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Speaker 1: L I in FanDuel sports Book App. Sign up, Hi everybody,

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Speaker 1: and welcome to our Friday podcast, Sharp or Square with

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Speaker 1: Chad Millman. Interesting week of betting now I have I

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Speaker 1: had a winning week last week thanks to the Steelers

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Speaker 1: on Monday Night football and Baker Mayfield melting down. Oh

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Speaker 1: I forgot I can't mention his name. But first, fake questions,

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Speaker 1: real answers. There's stuff I want to talk about but

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Speaker 1: don't want to wait for you to ask me. The

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Speaker 1: dear Colin, who is the NFL's comeback Player of the Year.

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Speaker 1: Let's see Dak Prescott, Carson WANs words matter come back.

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Speaker 1: How about Matt Stafford of the Rams. He came back

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Speaker 1: to a winning football tradition. Think about this. He got

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Speaker 1: the world's worst job transfer. He was the number one

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Speaker 1: high school football player in the country at south Lake

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Speaker 1: High in Dallas. He then went to a top five

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Speaker 1: college program in Georgia. He's now with the Rams, but

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Speaker 1: he was transferred from Georgia. It's the worst transfer in

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Speaker 1: job history to the Detroit Lions. I want you to

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Speaker 1: think about this. It's like going to Princeton magna cum laude.

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Speaker 1: You get a great opening job at Google and then

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Speaker 1: they transfer you to Enron for twelve years. Have you

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Speaker 1: noticed how Matt Stafford's back in the MVP conversation and

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Speaker 1: he was in the Heisman conversation in Georgia and was

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Speaker 1: the Gatorade Player of the Year in Texas. It's why

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Speaker 1: I always defend professional athletes with mobility. Can you imagine

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Speaker 1: if Fox could transfer me to the two hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty eight highest rated cable channel. Matt Stafford come back

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Speaker 1: came back Player of the Year. Dear Colin Big Ben's

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Speaker 1: gonna leave Pittsburgh. What actor would you compare him to?

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Speaker 1: Great question? How about Mickey Rourke? Remember Mickey Rourke in

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Speaker 1: the eighties, he was in Diner. People thought he was

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Speaker 1: going to be what Leonardo DiCaprio became the biggest star

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Speaker 1: in Allywood, super talented, memorable roles, but like Ben, he

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Speaker 1: didn't really take care of himself. He got progressively worse,

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Speaker 1: more drama, stranger. Directors were afraid to work with him

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Speaker 1: because you never knew what he was going to do.

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Speaker 1: He always felt like wasted talent. He does have several

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Speaker 1: memorable games and two Super Bowls, but you never knew

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Speaker 1: what you were going to get. He didn't refine his game.

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Speaker 1: It was big arm, deep ball, very few intermediate routes.

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Speaker 1: In the end, it was sort of sad and wasted talent.

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Speaker 1: One of the saddest things for me in all of

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Speaker 1: pro sports is people that could be the greatest EVERIX six,

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Speaker 1: two fifty and they just become really really good. To me,

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Speaker 1: Ben is a Hall of Famer, but wasted potentially the

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Speaker 1: greatest genetic makeup ever for an NFL quarterback. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: it's Bama Georgia for the national title. Aren't you disgusted? No,

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Speaker 1: I'm never disgusted when people who are passionate and want

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Speaker 1: things get things like if you really think about it,

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Speaker 1: the powerball is kind of disgusting. You could be a

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Speaker 1: meth dealer, rob people, be a horrible citizen, and then

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Speaker 1: be the richest person in your state. That's not the

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Speaker 1: way it's supposed to work. If you want to create

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Speaker 1: a work ethos in any industry, you want to reward

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Speaker 1: the people who are the most passionate and work the hardest. Listen,

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Speaker 1: in the South, it's what they have, it's what they

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Speaker 1: feel good about. The reality is Bama and Georgia will

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Speaker 1: do whatever it takes to be great. It's almost like

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Speaker 1: game shows. There's got to be some skill involved which

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Speaker 1: to have lasted the longest. Jeopardy based intellectually driven, how

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Speaker 1: about another one wheel of fortune. You have to be

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Speaker 1: able to solve puzzles or spell or you're screwed. Just

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Speaker 1: like game shows, there's got to be something behind the

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Speaker 1: win beyond luck. There's a reason that most great college

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Speaker 1: football programs also don't have great college basketball programs. Historically Alabama,

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Speaker 1: Penn State, Georgia, Ohio State because they pour all their resources,

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Speaker 1: all their top donors directed toward the football program. You

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Speaker 1: want it more. I want you to win it more.

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Speaker 1: Dear Colin, I thought you liked the new nil name

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Speaker 1: image likeness rules for college football. You're suddenly saying they

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Speaker 1: need regulations. What listen, people know in college football, the

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Speaker 1: SEC has been regularly paying players. They do it through churches.

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Speaker 1: Old Miss got caught a few years ago. They've mastered it.

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Speaker 1: Football runs the universe in the South. Currently, the transfer

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Speaker 1: portal has no boundaries. You could literally transfer before the

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Speaker 1: biggest game of the year if you were a quarterback

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Speaker 1: and leave your program with no quarterback. Even in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: there's a free agency period and a trade deadline. In

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Speaker 1: college football, it's the wild wild West. The name image

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Speaker 1: likeness is going to make the SEC even stronger. I'm

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Speaker 1: told a certain school and I know what it is,

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Speaker 1: but I won't mention it now. Is paying five star

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Speaker 1: recruits a guaranteed one million dollars? Is that really what

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Speaker 1: we want college football to be? I think paying players

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Speaker 1: is fine. I think transferring is fine. But even if

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Speaker 1: you look in pro football, they have a salary cap

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Speaker 1: and a trade deadline. In a free agency period. There's

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Speaker 1: got to be some structure and some boarders to all

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Speaker 1: of this, all the do gooders, all the media members

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Speaker 1: that want to just have the players get paid. If

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Speaker 1: you want pro football watch Sunday, there's got to be

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Speaker 1: something about the universities that matters on Saturday. I'm not

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Speaker 1: asking for fences and walls, but some guardrails maybe. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: it's your birthday. Happy birthday. First of all, thanks. On

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Speaker 1: another note, what birthday present would you want? Most? Honestly,

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Speaker 1: that our nation would stop politicizing everything from science to

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Speaker 1: vaccines to education. I mean, right now, I find that

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Speaker 1: politics makes people incredibly dishonest. And I'm not talking about politicians.

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Speaker 1: I'm talking about you and me. Suddenly, now liberals don't

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Speaker 1: think Dave Chappelle's funny. Really, That's why I keeps selling

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Speaker 1: out seventeen thousand seat arenas. Dave Chappelle isn't funny. Now,

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Speaker 1: he may have had an unfunny joke or said something

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Speaker 1: that offended you, but it's inherently dishonest to rush to

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Speaker 1: Twitter and now say because you're offended. Dave Chappelle is

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Speaker 1: never funny. His best work was years ago. Now he's

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Speaker 1: funnier now and forever than Patton Oswalt. You're going to

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Speaker 1: have to come to terms with it. And Pete Davidson

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Speaker 1: or conservatives, because they often get poked in the ribs

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Speaker 1: on Saturday Night Live, are now claiming it's never funny.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, it is. It has moments. I've never been

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Speaker 1: as big as Saturday Night Live fan as other people,

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Speaker 1: but it can be funny. I go to YouTube and

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Speaker 1: watch old Saturday Night clips all the time. Politics makes

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Speaker 1: all of us, to some degree less honest. Joe Burrow

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers for MVP. If you look at the real numbers,

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Speaker 1: there's an argument to be made, and a strong one.

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Speaker 1: Burrow's got a higher completion percentage, more yards per completion,

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Speaker 1: seven times as many touchdown passes over thirty yards, behind

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Speaker 1: a worse offensive line, tougher division, less skilled roster. If

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow wins, however, here's what you'll get from conservatives.

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers lost because of his anti vaccine stance. Actually,

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Speaker 1: Aaron had a better year last year and didn't win unanimously.

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Speaker 1: The two greatest quarterback years ever, Brady and Manning each

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Speaker 1: had one, they didn't win unanimously. Burrow and Rodgers is

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Speaker 1: largely a coin flip. In fact, Burrows coming off a career,

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Speaker 1: the ability aiding potential injury, that story gives him another boost.

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Speaker 1: But you know what's going to happen if Burrow beats

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, it will be the klickmeisters from the conservative

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Speaker 1: side making it a political issue. That's just dishonest. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: you always talk about being interesting, and you talk a

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Speaker 1: lot about your business. For your business, what's the best

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Speaker 1: super Bowl? Good question? Actually it's not Tom Brady. I

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Speaker 1: do think like Lebron fatigue in the NBA, there's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of Tom fatigue in the NFL. I think

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Speaker 1: Kyler Murray Arizona would be fascinating. But I do believe

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers making it to the super Bowl with all

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Speaker 1: that drama against Patrick Mahomes feels the biggest Let me

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Speaker 1: throw this out to you in terms of Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers set after his first Super Bowl, that's it.

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Speaker 1: I thought I would feel greater. We don't know if

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Speaker 1: Aaron's going to return, but he's more artist than accountant.

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Speaker 1: Brady is about stacking, Brady is about production. Aaron's a

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Speaker 1: music guy. Aaron's sort of a social media disruptor guy.

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Speaker 1: Aaron hangs out with Hollywood peeps. He's more musician than artist.

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Speaker 1: Musicians have a high opinion of themselves. Could it be

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Speaker 1: possible that Aaron wins the MVP in the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: knowing he'll never catch Joe or Tom, he calls it

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Speaker 1: a rap and becomes the most enigmatic, mysterious and complex

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Speaker 1: quarterback of all time. There's an artist's quality to Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers that fascinates me. He's hinted at retirement twice this year.

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Speaker 1: Can you imagine Elway won a Super Bowl, retired and

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Speaker 1: had more good years left in him, maybe two? Aaron's

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Speaker 1: got six or seven, and Aaron calls it quits at

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Speaker 1: thirty eight years old. How do you keep your name

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Speaker 1: out there? Mystery? I mean, let's be honest. If I

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Speaker 1: met you at a bar, you asked me a question

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Speaker 1: and I gave you an answer, it completes our conversation.

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Speaker 1: But if you asked me a question about Fox TV

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Speaker 1: and I said, oh, oh, I can't tell you. Oh no,

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Speaker 1: that is the secret at Fox Broadcasting, you would think

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Speaker 1: about that for months. It wouldn't be the craziest thing

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Speaker 1: for the artist to do who currently quarterbacks the Green

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman, chief content officer of the Action Network. By

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Speaker 1: the way, the Favorites podcast, which Chad does was Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 1: I believe it was the most listened to sports gambling

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Speaker 1: podcast in America. Am I right correct? It was a massive,

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Speaker 1: massive success thanks to the Volume Podcast Network. Well, you

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Speaker 1: guys had something to do with it too. It was

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Speaker 1: the gift that I wanted to give you for your birthday.

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Speaker 1: It is my birthday today. Thanks for talking about me.

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Speaker 1: I know, how were you going to celebrate. You know,

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Speaker 1: my daughter said, do you want to go out? And

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Speaker 1: I said, well, I'd like to have a cocktail on

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Speaker 1: my birthday, and you would really not be the person

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Speaker 1: I'd want to have a cocktail with. So why didn't

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Speaker 1: you go out with your fun friends? And I'm going

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Speaker 1: to go see some buddies and celebrate tonight. And she

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Speaker 1: was totally okay with it because she wants to go

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Speaker 1: to West Hollywood tonight and I want to go to

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Speaker 1: Manhattan Beach and hang out with buddies, so I'll probably

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Speaker 1: You know, here's what's funny. I don't really have a hobby.

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Speaker 1: And I loved to ski. I like to exercise, but

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Speaker 1: I don't have the classic you know. I don't whittle.

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Speaker 1: I'm not a crossword puzzle guy regularly. I'm not a

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Speaker 1: board game player. And I was thinking about this the

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Speaker 1: other day. You know what my hobby is going out

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Speaker 1: with friends or my wife to a great dinner, bottle

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Speaker 1: of wine. I love that. It's my favorite thing to do.

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Speaker 1: That's not my profession. What I love it. I literally

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Speaker 1: all I want in the last fifteen years of my life.

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Speaker 1: I don't want my gums to fall out. I want

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Speaker 1: to be able to chew chicken palm, have a nice

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Speaker 1: glass of vino. That's my hobby. Is that pathetic dude?

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Speaker 1: So not pathetic. So when we sold the Action Network

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Speaker 1: in May, my wife was like, maybe you'll work glass

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Speaker 1: or you know, maybe you'll like just find ways to

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Speaker 1: fill your time. And it turns out I don't have

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Speaker 1: any hobbies. There's nothing else I like to do. I

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Speaker 1: like to hang out with my friends. I like to

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Speaker 1: do my job, which is a really great job, and

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Speaker 1: that's and like be with my family when they're available.

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Speaker 1: I want to be with me and you can do

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Speaker 1: it on my time and the way that I want

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Speaker 1: to do it. But generally, like I got nothing, and

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Speaker 1: the only thing I like to do is socialized. And

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Speaker 1: I remember years and years ago, this is like the

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Speaker 1: mid nineties, and I was at Sports Illustrated and I

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Speaker 1: could I was trying to fin career transition, trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out what was next, and I applied to a

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Speaker 1: bunch of business schools and I got into NYU but

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Speaker 1: I and I had to write an essay for Northwestern,

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Speaker 1: and the essay for Northwestern was like, describe what you

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Speaker 1: like to do. I wrote about how much I'd like

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Speaker 1: to go to dinner with my friends. I did not

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Speaker 1: get into Northwestern, and I'm fairly certain because I couldn't

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Speaker 1: say there was anything I'd like to do other than

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Speaker 1: going to dinner with my friends. That's it, that's it.

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Speaker 1: What are you gonna at? What's your cocktail going to be?

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Speaker 1: You know, I am not a brown liquor aficionado. I

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Speaker 1: threw up once with rum and tequila. I like a

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Speaker 1: hazy ipa, but maybe one. Even though I've owned wine

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Speaker 1: stores in Connecticut, Maximum Beverage, I'm not somebody red wine

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Speaker 1: makes me tired. So I like little Kettle, short glass,

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Speaker 1: a lot of ice, Club Soda, two lines Classic. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I still go to Maximum. It's a great, great wine store.

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Speaker 1: Great two minutes from my house, the West Hartford One.

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Speaker 1: We just moved it. I know it's even better location

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Speaker 1: for me. Parking's better, thirty seconds closer. Yeah, Eagles hosting

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys getting four and a half, the number was

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Speaker 1: much bigger. I don't understand the line. I like Philadelphia here.

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Speaker 1: Explain it to me, because I think Philadelphia without Tyron

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Speaker 1: Smith playing for the Cowboys is a better team at home.

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Speaker 1: Crappy Weather. Explain this to me. I like Philly Sharper square,

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Speaker 1: it's square. The wise guys like the Cowboys here majority

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Speaker 1: of the money by a wide margin. On Dallas, Mike

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Speaker 1: McCarthy has said he's going to play his starters. The

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Speaker 1: are getting wrecked by COVID. The cow and the Eagles

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Speaker 1: can't really do anything in terms of playoff positioning, so

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Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter for them. This is an opportunity

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Speaker 1: to try to get as healthy as possible, and McCarthy

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Speaker 1: has stated at his intentions. So that's why people are

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Speaker 1: liking the Cowboys. Okay, I like the Falcons plus four

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Speaker 1: hosting the Saints. And do you know I heard a

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Speaker 1: stat today that Jamis Winston only has one fewer touchdown

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Speaker 1: passes than Baker Mayfield this year. That's kind of I know.

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Speaker 1: I think I like the Falcons here. It's a divisional rivalry.

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Speaker 1: I get the Falcons at home over a field goal.

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Speaker 1: I think there's limitations to what the Saints can do offensively.

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Speaker 1: It just feels like your classic division rivalry that's often

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Speaker 1: been close. They played earlier this year and Atlanta had

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Speaker 1: their way with them, kind of moving the ball up

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Speaker 1: and down the field for the first half. I take

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Speaker 1: at Land in the points sharper square as square as

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Speaker 1: your Eagles play was. That is how sharp your Falcons

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Speaker 1: play is. This line has moved way too much in

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Speaker 1: favor of the Saints. It opened. If Falcons mine is

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Speaker 1: one and a half, clearly has swung wildly from all

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Speaker 1: the public coming in on the Saints. It actually got

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Speaker 1: bet up to four and a half and now got

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Speaker 1: bet down to four, and then ticked a little bit

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Speaker 1: back to four and a half. But look, early in

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Speaker 1: the season, the Saints were favored by six at home,

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Speaker 1: so now there's a massive ten and a half point

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Speaker 1: swing in favor of the Saints when they're on the road.

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Speaker 1: This makes zero sense. Wise, guys generally pallerated this under

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Speaker 1: a field goal. So they're all looking at this and

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Speaker 1: feeling like they're getting a significant amount of value. And

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Speaker 1: all the pressure is on the Saints and a dreadful,

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Speaker 1: dreadful offense. They have something to play for, and Taysom

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Speaker 1: Hill talk about bad quarterbacks. Hill is grading out as

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Speaker 1: one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this year,

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Speaker 1: along with Cam Newton, Mike Lennon, and Zach Wilson. So yes,

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Speaker 1: this is the sharp side, all right. So I'm a

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Speaker 1: square with the Eagles. I'm a sharp with the Falcons.

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Speaker 1: Forty nine ers plus four at the Rams. Two ways

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Speaker 1: to look at it. The Niners have dominated this series.

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Speaker 1: The power run game has been good against the sometimes

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Speaker 1: finesse Rams roster. Jimmy Garoppolo is banged. That won't be

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Speaker 1: a one hundred percent And I do worry about a

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Speaker 1: Rams team that's been sloppy but winning on the road,

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Speaker 1: comes home and now has the dual running backs. I

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Speaker 1: would usually if Jimmy was one hundred percent take the Niners.

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Speaker 1: I kind of like the Rams minus four sharper square.

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Speaker 1: I'm so glad you said that. Yeah, the Rams are

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Speaker 1: the right side here. It's interesting the game was at

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Speaker 1: six and got that down with the public. This is

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Speaker 1: a very pros Joe game. By the way, the public

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Speaker 1: came in on the Niners. Bet this game down to six.

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Speaker 1: The money is on the Rams because the Rams, all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden at four are a very attractive play

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Speaker 1: for professional betters. Huge pros Joe's game. And look, one

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Speaker 1: of the reasons the public is coming in is because

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Speaker 1: of the way the Niners have been playing, and because

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Speaker 1: of the way the Rams have been playing, and the

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Speaker 1: Niners historically have performed well in this spot. But the

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Speaker 1: wise guys are not being fooled by. You mentioned Jimmy G.

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Speaker 1: It could just as easily be Trey Lance this week,

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Speaker 1: and Jimmy G did not practice yesterday. So if you're

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Speaker 1: getting Trey Lance in the first half, very ineffective in

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Speaker 1: the second half, when Kyle Shanahan slimmed down the playbook,

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Speaker 1: much more effective against a team in the Texans that

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Speaker 1: could not precture the quarterback. That is one thing the

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Speaker 1: Rams can do, and they have a much better secondary.

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Speaker 1: So you're looking at an opportunity here for the Rams

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Speaker 1: at home to get right against day nemesis, because they

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Speaker 1: are potentially planning against a quarterback who might not be

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Speaker 1: able to handle the same kind of pressure that they're

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Speaker 1: that Jimmy G can do. Okay, I'm going to give

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Speaker 1: you another favorite I like, and this is interesting because

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Speaker 1: I've bet Miami a few times this year and I

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Speaker 1: like them, But I'm going to take New England minus

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Speaker 1: six and a half. The Dolphins offensive line is bad.

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Speaker 1: It is the weakest spot in the roster where the

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Speaker 1: Patriots may not get sacked, but they create pressure increasingly

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Speaker 1: this game matters to New England because they played very

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Speaker 1: poorly for a two game stretch. Remember it was Houston

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Speaker 1: and Buffalo, so that's why they poured it on against Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: I really believe with mac Jones with Brady it may

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Speaker 1: be different, but this is again a confidence building win

359
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Speaker 1: for New England. I'm going to swallow the points. Remember

360
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Speaker 1: their best corner, Jaylen Jackson, takes out Jalen Waddle, so

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Speaker 1: their big advantage perimeter wise, take it out. Also twist

362
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Speaker 1: young under forty starts. Belicheck owns quarterbacks under twenty five

363
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 1: years old. I'm swallowing the points sharper square. So earlier

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Speaker 1: in the show, you mentioned the Favorites podcast that I

365
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Speaker 1: do with Simon Hunter on the Volume podcast network, which

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Speaker 1: had millions millions of listening, and even late in the

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Speaker 1: season it grew. With betting podcasts don't grow late in

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Speaker 1: the season. We do a segment on that show called

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Speaker 1: Sharp Calls, in which professional betters call Simon, who's a

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Speaker 1: professional better and after our Tuesday show they call him

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Speaker 1: and sort of give their feedback on what we said.

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Speaker 1: And one of the games we talked about and we

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Speaker 1: discussed this today and the Sharp Call segment was the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins and the Patriots. Wise guys loved the Dolphins. They

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Speaker 1: loved that, we loved the Dolphins. The line has come

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Speaker 1: down even though everything is trending in the direction of

377
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Speaker 1: the Patriots, all the bets coming in the Patriots one

378
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Speaker 1: of the games. Absolutely we got the most calls about today,

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Speaker 1: and we're okay being on the lonely island of the

380
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 1: Dolphins here. The books basically know what they're doing. They're

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Speaker 1: not going to be super aggressive in moving this line

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Speaker 1: because they want the minor to continue, the best to

383
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Speaker 1: continue to come in on the Patriots. But look, weird

384
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Speaker 1: things happen in Miami at the end of the year

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Speaker 1: when the Patriots and the Dolphins play. And I think

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Speaker 1: that all season long, the book, the professional betters have

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Speaker 1: struggled to go aggressive with mac Jones on the road,

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Speaker 1: especially against secondaries, which Miami has a good secondary, so

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Speaker 1: like the like the Dolphins have. So the wise guys

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00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 1: are on the Dolphins here, all right, that's a good argument, though,

391
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 1: it's a really good argument. Sharps have struggled with mac

392
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Speaker 1: Jones on the road, and that's a very good take.

393
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 1: Do you know his pletion percentage on balls thrown over

394
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:06,639
Speaker 1: twenty yards is thirty percent. I mean, Jacobe Myers is

395
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 1: there go to wide receiver. He's ranking thirty seventh in

396
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,199
Speaker 1: the league in yards. It's like they don't have I mean,

397
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 1: they could draft their first two picks if you look

398
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 1: at their roster should be wide receivers. They really should.

399
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,360
Speaker 1: But it's also the one area that Bill Belichick has

400
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 1: historically been horrible at drafting. Yeah, you know, I'm rooting

401
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: for the Chargers over the Raiders. And here's why. Well,

402
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 1: for one, Justin Herbert likes me a lot. But let's

403
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:43,120
Speaker 1: not get into that. How do you know that because

404
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: he grew up listening to me in the backseat of

405
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: his grandpa's car going to school, and he texts me regularly,

406
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: and he listens to the show and likes it a lot.

407
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Speaker 1: This is a specific Northwest thing, That's what I think

408
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 1: it is. Well, I don't think so. I don't think so.

409
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:02,239
Speaker 1: I think do you know who called me on my birthday? Who?

410
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh? No way? Yes, way? Did he wish you

411
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Speaker 1: a happy birthday? Or was it a coincidence that he

412
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 1: called on your birthday? Unfortunately it was a coincidence. So

413
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 1: that's kind of a bummer. Okay, so the Chargers are

414
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 1: a better representation and a truer playoff team. Here's why

415
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 1: They've got a full time coach, they got better weapons.

416
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 1: They could beat Kansas City or Buffalo. This is a

417
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 1: really good football team that has a young quarterback and

418
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 1: can be inconsistent. The Raiders have an interim coach. Most

419
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: of their good players are hurt. They have no deep threat,

420
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 1: but they're getting three at home. They're weird, they hang

421
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 1: around and it's a rivalry game, and I probably feel

422
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: like the Raiders and the Points is the sharp side,

423
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 1: Sharper square, The Raiders are the sharp side. You're one

424
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 1: hundred percent right. It's it's for all the things you said.

425
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 1: There's been so much inconsistency with the Chargers this weekend.

426
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: And as much as Justin Herbert loves you, you have

427
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: to admit and he's had a great year and his stats,

428
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: like you look at his stats and they're unbelievable. You

429
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,439
Speaker 1: look at him like again to Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes, whomever,

430
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,400
Speaker 1: like great year, still very inconsistent, and there were moments

431
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 1: where he was incredibly inaccurate. And this Raiders team they

432
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 1: just always hanging around. They're just always there and Derek

433
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:33,880
Speaker 1: Carr doesn't seem to know when the game is over.

434
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 1: And the one thing you have to think about is

435
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 1: will Waller be playing? Will he be coming back? Is

436
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: he is? That's what I'm saying, And so like, you

437
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: know that if he does, if he when he is,

438
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 1: wise guys already bought the three in anticipation of him

439
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: coming back. This game went down to two and a half.

440
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 1: So the wise guys are already thinking, Yeah, I'm going

441
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: to like the Raiders in this spot. All right, I

442
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 1: always ask you give me one you like. I didn't

443
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: bring up Well, there's so much ugliness. I know. It's

444
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: it's well, we don't even COVID injuries out of the playoffs.

445
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,719
Speaker 1: It's just nonsense. So here's a couple of stats I'm

446
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: going to throw at you, and then I will give

447
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 1: you a couple of ugly games that fit the bill.

448
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 1: You gotta understand that anytime you have playoff teams, teams

449
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 1: that are in playoff contention that have something to play for,

450
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: going against non playoff teams, teams that are out of it,

451
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: there's going to be inflation in the line. Bookmakers know

452
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 1: that the public is silly and they're thinking, Oh, I'm

453
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: going to bet this team because they have more to

454
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 1: play for, So the bookmakers make the line much better.

455
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 1: A couple of stats. Since two thousand and three, teams

456
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: that are in a must win spot sixteen and twenty

457
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: six against the spread. That's a thirty eight percent cover

458
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 1: percentage if they're favorites of more than a field goal.

459
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 1: Since two thousand and three, again small sample size ten

460
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: and twenty two, thirty one percent. If you want to

461
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 1: open it up. Since nineteen eighty, these teams are forty

462
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 1: percent in that spot. What do we got this weekend?

463
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: Jags plus fifteen and a half against the Colts. Colts

464
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: haven't won in Jacksonville in like seven years. The only

465
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 1: game the Colts the Jags won last year Week one

466
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: against the Colts. You got the Texans plus ten and

467
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,479
Speaker 1: a half against the Titans, a Titans team that has

468
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: not been able to put away really bad teams this year,

469
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: that's playing for the number one seed. So those are

470
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 1: clearly two games, both the Jags and the Texans, that

471
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 1: I'll be betting one. Oh, I know, I know, but

472
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: by the way, you like the Falcons. The Falcons are

473
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 1: in the same spot. The Dolphins are in the same spot.

474
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 1: It's like, that's what we got. All right, well, happy,

475
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 1: here's some birthday props for you, ready, all right? Right?

476
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: Cooper Cup. Cooper Cup needs like one hundred and thirty

477
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 1: six yards to break the single season record. I don't

478
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 1: know what. They haven't posted the player props yet. I

479
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 1: don't know what it'll be at, but I guarantee they're

480
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 1: not posting the number at one hundred and thirty five.

481
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 1: Bet the over and Cooper Cup. Hey, I'm taking Alabama

482
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 1: minus the point, Saban and Bryce Young. Everybody likes Georgia.

483
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 1: What say you? I like Georgia. Jesus, hold on, what's

484
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 1: the line right now? You just said minus the point.

485
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: I'm fairly certain Georgia opened yeah, and favorite here and

486
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 1: now as an underdog. Yes, I mean Saban's been an

487
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 1: underdog like five times. He's four and one with four blowouts.

488
00:31:56,640 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 1: Bryce Young is so much better. You're gonna tell me

489
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 1: you're gonna take the second best quarterback and the second

490
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 1: best coach, both by a long shot. I can't do it. Well.

491
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 1: I can tell you right now that this is the

492
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 1: epitome of a a pros Joe's game. All the tickets

493
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: are on Alabama, the squares are on Alabama. No money

494
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 1: is on Georgia. The sharps are on Georgia. You know what,

495
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna hang out with all the meat balls and

496
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna just hang out with them and we're all

497
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 1: a bunch of dopes and square. Be with your people.

498
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 1: It's your birthday. Go have your cocktail, do what you

499
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 1: love to do, be with your buddies, enjoy it. You

500
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 1: You know you're getting older, but you're not getting any wiser.

501
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 1: I guess that's the that's the lesson we've learned here.

502
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:51,479
Speaker 1: Good see anybody, Happy birthday. My friend Chad Millman. Check

503
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: him out at the Volume Sports or YouTube page. Push

504
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 1: that red button, subscribe cash and prizes. Potentially not really,

505
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 1: but I appreciate it if you did it. The Volume