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Speaker 3: don't care because we have an enormous number of premium

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Speaker 3: subscribers who keep it going and so the benefit is nice.

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Speaker 5: It's better to get the whole show and not have

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Speaker 5: the ads.

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Speaker 3: But really, what you're doing is signaling support for journalism

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Speaker 3: that is just going to be honest and tell you

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Speaker 3: what's going on.

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Speaker 5: This morning, I woke up and opened up.

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Speaker 3: The New York Times app, and the first thing was

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Speaker 3: like it's sad sick man said US and Israel attack

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Speaker 3: Iranian military installations, Like okay, well that is true, it's

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Speaker 3: not the whole truth. And we're going to talk about

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Speaker 3: later in the program. What is being done to one

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Speaker 3: of the oldest and most populated cities on the planet,

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Speaker 3: an indiscriminate carpet bombing.

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Speaker 6: We have a lot of video that you're going to

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Speaker 6: want to stick around for a video from Dubai that

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Speaker 6: we're going to get to in just a moment as well.

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Speaker 4: All around the Middle East.

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Speaker 6: And Donald Trump was speaking again in the Oval Office

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Speaker 6: yesterday answering questions from the press that are a little

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Speaker 6: bit all over the place. That's probably not a surprise

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Speaker 6: to anybody, but we will be synthesizing those with what

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Speaker 6: other people in the administration have said. What people said

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Speaker 6: walking out of a briefing on Capitol Hill yesterday, Members said,

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Speaker 6: walking out of a briefing on Capitol Hill yesterday, Ryan

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Speaker 6: and your colleague Jeremy ska Hill and Martassa Hussein are

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Speaker 6: going to be with us.

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Speaker 5: Jeremy flaked on us. It's going to be mas though.

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Speaker 4: Jeremy, we got it. We had to go. But now

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Speaker 4: we get to call him out.

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Speaker 5: Yes, that's right.

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Speaker 3: He's actually interviewing a top running official at the moment,

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Speaker 3: and the journalism always takes precedence over the punditry, so

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Speaker 3: we were not actually angry with him.

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Speaker 5: So that's fine, but Mos will be great.

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Speaker 3: My colleague Martaza over at drop site a couple of

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Speaker 3: years ago, he said, you know, he spent his whole

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Speaker 3: life learning about geopolitics, international international law, human rights, thinking

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Speaker 3: that that was the thing that he needed to understand

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Speaker 3: to be a foreign policy reporter.

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Speaker 5: Several years ago, he was like, that's not it.

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Speaker 3: Actually, it's weapons systems, and it's kind of military doctrine

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Speaker 3: because because it is force that is going to be

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Speaker 3: reshaping the world in the decades ahead, and the last

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Speaker 3: several years have absolutely borne out his own professional assessment,

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Speaker 3: and so he can talk to us about how things

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Speaker 3: are actually going as far as we can tell in

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Speaker 3: this regional conflict.

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Speaker 6: And then we're also going to break down the conflict

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Speaker 6: from the two separate I don't want to say vantage points,

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Speaker 6: but two separate categories or subconflicts that are roiling right

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Speaker 6: now Europe and gas prices. So we have two different

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Speaker 6: blocks where we're going to dig deep into both of

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Speaker 6: those aspects of this. We also, of course, are excited

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Speaker 6: to have election coverage because it is a Wednesday after

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Speaker 6: major primaries around the country, particularly in Texas where I'm

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Speaker 6: spoiling this. But Dan Crenshaw lost his I was crying. Yeah,

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Speaker 6: we hardly knew you. But anyway, there's a lot to

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Speaker 6: break down on that. And Dave Weigel and David Serota

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Speaker 6: are both going to be joining us a little double

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Speaker 6: Dave actions.

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Speaker 3: Last week we had two days Dave Dahan and Dave

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Speaker 3: Hog aren't our new policies.

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Speaker 5: We are only interviewing Dave's apparently, it's just it. It's

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Speaker 5: only Daves.

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Speaker 4: I don't know when that happened or whose idea was.

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Speaker 5: We're okay, mod slept through somehow.

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Speaker 4: This is why Jeremy dropped out. Actually, nothing to do

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Speaker 4: with else, all right, everyone, well stick around for that.

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Speaker 6: And BP three twenty six is the promo code for

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Speaker 6: free access to Premium Breaking Point and to a Premium

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Speaker 6: Breaking Points subscription. Let's turn now to video coming out

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Speaker 6: of Dubai Ryan, because this is we can put a

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Speaker 6: two up on the screen. This is the US Consulate

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Speaker 6: in Dubai getting hit if you need an example of

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Speaker 6: how serious I mean, you don't need an example, but

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Speaker 6: if you want to have a visual of how serious

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Speaker 6: this conflict continues to be, that is the US consulate in.

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Speaker 4: Dubai going up in smoke, surreal image.

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Speaker 3: Ryan, Yes, and this comes after it appears that the

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Speaker 3: CIA station was hit in Saudi Arabia. The Defense Department

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Speaker 3: officials War Department, I guess they.

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Speaker 5: Call them now much more accurately.

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Speaker 3: In a hotel in Bahrain, and Jeremy had actually reported

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Speaker 3: that the Iranians were telling him that they had tracked

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Speaker 3: American officials and troops you to these particular hotels and

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Speaker 3: instruct these particular floors hotels, and a lot of people

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Speaker 3: dismissed that reporting, like, come on, you're joking that they

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Speaker 3: didn't actually do that. And then it emerges, oh, yes,

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Speaker 3: actually it does appear that they did that, which, just

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Speaker 3: just to make one side point, we spent two years

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Speaker 3: being told that Hamas uses human shields and is deplorable

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Speaker 3: for that. As soon as conflict breaks out in this region,

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Speaker 3: the US sends enormous numbers of its people indus literally

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Speaker 3: into civilian hotels.

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Speaker 7: And this was in Saudi Arabia, but they station in

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Speaker 7: sa Area, and they hit the CIA station in Saudi Arabia,

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Speaker 7: the American consulate in Dubai.

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Speaker 5: This and we'll talk more about this with months.

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Speaker 3: The Gulf region is not set up to withstand economically.

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Speaker 5: Uh, this, this type of violence is it.

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Speaker 3: Is based on an expat it's based on oil gas

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Speaker 3: and an expat community. And this this is not what

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Speaker 3: they signed up for, any of them.

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Speaker 4: Even the Saudis were pushing the air.

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Speaker 8: On strikes.

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Speaker 3: And we can talk about that too with MAZ. That

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Speaker 3: was a Washington Post report that everybody is dismissing as

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Speaker 3: as not credible. That so the Post reported that MBS

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Speaker 3: multiple times pressed pressed Trump to attack Iran, even though

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Speaker 3: publicly he was saying, don't do it. Some reporting that

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Speaker 3: I've done on this, it seems like what happened is

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Speaker 3: that Lindsay Graham went to Saudi Arabia at the end

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Speaker 3: of last month, met with MBS and publicly said like

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Speaker 3: he made made the cell to MBS.

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Speaker 5: I think that what happened then.

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Speaker 3: Is Graham came back and told Trump told the Crown

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Speaker 3: Prince wants you to do it. But the Crown Prince

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Speaker 3: never told Graham that Graham just told Trump that, and

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Speaker 3: then Trump told other people that, who then told the

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Speaker 3: Washington Post.

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Speaker 4: That, and that wouldn't be surprising.

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Speaker 5: Zatti Arabia is saying, we absolutely did not say this.

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Speaker 4: That wouldn't be surprising at all.

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Speaker 5: If that's what happened, This is a good wind up

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Speaker 5: with their oil field's on fire.

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Speaker 4: Lindsay Graham playing telephone with everyone, He's been.

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Speaker 5: All of it, a very malevolent, deliberate game of telephone.

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Speaker 4: Incredible.

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Speaker 6: Let's actually listen to Trump himself, who was pushed yesterday

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Speaker 6: in the Oval office about comments that Secretary of State

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Speaker 6: Mark Rubio, not just Mark Rubio, though Mike Johnson also

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Speaker 6: had made on Capitol Hill the day before, talking about

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Speaker 6: how the immediate and Soccer and Crystal covered this yesterday,

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Speaker 6: the immediate precipitating factors that we knew, we got intelligence

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Speaker 6: that Israel was going to strike, so we had to

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Speaker 6: join preemptive action. Otherwise we would have been behind the

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Speaker 6: eight ball, and he would have Rubio said that, you

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Speaker 6: guys would have been doing hearings about why we didn't

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Speaker 6: join with Israel in this attack. Now Rubio said, we

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Speaker 6: had to do it anyway, And Johnson has says up

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Speaker 6: to that effect as well, but they did say the

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Speaker 6: immediate precipitating factor and almost like cope and almost suddenly

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Speaker 6: like they were trying to scapegoat Israel for forcing their

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Speaker 6: hand while also trying to own the attacks.

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Speaker 4: So here's how Donald Trump responded to comments A three.

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Speaker 9: It's reach.

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Speaker 10: I might have forced their hands.

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Speaker 11: You see, we were having negotiations with these lunatics, and

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Speaker 11: it was my opinion that they were going to attack first.

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Speaker 11: They were going to attack if we didn't do it.

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Speaker 11: Based on the way the negotiation was going, I think

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Speaker 11: they were going to attack first, and I didn't want

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Speaker 11: that to happen. So, if anything, I might have forced

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Speaker 11: Israel's hand. But Israel was ready and we were ready,

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Speaker 11: and we've we've had a very very powerful impact.

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Speaker 10: What's the worst case scenario that we have to plan for. Well,

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Speaker 10: I don't know if there's the worst case. We have

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Speaker 10: them very much.

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Speaker 11: Beaten militarily from the military standpoint, they're still lobbing some missiles.

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Speaker 10: At some point they won't even be able to do that.

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Speaker 11: I guess the worst case would be we do this

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Speaker 11: and then somebody takes over who's as bad as the

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Speaker 11: previous person, right.

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Speaker 10: That could happen. We don't want that to happen. It

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Speaker 10: would probably be the worst.

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Speaker 11: You go through this and then in five years you

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Speaker 11: realize you put somebody in who was no better.

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Speaker 4: Just very casually, it could get worse.

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Speaker 8: Worse.

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Speaker 4: Government could be worse.

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Speaker 8: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So a lot of Democrats emerged from a classified briefing

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Speaker 3: yesterday on the Hill and all of them said, I

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Speaker 3: went in, you know, concerned about this.

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Speaker 5: I came out frightened. They have no plan.

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Speaker 3: They can't, even in a classified setting, keep their own

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Speaker 3: stories consistent from the beginning to the end.

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Speaker 5: And if you see Trump talking there.

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Speaker 3: He clearly does not have He has not spent much

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Speaker 3: time thinking this through the messaging through right, the idea,

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Speaker 3: not forget the messaging like why, like what happened, like

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Speaker 3: why he attacked, and what the goal of the attack

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Speaker 3: is going to be? Said, we're negotiating with these lunatics.

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Speaker 3: No Iran was negotiating with lunatics. Trump was negotiating with Iran,

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Speaker 3: the Omani Foreign Mission.

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Speaker 4: I think he was also negotiating with lunatics.

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Speaker 5: Well, maybe they're all lunatics. The Omani Foreign minister.

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Speaker 3: The lunatics who turned out to be correct, sometimes you

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Speaker 3: can be paranoiding correct.

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Speaker 4: Cases.

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Speaker 3: The Omani foreign minister went on air and said, and

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Speaker 3: he said, here's what they're offering, no enrichment, no stockpiling,

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Speaker 3: open to talking about ballistic missiles, but you want to

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Speaker 3: promise first that you're not going to attack. He because

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Speaker 3: he sensed that Gushner and but just either didn't understand

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Speaker 3: or weren't being serious about receiving the offer. He went

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Speaker 3: on TV and like told the entire world public, what

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Speaker 3: was what was on offer? For Trump to say, oh,

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Speaker 3: they were actually about to attack. It just doesn't past

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Speaker 3: the smith, the smell test, sniff test.

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Speaker 6: No, it's not what anybody and it's also not what

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Speaker 6: anybody's saying. It's not what the intelligence is saying. Like

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Speaker 6: it isn't Marco Rubio was alone making that case. No,

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Speaker 6: Mark Ruby was saying, they would have gotten past the

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Speaker 6: point of immunity very soon, meaning if it would have

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Speaker 6: been much harder to take out this is a Rubio's argument,

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Speaker 6: would have been much harder to take out the military

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Speaker 6: capacity to degrade.

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Speaker 5: It drones exactly.

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Speaker 3: And so that's not even even do anything about that.

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Speaker 6: Well, yeah, and on what timetable, right, So is this

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Speaker 6: going to are you able to degrade their military to

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Speaker 6: the point where I mean when we were talking about

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Speaker 6: their nuclear capacity being obliterated in June, that was a

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Speaker 6: ten year timetable. Allegedly they'd been set back a decade.

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Speaker 6: They can rebuild missiles quickly. You can't get rid of

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Speaker 6: their ability to make missiles. They know how to do it,

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Speaker 6: they have the.

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Speaker 5: Knowledge, and get the drones from China. They're pretty cheap.

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Speaker 6: So are we going to be right back here in

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Speaker 6: a year, in five years? Because fundamentally it is an ideology.

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Speaker 6: There is a since was the IRGC in the last

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Speaker 6: ten plus years has particularly been emphasizing this idea that

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Speaker 6: there's an eschatological element to Israel's existence, that if you

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Speaker 6: get rid of Israel you can bring in the like right.

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Speaker 6: There are of course some far right Israelis who think that.

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Speaker 6: There are some dispensational Christian evangelicals who think that too,

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Speaker 6: But that is also something you can't eradicate.

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Speaker 4: With bombs in Iran.

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Speaker 3: Rubio's claim that the reason that the US attacked now

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Speaker 3: is because Israel was going to attack and we were

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Speaker 3: going to be attacked as a result of that. So

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Speaker 3: we had to attack like that was the claim that

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Speaker 3: he made. It's one of the most consequential public omissions

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Speaker 3: made in decades. I would imagine that the Israelis are

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Speaker 3: absolutely livid that he said that publicly, and so Rubio

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Speaker 3: is now doing a tiny bit of clean up around that.

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Speaker 3: So let's see how he's kind of finessing this with

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Speaker 3: a four.

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Speaker 12: Yesterday Israel Iran and that's why we needed to get

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Speaker 12: involved today.

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Speaker 11: The President said it.

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Speaker 4: No, Iran was.

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Speaker 13: Going to get Yeah, your statement is false. So that's

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Speaker 13: not what I was asked, very specifical.

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Speaker 10: Were you there yesterday?

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Speaker 4: Yes?

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Speaker 13: Okay, No, Were you the one that because somebody asked

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Speaker 13: me a question answered did we go in because of Israel?

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Speaker 13: And I said, you asked me from that follow up

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Speaker 13: and I said no, I told you this had to

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Speaker 13: happen anyway. The President made a decision, and the decision

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Speaker 13: he made was that Iran was not going to be

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Speaker 13: allowed to hide behind its ballistic missile program, that Iran

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Speaker 13: was not going to be allowed to hide behind its

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Speaker 13: ability to conduct these attacks. That decision had been made.

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Speaker 13: The President systematically made a decision to systematically destroy this

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Speaker 13: terroristic capability that they had and we carried that out.

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Speaker 13: I was very clear on that answer. This was a

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Speaker 13: question of timing of why this had to happen as

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Speaker 13: a joint operation, not the question of the intent. Once

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Speaker 13: the President made a decision that negotiations were not going

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Speaker 13: to work, that they were playing us on the negotiations,

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Speaker 13: and that this was a threat that was untenable, the

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Speaker 13: decision was made to strike them. That's what I said yesterday.

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Speaker 13: And you guys need to play it. And you're going

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Speaker 13: to play these statements. You need to play the whole statement,

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Speaker 13: not flip it to reach a narrative you want to do,

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Speaker 13: all right, Is this.

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Speaker 4: A plan in place to evacuate Americans.

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Speaker 13: Before the attacked, Well, that's the plan we're trying to

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Speaker 13: carry out. The problem is, or the challenge we are

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Speaker 13: facing as airspace closures. If a country closes their airport,

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Speaker 13: for example, in some cases the airports have been hit,

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Speaker 13: so the airport and ate was hit. So if an

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Speaker 13: airport's been attacked or the airspace is closed, then we

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Speaker 13: can have the planes lined up to go, but we

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Speaker 13: can't get them to land because we don't have the

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Speaker 13: permissions to land there.

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Speaker 5: So that's the challenge.

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Speaker 13: It's going to take a little time because we don't

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Speaker 13: control the airspace closures. That said, there may be more

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Speaker 13: people out there than need help. We need to know

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Speaker 13: who you are, so please, I'm asking the media publicize

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Speaker 13: the phone numbers in the website because we need people

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Speaker 13: to call in, so we have their name, we have

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Speaker 13: their contact information, we have their location and their request.

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Speaker 3: The context there is that there are thousands of Americans

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Speaker 3: who want to be evacuated from this war zone. If

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Speaker 3: you put the two pieces together, Rubio is effectively saying

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Speaker 3: that because of the timing of when this happened, which

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Speaker 3: was driven by Israel and get the he can't get

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Speaker 3: these Americans evacuated at this point. So Senator Tom Cotton

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Speaker 3: was also trying to clean this up a little bit,

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Speaker 3: but just ended up reiterating the point, let's do a five.

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Speaker 9: Israel faced an existential risk, and they were prepared to

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Speaker 9: strike Iran alone. If that happened, Iran was very likely

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Speaker 9: to target our troops. That may address the question of

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Speaker 9: why now, Why not two weeks ago? Why not two

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Speaker 9: months from now? The President, though, did not want to

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Speaker 9: put our troops in harm's way. The more fundamental question, though,

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Speaker 9: is why why did we have to carry out this

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Speaker 9: operation against Iran. And as I said, that's because they

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Speaker 9: have a vast missile arsenal that far exceeds our combined

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Speaker 9: missile defenses and it gets worse every single month. That

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Speaker 9: is an unacceptable threat to the United States.

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Speaker 3: So emily, So we were going to do it anyway

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Speaker 3: at some point in the next maybe few months, even

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Speaker 3: though we were pretending to do these negotiations.

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Speaker 5: But Israel decided to do it, so we went with them.

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Speaker 4: And Trump also maybe forced their hand.

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Speaker 5: Trump his Trump forced their hands.

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Speaker 3: Yes, Israel, the you know, the peacemaker in the Middle East,

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Speaker 3: absolutely did not want to attack Iran for sure, even

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Speaker 3: though Nyaho put out this like gloating video saying like

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Speaker 3: I have been yearning for this attack on Iran for

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Speaker 3: forty years now, forty years ago. By the ways, as

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Speaker 3: you know, Israel and the United States were arming Iran.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, so the yearn to attack Iran was happening

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Speaker 3: at the same time. Yeah, that we were literally sending

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Speaker 3: weapons to Iran. So, setting setting all that aside, would

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Speaker 3: you would we move to the classified briefing or any

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Speaker 3: thoughts on how this like incredibly historic admission on the

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Speaker 3: part of Rubio, uh and Johnson and others is going

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Speaker 3: to factor in politically, especially if and as this becomes

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Speaker 3: a complete economic catastrophe and also American lives and thousands

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Speaker 3: of other people's lives get lost as a result of it.

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Speaker 6: No, I mean, I think that's a great place to

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Speaker 6: go next, because this is what Democratic senators were saying

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Speaker 6: after emerging from the briefings that Mark Rubio was on

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Speaker 6: Capitol Hill to do. And I think you're totally right

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Speaker 6: also to pick up that the emergent narrative seems to

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Speaker 6: be we were going to do it anyway, we had

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Speaker 6: to do it now, like that's what they don't clearly,

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Speaker 6: they clearly don't want to say that because it's been

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Speaker 6: they've saw, they've seen how it's played. That's why you

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Speaker 6: saw Rubio really out there frustrated yesterday saying play the

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Speaker 6: whole clip, Play the whole clip. Well, you said that,

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Speaker 6: you literally said that the precipitating factor was because our

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Speaker 6: intelligence said Israel was going to do something we knew

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Speaker 6: Israel was going to do the strike. So yes, play

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Speaker 6: the whole clip. Great, happy to have this broader picture

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Speaker 6: understanding the clip. But you're also even when you're doing

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Speaker 6: the broader picture understanding, reiterating exactly what everybody actually took

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Speaker 6: issue with, which was that Israel forced our hand, and

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Speaker 6: the President of the United States is saying something different.

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Speaker 6: We have kids from Minnesota coming back in boxes. That's

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Speaker 6: a disaster. That's a disaster. It is a moral disaster.

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Speaker 6: It's a disaster for the administration. The messaging has been atrocious,

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Speaker 6: and I think it's because it reflects the strategy is

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Speaker 6: muddled to begin with. You could hear that in Trump's

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Speaker 6: comments the point that you made, Ryan, where He's like, well,

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Speaker 6: I don't know what comes next.

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Speaker 4: Maybe it'll be worse. So it's not worse. Maybe it'll

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Speaker 4: be worse.

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Speaker 8: It could be worse.

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Speaker 10: So what.

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Speaker 6: Here's Dick Glumenthal, the Senator from Connecticut, walking out of

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Speaker 6: the briefing yesterday.

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Speaker 10: Ryan.

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Speaker 6: Would it be fair to characterize him as somebody who's

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Speaker 6: let's say, hawkish on Israel?

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Speaker 4: Supportable?

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Speaker 5: Yes, I just want to say.

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Speaker 12: I am more fearful than ever after this briefing that

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Speaker 12: we may be putting boots on the ground and that

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Speaker 12: the troops from the United States may be necessary to

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Speaker 12: accomplish objectives that the administration seems to have. But I

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Speaker 12: also and am no more clear on what the priorities

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Speaker 12: are going to be of the administration going forward, whether

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Speaker 12: it is destroying the nuclear capacity of Iran or simply

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Speaker 12: the missiles, or regime change or stopping terrorist activities. And

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Speaker 12: I think the administration owes it to the American people

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Speaker 12: to have briefings, not just for members of Congress, but

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Speaker 12: for the American public. Nothing here should have been classified.

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Speaker 12: It should be available to the American people.

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Speaker 6: Let's roll another hawk, Chuck Schumer walking out of the meeting.

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Speaker 4: This is a seven.

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Speaker 8: Do you think Israel?

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Speaker 5: You know, of course the US's hand here box the

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Speaker 5: US in on this.

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Speaker 14: Look, no one wants a nuclear war. No one wants

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Speaker 14: a nuclear Israel, but we certainly don't want an endless war,

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Speaker 14: plain and simple.

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Speaker 10: What did I say? Oh no, Scott, let me say

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Speaker 10: that again.

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Speaker 14: No one wants an endless war, but we certainly don't

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Speaker 14: want a nuclear Iran.

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Speaker 5: That's for sure.

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Speaker 6: Okay, listening, audience, what you missed was Chuck Streamer starved

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Speaker 6: to walk away after he said nobody wants a nuclear Israel.

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Speaker 6: Reporters were like, wait, wait, wait, So it goes back

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Speaker 6: to the camera, says let me do another take, let

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Speaker 6: me say that again, and corrects himself to say nuclear

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Speaker 6: arn but.

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Speaker 3: An Israel, for context, has nuclear weapons but pretends that

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Speaker 3: they don't. And it's this bizarre, decades long situation where

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Speaker 3: journalists and policymakers are supposed to sort of pretend like

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Speaker 3: they don't know that they do, even though they absolutely

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Speaker 3: do and have tested them and worked with the apartheid

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Speaker 3: South Africa and helping them develop one. It's like, I

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Speaker 3: wouldn't say nobody wants a nuclear Israel.

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Speaker 5: Israel does. But other than that, yeah, well.

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Speaker 6: So these these are two I think if people are listening,

446
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 6: they've identified two different layers of muddled messaging. That's a

447
00:21:54,920 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 6: way too charitable term of mixed messaging, of contradictory messaging, which.

448
00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 4: Is is it nukes or missiles?

449
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 6: And was it Israel or was it our decision and

450
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 6: that moment did we do it at that moment on

451
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 6: our own or because we knew Israel was going to strike?

452
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,719
Speaker 6: And there's been contradictory mixed message on both of those layers,

453
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 6: and those are cute. Those are predicate level questions, foundational

454
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 6: questions about this new war.

455
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 4: Is it even a war?

456
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 6: The President said, war in his speech, so of course

457
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 6: yes it's a war. But then you have Mark Wayne

458
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 6: Mullen for example. Also he was standing right where Chuck

459
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 6: Schumer was standing in the video we just played, say

460
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 6: this is a war. Reporter said, uh, you know what

461
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 6: you know? You just said that it's a war, and

462
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,359
Speaker 6: he did a Schumer and said, I need to correct myself.

463
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 4: This is I misspoke.

464
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 5: That was a miss What is it? It's a combat operation.

465
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 4: They're saying major combat.

466
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 5: Operations of combat operation.

467
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 4: Preemptive, yes, and so proactive.

468
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:52,919
Speaker 3: And Schumer can't get out of his own way and

469
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 3: become a real opposition figure because of his hostility to

470
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 3: Iran rooted in his like decades long support for Israel.

471
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 5: If you noticed in that clip he leads with nobody wants.

472
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 3: A nuclear on rather than what is kind of more

473
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 3: pressing at the moment, the massive war that might spiral

474
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 3: into World War three. And also I thought this was

475
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 3: obliterated last June. And also they were at the table

476
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 3: offering to have no stockpiling. So today there will be

477
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 3: a war powers resolution vote in the Senate. It looks

478
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 3: like John Fetterman will join Republicans. Graham Platner has been

479
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 3: pushing Susan Collins very hard on this, pushing her to

480
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 3: condemn this, to turn her concerns into actions and join

481
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 3: Democrats and opposing this. You might know better than me.

482
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 3: I don't think she's going to do that. We'll see

483
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 3: how she ends up voting. If I fire her, I

484
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 3: would just throw her vote is not going to be decisive.

485
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 3: I think it's going to lose. You've got fifty three

486
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 3: Republicans plus Fetterman, right, so they can lose a couple

487
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 3: of Republicans and still defeat the War Powers resolution. So

488
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,360
Speaker 3: if I'm Susan Collins, I would just take a cynical

489
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 3: vote and vote for the War Powers resolution.

490
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 5: I don't think she really will, though, what do you think?

491
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 6: Well, it'll yeah, I mean it depends on whatever agreement

492
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 6: is happening behind closed doors with Trump world, National Republican

493
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 6: Senatorial Committee world.

494
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 5: And whatever they think is smarter for her well.

495
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 6: And also if Donald Trump is going to be sensitive

496
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 6: about people voting against him or.

497
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,679
Speaker 3: If they oh, then if he starts attacking her and

498
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 3: you lose money, lose money, and lose hardcore MAGA votes,

499
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 3: who then yeah.

500
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 4: Otherwise, if you telegraph you're taking a.

501
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 5: Cynical vote, so she'll go with the war.

502
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 6: Or if you telegraph taking a cynical process vote, maybe

503
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 6: you can alleviate that and you can work on that

504
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 6: again behind closed doors. But one of the big takeaways

505
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 6: from what you just said actually is that Platner has

506
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 6: already moved on to Susan Collins. I think as hilarious

507
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 6: is like what else yesterday's news primary is over moving

508
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 6: on as Susan Collins.

509
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 3: But if he really is, if people don't live on Twitter,

510
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 3: there was a two or three day hissy fit where

511
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 3: a whole bunch of like establishment Democrats all in Unison's

512
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,919
Speaker 3: telling Graham Platter to drop out. It was like the

513
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,919
Speaker 3: funniest thing. It's like, I'm sorry, what, yeah, are you

514
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 3: looking for the manager? Like it's a primary they're gonna vote.

515
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 3: It was so undignified and so embarrassing, and then it

516
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 3: just like faded.

517
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,439
Speaker 6: Well, let's finish here with this clip of Lindsay Graham

518
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 6: get a little bit from the right. We're gonna splice

519
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 6: up here. Lindsay Graham and Tim Burchett, so Republican member

520
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 6: of the House Freedom Caucus guy. You've probably seen Burchitt around,

521
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 6: But here's Graham and then Burchett.

522
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 4: It's worth watching these these both back to back.

523
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 15: So I'm calling on President Trump today, join Israel to

524
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 15: attack Hezblah, a binge the Marines. America never forgets those

525
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 15: two hundred and twenty Marines in eighteen sailors. Family, we

526
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 15: want to go after the infrastructure that killed your loved ones,

527
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 15: their IRGC assets in Beirut. As I speak, President Trump,

528
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 15: come up with a new operation called Simplify Fly with

529
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 15: Israel and go after Hezblah, who has American blood on

530
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 15: its hands. Not only take the mothership of Iran down,

531
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 15: also take the prox if hezbe Lah settle the score.

532
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 5: Even the account.

533
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 8: Wendsay Adam saying a.

534
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 11: Fistfight, he hasn't wanted to turn into a bombing, right,

535
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 11: So I just tell you what a grain of salt.

536
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 5: As a Republican if you did age from the accent.

537
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, he also said, he said to a reporter

538
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 6: in that same press conference, we do expect the public

539
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 6: to hold us accountable as the war goes on, and

540
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 6: you should hold this accountable. He's a freedom cracass guy,

541
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 6: so he's not like your average establishment person and obviously

542
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 6: feels heat from corners of the base that are uncomfortable

543
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 6: with this. Now, what I can tell so far, vibes

544
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 6: on the right very supportive. There are a couple of skeptical,

545
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 6: high profile voices, but I think Republican voters are very

546
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 6: supportive of what's happened. So I think maybe there's there's

547
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 6: probably more skepticism and criticism on the online right than

548
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:17,959
Speaker 6: there is the offline or the partially online right. So

549
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 6: I don't know how much he people are going to

550
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 6: be feeling. But if it goes on longer, you know,

551
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 6: Burchett's going to hear from the people who feel like

552
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 6: Marjorie Taylor Green in his own district probably already is

553
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 6: hearing from a decent chunk of people. I mean, even's

554
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 6: twenty thirty percent of the Republican base. That's a lot,

555
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 6: and it'll it'll grow as this continues.

556
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 3: And just to be clear that Lindsay Graham was saying

557
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 3: that the US should bomb Lebanon to avenge a nineteen

558
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 3: eighty three bombing which took place before I would assume

559
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 3: most people in Hesbula were born, including my esteemed.

560
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 6: Co host, right, that's right, yes, a decade me and

561
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 6: those hesbla guys nineties kids nine.

562
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 5: These kids up next drop sites.

563
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 3: Pertazi was saying as the walkers through some more of this,

564
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 3: including US signaling that they're going to try to start

565
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 3: a civil war in Iran by arming Kurdish proxies. The

566
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 3: Trump administration is signaling that it plans to arm Kurdish

567
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 3: proxies to start an uprising in Iran, which is actually

568
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 3: kind of an unusual thing to telegraph publicly if you're

569
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 3: going to try to keep it clandestine. So we're going

570
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 3: to talk about where that comes from and what that

571
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 3: means in a moment with my dropsite colleague Martaza Hussein.

572
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 3: But first, we have a one month free premium offer

573
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 3: that we're doling out to everybody so that you can

574
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 3: get coverage of this war without having to pay for it.

575
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 3: It's go to Breakingpoints dot com. It's BP three twenty

576
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: six and movie in posts. We can add a little

577
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 3: map here because I think it's important here. When psychs

578
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 3: Pico drew the lines of the of the Middle East,

579
00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 3: they took the Kurdish region, the Kurdish population and split

580
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 3: it basically like right down the middle. They put they

581
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 3: put a quarter quarter of it over in Turkey. So

582
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 3: there's a large Kurdish population in eastern Turkey. There's then

583
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 3: a large Kurtish population in northeast Syria. Then there's a

584
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 3: large Kurdish population over in northern Iraq. Uh and and

585
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 3: then with and then you have a smaller but non

586
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 3: trivial Kurdish population in Iran. And so it is the

587
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 3: Iranian cards that are now the focus of the US

588
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 3: US AT tension and affection and weapons supplies, hoping to

589
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 3: you know, further destabilize Iran. So Amaz, thank you so

590
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 3: much for joining us this morning, very much appreciate it.

591
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 3: And you know we can we can put up what

592
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 3: do we have B two here? Uh, this is this

593
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 3: is from CNN.

594
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 5: This is the US.

595
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 3: This is the US intelligence officials signaling that they plan

596
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: to sparkle uprising in Iran, which obviously has some level

597
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 3: of psio psychological operation to it, because the CIA is

598
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 3: also capable of sparking uprisings without telling CNN that they're

599
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 3: about to spark an uprising. And if we had the

600
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 3: map still up there, we could point out that down

601
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 3: in the southern part of Iran is there's a large

602
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 3: Bloque population. There's a blow population in neighboring Pakistan, which

603
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 3: has all sorts of kind of intelligence connections and also

604
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 3: their own kind of drive for independence or autonomy. So

605
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 3: there's a lot of concern that the southern area as

606
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 3: well could become a place for some sort of uprising.

607
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 3: So what do we know so far about the kind

608
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 3: of Trump outreach to the Iraqi Curds and whether or

609
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 3: not the Curds see this as in their interests.

610
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:57,959
Speaker 16: Yes, so United to pointed out, the Curves have been

611
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 16: a stateless population or it Probabish, without their own states

612
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 16: for their ethnicity, at least since sychespeakle they're spread out

613
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 16: among the different few different countries, countries that wish they

614
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 16: are citizens, but they don't have a Curtisan of their

615
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 16: own per se. And so you know, there's always been

616
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 16: this tension with these states and so forth about how

617
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 16: the Courage will fit in. And now I think this report.

618
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 16: You know that there's been militant c and the political

619
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 16: movements in Irani and Curtisan for a long time, but

620
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 16: I think that this report is very fascinating because, as

621
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 16: you said, it's very strange to telegraph so loudly that

622
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 16: you're about to do this imminently. I think one of

623
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 16: the some of the reports said an offensive good start

624
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 16: in a few days. That's a very strange thing to

625
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 16: identify that way. But that said, there have been reports

626
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 16: that the US has made intelligence contacts with the PJAK,

627
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 16: which is like the Iranian branch of the PKK effectively

628
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 16: in Iran. Also reports of weapons transfers and so forth.

629
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 16: So I don't find it completely beyond the pale or

630
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:58,720
Speaker 16: identified completely outlanders. And they could be doing this, but

631
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 16: I think it's very clear that if they were to

632
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 16: do this, it would not be to really help the

633
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 16: currents per se. It would be kind of inversion of

634
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 16: the Iraq war situation, where the US basically accidentally started

635
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 16: a civil war by creating a security dilemma.

636
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 8: In this case, seems like they're deliberately.

637
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 16: Trying to start a civil war and maybe try to

638
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 16: drain the attention and resources already stretch of the Iranian military.

639
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 16: They may impose a no fly zone over this part

640
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 16: of Iran to try to break the territorial integrity if

641
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 16: Iran in that sense, and I think those are all

642
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 16: things that are very plausible. The one thing is if

643
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 16: you talk to Iranians They're very divided and polarized about

644
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 16: many different things in a con way, one thing that

645
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 16: really reunites them is the territorial integrity if Iran.

646
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 8: They're very patriotic across the political divisions.

647
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 16: So I think that one byproduct of this, it may

648
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 16: actually make people rally around the country and the flag

649
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 16: or even the government because it's the nightmare scenario of

650
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 16: pretty much every Iranian and even the most shop Paba

651
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 16: via supporting Irani has milted about the subject that they

652
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 16: don't accept it. So you know, it's not say it

653
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 16: won't happen and they're not going to try it. But

654
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 16: you know, also one more thing, it would also require

655
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 16: much more US involvement.

656
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 8: It's not just like passing it off to the Kurds

657
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 8: and walking away.

658
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 16: You probably tremendous US Special Forces presence in Iran ongoing,

659
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 16: as I said, air cover for these troops, these Kurdish

660
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 16: forces to protect them and so forth. And I do

661
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 16: think we're heading down the road if we're doing this

662
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 16: much greater US involvement, including ground involvement in Iran.

663
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, on that point.

664
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 6: Actually Ryan highlighted this clip of a Kurdisher mom that

665
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 6: we can put it up on the screen that said

666
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 6: to paul A VI quote, let me make this clear.

667
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 6: When your dictator father executed Kazi Muhammad, there was only

668
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 6: one Kazi Mohammed, but now millions of Kazi exist in Kurdistan.

669
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 6: We promise we will not allow you to enter any

670
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 6: part of Kurdistan in Iran, Mas.

671
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:50,239
Speaker 4: What do you make of that? What does that tell us?

672
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 6: What more does that tell us about the dynamics we

673
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 6: were just laying out.

674
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 16: Well, one thing to keep in mind is that Iran

675
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 16: is an ethnically heterogeneous country. I think maybe like half

676
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 16: or sixty percent of people or a Persian background, but

677
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 16: there's a huge population of people who are Turkish background, Kurds,

678
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 16: Bolos and so forth, even smaller ethnicities throughout the country

679
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 16: as well. And rest of Pavlavi really speaks to the

680
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 16: Persian segment of the population, the more urban, you know.

681
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 8: Plurality or slim majority of the country.

682
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 16: But there's a very big country to country, ninety million people,

683
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 16: and these people, many of them did not have a

684
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 16: very happy experience with the previous shot and they view

685
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 16: the imposition of another Polab as a return to like

686
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 16: a straightforward Persian ethnic chauvinism in their view, so that

687
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 16: they would not view that as a liberation at all.

688
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 8: For the vast majority of them. The current government is

689
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 8: very polarizing.

690
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 16: It probably has a support of a segment of the

691
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:50,879
Speaker 16: population and not the majority, but the theory it's sort

692
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 16: of intended to represent the entire country. It's not an

693
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 16: ethnic party per se. It's a national party, national government.

694
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,479
Speaker 16: So I think that I don't think that even really

695
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 16: people are thinking about these dynamics and thinking about sending

696
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 16: the shot back.

697
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 8: It's a very romantic idea. It's being able to came

698
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 8: back to the country.

699
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 16: Monarchic resistorations have a history in Europe in the past

700
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 16: as well too. But it's a very very complex situation,

701
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 16: and as many US officials have done, many foreign officials

702
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,399
Speaker 16: have said, spoken with the US counterparts, it doesn't seem

703
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 16: as a plan per se. And I do get the

704
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 16: impression that is more of the Israelis guy than the Americans,

705
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 16: because he's much more impulsely embraced by nets Yahoo than

706
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 16: he has been by the US, which has kept him

707
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 16: at least in public and arms lands.

708
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Trump yesterday was asked about rezip and pretty

709
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 3: much dismissed him, and in a similar way to the

710
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 3: way that Maria Marchott Machado seemed to be kind of

711
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 3: dismissed by Trumps, like, yeah, he seems like a nice guy,

712
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 3: but I don't know if like he's I don't know

713
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 3: if he's the one. There's some other people you know

714
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 3: that he that he thinks could run a round. And

715
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 3: to your point, the the Shah restoration plan runs kind

716
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 3: of in direct conflict and country addiction to this, like

717
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 3: we're going to spark armed uprisings all over the place

718
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 3: because you know, the Shah, the crown Prince whatever we

719
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 3: call himself, has been has been very clear that you know,

720
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:14,839
Speaker 3: there it's one, it's one Iran, and he's he will

721
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 3: be the king of all of Irun and then it

722
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 3: will be a democratic transition at some point in the future.

723
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 3: But he's not tolerating you know, separatist movements. You know

724
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 3: his you know his father, you know, executed people who

725
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,760
Speaker 3: kind of pursued that that.

726
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 5: That similar line.

727
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 3: So those are you know, those are two strategies, as

728
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 3: you said, that are they cannot work together.

729
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 8: Uh.

730
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 5: We were originally told.

731
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 3: By Trump that this was going to be a a

732
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 3: regime change war. It seems like they're starting to realize

733
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:46,319
Speaker 3: that it's not quite as simple as they thought. And

734
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 3: as people many people have pointed out, just changing the regime,

735
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,880
Speaker 3: you know, through an aerial bombardment campaign isn't quite possible.

736
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 3: So it seems now this is what I wanted to

737
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 3: ask you about, and we can we can roll be

738
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 3: one here while while asking this question, it seems like

739
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 3: a kind of split the baby, split the country strategy is.

740
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,800
Speaker 5: Okay, we can't do regime change. This is Tehran.

741
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 3: These are images coming out of just apocalyptic scenes coming

742
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 3: out of Tehran. Okay, we can't do regime change, but

743
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 3: maybe we can do complete regime destruction, complete regime collapse,

744
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:27,760
Speaker 3: and make it so this country has just simply rendered

745
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 3: a failed state, you know, dropped from the ranks of

746
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 3: a struggling country under sanctions to one that more resembles Gaza,

747
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 3: and and that can be and that can adopt the

748
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 3: the approach that the Israelis took to have to have

749
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 3: taken to Gaza, of which they call you know, mowing

750
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 3: the lawn, which would mean, you know, every six months

751
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:51,240
Speaker 3: or so, they come in with a with a bombing

752
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,720
Speaker 3: campaign as soon as a little bit of reconstruction gets

753
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 3: going and life starts to get back to normally, bomb

754
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 3: them back to misery again. And so if you can

755
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 3: have the Bloke people rising up, you can have the

756
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 3: Kurds rising up in a constant bombardment of this one

757
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 3: of the oldest and most populated cities in the world, then.

758
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,360
Speaker 5: Maybe you can just destroy the regime. So, like, what

759
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 5: are you.

760
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:19,880
Speaker 3: Seeing just as a matter of strategy, Like what is

761
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,479
Speaker 3: being done to Tehran as we.

762
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 16: Speak, Well, I think Ran you hit the nail on

763
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 16: the head. I think that they're not doing regime change

764
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 16: per se. And if they were trying to hypothetically impose

765
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 16: a neoliberal, pro Western government, maybe resid apology to control

766
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 16: all of Iran, that would be one of the more

767
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 16: relatively benign outcomes actually, or benign intensions, because you're trying

768
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 16: to preserve something called Iran, even in a very bloody

769
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 16: and brutal way. I don't think that's what they're trying

770
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:48,240
Speaker 16: to do here. I think they're trying to do regime

771
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 16: regime destruction, regime dissolution. They would like to turn Iran

772
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:55,359
Speaker 16: into something like Iraq in the nineteen nineties, where it'd

773
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 16: been heavily damaged. It was a very foreign sanctioned you

774
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 16: could sovereignty was based irrelevant. You can bomb in anytime

775
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 16: you want it, keep it on the back foot, and

776
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 16: then you know, one day, ten years later, if the

777
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 16: circumstances arose, you can go in there and knock it out,

778
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 16: and then people wouldn't really object to it at the time.

779
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:13,840
Speaker 16: The impression I get listening to the Trump administration officials

780
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 16: is that they considered the entire the major mistake of

781
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 16: the Warran terror was not the killing and destruction, but

782
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:22,439
Speaker 16: it was the attempt to try to engineer something out

783
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 16: of that. You know, I think it seems to like

784
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 16: the Warran Terror was very progressive and woke or something.

785
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 16: It was to involve in human rights and state buildings

786
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 16: and stuff like that. What they would like to do,

787
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 16: and they're pretty much open about this, they like to

788
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 16: destroy Iran in very extreme, vulgar terms.

789
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,280
Speaker 8: They just describe that, including secretary access today.

790
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 16: So they and they don't want plan to rebuild it,

791
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:44,919
Speaker 16: or they don't plan to put someone new in charge

792
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 16: of someone who comes.

793
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 8: In who maybe supports the US right if.

794
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 16: Not, no problem, and causing the dissolution of the country

795
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 16: is something which you know, so it's very harmful to

796
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 16: countries around Iran's bad for a Turkey or Pakistan or

797
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 16: the Gulf States and so forth. It could be very

798
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 16: bad for Europe if there's a major refugee crisis, which

799
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 16: I think the Iran has a count of niney million people.

800
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 8: I think it would absolutely be a refugee crisis at

801
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:08,479
Speaker 8: that point.

802
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 16: But the US is far away, even Israel is pretty

803
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:13,880
Speaker 16: far away, so they could probably whether the weather the

804
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 16: blows from that, and you know, that's kind of I

805
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 16: think the plan such as it is, whether that will

806
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 16: be successful or not, I don't know, because you know,

807
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 16: Iran is a.

808
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 8: Very large coherence cocid country.

809
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 16: It wasn't really like Iraq or even Syria that was

810
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:30,839
Speaker 16: created by you know, Sypes people colonial borders. That has

811
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 16: like actual country with actual, like historic civilizational sort of

812
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 16: containment that it had. So I don't think it's that

813
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 16: easy to destroy it. But that said, you know, you

814
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 16: can do tremendous harm. You could kill tens of thousands,

815
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 16: hundred thousands of people, millions of people could be killed.

816
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 16: That's not by many means off the you know, out

817
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 16: of the renal of possibility and I do think we're

818
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 16: heading something like that. So I think that that's unfortunately

819
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 16: the trajectory. And you know, the Iranian government could have

820
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,320
Speaker 16: options and how it respond that manages to maintain power

821
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:03,760
Speaker 16: and so forth, but they're doing for a very, very challenge,

822
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 16: you could, and I think we're only a sally at

823
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 16: the beginning of this.

824
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 6: Well, let's roll this footage from Lebanon, and this is

825
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 6: B four because actually, you know, we as we played

826
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:16,760
Speaker 6: a clip of Lindsey Graham at the Senate yesterday calling

827
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 6: for Trump to join Israel strike Hasbulla, you know, avenge

828
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 6: the Marines. But everything you're just saying probably rings in

829
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 6: many people's minds as what happened after a rock, particularly

830
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 6: what happened after a rock with the rise of Isis.

831
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:38,360
Speaker 6: And I guess that's my next question, is where you

832
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 6: know you were saying, if you have this dispersed or

833
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 6: you have this power vacuum, what could come next is

834
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 6: not what anybody predicted when we went into a rock.

835
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 6: I mean, it's remarkable to look back on that and

836
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 6: think of how little understanding there was of what could

837
00:41:56,480 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 6: come next. But this seems utterly insane for the United

838
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 6: States to be completely confident that what comes next is

839
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 6: going to be potentially inevitably better than what was before,

840
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:11,399
Speaker 6: which is again something there saying over and over again

841
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:14,280
Speaker 6: it couldn't possibly get worse, It couldn't possibly get worse.

842
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 4: What could get worse? If anything?

843
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 16: Mass well, you know, you could have, as I mentioned earlier,

844
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 16: the refugee crisis. The refugee crisis was hugely disabilizing into Europe,

845
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:27,800
Speaker 16: had a tremendous impact on politics all over the world.

846
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 16: That's very possible. You have the Iraq and Syria. Syria

847
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 16: they're only you know, in the twenty million in the

848
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 16: population so forth, Iran is ninety million people. That's a

849
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 16: tremendous summer of people eating, a fraction of whom may

850
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 16: become refugees who would wind up in Europe. That simply

851
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 16: changed the politics at the continent again and led less

852
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 16: than a decade. So I think that's a very important

853
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 16: possible consequence. But also, you know Iran, there's a tremendous

854
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:58,439
Speaker 16: amount of knowledge and material militarily nuclear stuff in there

855
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 16: as well too. You could have an of state authority,

856
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 16: you could have different factions fighting over a nuclear material,

857
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:08,320
Speaker 16: people trying to develop nuclear weapons outside of the cohesive

858
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 16: state structure such as they one can see that they

859
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 16: can be cooperating with people outside the country. They can

860
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 16: cooperate people in Russia or you know, elsewhere in the

861
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:17,479
Speaker 16: world to do this.

862
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 8: Con seal these activities.

863
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 16: You know, the way it ran is right now, especially

864
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 16: with the government trying to engage with the international community

865
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 16: in various ways. There's a great duty of transparency that

866
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 16: affords because you know they you know where You'rerani nuclear

867
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 16: sites that you know, for the most part, where the

868
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 16: nuclear materials are. What if that whole structure breaks down,

869
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 16: or if people, a small group of people, armed people

870
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 16: in summer organization go to the mountains in the very

871
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 16: mountains country and develop a nuclear weapon up there, dirty

872
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 16: bomb or.

873
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 4: Something like that.

874
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 16: You know, aion, a million nightmer of stereos could happen

875
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:50,359
Speaker 16: if you open turn a gigantic country like that apocalypse.

876
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 6: So you're not bombing the what I was just gonna say,

877
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 6: because you know this very well, you're not bombing the

878
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:02,439
Speaker 6: what's the right word, the logical persuasions or the ideological

879
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 6: persuasions of some chunk of the Iranian population away. In fact,

880
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 6: you could actually be radicalizing more and more people into

881
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 6: IRGC style ideologies. I mean, that's again, it's part of

882
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,240
Speaker 6: what happened with ISIS. You hear how ISIS was recruiting

883
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 6: people some of these videos that are coming. I mean,

884
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 6: what happened to the school in the first what twenty

885
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:25,240
Speaker 6: four hours at the bombing, that's a recipe for another

886
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:29,120
Speaker 6: potential ISIS like recruitment boom. It seems to me at least,

887
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,839
Speaker 6: but you would know this better, Mons well.

888
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 16: I think it might be likely to revivify like a

889
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 16: very hardline Iranian nationalism, maybe channel through the current government.

890
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 16: That's a very significant possibility because the whole message to

891
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 16: the government was that America is bad and America's pushed

892
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 16: us around the past. Did it coop in the nineteen fifties,

893
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,360
Speaker 16: they bomb sit out of staying in the eighties and

894
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:53,320
Speaker 16: a lot of people actually didn't really believe that anymore,

895
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 16: younger people and so forth. And you know, if you

896
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 16: however long this goes on, it not violence naturally has

897
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 16: a polarizing that people start to you know, get radicalized

898
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:05,279
Speaker 16: by as you said, they start to get noticing and

899
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,720
Speaker 16: they say it hurt or their family members are in dangered,

900
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:10,240
Speaker 16: changing their perception then the government was not very popular

901
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 16: before this, it was maybe five percent something like that.

902
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 16: People's back of their envelope calculations that the level of

903
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 16: supports society, if you continue boving them, you'll generate patriotic

904
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 16: sentiments that they can challenge. So maybe the US is

905
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:26,360
Speaker 16: indifferent to that. Maybe you know, they're not trying to

906
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 16: engineer a neuron so they don't care.

907
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:29,320
Speaker 8: But you know, that would.

908
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:32,560
Speaker 16: Strengthen the Iranian government absolutely, because the one thing that

909
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:34,920
Speaker 16: would make it very easy to resist or easier to

910
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 16: resist this onslaught or attempts to break up the country

911
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 16: on an ethnic basis is to rithmify support in the government,

912
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 16: and the government would have to do things too, have

913
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:47,840
Speaker 16: to change the way engaging with people, maybe change some

914
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 16: of its public messaging and the way it makes decisions,

915
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 16: be more inclusive in that sense to a degree.

916
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 8: But you know, it's giving them an opportunity for that.

917
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 16: I don't see necessarily like a full the extreme isis like.

918
00:45:58,920 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 8: Movement emerging from it.

919
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 16: I think that it was kind of like a unique

920
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 16: constellation of factors in Iraq and.

921
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:06,400
Speaker 8: Syria that resulted in that.

922
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 16: But I do think that it would transform people's opinions

923
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 16: in ways which could be politically adverse in the long term.

924
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:17,520
Speaker 3: And last question for me, what is Iran doing differently

925
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 3: this time that they're clearly getting absolutely pummeled by Israel

926
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 3: in the United States. The bombing campaign seems to be exceeding,

927
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 3: you know, what was done during the Twelve Day War,

928
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 3: But what is Iran doing differently when it comes to

929
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:35,879
Speaker 3: their response and what is working for them and what's

930
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 3: not working well?

931
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 16: It seems like this time they're relying more on these

932
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:42,760
Speaker 16: short range or shorter range of one way to attack drones,

933
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 16: the shy head drones that they're firing at US positioned

934
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 16: in the Gulf States and sometimes the targets in the

935
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 16: Gulf States as well too. That's been the predominant focus

936
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:54,200
Speaker 16: of their retaliation. So you know, what interesting thing is

937
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 16: that most of the Morn's ballistic missile force is actoually

938
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:58,359
Speaker 16: not developed to hit Israel. It's developed to hit these

939
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:01,880
Speaker 16: targets in the Gulf. So you know, they're using more

940
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:04,239
Speaker 16: of those, and obviously they're under much more fire this

941
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 16: time to suppress these launchers, to destroy them before they

942
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 16: can be fired and so forth. But still, as I said,

943
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:12,800
Speaker 16: it's a very big country and around the Persian Golf

944
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:17,800
Speaker 16: the Tooral area, they have caves, they have small launch

945
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 16: sites and so forth. They're very difficult to get all

946
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 16: of them. And they're doing regular stream of attacks on

947
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:24,839
Speaker 16: these targets. And there was actually a New York Times

948
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 16: story about this, and those on social media as well too,

949
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 16: But they're mapping out all the radars that the Iranians

950
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:32,840
Speaker 16: hit and the Gulf states. They're actually destroying billions of

951
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 16: dollars that use equipment on these bases and very sophisticated

952
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 16: to anti BLUISTI missal radars and not the radars and

953
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 16: so forth, So they are actually hitting things which matter.

954
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:44,520
Speaker 16: And they also hit a CIA stations, Arabia hit embassies

955
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 16: and so forth.

956
00:47:45,680 --> 00:47:48,760
Speaker 8: So this is not completely trivial response.

957
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 16: But that said, you know, given the depletion of stockpiles

958
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:56,439
Speaker 16: in the last war, and also this time the fact

959
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 16: that the US not just involve hitting around but also

960
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 16: giving fuel support to the Israelis so they can hit

961
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:04,919
Speaker 16: around more regularly, it's difficult to maintain the large level

962
00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:07,399
Speaker 16: ballistic missile sell vels that took place in the last war.

963
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 16: This means that the US is rarely interceptors are probably

964
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:14,839
Speaker 16: depleting at a slow rate than before. But also you know,

965
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 16: they can't really hit these targets as hard as they

966
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 16: did before, so I think from the Iranian perspective, they

967
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,800
Speaker 16: also maybe trying to preserve their capacities, not to fire

968
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:25,759
Speaker 16: them all in the short term, but to fight a

969
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:28,319
Speaker 16: long war attrition, because the US issue can only fight

970
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 16: for a few weeks of this capacity, but they can

971
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:32,759
Speaker 16: go for months and months and you know, six months

972
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 16: or something like that and keep firing. Then the perception

973
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 16: of who really on top here may start to chip,

974
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:40,720
Speaker 16: and I think that's usually the strategy. It's a weaker

975
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 16: party and war. Many Iranian officials have said this, and

976
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 16: I will say one last thing. It was seen as

977
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 16: the biggest mistake that the Iranians made last year when

978
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:50,800
Speaker 16: they stopped firing after twelve base, because in the Iranian

979
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 16: system is that we finally figured out how to get

980
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 16: past the air the missile defenses.

981
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 8: We shouldn't stop firing.

982
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:57,760
Speaker 16: But also, if the war's going to come next year anyways,

983
00:48:57,920 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 16: now the israelis in the back foot in the US

984
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:02,759
Speaker 16: and get involved, we should just have it now. Press

985
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 16: our advantage now rather than wait another year and was

986
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:06,399
Speaker 16: what they did in the end.

987
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 3: All right, well, mos stick around from mom because we're

988
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 3: going to talk about what the European response has been

989
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 3: and what the US response to the European response has been.

990
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 5: So we'll stick around after the break for this.

991
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:23,919
Speaker 3: So a diplomatic and trade war is breaking out between

992
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 3: the United States and Spain over Spain's refusal to allow

993
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 3: the United States to use its bases to attack Iron.

994
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:33,359
Speaker 3: Trump was asked about this and said that, you know what,

995
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:35,760
Speaker 3: maybe he'll just cut off Spain completely.

996
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 5: Let's roll this.

997
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 11: The right was given to us by the Supreme Court,

998
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,359
Speaker 11: and we have the right. As an example, we talked

999
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:46,280
Speaker 11: about Spain. I could tomorrow stop or today even better

1000
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 11: stop everything having to do with Spain, all business having

1001
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:54,720
Speaker 11: to do is Man. Have the right to stop it, embargoes,

1002
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:56,799
Speaker 11: do anything I want with it, and we may do

1003
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 11: that with Spain.

1004
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,720
Speaker 10: But some of the European like Spain, is been terrible.

1005
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 10: In fact, I.

1006
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 11: Told Scott to cut off all dealings with Spain.

1007
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 10: Spain.

1008
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 11: First of all, it started when every European nation, at

1009
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 11: my request, paid five percent, which they should be doing,

1010
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 11: and everybody was enthusiastic about in Germany, everybody, and Spain

1011
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:23,480
Speaker 11: didn't do it. And now Spain actually said that we

1012
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:25,520
Speaker 11: can't use their basis, and that's all right, we don't.

1013
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:27,520
Speaker 11: We could use the basic we want. We could just

1014
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 11: fly in and use it. Nobody's going to tell us

1015
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:32,239
Speaker 11: not to use it, but we don't have to. But

1016
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 11: they were unfriendly, and so I told him we don't

1017
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:39,399
Speaker 11: want to. Spain has absolutely nothing that we need other

1018
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 11: than great people.

1019
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 10: They have great people, but they don't have great leadership.

1020
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 11: And as you know, they were the only country that

1021
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 11: in NATO would not agree to go up to five percent.

1022
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 11: I don't think they want to agreed to go up

1023
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:54,360
Speaker 11: to anything. They wanted to keep it at two percent,

1024
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:57,120
Speaker 11: and they don't pay the two percent. So we're going

1025
00:50:57,200 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 11: to cut off all trade with Spain. We don't want

1026
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:00,839
Speaker 11: anything to do with Spain, all right.

1027
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:05,320
Speaker 3: So Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez pushed back against Trump,

1028
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 3: saying that he's not going to be bullied. Now Trump

1029
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:09,480
Speaker 3: is probably correct. They probably could just fly in. I

1030
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 3: don't think Spain's going to shoot the US planes down.

1031
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 3: But Sanchez is saying that he's standing by it. We

1032
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 3: can put up his post here. He said he said

1033
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 3: the world, Europe and Spain have faced this critical moment before.

1034
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,760
Speaker 3: In two thousand and three, a few irresponsible leaders dragged

1035
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 3: us into an illegal war in the Middle East that

1036
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:31,799
Speaker 3: brought nothing but insecurity and pain. Our response, then must

1037
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 3: be our response now. No to violations of international law.

1038
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:37,440
Speaker 3: No to the illusion that we can solve the world's

1039
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:41,080
Speaker 3: problems with bombs, No to repeating the mistakes of the past,

1040
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 3: No to war.

1041
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:45,320
Speaker 8: Emily.

1042
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:50,399
Speaker 5: How is how are people feeling about this on the right?

1043
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 3: This just Trump kind of decided that we're going to

1044
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:56,840
Speaker 3: go to war and decided the entire world has to

1045
00:51:56,840 --> 00:52:00,239
Speaker 3: go to war with us, and now we're gonna cut

1046
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:00,760
Speaker 3: off Spain.

1047
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:01,839
Speaker 5: Like what does that mean?

1048
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 4: It's Trump.

1049
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:09,719
Speaker 6: It's just it's Trump's tactics that people have become accustomed to.

1050
00:52:09,719 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 6: And I think some people on the right actually frankly

1051
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 6: enjoy Trump coming in. It's like people see it almost

1052
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:18,520
Speaker 6: as Reagan coming in after Carter malaise, as it's kind

1053
00:52:18,520 --> 00:52:22,800
Speaker 6: of remembered in the American imagination and saying it's mourning

1054
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,480
Speaker 6: in America again, and Trump is a much darker version

1055
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:29,920
Speaker 6: of that, saying it's America's morning again, Like we're the

1056
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 6: ones who are in charger, in control and you have

1057
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:36,800
Speaker 6: to deal with it. We're actually like wrangling the world

1058
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 6: as is our right. We have the power and you're

1059
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 6: not going to tell us no. So let's put C

1060
00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:47,200
Speaker 6: two up on the screen. This is Poland saying they

1061
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:49,640
Speaker 6: will now work on getting their own nuclear weapons.

1062
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:52,920
Speaker 4: We have France that we can put up on the

1063
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:53,440
Speaker 4: screen as well.

1064
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:56,080
Speaker 6: This one in New York Times headline Macron expands French

1065
00:52:56,160 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 6: nuclear arsenal and vows protection for neighbors. This is all

1066
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:04,040
Speaker 6: what's transpired in less than a week, and I want

1067
00:53:04,040 --> 00:53:08,640
Speaker 6: to rule also Mark Karney sort of the what's the

1068
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 6: right word arch nemesis of Trump. Ostensibly here's what he said.

1069
00:53:14,960 --> 00:53:15,839
Speaker 4: We can rule this up.

1070
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:19,880
Speaker 17: We support efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear

1071
00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 17: weapon and to prevent its regime from further threatening international

1072
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 17: peace and security, because Canada is taking the world as

1073
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:33,560
Speaker 17: it is passively waiting for a world we wish to be.

1074
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:39,080
Speaker 17: We do, however, take this position with regret because the

1075
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:42,920
Speaker 17: current conflict is another example of the failure of the

1076
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 17: international order. Despite decades of UN Security Council resolutions, the

1077
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 17: tireless work of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the

1078
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:58,240
Speaker 17: succession of sanctions and diplomatic frameworks, Iran's nuclear threat remains,

1079
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:02,400
Speaker 17: and now the United States and Israel have acted without

1080
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 17: engaging the United Nations or consulting allies, including Canada.

1081
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:09,319
Speaker 8: So where to you from here?

1082
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:14,240
Speaker 17: With a rapidly spreading conflict and growing threats to civilian life,

1083
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:20,720
Speaker 17: Canada reaffirms that international law binds all belligerents. We condemned

1084
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 17: the strikes carried out by Iran on civilians and civilian

1085
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 17: infrastructure across the Middle East, and we implore all parties,

1086
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:31,720
Speaker 17: including the United States and Israel, to respect the rules

1087
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:36,400
Speaker 17: of international engagement. Canada calls for a rapid de escalation

1088
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 17: of hostilities and is prepared to assist in achieving this goal.

1089
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:42,319
Speaker 6: Well to your question, Ryan, this is how Trump world

1090
00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:45,239
Speaker 6: sees the like okay, nerd international relations.

1091
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:49,480
Speaker 4: This is real politic. Donald Trump has brought this transparent.

1092
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 6: Naked real politic back to the White House where it

1093
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:55,800
Speaker 6: always was. This was always a pretext used to weaken

1094
00:54:56,239 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 6: the nation state and particularly the United States, to undermine

1095
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:02,040
Speaker 6: US geminy by people who want to control the world

1096
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:06,440
Speaker 6: out of Davos and Brussels, as opposed to letting countries

1097
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:08,080
Speaker 6: drive or fail.

1098
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:10,160
Speaker 4: On their own might and power.

1099
00:55:10,400 --> 00:55:13,279
Speaker 6: And I think that's how like the if we were

1100
00:55:13,280 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 6: trying to flesh out the meat on the bones, that's

1101
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 6: how people would say they're interpreting it. They're not particularly

1102
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 6: concerned about losing support of allies, to be honest.

1103
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:24,399
Speaker 8: Yeah.

1104
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 3: And Markarney is a particularly good example because he gave

1105
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 3: this like famous speech at Davos where he said, you know,

1106
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 3: it's time for us to denounce this, you know, American

1107
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:36,040
Speaker 3: belligerents and gemony, and they're like the fraud.

1108
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:38,280
Speaker 5: That is the international rules based order.

1109
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 3: And then within hours of the US attacking Iran, he

1110
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:45,879
Speaker 3: put out a statement basically in complete lockstep support for it.

1111
00:55:46,200 --> 00:55:48,799
Speaker 3: Now he's out with this this new thing which you

1112
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:51,759
Speaker 3: heard him say, where he's like, well, I support it,

1113
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:54,839
Speaker 3: but it's also it's kind of hypocritical.

1114
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:55,919
Speaker 5: And bad and I shouldn't but I do.

1115
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:56,359
Speaker 4: Right.

1116
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:59,839
Speaker 6: It's like, Okay, it's unclear whether he's saying he's saying

1117
00:55:59,880 --> 00:56:03,640
Speaker 6: the pretext is good, the pretext of international law is good.

1118
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:05,960
Speaker 3: And the war is good, but the war's not being

1119
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:09,759
Speaker 3: done legally, right, Yes, And so I want to talk

1120
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:11,719
Speaker 3: about the role of the Europeans a little bit more

1121
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 3: with Manzia say, let's bring drop sites correspondent back here.

1122
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:19,839
Speaker 3: I want to talk about Europe's role here because they

1123
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 3: kind of get I mean good for Spain, and Spain

1124
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:26,040
Speaker 3: is not the one that I'll be talking about here

1125
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:30,799
Speaker 3: when I bring up last year's last year's events which

1126
00:56:31,880 --> 00:56:35,400
Speaker 3: walk through you know, how we wound up here in

1127
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:42,040
Speaker 3: this war relate connecting to the snap back sanctions that

1128
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 3: the Europeans applied to Iran.

1129
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:47,959
Speaker 5: So when the US, you know.

1130
00:56:47,960 --> 00:56:51,200
Speaker 3: In twenty seventeen, walked out of the Iran nuclear deal,

1131
00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 3: there was still a lot of sanctions relief from the

1132
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:58,919
Speaker 3: Europeans to the Iranians because they had Europeans had also

1133
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:03,279
Speaker 3: made a nuclear deal and Iran was abiding by the

1134
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 3: nuclear deal. But fairly recently, the Europeans, under pressure from

1135
00:57:09,239 --> 00:57:13,480
Speaker 3: the United States, you know, went pretty directly and harshly

1136
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:18,400
Speaker 3: at Iran when it came to economic sanctions. So what

1137
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:22,560
Speaker 3: has been the kind of European posture here, because they're

1138
00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 3: going to present some level of concern over violations of

1139
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:31,960
Speaker 3: the UN and international order. But what was Europe's role,

1140
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 3: as you understand it, in pushing us to this situation.

1141
00:57:37,560 --> 00:57:40,160
Speaker 16: Well, the original Iran nuclear deal that was signed in

1142
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:43,280
Speaker 16: twenty fifteen, was involving the European countries as well, suit

1143
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:46,000
Speaker 16: a very critical role of mediating that. And when Trump

1144
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:48,200
Speaker 16: left the deal, when you violated it, they were very

1145
00:57:48,280 --> 00:57:51,520
Speaker 16: upset about that because they viewed the Iran nuclear deal

1146
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:54,280
Speaker 16: as a great diplomatic achievement that they wanted to avoid.

1147
00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 16: Another Iraq Iraq war was extremely bad for Europe, and

1148
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 16: so they were upset when that happened.

1149
00:58:00,000 --> 00:58:02,160
Speaker 8: And then they tried to keep the deal alive to a.

1150
00:58:02,120 --> 00:58:05,400
Speaker 16: Degree the years after twenty eighteen when Trump left it,

1151
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:08,240
Speaker 16: tried to give the Iranians some other channels they could

1152
00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:10,439
Speaker 16: trade with them. But despite that, for the most part,

1153
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:13,520
Speaker 16: they did abide by the Trump sanctions, the secondary sanction

1154
00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:15,200
Speaker 16: in the bank and so forth. They wouldn't break those

1155
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:17,480
Speaker 16: and go against those and continue dealing with They ran.

1156
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 16: They kind of threw we run under the bus for

1157
00:58:19,040 --> 00:58:21,120
Speaker 16: the most part, although they tried to maintain some sort

1158
00:58:21,160 --> 00:58:24,360
Speaker 16: of you know, life preserver to keep the deal at

1159
00:58:24,360 --> 00:58:27,440
Speaker 16: some degree above water. And that continued for a while.

1160
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:30,400
Speaker 16: But you know, two things happened in your time. When

1161
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 16: the Trump were nagged on the deal and you reimpoll

1162
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:35,840
Speaker 16: the sanctions, the Iranians stopped completely complying with the deal.

1163
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:39,680
Speaker 16: They started to enrich uranium beyond the limits set out

1164
00:58:39,680 --> 00:58:43,240
Speaker 16: in the deal itself, up to sixty percent enrichment. I

1165
00:58:43,240 --> 00:58:45,840
Speaker 16: think ninety percent is a weapons grade. So they were

1166
00:58:45,880 --> 00:58:48,760
Speaker 16: clearly trying to signal that they had leverage and if

1167
00:58:48,760 --> 00:58:51,200
Speaker 16: you keep doing this to them, they could maybe develop

1168
00:58:51,200 --> 00:58:53,720
Speaker 16: a weapon one day without actually doing that. But basically

1169
00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:56,640
Speaker 16: they were not in just a Trump was no longer

1170
00:58:56,800 --> 00:58:58,919
Speaker 16: abuying by the deal. They weren't also completely in buying

1171
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:00,960
Speaker 16: by the deal. They were at least scarting up against

1172
00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:03,520
Speaker 16: the edges of bit a lot, so that put them

1173
00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 16: technically out of compliance. But then the other thing that happened,

1174
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:08,080
Speaker 16: which is a huge I think the impact on the

1175
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:11,200
Speaker 16: European view of the situation, is that when the Ukraine

1176
00:59:11,240 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 16: War broke out, the Iranians start arming Russia in Ukraine.

1177
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:17,440
Speaker 16: They start arming them with these shy head drones. They

1178
00:59:17,440 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 16: have built shot head drone factories in Russia, and that

1179
00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:24,000
Speaker 16: became a very very big part of the war. In fact,

1180
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:26,200
Speaker 16: the shay had drones had a huge impact on the

1181
00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:28,040
Speaker 16: war for a time, and they were Russian to prove

1182
00:59:28,080 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 16: them as well too, and they kept developing them. And

1183
00:59:30,320 --> 00:59:33,320
Speaker 16: you know that that arm that relationship really radicalized the Europeans,

1184
00:59:33,320 --> 00:59:36,160
Speaker 16: I think on the subject, because you know, before that

1185
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:38,400
Speaker 16: their relationship with Iran was they were like the middleman

1186
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:42,440
Speaker 16: between Trump the Iranians and between Trump and the Iranians.

1187
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:45,080
Speaker 16: But now they've become completely hostile. They openly talk about

1188
00:59:45,080 --> 00:59:47,280
Speaker 16: regime changing Iran. I do think that that's a decision

1189
00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:49,520
Speaker 16: a by the Iranians to do that contribute to that

1190
00:59:49,600 --> 00:59:52,680
Speaker 16: a lot. And now you know, this is the sort

1191
00:59:52,680 --> 00:59:55,320
Speaker 16: of strange boundary because now all these European countries have

1192
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:58,360
Speaker 16: basically said that we are done with Iran, we expect

1193
00:59:58,400 --> 01:00:01,720
Speaker 16: a new government to emerge there. But they haven't explained

1194
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 16: how that's going to happen. They haven't really They've kind

1195
01:00:04,440 --> 01:00:06,240
Speaker 16: of put Trump in the driver's seat, and Trump doesn't

1196
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:09,000
Speaker 16: seem to have the intention of doing that. So it's

1197
01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 16: kind of like leaves it in a very strange position.

1198
01:00:11,040 --> 01:00:12,680
Speaker 16: And you know, the speech by Mark Karney is very

1199
01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:14,840
Speaker 16: interesting because first of all, he gave this very of

1200
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 16: course you're very revelatory at the time and very popular

1201
01:00:17,400 --> 01:00:20,520
Speaker 16: speech A dabbles about the new World order. But now

1202
01:00:20,520 --> 01:00:22,280
Speaker 16: he's back to saying all the same things they've gained

1203
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:24,720
Speaker 16: quite pretty quickly. And I think there's a couple of

1204
01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:27,320
Speaker 16: things here. First of all, there's a big Iranian DASPA

1205
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:30,840
Speaker 16: in Canada. It's very politically vocal and very very anti government,

1206
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:34,040
Speaker 16: so they're very pro the Shah for the most part.

1207
01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 16: But also, you know, I think that Canada doesn't really

1208
01:00:36,360 --> 01:00:38,360
Speaker 16: have many options actually because if you are going to

1209
01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:41,760
Speaker 16: be a non aligned, multipolar kind of you know, that's

1210
01:00:41,760 --> 01:00:43,680
Speaker 16: the message if you're trying to send, then you don't

1211
01:00:43,680 --> 01:00:44,680
Speaker 16: really have the power to do that.

1212
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:45,320
Speaker 8: For the most part.

1213
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:47,920
Speaker 16: You kind of left to signal back the same international

1214
01:00:47,960 --> 01:00:51,080
Speaker 16: laws and rules that you were saying were irrelevant. And

1215
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:53,160
Speaker 16: I think that the Canadian position really does mimic the

1216
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:55,640
Speaker 16: European position in many ways because they both are sort

1217
01:00:55,640 --> 01:00:58,080
Speaker 16: of dependent on whatever the US is doing and reduced

1218
01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:00,680
Speaker 16: to kind of giving a commentary on that. But I

1219
01:01:00,720 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 16: do think that if the US is go ahead with

1220
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:06,360
Speaker 16: destroying Iran entirely, that will not end well for Europe.

1221
01:01:06,480 --> 01:01:08,760
Speaker 16: Europe will definitely be impacted, even if America is not

1222
01:01:08,960 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 16: as directly because of the geographical of proximity An. The

1223
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 16: Iraq War, who was devastating for Europe asent mentioned earlier,

1224
01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:18,240
Speaker 16: the Iran war will be much much worse. But the

1225
01:01:18,320 --> 01:01:21,160
Speaker 16: fact that they don't really have the autonomy, they didn't

1226
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:23,960
Speaker 16: really have the vision of how to act independently. It

1227
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:25,600
Speaker 16: means that they're just going to sit back and something

1228
01:01:25,720 --> 01:01:27,800
Speaker 16: being watched this train hit them if it does.

1229
01:01:28,320 --> 01:01:30,240
Speaker 6: Have you read A gerb wrote a whole piece in

1230
01:01:30,280 --> 01:01:33,640
Speaker 6: the Free Press about how this is actually specifically just

1231
01:01:33,720 --> 01:01:37,320
Speaker 6: about China. This is all Trump can't say it for

1232
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 6: whatever reason because he doesn't want to. I guess the

1233
01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:42,160
Speaker 6: reason that have you give gives is that he doesn't

1234
01:01:42,160 --> 01:01:45,040
Speaker 6: want to antagonize China. But this is actually, at the

1235
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:47,200
Speaker 6: end of the day, all about China. Mark Carney has

1236
01:01:47,200 --> 01:01:49,960
Speaker 6: been in hot water for what Trump World sees as

1237
01:01:50,000 --> 01:01:54,800
Speaker 6: overtures to China. And I'm curious as how you see

1238
01:01:54,880 --> 01:01:58,160
Speaker 6: the bricks China dynamic playing out in the minds of

1239
01:01:58,200 --> 01:02:02,920
Speaker 6: like a Mark Karney or Davos World as they consider

1240
01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:07,280
Speaker 6: international law in regard to what's happened over the last week,

1241
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:13,200
Speaker 6: because obviously that's something rigs country is China. They use

1242
01:02:13,240 --> 01:02:15,560
Speaker 6: examples exactly like this to say, what do you what

1243
01:02:15,600 --> 01:02:19,400
Speaker 6: do you mean international law? So could you give us

1244
01:02:19,440 --> 01:02:21,440
Speaker 6: some perspective on how that could play out in the

1245
01:02:21,440 --> 01:02:22,320
Speaker 6: weeks and months ahead.

1246
01:02:23,080 --> 01:02:25,440
Speaker 16: Well, I mean Chinese media and social media on a

1247
01:02:25,480 --> 01:02:28,360
Speaker 16: regular basis, and there's not really a tremendous interest in

1248
01:02:28,400 --> 01:02:28,840
Speaker 16: the subject.

1249
01:02:28,960 --> 01:02:29,560
Speaker 8: For the most part.

1250
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:31,720
Speaker 16: The Chinese government does not have huge trade sides, and

1251
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 16: they were on it's quite limited and lopsided the trade

1252
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:36,439
Speaker 16: that they do have when they were on. The one

1253
01:02:36,520 --> 01:02:38,520
Speaker 16: thing they do trade is oil. They buy als Iran,

1254
01:02:38,560 --> 01:02:41,040
Speaker 16: but it's very it's like a kind of it's a

1255
01:02:41,040 --> 01:02:42,960
Speaker 16: fundable resource first of all, but it's also kind of

1256
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:44,880
Speaker 16: a warped relationship. They don't they kind of abide by

1257
01:02:44,880 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 16: the sanctions for the most part of v Iran. They

1258
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:50,440
Speaker 16: don't have a defense partnership, they don't have a defensive operation,

1259
01:02:50,520 --> 01:02:53,720
Speaker 16: they don't sell I run advanced weapons, they don't seem

1260
01:02:53,720 --> 01:02:55,480
Speaker 16: to have, they don't have a historic trust with them,

1261
01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:56,080
Speaker 16: and so forth.

1262
01:02:56,160 --> 01:02:57,720
Speaker 6: They buy a lot of oil, though right it's like

1263
01:02:57,800 --> 01:03:00,880
Speaker 6: ninety percent of irun and crewed exports are the Chinese market.

1264
01:03:01,800 --> 01:03:03,920
Speaker 16: Yes, but it's only about ten to fifty ten to

1265
01:03:03,960 --> 01:03:06,560
Speaker 16: twelve percent of China's imports, so it's much more important

1266
01:03:06,600 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 16: to the Iranians and it's the Chinese.

1267
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:10,440
Speaker 8: It could be replaced for the Chinese worst case.

1268
01:03:10,440 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 16: Or they would even buy it from a different Iranian government,

1269
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:14,680
Speaker 16: or the Iran government collapse, it's still sold oil. Best

1270
01:03:14,680 --> 01:03:17,800
Speaker 16: line with them, they don't have a strategic bad partnership.

1271
01:03:17,800 --> 01:03:19,920
Speaker 8: But then the country they have a strategic relationship with are.

1272
01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:25,000
Speaker 16: North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, and Belarus, and Iran is not

1273
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:27,440
Speaker 16: really on that list in any way. So I think

1274
01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:29,920
Speaker 16: that trying to say it's about China is it's tempting

1275
01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:31,640
Speaker 16: to make this seem like it's about America in a way,

1276
01:03:31,640 --> 01:03:34,120
Speaker 16: because China is very important to America, but Iran is

1277
01:03:34,120 --> 01:03:36,640
Speaker 16: not important to China. And then that's manifested the lack

1278
01:03:36,680 --> 01:03:39,440
Speaker 16: of support and lack of, you know, any kind of

1279
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 16: material aid that they provide to the Iranians or even

1280
01:03:41,920 --> 01:03:43,720
Speaker 16: attempts to try to stop the war from happening.

1281
01:03:44,240 --> 01:03:46,560
Speaker 8: So I don't think that, you know, and I think

1282
01:03:46,600 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 8: that one thing is doing and I think it's.

1283
01:03:47,920 --> 01:03:50,200
Speaker 16: Already done this before, but the idea of international law

1284
01:03:50,320 --> 01:03:52,840
Speaker 16: it's kind to become ridiculous in a way, like international

1285
01:03:53,000 --> 01:03:55,240
Speaker 16: law and the sense of war and crime and things

1286
01:03:55,240 --> 01:03:58,000
Speaker 16: like this. The Chinese are not expecting that's going to

1287
01:03:58,120 --> 01:04:00,440
Speaker 16: protect them that's why they're building tons of the missiles,

1288
01:04:00,480 --> 01:04:03,200
Speaker 16: and that's why they're expanding their navy and air force

1289
01:04:03,240 --> 01:04:05,000
Speaker 16: at a tremendous rate, because they know that they're not

1290
01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:08,120
Speaker 16: expecting this to take something that's going to they can

1291
01:04:08,160 --> 01:04:10,240
Speaker 16: rely on. One thing that they have noticed about the

1292
01:04:10,280 --> 01:04:12,000
Speaker 16: Iran War is the way that the US dealt with

1293
01:04:12,000 --> 01:04:16,400
Speaker 16: the Iranians during negotiations. They use negotiations as a stalling

1294
01:04:16,480 --> 01:04:20,440
Speaker 16: tactic to mass more forces, as tool of deception and

1295
01:04:20,480 --> 01:04:23,960
Speaker 16: so forth, and they will assume that in a negotiation

1296
01:04:24,080 --> 01:04:26,600
Speaker 16: with the US and the future potentially over Taiwan or

1297
01:04:26,600 --> 01:04:28,600
Speaker 16: an issue like that, that they may do the same

1298
01:04:28,640 --> 01:04:31,840
Speaker 16: to them, and they will treat any negotiation with that

1299
01:04:31,840 --> 01:04:36,880
Speaker 16: suspicion and with that cynicism about what the actual goals are.

1300
01:04:37,160 --> 01:04:40,200
Speaker 16: But beyond that, they're not emotionally invested in the Middle East.

1301
01:04:40,360 --> 01:04:40,760
Speaker 8: They're not.

1302
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:43,480
Speaker 16: They don't have bases there, they don't have any real

1303
01:04:43,480 --> 01:04:47,120
Speaker 16: footprint per se. As long as the oil keeps coming

1304
01:04:47,560 --> 01:04:50,840
Speaker 16: from the few select spots that it comes from, that's fine.

1305
01:04:51,000 --> 01:04:53,720
Speaker 16: And they really have much more deep economic ties with

1306
01:04:53,720 --> 01:04:55,800
Speaker 16: the Gulf States, to be honest, that's much more important

1307
01:04:55,840 --> 01:04:59,000
Speaker 16: to them than Iran is. So I don't really find

1308
01:04:59,040 --> 01:05:01,680
Speaker 16: that this is target wards China because China is just

1309
01:05:01,760 --> 01:05:04,560
Speaker 16: not that impacted by it. It's really hurting everybody else,

1310
01:05:04,800 --> 01:05:07,200
Speaker 16: especially the people in the Gulf States, who are directly

1311
01:05:07,240 --> 01:05:07,880
Speaker 16: wording around.

1312
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:11,640
Speaker 3: Just to connect a few dots from this segment, we

1313
01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:14,640
Speaker 3: talked about Poland saying that it's going to now race

1314
01:05:14,680 --> 01:05:17,920
Speaker 3: for a nuclear weapon. We talked about France saying that

1315
01:05:17,960 --> 01:05:21,080
Speaker 3: it's going to kind of expand its nuclear capacity, and

1316
01:05:21,120 --> 01:05:26,960
Speaker 3: that's all related to Russia and to their Europeans concern

1317
01:05:27,040 --> 01:05:32,240
Speaker 3: about Russian aggression toward them. So it's interesting that the

1318
01:05:32,240 --> 01:05:35,720
Speaker 3: way that you talked about the Iran and Russia relationship

1319
01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:40,120
Speaker 3: developing more tightly as a result of Trump walking away

1320
01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:45,640
Speaker 3: from the Iran nuclear deal and then Iran supplying drones

1321
01:05:45,680 --> 01:05:48,480
Speaker 3: and other military technology to run and tightening that link.

1322
01:05:48,560 --> 01:05:53,640
Speaker 3: So in a world where Trump doesn't walk away from

1323
01:05:53,960 --> 01:05:57,080
Speaker 3: the Iran nuclear deal, do you imagine that the US

1324
01:05:57,120 --> 01:06:00,400
Speaker 3: and Europe would have had more leverage at the time

1325
01:06:00,440 --> 01:06:04,280
Speaker 3: and presently to say to Iran, look, uh, this is

1326
01:06:04,320 --> 01:06:08,400
Speaker 3: a war between Ukraine and Russia. You know, see your

1327
01:06:08,440 --> 01:06:10,120
Speaker 3: way out of this. We don't want we don't want

1328
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:14,800
Speaker 3: you supplying these drones. Look your economy is booming. We've

1329
01:06:14,840 --> 01:06:18,480
Speaker 3: released these sanctions. This this nuclear deal is where everybody's

1330
01:06:18,520 --> 01:06:23,280
Speaker 3: abiding by it. Don't don't don't rock this apple cart?

1331
01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:27,479
Speaker 3: Could you imagine could would? So I'm kind of trying

1332
01:06:27,480 --> 01:06:30,360
Speaker 3: to figure out, like, was was that a decision that actually,

1333
01:06:31,840 --> 01:06:36,680
Speaker 3: you know, heightened tensions between Russia and Europe in a

1334
01:06:36,680 --> 01:06:40,360
Speaker 3: way that wouldn't necessarily have happened if if Trump hadn't

1335
01:06:40,400 --> 01:06:42,800
Speaker 3: just gone in and because Obama's name was on the

1336
01:06:42,880 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 3: nuclear deal, because of the Israelis wanted to rip it up.

1337
01:06:45,040 --> 01:06:45,840
Speaker 5: They just ripped it up.

1338
01:06:46,480 --> 01:06:47,720
Speaker 8: Yeah, there's no doubt about it.

1339
01:06:47,760 --> 01:06:49,880
Speaker 16: And you know, this is a strategic cooperation that the

1340
01:06:49,880 --> 01:06:52,640
Speaker 16: Iranians and the Russians as specifically the shy had rones

1341
01:06:53,080 --> 01:06:55,880
Speaker 16: that was not even reciprocated in a strategic manner by Russia.

1342
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:58,240
Speaker 16: They just paid for them. Could the Iranians the money

1343
01:06:58,280 --> 01:07:01,280
Speaker 16: to their sanctions? So they give the goal transfers and

1344
01:07:01,360 --> 01:07:03,800
Speaker 16: maybe cryptocurrency other ways that they paid them outside the

1345
01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:06,920
Speaker 16: international financial system that was dealing with the Irani's got at.

1346
01:07:07,000 --> 01:07:09,520
Speaker 16: But the Iran Russians are not rushing to defend Iran

1347
01:07:09,720 --> 01:07:13,480
Speaker 16: or even arming Iran with a Russian weaponry tremendous degree,

1348
01:07:13,720 --> 01:07:15,960
Speaker 16: you know, in a strategic way maybe they're selling them something,

1349
01:07:16,040 --> 01:07:18,680
Speaker 16: but not in a way which is just out of alliance.

1350
01:07:19,000 --> 01:07:21,920
Speaker 16: So really it was just out of economic h first

1351
01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:24,120
Speaker 16: to stick it to the Europeans. I guess that say that,

1352
01:07:24,160 --> 01:07:27,880
Speaker 16: you know, we have leverage too, but also for economic reasons.

1353
01:07:27,880 --> 01:07:30,439
Speaker 16: That was the overriding reason really why they started selling

1354
01:07:30,560 --> 01:07:33,520
Speaker 16: weapons to Russia. And I you know, this is actually

1355
01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:35,960
Speaker 16: one of the most important things about this entire issue.

1356
01:07:36,120 --> 01:07:38,640
Speaker 16: The Iranian nuclear program has never been used as a

1357
01:07:38,680 --> 01:07:44,280
Speaker 16: tool of ensuring Iranian national survival by developing a weapon, nor.

1358
01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:46,080
Speaker 8: Has it even been you really used as a tool for.

1359
01:07:46,120 --> 01:07:49,200
Speaker 16: Developing power in Iran per se like electricity if they

1360
01:07:49,200 --> 01:07:52,080
Speaker 16: have few electricity s Shorges. In Iran, the number one

1361
01:07:52,120 --> 01:07:55,400
Speaker 16: reason for the Irani nuclear program has been as leveraged

1362
01:07:55,440 --> 01:07:59,320
Speaker 16: to negotiate their economic reintegration with the West. That's why

1363
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:01,680
Speaker 16: they didn't develop weapon, That's why the didn't actually integrate

1364
01:08:01,720 --> 01:08:03,720
Speaker 16: into the national bled and so forth. They were trying

1365
01:08:03,760 --> 01:08:05,520
Speaker 16: to use this as a tool that we were on

1366
01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:07,400
Speaker 16: the outs, we need to get back in. How do

1367
01:08:07,400 --> 01:08:10,160
Speaker 16: we generate leverage. We can do it this way, And

1368
01:08:10,200 --> 01:08:12,400
Speaker 16: you know, I think it's a very poor decision. And

1369
01:08:12,520 --> 01:08:14,280
Speaker 16: I think that if you're going to develop a nuclear

1370
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:17,519
Speaker 16: program and even enrich outside of normal bounds, you pretty

1371
01:08:17,560 --> 01:08:18,160
Speaker 16: much are locked in.

1372
01:08:18,160 --> 01:08:19,719
Speaker 8: You better go all the way and build the bomb

1373
01:08:19,880 --> 01:08:21,160
Speaker 8: or don't build the program at all.

1374
01:08:21,560 --> 01:08:23,400
Speaker 16: But they tried to go halfway in this way, which

1375
01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:26,160
Speaker 16: was very typical of the governing styles. The former Supreme

1376
01:08:26,240 --> 01:08:29,600
Speaker 16: Leader of the comedy you tried to be the situation

1377
01:08:29,760 --> 01:08:34,799
Speaker 16: of lukewarm sort of nuclearization and lukewarm hostility with Europe

1378
01:08:34,800 --> 01:08:36,679
Speaker 16: and so forth, and even in the US.

1379
01:08:37,040 --> 01:08:39,519
Speaker 8: So I think that that is the ultimate error that

1380
01:08:39,520 --> 01:08:40,559
Speaker 8: the Rani has made if.

1381
01:08:40,520 --> 01:08:43,080
Speaker 16: You compare that to countries like North Korea or Pakistan

1382
01:08:43,040 --> 01:08:45,920
Speaker 16: and so forth, who treated the nuclear weapon as a

1383
01:08:45,960 --> 01:08:48,719
Speaker 16: tool of national survival and ran for it at any cost.

1384
01:08:48,760 --> 01:08:51,400
Speaker 16: There's a famous foot by former Pakistani prime miniership. He

1385
01:08:51,479 --> 01:08:53,880
Speaker 16: said that we will build a nuclear weapon even we

1386
01:08:53,880 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 16: can have to eat grass for you know, one hundred

1387
01:08:56,000 --> 01:08:58,760
Speaker 16: years after this, and that's what they did. Pakistan, you know,

1388
01:08:58,960 --> 01:09:00,719
Speaker 16: did suffer a lot for that. The you know fox

1389
01:09:00,720 --> 01:09:04,000
Speaker 16: that exists today whereas maybe youuron won't. And I think

1390
01:09:04,000 --> 01:09:06,000
Speaker 16: that this is a broader subtext. It's a sort of

1391
01:09:06,000 --> 01:09:09,799
Speaker 16: weird negotiation that taking place with the Europeans and Americans

1392
01:09:09,840 --> 01:09:12,400
Speaker 16: over many, many years, and which is now culminating this

1393
01:09:12,479 --> 01:09:13,800
Speaker 16: disastrous outcome.

1394
01:09:13,520 --> 01:09:15,680
Speaker 8: For the Iranians.

1395
01:09:15,720 --> 01:09:17,760
Speaker 3: I kind of hate knowing stuff about the world because

1396
01:09:17,800 --> 01:09:19,800
Speaker 3: it just makes it that much more miserable knowing that

1397
01:09:19,840 --> 01:09:25,559
Speaker 3: it could be different. Blank Anyway, very bleak Moz. Thank

1398
01:09:25,560 --> 01:09:27,960
Speaker 3: you so much for joining us. People can check out

1399
01:09:28,160 --> 01:09:32,400
Speaker 3: your reporting over at drop site News. Appreciate you being here, essence.

1400
01:09:35,520 --> 01:09:35,720
Speaker 8: Well.

1401
01:09:35,720 --> 01:09:38,160
Speaker 6: As we're recording this, it's nine to twenty five am.

1402
01:09:38,240 --> 01:09:41,760
Speaker 6: The CNBC headline is SMP five hundred futures tick higher

1403
01:09:41,760 --> 01:09:45,679
Speaker 6: as crude oil trades lower after Iran conflict surge. That's

1404
01:09:45,720 --> 01:09:47,920
Speaker 6: again what it's showing right now. By the time you

1405
01:09:48,000 --> 01:09:51,080
Speaker 6: see this, Marcus will be open. But Ryan, I want

1406
01:09:51,080 --> 01:09:53,600
Speaker 6: to roll this clip of Donald Trump but responding to

1407
01:09:53,760 --> 01:09:58,200
Speaker 6: questions yesterday in the Oval office about oil prices. It's

1408
01:09:58,200 --> 01:10:02,040
Speaker 6: a midterm electioneeries focused on cost of living, as his

1409
01:10:02,120 --> 01:10:06,280
Speaker 6: team continues to say, d one, this is Trump on

1410
01:10:06,720 --> 01:10:10,080
Speaker 6: what could happen, what that might mean for him in

1411
01:10:10,120 --> 01:10:12,320
Speaker 6: the near future with oil and gas prices.

1412
01:10:12,600 --> 01:10:15,120
Speaker 11: I'll dear what I have never had more compliments on

1413
01:10:15,240 --> 01:10:18,160
Speaker 11: something I did people felt it something that had to

1414
01:10:18,200 --> 01:10:18,519
Speaker 11: be done.

1415
01:10:18,640 --> 01:10:21,880
Speaker 10: So if we have a little high oil.

1416
01:10:21,680 --> 01:10:25,200
Speaker 11: Prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends,

1417
01:10:25,280 --> 01:10:26,080
Speaker 11: those prices are.

1418
01:10:26,040 --> 01:10:29,000
Speaker 10: Going to drop, I believe, lower than even before.

1419
01:10:29,560 --> 01:10:31,200
Speaker 6: And he rolled out his plan for the straight of

1420
01:10:31,240 --> 01:10:33,880
Speaker 6: Her Moves on truth social Let's put the next element

1421
01:10:33,960 --> 01:10:36,280
Speaker 6: up on the screen writing effective immediately. I've ordered the

1422
01:10:36,360 --> 01:10:39,360
Speaker 6: US Development Finance Corporation to provide at a very reasonable price,

1423
01:10:39,360 --> 01:10:42,640
Speaker 6: political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of

1424
01:10:43,040 --> 01:10:46,960
Speaker 6: all maritime trade, especially energy traveling through the Golf. This

1425
01:10:47,000 --> 01:10:49,560
Speaker 6: will be available to all shipping lines if necessary. The

1426
01:10:49,640 --> 01:10:52,600
Speaker 6: US Navy will begin escorting tankers through the strait of

1427
01:10:52,600 --> 01:10:54,840
Speaker 6: Her Moves as soon as possible. No matter what, the

1428
01:10:54,960 --> 01:10:58,240
Speaker 6: US will ensure the free flow of energy to the world.

1429
01:10:58,360 --> 01:11:01,519
Speaker 6: The US's economic military might is the greatest on Earth.

1430
01:11:01,720 --> 01:11:04,640
Speaker 4: More actions to come. Thank you for your attention to

1431
01:11:05,080 --> 01:11:06,040
Speaker 4: this matter.

1432
01:11:06,720 --> 01:11:09,400
Speaker 6: And D three, we can go ahead and put latest

1433
01:11:09,439 --> 01:11:12,719
Speaker 6: oil barrel prices up on the screen. So this would

1434
01:11:12,720 --> 01:11:15,479
Speaker 6: actually be as of yesterday, I think is when we

1435
01:11:15,560 --> 01:11:20,599
Speaker 6: got this graphic in. So yeah, crude oil prices surge

1436
01:11:20,600 --> 01:11:23,320
Speaker 6: above seventy seven dollars a barrel to their highest level

1437
01:11:23,360 --> 01:11:25,680
Speaker 6: since January twenty first, twenty twenty five, one day after

1438
01:11:25,720 --> 01:11:30,759
Speaker 6: President Trump's inauguration, and then Cobs letter says on X commentary,

1439
01:11:30,880 --> 01:11:33,599
Speaker 6: the entire oil price decline under President Trump has now

1440
01:11:33,840 --> 01:11:37,680
Speaker 6: been erased. So you can see why he's eager to

1441
01:11:38,040 --> 01:11:42,720
Speaker 6: downplay any concerns or to undercut concerns by saying, well,

1442
01:11:42,760 --> 01:11:46,000
Speaker 6: this is this is great for other reasons. Oil prices

1443
01:11:46,400 --> 01:11:48,320
Speaker 6: is something we might have to put up with. Ryan

1444
01:11:48,479 --> 01:11:50,559
Speaker 6: reaction to Trump's comments yesterday.

1445
01:11:50,760 --> 01:11:53,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's taking I just noticed it's taking down

1446
01:11:53,120 --> 01:11:55,639
Speaker 3: a couple bucks, down about seventy three or seventy seventy

1447
01:11:55,640 --> 01:11:59,680
Speaker 3: four dollars. It'll much depend on on you know, if

1448
01:11:59,680 --> 01:12:01,800
Speaker 3: and when, if and when this ends. As you know

1449
01:12:01,840 --> 01:12:07,240
Speaker 3: Trump's promise that he is going to escort oil tankers

1450
01:12:07,240 --> 01:12:12,520
Speaker 3: through the Strait of Ormus and and also reinsure them,

1451
01:12:13,160 --> 01:12:17,880
Speaker 3: it is quite an aggressive step. It reinsurance basically runs

1452
01:12:17,880 --> 01:12:21,120
Speaker 3: the world like it's that is the actual cabal that

1453
01:12:21,200 --> 01:12:25,320
Speaker 3: runs it. You know, if if we stop ensuring properties

1454
01:12:25,640 --> 01:12:29,160
Speaker 3: in Florida, for instance, like forget it, like that's that's it.

1455
01:12:29,800 --> 01:12:31,799
Speaker 3: And so the way that this works is these massive

1456
01:12:31,800 --> 01:12:35,600
Speaker 3: oil tankers have that have insurance and it costs a

1457
01:12:35,640 --> 01:12:38,720
Speaker 3: particular amount to get through, you know, a particular part

1458
01:12:38,720 --> 01:12:43,320
Speaker 3: of the world, and the reinsurres once Iran said the

1459
01:12:43,320 --> 01:12:45,840
Speaker 3: straight up, our moves is closed, said forget it like

1460
01:12:45,920 --> 01:12:51,000
Speaker 3: we're not we're not backing these up because for obvious reasons.

1461
01:12:52,280 --> 01:12:54,840
Speaker 3: And so Trump is saying, all right, two things will

1462
01:12:55,000 --> 01:12:58,160
Speaker 3: We'll send in the navy and we and we will

1463
01:12:58,280 --> 01:13:02,479
Speaker 3: use our own basically tax dollars through this Development Finance

1464
01:13:02,520 --> 01:13:06,840
Speaker 3: Corporation to offer the insurance itself, and so then it's

1465
01:13:06,960 --> 01:13:09,880
Speaker 3: up to the ships to risk it. Now, the Navy

1466
01:13:09,880 --> 01:13:12,040
Speaker 3: has subsequently said, actually, we don't really have a whole

1467
01:13:12,080 --> 01:13:14,960
Speaker 3: lot of capacity to do this escorting. So all of

1468
01:13:14,960 --> 01:13:17,439
Speaker 3: a sudden they started getting calls, hey, i've gotten ship stuck.

1469
01:13:17,880 --> 01:13:21,240
Speaker 3: Help me out, Like, no, it's just we don't really

1470
01:13:21,240 --> 01:13:23,400
Speaker 3: mean that. But if you here, here's the process to

1471
01:13:23,400 --> 01:13:27,920
Speaker 3: get some insurance. So Iran has been attacking a couple

1472
01:13:27,960 --> 01:13:30,880
Speaker 3: of tankers and hitting them and it doesn't take much

1473
01:13:30,920 --> 01:13:35,240
Speaker 3: to completely to completely seize them up. Meanwhile, you put

1474
01:13:35,280 --> 01:13:38,439
Speaker 3: up D four, they've said, and we'll see you know

1475
01:13:38,479 --> 01:13:42,160
Speaker 3: how effective that this is, they said. They've said that

1476
01:13:42,240 --> 01:13:45,479
Speaker 3: Chinese and Russian vessels can get through which would be

1477
01:13:45,560 --> 01:13:47,519
Speaker 3: ironic if then the US says, well, no, no, they

1478
01:13:47,560 --> 01:13:55,160
Speaker 3: can't worth closing them, and or do these oil tankers

1479
01:13:55,160 --> 01:13:58,160
Speaker 3: that are stuck reach out to the Chinese and reflag

1480
01:13:58,240 --> 01:14:01,880
Speaker 3: themselves as Chinese and China then gets half of it

1481
01:14:02,000 --> 01:14:05,240
Speaker 3: or something and maybe like we'll you know, we'll we'll see.

1482
01:14:06,240 --> 01:14:07,600
Speaker 5: Meanwhile, it's.

1483
01:14:09,760 --> 01:14:12,680
Speaker 3: I think so what it's March right, We're gonna be

1484
01:14:12,720 --> 01:14:17,160
Speaker 3: talking about primaries next with the the David Serota and

1485
01:14:17,240 --> 01:14:23,000
Speaker 3: Dave Weigel midterms are coming. I don't, you know, I

1486
01:14:23,040 --> 01:14:26,960
Speaker 3: don't know if it's true that the public thinks that

1487
01:14:27,000 --> 01:14:29,160
Speaker 3: this is the greatest thing anybody's ever done, and that

1488
01:14:29,160 --> 01:14:30,240
Speaker 3: they're willing to pay.

1489
01:14:31,920 --> 01:14:33,400
Speaker 5: Higher gas and energy prices.

1490
01:14:33,200 --> 01:14:35,559
Speaker 4: Because independents definitely don't and won't.

1491
01:14:35,760 --> 01:14:39,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, and get like, it's not just that you're pushing

1492
01:14:40,000 --> 01:14:42,360
Speaker 3: you might push to like four dollars a gallon.

1493
01:14:42,200 --> 01:14:42,600
Speaker 5: Or something like.

1494
01:14:42,640 --> 01:14:43,160
Speaker 8: That's not just it.

1495
01:14:43,960 --> 01:14:48,800
Speaker 3: It filters through the entire economy. Yeah, Trump actively, you know,

1496
01:14:49,080 --> 01:14:52,840
Speaker 3: smashed very deliberately and proudly any attempt to move to

1497
01:14:52,880 --> 01:14:56,880
Speaker 3: renewable energy, and so everything in the economy runs on

1498
01:14:56,960 --> 01:14:58,960
Speaker 3: fossil fuels. As though if you push up that price,

1499
01:14:59,439 --> 01:15:02,960
Speaker 3: everything and gets more expensive, and I can't imagine that

1500
01:15:02,960 --> 01:15:05,320
Speaker 3: people are going to be like, oh, well, that's good

1501
01:15:05,360 --> 01:15:08,000
Speaker 3: because at least Israel got to have its war with Iron.

1502
01:15:08,160 --> 01:15:10,040
Speaker 6: Well, that's why they were so freaked out about the messaging,

1503
01:15:10,040 --> 01:15:13,280
Speaker 6: as we covered earlier, which I think we're arguing is

1504
01:15:13,360 --> 01:15:18,639
Speaker 6: reflective of a conflicted, muddled, in conclusive strategy itself sort

1505
01:15:18,640 --> 01:15:20,840
Speaker 6: of sprung from that. Well, but that's why they're freaked

1506
01:15:20,840 --> 01:15:23,519
Speaker 6: out about it, because now when people are looking back on, huh,

1507
01:15:23,560 --> 01:15:26,360
Speaker 6: why are these prices higher, Well, there are these clips

1508
01:15:26,360 --> 01:15:28,080
Speaker 6: that are going to ring in their minds if they

1509
01:15:28,120 --> 01:15:31,000
Speaker 6: follow the news very closely about Mark Arrubio saying what

1510
01:15:31,080 --> 01:15:33,320
Speaker 6: we heard Israel is going to strike or Mike Conson

1511
01:15:33,400 --> 01:15:35,960
Speaker 6: saying we heard Israel is going to strike. Democrats will

1512
01:15:36,040 --> 01:15:41,120
Speaker 6: use that sympathy for Israel among voters has plummeted, and

1513
01:15:41,760 --> 01:15:45,360
Speaker 6: that means independence, particularly if you need them to turn

1514
01:15:45,400 --> 01:15:48,280
Speaker 6: out in a place like North Carolina. For Republicans, you

1515
01:15:48,320 --> 01:15:51,280
Speaker 6: have a problem. So let's turn to developments from Cutter.

1516
01:15:51,880 --> 01:15:56,600
Speaker 6: This is the next element Cutter Energy to stop downstream production.

1517
01:15:57,120 --> 01:16:01,040
Speaker 6: Cutter Energy values its relationship with all of its stakeholders

1518
01:16:01,080 --> 01:16:06,280
Speaker 6: and will continue to communicate the latest available information. Gas, Yeah, yep,

1519
01:16:06,400 --> 01:16:09,479
Speaker 6: L and G. And then the next element, this is

1520
01:16:09,479 --> 01:16:17,040
Speaker 6: the Reuter's headline, Cutter smelter shutdown exacerbates Iran wore aluminum fears.

1521
01:16:17,160 --> 01:16:19,200
Speaker 6: The impact of the US is really attacks on Iran

1522
01:16:19,240 --> 01:16:22,719
Speaker 6: on the aluminum sector deepened on Tuesday after cutting smelter

1523
01:16:23,160 --> 01:16:27,320
Speaker 6: Katalam began to shut down and shareholder Norsk Hydro issued

1524
01:16:27,360 --> 01:16:32,679
Speaker 6: a force measurer to customers. Ryan, Everything's going according to plan.

1525
01:16:32,840 --> 01:16:35,000
Speaker 3: Right, So this is the way that things cascade through

1526
01:16:35,000 --> 01:16:38,720
Speaker 3: the economy. And so the South Korean market, which has

1527
01:16:38,800 --> 01:16:43,679
Speaker 3: been surging throughout the year, had an absolutely massive sell

1528
01:16:43,720 --> 01:16:46,719
Speaker 3: out sell off hit one of those circuit breakers where

1529
01:16:46,720 --> 01:16:52,879
Speaker 3: they're like, okay, just stop trading. This is an absolute catastrophe.

1530
01:16:53,080 --> 01:16:57,519
Speaker 3: You've had other Asian markets selling off as well.

1531
01:16:57,840 --> 01:16:58,320
Speaker 8: So far.

1532
01:16:58,600 --> 01:17:03,000
Speaker 3: The US market it's have you know, no, they're they're

1533
01:17:03,040 --> 01:17:05,519
Speaker 3: they're volatile, but they're like they you know, they haven't

1534
01:17:05,520 --> 01:17:08,680
Speaker 3: been completely rocked yet. We'll see what we'll see what

1535
01:17:08,720 --> 01:17:11,759
Speaker 3: happens today. But you know this, this stuff then starts

1536
01:17:11,760 --> 01:17:16,599
Speaker 3: to become self reinforcing. Yeah, if you if you are

1537
01:17:16,920 --> 01:17:19,280
Speaker 3: if you are leveraged in you know, one in a

1538
01:17:19,360 --> 01:17:22,880
Speaker 3: market that dives, and now you've got margin calls coming

1539
01:17:22,920 --> 01:17:24,160
Speaker 3: in you have to meet that. Then you have to

1540
01:17:24,200 --> 01:17:27,439
Speaker 3: sell off other assets in order to pay pay that,

1541
01:17:27,520 --> 01:17:29,040
Speaker 3: and then that dives, and then you have to sell

1542
01:17:29,080 --> 01:17:31,160
Speaker 3: off those eyes that. So that's why, and then you

1543
01:17:31,240 --> 01:17:36,080
Speaker 3: have all of these ais out there trading in ways

1544
01:17:36,360 --> 01:17:39,040
Speaker 3: where they're trying to like, you know, find little arbitrage

1545
01:17:39,080 --> 01:17:42,120
Speaker 3: around the world. And so that you know that can

1546
01:17:42,439 --> 01:17:44,960
Speaker 3: you know, produce some kind of runaway moves once you

1547
01:17:45,080 --> 01:17:48,799
Speaker 3: once you break through, you know, thresholds that people expect

1548
01:17:49,360 --> 01:17:51,479
Speaker 3: to be you know, to be stable.

1549
01:17:51,640 --> 01:17:53,320
Speaker 6: And bear in mind there is no regime change plan.

1550
01:17:53,360 --> 01:17:55,799
Speaker 6: Donald Trump just said that in the Oval Office yesterday.

1551
01:17:55,840 --> 01:17:57,840
Speaker 6: He said, we don't know if it'll be better or worse.

1552
01:17:57,880 --> 01:18:00,639
Speaker 6: We don't actually know if it's Poulavy or someone else.

1553
01:18:00,880 --> 01:18:04,160
Speaker 6: And so the certainty for people who are triting and

1554
01:18:04,280 --> 01:18:08,240
Speaker 6: trying to make financial decisions here is absent. Yeah, nobody

1555
01:18:08,240 --> 01:18:09,960
Speaker 6: has any I mean, this is already in the broader

1556
01:18:10,400 --> 01:18:14,280
Speaker 6: tariff climate, which is putting a lot of uncertain injecting

1557
01:18:14,280 --> 01:18:16,360
Speaker 6: a lot of uncertainty into the markets right now. So

1558
01:18:17,200 --> 01:18:21,080
Speaker 6: incredibly shaky global economy, that's I mean, it's always shaky,

1559
01:18:21,160 --> 01:18:24,200
Speaker 6: but right now. The fragility is on another level.

1560
01:18:24,520 --> 01:18:27,160
Speaker 3: And I think, to me, this is the markets and

1561
01:18:27,360 --> 01:18:29,439
Speaker 3: the economy and oil prices are everything. And I think

1562
01:18:29,479 --> 01:18:33,440
Speaker 3: Iron understands that the only language that Trump really understands

1563
01:18:33,479 --> 01:18:38,960
Speaker 3: is this is money, is affordability, which he's called a hoax,

1564
01:18:38,960 --> 01:18:40,960
Speaker 3: and which is advisors.

1565
01:18:40,960 --> 01:18:42,880
Speaker 5: I'm sure every time die inside when he.

1566
01:18:43,120 --> 01:18:45,479
Speaker 3: When he says that, and when he says things like, yeah,

1567
01:18:45,479 --> 01:18:48,080
Speaker 3: people can handle a little bit of pay a little.

1568
01:18:47,840 --> 01:18:49,840
Speaker 4: More, because I've never gotten so many compliment.

1569
01:18:49,520 --> 01:18:53,800
Speaker 3: I've never had so many compliments, sir. Just absolutely incredible, sir.

1570
01:18:54,280 --> 01:18:57,360
Speaker 3: I weep with joy every time I pay more at

1571
01:18:57,360 --> 01:19:00,479
Speaker 3: the pump, just so that I can sacrifice on behalf

1572
01:19:00,479 --> 01:19:02,240
Speaker 3: of your genius and brilliance and bravery.

1573
01:19:03,000 --> 01:19:06,759
Speaker 6: Yeah, that'll that'll go well in North Carolina and Texas.

1574
01:19:11,479 --> 01:19:11,519
Speaker 17: M