WEBVTT - Record-Breaking Black Friday Sales, Despite Pandemic 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.200 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEO, market pros and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:20.760 and on Bloomberg dot com. Well, I think I just 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:23.480 figured out why Tom Keene was not in today. He 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:27.320 is home with his computer online shopping, and I'm sure 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:30.920 he's got a lot of other folks they're joining him. 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:33.839 It's supposed to be a record cyber Monday here is 0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:38.040 more and more people shop online, abandonedents stores and go online. 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:41.920 John Copeland, VP of Marketing and Customer Insights at Adobe 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:45.040 UH he joins US Adobes based in San Jose, California. 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:48.519 So John, give us the early early read here of 0:00:48.880 --> 0:00:52.720 a Black Friday going into a cyber Monday, leading us 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:56.959 to the final weeks of holiday shopping. Yeah. So it's 0:00:57.000 --> 0:01:01.000 been a record breaking Thanksgiving weekend already with over twenty 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:04.720 three and a half billion dollars in online sales. That's 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:09.520 a increase over last year. Today, Cyber Monday, we are 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:14.199 expecting a day to break all previous records for US 0:01:14.319 --> 0:01:17.880 online sales, coming in somewhere between ten point eight and 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:21.800 twelve point seven billion dollars. That will be somewhere between 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:27.880 a fifteen and increase over last year. So it's interesting, Um, 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:30.600 you know, you you think about those numbers that you 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:33.720 just mentioned, John, in terms of you know, the overall 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:35.720 numbers and in some of the growth rates and so on, 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:39.240 it's just extraordinary given what's going on in the world, 0:01:39.360 --> 0:01:43.240 given uh, the tough times that many consumers find themselves 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.200 in here as a result of the pandemic and unemployment. 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:49.160 Seems like a lot of this unemployment is now chronic unemployment. 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:52.320 What do you make of it? Yeah, you know what, 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:56.080 part of what we're seeing is really people trying to 0:01:56.960 --> 0:02:00.800 have as much of a kind of normal Christmas and 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:04.280 celebration as as possible, right, I mean, I've I've seen 0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:07.440 a lot of stories about people setting up their Christmas 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:10.960 decorations even before Thanksgiving. In fact, we we did that 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:14.000 in our house this year, trying to have more of 0:02:14.000 --> 0:02:17.760 that kind of traditional end of your holiday spirit in 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:20.600 the context of this really really challenging year. And so 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:24.320 people are doing what they can to try and bring 0:02:24.360 --> 0:02:26.840 as much of a normal end of your holiday home 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:30.079 as they can. All Right, So, John, we already saw 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:34.560 obviously even before the pandemic, UH a year's long trend 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:39.679 of more and more share of retail sales going to online. 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:44.000 It seems to have been dramatically accelerated here during the pandemic. 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:47.200 Is there any reason to think that post pandemic it's 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:49.519 gonna kind of ebb and maybe go the other way? 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:52.240 Or is or is some of these market shifts that 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:55.440 we've seen, are they more permanent? Yeah, you know, that's 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:58.960 the question everybody is really asking and interested in. We 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:01.840 expect that, you know, a good chunk of this new 0:03:01.880 --> 0:03:06.400 digital behavior will probably stick around. Is consumers are finding 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:10.079 out that you know, the convenience of online ordering and 0:03:10.120 --> 0:03:12.680 either having it delivered to their home or being able 0:03:12.680 --> 0:03:16.280 to pick up in the store. Um, even through contactlets 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:19.600 delivery is just become so convenient for them. It will 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:21.919 probably bounce back, and you know, people will be doing 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:24.960 a lot offline as soon as they can and as 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:28.919 soon as they feel safe and comfortable doing that. But um, 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:32.359 you know, we we've continued to see this digital increase, 0:03:32.400 --> 0:03:35.000 certainly during the holidays, for example, a good thirteen to 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:37.400 fifteen percent a year this year is really like two 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:40.880 years of growth packed into a single year um and 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:42.800 that's really going to be hard for people to to 0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:46.280 step away from, even when they can. So that kind 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:47.960 of goes to the question, you know, when you talk 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:50.520 about retail, when you ever you have a discussion, maybe 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:52.400 even with the last decade or so, it comes to 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:56.160 the question of to what extent is the US retail 0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:59.600 footprint overstored? And then when you get you know, a 0:03:59.640 --> 0:04:01.760 period that we're going through right now where we're seeing 0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:05.160 um so many people going over to e commerce, it 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:07.560 kind of brings that question to the four Yet again, 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:09.120 what's your thought about that as you look at the 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:12.600 US retail landscape. Yeah, I think this year has really 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:15.559 shown that, I don't know, it's so much about being overstored, 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:20.320 but certainly maybe under digital if you want um And 0:04:20.320 --> 0:04:21.800 and that's one of the things that we see a 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:26.080 lot of businesses pushing into accelerating the digital transformations this year. 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:29.800 Retail as well as other sectors of the economy really 0:04:29.839 --> 0:04:34.320 pushing hard into digital. And as that happens, we expect 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:37.960 to see even more kind of fundamental disruptions to the 0:04:38.000 --> 0:04:40.840 way you know, business models work, and if you're not 0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:44.120 in a digital channel, it's going to be really, really difficult. 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:47.479 So John, give us a sense of what's hot this 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:52.760 holiday season from a product perspective, and maybe what's not. Yeah, 0:04:52.800 --> 0:04:55.160 so one of the well instead of the what's not, 0:04:55.360 --> 0:04:57.400 I can I can definitely tell you, for example, the 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:02.279 electronic game platforms you know, PS five, Xbox and and 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:04.600 all of the games that go with them. So NBA 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:09.960 two K one, Madden, NFL twenty one. Just it's really 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:13.400 hot right now. Um. In terms of toys more generally, 0:05:13.440 --> 0:05:17.080 Star Wars toys are really big. Nerve is really big 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:20.520 right now. Control right, Um, we expect to see a 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:23.640 lot with you know, even still continuing successes of like 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:28.160 L O L Surprise UH and hatch Amoles will continue 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:31.800 to be strong this holiday season. So John, you know, 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:33.520 we saw in the beginning of the pandemic some of 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:37.320 these retailers, pair of retailers fought for bankruptcy. Ever, we 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:41.440 can see more of that. That's really tough to say. 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:43.919 I think as as retailers are figuring out how to 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:47.400 make digital work, and they're pushing harder to get more 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:52.119 sales through their Hopefully that will tide them over while 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:55.200 the economy, you know, begins to get back to normal 0:05:55.240 --> 0:05:57.160 as we start to see you know, light at the 0:05:57.240 --> 0:06:00.479 end of the tunnel and the vaccines become available and hopefully, 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:04.680 you know, things can begin to turn around in it. John, 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:06.440 thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciated. We 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:08.799 know you're busy this time of the year. John Copeland, 0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:13.120 VP of Marketing and Customer Insights at Adobe, based in 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:17.240 San Jose, California. You know, generally a what we're hearing 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:20.040 here is retail sales here during US a Black Friday, 0:06:20.040 --> 0:06:23.440 Cyber Monday, generally pretty healthy when given everything that we 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:27.440 are dealing with. So there's that for the consumer. Let's 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:32.240 switch gears right now and talk about commodities, particularly UH 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:34.840 crude oil. And there's really no one better to do 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:38.760 that with than Ellen Walled, President of Transversal Consulting. She 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:42.560 is also Bloomberg Opinion contributor. So Ellen, love to talk 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:45.640 to you about OPEK. What do you expect for their 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:47.920 upcoming meeting? Here, I'm looking at w t I cruded 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:51.200 at forty five dollars seems kind of range bound here. 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:55.159 What are you looking for? Yeah, so thank you. We're 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:58.679 looking for at this point, we're not looking for any 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:02.680 big resolution, and today it seems like the OPEC group 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.560 is going to push that off until tomorrow when larger 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:09.520 OPAQ plus group including Russia meets, But the expectation is 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:13.080 that they are going to have agreed to extend their 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:17.600 current quotas for another three months, so into the first 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:21.640 quarter of one, and that will be a change. Right now, 0:07:21.680 --> 0:07:25.320 they're actually scheduled to increase production by two million barrels 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:28.680 per day come January one. And it's interesting because oil 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:34.520 has trended upwards uh recently, mostly on positive vaccine news, 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:38.040 but there are a lot of fears in terms of demand. 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:40.760 There's really a lot of demand weakness in Europe and 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:42.800 the United States that doesn't look like it's going to 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:46.360 resolve itself anytime soon, and so there's a lot of 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:49.480 fears that if OPEC doesn't come through with this three 0:07:49.480 --> 0:07:52.840 month extension, that um, we could be seeing an end 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:55.960 to this oil rally. Yeah, it's inter I'm glad you 0:07:55.960 --> 0:07:58.520 brought up kind of kind of where the oil is 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:00.480 trading here. You take a look at the equa markets 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:02.640 for example, and there you know, as in the month 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:06.920 of November all time highs, tremendous records for performance within 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:10.320 a month. A lot of that based upon the expectations 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:12.880 that the vaccines in fact are coming, the economies will 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:15.640 in fact open up next year, and you need to 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:19.520 make your bets today. Are you surprised that oil hasn't 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:24.200 traded better. I'm not deprised that oil hasn't traded better. 0:08:24.280 --> 0:08:27.800 I'm actually surprised that that this rally has been sustained 0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:30.880 for as long as it has, because the fundamentals are 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:33.920 really not very good when you're looking at demand and 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:37.559 also when you're looking at supply. We've got libbyan oil 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:40.400 production coming back on the market, and so that's adding 0:08:40.440 --> 0:08:43.920 could add another million barrels a day, regardless of what 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:47.839 Opaque decides. So we've got lagging demand. These vaccines aren't 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:50.640 really going to be uh, you know, in the general 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:54.480 available to people all over the world until well into 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:58.160 so I think oil is really looking at um kind 0:08:58.160 --> 0:09:01.320 of a shorter term than the markets are. But so 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:05.640 it's interesting that the rally we saw around the initial 0:09:05.720 --> 0:09:09.240 vaccine news has been maintained, and it does seem like 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:12.720 it's up to opeque a bit to keep or sustain 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:17.280 or kind of put a floor on oil prices. So, Ellen, 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:19.520 what do you think or what's what are you hearing 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:22.080 from the folks you talk to in the global energy space? 0:09:22.520 --> 0:09:26.520 What does a Biden administration mean and what does it 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:29.040 mean for kind of global oil supply? How do you 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:32.040 think about that? Yeah, this is this is a big 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:35.560 question on everyone's mind. It definitely means more support for 0:09:35.640 --> 0:09:37.719 alternative energies, But the big question is what does it 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:40.520 mean for US production because that's really been a game 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:42.960 changer in the oil industry over the past few years. 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:46.720 Right now, the US has backed off of its production highs, 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:51.920 but that really was was expected even before the COVID 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:56.280 nineteen pandemic kind of demolished a lot of production in 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:59.400 uh the shale industry. But I think what we're looking 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:03.600 at our further consolidation in the shale oil industry. There 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:06.160 are big companies out there that are doing production, and 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:09.600 I think they will fare fairly well under a Biden 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:13.920 administration because a lot of the new regulations that he's 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:16.480 looking at will actually be beneficial to them and will 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:20.240 help keep smaller producers from really getting into the game. 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:23.400 But what about shale in general. Here it seems like 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:25.880 it's been, as you mentioned, kind of real game changer 0:10:26.040 --> 0:10:30.080 for global supply as the US has become an actually 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:34.959 a net exporter. Here is the expectation that the best 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:37.280 days of the U s shell patch are in the 0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:41.160 rear view mirror. I do think that they the production 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:43.960 heydays are definitely in the rear view mirror. But remember 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:47.080 that it was actually under the Obama administration that the 0:10:47.160 --> 0:10:51.360 us UH finally ended the oil export ban and became 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:55.000 a player in the global oil market. So I don't 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:57.040 think we're looking to see a reversal of that in 0:10:57.080 --> 0:10:59.560 any case. I do think the big question, though, is 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:03.040 what's going to happen with China. Because the Trump administrations 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:06.640 to succeed in getting China to agree to purchase a 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:10.040 fairly large amount of oil and energy products from the 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:13.120 United States. They haven't quite followed through on that, but 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:18.439 they have made a very significant um mark towards that goal. 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:20.240 And so I think that everyone is going to be 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:22.960 really wondering where's the Biden administration going to go with this. 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:25.480 Are we going to to see more? Is he gonna 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:28.520 hold China to this promise or is that kind of 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:32.120 out of the window. So as it relates to China, Ellen, 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:35.679 we've seen them, you know, whether the pandemic. They are 0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:38.480 on the other side of of the pandemic. We're starting 0:11:38.520 --> 0:11:41.199 to see the economy put up some decent growth numbers 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:44.200 as the economy opens up. Have we seen that in 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:47.440 the global energy markets? Have the Chinese been stepping up 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:52.160 their purchases on the global crude market? Yeah? Absolutely, China 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:55.079 is really I think where a lot in China is 0:11:55.120 --> 0:11:58.360 where a lot of the big um national oil producers, 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:02.679 Saudi Arabia, you are really focusing their attention because um, 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:06.600 they issued new quotas for the independent refineries, So that 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.400 means that those refineries are going to be drawing down 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:13.240 oil stocks, They're going to be taking in more crude oil, refining, 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:16.320 making more products and shipping that out. And um, they're 0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:19.720 really looking at China to kind of be a bright 0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:23.800 spot in the oil demand picture. So where where do 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:25.400 we see that, Like, do we see that in just 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:28.280 the price of oil? Do we track shipments? And if 0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:31.800 we track shipments, do we track them from certain suppliers? 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:35.199 How how do you track that? Yeah, so we definitely 0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:39.000 look at um at loadings that go to Asia to 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:42.080 China and how that's going, but also the number of 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:45.880 ships that are actually sitting waiting UH in ports in 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:48.839 Asia to unload their product. Sometimes that can be really 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:52.360 backed up when um, you know, when refineries aren't taking 0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:56.960 are aren't taking coil in and so as we see 0:12:57.000 --> 0:13:00.840 those stocks decline, that's an education and then usually oil 0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:05.199 prices do respond when we get word that these uh 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:09.120 these ships are actually onloading their oil. Hey, Ellen, thanks 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:11.280 so much for joining us. We appreciate that. At interesting 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:13.640 times in the global energy space. Ellen Wild, president of 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:18.800 Transversal Consulting and a Bloomberg Opinion contributor, we appreciate her thoughts. 0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:23.800 As always, we've been hearing from the good folks like 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:27.560 Dave Wilson Sarah Ponza this morning about what a record 0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:30.600 setting month it was for equity markets in the month 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:33.440 of November. That's all well and good, but the cynic 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:36.480 in me says, Okay, now what do I do well? 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:40.079 Matt MAILEI chief market strategists at Miller Tebeck, and I 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:42.320 found over the mail report. Hopefully he'll have some answers 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:45.720 for me. So, Matt, We've had an extraordinary run here 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:48.400 in November, driven in large part by some really positive 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:50.640 news on the vaccine front, and we had some more 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:54.320 good news today. Um, what is your thought for the 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.960 remainder of the year heading into one, given that whether's 0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:01.360 pandemic numbers are just getting worse and worse. Yeah, I 0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:04.560 mean that's certainly something to be concerned about, no question. 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.800 I'm actually more a little bit more concerned about it 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:08.760 next year than I am this year. And from the 0:14:08.800 --> 0:14:10.960 main the main reason, Well, first of all, today's pull 0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:12.960 back is no big surprise. I mean, we've had this 0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:15.800 great run and I mean especially the Russell two thousand, 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:18.920 I mean as up over UH in just a month. 0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:21.480 So the fact that it's down in almost about percent 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:23.160 and a half today is not a big deal and 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.840 needs to digest those gains in the overall market and 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:27.680 may have to do that for a couple of days. 0:14:27.720 --> 0:14:31.040 But the liquidity situation is still very strong, and it's 0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:33.560 kind of weird. I mean what we went back whatever 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:36.640 is six or eight years ago and people were talking about, hey, 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:39.600 you know if the if, if the economy starts to 0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:42.440 slow down, the FED will add more stimulus or do 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:44.480 more QUI so we don't have to worry if the 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:47.160 economy does better well, that's good. We don't have to 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:48.840 worry about that. So it was kind of a win win. 0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:51.840 Now we're looking at that with and it's oddly as 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:55.680 it sounds, the virus UH and the lockdowns that are 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:58.200 going with it, and the concerns about the slowing growth 0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:01.200 will I believe ENTI see the FED to keep their 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:04.200 liquidity spick. It's wide open through the end of the 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:07.160 year and into the early next year. Uh, much like 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:09.680 they did last year. For a very different reason. They 0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:11.240 did it last year because if we had remember we 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:13.800 had the big repot problem in the fall of last year, 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:15.760 and they needed to keep the liquidity speakers open then. 0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:18.400 But I think both will lead into a very similar 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:21.880 year continued here in rally. So, Matt, what we've certainly see, 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:23.760 not just in the month in November, but really since 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:26.640 you know our September ish or so, is that that 0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:29.680 rotation trade people kind of lightening up a little bit, 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:31.840 some of those tried and true big tech names, whether 0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:34.040 it's an Amazon or an Apple uh, and kind of 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:37.680 rotating into the names that will benefit with the rebounding 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:42.880 the economy. Presumably sometime in cyclical small caps so on 0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:45.480 and so forth. So is that a trade you like. 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:47.720 If so, do you still like it here? Heading into 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:51.920 I do, but maybe not as much as I think 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:54.760 a lot of people are. And the reason for this 0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:56.520 is is that I think a lot of people seem 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:57.920 to be wanting to throw the baby out with the 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:01.720 bathwater when it comes to tech. I certainly understand why. Technically, 0:16:01.760 --> 0:16:04.960 some of these technology stocks that megacap names, um, you know, 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:07.840 without that kind of you know, with the vaccine and such, 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:10.320 we're not saying, well, Jesus, lockdown, stay at home is 0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:12.480 gonna stay, is gonna stay with us for a long time. 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:14.800 So I'm not gonna be willing to pay the huge 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:18.080 valuations for these megacap names. But boy, the some of 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:20.840 the you know, especially the chip stocks, they act very 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.440 very well, making new highs. You have other stocks away 0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:25.960 from a check to sorry the chip names, like a 0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:30.000 Cgate Technologies, Western Digital, things like that. So my point 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:32.720 is tech is not dead by any minute, specially the imagination. 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:35.920 So do some rotating into value, but also do some 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.960 rotating within technology. I think that will bode well as 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:42.080 we go into into next year. Um, you know, I'll 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:45.000 bring up the dreaded E word energy. We've got w 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:48.560 t I credit forty five dollars a barrel um. One 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:51.840 could argue that if the economy is primed to open 0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:54.720 up on a global scale sometime mid next year, as 0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:58.280 these vaccines become more widely available, that perhaps that bodes 0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:00.760 well for the energy infrastructure, and it's certainly been beaten 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:03.160 down over the last several years. Is that a sector 0:17:03.280 --> 0:17:07.040 you have some courage for I do? I mean, obviously 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:09.680 it's had a huge run here over the last you 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:12.639 know to really two months now, uh, particularly in the 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:15.199 last month, but also really for two months. And the 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:17.919 x l E which is the energy E t F, 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:20.359 and of course the XOP which also includes some of 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:26.399 the uh uh sorry uh drilling names. But the point 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:28.800 is that they are overbought. They could pull back a 0:17:28.840 --> 0:17:31.560 little bit over a near term, but they're also still 0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:34.920 very cheap. And you think about rotation, I mean, people 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:37.880 are gonna need is if this group moves up, especially 0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:41.399 institutional players, they're gonna they they are so underweight this 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:44.200 group as it rallies, especially into the new year, if 0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:47.040 they're very underweighted, they're gonna have to rewait their their 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:50.520 their holdings. But more importantly, on a fundamental basis, the 0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:53.240 last time oil UH, the the x l E, and 0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:55.679 the x OP we're trading at these levels. Oil was 0:17:55.800 --> 0:17:58.640 at thirty two dollars. Now it's at forty five, even 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:00.760 if it comes in a little bit still chief to 0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:04.199 their underlying UH commodity. So I think this is a 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:09.679 group that on both a rewaiting play UH and on 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:11.760 a fundamental basis, is going to do a lot better 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:14.080 than a lot of people think. And if oil can 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:16.080 hold up in the mid forties, it doesn't have to 0:18:16.080 --> 0:18:17.879 take off, but it holds up in the in the 0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:20.560 mid forties, and especially if it rallies more, it's really 0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:23.480 gonna move because the institutions have to pile into the group. 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:25.760 So I'm a lot more bullish on this group than 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:27.119 a lot of other people who need to be careful 0:18:27.160 --> 0:18:29.080 and not saying jump in like you went to tech group. 0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:31.680 But it's it's a nice play. You have just about 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:36.320 thirty seconds Banks, Big Banks here again another unloved group. 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:37.720 Is it time to take a look at them on 0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:41.080 in the anticipation of a better one. Well, it's, you know, 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:43.240 again the very cheap group. So it's I think it's 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:45.040 a good play that the key is what's going to 0:18:45.080 --> 0:18:47.800 happen in interest rates. To me, to be honest with you, 0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:50.000 for short term traders, I think this thing can to 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:52.119 continue to rally because I think rates will hold up 0:18:52.280 --> 0:18:54.280 and I think the YO curve will continue to steep in. 0:18:54.680 --> 0:18:56.399 But as we move in the next year and we 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:58.399 get to some of the I think we get a 0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:00.840 little bit less stimulant send a lot of people are 0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:04.000 hoping for from both the Fed and the and the Congress. 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:06.400 UH that will cause those banks to take a little 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:08.520 bit of hiccup. So long term players that want to 0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:10.199 be a little careful short term traders, I think you 0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:12.080 can ride the way for for a couple more months. 0:19:12.760 --> 0:19:14.440 Matt Manley, thank you so much for joining us. Really 0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:17.280 appreciate it. Matt Mailey, chief market strategist at Miller Tabeck 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:23.240 and founder of the Mainly Report. There's time for Bloomberg Opinion. 0:19:23.240 --> 0:19:26.680 We're joined today by Chris Hughes, Deals columnists for Bloomberg 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:28.960 Opinion and what deal you may ask, Well, it is 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:32.080 merger Monday, and we've got a big one. SMP Global, 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:35.159 the data company buying another data company I h S 0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:38.400 Market for about thirty nine billion dollars in Chris, Thanks 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.320 so much for joining us here. This is a big deal. 0:19:40.760 --> 0:19:43.760 Tell us about this deal. What's kind of the strategy 0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:47.119 be putting these two big global data players together? And 0:19:47.160 --> 0:19:49.600 I should note before you go on that Bloomberg LP 0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:54.320 does compete both against SMP UH and I h S market. So, Chris, 0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:56.720 what do you think is real drivers behind this this deal? 0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:00.520 I think it's it's for two or three things. I mean, 0:20:00.560 --> 0:20:04.800 one is that this industry is consolidating. We've already seen 0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:10.240 some quite interesting combinations already, So think about the combination 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:16.320 of London Stock Exchange UH and Refinitive UH and UM. 0:20:16.960 --> 0:20:19.240 So there have been deals happening already, so that the 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:22.320 trend is towards insolidation. And then if you think about 0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:27.040 what this combination does, it brings together the SMP brand 0:20:27.119 --> 0:20:33.200 which is very strong, with I h S is other 0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:37.240 data services. So you end up with a combination which 0:20:37.240 --> 0:20:43.040 has got more offer, more to offer and to more customers, 0:20:43.080 --> 0:20:46.440 so you can cross fairly offering between the two customer 0:20:46.520 --> 0:20:50.760 bases UM and with that scale you've become a much 0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:53.280 stronger company, and then presumingly you can do more deals 0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:56.240 after that. It's interesting, you know, I've when I was 0:20:56.240 --> 0:20:58.040 a research channel. So I spent some time looking at 0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:01.280 this industry and for a long time, uh, it was 0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:04.919 a very sleepy industry. Investors didn't pay much attention to it. 0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:07.720 There wasn't a lot of value assigned to it. But 0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:09.600 it just seems like in the last decade, as you mentioned, 0:21:09.600 --> 0:21:12.600 there's been a lot of consolidation. It's really taken off. 0:21:12.600 --> 0:21:15.919 And the valuations we're seeing here just extraordinary. What are 0:21:15.960 --> 0:21:18.840 some of the new businesses that these companies are generating 0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:21.960 off of their UM this this data that they have 0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:24.159 in the analytics that they have and Y scale might 0:21:24.160 --> 0:21:29.000