1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: Live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 2: Or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:16,080 Speaker 3: Learning through some of the moves we're seen in the 6 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,919 Speaker 3: oil market, a market which is paying very close attention 7 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:22,040 Speaker 3: to each and every development in the Middle East, and 8 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:24,279 Speaker 3: there has been a number of them this week. The 9 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 3: US Secretary of State, Anthony Blincoln is actually heading on 10 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 3: another trip to the region now, after a string of 11 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 3: developments in recent days. First you had Iron moving of 12 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 3: warship into the Red Sea. Then you had Israel striking 13 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 3: Commas targets in Beirut on Lebanese soil for the first 14 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 3: time since two thousand and six yesterday, to bomb blasts 15 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 3: in Iran that killed nearly one hundred people that Islamic 16 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:51,840 Speaker 3: State today has claimed credit for. And also today drone 17 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 3: attacks in Iraq that Iraq is blaming on US lead 18 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 3: forces that killed at least two members of an Iranian 19 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 3: backed militia. All of this together is adding up to 20 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 3: concerns growing about regional conflict in the Middle East. So 21 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 3: just how dangerous is this moment we are in right now, 22 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 3: Let's get an experts opinion on what exactly is happening here. 23 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 3: Joining me now is Michael Knights. He is a fellow 24 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 3: at the Washington Institute specializing in military and security affairs 25 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 3: of Iraq, Iran, and the Gulf States. He's also co 26 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 3: founder of the Militious Spotlight platform, which offers in depth 27 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 3: analysis of developments related to Iranian backed militias in Iraq 28 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 3: and Syria. So, Michael, you are clearly the perfect person 29 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 3: to speak with today. You could look at each of 30 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 3: the events this week and understand why there may be 31 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:41,199 Speaker 3: growing fear out there that this is developing into something 32 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 3: much greater than it is at the moment. What is 33 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 3: your read on this situation? 34 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 4: Well, often, you know, we're tempted to try and link 35 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 4: everything together, but in this case, it's in many ways, 36 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 4: a lot of things happening at about the same time. Yeah, 37 00:01:56,880 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 4: they're broadly connected. But you know, so when we see 38 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 4: the Islamic State blowing up a you know, a funeral 39 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 4: commemoration in Iran, they're doing it opportunistically because a lot 40 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 4: of attention is on Iran at that exact moment, because 41 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:16,959 Speaker 4: it's the fourth anniversary of the day when the US 42 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 4: killed the two most senior Iran backed militia leaders in 43 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 4: the Middle East back in twenty twenty. So that was opportunistic. 44 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 4: But what we just did in Baghdad, where the US 45 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 4: probably killed two militia leaders just a day after the 46 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 4: celebration of those you know, those killings in twenty twenty, 47 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 4: it also in Baghdad, you know, demonstrates the Biden administration's 48 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 4: risk tolerance is going up quite a bit. You know, 49 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 4: that was a pretty bold thing to do one day 50 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 4: after these militias were commemorating the loss of their key 51 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 4: leaders four years ago, to then do almost exactly the 52 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 4: same thing in Baghdad the day afterwards. 53 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 3: Okay, So if the US's risk tolerance is going up, 54 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 3: does that mean that there is a rising risk of 55 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 3: more direct confrontation with either Iran itself or these Iranian proxies. 56 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 4: Well, it shows the US's patients is wearing thin, and 57 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,079 Speaker 4: the Biden administration had a ton of patients, you know, 58 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 4: two years ago. But now after the Hoothi's in Yemen 59 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 4: have done so many attacks on shipping and generally been 60 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 4: a pain in so many ways, and now, the Iraqi 61 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 4: militias have been launching increasing numbers of attacks, over one 62 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 4: hundred and thirty against US forces since October seventeenth. You 63 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 4: can see the Biden administration is signaling we don't want 64 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 4: to have a broader conflict, but we're also not afraid 65 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 4: to begin moving in that direction. Just recently that killed 66 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 4: ten Hoothy boat crew who were trying to attack a 67 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 4: vessel in the Red Sea. So the Biden administration is 68 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 4: steadily moving up the ladder of escalation in an effort 69 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 4: to escalate, to de escalate, to show these actors we're 70 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 4: really serious. Now stop what you're doing in the Red 71 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,279 Speaker 4: Sea and in Iraq, and will stop. 72 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 5: Well. 73 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 3: In the US, together with about a dozen other countries, 74 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 3: yesterday issued a pretty cern warning to the Hoothies to 75 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,359 Speaker 3: stop their behavior in the Red Sea, talking about the 76 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 3: consequences for any malign actors. And we actually heard from 77 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 3: the commander of the US Naval Forces in the Middle 78 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 3: East today that said, there is no sign that militants 79 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 3: are backing off. So how close are we to the 80 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 3: moment where the US decides outright offense here. 81 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:38,159 Speaker 4: Well, if the US does go in a more offensive way, 82 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 4: which is looking increasingly likely in the Red Sea against 83 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:45,039 Speaker 4: the Hoothies in particular, it'll probably be a disarming strike, 84 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 4: and that means something that takes away the things the 85 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 4: Hoothies used to actually attack shipping in the Red Sea, 86 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 4: So an attempt to do a sort of one and 87 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 4: done destruction of anti shipping missiles and fast attack boats 88 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 4: and helicopters that opposing the real risk to Red Sea shipping. 89 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 4: Without those things, you know, the Houthees don't have so 90 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 4: much ability to threaten the shipping. 91 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 3: Well, as we talk about trying to take out their infrastructure. 92 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,679 Speaker 3: Isn't that what Saudi Arabia tried to do for years, 93 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 3: arguably without much success. Could there be more success this 94 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 3: time around. 95 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a good point. The fact is the Hoo 96 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 4: the Thees have, well, the US has a lot better 97 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 4: capability to do this than the Saudias did, and the 98 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 4: Saudis were not really focused on the Hoo They's anti 99 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 4: shipping capabilities. They were focused on trying to kill the 100 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 4: Hoothy leaders within the cities, which was disastrous in terms 101 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,840 Speaker 4: of collateral damage. If the US does a lot more 102 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 4: focused operation against things that can quite easily find like boats, 103 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 4: helicopters and anti shipping results, it can probably have a 104 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 4: significantly higher level of success than the Saudias did. 105 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,720 Speaker 3: So as we talk about the US and administration stance here, 106 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 3: as mentioned, Secretary of State Anthony Blinkn is now heading 107 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 3: back to the Middle East. He has made a number 108 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:07,719 Speaker 3: of trips to this region, six since October seventh, the 109 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 3: initial attack on Israel by Hamas. How much leverage does 110 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 3: the US realistically have to shape this scenario, not just militarily, 111 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 3: but diplomatically as well well. 112 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 4: The US always has enormous leverage as long as it 113 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 4: uses it. And you know now that the US is 114 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 4: undertaking kinetic strike operations in both the Red Sea and 115 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 4: Iraq Syria. It's opened up one part of its toolkit 116 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 4: and that is having some effect on the bad guys, 117 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 4: particularly in Iraq, where most of the militias have been 118 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 4: quite careful around the US not to actually kill any Americans. 119 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 4: This one militia that was particularly aggressive, Njaba, is the 120 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 4: one that got hit today, So we'll see how they 121 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 4: react to that. But then the broader toolkit, I mean, 122 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 4: the US when it comes to sanctions, access to the 123 00:06:56,080 --> 00:07:00,279 Speaker 4: International Financial Institution's use of the dollar still has a 124 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 4: tremendous amount of leverage. 125 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 3: What about leverage over Israel specifically, That's a question I've 126 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 3: come back to often over the course of the last 127 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 3: two months. Is increasingly the Biden administration is encouraging Israel 128 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 3: to move into a new phase of this war, to 129 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 3: be more mindful of the civilian casualties in Gaza as 130 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 3: they go after Hamas. Are we starting to see signs 131 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 3: that that messaging toward Israel is actually working when Israel 132 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 3: makes announcements like they're pulling some troops out of Gaza. 133 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 4: I think the Israelis themselves understand that their operation ground 134 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 4: operation in Gaza is only going to last another two 135 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 4: to five weeks perhaps, and the Bide administration has given 136 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 4: them as much time as they need to get it done. 137 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 4: And even though they've had to say some things about 138 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 4: restraining the scale or the destructiveness of operations, the Biden 139 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 4: administration has not really taken any steps to actively change 140 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 4: the way the Israelis are OpEd. There's a bit of 141 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 4: an understanding and the Biden administration that you cannot let 142 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 4: Hamas come away from this jump out of the rubble 143 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 4: and claim a win. You have to have decisive effect 144 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 4: on her mass and as a result, the US has 145 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 4: basically provided these roads with very strong support. I think 146 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 4: if the Israelis are ramping down their operations in Gaza, 147 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 4: that's because they are reaching the goals. The end line, 148 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 4: finish line is in sight for them. 149 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 3: Okay, So let's expand on that point. You just gave 150 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 3: a timeline of two to five weeks when we've heard 151 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:37,679 Speaker 3: from Israeli officials the idea that this warker could go 152 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 3: on for the entirety of this year. So if we 153 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 3: do in the two to five week period from here 154 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 3: see Israel pull out of Gaza, does that mean this 155 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 3: conflict is over and it's in its most immediate stage 156 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 3: or what happens next? 157 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 2: Yeah. 158 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 4: I mean for any investors out in the international community, 159 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 4: what you want to see is this conflict end in 160 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,199 Speaker 4: some way everyone can recognize, because that's probably when the 161 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 4: who they stop attacking ships, and that's when all the 162 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 4: militias stop foreign rockets at the US and the general 163 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 4: war risk declines. So you know, when I say two 164 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 4: to five weeks, I mean the Israeli intensive clearance operations 165 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 4: on the ground where they're taking new territory. It's probably 166 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 4: going to end within that period. That's then when we 167 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 4: move to what we call Phase three, which is where 168 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 4: the Israelis are just doing targeted strikes or raids into 169 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 4: essentially the refugee camps, the remaining areas they don't control. 170 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 4: I don't think the Israelis are going to actually withdraw 171 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 4: from areas of Gaza at all. Everything they've got they're 172 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 4: going to hold onto for a while as they clear 173 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 4: the underground tunnels and remove weapons and other things from 174 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 4: the area. 175 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 3: Well, this is kind of that next day question, right, Okay, 176 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 3: we get to the end of this war, and then 177 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 3: what does Israel and Palestine look like in the immediate 178 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 3: aftermath of that? From your point of view, is there 179 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 3: any real chance of a two state solution here at all? 180 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 3: In this generation? 181 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 4: There'll certainly be a lot of people pushing for that. 182 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 4: They'll say, after this Gaza war, we need to prevent 183 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 4: another one from happening in the future. This is the 184 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 4: perfect time to think about an end state. What we'll 185 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 4: probably find is that Israeli Prime Minister benj net Yahoo, 186 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 4: in an effort to sort of create the next stage 187 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 4: of his political career, may well emerge as an opponent 188 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 4: to the two state solution, and there'll be a lot 189 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 4: of Israelis that don't have the level of trust required 190 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 4: to give the Palestinians a state of their own. So 191 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 4: there's going to be a big debate within Israel, and 192 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 4: it's going to be very heavily pressurized by the international community, 193 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 4: particularly the US, in favor of a two state solution. 194 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 4: There are plenty of Israelis who probably want to see 195 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:49,199 Speaker 4: the end of this conflict as long as they can 196 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 4: be a short of minimum level of security. 197 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 3: Well, and of course the US isn't really the only 198 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 3: force or factor in this as well. Yes, the US 199 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 3: has been very explicitly expressed its support for Israel continues 200 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 3: to send weapons as well. But when we think about 201 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:07,840 Speaker 3: the US as more role more widely in everything that 202 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 3: we're seeing in the Middle East, a lot of this 203 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 3: is coalition efforts, be it the Maritime Task Force or 204 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 3: other situations where Arab allies have to be considered in 205 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:19,440 Speaker 3: the way the US moves forward. So how should we 206 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 3: be thinking about these other actors here? 207 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 4: Well, Look, you know, generally speaking, the US is still 208 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 4: the hull, and it's still the glue that holds these 209 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 4: things together. And without the US, there is no coalition 210 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 4: of any kind, typically both because of political convening power, 211 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 4: because of pure military capability and breadth of relations. But 212 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 4: you know, what we're interested in to see particularly is 213 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 4: how the Golf States integrate themselves with any of these efforts. 214 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:51,439 Speaker 4: You know, the Gold States have got the money to 215 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 4: rebuild Gaza, and perhaps to rebuild it in a way 216 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 4: that Hamas doesn't come back into the picture. The Gold 217 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:00,680 Speaker 4: States have also got a strong incentives bill to work 218 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 4: with Israel or normalization and to create these kind of 219 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 4: infrastructure and energy corridors that could run between the Indian 220 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:12,560 Speaker 4: Ocean and the Mediterranean, and also a lot of defense 221 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 4: integration between these places, the Gold States and Israel. Those 222 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,680 Speaker 4: things probably haven't been ruined by the gods of war. 223 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 4: And so what we're really watching is how Saudi Arabia 224 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 4: the UAE act in the middle of this year, when 225 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 4: we move past the main combat operations of the Gods 226 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 4: of war and we move into the sort of stabilization 227 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 4: and rebuilding phase. A lot of people are going to 228 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 4: be keeping their eyes on. 229 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 3: That absolutely, And I think something else that already what 230 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 3: people were keeping their eyes on is Iran, specifically in 231 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 3: US policy toward Iran. Just a final note here, Michael, 232 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 3: when you are seeing Iranian proxies acting against or putting 233 00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 3: US forces potentially in harm's way of ramping up not 234 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 3: just necessarily of proxy activity, but something like Iran sending 235 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 3: a warship into the Red Sea, how does this change 236 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 3: policy toward Iran moving forward? Even if the conflict between 237 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 3: Israel and Hamas eventually comes to an end. 238 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 4: Well, one warship from the Iranians is not too much 239 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 4: of a trouble a worry. That's just, you know, a 240 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 4: reef that hasn't been sunk yet. Realistically, if they ever 241 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 4: come toe to toe, you know it'll be very quick 242 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 4: and simple probably. But you know, when we look a 243 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:34,960 Speaker 4: little bit further out, you know, ultimately the US and 244 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 4: Iran are not on the right track. Three years ago, 245 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 4: you would have said there's a chance we could move 246 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 4: to a nuclear deal to longest, longer term SANCTU relief. 247 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 4: No one could look at the situation now and say 248 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 4: that's going to happen. Whether it's a republican government in 249 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:53,079 Speaker 4: the US in twenty twenty five or a Democrat, you 250 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 4: don't have that same feeling that a deal is possible 251 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 4: you instead of a feeling that Iran and its proxies 252 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 4: have to be contained all across the region or they'll 253 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 4: do more things like October seventh, or what the hoo 254 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 4: things are doing in resity or indeed nuclear bright. 255 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 3: Now all right, Michael, we have to leave it there, 256 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 3: but great to get your insight on the matters in 257 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 3: the Middle East. That is Michael Knights, a fellow at 258 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 3: the Washington Institute. And we'll have more on domestic affairs 259 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 3: coming up with our political panel. This is Bloomberg. 260 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 261 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 262 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the. 263 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business App. 264 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 265 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. 266 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg. 267 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 3: Eleven thirty, Iowa is in the news for a much 268 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 3: more somber reason. A school shooting today at Perry High School, 269 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 3: about twenty five miles outside Des Moines. There is a 270 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 3: lot that we don't know at this point, but according 271 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 3: to reports that site law enforcement officials, this is expected. 272 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 3: Shooter did die from a self inflicted gunshot wound and 273 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 3: multiple others were injured. It was the first day of 274 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 3: the semester at Perry High School after their winter break, 275 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 3: and of course it comes just days ahead of those 276 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 3: all important Iowa caucuses. So on that note, we bring 277 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 3: back Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzy know Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, again, 278 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 3: we don't know all of the details about today's event, 279 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 3: but we do know that events like this have the 280 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 3: power to shake communities, and it is these very same 281 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 3: communities that are getting ready to make a selection on 282 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 3: who they would like to be president. How does this 283 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 3: affect the mind of a caucus goer. 284 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, first, I'd like to say, you know, we pray 285 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 6: for the families and the individuals affected by this tragedy. 286 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 6: It's just one more example of the fact that our 287 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 6: school system, you know, is still a threat to our 288 00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 6: children and our administrators and parents. So, you know, we 289 00:15:56,160 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 6: hope the families the best look. I mean, this kind 290 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 6: of wrinkle, this kind of impact, this kind of an 291 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 6: event that happens as close to the caucuses, we'll certainly 292 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 6: have an impact on the caucus goers. You know, these 293 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 6: are people who are very attuned to the issues of 294 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 6: their state. Many of them are very active in politics, 295 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 6: hold public office in the You know, maybe two hundred 296 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 6: thousand people who show up on caucus night are going 297 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 6: to be impacted by this. How that's a big question one. 298 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 6: How do the candidates respond to this. We've started seeing 299 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 6: candidates responding to it already, and they'll take that into 300 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 6: consideration as so whether they think it's appropriate or whether they 301 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 6: have answers that makes sense to them as people who 302 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 6: are going to be casting a ballot in just the 303 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 6: next few weeks. But for sure, something like this will 304 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 6: have an impact, and I think it's too early to 305 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 6: tell how well. 306 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 3: Ricky mentioned that we have seen some candidates respond the 307 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 3: viag Ramaswami was actually in Perry, Iowa this morning. He 308 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 3: posted on x that he had canceled his event. He 309 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:06,159 Speaker 3: converted it to a prayer and conversation. He described it 310 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 3: as a psychological sickness at the core of the country 311 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 3: right now. And meanwhile, Ron DeSantis sat down in an 312 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,960 Speaker 3: interview with NBC after this shooting, said it's more of 313 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 3: a local and state issue. So, Genie, while you of 314 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,199 Speaker 3: course get the thoughts and prayers as you often do, 315 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:25,919 Speaker 3: it doesn't necessarily seem like it changes any minds on 316 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 3: positions on gun policy. 317 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 7: That's right, and you know you hope, I hope it 318 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 7: changes the minds of some people who are going to 319 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 7: support some of these candidates. I mean, we have at 320 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 7: the top of the ticket in Iowa, as you mentioned 321 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 7: Kaylee eleven days away, Donald Trump, who describes himself as 322 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 7: the most pro gun, pro Second Amendment president that we've 323 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 7: ever had. You have the vag Ramaswami in Perry. This 324 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:55,879 Speaker 7: is somebody who did not want to take guns away 325 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,919 Speaker 7: from convicted felons. You have run the Santis who signed 326 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 7: legislation in April for a permitless carry in Florida. You 327 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 7: assume if he's elected president, he would be interested in 328 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 7: doing the same nationally. This is what these people are 329 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 7: talking about. And you contrast that with President Biden, who 330 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 7: Monday is going to be going down South and speaking 331 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 7: at the place, the church where the shooting, horrific shooting 332 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 7: occurred several years ago, and talking about what he has 333 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 7: been talking about for a long time, which is the 334 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 7: need for serious and meaningful gun control in this country. 335 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 7: We got a little taste of that after the horrific 336 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 7: shooting in Texas. But we have not seen a concerted 337 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 7: effort by the National Legislature Congress to act. And we 338 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 7: just finished a year six hundred and fifty mass shootings 339 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 7: in the country. That's more than days in the year, 340 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 7: according to the Gun Violence Archive, six hundred and fifty 341 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:01,680 Speaker 7: shootings in this country, and we start the year yet 342 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 7: again at a school. It's devastating and it's hypocritical to 343 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 7: hear some of these statements coming out from these candidates 344 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:09,480 Speaker 7: who are going around Iowa today. 345 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 3: Well, two of the candidates, Rick Ron Dea Santis, who 346 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 3: I just mentioned, and also Nicki Haley, will be appearing 347 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,639 Speaker 3: in back to back town halls on CNN this evening. 348 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,439 Speaker 3: If you were part of these campaigns, if you were 349 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 3: advising them, how would you be telling them to approach 350 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 3: this issue tonight? 351 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 6: Well, I think for Nicki Haley, she has some unique 352 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 6: experience in that she was governor when the horrific church 353 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 6: shooting in Charleston, South Carolina, heard spent an enormous amount 354 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:41,199 Speaker 6: of time dealing with issues of grief and healing related 355 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 6: to that. She can tap into that experience and could 356 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 6: be a very effective and articulate voice in the aftermath 357 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:55,679 Speaker 6: of this shooting, if Ron de Santis continues to mimic 358 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 6: the line that he did today, which in immediate after 359 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 6: math of this year, that the federal government really doesn't 360 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:05,439 Speaker 6: have any business being in the situation keeping your children 361 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:07,720 Speaker 6: safe in schools, and that states are the ones who 362 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 6: have to do it. I just don't see anybody getting 363 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 6: excited about that solution, right. It seems to me that 364 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 6: he's running for president, he wants to have his hand 365 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:18,719 Speaker 6: on the till till her to make sure that our 366 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 6: country hits in the right direction. And as Janie very 367 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 6: aptly pointed out, there's an epidemic of these shootings across America, 368 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 6: and the federal response is important. 369 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 3: And finally, Genie, as we reflect on really just the 370 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 3: horrifying statistics looking ahead tonight, how important is this town 371 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 3: hall to Nikki Haley, who is trying to cement herself 372 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:46,160 Speaker 3: really as the alternative to Donald Trump, knowing the misstaps 373 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 3: she has had in recent weeks on the question of 374 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 3: slavery in the Civil War. 375 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,879 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think it's really important, you know, and I 376 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:57,479 Speaker 7: wish she had Rick or somebody like him on her side, 377 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 7: because you know, she has gotten tripped. You mentioned the 378 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:04,120 Speaker 7: Civil War a few days ago. Issue. I wonder if 379 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 7: she's going to get tripped up on this issue of 380 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 7: gun control, because, to Chris Christie's point, this is somebody 381 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:12,919 Speaker 7: who seems to want to be all things to all people. 382 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,360 Speaker 7: She describes herself as really pro Second Amendment despite all 383 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 7: the experiences she had as governor. So I think this 384 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,880 Speaker 7: question about what you do about violence in our schools, 385 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 7: which is at epidemic proportions, is when she's going to 386 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 7: have to answer, and how would you curb this and 387 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,879 Speaker 7: address this? She can answer it, I think she's going 388 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,920 Speaker 7: to be very scared about sending people on the far right. 389 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:40,480 Speaker 7: So we'll have to see if she becomes what Desanta's 390 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 7: described as nicky. 391 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 392 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 393 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App. 394 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 2: We're listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 395 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 3: I'm here in Washington. My Dorning, who helps lead our 396 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:04,920 Speaker 3: congressional coverage, is here in Washington, but most of Congress 397 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,640 Speaker 3: is not yet back in Washington. They come back next 398 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 3: week Monday or Tuesday, depending on if if you're the 399 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 3: Senate or the House. But that's not to say they 400 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 3: haven't been on the move. In fact, there were over 401 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 3: roughly sixty Republican lawmakers and equal past Texas yesterday on 402 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:23,120 Speaker 3: a trip to the border led by House Speaker Mike Johnson. 403 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,360 Speaker 3: Border security one of the issues that Congress is going 404 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 3: to be trying to grapple with when they finally make 405 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 3: their return for the new year. So joining us now 406 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,640 Speaker 3: with more on this is Mike Dorning. As I said, 407 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 3: he's here in Washington with me in studio. In fact, 408 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 3: so Mike, obviously they made a lot of noise at 409 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,359 Speaker 3: the border yesterday. Does that actually translate to higher odds 410 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 3: of legislative policy happening when they get back. 411 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,920 Speaker 8: What it translates into is more and more of what's 412 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 8: going on in Congress starting to get wrapped up into 413 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 8: this immigration fight. Even before we went away for the holidays, 414 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 8: the Ukraine aid and to Israel was wrapped up in 415 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 8: the immigration fight. It looks like it's getting more likely 416 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,679 Speaker 8: that even the government shut down now maybe wrapped up 417 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 8: in the immigration fight. Whether it winds up that way 418 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 8: in the end or not not clear, but at least 419 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 8: in the early stages. They're looking to add this to 420 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 8: that shutdown fight. 421 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:23,919 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm glad you brought that up, because there was 422 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 3: a bunch of Freedom Colocus members, Bob good who of 423 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 3: course leads it now, Eli Crane, Andy Biggs, Matt Gates too, 424 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 3: all said yesterday while they were an eagle pass, shut 425 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 3: down the border or we shut down the government. That's 426 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 3: just a handful of members, though that's not necessarily the 427 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,400 Speaker 3: message we got from Speaker Johnson himself. 428 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:45,639 Speaker 8: Yeah, so I don't think that Speaker Johnson or the 429 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 8: sort of center of gravity in the Republican Party is 430 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:54,639 Speaker 8: to totally shut down the border. But they want to 431 00:23:54,680 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 8: further restrict and particularly stop some of this migration that's 432 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 8: coming into the United States through the southern border, and 433 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:08,520 Speaker 8: they see that, you know, rightly, as a big campaign 434 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,879 Speaker 8: issue this year, when in our polling we're seeing that 435 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 8: as the second most important issue to voters after of 436 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,679 Speaker 8: course the economy. But the economy looks like it's starting 437 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 8: to get better. Consumer sentiment is improving, inflation is going down, 438 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 8: so you can see looking ahead in the election year, 439 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,119 Speaker 8: the economy might be a little less of a worry 440 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 8: to voters. But on immigration, that's a concern. That's a 441 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,679 Speaker 8: concern where a lot of voters are closer to the 442 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 8: Republican party at the moment than the Democratic position on this, 443 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 8: So they want to ramp that up as something that's 444 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 8: front and center in the debate. 445 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,439 Speaker 3: But Democrats are willing, it seems largely to make a 446 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 3: deal of some kind when it comes to the border, 447 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,640 Speaker 3: knowing that it is a political headache for them and 448 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,239 Speaker 3: that there is a crisis there, and everybody seems to 449 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,159 Speaker 3: be on the same page about that. Where in the 450 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 3: Van diagram is the policy that Democrats can agree to 451 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 3: that will be signed into law by a Democratic president 452 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 3: and what the House will pass because they still keep 453 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 3: saying it's Hr two HR two and we know that 454 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,199 Speaker 3: was dead on arrival as soon as they passed it 455 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:16,160 Speaker 3: in the first place. 456 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:23,919 Speaker 8: So in the Senate, the Democrats and Kristen Cinema, the Independent, 457 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 8: and some Republican negotiators are centering are sort of circling 458 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:34,640 Speaker 8: around a potential deal that includes some limits on asylum 459 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,320 Speaker 8: and a few other restrictions. There have been a lot 460 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 8: more migrants coming in that have been claiming asylum, and 461 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:49,120 Speaker 8: that is a big increase from prior years, So there's 462 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:54,520 Speaker 8: a potential deal, at least from the Senate standpoint, around 463 00:25:54,560 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 8: asylum and a few other concrete issues that may or 464 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 8: may not be acceptable to the House. Some people in 465 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 8: the center of the Republican Party that are more obviously 466 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,320 Speaker 8: anti immigration than the Democratic Party want to also address 467 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,920 Speaker 8: something called parole authority that the president has, which is basically, 468 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 8: the president has authority to let people stay in the 469 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:26,399 Speaker 8: United States, you know, regardless of the law. Almost and 470 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:32,639 Speaker 8: president have used this authority for refugees, for other specific measures, 471 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 8: and that's something that a lot of Democrats are leery 472 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 8: of giving up because it's a key presidential power. So 473 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 8: that's something that where you could see it might go 474 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,159 Speaker 8: either way that there might be some restriction on that 475 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 8: or not. The HR two sort of more sort of 476 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 8: ardent Republicans they want to do like they want to 477 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 8: build that border wall that Trump was promising, they want 478 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 8: to make other more extreme changes there, and so you 479 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 8: could see that's an unlikely to reach a deal, But 480 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 8: you could see a deal that starts with something that 481 00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:12,720 Speaker 8: the Senate Democrats and Republicans can agree on, and then 482 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 8: maybe when it goes over to the House it gets 483 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:18,359 Speaker 8: a little bit more robust from the Republican standpoint. 484 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,440 Speaker 3: All right, Mike Dorning, who helps lead Bloomberg's congressional coverage, 485 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 3: thank you so much. So let's go now to someone 486 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,639 Speaker 3: who used to sit in the very same house to 487 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 3: which we are referring. Former Congressman Denver Rickleman of Virginia 488 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 3: is joining me now. Congressman, thanks so much for coming 489 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 3: on the program. What do you think the real prospects 490 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,439 Speaker 3: are here of this House of Representatives agreeing with the 491 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,840 Speaker 3: White House and a Democratic controlled Senate on border security. 492 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:44,919 Speaker 9: Well, with the amount of fingerpointing, I think it's going 493 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:46,639 Speaker 9: to be very difficult in the short term. You know, 494 00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 9: I've been there, as you know, I'm very familiar with 495 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 9: the Freedom Caucus. And the issue that you have really 496 00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 9: is that you have people trying to use i think today, 497 00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 9: trying to solve problems today right with yesterday's technology and 498 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 9: yesterday's thought process. And I think the real issue that 499 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,240 Speaker 9: we have right now is going to be very difficult 500 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,719 Speaker 9: for the Republicans who support HR two to actually come 501 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 9: in and say, hey, we want to do this right now, 502 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 9: right We're willing to make a deal, because all you 503 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,400 Speaker 9: do is look at their districts. If their PBI, their 504 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,639 Speaker 9: political voting indexes R plus eight or larger, it's going 505 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 9: to be really hard to make a deal, especially in 506 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,639 Speaker 9: the election season that's coming up right now. So I 507 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 9: think it's a I think it's all. It's a long haul. 508 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 9: I just I think it's a real long haul. But 509 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 9: the issue that you have right now, the pressure is this, 510 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 9: there are issues at the border, let's be honest, and 511 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 9: I do think the American public is starting to get 512 00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,400 Speaker 9: fed up with it, so that might put a little 513 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,359 Speaker 9: bit of pressure on modern Democrats to try to come 514 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:36,879 Speaker 9: to the table. 515 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,760 Speaker 3: What about if that pressure comes in the form of 516 00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 3: threatening a government shutdown if there is no deal on 517 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 3: the border. Should these two things be tied together? 518 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,080 Speaker 9: Well, the Freedom Caucus is going to go hyperpolic you know, 519 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 9: that's their mo I don't think they should be tied 520 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 9: together at all. And that's just, you know, that's sort 521 00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 9: of political hostage taking, you know, by the Freedom Caucus 522 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 9: or what they want to do. Should not tie that 523 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:02,960 Speaker 9: to shutting down the government. I mean, that's a lot worse, 524 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 9: right as funding for the border actually is affected by 525 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 9: a government shutdown. I know, I'm stating the obvious, but 526 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 9: you do need adults in a room, and right now, 527 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 9: the Freedom Caucus are not the adults in a room. 528 00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 9: It's gonna be those in the middle. It's gonna be 529 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 9: you know, I would say center right Republicans, what's left 530 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 9: of them modern Democrats, they're the people that they are 531 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:22,920 Speaker 9: adults in the room. It's not the Freedom Caucus. And 532 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,040 Speaker 9: to link that is really irresponsible. 533 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 3: Would you describe Sir Speaker Johnson as an adult in 534 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:31,960 Speaker 3: the room. 535 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 9: Not from what I saw with his press conference. Now, 536 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 9: you know, it's almost like there's no wiggle room for 537 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,240 Speaker 9: any type of negotiation based on how they have to be. 538 00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 9: And I know that, right that's the messaging that you're 539 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 9: doing for your district. You know, Speaker Johnson just isn't 540 00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 9: messaging for his district. He's messaging is the speaker now, 541 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 9: so he has to protect those people in those R 542 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 9: plus eight you know, over districts. But right now, I 543 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 9: just don't think he really is serious enough. I don't 544 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 9: think he has a gravitas or he has the ability 545 00:29:58,080 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 9: to control the far right. I mean, you already saw 546 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 9: Bannon coming out, another far right sort of mouth breathers 547 00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 9: already coming out and saying, you know that he's not 548 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 9: living up to the standard that they need on the 549 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 9: far right or as conservatives, or whatever that definition is today. 550 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 9: So I think he's going to have a real tough time. 551 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:14,520 Speaker 9: I just don't think he has the gravitas to really 552 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,120 Speaker 9: pull it off unless you got some more sane people 553 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:18,640 Speaker 9: that get to in here. Again, we need adults in 554 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 9: the room here at this point. 555 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 3: Okay, So you don't think Speaker Johnson necessarily will remain 556 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 3: Speaker Johnson at the end of these fights, knowing how 557 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 3: things went with Kevin McCarthy, who. 558 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:32,880 Speaker 9: Knows, you know, trying to predict Congress is very difficult. 559 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 9: As somebody who was there, I remember when I was 560 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 9: in intelligence training, I had a mentor tell me, like, 561 00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 9: the only way you can tell the future is after 562 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 9: it happens. But I do think he's starting to get 563 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,640 Speaker 9: exceptional pressure from the far right. And I think that's 564 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 9: why you saw what he was doing. You talked about 565 00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 9: the economy earlier. I thought it was really prescient. I 566 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:51,240 Speaker 9: think it was a great point by you. I think 567 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,560 Speaker 9: with the economy actually starting to improve, they need another 568 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,720 Speaker 9: issue to splinter in twenty twenty four, and that's why 569 00:30:57,720 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 9: you saw that many people at the border. This was 570 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 9: a political well, this was just politics. This really had 571 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 9: nothing to do with actually getting anything done. This was 572 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,600 Speaker 9: just them fundraising and trying to get as many people 573 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:07,720 Speaker 9: on their size as account. 574 00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 4: Of the far right. 575 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 2: That's it. 576 00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,160 Speaker 3: Okay, So on the subject of politics, I wonder what 577 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,920 Speaker 3: role you think former President Trump plays in all of 578 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:19,040 Speaker 3: these conversations. Knowing that Speaker Johnson is a longtime supporter 579 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 3: of the former president, he already has endorsed him. Now 580 00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,040 Speaker 3: you have essentially endorsements clean sweeping all of the Republican 581 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,080 Speaker 3: leadership because Steve Scalize and Tom Emmer both through their 582 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 3: support behind the former president this week. How does he 583 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 3: factor in here into a calculus over something like potentially 584 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,520 Speaker 3: giving Biden a win on border security. 585 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 9: Trump is the elephant in the room. I mean not 586 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:48,560 Speaker 9: to do a horrible pun there, but really they're actually 587 00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,520 Speaker 9: found in the marching orders of Donald Trump. That's all 588 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,560 Speaker 9: they're doing. They were down there trying to impress their 589 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,800 Speaker 9: guy mar A Lago. You know, we have a real 590 00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,040 Speaker 9: issue on the border, We have real security concerns. Somebody 591 00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:00,560 Speaker 9: who did twenty years you know, Air Force contract NSA 592 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 9: offico secretary of Defense, somebody who's a counter terrorism expert, 593 00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 9: which I am, only owned data of targeting. I think 594 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,480 Speaker 9: it's ridiculous right that we have a Congress that can't 595 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 9: come together about border security in a sane and humane way. 596 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,480 Speaker 9: So Donald Trump is not sane or humane in any way. 597 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 9: So he is the one pushing the message here and 598 00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 9: Mike Johnson is just going to be a mouthpiece. And 599 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:20,640 Speaker 9: again it comes down to, you know, if he's just 600 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 9: sort of towing the Donald Trump line, he's not in 601 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,800 Speaker 9: a position to really make deals, have the gravitas, you know, 602 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:27,840 Speaker 9: or the capability to do that. I think that's what 603 00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,360 Speaker 9: should scare the American public is that you still want 604 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,160 Speaker 9: to have funding. You do not want to tie border 605 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 9: security to funding the government. I think that's an irresponsible move. 606 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:37,720 Speaker 9: It's not fair to all Americans, and it's not fair 607 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:39,080 Speaker 9: to cpp to. 608 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:39,680 Speaker 4: Be honest with you. 609 00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 3: Okay, so you mentioned the American public, which brings me 610 00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:47,880 Speaker 3: to another question that also pertains to your intelligence experience 611 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,680 Speaker 3: and the way that was used in assisting the work 612 00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,960 Speaker 3: of the January sixth Committee. Because Congressman, we are approaching 613 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 3: the third anniversary of January sixth, it's this weekend obviously 614 00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 3: we all know what happened on that day. That day 615 00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:05,280 Speaker 3: is the subject of many legal issues for the former president, 616 00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 3: but it hasn't necessarily seemed to resonate with his base 617 00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,400 Speaker 3: at all. It hasn't really changed any minds about him. 618 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:15,240 Speaker 3: Do you think that January sixth has potency still in 619 00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:16,680 Speaker 3: the American electorates view? 620 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,280 Speaker 9: Boy, that's a great question, because I think, you know, 621 00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 9: you always, you know, look at the three to five 622 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:25,840 Speaker 9: percent in the middle that you can sway one way 623 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,200 Speaker 9: or another. And I would like to think, I know, 624 00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,200 Speaker 9: hope is not a viable course of action. So I 625 00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,280 Speaker 9: hate to use the word hope, but I would like 626 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 9: to hope there's three to five percent that still think 627 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 9: about January sixth and saving democracy that are going to 628 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:41,040 Speaker 9: vote because democracy need to be saved. But when it 629 00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 9: comes to the base, I would say it's much more 630 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:44,720 Speaker 9: than thirty five percent. I know people like to throw 631 00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:46,960 Speaker 9: that number out, but even here in the fifth district 632 00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,120 Speaker 9: to Virginia, or even when you're looking what's going on 633 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,320 Speaker 9: right now, you're looking at this sort of the breathlessness 634 00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,800 Speaker 9: and the hyperbole that's coming out about January sixth, I mean, 635 00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,240 Speaker 9: you just have a new you know, specialist coming out 636 00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 9: from far right media on the truth of January sixth. 637 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 9: I just don't think it reverberates. 638 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:01,640 Speaker 5: I don't. 639 00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,400 Speaker 9: I think January six is actually a real rallying point 640 00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:07,320 Speaker 9: for most of Trump Trump supporters. I think they bought 641 00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:09,719 Speaker 9: into the stuff from the Tucker Carlsons and things like that. 642 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,320 Speaker 9: So I really think the myth and the conspiracy theories 643 00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 9: are something that's a real advantage for Donald Trump and 644 00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 9: the Republicans going into twenty twenty four. We just have 645 00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:19,279 Speaker 9: to look at we have to message to that three 646 00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:21,319 Speaker 9: to five percent in the middle, maybe a little bit more, 647 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,320 Speaker 9: that we do not want to repeat of January sixth, 648 00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:26,680 Speaker 9: or a president who would allow that type of nonsense 649 00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,840 Speaker 9: and criminal activity to happen. I mean, it's really that simple. 650 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,200 Speaker 9: You know, either you're on the side of democracy and 651 00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:34,200 Speaker 9: you believe that, you know, what happened on January sixth 652 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,239 Speaker 9: was heinous, or if you think it was just a 653 00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,239 Speaker 9: peaceful gathering gone bad. You know, really, you know, you 654 00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,840 Speaker 9: are already unreachable after three years. There's nobody going to 655 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,759 Speaker 9: change their mind in the next day or two, and 656 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:45,440 Speaker 9: there's certainly not going to be anybody change their mind 657 00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,759 Speaker 9: about January sixth. Before November of twenty twenty four. 658 00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:52,080 Speaker 3: Finally, Congressman, just in our final minute with you on 659 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 3: the idea of January sixth, Donald Trump asked the Supreme 660 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,760 Speaker 3: Court to take up the Fourteenth Amendment case overturn Colorado's ruling. 661 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:02,120 Speaker 3: He says in his filing that January sixth was not 662 00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:04,960 Speaker 3: insurrection and he did not engage in it. And I 663 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,399 Speaker 3: know you're not a constitutional law expert, but you were 664 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,880 Speaker 3: enmeshed in the events of that day. What actually happened 665 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:13,600 Speaker 3: was it insurrection? 666 00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:17,080 Speaker 9: It was absolutely you know, when you look at command 667 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,440 Speaker 9: and control, we don't have to be ensconced in politics 668 00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,839 Speaker 9: or in legal you know, sort of maneuvering to see 669 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,960 Speaker 9: that there were people who coordinated that day all the 670 00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,040 Speaker 9: way up to White House staff. And we know that 671 00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,560 Speaker 9: White House staff was involved or at least texting, you know, 672 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,600 Speaker 9: with people like the oath Keepers. That is a fact. 673 00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,279 Speaker 9: We know about phone records, we know the linkages, We 674 00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:37,799 Speaker 9: know the amount of people that really thought that they 675 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 9: were there in a coordinated fashion. We know about the 676 00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:41,759 Speaker 9: youarth keepers, we know about you know, the convictions of 677 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 9: seditious conspiracy and the Proud Boys. So as an insurrection. 678 00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:46,360 Speaker 9: You just have a guy who wants to win. But again, 679 00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 9: if a majority of the public or the majority of 680 00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:52,120 Speaker 9: the Republicans excuse me, believe it wasn't an insurrection, he's 681 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,279 Speaker 9: going to get those votes. And you know so, yeah, 682 00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:55,960 Speaker 9: I mean, it doesn't have to do with legal maneuvering 683 00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:57,920 Speaker 9: at all. It's about It's actually about data, and the 684 00:35:58,000 --> 00:35:59,680 Speaker 9: data shows what happened that day period. 685 00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:03,920 Speaker 3: All right, a very clear answer from Denver Riggleman, former 686 00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,080 Speaker 3: Republican Member of Congress from Virginia. Thank you so much 687 00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:09,480 Speaker 3: for joining us. Sir, this is Bloomberg. 688 00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 689 00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:17,840 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 690 00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:19,840 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 691 00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:21,240 Speaker 2: The Bloomberg Business app. 692 00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:24,200 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 693 00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:28,720 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 694 00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:34,320 Speaker 3: We know that Donald Trump yesterday has asked the Supreme 695 00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,200 Speaker 3: Court of the United States to overturn a ruling from 696 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,720 Speaker 3: Colorado which bars him from the ballot on the grounds 697 00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 3: of the Fourteenth Amendment. Trump and the filing, saying that 698 00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,400 Speaker 3: he did not engage in insurrection, that the events of 699 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,840 Speaker 3: January sixth were not insurrection in the first place. So 700 00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,480 Speaker 3: let's get more on this now from an actual legal export. 701 00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,520 Speaker 3: Joining me now, expert Nick Ackerman is with me now. 702 00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 3: He is a former Watergate prosecutor. Nick, thanks so much 703 00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:01,879 Speaker 3: for coming up back on the program. It's always great 704 00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,920 Speaker 3: to speak to you. First of all, is there any 705 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,799 Speaker 3: world in which the Supreme Court would decide not to 706 00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:09,160 Speaker 3: take up this case. 707 00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,400 Speaker 5: I can't imagine that the Supreme Court is not going 708 00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,920 Speaker 5: to take this case. I mean, they just have the 709 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,279 Speaker 5: practical problem that if they don't take it, they're going 710 00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:22,920 Speaker 5: to get decisions from all different states and it's just 711 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,800 Speaker 5: going to be a patchwork of inconsistencies in what is 712 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,160 Speaker 5: supposed to be a national election. 713 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,680 Speaker 3: Well, Nick, you mentioned all these different states. Obviously there's 714 00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,640 Speaker 3: a number at play here. Maine also has a ruled 715 00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,480 Speaker 3: to keep him off the ballot that has too been challenged. 716 00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:42,200 Speaker 3: I know you think that the Supreme Court ultimately should 717 00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:46,120 Speaker 3: uphold Colorado's ruling on the grounds of the Fourteenth Amendment. 718 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:50,160 Speaker 3: But if they don't, how will it impact the cases 719 00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,160 Speaker 3: in the other states, Because if they don't actually make 720 00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,000 Speaker 3: a decision around insurrection if they want to avoid that 721 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,840 Speaker 3: and they find, you know, a procedural means or something 722 00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:01,480 Speaker 3: like that, would that necessary be applicable to the main 723 00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:03,720 Speaker 3: case or any other case. 724 00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:06,880 Speaker 5: Oh. I think whatever they do, it's going to be 725 00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:10,080 Speaker 5: applicable to all fifty states, and there's just no way 726 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:12,640 Speaker 5: they can get around that. If they don't do that, 727 00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:15,640 Speaker 5: it's going to be really kind of bedlam in the 728 00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:18,560 Speaker 5: sense of he's on the ballot in some states and 729 00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,120 Speaker 5: not on the ballot in other states. That just wouldn't 730 00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:21,840 Speaker 5: make any sense. 731 00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:27,400 Speaker 3: Okay, So it'll be a blanket ruling regardless in your mind, 732 00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:29,840 Speaker 3: When do you think we'll actually get it? How quickly 733 00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:31,680 Speaker 3: would you expect the court to act on this? 734 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,640 Speaker 5: Well, I mean they just filed the Trump just filed 735 00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:41,239 Speaker 5: his cert petition yesterday asking the Court to review it. 736 00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,000 Speaker 5: If the Court first has to decide whether it will 737 00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:48,080 Speaker 5: do so, which I think it will, and then there'll 738 00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:51,359 Speaker 5: be a briefing schedule. So we're looking at probably at 739 00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:55,239 Speaker 5: least a month before oral argument on this, unless they 740 00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:58,200 Speaker 5: really try and expedite it. They could as possible. 741 00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:03,960 Speaker 3: I wonder if the pressure of the primary in Colorado 742 00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:07,120 Speaker 3: actually being an early March may dictate how they think 743 00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,319 Speaker 3: about timing here. Something else that's supposed to happen in 744 00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:12,200 Speaker 3: early March, or at least Jack Smith would like to 745 00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,480 Speaker 3: see happen in early March, is the start of the 746 00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:17,400 Speaker 3: trial in the case here in Washington, where federal charges 747 00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,200 Speaker 3: have been brought against the former president for his actions 748 00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:23,840 Speaker 3: around the twenty twenty election. Jack Smith, though in that case, 749 00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:28,239 Speaker 3: didn't actually charge Trump with insurrection, and I wonder if 750 00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,520 Speaker 3: if the court were to make a decision around the 751 00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:35,520 Speaker 3: insurrection question in some form, does that undermine potentially any 752 00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:39,600 Speaker 3: of the other charges that Smith actually brought. In terms 753 00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,200 Speaker 3: of the strength of his case, it. 754 00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:46,560 Speaker 5: Should have absolutely no impact on his case. His case 755 00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:50,080 Speaker 5: is a criminal case. The issue about whether or not 756 00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,600 Speaker 5: Donald Trump is qualified to be on the presidential ballot 757 00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:59,600 Speaker 5: is purely a civil matter, and it's totally aside. Both 758 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:04,080 Speaker 5: issues are completely different. Now, it could be that the 759 00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:07,719 Speaker 5: Supreme Court, and I've suggested this, is that in order 760 00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:12,280 Speaker 5: to determine and to at least if there's any question 761 00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:14,640 Speaker 5: in their mind whether or not the evidence that was 762 00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:20,200 Speaker 5: presented before the January sixth House Committee was sufficient on insurrection, 763 00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:23,319 Speaker 5: they certainly have the right to reach down into the 764 00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,960 Speaker 5: grand jury that brought that indictment and review some of 765 00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:30,880 Speaker 5: that testimony that has a bearing on this issue. For example, 766 00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:36,080 Speaker 5: the testimony of Vice President Pence would be highly relevant 767 00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,399 Speaker 5: to this question, And I think if the Supreme Court 768 00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,399 Speaker 5: were to do that, it would certainly show that they're 769 00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,880 Speaker 5: taking the extra mile to look at the issue and 770 00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:49,000 Speaker 5: come up with a decision based on not just the 771 00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:54,480 Speaker 5: January sixth Committee but also other testimony, including Donald Trump's 772 00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:55,600 Speaker 5: own vice president. 773 00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:59,080 Speaker 3: So do you think the time it takes them to 774 00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:01,840 Speaker 3: do that work, even if the Jack Smith case technically 775 00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:06,680 Speaker 3: is unrelated, could actually cause a timeline issue for the 776 00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,279 Speaker 3: Jack Smith case. Again, this is a trial that he 777 00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:12,080 Speaker 3: wants to begin in early March. If the court is 778 00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,879 Speaker 3: still enmeshed in this fourteenth Amendment question, does that move 779 00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:17,399 Speaker 3: that timeline farther out? 780 00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,800 Speaker 5: Totally irrelevant to that has nothing to do with it, Okay. 781 00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:26,120 Speaker 5: The only issue that right now is delaying the DC 782 00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:30,640 Speaker 5: case is this issue about presidential immunity, which is going 783 00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:34,680 Speaker 5: to be argued before the DC Circuit this Tuesday. I 784 00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:38,480 Speaker 5: would suspect that they are going to deny Trump's claim 785 00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:41,840 Speaker 5: for immunity. It's going to be very quick, and I 786 00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:45,319 Speaker 5: also suspect the Supreme Court will not take up that issue. 787 00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:48,400 Speaker 5: They have enough problems already now with the Fourteenth Amendment. 788 00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,440 Speaker 5: So I think this case is going to go in 789 00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:52,680 Speaker 5: March as scheduled. 790 00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,560 Speaker 3: On the subject of scheduling and dates around this case 791 00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:02,160 Speaker 3: in regard to it specific Trump today accused Jack Smith 792 00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:05,520 Speaker 3: of violating a stay order and wants him held in 793 00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:09,280 Speaker 3: contempt as a result. What's your thought on that matter? 794 00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:15,200 Speaker 5: Total nonsense. All political has nothing to do with what 795 00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:19,080 Speaker 5: Jack Smith is doing. He is entitled to file motions 796 00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,640 Speaker 5: in the case in DC. The only thing that the 797 00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:26,000 Speaker 5: stay does is it means that Trump's lawyers don't have 798 00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:30,319 Speaker 5: to do anything until the DC Circuit rules. Again, it's 799 00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:32,040 Speaker 5: just posturing by Donald Trump. 800 00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:36,880 Speaker 3: Well, so let's turn to not Donald Trump, but the 801 00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:39,560 Speaker 3: role of other actors in this including the justices. This 802 00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,920 Speaker 3: is something you and I have discussed before the issue 803 00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:45,160 Speaker 3: of Clarence Thomas, knowing how closely his wife Jinny Thomas 804 00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:48,040 Speaker 3: is tied to many of these issues that this court 805 00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,719 Speaker 3: is dealing with or going to have to deal with. 806 00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:54,800 Speaker 3: How should we be thinking about what happens if Clarence 807 00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:57,840 Speaker 3: Thomas does not recuse himself and what it means for 808 00:42:57,880 --> 00:42:59,040 Speaker 3: the court going forward. 809 00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:04,400 Speaker 5: Well, certainly he should recuse himself. His wife was involved 810 00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,760 Speaker 5: with Mark Meadows and discussions with people in the White 811 00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:11,520 Speaker 5: House that all surrounded this insurrection and what occurred on 812 00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:15,759 Speaker 5: January sixth, So by every right he should not be 813 00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:20,160 Speaker 5: deciding this case. However, there's really nothing to enforce that. 814 00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:24,759 Speaker 5: If Clarence Thomas decides that he wants to decide the 815 00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:29,120 Speaker 5: case and be involved, he can do it. So we'll 816 00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,879 Speaker 5: just have to see what happens if he does. It's 817 00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:34,360 Speaker 5: certainly not going to help the reputation of the court, 818 00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:37,640 Speaker 5: and I'm sure that others on the Court aren't going 819 00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:41,280 Speaker 5: to be too happy about it, But there is nothing 820 00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:46,160 Speaker 5: really with any teeth to enforce that kind of refusal. 821 00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess we will have to wait and see. Finally, Nick, 822 00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:54,359 Speaker 3: I'd love to get your sense of something we've talked 823 00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,440 Speaker 3: about a few times on this program and over the 824 00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:58,560 Speaker 3: course of the last several weeks, which is the notion 825 00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:03,359 Speaker 3: of the judicial branch of the court system deciding these 826 00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:07,000 Speaker 3: things that are so crucial to American democracy, rather than 827 00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:10,440 Speaker 3: all of it being in the hands of the American voter. 828 00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:13,759 Speaker 3: What rules should the courts serve here? Do you see 829 00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,600 Speaker 3: merit to that argument that this is up to the electorate, 830 00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:18,120 Speaker 3: it shouldn't be up to people on a bench. 831 00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:21,080 Speaker 5: Well, it's not really up to the electorate. There are 832 00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:24,279 Speaker 5: a whole series of items in the Constitution that are 833 00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:28,880 Speaker 5: prerequisites and pre qualifiers before somebody can even run for president. 834 00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,640 Speaker 5: He has to be thirty five years old, at least 835 00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,839 Speaker 5: has to have been born in the United States, has 836 00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:37,319 Speaker 5: to have resided in the United States for at least 837 00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:42,640 Speaker 5: fourteen years, cannot if he's been re elected twice as president, 838 00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:46,160 Speaker 5: cannot be elected a third time, and the next The 839 00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:49,279 Speaker 5: last requirement is this one that he cannot have been 840 00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,720 Speaker 5: in a situation where he took an oath to defend 841 00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:57,040 Speaker 5: the constitution, engaged in insurrection, and then hold office in 842 00:44:57,080 --> 00:45:01,000 Speaker 5: the federal government president and other offices. So these are 843 00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:04,920 Speaker 5: all prerequisites before you even get into the game, before 844 00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:08,880 Speaker 5: you even get into the election, And the obvious branch 845 00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:12,360 Speaker 5: of our government to enforce those rules is the Supreme Court. 846 00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:16,840 Speaker 5: Now keep in mind, this has never happened before with any. 847 00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:17,440 Speaker 4: Of these rules. 848 00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,759 Speaker 5: No one who's been fourteen or twenty has tried to 849 00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:24,799 Speaker 5: run for president and taking this up with anybody to 850 00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:28,319 Speaker 5: try and determine whether the person was really thirty five 851 00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:32,080 Speaker 5: or fourteen, or where they were a citizen born in 852 00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:36,040 Speaker 5: the US. And certainly no president before this has ever 853 00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:39,200 Speaker 5: been involved in an insurrection against his own government. 854 00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:43,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, these are unprecedented times that we're in and we're 855 00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:46,120 Speaker 3: very glad that you can join us to shed some 856 00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:49,759 Speaker 3: light and insight into them. Nick Ackerman, former Watergate prosecutor, 857 00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:50,480 Speaker 3: Thank you so much. 858 00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:54,960 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. 859 00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:58,120 Speaker 9: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 860 00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:00,640 Speaker 9: and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can 861 00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,640 Speaker 9: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one 862 00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:04,000 Speaker 9: pm 863 00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:08,200 Speaker 1: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.