WEBVTT - BOE's Andrew Bailey Talks AI Risks, Private Credit and Crypto

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news and thank you Governor

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<v Speaker 1>for joining us at this conference. We did have an

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity to hear from you and talk to you about

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<v Speaker 1>monetary policy this morning. But there's also been a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of conversation about AI and the potential impact on the

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<v Speaker 1>economy of AI, but also the cyber security risks associated

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<v Speaker 1>with new AI tools, and of course, most recently the

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<v Speaker 1>one we've been hearing about worrying about is Mythos. Can

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<v Speaker 1>I just confirm have UK banks got access to Mythos now?

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<v Speaker 1>Are they getting it on that trial basis?

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<v Speaker 2>So they don't have access to Mythos at the moment,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's that's an issue that is very important. And

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<v Speaker 2>by the way, this is a very important development. But

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<v Speaker 2>there are other models out there. I mean, Mythhos isn't

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<v Speaker 2>the only model out there. Obviously something of a race

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<v Speaker 2>going along to move the technology on and you know,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm very optimistic that they are either they either just

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<v Speaker 2>have or about to get. The major UK banks have

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<v Speaker 2>access to other models which will get them substantially.

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<v Speaker 1>But just going back to the mythosty because we had

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<v Speaker 1>a story In fact, I think the Anthropics UK and

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<v Speaker 1>Northern Europe's head the company that actually makes Mythos. They

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<v Speaker 1>told Bloomberg last month that it would be within a

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<v Speaker 1>week that UK bank chiefs were going to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to be part of the glass Wing project. So do

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<v Speaker 1>you know what happened?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there was a yes. So there has been a

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<v Speaker 2>glass Wing Phase two being talked about really for the

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<v Speaker 2>last six weeks or sober it hasn't happened yet, and

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<v Speaker 2>I think this has been somewhat caught up in the

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<v Speaker 2>process with the US administration.

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<v Speaker 1>So just reading between the lines, that sounds like Anthropic

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<v Speaker 1>had certainly told us on Bloomberg Television that it was

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<v Speaker 1>going to be just a matter of days or a

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<v Speaker 1>week or so, and it's the US administration that has potentially.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we're not party to that process, I think. To

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<v Speaker 2>be fair to Anthropic, I think they have been working

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<v Speaker 2>very hard. They want access to critical parties and it's

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<v Speaker 2>very important they're still, i think actively seeking that. Quite

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<v Speaker 2>why the process is a bit different from one company

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<v Speaker 2>to another, I'm afraid I can't explain to you. Obviously

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<v Speaker 2>from our point of view, given our concern about the

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<v Speaker 2>risks involved, and it's very important that there is access

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<v Speaker 2>and you know what I really want to see is

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<v Speaker 2>there is evolver a process very quickly where we can

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<v Speaker 2>have a sort of controlled but fast process to assess

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<v Speaker 2>these models. And frankly is to what my head of

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<v Speaker 2>IT Tea at the Bank of England told me, is

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<v Speaker 2>a ton of patching that then has to follow very

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<v Speaker 2>quickly to fix the things that these models are finding.

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<v Speaker 1>And I guess and as part of this conversation, I

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<v Speaker 1>guess we also think about. One of the conversations I

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<v Speaker 1>have when I get nervous is when they also talk

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<v Speaker 1>about the open source that the companies that are a

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<v Speaker 1>bit behind. The way they get users is to have

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<v Speaker 1>open source, which means if you discover that the so

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<v Speaker 1>called bad guys are using that technology to rob banks

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<v Speaker 1>or whatever it is, you're then not able to turn

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<v Speaker 1>it off in the way you can with the others.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, look, I'm not speaking as an expert in the subject.

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<v Speaker 2>I honestly have the whole Well, yeah, we try to

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<v Speaker 2>learn quickly. I think two things that I've taken from

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<v Speaker 2>the many discussions we've had. One is that I think

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<v Speaker 2>if you have kept your cyber defenses up and better prepared,

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<v Speaker 2>you will go into this process in a better place

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<v Speaker 2>than if you haven't. And we've worked very hard with

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<v Speaker 2>the UK banks over over many years, and we'll go

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<v Speaker 2>on doing so. Secondly, I think you're right on the

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<v Speaker 2>open source point now. I think one anthropic are certainly

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<v Speaker 2>saying is look, open source is more of a vulnerability

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<v Speaker 2>than closed and that's certainly a conclusion that they've drawn

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<v Speaker 2>from all the work they've done. Now, I mean the

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<v Speaker 2>two things I think however, one is there's a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of open source out there too. Again I'm not an

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<v Speaker 2>expert in this field. There's a lot of almost theological

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<v Speaker 2>you know, doctrine about open source and not open source,

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<v Speaker 2>which this is somewhat pushing against.

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, I think because we've tended to say there's

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<v Speaker 1>been a sort of inclination towards open But in this

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<v Speaker 1>case it feels like it's question, I mean, does it

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<v Speaker 1>highlight sort of overall the risks of I mean, going

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<v Speaker 1>back to the anthropic thing of having US owned companies

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<v Speaker 1>being absolutely dominant in this space and actually UK banks

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<v Speaker 1>you being in a position of kind of going begging

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<v Speaker 1>to the Americans to get access.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I don't take it position on where the sort

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<v Speaker 2>of in the sense that the companies are based that

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<v Speaker 2>are developing these things, because this is this is a

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<v Speaker 2>very very big development, and it's actually very important, and

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<v Speaker 2>there are many good things that will come out of this.

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<v Speaker 2>What I would say is that the spillovers from this

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<v Speaker 2>sort of some cyber risk are so big that we

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<v Speaker 2>can't just have a single sort of national approach towards

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<v Speaker 2>dealing with the consequences and mitigating it. There's got to

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<v Speaker 2>be an international approach to this. It's got to be

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<v Speaker 2>a sensible, sort of firmly based on international process. Because

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<v Speaker 2>I think any body of thought, well, i've dealt with

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<v Speaker 2>my banks, that's okay. I'm afraid that won't work because

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<v Speaker 2>they're all so heavily interconnected. We've got big payment systems,

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<v Speaker 2>big messaging systems, so that approach mon't work. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>As chair of the Financial Stability Board, you obviously involved

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<v Speaker 1>in lots of discussions around sort of global efforts or

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<v Speaker 1>financial stability and looking for risks. And one area again

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<v Speaker 1>where people are looking nervously at the US in particular

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<v Speaker 1>is the run up of private credit and whether there

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<v Speaker 1>should be more of a sort of a tougher approach

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<v Speaker 1>to at least having more reporting requirements or other things.

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<v Speaker 1>On private credit. You've highlighted that a lot of traditional

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<v Speaker 1>banks and institutions are now very much intertwined private credit.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that I mean, are you getting a hearing on

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<v Speaker 1>that from the US in terms of the risks of that?

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<v Speaker 2>Excuse me? Yes, I think first of all, private credit

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<v Speaker 2>is playing an important role. I think it's a good thing.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's come back to AI for a moment. We've got

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<v Speaker 2>a very big investment demand going on for it to

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<v Speaker 2>support the innovation in AI and in the tech sector

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<v Speaker 2>more broadly, and private private credit is an important part

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<v Speaker 2>of meeting that demand, and that's a good thing. What

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<v Speaker 2>I think, you know, I think we have to look

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<v Speaker 2>though carefully at it. The word private can be misleading

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<v Speaker 2>in some ways because it is not an island on

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<v Speaker 2>its own, and it is connected into the into the system,

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<v Speaker 2>into the broader system. A lot of the underpinning and

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<v Speaker 2>liquidity will come from the banking system. It is connected

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<v Speaker 2>into the banking system. That's not bad, that's inevitable. So

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<v Speaker 2>it's very important that we understand those those interconnections, how

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<v Speaker 2>they work. Are there points of sort of fragility in there?

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<v Speaker 2>That's why the Bank of England we're doing the second

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<v Speaker 2>system wide exploratory scenario to follow on the one we

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<v Speaker 2>did on hedge fund activity and major government bomb markets

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<v Speaker 2>a couple of years ago. So that's the first thing.

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<v Speaker 2>The second thing I think is important is, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think this is particularly true with the spread into sorts

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<v Speaker 2>of so called retail investment, is do the investors understand

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<v Speaker 2>the assets they've got and the characteristics of those assets,

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<v Speaker 2>because there are clearly, you know, there are some science

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<v Speaker 2>of strains in the market. I think they're often described

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<v Speaker 2>as idiosyncratic. Okay, every incident will have a different story

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<v Speaker 2>attached to it. But we are seeing some increase in requests,

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<v Speaker 2>quite a bigger increase in requests for outflows to take

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<v Speaker 2>the liquidity out, and I think how that plays out

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<v Speaker 2>will depend on what investors think they think well thought

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<v Speaker 2>they had relative to what they sort of now think

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<v Speaker 2>they've got.

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<v Speaker 1>Just to run through in another area where you've got

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<v Speaker 1>quite a big distinction now between the UK and the US,

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<v Speaker 1>or at least there has been. In the proposals you

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<v Speaker 1>had put forward was for stable coins and the basic

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<v Speaker 1>approach you'd had towards them. Are you now scrapping the

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<v Speaker 1>idea of capping the amount of stable coin that individuals

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<v Speaker 1>and businesses can Well.

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<v Speaker 2>We've altogether that for the UK and we'll be coming

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<v Speaker 2>up with our proposals shortly before the summer.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's still because it was supposed to be in June.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm expecting well before the sort of summer holiday season

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<v Speaker 2>takes off for us. We'll get that out.

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<v Speaker 1>What are you looking at the sort of looking at

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<v Speaker 1>total issuance sort of limits instead of that.

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<v Speaker 2>Would certainly be an option. Let's see where we get to.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the other thing that I would emphasize with

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<v Speaker 2>stable coins is to put the global back on again,

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<v Speaker 2>is that we are going to have to have sort

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<v Speaker 2>of what I call sort of rules of the game

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<v Speaker 2>as it were, for the use of stable coins cross border.

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<v Speaker 2>And yeah, we are going to be approaching the point

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<v Speaker 2>when we really do need to sort of get seriously

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<v Speaker 2>to work on that side of things, because that's going

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<v Speaker 2>to be important because again, you know what I always say,

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<v Speaker 2>what we want to get the benefit of is digital

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<v Speaker 2>technology and all the benefits that will bring with it

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<v Speaker 2>with it in the payment system. Now you can do

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<v Speaker 2>that in all sorts of ways. You can do it.

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<v Speaker 2>Three central back digital currency you can do it three

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<v Speaker 2>tokenized deposits, do it three stable coins. I don't think

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<v Speaker 2>we should be in any sense sort of you know,

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<v Speaker 2>biased in our approach to that, but there are going

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<v Speaker 2>to have to be sort of rules of the road,

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<v Speaker 2>as it were.

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<v Speaker 1>But even saying something similar to that in various ways,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, for a while, Yes, it doesn't seem like

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<v Speaker 1>there's any appetite on the other side of the Atlantic

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<v Speaker 1>to have rules of the road or really very many

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<v Speaker 1>limits on this part of the market at all. They

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<v Speaker 1>see it as a big combetitive advantage for the US.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, I mean, but I think, look, I think the

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<v Speaker 2>rest of the world is going to take a different

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<v Speaker 2>view on that.

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<v Speaker 1>And on the current the central bank digital currency. Again,

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<v Speaker 1>the US has now gone out of its way to

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<v Speaker 1>ban in the Genius Act, to ban the US the

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<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve from having producing a digital dollar a retail

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<v Speaker 1>Will there ever be a Bank of England will be

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<v Speaker 1>a digital pound.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I'm so. Look, we continue to work on it

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<v Speaker 2>to necess very important we do because it helps us

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<v Speaker 2>to understand that sort of the underlying technology. For me,

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<v Speaker 2>I know, I'm probably at the sort of noted skeptical

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<v Speaker 2>end that on this distribution is I think for me,

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<v Speaker 2>the question is this, do we need to create a

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<v Speaker 2>new form of central bank money to satisfy this need

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<v Speaker 2>to have digital technology and the payments system. And this

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<v Speaker 2>is the point we've discussed with the UK banks said, look,

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<v Speaker 2>you know most of the stock of money is in

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<v Speaker 2>your accounts. If you think about commercial bank money, they've

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<v Speaker 2>got most of the money. There's a stock of it

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<v Speaker 2>in the central bank. So I would say the natural

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<v Speaker 2>starting point here is to explore the tokenized deposits. That

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<v Speaker 2>is what is going on both domestically and internationally. UK

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<v Speaker 2>banks are looking at it because we know we got

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<v Speaker 2>ahead in the UK twenty years ago with faster payments.

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<v Speaker 2>Technology has moved on, We've got to move on and

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<v Speaker 2>then internationally and you may have seen the other day

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<v Speaker 2>there was news of a test of the so called

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<v Speaker 2>Project Agora, which to be is are running, which we're

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<v Speaker 2>involved in, which I think is a very good thing

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<v Speaker 2>because that gets to the other big issue, which is

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<v Speaker 2>how can we improve cross border payments? Because I'm I

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<v Speaker 2>always described that as somewhat of the land that time forgot.

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<v Speaker 1>I have to I'm putting you because I want this

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<v Speaker 1>one last question I've had. We've had some quite a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of the central bankers here have been sort of

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<v Speaker 1>somewhat bragging about the number of ALI tools they have

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<v Speaker 1>on their own computers and how they're using it. We're

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<v Speaker 1>obviously using AI. Our economist team using AI on on

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<v Speaker 1>what the Bank of England says, and we're judging whether

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<v Speaker 1>or not it's direction of travel. How are you using it?

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<v Speaker 2>We do, so we're we're growing in our use of it.

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<v Speaker 2>We use it obviously for data and data, we use

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<v Speaker 2>it for coding, speeding things up. But we do use

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<v Speaker 2>it in the n PC. We've we've experimented with your

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<v Speaker 2>staff have with modeling and also you know, we we

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<v Speaker 2>do start to use it to use things like language

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<v Speaker 2>models to say, well, if you write the NPC minutes

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<v Speaker 2>like this, how might it be received?

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<v Speaker 1>So this is terrible. So we're now going to have

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to have a sort of spiral because we

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<v Speaker 1>are using it. We have we have developed our own economists.

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<v Speaker 2>We've noted that, right.

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<v Speaker 1>So we've done, you've done yours. The whole thing is.

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<v Speaker 2>Against your mom right, Well, that's the way the world.

0:11:56.480 --> 0:11:58.000
<v Speaker 2>That's the way the world. But it's I mean, it's

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<v Speaker 2>helpful to us because it does occasionally for things up

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<v Speaker 2>and it says, look, if you do this, if you

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, if this is words not This is not

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<v Speaker 2>about voting or anything. This is about words. This is

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<v Speaker 2>how we received.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you very much,