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Speaker 1: What two three breaks and in the middle of the

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Speaker 1: feeling he loves football down in the one yard line.

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Speaker 1: How about that? That is the ultimate Kahn. We are underway.

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the Action

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Speaker 1: Network NFL podcast. I am Matthew Friedman, the editor in

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Speaker 1: chief of Fantasy Labs. I'm joined by Ian Hartitz, the

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Speaker 1: director of the Fantasy Labs NFL platform and an Action

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Speaker 1: Network analyst. You can follow him in the Action Network

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Speaker 1: app at iHeart It's in. You know what week it is?

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Speaker 1: It is the week we have been waiting for seemingly

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Speaker 1: ever since the Super Bowl ended, And of course what

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Speaker 1: I'm talking about is the week of the AAF Championship.

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Speaker 1: In an alternate reality, Ian, how's he going good?

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Speaker 2: Tell you're reminded me of that man Craft. I thought

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Speaker 2: I had all my af tiars out, but a couple more. No,

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Speaker 2: it's good. It's good. It's always a great week to

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Speaker 2: be great, but especially Draft week, and that means we're

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Speaker 2: only about seven days away from officially being able to

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Speaker 2: go all in on the NFL offseason. So it's an

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Speaker 2: exciting time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So I've been putting out one to two pieces

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Speaker 1: on draft props each day, I have a mock draft

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Speaker 1: up on the Action Network. I will release my final

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Speaker 1: mock on Thursday morning, the day of round one. Of course,

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Speaker 1: during round one, we'll be putting out player profiles for

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Speaker 1: these skill position players once they are drafted. We will

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Speaker 1: have pieces for Day two and Day three. On Friday.

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Speaker 1: After round one, Sean Corner, Chris Raybond and I will

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Speaker 1: update our seasonal fantasy rankings. After the draft, I will

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Speaker 1: release my updated dynasty rankings and rookie rankings with analysis. Ian,

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Speaker 1: You're going to be putting out some pieces after the draft. Basically,

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Speaker 1: the draft is almost here and then once it's over,

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Speaker 1: the season is starting. That's the way I'm looking at it.

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Speaker 1: So we will have a lot of content coming at you.

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Speaker 1: And in this episode, we're going to look at my

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Speaker 1: most recent mock draft, specifically the top ten, talked about

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Speaker 1: changes I'm likely to make when I updated on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: and through that we're going to break down the market

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Speaker 1: for draft props and find value in the bets that

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Speaker 1: are out there. So Ian, let's get into it.

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Speaker 2: Pick number one soon. The Arizona Cardinals hold on to this, Matt,

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Speaker 2: you have them taking Kyler Murray quarterback from Oklahoma. He's

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Speaker 2: really been the main talking point of the entire draft process.

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Speaker 2: It has been good to see that, whether or not

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Speaker 2: you believe Kyler will go number one, I feel like

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Speaker 2: the whole draft community has kind of accepted him as

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Speaker 2: at the very least a top two quarterback in this

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Speaker 2: draft class, which why shouldn't he be. He just averaged

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Speaker 2: the most yards per attempt in a season among any

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Speaker 2: quarterback in college football history, And if you've watched him

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Speaker 2: play for more than a quarter you already know how

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Speaker 2: ridiculous his rushing ability is as well. So, Matt, what

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Speaker 2: are your best bets here with Kyler number one? And

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Speaker 2: how concerned are you with these? I guess recent rumors

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Speaker 2: over the last week that the Cardinals could be perhaps

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Speaker 2: over selling their interest in Murray.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is sort of like the Black Swan situation, Like,

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Speaker 1: if Murray doesn't go number one, everything that I think

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Speaker 1: about this draft will crumble down, because, like so many

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Speaker 1: bets are based on him going number one, Like if

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Speaker 1: he doesn't go number one, that means that Bosa probably

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Speaker 1: goes number one, and like there are a lot of

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Speaker 1: things that are built on the idea of Bosa going

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Speaker 1: number two, so it like it will be a cascading

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Speaker 1: effect that will destroy my draft prop portfolio. So I'm

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Speaker 1: obviously hoping that doesn't happen. I was pretty aggressive with

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Speaker 1: Murray early on once news broke that he wasn't going

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Speaker 1: to report to athletic spring training, so I bet on him.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this was a couple of months ago at

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Speaker 1: plus five hundred to be number one. Overall, that number

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Speaker 1: obviously is long gone. The best number that's out there

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Speaker 1: to be the number one pick is minus five hundred.

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Speaker 1: I think it's still be closer to minus eight hundred.

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Speaker 1: I think there's actual value in minus five hundred. It's

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Speaker 1: hard to know exactly what is going on, but they

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Speaker 1: have they been. The Cardinals have isolated Josh Rosen to

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Speaker 1: such an extent that it's hard to imagine that they

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Speaker 1: are faking their interest in Kyler Murray. You know what

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Speaker 1: I mean, Like when when the season schedule was released

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Speaker 1: last week, they immediately put up a video that was

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Speaker 1: like this hype video to get people excited about the

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Speaker 1: Cardinal's upcoming season, and there literally was not one frame

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Speaker 1: of Josh Rosen. Actually, let me rephrase that, there was

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Speaker 1: one where you could like see him in the background,

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Speaker 1: hidden behind all of these other teammates, Like for them

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Speaker 1: to try to hype people up without having their starting

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Speaker 1: quarterback in like a two minute long video like don't

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Speaker 1: I don't know what else I can point to, Like

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Speaker 1: they clearly have moved on from Josh Rosen. So I

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Speaker 1: think there's a lot of value in Kyler Murray. There's

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Speaker 1: also a bet whether he will be a top two pick.

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Speaker 1: You can bet that at minus a thousand. That's a

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Speaker 1: lot of juice to lay, but I think he's pretty

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Speaker 1: much a near lock to be a top two pick. Similarly,

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Speaker 1: you can bet minus a thousand for him to be

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Speaker 1: the first quarterback drafted. I mean I think he's, you know,

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Speaker 1: probably like ninety five ninety eight percent likely to be

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Speaker 1: the first quarterback drafted, and even that feels conservative. So

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Speaker 1: there's some value there. Again, you have to lay some juice,

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Speaker 1: but I think there is value in him. You can

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Speaker 1: also bet on what team is going to draft him,

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Speaker 1: Cardinals at minus four fifty five, Raiders at plus eight hundred.

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Speaker 1: That one is a little bit interesting. I think it's

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Speaker 1: going to be one of those two teams. Either it's

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Speaker 1: the Raiders actually trading up, so that they can get

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Speaker 1: him or it will be the Cardinals taking him, So

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Speaker 1: that might be one to think about. I'm not betting that,

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Speaker 1: but if you kind of think that he's still going

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Speaker 1: number one, but you expect that the Raiders are going

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Speaker 1: to do something wild, something you know, surprising with their

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Speaker 1: top pick, which I mean it has been reported they

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Speaker 1: have sent through scouts home because they are scared of

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Speaker 1: people leaking what they're planning to do, so potentially, you know,

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Speaker 1: they could be in the market for Murray. And then

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Speaker 1: there's one prop that's caught my eye. Will he start

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Speaker 1: in week one? You can bet yes at plus one forty,

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Speaker 1: I think he's almost a near certainty to start in

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Speaker 1: week one, regardless of whoever drafts him. But yeah, so

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Speaker 1: that that is where I'm going with Kyler Murray. I

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Speaker 1: am pretty much all in with him.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the idea of looking at the Raiders

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Speaker 2: plus eight hundred because I do agree with you, he's

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Speaker 2: Almoso surely going number one. The only potential mix up

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Speaker 2: I think could be is if someone happens to trade

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Speaker 2: up to that number one spot to try to grab

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Speaker 2: him from underneath Arizona. So we'll see how it plays. Out,

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Speaker 2: but the number two pick, and like he says, has

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Speaker 2: been you've been riding this like most mock drafts have

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Speaker 2: been riding this, But San Francisco forty nine ers will

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Speaker 2: most likely select O'll have state edge defender Nick Bosa.

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Speaker 2: Bosa has really been dominant the last three years since

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Speaker 2: he entered a Columbus Ohio got on campus. Only played

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Speaker 2: I believe it was two games this last season before

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Speaker 2: he suffered a core injury during the TCU game. But

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Speaker 2: he's really been the consensus top defender thought this entire process.

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Speaker 2: It's been good to see that he because his brother

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Speaker 2: Joey was also the top defender during his draft I

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Speaker 2: believe twenty sixteen. But there was a part in like

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Speaker 2: March after we had not played football for a while

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Speaker 2: where there's a little bit of a backlash on Joey

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Speaker 2: and people wonder if he had, you know, the elite ben,

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Speaker 2: if he could be a double digit sack guy. I

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Speaker 2: think Joey's early pro success has kind of extinguished some

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Speaker 2: of those doubts about Nick. So we have seen him

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Speaker 2: just from really the start of the process and the

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Speaker 2: process be a really highly ranked prospect, and deservedly so.

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Speaker 2: The guy's at beast. So, Matt, what are your thoughts

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Speaker 2: on Boso the number two and what props do you

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Speaker 2: like here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I've surveyed the most recent mocks for like

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Speaker 1: twenty draft Knick. You know, guys twenty experts that I

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Speaker 1: mean that I trust enough, you know what I mean, Like,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't I wouldn't go bet based on what any

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Speaker 1: one of them said, But like, as a collective, I

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Speaker 1: think they give a pretty good sense of the range

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Speaker 1: of outcomes, like what is possible, and literally all of

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Speaker 1: them have Bosa going number two. It's not to say

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Speaker 1: that that is like one hundred percent lock, but I

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Speaker 1: mean I think that is clearly what is most likely

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Speaker 1: to happen, and I think it's probably like ninety percent

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Speaker 1: probability of happening. And so you can bet on Bosa

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Speaker 1: as the number two overall pick at minus two sixty.

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Speaker 1: I think there's quite a bit of value there if

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Speaker 1: you think there's a possibility he might sneak into the

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Speaker 1: number one spot. I mean, it could happen, you never know.

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Speaker 1: If you think there's a chance of that happening, you

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Speaker 1: can bet under two and a half at minus three

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Speaker 1: fifty seven. If you just want to give yourself a

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Speaker 1: little bit more of coverage. Bosa going specifically at number

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Speaker 1: two minus two sixty, I think there's value there. If

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Speaker 1: you even want to say he's going to go to

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Speaker 1: the forty nine ers, you can bet minus two thirty.

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Speaker 1: And I think that also is another way of playing it,

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Speaker 1: because more likely than not, the forty nine ers will

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Speaker 1: stay at number two, and I think Bosa is the

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Speaker 1: guy that they would clearly look to take there. You

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Speaker 1: can also bet Bosa if you don't want to worry

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Speaker 1: about whether he's going number two, whether he goes number one,

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Speaker 1: if a team trades up for him, whatever it is.

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Speaker 1: If you want to bet on him as the first

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Speaker 1: defensive linemen off the board at minus two eighty, that

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Speaker 1: really might be the best way to go. Because as

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Speaker 1: good as Queenan Williams is, Josh Allen, any of the

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Speaker 1: other guys at Oliver, we should mention him. As good

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Speaker 1: as those guys are, Bosa is clearly someone who is

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Speaker 1: a cut above, both in terms of the mocks and

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Speaker 1: then in terms of the like the football guys who

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Speaker 1: actually kind of like give their analysis and great players.

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Speaker 1: All of those guys say that the Bosa is the

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Speaker 1: top defensive lineman, So if you don't want to have

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Speaker 1: to worry about where he's going, you just think relative

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Speaker 1: to all these other guys, he's going to go as

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Speaker 1: the first one off the board. I think there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of value in two eighty. And then if you have,

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Speaker 1: you know, like a great number on Murray as the

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Speaker 1: number one guy and you want to hedge, you can

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Speaker 1: bet on Bosa as the number one overall draft pick

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Speaker 1: at plus four hundred, So that might be something to

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Speaker 1: consider if you got a really good number on Murray earlier,

200
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Speaker 1: or if you just think, like, hey, there is an

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Speaker 1: actual chance. I don't believe what the Cardinals are doing.

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Speaker 1: I think they're looking to trade out or they're drafting Bosa.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this will be a real important situation in Mantra

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Speaker 2: going in to next fantasy season because running backs have

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Speaker 2: really just run all over the forty nine ers, especially

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Speaker 2: with Reuben Foster out and he's obviously now well out

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Speaker 2: of the picture, and they've added Kwan Alexander and free

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Speaker 2: agency already, and adding Bosa to a defensive line with

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Speaker 2: the Forest Buckner could be pretty deadly. So we'll see

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Speaker 2: how that works out, all right, Number three pick in

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Speaker 2: the draft, Matt, you mentioned him briefly, but you have

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Speaker 2: the Jets selecting Alabama defensive tackle Quentin Williams, probably the

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Speaker 2: only defender that you could actually make an argument could

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Speaker 2: be better than Bosa on this draft. Williams actually was

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Speaker 2: PFFS single best overall player in the twenty eighteen season.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he's six foot three, three hundred pounds, and

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Speaker 2: he runs like someone that's about fifty pounds lest I mean,

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Speaker 2: really athletic and even better football player, and there's about

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Speaker 2: no holes you can poke in Williams game. The question

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Speaker 2: here is, Matt, do you actually think the Jets are

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Speaker 2: going to sit still and make a pick at number three?

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Speaker 1: Oh man? So this is where things really get interesting,

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Speaker 1: and I think, like in this conversation, it would also

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Speaker 1: make sense to mention the Oakland Raiders at four and

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Speaker 1: what they might be doing. I have them going in

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Speaker 1: the most recent mock with Josh Allen, but in the

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Speaker 1: updated mock, I'm almost certainly going to change that. Within

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Speaker 1: the past like five days, we've gotten a lot of

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Speaker 1: conflicting information. A report has come out that the Jets

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Speaker 1: really like at Oliver and Daniel Jeremiah, who is presumably

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Speaker 1: very plugged in. He has mocked them with Oliver. But

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Speaker 1: then at the same time, we've had a report come

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Speaker 1: out that the Jets really like Williams and if he

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Speaker 1: drops to them at number three, which seems like a

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Speaker 1: very realistic thing of happening, there are people in the

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Speaker 1: NFL who don't think they will pass on him at

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Speaker 1: number three, so there are a lot of different kind

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Speaker 1: of viewpoints on what they might do. Regardless, We've also

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Speaker 1: had a report coming out that Oliver is almost certainly

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Speaker 1: kind of locked into the top five, that people are

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Speaker 1: thinking of him now as a top by prospect, which

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Speaker 1: makes sense given that entering the twenty eighteen college football

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Speaker 1: season he was presumably the number one pick. Like people

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Speaker 1: were thinking of him entering the season as the number

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Speaker 1: one pick. He'd flashed at his pro day with fantastic athleticism,

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Speaker 1: It's easy to see why some people would like him

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Speaker 1: more than Quentin Williams. Like those two guys are, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think it would be hard to sort of say

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Speaker 1: which one is clearly better than the other one. And

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Speaker 1: the Raiders really like Oliver reportedly as well. So out

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Speaker 1: of what that's happening with the Jets. What's happening with

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Speaker 1: the Raiders. You have Williams, you had all, you have Oliver,

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Speaker 1: And then of course there's like the reports. It's not

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Speaker 1: even like one report, it's like common knowledge. It's known

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Speaker 1: that the Jets are shopping the number three pick, like

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Speaker 1: they want to get out of that pick, and part

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Speaker 1: because they moved up in last year's draft so they

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Speaker 1: could get Sam Darnold, and so if they're able to

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Speaker 1: move down, it will be a way to kind of

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Speaker 1: recoup some picks and kind of even some things out

261
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Speaker 1: from that trade last year. So there are like a

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Speaker 1: lot of questions about what is going to happen. On

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Speaker 1: top of that, you have the report mentioned earlier, rap

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Speaker 1: sheet mentioned that the Raiders are looking to surprise with

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Speaker 1: their top overall pick. You have all of these different things.

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Speaker 1: And what's interesting is that within the prop market, there

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Speaker 1: actually is one out there where it is comparing the

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Speaker 1: draft position of Williams to Oliver. Williams is minus one

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Speaker 1: ninety right now, Oliver is plus one forty. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if we should take that as gospel in terms

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Speaker 1: of like what is likely to happen if you are

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Speaker 1: the opinion that Oliver is likelier to go ahead of Williams,

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Speaker 1: and there are some pretty sharp people who are starting

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Speaker 1: to move Olliver ahead of Williams. That might be the

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Speaker 1: thing to do. There's some pretty good value there. You

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Speaker 1: can actually bet on whether the Jets are going to

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Speaker 1: trade the number three pick. It is minus one twelve

278
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Speaker 1: to do that. I don't know if I would do that,

279
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Speaker 1: but I might project them to trade that pick in

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Speaker 1: my upcoming mock. And speaking of trades, right now, you

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Speaker 1: can actually bet will there be a top ten pick

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Speaker 1: traded on draft Day? Yes, is minus seven hundred. I

283
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Speaker 1: like that one quite a bit. In eight of the

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Speaker 1: past ten years, a top ten pick has been traded,

285
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Speaker 1: and it's actually happened fifteen total times in the last decade,

286
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Speaker 1: so I think there's some value there. One thing you'd

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Speaker 1: maybe want to consider is it looks like it's either

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Speaker 1: going to be Williams or Oliver at number three if

289
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Speaker 1: the Jets keep that pick, And right now you can

290
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Speaker 1: bet on Williams plus two twenty at number three in

291
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Speaker 1: Oliver plus two eighty number three. So that might be

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Speaker 1: a way of looking to kind of cover your bases

293
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Speaker 1: there if you think the Jets actually will end up

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Speaker 1: keeping that pick, and of course there also is an

295
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Speaker 1: arbitrage opportunity assuming Williams doesn't go one and two, which

296
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Speaker 1: I think is a pretty safe assumption. I think Murray

297
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Speaker 1: and Bosa are very likely to be at the top

298
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Speaker 1: of the board. You can bet on Williams at number

299
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Speaker 1: three at plus two twenty, and then you can go

300
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Speaker 1: on the other side bet over three and a half

301
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Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen at another book, so you can

302
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Speaker 1: lock in some profit. Again, assuming that he doesn't go

303
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Speaker 1: one and two, you could also look to bet on

304
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Speaker 1: Williams to the Jets at plus three hundred, and if

305
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Speaker 1: they trade down to number six. Let's say like the

306
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Speaker 1: Giants move up to number three to draft a quarterback,

307
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Speaker 1: they could still potentially get Williams at number six, just

308
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Speaker 1: based on how the board could fall. You could have

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Speaker 1: Oliver drafted, you could have a quarterback drafted, you could

310
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Speaker 1: have Devin White the linebacker drafted, and of course Josh

311
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Speaker 1: Allen could be drafted. Williams could still fall to the

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Speaker 1: Jets even if they trade down. One thing that I

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Speaker 1: think this highlights the most is that Josh Allen does

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Speaker 1: not seem likely to be a top three pick anymore.

315
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Speaker 1: Even just a week or two ago, it seemed like

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Speaker 1: it was pretty much a toss up between whether it

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Speaker 1: was going to be Josh Allen at number three or

318
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Speaker 1: Williams at number three. And now it doesn't look like

319
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Speaker 1: Josh Allen is going to be I don't want to

320
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Speaker 1: say anywhere near the top three, but it seems pretty

321
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Speaker 1: certain he's not in the conversation to be the third

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Speaker 1: guy off the board. So you can bet will Josh

323
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Speaker 1: Allen be a top three pick. You can bet no

324
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Speaker 1: at minus two forty, or specifically, you can bet Josh

325
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Speaker 1: Allen not the number three pick. You can bet that

326
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Speaker 1: at minus two zho five. And I think that there's

327
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Speaker 1: some value there. So that is kind of where I'm

328
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Speaker 1: thinking and thinking about Ed Oliver in particular. If you

329
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Speaker 1: are of the opinion that the recent hype around him

330
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Speaker 1: is something that is indicative of what we might see

331
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Speaker 1: on draft day, then there's some value out there. You

332
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Speaker 1: can bet his draft position under six and a half

333
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Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen. So whether he goes to the Jets,

334
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Speaker 1: goes to the Raiders, the Buccaneers, I mean, you know,

335
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Speaker 1: like maybe even the Giants if they decide to pass

336
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Speaker 1: on quarterback, because they think that Oliver is such an

337
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:19,199
Speaker 1: outstanding talent that they have to take him minus one fifteen.

338
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Speaker 1: There's a lot of value there, And if you want

339
00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:24,120
Speaker 1: a couple more picks of leeway, you could go under

340
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:26,919
Speaker 1: eight and a half at minus two hundred, but Josh

341
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Speaker 1: Allen over three and a half. You can bet that

342
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Speaker 1: at minus two to twenty three. I think that's pretty

343
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Speaker 1: reasonable considering he's not in the discussion for the Jets

344
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Speaker 1: at this point. And if you think that he's not

345
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Speaker 1: even going to be in the discussion for the Raiders

346
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Speaker 1: or whoever is picking number four, you can at over

347
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,159
Speaker 1: four and a half at plus one thirty. And I

348
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Speaker 1: think that is also something that is reasonable to do

349
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Speaker 1: considering all of the other options on the board at

350
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Speaker 1: that point.

351
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I me it'd certainly be a surprise if we

352
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Speaker 2: do see Oliver pop up the number three or number

353
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Speaker 2: four spot. I do think it will be Williams. He

354
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,840
Speaker 2: just seems like the safer pick. I mean, just looking

355
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,560
Speaker 2: at Bama competition versus Houston competition, Williams has an extra

356
00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,520
Speaker 2: anch and extra twenty pounds. I mean you said it before,

357
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Speaker 2: I mean at Oliver, he really has been a consensus

358
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Speaker 2: top five pick almost in every mock draft before the

359
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Speaker 2: end of this season, and just with how good he's

360
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Speaker 2: been since the day he stepped foot on a college field.

361
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:26,480
Speaker 2: But it is surprised to me that we have two

362
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:30,399
Speaker 2: defensive tackles seemingly overtaking Josh Allen, who was kind of

363
00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 2: widely been considered the number two EDG rusher in the

364
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,720
Speaker 2: draft class behind Bosa. I was actually I did an

365
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:39,640
Speaker 2: article looking at fourteen different college football awards to see

366
00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,439
Speaker 2: how the award winners in college went on to do

367
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:44,480
Speaker 2: in the NFL, and one of the metrics I looked

368
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,680
Speaker 2: at was just tohtle number of All pros the awards

369
00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:50,280
Speaker 2: had gotten and Josh Allen, who won the Bendrick Award

370
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,080
Speaker 2: and then the Girsky Trophy, which are awarded to some

371
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,439
Speaker 2: of college football's best overall defensive players, specifically in the

372
00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 2: front seven. Those are the two awards most correlated with

373
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Speaker 2: all Pro success, and Josh Allen did capture those in

374
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Speaker 2: twenty eighteen. So I'm very high on Josh Allen's NFL

375
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 2: potential and it is interesting to me to see him

376
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,360
Speaker 2: kind of get pushed out of the top five. But hey,

377
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,320
Speaker 2: it will be a surprise and it's a crazy time

378
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,280
Speaker 2: of year. So moving on to number five, we're sticking

379
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,640
Speaker 2: out the defensive side of the ball. But now we're

380
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,679
Speaker 2: moving over to linebacker. You have the Buccaneers selecting Devin

381
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,679
Speaker 2: White out of LSU. And if you guys have not

382
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,920
Speaker 2: seen Devin White play, just put on his highlight film

383
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,560
Speaker 2: and you're gonna see some sidelines of sideline speed that

384
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,159
Speaker 2: is truly just special. I mean, we've seen kind of

385
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 2: linebackers in recent years years take a step back to

386
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:37,200
Speaker 2: pass rushers and cornerbacks, maybe deservingly so, but there still

387
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 2: has been the special mold of three down backers like

388
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:43,320
Speaker 2: Rokwan Smith, Ruben Foster pre injury, Jalen Smith, where they

389
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:45,159
Speaker 2: can stop the run, they can cover running backs and

390
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:46,960
Speaker 2: tight ends, and they can rush the quarterback. And that's

391
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,680
Speaker 2: exactly what Devin White is. Matt. Why do you see

392
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,960
Speaker 2: Devin White going number five? And I'm also curious, I

393
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,200
Speaker 2: agree with you, but why do you have Devin White

394
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 2: ahead of Devin Bush from Michigan.

395
00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 1: So it's a few things with White. To the Buccaneers,

396
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 1: I mean, they have a need at the position, and

397
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 1: I mean I think Evan Silva has said that, like

398
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 1: it's the worst kept secret of this draft that they

399
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 1: really want Devin White. I would have slotted them with

400
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 1: a pass rusher. In fact, I think I did in

401
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 1: my first mock draft, because I think that's just a

402
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 1: bigger need and it's a more impactful position. And if

403
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 1: Josh Allen falls below number four, if he falls to

404
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,959
Speaker 1: the bucks, I might have to rethink this because I just,

405
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:31,119
Speaker 1: I mean, I can't see a reasonable NFL decision maker.

406
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 1: Of course he knows if how many of those there are,

407
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 1: but I just I don't know if I can see

408
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 1: someone actually saying, no, I prefer Devin White to Josh Allen.

409
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,959
Speaker 1: So I might make that change. I don't know if

410
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:49,640
Speaker 1: I will, though, in terms of White over the other

411
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 1: Devon Devin Bush. The thing that's interesting is that they

412
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,479
Speaker 1: entered the combine I think with White as the clear

413
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 1: top prospect at the position, but like Bush, I think,

414
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 1: was much bigger and much more athletic than people thought,

415
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 1: like in comparison to White. So like White is only

416
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 1: an inch taller, he's only three pounds heavier. He ran

417
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 1: I believe, like a four point four one or four

418
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 1: point four to two. Bush ran a four point four

419
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,399
Speaker 1: to two or four point four to three, like they

420
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:23,399
Speaker 1: were almost identical in terms of like some of like

421
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 1: the key metrics that you look at. So what's amazing

422
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 1: is how similar they are in that regard. And yet

423
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,919
Speaker 1: even though everyone says that Bush is a very good

424
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,879
Speaker 1: number two option to Devin White, like maybe even the

425
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,160
Speaker 1: guy that would be preferred, considering that you can get

426
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,639
Speaker 1: him for a little bit cheaper. Literally, all mock drafters

427
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 1: still have White ahead of Bush, Like I haven't seen

428
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,360
Speaker 1: one who has Bush ahead of White. So you can

429
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 1: actually bet first linebacker off the board. You can bet

430
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: on White minus four eighty. I've actually seen that number

431
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 1: as high as a thousand at some book. So you

432
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,880
Speaker 1: have to chop around a little bit. But I think

433
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 1: you actually can find that prop at a reasonable number,

434
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 1: and I think it's worth it just considering how highly

435
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 1: people think of White, and even though people like Bush,

436
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 1: the consistency with which everyone is projecting White to go

437
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 1: ahead of Bush.

438
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 2: Good stuff, Good stuff. All right, We had four straight

439
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 2: defensive players come off the board, but number six you

440
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 2: have the Giants addressing their post Eli Manning. No one

441
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 2: knows when that era will be, but whenever Eli Manning

442
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 2: hangs it up. You're looking at Dwayne Haskins from the

443
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 2: Ohio State University. Taken over under center, Haskins led the

444
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 2: nation with fifty touchdowns last season. I mean, Ohio State,

445
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:45,679
Speaker 2: they do do a lot of those pop passes and

446
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 2: spread concepts. About the same time, he did demonstrate the

447
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 2: ability to make NFL level throws all over the field,

448
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,120
Speaker 2: absolutely tore up Michigan, had a great game against Washington.

449
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 2: Only problem is Haskins only had fourteen starts and he

450
00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 2: really hasn't shown much of an ability to create once

451
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 2: breaks down, So there's questions on how he'll deal with

452
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 2: NFL pressure and things of that nature. So, Matt, why

453
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 2: do you think Haskins will be Eli Minning's successor over

454
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 2: the likes of Daniel Jones or there I say, Drew Locke, Man.

455
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't at this point. I so the

456
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 1: last mak I did it was released on Wednesday of

457
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 1: last week. And I mean, I just I was so

458
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 1: resistant to Daniel Jones as a first rounder, just because

459
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 1: I don't think he actually has that that talent, but

460
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 1: NFL people presumably they think he does. And I'm not gonna,

461
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 1: you know, like bang my head against the wall and

462
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,199
Speaker 1: you know, like be wrong about this, uh, you know

463
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 1: when you're actually betting on it. So I mean, I

464
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 1: can't believe it. But I think this is going to

465
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,640
Speaker 1: come down to if if Josh Allen falls to the Giants,

466
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 1: which like it is possible that he actually could fall

467
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: to number six if he falls to the Giants, I

468
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,439
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a decision between Josh Allen

469
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: or Daniel Jones. Part of me thinks that it might

470
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 1: be a smoke screen and that they are interested in

471
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,360
Speaker 1: Dwayne Haskins. But and we've seen that reported out there.

472
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,919
Speaker 1: But I mean, you know, we've also seen reported by

473
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 1: a pretty credible source, Charles Robinson. I mean he came

474
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 1: out and said, like, there is one team who has

475
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones as the number one quarterback on their board,

476
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 1: and you know who that team is? You know, like

477
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 1: he can't say it. I mean, I just he couldn't say,

478
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 1: I guess because of his source or whatever, he couldn't

479
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 1: say which team it was. But literally no other team

480
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:40,639
Speaker 1: has been linked to Daniel Jones the way that the

481
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 1: Giants have happened. And before that, rap sheet reported that

482
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,640
Speaker 1: there are more than a few people in the NFL

483
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 1: expecting the Giants to draft a quarterback at number six. Now,

484
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 1: I mean rap sheet has his misses, you know, so

485
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 1: it's hard to know exactly how much stock you want

486
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 1: to put in that, but it just makes so much

487
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 1: sense for them to address the quarterback position. Like, even

488
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 1: if they have Daniel Jones as their number one guy,

489
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 1: and even if they know that they are higher on

490
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: him than the rest of the league, there are still

491
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:19,120
Speaker 1: teams before their number seventeen pick that would potentially draft him, right,

492
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: maybe the Broncos at ten, maybe the Bengals at eleven.

493
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 1: Maybe you have the Dolphins at thirteen, and then the

494
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 1: Redskins in their own division at fifteen. Like, if they

495
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 1: have a quarterback they really prefer, they can't pass on

496
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 1: him at number six and risk him going to someone else,

497
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 1: especially because everyone knows that that is the guy that

498
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 1: they want. So I think, in my updated mock, I

499
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 1: am going to have Daniel Jones going to the Giants

500
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 1: at number six, and I can't believe it. But like this,

501
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:56,719
Speaker 1: this isn't a mock about what I would do. This

502
00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: is a mock about what I think the idiotic Giants

503
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: might do. So that's that's where we are. So I mean,

504
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: if you want to hedge a little bit and think

505
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: that this really is going to be Haskins and that

506
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 1: like all of this hype for Daniel Jones is basically

507
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 1: just a smoke screen, that's fine. You can bet on it.

508
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 1: You can bet Haskins at plus three fifty to the Giants.

509
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,679
Speaker 1: You could also bet Allen plus six hundred to the

510
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 1: Giants if he falls to the Giants at number six.

511
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,959
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know, like it's hard to imagine

512
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 1: him falling to number seven, you know what I mean.

513
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 1: So if the Giants are there, there might be some

514
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,199
Speaker 1: value in Allen at plus six hundred. I'm not going

515
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 1: to bet that. I'm also not going to bet on

516
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 1: Haskins plus three fifty, but yeah, that's an option if

517
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 1: you are thinking that the Daniel Jones thing is not

518
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 1: going to happen. You can also bet on the Giants

519
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,640
Speaker 1: to draft a quarterback with their first pick at plus

520
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,360
Speaker 1: one seventy five. That might be the way to go.

521
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 1: You can also bet on Daniel Jones. This one's really interesting.

522
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 1: I think you can bet on him to be the

523
00:26:56,320 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 1: second quarterback off the board at plus three fifty. I

524
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,400
Speaker 1: think that's quite a bit of value if you are

525
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: buying that Daniel Jones actually is the guy the Giants

526
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 1: are looking to draft. Again, I don't want to say

527
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 1: you have to assume they're going to draft him with

528
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: their first pick, but you have to assume that they're

529
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 1: going to be aggressive in getting him given that they

530
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,120
Speaker 1: have two picks. So I think there is some value

531
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 1: there in Daniel Jones at plus three to fifty as

532
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: the number two quarterback off the board. There is an

533
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 1: arbitrage opportunity. Since this is I guess the spot to

534
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 1: talk about Haskins, there is an arbitrage opportunity with him

535
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 1: in terms of his draft position. At one book you

536
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 1: can bet on him over ten and a half at

537
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 1: plus one twenty five and another book at under plus

538
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 1: one hundred. So that's one thing to consider. And if

539
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 1: you think it is likely that Haskins goes to the

540
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: Giants or maybe the Broncos at ten, Bengals at eleven,

541
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,360
Speaker 1: Dolphins at thirteen, all of them could take a quarterback.

542
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 1: If you think that is likely, there is value in

543
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 1: betting his draft position under thirteen and a half at

544
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: minus one fifty, and I think that is probable. I

545
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 1: don't think he's going to fall out of the top thirteen.

546
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 1: I mean it could happen. But even though the Dolphins

547
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,919
Speaker 1: are like in full on, like tank mode, you have

548
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 1: to think that they would really consider taking Haskins if

549
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 1: he falls to them at thirteen. So I think there

550
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 1: is value in Haskins under thirteen and a half.

551
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 2: I like those props. And last thing on a Daniel Jones.

552
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 2: So I wanted to get an idea of where Jones

553
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,160
Speaker 2: as a collegiate quarterbacks. So I heard that he helped

554
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 2: elevate his teammates at Duke and his coach was even

555
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 2: giving Peyton Manning comparisons with his pre snap reads. I mean,

556
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 2: just ridiculous notions like that. So I want to get

557
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 2: the guy a chance. So I want to head. I

558
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 2: took the total career in college yards per attempt among

559
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 2: the last sixteen first round quarterbacks just last five years.

560
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 2: The bottom three were Jared Goff and Josh Allen, who

561
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 2: each averaged seven point eight yards per attempt, and then

562
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 2: we had Paxton Lynch at seven point four. No one

563
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 2: is even close to under seven except Daniel Jones, who's

564
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 2: at six point four yards per a tempt throughout his career.

565
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 2: A four yard underneath any other first round quarterback we've

566
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 2: seen in the last five years. I was incredibly out

567
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 2: on Josh Allen going into the last season, and I

568
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 2: probably should have given him a little more respect with

569
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 2: his overall athleticism and big arm. But I'm saying right now,

570
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 2: I am fully out on Daniel Jones this year and forever.

571
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 2: He will not be a gun on full quarterback. And

572
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 2: you can put that in the newspaper headlines, folks, because

573
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 2: it's happening.

574
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, Josh Allen, I mean, he looks like Andrew Luck

575
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: in comparison to Daniel Jones. It's just, yeah, it's befuddeling.

576
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 1: But this is where we are.

577
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you that. I mean, the mock draft,

578
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 2: you're trying to predict what they're gonna do. You're not

579
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 2: giving your what you would do, so I respect it there.

580
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 2: So all right, moving on to Jaguars at number seven.

581
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 2: Staying on the offensive side of the ball, offensive tackle

582
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 2: from Florida, Juwan Taylor. He played mostly right tackle in college,

583
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 2: but we're talking about a three year se he started here.

584
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 2: Longtime Brown stud left tackle Joe Thomas has spoken really

585
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 2: highly about Taylor and overall I mean teams in the

586
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 2: top ten. I think in general it's probably safe to

587
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 2: assume they don't have the best offensive line because they're

588
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 2: picking in the top ten in the the draft, and

589
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 2: anytime you can get an elite offensive tackle, it's a

590
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 2: good thing to do. But Matt, I do wonder how

591
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 2: elite is Taylor as the tackle prospect, do you think?

592
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 2: Because I do feel like college football's increasing reliance on

593
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 2: kind of air raid and spread offenses, it has made

594
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 2: the transition for offensive lineman a little bit tougher because

595
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 2: they're just so used to pass blocking all the time.

596
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 2: But is he the real deal?

597
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 1: It's weird. He's not the number one tackle on my board.

598
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 1: I still have Jonah Williams ahead of him, but there

599
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: are people who are talking about Williams as a guard

600
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 1: or maybe a potential center just because of his arm length.

601
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 1: But I thought Williams was pretty impressive last year. And

602
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, Taylor is a right tackle. I don't

603
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 1: want to say he's like just exclusively a right tackle,

604
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 1: because maybe he could have some potential on the blind side,

605
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 1: but he's pretty much a right tackle, and he's much

606
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: more of a run blocker than a pass blocker, but

607
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,239
Speaker 1: I think that fits in with the Jags and what

608
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 1: they want to do, like they need help at right tackle,

609
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: and this is a run first team and he is

610
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 1: widely regarded as the best run blocking tackle in this draft.

611
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 1: Andre Dillard is someone who is interesting to me out

612
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 1: of Washington State because I think he's clearly the best

613
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: pass blocking tackle in the draft. And I think I

614
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: did at one point have him mocked to the Jags

615
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 1: at number seven. But there are just so many people

616
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 1: who are hyping up Taylor, saying that he is a

617
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 1: top ten guy, specifically linking him to the Jags. And

618
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: these are like people who's mocks I respect, but then

619
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: also people in the industry who don't do mocks, but

620
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 1: who just you know, kind of analyze these players. And

621
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 1: they are talking about Juan Taylor as a guy who

622
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 1: really should be in the top ten. And you see

623
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: that reflected in the props that are in the market. Right,

624
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: So Taylor's draft position that line is seven and a half.

625
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 1: You can be over at plus one hundred, you can

626
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: bet under at minus one twenty. I think that's pretty tight.

627
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 1: So I don't really like I'm going to stay away

628
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 1: from that. And you can draft, you can bet on

629
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 1: him as the first offensive lineman drafted at minus one

630
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 1: forty three. I'm not really a fan of that either,

631
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,959
Speaker 1: because I think it is possible that Dillard could end

632
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 1: up going ahead of him just because of his superiority

633
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: as a pass blocker. But I mean, I think what

634
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: you see reflected in the market is the likelihood of

635
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 1: him going to the Jags at seven.

636
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's definitely plenty of teams in the top fifteen

637
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 2: that could use one of these offensive linemen. But yeah,

638
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 2: I'm with you, it is tough to tell which of

639
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 2: these guys will ultimately be the first one selected.

640
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 1: I mean, one thing that one thing that I do

641
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 1: like about Jiwan Taylor is that he's pretty young, so

642
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 1: there's a lot of potential there for him to develop.

643
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 1: He's a true junior. He was a three year starter

644
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 1: in the SEC, which I mean, that's like, that's not easy.

645
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 1: That's got to be respected. Again, he was a total

646
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: dominator as a run blocker, which fits with what the

647
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 1: Jags want to do. And I think I read that

648
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 1: he was like pretty chunky whenever he entered Florida and

649
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: like he's just totally remade his body with strength training,

650
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 1: working out, nutrition, and even supplements that he got through Roman.

651
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not saying that he had a problem

652
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 1: with corectile dysfunction. I'm just imagining that if he had

653
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 1: taken whatever the good doctors at Roman give their patients,

654
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 1: he could have improved his performance while exerting himself in

655
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 1: the gym or you know wherever. I bet he visited

656
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 1: Roman because it is an easy way to get checked

657
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: out by a doctor and treated online. Roman is a

658
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: one stop shop. Licensed US physicians can diagnose, ed and

659
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 1: ship medication right to your door. With Roman, there are

660
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 1: no waiting rooms, awkward face to face conversations, or uncomfortable

661
00:33:56,760 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 1: trips to the pharmacy. You can handle everything discreetly online.

662
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 1: All you have to do is visit get Roman dot com,

663
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: slash NFL pod, full out a brief medical onboarding, chat

664
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 1: with the doctor, and get FDA approved EED meds delivered

665
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: to your door in unmarked packaging. Guys, go online and

666
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:13,959
Speaker 1: get checked by the doctor. Get into the end zone

667
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 1: with Roman. Wait a minute, you know what we should

668
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,720
Speaker 1: change that to something more befitting of an offensive tackle

669
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:22,839
Speaker 1: pancake A defender with Roman for a free online visit

670
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 1: go to get roman dot com slash NFL pod. That is,

671
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 1: get Roman dot com slash NFL pod for a free

672
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 1: online visit Get Roman dot com slash NFL Pod. Ian.

673
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,320
Speaker 1: Let's get back to the mock draft.

674
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 2: I was slightly offended when you cut me off, and

675
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,399
Speaker 2: I realize you're going into an award winning ad read,

676
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,399
Speaker 2: so it's all good. You are forgiven, but thank you.

677
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 2: As I was saying back to the number eight pick

678
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 2: the Detroit Lions, we're going back to the defensive side

679
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 2: of the ball, and for right now you had Rashan Gary.

680
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 2: But as we'll get to that's probably changing because while

681
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 2: Gary has explained just ridiculous athleticism for his size and

682
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 2: and coming out of high school, he's won the nation's

683
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 2: top recruits, so at anytime his football services have been available,

684
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 2: he's been a highly sought after prospect. But we did

685
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 2: get reports from rap Sheet that he's dealing with a

686
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 2: label terror. Specifically, he suffered this injury on his shoulder

687
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 2: from college, but most reportedly believe he can play this

688
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 2: season through the injury and then possibly a pairt with

689
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 2: surgery afterwards. But this is something that's going to have

690
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: to be managed and obviously teams will take into his

691
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 2: account with his draft stocks. So Matt, what do you

692
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,799
Speaker 2: think here about pick number eight and Gary's draft stock

693
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 2: in particular.

694
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, so both with pick number eight and pick number

695
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: nine going to the Bills, there's just a lot of

696
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 1: uncertainty from the monck that I did to the monk

697
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: that I'm going to publish on Thursday morning. So I

698
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 1: had at Oliver going to the Bills at nine, and

699
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,799
Speaker 1: obviously like that pick just seems wiped out, presuming he's

700
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 1: going in the in the top five. So yeah, with

701
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,399
Speaker 1: Gary specifically, I am almost certainly going to move him

702
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 1: down on this news because they were they were saign

703
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 1: I questions about him anyway, So he wasn't nearly as

704
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 1: productive in college as people would have expected him to be.

705
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 1: I don't know how important that is for edge rushers,

706
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 1: Like what he's been. Most predictive of success in transitioning

707
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 1: to the NFL for edge rushers is just pure athleticism,

708
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 1: and Gary clearly has that, like he was an athletic

709
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 1: Marvel at the combine. But man, it's it's a situation

710
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 1: with that labor where I could see it knocking him

711
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:33,479
Speaker 1: down just far enough where there are teams who maybe

712
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 1: would have been interested in him and maybe would have

713
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,439
Speaker 1: overlooked his lack of production in college, who now don't

714
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: want to have to deal with something else. And on

715
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: top of that, there are questions about I mean, I

716
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 1: say he's an edge defender, but that's not like written

717
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 1: in stone, Like he might be presumably too big to

718
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 1: play as a pure edge rusher, So there are questions

719
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 1: about whether he's he's an edge, whether he's a three

720
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 1: four defensive tackle or a four to three tackle like.

721
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,760
Speaker 1: There are questions about how he would fit into any scheme,

722
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 1: And for me mocking him to the Lions, that was

723
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 1: something of a virtue in that in Matt Patricia's defense,

724
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 1: which wants to be able to use multiple fronts, he

725
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 1: could be a guy who could play in multiple fronts

726
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 1: and who could play multiple positions in different fronts. But

727
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 1: with the shoulder injury injury, I'm probably going to be

728
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 1: pushing him down. So his over under is nine and

729
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 1: a half over minus two sixty seven under plus one

730
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 1: eighty five, like minus two sixty seven might be a

731
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 1: little rich for me, But if I were to lean

732
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 1: one direction at this point, I would probably be leaning

733
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 1: over one guy I had thought about was Montes Sweat,

734
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 1: but he's also dealing with his own issue. He has

735
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 1: a heart condition. Before the heart condition issue was really

736
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 1: brought up, Sweat to the Lions at number eight was

737
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 1: a popular pick, and you can see that based on

738
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,560
Speaker 1: the fact that the over under in the market for

739
00:37:57,680 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 1: him is seven and a half. But now if you

740
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 1: want to bet the over, you have to lay minus

741
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 1: four hundred. So I did write an article on the

742
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 1: Action Network about I would take the over, but I

743
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 1: wouldn't bet it any more than minus four hundred. And

744
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 1: then so there's a question of what do you do

745
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,760
Speaker 1: with the Lions and the Bills and t J Howkinson,

746
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,799
Speaker 1: the tight end from Iowa, is one potential way you

747
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 1: could go. And he has been mocked both to the

748
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 1: Lions and to the Bills, and it makes sense. The

749
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 1: Lions tried to trade for Rob Gronkowski last offseason, and

750
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 1: Hockinson is a lot like grock just in terms of

751
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: his style of play. He's also mocked to the Bills.

752
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 1: They need some tight end help, and you know, you

753
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,360
Speaker 1: could see how he could fit in with what the

754
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,279
Speaker 1: Bills want to do. He would be a really good

755
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: receiving option for Josh Allen, but he would also be

756
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:50,879
Speaker 1: very strong in run defense, start and run blocking, so

757
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 1: you could see him going to the bills. And his

758
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:56,319
Speaker 1: over under is nine and a half, so you can

759
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 1: bet under at plus one hundred. There's also an arbitrage

760
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: opportunity can bet the over at plus one twenty at

761
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:05,720
Speaker 1: another book. But under for Howkinson at plus one hundred

762
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 1: is interesting. I'm somewhat doubtful that I'm going to have

763
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 1: him mocked in the top ten. It almost never happens

764
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 1: with tight ends that they are drafted in the top ten.

765
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 1: It happened with Ebron four years ago. But you know

766
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 1: Oj Howard, even just two years ago, people thought he

767
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 1: was basically a perfect prospect that he might go in

768
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,800
Speaker 1: the top ten, and he wasn't draftedun till number nineteen.

769
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 1: So I don't know if I'm going to be betting

770
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 1: on Hockinson's draft position, so I might take the arbitrage

771
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 1: opportunity there. One thing I will be looking to do

772
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 1: potentially is Hockinson as the first tight end off the

773
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 1: board at this point. The best number out there is

774
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 1: minus three forty five, which does feel kind of aggressive,

775
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:47,839
Speaker 1: But I have a bet with Davis Maddock that he

776
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 1: will be the first off the board, and that's just

777
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 1: straight up. At like plus one hundred. You can bet

778
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 1: on Noah Fant at plus six point fifty as the

779
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 1: first tighten off the board, and that is potentially interesting.

780
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,839
Speaker 1: You can also bet on any tight end other than

781
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 1: Hockinson as the first tight end off the board at

782
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 1: plus seven fifty, and that might be the way to

783
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 1: go because if it's not Hockinson, it is one hundred

784
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 1: percent Fans who will be the first tight end drafted.

785
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 1: So there is the opportunity there for arbitrage. There are

786
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 1: lots of ways that you can approach that. I don't

787
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 1: know if I would do Hockinson at minus three forty

788
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 1: five as the first tight end off the board because

789
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:32,240
Speaker 1: it is possible that a team could prefer Fans because

790
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 1: of his his superior athleticism and they might be looking

791
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 1: for more of a move tight end instead of the

792
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 1: inline guy. But like, if you are sold on Howkinson

793
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 1: as the guy who is going first, minus three forty

794
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 1: five isn't a horrible number to find.

795
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:50,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with there's definitely between Hawkinson and Fan.

796
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 2: I mean, IRV Smith Junior might be the kind of

797
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 2: consensus number three tight end, but he's looking kind of

798
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 2: best case will be ended around one. I don't think

799
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 2: he'll be competing for one of these top upper top

800
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 2: ten or fifteen spots. Big thing with Hawkinston, I do

801
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 2: wonder if we'll see a little bit of a let's

802
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 2: see like a Fomo effect from the NFL, like they

803
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 2: don't want miss out on this next really good Iowa

804
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 2: tight end, because I mean, look, Hawkinson just had he

805
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 2: had last season, had forty nine catches for seven hundred

806
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 2: and sixty yards and six touchdowns. Those receptions in yards

807
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:23,760
Speaker 2: were more than George Kittle totaled in his entire Iowa career.

808
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, we figured out that, especially

809
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 2: in college, I think it's especially hard for tight ends,

810
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 2: even if you are really good, to get them out

811
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 2: targets needed to put us some gaudy numbers. So it

812
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 2: will be interesting to see in future years as tight

813
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 2: ends continue to become more and more involved in offenses,

814
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 2: the teams are more willing to draft them higher up.

815
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm with you now, it's tough to say

816
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 2: if it'll be top ten for the time being, but

817
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 2: the talent is definitely there all right now for the

818
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,320
Speaker 2: number ten pick. You thought we were done talking about quarterbacks,

819
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 2: you were wrong, because we have John Elway taking another one,

820
00:41:56,560 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 2: Drew Locke from Missouri. Look, he's he's pretty much like

821
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 2: probably exactly what John Elway wants in a quarterback. He's

822
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:06,600
Speaker 2: got a big arm, he's got the size, the quote

823
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 2: unquote look of an NFL quarterback that you know, some

824
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 2: of these old school heads will just love. Concerns are

825
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 2: kind of sent around his downfield accuracy and also just

826
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 2: how he'll perform against higher level competition. Yes, he played

827
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 2: at Missouri, but he won eleven and twenty career against

828
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 2: the SEC and one to nine versus ranked opponents. So

829
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,240
Speaker 2: obviously quarterbacks don't have everything to do with wins and losses.

830
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 2: But it is a little bit concerning to see that

831
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 2: pitofoil performance. But Matt, explain what you mean when you

832
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 2: send your mock draft that lock is the quinteth cential,

833
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 2: non analytics pick.

834
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's just a you know, the strong armed guy

835
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 1: where if you look at the numbers, he'd be like, yeah,

836
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: he wasn't highly accurate, he didn't have a good adjusted

837
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 1: yards pertend, not a great runner, like there were just

838
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 1: lots of things not to like about him, But if

839
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 1: you were just looking at the tape, you know, and

840
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, yeah, that guy has some traits, like

841
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 1: he's a quote unquote toolsy quarterback. Like I would expect

842
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 1: an old school quarterback like Elway to look at someone

843
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:10,839
Speaker 1: like Locke and be like, yes, that is a guy

844
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 1: who can play quarterback for my team. So I don't know.

845
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 1: That's that's kind of where I am. And there has

846
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 1: been a lot of smoke about the Broncos really liking

847
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 1: Drew Lock. That said, we do have a you know,

848
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 1: a report from Daniel Jeremiah saying that he is expecting

849
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:31,440
Speaker 1: or that others in the league are expecting the Broncos,

850
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 1: in addition to the Dolphins, to wait on quarterback. You know,

851
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 1: maybe they like someone like Will Greer and maybe they

852
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 1: think they can get him in the second round. So

853
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 1: maybe even though they like Drew Lock. You know, this

854
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 1: is John Elway presumably, you know, drafting for his job.

855
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 1: If things don't work out this year, he might be gone.

856
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:53,360
Speaker 1: So maybe he doesn't want to draft a quarterback with

857
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 1: his first pick just to sit that guy behind another

858
00:43:56,760 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: quarterback he traded for and have that sit suation go

859
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 1: against him. So I might go with Devin Bush here

860
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 1: in my updated mock, or I might go offensive line,

861
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 1: which is what I did in the first mock. I did,

862
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 1: like in February, I went with an offensive lineman, thinking like,

863
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:16,760
Speaker 1: there's no there's no decent quarterback here on the board,

864
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:19,919
Speaker 1: they're not going to reach. But then the Drew Lock

865
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: thing kind of blew up. So I don't know. But

866
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:26,239
Speaker 1: if it's true that they are truly going to wait

867
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 1: on the position, I think it's either Devin Bush. You

868
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 1: could see Vic Fango wanting a linebacker in the middle

869
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 1: of that defense, and I think Bush would be a

870
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 1: good candidate, or maybe they go offensive line. And if

871
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 1: you think that it's a coin flip between Devin White

872
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:42,919
Speaker 1: and Devin Bush in terms of who is the first

873
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 1: linebacker drafted, you can get someone other than White at

874
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:49,799
Speaker 1: plus five hundred, and you know there. I think there's

875
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 1: there's value there if you think that those two guys

876
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 1: are really close and that it is a true coin

877
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 1: flip in terms of who will go first. So that

878
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 1: might be something to consider. I'm not going to do

879
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 1: that because I've like I'm already invested in White and

880
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 1: I invested in him before the line moved. But yeah,

881
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:11,840
Speaker 1: I think White is. I mean, they're similar, but I

882
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:13,399
Speaker 1: think White is going to be the first guy off

883
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 1: the board. In terms of Drew Lock. For his draft position,

884
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 1: there are a number of numbers out there ranging from

885
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 1: ten and a half to thirteen and a half, and

886
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:26,800
Speaker 1: you can bet under ten and a half at plus

887
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:30,280
Speaker 1: one forty. So I mean, at this point, the market

888
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:33,799
Speaker 1: is indicating it is not expecting him to be drafted

889
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:36,320
Speaker 1: at number ten, right, It's not expecting him to be

890
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: drafted by the Broncos, which is I think a decent

891
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 1: indication for why I should move him in my next draft.

892
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 1: But that said, the market is expecting him to be

893
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 1: drafted somewhere between like picks eleven, twelve and thirteen, because

894
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:53,319
Speaker 1: over thirteen and a half is plus one ten. So

895
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 1: that is kind of like the range of where the

896
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 1: market is settling for Drew Lock. I don't know how

897
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:00,840
Speaker 1: much stock I want to put in that in like

898
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 1: that representation for the market and what's happening in different books,

899
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 1: but that is kind of the range for where he

900
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 1: might go. One thing that is interesting, there is a

901
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 1: prop out there for Haskins versus Lock, and so if

902
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 1: you prefer Haskins, you can bet on him at minus

903
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 1: one fifty five. If you prefer Lock, you can bet

904
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 1: on him at plus one fifteen. I prefer Haskins, but

905
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 1: I'm probably going to stay away from that line in general,

906
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 1: just because I'm not I feel like I don't have

907
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 1: an accurate sense at this point of how the NFL

908
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 1: is viewing Lock or Haskins.

909
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of mystery going on behind Kyler

910
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 2: Murray at the moment. Make sure you all go on

911
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 2: Action Network check out Matt's full mock draft. And now

912
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 2: you said Thursday morning, you'll have your final.

913
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:46,360
Speaker 1: Update there, Yes, Thursday morning.

914
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:48,879
Speaker 2: Thursday morning, make sure you check that out. We still

915
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 2: do have some more props go over from picks eleven

916
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 2: through thirty two. So next proper going to look at

917
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 2: is how many Round one quarterbacks will it be? Right now,

918
00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 2: the over unders at three and a half. So from

919
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:04,359
Speaker 2: my understanding, Kyler Murray Dwayne Haskins are sure fired. Don't

920
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 2: even need to really discuss it. It seems like there's

921
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 2: playing a smoke around Drew Locke and Daniel Jones. Then

922
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 2: we haven't even talked about Will Greer who's kind of

923
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:15,440
Speaker 2: analytic community's dark horse in the race to potentially be

924
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 2: a first round pick, even if he's a little bit older,

925
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 2: doesn't have all the physical tools, so could see potentially

926
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 2: as many as five quarterbacks go in the first round.

927
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 2: But I don't know, Matt, this three and a half

928
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 2: total seems a little bit low. What do you think?

929
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:31,120
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean, I you know, for over a month

930
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 1: with saying like this number just fills off because I

931
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:36,959
Speaker 1: just didn't buy Daniel Jones. But you know, now, unfortunately

932
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 1: I'm buying Daniel Jones. So yeah, you can find this

933
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:43,720
Speaker 1: as low as minus two fifty, and at some books,

934
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 1: I think it's as high as like four hundred, So

935
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 1: you kind of have to to shop around for it.

936
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:51,800
Speaker 1: If you are just obstinate in your belief that Daniel

937
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,399
Speaker 1: Jones will not be a first rounder. You can bet

938
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 1: under three and a half of plus three hundred, So

939
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 1: you have to shop around, but you can find value

940
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:03,240
Speaker 1: on either sides of this line. And then for Will Greer,

941
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 1: it's interesting, as you mentioned, maybe he could sneak into

942
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 1: Round one. I kind of doubt it, but his draft

943
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 1: position over under is thirty seven and a half, which

944
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 1: is pretty close to round one, you can bet the

945
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 1: under at plus one forty five, and I am taking

946
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 1: that side of it. I like him. I think he's

947
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:24,840
Speaker 1: the number three quarterback in this class in terms of skill,

948
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:28,719
Speaker 1: and maybe a team like the Patriots will draft him

949
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 1: at number thirty two so they can have that fifth

950
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 1: year option on him. Maybe they trade down a little

951
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 1: bit and draft him. I think he has some real

952
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 1: NFL potential, But I don't know. Thirty seven and a

953
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:43,359
Speaker 1: half like, look at it. Look at it this way.

954
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 1: Last year was a really good year for quarterbacks and

955
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:50,319
Speaker 1: there were five of them drafted under thirty seven and

956
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:52,799
Speaker 1: a half. I don't I mean, this year doesn't come

957
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,839
Speaker 1: close to last year's quarterback class. I don't know. If

958
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:58,239
Speaker 1: I want to say Will Greer as the fifth quarterback

959
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:00,640
Speaker 1: is going to be drafted under thirty six and a half,

960
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 1: I just I kind of don't buy it. So I'm

961
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 1: willing to take under plus one forty five.

962
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:09,160
Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm on the underside with you as well. On

963
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 2: that one one position we haven't talked about so far,

964
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:14,400
Speaker 2: as running back, and in your mock draft, you do

965
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 2: not have a running back going round one, although you

966
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:20,400
Speaker 2: did list Alabama running back Josh Jacobs as your pretty

967
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 2: much first potential Round one player that could fall. I've

968
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 2: seen Jacobs going to the Colts and the Eagles contours the

969
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 2: bottom of the first round and some different mocks, but

970
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 2: I don't know if either of those teams. I've just

971
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 2: kind of always prioritized committee backfields are going to make

972
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:36,959
Speaker 2: that big of a reach. But this really is something

973
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 2: we need to pay attention to and kind of draft

974
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:41,879
Speaker 2: capital in general, because there's only been eight first round

975
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 2: rookie running backs over the last five years, and all

976
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:46,839
Speaker 2: of them except for Show Penny, went on to finish

977
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 2: in the top thirty in touches. So if you're getting

978
00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:50,360
Speaker 2: a first round picks, beoun on you and you're a

979
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 2: rookie running back, you're going to be a fantasy factor

980
00:49:52,600 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 2: from year one, So make sure we keep an eye

981
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 2: on that. But I mean, Matt, we got a bunch

982
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 2: of different props here at Jacobs. Where's the value?

983
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:03,000
Speaker 1: I mean, just from a perspective of kind of thinking

984
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 1: about fantasy and like evaluating him. I mean, Jacob's like

985
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 1: he wasn't an accumulator at Alabama. He never had a

986
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 1: season of over a thousand scrimmage yards. You know, much

987
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 1: less rushing yards, so it just seems almost sacrilegious to

988
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 1: think of him as a first round pick. But he's

989
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:21,319
Speaker 1: going to be a twenty one year old rookie and

990
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 1: he's going to be the first quarter I mean, the

991
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 1: first running back off the board. So even like from

992
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:29,440
Speaker 1: a fantasy perspective, he's going to have value by the

993
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 1: time the draft is over. He will probably be the

994
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,840
Speaker 1: number one pick in rookie drafts, just because I mean,

995
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:38,400
Speaker 1: a twenty one year old running back who's selected in

996
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 1: the top forty, top fifty, that guy probably deserves to

997
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 1: be at the top of the board. So Josh Jacobs,

998
00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:46,239
Speaker 1: you can bet on him. Minus four hundred is the

999
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 1: first running back off off the board. That number is

1000
00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 1: way off. No one else is even coming close in

1001
00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 1: the conversation as the first running back off the board,

1002
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,800
Speaker 1: and in a stronger class, I would be pretty vehement

1003
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 1: and not betting that line. But this is not a

1004
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:04,520
Speaker 1: strong class, So this is kind of where we are.

1005
00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:07,360
Speaker 1: So I think this number should be closer to minus

1006
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:10,720
Speaker 1: one thousand. Like I mean, I think there's a ninety

1007
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:13,919
Speaker 1: five percent chance maybe more, that Jacobs is the first

1008
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:15,960
Speaker 1: running back off the board. And like I'm trying to

1009
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:19,720
Speaker 1: be conservative in that number. So yeah, this number minus

1010
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 1: four hundred a lot of value there. And then you

1011
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:27,280
Speaker 1: can actually bet on one and a half running backs

1012
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:30,640
Speaker 1: in the first round, and this number is minus six

1013
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 1: twenty five. Like this feels like as big of a

1014
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:38,239
Speaker 1: lock as any prop that is out there. No other

1015
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:43,520
Speaker 1: running back in any mock is getting serious consideration as

1016
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:46,320
Speaker 1: a first rounder, So I mean, it's a lot of

1017
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 1: juice to lay minus six twenty five, but like this

1018
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 1: number should be like minus two thousand, so there's there's

1019
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 1: a lot of value there. You can bet on exactly

1020
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 1: one running back. So if Jacobs is drafted in the

1021
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:01,719
Speaker 1: first round, it's a push. If not, it's a win

1022
00:52:02,400 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 1: minus four hundred. I would rather go minus six twenty

1023
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 1: five and bet on the one and a half. And

1024
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 1: then if you don't think that Jacobs is a first

1025
00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:12,640
Speaker 1: round running back, if you think it's going to be

1026
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 1: around a coin flip, which looking at the mock drafts

1027
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 1: that are out there, but that is roughly what it is.

1028
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 1: Like he's there in like fifty or sixty percent of

1029
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,760
Speaker 1: the drafts. So if you think that it's a coin flip,

1030
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:30,840
Speaker 1: there's value in betting under half point five at plus

1031
00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:34,239
Speaker 1: one forty. The draft position is interesting, thirty four and

1032
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 1: a half, the over is plus two twenty, the under

1033
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 1: his minus two seventy. There are some different numbers out there,

1034
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:43,839
Speaker 1: there's a pretty widespread so one number that is out

1035
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 1: there is thirty four and a half and the over

1036
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 1: is plus two twenty. Like, if you think he is

1037
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 1: not a Round one guy, I think it makes a

1038
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 1: lot of sense to bet the over right because you

1039
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:56,799
Speaker 1: hit it unless someone drafts him at thirty three or

1040
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 1: thirty four, So you're basically with that betting he's not

1041
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:02,840
Speaker 1: drafted in the first round. And then there's another line

1042
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 1: out there at twenty four and a half, so a

1043
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:08,279
Speaker 1: pretty big spread there. One thing you potentially could look

1044
00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 1: to do is middle that, but you know there is

1045
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:13,920
Speaker 1: some significant juice that you are laying to try to

1046
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 1: get that middle. So I don't know if I would

1047
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 1: do that, but yeah, twenty four and a half you

1048
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 1: can bet under plus one ninety. So if you think

1049
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 1: the Texans at twenty three are going to draft him,

1050
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:27,520
Speaker 1: or you think the Raiders at twenty four are going

1051
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:30,319
Speaker 1: to draft him, there's some pretty good value there. So

1052
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 1: that might be the way to look at Josh Jacobs.

1053
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:35,720
Speaker 2: Those will be two backfields who want to pay attention

1054
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:38,359
Speaker 2: to throughout the draft, because right now it's looking like

1055
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 2: we'll have yet another year of the Lamar Miller feature

1056
00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:45,240
Speaker 2: back experience in Houston and then Oakland. Right now, Isaiah Crowell,

1057
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 2: believe it or not, is looking like the future running

1058
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 2: back out for the Raiders. I mean that's still pending

1059
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:53,080
Speaker 2: obviously the draft, and Marshawn Lynch hasn't really made his

1060
00:53:53,160 --> 00:53:56,799
Speaker 2: plans clear yet. But yeah, Isaiah crowpeople don't forget about

1061
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:57,920
Speaker 2: him in those Best Ball drafts.

1062
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 1: No, it is very possible and that in my updated Monk,

1063
00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:04,840
Speaker 1: I will have Jacobs going to the Raiders, maybe not

1064
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:06,800
Speaker 1: at twenty four, but maybe at twenty seven.

1065
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 2: And if there would be a team, you know, I

1066
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 2: think it's more feasible for a team like the Raiders

1067
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:13,359
Speaker 2: with three first round picks to use one of those

1068
00:54:13,719 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 2: on a running back then the Eagles or Colts are

1069
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:16,720
Speaker 2: one of these other teams.

1070
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, I agree, And like, regardless of the number

1071
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:21,920
Speaker 1: of picks they have, they seem like the type of

1072
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:25,280
Speaker 1: organization anyway that would be more inclined to take someone

1073
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 1: like to take a running back in the first round.

1074
00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:30,759
Speaker 2: For sure, for sure. All right now we'll be moving

1075
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:34,239
Speaker 2: to wide receivers. Haven't really gotten any of these guys yet,

1076
00:54:34,280 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 2: but you do have each of DK Metcalf, Marquise Brown,

1077
00:54:38,600 --> 00:54:41,960
Speaker 2: and AJ Brown going in the last I believe twelve

1078
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:45,640
Speaker 2: picks of your mock draft. It's been center around those

1079
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 2: three guys for who the first wide receiver drafted will be.

1080
00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:50,879
Speaker 2: But it seems like the former two players have kind

1081
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:52,960
Speaker 2: of pulled away at this point. Right now, we got

1082
00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:55,920
Speaker 2: DK Metcalf as a minus one forty favorite to be

1083
00:54:55,960 --> 00:55:00,160
Speaker 2: the first wide receiver drafted. Marquise Brown, Hollywood Brown, is

1084
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 2: that plus two twenty five? Matt? What are your feelings here?

1085
00:55:03,360 --> 00:55:06,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is pretty much a coin flip. So I'm

1086
00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 1: going with Brown a plus two twenty five. I bet

1087
00:55:09,200 --> 00:55:13,840
Speaker 1: this actually at plus six fifty. There is one book

1088
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,600
Speaker 1: that posted him a plus six fifty, and I bet

1089
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:18,719
Speaker 1: as much on that as I could. But if you

1090
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 1: look in the mocks, this is pretty much a coin

1091
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:23,719
Speaker 1: flip between the two guys. I think there's I don't know,

1092
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 1: I mean, so I say it's pretty much a coin flip.

1093
00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 1: I think there's value in both guys actually, because you

1094
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 1: can find the minus one forty at one book. You

1095
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:33,880
Speaker 1: can find the plus two twenty five at another book.

1096
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:37,279
Speaker 1: If you just bet those two together and kind of

1097
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 1: balanced it out, I think you would probably make money.

1098
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 1: Because I think it's almost a lock that the number

1099
00:55:43,600 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 1: one wide receiver is one of those guys. If I

1100
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:48,000
Speaker 1: had to bet just one of them at this point,

1101
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:51,640
Speaker 1: it would be Brown. Daniel Jeremiah said that he's convinced

1102
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:55,239
Speaker 1: that Brown is a first rounder. He feels very comfortable

1103
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:57,759
Speaker 1: projecting him there, But he said he also thinks there

1104
00:55:57,800 --> 00:56:00,800
Speaker 1: might be only one wide receiver in the first round.

1105
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 1: That seems a little off to me, given that historically,

1106
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 1: like over the past decade, there have been three point

1107
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:09,880
Speaker 1: eight wide receivers drafted in the first round, and that

1108
00:56:09,960 --> 00:56:13,920
Speaker 1: this is a pretty decent wide receiver class. But yeah,

1109
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:16,120
Speaker 1: I think I will go with Brown at plus two

1110
00:56:16,120 --> 00:56:16,680
Speaker 1: twenty five.

1111
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:20,000
Speaker 2: And in Matt's mockdraft, he has a Marquis going the

1112
00:56:20,080 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 2: Chiefs pick twenty nine. And I mean, I hate to

1113
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 2: compare these prospects that haven't played down in the NFL

1114
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:29,560
Speaker 2: yet to you know, a long time like NFL studs,

1115
00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 2: but the DeShawn Jackson comps for this guy are really

1116
00:56:33,239 --> 00:56:35,520
Speaker 2: spot on. It seems like if you if we're going

1117
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:37,879
Speaker 2: to add him to that Chiefs offense, I mean, good

1118
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:40,040
Speaker 2: luck rest of the NFL. So that would be a

1119
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:40,759
Speaker 2: whole lot of fun.

1120
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:44,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's the Deshaun Jackson comp makes sense.

1121
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:48,440
Speaker 1: I am hesitant though, like Brown does kind of scare me,

1122
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:51,560
Speaker 1: and that we don't have the verified forty time. Even

1123
00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:54,359
Speaker 1: if we assume he's fast, we don't know for sure

1124
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 1: that he is. He has the Liz Frank foot injury.

1125
00:56:57,520 --> 00:56:59,560
Speaker 1: We're assuming that that's going to heal, that there won't

1126
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 1: be any lay long term issues from that, but that's

1127
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:06,760
Speaker 1: not always the case. He wasn't productive like Deshaun Jackson

1128
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:09,440
Speaker 1: in college. Like he was a better receiver, but he

1129
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:12,520
Speaker 1: didn't have the all around skill set that Deshaun Jackson exhibited.

1130
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:14,920
Speaker 1: Like he wasn't the punt or kick returner. He wasn't

1131
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:18,600
Speaker 1: even like the runner with the ball that Deshaun Jackson was.

1132
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 1: So I still think he's going in round one, but

1133
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,400
Speaker 1: he does scare me a little bit from like a

1134
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:26,120
Speaker 1: projection standpoint.

1135
00:57:26,520 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, shout out to Shawn Jackson won the best college

1136
00:57:29,000 --> 00:57:32,040
Speaker 2: part returns ever against Tennessee back in the day. But

1137
00:57:32,160 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 2: all right, moving on to the tight end position. We've

1138
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:37,040
Speaker 2: touched on this a little bit before, but the over

1139
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:40,040
Speaker 2: under for Round one tight ends is two and a half.

1140
00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:43,800
Speaker 2: Pretty much. We're saying Hockinson and Noah Fan almost as

1141
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:47,120
Speaker 2: surely gone. Round one question is what earth Smith Junior

1142
00:57:47,120 --> 00:57:49,000
Speaker 2: from Alabama joined them? Matt, what do you think?

1143
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:51,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, in my mock, I have him going

1144
00:57:51,960 --> 00:57:54,400
Speaker 1: number thirty two, so just you know, by the skin

1145
00:57:54,440 --> 00:57:57,320
Speaker 1: of his teeth to the Patriots, and I think that

1146
00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 1: is a realistic option. They are in the market for

1147
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:03,760
Speaker 1: a tight end. He is a strong player, you know,

1148
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:06,600
Speaker 1: like he's a young guy who fits in well. And

1149
00:58:06,640 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 1: when the Patriots have drafted tight ends, they have gone

1150
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 1: with those young guys before Rob Rokowski, Aaron Hernandez. They

1151
00:58:12,680 --> 00:58:16,320
Speaker 1: were both twenty one as rookies. Earth Smith Junior fits

1152
00:58:16,360 --> 00:58:19,600
Speaker 1: in there, and he was very productive at Alabama, so

1153
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 1: I could see him going there. But I don't know.

1154
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:26,440
Speaker 1: It's I think I will probably bet over three hundred,

1155
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:30,000
Speaker 1: but probably not. I won't be max betting this. It'll

1156
00:58:30,000 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 1: be just a little bit in the mocks that I've surveyed.

1157
00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:36,960
Speaker 1: He is not a first rounder in I don't know,

1158
00:58:36,960 --> 00:58:40,080
Speaker 1: maybe like sixty seven percent of them seventy five percent

1159
00:58:40,120 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 1: of them, but I think he has the potential to

1160
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 1: sneak in, So I don't know. This one is probably

1161
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:48,479
Speaker 1: a like close to fairly priced. I think there's maybe

1162
00:58:48,520 --> 00:58:50,560
Speaker 1: a little bit of value on plus three hundred, but

1163
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:52,960
Speaker 1: not a lot. What actually kind of interests me is

1164
00:58:53,000 --> 00:58:55,160
Speaker 1: the the props that have to do with the number

1165
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:57,800
Speaker 1: of players from a given school that will be drafted.

1166
00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:00,360
Speaker 1: So there's one out there. There are two different mines

1167
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:02,800
Speaker 1: that I found, Alabama three and a half in Alabama

1168
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 1: two and a half, so Quentin Williams and Jonah Williams

1169
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:09,760
Speaker 1: are locked into the first round, so maybe Josh Jacobs

1170
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 1: and then Irv Smith is the possibility. If you are

1171
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 1: someone who doesn't think that Josh Jacobs is going to

1172
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:19,760
Speaker 1: be drafted, then under three and a half provides some value,

1173
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:21,200
Speaker 1: So that might be one to look at. But the

1174
00:59:21,240 --> 00:59:25,000
Speaker 1: real prop that catches my eye for players from a

1175
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 1: school is Clemson two and a half over minus one

1176
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 1: twenty because I think they could have three defensive linemen

1177
00:59:32,240 --> 00:59:35,520
Speaker 1: who are drafted in the first round. Their edge Cleveland Ferrell,

1178
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:39,800
Speaker 1: and then defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence. They've

1179
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:43,920
Speaker 1: consistently been in the first round of my mock, and

1180
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:46,480
Speaker 1: all three of those guys are consistently in the first

1181
00:59:46,520 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 1: rounds of many of the mocks that are out there.

1182
00:59:49,280 --> 00:59:52,520
Speaker 1: So I think there's pretty significant value in two and

1183
00:59:52,520 --> 00:59:55,720
Speaker 1: a half over for the Clemson players.

1184
00:59:56,040 --> 00:59:59,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure quite what his stock is at.

1185
00:59:59,840 --> 01:00:02,800
Speaker 2: On their cornerback at A Clumson trayvon Mullin has received

1186
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:04,720
Speaker 2: some hype as well, So yeah, I'm with you that

1187
01:00:04,720 --> 01:00:07,800
Speaker 2: clumbson line especially seems too low. All right, and quickly

1188
01:00:07,840 --> 01:00:10,600
Speaker 2: we'll stay with the defensive backs and our last little

1189
01:00:10,600 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 2: seigment here. First defensive back off the board, we have

1190
01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:17,480
Speaker 2: Greedy Williams from LSU at plus one hundred, followed by

1191
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:20,880
Speaker 2: Byron Murphy at plus two seventy five. Now, what are

1192
01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:21,520
Speaker 2: your thoughts here?

1193
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:25,440
Speaker 1: Okay, So this, like this literally is a true coin flip.

1194
01:00:25,760 --> 01:00:28,400
Speaker 1: In the twenty monks that I surveyed, they have the

1195
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:33,200
Speaker 1: exact same average draft position, with Murphy actually, even though

1196
01:00:33,240 --> 01:00:36,400
Speaker 1: he's not as athletic as Greedy, Murphy actually having the

1197
01:00:36,760 --> 01:00:40,320
Speaker 1: better median. And the thing is that like Greedy is

1198
01:00:40,360 --> 01:00:43,160
Speaker 1: the better, he's the more athletic guy. He's the better

1199
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:46,919
Speaker 1: press cover corner, but Murphy is the better like all

1200
01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:50,960
Speaker 1: around guy. He's much better in zone, he's still good

1201
01:00:51,520 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 1: in man, and he's a much more willing tackler. So like,

1202
01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:58,560
Speaker 1: if there are teams that just kind of want what

1203
01:00:58,680 --> 01:01:02,240
Speaker 1: Murphy does, going to go with Murphy, even though Williams

1204
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:05,680
Speaker 1: is kind of like quote unquote, like the better prospect.

1205
01:01:05,840 --> 01:01:09,280
Speaker 1: So yeah, I like Murphy and to be able to

1206
01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:11,520
Speaker 1: get him at plus two seventy five on something that

1207
01:01:11,680 --> 01:01:15,120
Speaker 1: really is like a fifty to fifty outcome, that is

1208
01:01:15,280 --> 01:01:18,160
Speaker 1: really what I'm going to be doing. And greedy Williams,

1209
01:01:18,560 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 1: I mean, he has a wide range of draft outcomes,

1210
01:01:21,840 --> 01:01:24,200
Speaker 1: Like he could go in the top ten, but he

1211
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:26,880
Speaker 1: could also like he really could fall out of the

1212
01:01:26,880 --> 01:01:30,400
Speaker 1: first round, like that has happened in more than like

1213
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:33,680
Speaker 1: more than one mock Like it's like that is conceivable.

1214
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:36,840
Speaker 1: But Byron Murphy, like he is locked into the first round,

1215
01:01:36,920 --> 01:01:40,560
Speaker 1: like everyone has him going anywhere from like pick nineteen

1216
01:01:40,640 --> 01:01:43,680
Speaker 1: to pick twenty seven, Like he's he's going in the

1217
01:01:43,720 --> 01:01:46,440
Speaker 1: first round. It would not be surprising if he were

1218
01:01:46,480 --> 01:01:49,800
Speaker 1: drafted ahead of Williams. So for something that's fifty to

1219
01:01:49,800 --> 01:01:52,440
Speaker 1: fifty plus two seventy five is a gift. And then

1220
01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:56,640
Speaker 1: one more prop for defensive backs. I have found under

1221
01:01:56,680 --> 01:01:59,120
Speaker 1: five and a half out there at minus two seventy

1222
01:01:59,120 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 1: eight and found under four and a half at minus

1223
01:02:01,880 --> 01:02:04,720
Speaker 1: one thirty four, and I really like the under there.

1224
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:08,200
Speaker 1: It's possible that no safety is drafted in round one.

1225
01:02:08,360 --> 01:02:11,720
Speaker 1: I don't have one mocked in my first round draft,

1226
01:02:12,480 --> 01:02:15,080
Speaker 1: and some of the others that are out there, a

1227
01:02:15,120 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 1: lot of them don't have a safety. They have maybe

1228
01:02:17,800 --> 01:02:21,600
Speaker 1: one safety, and then Greedy and Murphy at cornerback are

1229
01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:24,240
Speaker 1: the only guys that are locked into round one. Some

1230
01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:29,520
Speaker 1: drafts have DeAndre Baker, some drafts have another cornerback. You know,

1231
01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:32,360
Speaker 1: it can very mock to mock, but it's rare to

1232
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:35,720
Speaker 1: find a mock out there that has more than five

1233
01:02:36,520 --> 01:02:39,960
Speaker 1: defensive backs. So I think there's pretty significant value at

1234
01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:41,040
Speaker 1: minus two seventy eight.

1235
01:02:41,440 --> 01:02:43,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, agreed. Out of the PROPSNAE, we went over that

1236
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 2: under right, there might be my favorite one.

1237
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:47,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's again it is it is hard

1238
01:02:47,960 --> 01:02:50,160
Speaker 1: to find a mock out there that has six or

1239
01:02:50,160 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 1: more defensive backs, So I mean I think that that

1240
01:02:53,120 --> 01:02:55,400
Speaker 1: numbers off. You might not be able to find it

1241
01:02:55,440 --> 01:02:57,520
Speaker 1: in the market. Most books have four and a half,

1242
01:02:57,560 --> 01:02:59,560
Speaker 1: but I think that there is still a five and

1243
01:02:59,600 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 1: a half out there at a book or two. So

1244
01:03:01,880 --> 01:03:05,800
Speaker 1: definitely something to try to find. Ian What what are

1245
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:09,040
Speaker 1: the pieces that you will have coming out before and

1246
01:03:09,240 --> 01:03:10,520
Speaker 1: or after the draft.

1247
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:14,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been waiting for this draft to get over

1248
01:03:14,200 --> 01:03:16,480
Speaker 2: with so I can get grinding again. But I'm doing

1249
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:19,840
Speaker 2: a historical analysis on the first round quarterbacks over the

1250
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:23,280
Speaker 2: last ten years, seeing their hit miss rate, fantasy impact

1251
01:03:23,280 --> 01:03:26,120
Speaker 2: as rookies, looking at how much draft round impacts the

1252
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:28,560
Speaker 2: rookie year opportunity at each position. So we'll give us

1253
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:31,400
Speaker 2: a better idea of how much we should expect from

1254
01:03:31,400 --> 01:03:33,800
Speaker 2: a third round running back versus sixth round running back.

1255
01:03:34,120 --> 01:03:36,840
Speaker 2: Then also what teams have fantasy friendly offensive holes that

1256
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:39,520
Speaker 2: could be filled on draft days. So a bunch of stuff.

1257
01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:41,280
Speaker 2: Like I said, after the draft, we're gonna be in

1258
01:03:41,320 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 2: full on NFL offseason mode and I cannot wait.

1259
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:47,320
Speaker 1: People, All Right, that is going to do it For

1260
01:03:47,400 --> 01:03:50,320
Speaker 1: this episode of the Action Network NFL podcast, Please rate

1261
01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:52,960
Speaker 1: interview the show in iTunes for Ian I, Matthew Freeman,

1262
01:03:53,040 --> 01:04:05,360
Speaker 1: Mattathie Oracle. See you get next episode, County