite for that might be. And certainly, you know,

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Speaker 1: with the current White House, which has taken a much

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Speaker 1: more accommodationist view towards Iran than you know, most administrations have,

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Speaker 1: I think that would be a very complex discussion between

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Speaker 1: those two governments.

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Speaker 2: What are Iranian goals right now visa VI, it's support

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Speaker 2: for Hamas and hesblah, and just in the region, what

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Speaker 2: are the Mollahs trying to achieve?

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Speaker 1: So it's easy to forget how ideological at the very

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Speaker 1: top the Iranian regime is. They really do believe in

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Speaker 1: their revolution, they do believe in the ideology that underpins it,

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Speaker 1: and they've carried out a set of activities over decades

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Speaker 1: that are completely in line with that philosophy, which is

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Speaker 1: push their brand of Islam, their brand of politics into

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Speaker 1: their neighbors and neighboring states, often using proxies like they

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Speaker 1: did in Yemen with the Houthi groups, in Lebanon with Hezbala,

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Speaker 1: and certainly in the Palestinian territories with Hamas. So this

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Speaker 1: is part and parcel of how Iran and Iraq frankly probably.

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Speaker 3: The biggest test case or use case.

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Speaker 1: So this is a tried and true tactic for the Iranians,

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Speaker 1: and if you think about it from their they've been

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Speaker 1: able to do this for decades with very little cost

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Speaker 1: other than you know, economic sanctions extracted upon them, and

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Speaker 1: certainly over the last couple of years even a lot

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Speaker 1: of those sanctions have come off. Even last week, six

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Speaker 1: billion dollars in sanctions got lifted on them. They got

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Speaker 1: access to a lot of money they hadn't had in

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Speaker 1: a long time in return for releasing five Iranian American

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Speaker 1: citizens and a few other things that they have done.

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Speaker 1: If you look at this from the Iranian point of view,

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Speaker 1: it's a winning strategy.

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Speaker 2: And so for them it's just extending their extending their

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Speaker 2: influence and reach across the broader Middle East, targeting and

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Speaker 2: trying to kill as many of their perceived enemies as possible.

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Speaker 2: What do you think the Biden administration response should should be? Right?

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Speaker 2: I mean, we know that Biden is really a continuation

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Speaker 2: of Obama's appeasement of Iran, and that the Democrat positioning

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Speaker 2: on Iran is very I would say, very favorable to

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Speaker 2: what the what the Mullahs want. But if if they

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Speaker 2: were to get serious, and perhaps there's some I mean,

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Speaker 2: I don't think this is likely, but it's theoretically possible

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Speaker 2: there's some changing of minds in Democrat circles in DC

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Speaker 2: because of this horrific attack in Israel. What would a

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Speaker 2: robust policy look like to deal with Iran in such

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Speaker 2: a way that it wouldn't feel such a it wouldn't

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Speaker 2: have such a free hand in its mind to engage

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Speaker 2: in this nefarious terror sponsoring behaviors all across the Middle

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Speaker 2: East and really around the world.

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Speaker 1: So I think the Biden administration would struggle a lot

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Speaker 1: with coming up with a policy that could do that

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Speaker 1: that in their mind, would not risk with Iranian retribution

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Speaker 1: and counterattacks in Iraq, in the Gulf States, all of

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Speaker 1: which there's significant American interests in. I'd say the real

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Speaker 1: realistic thing that the Biden administration might consider would be

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Speaker 1: reimposing severe restrictions on Iranian oil sales, even six billion

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Speaker 1: dollars around God will pay in significance to how much

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Speaker 1: money they're going to make as oil moves towards one

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars a barrel, and their ability to sell as

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Speaker 1: much of that oil as possible fuels the Iranian government's

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Speaker 1: ability to conduct repression at home and bad behavior abroad.

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Speaker 1: But I would I don't think it's realistic to believe

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Speaker 1: that thirteen months before an election, the current administration is

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Speaker 1: going to modify its Iranian policy all that much, and

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Speaker 1: not to the point of hostilities.

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Speaker 2: I want to talk about the I doubt saying it

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Speaker 2: go ahead.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not saying I would necessarily agree with it,

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Speaker 1: but I just to be realistic, I think they are

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Speaker 1: not likely to push forward.

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Speaker 2: We'll come back in and talk about some follow on

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Speaker 2: threats and threats to the US homeland, specifically Bernard in

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Speaker 2: just a second. But some people in the know are

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Speaker 2: speculating on a coming change to our currency system. According

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Speaker 2: to one of them, a former Wall Street insider and

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Speaker 2: digital currency expert, our federal government could soon announce this change.

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Speaker 2: In this scenario, our paper currency could be replaced with

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Speaker 2: something much more trackable, a digital currency. This expert is

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Speaker 2: known by the name Tika Twari. He's warning that an

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Speaker 2: official announcement could come within months. He's exposing this government

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Speaker 2: plan in an online video and showing you the three

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Speaker 2: steps you need to take to prepare. Go to Dollar

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Speaker 2: Recall dot Com to watch this video. You'll learn more

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Speaker 2: com and learn how to prepare before it's too late.

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Speaker 2: Your entire savings could depend on it. Dollar Recall dot

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Speaker 2: Com paid for by Palm Beach Research Group. So there

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Speaker 2: are concerns about our wide open border, about attacks on

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Speaker 2: US by either Iranian Iranian groups different proxies than the

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Speaker 2: least our IRGC could force some kind of you know,

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Speaker 2: Hamas affiliated cell. I mean, this is what people are

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Speaker 2: talking about right now. Bernard, what do you think of that?

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Speaker 2: I mean, do you think the US should be in

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Speaker 2: an elevated threat posture right now? Or is your expectation

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Speaker 2: that this is all really going to be limited in

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Speaker 2: terms of the kinetic you know, the fighting limited to

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Speaker 2: Gaza and its immediate environs.

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Speaker 1: So to the plus side within the Middle East States,

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's a desire by anybody other than

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Speaker 1: Iran to want this thing to escalate. Unlike previous conflicts

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Speaker 1: that have happened in involving the Israelis and the Palestinians,

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Speaker 1: there's not a lot of There's no sympathy for Hamas

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Speaker 1: in most of the mainstream Arab countries. They don't want

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Speaker 1: this thing to get worse out of hand, but I

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Speaker 1: don't see any of them contributing to make it worse.

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Speaker 1: Your second first question, I think is a powerful one,

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Speaker 1: and that is, you know, the key feature in counter

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Speaker 1: terrorism and being prepared for it is understanding the threat

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Speaker 1: from the people who might carry out those acts. Possible

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Speaker 1: to have a realistic counter terrorism policy if you actually

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Speaker 1: have no control over your border, an unwillingness to defend

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Speaker 1: your own borders or to even know who's coming into

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Speaker 1: your country makes it very hard for counter terrorism officials

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Speaker 1: in any country, whether it's Europe or the United States,

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Speaker 1: to build a realistic plan to deal with that threat.

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Speaker 1: I think it would be very hard to be in

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Speaker 1: the American security services right now and to give an

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Speaker 1: honest answer to their political bosses that they feel confident

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Speaker 1: that they know enough about who's coming into the United

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Speaker 1: States to make a calculation on what that risk really is.

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Speaker 3: It's unknowable and so elevated.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think that's right, it's both unknowable

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Speaker 2: and elevated. Do you think that there's going to be

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Speaker 2: any change from any of our other regional allies in

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Speaker 2: their posture toward Hamas as a result of this, or

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Speaker 2: are we likely to see a continuation of a status

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Speaker 2: Quoia Cutter, for example, still being very friendly toward Hamas,

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Speaker 2: you know, other you know what I mean, Like, is

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Speaker 2: there going to be any realignment that happens as a

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Speaker 2: result of this?

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Speaker 1: So? I mean Hamas has long been listed under as

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Speaker 1: a terrorist organization by the US State Department. However, it's

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Speaker 1: always been in that gray zone of militant group, terrorist

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Speaker 1: group that was viewed as not particularly trying to target

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Speaker 1: Americans and so came in for a sort of a

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Speaker 1: different set of policy options than El kata or isis did.

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Speaker 1: I think there'll be a lot of discussion about reevaluating

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Speaker 1: that and doing more towards them and more to stop

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Speaker 1: as to the Middle Eastern States themselves. I think the

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Speaker 1: biggest thing you see out here, and I'm in Saudi

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Speaker 1: Arabia right now. What you find is people saying the

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Speaker 1: American unwillingness to understand and appreciate Iran's regional bad behavior

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Speaker 1: continues to make things like what just happened on seven

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Speaker 1: October more like to happen. And so certainly within the

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Speaker 1: Gulf States, which have seen number of tax by Iranian surrogates,

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Speaker 1: they see this as simply a continuation of a terrible

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Speaker 1: trend line that's been going on for over a decade.

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Speaker 2: Do you think this will affect the efforts by the

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Speaker 2: at the end of the Trump administration to bring about

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Speaker 2: closer Saudi Saudi Israeli relations and some of those movements

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Speaker 2: that were made on a peace and diplomacy side.

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Speaker 1: You know, at most those may pause for a period

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Speaker 1: of time, but the trend line towards normalization between state

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Speaker 1: to state relations and this part of the world has

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Speaker 1: been towards normalization and not towards further antagonized relationships, especially

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Speaker 1: within the GCC States and the Israelis.

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Speaker 2: Hold on a second burn one more word from responsor. Here,

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Speaker 2: are you wondering why everyone's talking about Belize these days?

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Speaker 2: Because Belize is fun? I mean, imagine is in a

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Speaker 2: country just a couple of hours from Miami, Atlanta, Dallas,

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Speaker 2: and Houston, where you can enjoy both the rainforest and

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Speaker 2: white sand beaches all on the same day. Belize is

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Speaker 2: fun because you can float through caves, down a jungle river,

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Speaker 2: climb an ancient mind ruin, swim with nurse sharks and rays,

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Speaker 2: cast for a grand slam, the ultimate in fly fishing

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Speaker 2: on the flats, snorkel or scuba dive the longest living

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Speaker 2: reef in the world, or simply relax. Enjoy the beach bars,

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Speaker 2: playing live music and dance under the stars barefoot every

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Speaker 2: night after the best lobster dinner you've ever had. Don't

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Speaker 2: take my word for it, go visit. Belize is fun

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Speaker 2: for so many reasons. Download your free Belize handbook and guide.

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Speaker 2: Go to Belize isfun dot com to get that guide.

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Speaker 2: That's Belize b e l Ize Belize is fun dot

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Speaker 2: com because it is fun. Bernard, do you think that

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Speaker 2: this is gonna be over in a matter of weeks

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Speaker 2: or could you see this conflict extending for months?

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Speaker 1: I think the active military phase of this probably goes

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Speaker 1: on for up to a month. I think the long

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Speaker 1: term fallout of a heightened number of terrorist attacks on

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Speaker 1: perhaps Western interests and certainly Israeli interests in countries that

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Speaker 1: are outside the region. That extends for probably six months

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Speaker 1: to a year, as the fallout of this.

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Speaker 3: Becomes more understood, you.

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Speaker 1: Know, the longer the extreme nature of this attack is

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Speaker 1: going to require an extreme response that is going to

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Speaker 1: tend to radicalize or set off, you know, lone wolves

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Speaker 1: or whatever type of other attacks one might think to

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Speaker 1: call these things. But there's going to be elevated violence

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Speaker 1: against Israelis and some Western interests I would imagine over

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Speaker 1: the next six months to a year.

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Speaker 2: Bernando Hudson's formerly CIA's director of Operations, Chief Bernard honored

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Speaker 2: to have you on the show, sir, appreciate you being

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Speaker 2: here and we will talk to you soon.

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Speaker 3: Thank you,