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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Funny twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five fifty.

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Speaker 4: And the kicks block. Look, college football World start. Oh

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Speaker 4: my goodness, it's stop the.

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Speaker 3: Lateral to a counter.

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Speaker 5: Of the xIDE.

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Speaker 3: Get you belave the table off the field tonight.

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Speaker 4: It's not the sage of the game anything, It's the

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Speaker 4: sage of the fight.

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Speaker 3: What's up, Degenerate Nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: This is the week for college football betting preview. I'm

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Speaker 3: stucky and with me as always is Colin Wilson. Be

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Speaker 3: you ready to welcome the SEC into the mix.

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Speaker 2: I'm so ready. I've got all my little helmets out

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Speaker 2: on my desk. I got every single SEC team. I've

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Speaker 2: just been like setting them out, getting them ready to

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Speaker 2: put on the TV, getting ready to be wrong about

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Speaker 2: Mike Leach. I'm ready to, you know, as a magician,

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Speaker 2: would just kind of pull the wool off of this

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Speaker 2: entire conference and look at everything that's been going on

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Speaker 2: since we last saw everybody play.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't wait to dive in to some of

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Speaker 3: these games. We're gonna talk a lot of SEC We'll

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Speaker 3: talk to Miami, Florida State. We'll make sure we get

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Speaker 3: to at least one game in every conference this weekend.

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Speaker 3: Later on in the show, also talk about my trip

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Speaker 3: to Murphy's bro Tennessee as a result of betting Middle

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Speaker 3: Tennessee State. Who plays tonight if you listen to this

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Speaker 3: on Friday, so we'll cover Friday night. I want Middle

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Speaker 3: Tennessee State removed from the app, removed from my betting accounts.

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Speaker 3: Unfortunately that is not an option, but we'll get to

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Speaker 3: that as well. But before we get into the market games,

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Speaker 3: just want to remind everyone about the Action Pods Tournament

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Speaker 3: of Champions presented by Bett MGM, the official odds provider

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Speaker 3: of the Action of Work podcast. It's a free weekly

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Speaker 3: Yahoo DFS tournament specifically for our podcast listeners, and it's

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Speaker 3: really easy to join. You just click on the link

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Speaker 3: in our episode description for completely free to join. There's

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Speaker 3: no rake. The top ten weekly finishers receive over one

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Speaker 3: thousand dollars worth of Action Network prizes, and the top

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Speaker 3: five finishers each week punch their ticket to the wild

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Speaker 3: card weekend Grand Finale where they'll compete for the grand prize,

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Speaker 3: which is a trip to Vegas for two valued and

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Speaker 3: over five thousand dollars courtesy at bet MGM. So again,

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Speaker 3: just it's every week. You don't have to join every week,

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Speaker 3: but any week you want to go join, just click

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Speaker 3: on the link in our description and if you finish

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Speaker 3: in the top ten, you'll get a prize. To finish

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Speaker 3: in the top five, you'll automatically get a spot in

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Speaker 3: the Tournament of Champion at the end of the year

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Speaker 3: for a chance to win a trip to Vegas. All right,

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Speaker 3: so let's get in to our marquee games of the week.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups we'll all end up betting for week four.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's start with an SEC game which is

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Speaker 3: at noon. It's in a week weekend full of a

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Speaker 3: lot of large spreads in the SEC. You know you're

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Speaker 3: gonna see twenty seven and a half twenty eight thirty

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Speaker 3: and a half. This is one of the more intriguing

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Speaker 3: games of the weekend and number ferring to Kentucky at

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Speaker 3: Auburn at bet MGM. Auburn is currently a seven and

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Speaker 3: a half point favorite. Over under has ticked up a

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Speaker 3: few points to forty nine and a half. Kentucky's obviously

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Speaker 3: a program on the rise. In my backyard here in Lexington.

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Speaker 3: They didn't have a winning season from two thousand ten

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Speaker 3: to twenty fifteen. They've had four straight since. The big

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Speaker 3: question coming into the year is how they replace Lynn Bowden.

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Speaker 3: He was there do everything quarterback. He was their leading rusher,

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Speaker 3: he was actually their leading receiver for a team that

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Speaker 3: didn't throw. Really. Once he took over at quarterback, you

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Speaker 3: have to replace him. You do. You have an experienced

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Speaker 3: quarterback that'll take over in Terry Wilson. He's twelve and

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Speaker 3: three as a starter, so it's not like you're going

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Speaker 3: to a freshman or someone who's never played before. And

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Speaker 3: Wilson will have the benefit of a really, really good

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Speaker 3: offensive line, one of the best in the nation. You know,

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Speaker 3: two or three potential All SEC offensive lineman. He'll bring

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Speaker 3: all three of his top backs back this year. The

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Speaker 3: receiving corp is a complete unknown because, like I said,

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Speaker 3: they didn't throw last year. So Terry Wilson is obviously

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Speaker 3: not Lyn Boden. They're gonna have to throw more this year.

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Speaker 3: It's going to be still be a run heavy offense,

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Speaker 3: but you don't really know what you're getting from the

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Speaker 3: receiving group. Kentucky brings back seven of its top nine

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Speaker 3: tacklers on a defense, a defense that finished in the

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Speaker 3: top twenty in scoring last year and number two in

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Speaker 3: the country in pass defense. They allowed one hundred and

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Speaker 3: sixty seven point eight yards per game. I'll let you

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Speaker 3: get into Auburn bow Nick season bow Knicks season then

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Speaker 3: full effect. They were replacing a lot on the offensive

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Speaker 3: line and the defensive line and in the secondary. But

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Speaker 3: bo Nicks is back for a sophomore campaign with a

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Speaker 3: lot of talent at the skill positions. I'll let you

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Speaker 3: get into them, but I just want to cover this.

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Speaker 3: That Kentucky number two pass defense ranking is the most

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Speaker 3: ridiculous ranking I've ever seen for a team. So they

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Speaker 3: gave up one hundred and sixty seven yards per game

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Speaker 3: last year. Let's look at their twenty nineteen opponents. Toledo

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Speaker 3: eighty fifth in passing offense. Gwadani, their starting quarterback gets

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Speaker 3: hurt in the game and a freshman Carter comes in

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Speaker 3: and he is absolutely miserable, but Toledo didn't have a

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Speaker 3: good passing offense. They only phase two top fifty passing

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Speaker 3: offenses last year. Here's one of them, Eastern Michigan. In

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Speaker 3: game two, they were finished twenty eighth glass through for

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Speaker 3: three hundred and forty yards. Week three, they played Florida,

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Speaker 3: the sixteenth ranked passing offense. Florida threw for three hundred yards.

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Speaker 3: And this is when Franks gets hurt. Trash comes in

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Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter, he throws for like one hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty and they outscore Kentucky nineteen to nothing in

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Speaker 3: the fourth quarter. So after those three games, you know,

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Speaker 3: Godwana gets hurt. Eastern Michigan throws over three hundred, Florida

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Speaker 3: throws over for three hundred. You're not saying this Kentucky

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Speaker 3: secondary is all world. Here's where they played the rest

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Speaker 3: of the rest of the season. Mississippi State one hundred

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Speaker 3: and ninth, South Carolina seventy fourth, Arkansas one hundred and third,

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Speaker 3: Georgia seventy second in a monsoon, Missouri seventy third in

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Speaker 3: a monsoon, Tennessee seventy fifth, Vanderbilt one hundred and fifteenth, U. T.

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Speaker 3: Martin Louisville sixty fifth, in a monsoon and then Virginia

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Speaker 3: Tech eighty six and they give up thirty points. So

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Speaker 3: basically they played after that Week three they played nothing

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Speaker 3: but passing offenses ranks seventy fourth or worse. And in

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Speaker 3: a lot of number of games they played in monsoons,

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Speaker 3: which doesn't matter to their offense, they didn't pass it.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not a buyer in this being like a

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Speaker 3: really good secondary. Maybe it ends up being, but don't

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Speaker 3: take any of the numbers from last year. It's complete mirage.

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Speaker 3: So I think bon Nicks is gonna have success throwing

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Speaker 3: the ball with all of his you know, his lot

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Speaker 3: of speed, Schwartz and everyone is back from the receiving corps.

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Speaker 3: So I would love to get Auburn minus seven. Here,

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Speaker 3: what are your thoughts?

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Speaker 2: I would love to get Auburn minus seven too. I

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Speaker 2: think this game nine projections. You know, you and I

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Speaker 2: are kind of loose on the projections the first three

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Speaker 2: or four weeks till we get a lot of data end.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, I think, you know, Auburn and it's

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Speaker 2: seven is a buy, and we can see that in

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Speaker 2: the market anytime that it's dipped down and got to

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Speaker 2: seven and quickly comes back up, so I expected to

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Speaker 2: hang at seven and a half. I mean, if if

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Speaker 2: it crosses the six and a half on Saturday morning,

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Speaker 2: then there's got to be something COVID or injury related.

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Speaker 2: But you can hit the nail on the head with Kentucky.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there were so many monsoons and bad passing

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Speaker 2: teams that they went up against. It's really not fair.

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Speaker 2: The problem with backing Auburn is that their trenches have

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Speaker 2: been gutted. Offensive lineman Brandon Counsel and Nick Brahms. They're

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Speaker 2: the only ones to come back with starting experience. On

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Speaker 2: the defensive line. Derek Brown, Marlon Davidson's gone, you know,

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Speaker 2: Auburn's secondary gut it. And what they do have coming

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Speaker 2: back is Bo Nix and he's got you know, Seth Williams,

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Speaker 2: Eli Stove, Anthony Schwartz. I mean we're talking like an

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Speaker 2: extremely talented, skillful passing set. But Nix has got to

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Speaker 2: get a little bit better at throwing the ball. And

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Speaker 2: where I get uncomfortable backing Auburn, especially you know it's

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Speaker 2: seven and a half. I feel better at seven is

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Speaker 2: that if you go deep into his numbers last year

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Speaker 2: and I know he was a true freshman. But this

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Speaker 2: has this has to improve this stat one hundred and

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Speaker 2: nine pressure dropbacks, he took seventeen sacks and had eighteen

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Speaker 2: throwaways and a completion rate of twenty seven percent in

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Speaker 2: one hundred and nine pressure dropbacks. You don't need to

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Speaker 2: be Joe Burrow. You don't need to be too. You

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Speaker 2: just you need to be better in twenty seven you

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Speaker 2: need I mean forty percent. We'll take right. So you know, Bonix,

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Speaker 2: when he's got a hand in his face, he has

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Speaker 2: not been a good quarterback whatsoever. Clean pocket, clean vision,

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Speaker 2: he's fine. So I'm a little bit nervous with the

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Speaker 2: offensive line situation, considering nexton needs a clean look. I'm

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Speaker 2: not comfortable with Chad Morris being the offensive coordinator. I

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Speaker 2: can tend to everybody that he's not really the one

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Speaker 2: calling the plays. Uh, there's nothing that's going into vote

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Speaker 2: for the Bonix to run that isn't stamped by Gus Maleson. Really,

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Speaker 2: Chad Morris, you're only there to take the fall when

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Speaker 2: it doesn't work. And Gus can say, wasn't me give

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Speaker 2: me another ad another year to my contract. So you know,

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Speaker 2: if you look at the Kentucky side, Terry Wilson has

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Speaker 2: playing experience, played in twenty eighteen, got injured last year's

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Speaker 2: you know, set that whole thing in motion with Lin Bowden,

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Speaker 2: you know. And the X factor could be Auburn's you know,

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Speaker 2: transfer quarterback, quarterback Joey Gatewood. You know, this is a

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Speaker 2: guy that was supposed to beat out Bonix last year,

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Speaker 2: and as of like two or three hours ago, he's

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Speaker 2: not been cleared by the SEC Commissioner sank and so

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Speaker 2: I'm not saying he would have a huge impact in

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Speaker 2: this game, but it is another option for Kentucky, dual

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Speaker 2: threat option that we have yet to see get on

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Speaker 2: the field, and there's definitely probably something inside this kid

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Speaker 2: that wants to get out there and play Auburn pretty bad.

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Speaker 2: I may look over considering the tempo the Morris wants

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Speaker 2: to run in this game, the weapons that Knicks has

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Speaker 2: are going to be able to go downfield, the dual

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Speaker 2: threat capability of Terry Wilson, and just the gutting of

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Speaker 2: the of the front defensive line of Auburn. I think

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Speaker 2: there could be some points here. So my look is

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Speaker 2: to the over, and I definitely want seven if I'm

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Speaker 2: going to back Auburn fair enough.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I still think. I mean, Aubert still

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Speaker 3: has two really good defensive linemen, and they brought in

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Speaker 3: a number of really high level recruits, and they have

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Speaker 3: one of the best Big CAF Brian's back Truesdale. And

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Speaker 3: I mean they got Hardy and Walker and Rodney Garnerman.

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Speaker 3: He can coach defensive lines and they just don't. They

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Speaker 3: get freshmen in there and they just dominate. Obviously, they

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Speaker 3: recruit really well.

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Speaker 2: I just think.

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Speaker 3: Kentucky Bowden did so much for them, and this defense

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Speaker 3: is a bit overrated. They have some They do bring

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Speaker 3: back seven of their top nine tackles, but they have

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Speaker 3: some losses linebacker, and they just benefited from such a

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Speaker 3: easy schedule pass offenses and weather that their defense is

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Speaker 3: being overvalued. Here, the Auburn offensive line for new starters,

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Speaker 3: it does worry me a bit, but I think bo

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Speaker 3: Nicks is going to take a jump here. It's a

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Speaker 3: return one of two returning quarterbacks that started the beginning

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Speaker 3: of last year that's going to start this year Auburn

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Speaker 3: and Texas A and M. I think that's that's big here.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I like Auburn two will be looking to

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Speaker 3: either get the minus seven live, maybe throwing them in

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Speaker 3: a money line parlay, and I'll be at a bar

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Speaker 3: in Lexington with a bunch of Kentucky fans watching come

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Speaker 3: to staggering. By the way, if you're around, I'll drink

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Speaker 3: some me. All right, Let's move on to our second

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Speaker 3: marquee game of the day. We have four this week.

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Speaker 3: The next three we're all be at in prime time.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk some Alabama. Alabama is at bet MGM. Alabama

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Speaker 3: is currently a twenty eight point favorite over Missouri over

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Speaker 3: under fifty five and a half. This game is at

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Speaker 3: seven Eastern ESPN in Colombia. Missouri is a mess. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they lose so it's amazing that their offensive line struggled

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Speaker 3: so bad last year, and they have three offensive linemen

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Speaker 3: from that team that are now in NFL rosters. They

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Speaker 3: have a new coach and Drake Witz is going to

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Speaker 3: run a new offensive scheme. You know. They lost a

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Speaker 3: tight end to the NFL as well. They still have

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Speaker 3: a name to starting quarterback. They might be going with

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Speaker 3: two quarterbacks. It's it's just a complete mess. The defense

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Speaker 3: was really good last year, but they've lost some pieces.

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Speaker 3: That corner they benefited from a pretty easy schedule as well.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that the Missouri numbers were as good

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Speaker 3: as they seemed. They see them make that defense my

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Speaker 3: angle in this game. This is the one team I

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Speaker 3: can feel really confident that's going to come out on fire,

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Speaker 3: especially after last season not making the College Ball Playoff.

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Speaker 3: Is a Nick Saban led team. Continuity of the coordinators too,

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Speaker 3: Mac Jones under center. This offensive line is one of

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Speaker 3: the best in the nation. Running backs are stacked wide receivers.

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Speaker 3: They lost a couple wives that could be just as good.

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Speaker 3: The defense we think is going to be a lot

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Speaker 3: better this year. I mean, I think Missouri is going

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Speaker 3: to be a mess. I think Alabama comes out with

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Speaker 3: its hair on fire.

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Speaker 4: And I'm gonna tell you what if I had a

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Speaker 4: barometer up your to say whether you were give an

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Speaker 4: effort or not, it was about fifty percent.

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Speaker 3: Why did you push yourself? We know saving a times

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Speaker 3: can struggle twenty eight thirty five point favorites and he might,

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Speaker 3: you know, go vanilla and rest guys late. I'm joining

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Speaker 3: the square bandwagon. I actually just bet this. I actually

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Speaker 3: just bet this as we were recording and put it

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Speaker 3: in the app. I'll join the square party Alabama first

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Speaker 3: half under set minus seventeen. I mean, I don't know

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Speaker 3: what this Missouri offense can do. And this Alabama defense

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Speaker 3: is going to be really motivated after a disappointing year.

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Speaker 3: And the offense should move the ball at will, they

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Speaker 3: should control the line of scrimmage. Missouri doesn't get any pressure.

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Speaker 3: Mec June should have all day to throw to an

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Speaker 3: elite group of receivers. Give me Bama first half thoughts.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I was able to bet on early

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Speaker 2: in the week and caught fifteen and a half. I

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Speaker 2: think if you want to avoid paying seventeen or seventeen

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Speaker 2: and a half, you probably should get it as quick

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Speaker 2: as possible. And you know, before I get into that

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Speaker 2: that Missouri playing two quarterbacks, I actually have heard they

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Speaker 2: might play all five quarterbacks. So I mean, it's going

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Speaker 2: to be very interest to see who we have under

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Speaker 2: center the entire game. They've had COVID issues week after

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Speaker 2: week after week. I believe twelve out last week, seven

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Speaker 2: to eight. There's a lot and drink Witz is completely

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Speaker 2: open about is about who has COVID issues, Like he's

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Speaker 2: like sweating in a Catholic church about being honest with

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Speaker 2: his priests about who all's got COVID. He'll tell you anything,

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Speaker 2: you know, I mean, so he he did make a

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Speaker 2: good decision in bringing, you know, keeping defensive coordinator Ryan Walters,

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Speaker 2: who was you know, under Barry Odin for a while,

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Speaker 2: and Missouri put up some great defensive numbers for you know,

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Speaker 2: as far as Missouri is concerned. So keeping him and

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Speaker 2: doing the same schemes, that's this plus on the defensive side.

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Speaker 2: But drink Witz, I don't know. The second they started

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Speaker 2: having spring, the second they started you know, August Camp

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Speaker 2: And I don't want to get too much into coach

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Speaker 2: speak and believe him, but he's always saying it's going

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Speaker 2: to take a really long time for this group to

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Speaker 2: grasp the kind of offensive philosophy that I've got going

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Speaker 2: in now. Sometimes I don't believe head coaches, but it

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Speaker 2: seems like drink Witz wants to be so truthful about everything.

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Speaker 2: Maybe I do need to believe him. But let's switch

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Speaker 2: over to the I mean, this is a completely inflated number.

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Speaker 2: So taking the first half is the way to go.

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Speaker 2: If you remember twenty eighteen, Alabama covered nine first halves

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Speaker 2: in a row. It got so bad that Vegas was

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Speaker 2: starting to put out point spreads of the first tens.

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Speaker 3: Were almost as big as the game lines.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the first halves were like minus twenty eight and

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Speaker 2: the game line was minus thirty five. And I think

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Speaker 2: if you're going to play Alabama, that's the way to go.

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Speaker 2: Pete Golding is their defensive coordinator. He's got everybody healthy.

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Speaker 2: He's run havoc defenses since he was at UTSA shout

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Speaker 2: out to meet me, you know, five years ago. Maybe

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Speaker 2: this is one defensive coordinator that knows how to force fumbles,

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Speaker 2: tackles for loss. He finally has a healthy unit. And

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Speaker 2: when you look on the other side of the ball,

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Speaker 2: the more I mean, the more offseason work I did,

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Speaker 2: the more I like Mac Jones. I mean I really

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Speaker 2: I thought was down on mac Jones. Maybe it was

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Speaker 2: just I didn't think he could fill to his shoes.

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Speaker 2: But the more you look at mac Jones, there's no

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Speaker 2: efficiency drop off under pressure whatsoever. He had a sixty

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Speaker 2: two percent completion rate on passes that went ten yards

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Speaker 2: or more. He can throw it deep, he has a

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Speaker 2: great completion rate throwing it deep. No drop off when

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Speaker 2: there's pressure whatsoever. And then you consider that his games

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Speaker 2: were against Mississippi State, against Auburn. He had a bowl game.

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Speaker 2: I mean he did not face the Cupcakes. The two

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Speaker 2: of got early in the schedule. So you know, I

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Speaker 2: think this number is completely inflated. It's way over where

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Speaker 2: Action Networks projection is where things like sagger and it's huge.

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Speaker 2: But you know, considering the circumstances with what Missouri is

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Speaker 2: bringing to the table, the COVID issues, the five quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: the different scheme, I think it's justified that the number

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Speaker 2: is that big. Now, the one thing that I would say,

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Speaker 2: in taking a first half over a full game is

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Speaker 2: that the one of the biggest games in the SEC

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Speaker 2: WES is next week and that's Alabama in Texas A

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Speaker 2: and M. And if Alabama wants to get up by

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Speaker 2: thirty five at halftime and go vanilla the rest of

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Speaker 2: the game, they might do that. Saban might choose to

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Speaker 2: do that. Now, I would prefer the Saban that wants

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Speaker 2: to be scorched Earth. I want to save and that

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Speaker 2: didn't make the College Football Playoff and wants to remind

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Speaker 2: everybody that this Titanic is not sinking after you know,

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Speaker 2: a decade of dominance. But we'll see Texas A and

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Speaker 2: M is Texas A and M is on deck. So

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Speaker 2: I will take a first half here along with you.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Missouri's I mean Missouri's defense, that's I like this

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Speaker 3: scheme a lot of times. They'll play with like a

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Speaker 3: five man defensive front, and they really stopped the run

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Speaker 3: on early downs, unfortunately in the third down situations. But

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Speaker 3: I mean, Alabama's offensive line is gonna is gonna move

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Speaker 3: mountains this year, and they're gonna be able to run

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Speaker 3: the ball. And Missouri doesn't get pressure on third downs,

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Speaker 3: and they need to replace Elliott who was drafted in

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Speaker 3: the middle of that defensive line. They lost their star

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Speaker 3: corner to Mark this ac and they're replacing him with

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Speaker 3: a true freshman. And Alabama has some scary receivers that

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Speaker 3: I think can take advantage. All right, let's move on

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Speaker 3: to our third marquee game of the day, and we'll

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Speaker 3: move to the last SEC marquee game of the day.

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Speaker 3: That's Tennessee at South Carolina. Currently at at MGM. Tennessee

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Speaker 3: is a three and a half point favorite over Under

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Speaker 3: forty three and a half. The game's at seven thirty

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Speaker 3: Eastern on the SEC Network. I think we're in agreement

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Speaker 3: on this game. I made South Carolina closer to a pick,

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Speaker 3: which I think you did as well. I took South

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Speaker 3: Cala plus three and a half. I also took some

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Speaker 3: under forty four. There's a lot of uncertainty in this game.

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Speaker 3: Tennessee's one one sixth straight den and the season last year,

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Speaker 3: their defense really played well, so there was There's a

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Speaker 3: lot more optimism from Voles fans than there has been

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Speaker 3: in recent years. But there's still Jared Guarantano at quarterback,

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Speaker 3: who I'm just not a fan of. And Harrison Bailey.

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Speaker 3: Now he's gonna be the next star quarterback at Tennessee.

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Speaker 3: You can get really excited about him, but Guarantana I

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Speaker 3: just not a believer. You know, he has three of

378
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Speaker 3: his top four receivers are gone. Jennings in Callaway or

379
00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:59,680
Speaker 3: were huge last year, so it's it's basically just Josh

380
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Speaker 3: Palm back in the receiving core, and Villis Jones came

381
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:06,159
Speaker 3: in as a transfer from USC They're starting tight end.

382
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,880
Speaker 3: Austin Popes also out. He's also important in the running game.

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Speaker 3: The offensive line is really the strong suit of Tennessee.

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Speaker 3: I mean, at their peak potential this year, they could

385
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Speaker 3: have all five starters over three hundred pounds and like

386
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Speaker 3: all five stars, but Cade Mays still hasn't received He

387
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 3: got an exemption, he got cleared by the NCAA, but

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Speaker 3: he hasn't received clearance for the SEC, you know, and

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Speaker 3: he's gonna piece All SEC potential and Wanya Morris their

390
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Speaker 3: left tackle. He's listening as he's an All second team

391
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Speaker 3: All SEC. He's listed as an or on the depth chart.

392
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Speaker 3: He has been in quarantine and dealing with a nagging injury,

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Speaker 3: so he might not go. So this this offensive line

394
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Speaker 3: isn't at it. It's not gonna be at its peak.

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Speaker 3: Maybe May's will get cleared in time, maybe Morris is

396
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Speaker 3: fully healthy, but there's definitely questions on the offensive line.

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Speaker 3: The defense is solid for Tennessee, and then on the

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Speaker 3: South Carolina side, you have to replace Kinl in the middle.

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Speaker 3: He was huge for their defense last year. But they

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Speaker 3: do have a five star and pick who's going to

401
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 3: try and do that. They have a really good secondary,

402
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:04,359
Speaker 3: so does Tennessee, which I think this is game is

403
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,399
Speaker 3: just going to be really ugly. But I like a

404
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:10,400
Speaker 3: few things on South Carolina, mainly they named Colin Hill

405
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Speaker 3: Colin with two L's their starting quarterback. Mike Bobo comes

406
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Speaker 3: in as a new offensive coordinator, so you say, hey,

407
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Speaker 3: new scheme, new quarterback. That's not good after you know,

408
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Speaker 3: after this, no spring in short and summer preparation. But

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Speaker 3: Colin Hill has played under Bobo's system before and there's

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Speaker 3: a lot of familiarity there. He has a bigger arm.

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Speaker 3: I think he's more depth of passing downfield. But Bobo's

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Speaker 3: had a lot of comments saying like, I'm shocked that

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Speaker 3: we threw the ball more than LSU last year and

414
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Speaker 3: we went to run the ball and so you know,

415
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Speaker 3: and they lost Brian Edwards to the NFL receiver they

416
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Speaker 3: basically just have Shy Smith back and a lot of

417
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 3: question marks against the ball's secondary. So I think it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be a lot of running. Hill will take a

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Speaker 3: couple shots, connect on a few, which I think will

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Speaker 3: be the difference. One of the biggest things for me

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Speaker 3: is there's been a lot of there's been a lot

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Speaker 3: of COVID issues with Tennessee. I don't know how much

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Speaker 3: this team has gelled. I think they've said that they've

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Speaker 3: only had like fifteen full practices. At times they've had

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00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 3: forty to fifty players out of practice, So I think

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00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 3: that this Tennessee team might be really rusty. I'll take

427
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 3: the better quarterback here, and I'll take the under in

428
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 3: a game that I think it's gonna be. It's gonna

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Speaker 3: be ugly, it's gonna be how muschap once. It's gonna

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Speaker 3: be a mucked up game. Yeah.

431
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 2: I mean, if you don't like Garantana, I'll just throw

432
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 2: one of that. I don't like Jim Cheney. I mean,

433
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,960
Speaker 2: this is the offensive coordinator that was at Georgia. He

434
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 2: wasn't fired, but he mutually parted ways with Kirby Smart,

435
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 2: essentially because he couldn't get any points when they got

436
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,160
Speaker 2: into the red zone. Comes over to Tennessee. Last year,

437
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 2: the offense finished eighty fourth in success rate. That's not

438
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 2: the bump the volunteers were looking for offense. You know,

439
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 2: they returned sixty nine percent of their defense, but that

440
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 2: ranked They ranked seventy seventh in pass breakups and just

441
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,879
Speaker 2: thirty third and sacks. So I'm prefacing all that to

442
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 2: say they're not batting passes down and they're not getting

443
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,160
Speaker 2: to the quarterback. And that's gonna be a really big

444
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 2: deal against South Carolina because for the first time in

445
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 2: forever the Jake Bentley years, and I can just slew

446
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 2: a quarterbacks. South Carolina actually has somebody that can throw

447
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 2: it down the field. The biggest issue in the passing

448
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 2: game last year was throwing it down the field. Hilenski

449
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:16,880
Speaker 2: had just nine completions of twenty yards or more, nine

450
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 2: completions of twenty yards or more and four hundred and

451
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 2: thirty dropbacks. I've never seen more passes short, dink and

452
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,399
Speaker 2: dunk that you couldn't find another offense like that, But

453
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,879
Speaker 2: that has all changed. Mike Bobo comes in. If you

454
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 2: don't know anything about Colorado State offenses over the past

455
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 2: couple of years, why don't you go ask Chad Morris

456
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 2: who was at Arkansas where Mike Bobo and Colin Hill

457
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 2: threw for about eight hundred yards right over the razorbacks head.

458
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 2: This is going to be a deep throwing offense. Bobo

459
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 2: ran eleven personnel and a seventy five pass distribution. I

460
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 2: mean running the ball first, Tinten, I think we're passing

461
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 2: third and three. I think we're passing. I mean seventy

462
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 2: five percent pass distribution out of eleven in Colorado State.

463
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,880
Speaker 2: You know Colin Hill was twenty three to eleven TD

464
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 2: to I n T rate. He had three thousand, three

465
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,439
Speaker 2: hundred passing yards. He knows Mike Bobo's offense better than

466
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,199
Speaker 2: any other quarterback in the world that could come in

467
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 2: and run to do this for South Carolina all the way.

468
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 2: I mean it's at three and a half, it's touched

469
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 2: some fours. I'll take that three and a half and

470
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 2: we'll look at that money line a little bit on

471
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 2: the game.

472
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 3: Cox, Yeah, I agree with you on the Bobo offense. Usually,

473
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 3: I just think that he's gonna run it a little

474
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 3: more early and then if they do throw it downfield,

475
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 3: the options aren't great against an experienced Tennessee secondary led

476
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 3: by Bryce Thompson a corner. But another thing that does

477
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 3: benefit the under is Pruitt is extremely familiar with Mike Bobo,

478
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 3: so like they served on the same staff, they know

479
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 3: each other's systems really well. I mean they're really good friends.

480
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 3: They used to live in the same neighborhood in Athens,

481
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 3: so there's a lot of familiarity here knowing what they're

482
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 3: gonna run. But so I think it's actually gonna be

483
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,719
Speaker 3: a run. It's gonna be a downfield passing attack overall

484
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 3: this year, I think in the first game, and hopefully

485
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,120
Speaker 3: Colin Hill can stay healthy. I mean he's had three

486
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 3: torn acls. Crazy. I think it's gonna be a heavier

487
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 3: run base attack for this game, in particular, based on

488
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,360
Speaker 3: some of the quotes I've been reading. But I think

489
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:19,919
Speaker 3: it's an ugly game. Both defenses performing better than the offenses,

490
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 3: and it comes down to a couple plays here and there,

491
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 3: and I trust Hill to make those plays over guardon Dona.

492
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 2: Imagine the Deebo Samuel is still around for this passing

493
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 2: attack that would have been.

494
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 3: Tremendous ed Or Edwards from last year.

495
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're Edwards.

496
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 6: Hope you're enjoying this great Action network podcast. I want

497
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 6: to make sure you know about the locked On podcast network.

498
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 6: Locked on as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

499
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 3: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

500
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 3: own of the Dallas Mavericks.

501
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 2: Hello, everybody's to the Lockdown Lakers podcast.

502
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 3: Let's Go.

503
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 6: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

504
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,919
Speaker 6: know your team better than anyone and give you the

505
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 6: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

506
00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 6: locked On your favorite team. Subscribe to your Locked On podcast.

507
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to our final marquee game

508
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 3: of the weekend, and we're going to shift over to

509
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 3: the ACC and we're gonna talk Florida State Miami. Currently

510
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 3: at bett MGM, Miami is an eleven and a half

511
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 3: point favorite over under fifty four and a half. This

512
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 3: is a fascinating game. We've talked about Miami and the

513
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 3: rise of the U and is the U back? And

514
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 3: they have Clemson next week and they've started off two

515
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 3: and zero. They beat UAB, They looked impressive against Louisville

516
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 3: game you nailed this gives a seven thirty Eastern at

517
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 3: hard Rock Stadium on ABC. By the way, Florida State

518
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:45,239
Speaker 3: meanwhile had the complete opposite start. They were upset by

519
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech at home. Mike Noveld, their head coach, is

520
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 3: not going to be on the sidelines, calls all their plays,

521
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 3: he has COVID. But there's a couple things that I

522
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 3: like about Florida State. Number one, the spot. This is

523
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 3: a spot Miami is laid in again. I mean what

524
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 3: Manidas is eight seven at his time in Miami. Three

525
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 3: of those seven losses he was a double digit favor

526
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 3: This game really reminds me of twenty eighteen. Miami was hyped.

527
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 3: I think they were four and oh they were ranked

528
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 3: coming in. They were fourteen point favorites. They were Florida State.

529
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:16,919
Speaker 3: They were down twenty seven to seven. They ended up

530
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 3: coming back and winning twenty eight twenty seven. But you know,

531
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 3: Florida State will be up for this game. These are

532
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 3: new schemes. They played a ton of freshmen and first

533
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 3: time players, especially on the offensive line in that first

534
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 3: game against Georgia Tech. So now you know, you got

535
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 3: that experience, you got that game out of the way. Now

536
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 3: you had two weeks to prepare for Miami. You can

537
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 3: make adjustments. And there's there's a couple of things worth

538
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 3: noting in that game. You had, you know, their best

539
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 3: players on defense. So number one, they had four offensive

540
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 3: linemen get hurt during the game. And you know, their

541
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 3: best player, Love Tailor, their best offensive lineman, he got

542
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 3: hurt at the end. He had to go out his

543
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 3: backup team and got beaten and there was a forced

544
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,680
Speaker 3: fumble on a stack and that's how they lost the game.

545
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 3: But Kaneo, who's their best defensive end, he left the

546
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 3: game apparently he's gonna plays on the depth and then

547
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 3: nazarare ol Dean, he is their best safety and he

548
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 3: didn't play. He's been on the depth chart and it

549
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 3: looks like he's gonna play. He's getting drafted, maybe in

550
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 3: the first two rounds. He flies around the field. He's

551
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 3: the leader on that defense. So basically, you were playing

552
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 3: without a number of offensive linemen. It's all freshmen on

553
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,879
Speaker 3: the left side. You know, you lost your best edge rusher,

554
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 3: you did work, you were playing without your star safety.

555
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,640
Speaker 3: All those guys should be back. According to the depth chart,

556
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 3: offensive line is fully healthy, and then all the defense

557
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 3: is back. So it wasn't your full Florida State roster,

558
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 3: and there was some unfortunate injuries throughout. I expect the

559
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 3: defense to be a lot better in this game under

560
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 3: Adam Fuller. I mean, Georgia Tech had eighteen plays at

561
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 3: ten plus yards. It was not great, but this was

562
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:46,959
Speaker 3: not what the Florida State defense is going to look

563
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 3: like all year. Miami offensive line is a lot better

564
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 3: with Jared Williams, but there it's not been efficient. I

565
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 3: heard you talk about this on an interview. I think

566
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 3: I'm sure you're going to talk about it again. They've

567
00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 3: just been relying on a lot of explosive plays. This

568
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 3: will be the best secondary, the best defensive line with

569
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 3: Marvin Wilson and Kaneo on the edge that they'll have

570
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 3: faced this year. I know the Florida State offense is

571
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 3: ugly with black men and a young offensive line, but

572
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,440
Speaker 3: the Miami defense has some holes that you can exploit.

573
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 3: Look out for Terry on screens. Look out for some

574
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 3: big plays from Terry the scripted portion early when Blackman's

575
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 3: most comfortable. They might have some success. But I think

576
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 3: Florida State comes out with their hair on fire here.

577
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 3: Miami might be a little caught, a little looking ahead,

578
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 3: a little overconfident and sleepy. I make this under ten,

579
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 3: So I took eleven and a half. It's scary, but

580
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 3: I had to take the value. And there's some things

581
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 3: that I like about Florida State that I can kind

582
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 3: of toss out from that first game and thoughts here.

583
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was a little scary earlier in the week

584
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: taking Florida State, you know, eleven and a half. I

585
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 2: remember plunking the money down and put it in the

586
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 2: app and thinking, did I really just do this? But

587
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, it's a rivalry game. But is

588
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 2: there a letdown factor after a huge primetime roadectory for Miami.

589
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just this is sports. This is how

590
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 2: these things work. You know, Miami is living and dying,

591
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 2: and like I've said it before, they're living and dying

592
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 2: on the offensive explosiveness. They are number one in the

593
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 2: country right now in EPA expected points on every offensive play.

594
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 2: They have become the king of bust and play, you know,

595
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 2: busted big play there. They're the Russell Wilson. Every time

596
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 2: you bet against the Seahawks, that dude runs for twenty

597
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 2: five yards and ruins your bet. So you know, Miami's

598
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 2: offensive success rate is actually outside the top forty. And

599
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 2: there's only been like what fifty two to fifty three

600
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 2: teams play and their offensive success rate is outside the

601
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 2: top forty. So we're not moving the chains. We're just

602
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 2: highly explosive. And remember they you know, they rank an

603
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 2: offensive success rate, they rank around Western Kentucky and utep

604
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 2: So that's you know, that's not good. And if they

605
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 2: go up against the defense that can limit their explosiveness.

606
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 2: You know, a defense that has a lot of athleticism

607
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 2: and can tackle in space, which Florida State has that's

608
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 2: going to be a problem. State's defense right now has

609
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 2: posted the fifth best number against explosiveness. Now, I know

610
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,719
Speaker 2: who they played, and I know they're not very explosive,

611
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 2: but you know, we're gonna use some stats. So far,

612
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 2: Florida Stake's looked pretty good stopping the big play, particularly

613
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 2: on passing downs. That ranking was even better. No, Mike

614
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 2: Norvel makes me a little nervous because when he's at Memphis,

615
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 2: when he's you know, he is in so much control

616
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 2: of the play calling. I don't think anybody's ever called

617
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 2: place for him. He's always been the one. But you know,

618
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 2: I'm sure every play that goes in has been pre

619
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 2: approved and that the game plan will be set. Their

620
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 2: offensive line issues are getting better. The number should be

621
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 2: around seven and a half eight, So eleven and a

622
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 2: half is too many overreaction to how great Miami looks.

623
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 2: We'll see if Florida Stake can finish it out and

624
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 2: at the cover.

625
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean black it's scared back back in Blackman.

626
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 3: I mean he was. He was good in that scripted portion.

627
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 3: I think he was sixteen to thirty four for one

628
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty yards over the final forty minutes of

629
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 3: that game, and then you see what happened with Georgia

630
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 3: Tech and UCF, and you say, but again, it's just

631
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 3: one game, and you can't overreact too much. I expect

632
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 3: this game to be close, but if it got ugly

633
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 3: and Miami wanted to run it up, I wouldn't shock me.

634
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 3: Before we cover a game or two from every conference

635
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 3: now and go through the rest of the slate. Here's

636
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 3: a quick word from our friends at BETMGM.

637
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,320
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645
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,280
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646
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,080
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647
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,400
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648
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:05,480
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649
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 5: West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one eight

650
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 5: hundred and five to two two forty seven hundred in

651
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,360
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652
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:15,480
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653
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 5: it in Indiana. Promo offer not available in Nevada. And

654
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 5: now back to the show.

655
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 3: All right, let's go conference by conference now the conferences

656
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 3: that are playing and cover a game in each conference. Unfortunately,

657
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 3: this week, just like last week, some of my favorite

658
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 3: games have been postponed. Houston, I don't know if they're

659
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 3: ever going to play a game this year. I can't

660
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 3: bet at Arkansas State. I wanted the bet Jay Adams.

661
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 1: The most electrifying player in college football.

662
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 3: Just go John Adams. That is an unbelievable catch. That

663
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 3: is like olvery j.

664
00:32:53,200 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 4: Horder this time you went dos a broad Jay.

665
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 3: Stop it. This is not real. This kid is amazing.

666
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 3: I would one of the best. I wanted the bet

667
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 3: against Florida Atlantic again. Am I ever gonna get to

668
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 3: do that? Nope? That game was postponed as well. So

669
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 3: we'll see if there's any more here, but as you

670
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 3: get closer to Friday, the chances do go down. All right,

671
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 3: let's start with the AAC and let's talk Army. Sincey

672
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 3: a battle of two ranked teams at Bett and Gym,

673
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 3: Cincinnati is a thirteen and a half point favorite over

674
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 3: under forty five. Obviously, when you talk Army, you have

675
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 3: to talk triple option.

676
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 2: Ay, margets understand that.

677
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 3: Bullshit. I can't hear you. I still don't know what

678
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 3: to take from Army. You know, I was down on

679
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 3: them this year, but and they've looked great. They've played

680
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana Monroe. I mean, are those

681
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 3: the worst two teams in the Entry? Potentially? Maybe? So,

682
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 3: I don't know how much you can take for them.

683
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 3: So then you know Cincinnati. They blew out Austin p

684
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 3: I mean, can't take anything from that game too. But

685
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 3: coming into the season, Cincinnati was a legit, you know,

686
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,720
Speaker 3: top twenty five team. Now I say to myself, Okay,

687
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 3: does Cincinnati face a triple option? When I went back

688
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 3: in time for Luke Fickel and Marcus Freeman, their defensive coordinator.

689
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 3: They played Navy in twenty seventeen and got waxed. They

690
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 3: gave up six hundred yards rushing. They lost forty two

691
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 3: thirty two. Navy just embarrassed that defense. So Cincinnati went

692
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 3: back to the drawing board. The next year in twenty eighteen,

693
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 3: they played Navy again and they held them to one

694
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty four yards and won forty two. Nothing

695
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 3: changed a bunch of things on the defense and completely

696
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 3: dominated the game. On the defensive side, they run a

697
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 3: lot of three man fronts, but they're probably gonna go

698
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 3: with more four man fronts this week to stop the option.

699
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 3: They have a couple of guys on the defensive line

700
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 3: that were you know, Dunlinco and White that were on

701
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:12,880
Speaker 3: that twenty eighteen team. That's completely shut down Navy's triple

702
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 3: option attack. So that gives me some confidence that Cincinnati,

703
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 3: and I love Freeman, their defensive coordinator is gonna be

704
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 3: a head coach somewhere and fickle that they're going to

705
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 3: be prepared. They at least know how to coach up

706
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 3: a defense to get ready for a triple option attack.

707
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 3: I think you might like since he It goes against

708
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 3: everything inside of me to bet against a service academy

709
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 3: as a double digit dog, it's very difficult to cover

710
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 3: against them because there's so few possessions. The clock's always running.

711
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 3: I'm leaning to an under here. I think Cincinnatis d

712
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 3: is going to shut down Army. It's just hard for

713
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 3: me to get a read on Army after two They

714
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 3: just played two cupcakes. So what are your thoughts here?

715
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you made the biggest point of this

716
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 2: entire handicap was Luke Fickle and Cincinnati getting blown out

717
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 2: in twenty seventeen. Them coming back to spring practice and

718
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 2: summer camp, fall camp and putting in extra work for

719
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 2: the triple option in twenty eighteen, just blowing the doors off.

720
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,959
Speaker 2: Maybe they have taken a similar approach this year. They

721
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,800
Speaker 2: have had a month to prepare this. This game was

722
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 2: announced a month ago. They've had a month prepare, and

723
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 2: they've done a lot of work around the triple option.

724
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 2: You haven faced them before. Sometimes you don't take it seriously,

725
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 2: and Luke Fickle is not going to be caught off

726
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 2: guard here in this game. With the triple option, and

727
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 2: they have nine returning starters on defense, We're talking some

728
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 2: just some horses on the defensive side of the ball,

729
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 2: some guys that are probably going to be playing on

730
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 2: Sunday and they fill the gaps. I mean last year

731
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 2: they were top thirty in line yards, top thirty and

732
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 2: stuff rate. These guys can fill the A, B and

733
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:41,959
Speaker 2: C gap. They're they're going to be able to stop

734
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 2: the triple option. You know, we look at Cincinnati's only game,

735
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 2: and I know what their competition was, but they had

736
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:52,240
Speaker 2: nine tackles per loss. You know, they had nine stuff runs.

737
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,760
Speaker 2: They only allowed four yards for play in rushing attempts.

738
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 2: The bulk of their returning production is all in the

739
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 2: front seven. And I think you have to turn around

740
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 2: and look like, you know, Cincinnati is such a defensive

741
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:05,919
Speaker 2: team and they're great in the front seven, and they've

742
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 2: proven it with experience before, and the head coach has

743
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 2: proven it before. Let's look at the Army side. How

744
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 2: high is Army stock. I mean, really, it's like it's

745
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 2: like free money for everybody now to jump on Army

746
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 2: right here and take the points. Especially with the total

747
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 2: so low. This must be the easiest bet on the

748
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 2: board because there's not gonna be that many points. You

749
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 2: can get two scores with Army. Army scored six turnovers

750
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 2: on ULM and Middle Tennessee State so Desmond Rivers got

751
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,399
Speaker 2: to have you know, in a fishing game, Garrett doaks,

752
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 2: They've got to protect the ball. Offensive line must dominate

753
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,799
Speaker 2: the trench. They probably should against this Army front four.

754
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 2: You know, Army has scored a touchdown or this is

755
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 2: a stat like you, Army has scored a touchdown or

756
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 2: run out the clock on twelve of seventeen drives this year.

757
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 2: They've had no adversity in any game whatsoever. They're now

758
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 2: playing on the road, but I mean, look at that

759
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 2: means ulm. That was in the bottom ten of FS

760
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 2: and defending the rush, and they lost their defensive coordinators

761
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:06,280
Speaker 2: middle Tennessee. Who's a joke. We'll get to them later.

762
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 2: Army stock right now is as high as it possibly

763
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 2: could be. Cincinnati, we know, is a defensive variable that

764
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,399
Speaker 2: we can count on, you know. I mean, I even

765
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,359
Speaker 2: power rated at fifteen, so I was glad to get

766
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,799
Speaker 2: it under fourteen. But I'm all on cencion this up

767
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 2: until the number of fourteen. I think the defense is

768
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 2: going to get the job done. Just no turnovers from

769
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 2: Ritter will be fine. Yeah.

770
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 3: The other thing that I like the under also, I mean,

771
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,879
Speaker 3: I think Cincinnati's defense is going to ball out. I'm

772
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 3: not a huge fan of Ritter. That offensive line isn't

773
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 3: great and their leading receiver is out, so you know

774
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 3: it's not an offense. It's just going to completely explode

775
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 3: against a reasonable defense. So I like the under forty five.

776
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 3: I like the under forty five, and I don't I

777
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 3: never mind going on an under with the Service Academy team.

778
00:38:56,360 --> 00:39:00,280
Speaker 7: After evaluating millions of leases of data in lead link

779
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 7: le Gamble Tron two thousands, the run AWF Cincinnati by

780
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 7: two one hundred points five worthless.

781
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 3: All right, up, next, let's go to the ACC and

782
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:21,280
Speaker 3: let's talk a little. Louisville Pitt at bet MGM. Pitt

783
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,959
Speaker 3: is a two and a half point favorite over under

784
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:29,320
Speaker 3: his fifty four and a half. I took Pitt minus

785
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,280
Speaker 3: two and a half. I make this a tat over four.

786
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 3: I'm a huge believer in the pit defense. I love that.

787
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,279
Speaker 3: I mean they have NFL talent all or from the

788
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 3: defensive line, which is scary good, especially on the edges

789
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:45,279
Speaker 3: and with Weaver and company. And then on the back

790
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:47,880
Speaker 3: end there's town Paris forward at safety is one of

791
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 3: the best in the country. This defense can ball and

792
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 3: pick it. I'm a believer in him taking the next

793
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 3: step this year. From what I've seen, you know, it's

794
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 3: not been against the greatest competition. And last week I

795
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 3: think they shoul I got a little bit seeing that

796
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:04,440
Speaker 3: three three five of Syracuse, but it's the Louisville defense.

797
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:08,239
Speaker 3: I haven't seen much improvement from them. This is still

798
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 3: a defense that you can shred. So I think basically

799
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,319
Speaker 3: what this comes down to, and Louisville still is a

800
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 3: very explosive offense with their three headed monster. They're gonna

801
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:18,799
Speaker 3: make plays as they normally do. But what I think

802
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 3: this comes down to is I trust the pit defense

803
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 3: to get more stops uh than Louisville. So I'm rolling

804
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 3: with the Panthers to move to three. Now, what are

805
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 3: your thoughts in this game?

806
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's no play for me, but you know I

807
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 2: wanted Initially my thoughts were as I wanted to take Louisville,

808
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 2: and I started off the week that way, and you know,

809
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 2: just realizing the defensive end Patrick Jones and Rashad Weaver

810
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 2: for Pitt, they're gonna be able to contain Cunningham and

811
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 2: keep him in the pocket from getting out there and

812
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 2: running around. So that kind of led me down the

813
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 2: path of looking. You know, what is their passing game been.

814
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 2: They've been fifty to fifty run pass out of eleven personnel,

815
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 2: sixty two percent from twelve. So they're they're they telegraph

816
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 2: if they're gonna run, if they're gonna pass. But if

817
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 2: they can't run against this, the there's gonna be some

818
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 2: you know, there's there's gonna be some problems here because

819
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,319
Speaker 2: all they're going to have left is to pass the ball,

820
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 2: and that might not work against Pitt either. The one

821
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 2: thing that kept me off this game, the big stat

822
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 2: that I just could not get passed, was that Pitt

823
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 2: leads the nation in havoc. They have twenty two tackles

824
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:19,720
Speaker 2: for loss so far this season. Louisville's offense has allowed

825
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 2: twenty tackles for loss. That offensive line is allowing a

826
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 2: lot of that could be cunning. I'm trying to make

827
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 2: things happen, but twenty tackles for loss so far on

828
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 2: your off but you know from your offensive line that's

829
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 2: supposed to be dominating people, and you know Pitt's defensive

830
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 2: front seven is leading the nation and tackles for loss

831
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 2: and in havoc. That's not a good combination. So I'm

832
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 2: not really sure I'm up for getting behind Louisville in

833
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 2: this spot. I'm more intent to sit back and see

834
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 2: if they can deal with a really tough defense. I

835
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 2: mean i'd like to buy Yeah, yeah, it's fantastic. I

836
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 2: mean the lean for me was was Louisville. The line

837
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 2: is extremely slow, I mean low. If Pitt was around

838
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 2: five or six, you know, yeah, I would back them.

839
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 2: But no, I'm going to This is a stay away

840
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:05,760
Speaker 2: from me because I always just want to see Louisville

841
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:07,840
Speaker 2: survive against his defense.

842
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:12,880
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to the Big twelve and

843
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:18,879
Speaker 3: talk a little Iowa State TCU. I'm at bet MGM

844
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 3: right now. I always state it's a two and a

845
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:21,799
Speaker 3: half point favorite over under forty four and a half.

846
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 3: I think I'm on an island here in Iowa State.

847
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 3: I haven't seen anyone that likes Iowa State except me,

848
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 3: and they looked awful in their first game, but they

849
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 3: have a couple of things working for them. First of all,

850
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 3: that game was not as bad as it looked. We've

851
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 3: talked about this. Louisiana two special teams touchdowns in an

852
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:40,239
Speaker 3: eighty yard touchdown. Right now, Rock Party was awful, had

853
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:42,879
Speaker 3: the worst game of his career, but he didn't have

854
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 3: Charlie Cohler. If they're star tight end was going to

855
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 3: play in the NFL, arguably the best tight end in

856
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 3: all of college football. He's they've had two weeks since

857
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 3: the game. He's practiced, he traveled with the team. He's

858
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 3: officially day to day. I think he's gonna play, taking

859
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 3: a risk on that because he's the key to their offense.

860
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 3: Both their guards went down with injuries, including Trevor Downing,

861
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 3: who is probably their best offensive lineman. He went out

862
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 3: in the first half, didn't return. Him and Hudson their

863
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 3: two starting guards. They're both listed his day to day.

864
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 3: They both traveled the team. I think they're both gonna play.

865
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:13,759
Speaker 3: This is an undermanned offense. The defense played fine, and

866
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 3: it's still a really good Iowa State defense. The advantage

867
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,320
Speaker 3: that they have here is that they've played a game already,

868
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 3: and they've had two weeks since to make adjustments, and

869
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 3: they've got the rust off, and they have a really

870
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:28,799
Speaker 3: good coach in Matt Campbell that I trust. I mean,

871
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 3: he also is really strong against the spread. He usually

872
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 3: exceeds odds makers expectations fifty four to thirty nine and

873
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 3: three against the spread. As a head coach, it's fifty

874
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 3: eight percent. As an underdog or favorite of three or less,

875
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 3: he's thirty one, thirteen and one against the spread over

876
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:48,359
Speaker 3: seventy percent. I actually was coming into the year wanted

877
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 3: to back TCU early in the year. This is a

878
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 3: team that was unlucky last year in turnovers, unlucky in

879
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:56,799
Speaker 3: red zone defense, and as a result, I think they

880
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:00,040
Speaker 3: had six losses, what six to one possession losses. You

881
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 3: would think that, you know, the turnovers the red zone

882
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 3: that will regress and then those close losses will turn

883
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 3: the close wins this year. But this is just a

884
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:09,719
Speaker 3: tough spot for them to happen in their first game,

885
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 3: playing a team that's already played and they're dealing with

886
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:17,439
Speaker 3: a lot of turnover. They have a new quarterback and

887
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 3: they you know, former walk on at Georgia and Downing

888
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,360
Speaker 3: is going to make his first career start against a

889
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,840
Speaker 3: really good Iowa State defense. They lost Rager to the NFL,

890
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 3: they lost their top running back. You know, they lost

891
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 3: three off starting offensive linemen, including vote tackles. The offensive

892
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 3: line is still a big question mark. The defense should

893
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 3: be really good. Still that four two five that Gary

894
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:40,239
Speaker 3: Patterson runs. But they did lose black Clock, their defensive

895
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 3: tackle to the NFL second round draft pick, and they

896
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 3: lost Glad in either corner as a first round draft pick.

897
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 3: So there's some talent that's going on the safeties, maybe

898
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:52,240
Speaker 3: the best duo in college football. The linebackers are excellent,

899
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 3: the defense will still be good, but I just think

900
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 3: this comes down to Iowa State already having played, being

901
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,399
Speaker 3: able to make adjustment, and they have the much more

902
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 3: experienced and talented quarterback, which I think in the end

903
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 3: is going to make the difference here. I am counting

904
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 3: on their guards and especially color playing at tight end.

905
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:14,360
Speaker 3: He's just the key to their offense. Is basically a

906
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 3: free tight end a free touchdown in the game. So

907
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 3: I'm rolling with Iowa State here. I just like the

908
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 3: spot and I'm trusting to get healthier and rebound from

909
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 3: that mess to start the year.

910
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 2: Thoughts, Yeah, I have this game line as a pick,

911
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 2: so I didn't want to take Iowa State and have

912
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 2: to swallow some points on the road. Iowa State team

913
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 2: that I think needs to get into an offensive rhythm,

914
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 2: no matter if some of their skill position players play

915
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 2: or not. You know it's not b October yet, that'll

916
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 2: be next weekend. I'm sure it's just an auto play

917
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 2: for me TCU. You know Max Dvans cleared, he came

918
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 2: to practice. I don't think he's going to play, but

919
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 2: that's huge news for them. We didn't think he was

920
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 2: going to play the entire season, obviously recovering from a

921
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 2: procedure that he had I think a month ago. So

922
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:57,279
Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to play this game. So

923
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 2: it looks like Matthew Downey, who had already won the

924
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 2: starting job, he's gonna be the one to play in

925
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 2: this So there's a lot of unknowns, a lot of

926
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 2: COVID on TCU in the preparation for this game. I

927
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:08,439
Speaker 2: have a state I need to see some offensive rhythm

928
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 2: before I get behind them, So it's a pass for

929
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 2: me until next week with the Cyclones.

930
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:16,399
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to Conference USA and talk

931
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 3: a little Georgia State Charlotte at bet MGM. Currently, Georgia

932
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 3: State's a three point favorite. I'm on Georgia State minus one.

933
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 3: I like them up to minus three. I liked what

934
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 3: I saw from Georgia State and their opener against Louisiana

935
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 3: in a game that they probably should have won. And

936
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 3: there's a lot of questions about Charlotte and who's gonna

937
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 3: play and which quarterbacks available. I'm hearing from a little

938
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,839
Speaker 3: birdie the three starting offensive linemen and they're starting tight

939
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 3: ender out, so nothing confirm there. But I'm rolling with

940
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 3: Georgia State on some news and based on what I

941
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 3: liked and liked like last week and liked about them

942
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 3: coming into the year. Any thoughts in this game.

943
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:56,880
Speaker 2: I'm lucky to get both sides of this. I know,

944
00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 2: if you guys go on to the action app, you'll

945
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 2: sometimes see me take the other side of games, and

946
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:02,399
Speaker 2: this is a perfect one. A couple of days ago,

947
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 2: Georgia State was listed a plus one. I have them

948
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 2: power rated as minus one in this game, so I

949
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:10,720
Speaker 2: happily took the plus one. This thing has swung all

950
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 2: the way to Georgia State minus three. So today happily

951
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 2: put in a bet on Charlotte plus three, mostly because

952
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 2: of what stuck you talk about this COVID news that's

953
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:24,640
Speaker 2: coming around, and more importantly, you know quarterback Chris Reynolds

954
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 2: has a banged up shoulder and reading the Davy County

955
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 2: Enterprise Record from a couple hours ago. Reynolds might play,

956
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:36,239
Speaker 2: he might be out for a week, he might be

957
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:38,720
Speaker 2: out for the season. I mean, this is the report

958
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 2: last night on local radio. Will Healey, head coach of Charlotte,

959
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 2: came out and said the next two days of the

960
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 2: side whether Chris Reynolds is going to play in this

961
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 2: game or not. He's a huge piece of the Charlotte offense.

962
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 2: They are a you know, they can run on the ground,

963
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:53,279
Speaker 2: They can really attack you on the ground, and that's

964
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 2: a place where you can get at Georgia State's defense.

965
00:47:57,120 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 2: Trey Hargerson the third average five point one yards here

966
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 2: against app State. Chris Reynolds took off ten times from

967
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 2: the pocket against Apps State. So that's how they're going

968
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 2: to have to attack Georgia State and get to win here.

969
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:12,320
Speaker 2: But with so many questionable you know, COVID and banged

970
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 2: up shoulders, and he might not play, he might be

971
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 2: out for the year. He could play. I mean, there's

972
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 2: just so such a wide range. If I didn't have

973
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:21,919
Speaker 2: any money on this game whatsoever, and I knew Chris

974
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 2: Reynolds was gonna play, I take a plus three on Charlotte.

975
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 2: If he's not playing, I wouldn't touch the game at

976
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 2: all because it'd be too much to back on Georgia State.

977
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm hearing from a little birdie that Reynolds may play,

978
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:35,440
Speaker 3: but they're back up who They're kind of high on

979
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 3: Dom Schoffner. He's been dealing with COVID stuff too, so

980
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 3: both of them aren't available. It's a walk on Ratliff

981
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 3: that that old that would be starting a quarterback with

982
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 3: a with an offensive line that a couple offensive liven

983
00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 3: to just practiced for the first time in weeks. Not promising.

984
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:55,120
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to some fun belt. Don't

985
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 3: let the latest come between you and the bill. Georgia

986
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 3: Southern Louis. I'm on Georgia Southern plus fourteen here. I'm

987
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:05,879
Speaker 3: very high on this team. I throw out the Campbell game.

988
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 3: They had thirty three guys out. They bring back their

989
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 3: entire triple option offense. They address some of their issues

990
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:12,839
Speaker 3: on their offensive line, which I think was gonna be

991
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 3: better this year. Is the issue last year. You know

992
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:19,359
Speaker 3: Shay Wartz, senior quarterback, Wesley Kennedy, their star running back.

993
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:23,080
Speaker 3: He's back for this week after missing their opener against Campbell.

994
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 3: Same with all of their star defensive players. I think

995
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 3: their defense is going to be a lot better this year.

996
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 3: I think this is like a sleeper in the conference.

997
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:32,800
Speaker 3: They're going up. But I took plus fourteen. I like

998
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 3: the plus fourteen even before all of the news. And

999
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 3: Alex plus eleven and a half. And I don't know

1000
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 3: if this game is actually gonna be played or not,

1001
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 3: but I liked it. I make this nine and a half.

1002
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 3: That's how high I'm on Georgia Southern and Louisiana. You know,

1003
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:49,320
Speaker 3: this is the team we talked about their fluke winning

1004
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 3: against Iowa State. They should have lost to Georgia State,

1005
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 3: and now they have five, maybe six starters out, and

1006
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:58,879
Speaker 3: you know, one of their receivers is banged up and

1007
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:02,120
Speaker 3: they might be using walk on and replace him a receiver.

1008
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 3: Their star running back Elijah Mitchell ran for one hundred

1009
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 3: and seventy yards against Georgia State. He's out. Joe Dillon,

1010
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 3: their best linebacker, he's out. Washington their best corner, he's out,

1011
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:15,799
Speaker 3: their best tackle, he's out. I mean, these are key

1012
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:20,520
Speaker 3: players that are out on Louisiana. Five starters in total.

1013
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 3: There's a lot of still COVID uncertainty. I'm just going

1014
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:28,320
Speaker 3: based on the depth chart and what they they said

1015
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:30,719
Speaker 3: based Napier came out and said who's on the depth

1016
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:32,879
Speaker 3: chart is who's gonna play when someone asked them about

1017
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 3: the other guys. So those guys are out. I don't

1018
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:37,319
Speaker 3: know if there's gonna be any more players out, but

1019
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:40,239
Speaker 3: I like Georgia Southern again. It's a triple option team

1020
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 3: catching double digits and a team I'm high on. And

1021
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 3: especially with all these COVID losses for Louisiana, who's now ranked,

1022
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:51,840
Speaker 3: I think you're just getting an inflated number here, and

1023
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:55,040
Speaker 3: obviously it's been adjusted down about three points as a

1024
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 3: result of the news. Right now, bet MGM Louisiana sits

1025
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:01,200
Speaker 3: at a up and a half point favorites over under

1026
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:02,319
Speaker 3: fifty one and a half thoughts in this.

1027
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 2: Game, Well, first off, I think you have some sort

1028
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 2: of COVID magnet. Every time there's some sort of crazy

1029
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:08,839
Speaker 2: COVID breakout, it's a game that you've got some money on.

1030
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 3: Or every game the CEP Middle Tennessee State games. Why

1031
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:12,640
Speaker 3: can't they get canceled?

1032
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, they haven't canceled anything yet. You know, listen, I'm

1033
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:18,879
Speaker 2: not betting on this game. There's too many unknowns. I'll

1034
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:21,280
Speaker 2: just leave you with this. You know, ULL had twelve

1035
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 2: stuff runs and fifty rushing attempts against Georgia State. I'm

1036
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 2: not positive they're slowing down Georgia Southern's rushing attack. They

1037
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:32,920
Speaker 2: had a problem stuffing runs a really low percentage of

1038
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 2: Georgia State rushing attempts. They're not going to get it

1039
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:38,400
Speaker 2: done against Georgia Southern. So but for me, it's a

1040
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:39,120
Speaker 2: complete segway.

1041
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:44,920
Speaker 3: Also, their huge defensive tackle, the transfer from Fyu, who's awesome.

1042
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:48,240
Speaker 3: He's out and that's huge against a triple option offense.

1043
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to the Independence. We can't

1044
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 3: forget about them, and BYU takes on Troy. BYU is

1045
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 3: currently a fourteen point favorite at that MGM. This game

1046
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,799
Speaker 3: is the late night, it's late. It's basically our pac

1047
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:11,280
Speaker 3: twelve after Dark Towns ten to fifteen pm Eastern on ESPN.

1048
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:15,320
Speaker 3: BA is a fourteen point favorite. I took Troy plus fourteen.

1049
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 3: I like some of the things I saw against Middle

1050
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:20,320
Speaker 3: Tennessee State, although what can you really take against Middle

1051
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 3: Tennessee State? But mainly I just think this line is inflated.

1052
00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:27,320
Speaker 3: I make it closer to ten, you know, BYU. The

1053
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:29,680
Speaker 3: last time everyone saw them was a couple of weeks

1054
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:32,239
Speaker 3: ago when they beat Navy fifty five to three. I

1055
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 3: mean that game was nothing about BYU. That was all

1056
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 3: about Navy not practicing tackling and BYU just handing it

1057
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 3: off and running dives for touchdowns. So I think this

1058
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 3: line is super inflated. Give me Troy catching two touchdowns

1059
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:47,320
Speaker 3: thoughts here, Yeah, I'm.

1060
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 2: Going at a different angle. I mean, there's COVID whispers

1061
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:52,000
Speaker 2: out of BYU. You know, it's not the gambling night

1062
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 2: they had a while back, but there's actually current offensive

1063
00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:56,440
Speaker 2: lineman and parents like posting on Twitter right now that

1064
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:58,840
Speaker 2: their kids have pneumonia and COVID and all kinds of

1065
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 2: stuff running through the team. So you know, we all

1066
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 2: know BYU curb stomped Navy. They posted a forty one

1067
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:07,960
Speaker 2: percent explosive drive rate, and it's pretty crazy. Troy had

1068
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:12,239
Speaker 2: similar success in the final score against Middle Tennessee. I mean,

1069
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 2: when you put up a number like that against the

1070
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 2: Blue Raiders, you would think that there was all kinds

1071
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:20,960
Speaker 2: of success rate and explosiveness, but there wasn't. Troy ran

1072
00:53:21,000 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 2: at a pace of twenty three seconds per play. They

1073
00:53:23,680 --> 00:53:26,840
Speaker 2: had a success rate of fifty four percent. That's national average.

1074
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:30,760
Speaker 2: Troy had no explosiveness on offense. Of all their drives,

1075
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:34,400
Speaker 2: they had one drive that was an explosive drive. Troy

1076
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 2: had just one pass and one rush that went over

1077
00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 2: twenty yards. When I read that, I thought, well, how

1078
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 2: did they win this game so much? BYU runs one

1079
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 2: of the slowest paces in the nation thirty one seconds

1080
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 2: per play against Navy, But if you look back at

1081
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 2: years past, they're consistently outside the top one hundred and

1082
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 2: plays per game. BYU wants to run a grind of

1083
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 2: a game on the ground while Troy struggles moving the

1084
00:53:56,680 --> 00:54:00,319
Speaker 2: chains and busting chunk yards. Listen, Troy's not an explosive team. Fast,

1085
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 2: but they're not explosive, and they're not they don't have

1086
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 2: any kind of success right that's above the bar of

1087
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 2: the national average. This is an under for me all

1088
00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:09,319
Speaker 2: the way. I think. I think Tom is gonna eat

1089
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 2: up Troy's offensive line. I think b Yu is gonna imposer.

1090
00:54:13,000 --> 00:54:15,839
Speaker 2: Will Grimes is gonna call a running game. I know

1091
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 2: they ran the ball a ton against Navy because they

1092
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 2: had such a huge lead, but I think this is

1093
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 2: gonna be more of a run game, that pass game,

1094
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:24,239
Speaker 2: and than to me, I think sixty one points is

1095
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:25,080
Speaker 2: a little bit too much.

1096
00:54:25,480 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 3: There you have it. That's your late night action on ESPN,

1097
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:33,080
Speaker 3: the under and the dog. All right, before we get

1098
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 3: to three and out, let's talk some FCS.

1099
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:49,040
Speaker 1: Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big Ten.

1100
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 7: It's time to play FC yes or no.

1101
00:54:57,600 --> 00:54:59,759
Speaker 3: All right, fcyes or no. I have nothing this week,

1102
00:54:59,800 --> 00:55:02,440
Speaker 3: and I mean I'm doing NFL college football, trying to

1103
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:05,759
Speaker 3: prepare for the French ship at MLB playoffs. I had

1104
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:09,840
Speaker 3: no time to look into Houston Baptists and Steven F. Austin,

1105
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:11,719
Speaker 3: But you have some thoughts here? What do you got?

1106
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:13,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Houston Baptist has been able to put

1107
00:55:13,880 --> 00:55:15,960
Speaker 2: up six hundred yards and everybody they've played this year,

1108
00:55:15,960 --> 00:55:18,839
Speaker 2: and Louis has a Louisiana Tech dealing with COVID trying

1109
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 2: to get into sync.

1110
00:55:19,560 --> 00:55:19,719
Speaker 3: Here.

1111
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:22,239
Speaker 2: They have BYU on Friday, so they only have six

1112
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:24,680
Speaker 2: days of prepare for a big BYU game. I don't

1113
00:55:24,719 --> 00:55:27,720
Speaker 2: think they've prepared for Houston Baptist whatsoever. So I would

1114
00:55:27,760 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 2: look not just at maybe a point spread, but I

1115
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 2: mean the over here. I mean Houston Baptist is running

1116
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 2: plays like every twelve seconds. You know, as far as

1117
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:37,840
Speaker 2: Steven F. Austin, SMU goes, it's the same thing. I

1118
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 2: don't know why sm you would focus on a terrible

1119
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 2: Stephen F. Austin team maybe an under in this game

1120
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:45,600
Speaker 2: because they have Memphis on deck. I know air Raids

1121
00:55:45,680 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 2: like to stay in sink. At the same time, I'm

1122
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:49,120
Speaker 2: not going to I'm sure they're gonna play the whole

1123
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 2: game with Steven F. Austin really has problems putting points

1124
00:55:51,360 --> 00:55:54,080
Speaker 2: on the board. So the FCS games Houston Baptists and

1125
00:55:54,080 --> 00:55:56,440
Speaker 2: Steven F. Austin their opponents have big overlook games to

1126
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 2: the following week.

1127
00:55:57,440 --> 00:55:59,880
Speaker 3: All right, there you have it. I promise I will

1128
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:02,920
Speaker 3: have more FCS intel as the season goes on and

1129
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:05,879
Speaker 3: we start shedding some sports here. But before we get

1130
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:07,239
Speaker 3: out of here, let's go three and out.

1131
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:12,040
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1132
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 3: So on first down, let's talk some Friday night lights.

1133
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:19,720
Speaker 2: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1134
00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:23,760
Speaker 3: Hey, let's go play some football and we'll talk Middle

1135
00:56:23,800 --> 00:56:30,480
Speaker 3: Tennessee State, my nemesis taking on UTSA. Oh boy, I

1136
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:32,400
Speaker 3: mean I don't even want to look at this game.

1137
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:35,839
Speaker 3: I refuse to so you're gonna basically take it all.

1138
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 3: Utsa is a six and a half point favorite at

1139
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 3: BETMGM over under sixty and a half. I'm sure this

1140
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 3: line is too high. I don't care.

1141
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:45,799
Speaker 2: I've been waiting for this the entire part. Do you

1142
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:48,719
Speaker 2: really not care that this game literally should be like

1143
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:51,400
Speaker 2: a pick or Utsa by like one? Do you really

1144
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:51,799
Speaker 2: not care?

1145
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:54,919
Speaker 3: I need to see life from Middle Tenness before I can't.

1146
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 3: I just gove the Murphy's bro at three and a

1147
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:59,719
Speaker 3: half hour drive. I prayed at the churches and the

1148
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:02,200
Speaker 3: boot temples that I would never bet them again. I

1149
00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:04,359
Speaker 3: can't do it. Four days later, then we drove three

1150
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:07,319
Speaker 3: and a half hours back and thought about how poor

1151
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:09,279
Speaker 3: of a decision I made in betting Middle Tennessee State

1152
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:11,440
Speaker 3: against Army, and then Middle Tennessee State last week, and

1153
00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 3: then Middle Tennessee State live and the Middle Tennessee State

1154
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:15,920
Speaker 3: second half. So no, I don't care, but I know

1155
00:57:16,520 --> 00:57:19,120
Speaker 3: the listeners do for the podcast, and it's on Friday night.

1156
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:21,120
Speaker 3: It's the only game, so give them a winner.

1157
00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 2: I can't see the stucky I know who couldn't keep

1158
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 2: himself from Akron games and UMass games last year and

1159
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, you've cut Middle Tennessee State up, so.

1160
00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:31,440
Speaker 3: We'll see I found Jesus.

1161
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:34,120
Speaker 2: I'm telling you right now that number should not be

1162
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:36,560
Speaker 2: six and a half to seven. It's just sitting there.

1163
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:40,360
Speaker 2: It's like, oh man, I mean, I do how hard

1164
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 2: it's been not to put money on this game because

1165
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:46,120
Speaker 2: UTSA predominantly rushed. They look great against Texas State, high

1166
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 2: flying offense, but then they come out and have a

1167
00:57:48,120 --> 00:57:51,920
Speaker 2: game last week and it's ugly. I mean it's low scoring,

1168
00:57:51,960 --> 00:57:53,200
Speaker 2: thirty four point game and.

1169
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:54,880
Speaker 3: It's all rush.

1170
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 2: And that's what UTSA predominantly is. Is there a rushing team? Now?

1171
00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 2: Do we think Middle Tennessee is actually going to score

1172
00:58:00,120 --> 00:58:01,960
Speaker 2: some points? I think they've had two trips past the

1173
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:05,360
Speaker 2: forty yard line, two trips pass the forty yard line,

1174
00:58:05,360 --> 00:58:08,640
Speaker 2: and eight quarters of play, So I think the game

1175
00:58:08,640 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 2: you've got I think what you got to do is

1176
00:58:10,040 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 2: an under here. But man, are you playing with fire?

1177
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:16,320
Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee State might actually have a pulse. What if

1178
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 2: u TSA goes abe shit Texas State style and starts

1179
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:22,400
Speaker 2: running all over the place. I mean they're certainly capable

1180
00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:25,240
Speaker 2: of it. I'm telling you the play here analytically and

1181
00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:28,400
Speaker 2: from a numbers perspective, is Middle Tennessee State plus seven

1182
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:31,400
Speaker 2: and under sixty. We have one last good weekend of

1183
00:58:31,440 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 2: weather here where I live. I am gonna do everything

1184
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:36,640
Speaker 2: I can in my world to not bet on this game.

1185
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:38,640
Speaker 2: But if I had to Middle Tennessee State in the

1186
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 2: under and man, I'm really gonna try, it's gonna take

1187
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 2: everything I have. I'm glad you found god whoever's keeping

1188
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:46,480
Speaker 2: you from betting the Blue Raiders, but it says you

1189
00:58:46,520 --> 00:58:48,280
Speaker 2: should be taking the Blue Raiders here. Let's see if

1190
00:58:48,320 --> 00:58:48,480
Speaker 2: you do.

1191
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:53,040
Speaker 3: Nope, Nope, I have seen the light I mean, look,

1192
00:58:53,480 --> 00:58:56,000
Speaker 3: I make the number lower two when projecting it early

1193
00:58:56,000 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 3: in the air. But what have we seen for Middle

1194
00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:00,680
Speaker 3: Tennessee State that they can't do anything? Do you see

1195
00:59:00,680 --> 00:59:02,680
Speaker 3: their numbers so far? I don't know what happened to them.

1196
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:04,280
Speaker 3: I mean maybe there's gonna be some teams like this

1197
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 3: after COVID summer, So no, thanks. Plus, I have my

1198
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:11,600
Speaker 3: Stars future. I need the Stars to win Tomorrow night

1199
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:14,120
Speaker 3: against the Lightning down two to one, so I'll be

1200
00:59:14,160 --> 00:59:17,360
Speaker 3: watching that and preparing for the French Open, maybe betting

1201
00:59:17,400 --> 00:59:20,240
Speaker 3: some baseball, but no Friday Night Lights for me, all right,

1202
00:59:20,320 --> 00:59:23,040
Speaker 3: let's move on to second down here and talk our

1203
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:27,200
Speaker 3: favorite overdog. For those not familiar, that's our favorite favorite

1204
00:59:27,440 --> 00:59:28,200
Speaker 3: of the weekend.

1205
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 2: It's called the overdogs Parlay.

1206
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:33,920
Speaker 3: I'll keep it simple. I already said mine Alabama. First half,

1207
00:59:34,360 --> 00:59:37,720
Speaker 3: angry Bama coming out against a Missouri team that should

1208
00:59:37,720 --> 00:59:40,760
Speaker 3: be a mess, make a statement they should move the ball.

1209
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:43,480
Speaker 3: I think Bama's up by at least twenty one at

1210
00:59:43,480 --> 00:59:44,040
Speaker 3: the half.

1211
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:49,919
Speaker 2: You Kansas State looked as bad as possible against Arkansas State,

1212
00:59:50,560 --> 00:59:55,760
Speaker 2: extremely inexperienced an offensive line. Skyler Thompson's nothing wrong with him,

1213
00:59:55,800 --> 00:59:57,280
Speaker 2: he just has to have a little bit of protection.

1214
00:59:57,520 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 2: The defense got torched. Oklahoma, if you remember, got beat

1215
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:05,520
Speaker 2: by this team last year embarrassingly. I don't think Lincoln

1216
01:00:05,560 --> 01:00:08,200
Speaker 2: Riley has forgot about that. Their twenty eight point favorites,

1217
01:00:08,240 --> 01:00:10,520
Speaker 2: and I think they curb stomp Kansas State here. I mean,

1218
01:00:10,560 --> 01:00:12,520
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the ticket splits and the numbers all

1219
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:14,760
Speaker 2: I don't care. Lincoln Riley got beat by this team

1220
01:00:14,760 --> 01:00:16,520
Speaker 2: and he hasn't forgot it. By a first year coach

1221
01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 2: at Kansas State, I'm sure he hasn't forgot it, and

1222
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:21,480
Speaker 2: I'm sure this one should be over pretty quick unless

1223
01:00:21,480 --> 01:00:24,160
Speaker 2: they self destruct and have a bunch of turnovers. Spencer

1224
01:00:24,240 --> 01:00:27,240
Speaker 2: Rattler may have twenty eight up pretty quick here before halftime,

1225
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:30,200
Speaker 2: So for me, it's gonna be Oklahoma overdog.

1226
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:32,640
Speaker 3: Let's move on to third down and talk our favorite

1227
01:00:32,720 --> 01:00:38,160
Speaker 3: money line underdogs.

1228
01:00:37,000 --> 01:00:41,920
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1229
01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:43,920
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1230
01:00:44,720 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 3: For those that are new here or weren't around last week,

1231
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:50,960
Speaker 3: or didn't check out the action app, which you should have.

1232
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:53,760
Speaker 3: We hit ours last week. I'm two for two on

1233
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:57,760
Speaker 3: money line underdogs. One all acc underdog money line parlay.

1234
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:01,400
Speaker 3: Last week. You with Miami, Me with b See. This week,

1235
01:01:01,440 --> 01:01:03,240
Speaker 3: I'll tell you that I'm going with the Duke Blue

1236
01:01:03,240 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 3: Devils against Virginia. I think Bryce Perkins was just so

1237
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:09,920
Speaker 3: important for that Virginia team. It's still a bad offensive line.

1238
01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:13,680
Speaker 3: They lost a number of top receivers and backs. The

1239
01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:16,000
Speaker 3: defense I think was a little overrated. We saw at

1240
01:01:16,040 --> 01:01:20,840
Speaker 3: the end of last year, and Duke has been gashed

1241
01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:23,000
Speaker 3: in the passing game and now they're down both their

1242
01:01:23,040 --> 01:01:27,040
Speaker 3: starting cornerbacks. But I don't think Virginia is built to

1243
01:01:27,120 --> 01:01:30,120
Speaker 3: exploit that. The defensive line for Duke is really good.

1244
01:01:30,200 --> 01:01:32,240
Speaker 3: I think that they can get into the backfield, they

1245
01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:35,040
Speaker 3: can stop Virginia's running game. And Duke's just been really

1246
01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:39,120
Speaker 3: unlucky so far this year, you know, with turnovers and reds.

1247
01:01:39,200 --> 01:01:41,160
Speaker 3: I mean, I think they're dead last in the nation

1248
01:01:41,200 --> 01:01:44,840
Speaker 3: and turnover margin in red zone scoring, the scores that

1249
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:46,400
Speaker 3: they had. I talked about it when I had BC.

1250
01:01:46,560 --> 01:01:50,160
Speaker 3: I mean, the first half BC was extremely lucky. So

1251
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 3: I think Duke's do to get some bounces. They've alls

1252
01:01:51,840 --> 01:01:53,919
Speaker 3: had two games already and this will be the first

1253
01:01:53,960 --> 01:01:56,520
Speaker 3: game for Virginia, so I think an advantage there this

1254
01:01:57,240 --> 01:01:59,120
Speaker 3: is I like them as a money line underdog piece

1255
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 3: because there's a lot of variants here with Virginia, so

1256
01:02:02,000 --> 01:02:04,640
Speaker 3: it can either go all wrong or all right. So

1257
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:07,320
Speaker 3: I'll take the plus the Duke, which I think is

1258
01:02:07,320 --> 01:02:08,960
Speaker 3: plus five and a half right now, bet MGM. I'll

1259
01:02:08,960 --> 01:02:09,960
Speaker 3: take them on the money line.

1260
01:02:10,080 --> 01:02:12,080
Speaker 2: You you can't disagree with any of that. I'm gonna

1261
01:02:12,080 --> 01:02:14,680
Speaker 2: stick with South Carolina here. I love the passing attack.

1262
01:02:14,920 --> 01:02:18,040
Speaker 2: I'm not comfortable with Tennessee whatsoever. I think we get

1263
01:02:18,080 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 2: a different South Carolina offense. I think must champions seven

1264
01:02:20,880 --> 01:02:23,120
Speaker 2: and one lifetime as a head coach against Tennessee. So

1265
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 2: We're gonna roll with that game. Cox plus one. Not big,

1266
01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:28,280
Speaker 2: but at least it's an underdogar.

1267
01:02:28,720 --> 01:02:30,240
Speaker 3: There you have it. We will have a write up

1268
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:34,200
Speaker 3: for both on Actionnework dot com the Action Network app

1269
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:39,280
Speaker 3: on Friday night. Colm, thanks for joining me. Thanks to

1270
01:02:39,320 --> 01:02:44,240
Speaker 3: everyone for listening. As always, if you haven't subscribed, unsubscribe,

1271
01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:49,040
Speaker 3: subscribe again. Rate review They help us a ton, tell

1272
01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:52,520
Speaker 3: a friend, tell an enemy. We appreciate all of your support.

1273
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:56,440
Speaker 3: We will be back on Monday morning with the football

1274
01:02:56,480 --> 01:03:00,280
Speaker 3: weekend recap, hopefully recapping some winners. Don't forget about the

1275
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:05,240
Speaker 3: voicemail scream yell, cry about anything that you were wrong about,

1276
01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:12,200
Speaker 3: we were wrong about, you were right about? Oh, next season, UTEP, liberty,

1277
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:15,000
Speaker 3: all that. Get it in. Go to my Twitter profile.

1278
01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:18,680
Speaker 3: The voicemail number had stuck you two is in my profile.

1279
01:03:19,440 --> 01:03:22,160
Speaker 3: So we'll catch you all on Monday morning. Good luck

1280
01:03:22,200 --> 01:03:24,840
Speaker 3: with everything this weekend. We'll catch you all later. Cheers.

1281
01:03:25,440 --> 01:03:44,520
Speaker 3: So we're finished talking